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Assessment of energy storage technologies in transition to a 100% renewable energy system for Nigeria
Abstract
This work investigates the role of storage technologies in a least cost electricity system for Nigeria, in a 100% renewable energy (RE) transition pathway. A 100% RE scenario for Nigeria is simulated using an hourly resolved model, till 2050, covering the power, desalination and industrial gas sectors. The optimization for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) is carried out on the basis of assumed costs and technological status till 2050 of all energy technologies involved. Results from the modelling show that a 100% renewable powered system is achievable for Nigeria by 2050. Solar PV emerges as the dominant technology among all RE technologies and contributes 400 GW and 557 GW of the total installed capacities, in the power and integrated scenarios, respectively, by 2050. The share of wind remains constant at 3.6 GW from 2030 till 2045 in the power scenario, while in the integrated scenario the share of wind remained constant at 8.6 GW, from 2030 to 2050. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) declines from 61.2 €/MWh in 2015 to 38.0 €/MWh in 2050, in the power scenario. With respect to the focus of this work, the RE technologies are complemented by various storage technologies, due to high variability and reliability of RE supply. For Nigeria, gas storage dominates in terms of the total installed storage capacities, from 2040 to 2050 in the power scenario. Regarding storage output, battery storage output represents the largest share, with 360 TWh (90% of all storage throughput) in the power scenario, by 2050. This indicates compatibility and a predominant role of solar PV and battery, due to highly favorable economics. The results clearly reveal that integrating a RE technology mix with a wide variety of storage technologies is quite competitive and thus a least cost electricity solution for Nigeria in the mid-term future.
Supplementary resource (1)
... More than 90 million people in Nigeria still lack access to grid electricity, which represents 55% of the country's population [6]. Unmet power demand results in load shedding, blackouts, and reliance on expensive diesel backup generators [10]. In 2012, an estimated amount of 16 generators in SSA, and Nigeria accounts for about three-quarters of the electricity supplied by backup generators in the region [11]. ...
... Recent studies have demonstrated the possibility of achieving a 100% renewables based power systems for cases such as Nigeria [5], SSA [10], Northeast Asia [20], Europe [21] and global [22]. These studies have shown that deep decarbonisation of the future power system is possible taking into account technical, economic and societal constraints, but it is also the least cost electricity option with utmost societal welfare. ...
... In addition, the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) can be well supported by the deployment of small and large scale RE technologies, in view of tackling the two main challenges faced globally; climate change and widespread energy poverty [3]. The current electricity deficit and rising demand in Nigeria necessitates rapid response in bridging the gap between demand and supply [12], due to its growing population and unprecedented economic progress [10]. Therefore, tackling the plague of recurrent power outages and rising electricity demand in a way that is economically sustainable and safeguards livelihoods in Nigeria [7], which requires the deployment of RE infrastructure as a key solution with benefits that are multifaceted [10]. ...
Ambitious actions focused on rapid defossilisation of today's energy systems require greater urgency, in order to avert unmanageable impacts of climate change. Transitioning to a cost-effective and carbon-neutral energy system in Nigeria and across the globe by the second half of this century is vital. This study explores a paradigmatic pathway to a fully sustainable energy system for Nigeria, by 2050. The research approach is to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% renewable energy based power system for Nigeria, using a linear optimisation model. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year. The country researched is structured into 6 sub-regions. The optimisation for each of the 5-year time periods is carried out based on assumed costs and technological status until 2050 for all energy technologies involved. The levelised cost of electricity declines from 54 €/MWh in 2015 to 46 €/MWh in 2050 for the power sector in the Best Policy Scenario and further declines to 35 €/MWh with sector coupling. Whereas, the cost of electricity increased to 75 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario without greenhouse gas emission cost. The results clearly reveal that integrating a renewable energy technology mix with a wide variety of storage technologies is the most competitive and least cost electricity option for Nigeria in the mid-term future, as indicated by the Best Policy Scenario. In particular, the compatibility and predominant role of solar photovoltaics and batteries is paramount towards a rapid transition of Nigeria's power sector, due to highly favourable economics. This study concludes with the implications of a stable and supportive policy environment, transitioning to a defossiliated energy system in Nigeria could be achieved in the mid-term future. This study is the first of its kind in full hourly resolution for Nigeria, and demonstrates the need for carrying out detailed analyses in examining gaps in energy transition understanding based on various policy constraints for developing countries in comparable climates.
