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Die Szenariotechnik am Beispiel des Projektes "Zukunft der Mobilität"
Abstract
Mobilität ist in der heutigen Gesellschaft eine wichtige Voraussetzung für berufliche Tätigkeiten sowie die Teilhabe der Menschen an sozialen Kontakten und Ereignissen. Mobilität ist auch eine Voraussetzung für eine leistungsfähige Wirtschaft. Aufgabe der Politik und staatlicher Institutionen ist es daher, ein hohes Maß an Mobilität zu gewährleisten. Sie manifestiert sich in Form von Verkehr auf der Straße, der Schiene, dem Wasser und in der Luft. Mobil sein zu können, steigert unser Selbstwertgefühl und schafft Zufriedenheit; allerdings hat Verkehr auch Schattenseiten: Staus, Verspätungen, Emissionen und Unfälle.
... [6,18]. It is also a well-known tool for describing future mobility developments [23] and, along with numerous flanking studies, e.g. Neue autoMobilität 2 [8], provides the basis for defining the future scenario. ...
Trends such as autonomous driving, non-driving related activities and digitalisation are contributing to a revolution in vehicle concept design. An aspect of this is the consideration of future use cases in shaping vehicle architectures. Future user scenarios can help identify relevant use cases, from which the user needs and system requirements can be derived. The derived requirements need to be matched to vehicle functions and architectural modules that can fulfil them. However, the optimal combination of functions and modules can be difficult to identify due to the numerous possibilities. The aim of this paper is to apply a matrix-based methodology that enables the systematic matching of requirements to vehicle functions and/or modules, as well as the identification of an ideal module/function combination for all the considered requirements. An example is presented that considers a requirement specification that has been derived from predetermined user needs. The requirements are matched to suitable functions/modules and the best possible combinations are determined using the proposed matrix-based methodology. Two optimal combinations are selected, one for a vehicle in the entry level segment and the other for a premium vehicle. The results indicate it is possible to determine an optimal combination for both vehicle segments considered, as well as the substantial influence the rating parameters have on the end result. Lastly, it is shown how the results can be applied by concept designers in order to draft tailored, user-orientated interior concepts.
... It is examined how individual factors will develop in the future and what influence they will have in different combinations on the overall system. On this basis, potentials and challenges, e.g. of new technologies, are systematically discussed and future scenarios for the mobility of tomorrow are created [4,5]. ...
Mobility requirements are changing, and with them the demands on mobility carriers and infrastructures in terms of flexibility, reliability, cost-effectiveness, energy efficiency and environmental compatibility. Because of increasing digitization in recent years, new solution approaches and business models are coming into question, for example, through new types of automated and networked vehicle systems and functions. The IT advances enable a complete rethink of the entire mobility system with all associated subsystems such as the vehicle. The opportunities that digitization offers for the mobility system and the conceivable future scenarios for the mobility of tomorrow are currently being investigated in the “Zukunftslabor Mobilität” research project. This paper briefly reports on the project and systematically examines the influence of digitization on the mobility system. In detail, the various factors influencing the mobility system are discussed. The current situation and the alternative development paths or projections for the mobility of tomorrow are systematically recorded, taking into account the digitization trends. Subsequently, developed future images and applications are derived, as well as a short outlook on future activities is given.
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