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Review of Canadian Deep GHG Emission Reduction Studies: Some Near-Term Lessons for Stakeholders and Policy Makers

  • September 2016
  • State: In Progress
Authors:
Chris Bataille
Chris Bataille
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Bataille Review of Canadian Deep GHG reduction studies - working paper Nov 17 2017
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... The Solutions Project also includes significant improvements to efficiency that enables demand reductions large enough to make up for upper limits to installed capacity. For a more in-depth discussion of the different merits and underlying assumptions of these models, see the methods above (section 3.7.2) and ref. 91,109,118 . We have also included committed emissions from existing and proposed fossil fuel infrastructure, which includes all utilities and transport, for comparison from ref. 49 . ...
Safe ends with just means: Charting a course to a fossil fuel free economy for Canada and beyond
Thesis
Full-text available
  • Oct 2022
In this dissertation, I bring together a broad area of research in climate science and policy, ethics, ecological economics, political economy, and environmental sciences. I aim to cut through complexity and present clear conclusions that follow from decades of scholarship that has not yet made the impression on policymakers or the public that it deserves. This dissertation comprises three papers: 1) a critical overview of fair shares and decarbonization scenarios, and a way to reconcile what should be done with what experts think can be done (with a Canadian case study); 2) a framework for climate testing proposed fossil fuel infrastructure that can be used to evaluate an individual project's compatibility with global or domestic emissions reduction targets (with a case study of Canadian gas); and 3) an analysis of the potential for a shift towards services to mitigate GHG emissions and other environmental impacts. The results of paper 1 show that under a relatively ambitious but still insufficient decarbonization program, Canada is projected to accrue an emissions debt of 6 to 52 GtCO2e by 2050, which could be valued at $0.8 trillion to $6.5 trillion using the best estimate for the social cost of carbon dioxide. Paper 2 concludes current plans to extract Canadian gas are unequivocally at odds with national and global climate efforts, and that even climate action in line with an inequitable share of ~2–3°C of warming necessitates an immediate and rapid phase out of gas extraction within years. Papers 1 and 2 contribute policy tools needed for Canada and similar wealthy fossil fuel producing nations to do their fair share of a global energy transition, even when a domestic energy transition is limited by political or technological constraints. Paper 3 shows that when counting household consumption of people as part of the sectors that employ them, supposedly ‘clean’ sectors like services are just as harmful as ‘dirty’ ones. This exposes the limited potential to reduce environmental impacts by growing the service sector, refuting claims made by advocates of green growth via an explosion of the knowledge economy. These findings may be used to inform policymaking, so that appropriate emphasis is placed on behavioural, technological, and structural changes to the economy. Together, realizations from this dissertation can be used to craft fair and practical policy for a just transition for Canada, through integrated domestic and foreign policy, which also could serve as a model for other affluent nations.
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Reconsidering development by reflecting on climate change
Article
Full-text available
  • Nov 2015
[The final article is available on springer.com] Reconsidering development by reflecting on climate change means rethinking development goals, more than pursuing climate targets. Much analysis in the development–climate literature has framed development as a co-benefit, while the objective has been climate stabilization. This misses the point that development drives emissions, not vice versa. A different approach must address low-emission technologies, but also the high-emission parts of ‘development’. Politically, climate change must be understood as a development problem. In this conception, a key task for climate policy is to explore different development paths, with the difference in emissions being a result. Development goals need to be represented as explicit objectives, both in analytical modelling and as political goals. Methods that treat climate policy as a self-control mechanism in the development system, or back-cast from development goals, need to be improved. The article further considers levers to change development paths, considering lessons on how to influence change in complex systems. The obsession of the existing economic order is with economic growth and development; what needs to be considered is the quality of development and what it means to live well. A social contract for low-carbon development requires the rich to pay for mitigation, use less, and assist the poor; lift the poor out of poverty; and change the aspirations of the middle class. Such a contract requires thinking beyond short-term political and economic time frames, with much longer-term thinking and vision.