... Extensive studies have been carried out to show the feasibility of using alternative power generation methods instead of fossil fuels. Scholars potentially analyzed different countries in order to achieve the 100 % renewable energy supply in the near future, for instance, Iran [3], Bolivia [4], China [5], Nigeria [6], Ireland [7], Japan [8], South Africa [9], Europe [10]. Among different kinds of sustainable resources, solar energy is the most widespread one, due to its accessibility in most parts of the earth. ...
... This likeness is justified with attention to equation (6) through (8). According to equation (6), the numerator is the output power of the PV module and the denominator is constant for a given amount of irradiation. Furthermore, the proposed relation made by CCD has been presented by equation (13). ...
Photovoltaic (PV) technology plays an important role in the progressing trend of using renewable energies in the world. Yet the negative impact of a cell's temperature rise on its performance is a major weakness of this technology. In this paper, the effects of both air blowing and emitted radiation are investigated experimentally in the ranges of 0–7.7 km/h and 360–840 W/m2, respectively. In this regard, using Central Composite Design (CCD), the experiment was designed and performed to evaluate the response of a PV module to both of the variables. The results show that the PV module temperature drops from 61 °C to 40 °C when radiation intensity is 840 W/m2 and air velocity is 7.7 km/h. This temperature reduction causes a 2.5 % rise in electrical efficiency. Three equations were derived in order to correlate the outcome of temperature, electrical efficiency, and output power of a PV cell, with respect to irradiation intensity and air velocity. It is realized that in order to enhance the PV module output power, the effect of air current velocity is potentially more promising than the irradiance intensity. Also, the results proves that the impact of cooling the module on electrical efficiency strongly depends on the level of irradiation intensity.
... The last government-endorsed scenario study into Nigeria's energy future was carried out in 2014 by the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN, 2014). Since then, a number of other long-term scenario studies covering the Nigerian power sector, either partly or wholly, have been conducted (Cervigni, Rogers, & Henrion, 2013;FGN, 2015;Oxfam America, 2017;Oyewo, Aghahosseini, & Breyer, 2017;PwC, 2016). The most extensive one was carried out by the World Bank as part of a study on low-carbon development of the power, land use, agriculture, oil and gas sectors (Cervigni et al., 2013). ...
... More recently, Oxfam and the University of California, Berkeley, modelled the Nigerian energy transition to reliable and affordable power by 2035 and explored the integration aspects of variable renewable resources (Oxfam America, 2017). Oyewo et al. (2017) modelled an energy transition from the current fossil fuel-based-system to a 100% renewable energy-based power system by 2050, where PV installed capacity reaches 400 GW by 2050 and battery storage dominates the balancing options. Finally, the modelling that supported the Nigerian NDC (FGN, 2015) pointed at efficiency of future gas power plants as holding the greatest potential for emission reductions, whereas the most cost-effective measure is the introduction of renewable energy into the mix, in particular in a decentralized manner. ...
Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the un-electrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. In practice, diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. In Nigeria’s nationally-determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, over 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions are foreseen in the power sector. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its 2030 electricity access, renewables and decarbonization goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, we build three potential scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). The supply assumptions are built upon an evaluation of the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity, and possible scale-up rates up to 2030. The results reveal that, in the most ambitious Green Transition scenario, Nigeria meets its electricity access goals, whereby those connected to the grid achieve a Tier 3 level of access, and those served by sustainable off-grid solutions (mini-grids and SHS) achieve Tier 2. Decarbonization pledges would be surpassed in all three scenarios but renewable energy goals would only be partly met. Fossil fuel-based back-up generation continues to play a substantial role in all scenarios. The implications and critical uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed.
Key policy insights
• The 2030 electricity mix for Nigeria varies across the scenarios presented, with the most ambitious scenario achieving electricity access goals and partly meeting renewable energy goals.
• All three scenarios surpass the decarbonization targets of Nigeria’s NDC for the power sector.
• The transformation of the power sector relies on a wide range of financial, policy and enabling environment-related conditions taking place in the near-term, some of which are in turn strongly influenced by larger political economy realities.
• Fossil fuel-based back-up generation plays a substantial role in all scenarios. Data availability for this technology remains a significant source of uncertainty.
