Article

Hydro, wind and solar power as a base for a 100% renewable energy supply for South and Central America

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Abstract

Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-togas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination and 640 TWh LHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the leve-lized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWh LHV and 0.91 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system.

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... For renewable power systems at a continental scale, it has indeed been shown that building transmission to enable sharing of resources and trading of variations is a costeffective strategy. This has been shown in model studies of Europe [10], South-East Asia [11,12], South America [13] and North America [14,15]. In these studies, large-scale transmission, rather than large-scale storage, is shown to be the most cost-effective solution for systems dominated by variable renewables. ...
... In these studies, large-scale transmission, rather than large-scale storage, is shown to be the most cost-effective solution for systems dominated by variable renewables. In cases with high shares of variable renewable electricity, the option of large-scale transmission typically reduces system cost by 10-30%, compared to the cost when countries are isolated [13,[16][17][18]. ...
... We thus find that the effect from connecting continents has a much smaller effect on system cost than connecting individual countries in a continent-wide grid, which here was estimated to 15%, 21% and 27% for Mid-Asia, Europe and China, respectively. These results regarding cost reduction for country-tocontinent integration is in line with those in literature, which are in the range of 15-30% [13,[16][17][18]. Both of these results, the decrease in system cost from allowing for pan-continental transmission and the decreasing marginal benefit from integration, are in line with the preliminary results by Breyer et al. [24]. ...
... Estos estudios no relacionan los resultados entre las distintas escalas aplicadas. Algunos estudios [100][101][102][103] a nivel país sobre sistemas energéticos 100 % renovables para todos los usos finales de energía, han revelado que sería técnicamente factible a largo plazo, donde, todos concluyen que la electrificación, el acoplamiento de sectores y la producción de combustibles sustentables será esencial. Sin embargo, todavía hay una discusión sobre los caminos a seguir para lograr una transición hacia un sistema energético totalmente sostenible. ...
... The remaining share of electricity generation would be composed of about 6 % hydropower, 4 % wind power, 4 % geothermal and less than 1 % biopower and CSP. However, our results that are related to the renewable electricity generation shares differ with previous 100 % RE studies, where Chile has been included in a continental [101] or global [102,103] level, or the country was the study case [60,[65][66][67]. Despite the fact that the total final energy demand considered in our current work was higher than in each of these previous studies, only Haas et al. [65] showed a scenario where solar PV contribution was near 70 %. ...
... Moreover, they did not consider the whole country in their analyses. In the case of Barbosa et al. [101] and Aghahosseini et al. [104], they included PV prosumers in their analysis for the power sector. On the other hand, in the studies in which all sectors were included [60,102,103], Chile was considered to be one node. ...
Thesis
(In English Below) Obtener un sistema energético que contribuya a asegurar la estabilidad climática del planeta es uno de los desafíos más importantes de la primera mitad del siglo XXI. Con el propósito de contribuir en la búsqueda de vías que permitan superar la crisis climática global, pero desde acciones locales, y apelando a que la tecnología fotovoltaica (FV) cuenta con excelentes características para habilitar la transición energética que se necesita, esta tesis doctoral tiene como principal objetivo analizar, desde un enfoque global y local, el rol que la energía solar FV descentralizada podría jugar en la transición energética sostenible de un país y territorio específico. Para esto, se emplea como caso de estudio a Chile y particularmente, una de las regiones que lo conforma: la región de Aysén. Tanto Chile como la región de Aysén tienen aspectos que son un reflejo de la crisis global del Antropoceno, pero también cuentan con una gran oportunidad para implementar soluciones ejemplares basadas en sus enormes potenciales de energía renovable (ER). Para realizar dicho análisis se han considerado todos los sectores consumidores de energía y se utilizó una herramienta desarrollada por la Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), con la que se modelaron escenarios de transición energética hacia un sistema 100 % basado en ER para Chile, desde un enfoque global y local, donde, en el enfoque local se incluyó a la región de Aysén. Los resultados revelan que, tanto en Chile como en la región de Aysén, lograr un sistema energético 100% renovable para el año 2050 es técnicamente factible y económicamente viable. En ese año, dependiendo del enfoque y escala territorial, la contribución a la generación eléctrica por parte de la tecnología FV en su conjunto varía entre 39–86 % y, la contribución de la FV descentralizada varía entre 9–12 %; no obstante, la FV descentralizada aporta entre un 27–52 % de la electricidad final que es mayormente consumida en las ciudades por los sectores eléctrico, térmico y transporte. A su vez, la energía solar FV descentralizada crearía en Chile entre el 9–15 % de los empleos anuales directos durante el periodo de transición. Es decir, entre los años 2020 y 2050, el sector de la FV descentralizada crearía 174.274 empleos directos. Además, los resultados también revelan que Chile puede alcanzar la neutralidad en emisiones de carbono en el año 2030 y, se puede convertir en un país emisor negativo de gases de efecto invernadero a partir del año 2035. Todo esto sería posible utilizando menos del 10 % del potencial tecno-económico de ER disponible en este país. Tras los resultados del trabajo de investigación realizado en esta tesis doctoral, se concluye que la energía solar FV es un elemento vital en la transición energética sostenible, así como también, alcanzar un sistema energético totalmente desfosilizado es más importante que lograr la neutralidad en las emisiones de carbono. Esto último se debe a que una transición a nivel país hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable implicaría beneficios socio-ambientales y socioeconómicos locales, con impactos globales positivos que se necesitan con urgencia. Si Chile implementara una vía de transición hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable, no solo podría convertirse en un caso ejemplar en el avance hacia una economía post-combustibles fósiles, si no que también podría contribuir a la transición energética global: a través de la extracción limpia de materias primas clave (como lo son el cobre y el litio), y a través de la producción de combustibles y químicos basados en ER. En resumen, la tecnología FV puede contribuir en la mitigación del cambio climático y la reducción de los niveles de contaminación del aire en las ciudades, al tiempo que impulsa el crecimiento económico local; todo esto, de una manera más descentralizada y participativa. ///////////////////////////////////////// Obtaining an energy system that will help to ensure the climactic stability of the planet is one of the most important challenges of the first half of the 21st century. In order to contribute to the search for ways to overcome the global climate crisis, from local activities, and appealing to the fact that photovoltaic (PV) technology has excellent characteristics which could enable the energy transition that is needed, this doctoral thesis has as its main objective the analysis, from a global and local approach, the role that decentralized solar PV could play in the sustainable energy transition of a specific country and territory. For this purpose, Chile and one of its regions (the Aysén region) are used as a case study. Both Chile and the Aysén region have aspects that reflect the global crisis of the Anthropocene, but they also present a great opportunity to implement exemplary solutions, based on their enormous renewable energy (RE) potentials. To carry out this analysis, all energy-consuming sectors were considered. A tool developed by the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) was used, with which energy transition scenarios were modelled towards a 100% RE-based system for Chile, from a global and local approach. The Aysén region was included in the local approach. The results reveal that, both in Chile and in the Aysén region, achieving a 100% RE system by 2050 is technically feasible and economically viable. In that year, depending on the approach and territorial scale, the contribution to electricity generation by PV technology as a whole would vary between 39–86%. The contribution of decentralized PV would be between 9–12%. However, decentralized PV would contribute 27–52% of the final electricity that is mostly consumed in cities by the power, heat and transport sectors. In turn, decentralized solar PV would create between 9–15% of annual direct jobs in Chile during the transition period. In other words, between 2020 and 2050, the decentralized PV sector would create 174,274 direct jobs. In addition, the results also reveal that Chile could achieve carbon neutrality in 2030 and could become a negative greenhouse gas emitter by 2035. All of this would be possible by using less than 10% of the techno-economic potential of RE available in this country. From the results of the research work carried out in this doctoral thesis, it is concluded that solar PV is a vital element in the sustainable energy transition. We also find that achieving a fully defossilized energy system is more important than achieving carbon neutrality. The latter is due to the fact that a transition at the country level towards a 100% RE system would imply local socio-environmental and socio-economic benefits, with positive urgently needed global impacts. If Chile implements a transition path towards a 100% RE system, it could not only become an exemplary case in moving towards a post-fossil fuel economy, but could also contribute to the global energy transition through the clean extraction of key raw materials (such as copper and lithium), and through the production of RE-based fuels and chemicals. In summary, PV technology can contribute to mitigating climate change and reducing air pollution levels in cities, while boosting local economic growth, doing all of this in a more decentralized and participatory way.
... The majority model Europe, the United States, or other temperate regions, while continents with warmer climates have received less attention. There are, however, a few such studies: Aghahosseini et al. studied the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) [15], Barbosa et al. studied South and Central America [10] and, Blakers et al. studied Australia [30]. With the exception of [15], MENA has been modeled mainly as a potential provider of solar power for Europe [13,31,32]. ...
... Transmission expansion has shown to be essential to keep costs down in electricity systems dominated by VRE [4,[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]58,59], with previous studies showing a cost decrease of about 10-30% if continental grid connections is allowed [6,7,10,11,13,14,58,59]. However, massive transmission expansion may not be politically feasible or publicly acceptable [35,[40][41][42][43][44]. ...
... Transmission expansion has shown to be essential to keep costs down in electricity systems dominated by VRE [4,[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]58,59], with previous studies showing a cost decrease of about 10-30% if continental grid connections is allowed [6,7,10,11,13,14,58,59]. However, massive transmission expansion may not be politically feasible or publicly acceptable [35,[40][41][42][43][44]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Most studies that examine CO2-neutral, or near CO2-neutral, power systems by using energy system models investigate Europe or the United States, while similar studies for other regions are rare. In this paper, we focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where weather conditions, especially for solar, differ substantially from those in Europe. We use a green-field linear capacity expansion model with over-night investment to assess the effect on the system cost of (i) limiting/expanding the amount of land available for wind and solar farms, (ii) allowing for nuclear power and (iii) disallowing for international transmission. The assessment is done under three different cost regimes for solar PV and battery storage. First, we find that the amount of available land for wind and solar farms can have a significant impact on the system cost, with a cost increase of 0–50% as a result of reduced available land. In MENA, the impact on system cost from land availability is contingent on the PV and battery cost regime, while in Europe it is not. Second, allowing for nuclear power has a minor effect in MENA, while it may decrease the system cost in Europe by up to 20%. In Europe, the effect on system cost from allowing for nuclear power is highly dependent on the PV and battery cost regime. Third, disallowing for international transmission increases the system cost by up to 25% in both Europe and MENA, and the cost increase depends on the cost regime for PV and batteries. The impacts on system cost from these three controversial and policy-relevant factors in a decarbonized power system thus play out differently, depending on (i) the region and (ii) uncertain future investment costs for solar PV and storage. We conclude that a renewable power system in MENA is likely to be less costly than one in Europe, irrespective of future uncertainties regarding investment cost for PV and batteries, and policies surrounding nuclear power, transmission, and land available for wind- and solar farms. In MENA, the system cost varies between 42 and 96 $/MWh. In Europe, the system cost varies between 51 and 102 $/MWh.
... For renewable power systems at a continental scale, it has indeed been shown that building transmission to enable sharing of resources and trading of variations is a costeffective strategy. This has been shown in model studies of Europe [10], South-East Asia [11,12], South America [13] and North America [14,15]. In these studies, large-scale transmission, rather than large-scale storage, is shown to be the most cost-effective solution for systems dominated by variable renewables. ...
