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Helping Citizens Decide in Referendums: The Moderating Effect of Political Sophistication on the Use of the Information and Choice Questionnaire as a Decision Aid
Abstract
Voters often lack sufficient knowledge to make educated decisions. We investigated how a decision aid-–the Information and Choice Questionnaire (ICQ)—helped them make more consistent decisions. The ICQ is designed for large-scale use and provides voters with information about a specific problem before asking them for their opinions. It provides citizens with information summarizing a full range of viable policy options and the probable consequences of each, as provided by experts. We investigated the ICQ in the context of the Dutch 2005 referendum on the European Constitutional Treaty. Respondents ( N = 340) constituted a random sample of the Dutch population. We studied the effects of the ICQ on vote preferences and the consistency of voters’ preferences shortly before the referendum. We were especially interested in the moderating role of political sophistication on the uses and effects of the ICQ. Our study confirmed that many voters had little knowledge about the European Constitution and had inconsistent preferences. The ICQ made their vote preferences more consistent, especially for those participants with lower levels of political sophistication. This suggests that this decision aid can narrow the gap between the politically sophisticated and the politically less sophisticated.
... According to Robert Dahl's understanding of an "enlightened democracy," people make political decisions in an informed way (see Mayer and Wassermair 2010, p. 173). However, public opinion research, in general, and research on voter decisions in direct democracy, in particular, have repeatedly argued that this is a very challenging goal, because in reality voters are neither capable nor willing to process all necessary information and, consequently, are most likely to make decisions based on low levels of knowledge or to rely on cues (Christin et al. 2002, p. 759;Colombo 2016;Colombo and Kriesi 2017;Neijens and De Vreese 2009). ...
... We argue that vote advice applications (VAAs) can be an effective tool in our increasingly digitized context, because they provide voters with personalized information about their own positions vis-à-vis the positions of parties or policies. Like other decision aids (Neijens and De Vreese 2009;Neijens et al. 1992), VAAs do not only provide (new) information but also potentially help voters to more efficiently structure their opinions about an issue or a person. While research on the role VAAs play in voters' opinion formation has increased over the years (Alvarez et al. 2014;Ladner 2012), it has almost exclusively focused on the electoral context, i.e., on situations when citizens vote for parties or candidates. ...
... Undecided voters are, by definition, either not yet sure how to vote or simply have not informed themselves. A "surprising" VAA result-one that provides some new information about their positions-might therefore be particularly influential (Neijens and De Vreese 2009;Zaller 1992). For these voters, the persuasive effect manifests in the VAA's message replacing their prior state of being undecided. ...
In an increasingly digitized world, vote advice applications (VAAs) seem to be effective in providing voters with personalized information about their own positions vis-à-vis parties’ positions and specific policies. Even though electoral research has increasingly paid attention to the role VAAs play in voter’s opinion formation, very few studies have examined VAAs in the context of direct-democratic decisions. This article fills this gap by providing new insights into how VAAs affect individual decision-making in popular votes theoretically and empirically. We use novel data from the referendum campaign on the 2017 new energy law in Switzerland: a VAA experiment carried out in the framework of a three-wave panel survey. In the third wave, which took place a week before the referendum, respondents were randomly assigned to a treatment group and a control group; only the former was shown the VAA and made to use it. The results indicate two main takeaways. First, that using a VAA has a tangible effect inasmuch as the share of undecided voters is smaller among the treatment than among the control group. Second, VAA usage can have both a persuasive effect (i.e., it can change vote intentions) and an intensifying effect (i.e., it can strengthen voters’ preexisting intentions).
... We expect vote choice variance to be lower amongst affluent voters, on average, who are likely to have higher levels of education and information. More informed and politically sophisticated voters tend to have more consistent vote preferences(Neijens and De Vreese 2009). ...
Many accounts of changing voting patterns in advanced industrial democracies focus on political geography. Subnational clustering of voting may indicate that place-based factors are an important determinant of political behavior. Using new methodology to decompose variation in voting, we examine whether place-based economic factors, in addition to pocketbook economic interests, are predictors of individuals' vote choices and how cohesively income groups vote. In a cross-national sample from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, we measure redistributive orientation in party voting among rich and poor voters in rich and poor regions. We argue that rich regions have strong theoretical reasons to support redistributive policies that influence their citizens' voting behavior. We document an overall preference towards less redistribution as individual income rises, but the average effect obscures considerable variability among rich and poor people that depends on their location. Rich and poor people in poor places vote significantly more for the parties opposed to redistribution than their counterparts in rich regions. By decomposing vote choice variance, we also identify the cohesiveness of class-based and region-based voting groups. We argue that cross-pressure driven by voter's individual incomes and that of their regions leads to high variability in rich voters in rich regions, in particular. Of all subgroups groups, we find the strongest voting cohesion among the rich in poor regions. Our empirical approach and findings have the potential to launch new research on the place-based effects of voting behavior.