... The insufficient access to 24 h electricity by Nigerians is explained by the 25% reduction in the (59%) quoted access to electricity [81]. Furthermore, this suggests that there are barely 13-14 h of electricity usage to the (59%) population quoted [82] to have access to Table 3 The equations used in modeling hydrogen production [75] Definitions Equations ...
As the world continues to fight against climate change, renewables have emerged as an imminent solution, however, a model that can help (developing) countries to effectively migrate to a renewable energy-based power sector is limited in literature. In this study, a comprehensive electricity generation analysis based on an hourly time-step is done in a bid to solve to electrification crisis in developing countries. This study aims to present the feasible pathways with which sustainable electrification can be achieved. This is done by considering the financial feasibility, environmental sustainability, and technical viability of different technological combinations. In comparison to existing literature, this study is novel as the integration of both renewable energy sources and a fossil fuel source is analyzed. With Nigeria being the study area, the integration of five renewable energy-based technologies namely; offshore wind power plant, onshore wind power plant, solar photovoltaic system, concentrated solar power plant, and hydropower plant as well as pumped hydro storage system is considered within the scope of this study. Based on the results of the analysis, out of the ninety-nine different combinatory scenarios modeled, the most viable solution with the use of renewables and natural gas is the combination of natural gas power plants, on-shore wind power plants, and solar photovoltaic systems. This requires a large capacity installation (32,500 MW of natural gas power plant, 12,000 MW of solar photovoltaic plant, and 7,000 MW of on-shore wind power plant) as well as a total annual cost and an investment cost of 48.7B. Furthermore, solving the poised problem based on renewable energy technologies will only require the combination of on-shore wind power plants, hydropower plants, solar photovoltaic system, and pumped hydro storage system. The integration of plug-in battery electric vehicles and hydrogen production will help maximize the electricity produced from the renewable energy-based power systems. This will also reduce the overall carbon emission from the country at large. Beyond providing feasible scenarios and plans to tackle the existing electricity production, guidelines on steps (not to take) to tackle the electrification problem are embedded in this study.
... Although 33.84 % is smaller than the 59 % quoted to have access to electricity, it reflects and confirms the daily lack of electricity supply for 24 hours to those with access to electricity [1], [2]. An electricity production of 33.84 % suggests that the 59 % with access to electricity in Nigeria daily have 13 -14 hours of electricity on average [3]. This is in line with previous studies in the literature. ...
Electricity generation, transmission, and distribution have jointly constituted a major challenge in Nigeria for decades. Currently, approximately 41% of the country's citizens have no access to electricity. In this study, an economically viable, renewable, and sustainable plan to achieve 100% electrification in Nigeria by 2030 is presented. The use of natural gas (NG), wind onshore (WON), wind offshore, photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power, and hydro-power plants was analyzed. Pumped hydro-storage is the only electricity storage system considered in this study. A total of 99 different scenarios resulting from the combination of the aforementioned technologies were considered. The initial investment, total annual cost, share of renewable energy, carbon emissions, and electricity production of each of the scenarios were analyzed. A one-year analysis based on hourly time-step was conducted using EnergyPLAN. Power production importation and critical excess electricity production are the deterministic factors in this study. The electricity demand in Nigeria is estimated to be 200 TWh/yr by 2030. A NG capacity of 36,000 MW will be required to meet this demand if a single power technology is implemented. The most sustainable plan is the use of combined NG and PV or NG and WON to meet the electricity demand.
... Mentis et al. [5] adopted a GIS approach to study electrification planning for Nigeria. Aghahosseini [6] investigated the role of storage technologies in a least cost electricity system for Nigeria, in a 100% Renewable Energy (RE) transition pathway. Research studies on potentials and availability of RE in some towns, state and isolated region are available from [2], [7], [8], [9]. ...
... Other similar energy transition studies also suggest that least cost power systems for 2050 can be achieved with 100% RE [26], [33]- [37]. These studies also suggest that further integration of desalination and non-energy gas demands into the energy system model could result in further LCOE savings, suggesting an interesting area of further research for the BSR. ...
The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model that defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from inter-regional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, inter-regional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... These results are similar to other similar transition studies using the LUT Energy System Transition model, which show a range of about 50-70 €/MWh for 2030 [11], [20], [22]- [24], [25]- [28], [29]. Other energy transition studies for 2050 also indicate that least cost power systems are possible for 100% RE [30]- [35]. These studies also suggest that Area scenarios, further integration of the desalination sector, and integrating non-energy gas demands into the energy system model result in further LCOE savings. ...
