Conference Paper

Transition to a 100% renewable energy system and the role of storage technologies: A case study of Iran

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Abstract

This work presents a pathway for the transition to a 100% renewable energy (RE) system by 2050 for Iran. An hourly resolved model is simulated to investigate the total power capacity required from 2015 to 2050 in 5-year time steps to fulfil the electricity demand for Iran. In addition, shares of various RE resources and storage technologies have been estimated for the applied years, and all periods before in 5-year time steps. The model takes the 2015 installed power plant capacities, corresponding lifetimes and total electrical energy demand to compute and optimize the mix of RE plants needed to be installed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. The optimization is carried out on the basis of assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. Moreover, the role of storage technologies in the energy system, and integration of the power sector with desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors are examined. Our results reveal that RE technologies can fulfil all electricity demand by the year 2050 at a price level of about 32-44 €/MWhel depending on the sectorial integration. Moreover, the combination of solar PV and battery storage is found as a least cost solution after 2030 for Iran. 1. Introduction A transition to an energy system based on 100% renewable energy (RE) is not only possible but also is necessary to respond to rapidly increasing energy demand and address the current climate crisis. However, variability of renewable sources (in particular solar and wind) poses concerns regarding the reliability and cost of an energy system that derives a large fraction of its energy from these sources. This has led to the emergence of energy storage as a key technology in the management of larger shares of energy from renewable sources. Sustainable energy scenarios have been introduced and developed for various parts of the world to highlight possible future energy systems and broaden the perspectives of decision makers on what they should take into consideration [1], [2]. Examining renewable based energy scenarios in Iran is a challenging and interesting case study because of the following country characteristics:

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... On the other hand, the learning curve of wind is not so sharp, i.e., the share of PV is expected to grow year by year. Such an effect had been found for instance for the case of Ukraine [80], Saudi Arabia [81], Iran [82] and India [83]. In addition, the installation of small and utility-scale PV plants is already profitable in several countries and PV electricity generation cost is forecasted to further decrease [84]. ...
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Technical Report
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In terms of levelized cost of electricity, renewable energies are able to compete with cost of conventional grid electricity, as of today in relevant regions of the world. Partially, electricity being generated by renewable energy sources reached to be less expensive than conventional electricity from the grid. Thus, an electricity supply by renewable energy sources becomes more and more attractive. Furthermore, a decentralized electricity generation appears to be reasonable. This, enables everyone to generate electricity at the place where it is consumed, reducing cost by less grid electricity demand. The renewable energy source solar irradiation can be used in a decentralised manner, whereas a combination with energy storage systems is needed since the fluctuating energy flow has to be adapted to the load profile of human activities. This combination is about to enhance high shares of self consumed electricity in ones electricity demand. This paper gives an overview on grid-parity for photovoltaic systems with energy storage for Germany and some more regions of the world. Residential systems are focused. System configurations as a function of specific factors like regional economics, typical consumption profiles and geographical conditions are analysed.
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This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
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a b s t r a c t In this study, a ten minute period measuring wind speed data for year 2007 at 10 m, 30 m and 40 m heights for different places in Iran, has been statistically analyzed to determine the potential of wind power generation. Sixty eight sites have been studied. The objective is to evaluate the most important characteristics of wind energy in the studied sites. The statistical attitudes permit us to estimate the mean wind speed, the wind speed distribution function, the mean wind power density and the wind rose in the site at three different heights. Some local phenomena are also considered in the characterization of the site.
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Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development.
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