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Poleka Kasue Mountain Observatory, Los Nevados Natural Park, Colombia

Authors:
Mountain Views/
Mountain Meridian
Volume 10, Number 2 • December 2016
ConsorƟ um for Integrated
Climate Research in Western Mountains
CIRMOUNT
Joint Issue
Mountain Research IniƟ aƟ ve
MRI
Front Cover: Les trois dent de la Chourique, west of the Pyrenees and a study area of the P3 project (page 13). The picture was
taken enroute from Lake Ansabere to Lake Acherito, both of which have been infected by Bd since 2003, although they still have
amphibians. Photo: Dirk Schmeller, Helmholtz-Center for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany.
Editors: Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service, Paci c Southwest Research Station, Albany, California. and
Erin Gleeson, Mountain Research Initiative, Institute of Geography, University of Bern , Bern, Switzerland.
Layout and Graphic Design: Diane Delany, USDA Forest Service, Paci c Southwest Research Station, Albany, California.
Back Cover: Harvest Moon + 1 Day, 2016, Krenka Creek and the North Ruby Mountains, NV. Photo: Connie Millar, USDA Forest
Service.
Read about the contributing artists on page 86.
Kelly Redmond (1952-2016) by Lake Tahoe attending a workshop on “Water in the West”
in late August of 2016. Photo: Imtiaz Rangwala, NOAA
Table of Contents
Editors' Welcome
Mountain Research Initiative Mountain Observatories
Projects
Belmont Projects: Creating ClimateWIse
Belmont Projects: CLIMTREE: Ecological and
Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate-Induced Tree Diebacks
in Highland Forests
Belmont Projects: Ecological Calendars and Climate
Adaptation in the Pamirs, Central Asia
Belmont Projects: NILE-NEXUS: Opportunities for a
Sustainable Food-Energy-Water Future in the Blue Nile
Mountains of Ethiopia
Belmont Projects: P3: People, Pollution, and Pathogens,
Mountain Ecosystems in a Human-Altered World
Belmont Projects: VULPES: VULnerability of Populations
Under Extreme Scenarios
GNOMO Sites: Poleka Kasue Mountain Observatory, Los
Nevados Natural Park, Colombia
GNOMO Sites: Gongga Alpine Ecosystem Observation and
Research Station (GAEORS), Chinese Ecological Research
Network (CERN)
GNOMO Sites: Mountain Elgon Forestry Resources and
Institutions Monitoring Program, Uganda
INARCH Sites: The Canadian Rockies Hydrological
Observatory (CRHO)
INARCH Sites: Wolf Creek Research Basin
GNOMO Working Groups: GNOMO Looks toward
the Future of Mountain Social Ecological Systems (SES)
Research
GNOMO Working Groups: Working towards a
Global Network with Universal Data Access: A Data
Publication Project with the Global Network of Mountain
Observatories
Connie Millar and Erin Gleeson
Kate Brauman and Leah Bremer
Carlos Lopez Vaamonde
Kassam Research Group
Ben Zaitchik
Dirk Schmeller
Rachid Cheddadi
Daniel Ruiz-Carrascal
Wang Genxu, Liu Qiao, and Yang Yan
Daniel Waiswa
John Pomeroy, Cherie Westbrook, and Warren
Helgason
John Pomeroy
Derek Kauneckis
Jon Pollak and Liza Brazil
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Joint Issue
Mountain Views/Mountain Meridian
Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT)
and Mountain Research Initiative (MRI)
Volume 10, No. 2, December 2016
www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/
h p://mri.scnatweb.ch/en/
GNOMO Working Groups: Globally Assessing the Impacts of
Disturbances on Montane Soil Diversity and Function
GNOMO Working Groups: From Email Silence to Starting Line:
Progress in GEO-GNOME
GNOMO Working Groups: Station Siting and Data Standards
CIRMOUNT Updates
Adapting to Climate Change in Western National Forests:
A Decade of Progress
Celebrating Kelly Redmond (1952-2016)
Kelly Redmond
Stories and Recollections from Colleagues
Interview of Kelly, reprinted from Mountain Views, Nov 2014
Interview
Dave Clow, U.S. Geological Survey
News and Events
MtnClim 2016
Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop 2016
PACLIM 2017: March 5-8, 2017
Voices in the Wind
Given the trend toward less snow, melting glaciers, and relatively
more rain than snow in mountains (and associated e ects) how does
(or doesn’t) this a ect your research directions for the coming 5 years
or so, and what new questions might you ask? Will this trend change
the kinds of research technology you employ; if so, how?
Responses from Polly Buo e, Don Falk, Lori Flint, Je Hicke,
Jessica Lundquist, Bruce McGurk, Meagan Oldfather, and
Jim Roche
Field Notes: Mountains Where We Work
Llamas and Lytles: Unexpected Mountain Meetings
Did You See It?
Sun Cups: The Beauty of Mathematics Illuminates the Beauty
of the Pa erns of Nature
Contributing Artists
Mountain Visions
Climate Dance
Sudies in Granite (4 drawings/photos)
Thomas Spiegelberger, Aimee T. Classen and
Zachary T. Aanderud
Greg Greenwood
Eric Kelsey
Jessica Halofsky and Dave Peterson
Connie Millar
Bruce McGurk
Sco y Strachan
Wally Woolfenden
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Mountain Views • December 2016
TABLE OF CONTENTS ii
Welcome to this joint issue of the Mountain Research Initiative’s
(MRI) Mountain Meridian and the Consortium for Integrated
Climate Research in Western Mountains’ (CIRMOUNT)
Mountain Views Chronicle. This year, as with the Autumn 2015
issue, CIRMOUNT has joined forces with MRI to highlight a
range of mountain-science projects at the international scale,
as well as to include articles and updates from western North
America.
In this issue, MRI brings a roundup of articles about one of the
community’s central efforts, the Global Network of Mountain
Observatories (http://gnomo.ucnrs.org/). GNOMO grew
out of the 2014 “Global Fair and Workshop on Long-Term
Observatories of Mountain Social-Ecological Systems” held in
Reno, Nevada. Now led by the Organization of Biological Field
Stations, the goal of the network is to share experiences, methods,
and strategies for long-term observations and monitoring of
global change effects on mountain social-ecological systems.
The GNOMO section describes the efforts of some of the
GNOMO Working Groups and provides examples of some
of the observatories that populate the GNOMO network. The
observatory network is now over 100 sites strong and spread all
over the globe (see map at: https://www.google.com/maps/d/
viewer?hl=en&hl=en&authuser=0&authuser=0&mid=1S2O5
oUZJ-pfSWNz494jXe92aEzQ&ll=39.92252420912146%2C-
60.3966668828125&z=2). Through a variety of working groups,
researchers are collaborating to develop and apply protocols that
support comparative analysis, forecasts of likely outcomes, and
public and private decision-making. Two of the articles describe
sites in the International Network for Alpine Research Hydrology
(INARCH); although focused primarily on mountain hydrology,
these are also great examples of the types of observing efforts
GNOMO is working to support.
EDITORS WELCOME
Earlier this year, MRI teamed up with the six recently funded
Belmont Forum (https://belmontforum.org/funded-projects)
projects to share news, insights, and adventures as these projects
evolve over the next years. The projects are funded under the call
“Mountains as Sentinels of Change” and integrate natural and
social sciences in interdisciplinary, multinational approaches.
Although these projects are still quite young, you can read about
how they evolved and their challenges and discoveries to date in
the Belmont Projects section.
Our mountain climate-science community mourns the passing
in early November of a key leader, colleague, and friend, Kelly
Redmond. Among many other circles, Kelly was foundational to
CIRMOUNT and MRI. He made many important contributions
locally and nationally in mountain-climate monitoring,
climate communication, and climate implications for resource
management and policy. We feature a memorial section about
Kelly that includes recollections and stories contributed from
some of Kelly’s many, many friends.
We draw your attention in the CIRMOUNT Updates section
to the article by Jessica Halofsky and Dave Peterson, which
summarizes a decade’s worth of progress in promoting climate
adaptation strategies for US forest ecosystems. Jessica and Dave
are key leaders in this effort, and much of what they report is the
result of many decades of their boundary-spanning groundwork.
This would not be Mountain Views Chronicle without expressions
of art and poetry, in this issue contributed by research colleagues
from both the MRI and CIRMOUNT communities. We hope
you enjoy these as bookends to the mountain science, climate
adaptation, and natural history contained herein.
Connie Millar
CIRMOUNT, www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/
USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station
Albany, California, USA
Erin Gleeson
MRI, http://mri.scnatweb.ch/en/
Institute of Geography, University of Bern
Bern, Switzerland
CreaƟ ng ClimateWIse
Kate Brauman1, and Leah Bremer2
1Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota
2Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, California
Project Partners
Alexandra Ponette-Gonzalez1, Humberto Rocha2, Martina Flörke3
1University of North Texas, Denton, Texas, USA; 2University of
São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; 3University of Kassel, Kassel,
Hesse, Germany
After a gripping ve-hour drive, winding over skinny mountain
roads through goat traf c, we arrive in the tiny town of
Huamantanga (Fig. 1). The water that ows through this town
eventually ends up in Lima, Peru, and Huamantanga is one of
the rst community partners to work with AquaFondo - Lima’s
water fund. Like other water funds, AquaFondo works with
rural communities to support watershed conservation and
restoration to secure clean and ample water supplies for both
up and downstream water users. It turns out the community
of Huamantanga and the city of Lima have one major thing in
common: they both face water shortages in the dry season.
Building on the work of a local NGO, Alternativa, AquaFondo,
CONDESAN, and Huamantanguinos came up with two
innovative solutions. First, they’re restoring ancient pre-Incan
in ltration channels that the community believes “seeds” water
from the wet season to feed springs in the dry season (Fig. 2).
And, second, they’re running an experiment to see if removing
wild rodeo cows from their highland native grasslands (the
puna) might help to restore the natural soil “sponge” that slowly
releases water during the dry season.
We’re excited about water funds. They’re an example of an
Investment in Watershed Services (IWS) project designed to
improve downstream water resources by engaging upstream
residents in watershed conservation, restoration, and sustainable
management. We’re not the only ones excited about IWS
projects – they’re becoming more and more popular around the
world, especially in Latin America. We think that’s because they
have a ton of potential for win-win solutions that provide water
and improve livelihoods. On the other side of South America,
Brazilian farmers have signed on to the Extrema and Guandu
“water producer” projects not only because they, too, want less
sediment in their water but because the programs provide income
and offset the cost of riparian restoration.
Figure 1. Goat traf c on the voyage from Lima to the town of Huamantanga
BELMONT PROJECTS
3
Mountain Views • December 2016
But we don’t really know if IWS projects work. And we
de nitely don’t know if they are going to work as the climate
changes. That’s in part because there are still a lot of unanswered
scienti c questions about hydrology and climate change in South
American mountains. And it’s also because a lot of these IWS
projects are only just beginning to measure and monitor their
impact.
The trip to Huamantanga was part of a partnership with
CONDESAN, the Natural Capital Project, AquaFondo,
Huamantanga, The Nature Conservancy, and Forest Trends to
help gure out whether these unique investments in natural
infrastructure are working for ecosystems and people. The water
monitoring focuses on two watersheds, measuring ow in one
where rodeo cows will be removed and another where they will
continue stomping around for a while longer. CONDESAN
started collecting data before conservation activities started
to establish a baseline and continue to collect data now that
the cows have been rounded up. These datasets will help us
determine whether those cows really do affect the amount of
water available during the dry season (Fig. 3).
Although different than AquaFondo, the Extrema and Guandu
projects in Brazil are starting to ask a similar question: will all
this upstream conservation work improve hydrologic services
important to people?
Extrema, Guandu, and AguaFondo are among six IWS programs
that have installed hydrologic monitoring programs. A few are
even working to monitor social outcomes as well.
Figure 3. CONDESAN’s Luís Acosta works with community members
to install weirs in paired microwatersheds to evaluate the impact of
reducing cattle in the high grasslands on water availability in the dry
season.
Figure 2. Don Pedro, water manager of Huamantanga,
shows me a restored mamanteo – a pre-Incan
in ltration channel, which the community believes
increases water availability during the dry season.
BELMONT PROJECTS
4Mountain Views • December 2016
Figure 4. Monitoring teams from water funds across Latin America who will partner on the ClimateWIse project.
Working with these programs to help them understand the
data they’re collecting and to learn more about the hydrology
and climate of South American mountains in general is where
ClimateWIse comes in. Our rst step is to really dig in and
understand what various water bene ts stakeholders expect these
programs to deliver. Next, we’ll use the growing pool of data
to assess whether the programs are achieving these objectives.
Finally, we’ll use models to understand how climate change
will alter hydrologic outcomes of water funds and how these
programs can use this information to increase their long-term
effectiveness and resilience.
By linking with IWS programs in mountains across South
America, we can learn a lot about how land use and climate
change will affect water resources and, in the process, help
improve the programs themselves (Fig. 4).
ClimateWIse: Climate-Smart Watershed Investments in the
Montane Tropics of South America is a Belmont Forum-
funded project that will run from 2016-2019. Scientists from
the University of Minnesota, the University of North Texas, the
University of Sao Paulo, the University of Kassel, Germany and
the Natural Capital Project will work to evaluate Investments in
Watershed Services projects, right now and in the face of climate
change. Find out more on our website: http://environment.umn.
edu/discovery/gwi/our-work/climatewise/
Pictures by Leah Bremer.
BELMONT PROJECTS
5
Mountain Views • December 2016 BELMONT PROJECTS
CLIMTREE: Ecological and Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate-Induced
Tree Diebacks in Highland Forests
Carlos Lopez Vaamonde
URZF INRA Orléans, France
Project Partners
Christophe Bouget1, Rodolphe Rougerie2, Laurent Larrieu3,
Philippe Deuf c4, Elisabeth Herniou5, Jörg Müller6, Marius
Mayer7, Michael T. Monaghan8, Diego Fontaneto9, Davide
Pettenella10, Jun He11, and Douglas Yu12
1IRSTEA Nogent-Sur-Vernisson, France; 2MNHM Paris, France;
3Dynafor, INRA Toulouse & CNPF-IDF, France; 4IRSTEA
Bordeaux, France; 5IRBI CNRS-Université François Rabelais
de Tours, France; 6Bavarian Forest National Park, Germany;
7University of Greifswald, Germany; 8Leibniz-Institute of
Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Germany; 9Institute
of Ecosystem Study, CNR Italy; 10Padova University, Italy;
11Kunming Institute of Botany, China; 12Kunming Institute of
Zoology, China
Background
Mountain forests play a major role in the preservation of
biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services such
as climate regulation. However, some of these forests show
extensive tree mortality (“forest diebacks”) caused by a
combination of factors, such as severe and recurrent summer
drought, pollution, and insect and pathogen outbreaks. Some
of the most spectacular cases of forest diebacks are caused by
bark beetle outbreaks, which have killed millions of hectares of
conifer forests worldwide (Fig. 1).
Forest diebacks are expected to become more widespread,
frequent and severe. Indeed, warm and dry climate conditions
increase the number of bark beetle generations per year and
decrease tree vigor. Diebacks are accompanied by changes in
tree species composition, which can happen either by natural
regeneration or by arti cial replacement with better-adapted
species (i.e., those less sensitive to drought). The question of
how to manage forest diebacks is a signi cant concern for
forest stakeholders. Which tree species should be replanted?
What should be done with the large volumes of deadwood? The
ecological impact of harvesting and removing dead, dying trees
(salvage logging, sanitation salvage) is the subject of heated
debate.
How forest diebacks and associated tree replacements affect
changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services
remains poorly known. Similarly, how global changes in
mountain forests affect local economic activities is poorly
understood. The lack of data on the ecological impact
of mountain forest diebacks is partly due to insuf cient
biomonitoring. Traditional biomonitoring schemes are expensive
and very labor-intensive, as they require managing large amounts
of samples and taxa (Fig. 2).
Figure 1. Entomologists sampling stands of Norway spruce dieback in the Bavarian Forest National Park, Germany. Photo: Heiner M.-Elsner.
6Mountain Views • December 2016
Fortunately, the recent development of affordable high-
throughput sequencing is revolutionizing the eld of
biomonitoring. High-throughput sequencing allows the user to
simultaneously amplify and sequence specimens of all species in
mixed samples, a technique known as meta-barcoding.
Main Objectives
• To measure the ecological impact of mountain forest
die-offs and the salvage harvest of four ecologically and
economically important conifers: Norway spruce (Picea abies)
in the German Bohemian forest; silver r (Abies alba) in the
French Pyrenees; Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in the Italian
Alps, and Yunnan pine (Pinus yunnanensis) in China by
inventorying terrestrial and freshwater invertebrates and fungi
in experimental forest plots.
• To develop a new biomonitoring pipeline that will be simple
to use and provide an affordable, reliable, and veri able way
of monitoring forest biodiversity at a large geographical scale.
• To measure the socioeconomic impact of forest mountain
die-offs and salvage logging from surveys in Europe and
China.
• To identify the ecological and economic factors that
in uence stakeholder decisions and recommend more specic
policy actions based on the ndings of the socio-economic
study.
ClimTree Consortium
Our team comprises researchers from 13 institutions and four
countries (China, Italy, Germany and France) with strong
expertise in community ecology, social science, economy,
geography, entomology, DNA (meta)barcoding, biostatistics,
freshwater ecology and forest management. Three PhD students
and seven Master students will be trained during the three-year
project.
Current Work
Experimental plots with various degrees of forest decline have
been identi ed in the French Pyrenees (France), Bavarian Forest
National Park (Germany), and Yunnan mountains (China).
Environmental characterization of experimental plots using both
dendrometric measurements and dieback assessment is underway
(Fig. 3). Malayse traps have been set up in the Bavarian Forest
National Park and Yunnan mountains (Fig. 4). Samples will be
metabarcoded in the forthcoming months. Flying saproxylic
beetles are sampled with two cross-vane ight interception traps
(PolytrapTM) per plot. Terrestrial micro-invertebrates living in
leaf litter (meiofauna) are extracted in the lab from soil samples
collected in the eld.
Figure 2. A Malayse
sample containing
thousands of ying
insects kept in
ethanol. Figure 3. Laurent Larrieu, Philippe Deuf c and Marius Mayer assessing
the level of silver r dieback in the Pyrenees
Figure 4. Flying insects are sampled using one Malaise trap per plot.
BELMONT PROJECTS
7
Mountain Views • December 2016 BELMONT PROJECTS
ClimTree held its rst meeting 10-11 October 2016 at INRA Toulouse in southern
France (Fig. 5). We visited some experimental plots that show various degrees of
forest diebacks of silver r in the Pays de Sault in the eastern Pyrenees (Fig. 6).
Silver r is a drought sensitive tree species with low nutrient demands but high
moisture requirements. Since 2003, silver r shows severe growth decline in the
Pyrenees and Southern Alps, particularly below 1000 m of altitude and on south
facing slopes, rocky crests, and limestone areas (Figs. 7 & 8).
A eld campaign is currently planned for 2017, including qualitative and
quantitative socio-economic surveys.
Pictures by the authors unless noted otherwise.
Figure 5. Participants of the 1st
ClimTree meeting at Espezel
(Pays de Sault, France)
Figure 6. Pic Frau, Eastern Pyrenees
Figure 7. Silver r showing signs of dieback
in Pays de Sault
Figure 8. Extensive forests of silver r in Pays de Sault under threat by
climate change
8Mountain Views • December 2016
Ecological Calendars and Climate AdaptaƟ on
in the Pamirs, Central Asia
Kassam Research Group
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
What are Ecological Calendars?
Calendars enable us to anticipate future conditions and plan
activities. Ecological calendars keep track of time by observing
seasonal changes in our habitat (Fig. 1). The nascence of a
ower, emergence of an insect, arrival of a migratory bird,
breakup of ice, or last day of snow cover - each is a useful cue
for livelihood activities, such as sowing crops, gathering plants,
herding animals, hunting, shing, or observing cultural festivals.
Many human communities have developed unique and reliable
systems to recognize and respond to climatic variability (Fig.
2). Over the course of multiple generations living in particular
landscapes, people have accumulated knowledge of the relational
timing of celestial, meteorological and ecological phenomena.
Historically, these diverse ecological calendars enabled
communities to coordinate livelihood activities with seasonal
processes. However, due to colonization and industrialization,
these calendars fell into disuse. In the third millennium, these
calendars are pregnant with promise and require recalibration to
new conditions and increasing variability due to anthropogenic
climate change.
Why are Ecological Calendars Relevant?
The greatest challenge of anthropogenic climate change is lack
of predictability due to irregular and unprecedented weather
patterns. Developing anticipatory capacity – the ability to
envision possible futures and develop a dynamic plan to deal
with uncertainties – is urgent. In the context of climate change,
ecological calendars will contribute to food and livelihood
security. An estimated 70 to 80% of the world’s population
continues to rely on food produced by small-holder farmers
and herders (Figs 3, 4). Producing crops and raising animals, as
well as hunting, shing, and gathering, all require the ability to
anticipate patterns of temperature and precipitation. Communities
and researchers must develop innovative systems to recognize
climate trends and adapt to a greater range of possible scenarios.
The Project
The overarching aim of this project is to revitalize, recalibrate,
and develop new ecological calendars by integrating place-based
and indigenous knowledge with science (Fig. 5). Such a project
demands an effective partnership with speci c communities
that are at the vanguard of anthropogenic climatic variation.
In our project, trandisciplinarity is not where climatologists,
ethnographers, botanists, ecologists, educationists talk to each
Figure 1. ECCAP Logo, designed by Navajo Artist, Natani Notah, and
Karim-Aly Kassam.
Figure 2. Gathering fodder in Guddara. Photo: Karim-Aly Kassam.
BELMONT PROJECTS
9
Mountain Views • December 2016 BELMONT PROJECTS
other, but where they collectively engage in conversation with
ecological professionals such as farmers, pastoralists, gatherers,
hunters, shers and draw upon their practical wisdom. We have
found in our research, from the Standing Rock Sioux Nation in
the USA to the Pamir Mountains of China, that the conception
of ecological calendars is alive and well. In many pockets of the
world, communities are in tune with the seasonal rhythms of their
lands and how it affects their daily livelihoods.