A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
... Hence, solar and wind generation are capable of addressing severe energy shortage in SSA due their fast deployment and short project periods, both on-grid and off-grid [5]. Moreover, studies modelling an optimal mix of RE revealed the possibility of meeting future energy demand through operating the existing hydropower plants, and new added wind and solar capacities [40,101]. Furthermore, from an energy security point of view, it is risky for SSA to depend on a single project or technology, as power disruption is rather likely for the countries importing electricity from such a source. ...
The idea of damming the Congo River has persisted for decades. The Grand Inga project, of up to 42 GW power generation capacity, can only be justified as part of a regional energy master plan for Africa, to bridge the energy gap on the continent. Proponents of very large dams have often exaggerated potential multiple benefits of a mega dam, marginalise environmental concerns and neglect the true risk of such projects, in particular for the fragile economies of developing countries. Studies have reported the financial risks, cost overruns and schedule spills associated with very large dams. In addition, most of the dams in the region are poorly managed. Therefore, the type and scale of Grand Inga is not the solution for millions of not yet electrified people in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this research, scenarios are defined based on announced costs and expected costs. Cost escalations in the range from 5% to 100% for the Inga project in 2030 and 2040 are considered, as average cost overruns are typically at about 70% or higher for similar mega-dams. It was found that when the cost overrun for the Grand Inga project exceeds 35% and −5% for 2030 and 2040 assumptions, respectively, the project becomes economically non-beneficial. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa can mainly be powered by solar photovoltaics to cover the electricity demand and complemented by wind energy, supported by batteries. Hydropower and biomass-based electricity can serve as complementary resources. The grid frequency stability of the power system is analysed and discussed in the paper. Benefits of the Inga hydropower project have to be increasingly questioned, in particular due to the fast cost decline of solar photovoltaics and batteries.
... As developed economies have already much higher shares of VRE, research on addressing the challenge is already advanced (IRENA, 2017b). There is even ongoing research on how to achieve 100% renewables in Nigeria by 2050, which takes intermittency into account (Akuru, Onukwube, Okoro, & Obe, 2017;Oyewo, Aghahosseini, & Breyer, 2017). Since infrastructure has long time horizons, it is important to assume a 'systems perspective' when planning with VRE (Ueckerdt, Brecha, & Luderer, 2015) even at very low penetration rates. ...
Africa is growing rapidly both in terms of population size and economically. It is also becoming increasingly clear that fossil fuels impose a high price on society through local environmental pollution and Africa’s particular vulnerability to climate change. At the same time, Africa has an excellent renewable energy potential and prices for renewable energy are reaching the price range of fossil fuels. Comparing results from state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment Models we find different options for achieving a sustainable energy supply in Africa. They have in common, however, that strong economic development is considered compatible with the 2°C climate target. Taking both challenges and appropriate solutions into account, some models find that a complete switch to renewable energy in electricity production is possible in the medium term. The continental analysis identifies important synergy effects, in particular the exchange of electricity between neighbouring countries. The optimal energy mix varies considerably between African countries, but there is sufficient renewable energy for each country. The intermittency and higher capital intensity of renewable energy are important challenges, but proven solutions are available for them. In addition, we analyse the political economy of a sustainable energy transition in Africa.
Key policy insights
• An almost complete shift towards renewable energy (RE) is considered feasible and affordable in Africa.
• By 2050, electricity generation could be sourced largely from solar, wind and hydro power.
• Prices for RE in Africa are now within the price range of fossil fuels, partly due to the excellent RE potential.
• The optimal energy mix varies strongly between countries, but RE is sufficiently available everywhere.
• Addressing intermittency is possible, but requires investments and cooperation on the grid.
... The LCOE values obtained in this work indicate that the cost of electricity could decrease from 60 €/kWh in - [13], [29]- [32]. Other similar energy transition studies also suggest that least cost power systems for 2050 can be achieved with 100% RE [26], [33]- [37]. These studies also suggest that further integration of desalination and non-energy gas demands into the energy system model could result in further LCOE savings, suggesting an interesting area of further research for the BSR. ...