... The literature on campaign effects suggests that EU referendums often deal with complex topics that do not necessarily map onto normal political cleavages, creating a novel choice situation for the voters (Hobolt 2006;LeDuc 2002). In this type of situation, voters lack signposts that guide the formation of their opinions and that create a context, in which how issues are framed by media and political elites can be very important for the ultimate vote choices (de Vreese 2007;LeDuc 2002;Marsh 2007;Neijens and de Vreese 2009;Schuck and de Vreese 2008). Irrespective of whether voters are actually 'persuaded' by arguments, or whether campaign effects work through either media effects and exposure to particular arguments (e.g. ...
Can voters be persuaded by referendum campaigns? This article develops a theoretical model that synthesises the existing literature on campaign effects and issue-voting by arguing that the strength of pre-existing attitudes conditions voter receptivity to campaign arguments, thereby also determining their eventual vote choice. Using original panel data for the 2015 Danish opt-out referendum, there is evidence that attitude strength matters for whether voters are responsive to persuasion during campaigns. The article finds that voters with the most strongly-held attitudes felt well informed and certain about the consequences of the vote even before the start of the campaign, whereas voters with moderately-held attitudes are found to be more prone to believe those campaign arguments that are consistent with their EU attitudes, changing their vote intentions accordingly. Finally, voters with weakly-held attitudes were equally persuadable for the No and the Yes side of the campaign, but they are also the least pre-disposed to pay attention to campaign messages. The conclusions discuss the broader implications of the findings for our understanding of EU referendum campaigns.
... Providing citizens with concrete future scenarios has been done in the past using methods such as deliberative polling or information-and-choice questionnaires (Luskin et al., 2002;Neijens and De Vreese, 2009;Neijens et al., 1992;Van Knippenberg and Daamen, 1996). The basic idea of these alternatives to mass opinion surveys is that if citizens receive information or enter in a process of deliberation where they encounter different arguments they are able to develop an informed opinion before eventually choosing one of the proposed scenarios. ...
Public opinion on the EU has received growing attention in the last decades, with an ever‐increasing number of studies examining various aspects of it. Surprisingly, most studies focus on attitudes towards the past and present of the EU, yet we know very little about public attitudes towards the future of the EU. This study helps to fill this research gap by examining attitudes towards the EU's long‐term future using a novel approach. We developed eight concrete future EU scenarios based on an inductive analysis of qualitative survey data. Subsequently, respondents (in an independent survey) ranked their top three scenarios according to individual preferences. Using multidimensional unfolding, we show that these preferences form three clusters ordered along a more versus less EU dimension. In a second step, we used multinomial logistic regression to examine not only who supports which scenario (socio‐demographics) but also which EU attitudes lead to which future preferences. The analyses identify distinct characteristics and attitudes that drive people's preference for a given scenario. Overall, we find that factors such as occupational levels or left–right attitudes are strong determinants of preferences for the future of the EU, and that specific EU support (performance and utilitarian evaluations) is more important than diffuse EU support (identity and affect).
... Previous research has continuously provided evidence of very low levels of political knowledge as a result of selective attention (Converse 1964;Delli Carpini and Keeter 1996;Neijens and de Vreese 2009). This, however, does not necessarily lead to an ignorant citizenry and thus to problems in democratic processes. ...
In the course of election campaigns, voters pay only selectively attention to particular aspects of political problems. Such selective attention is necessary because the costs of becoming competent on many political problems are great. Normatively, however, such selective attention is not desirable because it lowers the chance that voters will reach well‐balanced and competent decisions. This contribution establishes the aspects of the four most salient problems from the 2015 Swiss federal election campaign: immigration, welfare, the economy and European integration. It further reveals that selective attention is higher among those who are interested in politics and who learn problem‐specific information on salient problems, and lower among those who are well‐educated, who engage in personal discussions, who use traditional media, and who learn problem‐specific information on less salient problems. Finally, it concludes that selective attention should be avoided in order to strengthen the citizens’ level of information on political problems.