This project aims to establish a proof-of-concept for ecological
calendars in collaboration with six diverse indigenous and rural
communities in the Pamir Mountains and the continental USA.
With support from the Belmont Forum, along with the National
Science Foundation (USA), the National Science Foundation
(China), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (Italy), and Deutsche
Forschungsgemeinschaft (Germany), our international research
team is collaborating with communities in the Shugnan Valley
of Badakhshan, Afghanistan; Alai Valley of Osh Province,
Kyrgyztan; Tashkurgan Valley of Xinjiang, China; and Bartang
Valley of Gorno-Badakhshan, Tajikistan. In addition, we are
undertaking similar partnerships with the Standing Rock Sioux
Nation in the Midwest and communities in the Lake Oneida
Watershed in New York State, USA.
Figure 3. Women sorting grain in Roshorv. Photo: Karim-Aly Kassam.
Figure 4. Roshorv. Photo: Karim-Aly Kassam.
Figure 5. Speaking to Wakhi pastoralists in the Tashkurgan Valley.
Photo: Siyu Guo.
10 Mountain Views • December 2016
Figure 7. Installing a climate station in the Alai Valley. Photo:
Tobias Kraudzun.
In July 2016, an international team of scholars and students
hosted workshops in the Alai Valley in Osh Province,
Kyrgyzstan, and in the Tashkurgan Valley in Xinjiang, China,
to conceptualize ecological calendars research in the Pamirs.
In addition to preliminary research, climate stations were
established in the high altitude mountainous communities.
In 2017, the research team will be returning to these
communities to continue participatory human ecological
mapping (Figs. 6, 7). In addition, we will establishing the
project in the Bartang Valley in Gorno-Badakhshan, Tajikistan
and Shugnan Valley in Badakhshan, Afghanistan. We will
integrate bioclimatic data with human ecological mapping to
generate hybrid maps for these regions. From 2017-19 we will
be working with international partners and communities to
develop:
(1) Workable ecological calendars integrating place-based
ecological knowledge with scienti c data;
(2) Proof-of-concept for application of ecological calendars
internationally;
(3) Transfer of knowledge between communities in different
bioclimatic zones;
(4) Curricula for inter-generational transfer and continued
adaptation of calendars; and
(5) High-pro le international conference on ecological
calendars for food and livelihood security.
Figure 6. Focus group meal in the Alai Valley, Photo: Tobias Kraudzun.
Who Is Involved?
The project team in the Pamir Mountains includes: Lead PI
– Karim-Aly Kassam, Cornell University, USA; Partner PIs
– Antonio Trabucco, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate
Change, Italy; Jianchu Xu, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, China; Cyrus Samimi, University of
Bayreuth, Germany; Ariff Kachra, University of Central Asia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan; and, Graduate Research
Assistants – Talia Chorover and Kayla Scheimreif.
The project team in the US includes: PI – Karim-Aly Kassam,
Co-PIs – Christopher Dunn, Amanda Rodewald, David Wolfe,
Arthur Degaetano, Post-Doc – Morgan Ruelle, Undergraduate
Intern – Tamar Law.
Our civil society partners are: AgWeatherNet (Washington State
University); American Geophysical Union; Cornell Biological
Field Station at Shackleton Point; Deutsche Gessellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbait (GIZ); FOCUS Humanitarian
Assistance (Tajikistan); International Centre for Integrated
Mountain Development (ICIMOD); International Society
of Biometeorology – Phenology Commission; International
Union for Conservation of Nature; Man and the Biosphere
Programme (UNESCO); Mountain Research Initiative (MRI);
US Department of the Interior - Climate Science Centers; US
National Phenology Network; Wakhan Pamir Research Project
(Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); and World Agroforestry
Centre (ICRAF).
BELMONT PROJECTS
11
Mountain Views • December 2016 BELMONT PROJECTS
NILE-NEXUS: OpportuniƟ es for a Sustainable Food-Energy-Water
Future in the Blue Nile Mountains of Ethiopia
Ben Zaitchik
Johns Hopkins University
Project Partners
Jeremy Foltz1, Paul Block2, Detlef Mueller-Mahn3, Gianni
Gilioli4, Andrea Sciarretta5, and Belay Simane6
1University of Wisconsin-Madison; 2University of Wisconsin-
Madison; 3University of Bonn, Germany; 4Universita di Brescia,
Italy; 5University of Molise, Italy; 6Addis Ababa University,
Ethiopia
I rst met Belay Simane at a United Nations negotiation in
Germany. We were both on government delegations to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
and during one of the many, many procedural delays we struck
up conversation. It turned out neither of us were full-time
negotiators. In fact, we were both researchers, and we were both
looking at the same place but from very different scales. Belay
is an agronomist, and he’d spent years working with farming
communities of the Blue Nile Mountains of Ethiopia to advance
household and village level climate resilience. I am a climate
scientist and hydrologist, and I’d been working with NASA to
study transboundary ows across the Nile basin with satellites
and regional models. Over several cups of overpriced conference
hall coffee, we began a discussion that has occupied both of us
over the six years since: how can we understand, quantify, and,
ultimately, contribute to optimal solutions for the multi-scale
environment and development challenges that face the Nile, from
household to basin? The Belmont Forum NILE-NEXUS project
is founded on this question.
Like mountainous regions around the world, the highlands
of Ethiopia are stunningly beautiful (Fig. 1). They are also
climatically and ecologically diverse, and the conditions in the
highlands are critically important for human population centers
downstream. But the Blue Nile Highlands also differ from many
other mountainous regions in that they are densely populated,
with villages, agriculture, and pastoral activities extending
nearly to the highest mountain peaks. This sets up a complex,
multi-scale dynamic for resource management in the area.
Smallholder, primarily subsistence-based, farming communities
cover the highlands (Fig. 2). Rapid population growth and
declining soil fertility conditions have driven deforestation and
tightening resource scarcity, which in turn contribute to some
of the highest erosion rates in the world (Fig. 3). This causes a
poverty trap for many in the highlands and degrades downstream
water value. But at a larger scale, the Blue Nile basin is central
to ambitious national and regional development plans. These
plans include the biggest hydropower dam in Africa (the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, currently under construction),
work to improve productivity of irrigated agriculture in lowland
Sudan and on into Egypt, and continued efforts to form satisfying
transboundary water agreements and mutually bene cial electric
grid interconnections.
This is a complex problem, and it demands an interdisciplinary
and creative research approach. For NILE-NEXUS, we’ve
assembled a team that includes experts in social dynamics of
rural development (Detlef Muller-Mahn, University of Bonn),
smallholder agricultural economics (Jeremy Foltz, University of
Wisconsin), Nile basin hydropower (Paul Block, University of
Wisconsin), highland biodiversity (Andrea Sciarretta, University
of Molise), and integrated socio-ecological systems modeling
Figure 1. Waterfall in the Blue Nile Mountains. Photo: Jose Molina.
12 Mountain Views • December 2016
(Gianni Gilioli, Universita di Brescia). Each of us had worked
on interdisciplinary projects before, but the range of disciplines,
language, and time zones on the NILE-NEXUS team has brought
us all of the excitement and all of the maddening challenges
that come with integrating diverse perspectives and different
(disciplinary) languages.
The NILE-NEXUS team met in person for the rst time this
past July on the banks of Lake Tana, at the center of the Blue
Nile highlands (Fig. 4). We met with local collaborators, made
student advising commitments at the local university (Bahir
Dar University), and visited candidate study villages. The result
of this meeting was a draft for an integrating social-ecological
systems model designed to capture multi-scale food energy and
water dynamics. Not surprisingly, we came away with more
questions than answers. How will we quantify social dynamics
for integrated modeling? Which aspects of biodiversity can we
Figure 2. Harvest season in the Blue Nile Mountains. Photo: Ben
Zaitchik.
measure and monitor? How will we capture decision making
processes and development opportunities across a huge, culturally
diverse and rapidly evolving basin?
Moving forward, our team will fan out over the mountains to
nd answers to these questions. Transects designed to capture the
topographic and cultural diversity of the basin are underway for
soils, cropping systems, and biodiversity. Focused erosion studies
will begin in 2017, as will interviews and surveys in villages
affected by dams and irrigation developments. Observations and
models are being integrated to generate retrospective climate
and stream ow reconstructions, which will in turn be rolled
forward as climate projections. Hydropower sensitivity to climate
and reservoir operation is being examined with hydroeconomic
models, and eld data on crop production are being applied
to calibrate process-based agricultural models. It’s a dizzying
number of tasks, and each has its own research questions and
complications. Ultimately, we will bring all of these studies
together to answer our guiding question: what options exist to
address emerging food-energy-water risks and opportunities in
a rapidly changing tropical mountain system in coming decades,
and what roles do local, regional, and national interests and actors
play in the selection of these options?
When we meet again in the Blue Nile Mountains in 2017, we
hope to be closer to answering that question.
Figure 3. Gully erosion. Photo: Sara Rasmussen.
Figure 4. Lake Tana, at the headwaters of the Blue Nile River. Photo:
Ben Zaitchik.
BELMONT PROJECTS
13
Mountain Views • December 2016 BELMONT PROJECTS
P3: People, PolluƟ on, and Pathogens—
Mountain Ecosystems in a Human-Altered World
Dirk Schmeller
Helmhol -Center for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
Project partners
Gael Le Roux1, Vance Vredenburg2, and Ji Shen3
1Paul Sbatier University, National Center for Scienti c Research,
Paris, France; 2San Francisco State University, San Francisco,
USA; 3Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing,
China
Trouble in Paradise
We just had arrived in the French Pyrenees. The beauty of
the Pyrenees was stunning, somehow reminiscent of the
mighty Canadian Rockies in its wildness and remoteness. We
marveled at the sharp peaks, clear waters and wonderfully green
vegetation, and pondered the multitude of research threads we
could explore in such a setting. As we discussed our priorities,
a colleague mentioned Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. This
unpronounceable jumble of letters represents one of the most
devastating amphibian diseases, and perhaps the single biggest
threat to frogs, toads and salamanders. Bd, our colleague told
us, had taken hold in the beautiful mountain watersheds of the
Basque country and was killing off amphibians at a frightening
rate (Fig. 1).
Bd, luckily referred to by its abbreviation, is also known as
amphibian chytrid fungus. You’ve probably heard of it: it’s
responsible for amphibian declines all over the world and
extinctions of up to 120 species. Since 2008, we’ve spent many,
many months rummaging around the Pyrenees in search of
amphibians, marveling at their diversity on the one side and the
devastation we found on the other (Fig. 2). After having visited
80 plus lakes and their proximal ponds and pools over almost the
full range of the Pyrenees, we’ve started to see patterns in the
distribution of Bd.
East, West and Central: Patterns in Bd
Distributions
In the eastern Pyrenees, the Mediterranean in uence is quite
obvious: granite outcrops, sparse vegetation, trees with needles
rather than leaves, bright, clear lakes and rivers. To the west,
the Pyrenees are characterized by red limestone, leafy trees and
darker, even reddish water bodies. The Pyrenees in the center,
especially in the department Ariege, are dominated by oak trees
and much denser vegetation due to more frequent precipitation
events. Was it a coincidence that we never found Bd in Ariege,
but only in the rockier limestone regions to the west? Could it
be that something in the water hampers the establishment of this
devastating amphibian pathogen?
The theories began to y. Perhaps the vegetation released some
sort of natural protection. Or maybe the local climate conditions
Figure 1. Lake Acherito (Ibon Acherito) on the Spanish side of the Pyrenees. The lake harbors several amphibian species, including the endemic
Calotriton asper. It is located at 1900 m elevation, and is the rst site in the Pyrenees for which Bd was reported.
14 Mountain Views • December 2016
somehow inhibit Bd, or the chemical composition of the
surrounding geology. Maybe amphibians in the central Pyrenees
have somehow built up a natural resistance, or perhaps Bd has
some sort of natural predator that only lives in this region (Fig.
3). As a scientist, though, you don’t just think of reasons why,
you think of ways to test your ideas. And so we started running
experiments, many of them.
What Stops Bd?
In a rst set of experiments, we found that water from uninfected
lakes reduced cultured zoospores much faster than water from
infected lakes, but that this effect vanished when we ltered the
water. This told us that it wasn’t the chemicals in the water that
prevented Bd growth, but something else. We then heated the
water, and found that it had a similar effect to ltration. Whatever
caused the rapid decline in Bd zoospores must therefore be alive.
So we set up a range of experiments using tiny zooplankton…
and hit the jackpot. We were able to establish that zooplankton
were preying on Bd zoospores, protecting amphibians from
infection (see References). That was a fantastic nd, and a
de nite milestone in understanding how chytridiomycosis might
be stopped (Fig. 4).
For better or worse, however, zooplankton itself is sensitive
to many environmental impacts. For example, the excrement
of livestock can introduce an excess of nutrients to the water,
or zooplankton can be eaten by introduced sh ( sh don’t
occur naturally in mountain lakes!). Climate change and direct
or indirect pollution from heavy metals, trace elements or
organic pollutants coming from pesticide use can also impact
on the diversity and density of zooplankton. Hence, a change
in the environment in which zooplankton live will very likely
be re ected by the composition, density and dynamics of the
zooplankton community. A healthy, undisturbed ecosystem is
likely to harbor a greater number of zooplankton species in
higher densities than a disturbed, polluted system.
Figure 3. An Alytes obstetricans (midwife toad) tadpole metamorphing
(ca. Gosner stage 39) in a highly eutrophic lake in the Pyrenean
Mountains. In altitudinal populations, midwife toad tadpoles can
overwinter over several years before becoming small toadlets.
Figure 2. The Bassies watershed in the Pyrenees of the Ariege at 1650 m elevation. It is home to newts, toads, frogs and many other freshwater
species, and consists of a multitude of water bodies of different sizes. The largest water bodies, however, are arti cial reservoirs for hydroelectric
power plants.
Figure 4. Alona guttata, an example of Bd-eating zooplankton.
BELMONT PROJECTS
15
Mountain Views • December 2016 BELMONT PROJECTS
Figure 5. The Pyrenees have been traditionally used for grazing live
stock. Here, we were discussing grazing with a shepherd at the Chapelle
d’Isard in the Pyrénées Ariégeoises.
New Research Directions
These were the ideas that led up to the newly funded project,
People, Pollution, and Pathogens (www.p3mountains.org).
The negative impacts of global change on mountain freshwater
ecosystems and their biota are expected to greatly outweigh
any potential bene ts. Although mountains are often thought of
as untouched landscapes, far from pollution and other human
impacts, the truth is that they are highly vulnerable and face
multiple threats from climate change, human impacts and other
sources. The goal of People, Pollution, and Pathogens is to
understand these threats, and our options for controlling them.
PEOPLE: Humans have exploited the timber, mining and
pasturage resources of mountain environments for millennia.
These activities and others have impacted mountain ecosystems
to varying degrees. Today, the rapid ux of people and resources
into and out of mountains compounds the challenges facing
mountains.
POLLUTION: Human activities, even those carried out far from
mountains, pollute pristine mountain areas at high altitudes.
Potentially harmful chemicals can be transported to mountains
by orographic effects and may enrich in lake sediments and
peat bogs. Habitat destruction can therefore lead to profound
disturbances in entire mountain ecosystems with strong impacts
on human society.
PATHOGENS: Food webs in destabilized mountain ecosystems
can be strongly altered, as illustrated by the zooplankton example
above. Such changes can result in the introduction of, and
increased vulnerability to, pathogens affecting both humans and
wildlife, such as diarrheic diseases.
The P³ project will conduct ecological research and policy
relevant actions on pollution, pathogens and anthropological
impacts in mountain ecosystems, especially at the interface of
aquatic and terrestrial habitats and in the socio-ecological system.
The research will be conducted in four mountain ranges: the
Pyrenees (France), Dhofar Mountains (Oman), Sierra Nevada
(USA) and the Great Hinggan Mountain (China). In a rst
step, P³ will develop a common database and collect data on
pollution and pathogens in the socioecological context along
gradients, then use this data to model different biotic and abiotic
parameters. Based on historical and newly collected data, P³ will
develop dynamic indicators and essential biodiversity variables
relevant for the mountain context to facilitate the engagement
with the general public, stakeholders and policymakers.
The P³ consortium has already started to roam the different
mountain ranges and is getting ready for an extensive eld season
in 2017. We will be talking to local authorities and all the hikers
we meet on our way (Fig. 5)— maybe you will be one of them!
All photos by Dirk Schmeller
References
Online articles about zooplankton predation on Bd zoospores:
http://www.scienti camerican.com/article/fungus-chomping-
micro-predators-could-protect-amphibians-from-decimating-skin-
disease/
http://grist.org/climate-energy/can-a-hungry-microbe-
help-us-turn-back-the-clock-on-extinction/?utm_
source=syndication&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=feed
http://colorado.icito.com/biodiversity-natural-micropredators-
key-to-controlling-frog-killing-chytrid-pathogen/
16 Mountain Views • December 2016
BELMONT PROJECTS
VULPES: VULnerability of PopulaƟ ons under Extreme Scenarios
Rachid Cheddadi
CNRS, The Center for Scienti c Research, Paris, France
Project Partners
Mark Bush1, Pierre Taberlet2, Kangyou Huang3, Anne-Marie
Lézine2, Paulo De Oliveira4, Louis François5
1Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Florida, USA;
2CNRS, The Center for Scienti c Research, Paris, France; 3Sun
Yet-sen University, Guangdong Sheng, China; 4University of São
Paulo, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; 5University of
Liège, Liège, Belgium
The following is a summary of the project aims; an article
about the origins of the project and its progress to date was not
available at the time of publication.
VULPES will evaluate the impact of past climate change on
mountain ecosystems and their genetic diversity from around the
world, and forecast potential impacts of future climate change.
Employing primarily existing fossil records from Morocco,
Cameroon, South Africa, China, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and
Brazil, VULPES will carry out a multi-disciplinary integration
of quanti ed climate variables from fossil records, ancient and
modern DNA (aDNA and mDNA), vegetation modeling, agent-
based modeling and statistics. Our goal is to answer the overall
question: "Are microrefugia the key to ecosystem sustainability
in montane ecosystems under projected climate change?".
This project will consider variability in mountain ecosystems
across the last 21,000 years; a period of extreme natural climate
change (e.g. transition from the last glacial period) and the more
recent, increasing impact of humans. VULPES will evaluate the
migration capacity of species, their potential in situ adaptation/
response, ecosystem turnover through time, the tipping points
that could lead to population extinctions, the rate of change
and, ultimately, de ne a vulnerability index/threshold. This
investigation will determine a global perspective on the effect
of different climate types and changes on montane ecosystems
encompassing semi-arid, tropical and temperate humid zones.
Also included will be socio-ecological analyses regarding
landuse, a key to establishing future food security. Combined,
our assessments will enable optimised conservation policies for
ecosystems, species, and genetic resources. This product will be a
valuable tool allowing local stakeholders to establish appropriate
management strategies for the mitigation of climate and land use
impacts on mountain ecosystems.
Poleka Kasue Mountain Observatory,
Los Nevados Natural Park, Colombia
Daniel Ruiz-Carrascal
Universidad EIA, Columbia, and
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Columbia University, New York, New York
GNOMO SITES
In the heart of the Colombian Andes lies the magical Los
Nevados Natural Park, one of the few places on Earth that has the
unique and fascinating páramo ecosystem. The páramo is home
to a great variety of plants and wildlife, many of them endemic
to this environment. Hundreds of people live in Los Nevados,
thousands of tourists visit the park every year, and a million
people drink from its waters in the lowlands. The overwhelming
peacefulness and beauty of the park immediately enchants.
Unfortunately, we have seen changes in Los Nevados that have
made us question how we can preserve something we do not
fully understand. We began a research initiative, the Poleka
Kasue Mountain Observatory, to preserve the valuable páramo
ecosystem and to make the magni cence and richness of our
mountains known to all.
The goal of our long-term, multi-tiered research project (now in
its ninth year) is to deepen our understanding of the function and
importance of páramo environments and assess the best suite of
adaptation strategies for their conservation. Our socio-ecological,
mountain monitoring system integrates seven components of
analysis:
(i) long-term changes in key circulation dynamics (e.g.
convective processes);
(ii) diagnostics of water balance and potential changes in
hydrological regimes;
(iii) assessments of biodiversity levels and vulnerabilities;
(iv) role of anthropic disturbances;
(v) carbon capture and storage in soils, peatlands and aquatic
microhabitats;
(vi) socio-economic factors (e.g. ecosystem services valuation,
community perceptions, land-use practices, and prevalent
concerns of stakeholders); and
(vii) long-term changes in climatic conditions (past climate
reconstructions, analysis of instrumental periods, hindcasts,
and climate model projections).
Lupinus alopecuroides and Senecio isabelis individuals on a steep slope
in the Lupinus Valley, north face of Poleka Kasue/Santa Isabel Nevado. Espeletia hartwegiana individuals in the headwaters of the Claro River
watershed.
18 Mountain Views • December 2016
Research activities are supported on the analysis of primary
data collected by weather and gauging stations, georeferenced
photographs, biological parameters from vegetation experimental
plots, and sets of temperature and relative humidity data loggers
installed along ~4,000 m altitudinal gradients.
The Field Work
Our history of quarterly eld trips to monitor on-the-ground
climatic and environmental variables in Los Nevados spans
back almost nine years. We learned to overcome the challenge
of coping with extreme weather conditions that characterize the
upper altitudinal range of the natural park. We set up campsites
within walking distance from local community-owned farm
houses that are located on the buffer zone of the protected
area, and carry all the weight to base camps. The weight in our
backpacks comes from a short list of devices, including optical
USB stations, which are required to read out data loggers that
were deployed in the protected area. Digital sensors ll in the
gaps of historical climatic information in Colombian high-altitude
environments and allow us to assess the impacts of the faster
tropical upper-tropospheric warming on the overall integrity of
páramo environments.
Climate and Water
A faster warming of the tropical upper troposphere worsens the
already rapid shrinkage of tropical mountain glaciers and disrupts
key local circulation dynamics. Our loggers were deployed
at elevational intervals of 300-500 meters, and are currently
measuring near-surface air temperature, relative humidity and
dew point at hourly intervals. Data are read out during quarterly
eld campaigns and processed to characterize ground-based
environmental lapse rates and time of occurrence of vertical
motions. Historical records, which span back to December
2008, are shared with the main institutions involved in research
activities, and are periodically posted to data library sites to
provide free access and visual representation.