The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model which defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-togas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from interregional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, interregional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... The [11], [20], [22]- [24], [25]- [28], [29]. Other energy transition studies for 2050 also indicate that least cost power systems are possible for 100% RE [30]- [35]. These studies also suggest that Area scenarios, further integration of the desalination sector, and integrating non-energy gas demands into the energy system model result in further LCOE savings. ...
A transition towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 is investigated for Europe. Simulations using an hourly resolved model define the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. The investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-togas technology. Modelling proceeds from 2015 to 2050 in five-year time steps, and considers current power plant capacities, their corresponding lifetimes, and current and projected electricity demand to determine an optimal mix of plants needed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. This optimization is carried out with regards to the assumed costs and technological status of all technologies involved. The total power capacity required by 2050, shares of resources, and storage technologies are defined. Results indicate that the levelised cost of electricity falls from a current level of 69 €/MWhe to 51 €/MWhe in 2050 through the adoption of low cost RE power generation, improvements in efficiency, and expanded power interconnections. Additionally, flexibility of and stability in the power system are provided by increasing shares of energy storage solutions over time, in parallel with expected price decreases in these technologies. Total storage requirements include up to 3320 GWhe of batteries, 396 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 218,042 GWhgas of gas storage (8% for synthetic natural gas and 92% for biomethane) for the time period depending on the scenario. The cost share of levelised cost of storage in the total levelised cost of electricity increases from less than 2 €/MWh (2% of total) to 16 €/MWh (28% of total) over the same time. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2020 when renewable energy generation reaches 50% in the power system, increasing to a total of 44 TWhgas in 2050. A 100% RE system can be a more economical and efficient solution for Europe, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out in the Paris Agreement.
... Costs for fossil fuel-related GHG emissions would become a financial burden if an energy transi- tion were delayed. By 2050, the energy system LCOE is mainly based The LCOE of the energy system can be reduced in the beginning of the energy transition by substituting natural gas with solar PV and more bioenergy, followed by a period of rather stable energy system LCOE for Nigeria 83 and India. 84 More results on Ethiopia, in particular, includ- ing effects of potential stronger power grid interconnection to neighbours, are available elsewhere. ...
The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5-year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership.
This paper examines the complexity of achieving economic growth simultaneously with low carbon transition in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) seeks to carry out far-reaching cuts capable of reducing the scale of pollution recorded in the country. But the ratification of the agreement also works at cross-purposes with Vision 20:20 and the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) since these development blueprints are heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Qualitative data was used to arrive at the study’s' findings, complemented with quantitative data based on Nigeria Energy Calculator modelling tool for analyzing energy demand and supply in the country. The paper observed that a plethora of issues were impediments to the implementation of the NDC. That, fossil fuel energy generation as palliative is incapable of addressing issues of externality. Thus, Nigeria needs a new socio-economic contract termed the Food Sufficiency Economy (FSE) to usher in a net zero carbon trajectory. FSE is a convergence of food sovereignty and sufficiency economy. It is also in line with Africa’s eco-bio-communitarianism perspective, but slanted towards Climate-Smart Agriculture as the building block for a low carbon and climate resilient future. Okoh, A. I. S. | Department of Political Science, Benue State University Makurdi, Nigeria.
Technical Report "Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector", published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017
A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is feasible at every hour throughout the year and more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will.
Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050 . The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050.
Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is 52 €/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to 70 €/MWh in 2015.
Solar PV and battery storage drive most of the 100% renewable electricity supply due to a significant decline in costs during the transition.
Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally.
Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. Solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050.
Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly short-term (diurnal) storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage.
100% renewables bring GHG emissions in the electricity sector down to zero, drastically reduce total losses in power generation and create 36 million jobs by 2050.
Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eq in 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines.
The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system. Operation and maintenance jobs increase from 20% of the total direct energy jobs in 2015 to 48% of the total jobs in 2050 that implies more stable employment chances and economic growth globally.
The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.
In recent years, photovoltaic (PV) technology has experienced a rapid cost reduction. This trend is expected to continue, which in many countries drives interest in utility-scale PV power plants. The main disadvantage of such plants is that they operate only when the sun is shining. The installation of PV modules together with energy storage and/or fossil fuel backup is a way to solve that issue, but consequently increases the costs. In the last few years, however, lithium-ion batteries as well have shown a promising price reduction. This paper studies the competitiveness of a hybrid power plant that combines a PV system, lithium-ion battery and gas turbine (GT) compared to conventional fossil-fuel power plants (coal and natural gas-fired) with focus on the battery cost. To fulfil the demand an auxiliary GT is used in the hybrid PV plant, but its annual generation is limited to 20% of the total output. The metric for the comparison of the different technologies is the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The installation of the plants is showcased in Morocco, a country with excellent solar resources. Future market scenarios for 2020 and 2030 are considered. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the key parameters that influence LCOE.