... In these studies, large-scale transmission, rather than large-scale storage, is shown to be the most cost-effective solution for systems dominated by variable renewables. In cases with high shares of variable renewable electricity, the option of large-scale transmission typically reduces system cost by 10-30%, compared to the cost when countries are isolated [13,[16][17][18]. ...
... We thus find that the effect from connecting continents has a much smaller effect on system cost than connecting individual countries in a continent-wide grid, which here was estimated to 15%, 21% and 27% for Mid-Asia, Europe and China, respectively. These results regarding cost reduction for country-tocontinent integration is in line with those in literature, which are in the range of 15-30% [13,[16][17][18]. Both of these results, the decrease in system cost from allowing for pan-continental transmission and the decreasing marginal benefit from integration, are in line with the preliminary results by Breyer et al. [24]. ...
Preprint
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Long distance transmission within continents has been shown to be one of the most important variation management strategies in renewable energy systems, where allowing for transmission expansion will reduce system cost by around 20%. In this paper, we test whether the system cost further decreases when transmission is extended to intercontinental connections. We analyze a Eurasian interconnection between China, Mid-Asia and Europe, using a capacity expansion model with hourly time resolution. The model is constrained by an increasingly tighter global cap on CO2 emissions in order to investigate the effect of different levels of reliance on variable sources. Our results show that a supergrid option decreases total system cost by a maximum of 5%, compared to continental grid integration. This maximum effect is achieved when (i) the generation is constrained to be made up almost entirely by renewables, (ii) the land available for VRE farms is relatively limited and the demand is relatively high and (iii) the cost for solar PV and storage is high. The importance of these two factors is explained by that a super grid allows for harnessing of remote wind-, solar- and hydro resources as well as management of variations, both of which are consequential only in cases where dispatchable resources are limited or very costly. As for the importance of the cost for storage, it represents a competing variation management option, and when it has low cost, it substitutes part of the role of the supergrid, which is to manage variations through long-distance trade. The cost decrease from a Eurasian supergrid was found to be between 0% and 5%, compared to the cost in the case of continental-scale grids. We conclude that the benefits of a supergrid from a techno-economic perspective are in most cases negligible, or modest at best.17 pages, f
... A quantitative analysis of the electric power generation of Ecuador was carried out. In Figure 3, it is observed that in 2017 83.88% of the production corresponds to hydroelectric generation, 14.4% to thermoelectric generation, 1.64% to non-conventional generation, and 0.08% to the imports from Colombia, and energy from Peru is stopped being imported [29][30][31][32]. ...
... The diagram in Figure 2 summarizes in general terms what planning for the orderly development of a new energy model could be. The year 2015 is taken as a base and evolves until a 100% renewable energy system is obtained in a 40-year period in which an ordered correlation can be established in 4 phases of 10 years [18,31]. ...
... In 2055, the management of a 100% renewable system begins and this must be supported by a system of measurement and data acquisition in real-time at the aggregate level (substation feeders) and disaggregated (at the user level). In addition to integrating the management of storage systems to optimize renewable generation [31]. ...
Article
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The pandemic scenario caused by Covid-19 generated negative impacts. Covid-19 has made it clear that our daily lives depend to a high degree on access to energy. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to promote new activities such as local food production, but also local energy capture. This article is an attempt to expose and quantify the benefits of a renewable energy transition in Ecuador post Covid-19 and post-oil. The generation, consumption, and reserves of oil in Ecuador were characterized, and the concept of energy transition was applied to evaluate the possibilities of integration of renewables, the progressive exit of thermal power plants, and future energy strategies. The year 2015 was taken as a basis and it was determined that energy use was 154.0 TWh / year, which corresponds to an end-user of approximately 147 TWh / year. The objective was to reduce this end-use demand to 80.0 TWh/year by 2055 through the integration of renewables and energy efficiency, for which 5 transition phases were planned until a 100% renewable system was obtained. It is concluded that the energy transition in Ecuador is technically possible and economically viable, without giving up the energy well-being that we currently enjoy. However, results show that even 100% renewable is not enough to face climate change.
... The possibility of extending electricity interconnections at the regional level has been addressed in several studies (Aghahosseini et al., 2019; Agostini et al., 2019;Barbosa et al., 2017;BID, 2017;Blanco, 2021;Sauma et al., 2011). In the case of South America, transmission lines are limited and are based on bilateral agreements, with only 19 projects built to date and three more under planning or study. ...
... Interconnections in South America Source: Liu (2015) and CIER. For the case of Central and South America, new HVAC/DC transmission expansions between sub-regions will enable a significant decrease in RE and storage installed capacities in the RE-based system Barbosa et al., 2017). As a general conclusion of these analyses, there is a significant potential for economic exchanges in energy production in Latin America. ...
... In this scenario, foreseen for 2035, 30% of the electricity consumption in South America can be supplied by solar energy plants located in the Atacama Desert with a total installed capacity of 200 GW; which represents less than 1% of the Chilean continental surface, not quite 5% of the available space in the Atacama Desert (Jimenez-Estevez et al., 2015) and about 10% of the total technical potential of solar PV. According to Barbosa et al. (2017), by 2030, Chile would be a net exporter of renewable electricity towards Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay, while the net electricity exchange with Argentina would be zero. ...
Technical Report
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This document seeks to contribute to society and its decision-makers with the best available scientific evidence on Chile’s Renewable Energy (RE) Export Potential and the opportunities and challenges that such potential opens for Chile’s commitment to carbon neutrality. It also aims to provide a useful input for the dialogues that the country will hold in the framework of COP26. A collaborative and interdisciplinary process was developed for this goal, involving 71 researchers and specialists. The work includes 299 references of scientific literature that support the different dimensions involved in the challenge of exporting renewable energy from Chile. It is confirmed that Chile has a considerable renewable energy potential that can be the basis for various exports. The different energy export options identified are renewable electricity using electrical transmission grids; hydrogen and derivatives (synthetic fuels, fertilizers, other chemical products) through pipelines or maritime transport; local production or manufacturing of products and services fed with RE; and knowledge and R&D capabilities. We conclude that the whole process of renewable energy exports should be framed within the Chilean policy for climate change and the current local context. Moreover, such a process must be consistent with the social and environmental principles set out in Chile’s NDCs, in the future Framework Law for Climate Change, in its Long-Term Climate Strategy, and in the mitigation and adaptation plans of the energy sector. For this purpose, recommendations were developed in the following areas: Art. 6 of the Paris Agreement, climate observatory, legitimacy and social licence, just climate action principle, energy literacy, new challenges for science and technology, partnerships, and improvements of the current legislation.
... To the knowledge of the authors, there are no scientific articles that outline a pathway for a 100% RE supply in all energy sectors for Bolivia. Previous analysis focuses primarily on the power sector only and avoid very high shares of RE (Candia et al., 2019;Peña Balderrama et al, 2017, or comprise a larger area for a target energy system, neither highlighting Bolivia much nor describing an energy transition pathway Barbosa et al., 2017). Additionally, several studies have demonstrated the viability of high RE penetration in Latin American countries including Brazil (Barbosa et al., 2016;Dranka and Ferreira, 2018;Gils et al., 2017;Simon et al., 2018), Chile (Haas et al., 2018;Osorio-Aravena et al., 2020), Mexico (Simon et al., 2018), and Colombia (Zapata et al., 2018). ...
... Candia et al. (2019) shows that high non-hydro renewable penetration is technically feasible as early as 2021 and 50% of total capacity being evenly distributed between solar PV and wind penetration provides savings in electricity cost even compared to Bolivia's subsidised natural gas price. Other research, as well as government projections, in (Barbosa et al., 2017;MHE, 2014;Peña Balderrama et al., 2018), show large shares of installed hydropower capacity, with more limited shares of solar PV and wind energy. Moreover, large hydropower installations planned by the Bolivian government is intended to produce export electricity, rather than for use within Bolivia (MHE, 2009). ...
... Bolivia's solar resource has such high abundance that installed solar PV capacity is only 2.3% of the upper limit, corresponding to 0.1% of Bolivia's total area. These results appear to differ somewhat from global and regional South American studies (Barbosa et al., 2017;Jacobson et al., 2017;L€ offler et al., 2017;Ram et al., 2019;Teske, 2019) for all energy sectors to achieve the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement (UNFCC, 2015a). ...
Article
Full-text available
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, sustainable energy supply will largely be achieved through renewable energies. Each country will have its own unique optimal pathway to transition to a fully sustainable system. This study demonstrates two such pathways for Bolivia that are both technically feasible and cost-competitive to a scenario without proper renewable energy targets, and significantly more cost-efficient than the current system. This transition for Bolivia would be driven by solar PV based electricity and high electrification across all energy sectors. Simulations performed using the LUT Energy System Transition model comprising 108 technology components show that electricity demand in Bolivia would rise from the present 12 TWh to 230 TWh in 2050, and electricity would comprise 82% of primary energy demand. The remaining 18% would then be covered by renewable heat and sustainable biomass resources. Solar PV sees massive increases in capacity from 0.13 GW in 2020 to a maximum of 113 GW in 2050, corresponding to 93% of electricity generation in 2050. In a high transmission scenario, levelised cost of energy reduces 27% during the transition. All scenarios studied see significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, with two scenarios demonstrating a Bolivian energy system with no greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. Further, such scenarios outline a sustainable and import-free supply of energy for Bolivia that will provide additional social benefits for the people of Bolivia.
... The variable nature of wind and solar power is a major constraint in this regard, especially in the context of relatively weak, low-inertia grids, the limiting factor being violations of grid stability requirements and associated power quality issues at high penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) [2]. Particular challenges may exist for states with isolated grids such as the Caribbean islands [4][5][6][7][8][9], for which neither spatial resource spreading [10] nor cross-border interconnections [11] are realistic ways of improving grid stability prospects. An obvious solution would be having sufficient dispatchable backup and/or storage capacity, but dispatchable generation is often fossil-fuel based [12], and battery storage costs -although declining -are still high [2,13]. ...
... The fourth category of studies takes this even further, focusing on large-scale interconnected grids for entire continents, but lacking results on individual hydro and VRE power plant level [11,[45][46][47]. An exception to this is a recent study on integrated hydro-solar-wind planning and its synergies with regional power pooling in West Africa [20], which integrated hourly-to-multiannual and plant-to-regional trends. ...
... However, in the future, overland transmission lines connecting Suriname to neighbouring countries/regions, notably Guyana, French Guiana, and the Brazilian states of Roraima and Amapá [73], could be a lever towards avoiding curtailment, allowing to export any renewable power not needed in Suriname. It could also help create a business case for Suriname around flexible export of hydroelectricity to other regions dealing with temporary generation shortfalls [11,20,73]. ...
Article
Full-text available
The Caribbean nation of Suriname has historically depended on a mix of hydropower and oil-based fossil fuels for meeting electricity needs. Continued reliance on fossil fuels poses challenges both for climate change mitigation and for energy security. This paper explores the potential for increasing the share of renewables in Suriname's electricity mix, with a special focus on the complementary role of existing hydropower and future wind power infrastructure. We show that these resources have great synergetic potential for displacing fossil fuel-based power generation. Flexible operation of the Afobaka hydropower plant, newly in full possession of Suriname, allows significant wind power integration without violating grid stability and associated power quality requirements. Considering the trade-off between displacing expensive fossil fuels and limiting wind power curtailment on Suriname's island-like grid, our results suggest that integrating wind power in the Surinamese electricity mix is economically advantageous up to a share of 20-30%, independently of near-term demand growth. These results have wider relevance for climate policy in various Caribbean countries and other island states with existing hydropower infrastructure and substantial wind/solar power potential, for which this study fills an important literature gap.