The upper tropospheric warming also changes the altitudinal
distribution of solid and liquid precipitation in the headwaters
of local watersheds. Spatially-distributed hydrological modeling
is implemented to assess the potential changes in their eco-
hydrologic response. On-the-ground activities aimed at
measuring changes in snowpack melting, peatland and lagoon
water storage, instant stream ow, horizontal precipitation, and
water retention in páramo vegetation are being conducted in two
key watersheds (the Claro and Otún rivers) to support the study.
Cushion bog at about 4,600 masl feeding downstream Laguna Verde.
Andean condor.
GNOMO SITES
19
Mountain Views • December 2016 GNOMO SITES
Biodiversity and Anthropic Disturbance
Our initiative also includes assessments of biodiversity levels and
vulnerabilities. The project integrates different ecological scales
(from general ecosystem approach to speci c species level)
and multiple methodological approaches (from geographical
modelling to in-situ observations and long-term monitoring).
We are studying potential changes in the extent of life zones
and the current distributions of plant growth forms and species.
We are also assessing the vulnerability to climate change of
several plant species through the implementation of the Nature
Serve Vulnerability Index. We have installed experimental plots
along the altitudinal gradients to describe species presence and
abundance, and to gather baseline data for composition and
distribution of plant communities. A detailed photographic record
of experimental plots and plant species is also being stored for
comparison throughout the years to assess potential changes over
time.
We are also studying the role of anthropic disturbances such as
high-altitude res, which are causing almost-irreversible damage
to páramo soils, wetlands, fauna, and ora. In the surroundings
of Los Nevados, res are still set to regenerate grass for
livestock, prepare land after harvesting potato crops, and expand
utilized and cultivated land areas. In the absence of appropriate
techniques for controlling res, they can rapidly spread into
non-targeted natural vegetation inhabiting páramo zones. Our
group is currently working on understanding the slow recovery
time of páramo ecosystems by observing several places that were
affected by small-scale high-altitude res. We have also collected
soil samples from different horizons in several locations along
the altitudinal transects to determine the total amount of organic
material in soils and its fraction of non-labile carbon. The aim of
this activity is to properly determine the amount of carbon stored
in páramo soils and quantify potential carbon releases under
different scenarios of environmental pressure.
Looking to the Past, Valorizing the Present
As part of a larger investigation of the role of the tropics in
the global climate, our group teamed up with researchers from
the University of Maine (USA) to study the geologic record
of glaciation in the northern Andes in order to assess tropical
climate variability over the last ~20,000 to 30,000 years. We
are studying unconsolidated glacial debris and other geological
formations that may keep a record of the timing and magnitude
of past glacial advances. Field work activities involve detailed
mapping of glacial landforms and sample collection from several
moraines for surface-exposure dating. Weather station data are
also processed to determine changes in climatic patterns over the
instrumental record. Retrospective and prospective simulation
outputs of several global climate models, as well as reanalysis
data, are processed to assess historical and projected changes in
prevalent climatic conditions. Multi-model ensemble prospective
simulation runs are analyzed to assess climate change scenarios at
different spatial scales.
Slowly drying high-altitude water body. Unique ora on the Laguna Verde trail.
20 Mountain Views • December 2016
Headwaters of the Claro River watershed
Finally, our multidisciplinary team is including socio-
economic assessments. We have been interacting with multiple
stakeholders, local communities, visiting tourists and other
potential users of the environmental services of Los Nevados
and its surrounding areas to inform them about our scienti c
ndings and to obtain monetary values for the attributes and
functions of Colombian páramos. The results of the valuation
process allow us to evaluate and rank how the communities
value high mountain ecosystem environmental services. They
also provide us with key information to be shared with planning
and conservation institutions and policy makers in charge of
designing and implementing adaptation strategies. In this way,
we successfully link our role as researchers to the interests and
concerns of the communities, contribute to the social construction
and appropriation of knowledge, and inform policy- and decision-
making processes.
Photos by: Maria Elena Gutierrez and Daniel Ruiz-Carrascal,
Universidad EIA, Colombia
Paramo and the Olleta crater, Kumanday/El Ruiz Nevado.
North face of Poleka Kasue/Santa Isabel Nevado
Retreating glacier tongues on Kumanday/El Ruiz Nevado
GNOMO SITES
21
Mountain Views • December 2016 GNOMO SITES
22 Mountain Views • December 2016
GNOMO SITES
23
Mountain Views • December 2016 GNOMO SITES
24 Mountain Views • December 2016
GNOMO SITES
25
Mountain Views • December 2016 GNOMO SITES
Mount Elgon Forestry Resources and InsƟ tuƟ ons
Monitoring Program, Uganda
Daniel Waiswa
Uganda Forestry Resources & Institutions Center (UFRIC)
School of Forestry, Environmental & Geographical Sciences
Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
Mount Elgon is a unique cross-border afro-montane ecosystem
between Uganda and Kenya that provides a variety of goods
and services essential to human livelihoods. It is not only an
important biodiversity hotspot but also a major water tower for
both Uganda and Kenya, serving as a catchment area for the
drainage systems of many lakes and rivers. The Mt. Elgon region
supports a high population density (about 1000 people/km2), and
the people are heavily dependent on both subsistence farming and
the forest ecosystem for their livelihoods. It is thus an important
ecosystem that needs to be conserved. However, the ability of
forest managers, policy analysts, and scholars to understand the
nature of the human-forest nexus and how to sustainably manage
forest resources is severely hindered by the lack of clear and
systematic time series social and biological data.
The International Forestry Resources and Institutions (IFRI)
Research Program began at Indiana University in 1992 with
the aim of devising a rigorous way to collect, store and analyze
data regarding communities (institutions) and their forests. IFRI
differs from other research programs in three distinct ways:
(i) IFRI is a network of Collaborating Research Centers
(CRCs) that use the same methods and database to collect
environmental and social data. There are about 13 CRCs
globally and these are located in Africa, Asia, Latin America
and North America. Uganda Forestry Resources and
Institutions Center (UFRIC) at Makerere University, which is
involved in monitoring Mt. Elgon, is one of the CRCs.
(ii) IFRI methods use the Institutional Analysis and
Development (IAD) framework, which allows researchers to
transcend the boundaries of typical academic disciplines by
focusing on a variety of elements that in uence individual
choice in complex environments such as the human-forest
nexus.
(iii) The IFRI database contains both environmental and
social data, thus facilitating rapid and sophisticated analyses
concerning how humans interact with their forests.
It is because of IFRI’s uniqueness from other research programs
that it was deemed appropriate for understanding the human-
forest nexus on Mt. Elgon as it utilizes an interdisciplinary
Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) session for collecting socio-economic data.
26 Mountain Views • December 2016
approach in addition to enabling the collection and integrated
analysis of both environmental and social data necessary for
understanding the human-forest connection.
The IFRI Methodology (Nagendra 2007) is thus being employed
by Uganda Forestry Resources and Institutions Center (UFRIC),
Makerere University, to monitor forest resources and institutions
on Mt. Elgon. Two study sites, Kapkwai in Kapchorwa District
and Bufuma in Bududa District in eastern Uganda, were
established on Mt. Elgon in 1997 for the monitoring studies.
An additional two sites were established by the Kenya Forestry
Research Institute, another CRC in the region, on the Kenyan
side of Mt. Elgon. These sites are also employing the IFRI
methodology. Each site consists of a tropical high forest and a
neighboring settlement that is known to be utilizing the forest.
The IFRI methodology consists of a set of 9-10 protocols
(questionnaires) that are used to collect biological data about the
forest and socio-economic data about the settlements and their
people. The Forest Inventory utilizes a minimum of 30 randomly
established sample plots in which data about the ground cover
are captured. These data include the identi cation and size
of all vegetation present, as well as plot-level assessments of
canopy cover, slope orientation, elevation, soil characteristics
and evidence of human use/disturbance. On the other hand, the
social economic (livelihoods) survey focuses on site description,
history of the settlements, demographics, economic activities,
forest products and their valuation, rules associated with access
to forest resources and forest governance, among other variables.
It is worth noting that the IFRI protocols offer the exibility
of collecting additional user-de ned data concerning any issue
of interest, such as climate change. As such, each site is truly a
socio-ecological laboratory for data and knowledge generation.
Data collection is repeated every 2-4 years at each site as a
way of creating a monitoring dataset. All of the data collected
(biological and socio-economic) are kept in a single database.
Since 1997, these two sites have been revisited at least three
times and the data in a Microsoft Access Database are available
Measuring soil moisture and pH in the eld.
Capturing forest inventory data.
GNOMO SITES
27
Mountain Views • December 2016 GNOMO SITES
to the public, especially researchers, free of charge by contacting
the Database Manager. In addition to the data, the other outputs
of the monitoring research program include:
(i) Baseline information about forest conditions (including
biodiversity and rates of deforestation) and social measures
(including rules communities have with regard to forest use);
(ii) Reports on important changes in forests and their
conditions;
(iii) History of communities and their forests;
(iv) Analysis and publications of how socio-economic,
demographic, political and legal factors affect the
sustainability of a forest’s ecological system;
(v) Policy reports and briefs of immediate relevance to forest
users, government of cials, nongovernment organisations,
donors and policy analysts;
(vi) Trained interdisciplinary teams able to conduct rigorous
and policy-relevant research.
.
It should, however, be noted that further monitoring activities are
on hold due to lack of funding. Yet, the research program has the
potential to build on the existing data to address emerging issues
on mountain ecosystems such as landslides, climate change
and its impacts, adaptation and mitigation approaches, and
the promotion of the sustainable management of mountainous
ecosystems. For example, questions like:
(i) How can forest resources contribute more to the well-being
of local communities in mountainous areas as they grapple
with climate change impacts?
(ii) What roles can the existing datasets play in addressing
emerging issues like socio-economic declines in mountainous
areas?
(iii) How can sustainable management be ensured in
mountainous areas where deforestation and forest degradation
are on the increase?
(iv) How can mountain ecosystems in developing countries be
managed sustainably in the face of inadequate or no funding?
As such, we are seeking partners who are interested in working
with us to build on this long-term dataset and to lend their
expertise to research efforts that contribute to the well-being of
mountain ecosystems and their inhabitants. This includes de ning
new research themes in areas of forestry, institutions, climate
change and livelihoods, among others. If you are interested,
please contact me at waiswa@caes.mak.ac.ug or daniel.waiswa@
fulbrightmail.org!
Photos by Daniel Waiswa.
Reference
Nagendra, H. 2007. Drivers of reforestation in human-dominated
forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
104:15218-15223.
Village with gardens on the sides of Mt. Elgon National Park.
The Canadian Rockies Hydrological Observatory (CRHO)
John Pomeroy, Cherie Westbrook, and Warren Helgason
Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
Contact: Angus Duncan, Univ. of Saskatchewan Coldwater
Laboratory, Barrier Lake Field Station, Kananaskis, Alberta,
angus.duncan@usask.ca
The Canadian Rockies Hydrological Observatory (CRHO) aims
to improve the understanding of, and capacity to predict, the
changes in water yield from headwater basins where cold climate
processes predominate. It examines the water supply response
to climate variability in a range of mountain headwater eco-
hydrological site types, incorporating the transient responses
of both climate forcing and cryospheric and basin hydrological
response. Particular attention is paid to how snowpacks, forests,
glaciers, groundwater, wetlands, and frozen soils interact and
modulate the response of water supply to variability in climate.
The project supports improved water resource modelling and
management over larger river basins such as the Saskatchewan
and Columbia River basins by contributing advanced mountain
headwater hydrological modelling capability and future ows
under downscaled climate scenarios. It does so by strengthening
the hydrological and glaciological science foundation for
estimating water resource impacts from future climate scenarios,
and by testing and improving hydrological models that can be
used for current and future water resource assessments.
The CRHO includes 35 high elevation snow and weather
observation stations and stream ow stations in the headwaters
of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Alberta (Fig. 1), and are
focused at Marmot Creek Research Basin, Fortress Mountain
Snow Laboratory, Burstall Creek Basin, in Kananaskis Country;
Peyto Glacier and Helen Creek Basin in Banff National Park and
Athabasca Glacier in Jasper National Park. These sites include a
large variety of terrain, including valley bottom meadows, forests
(aspen, lodgepole pine, white spruce, sub-alpine r and larch),
treeline, alpine, glacier and glacier fore elds. 20 stations are
concentrated in clusters at Fortress Mountain (2099 – 2565 m)
and Marmot Creek (1436 - 2470 m) which are small, mountain
catchments covering a large elevation range and vegetation types.
A Typical CRHO Weather Station Includes:
Meteorological sensors:
Air temperature and relative humidity (Rotronic HC2-S3)
Wind speed and direction (RM Young 05103)
Radiation (Kipp & Zonen CNR4)
Snow depth (Campbell Scienti c SR50A)
Barometric pressure (Vaisala PTB110)
• Soil heat ux (Huske ux HFP01)
Soil moisture and temperature (Campbell CS650)
Weighing Precipitation Gauge (Geonor TB200)
Figure 1. Location of CRHO stations in the headwaters of the
Saskatchewan River Basin.
INARCH SITES
29
Mountain Views • December 2016
Additional sensors at select sites include (Figs. 2, 3):
Hanging tree (Coniferous tree lysimeter hanging from a
load cell on tower in a mature spruce forest to measure snow
interception by forest canopy – Upper Forest at Marmot
Creek)
Snow Pack Analyzer (Measures snow water equivalent
(SWE), snow density, liquid water content, ice content and
snow depth – Fortress Mountain, Helen Lake, Marmot Creek).
Pluvio (All-weather precipitation gauge that uses weight-
based technology to measure the amount and intensity of rain,
snow and hail – Fortress Mountain, Helen Lake).
Snow Scale (Measures snow pack SWE using load cell
technology. Unlike snow pillows, no antifreeze is necessary,
and the large measuring surface minimizes snow-bridging
effects – Fortress Mountain).
Parsivel (Laser disdrometer measures precipitation type and
intensity, drop size distribution and radar re ectivity – Fortress
Mountain).
All stations record data at 15 minute intervals on Campbell
Scienti c CR3000 dataloggers, housed in weatherproof logger
boxes. Power is supplied by 90 Watt Solar panels with 120 Ah
gel-cell sealed batteries housed in an insulated box on the ground.
Instruments are mounted on 3 m to 10 m triangular towers,
based on maximum snow depth. Data is transmitted through a
combination of cellular modems, spread-spectrum radios and
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)
transmitters.
Snow surveys (using a combination of ESC30 and Mt Rose snow
tubes, and snow pits) are conducted at most sites every month
in the winter (bi-weekly in the spring) to measure snow depth,
density and SWE. Hydrometric surveys using a combination
of Solinst Levelloggers for stage and Sontek Flowtrackers for
velocity using acoustic sounding are conducted bi-weekly during
snow-free months to measure discharge from the mountain
catchments.
LIDAR (Marmot Creek and Fortress Mountain) and UAV -
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (Fortress Mountain) ights have
been own, the latter using aerial photography to produce
orthomosiacs and Digital Surface Models. These products
allowing for excellent classi cation of land type and vegetation,
making the areas well suited for assessing the effects of forest
cover and terrain type on SWE, snow melt and albedo. Airborne
LiDAR and UAV have been used to measure snow depth in
alpine areas of Marmot Creek Research Basin and Fortress
Mountain Snow Laboratory.
Photos by John Pomeroy
Figure 2. Powerline site at Fortress Mountain, including met tower,
Pluvio, SPA, snow scale (buried) and Parsivel (not visible).
Figure 3. CHRO Fortress Ridge weather station at Fortress Mountain.
INARCH SITES
30 Mountain Views • December 2016
Wolf Creek Research Basin
INARCH SITES
31
Mountain Views • December 2016 INARCH SITES
GNOMO Looks Toward the Future of Mountain
Social Ecological Systems (SES) Research
Derek Kauneckis
Voinovich School of Leadership and Public A airs
Ohio University, Athens, Ohio
The Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs at Ohio
University, in partnership with the Mountain Research Initiative
(MRI), will soon begin a scoping study of the social science
data needs and research themes for a global system of mountain
observatories. The goal is to provide guidance for efforts to
establish an intellectual platform for sharing data and cross-site
analysis of mountain socio-ecological systems (SES) globally
into the next several decades. This forward-looking scoping
process will identify emerging research questions and data needs,
and highlight existing integrative research. The sample will
include members of partner research sites associated with MRI
and the Global Network of Mountain Observatories (GNOMO) in
order to take advantage of the wide geographic and disciplinary
diversity represented in the group. A short survey instrument
will be co-designed by a team of GNOMO members working
on integrating social data into ecological systems and include a
range of questions on current methods, data availability and gaps,
common research questions, and re ections on the structure of a
global system of mountain socio-ecological system observatories.
The nal product of the study will be a co-authored research
paper written for the community of mountain researchers
engaged, as well as practitioners, managers and policy-makers.
The paper will provide an assessment of current efforts, research
and data needs, and strategic directions to drive a global system
of mountain SES observatories. GNOMO members should look
forward to an email invitation to partner on the project. For
additional information, contact Derek Kauneckis at kaunecki@
ohio.edu.
GNOMO WORKING GROUPS
33
Mountain Views • December 2016
Working Towards a Global Network with Universal Data Access: A Data
PublicaƟ on Project with the Global Network of Mountain Observatories
Jon Pollak and Liza Brazil
Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc., Medford, Massachuse s
Data dissemination is a challenging task for many researchers
who operate monitoring stations. Data format, technology
requirements, and having a way for researchers to discover the
data must be considered and resources to develop and execute a
plan are often limited. Many members of the Global Network
of Mountain Observatories (GNOMO), which formed in the
summer of 2015, face these challenges even when knowing
with whom they want to share their data. Community data tools
are being developed, sustainability maintained, and utilized to
lower the barrier for researchers to publish their data so that the
scienti c endeavor can reap the bene ts of ef cient collaboration
around data and broader data reuse.
CUAHSI (the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement
of Hydrologic Science Inc.) is one organization, funded by the
US National Science Foundation, trying to solve the problem
of data dissemination so that researchers and educators can
spend more time researching or teaching and less time on tasks
like discovering, reviewing, downloading, and reformatting
data. CUAHSI is championing a pilot data publication project
with GNOMO that is taking advantage of existing tools for
uploading, publishing, discovering, and analyzing time series
data. This project has consisted of three major components. First,
representatives from the observatories responded to a brief survey
to describe their data holdings and availability. Second, CUAHSI
staff have worked with various observatories to format and
upload data to CUAHSI’s system, the Hydrologic Information
System. Finally, CUAHSI staff have developed tutorials so that
GNOMO members can learn the basics of using CUAHSI data
tools.
GNOMO WORKING GROUPS
Figure 1. The majority of GNOMO survey respondents indicated that
they had time series data that they would be willing to share openly.
Figure 2. Locations of observations in Los Nevados, Colombia as seen in CUAHSI's HydroClient (http://data.cuahsi.org).
34 Mountain Views • December 2016
The rst aspect of this data sharing project was to assess the data
holdings of the interested observatories, which was completed
in November 2015, with sixteen observatories af liated with
GNOMO responding. The rst, and most basic, question posed
to the observatories was whether or not they had data that they
were willing to share freely and openly. Of the sixteen, eleven
indicated that they would indeed be willing to share their data
freely and openly, which is currently a requirement to publish
data with CUAHSI.
Out of the eleven observatories that indicated the willingness to
share their data, four are now available using CUAHSI tools:
• Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory
• Sagehen Creek Field Station
• Poleka Kasue - Los Nevados
• NevCAN: Nevada Climate-Ecohydrological Assessment
Network
Data sets from these observatories are easily accessible using
CUAHSI data tools, such as HydroClient (http://data.cuahsi.org),
which is a web application for discovering and downloading data.
Data from these sites can also be retrieved and analyzed using
the WaterML R Package (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/
WaterML/index.html), which has been developed speci cally
for use with data from CUAHSI’s catalog in the R programming
environment.
This pilot project has enabled an exploration into what is possible
if existing data resources from mountain observatories become
integrated with other data providers such as US government
agencies like NASA and the USGS, in addition to providing
GNOMO community members who are not already sharing
their time series data a means to do so. Future efforts will focus
on expanding the number of observatories who are publishing
data and work towards building a community that is willing, and
has the resources, to disseminate data ef ciently with modern
internet technologies to enable global mountain science. If you
are interested in learning more, please visit the GNOMO website
(http://gnomo.ucnrs.org) or contact CUAHSI by sending a note to
help@cuahsi.org.
Figure 3. A visualization of relative humidity from Los Nevados, Colombia and NASA soil moisture data as seen in the
Data Series Viewer in HydroClient.
GNOMO WORKING GROUPS
35
Mountain Views • December 2016 GNOMO WORKING GROUPS
GNOMO_Soil: Globally Assessing the Impacts
of Disturbances on Montane Soil Diversity and FuncƟ on
Thomas Spiegelberger1, Aimee T. Classen2, and Zachary T. Aanderud3
1University of Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, Mountain Ecosystems, Saint-Martin d’Hères, France
2Museum of Natural History, Copenhagen, Denmark
3Plant and Wildlife Sciences, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah, USA
Understanding how changes in biodiversity are related to
changes in function is a critical challenge, especially in a time
of profound global change. In addition to the normal cycle of
environmental changes, mountain ecosystems are also challenged
by climate change and intensive human management all along
their steep vertical gradients. In mountains, climate change
is already resulting in reduced snowpack and fewer freeze-
thaw events, with consequences for water availability, erosion
processes, disease and pest resistance, and biodiversity, among
others. These changes are compounded by gradients of land
use intensity, which further contribute to the transformation
of ecosystem patterns and processes. In particular, human
activities have altered the rate, pathways, and ef ciency of the
movement of nutrients within and between the various biotic
or abiotic ecosystem compartments. For example, herd animals
mobilize essential nutrients, stimulating primary productivity
and enhancing decomposition as grazers remove vegetation and
deposit feces on soil surfaces (Fig. 1).
These changes not only affect how ecosystems function today,
but may also result in long-term legacy effects on ecosystem
processes in the future, as soil retains a long memory of changes.
