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Transition to a 100% renewable energy system and the role of storage technologies: A case study of Iran
Abstract
This work presents a pathway for the transition to a 100% renewable energy (RE) system by 2050 for Iran. An hourly resolved model is simulated to investigate the total power capacity required from 2015 to 2050 in 5-year time steps to fulfil the electricity demand for Iran. In addition, shares of various RE resources and storage technologies have been estimated for the applied years, and all periods before in 5-year time steps. The model takes the 2015 installed power plant capacities, corresponding lifetimes and total electrical energy demand to compute and optimize the mix of RE plants needed to be installed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. The optimization is carried out on the basis of assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. Moreover, the role of storage technologies in the energy system, and integration of the power sector with desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors are examined. Our results reveal that RE technologies can fulfil all electricity demand by the year 2050 at a price level of about 32-44 €/MWhel depending on the sectorial integration. Moreover, the combination of solar PV and battery storage is found as a least cost solution after 2030 for Iran. 1. Introduction A transition to an energy system based on 100% renewable energy (RE) is not only possible but also is necessary to respond to rapidly increasing energy demand and address the current climate crisis. However, variability of renewable sources (in particular solar and wind) poses concerns regarding the reliability and cost of an energy system that derives a large fraction of its energy from these sources. This has led to the emergence of energy storage as a key technology in the management of larger shares of energy from renewable sources. Sustainable energy scenarios have been introduced and developed for various parts of the world to highlight possible future energy systems and broaden the perspectives of decision makers on what they should take into consideration [1], [2]. Examining renewable based energy scenarios in Iran is a challenging and interesting case study because of the following country characteristics:
Supplementary resource (1)
... On the other hand, the learning curve of wind is not so sharp, i.e., the share of PV is expected to grow year by year. Such an effect had been found for instance for the case of Ukraine [80], Saudi Arabia [81], Iran [82] and India [83]. In addition, the installation of small and utility-scale PV plants is already profitable in several countries and PV electricity generation cost is forecasted to further decrease [84]. ...
In this study power generation and demand are matched through a least-cost mix of renewable energy (RE) resources and storage technologies for North America by 2030. The study is performed using an hourly resolved model based on a linear optimization algorithm. The geographical, technical and economic potentials of different forms of RE resources enable the option of building a super grid between different North American regions. North America (including the U.S., Canada and Mexico in this paper), is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. Four scenarios have been evaluated: region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and an integrated scenario. The levelised cost of electricity is found to be quite attractive in such a system, with the range from 63 €/MWhel in a decentralized case and 42 €/MWhel in a more centralized and integrated scenario. Electrical grid interconnections significantly reduce the storage requirement and overall cost of the energy system. Among all RE resources, wind and solar PV are found to be the least-cost options and hence the main contributors to fossil fuel substitution. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option at a modest cost. However, such a tremendous transition will not be possible in a short time if policy-makers, energy investors and other relevant organizations do not support the proposed system.
Technical Report "Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector", published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017
A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is feasible at every hour throughout the year and more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will.
Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050 . The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050.
Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is 52 €/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to 70 €/MWh in 2015.
Solar PV and battery storage drive most of the 100% renewable electricity supply due to a significant decline in costs during the transition.
Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally.
Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. Solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050.
Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly short-term (diurnal) storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage.
100% renewables bring GHG emissions in the electricity sector down to zero, drastically reduce total losses in power generation and create 36 million jobs by 2050.
Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eq in 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines.
The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system. Operation and maintenance jobs increase from 20% of the total direct energy jobs in 2015 to 48% of the total jobs in 2050 that implies more stable employment chances and economic growth globally.
The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.
In recent years, photovoltaic (PV) technology has experienced a rapid cost reduction. This trend is expected to continue, which in many countries drives interest in utility-scale PV power plants. The main disadvantage of such plants is that they operate only when the sun is shining. The installation of PV modules together with energy storage and/or fossil fuel backup is a way to solve that issue, but consequently increases the costs. In the last few years, however, lithium-ion batteries as well have shown a promising price reduction. This paper studies the competitiveness of a hybrid power plant that combines a PV system, lithium-ion battery and gas turbine (GT) compared to conventional fossil-fuel power plants (coal and natural gas-fired) with focus on the battery cost. To fulfil the demand an auxiliary GT is used in the hybrid PV plant, but its annual generation is limited to 20% of the total output. The metric for the comparison of the different technologies is the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The installation of the plants is showcased in Morocco, a country with excellent solar resources. Future market scenarios for 2020 and 2030 are considered. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the key parameters that influence LCOE.
The Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) is the technology pillar of the EU's energy and climate policy. This report contains assessments of energy technology reference indicators (ETRI) and it is aimed at providing independent and up-to-date cost and performance characteristics of the present and future European energy technology portfolio. It is meant to complement the Technology Map of SETIS. Combined these two reports provide:
* techno-economic data projections for the modelling community and policy makers, e.g.: capital and operating costs, and thermal efficiencies and technical lifetimes;
* greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumptions;
* an overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance;
* a useful tool for policymakers for helping to identify future priorities for research, development and demonstration (RD&D);
The ETRI report covers the time frame 2010 to 2050. This first version of the report focuses on electricity generation technologies, but it also includes electrical transmission grids, energy storage systems, and heat pumps.
Need to transform the energy system towards 100% renewable generation is well understood and such a transformation has already started. However, this transformation will be full of challenges and there will be no standard solution for energy supply, every regional energy system will be specific, because of local specific climatic and geographical conditions and consumption patterns. Based on the two major energy sources all regions can be divided into two categories: PV and Wind energy based regions. Moreover, local conditions will not only influence the optimal generation mix, but also optimal storage capacities choice. In this work we observe a strong coupling between PV and short-term storage utilisation in all major regions in the world: in the PV generation based energy systems short-term storage utilisation is much higher than in wind-based systems. Finally, PV-based energy systems demand a significant capacity for short-term storage, the more the more PV generation takes place locally.
Presentation on the occasion of the 22nd SolarPACES, Abu Dhabi, October 12, 2016.
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy (RE) sources more important than in the past. COP21 resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the 21st century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. To be more precise, whenever the costs of renewable resources decrease, the interest in using them increases. Therefore, suppliers and decision-makers have recently been motivated to invest in RE rather than fossil fuels technologies even though large untapped fossil fuel resources are available. Among RE technologies, Iran has a very high potential for solar energy, followed by wind, and complemented by hydropower, geothermal energy, biomass and waste-to-energy. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% RE system in Iran using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of RE technologies, least cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a country-wide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the country-wide scenario, RE generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand, however, in the integrated scenario, the RE generated was able to fulfil not only the electricity demand of the power sector but also the substantial demand for electricity for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding the sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 €/MWh to 40.3 €/MWh. The LCOE of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison to other low-carbon but high cost alternatives such as CCS and nuclear energy. The levelized cost of water and the levelized cost of gas are 1.5 €/m3 and 107.8 €/MWhLHV, respectively. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.
Iran is the 17th most populated country in the world with several regions facing high or extremely high water stress. It is estimated that half the population live in regions with 30% of Iran’s freshwater resources. The combination of climate change, increasing national water demand and mismanagement of water resources is forecasted to worsen the situation in Iran. This has led to an increase in interest in the use of non-traditional water supplies to meet the increasing water demand. In this paper it is shown how the future water demand of Iran can be met through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants powered by 100% renewable energy systems, at a cost level competitive with that of current SWRO plants powered by fossil plants in Iran. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 water demand of Iran is estimated to be about 215 million m3/day compared to the 175,000 m3/day installed SWRO desalination capacity of the total 809,607 m3/day desalination capacity in the year 2015. The optimal hybrid renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) fixed-tilted, PV single-axis tracking, Wind, Battery and Power-to-Gas (PtG) plants. The levelized cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.50 €/m3 – 2 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The total system required to meet the 2030 Iranian water demand is estimated to cost 1177 billion € of initial investments. Thus, our work proves that the water crisis in Iran can be averted in a lucrative and sustainable manner.
Globally, small islands below 100,000 inhabitants represent a large number of diesel based mini-grids. With volatile fossil fuel costs which are most likely to increase in the long-run and competitive renewable energy technologies the introduction of such sustainable power generation system seems a viable and environmental friendly option. Nevertheless the implementation of renewable energies on small islands is quite low based on high transaction costs and missing knowledge according to the market potential.