... The remaining share of electricity generation would be composed of about 6 % hydropower, 4 % wind power, 4 % geothermal and less than 1 % biopower and CSP. However, our results that are related to the renewable electricity generation shares differ with previous 100 % RE studies, where Chile has been included in a continental [101] or global [102,103] level, or the country was the study case [60,[65][66][67]. Despite the fact that the total final energy demand considered in our current work was higher than in each of these previous studies, only Haas et al. [65] showed a scenario where solar PV contribution was near 70 %. ...
... Moreover, they did not consider the whole country in their analyses. In the case of Barbosa et al. [101] and Aghahosseini et al. [104], they included PV prosumers in their analysis for the power sector. On the other hand, in the studies in which all sectors were included [60,102,103], Chile was considered to be one node. ...
Article
Full-text available
The aim of this research is to analyse the impact of renewable energy (RE) technologies and sector coupling via analysing the transition pathways towards a sustainable energy system in Chile. Four energy transition scenarios for the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors were assessed using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The current policy scenario was modelled and compared with three best policy scenarios. The results showed that the transition to a 100 % renewable-based energy system by 2050 is technically feasible. Further, such an energy system would be more cost-efficient than the current policy scenario to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The results also indicate that Chile could reach carbon neutrality by 2030 and become a negative greenhouse gas emitter country by 2035. In a 100 % renewable-based energy system, solar photovoltaics (PV) would contribute 86 % of electricity generation, which would represent 83 % of the total final energy demand for the year 2050. This would imply the use of about 10 % of the available techno-economic RE potential of the country. Three vital elements (high level of renewable electrification across all sectors, flexibility and RE-based fuel production) and three key enablers (solar PV, interconnection and full sectoral integration) were identified in order to transition to a fully sustainable energy system. Chile could contribute to the global sustainable energy transition and advance to the global post-fossil fuels economy through the clean extraction of key raw materials and RE-based fuels and chemicals production.
... However, acknowledging this fact the LUT Energy System Transition Model has been applied for many developing countries such as Bangladesh [31], India [32], Pakistan [33], Nepal and Bhutan [34] along with SAARC [35], the Philippines [36], Indonesia [37], and Southeast Asia [38], further countries in Africa such as Cameroon [39], Ethiopia [40], Ghana [41], Nigeria [42], West Africa [43], and sub-Saharan Africa [44,45]. Further, North Africa and Middle East [46] and Morocco [47], Algeria [47], Jordan [48] and Iran [49], as well as the South American countries of Bolivia [50] and Chile [51] and South America [52] have been explored. Developing countries are gaining significance in energy system analyses, as indicated for India [53], Indonesia [54], Ethiopia [55], South Africa [56], Jordan [57], Mexico [58] and Brazil [59] among many others. ...
Article
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This is a discussion and response to “Global 100% energy transition by 2050: A fiction in developing economies?” authored by Anthony Afful-Dadzie and published in Joule 5 (2021) 1634–1643. The preview has raised concerns around the feasibility of energy transitions towards 100% renewable energy and sustainable technologies in developing economies, after examining the article Bogdanov et al. (2021) in Afful-Dadzie (2021). Although, the author has rightly pointed out the disparity in the recent growth of renewable energy across the developed and developing countries of the world, along with highlighting a pertinent issue of ‘availability of finance’ for energy transitions across developing countries, the preview fails to contextualise the issue of financing energy transitions, in particular across developing countries, and has trivialised complex and cumbersome cost optimal energy transition modelling with vague and unscientific illustrations. In response, the authors of Bogdanov et al. (2021) have contextualised, clarified and confuted the issues raised in Afful-Dadzie (2021).
... Taking into account spatio-temporal energy potential data, together with heterogeneous land, network, and techno-economic constraints for effective renewable energy planning remains a challenging multi-dimensional problem permeated with uncertain data (RAMIREZ CAMARGO et al., 2018). The computational approaches are broadly divided into two research streams : 1) geographical information system (GIS) modeling with multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) (ALI, TAWEEKUN et al., 2019 ;CASTRO-SANTOS et al., 2019 ;OZDEMIR et al., 2018 ;AL GARNI et al., 2017), and 2) bottomup engineering approaches (HACHE et al., 2019 ;PFENNINGER et al., 2014 ;BARBOSA et al., 2017 ;RAMIREZ CAMARGO et al., 2018). GIS models with MCDM focus on providing suitability maps based on static resource assessment and expert-based decision criteria. ...
Thesis
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Les pénuries d'électricité sont un problème mondial majeur à cause de l'augmentation de la demande d'électricité, c'est pourquoi l’implémentation des énergies renouvelables(ER) est une solution alternative importante pour répondre à nos besoins en électricité, en réduisant les émissions de gaz à effet de serre pour lutter contre le changement climatique et d'atténuer la dépendance à l'égard des ressources en combustibles fossiles. Ainsi, la planification de la transition vers les ER est une stratégie essentielle que le réseau électrique soit connecté au nationale ou hors dans les zones rurales. La plupart des pays sont déjà commencé à renforcer leurs infrastructures énergétiques pour les alimenter à partir de ressources ER durables, mais les ressources potentielles limitées pourraient arrêter ce déploiement. L’intégration de différentes ressources d'ER au réseau électrique est un enjeu majeur pour assurer la stabilité et l’implémentation de systèmes d'ER à rendement nécessite à la prise de décision pour encourager d'investissement. Donc, la planification des ER doit être évaluée à partir des critères technico-économiques et socio-environnementaux. Cette thèse surligner le concept principal de la transition 100 % ER d’ici fin 2030 en Guyane française où il y a un enjeu dans l'élaboration du scénario énergétique d'ici 2030 et les centrales électriques actuelles ne peuvent pas se nourrir l'augmentation de la demande d'électricité avec des ressources limitées. En résumé, cette thèse répondra à la question : comment optimiser différents scénarios de production d'énergie en tenant compte des dimensions spatio-temporelles du problème et des données
... For this reason, state-of-the-art optimization modeling today combines long-term capacity expansion and short-term dispatch modeling in a combined co-optimization approach (Jenkins and Sepulveda, 2017). While such studies have analyzed power systems with hydro resources, this literature has not isolated the effects of hydro on the rest of the system (Schlachtberger et al., 2017;Liu et al., 2019;Brown et al., 2018b;Jacobson et al., 2017;Barbosa et al., 2017;Rodríguez-Sarasty et al., 2021). This is another gap addressed by our paper. ...
Article
This paper analyzes the role of hydropower reservoirs in the deep decarbonization of power systems. Extending previous work, this study models the impact of hydro reservoirs on optimal planning decisions. It further provides a more holistic assessment of the role and economic value of hydro reservoirs through the use of a detailed capacity expansion and dispatch model. Our model is parameterized based on the power system of New England, U.S. and the hydro-based system of Quebec, Canada. We find that expanding transmission access to hydro reservoirs reduces the need for fossil-fuel power plants that may otherwise be deployed to balance renewable intermittency. Our results show that hydro access can accelerate decarbonization by decreasing optimal gas plant capacity and generation. At levels of very deep decarbonization, reservoir hydro reduces the need for Carbon Capture and Storage. Our modeling shows how hydro reservoirs accomplish this by serving as both a short- and long-term energy storage resource. We further show that, by reducing the need for more expensive balancing technologies and by enabling a more efficient utilization of variable renewables, hydro access lowers the cost of decarbonization, and that this benefit grows non-linearly with the decarbonization target.
... So far, the solar PV capacity installed in Cuba does not exceed 163 MW (Jäger-Waldau, 2019). Although most countries of the Central America lie within the Sun Belt region of highest solar radiation, in general the installed solar PV capacity in the power sector is pretty low and varies from one country to another (De Souza et al., 2017;Madriz-Vargas et al., 2018;REN21, 2020). For example, the solar radiation in El Salvador is also remarkable and constant all over the country, ranging from 4 to 6 kWh/m 2 and reaching a solar PV capacity of 273 MW in 2019 (IRENA, 2020a). ...
Article
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Photovoltaic power generation capacity is increasing tremendously as a result of strong renewable energy policies and environmental concerns. In particular, the use of solar modules to generate electricity has grown significantly in Cuba recently. Based on the statistics published by the European Commission, the installed capacity of the photovoltaic modules increased from 15 to 100 MW in the timeframe of 2015–2019. In this context, efficiency is one of the most critical figures of merit of a photovoltaic module. It describes the ratio of the produced electrical power to the received solar irradiance. In this work, a widely-used model of efficiency is considered, and the incorporation of the pre-module losses due to light reflections is our original contribution. Experimental data recorded during eight months in a plant connected to the Cuban National Electric System are employed to examined and check the proposed approach. Our findings provide a key achievement in the estimation of the module efficiency within a system. In addition, based on the previous results, we perform a rough evaluation of the prevision of the photovoltaic system energy production using levelized cost of energy within the framework of the discounting method, showing a drastic drop by a factor two in the coming two decades.
... The flexibility of geographic scope and granularity also opens up a new set of research questions, where hypotheses formed mainly from studies in a US or European context may be more universally tested. For instance, are transmission extensions crucial to reducing cost for (near) 100% renewable power systems in all parts of the world, as suggested for Europe [3,40,51], MENA [49], South America [52]) and the USA [53]? Another question that could be analyzed is the impact of the model artifact introduced by the intra-region copperplate assumption in CEMs. ...
Article
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Energy system models are increasingly being used to explore scenarios with large shares of variable renewables. This requires input data of high spatial and temporal resolution and places a considerable preprocessing burden on the modeling team. Here we present a new code set with an open source license for automatic generation of input data for large-scale energy system models for arbitrary regions of the world, including sub-national regions, along with an associated generic capacity expansion model of the electricity system. We use ECMWF ERA5 global reanalysis data along with other public geospatial datasets to generate detailed supply curves and hourly capacity factors for solar photovoltaic power, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind power, and existing and future hydropower. Further, we use a machine learning approach to generate synthetic hourly electricity demand series that describe current demand, which we extend to future years using regional SSP scenarios. Finally, our code set automatically generates costs and losses for HVDC interconnections between neighboring regions. The usefulness of our approach is demonstrated by several different case studies based on input data generated by our code. We show that our model runs of a future European electricity system with high share of renewables are in line with results from more detailed models, despite our use of global datasets and synthetic demand.
... The economic model assesses the effective energy cost derived from PV, BSS and DGen and inverter, based on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) [33,34]. The LCOE is defined as the total costs (in $) of the system over its warranted lifetime divided by the total energy production (in kWh) across the same period [35], i.e. ...
Article
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This paper demonstrates the application of hybrid energy system (HES) that comprises of photovoltaic (PV) array, battery storage system (BSS) and stand-by diesel generator (DGen) to mitigate the problem of load shedding. The main work involves techno-economic modelling to optimize the size of HES such that the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is minimized. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to determine the optimum size of the components (PV, BSS). Simulations are performed in MATLAB using real dataset of irradiance, temperature and load shedding schedule of the small residential community situated in the city of Quetta, Pakistan. The LCOE for the HES system under study is 8.32 cents/kWh-which is lower than the conventional load shedding solution, namely the uninterruptable power supply (UPS) (13.06 cents/kWh) and diesel and generator system (29.19 cents/kWh). In fact, the LCOE of the HRES is lower than the grid electricity price of Pakistan (9.3 cents/kWh). Besides that, the HES alleviates the grid burden by 47.9% and 13.1% compared to the solution using the UPS and generator, respectively. The outcomes of the study suggests that HES is able to improve reliability and availability of electric power for regions that is affected by the load shedding issue.