Thus, the health of soil today has long-lasting implications for the
resilience of tomorrow’s ecosystems and their capacity to adapt
and sustain ecosystem services. Changes in the climate, such as
increasing temperature and decreasing soil moisture, are likely
to enhance the degree to which land-use alters ecosystem form
and function. While our understanding of montane ecosystems
is critical to maintaining global patterns of biodiversity and
ecosystem functioning, our ability to quantify the biodiversity
in these regions and predict how changes in biodiversity alter
important ecosystem functions remains limited.
The goal of GNOMO_soil is to assess the impact of land-use
and climate change on the links between microorganisms and
ecosystem function using soil samples collected from mountain
ranges around the world. The steep altitudinal gradients of
mountains can be used as space-for-time substitutions, allowing
us to draw conclusions regarding ecosystems processes under
future climate. We can also test ecological theories in the wide
range of globally distributed mountain systems in the GNOMO
network. Moreover, depending of the number of participating
sites and their access to weather data, we can draw insights on
the impacts of climate change on soil microbial diversity and
soil functioning. We will analyse bacteria, fungi, and soil fauna
(e.g., nematodes, tardigrades, and mites) using 16S and 18S
rDNA target-metagenomics and mid/near infrared spectronomy.
Combining these approaches should enable us to assess multiple
ecosystem processes and functions simultaneously. The molecular
analysis will identify baseline changes in soil biota, speci c
bacterial clades in uencing certain ecosystem functions such as
Figure 1. Soil sample from one of our transects at around
1500 m elevation.
36 Mountain Views • December 2016
methanogenesis and nitri cation, and offer a functional pro le of
the bacterial genes in uencing processes through Phylogenetic
Investigation of Communities by Reconstruction of Unobserved
States (PICRUSt).
Using this approach and partnerships within the GNOMO
network, we will be able to test hypotheses related to soil
biodiversity and land use change at a global scale. In particular,
we hypothesize that shifts in soil biodiversity are linked to
key soil functions (i.e., C mineralization, N mineralization,
and nitri cation), and that land use (as a disturbance) disrupts
these links. We expect that the effects on climate change (e.g.,
decreasing snow pack, increasing temperatures) will only serve to
further disrupt links between form and function (Fig. 2).
After a rst call for contributions, which was launched in
January 2016 within the GNOMO network but rapidly spread
to the LTER-community and beyond, 53 sites in 24 countries
distributed across Asia, North and South America, Australia
and Europe expressed interest in participating in our project.
We ask participants to sample soils at three points along a high
elevational gradient, namely at the upper, lower and mid points
of the gradient. At each site, 5 soil cores are collected from a plot
in pristine or near-natural environment, and 5 soil cores are taken
from an area altered by direct human interference. A rst batch
of samples along eight gradients was taken this summer (2016)
in the Northern Hemisphere. Further samples will be collected at
sites in the Southern Hemisphere in the coming months. We will
soon begin analyzing the rst samples using mid/near infrared
spectronomy.
We expect that about 20 gradients will be sampled in this rst
year, which would add up to 120 plots and 600 soil cores in total.
That makes for a unique common sampling effort, and a lot of
data to analyse!
Photos by Thomas Spiegelberger
Figure 2. Schema of the distribution of the plots along a gradient.
GNOMO WORKING GROUPS
37
Mountain Views • December 2016 GNOMO WORKING GROUPS
From Email Silence to StarƟ ng Line: Progress in GEO-GNOME
Greg Greenwood
Mountain Research Initiative, Bern, Swi erland
There are good reasons to go to big meetings, and maybe even
better reasons to go to ones you haven’t attended before! In the
space of 24 hours, and by talking to variety of people at the GEO
XIII Plenary meeting on 8-10 November 2016 in St-Petersburg,
Russia, I’ve made more progress in advancing our GEO-GNOME
project than I’ve made in months. In short, I seem to have found
a way forward for our mountain data portal issue (Fig 1).
The GEO project Global Network for Observations and
Information on Mountain Environments (GEO-GNOME) is the
central effort by MRI and our colleagues from CNR (National
Research Council) in Italy to organize the mountain data realm.
By working within the GEO framework, we have the best chance
of attracting resources and expertise to the goal of making
mountain data available and pertinent.
A few weeks ago, with the outstanding help of Jürg Krauer of
CDE (Centre for Development and Environment, University
of Bern), Davnah Payne of GMBA (and Roger Sayre of USGS
Global Ecosystem Mapping, we were able to achieve Task 1
of GEO-GNOME – Delineate accurately mountain regions
using best available data. Jürg applied two different de nitions
of mountains (the so-called Kapos and Körner de nitions) to
a best available 250m DEM to produce two coverages that he
subsequently combined with a landform coverage based on the
same DEM used at USGS. He then overlaid all three coverages
so that we could compare and contrast these coverages. Davnah
ensured that these coverages are available on the ILEAS server at
Bern (Fig. 2).
This rst task is not quite nished because the results are not
yet easily discovered by other users (had I not told you, would
you have known?) nor easily explored. At the moment, you can
only view the data if you are an experienced GIS user who can
download the coverages and open them in a GIS. We hope to
develop a user interface in early 2017 with the help of the USGS;
stay posted!
Task 2 of GEO-GNOME - Compiling data that quantify
ecosystem services, socio-economic measures, and drivers
arising from or impinging upon mountains – is the central task
Figure 1. The ice jam is nally breaking up, at least where GEO-
GNOME and data portals are concerned! Open source image: the Neva
River in St. Petersburg.
Figure 2. Comparison of the three coverages for Uganda/Kenya, where the differences are especially visible. Green indicates complete agreement
between the three de nitions. The USGS (ELU) coverage is most generous (orange); the GMBA de nition the most stringent.
38 Mountain Views • December 2016
of GEO-GNOME. Task 2 focuses on discovering (and making
discoverable) mountain-relevant data, making them usable and
purveying them to users. Task 2 would, for example, render the
mountain coverages described above discoverable, viewable, and
downloadable by other users. But coverages are just the tip of the
potential mountain data iceberg!
To incorporate the multitude of mountain-relevant data, we
need a mountain data portal, a web-based application optimized
for the mountain social-ecological research community. About
two weeks ago, I sent around an email to people associated
with this kind of technology within GEO-GNOME to launch a
discussion about speci cations. No one replied, which was rather
discouraging. That’s where I was when I left for the GEO XIII
plenary in St-Petersburg: at a standstill.
Upon arriving in St-Petersburg, I immediately joined a dinner
meeting organized by the GEO Secretariat staff (Gary Geller and
Vanessa Aellen). The objective of the meeting was to explore
common interests between GEO-GNOME and a number of
other projects: GEO Cold Region Initiative (GEOCRI), GEO
Biodiversity Observing Network (GEOBON), ILTER, WMO
Global Cryosphere Watch, WMO Integrated Global Observing
System and Sustained Arctic Observing Network. It quickly
became obvious to me and Hannele Savela and Yuboa Qiu of
GEO CRI (Group on Earth Observations Cold Regions Initiative)
that we had a common interest in community portals.
The next day, we sat down at lunch with with Basanta Shrestha
of ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain
Development in Nepal) (as ICIMOD has a data portal, too)
and hammered out a quick description of a potential workshop.
The workshop would bring together solutions known to us (e.g.
the HydroServer of CUASHI that holds time series data from
GNOMO sites, the ICIMOD web GIS server, etc.) so that we
could all see the different functionalities. It seems likely to me
that participants would eventually agree on a set of generic
functionalities common to all efforts, with a few bells and
whistles for each community. We might then be able to pool
our resources as a group to engage a software engineer to build
something that would work for all of us.
Literally three hours later, I found that consultant: the European
Space Agency! In fact, just before the afternoon coffee break,
ESAs consultant presented a demo of the new GEOSS portal
(http://www.geoportal.org//), which seems to do quite a lot of
what I would want in a mountain data portal (Fig. 3). Right after
the demo, I went to the ESA booth and asked the consultant
if he thought that the portal could be adapted for use by
speci c communities (e.g. the mountain community, the Arctic
community, the cryosphere community), and if so, would ESA
be willing to run a training program to instruct the different
communities in the use and adaptation of the portal. The answer
was a tentative yes to each question, provided that the training
programs were approved as GEO activities. Barb Ryan, the
Executive Director of GEO, replied that she thought this was a
great initiative. And so, in a very short time, I went from email
silence to a potential project early next year!
To be clear, this workshop would only accomplish part of Task
2’s objectives: it would provide us with a way to nd, purvey,
and use data, but it would not provide the data themselves. Still,
if you are going to make wine, you better have the vat ready
before you start pouring the juice! If we can develop a web-based
application that performs these tasks, then the conversation with
data holders would shift from “Would you be willing to provide
you data, someday, somehow” to “Can you please put your data
here now?” This would be real progress!
If you want to try the GEOSS data portal and provide feedback,
go here https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc1-ES
lw5gOQcrS72OeEPMba39YN6PhWRABnJsocdcodb-Sew/
formResponse
You will nd short instructional videos that lead to some
exercises and quiz questions.
Figure 3. GEOSS Portal.
GNOMO WORKING GROUPS
39
Mountain Views • December 2016 GNOMO WORKING GROUPS
GNOMO Working Group – StaƟ on SiƟ ng and Data Standards
Eric Kelsey
Mount Washington Observatory and Plymouth State University, Plymouth, New Hampshire
Mission
Measuring climate and hydrologic variables in montane
environments is challenging on many fronts: logistics of
maintaining instrumentation at typically remote sites, best
instrumentation choice for the range of environmental and
atmospheric conditions, best location in highly variable
topographic conditions (e.g., vegetation, aspect, slope, exposure
to sun and wind), properly cataloging metadata, and that
measurements can be compared with observations from other
montane regions globally. This sample of logistical challenges
must be resolved to ensure that measures of global montane
climate changes are fundamentally sound. Currently, standards
for instrument siting for measuring climate and hydrologic
variables do not exist, which is a problem that the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) recognizes and has
struggled with for several years. While WMO and National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US) standards exist
for relatively at (and hence generally low elevation) locations,
climate and hydrological measurement standards are a necessity
for proper global monitoring of montane climate, which is a
critical and urgently need to understand modern montane climate
change.
Progress and Future Work
This GNOMO Working Group will soon begin meeting with
the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observations
(division of WMO) to develop a plan to address this pressing
issue. GNOMO members who work in montane environments
and regularly face these siting and measurement challenges will
contribute needed expertise to develop standards within the
established procedural framework of WMO-CIMO. GNOMO
members are also developing a Mountain Research Methods
guidebook, which will include discussion on current and best
methods for climate and hydrological monitoring.
De-Icing: Observer Tom Padham deices the
instruments atop the parapet at the summit of Mount
Washington, New Hampshire.
Deck Slining: Observer Rebecca Scholand performs the hourly ritual of
using a sling psychrometer to measure temperature and humidity atop
Mount Washington, New Hampshire. Hourly temperature and humidity
have been measured using this same method since 1932.
Mount Washington Observatory technicians work on the
1370 m weather station located along the Cog Railway
that ascends Mount Washington on its west side.
AdapƟ ng to Climate Change in Western NaƟ onal Forests:
A Decade of Progress
Jessica E. Halofsky1 and David L. Peterson2
1University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Sea le, Washington
2USDA Forest Service, Paci c Northwest Research Station, Sea le, Washington
National forests in the western United States comprise a
large proportion of the forested landscape of the Western
states, providing many ecosystem services, including timber,
water, food, bioenergy, plant and animal habitat, recreation
opportunities, and cultural values. Climate change will likely
affect the provisioning of these forest ecosystem services,
shifting ecosystem productivity, disturbance regimes, and species
composition. With increases in temperatures over the last several
decades, changes in hydrological processes, including reductions
in snowpack, mountain precipitation, and stream ow have
already become apparent in some locations. Across the western
U.S., there have been increases in area affected by wild re
and insect outbreaks. These trends are likely to continue with
increasing temperatures in the coming decades, with disturbance
driving forest ecosystem change.
To minimize the negative effects of climate change on forests
and the services they provide, natural resource managers need to
both understand the potential effects of climate change and have
options to address those effects. In recent years, governmental
and nongovernmental organizations have been developing
climate change vulnerability assessments and exploring
adaptation options (Fig. 1). Federal land management agencies
in the United States are required to evaluate the potential risks
associated with climate change to minimize short- and long-
term effects on their operations and mission. As mandated in
Executive Orders 13514 and 13653 issued by President Obama,
many federal agencies have now developed general climate
change vulnerability assessments, adaptation plans, and strategies
for addressing climate change. For example, the U.S. Forest
Service provided speci c direction to the National Forest System
in the form of the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate
Change and the Performance Scorecard for Implementing the
Forest Service Climate Change Strategy. Similarly, the U.S.
National Park Service released a Climate Change Response
Strategy that provided direction to the agency and employees
in addressing climate change, followed by a Climate Change
Action Plan, which contained further guidance for national park
managers for responding to climate change.
CIRMOUNT UPDATES
Figure 1. Glacially carved landscapes, dense coniferous forest, and deep lakes are common in the Northern
Rockies, where the Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership was conducted. Photo: National Park Service.
41
Mountain Views • December 2016
Despite recent progress in climate change assessments and plans,
development of local to regional-scale vulnerability assessments
and adaptation plans has been slow and uneven across agencies
and organizations. Much of the progress to date has been
accomplished through science-management partnerships, which
have emerged as effective catalysts for developing vulnerability
assessments and land management adaptation plans at both
strategic (general) and tactical (on-the-ground) levels (Fig. 2).
Science-management partnerships typically involve iterative
exchange of information on regional climatology and climate
change effects from scientists, and of information on local
climate (and weather), ecology, and management from managers.
This iterative information sharing aids identi cation of key
vulnerabilities to climate change at the local scale, setting the
stage for developing place-based adaptation strategies and tactics.
The Process
Our journey started in 2007. Prompted by the Fourth IPCC
Assessment released that year, the American public and political
leadership became more engaged in the realities of climate
change, and federal agencies started to make progress, typically
led by scienti c efforts within the agencies. The rst climate
change vulnerability assessments in national forests were initiated
in Tahoe and Inyo National Forests (Connie Millar, Toni Lyn
Morelli) and in Olympic National Forest (Jessica Halofsky,
Dave Peterson). There was no recipe or guidebook, and although
assessments for various topics are common in federal agencies,
addressing climate change was a new topic, and we made things
up as we went along, while building relationships with local
resource managers.
These seminal climate-change assessments led to a four-stage
process that has now been institutionalized in the Forest Service
(Fig. 3). First, education is provided to federal resource managers
to ensure a common understanding of basic climate science and
how it applies to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Education
takes place in workshops or webinars. Second, the assessment
is conducted by teams of scientists, resource managers, and
often stakeholders to project the effects of climate change on
vegetation, water resources, sheries, etc. Although some new
analyses are often conducted (e.g., vegetation modeling), most of
Figure 3. The process used by Adaptation Partners to build organizational capacity for
climate change in the U.S. Forest Service and other agencies.
CIRMOUNT UPDATES
Figure 2. Dry forest dominated by ponderosa pine (shown here in Deschutes National Forest) is common at low to mid elevations
in south central Oregon, where the South Central Oregon Adaptation Partnership was conducted. Photo: Miles Hemstrom.
42 Mountain Views • December 2016
the assessment consists of synthesizing existing information and
developing inferences about climate change effects. Third, the
assessment is used as the basis for developing adaptation options
in response to potential climate change effects. Adaptation
options are elicited from resource managers in a workshop
setting. Finally, all of the preceding information is (potentially)
implemented in national forests operations, including land
management plans, NEPA documents, project plans, and
monitoring programs. Implementation is at the discretion of
national forest leadership, and although it has generally been
slow, the pace of implementation is accelerating, motivated by
the Forest Service Planning Rule (2012) and recent guidance
issued by the Council on Environmental Quality (2016).
Science-management partnerships have been the foundation for
all assessments conducted during the past decade. Consisting of
a group of researchers and resource managers who work together
over a two-year period, the partnership implies both trust and
commitment in producing a nal product that will be useful to
the national forests. That product is typically a published report
(a Forest Service General Technical Report), but also includes
journal articles that document the science, in addition to face-
to-face meetings with national forest leadership and planners
responsible for incorporating climate change into operations.
Most climate change assessments in the western U.S. have
been conducted by our Adaptation Partners organization
(adaptationpartners.org). Although funded mostly by the Forest
Service, we work with a wide range of federal, state, university,
tribal, and non-governmental partners (the more perspectives the
better). And we normally conduct assessments using an all-lands
approach that includes lands outside national forest boundaries.
Making Progress
To date, we have established seven climate change partnerships
located in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota,
Utah, Nevada, and Wyoming, encompassing 38 national forests,
29 national park units, and other lands (Fig. 4). These projects
cover about 27 million hectares of forest and rangeland. The
partnerships have been small (Olympic Peninsula: 1 national
forest, 1 national park), medium-sized (South Central Oregon: 3
national forests, 1 national grassland, 1 national park), and large
(Northern Rockies: 15 national forests, 3 national parks) (Fig. 5).
Assessments that include larger geographic areas are of course
more work and more complex. They also include more partners
and stakeholders, which strengthen the project, but also make it
more complex in terms of subject matter and communication.
The focus of climate change assessment and adaptation is
evolving. In early assessments, the highest priority resource areas
were water resources, sheries, vegetation, and wildlife. The
scienti c literature contains a large amount of information on the
rst three of these topics, but not much on wildlife. In addition,
existing information on water, sh, and vegetation can often be
supplemented by modeling the effects of climate change with
respect to hydrology, stream thermal characteristics, and altered
plant distribution and abundance, respectively. As a result, we are
relatively con dent about the projections for these resource areas.
More recently, federal managers have become increasingly
interested in recreation, infrastructure, and cultural resources,
for which little scienti c information is available. We have
pioneered assessment approaches to these topics in collaboration
with scientists and local resource experts, typically with minimal
Figure 4. National forests (greens) and national parks (brown) involved in seven
adaptation partnerships across the western U.S.
CIRMOUNT UPDATES
43
Mountain Views • December 2016 CIRMOUNT UPDATES
published documentation, although observation and experience
provide the basis on which high-quality inferences can be based.
In addition, resource managers usually have creative ideas for
how to adapt to different climate change scenarios for these
resource areas. Ecosystem services are another topic often
addressed in recent assessments. This category can cover issues
such as water supply, timber production, carbon sequestration,
and pollination. Because ecosystem services are so diverse, it
is necessary to be speci c about priority services for any given
location. The amount of scienti c information is variable, but
as above, resource managers can typically provide feasible
adaptation options.
A New Resource for Adaptation
In all of the partnerships, we identi ed adaptation strategies
(general, strategic), and adaptation tactics (speci c, on the
ground) for each strategy. This information was recently
compiled in the Climate Change Adaptation Library for the
Western United States (adaptationpartners.org/library.php), to
be used as a resource for anyone interested in climate change
adaptation in natural resources. The Adaptation Library includes
adaptation options for forest vegetation (Table 1), non-forest
vegetation, riparian/wetland systems, wildlife, water resources,
sheries, and recreation. Around 150 adaptation strategies and
450 tactics are currently in the Library, and more will be added
in the new future. We are currently in the process of converting
the Library into a searchable database, and plan to add additional
categories for cultural resources and ecosystem services.
The Adaptation Library can be used by the U.S. Forest Service,
National Park Service, and other public agencies in many ways,
including the following aspects of natural resource management
agency operations:
• Planning documents and their components: Provide
objectives, standards, and guidelines (e.g., land management
plans, general management plans)
• Resource management strategies: Incorporate information
into conservation strategies, re management plans,
infrastructure planning, and state wildlife action plans
• Project design/implementation: Provide mitigation and
design tactics at speci c locations.
• Monitoring evaluations: Provide periodic evaluation of
monitoring questions.
In the process of incrementally building the Adaptation Library,
we found considerable concurrence in adaptation strategies
and tactics among different regions and management units.
This suggests that there is a nite set of responses to potential
Figure 5. Dry upland herblands dominated by Idaho fescue occur on the Umatilla National Forest in northeastern
Oregon, where the Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership was conducted. Photo: Mark Darrach.
44 Mountain Views • December 2016
climate change effects, and that although the Library is intended
as a dynamic resource, the accretion of adaptation options in
the Library over time will be asymptotic. This concurrence
also exists between the Library and a large, independent effort
conducted for forest systems in the eastern U.S. thus providing
con dence in the universality of at least a core of adaptation
options. Finally, a large proportion of adaptation options in
the Library is already established as tools and techniques used
in sustainable resource management. Rather than revamping
existing principles and practices, climate-smart management
will often be most effective for establishing priorities for speci c
resources and locations within management units.
Table 1. A sample of climate change sensitivities, adaptation strategies, and adaptation tactics associated
with forest vegetation, from the Climate Change Adaptation Library.
Although climate change adaptation is not a cookbook process,
the Adaptation Library provides a science-based foundation for
resource managers who want to develop adaptation responses to
climate change. Adaptation strategies and tactics in the library
can be used “off the shelf” because they have already been
thoroughly vetted and peer reviewed. They can also be revised
for local conditions, and new options can be added. Resource
managers may nd comfort in the fact that the Library is based
on information elicited from other managers like themselves, and
is not developed by scientists without real-world input.
CIRMOUNT UPDATES
45
Mountain Views • December 2016 CIRMOUNT UPDATES
Toward Full Implementation
A relatively new endeavor for public land managers, climate
change adaptation is typically complex and lled with
uncertainty, and science-based processes and guidelines are
still evolving and being tested. Climate change vulnerability
assessments are increasingly a component of risk assessment
for resource planning and management, and adaptation is
increasingly a component of risk management. Including climate
change as a component of resource planning and management,
which was viewed in the recent past as merely desirable, is now
required in the U.S Forest Service and National Park Service, and
is becoming a more common element of agency operations.
The biggest challenge for U.S. federal agencies in embracing
climate change has been building the organizational capacity to
address a complex issue that affects multiple resources. Most
resource specialists are already fully committed to ongoing
projects and regulatory requirements, and agencies have seen a
steady decline in budgets and personnel over the past 20 years,
making it dif cult to take on new responsibilities. Although
education and training on climate change have generally been
available, they are only a precursor to aspects of decision making
and management that require assessment of climate change
effects and responses to them.