Reliable access to electricity still remains a challenge in many regions of Nigeria. For achieving a rapid electricity access for large geographic regions alternative electrification pathways apart from grid connection need to be taken into account. Therefore, sophisticated planning tools to determine techno-economic optimized electrification pathways are necessary. Here, an approach for such a tool is presented and combines GIS and energy system simulation tools. The approach is based on the identification of consumer clusters, determination of status of electrification and assignment of a suitable electricity supply option. Three options are taken into account: Grid extension, PV-hybrid mini-grids and solar-home systems (SHS). Within this study we have identified 47,489 consumer clusters for entire Nigeria and found that 46% of the people living in these clusters are currently not supplied with electricity. A connection of all customers within a 20 km zone around the existing grid would have the largest impact with delivering electricity to 57.1 million people. Outside this grid zone, a population of 12.8 million is most suitably supplied by PV-hybrid mini-grids and 2.8 million by SHS. Therefore, a PV capacity in a range of 671 to 1,790 MW for mini-grids and 84 MW for SHS would be required.
Preface
This book brings together experts in energy policy, social science, power systems, solar energy, agronomy, renewable energy technologies, nuclear engineering, transportation, and the built environment from both sides of the Atlantic to explore the future of energy production and consumption from technological, political, and sociological perspectives. The volume is not intended to serve as complete in-depth coverage of all energy sector technologies, nor to cover energy policy comprehensively for all world regions.
It is, however, hoped that the topics selected and questions addressed will encourage further engagement and debate among not only students, but anyone with interest in energy sustainability, climate change, and related challenges.
These issues are multi-dimensional and complex in nature; “wicked problems” with no easy answers. The book explores issues such as financial outlay and tariff support, the readiness of emerging technologies such as wave and tidal energy converters, the degree of wind energy that may be accommodated on national networks, the extent to which solar energy may be deployed, challenges and uncertainties in the production of advanced biofuels, concerns about natural gas extraction via hydraulic fracture (hydrofracking), and whether nuclear energy should become more widely used or taken out of the generation mix.
In many quarters there is a sense of a race against time in trying to undo the current and introduce the new technologies that will help reduce carbon emissions back to within acceptable levels and, in so doing, offset further increases in global average temperature. It is also important to remain focused and seek agreement on practical steps that may be taken in both the short term, through research and innovation for renewable technologies and efficiency in energy use, and longer term through replacement of coal, oil, and gas by commercially viable renewable technologies in much greater proportions than are achievable today.
We the editors are strong proponents of a growing dialogue between the technology and policy communities, and attest to the value of a broader exchange among stakeholders. Through our respective participation in programs such as the Fulbright Scholarship and the AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellowship, we have witnessed ways in which this dialogue can both inspire and be transformed into action.
We wish to extend our thanks to the Dublin Institute of Technology, Purdue University, and both the Irish and US Fulbright Commissions for facilitating the faculty exchanges between DIT and Purdue that were the origin of this book. We would also like to thank Dr. Arden Bement, Emeritus Director of the Global Policy Research Institute and his team at Purdue University; Yvonne Desmond and Amy Van Epps, librarians at DIT and Purdue respectively; and the staff at Purdue University Press, especially editor
Jennifer Lynch and director Charles Watkinson. Last but not least, we wish to thank Dr. Marek Rebow for his energy and dedication to research at DIT and to Dr. Melissa Dark for her role in research collaboration between Purdue University and DIT.
Eugene D. Coyle, Military Technological College, Sultanate of Oman
Richard A. Simmons, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
The Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) is the technology pillar of the EU's energy and climate policy. This report contains assessments of energy technology reference indicators (ETRI) and it is aimed at providing independent and up-to-date cost and performance characteristics of the present and future European energy technology portfolio. It is meant to complement the Technology Map of SETIS. Combined these two reports provide:
* techno-economic data projections for the modelling community and policy makers, e.g.: capital and operating costs, and thermal efficiencies and technical lifetimes;
* greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumptions;
* an overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance;
* a useful tool for policymakers for helping to identify future priorities for research, development and demonstration (RD&D);
The ETRI report covers the time frame 2010 to 2050. This first version of the report focuses on electricity generation technologies, but it also includes electrical transmission grids, energy storage systems, and heat pumps.