... The concept of knowledge is central to the study of political communication, where it can function as a moderator but also as an independent or dependent variable (see, e.g., Brewer, 2003 ;de Vreese & Boomgaarden, 2006 ;Neijens & de Vreese, 2009 ). Research has shown that knowledge is a powerful, observable proxy for how individuals process political information (e.g., Eveland, 2001 ), learn from news and politics , and participate in media and political discourse (de Vreese & Boomgaarden, 2006 ;Eveland & Scheufele, 2000 ). ...
... These results are in line with findings from other studies using the Information and Choice Questionnaire (e.g. Neijens 1987; van Knippenberg/Daamen 1996;Neijens/de Vreese 2009). ...
Publizistik und gesellschaftliche Verantwortung – der Titel der Festschrift für Wolfgang Donsbach ist das Credo seiner akademischen Tätigkeit. Ob als Hochschullehrer oder als Präsident der International Communication Association (ICA) oder der World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) standen und stehen die Analyse der Leistungen der Massenmedien für das politische System, der Stellenwert eines unabhängigen und neutralen Journalismus und einer daraus resultierenden qualitativ anspruchsvollen Berichterstattung im Zentrum seines Schaffens. Das Buch beinhaltet Aufsätze von Weggefährten und Schülern, die ein gemeinsamer roter Faden eint: Die Überzeugung, dass Forschung nicht um ihrer selbst willen betrieben werden darf, sondern dann zu rechtfertigen ist, wenn sie sich in den Dienst eines pluralen, demokratischen Gemeinwesens stellt.
Der Inhalt
· Wolfgang Donsbach und die Entwicklung des Fachs
· Mediennutzung und Medienentwicklung
· Die Rolle des Journalismus in der Gesellschaft
· Public Opinion and Public Opinion Research
Die Zielgruppen
· Dozierende und Studierende der Sozialwissenschaften mit den Schwerpunkten Politische Kommunikation, Journalismus- und Umfrageforschung
Die HerausgeberInnen
Prof. Dr. Olaf Jandura lehrt Kommunikationswissenschaft an der Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf.
PD Dr. habil. Thomas Petersen ist Projektleiter am Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach.
Dr. Anna-Maria Schielicke ist wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin am IfK der TU Dresden.
Dr. Cornelia Mothes ist Postdoc-Stipendiatin an der School of Communication, Ohio State University.
... Neijens (1987) further proved that other elements of the ICQ procedure (e.g., a book-keeping system for respondents' evaluations of consequences) add to information integration. Also, there is evidence that ICQs result in more stable and consistent opinions than those reported in typical mass opinion surveys (e.g., De Best Waldhober et al., 2009;Neijens et al., 1992;Neijens and De Vreese, 2009;Van der Salm et al., 1997;Van Knippenberg and Daamen, 1996). On the other hand, in an ICQ there is no opportunity to ask questions for clarification and accountability effects as expected in focus group discussions are unlikely. ...
People exhibit preferences, or seek out information that is consistent with their political beliefs and opinions, when they engage in selective exposure in politics. The theory of motivated reasoning states that people's pursuit of knowledge is driven by two distinct goals: accuracy goals (which promotes drawing accurate inferences) and directed goals (which encourage the making of conclusions that people want to make, and which corresponds to their attitude). In general, people rarely have complete or adequate political knowledge, but even in these situations, they often shape their political opinions using informational shortcuts such as partisan cues. Today's political media messages are so persuasive, particularly with the growth of the Internet, that the audience is powerless to ignore them. Partisan selectivity is a concept that holds that people tend to prefer news and political content that supports their political beliefs. People may be inspired to seek out more information if they are exposed to a variety of political beliefs. On the other hand, those who tend to avoid political information that challenges their beliefs cause the community to become more politically divided. Studies have shown that social norms and community expectations affect selective exposure, which differs depending on the country's cultural environment.
Keywords: Selective exposure, Politics, Partisan selectivity, Political media messages, Cultural environment.