Implementing adaptation options in local management units
can be challenging. We anticipate that this will gradually occur
over time as policies change, as plans and programs are revised,
and especially when extreme weather events (e.g., multi-year
droughts) and major disturbances (e.g., large wild res) capture
the attention of agencies, local communities, and stakeholders.
Adaptation is more likely to be successful when multiple parties
collaborate on implementation across large landscapes, rather
than acting independently.
We are optimistic that climate change awareness, climate-smart
management and planning, and implementation of adaptation in
U.S. federal agencies will continue to improve. We anticipate that
within the next 10 years:
• Climate change will become an integral component of
business operations.
• The effects of climate change will be continually assessed on
natural and human systems.
• Monitoring activities will include indicators to detect the
effects of climate change on species and ecosystems.
• Agency planning processes will provide opportunities to
manage across boundaries.
• Restoration activities will be implemented in the context of
the in uence of a changing climate.
• Institutional capacity to manage for climate change will
increase within federal agencies and local stakeholders.
• Managers will implement climate-informed practices in
long-term planning and management.
As adaptation options are implemented, it will be critical
to monitor their effectiveness across different landscapes.
Monitoring data provide feedback that can be used to validate
existing options, inform their modi cation, or develop new
options to be tested. Working across multiple jurisdictions and
boundaries and collaborating with the research community
will ensure that diverse perspectives are represented and that
effectiveness monitoring is robust. This approach requires a
multi-decadal commitment to integration of climate-smart
thinking in all aspects of resource management.
46 Mountain Views • December 2016
References
Buotte, P.C., D.L. Peterson, K.S. McKelvey, and J.A. Hicke.
2016. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate
change vulnerability assessments of natural resources. Journal of
Environmental Management 169:313-318.
Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, S.K. Dante, J.J. Ho, and L.A.
Joyce (eds.). Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change
in the Northern Rocky Mountains. USDA General Technical
Report RMRS-GTR-xxx. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort
Collins, CO. In press.
Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, K.L. Metlen, M.G. Myer, and V.A.
Sample. Developing and implementing climate change adaptation
options in forest ecosystems: a case study in southwestern
Oregon, USA. Forests. In press.
Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, T. Warziniack, and J.J. Ho.
Understanding and managing the effects of climate change on
ecosystem services in the Rocky Mountains. Mountain Research
and Development. In press.
Halofsky, J.E. and D.L. Peterson (eds.). 2016. Vulnerability
and adaptation to climate change in the Blue Mountains. USDA
General Technical Report PNW-GTR-939. Paci c Northwest
Research Station, Portland, OR. In press.
Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, L.A. Joyce, C.I. Millar, J.M.
Rice, and C.W. Swanston. 2016. Implementing climate change
adaptation in forested regions of the western United States.
Pages 165-178 in V.A. Sample and R.P. Bixler (eds.), Forest
Conservation and Management in the Anthropocene. University
Press of Colorado, Boulder.
Halofsky, J.E. and D.L. Peterson. 2016. Climate change
vulnerabilities and adaptation options for forest vegetation
management in the northwestern USA. Atmosphere 7,46;
doi:10.3390/atmos7030046.
Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, and K.W. Marcinkowski. 2015.
Climate change adaptation in United States federal natural
resource science and management agencies: a synthesis. U.S.
Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC. Available at
http://www.globalchange.gov/sites/globalchange/ les/ASIWG_
Synthesis_4.28.15_ nal.pdf
Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, M.J. Furniss, L.A. Joyce, C.I.
Millar, and R.P. Neilson. 2011. A workshop approach to the
development of climate change adaptation strategies and actions
for natural resource management agencies in the U.S. Journal of
Forestry 109:219-225.
Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, K. O’Halloran, and C. Hawkins
Hoffman. 2011. Adapting to climate change at Olympic National
Forest and Olympic National Park. USDA Forest Service General
Technical Report PNW-GTR-844. Paci c Northwest Research
Station, Portland, OR.
Littell, J.S., D.L. Peterson, C.I. Millar, and K. O’Halloran. 2012.
U.S. national forests adapt to climate change through science-
management partnerships. Climatic Change 110:269-296.
Peterson, D.L., C.I. Millar, L.A. Joyce, M.J. Furniss, J.E.
Halofsky, R.P. Neilson, and T.L. Morelli. 2011. Responding to
climate change in national forests: a guidebook for developing
adaptation options. USDA Forest Service General Technical
Report GTR-PNW-855.
Peterson, D.L., J.M. Vose, and T. Patel-Weynand. 2014. Climate
Change and United States Forests. Springer, Dordrecht, The
Netherlands.
Raymond, C.L., D.L. Peterson, and R.M. Rochefort. 2013. The
North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership: a science-management
collaboration for responding to climate change. Sustainability
5:136-159.
Raymond, C.L., D.L. Peterson, and R.M. Rochefort (eds.).
2014. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North
Cascades region. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report
PNW-GTR-892. Paci c Northwest Research Station, Portland,
OR.
Sample, V.A., J.E. Halofsky, and D.L. Peterson. 2013. US
strategy for forest management adaptation to climate change:
building a framework for decision making. Annals of Forest
Science DOI 10.1007/s13595-013-0288-6.
Vose, J., D.L. Peterson, and T. Patel-Weynand. 2012. Effects
of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a
comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. forest sector. USDA
Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870.
CIRMOUNT UPDATES
Celebrating Kelly Redmond
(1952-2016)
An important innovator and one of our foremost leaders
of mountain-climate science in general, and CIRMOUNT
speci cally, has passed. Kelly Redmond died Wednesday,
November 2, 2016, at his home in Reno, Nevada, 2½ years after
diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. Kelly was Regional Climatologist
and Deputy Director of the Western Regional Climate Center,
and Research Professor in Climatology at the Desert Research
Institute, Reno, Nevada. Foremost to CIRMOUNT circles,
Kelly was a mountain-climate scientist, fascinated by the
challenges and importance of understanding climate processes
and trends in complex topography. In the early 2000s, Kelly
and a handful of other climate-scientists of the West (including
Dan Cayan, Mike Dettinger, Henry Diaz, Malcolm Hughes) and
mountain ecologists (including Dan Fagre, Lisa Graumlich, Greg
Greenwood, Connie Millar, Nate Stephenson, Tom Swetnam)
worked together to develop an informal network that would bring
together mountain scientists of diverse disciplines to focus on
climate and climate effects on ecosystems. Thus CIRMOUNT
was born, and with it, CIRMOUNT’s agship effort, the now-
biennial MtnClim climate conferences.
Kelly had been a devoted participant to the PACLIM workshops,
which focus on climate science of the Paci c Ocean and the
West, attending and presenting annually since the rst meeting
in 1983. Kelly loved the informality, interdisciplinary nature,
high-quality and current science, small group size, and retreat-
environment that characterizes PACLIM. He championed a
parallel event focused on mountain-climate issues for mountain
scientists and those interested in climate-related management
and policy of mountain regions. At both PACLIM and MtnClim,
Kelly became the regular and much-anticipated opening keynote
speaker, during which he would present a synthesis of climate
events across western North America since the last meeting of
the group. In CIRMOUNT’s early years Kelly led many efforts
to promote CIRMOUNT, for instance, shepherding as PI the
submission of a research coordination network proposal to the
National Science Foundation (which was rejected, with the
justi cation that CIRMOUNT was already too coordinated!).
Even in his last year, worn down by illness, Kelly was advocating
CIRMOUNT efforts, practicing and promoting mountain-climate
monitoring, and actively consulting and collaborating with
national park managers and other resource managers concerned
with mountain issues. Those of us who attended MtnClim 2016,
held in mid-October in Leavenworth, WA just weeks before
he passed, were blessed to have Kelly once again in our midst
– Elder of the clan – presenting his regular kick-off lecture,
discussing the latest science over posters and beers, making
newcomers feel welcome, admiring the magical mountain beauty
of the Cascades, and talking late into the evenings with old
friends.
Kelly grew up in beautiful Gallatin Valley of southwest
Montana in Belgrade, next to the Bozeman Airport, where his
father worked for the FAA for 27 years as a Flight Service
Specialist. His father also recorded the of cial weather records
for the Bozeman airport during this time, and passed his love
of mountain weather and challenges to young Kelly. From his
Montana home, surrounded by mountains on every horizon,
Kelly spent many days hiking with his four brothers and parents.
Those early hiking days in uenced his interest in mountain
climate, observing at an early age that “mountains make their
own weather” and that “mountain weather could be so different
from that out in the middle of the valley”. Kelly earned a B.S.
in Physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
(1974), and M.S. and Ph.D.in Meteorology from the University
of Wisconsin-Madison (1977 and 1982). Before moving to DRI,
Kelly was Assistant- and then State Climatologist of Oregon for
seven years. In this position, Kelly had ample opportunity to
develop and hone what became his remarkable talent and passion
for communicating climate information to the layman, and to
resource-management and policy audiences. In his words, “I had
about 35,000 one-on-one conversations with people from every
walk of life about nearly every facet of climate. Maybe 10-20 of
these conversations were about climate change; the large majority
was just about the ongoing effects of climate variability.” Kelly
was always engaged and enthusiastic about new scienti c
Kelly on Hardscrabble Mountain, Bridger Mountains, Montana, 2013
48 Mountain Views • December 2016
ndings and methods but merciless about holding every one up to
the clarifying light of real-world observations and usefulness. His
insistence on real-world usefulness, derived from his thousands
of conversations with real people, set the standard for us all.
For his wide-reaching climate-science impact, Kelly was
recognized as Fellow of the American Meteorological Society
in 2009, and earned many professional awards for his work,
a number of which are related in comments and links from
colleagues below. His CIRMOUNT colleagues were particularly
proud that Kelly was nominated by the American Geophysical
Union as the annual 2014 awardee of the Tyndall History of
Global Environmental Change Lecturer (John Tyndall being
not just a climate scientist but also a mountaineer and lover
of mountains). Kelly was selected as the Tyndall Lecturer in
recognition of his outstanding contributions to understanding
of global environmental change, and he delivered his lecture
during the annual Fall AGU meeting on December 18, 2014 (link
to video below). The lecture was vintage Kelly—informative,
humorous and insightful—and is well worth viewing.
Kelly’s wide interests and voracious reading habits roved to
topics far beyond climates and mountains, and he was fond of
discussing, and then speculating, on problems of metaphysical
and cosmic dimensions. There seemed to be no topic for which
he didn’t have appetite and knowledge. In his words, “My basic
af iction is an interest in everything, something that Richard
Feynmann called ‘the pleasure of nding things out.’ I am
interested in every part of Nature.”
More than anything, Kelly’s friends loved his wit, warmth,
and easy, gregarious nature. Kelly welcomed everyone who
came within his wake into earnest conversation, and he was
interested in learning from each person’s experiences and
perspectives. Many students spoke of how he drew them into
his circle, put them at ease, and introduced them to important
opportunities. Old friends invariably mention late night emails
and phone conversations—wandering from the initial cause for
communication onto topics as big as the universe. From PACLIM
and MtnClim weather roundup talks to those easy one-on-one
chats, our world is greatly diminished by Kelly’s absence.
A memorial service for Dr. Kelly Redmond will be held on
Friday, January 13, 2017 at 2:00 pm in Reno, Nevada. Details and
RSVP here: https://www.dri.edu/newsroom/news-releases/5431-
in-memorial-dr-kelly-redmond. Information about donations to
the Kelly Redmond Memorial Fund may be found at the same
link.
“In fond memory of Kelly Redmond” by John Fleck, Inkstain,
Nov. 4, 2016: http://www.inkstain.net/ eck/2016/11/fond-
memory-kelly-redmond/
“Nevada climate change expert Redmond remembered as expert
communicator” by Henry Bean, Nevada Review Journal, Nov.
4, 2016: http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-
government/nevada/nevada-climate-change-expert-redmond-
remembered-expert
Kelly’s Tyndall Lecture AGU, 2014
video: https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=SjSwPMvBsCM
“RevkinInterview”A video interview in
August 2016 with Kelly Redmond by Andy
Revkin, Pace University Researcher and dot.
earth blog editor; posted with permission
from Andy Revkin, Nov. 2016: http://
drive.google.com/ le/d/0B88iFXWgVKt-
YkhQSW9yZ3o0UEk/view?usp=sharing
Introduction to Kelly’s Talk for the Applied Climatology Award,
August 2008 http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/publications/pdf/
IntroductionAppliedClimAward_Aug2008.pdf
Kelly’s Talk when receiving the Applied Climatology Award,
August 2008 http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/publications/pdf/
KellysPresentationForAppliedClimAward_Aug2008.pdf
Kelly in his DRI of ce, by Phil Pasteris.
CELEBRATING KELLY
49
Mountain Views • December 2016
In crisp autumn light, liquidambar
turning scarlet, bright blue sky,
I learned another colleague
has died.
I ran into him last year:
his wan smile, thinning hair.
Among the conference posters
we talked about the drought,
the blocking ridge of high pressure,
El Niño’s promise,
and the shocking pace of climate change.
Then he spoke of the crab in his pancreas,
and the chemo, how hard it was.
He was steadfast and cheerful
though we both knew the odds.
He would have loved this change of seasons:
the clear Washoe light,
Mount Rose frosted with new snow,
mares’ tails streaming in from the Paci c
and high over-head,
wild geese calling.
—Robert Coats, Hydroikos Ltd.
November 2016
RecollecƟ ons of Kelly from his CIRMOUNT Friends and Colleagues
Sunset over Mono Lake
Kelly Redmond, August 2014
REMEMBERING KELLY REDMOND
CELEBRATING KELLY
50 Mountain Views • December 2016
Martha Apple, Montana Tech
Kelly had a great in uence on many people. Just tonight I mentioned some of his sayings and quips to my friend who lives in Oregon,
and she is planning to tell other people. And so it goes, with his wise thoughts and eloquence traveling out into the future. Eloquence
seems like an overly fancy word to use, though, for someone who was so easy to be around and who had such a great sense of humor.
One time James and I saw Kelly on a corner in San Francisco (I think it was somewhere near Union Square and outside of that gallery
where they used to have the Chagall paintings). Anyway, we stopped to talk about Montana since he grew up in Bozeman and one of
his brothers went to MTech. He told us a great little story about stopping off in Butte to get new tires.
During his talk at MtnClim 2016, Kelly showed a picture of a Glory that he had taken from the airplane, showing the airplane’s
shadow and a small circular rainbow directly opposite of where he was sitting. He said something to the effect of, "There's my glory,
and I was sitting right there. Glories are always right across from you."
Jill Baron, U.S. Geological Survey
Leonard Cohen's Hallelujah is going constantly through my mind, and I am breaking into tears almost at random these days, so this
tribute to Kelly comes at a particularly low point.
I did not know Kelly well, being a relative newcomer to the MtnClim circle of warm and loving mountain people. I've never been
to a PACLIM meeting. Kelly didn't care; he welcomed me into his sphere anyway. In his wonderful matter-of-fact way—oh, Jill's
one of us now—he made me comfortably at home among so many eminent scientists with whom he had shared many more years of
camaraderie. We need to spread Kelly's warmth and quiet faith in people more than ever now. I will carry him in my heart.
Leonard Cohen, Hallelujah: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrLk4vdY28Q
Erik Beever, U.S. Geological Survey
Although I have known Kelly for the better part of two decades (having done my Ph.D. and rst postdoctoral research in Reno, where
Kelly was based at DRI), I have had the pleasure of getting to know Kelly on a more-personal level in the past several years as well.
Things that make me smile as I remember Kelly include his ability to literally (not guratively) t over 120 slides in a 25-minute
presentation (with only a handful of pictures), yet still not feel like too much information was being shoved down the audience's throat
or that the presentation was rushed. I also loved his ability to weave together different scales of examples to illustrate any given point,
from remarkable temperature gradients across a single valley in western Nevada that were quanti ed with sensor arrays, all the way to
synoptic patterns across the entire West that spanned several decades.
Kelly’s Glory
CELEBRATING KELLY
51
Mountain Views • December 2016
Kelly and his colleagues catalyzed work that proved an invaluable inventory for many of the U.S. national park units. I worked for
2.5 years in the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program, and I saw rst-hand that a lot of the analyses, approaches, suggestions,
syntheses, and interpretations not only were hugely instrumental in shaping the initial direction of climate and weather monitoring in
NPS, but the legacy of that in uence can still be pervasively seen across the Nation, even today.
I loved the pensive nature of Kelly, and how he would respond to questions not only in person but also over email. Scienti cally,
Kelly had a playful, gentle, and tireless sense of curiosity that sparked him to accomplish many great things.
We are a more depauperate community without him.
Andy Bunn, Western Washington University
I had the great pleasure of being able to be present for what turned out to be Kelly's nal scienti c presentation. As one of the
organizers of the 2016 MtnClim conference I had worked to bring Kelly in for his traditional talk reviewing the state of mountain
weather in the west. I knew Kelly was frail and tried to give him an easy out if he wasn't feeling well enough to travel. But of course,
he was having none of it. He arrived just in time for his talk and had spent the day driving around the east side of the Cascades taking
pictures and being the keen observer of the world that he was. Towards the end of the meeting I was chatting with a contingent of folks
from the Northwest Indian College who were new to MtnClim. Kelly had gone out of his way to have lunch with them and welcome
them to the conference. One of the students remarked to me that Kelly was clearly an important elder in our community. He was. We
all knew it. I hope that Kelly knew it. I'll miss him as a scienti c mentor but mourn the loss of Kelly as an elder for our community
even more.
Hardscrabble Peak, July 2013, by Kelly Redmond
CELEBRATING KELLY
52 Mountain Views • December 2016
Dan Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Kelly loved atmospheric measurements and unraveling the structure and processes they revealed. Of course he dealt with an enormous
bundle of these in his of ce life, but he also carried this to a very personal level. Years ago he introduced me to the thermometer he
had tethered to a readout on the dash of his Volvo (which, though more than 10 years more aged, I think is still parked in his garage).
After retrieving me from the Reno Airport, he proudly demonstrated this device, which he hung out his window as drove through
the surface streets. He operated this as a pro ler, his brain being the recorder. On our drive to his house it quickly became clear that
this was a survey across the hilly terrain that he did routinely to the point that he could enthusiastically predict how much change the
nighttime layered atmosphere would present as we descended the next valley.
Kelly t very well the position he occupied (invented, I guess) at Western Regional Climate Center, which I will call “Chief Climate
Scientist for the Western U.S”. This gave him license to poke into a vast universe of interesting problems. His personal statement
says that he “maintains an interest in all facets of climate and climate behavior,” which indeed was true. I have to confess that,
being a co-investigator on various projects, I sometimes got a bit frustrated with Kelly’s less-than-straight line trajectory in achieving
deliverables. But this was part of the Kelly-package, which was, in the end, a great virtue, because of the experience he brought from
high level issues he contributed to and real-time monitored, and the impeccable standards he maintained.
Kelly speaking at MtnClim 2016, by Imtiaz Rangwala
Link to Kelly’s MtnClim 2016 presentation: http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/publications/pdf/KellyMtnClim2016.pdf
CELEBRATING KELLY
53
Mountain Views • December 2016
The Western landscape was one his intense fascinations. He tromped and catalogued weather stations across many of the National
Parks in the West, and he personally surveyed and located several of the NOAA Climate Reference Network station sites. This on-
the-ground knowledge made him a really effective advocate for better observations and for improved regional modeling. In attending
the astounding number of meetings and conferences he was invited to, he made a lot of ights, and he always took a window seat.
Here’s how he spent his air time—
From: Drought Monitor Discussion Group [DROUGHT@LISTSERV.UNL.EDU] on behalf of Kelly Redmond
[Kelly.Redmond@DRI.EDU]
Sent: Saturday, February 21, 2015 10:55 PM
To: DROUGHT@LISTSERV.UNL.EDU
Subject: [DROUGHT] a few photos
“Took a couple hundred photos coming and going to Boise.
A lot of people y over the Great Basin and think it's just a big wasteland.
Some of us nd it totally fascinating. And it wears drought on its sleeve.”
7478 Lake Mead, Overton Arm, it's helpful if boat ramps reach the marina
7443 old droughts and shorelines of Lake Bonneville, looking east into Utah
7479 drought outline on Lake Mead, still dropping, 73 % of normal in ow now expected
7485 Lake Mead, Boulder Dam, electricity from water, new bridge, Black Canyon
7491 Lake Mead bathtub rings.”
Kelly would be classi ed as a Type 10 Workaholic, but he had so much fun that I’m sure to him it wasn’t work, just part of his
continuing voyage of discovery. I think he saved phone calls until after he’d dealt with the mountain of emails, press queries and
of ce interactions he maintained. Often, at the very end of an already long day my phone would ring and there would be Kelly and
we’d be off on an hour conversation, inevitably off-topic, but always a delight. How I’ll miss those and that gentle inquisitive soul!
Airborne view of the White Mountains and Long Valley, CA, December, 2013, by Kelly Redmond
CELEBRATING KELLY
54 Mountain Views • December 2016
Chris Daly, Oregon State University
Kelly ranks as one of the top three most in uential people in my professional career. He achieved that status by helping to promote
my early work within the larger community, providing a steady and encouraging presence, contributing novel (and sometimes
hilarious) ideas, and perhaps most importantly, contributing his time and energy to help out when things looked bleakest. I know that
I am not alone, which makes his in uence all the more remarkable. At meetings and conferences, I would watch Kelly go over to the
young participants to introduce himself, and ask really great questions about their work. Everyone was important and worthy. I will
strive to honor Kelly’s legacy by trying to do more of that myself. Of course, this is in addition to working through the list of great
things he thought I should be doing! That will certainly keep Kelly in my thoughts for many years to come. Rest easy, my friend.
Mike Dettinger, U.S. Geological Survey
For the community, Kelly was the ultimate team player and philosopher scientist. And it is sure going to be a lot less fun out there
without Kelly at the dais.
On a more person-to-person basis, Kelly and I have been working together regularly since the late 1990s. I think we worked well
together, and certainly he always always made it fun, but at some level we were always a bit wary of each other: I tend to be a loose
cannon and Kelly always retained that careful state-climatologist thing. As recently as last fall, we put together a public forum in
Carson City to talk about what the Great El Niño of 2016 was going to mean…Kelly kind of called that one, arguing “who really
knows?” Who indeed? The upshot for me is that Kelly’s passing means another "professional friend” gone and that maybe its time
to internalize his care and caution as best I will remember it. And again a lot of the fun will be gone from meetings from now on. I’ll
miss him.
