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The Non-knowledge Map for Decisions
A Heuristic for the Exploration and Creation of Non-knowledge Literacy
Current Research
Share your Non-knowledge
Lara Mia Herrmann*, Peter R. Hobson**, Pierre L. Ibisch*
What non-knowledge bothers you at work? How do you deal with it? Do you
behave non-knowledge literate? What is the nature of the non-knowledge? Is
it an unknown you can clearly define or is it hard to grasp?
Would you classify it as a knowledge gap, a blindspot, something uncertain or
ambiguous? Can time overcome your non-knowledge soon enough?
You are also invited to code your unknowns – see (4) above!
The non-knowledge map for sustainability
Ibisch and Hobson, 2012
Introduction and Context
This research is based on the understanding that handling non-
knowledge is an inherent capacity of humans and that it´s
occurrence should be made explicit. It assumes that pattern
reading in the unknown is feasible by recognizing the importance
of the unknown, evaluating its multidimensionality, attributes,
functionality and potential impact.
3
(2)
Panarchy adapted from Gunderson and Holling, 2002
A transdisciplinary research
project on non-knowledge in and
non-knowledge literacy for global
change related decision making is
planned. This project should
involve decision makers and their
relevant unknowns. It would
possibly take an econical (Hobson
and Ibisch, 2012), non-knowledge
based and humble approach -
allowing explicit ignorance and
common sense. The code
presented in (4) might be a starting
point.
A vision would be to capacitate
non-knowledge literate
professionals so they are able to
understand, explain and
strategically handle their
unknowns.
Decisions are understood as concrete moments for
the recognition of unknowns. 20 interviews were
carried out on two global change related decisions
taken at work by each interviewee. It was asked and
analysed with the map what the interviewee did not
know in the decision situation.
The code was developed from the understanding
released in the discussion and allows to code
specific unknowns; it is a first attempt to visualize
structures and patterns observed in unknowns.
The non-knowledge map for sustainability (below,
“compass“) was adapted for non-knowledge
related to individual decisions and then forwarded
to step 2, the empirical part.
An econical (Hobson and Ibisch,
2012), non-knowledge based
(Ibisch, Vega and Herrmann, 2010),
post-normal science (Funtowicz
and Ravetz, 2003) and
transdisciplinary approach was
taken. Principal literature included
Gigerenzer (2007) and Kahneman
(2011) on heuristics and thinking,
Taleb (2008 & 2012) and Ibisch,
Geiger and Cybulla (2012) as
starting points for non-knowledge.
I do not know
How my boss will
react*How to do it*If
this is better*What is
the best*How this will
develop*What will
change*...
I don´t know
what else to put
on the poster
Wenn ich nicht mehr weiter weiß
gründ ich einen Arbeitskreis
Causes of uncertainty include insufficient or contradictory evidence as well as human behaviour.
The human dimensions of uncertainty, especially coordination and strategic behaviour issues,
constitute a major part of the uncertainties related to climate change mitigation (high agreement,
much evidence)“
(IPCC WGIII, 2007)
•What is the role of non-knowledge in the scientific process and in IPCC decisions?
•What are explicit and what implicit unknowns in the IPCC?
•Where does the IPCC work with black boxes of imperfect and incomplete knowledge?
•IPCC is at the science-policy interface – what is the relation between non-knowledge and
handling non-knowledge?
•Are scientific methods, e.g. models and scenarios, ways to handle non-knowledge?
•(How) does the IPCC define non-knowledge and its derivatives? Does the IPCC work with
more than uncertainties?
•Where might IPCC blindspots lie?
•Would a new epistemological culture of non-knowledge literacy work for the IPCC?
•How does the IPCC deal with the knowledge explosion? What is the role of knowledge
overload and of static knowledge?
Potential Application
to the IPCC
Future Research
This is a request for conceptual (non-)knowledge of higher order.
The underlying postulate is that non-knowledge literate individuals are happier and take better decisions, leading to more effective implementation on up-scaled level.
Summary of methods, results, discussion and post-analysis review (1) – (4)
The research was structured along the four phases of the Panarchy “lazy eight” (see below).
A theoretical part (1) included literature research and adapting of the non-knowledge map for
sustainability to decisions. This map was tested in the empirical part (2) and subsequently
discussed (3). A post-analysis review (4) conceptualizes the map into a heuristic code.
The developed code can be applied using the
following rules; an example is given on the left.
1 Define concrete decision point and unknown
2 Order these points in time
•the day of the mapping - today (T),
•the decision (X),
•the reference point of the decision (P)
•the recognition of the unknown (R),
•the manifestation of the according known
(M) – compare (3) “release” below right
3 Assign a (non-)knowledge quality indicator to
each point in time
4 Code and describe your handling and
evaluation at each point in time
Objective
It is the objective of this
research to explore non-
knowledge to gain a better
understanding of the term non-
knowledge literacy in global
change related decision making.
1
2,3,4
4
2 2 3
(3)
A blindspot is a
meta-unknown.
An unknown is an
unknown meta-
known.
A known is a
known meta-
known.
Recognition is the
(imaginary) point in
time when a
blindspot
materialises into an
unknown.
Manifestation is the
(imaginary) point in
time when an
unknown or a
blindspot
materialises into a
known.
Abstract
Decision making under uncertainty is frequently discussed in literature, but
rarely considers other forms of non-knowledge. Literature on non-knowledge
does not provide practical classifications for decision unknowns. This
research seeks to find patterns in decision related unknowns. These patterns
shall serve to derive elements and principles of a competent handling of non-
knowledge; this would allow teaching non-knowledge literacy. Handling non-
knowledge at work often remains implicit. As a cultural effort, non-knowledge
literacy would be a competence that invites changes in mind-set, behaviour
and institutional structures. Non-knowledge literate professionals would be
able to understand, explain and strategically handle their unknowns.
(4)
(1)
* Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development, Germany;
** Writtle College, UK
Please contact laraherrmann@web.de
February 2016