An estimation of the Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential for the Iberian Peninsula is presented in this work. As a first step, the temperature at different depths (from 3500 m to 9500 m, in 1000 m steps) has been estimated from existing heat flow, temperature at 1000 m and temperature at 2000 m depth data. From the obtained temperature-at-depth data, an evaluation of the available heat stored for each 1 km thick layer between 3 and 10 km depth, under some limiting hypotheses, has been made. Results are presented as the net electrical power that could be installed, considering that the available thermal energy stored is extracted during a 30 year project life. The results are presented globally for the Iberian Peninsula and separately for Portugal (continental Portugal), Spain (continental Spain plus the Balearic Islands) and for each one of the administrative regions included in the study. Nearly 6% of the surface of the Iberian Peninsula, at a depth of 3500 m has a temperature higher than 150 °C. This surface increases to more than 50% at 5500 m depth, and more than 90% at 7500 m depth. The Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential in the Iberian Peninsula, up to a 10 km depth (3 km–10 km) and for temperatures above 150 °C, expressed as potential installed electrical power, is as high as 700 GWe, which is more than 5 times today's total electricity capacity installed in the Iberian Peninsula (renewable, conventional thermal and nuclear).
In this work an estimation and comparison of the technical and sustainable potentials of EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) in Europe is presented. The temperatures at depths of (3500–9500) m were firstly calculated from the available data of temperatures at surface, 1000 m and 2000 m depth, and heat flow. Next the available thermal energy stored in each 1000 m thick layer along the considered depths was evaluated. At this point, the EGS technical potential was estimated and results are presented as installable net electrical power by considering a 30 year time project. A method to estimate the EGS sustainable potential is proposed and the results are compared with the technical potential. Results are presented for the European territory as a whole and individually for each one of the European countries. Estimations for Turkey and the Caucasus region are also presented. Under the hypotheses considered in our study, the technical potential of EGS in Europe for temperatures above 150 °C and depths of between 3 km and 10 km was estimated to be more than 6500 GWe. The part of this technical potential that can be considered as ‘sustainable’ or ‘renewable’ potential was estimated to be 35 GWe.
Need to transform the energy system towards 100% renewable generation is well understood and such a transformation has already started. However, this transformation will be full of challenges and there will be no standard solution for energy supply, every regional energy system will be specific, because of local specific climatic and geographical conditions and consumption patterns. Based on the two major energy sources all regions can be divided into two categories: PV and Wind energy based regions. Moreover, local conditions will not only influence the optimal generation mix, but also optimal storage capacities choice. In this work we observe a strong coupling between PV and short-term storage utilisation in all major regions in the world: in the PV generation based energy systems short-term storage utilisation is much higher than in wind-based systems. Finally, PV-based energy systems demand a significant capacity for short-term storage, the more the more PV generation takes place locally.
Presentation on the occasion of the 22nd SolarPACES, Abu Dhabi, October 12, 2016.
Globally, small islands below 100,000 inhabitants represent a large number of diesel based mini-grids. With volatile fossil fuel costs which are most likely to increase in the long-run and competitive renewable energy technologies the introduction of such sustainable power generation system seems a viable and environmental friendly option. Nevertheless the implementation of renewable energies on small islands is quite low based on high transaction costs and missing knowledge according to the market potential.
Presenting boundary conditions for the economic and environmental utilization of geothermal technology, this is the first book to provide basic knowledge on the topic in such detail. The editor is the coordinator of the European Geothermic Research Initiative, while the authors are experts for the various geological situations in Europe with high temperature reservoirs in shallow and deep horizons. With its perspectives for R&D in geothermic technology concluding each chapter, this ready reference will be of great value to scientists and decision-makers in research and politics, as well as those giving courses in petroleum engineering, for example.