I think that the “pull quote” from Kelly that is most cited in the literature and that will last longest into the future may be from his
“Depiction of Drought” commentary in BAMS in 2002, wherein he wrote “What is meant by drought? Early de nitions focused on
purely meteorolgocal or hydrological causes…[but] through time I have come to favor a simple de nition; that is, insuf cient water to
meet needs.” So simple and yet really game changing, much cited, and sure to stand the test of time. I see it mentioned in talks and in
articles all the time.
Kelly’s BAMS article on drought is here: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477%282002%29083%3C1143%3ATDO
DAC%3E2.3.CO%3B2
Cover slide from Kelly’s presentation at CNAP (courtesy of Anne Steine)
PDF of Kelly’s presentation here: http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/publications/pdf/AFewThingsPickedUpAlongtheWay.pdf.
CELEBRATING KELLY
55
Mountain Views • December 2016
Henry Diaz, emeritus NOAA
If my memory serves me, I rst met Kelly at one of the earlier PACLIM meetings—likely in the late 1980s. Since then, our paths
crossed many times, at numerous American Meteorological Society conferences, at the annual AGU conferences in San Francisco, and
many, many workshops all around the country. Kelly kept his travels mostly within the con nes of the USA, and he travelled quite
frequently. When he passed away recently I re ected on my times and experiences with him and our many friends and colleagues. One
thing that always struck me as I now look back on our various peregrinations is the realization that whenever we were together during
those late afternoon and evening social gatherings, it was clear how Kelly enjoyed the camaraderie, the scienti c, political and cultural
discussions, and the personal feedback and learning from those groups of people that his travels afforded him.
We became an extended family, and we shared personal news and plans for the future. And when we got together again at some later
time, we would bring each other up to date on the things—personal and professional—that had happened to us in the interim.
I will miss Kelly’s friendship and his unique talents as a great science communicator and message taker to the greater community of
fellow citizens.
Deanna Dulen, National Park Service
Writing from Bhutan:
Dear Kelly's spirit soared to lofty heights, embracing the wisdom of a sage and knowledge of a scholar, all of which he shared
with colleagues, and all with a twinkle in his eye. I dearly appreciated how, during our interagency group developing management
implications of climate refugia, he said with his wry wit that we most certainly need a refugium for climate scientists.
Kelly also wrapped scienti c complex physics into clear concepts like the climate refugium concept for Devils Postpile National
Monument along the San Joaquin River corridor and all the moisture laden rain and snow releasing on west wall of Mammoth
Mountain to make the right combination of topography, geology, wetland, river, and shade, with no known analog.
Thank you Kelly, and may your spirit continue to soar. Namaste
Kelly enjoying friends at his last MtnClim conference, October 2016, in Leavenworth, WA,
with Imtiaz Rangwala (left) and Sudeep Chandra (center). Photo by Jill Baron.
CELEBRATING KELLY
56 Mountain Views • December 2016
Sasha Gershunov, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
I will miss Kelly's intrepid philosophical attitude and optimism about humanity and love for Life and his thirst for knowledge in many
diverse elds that he so generously shared. Every conversation with Kelly was a priceless gem, especially the late-night ones he loved
so much, when the most essential questions of human existence percolated up to the surface. He truly stood out among us all unique
human beings.
Jessica Lundquist, University of Washington
My favorite memories of Kelly are of how he always monitored meteorology during his travels to any meeting. He would begin with,
"So, I had my thermometer on my car as I was driving on I-80 this morning, and as I went over the pass from Reno, it got cooler at
exactly 4,000 feet and got warmer suddenly when I passed an elevation of 5,000 feet, but when I descended on the other side, there
was no such cold pocket..." and he would rattle off exact temperatures and elevations and patterns with such precision that I was
always seriously concerned that he was not watching the road at all and was going to crash his car. The same observations could be
seen in the photos out his airplane window that accompanied every weather year in review.
In the eld, Kelly taught me how to site weather stations—make sure you're not next to a building or in the shade of a tree, try to nd
a nice big clearing, not too windy if measuring precip, but at the very top of a mountain if you only want temperature and wind.
In the breaks between meetings, Kelly taught me what it meant to be a good citizen scientist, telling me, "No matter what, you have
to keep working to explain your science to everyday people. It's hard to do, but it's the most important thing we can do. We have to
make sure people understand what we're doing and why it matters."
And his book recommendations were always spot on -- I still haven't nished the list from the Tyndall lecture.
He loved the weather in the mountains, and he loved people, and I really appreciate having Kelly as a role model from graduate school
onwards.
"Greetings, earthlings," from the east end of the Extraterrestrial Highway, Nevada Route 375, near Hiko Nevada, by Kelly Redmond.
CELEBRATING KELLY
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Mountain Views • December 2016
Bryan Mark, The Ohio State University
I'm pleased to share a few words; the mere moments I had with Kelly were poignant. He so very quickly impressed me as a man of
integrity and kindness.
I was fortunate to have met Kelly just before his death, while attending the MtnClim 2016 meeting in Leavenworth, WA, in October
2016. I had only two conversations with him, and I was unaware of his condition. But in the midst of our discussion, I related that I
was taking over the role of State Climatologist for Ohio. He took great interest, and followed up with personal re ections on the job.
His advice was direct and simple, and bears sharing here: "be patient." He assured me that I would nd moments to voice how climate
is important, and it will make a difference, but it can often seem to be a dif cult and uncertain path. The prophetic truth of that is only
beginning to become clear given the uncertain times we live through. I left inspired and encouraged. I've subsequently learned how
Kelly was a valued mentor for my former graduate student, Karin Bumbaco, who is now Assistant State Climatologist of Washington.
With my sincere gratitude for Kelly's life, and condolences to all.
Bruce McGurk, McGurk Hydrologic
As the organizer of the Yosemite Hydroclimate meeting, I solicit presentations from respected and favorite researchers to speak at
the annual meeting. Kelly Redmond represented both of those attributes: everyone looked forward to hearing his musings on the
past winter, and what the new water year would bring. Kelly had a special place in the lineup because he was part of the group of
scientists who started these annual meetings in the Park in 2002. He had been to every meeting, and always brought his special
brand of thoughtful presentation and insightful questions for the other attendees. His talks were full of colorful graphics from the
Drought Tracker, El Niño/SOI status and trends, precipitation extremes, trends in wintertime minimum temperatures, and more. He
could interpret those complex patterns and issues, and make everyone feel like they understood what was going on. And just for fun,
he would then add a plot of the Lake Tahoe water level and how it had declined during the drought and how long it had been below
the rim. His musings on the coming winter were often preceded by a cartoon featuring a fortune teller’s shop with a sign such as
“Madame Olga’s Stochastic Scenarios.” Kelly would smile as people laughed, but would then marshal all the bits of evidence and
weave them into a great forecast. Kelly was an amazing scientist, a terri c communicator, and a delight to sip beers with at the bar
when the meeting was over. I was lucky for the time I got to spend with him, and miss him very much.
First Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop, 2002, Yosemite Valley. Photo from Bruce McGurk.
CELEBRATING KELLY
58 Mountain Views • December 2016
Connie Millar, USDA Forest Service
Trying to remember when I rst met Kelly, I had been distraught in not being able to nd that memory. My oldest mental images are
of times when we were already close friends. In reading stories about Kelly, I realize that one of those memories surely was my rst
acquaintance: it is just like Kelly to make everyone feel like an old friend from the start. I respected Kelly for his science, capacity to
communicate climate information clearly, and dedication to his work; I loved Kelly for so much more. Trained as a forest geneticist
and evolutionary biologist, when I rst ventured to learn about climate, I had absolutely no background that would provide a basis
for interacting with climate scientists. Add to that a big dose of personal insecurity, my rst participation in a PACLIM meeting in
1994 (when these were held on Santa Catalina Island, CA) was lled with trepidation. This, I think, is where I met Kelly, and one of
those “old-friend” memories is from the boat ride back to the mainland. With ocean spray ying, we huddled on the deck and talked
about topics metaphysical and only vaguely related to credible science. Of course Kelly was extremely widely read, so he had basis
for his conjectures; he let me ramble on with my wild speculations, which were based on little known evidence. From there on, all our
interactions had this comfy and easy manner, lled with awe at the beauty and wonder of Planet Earth and Beyond.
Kelly clearly loved his homelands of Montana, and spoke often and fondly of the mountains, the community, life in his early days
in that region, his beloved parents and brothers, and, more recently, the nieces and nephews of his clan who meant so much to him. I
think his heart was grounded in Montana, even though, Wallace-Stegner-like, he embraced every nook and cranny of the West through
which—or over which—he traveled. In that I am far more parochial and see little beyond the Great Basin, I reveled to talk with Kelly
of the hidden mountains ranges, isolated tree populations, and American pika sites I had explored in the Great Basin. Kelly would
listen intently to my stories of “new places”. Then he would add his own comment on a canyon or peak nearby that he had visited,
and there would come pictures of these as well.
I visited Kelly at Renown Hospital in Reno in the days following his rst surgery in 2014. Although it was clear that his cancer was
terribly serious with little hope for long-term treatment, Kelly was calm and circumspective, relaying the medical details from his
doctors, and the near-term plans to hold the cancer at bay. Soon, however, the conversation left the bedside, and starting roaming
Kelly-esque to big topics: speculative, philosophical, existential. I was comforted by Kelly’s perspective and capacity to talk as we
always did, even with the terrifying news in his lap.
While I am more than a little embarrassed to confess, I secretly harbored the notion that I was special to Kelly. As I talk to friends and
colleagues, I realize that many felt this way. Now I see the beautiful truth that we all were special to Kelly, each in our own way, just
as he was special to each and every one of us.
Madame Olga’s scenarios in Kelly’s slide show.
“So Far So Good”, another of Kelly’s lighter moments from one of his Yosemite
HC talk. Both images sent by Bruce McGurk.
CELEBRATING KELLY
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Mountain Views • December 2016
Toni Lyn Morelli, DOI Northeast Climate Science Center
Although I knew him half as well as most of you, I'm grateful for the calm, friendly, and wise man that I got to know over the last 7
years, and consider myself lucky to have had those times.
I also had the experience of both learning from him and butting heads (a little) with him on scienti c matters, for which I consider
myself very lucky.
In this moment of national and scienti c upheaval that was left after Election Day, I nd myself playing the game “What Would Kelly
Say?” and wishing that I didn't have to guess.
—Toni Lyn, burgeoning climate scientist, inspired by Kelly and all of you to keep giving it my all
For you, dear Kelly: a view from an American pika’s front porch of the Sierra Nevada crest from near Rickey Peak
on the day before Thanksgiving 2016, with love from Connie.
CELEBRATING KELLY
60 Mountain Views • December 2016
Phil Pasteris, Global Water Resources, CH2M Hill
I rst met Kelly in the early 1990s when he made a presentation at the local AMS chapter meeting in Portland. As usual, Kelly was
fully prepared with a stack of color overheads containing graphs, tables and all manner of images to illustrate the climate of Oregon
and the Paci c Northwest. This could have been intensely boring to a mixed audience, but Kelly worked his story telling magic and
after just a few minutes had their undivided attention. Kelly made climate, hydrology and meteorology come alive and relevant to all
he met. He did that because he listened before he talked.
When I transferred from NOAA NW River Forecast Center to the SCS Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting Program in
July 1990, Kelly was right there in Reno to help me when I visited. He had just moved from Corvallis where he was the State
Climatologist to the Western Region Climate Center. He and I immediately hit it off. He knew I had plenty to learn and suggested
that I attend the American Association of State Climatologists annual meeting in Atlantic City, NJ that next week. Wow! Talk about
jumping into the deep end of the pool. With Kelly’s help I got to meet the “climate gang” and was given 10 minutes to outline some
concepts to create a national climate service. A regional and national climate service was something Kelly had in mind too and the
saga began.
Kelly’s work with Greg McCurdy and Dick Reinhardt at the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) resulted in a regional climate
service making data and applications available to process and interpret climate data. The timing was right because the Internet was
in its infancy and that a wider audience was possible to ful ll the WRCC mission. This concept aligned precisely with the USDA
concept for a nationwide climate service for all USDA agencies. Kelly threw his full support into creating a Uni ed Climate Access
Network (UCAN), now the Applied Climate Information System (ACIS). As part of the UCAN Design Team, Kelly gladly shared
all his knowledge gained from the WRCC system to ensure UCAN provided data processing methods that were scienti cally correct.
The rest is history. ACIS is now fully integrated with National Weather Service webpages and provides meteorologists with the
historical context for climate events nationwide with NOWData.
Kelly stayed in touch with the Oregon State crew. Chris Daly and George Taylor were cooking up a way to map climate nationwide.
The existing maps of the West were a hodge-podge created by a variety of entities. The contours never matched at the borders and
the period of record used for the analysis never matched either. Kelly threw his full support behind the PRISM project and hosted a
Phil Pasteris and Kelly, by Rosemary Pasteris
CELEBRATING KELLY
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Mountain Views • December 2016
special State Climatologist forum in Reno to get expert comments to improve the PRISM process. That was the turning point for the
project and Kelly was very pleased that the forum was a success. Input from the State Climatologists and others resulted in a suite
of state climate maps that were congruent in period analyzed and edge-matched at the borders. Kelly’s vision to support the process
resulted in the WestMap – Climate Analysis Toolbox, which provides a full suite of maps and time series information.
Kelly’s contribution to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) once again was critical to its success. He
provided the necessary perspective to put the complexities of drought into both scienti c and human terms. He worked closely with
all of the NIDIS cooperators to ensure that they were all heard and the process kept on track. His weekly comments to the Drought
Monitor team were more often than not written in a style of an author Kelly studied and loved - Mark Twain. Kelly’s “Demise of an
orphaned rain drop” will be published in a separate article.
Kelly and I talked for hours on the phone and when we attended conferences. I don’t know of a kinder person who ever roamed the
planet. Being half Italian, I would get excited about something that didn’t happen the way I hoped it would. We would talk it out
together and Kelly always provide the opposing perspective that would settle me down. Rosemary and I loved to visit Reno and Lake
Tahoe. We always tried to track Kelly down and take him to dinner. Bertha Miranda’s Mexican restaurant was one of his favorites
and he loved to listen to what we doing with our life and with our kids, Julie and Karri. Kelly and Karri shared an interest in Mark
Twain and would exchange e-mails on some of this writings and observations.
News of Kelly’s aliment caught me cold. I thought that if anyone could beat a bad set of dice, it would be Kelly. On the other hand,
Kelly knew the diagnosis and probabilities. He decided to move on with what he did best, climate, and live the life he had left to
spread his knowledge to as many as he could. Kelly had always met a deadline for a paper or presentation, but this was something he
could not control and I am sure he was dismayed that he had not accomplished all he set out to do.
Kelly was in Portland in August 2016 to watch his brothers ride bikes in the annual Bridge Pedal, something he had participated in
over the years. I met up with him and we walked the parkway near the Willamette River. His sense of humor was still there, as dry as
a D6 drought. We knew that this might be our last time together on the planet, but did not dwell on the topic. I was in Joliet, IL when
Kelly passed. I left him a voicemail message that we would meet again and that I loved him. That was the best I could do.
I recently attended a concert and “The Grand Canyon Suite” by Ferde Grofe was performed. If there was a piece of music that could
be identi ed with Kelly, that is it. The piece has wonderful textures the ve movements – Sunrise, Painted Desert, On the Trail,
Sunset, and Cloudburst. Kelly played the trumpet in high school and I play the clarinet so we shared an interest in music. I think of
Kelly whenever I hear this piece. Kelly understood the textures and variety of the Western climate like no other person.
Mark Twain once asked “to acquire, by courtesy of the press, access to my standing obituaries, with the privilege - if this is not
asking too much - of editing, not their Facts, but their Verdicts. This, not for present pro t, further than as concerns my family, but
as a favorable in uence usable on the Other Side, where there are some who are not friendly to me.” He offered to correct them,
“replacing them with clauses of more judicious character.”
Kelly, you had nothing to fear from the Other Side. Your many friends that remain on this earth will testify to your sel ess dedication
to your craft. You have amassed and disseminated a storehouse of climate knowledge that will bene t generations to come. We will
miss you.
Rest in peace my dear friend.
“I do not fear death. I had been dead for billions and billions of years before I was born, and had not suffered the slightest
inconvenience from it.” – Mark Twain
CELEBRATING KELLY
62 Mountain Views • December 2016
Dave Peterson, USDA Forest Service
I didn't have a lot of interaction with Kelly over the years, but we did coauthor one paper, so I'll base my comments on my experience
with that:
In the 1990s, we developed a reconstruction of the lake level of Crater Lake, which is not only a gigantic "rain gauge" (no inlets or
outlets), but has an unusually long record of lake-level measurements. We were well along with the analysis when Kelly joined the
project at the recommendation of a colleague at Oregon State University, where Kelly worked at that time. This was the rst time that
I had worked with him, and suf ce it to say that he kept our feet to the re on statistical aspects of the study. He had a gentle way of
telling us that some of our early inferences were incorrect, without making us feel like idiots. And of course the nal analysis was
much improved by his advice. I'm proud to say that I published a paper with Kelly Redmond:
Peterson, D.L., D.G. Silsbee, and K.T. Redmond. 1999. Long-term hydrological patterns at Crater Lake, Oregon. Northwest Science
138:121-130.
Roger Pulwarty, NOAA
(Extracts from letters that Roger has written about Kelly prior to his death): Dr. Redmond has been a fundamental contributor to
and producer of innovative research in the eld of climate variability and change, and their impacts in the Western United States.
He has also been an intellectual stalwart in the effort to sustain climate monitoring and to confront and improve models through the
development of stronger data records.
Dr. Redmond is exceptional for the quality of his publications and his dedication to ensuring that research is not done in a vacuum
but informs choices made for the public good. Such is Dr. Redmond’s pro ciency and expertise in the area of climate research that he
is widely-referred, by academic researchers, natural resources managers, and policy-makers at a variety of levels across the Western
U.S., as “the Climate Ambassador of the West”.
Kelly in his of ce at the Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, by Phil Pasteris.
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Mountain Views • December 2016
Dr. Redmond’s is a voracious, yet critical, consumer of new ideas in communication and the use of science for decision-making. His
enthusiasm and his desire for rigor are infectious to all around him. He will continue to stand as an inspiration to many, including
young innovative thinkers with a modern view of use-inspired research in eld of the physical and environmental sciences, especially
climate.
Dr. Redmond stands above others and he has led the way in developing pathways that have then been adopted by Federal and State
agencies, private sector interests, and across the academic community. He has always been a willing and gracious collaborator,
embodying the increasing recognition that research-based solutions to complex environmental problems exceed the capabilities of any
single researcher, or the purview of any single discipline.
Email forwarded by Roger from Jim Angel (State Climatologist, Champaign, IL):
“Of the millions of emails I’ve read over the years, this one written by Kelly Redmond to the Drought Monitor in September
2001 is by far my favorite. So much so that I kept it in my desk over the years to take out and read. I retyped this from the paper
copy this morning and had a little trouble with watery eyes - must be those seasonal allergies. Enjoy …
“Our ticker for the Water Year is still 2.04 inches, and not counting. Sure is dry. Can’t even keep up with Death Valley, which in
the same time had 2.46 inches, and now has parrots and orchids and coconuts and cantaloupes, draped in a smothering blanket of
kudzu.
We had 0.00001 inches (e.g., a trace) in August. The drop that fell, August 8th, was reportedly about 0.6 mm in diameter,
striking the gage with a resounding “plink” at about 3 degrees from vertical. Like comets, all our drops are named after their
discoverer, so this one was known as Raindrop Dapm. Athletic and educated, but sensitive and shy, it was described as “a bit
of a loner,” grew up in a good neighborhood but kicked out by its parents when it couldn’t carry its own weight. When the
medics arrived, the badly injured droplet was undergoing dehydration and heat stroke; despite mouth to mouth resuscitation, all
hope soon evaporated. The drop was survived by no ancestors or descendants. Cremation occurred at death, and its molecules
scattered to the four winds. One was seen near Kentucky just the other day.”
Kelly at Lake Tahoe, August 2016, by Imtiaz Rangwala
Imtiaz Rangwala, NOAA
Knowing Kelly is to reaf rm the basic goodness and beauty
that life has in store for us. When I rst met Kelly as a shy and
wary graduate student, I was deeply struck by the amazing
openness and attention I received from him. And that I received
time and time again, and all those who were fortunate enough
to cross path with him. No wonder that he was the persona par
excellence when it came to the vocation of climate services.
He demonstrated better than anyone I know the importance of
listening and respectfully receiving the viewpoint from the other
side. And, then there was the deep wisdom and humor that ever
oozed out of him. It pains me deeply that I will not have the joy
of his company anymore, and this loss will only grow with time.
I am a different person now because I once ran into one Kelly
Redmond.
CELEBRATING KELLY
64 Mountain Views • December 2016
Nate Stephenson, U.S. Geological Survey
Here are two from emails I have from Kelly to share, the rst written to me:
3/16/14 “Hey Nate, Thanks for the thoughtful note, appreciate that very much. Am doing ok, just mild to moderate pain these days,
really helps to have so many brothers and a lot of friends who have been wonderful. There's still another ring or two to add to this tree.
Now in between the initial operation and the chemo treatments.
Have had a chance to nally see a day go by at its natural astronomical pace. Kind of a treat.
More later. Thanks a lot. -Kelly”
The second is an excerpt from an email to some of us here in the southern Sierra Nevada about our attempts to understand recent
climate and its trends. It is Kelly at his best, talking about the efforts of us frail humans to understand something as unfathomably
complex as the climate system:
1/22/14 “So it’s like a case of uncertainty multiplied by uncertainty, uncertainty squared. Amidst all this noisy stochastic behavior,
actually what is somewhat amazing and gratifying to my little speck of a mind is that we are still able to nevertheless discern some
elements of regularity in system behavior. Nature is tossing us enough tantalizing crumbs that we succumb to our curiosity and keep
looking for more. And though the previous might come off as somewhat pessimistic, I think there are good reasons to think we will
keep nding better crumbs. And some of those crumbs will be useful.”