... Several Latin American (LA) countries enjoy the benefits of abundant hydrologic resources that may be used to produce electricity from hydroelectric plants to satisfy a good part of their energy needs and, in principle, are less exposed to the consequences of CO2 pollution (Solarin and Ozturk, 2015; and De Barbosa et al., 2017). However, the urban development and rapid industrialization of many countries in the region (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia, among others) requires a fast energy-supply growth that can only be achieved through conventional sources, i.e., fossil fuels as petroleum derivatives, gas, and coal. ...
Article
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Esta investigación tiene como objetivo estudiar las interacciones dinámicas de largo plazo entre los cambios en las emisiones de CO2, el crecimiento económico, los cambios en el uso de energía y electricidad, y los cambios de la población rural a la urbana en América Latina (AL) durante el período 1990-2014. Un enfoque de datos panel VEC (VAR) con datos del Banco Mundial muestra que la primera y segunda diferencias de los logaritmos de la proporción de la población urbana con respecto a la población total explican: emisiones de CO2, PIB per cápita, consumo de energía, electricidad per cápita y el proceso de urbanización. Además, las emisiones de CO2 se cointegran con la primera diferencia con el logaritmo de la proporción de la población urbana. Los resultados empíricos no sugieren evidencia de la existencia de una curva ambiental de Kuznets. Tampoco es posible generalizar la naturaleza de las relaciones de crecimiento económico-consumo de energía-urbanización y emisiones de CO2 en diferentes latitudes. Una delimitación de este documento es la disponibilidad limitada de datos para varios países de AL, lo cual restringe el alcance del análisis econométrico
... It will also be environmentally sound because there will be no emissions. It will have a sustainable power generation system for usage, storage and distribution [39]. ...
Article
Desalination is the ultimate solution for solving global water crisis. The methods used for elimination of salts from seawater initially operated on fossil fuel energy that created pollution and untreated waste. Currently, desalination plants are being incorporated with renewable energy resources and nanotechnology to cut down this pollution and waste production. The renewable energies like solar, geothermal, wave energy, wind energy, hydrothermal and biomass are applied to run desalination plants. The use of these resources largely depends on the climate. However, nanomaterial integrated to boost efficiency of the system are independent of the environmental conditions. This review articles provides an overview of the recent developments in the desalination systems, different methods devised therein and types of nanomaterial used. Results of the critical evaluation expressed the solar energy to be the most promising source for providing requisite energy followed by nano-porous membranes made out of nanomaterial to be the most suitable to filter out the mineral content from the seawater input. There are some limitations, some of which are overlooked and others are settled by renewing the membranes material at regular intervals. The biggest advantage these methods signifies the facile operational mode and cost effectiveness.
... For solid waste, a gate fee of 100 €/t was assumed for all regions and years. Finally, geothermal energy potential was calculated according to the method described in (Barbosa, Bogdanov, Vainikka, & Breyer, 2017). ...
Article
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A cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100 % renewable energy was simulated for Finland. This transition was consistent with EU and international targets to achieve sstainability, while maintaining national competitiveness. Finland was divided into 7 regions that account for resource distribution and demand differences at high spatial and hourly time resolutions. Results indicate that levelised cost of electricity can decrease from 61 €/MWh in 2015 to 53 €/MWh in 2050 and that levelised cost of heat can decrease from 29 €/MWh to 20 €/MWh based on the assumptions used in this study. Transport sector costs decrease for most vehicle classes through electrification but increase marginally for classes that use bioenergy-based or sustainable synthetic fuels. Costs decrease through the adoption of flexible generation by several renewable energy technologies, intra-regional interconnections, and the use of low-cost energy storage solutions. Results show less need for combined heat and power plants as the electrification increases through sector integration. Individuals and groups can become prosumers of energy, motivated by a desire to contribute to climate action and making choices for lower cost, sustainable energy. Collectively, society can increase a sense of agency through lower exposure to risks. A 100 % renewable energy system can be a resilient, low cost and low risk option for the future.
... This can lead to a 12% increase in the overall costs of the energy system. The increase in low-carbon electricity production, as shown in this study, is likely to cause problems, with, for example, transmission grid planning (Barbosa et al., 2017), grid stability (Lap et al., 2020), and social acceptance (Brannstrom et al., 2017), and will lead to higher costs compared to energy systems with a larger share of bioenergy (Lap et al., 2020). ...
Article
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Land use change (LUC) related GHG emissions determine largely if bioenergy is a suitable option for climate change mitigation. This study assesses how LUC emissions influence demand for bioenergy to mitigate GHG emissions, and how this affects the energy mix, using Brazil as a case study. A methodological framework is applied linking bioenergy supply curves, with associated costs and spatially explicit LUC emissions, to a bottom-up energy system model. Furthermore, the influence of four key determining parameters is assessed; agricultural productivity, time horizon, natural succession, and the use of dynamic emission factors. Demand for new bioenergy plantations range from 0.5-6.7 EJ in 2050, and is avoided when its emission factor (EF) reaches above 15 kg CO2/GJbiomass. Dynamic EFs result in earlier and larger use of bioenergy. Static EFs attenuate all emissions evenly over time, resulting in relative high emissions around 2050 when the carbon budget is most stringent. This in contrast to dynamic EFs, having early high peaks because of clearance of natural vegetation, but relatively small long-term emissions when the carbon budget is most stringent. Exclusion of natural succession, in combination with spared agricultural land, results in a demand of 6.7 EJ, because of its low carbon penalty. Assuming that land is spared due to continues yield increase (which is the reason to include natural succession as and EF component), bypasses the fact that yield improvements (that make those lands available) take place because of demand for bioenergy. When low carbon biomass is limited available, increasing electrification is observed, leading to electric capacity increase of 62% (mainly wind and solar energy), and a 12% energy system costs increase. Inclusion of spatio-temporal explicit supply potential and LUC emissions, leads to improved bioenergy deployment pathways that come closer to the real situation as the dynamic nature of LUC emissions is included.
... In this way, we are analyzing four scenarios, namely 2030x, where x is a, b, c, and d, which are not proposed to compare its feasibility, cost or to consider the construction of massive infrastructure [20]. Indeed they are used as tools to identify the challenges the national grid is going to face and the ability of hydropower to keep filling the gap between the supply of intermittent sources and demand, which is fundamental to the reliability of the system. ...
Article
The demand for electricity and the need to replace fossil fuels with renewables have been growing steadily, and this transition will have significant implications for our world that are only beginning to be understood. Brazil is one important example of a big economy where the electricity is already supplied by renewables, such as hydro, wind, and biomass-fired thermal power. In this work, we investigated the electricity load curves in the last 20 years in Brazil, and four different scenarios for 2030 are proposed to evaluate the impact of increasing renewables in the national grid, on an hourly basis. The analysis shows that growing electricity demand and the expected reduction in the hydropower share will significantly affect the reliability of the national grid, due to higher peak load and also due to the intermittency of Solar and Wind. Without any gigawatt-scale hydropower projected for the near future, increasing the share of these renewables should push hydropower to operate hundreds of hours every year above typical peak power levels experienced in the past. To avoid or reduce the threat related to this trend one of our scenarios suggests that solar water heaters could be massively deployed in Brazil, which would positively impact the system reliability by reducing the electricity demand mostly at peak loads during early evenings.
... Another aspect is that is the limit of possible renewable energy an issue. It is known that the potential of renewables exceeds many times the energy needs of humankind; thus, it is theoretically possible to construct 100% renewable energy systems (e.g., Barbosa et al. 2017;Connoly et al. 2016). ...
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Purpose Renewable energy produced from wind turbines and solar photovoltaics (PV) has rapidly increased its share in global energy markets. At the same time, interest in producing hydrocarbons via power-to-X (PtX) approaches using renewables has grown as the technology has matured. However, there exist knowledge gaps related to environmental impacts of some PtX approaches. Power-to-food (PtF) application is one of those approaches. To evaluate the environmental impacts of different PtF approaches, life cycle assessment was performed. Methods The theoretical environmental potential of a novel concept of PtX technologies was investigated. Because PtX approaches have usually multiple technological solutions, such as the studied PtF application can have, several technological setups were chosen for the study. PtF application is seen as potentially being able to alleviate concerns about the sustainability of the global food sector, for example, as regards the land and water use impacts of food production. This study investigated four different environmental impact categories for microbial protein (MP) production via different technological setups of PtF from a cradle-to-gate perspective. The investigated impact categories include global warming potential, blue-water use, land use, and eutrophication. The research was carried out using a life cycle impact assessment method. Results and discussion The results for PtF processes were compared with the impacts of other MP production technologies and soybean production. The results indicate that significantly lower environmental impact can be achieved with PtF compared with the other protein production processes studied. The best-case PtF technology setups cause considerably lower land occupation, eutrophication, and blue-water consumption impacts compared with soybean production. However, the energy source used and the electricity-to-biomass efficiency of the bioreactor greatly affect the sustainability of the PtF approach. Some energy sources and technological choices result in higher environmental impacts than other MP and soybean production. When designing PtF production facilities, special attention should thus be given to the technology used. Conclusions With some qualifications, PtF can be considered an option for improving global food security at minimal environmental impact. If the MP via the introduced application substitutes the most harmful practices of production other protein sources, the saved resources could be used to, for example, mitigation purposes or to improve food security elsewhere. However, there still exist challenges, such as food safety-related issues, to be solved before PtF application can be used for commercial use.
... Moreover, the LAC region faces the difficult challenge of fostering economic development and reducing poverty, without increasing their reliance on fossil fuels. It is in an enviable position to accomplish this goal because it has been blessed by exceptional natural conditions to produce energy from renewable sources (Aghahosseini et al. 2019;Shahsavari and Akbari 2018;Barbosa et al. 2017;Griffith-Jones et al. 2017). It can also benefit from the steady decline of the wind and solar levelised costs of energy. ...
Article
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The impact of renewable energy consumption on reducing the outdoor air pollution death rate, in nineteen Latin America & the Caribbean countries, from 1990 to 2016, using the econometric technique of quantile regression for panel data, was researched. Results show that economic growth and fossil fuel consumption are positively related to CO2 emissions, while renewable energy consumption bears a negative relationship with it. Furthermore, fossil fuel consumption has a positive impact on the mortality rate and economic growth a negative one. The negative effect of renewable energy consumption on the mortality rate is only observable on the right tail of its distribution. The modelisation reveals two ways in which the consumption of renewable energy can reduce the outdoor air pollution death rates: (i) directly, by increasing renewable energies, and (i) indirectly because the increase in the consumption of renewable energies implies a decrease in the consumption of energy from fossil fuels. The phenomenon of increasing urbanisation is a point where the action of public policymakers is decisive for the reduction of outdoor air pollution death rates. Here, the question is not to reduce the level of urbanisation but to act on the “quality” of urbanisation, to make cities healthier. The research concludes that public policymakers must focus on intensifying the transition from fossil to renewable energies and improving the quality of cities.