Introduction
The rejection of the Italian Referendum in December 2016 resulted in the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. National referendums have occurred 68 times from 1975 through 2016, with two previous constitutional referendums in 2001 and 2006 (Pasquino & Valbruzzi, 2017). On December 4, Italians were asked to vote on a series of reforms that would decrease the costs of politics and streamline decision making, centralizing executive power in parliamentary relations, transitioning towards a majoritarian democracy, and transforming the federal nature of the state in favor of the central government (Ceccarini & Bordignon, 2017). In total, a third of the articles of the constitution would have been reformed, ushering in a “Third Republic” (Draege and Dennison, 2018, p. 403). The referendum campaign was unprecedented in the amount of interest it generated, the bitterness of political conflict, and the resulting level of 65.5% turnout (Ceccarini & Bordignon, 2017). Many suggest that the level of partisan involvement meant that the outcome was determined by aspects “far beyond the substance of the proposed reforms” (Ceccarini & Bordignon, 2017, p. 281). As the reforms would weaken the role of opposition and minor parties and the governing Democratic Party, Prime Minister Renzi, and New Center Right coalition partner supported the reforms, smaller and opposition parties all rallied against it: the populist 5 Star Movement, center-right Forza Italia, nationalist Northern League and Brothers of Italy, and smaller communist and green parties.
The rejection of constitutional reform in the 4 December 2016 referendum resulted in the resignation of Matteo Renzi. Numerous potential explanations could be offered for this result, reflecting political discontent, dissatisfaction with the governing coalition or disagreement with the specific referendum proposals. An analysis of the referendum results can thus serve to identify which of these aspects led to the ultimate rejection of the proposed constitutional changes and the incumbent prime minister. Secondary analysis of Italian Election Study (Itanes) data investigates the impact that interest in the referendum had on these factors. Results indicate that assessments of incumbent performance and referendum-specific factors had a stronger effect than political dissatisfaction. The evidence also suggests that assessments of incumbent performance and referendum-specific factors had even stronger effects among those particularly interested in the referendum.
How do party cues and policy information affect citizens’ political opinions? In direct democratic settings, this question is particularly relevant. Direct democratic campaigns are information-rich events which offer citizens the opportunity to learn detailed information about a policy. At the same time parties try to influence citizens’ decision procedure by publishing their own positions on the issue. The current debate on whether “party” or “policy” has more impact on political opinions has not yet yielded conclusive results. We examine the effect of policy arguments and party cues on vote intention in two Swiss referendum votes using panel survey data. To the simple dichotomous question of “party cues or policy information” we add an additional twist in asking how party cues affect the processing of policy information through processes of motivated reasoning. We find first that both, policy arguments and party cues, have an independent effect on vote intention. However, in a second part of the analysis, we find strong evidence for partisan-biased processing of policy arguments – that is, voters tend to align their arguments with their preferred party’s position. Our conclusions with regard to the democratic quality of these vote decisions are therefore ambivalent.
This chapter extends and tests the generalizability of party labels as information shortcuts to help assess and make decisions about political candidates. We argue that the utility of party labels as information shortcuts depends upon the quality of the party label cues, as well as an individual’s level of political sophistication. Data from a national internet-based experiment in the multi-party setting of Canada allow us to test how well party cues aid with assessments of candidates’ issue stances and voting correctly in a context with less ideologically coherent parties compared to the U.S., where the majority of scholarship has focused. We find evidence that high sophisticates make better use of party labels as information shortcuts when candidates take stances consistent with the party label, and party labels from more ideologically cohesive parties are relied upon to a greater extent than cues from less cohesive parties.
The criticism that ordinary voters lack the necessary competence to make policy decisions persists despite the growth, popularity and implementation of direct democratic instruments throughout the democratic world. This article presents a novel measure of voters’ levels of justification as a possible, policy-specific, conceptualization of citizen competence in direct democracy. Using a unique dataset based on thirty-four ballot decisions in Switzerland, the study analyses the levels and correlates of citizen competence. The main findings are, first, that most voters do understand arguments about policies. Secondly, the political context
as well as
individual resources are important in determining voters’ competence. Finally, with regard to individual resources, motivation is strongly associated with justification levels, while the effect of ability is smaller than expected.
Early theorists framed public opinion as an emergent product of broad discussion – emanating ideally from a debate open to wide popular participation, free-flowing and uncensored, and well-informed (Lasswell 1941; Price 1992; Price/Neijens 1997). However, early scientific analysts (e.g. Allport 1937) found the concept of public opinion as an “emergent product” of discussion difficult to grasp empirically and problematic in a number of respects. Over time, they came to accept mass survey data as the only workable empirical expression of public opinion (Key 1961; Converse 1987). The extent to which general population surveys provide valid measures of what has traditionally been defined as public opinion – grounded in public discussion and well-informed by debate – has been questioned by scholars of many stripes (Price & Neijens 1998; Crespi 1989; Saris/Sniderman 2004). Empirical evidence suggests that opinions given to pollsters and survey researchers are often unorganized, disconnected, individual responses that have not been influenced by public debate (Bishop/Oldendick/Tuchfarber/Bennet 1980).
