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Third National Communication of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Submitted to UNFCCC)
Abstract and Figures
The Third National Communication (TNC) has been prepared by the Designated National
Authority (DNA) in partnership with the General Authority of Meteorology and Environmental
Protection (GAMEP), the environmental agency of the Kingdom, Ministry of Energy, Industry
and Mineral Resources (MEIMR) and in cooperation and coordination with the relevant
ministries, organizations and academic and research institutions. The report is comprised of ten
chapters namely National Circumstances; GHG Inventory; Steps to Mitigation and renewable
energy; Economic Diversification, Development and Transfer of Technology; Analysis of
Socioeconomic Impacts of Annex 1 Response Measures; Climate Change Scenarios;
Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures covering Water Resources;
Desertification; Health; Agriculture and Food Security. Renewable energy, technology
transfer, health, agriculture and food security issues have been included in this report for the
first time.
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... The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is among the nations that signed and ratified the Paris agreement in 2015 [70]. As a member of the UNFCCC, KSA submitted its fourth national communication in 2022, prepared by the Saudi Designated National Authority (DNA) in coordination with the relevant ministries and organizations [3]. This official document provides a comprehensive overview of national economic and environmental aspects and estimates for GHG emissions from the public and private sectors. ...
... In Fig. 1, we show CO 2 emission estimates for KSA by four international agencies, including EIA [21], EDGAR [48], CDIAC [13], BP [16], and the Saudi DNA [3]. Note that there is some variability in the estimates corresponding to an average standard deviation of around 12 MtCO 2 per year. ...
... Thus, emissions are calculated from the production rates and their corresponding emission factors; the latter is based on the industry type, fuel type, and combustion technology. The last publicly reported total emissions for KSA per sector as per DNA Document [3] covers 2016 emissions. In this work, Total CO 2 Emissions for the Kingdom were estimated, covering emissions as of the year 2020, based on various public data (details about data sources will be given in later sections). ...
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is among the countries that committed to taking measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. KSA has rolled out the 2030 Vision aiming at creating a more diverse and sustainable economy that cascaded into a series of initiatives, including the circular carbon economy, Saudi green initiative, and the national renewable energy program. Furthermore, KSA has recently announced an ambitious goal to reach net-zero goal by 2060. In its updated nationally determined contribution (NDC), the Kingdom committed to reducing its carbon emissions by 278 million tons of CO2eq (equivalent) annually by 2030. This ambition is more than a two-fold increase versus the previously announced target (130 million tons of CO2eq). With no current plans to change its hydrocarbon production rates, this reduction in emissions would be achieved mainly through diversifying its energy mix, increasing the efficiency of industrial processes, and deploying carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS). To achieve this goal, it is vital to establish a detailed register for CO2 emissions from stationary industrial sources to design optimum and effective CCUS applications. This register includes details about the emission source locations, rates, and characteristics. For the first time, this paper provides a country-wide extensive study that maps out CO2 emissions from stationary industrial emitters associated with the leading six industries in the country, which are electricity generation, desalination, oil refining, cement, petrochemicals, and iron & steel. Moreover, CO2 concentrations within the emitted flue gas from these resources are estimated, which is crucial to determine the capture cost. This study aims to provide a vital resource for researchers and policymakers who seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by promoting renewable energy, improving the efficiency of existing fossil-fuel-based industries, and evaluating the potential of CCUS in KSA.
... Such an increase in temperature would challenge both the suitability and sustainability of agriculture in the Kingdom [42,51]. It will considerably increase irrigation water requirements, and around a 5-25% decrease in yields of various crops will be observed with just 1 • C increase in temperature [47,50,52]. In terms of precipitation, significant changes were not observed during the last 50 years [47]. ...
... There will also be a decline in rainfall across many parts of Saudi Arabia (Gosling [40,53]). An increase in temperature will significantly affect agricultural production by increasing irrigation water requirements for different crops grown in the Kingdom [52], and the problem would be further exacerbated amid water scarcity [46]. The other consequences of climate change, as perceived by the respondents, do have their intensity, but they are regarded to be less severe in comparison with the first four ranked consequences. ...