... Renewable energies (RE) in general, and solar energy in particular, can contribute to mitigate climate change by reducing the GHG emissions while still satisfying the demand for energy (IPCC, 2011;Owusu & Asumadu-Sarkodie, 2016). Desert areas are excellent regions for both solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) plants due to their large solar irradiation (Köberle et al., 2015;Barbosa et al., 2017). The overall performance of these power plants can largely be impacted by dust accumulation or soiling on the reflecting surfaces (Al-Addous et al., 2019) and/or solar radiation attenuation (Polo and Estalayo, 2015;del Hoyo et al, 2020). ...
Preprint
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The risks associated with airborne soil particles (dust) are often underappreciated, and the gap between the knowledge pool and public awareness can be costly for society. This study reviews the emission, chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of dust and its effects on human and environmental health and safety in the Americas. American dust originates from both local sources and long-range transport from Africa and Asia. Dust properties, trends and interactions with criteria air pollutants are summarized. Human exposure to dust has been associated with adverse health effects, including asthma, fungal infections, and premature death. One of the most striking effects of dust is Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever), an infection caused by inhaling soil-dwelling fungi unique to this region. Dust affects environmental health through providing nutrients to phytoplankton, contaminating water supply and food, spreading crop and marine pathogens, infecting domestic and wild animals, transporting heavy metals and radionuclides, and reducing solar power generation. Dust is also a well-documented safety hazard to road transportation, aviation, and marine navigation, in particular in the southwestern United States where blowing dust is one of the deadliest weather hazards. To mitigate these harmful effects, coordinated regional and international efforts are needed to enhance dust observations and prediction capabilities (especially in South America), implement soil conservation measures, design specific dust mitigation projects for transportation, and conduct surveillance for Valley fever and other diseases. While focusing on the Americas, many of the dust effects found in this region also exist in other parts of the world.
... Although studies on the impact of investments on renewable electric power plants on the economy have been available (Denholm et al., 2012; Implications of East Asia electricity 257 Barbosa et al., 2017;Lilliestam et al., 2018), there is much less literature on the impacts of regional electricity market integration on the economy and the environment. Dahlke (2020) assesses the impacts of integrating energy market on energy prices and emissions in the Western US, and Newbery et al. (2016) analyze the impact of electricity market integration on the efficiency of the electricity trading system in European. ...
... In this way, we are analyzing four scenarios, namely 2030x, where x is a,b,c, and d, which are not proposed to compare its feasibility, cost or to consider the construction of massive infrastructure [20]. Indeed they are used as tools to identify the challenges the national grid is going to face and the ability of hydropower to keep filling the gap between the supply of intermittent sources and demand, which is fundamental to the reliability of the system. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
The demand for electricity and the need to replace fossil fuels by renewables have been growing steadily, and this transition will have significant implications to our world that are only beginning to be understood. Brazil is one important example of a big economy where the electricity is already supplied by renewables, such as hydro, wind and biomass-fired thermal power. In this work we investigated the electricity load curves in the last 20 years in Brazil, and four different scenarios for 2030 are proposed in order to evaluate the impact of increasing renewables in the national grid, at an hourly basis. The analysis shows that growing electricity demand and the expected reduction in the hydropower share will significantly increase the reliability of the national grid, due to higher peak load and also due to the intermittency of Solar and Wind. Without any gigawatt scale hydropower projected for the near future, increasing the share of these renewables should push hydropower to operate hundreds of hours every year above typical peak power levels experienced in the past. In order to avoid or reduce the threat related to this trend one of our scenarios suggests that solar water heaters could be massively deployed in Brazil, what would positively impact the system reliability by reducing the electricity demand mostly at peak loads during early evenings.
Article
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To date, roadmaps and policies for transitioning from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy have been developed for nations, provinces, states, cities, and towns in order to address air pollution, global warming, and energy insecurity. However, neither roadmaps nor policies have been developed for large metropolitan areas (aggregations of towns and cities), including megacities (metropolitan areas with populations above 10 million). This study bridges that gap by developing roadmaps to transition 74 metropolitan areas worldwide, including 30 megacities, to 100% wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) energy and storage for all energy sectors by no later than 2050, with at least 80% by 2030. Among all metropolitan areas examined, the full transition may reduce 2050 annual energy costs by 61.1% (from $2.2 to $0.86 trillion/yr in 2013 USD) and social costs (energy plus air pollution plus climate costs) by 89.6% (from $8.3 to $0.86 trillion/yr). The large energy cost reduction is due to the 57.1% lower end-used energy requirements and the 9% lower cost per unit energy with WWS. The air pollution cost reduction of ~$2.6 (1.5–4.6) trillion/yr is due mostly to the saving of 408,000 (322,000–506,000) lives/yr with WWS. Global climate cost savings due to WWS are ~$3.5 (2.0–7.5) trillion/yr (2013 USD). The transition may also create ~1.4 million more long-term, full-time jobs than lost. Thus, moving to 100% clean, renewable energy and storage for all purposes in metropolitan areas can result in significant economic, health, climate, and job benefits.
Article
The world faces two pressing challenges: on the one hand, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C; on the other hand, enabling socio-economic development that is inclusive and equitable. These two challenges should not be seen as conflicting and should be addressed simultaneously. This is particularly true as we look forward to a post-COVID recovery efforts. The solution may partially rest on the transition to sustainable and renewable energy systems. The energy transition comprises presumptions of energy efficiency, affordability, reliability, and energy independence. And in developing countries, in particular, it also entails expectations of economic development, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability. Since most of the remaining renewable energy potential lies in developing countries, these countries will play a crucial role. This paper reviews the status of the energy transition in the Global South, by surveying scientific and grey literature and synthesising the wide scope of alternatives available to accelerate and enhance the transition to renewable energy systems. The alternatives and approaches found are encapsulated in three dimensions: technology, society, and policy. A roadmap presents the potential synergies that could be established across dimensions and sectors to aid the energy transition in developing countries. Concisely, the transition can be achieved by adopting and implementing technologies already commercially-available that improve the efficiency, affordability, and reliability of energy systems, by redefining and reclaiming citizens’ participation in energy planning and policy-making, and by democratically restructuring institutions and monitoring to boost transparency, accountability, and trust.
Chapter
100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything - by Mark Z Jacobson October 2020
Article
The energy sector has a vital role in climate change mitigation. In Brazil, the electricity generation sector is strongly dependent on hydropower generation, but thermoelectricity contribution has increased leading to a more carbon-intensive electricity mix. This trend will be aggravated with the expected significant increase in the electricity demand until 2050 and with the potential limitation of hydropower generation expansion due to environmental constraints. The extent of the role of solar power to overcome these challenges in the future has been hidden by energy modelling assumptions. A review on how solar energy has been considered in different models, was performed. The research further assessed the relevance of assumptions by developing an optimization model to explore the cost-effectiveness of solar electricity large-scale deployment up to 2050. The work found that most published solar energy assessments based on long-term energy modelling for Brazil currently are not updated regarding several assumptions, leading to models results where solar appears with a marginal role. The energy modeling exercise shows solar PV is cost-effective for Brazil, providing more than 36% of total electricity in 2050. This is a different conclusion from the energy and power modeling exercises conducted until now, where solar deployment has been underestimated.
Thesis
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There are undeniable signs from all over the world demonstrating that climate change is already upon us. Numerous scientific studies have warned of dire consequences should humankind fail to keep average global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5°C. Drastic measures to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from all economic activities across the world are essential. Major emphasis has been on the energy sector, which contributes the bulk of GHG emissions. Inevitably, energy scenarios describing future transition pathways towards low, and zero emissions energy systems are commonly proposed as mitigation strategies. However, there is growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood and analysed not only from technical and economical perspectives but also from a social perspective. This research explores the broader ramifications of a global energy transition from various dimensions: costs and externalities of energy production, democratisation of future energy systems and the role of prosumers, employment creation during energy transitions at the global, regional and national levels and the effects of air pollution during energy transitions across the world. This research builds on fundamental techno-economic principles of energy systems and relies firmly on a cost driven rationale for determining cost optimal energy system transition pathways. Techno-economic analyses of energy transitions around the world are executed with the LUT Energy System Transition Model, while the corresponding socioeconomic aspects are expressed in terms of levelised cost of electricity, cost effective development of prosumers, job creation, and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions along with air pollution. Findings during the course of this original research involved novel assessments of the levelised cost of electricity encompassing externalities across G20 countries, cost optimal prosumer modelling across the world, estimates of job creation potential of various renewables, storage and power-to-X technologies including the production of green hydrogen and e-fuels during global, regional and national energy transitions. The novel research methods and insights are published in several articles and presented in this thesis, which highlight robust socioeconomic benefits of transitioning the current fossil fuels dominated global energy system towards renewables complemented by storage and flexible power-to-X solutions, resulting in near zero emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These research findings and insights have significant relevance to stakeholders across the energy landscape and present a compelling case for the rapid transformation of energy systems across the world. However, the research does have limitations and is based on energy transition pathways that are inherent with uncertainties and some socioeconomic challenges. Nonetheless, actions to enhance and accelerate the ongoing energy transition across the world must be prioritised, if not for technical feasibility or economic viability, but for the social wellbeing of human society and future generations.
Article
Long distance transmission within continents has been shown to be one of the most effective variation management strategies to reduce the cost of renewable energy systems. In this paper, we test whether the system cost further decreases when transmission is extended to intercontinental connections. We analyze a Eurasian interconnection between China, Mid-Asia and Europe, using a capacity expansion model with hourly time resolution. Our modelling results suggestthat a supergrid option decreases total system cost by a maximum of 5%, compared to continental grid integration. The maximum cost reductionis achieved when (i) the generation is constrained to be made up almost entirely by renewables, (ii) the land available for VRE farms is relatively limited and the demand is relatively high and (iii) the cost for solar PV and storage is high. This is explained by that a super grid allows for harnessing of remote wind-, solar- and hydro resources demand centers. As for low-cost storage, it represents a competing variation management option, and may substitute part of the role of the supergrid, which is to manage variations through long-distance trade. We conclude that the benefits of a supergrid from a techno-economic perspective are in most cases negligible, or modest at best.
Chapter
Countering the ecological and biological impact of more than a century of use of fossil fuels has allowed the emerging and development of alternative sources of energy, this dealing with greenhouse gas emission reduction, such as CO2 or CH4. The present work arose with the purpose of spotlight and identifies the main environmental, ecological, and toxicological impacts derived during the development and implementation of methods for production of alternative energies. To unfold this investigation, a screening of available scientific information was carried out on public databases such as Scopus, Science Direct, and PubMed, with the key words for query: alternative energy, environmental, and ecotoxicological impact. As a result of this scrutiny process, it was possible to identify differential impacts associated with the production manners of alternative or sustainable energy: wave power energy would potentially contribute to the coastal erosion affecting the biodiversity of benthic or plankton; wind power energy issues are related to the negative impact on biodiversity of birds and bats as well as human populations; and photovoltaic energy negatively impacts on edaphic fauna and vegetation cover, as well as indirect ecotoxicological effects associated with the disposal of heavy metal residues. Knowing and unveiling the environmental and ecotoxicological non-positive effects associated with the implementation of alternative energy production projects is essential to prevent these impacts in future projects of the same nature, especially in Latin America, which is the continent where there are areas of high vulnerability for biodiversity, affecting the impact on ecosystems at a regional and global level.