There is an ongoing debate on whether processes of direct democracy, such as the popular initiative, plebiscite and referendum are helpful in the political decision making process. On the one hand, there are authors arguing that these institutions slow the political game down, turn it more expensive, confusing and illegitimate; others defend the contrary position, arguing these mechanisms are fundamental to the citizen and the quality of democracy. The present study examines the following seven issues of this matter, based on theoretical consideration and empirical research: 1. Democratic minimalism and maximalism; 2. Competition between majority and minority; 3. Competition between representative institutions and processes of direct democracy. 4. Competence of citizens; 5. Side effects of processes of direct democracy; 6. Size of electorate; 7. Costs of processes of direct democracy. The analysis is based on a review of national and international literature. The study shows that processes of direct democracy can be complementary to institutions of representative democracy. The well functioning of popular initiatives, plebiscites and referendums does not only depend on their regulation, but also on the performance of the other political institutions as well as the socio-economical situation of a country. The study allows to deepen the debate on processes of direct democracy in Brazil.
In three experiments, participants completed an Information-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ) in which the aggregation level of information
about the consequences of two policy options was manipulated. The results indicate that evaluations of consequences are more
extreme when consequences are split into separately to be evaluated components rather than presented as one whole. The aggregation
level further affects overall evaluations of options and choices between options. Aggregation level effects are observed for
both conventional rating scales (Experiment 1) and magnitude estimation scales (Experiment 2). The effects are strongest when
consequences are lengthy and multifaceted, but also occur for short and simple consequences (Experiment 3). We conclude that
it is important to consider the level of information aggregation when applying ICQ methodology.
Die Einstellung gegenüber staatlich finanzierten Informationsmaterialien – Eine empirische Untersuchung am Beispiel der Volksabstimmung über Stuttgart 21 Bürgerbeteiligung; Öffentliche Ausgaben; Einstellung gegenüber politischen Informationen; Strukturgleichungsmodell; Wählerverhalten Die Diskussionen um Bürgerbeteiligungen, wie beispielsweise Volksabstimmungen, gewinnen bei politischen Entscheidungen und in Bezug auf den öffentlichen Sektor immer mehr an Relevanz. In diesem Kontext stellt sich die Frage nach der Bedeutung des Informationsstands und dessen Auswirkungen auf eine Entscheidung der Bürger. Um diese ausgewogen und transparent zu in-formieren, stellt die öffentliche Hand Informationen, beispielsweise in Form von Informations-broschüren, zur Verfügung. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht mittels eines Kausalmodells die Einstellung der Bürger gegenüber staatlich bereitgestellten Informationsmaterialien und deren Auswirkungen auf den Wissensstand sowie auf die Intention, an einer Volksabstimmung teilzu-nehmen. Das Modell wird am Beispiel der Volksabstimmung zum Kündigungsgesetz von Stutt-gart 21 in Baden-Württemberg empirisch überprüft. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Informati-onsmaterialien positiv den wahrgenommenen Wissenstand der Bürger beeinflussen. Dieser senkt wiederum die Informationskosten, erhöht das Involvement für das politische Thema und somit auch die Teilnahmebereitschaft. Auf Basis der Ergebnisse dieser Studie kann die Empfehlung gegeben werden, dass den Bürgern Informationsmaterialien bereitgestellt werden sollten, um das Interesse an einem politischen Thema im Allgemeinen und die Wahlbeteiligung an Volksabstim-mungen zu erhöhen.
New research techniques have recently been developed to gather measures of public opinion that is better informed or more
deliberative than that recorded in typical mass opinion surveys. These techniques include deliberative polls, educational
surveys, and citizen planning cells. In view of what they set out to accomplish, what can we say from a scientific perspective
about the utility of these methods? How are we to best interpret the data they produce? To address these questions, this paper
reviews several of the most prominent and well-developed examples of deliberative or educational polling. We argue two main
points. First, these new methods of assessing public opinion must be evaluated in terms of specific quality criteria that apply to different phases and/or participants in the democratic decision making process. Some techniques
attempt to maximize several distinct qualities at once, making it difficult to identify specific objectives for evaluating
success. Second, at least five important core methodological elements of educational or deliberative polls can be identified,
each of which can theoretically alter results. To date, however, data bearing upon the effects of these methodological elements
are in limited supply. Lack of knowledge about how method influences individual and collective opinion outcomes thus renders
several of these techniques problematic.