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100% Clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States
Article
Full-text available
This study presents roadmaps for each of the 50 United States to convert their all-purpose energy systems (for electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) to ones powered entirely by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The plans contemplate 80-85% of existing energy replaced by 2030 and 100% replaced by 2050. Conversion would reduce each state’s end-use power demand by a mean of ~39.3% with ~82.4% of this due to the efficiency of electrification and the rest due to end-use energy efficiency improvements. Year 2050 end-use U.S. all-purpose load would be met with ~30.9% onshore wind, ~19.1% offshore wind, ~30.7% utility-scale photovoltaics (PV), ~7.2% rooftop PV, ~7.3% concentrated solar power (CSP) with storage, ~1.25% geothermal power, ~0.37% wave power, ~0.14% tidal power, and ~3.01% hydroelectric power. Based on a parallel grid integration study, an additional 4.4% and 7.2% of power beyond that needed for annual loads would be supplied by CSP with storage and solar thermal for heat, respectively, for peaking and grid stability. Over all 50 states, converting would provide ~3.9 million 40-year construction jobs and ~2.0 million 40-year operation jobs for the energy facilities alone, the sum of which would outweigh the ~3.9 million jobs lost in the conventional energy sector. Converting would also eliminate ~62,000 (19,000-115,000) U.S. air pollution premature mortalities/yr today and ~46,000 (12,000-104,000) in 2050, avoiding ~$600 ($85-$2,400) bil./yr (2013 dollars) in 2050, equivalent to ~3.6 (0.5-14.3) percent of the 2014 U.S. gross domestic product. Converting would further eliminate ~$3.3 (1.9-7.1) tril./yr in 2050 global warming costs to the world due to U.S. emissions. These plans will result in each person in the U.S. in 2050 saving ~$260 (190-320)/yr in energy costs ($2013 dollars) and U.S. health and global climate costs per person decreasing by ~$1,500 (210-6,000)/yr and ~$8,300 (4,700-17,600)/yr, respectively. The new footprint over land required will be ~0.42% of U.S. land. The spacing area between wind turbines, which can be used for multiple purposes, will be ~1.6% of U.S. land. Thus, 100% conversions are technically and economically feasible with little downside. These roadmaps may therefore reduce social and political barriers to implementing clean-energy policies.
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What Can We Learn from the Grand Policy Experiment? Lessons from SO2 Allowance Trading
Article
Full-text available
The most ambitious application ever attempted of a market-based approach to environmental protection has been for the control of acid rain under the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990, which established a sulfur dioxide allowance trading program. This essay identifies lessons that can be learned from this grand experiment in economically oriented environmental policy. The author examines positive political economy lessons, asking why this system was adopted from acid-rain control in 1990, and he considers normative lessons that can be learned from the program's structure and performance, focusing on lessons for the design and implementation of future systems. Copyright 1998 by American Economic Association.
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The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy
Article
  • Jun 2016
Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies. Policy relevance In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.
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Improving deep decarbonization modelling capacity for developed and developing country contexts
Article
  • May 2016
Energy models are essential for the development of national or regional deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), providing the necessary analytical framework to systematically explore the system transitions that are required. However, this is challenging due to the long time horizon, the numerous data requirements and the need for transparent, credible approaches that can provide insights into complex transitions. This article explores how this challenge has been met to date, based on a review of the literature and the experiences of practitioners, drawing in particular on the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), a collaborative effort by 16 national modelling teams. The article finds that there are a range of modelling approaches that have been used across different country contexts, chosen for different reasons, with recognized strengths and weaknesses. The key motivations for use of a given approach include being fit-for-purpose, having in-country capacity and the intertwined goals of transparency, communicability and policy credibility. From the review, a conceptual decision framework for DDP analysis is proposed. This three step process incorporates policy priorities, national characteristics and the model-agnostic principles that drive model choices, considering the needs and capabilities of developed and developing countries, and subject to data and analytical practicalities. Finally an agenda for the further development of modelling approaches is proposed, which is vital for strengthening capacity. These include a focus on model linking, incorporating behaviour and policy impacts, the flexibility to handle distinctive energy systems, incorporating wider environmental constraints and the development of entry-level tools. The latter three are critical for application in developing countries. Policy relevance Following the Paris Agreement, it is essential that modelling approaches are available to enable governments to plan how to decarbonize their economies in the long term. This article takes stock of current practices, identifies the strengths and weaknesses of existing approaches and proposes how capacity can be strengthened. It also provides some practical guidance on the process of choosing modelling approaches, given national priorities and circumstances. This is particularly relevant as countries revisit their Nationally Determined Contributions to meet the global objective of remaining well below a 2°C average global temperature increase.