Concerns over the potential harmful impacts of changing climate are strongly echoing around the globe. With its wide range of hazards to human societies, climate change is posing serious threats to human survival and impacting every aspect of human life, including food production systems. It is, therefore, imperative to gauge the local knowledge, perceptions, and adaptation capacity for the effective mitigation of the ill impacts of climate change. In this backdrop, the present study has been designed to investigate the perceptions of farmers regarding causes and impacts of climate change on agriculture. Required data were collected from the Madinah region in Saudi Arabia and analyzed to answer the following study questions: How do farmers perceive impacts of climate change? What factors affect their perceived impacts of climate change? Additionally, what factors affect their perception about the causes of climate change? Individual logit models were used to assess the impacts of various factors on perceived causes and perceived impacts of climate change on agriculture. A multinomial logit model was also employed to figure out significant determinants of perceived causes of climate change on agriculture. Results indicated that the most dominant perceived impacts of climate change are its effects on crop production, followed by drying water sources. The results also revealed that the age of the farmers had a positive effect on their perception of natural processes being the cause of climate change. Similarly, farming experience had an inverse effect on their perceptions regarding causes of climate change. The majority of the farmers seemed clear about the possible drivers of climate change in the country. In particular, about 79 percent of the farmers believed that GHGs and pollution are causing climate change in the country. The findings provide useful insights into farmers’ perceptions about causes and impacts of climate change and may be used by policymakers to strategically design extension and agricultural development initiatives for helping the farmers to implement sustainable agricultural practices to adapt to and lower the adverse impacts of climate change in the Kingdom.
... Breeding programs within Kuwait are key to having offspring with higher resilience to arid conditions (Razzaque et al., 2009). Countries like Saudi Arabia also see breeding programs using indigenous livestock as one of their climate change adaptation programs (Alsarhan & Zatari, 2022). ...
... Given its high dependence on fossil fuels, Saudi Arabia is within the top ten emitting countries of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the world. According to the 4th communication of the Saudi Designated National Authorities (DNA) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in March 2022, the country emitted 602 million metric tons of CO 2 -equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2016 (Alsarhan and Zatari, 2022). Saudi Arabia' GHG emissions per capita were ~ 19.3 tCO2e in 2018, which is about two folds the G20 average (Climate Transparency, 2021). ...
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are needed as a crucial technology for Saudi Arabia to reach its net-zero goal by 2060. This study represents the first comprehensive evaluation of geological CO2 storage capacities in the sedimentary basins of Saudi Arabia. Our study relied on collecting and analyzing hundreds of data sets from public domains, which were carefully selected based on their quality and relevance to ensure reliability.
We evaluated the suitability and storage capacity of 17 basins and sub-basins throughout the country for CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers as well as future depleted oil and gas reservoirs using the CO2-SCREEN tool. Our evaluation shows that the most suitable basins are located in the eastern part of the country, including the
Eastern Arabian Basin and the Interior Homocline-Central Arch. On the other hand, Western Saudi Arabia is characterized by less favorable basins, except for the three moderately suitable onshore basins, namely the Umm Luj, Yanbu, and Jeddah basins. Uncertainties were considered by performing Monte Carlo simulations. At the 50th percentile uncertainty, the estimated total effective storage capacities in deep saline aquifers, future
depleted oil reservoirs, and non-associated gas reservoirs are ~432, ~5, and ~ 9 gigatons (Gt), respectively.
Most of the country’s storage capacity is located in the eastern region, displaying an uneven distribution of storage resources nationally. For full transparency, we share all the calculation sheets utilized. The methodology adopted for estimating the potential capacity aligns with the effective storage capacities defined by the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF). The capacity estimates account for technical, geological, and engineering constraints. Nevertheless, it is crucial to note that the practical storage capacity estimate requires the incorporation of additional societal, economic, and regulatory factors, which were not taken into consideration in this study. Consequently, there is a pressing need for additional research, particularly prospect-level evaluations entailing drilling, testing evaluation, and monitoring wells. These comprehensive investigations will significantly contribute to our comprehension of reservoir and seal characteristics, assess injectivity performance, and provide profound insights into CO2 behavior, effectively mitigating uncertainties. The storage capacity estimates presented in this study furnish crucial information for policymakers and industry leaders engaged in addressing carbon emissions in Saudi Arabia.
... The end of century changes is in the range 4-4.5 °C under . This is in agreement with the findings of Alsarhan et al. (2016). Figure 7 shows the spatial distribution of changes in precipitation under the RCP4.5 scenario, for mid-century and end of the century (2071-2100). ...
Climate change is one of the most important challenges for humanity at present, and its impacts are especially profound in semi-arid regions such as the Arabian Peninsula and Saudi Arabia in particular, as it directly impacts the fragile ecosystem of the region. The present study explores the changes in future temperature and precipitation patterns over the Arabian Peninsula for the two future time slices 2036–2065 and 2071–2100 with respect to the reference period (1976–2005), using state-of-the-art regional climate model simulations. Three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are downscaled with the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) over the Arabian Peninsula. Results indicate that the central parts of the Arabian Peninsula should get hotter in future compared to other parts of the Peninsula. This projected increase in temperature seems to happen mainly at the end of the twenty-first century. The projected temperature changes during mid-century fall in the range 1.0–1.5 °C under the RCP4.5 scenario and 2.0–2.5 °C under RCP8.5. Temperature changes by the end of the century are in the range 4–4.5 °C under RCP4.5 and 4.5–5.5 °C under RCP8.5. At the same time, this increase in temperature will affect the annual precipitation cycle as the precipitation during the dry season is expected to increase while the precipitation during the wet season is expected to decrease. RegCM simulations driven with boundary conditions from three GCMs are not consistent in producing future changes in precipitation over Saudi Arabia, which indicates that a careful interpretation of projected precipitation is required for its further use in impact and adaptation studies related to climate change.