This cross-national study investigates the relationship between media and political knowledge and participation. Drawing on panel surveys and news media content analyses the study links exposure and attention to specific media contents to changes in political knowledge and participation. While the literature on this issue is divided, this study shows that the positive effects of news media exposure outweigh the negative effects and that the effects are conditional upon actual content. Exposure to news outlets with high levels of political content (such as public television news and broadsheet newspapers) contributes the most to knowledge gains and increases the propensity to turn out to vote. Exposure to news outlets with less political content has either no effects or slightly positive effects, depending on the type of content. In other words, the effects of news media use on knowledge and participation are rather `virtuous' than `vicious'. The results are discussed in the light of research on media effects and political participation.Acta Politica (2006) 41, 317-341. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ap.5500164
This research examines the interactive effects of status and perceived time delay on acceptance of partner knowledge contributions within a distributive collaboration work environment. Results across 2 studies suggest that within distributed collaboration, time delays attributed to low-status partners had a significantly more harmful effect on influence acceptance than time delay attributed to high-status partners. This was so, despite the fact that partners' actual behavior was held constant across experimental conditions. In addition, results indicate that judgments of partner competence significantly mediated the interactive effects of perceived time delay and partner status on acceptance of partner influence.
This paper discusses the role of argument-based, systematic voting in direct-democratic Swiss votes. It presents evidence that Swiss voters are less minimalist than generally expected. In addition, the results of the analysis show that argument-based voting is above all reinforced by two key context characteristics intense campaigns preceding the vote and familiar projects. Intense campaigns increase argument-based voting above all on the side of the government's opponents and familiar projects tend to do so on both sides. The strong effects of these context characteristics on argument-based voting suggest that the quality of the deliberation of individual voters crucially depends on the quality of the arguments exchanged among the members of the political elites in the course of the debate preceding the vote.Acta Politica (2005) 40, 299316. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ap.5500114
In the Choice Questionnaire (Neijens et al. 1992) respondents have to choose between several policy options. Within this questionnaire they are provided with information about the consequences of each option. Until now, only indirect evidence as to whether or not respondents base their preferences on the information provided was available and plausible alternative explanations for the Choice Questionnaire's effect could not be ruled out. In the present study, we demonstrate that Choice Questionnaire respondents do base their preferences on the information provided: different information resulted in significantly different choices.
For collecting informed public opinions a special kind of questionnaire has been developed: the Choice Questionnaire. With this questionnaire, information relating to a decision problem is made available to respondents. This information includes the various options from which a choice has to be made, and the consequences of these options. The Choice Questionnaire also contains a procedure that is designed to assist participants in processing this information and in making a choice based on it.
This paper studies the extent to which the Choice Questionnaire is a useful instrument for collecting informed opinions and the effects the instrument has on the decision-making process of the participants. The factors influencing its performance are also considered. This evaluation study has been carried out in a real life context: the choice made by the Dutch population concerning the further application of nuclear power.
The Information-and-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ) is an instrument for public opinion survey in which respondents are presented with a policy-relevant decision problem and provided with information relevant to the problem (e.g. information about the consequences of the policy options). In the present paper we study the effects of respondents' motivation (operationalized as involvement in the issue) and ability (operationalized as respondent's level of education) on the formation and stability of preferences in the ICQ. Data were gathered in a nation-wide (N=991) survey on preferences for different ways of generating electricity in the Netherlands. As predicted, more motivated and more able respondents appeared to engage in more elaborate information processing.
This review is about decision technology-the rules and tools that help us make wiser decisions. First, we review the three rules that are at the heart of most traditional decision technology-multi-attribute utility, Bayes' theorem, and subjective expected utility maximization. Since the inception of decision research, these rules have prescribed how we should infer values and probabilities and how we should combine them to make better decisions. We suggest how to make best use of all three rules in a comprehensive 19-step model. The remainder of the review explores recently developed tools of decision technology. It examines the characteristics and problems of decision-facilitating sites on the World Wide Web. Such sites now provide anyone who can use a personal computer with access to very sophisticated decision-aiding tools structured mainly to facilitate consumer decision making. It seems likely that the Web will be the mode by means of which decision tools will be distributed to lay users. But methods for doing such apparently simple things as winnowing 3000 options down to a more reasonable number, like 10, contain traps for unwary decision technologists. The review briefly examines Bayes nets and influence diagrams-judgment and decision-making tools that are available as computer programs. It very briefly summarizes the state of the art of eliciting probabilities from experts. It concludes that decision tools will be as important in the 21st century as spreadsheets were in the 20th.