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Policy uncertainty and diffusion of carbon capture and storage in an optimal region
Article
  • Feb 2015
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has the potential to dramatically reduce GHG emissions in energy supply and industry. However, its high costs mean that uncertainty about the stringency of future climate policy may dissuade firms from investing in this technology. This article explores the relationship between firms expectations of government policy and investment in CCS. First, it synthesizes recent cost estimates for CCS applications in electricity generation and oil sands extraction in Canada. Second, it uses these estimates to investigate the potential impact of policy stringency and uncertainty on CCS adoption in Alberta, a Canadian province with near-ideal CCS potential. The results suggest investment in CCS, and by extension other costly abatement actions, will not occur unless governments create a more stringent and durable climate policy environment than currently exists. Policy relevance This paper has two novel and linked objectives, the first of significant utility to researchers and energy modellers in particular, the second to climate policy analysts and decision makers. First, it synthesizes publicly available carbon capture and storage literature and develops cost estimates for key applications related to thermal electricity generation and oil sands extraction in Canada. Second, it uses these cost estimates to investigate the potential impact of policy stringency and uncertainty on carbon capture and storage adoption in Alberta, Canada. Alberta is a test case for CCS due to its fossil resources and high CO2 storage potential, and the technology’s success or failure in this jurisdiction should be of interest to policy makers elsewhere.
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Walking away from a low-carbon economy? Recent and historical trends using a regional decomposition analysis
Article
Using the latest available data, this brief article attempts to provide the first regional decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Covering eight regions of the world, determinants are estimated in relative and absolute terms for the period 1971-2010. We take the 2010 global surge in CO2 emissions as an entry point for the analysis. Overall, results show that most regions have recently performed worse than their historical trends and lack of meaningful progress is identified. Whereas specific drivers for certain regions suggest some level of continuous improvement (e.g. reduced energy intensity in Asia), they are incapable of offsetting the effects of economic growth and energy use. With the exception of Africa, most regions appear to have missed the low-carbon economy opportunity provided by the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Results suggest a lack of serious environmental effectiveness of regional policy portfolios aiming at reducing CO2 emissions. Highly ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy policies across all regions are immediately needed. Additionally, absolute reductions in CO2 emissions and energy use from fossil fuels are urgently required in rich regions if we are to align production and consumption patterns with maintaining global warming below the 2°C threshold.
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See www 17 Council of Canadian Academies Technology and Policy Options for a Low-Emission Energy System in Canada. Ottawa. The expert panel on energy use and climate change, Council of Canadian Academies
  • May 2015
  • Ddpp Ibid
Ibid, DDPP (2015). See www.deepdecarbonization.org 15 http://deepdecarbonization.org/ddpp-reports/ 16 http://iet.polymtl.ca/en/tefp/ 17 Council of Canadian Academies. 2015. Technology and Policy Options for a Low-Emission Energy System in Canada. Ottawa. The expert panel on energy use and climate change, Council of Canadian Academies.Accessed May 23 2016. http://www.scienceadvice.ca/en/assessments/completed/energy-use.aspx 18 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/energy-policies-of-iea-countries-canada-2015review.html 19 http://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/429542/publication.html 20 http://nrt-trn.ca/climate/getting-to-2050