Thesis
Le développement croissant des parcs éoliens sur le territoire français est l'un des leviers majeurs en faveur de l'intégration des énergies renouvelables dans le mixte énergétique national. Cependant, ce dernier se heurte à des problématiques de maintenabilité et des incertitudes sur la durée de vie, d’autant plus que la gestion de fin de vie de ces parcs n’est qu’à ses débuts. Actuellement, peu de travaux traitent de l'évaluation de la performance globale (dont performance technologique et environnementale) de ces systèmes.Ce projet de thèse se propose d'améliorer et de développer des méthodes d'évaluation de la performance technologique (sûreté de fonctionnement) et d’évaluer le gisement de fin de vie de l’éolien dans la région Champagne-Ardenne. Il s'agit, d'une part, de réaliser une étude de sûreté de fonctionnement du système éolien avec un focus sur la fiabilité et la maintenabilité du système en prenant en compte l'interdépendance de ses composants. En effet, cette dernière constitue un levier d'amélioration. D'autre part, l'évaluation de l'impact environnemental de ces installations est nécessaire afin de déterminer des critères de choix technologique et de topologie. Dans ce travail, la MFA et l'ACV comme support à l'écoconception, ont permis de quantifier le gisement en fin de vie, de réduire les impacts environnementaux durant toutes les phases de vie du système et améliorer la durabilité de ce dernier. De plus, des données de la région sont utilisées pour illustrer les résultats et développer des modèles économiques.
Chapter
Freshwater production costs generally depend on site-specific conditions such as local energy costs, level of freshwater quality required, and concentration of constituents in feed water. The latter is a particularly important factor in desalination system design and cost. A competitive cost for freshwater production using renewable energy–driven seawater desalination systems can be attained in the case of optimum designs and proper selection and utilization of renewable energy sources available in a region, so as to maximize the synergy between diverse resources. With efficiency improvements and other advances in renewable energy technologies, the costs associated with such systems have decreased notably in recent years. In this chapter, an overview of desalination economics is provided. Then an economic study of freshwater production is presented based on a technoeconomic analysis of desalination systems and renewable energy technologies. From the technoeconomic analysis, the cost of water produced from desalination facilities and the cost of energy from renewable energy technologies are predicted for systems, today and in the future. Next, exergy concepts are related to economic principles through exergoeconomic analysis, and suggestions for reducing the overall costs of freshwater and electricity are developed. Through exergoeconomic analyses of renewable energy–driven desalination systems, the proper allocation of economic resources can be determined to optimize the design and operation of such systems. Finally, an exergo-environmental analysis using life cycle assessment is presented to evaluate the environmental impact of desalination systems using renewable and nonrenewable energy.
Article
Buildings are one of the most important energy consumers worldwide and heating requirements are usually achieved using fossil fuels. This situation poses a risk to achieving the objectives for emissions reduction in existing buildings and electrification, based on heat pumps. It is one of the most feasible solutions to achieve emissions reduction objectives. Current research analyzes the potential for decarbonization of heat pumps and uses the Spanish scenario as a novel case study, where 8.5% of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere came from the residential sector, with 66% of the energy consumption associated with cooling and heating. Using EnergyPlan the potential of decarbonization using heat pumps or heating systems in existing buildings and installing this technology in new buildings is analyzed. Results show a reduction of 8.43% in total emissions and prove that the proposed methodology can be extended worldwide as a solution to reduce emissions and improve energy efficiency in existent heating systems in buildings. Moreover, the integration of electrical climatization systems allows increasing the renewable electricity share in the grid or electrical vehicles integration, among others.
Article
Establishing sustainable and economical pathways for the deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) is essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing energy security. However, due to VRE power output fluctuations, high shares of VRE are associated with increases in surplus power generation, which increases the cost of power supply. This paper examines the effects of power fluctuation mitigation measures on the integration of high shares of VRE in power supply systems. The paper takes a systematic approach to evaluate the effects of the geographical distribution of VRE locations, the increase in transmission capacity, and the introduction of large-scale battery storage while increasing the VRE share. The methodology used in this analysis is a linear programming-based power supply mix model which was developed to optimize installed capacities and operation patterns of a power supply system with geographically distributed VRE locations by minimizing the total cost of power supply. The developed methodology is applied to the power supply system of Hokkaido, Japan, as a case study. The results demonstrate that VRE shares of up to 40 % can be achieved by geographically distributing the VRE locations with no increase in the total cost of the power supply. This is because the geographical distribution of VRE locations suppresses the increase in surplus power generation. Further, achieving 40 % to 60 % VRE shares only requires an increase in the power transmission capacity. However, for higher VRE shares from 60 % to 80 %, a combination of the geographical distribution of VRE locations, transmission capacity increase, and the introduction of power storage are required to effectively minimize the amount of surplus power generated.
Article
This research evaluates the South American Electric Energy System and its features related to the inclusion of renewable energies into the transition processes to leave fossil fuel-based energy systems behind. Analysis of the Ecuadorian case is a novel approach because in the first instance its matrix was based on the use of fossil fuels, with dire consequences of pollution, especially in the Amazon. Interest is growing in terms of economic, legal and social renewal, leaving behind the rapidly depleting oil systems which have been a polluting source. This research presents a novel analysis of the state of the Ecuadorian electricity system and after a flexible analysis in Energyplan, proposes the feasible renewable energy sources and their shares to guarantee the new demand in 2050 and an Ecuadorian 100% renewable electricity generation system, having a positive impact on the monetary, increasing production levels and improving the quality of life of its citizens. Installed power by 2050 is expected to be 20 GW and will require an annual production of 72.24 TWh. Hydro (6.02 GW), solar PV (5.7 GW) and wind (5.61 GW) will have the most impact on the Ecuadorian energy matrix. The average production cost of 1 MWh will be approximately 18 US cents.
Article
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Most post-construction fatality monitoring (PCFM) studies to date have focused on North America and Europe, and this information has been used to assess the impacts of large-scale wind energy on birds and bats. A comprehensive review of wind-wildlife fatality information is still lacking for Latin America; however, given the current installed capacity and the projected increase of wind energy production across Latin America, it is important to fill in the knowledge gap on impacts to wildlife. To provide a current summary of known impacts to birds and bats in Latin America and to identify gaps on this important information, we compiled, reviewed, and synthesized bird and bat fatality information at wind energy projects in the region. Our literature search resulted in 10 references relevant to the scope of this review, six of which provided number of fatalities by species and the type of PCFM search being conducted, meeting our criteria for inclusion in fatality summaries. From this pool, we found that Passerines composed the majority of bird fatalities, with no Threatened bird species reported. The bat family Molossidae composed the majority of bat fatalities, with one Threatened bat species reported. Our review of all studies and focused assessment of only those studies with fatality summaries indicated differences in the amount of information and level of detail related to bird and bat fatalities at wind energy projects in Latin America. Due to the taxon-specific nature of collision risk with wind turbines for birds and bats, it is difficult to make a general impact assessment of wind energy development on birds and bats in Latin America, especially given the limited information available. However, this summary can be used as a starting point to inform conservation efforts aiming at avoiding, minimizing, and mitigating impacts of wind energy development on birds and bats and future, standardized results would enhance our ability to do so.
Article
This study focused on an industrial area, i.e., Champagne-Ardenne, France, containing 25 wind turbines with a lifespan of 25 years. We assessed the economic situation from the beginning of the operation of this plant to the end of its lifetime using the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) indicator, which assesses the average cost of energy production during a project. We also considered the environmental cost associated with the wind sector. The objective of this study was to explore the effects of all parameters, including the calculation of the LCOE indicator, to provide decision-makers and local authorities with optimization solutions. We also developed an optimization algorithm to provide the best combination of all LCOE parameters for producing sustainable energy at the lowest cost.
Thesis
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An important transition is underway across the world: we are relying less and less on fossil fuels to power our homes, offices, and industries, and more and more on inexhaustible sources like solar and wind power. But the sun does not always shine and the winds do not always blow. For this reason, we need to design our future electricity systems in a smart way, so that solar and wind power do not cause problems to security of supply. In Africa, where security of supply would require massively expanding currently inadequate power grids in the first place (or having a power grid at all, in some cases), this might seem to be a much larger challenge than elsewhere. However, as argued in this thesis, this also presents an opportunity for the African continent. An opportunity to contribute to sustainable development by reducing dependence on large hydropower. An opportunity to leapfrog the fossil fuel-based electricity grids of the "Global North". And an opportunity to become a global frontrunner and role model for large-scale renewable electricity generation.
Article
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This study innovatively combines a set of methods to provide a new way to assess the economic potential of pumped hydro energy storage. It first provides a method based on geographic information systems to study the potential of pumped-hydro for different topologies. Second, using cost estimates for each identified site, cost-potential curves are derived. Finally, these curves are used for planning a fully renewable system to assess their impact on investment recommendations. Applications to Chile, Peru, and Bolivia show the usability of the methods. Over 450 pumped-hydro locations are identified, totaling around 20 TWh (1600 GW of installed capacity with 12 h of storage). These numbers exceed by 20-fold the projected daily energy demand of the corresponding countries. When taking into account investment costs, most locations are cheaper than current Li-ion batteries, but only some are expected to remain competitive. When using the resulting cost-potential curves to design a future energy system, the planning tool recommends about 1.6 and 5.0 times more pumped-hydro storage compared to using average values and literature values, respectively. These differences underline the significance of the found cost curves. These findings are relevant to the energy planning community, policymakers, and energy companies.
Article
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One of the biggest concerns of the present century is energy security and climate change. Further, studies suggest that there would be a huge lack of fossil fuels in near future. Moreover, in terms of cleaner production, the most popular and practiced way of power generation is renewable energy sources which are intermittent in nature, require large land area, and also dependent on geographic positions and climatic conditions. Besides, nuclear energy is also having some limitations including government policies and public apprehensions. To overcome these hurdles, these two carbon-free technologies can be integrated and form a nuclear-renewable hybrid energy system (N-R-HES). Literature related to the proposed systems is extremely rare and the systems are not yet well developed. Keeping that into concern, this paper discusses the operation, status, prospects, and benefits of N-R-HES. Various possible integration techniques along with their operation are discussed in detail. Moreover, six aspects of interconnections are identified: electrical, thermal, chemical, mechanical, hydrogen, and information. The paper also discusses the reactor licensing, permitting procedures along the different benefits of N-R-HES. Additionally, research limitations and needs are identified for further exploration of the topic throughout the paper.