In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
With the heightened awareness of global environmental issues of greenhouse gas emissions by fossil fuels as non-renewable energy resources, the application of renewable energies (REs) has emerged as one of the most significant policies in most of the countries throughout the world. Although Iran is blessed with high potential of RE resources such as solar, wind, and geothermal, development of such resources, however, has been neglected due to the various reasons. Considering the long time needed to develop and deploy RE resources, a long-term planning is required in this area. Therefore, applying the scenario planning method, this research develops four scenarios in Iran's 2025 vision, through a combination of the changes in energy consumption and RE generation: green path, standardization , fossil energy, and non-targeted subsidy. Developed scenarios are then compared with the government plan for utilizing REs in 10 % of total electric power generation in a 20-year vision. Results indicate that standardization and fossil energy are the most probable scenarios. Green path is the most optimistic scenario for the country, suggesting the goal of producing 10 % of total electricity share through REs could be achievable by 2025. And the non-targeted subsidy is the most pessimistic and unexpected scenario for the country.
It has been shown that the PV module price will most likely to be halved again and BoS price will decrease by more than 35% by 2030, leading to an overall PV system CAPEX reduction of about 45%. It must be noted that this development does not require any major technology breakthroughs but is a natural cause from continuing efforts in reducing materials use, impoving efficiency and developing manufacturing processes. At the same time, PV system OPEX is expected to decrease by 30%. PV LCOE will decrease by 30-50% from 2014 to 2030, depending on the volume growth and learning rate. Cost of capital is by far more significant than CAPEX or OPEX: a 8% percentage point increase in real WACC will double the LCOE. It is the most urgent task for the solar industry to improve the bankability of PV, but at the same time for the policy makers to create a stable environment for investments, in order to decrease the cost of capital and thus the LCOE of PV.
Residential and commercial PV electricity is already competitive with retail market electricity in all selected countries. Parity with wholesale market electricity will be reached by 2030 almost everywhere. There is every reason to believe that this development will continue after 2030 because there is still a huge improvement potential in various PV technologies. Figure 13 gives the PV LCOE for a 1 p ground-mounted system until 2050 assuming that the annual market would stay at the 200 GWp level, learning rate at 20%, and module efficiency improves 0.4 percentage points per year from 2030 to 2050. This would mean that global cumulative PV capacity would be 5700 GWp in 2050 and average module efficiency about 30%. PV system price would decrease to about third from 2014 and OPEX is assumed to be halved. It can be seen that in Spain the LCOE in 2050 would be about 20 €/MWh and in the UK and Sweden below 40 €/MWh with a 5% real WACC, or about 60% less in 2050 compared with 2014. It can be concluded that PV will probably be the cheapest form of electricity generation in most countries in the coming decades.
Water has a significant role in all our daily activities and its overall consumption is growing every day because of increasing scheme of mankind living standards. Iran is located in the dry belt of the earth, where nearly 70% of its area is located in arid and semi-arid regions. At the present time, Iran is experiencing a serious water crisis. It has been projected that the total per capita annual renewable water of the country will reach to about 800 m3 by 2021, which is less than the global threshold of 1000 m3. In this context, seawater desalination seems to be a potential solution to meet the water supply and demand balance in Iran as the country is surrounded by three main water bodies of the Caspian Sea at northern and Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman at the southern borders. Annually, about 120 million cubic meter of freshwater supply is from conventional desalination plants centralized in the southern coastal regions of Iran. The fossil-fuel powered desalination systems are no longer sustainable to overcome the water crisis in the country due to both depletion risks of available energy resources and increase of greenhouse gas emissions. This is while that Iran has excellent solar energy potentials of about 15.3 kWh/m2/day, which can effectively be harnessed to run desalination processes. Therefore, in the modern time, solar desalination is an emerging solution to close the water gap in the country by considering the required change in terms of policy, financing, and regional cooperation to make this alternative method of desalination a success.