According to the latest Global Tracking Framework (2015), 18% of the global and 57% of the African population live without access to electricity services—a key impediment towards social and economic growth. Accelerating access to electricity requires, inter alia, strategies and programmes that effectively address and account for the geographical, infrastructural and socioeconomic characteristics of a country or region. This paper focuses on considering these characteristics by developing a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to inform electrification planning and strategies. The methodology is applied to Nigeria in order to identify the optimal mix of electrification options, ranging from grid extensions to mini-grid and off-grid solutions. The case study illustrates how this optimal mix is influenced by a range of parameters—including population density, existing and planned transmission networks and power plants, economic activities, tariffs for grid-based electricity, technology costs for mini-grid and off-grid systems and fuel costs for consumers. For a certain level of energy access, on-grid connections would be optimal for the majority of the new connections in Nigeria; grid extension constitutes the lowest cost option for approximately 86% of the newly electrified population in this modelling effort with 2030 as the time horizon. However, there are some remote areas with low population densities where a mini-grid or a stand-alone solution are the most economic options; deploying some combination of solar, wind, hydro and diesel technologies depending on the locational resource availability.
Power-to-gas (PtG) technology has received considerable attention in recent years. However, it has been rather difficult to find profitable business models and niche markets so far. PtG systems can be applied in a broad variety of input and output conditions, mainly determined by prices for electricity, hydrogen, oxygen, heat, natural gas, bio-methane, fossil CO2 emissions, bio-CO2 and grid services, but also full load hours and industrial scaling. Optimized business models are based on an integrated value chain approach for a most beneficial combination of input and output parameters. The financial success is evaluated by a standard annualized profit and loss calculation and a subsequent return on equity consideration. Two cases of PtG integration into an existing pulp mill as well as a nearby bio-diesel plant are taken into account. Commercially available PtG technology is found to be profitable in case of a flexible operation mode offering electricity grid services. Next generation technology, available at the end of the 2010s, in combination with renewables certificates for the transportation sector could generate a return on equity of up to 100% for optimized conditions in an integrated value chain approach. This outstanding high profitability clearly indicates the potential for major PtG markets to be developed rather in the transportation sector and chemical industry than in the electricity sector as seasonal storage option as often proposed.
Price declines and volume growth of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems are analysed using the learning curve methodology and compared with other forms of solar electricity generation. Logarithmic regression analysis determines a learning rate of 18% for CPV systems with 90% confidence of that rate being between 14 and 22%, which is higher than the learning rates of other solar generation systems (11% for CSP and 12 to 14% for PV). Current CPV system prices are competitive with PV and CSP, which, when combined with the higher learning rate, indicates that CPV is likely to further improve its marketability. A target price of 1 /W in 2020. © 2014 The Authors. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
People in rural regions of various developing countries suffer on having no access to modern forms of energy, in particular electricity. This work is focussed on regions inhabited by these people and presents insights on the short financial amortization periods of solar home systems and photovoltaic pico systems. With amortization periods of about 6 to 18 months, pico systems represent a capitalized value of about 10 to 45 times the original capital expenditures at the point of full financial amortization. For a significantly higher electricity demand hybrid PV mini-grids might be an excellent solution for rural electrification. However the economics are still a challenge. Based on excellent economics of small PV applications the total global residential small PV market potential is estimated to about 8 GWp and 80 bn€. The total PV-based off-grid market potential for the not yet electrified people might be estimated to about 70 GW and roughly 750 bn€.
In terms of levelized cost of electricity, renewable energies are able to compete with cost of conventional grid electricity, as of today in relevant regions of the world. Partially, electricity being generated by renewable energy sources reached to be less expensive than conventional electricity from the grid. Thus, an electricity supply by renewable energy sources becomes more and more attractive. Furthermore, a decentralized electricity generation appears to be reasonable. This, enables everyone to generate electricity at the place where it is consumed, reducing cost by less grid electricity demand. The renewable energy source solar irradiation can be used in a decentralised manner, whereas a combination with energy storage systems is needed since the fluctuating energy flow has to be adapted to the load profile of human activities. This combination is about to enhance high shares of self consumed electricity in ones electricity demand.
This paper gives an overview on grid-parity for photovoltaic systems with energy storage for Germany and some more regions of the world. Residential systems are focused. System configurations as a function of specific factors like regional economics, typical consumption profiles and geographical conditions are analysed.
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development.
Brazil, China, India and South Africa have each worked to improve access to electricity services. While many of the challenges faced by these countries are similar, the means of addressing them varied in their application and effectiveness. This report analyses the four country profiles, determining the pre-requisites to successful rural electrification policies.
This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
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