Thesis
Global warming is one of the main effects of humanmade climate change. It is common sense that direct emission-free renewable energy must be integrated on a large scale into our energy systems to limit the earth’s temperature rise. The integration of fluctuating renewable electricity sources presents a major challenge for future energy systems as the residual load curve will be characterized by high fluctuations, significant ramp rates and the need for peak power coverage. Utility-scale energy storage technologies are likely to be required to ensure a reliable and affordable energy supply. In order to achieve deep decarbonization all sectors (electricity, heat, transport, etc.) must be considered. The heating and cooling sector is seen as an important lever to balance fluctuations and increase the share of renewable energy in all sectors. For this reason, hybrid energy storage is introduced within this work. It is a technological option at the intersection of multiple sectors by combining thermal and/or thermo-mechanical and/or chemical conversion and energy storage units to large-scale energy storage solutions. In contrast to power to power energy storages like batteries, hybrid energy storages make it possible to address demands of the electric and heating/cooling sector. Various technologies for energy storage can be found in literature. These technologies are sorted if they already fulfill the hybrid definition made within this work or if they at least could be used in a hybrid way. For this reason, a strategy for hybridization is defined. Different hybrid or hybridizable energy storages based on different physical mechanisms are the fundamental base of this work. They all differ in technical maturity and the underlying performance estimations typically rely on varying boundary conditions and assumptions. This makes storage parameters in terms of roundtrip efficiencies and specific cost highly incomparable. By combining thermodynamic calculations with cost estimation, a comparable database of storage parameters in terms of roundtrip efficiencies and cost data is created. Technologies proposed in literature also serve as pool for modifications. Rapidly changing boundary conditions in energy systems worldwide create unclear requirements towards energy storage technologies. Sometimes, an investment cost-optimized storage could be better than an efficiency-optimized one and vice versa. In order to assess the potential of hybrid energy storages, energy system design is applied. The focus is on urban energy systems since the extraction of heat and cold from hybrid storages can address district heating and cooling systems. For this reason, a generic model for the design and optimization of urban energy systems is developed. Based on an archetype approach, the cities Barcelona, Jakarta, Buenos Aires, Toronto, Dubai and Hamburg are selected – all with different loads (electricity and heating, electricity and cooling or electricity and heating and cooling) and different local boundary conditions, e.g. different potentials for the implementation of renewable energy as they are located in different climate zones. In order to create a powerful model, the hybrid energy storages are combined with a large number of state-of-the-art energy generation, conversion and storage technologies, e.g. renewable and fossil power generation, heat pumps, batteries, thermal storages, as benchmark. A linear programming optimization procedure is applied to derive energy systems that allow the most cost-effective supply in terms of electric and thermal demands to the cities. A special focus is on decarbonization as cost-optimal system configurations are derived under direct carbon emission constraints. The results indicate that hybrid energy storages are not part of cost-optimal energy systems without carbon constraints but generate an impact at medium and high decarbonization rates. Total expenditures for the energy supply of all cities decrease on average by around 1 % at a decarbonization rate of 80 % and by 16 % at a decarbonization rate of 100 %. The deployment of hybrid storages especially has an impact on technologies for large-scale heat and cold generation. Sensitivities towards specific cost and the type of implementation show the robustness of the calculated solutions.
Article
Water scarcity and the difference between water supply and consumption is an increasing concern particularly under climatic uncertainty. Costa Rica has historically been at the forefront of environmental legislation; however, the water use framework in Costa Rica, still utilizes a quota style water allocation, which is problematic in extreme drought conditions. This allocation system paired with climate volatility makes it essential to quantify the future water demands compared to the water supply in Costa Rica. We use the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs modeling system to quantify the water availability and usage in watersheds in Costa Rica under different climate and land cover change scenarios. We subsequently assess the spatial variability of water shortage and stress across Costa Rica. We find that there is a high spatial difference in water availability which do not match high use basins. In the highest demand areas, over 70 % of the water supply is projected to be consumed under a business-as-usual land cover change and high emission climate scenario. Low emission climate scenarios result in higher water availability, and increased forest regrowth increases water availability. Overall, the Guanacaste Province and the central valley which includes the capital city of San Jose are most at risk for experiencing high or moderate water shortage and stress in the future. Given the risks associated with water shortage and scarcity, it is important to address governance and stakeholder concerns as we move into the future.
Article
Current power systems are still highly reliant on dispatchable fossil fuels to meet variable electrical demand. As fossil fuel generation is progressively replaced with intermittent and less predictable renewable energy generation to decarbonize the power system, Electrical Energy Storage (EES) technologies are increasingly required to address the supply-demand balance challenge over a wide range of timescales. However, the current use of EES technologies in power systems is significantly below the estimated capacity required for power decarbonization. This paper presents a comprehensive review of EES technologies and investigates how to accelerate the uptake of EES in power systems by reviewing and discussing techno-economic requirements for EES. Individual EES technologies and power system applications are described, which provides guidance for the appraisal of specific EES technologies for specific power system services. Plausibly required scales and technology types of EES over different regions are then reviewed, followed by discussions on storage cost modelling and predictions for different EES technologies. Opportunities and challenges in developing scalable, economically viable and socio-environmental EES technologies are discussed. The paper explores EES's evolving roles and challenges in power system decarbonization and provides useful information and guidance on EES for further R&D, storage market building and policy making in the transition to zero-carbon power systems.
Article
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This paper outlines how an existing energy system can be transformed into a 100% renewable energy system. The transition is divided into a number of key stages which reflect key radical technological changes on the supply side of the energy system. Ireland is used as a case study,but in reality this reflects many typical energy systems today which use power plants for electricity, individual boilers for heat, and oil for transport. The seven stages analysed are 1) reference, 2) introduction of district heating, 3) installation of small and large-scale heat pumps,4) reducing grid regulation requirements, 5) adding flexible electricity demands and electric vehicles, 6) producing synthetic methanol/DME for transport, and finally 7) using synthetic gas to replace the remaining fossil fuels. For each stage, the technical and economic performance of the energy system is calculated. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system can provide the same end-user energy demands as today’s energy system and at the same price. Electricity will be the backbone of the energy system, but the flexibility in today’s electricity sector will be transferred from the supply side of the demand side in the future. Similarly, due to changes in the type of spending required in a 100% renewable energy system, this scenario will result in the creation of 100,000 additional jobs in Ireland compared to an energy system like today’s. These results are significant since they indicate that the transition to a 100% renewable energy system can begin today, without increasing the cost of energy in the short- or long-term, if the costs currently forecasted for 2050 become a reality.
Article
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Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) can benefit public health and the climate by displacing emissions from fossil-fuelled electrical generating units (EGUs). Benefits can vary substantially by EE/RE installation type and location, due to differing electricity generation or savings by location, characteristics of the electrical grid and displaced power plants, along with population patterns. However, previous studies have not formally examined how these dimensions individually and jointly contribute to variability in benefits across locations or EE/RE types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a high-resolution model to simulate and compare the monetized public health and climate benefits of four different illustrative EE/RE installation types in six different locations within the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes of the United States. Annual benefits using central estimates for all pathways ranged from US5.7-US210 million (US14-US170 MWh 1), emphasizing the importance of site-specific information in accurately estimating public health and climate benefits of EE/RE efforts.
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Latin America has a unique position to address climate change impacts due to its many mitigation opportunities and its growing economy. This paper applied two global and one regional integrated assessment models to assess the energy and emissions trends in Brazil and the rest of the Latin American region up to 2050 based on a set of scenarios consistent with current trends and with the 2 °C global mitigation target. The models show that to achieve this target, deep CO2 emission reductions are needed. The power sector offers the greatest mitigation opportunities. The implementation of CCS, in combination with fossil fuels and bioenergy, and hydro, biomass and wind energy are identified in this study as the most promising low-carbon options for the region. The realistic implementation of these options will depend, however, on their capability to overcome the present technical, economic, environmental and social challenges. Besides, an appropriate policy framework to stimulate the transformation of the energy system is also important. Brazil is the first country in Latin America to adopt a national voluntary mitigation goal by law. However, the assessment of the effectiveness of this goal up to now becomes difficult due to the vague targets established.
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Rapid growth of biofuel production in the United States and Brazil over the past decade has increased interest in replicating this success in other nations of the Pan American region. However, the continued use of food-based feedstock such as maize is widely seen as unsustainable and is in some cases linked to deforestation and increased greenhouse gas emissions, raising further doubts about long-term sustainability. As a result, many nations are exploring the production and use of cellulosic feedstock, though progress has been extremely slow. In this paper, we will review the North–South axis of biofuel production in the Pan American region and its linkage with the agricultural sectors in five countries. Focus will be given to biofuel policy goals, their results to date, and consideration of sustainability criteria and certification of producers. Policy goals, results, and sustainability will be highlighted for the main biofuel policies that have been enacted at the national level. Geographic focus will be given to the two largest producers—the United States and Brazil; two smaller emerging producers—Argentina and Canada; and one stalled program—Mexico. However, several additional countries in the region are either producing or planning to produce biofuels. We will also review alternative international governance schemes for biofuel sustainability that have been recently developed, and whether the biofuel programs are being managed to achieve improved environmental quality and sustainable development.
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The transition to a future electricity system based primarily on wind and solar PV is examined for all regions in the contiguous US. We present optimized pathways for the build-up of wind and solar power for least backup energy needs as well as for least cost obtained with a simplified, lightweight model based on long-term high resolution weather-determined generation data. In the absence of storage, the pathway which achieves the best match of generation and load, thus resulting in the least backup energy requirements, generally favors a combination of both technologies, with a wind/solar PV energy mix of about 80/20 in a fully renewable scenario. The least cost development is seen to start with 100% of the technology with the lowest average generation costs first, but with increasing renewable installations, economically unfavorable excess generation pushes it toward the minimal backup pathway. Surplus generation and the entailed costs can be reduced significantly by combining wind and solar power, and/or absorbing excess generation, for example with storage or transmission, or by coupling the electricity system to other energy sectors.
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Since 1990, effective support schemes for renewable energies have been introduced mainly in European countries. In this article, the authors explain which consequences different general conditions could have on the design and functioning of feed-in laws. Cornerstones for an adjusted feed-in law to the particular general conditions of emerging and developing countries in South America will be drawn, which should give support to the decision-makers for designing an attuned and well-functioning feed-in legislation.
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The potential of wind power as a global source of electricity is assessed by using winds derived through assimilation of data from a variety of meteorological sources. The analysis indicates that a network of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply >40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity, >5 times total global use of energy in all forms. Resources in the contiguous United States, specifically in the central plain states, could accommodate as much as 16 times total current demand for electricity in the United States. Estimates are given also for quantities of electricity that could be obtained by using a network of 3.6-MW turbines deployed in ocean waters with depths <200 m within 50 nautical miles (92.6 km) of closest coastlines.
Article
The main objective of this research is to present a solid foundation of capex projections for the major solar energy technologies until the year 2030 for further analyses. The experience curve approach has been chosen for this capex assessment, which requires a good understanding of the projected total global installed capacities of the major solar energy technologies and the respective learning rates. A literature survey has been conducted for CSP tower, CSP trough, PV and Li-ion battery. Based on the literature survey a base case has been defined for all technologies and low growth and high growth cases for further sensitivity analyses. All results are shown in detail in the paper and a comparison to the expectation of a potentially major investor in all of these technologies confirmed the derived capex projections in this paper.
Article
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Article
This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m3/day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m3–2.81 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
Article
In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
Book
Presenting boundary conditions for the economic and environmental utilization of geothermal technology, this is the first book to provide basic knowledge on the topic in such detail. The editor is the coordinator of the European Geothermic Research Initiative, while the authors are experts for the various geological situations in Europe with high temperature reservoirs in shallow and deep horizons. With its perspectives for R&D in geothermic technology concluding each chapter, this ready reference will be of great value to scientists and decision-makers in research and politics, as well as those giving courses in petroleum engineering, for example.
Conference Paper
Photovoltaics (PV) is expected to become one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation during the next decades. The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of PV has already reached grid parity with retail electricity in many markets and is approaching wholesale parity in some countries. In this paper, it is estimated that the PV LCOE in main European markets is going to decrease from 2015 to 2030 by about 45% and to 2050 by about 60%. The LCOE for utility-scale PV in Europe will be about 25-45 €/MWh in 2030 and about 15-30 €/MWh in 2050 depending on the location. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the most important parameter together with the annual irradiation in the calculation of the PV LCOE. The uncertainty in capital and operational expenditure (CAPEX and OPEX) is relatively less important while the system lifetime and degradation have only a minor effect. The work for this paper has been carried out under the framework of the EU PV Technology Platform.