Power-to-gas (PtG) technology has received considerable attention in recent years. However, it has been rather difficult to find profitable business models and niche markets so far. PtG systems can be applied in a broad variety of input and output conditions, mainly determined by prices for electricity, hydrogen, oxygen, heat, natural gas, bio-methane, fossil CO2 emissions, bio-CO2 and grid services, but also full load hours and industrial scaling. Optimized business models are based on an integrated value chain approach for a most beneficial combination of input and output parameters. The financial success is evaluated by a standard annualized profit and loss calculation and a subsequent return on equity consideration. Two cases of PtG integration into an existing pulp mill as well as a nearby bio-diesel plant are taken into account. Commercially available PtG technology is found to be profitable in case of a flexible operation mode offering electricity grid services. Next generation technology, available at the end of the 2010s, in combination with renewables certificates for the transportation sector could generate a return on equity of up to 100% for optimized conditions in an integrated value chain approach. This outstanding high profitability clearly indicates the potential for major PtG markets to be developed rather in the transportation sector and chemical industry than in the electricity sector as seasonal storage option as often proposed.
Despite extensive renewable energy sources (RES) potentials in Iran, their share in current energy mix remains minor comparatively to fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Government strategies and targets for deployment of RES in Iran exist. Also several scientific works were written on technical and economic feasibility of such solution. However, the question about public acceptance in Iran of energy transition based on deployment of RES remains open. It this research we assume that socio-psychological factors might play a significant role in public acceptance to use RES. We base our research on the theory of planned behavior (TPB), which we expand to investigate the question of willingness to use and public acceptance of RES. As one of the methods of analysis, we conducted a survey (N=260) among Iranian students in the universities of the city of Esfahan, in the center of Iran. We assume that these stakeholders will play a key role in deployment of RES in the future, they will be active as energy project managers, as they are currently studying engineering disciplines, and might contribute to the energy transition in Iran. We analyzed empirical data from the survey with the help of structural equation modeling. Our results show that moral norms, attitudes and perceived behavioral control are significant factors influencing willingness to use and public acceptance of RES, while subjective norms and self-identity do not play a significant role.
Price declines and volume growth of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems are analysed using the learning curve methodology and compared with other forms of solar electricity generation. Logarithmic regression analysis determines a learning rate of 18% for CPV systems with 90% confidence of that rate being between 14 and 22%, which is higher than the learning rates of other solar generation systems (11% for CSP and 12 to 14% for PV). Current CPV system prices are competitive with PV and CSP, which, when combined with the higher learning rate, indicates that CPV is likely to further improve its marketability. A target price of 1 /W in 2020. © 2014 The Authors. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Annual available solar resource is dependent on global horizontal irradiation (GHI) and PV systems. Relevant tracking and non-tracking PV systems are presented based on Hay-Davis-Klucher-Reindl (HDKR) approach. Results of the analysis are shown for all PV systems and all regions in the world. Solar resources are weighted by global population distribution, regarded per country, continent and region and compared to area weighted, maximum and minimum irradiation per geographic entity. Global electricity weighted irradiation for fixed optimally tilted PV systems is about 1,690 kWh/m²/y, significantly less than global population and area weighted irradiation of about 1,850 and 1,780 kWh/m²/y, respectively.
In terms of levelized cost of electricity, renewable energies are able to compete with cost of conventional grid electricity, as of today in relevant regions of the world. Partially, electricity being generated by renewable energy sources reached to be less expensive than conventional electricity from the grid. Thus, an electricity supply by renewable energy sources becomes more and more attractive. Furthermore, a decentralized electricity generation appears to be reasonable. This, enables everyone to generate electricity at the place where it is consumed, reducing cost by less grid electricity demand. The renewable energy source solar irradiation can be used in a decentralised manner, whereas a combination with energy storage systems is needed since the fluctuating energy flow has to be adapted to the load profile of human activities. This combination is about to enhance high shares of self consumed electricity in ones electricity demand.
This paper gives an overview on grid-parity for photovoltaic systems with energy storage for Germany and some more regions of the world. Residential systems are focused. System configurations as a function of specific factors like regional economics, typical consumption profiles and geographical conditions are analysed.
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
a b s t r a c t In this study, a ten minute period measuring wind speed data for year 2007 at 10 m, 30 m and 40 m heights for different places in Iran, has been statistically analyzed to determine the potential of wind power generation. Sixty eight sites have been studied. The objective is to evaluate the most important characteristics of wind energy in the studied sites. The statistical attitudes permit us to estimate the mean wind speed, the wind speed distribution function, the mean wind power density and the wind rose in the site at three different heights. Some local phenomena are also considered in the characterization of the site.
Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development.
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