Scotty Strachan, University of Nevada, Reno
Kelly Redmond represented a kind of person and scientist that is altogether uncommon, combining a keen inquisitive nature with
great stability and even keel. Sure, he possessed the ability to wander a sinuous conversational path or presentation as well as the next
curious intellectual, but always his next comment could snap back to the crux of the matter with razor-sharp agility. Kelly understood
the Big Picture in ways that few of us do, and knew how each of the little parts t into it. More importantly, he cared about all of them.
Kelly cared about young and old alike, and was not above investing his personal time in letting folk ramble on with crazy ideas. After
patiently listening, he would share a few of his own—fostering interchanges that were not bounded by scienti c or political dogma.
Kelly lived beyond such restrictions, and his personal and scienti c legacies re ect that transcendence. He maintained a sel ess vision
of people and the world that drove his actions, and while the rst abrupt hospital bed detour forced deep re ection and a certain re-
prioritization, he never wavered. In fact, Kelly's last years with us may have brought out the best Kelly. May all of us keep the example
of Kelly's grace with us now, as we continue the journey.
Tufa in dusk light, Mono Lake, by Kelly Redmond, August 2014.
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Mountain Views • December 2016
Bob Westfall, USDA Forest Service
I've observed that he engaged with everybody. That was especially evident at AGU and PACLIM poster sessions. Any comments he
made were straight to the point. I also appreciated his wry humor—he expressed that both in his presentations and in conversation.
He still showed that at MtnClim 2016, even though he was obviously in pain. Also—even though he held a very important and
prominent position, he carried himself as an ordinary guy.
Kelly Redmond, by Wally Woolfenden USDA Forest Service (retired), November 2016
CELEBRATING KELLY
66 Mountain Views • December 2016
Kelly’s poster award for the Applied Climatologist, by the American Meteorological Society, August 2008
CELEBRATING KELLY
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Mountain Views • December 2016
An Interview with Kelly Redmond; 2014 Awardee of the
Tyndall History of Global Environmental Change Lecturer,
American Geophysical Union
Kelly Redmond is Regional Climatologist and Deputy Director of the Western Regional Climate Center, and Research Professor
in climatology at the Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV. This summer he was selected as the “Tyndall History of Global
Environmental Change Lecturer” for the Fall 2014 meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. This award
recognizes the life and work of physicist (also mountaineer), John Tyndall, whose measurements in the late 1850s and early 1860s
veri ed the importance of the greenhouse effect that had been proposed by Fourier in 1824. Kelly was selected as Tyndall Lecturer
in recognition of his outstanding contributions to understanding of global environmental change. Speci cally, this lecture focuses
on the development of the science underlying global environmental change and provides a historical perspective. Kelly will
deliver his lecture during the December meeting (Thursday afternoon, Dec. 18), which will also be available as a webcast and
as an archived presentation on the AGU website. As a founder and key coordinator of CIRMOUNT we are tremendously excited
about this award, proud of Kelly, and offer our sincere congratulations. We look forward to his thoughts in the Tyndall lecture as
we do his insights on all things climatological during the many other lectures Kelly presents annually.
—Editor
Connie: Give us some personal history – what rst got you
interested in climate as a research focus and what motivated your
passion to communicate climate information and knowledge so
broadly?
Kelly: I grew up in Southwest Montana in Belgrade, next to the
Bozeman Airport, where my dad worked for the FAA for 27
years as a Flight Service Specialist. He also recorded the of cial
weather records for BZN airport during this time. In Montana,
everybody a) is interested in the weather, or b) is dead. My dad
had a lot of weather material from his training, and I memorized
it all. I remember well a 5th-grade science project on clouds. My
freshman advisor at MIT, Fred Sanders, was a highly respected
and motivated meteorologist. As a physics major (astrophysics,
which I still follow closely) I took some courses in meteorology,
and hung around the map room often. My undergraduate advisor,
Rainier Weiss, who along with Kip Thorne was one of the two
co-founders of today's LIGO project, told me that he considered
climate prediction to be among the hardest problems in science.
This just totally intrigued me, because I love hard problems.
Astronomers are often clouded out; rather than look *through*
the atmosphere, I decided to look *at* the atmosphere. Further,
I am interested in every part of Nature, and climate eventually
touches all other earth science disciplines, has deep connections
to fundamental processes, is strongly nonlinear, and is hugely
important to society, so this appeals very strongly to me. My
basic af iction is an interest in everything, something that
Richard Feynmann called "the pleasure of nding things out."
As state climatologist for Oregon for 7 years, I had about 35,000
one-on-one conversations with people from every walk of life
about nearly every facet of climate. Maybe 10-20 of these
conversations were about climate change; the large majority was
just about the ongoing effects of climate variability. I always
“The wind is a musical instrument with a certain range of tones,
beyond which in both directions we have an in nite silence”
—John Tyndall
CELEBRATING KELLY
Reprinted from Autumn 2014, Mountain Views.
68 Mountain Views • December 2016
received a lot of positive feedback from these encounters, and
spent more and more time giving talks and presentations, always
very well received, which provided further encouragement. Also,
I feel very strongly that society does not support science and
climate studies just so that we can indulge our personal passions
(although, it should for that reason as well), but so that it will
receive useful payback on its investment. Also, it is a wonderful
challenge to learn how to transfer intact a thought from one
mind to another. It helps greatly that the public has a direct and
intimate connection with climate and weather, a natural and
major advantage for our profession.
Connie: OK, great. Like John Tyndall, mountains are clearly
important in your work. In what ways do you nd mountain
climates – their process, patterns, and challenges -- so
compelling?
Kelly: I grew up in the beautiful Gallatin Valley, something I
would not trade for anything, surrounded by mountains on every
horizon, spent many days in them with my four brothers and my
mom and dad. I was fascinated by the way mountain weather
could be so different from that out in the middle of the valley.
Mountains make their own weather, and modify much of the
rest of weather. There are exceptionally sharp spatial gradients
in so many atmospheric and climatic properties, something not
widely appreciated by those who do not live, work, and play
in such surroundings. My job covers the 11 western states
and Alaska and Hawaii, with mountains galore and complex
topography a de ning property of that entire region. It's one of
many reasons why I really love this job. Throughout the West,
we are strongly affected by mountains, even if we do not directly
live in them. And there is the simple fact of how inspiring they
are. Meteorology becomes far more complex in such terrain,
and more dif cult to observe. We specialize in observations, and
mountain observations probably take 2-3 times, or more, effort
and resources to produce successful high quality measurements.
We also suffer from insuf cient density of long-term high quality
observations, because of the many dif culties involved.
Connie: What do you see as urgent problems to be tackled or
needs to be addressed in the near future in relation to our work
in mountain climates and ecosystems in order to make important
progress on societally critical issues of anthropogenic global
warming?
Kelly: We need to learn how mountain climates work,
fundamentally, in the absence of climate change. Climate change
is simply another source or type of variability. An important
issue is how large-scale patterns (global, continental) of
atmospheric variability translate to the small-scale realm (meters
to a few kilometers) in complex environments. Orographic
enhancement of precipitation is affected by topographic details,
wind patterns, vertical stability, and other subtle factors, a
subject about which we need to learn more. Elevation and
aspect effects on insect pests and pathogens are still in need of
further understanding. Mountains reach up and "grab" water
from the sky, and serve as reservoirs that meter this water out
over the warm season and maintain base ows for streams.
How will this function be affected by changes in temperature
and precipitation? A big challenge is to close the surface water
budget on scales of a kilometer or less. Especially important is
assigning better numbers to groundwater ows and reservoirs,
and better understanding the physical processes by which this is
accomplished.
Mountains were once regarded as largely unapproachable and
forbidding environments (e.g., read Mary Shelley's Frankenstein).
Improved physical, and now electronic, access has greatly
changed this attitude. Now, by contrast with the past, mountains
are increasingly being populated, with pushes to higher
elevations, and the wildland-urban interface, and the exurbs, are
leading to re and wildlife issues in places where formerly few
people lived. Climate change, and warming temperatures, may
act as a force driving people to higher and cooler elevations. For
much of human history, mountains were regarded as mysterious
and sacred places. In my own view, this latter distinction may
have decreased, even though (again, my view) we should be
regarding all of Nature, all biomes and climates and settings, as
sacred.
Kelly shares a light moment with Chris Daly at the recent MtnClim 2014
conference. Photo: Scotty Strachan.
CELEBRATING KELLY
69
Mountain Views • December 2016
Connie: How would you suggest CIRMOUNT scientists can
contribute best to these challenges?
Kelly: The MtnClim Conferences are one great tradition to keep
going. We might be ready for a next rendition of Mapping New
Terrain [CIRMOUNT’s early document], though many things in
that publication are still relevant and timely. Keep up a tradition
of interdisciplinary communication. Mountain Views Newsletter
is one of those forms of communications, and you all have given
an excellent start and example to that. Continue to advocate for
monitoring.
Connie: So what about the El Niño we hear about for winter
2014? Isn’t summer too early to be predicting ENSO? [I had
asked this question earlier this year to Kelly]
Kelly: As of this writing (early Nov 2014) a weak to moderate
El Niño still seems on track. This year a potential El Niño for
winter 2014-15 was suggested at a very early lead time (May or
so, highly unusual), leading to much speculation about a possible
strong El Niño come winter. Then the situation slipped during
summer as El Niño, especially a strong version, appeared much
less likely. In the last few months, models and other signs have
consistently pointed to about a 2/3 probability of a weak to
moderate El Niño. The ocean temperatures have been showing
mildly warm conditions in the ENSO area on the equator, giving
credence to expectations of a minimal to modest El Niño. As we
have pointed out in a recent fact sheet, various indicators caution
us not to expect a savior on a white horse in the form of El Niño
to end the severe drought conditions. El Niño is only one factor
that can affect western U.S. winter climate.
Connie: Anything else to add in light of your Tyndall Award and
its signi cance?
Kelly: I am very much honored and surprised by this. It's an
excellent t to my interests. Tyndall worked on three main
facets: the physics of radiative transfer in the atmosphere (CO2
effect), he was a lifelong accomplished mountaineer and has a
peak named after him in the Sierra Nevada, and most importantly
he felt a duty to translate science to the citizenry and took this
responsibility very seriously. This award gives me motivation
to expand my thinking on several fronts, and the talk will be
something of an experiment.
Kelly atop Hardscramble Peak looking northwest. Bridger Mountains, Montana. Photo:
Patrick Redmond.
CELEBRATING KELLY
Dave Clow is a respected USGS research hydrologist with the Alpine Hydrology Research Group in the Colorado Water Science
Center Group, Lakewood, CO. With over 25 years of experience in alpine hydrology, geochemistry, and geostatistics, Dave’s
interests have focused on effects of climate change for water resources in mountains of western North America and sensitivity
of alpine ecosystems to atmospheric pollution. Given that “Mountains Without Snow” is a topic of high current attention in the
mountain-science community and was the theme for the recent MtnClim 2016 Conference, I thought to corner Dave with questions
about his career in mountain hydrology, and for his perspectives about mountain water research and resources in the future.
—Editor
INTERVIEW
Connie: What questions and/or research problems are attracting
your current interest and attention in regard to mountain
hydrology?
Dave: One of the key questions that our group is currently
working on is how water, nutrient, and carbon cycles interact
with each other, and with changes in land cover and climate.
These interactions are complex, and have a strong in uence on
how ecosystems respond to stressors, such as climate change
and atmospheric deposition of nutrients and acids. These issues
have important implications for ecosystem health and carbon
sequestration in natural environments.
Connie: What has been your professional path to this research
– well, what I mean is: have you always been focused on these
topics or have your interests and research directions changed
signi cantly over the course of your career? Can you identify a
time in your earlier life when mountains and water/snow studies
rst captured your interests?
Dave: In my early career, acid rain was a big deal, and some
of the rst papers I read dealt with how mineral weathering
affects water chemistry and helps neutralize acid deposition.
Quantifying the acid buffering capacity of ecosystems was a
major scienti c objective at the time, but it seemed really dif cult
to get a handle on because so many thing can affect it: bedrock
lithology, and the amount and type of soil and vegetation are all
important. As an aspiring geologist/geochemist, I considered soil
and vegetation to be pesky confounding variables, which led me
to conduct my studies in the alpine zone, where the effects of soil
and vegetation could be minimized. Fortunately, I’ve come to
appreciate soil and vegetation since then, but still enjoy working
above treeline.
Connie: You’ve worked in many mountain regions of the west.
Do some offer better opportunities to address questions and
problems of your interest or are there other reasons for focusing
geographically?
Dave: I’ve been fortunate to work in mountain across the west,
which are incredibly diverse. The Rocky Mountains have a wide
range of bedrock types (sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous)
and climate, so every basin looks a little different. In the Sierra,
most of the range is granitic rock, which tends to weather really
slowly, so a lot of the landscape is bare rock with little soil.
Because the rocks weather so slowly, Sierran streams and lakes
tend to be super dilute, which makes them very sensitive to acid
rain and nitrogen deposition. That’s good for detecting changing
water quality conditions, but bad for ecosystems subjected to
atmospheric pollution.
Connie: Can you give a few examples of what you expect to be
among the most signi cant consequences of diminishing future
snowpacks across western mountains?
71
Mountain Views • December 2016
Dave: Approximately 1.5
billion people in the Northern
Hemisphere depend on
snowmelt as a water source
for drinking, agriculture, and
industry (Mankin et al. 2015).
Of these, 10—27 million live
in areas where it is likely that
snowmelt will no longer be
able to provide suf cient runoff
to meet summer/fall demand
by 2060 (Mankin et al. 2015).
Changes in the timing and
magnitude of snowmelt may
lead to drier soil conditions and
lower stream ows during late
summer and fall. These changes
may stress aquatic and terrestrial
ecosystems, posing challenges
for threatened and endangered
species, and have been shown
to increase the risk of large res
in the western U.S. (Abatzoglou
and Williams 2016).
Connie: Related to that question: in light of changing climates
and reduced snowfall and snowpack, are there areas of hydrologic
research that are currently under-addressed that you encourage
young mountain hydrologists to engage?
Dave: The alpine zone is under-represented in the U.S. in terms
of hydrologic monitoring and research, despite its importance as
a source of water and ecosystem services. Alpine environments
are a challenge to work in because of harsh climate conditions
and dif cult access, and as a result, research and monitoring
in the alpine zone has been limited mostly to a few small
research watersheds. We need the energy and enthusiasm of
young mountain hydrologists to test existing hypotheses in
new locations in the alpine zone, and develop new hypotheses
to explain the patterns we see in snowpack distribution and
evolution, and in hydrochemical responses to shifts in climate
and land cover.
Connie: Do you have new areas of research you would like to
approach yourself in the future, or perhaps other aspects that
you would like to emphasize (e.g., decision-support, education,
program administration?) in the next, say, ve years?
Dave: I really enjoy working with the younger scientists on my
team and at local universities. They have skill sets that will allow
us to move beyond our small research watersheds to develop
datasets and models at regional and national scales. They have
also been essential for collecting the really cool datasets that we
have in Loch Vale and other small research watersheds. Working
together and using data from our local, regional, and national
networks, we’re hoping to develop “big picture” synthesis
products that will be most useful to resource managers and the
public.
Dave heads to his favorite work environment.
References
Abatzoglou, J.T., and Williams, A.P. 2016. Impact of
anthropogenic climate change on wild re across western US
forests: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:
10.1073/pnas: 1607171113.
Mankin, J.S., Viviroli, D., Singh, D., Hoekstra, A.Y., and
Diffenbaugh, N.S. 2015. The potential for snow to supply human
water demand in the present and future: Environmental Research
Letters 10:114016.
Dave measuring snow during a
legendary Rocky Mountain winter.
INTERVIEW
NEWS AND EVENTS
Connie Millar
USDA Forest Service, Paci c Southwest Research Station,
Albany, CA, USA
A central activity of CIRMOUNT is to sponsor the biennial
Mountain Climate Conferences – MtnClim. MtnClim conferences
aspire to advance sciences related to climate and its interaction
with physical, ecological, and social systems of western North
American (and beyond) mountains by providing a forum for
communicating current research; promoting active integration
among disciplines and of science into resource-management; and
encouraging tangible opportunities for mountain professionals
to network. The meetings convene at venues in rural mountain
regions around western North America and maintain a relatively
small attendance (~100-130), which heightens chances to
interact. Formal descriptions aside, MtnClim is one of our
community’s favorite meetings – meaning we have fun, we share
a lot of great science, we learn the latest in our respective elds,
and we strengthen our bonds as a mountain clan.
MtnClim 2016 convened October 10-13 in the Cascades
Mountains at Leavenworth, Washington, and continued the
tradition of excellence established by over a decade of MtnClim
meetings. The 7th MtnClim Conference (the rst was held
in 2003 at Lake Tahoe, California) explored a central theme
of Mountains Without Snow: What are the Consequences?
Through invited and contributed oral and poster sessions,
MtnClim participants investigated roles that snowpack plays in
water resources, power generation, ecophysiology, and human
communities, with particular focus on the question: How ready
are we to foresee the full range of consequences of mountains
without snow?
The conference began with a eld trip on re ecology of the
eastern Cascade Range, led by Richy Harrod (USFS, Okanogan-
Wenatchee National Forest), followed by our legendary opening
keynote talk on “MtnClim Weather Since 2014” by Kelly
Redmond (Desert Research Institute). Kelly has presented a
similar round-up of recent weather patterns, statistics, anomalies
(which seem always to occur), and forecasts at every MtnClim
meeting we have held; this year brought from Kelly’s monitoring
data no fewer extremes, records, and unusual events than in
prior years: just different ones. Ray Bradley (University of
Massachusetts) presented a second keynote talk, “Elevation-
Dependent Warming (EDP)”, a young topic that Ray has
contributed much to pioneer and lead. I have been following his
updates avidly, as the research jury has seemed out on whether
EDP is occurring or not. The increasing evidence Ray presented
MtnClim 2016: Serious Science in an Informal Mountain Seƫ ng
Adapted from the CIRMOUNT Blog at Mountain Research Initiative:
h p://www.blogs-mri.org/mtnclim-2016-serious-science-informal-mountain-se ing/
MtnClim 2016 participants. Photo: Scotty Strachan.
73
Mountain Views • December 2016
from observational data worldwide, proxy records, and models
convinced me for the rst time that the interpretations are strong
in favor of answering “Yes” to the question: Are high mountains
experiencing elevation-dependent warming? Steve Wright’s
(Chelan Public Utility District) keynote talk explained how
climate change is likely to have tremendous effects on electric
utilities in the Paci c Northwest (and elsewhere) through its
impact on generation supply, the amount and shape of demand,
and environmental stewardship obligations. Steve addressed the
operational and policy challenges facing the industry as climates
change. A nal keynote talk from Tom Painter (Jet Propulsion
Lab) elaborated exciting new wall-to-wall “Advances in Snow
Hydrology and Water Management with the NASA Airborne
Snow Observatory” (http://aso.jpl.nasa.gov/), for which Tom is
primary architect. The data and the capacities for interpreting
snowpacks and forecasting water resources from this project are
staggering, and will go far beyond point data such as SNOTEL
sites have provided.
Beyond these keynotes, invited sessions brought speakers to
address “The Role of Climate in Mountain Lakes and Streams
(organized by Jill Baron, USGS); “Mountains Without Snow—
What are the Consequences?” (organized by Mike Dettinger,
USGS); the Machida Session, honoring Dennis Machida,
deceased director of the California Tahoe Conservancy
(organized by Greg Greenwood, Mountain Research Initiative);
“Why Does it Rain in Mountains?” (organized by Joe Casola,
University of Washington); “Mountains Without Snow =
Mountains Without Glaciers” (organized by Dan Fagre, USGS);
and a post-conference Workshop for Resource Managers
organized by Bob MacGregor (USFS), Dave Peterson (USFS),
and Jessica Halofsky (UW). Jon Riedl (National Park Service)
gave both a talk in the glacier session and also presented a
special evening program of photographs that illustrated changes
in glaciers of the Paci c Northwest over the past century. A
large set of contributed talks and posters brought the usual array
of stunning new research across a range of topics in mountain
climate- and climate-related science.
MtnClim 2016 was splendidly organized and hosted by Andy
Bunn (Western Washington University), Scotty Strachan
(University of Nevada at Reno), and Dave Peterson (USFS,
PNW Research Station), to whom I give my deepest thanks and
congratulations. Watch for information on the CIRMOUNT
website about the next meeting, MtnClim 2018, to be held at the
Rocky Mountain Biological Lab, Crested Butte, Colorado.
Oral and poster presentations will be posted as usual on the
CIRMOUNT meeting archive website. Look for them in a month
or so at:
http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/meetings/archives.shtml
MtnClim 2016 poster hall and discussions. Photo: Andy Bunn.
Sleeping Lady Resort, Leavenworth, Washington, where MtnClim 2016 convened. Photo: Courtesy of SleepingLady.com.
NEWS AND EVENTS
74 Mountain Views • December 2016
Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop 2016
October 5-6, 2016, Yosemite Valley, CA
Bruce McGurk
McGurk Hydrologic, Orinda, California
Over 50 participants attended the 15th annual Yosemite
Hydroclimate Workshop this past fall in Yosemite Valley,
Yosemite National Park, CA. The weather cooperated and
left Tioga Pass open, and there were no downpours on the
folks who were camping in the valley oor. There was a
useful session on data networks and plans, and a lunch panel
on manager information needs versus research priorities and
products.
Find the program here: http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/
publications/pdf/MVFall16_NewsYosemiteProgram.pdf
Presentations from the 2016 meeting are posted at: http://
www.ca resci.org/events-webinars-source/category/yosemite-
hydroclimate-meeting-2016
And a write-up from the resource-management panel is here:
http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/publications/pdf/MVFall16_
NewsYosemitePanel.pdf
PACLIM 2017: The Annual Paci c Climate Workshop
Asilomar Conference Grounds, Paci c Grove, California, March 5-8, 2017
PACLIM is a multidisciplinary workshop that broadly addresses the climatic phenomena occurring in the eastern Paci c Ocean and
western North America. The purpose of the workshop is to understand climate effects in this region by bringing together specialists
from diverse elds including physical, social, and biological sciences. Time scales from weather to the Quaternary are addressed in
oral and poster presentations. The theme for the 2017 conference is: “Paci c meets Atlantic: Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions”
The workshop will begin this year on Sunday evening with a memorial and remembrance of Kelly Redmond, who was a longtime
participant and traditional keynote speaker.