Article
Further development of the North-East Asian energy system is at a crossroads due to severe limitations of the current conventional energy based system. For North-East Asia it is proposed that the excellent solar and wind resources of the Gobi desert could enable the transformation towards a 100% renewable energy system. An hourly resolved model describes an energy system for North-East Asia, subdivided into 14 regions interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grids. Simulations are made for highly centralized, decentralized and countrywide grids scenarios. The results for total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are 0.065 and 0.081 €/(kW&h) for the centralized and decentralized approaches for 2030 assumptions. The presented results for 100% renewable resources-based energy systems are lower in LCOE by about 30–40% than recent findings in Europe for conventional alternatives. This research clearly indicates that a 100% renewable resources based energy system is THE real policy option.
Article
The rise of biofuels took place after the great oil crisis that impacted the world in the 70s. At that period, the mission of supplying the world׳s demand was given primarily to liquid biofuels. South America has a set of renewable energy sources and shows a great potential to contribute to the energy supply of the world in the coming years. Brazil leads the production of biofuels in South and Latin America since the 60s and also stands out at a global scale. Considering this context, this paper aims to approach the current scenario and the prospects of the main South-American countries, whose energy matrices receive relevant contribution from liquid biofuels. In South America, liquid biofuels stand out among renewable energies, represented mostly by ethanol and biodiesel. Brazil and Argentina lead the scenario and prospects of these biofuels in South America, while countries like Peru and Uruguay look for alternatives to supply such demands as they struggle internally for legislations that stimulate the use of biofuels in the energy matrix.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Technical Report
In large parts of the world, there is a massive need for electrification. Especially in remote areas the valuable access to electricity is often missing. Mini-Grids that enable the operation of machines are particularly suitable to supply communities in a sustainable way with electricity and to promote local progress. In particular PV is suited for the supply of island grids as a decentralized source of energy. In many countries photovoltaic is already an economic alternative to diesel supply and can provide economically up to 90% of energy consumption in an island grid. Profitability, a large market potential and a well political and financial environment for stand-alone PV systems are found especially in East Africa and some South American and Asian countries. The reasons for the failure of Mini-Grids are bad political conditions, lack of credit availability and sometimes inadequate project development. In particular, the funding represents often one of the biggest obstacles for the successful implementation of a project. A sustainable operation is possible if the political and financial environment is met complemented by a comprehensive and provident planning.. Cultural aspects, a cost covering and affordable tariff system and ensuring technical reliability are important elements of successful system integration. The interests of users, operators, financiers and governmental institutions should complement each other positively. Need for action exists yet mainly at the political level in order to create better conditions. In particular, the benefits of renewable energies are not sufficiently known by many decision makers. In addition potential financiers want to be convinced by positive examples. There are by now some promising business models that can be easily reproduced in a country with clear conditions and good financing options. In this way, in a relatively short period of time access to sustainable electrical energy could be enabled for many people in developing countries.
Conference Paper
Annual available solar resource is dependent on global horizontal irradiation (GHI) and PV systems. Relevant tracking and non-tracking PV systems are presented based on Hay-Davis-Klucher-Reindl (HDKR) approach. Results of the analysis are shown for all PV systems and all regions in the world. Solar resources are weighted by global population distribution, regarded per country, continent and region and compared to area weighted, maximum and minimum irradiation per geographic entity. Global electricity weighted irradiation for fixed optimally tilted PV systems is about 1,690 kWh/m²/y, significantly less than global population and area weighted irradiation of about 1,850 and 1,780 kWh/m²/y, respectively.
Conference Paper
People in rural regions of various developing countries suffer on having no access to modern forms of energy, in particular electricity. This work is focussed on regions inhabited by these people and presents insights on the short financial amortization periods of solar home systems and photovoltaic pico systems. With amortization periods of about 6 to 18 months, pico systems represent a capitalized value of about 10 to 45 times the original capital expenditures at the point of full financial amortization. For a significantly higher electricity demand hybrid PV mini-grids might be an excellent solution for rural electrification. However the economics are still a challenge. Based on excellent economics of small PV applications the total global residential small PV market potential is estimated to about 8 GWp and 80 bn€. The total PV-based off-grid market potential for the not yet electrified people might be estimated to about 70 GW and roughly 750 bn€.
Conference Paper
Diesel generators contribute to a large share of power generation in developing countries like Peru, the Philippines and Tanzania. This leads to high costs for electricity and causes harmful air pollution. In contrast to that renewable energies can provide affordable and environmentally sound power. This paper indicates that a potential of at least 500 MW is available for upgrading isolated diesel grids to hybrid grids. A geographic analysis is developed in order to localize isolated diesel grids. Furthermore, detected diesel grids are analyzed in terms of installed capacity, operators and purpose of supply. The methodology presented in this paper enables to reveal the huge potential that retrofitting isolated diesel grids provides for the introduction of renewable energies.
Article
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
Article
Policy makers face difficult choices in planning to decarbonise their electricity industries in the face of significant technology and economic uncertainties. To this end we compare the projected costs in 2030 of one medium-carbon and two low-carbon fossil fuel scenarios for the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) against the costs of a previously published scenario for 100% renewable electricity in 2030. The three new fossil fuel scenarios, based on the least cost mix of baseload and peak load power stations in 2010, are: (i) a medium-carbon scenario utilising only gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs); (ii) coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) plus peak load OCGT; and (iii) gas-fired CCGT with CCS plus peak load OCGT. We perform sensitivity analyses of the results to future carbon prices, gas prices, and CO2 transportation and storage costs which appear likely to be high in most of Australia. We find that only under a few, and seemingly unlikely, combinations of costs can any of the fossil fuel scenarios compete economically with 100% renewable electricity in a carbon constrained world. Our findings suggest that policies pursuing very high penetrations of renewable electricity based on commercially available technology offer a cost effective and low risk way to dramatically cut emissions in the electricity sector.
Article
An estimation of the Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential for the Iberian Peninsula is presented in this work. As a first step, the temperature at different depths (from 3500 m to 9500 m, in 1000 m steps) has been estimated from existing heat flow, temperature at 1000 m and temperature at 2000 m depth data. From the obtained temperature-at-depth data, an evaluation of the available heat stored for each 1 km thick layer between 3 and 10 km depth, under some limiting hypotheses, has been made. Results are presented as the net electrical power that could be installed, considering that the available thermal energy stored is extracted during a 30 year project life. The results are presented globally for the Iberian Peninsula and separately for Portugal (continental Portugal), Spain (continental Spain plus the Balearic Islands) and for each one of the administrative regions included in the study. Nearly 6% of the surface of the Iberian Peninsula, at a depth of 3500 m has a temperature higher than 150 °C. This surface increases to more than 50% at 5500 m depth, and more than 90% at 7500 m depth. The Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential in the Iberian Peninsula, up to a 10 km depth (3 km–10 km) and for temperatures above 150 °C, expressed as potential installed electrical power, is as high as 700 GWe, which is more than 5 times today's total electricity capacity installed in the Iberian Peninsula (renewable, conventional thermal and nuclear).
Article
In this work an estimation and comparison of the technical and sustainable potentials of EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) in Europe is presented. The temperatures at depths of (3500–9500) m were firstly calculated from the available data of temperatures at surface, 1000 m and 2000 m depth, and heat flow. Next the available thermal energy stored in each 1000 m thick layer along the considered depths was evaluated. At this point, the EGS technical potential was estimated and results are presented as installable net electrical power by considering a 30 year time project. A method to estimate the EGS sustainable potential is proposed and the results are compared with the technical potential. Results are presented for the European territory as a whole and individually for each one of the European countries. Estimations for Turkey and the Caucasus region are also presented. Under the hypotheses considered in our study, the technical potential of EGS in Europe for temperatures above 150 °C and depths of between 3 km and 10 km was estimated to be more than 6500 GWe. The part of this technical potential that can be considered as ‘sustainable’ or ‘renewable’ potential was estimated to be 35 GWe.
Article
A new generator portfolio planning model is described that is capable of quantifying the carbon emissions associated with systems that include very high penetrations of variable renewables. The model combines a deterministic renewable portfolio planning module with a Monte Carlo simulation of system operation that determines the expected least-cost dispatch from each technology, the necessary reserve capacity, and the expected carbon emissions at each hour. Each system is designed to meet a maximum loss of load expectation requirement of 1 day in 10 years. The present study includes wind, centralized solar thermal, and rooftop photovoltaics, as well as hydroelectric, geothermal, and natural gas plants. The portfolios produced by the model take advantage of the aggregation of variable generators at multiple geographically disperse sites and the incorporation of meteorological and load forecasts. Results are presented from a model run of the continuous two-year period, 2005–2006 in the California ISO operating area. A low-carbon portfolio is produced for this system that is capable of achieving an 80% reduction in electric power sector carbon emissions from 2005 levels and supplying over 99% of the annual delivered load with non-carbon sources. A portfolio is also built for a projected 2050 system, which is capable of providing 96% of the delivered electricity from non-carbon sources, despite a projected doubling of the 2005 system peak load. The results suggest that further reductions in carbon emissions may be achieved with emerging technologies that can reliably provide large capacities without necessarily providing positive net annual energy generation. These technologies may include demand response, vehicle-to-grid systems, and large-scale energy storage.
Book
The International Energy Agency’s annual energy projections. Based on scenarios, these projections compare what will happen if policies remain the same and what might happen if policies were improved. Each edition tends to have a particular geographical or policy focus.
Article
This article aims to evaluate the use of hydroelectric potential in Brazil and the expansion of the hydroelectric power stations in Amazon, in the northern region of the country, highlighting the vulnerabilities, the impacts and the adaption possibilities of the hydroelectric energy in face to increasing socio-environmental demands and to global climate change in progress. The analysis indicates the nearly exhausted hydroelectric potential in other regions of the country, transforming the Amazon into a new "hydroelectric barn" or "new hydroelectric frontier". The integrated management of reservoirs and multiple uses of water, the new institutional and regulatory arrangements, the technological and economic opportunities of the sector, and finally, integration with neighboring countries are treated to subsidize a sustainable use of hydroelectric potential in the Amazon.
Article
In October 2008, the Brazilian Government announced plans to invest US$212 billion in the construction of nuclear power plants, totaling a joint capacity of 60,000 MW. Apart from this program, officials had already announced the completion of the construction of the nuclear plant Angra III; the construction of large-scale hydroelectric plans in the Amazon and the implantation of natural gas, biomass and coal thermoelectric plants in other regions throughout the country. Each of these projects has its proponents and its opponents, who bring forth concerns and create heated debates in the specialized forums. In this article, some of these concerns are explained, especially under the perspective of the comparative analysis of costs involved. Under such merit figures, the nuclear option, when compared to hydro plants, combined with conventional thermal and biomass-fueled plants, and even wind, to expand Brazilian power-generation capacity, does not appear as a priority.
Article
Each stage in the life cycle of coal-extraction, transport, processing, and combustion-generates a waste stream and carries multiple hazards for health and the environment. These costs are external to the coal industry and are thus often considered "externalities." We estimate that the life cycle effects of coal and the waste stream generated are costing the U.S. public a third to over one-half of a trillion dollars annually. Many of these so-called externalities are, moreover, cumulative. Accounting for the damages conservatively doubles to triples the price of electricity from coal per kWh generated, making wind, solar, and other forms of nonfossil fuel power generation, along with investments in efficiency and electricity conservation methods, economically competitive. We focus on Appalachia, though coal is mined in other regions of the United States and is burned throughout the world.
Energia Armazenada. Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS)
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