Hydrogen (H2) is anticipated to play a crucial role in Saudi Arabia's transition to a low-carbon economy as an alternative clean fuel. The conversion of fossil fuels through steam methane reformation produces blue H2, with captured carbon dioxide (CO2) being stored in geological formations. Saudi Arabia's strategic location and recent policies promote renewable energy and green H2. However, establishing an industrial-scale H2-based economy necessitates a suitable large-scale storage solution. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) emerges as a prominent option, offering significant storage capacities in the Giga- and Terra-Watt-hour range, effectively addressing seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand from renewables.
Therefore, the present work aims to evaluate the opportunity of UHS in Saudi Arabia and assess potential geological formations (salt caverns, deep saline aquifers, and hydrocarbon reservoirs) and key technical challenges to be addressed for UHS integration in the energy grid. This includes criteria for site selection, storage capacity calculations, and other critical scientific research areas to be studied. The paper reviews the geological settings in Saudi Arabia that are potentially suitable for UHS, Red Sea basins, and sedimentary formations in the eastern basins at the Arabian plate.
The results highlight the requisite fundamental experimental and numerical studies for a complete understanding of H2/brine behavior within formation rocks, including geo-bio-chemical reactions prone to occur during the UHS process. The analysis of H2 thermo-physical suggests a more operational challenge than storing CO2 or natural gas. Commercial demonstration of UHS is crucial, while all the ongoing field tests of UHS (pure H2) worldwide are still in their early stages. Regionally, deep salt caverns and saline aquifers with closed structures or regional seals provide the best structural traps for UHS due to their tight and secure seal system. Down-dip aquifers and sedimentary packages in the eastern basins at the Arabian platform are more attractive and safer options. The discussed analysis of UHS potential in Saudi Arabia sheds light on its integration possibility into the circular carbon economy (CCE) framework to achieve a net-zero emission by 2060.
Climate change threatens the existence of humankind on the planet Earth. Owing to its arid climate and poor natural resources base, Saudi Arabia is particularly susceptible to the negative impact of ongoing climate change. Farmers’ understanding of this global phenomenon is extremely important as it may help determine their adaptation behavior. This study was designed to analyze farmers’ beliefs and concerns about climate change as well as their views about adaptation different obstacles. Data were collected from 80 randomly farmers of the Al-Ahsa region in Eastern Province using structured interviews. The findings revealed that farmers believed that climate change is mainly occurring due to anthropogenic activities. Drought, insects, crop diseases, and heat stress were their main concerns regarding adverse impacts of climate change. Lack of knowledge about adaptation practices, and poor government and financial support are perceived as the major obstacles to adaptation. The results of non-parametric analysis identified no significant differences in farmers’ climate change beliefs and concerns, and their views about obstacles to adaptation in relation to their demographic characteristics. Based on the findings, we suggest that capacity building programs should be undertaken by the government for enhancing the adaptive capacity of the farmers as well the provision of financial incentives wherever deemed necessary for promoting the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices and building a resilient national food system.
Recent and future changes in temperature and precipitation climate extremes
are estimated using the Hadley Centre PRECIS ("Providing REgional Climates
for Impacts Studies") climate model for the eastern Mediterranean and Middle
East region. The area of interest is considered vulnerable to extreme
climate events as there is evidence for a temperature rise while
precipitation tends to decline, suggesting likely effects on vital
socioeconomic sectors in the region. Observations have been obtained for the
recent period (1961–1990) and used to evaluate the model output. The spatial
distribution of recent temporal trends in temperature indicates strong
increasing in minimum temperature over the eastern Balkan Peninsula, Turkey
and the Arabian Peninsula. The rate of warming reaches
0.4–0.5 °C decade−1 in a large part of the domain, while
warming is expected to be strongest in
summer (0.6–0.7 °C decade−1) in the eastern Balkans and western Turkey. The trends in
annual and summer maximum temperature are estimated at approximately 0.5 and
0.6 °C decade−1 respectively. Recent estimates do not indicate
statistically significant trends in precipitation except for individual
sub-regions. Results indicate a future warming trend for the study area over
the last 30 years of the 21st century. Trends are estimated to be positive
and statistically significant in nearly the entire region. The annual trend
patterns for both minimum and maximum temperature show warming rates of
approximately 0.4–0.6 °C decade−1, with pronounced warming over the Middle
Eastern countries. Summer temperatures reveal a gradual warming
(0.5–0.9 °C decade−1) over much of the region. The model projects drying
trends by 5–30% in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21st
century, with the number of wet days decreasing at the rate of 10–30 days year−1,
while heavy precipitation is likely to decrease in the
high-elevation areas by 15 days year−1.
Air quality deterioration in urban areas; high energy demand and consumption due to regional population growth and economic development; concerns about safe drinking water supplies due to a scarcity of fresh water; air quality deterioration, industrial pollution, waste management, and pollution in coastal areas; and subsequent stress on marine ecosystems are all major environmental challenges being faced by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. For effective protection of the environment, an interdisciplinary approach within a sustainable framework, which integrates human needs with economic development and environmental protection, is required. This paper presents an overview of Saudi Arabia’s major environmental problems and challenges and offers opportunities to use economic growth, social equity, and protection of the environment as interrelated components. The role of active participation by governments, stakeholders, businesses, academic institutions, and individuals in the decision-making process and an inter-disciplinary research approach will be identified for each major environmental issue.
Introduction This chapter examines what is known about the effects of climate change on human health and, briefly, the more direct impacts of climate-altering pollutants (CAPs; see Glossary) on health. We review diseases and other aspects of poor health that are sensitive to weather and climate. We examine the factors that influence the susceptibility of populations and individuals to ill health due to variations in weather and climate, and describe steps that may be taken to reduce the impacts of climate change on human health. The chapter also includes a section on health "co-benefits." Co-benefits are positive effects on human health that arise from interventions to reduce emissions of those CAPs that warm the planet or vice versa. This is a scientific assessment based on best available evidence according to the judgment of the authors. We searched the English-language literature up to August 2013, focusing primarily on publications since 2007. We drew primarily (but not exclusively) on peer-reviewed journals. Literature was identified using a published protocol (Hosking and Campbell-Lendrum, 2012) and other approaches, including extensive consultation with technical experts in the field. We examined recent substantial reviews (e.g., Gosling et al., 2009; Bassil and Cole, 2010; Hajat et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2011; McMichael, 2013b; Stanke et al., 2013) to check for any omissions of important work. In selecting citations for the chapter, we gave priority to publications that were recent (since AR4), comprehensive, added significant new findings to the literature, and included areas or population groups that have not previously been well described or were judged to be particularly policy relevant in other respects. We begin with an outline of measures of human health, the major driving forces that act on health worldwide, recent trends in health status, and health projections for the remainder of the 21st century. 11.1.1. Present State of Global Health The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) pointed to dramatic improvement in life expectancy in most parts of the world in the 20th century, and this trend has continued through the first decade of the 21st century (Wang et al., 2012).
Environmental concerns have recently taken centre stage in policy discussions around the globe due to the frequently observed impact of environmental degradation on socio-economic phenomena. Moreover, and to a large extent, many developed economies have managed to turn environmental challenges into profitable businesses rather than fee-based generation problems that constitute a burden and high cost for the economy. Through collaborations between public and private sectors, companies in those economies have been able to make environmental issues a core part of their business strategy.
The rapid growth of the population, insufficient recharges of fresh water to underground aquifers and increased agricultural and landscaping activities in Middle Eastern countries have increased pressure on natural water systems including non-renewable water sources. Approximately, 22,480 million cubic meters (MCM) of water was required in Saudi Arabia in 2005, for which non-renewable groundwater was a major supply source satisfying 57% of the demand, while surface and renewable groundwater shared 38% of the demand, desalination water 4% and treated reclaimed wastewater 1%. A large portion of domestic wastewater, which is approximately 45% of the total demand, is currently discharged into the natural water bodies with minimal to no primary treatment. The discharge of this largely untreated domestic wastewater may cause serious environmental effects to aquatic habitats. Reuse of this water would present dual benefits: the reduction of fresh water extraction from overstressed non-renewable resources and the minimization of environmental impacts. This study introduces a fuzzy evaluation technique of treated wastewater reuse for agricultural and landscaping purposes. A fuzzy hierarchy structure has been developed to conduct this study, where fuzzy triangular membership functions are employed to capture relevant uncertainties. The analytical hierarchy process has been incorporated to develop priority matrices for different hierarchy level attributes. The uncertainty in developing priority matrices was minimized by incorporating experts' judgments from relevant fields. Finally, a hypothetical case study was performed and future research directions outlined. KEY WORDS Wastewater reuse, uncertainty, priority matrix and analytic hierarchy process