The abstract deadline is February 8th 2017.
Find information at: https://sites.google.com/site/paclimconference/
For questions contact the organizers, Michelle Goman (goman at sonoma.edu) or Scott Mensing (smensing at unr.edu ).
NEWS AND EVENTS
Tufa towers, Mono Lake, by Kelly Redmond.
Jim Roche, Yosemite National Park, El Portal, CA
We have been collaborating
with the hydroclimate research
community for nearly two
decades and have built a
framework of monitoring to
examine spatial variability in
snow, temperature, humidity,
runoff, and soil moisture in
the complex topography that
characterizes the Yosemite
area. Future basic research/
monitoring needs include
quantifying plant-available
water in soil and regolith as
snow ceases to be an important component of storage, as well
as obtaining better measurements of precipitation across higher
elevations as snow pack becomes a less reliable measure of
precipitation. Science that directly supports management of these
lands, however, is where real change is needed. We are watching
massive die-off of lower and mid-elevation conifer forests that is
perhaps a combination of California’s warm drought coupled with
an overdue correction due to re exclusion (too many straws!).
Activities to restore ecological function or adapt to changing
rain-snow dynamics are substantially constrained by policy ( re
in particular) and management designations such as wilderness,
which occupies much of the snow-dominated landscape in the
west. Rigorous applied science including the social and policy
elds is required to develop sound management alternatives with
associated probabilities for success and means by which they
may be actually achieved. At present, we do well with site or
species-speci c science and associated treatments. Expanding our
ability to address needs at the landscape level is where the next
challenges lie.
Polly Buotte, Department of Geography, University of Idaho,
Moscow, ID
There have always been
good and bad snow years,
but we haven’t really seen
the drastic reduction in snow
pack anticipated for the future
in many mountain ranges.
We have seen a tremendous
amount of tree mortality.
This leads me to wonder…
How is high elevation tree
mortality changing snow
accumulation and melt
patterns? Are those changes
in uencing available soil
moisture during the growing season, which in turn is in uencing
tree growth and defenses? Is there a negative feedback loop
in progress, whereby recent tree mortality is changing snow
pack dynamics such that future water availability is further
reduced, leading to more tree mortality? Will less future
snowpack exacerbate such a loop? Are we seeing the start of
a genetic-selection event for trees that are drought tolerant?
Can we alleviate any of this potential mortality through stand
management?
The prospect of no-analog future climates means we need
to understand the mechanisms that result in the climate
relationships we see in historical data. For example, we've found
summer precipitation has an important in uence on whitebark
pine mortality from mountain pine beetles. But what is the
mechanism? Does less available water result in poor growth,
making trees a less attractive food source to beetles? Does less
In this section, I query members of the CIRMOUNT community for their perspective on a topic of current interest. In the spirit of
the MtnClim 2016 Conference theme this year of “Mountains Without Snow (or Ice)”, I posed the following question to several
colleagues. Editor
VOICES IN THE WIND
Q: Given the trend toward less snow, melting glaciers, and relatively more rain than snow in mountains
(and associated effects) how does (or doesn’t) this affect your research directions for the coming 5 years
or so, and what new questions might you ask? Will this trend change the kinds of research technology
you employ; if so, how?
77
Mountain Views • December 2016
water result in lower tree defenses, making them easier for
beetles to kill? Both? We are basing our current understanding
on a relatively snowy past. How much does the winter snow pack
contribute to the need for summer precipitation? Is there a point
where no amount of summer precipitation can make up for lost
winter water?
How much longer will I be able to celebrate Mother's Day by
going backcountry skiing? Long enough for my 9-year-old
daughter to join me?
These are some of the questions that thoughts of a future with
less snow bring to mind for me.
Bruce McGurk, McGurk Hydrologic, Orinda, CA
Having spent the last 20 years as
a runoff forecaster and reservoir
operator, I’ll approach this question
from that perspective. As the rain-
snow line rises in most basins in the
west, more reservoirs are getting
increased winter in ow because less
of the basin has snow. Reservoirs
that are small compared to their
snowmelt in ow can use that winter
in ow for power generation and
pass it downstream to the larger
reservoirs. However, operators of the larger mid-elevation
reservoirs in the Sierra Nevada, have to be more cautious about
using the winter in ow. Because the snowmelt volume is
decreasing, if they take too much too early, they can end up far
from full when snowmelt runoff is over. This can cause higher
water temperatures with their summer releases, and with less
carry over they are more at risk if the next year is dry.
The shift in in ow timing places extra importance on runoff
forecasting, but our input information for that forecasting is
also being affected by less snow and higher snowlines. Snow
courses and automated snow sensors at the lower elevations in
Sierran basins are increasingly bare or subject to only intermittent
snow cover. Snow cover in the next higher elevation band may
also be less, so empirical equations used to predict runoff are
suspected of becoming less accurate. And all the snow stations
melt out earlier with warming, so the forecaster is left with little
information long before runoff actually tapers off.
An important advance that is helping to compensate for the loss
of snow at our historical stations is the NASA/JPL Airborne
Snow Observatory (ASO). This LiDAR and spectrometer
payload is being own over all or parts of 3-5 basins in the Sierra
Nevada, as well as some basins in Colorado. ASO produces
maps of depth, and by incorporating modeled density, snow water
equivalent (SWE) is calculated as well. For the rst time, we
are measuring the total basin SWE, and the information is being
used in new forecasting tools as well as being able to correct the
SWE estimation in hydrologic simulation models used for daily
in ow forecasting. The number of basins being own by ASO
will increase in the next 2-4 years, until nally all major basins
in the Sierra will have detailed SWE information 4-8 times per
winter. This new information will compensate for the loss of the
old snow stations and allow managers to better understand how
much water is above their reservoirs. As we better understand
the losses to soils, groundwater, and evapotranspiration, operators
will have greatly improved tools to respond to higher rain-snow
lines and the shift from snowmelt runoff to mixed rain and snow
runoff.
Meagan Oldfather, Department of Integrative Biology,
University of California, Berkeley, CA
I started the eldwork for my
dissertation research during a
historic drought in California.
Working in these past years on
the range-wide demography
of an alpine plant in the White
Mountains, CA has been eye-
opening experience to the
importance of the magnitude,
timing, and type of moisture
additions on alpine systems. The
trend toward less snow led me to ask how longer-term reductions
in snowpack will differentially in uence the life-history stages of
alpine plants, and the overall population growth of populations
at the edges of species ranges. For example, an earlier snowmelt
date may have a negative effect on life-history stages dependent
on later season moisture but a positive effect on stages positively
correlated with growing season length. The overall effect on the
stability of these alpine plant populations could be quite complex!
In addition, due to trends in both temperature and precipitation,
it seems important to quantify which life-history stages are
sensitive to changes in temperature and which to changes in
snow pack and soil moisture. In my work I have included an
experimental treatment across a wide elevation range that will
enable the disentanglement of the effects of heating and increased
rain on alpine plant demography and community structure.
The trends toward less snow also prompted me to extensively
measure both temperature and soil moisture across the alpine
zone of the White Mountains over many years. Across my study
VOICES IN THE WIND
78 Mountain Views • December 2016
VOICES IN THE WIND
area I use over 100 temperature data-loggers and bi-weekly soil
moisture measurements to understand the effect of topography
on the seasonality of temperature, snow cover, and soil moisture.
With these microclimate measurements I hope to assess the
spatial and temporal variability in microclimate experienced by
alpine plants across the landscape. This variability can be quite
high in alpine environments, demanding long-term monitoring of
these microclimate variables.
These observations have led me to many additional questions
that I hope to address in my future research including: Do
strong monsoonal rains ameliorate the effects of low snow
years on alpine plant population stability? How does alpine
plant physiology and demography respond to longer mid-
winter periods with no insulation from snow cover? How might
alpine species respond to a shift from temperature-limitation to
moisture-limitation at their range edges?
Jeff Hicke, Department of Geography, University of Idaho,
Moscow, ID
Snow plays a major role in
in uencing forest structure and
function through availability
of moisture for growth and
decomposition and through effects
on forest disturbances. The effects
of climate change that reduce
snowpack and advance snowmelt
lead to longer potential growing
seasons but longer periods of
summer drought in some locations
such as the western US. The longer
summer drought means that trees
experience a greater respiration cost but don’t make up for this in
terms of increased growth because of limitations associated with
soil moisture availability and/or evaporative demand. Thus, trees
in the western US are likely to experience greater drought stress
every summer. Opportunities for extreme drought that causes
tree mortality or severe growth reductions are then higher. The
higher stress suggests that trees will be more susceptible to attack
from insects and pathogens. Many tree species have evolved
defenses against these enemies, yet a stressed tree may not have
the resources needed to fend off attack. Finally, wild res in these
systems are likely to be larger, more frequent, and more severe as
a result of the longer re season and drier fuels.
Key questions related to precipitation and forests that I am
interested in include the role of insects and pathogens in tree
mortality associated with increased stress. How important is
increased summer stress in initiating or driving outbreaks? We
know that severe droughts in the early 2000s and in the last few
years killed many trees. Can outbreaks arise because of increased
annual drought? If so, for which insects and pathogens? Some of
these disturbance agents require stressed trees, others (especially
some pathogens) do better under moister conditions. How
stressed will trees become in late summer given a reduced spring
snowpack? This is particularly relevant in many areas of the
western US that experience little summer precipitation. Will
snow droughts (normal precipitation but reduced snowpack)
lead to tree mortality, either through direct physiological means
or indirectly through insects and pathogens? Addressing these
questions will lead to a better understanding of the ecology of
forests in the western US. In addition, such understanding will
increase the capacity for vegetation models to simulate these
disturbances given future climate change.
Jessica Lundquist, Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Professionally, I've accidentally
started studying melting glaciers
(instead of my usual seasonal
snow) because those were the
dominant signal in the 2015
stream ow in both Yosemite
and Olympic National Parks.
I've deliberately been studying
mountain precipitation (both rain
and snow) for a while, and recent
patterns have made me much more
interested in the seasonal timing
of rain. If we get rainfall at a time of year when we typically
get snowmelt, we're actually okay from a water resources
perspective. But forecasting future spring and summer rain is a
lot more tricky than forecasting melt amounts from winter snow
that's "already in the bank." To do this, I need to learn more
meteorology related to summer convection, monsoon moisture
transport, and paleoclimate. Since that's a lot of background
to acquire, I'm focusing on snow surface temperature in the
immediate future. Modeling snow melt that occurs in the winter
is harder than modeling snow melt in the spring because one
has to accurately know when the snow is "ripe" to melt vs. cold
enough to just absorb extra energy or extra rain. To be able to
model this right, we need to measure the snow's temperature,
which we can fortunately do with thermal remote sensing.
79
Mountain Views • December 2016
Lorrie Flint, California Water Center, U.S. Geological Survey,
Sacramento, CA
As we watch the current
snow trends in the west
we’re already asking some
pertinent questions. What
if all the precipitation
fell as rain, how would
the hydrology change? If
we consider mountains
without snow, some
rst pass analyses are
suggesting that for most
snow covered locations
throughout the western US, if there were no snow cover in
the future, there would be more recharge relative to runoff in
comparison to current snow covered conditions. Additionally,
when snow melts earlier in the season, it melts more slowly
because the sun is lower on the horizon. This all has a lot of
implications for water availability, in many cases positive
because recharge is more resilient to climate than runoff.
However, existing infrastructure for water supply, for both people
and sheries, is based on historical climatic patterns. Early
snowmelt also lengthens the dry season and accumulates more
de cit, making the forests a tinderbox. These ndings, along
with the recent drought in the west, are pushing our research
in a direction to develop an understanding of how changes in
climate impact the underlying hydrologic mechanisms, including
how changes in snow cover and timing of snowmelt play a role
in the relative occurrence of runoff and recharge. Most of these
analyses employ computer modeling, so I suspect that advances
in computing and storage would be the most obvious changes in
technology required, although remote sensing with the associated
ground truthing, is becoming more and more relevant at the large
regional scales that we study.
Don Falk, School of Natural Resources and the Environment,
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
As a mountain pyro-dendro-
climer, I think a lot about systems
that are in disequilibrium.
Changing precipitation regimes,
coupled with increasing
temperatures, are altering the
template for re to move up into
parts of many mountains that
haven't seen much re for a long
time, or for different kinds of re
to be expressed on the landscape.
We have reason to anticipate
increasing re size and severity,
and post- re recovery will be taking place in a climate that is
very different from the one in which these forests established
originally. To me that suggests the likelihood of re-climate
interactions driving many systems past tipping points into new
alternative metastable states, about which we know really very
little. Are these alternative states "permanent" (sic) or transient?
And what, if anything, can we do to alter these trajectories?
VOICES IN THE WIND
FIELD NOTES
Llamas and Lytles: Unexpected Mountain MeeƟ ngs
Scotty Strachan
University of Nevada, Reno
Reno, Nevada
You never know whom or what you are going to run across when
out doing eldwork. The craziest things can happen (I think of
my pal Naked Ben and his Cow Shower adventure), and you
may see the most unlikely events (like when I saw ghter aircraft
collide, and then assisted the ejected pilots). But some of the
most lasting memories from eldwork come from people you
meet. People that come from all walks of life and turn up in the
least expected places. Some of these meetings simply result in a
great tale (i.e. Crazy Bob and the Lizard Hunters), but every once
in a while you cross paths with folks who become friends for life.
The hardened eld scientists reading this are thinking, “Yeah,
I’ve got enough stories to ll a book myself. Tell us something
we don’t know, eh?” But for the younger crowd or the student,
it would be well to prepare your mind to not only encounter the
wild and crazy in the eld, but also make lasting and impactful
acquaintances. The lesson here is to not take anything for granted
in the eld. Such has been the case for me more than once, but
nowhere more obviously than when I ventured into an obscure
corner of Nevada called Little Spring Valley (Fig. 1).
Back in ’08, I was drafted to assist in eld scouting and sampling
for a project incorporating tree-ring work in southeastern Nevada.
Ever the consummate palaeo bird-dog, I packed a couple of
vehicles with tools and grad students, and off we went. Our
travels took us to many interesting nooks and crannies, but
Little Spring Valley was a primary target because it serves as
the headwaters of the mighty Meadow Valley Wash. Unlike
most of the Basin & Range, the mountains surrounding Little
Figure 1. Map of the state of Nevada and the location of
Little Spring Valley.
Figure 2. The Meadow Valley Wash ows year-round from Little Spring
Valley, and provides water for a large group of historical agricultural
communities.
Spring Valley actually form a closed horseshoe layout rather than
remaining openly parallel in classic regional style. Accordingly,
we sniffed out several locations around the rimming hills for old-
growth pine trees to serve as tree-ring proxies of moisture input
to the region (Fig. 2).
To serve as a base camp, we set up shop in Spring Valley State
Park, which maintains a small reservoir for shing and associated
developed campgrounds. I decided to query the local rangers
about the possibility of coring trees within Park lands, as it turned
out that a small population of Pinus ponderosa were taking
refuge on certain areas of ash ow tuff geology. While ponderosa
pines are generally known to inhabit the region, the populations
that have survived the Holocene and post 1850’s timber cutting
are widely dispersed in this part of the world. A visit to the Park
headquarters and a discussion with the folks there netted us
permission to sample the trees, providing that we informed them
later as to the age characteristics. I agreed readily to this, and
proceeded on our rst little sampling expedition that afternoon.
The trees were spectacular in appearance, and later proved
to have several old (~500 years) individuals in the ponderosa
population, but in the end the chronology was not as useful
as the other Pinus monophylla populations for hydroclimatic
information due to the perched geology (Fig. 3).
81
Mountain Views • December 2016
Figure 3. Scotty cores an isolated ponderosa pine in Spring Valley
State Park. Photo: Kurt Solander.
Figure 4. One of the author’s specialties is snif ng out the ancient Pinus
monophylla of the Great Basin, and this site was no exception. This tree
went 578 years, and was well-behaved with only 15 locally absent rings.
Photo: Kurt Solander.
FIELD NOTES
The next day, we rambled farther a eld to the north end of the
mountain horseshoe in search of ancient pinyon pine. My team
took a winding dirt road past historic ranches and elds up Camp
Canyon. The watershed we had in mind was a good 90 minutes
from our base, and off the beaten path a little. At last we came
around a bend to view, surprisingly, a grassy eld with a number
of emu grazing about. Off to one side, a small ranch house
presided over this exotic scene. We wrote it off as a lingering
effect of the “emu craze” of the 1990’s, and continued up the
canyon. We reached the toe of a wooded ridge that looked pretty
decent from the tree age perspective (ITRDB Rule #8: tree-ring
chronologies are 95% likely to be within 1 kilometer of navigable
roads), and went for a walk. We sampled medium- and old-
age single-needle pinyon pine up the ridge and over into a side
drainage with a number of nice specimens hidden among some
rolling outcrop formations (Fig. 4).
We collected a satisfactory number of cores from 30 different
trees, and then dropped into the wash to make our way back
to the main canyon. It was early afternoon, and the summer
wind was hot and dry. The chit-chat between our crew was kept
lively by the sharing of a Gatorade™ bottle that someone had
thoughtfully dropped in their pack to augment our water supplies.
We bantered along down the dusty single-track stock trail at the
wash margin, occasionally pushing great sage branches out of the
way and inhaling the wonderful scent of the Great Basin. Now,
it is not unusual to run across free-range cattle or invasive horses
in these situations, but I will admit it was a bit of a shocker to
round a turn and come face-to-face with, of all things, a pair of
llamas. I was in the lead and hit the brakes hard, trying to come
to terms with the fuzzy faces looking at me, completely out of
context. There seemed to be a twinkle in the creatures’ eyes as
the rest of the crew piled into me and stared back. There was
no sign of an owner or human guide – these llamas were free to
do as they pleased from Pioche to Panaca. Not sure how they
would react to this abrupt meeting in the wilderness, I took a
hesitant step forward and greeted them, “Why hello there, what
are you doing in this part of the world?” The llamas continued
to gaze with raised eyebrows, and I wondered if the reply would
be an infamous salivary delivery. After some long seconds, the
creatures had mercy and departed down the trail in front of us.
We watched this strange sight not without a bit of incredulity, and
then followed. They outpaced us however, and by the time we
reached the main canyon they were nowhere to be seen. They had
vanished into the sage and woodland as if they belonged to the
desert country. We packed into the truck, with Alex summarizing,
“Well, that was random!”
82 Mountain Views • December 2016
FIELD NOTES
Figure 5. It turned out that Andrew Porter, a young local ranger and
Lytle relative, left this note at our camp leading the way to the Lytle
homestead.
Figure 6. Scotty, Manetta, and
Farrel outside their home in
Eagle Valley.
Figure 7. The Lytles have a fantastic annual garden,
and take the business seriously.
Reversing our drive, we made it back to camp earlier than
planned, around 4pm. This turned out to be fortuitous, as a
handwritten note was left on our picnic table: “If you are the
ones from UNR doing tree samplings, Farrel Lytle might have
some valuable information from you. You might want to contact
him.” A sketched map accompanied this curious tip, apparently
referencing the small agricultural community of Eagle Valley
downstream about 4 miles from our campground (Fig. 5). I
looked around the group and shrugged, “Well, we’ve got a
couple hours until dinner. Who wants to go see what’s up?” This
decision to explore the human geographical dimension of our
study area would in uence my career trajectory as a scientist.
After locating the Fire Hall, the rest of the detective work wasn’t
too hard, and we soon pulled into a dirt drive that was lined with
8-foot tall juniper stockade fencing. Behind this deer- and bunny-
proof barrier was a beautiful two-story house of classic ranch
design but newer construction, a lush green lawn, and about
a half-acre of various greenery hinting at a diverse gardening
effort. I stopped the truck near a posting that read “Varmint
Hunter Parking Only” and walked through the open gate and up
to the broad porch, leaving
my companions in the vehicle
for the moment. I reached the
front door without any dogs or
shotguns taking out my ankles,
so I took this as a good sign
(Fig 6).
A knock on the door revealed a gentleman around his 70’s, a
straw hat, and a neutral but friendly expression. I may have
interrupted a foray into the garden for weeding. I hurriedly
explained: “Hello, I’m looking for Farrel Lytle. I’m Scotty,
and I’m from the University of Nevada in Reno. We’re
studying trees and climate around here, and we were told by
the folks at the State Park that you might have some interest
in what we are doing….” I trailed off as the reaction was not
immediately obvious. Farrel’s eyes moved from me to the truck
outside the gate, and then to my eld garb. Then, “Oh, you’re
from the University are you? Tree rings? I’m interested in
dendrochronology. Tell your students to come over and have a
seat.” He indicated the porch seats before turning back inside.
I nearly had to peel my eyebrows off my hat brim on the way
back to the truck – I’d never heard the term “dendrochronology”
brought up by a local Nevada resident before, let alone
pronounced correctly. This would be a curious meeting indeed
(Fig. 7).
83
Mountain Views • December 2016
Figure 9. The Lytle’s garden is ever open to visitors and friends, and
Farrel has forgotten more about semi-arid farming than I am certain I
will ever learn.
Figure 8. Alex caught this ne sh and we all had a taste.
The next two hours involved discussions of tree rings, drought,
and solar cycle harmonics as we chatted in the gathering shade
of late afternoon. Farrel also relayed recollections of his time
as a student at UNR in the 1950’s, where he earned a Master’s
degree in chemistry out of the same building that I am still based
in. It turned out that both he and his wife Manetta (who also
holds a degree from UNR) descended from settler families in the
local area and eventually ended up in Seattle as Farrel managed
a career as a senior research scientist for Boeing. “In fact,” he
commented, “are you familiar with the Fast Fourier Transform
procedure? That’s what we used for analysis of the EXAFS
phenomenon. It works in dendrochronology too.” Farrel had
led the breakthrough team that pioneered a crucial technique in
elemental analysis using x-ray spectroscopy in 1971. As I later
discovered, this down-to-earth rural Nevadan is a AAAS Fellow,
recipient of several awards in his elds of science, and developer
of techniques still used in every synchrotron light source in
operation today. Needless to say, I had expected a laid-back
afternoon following our sampling efforts, rather than the in-depth
discussion that took place on the Lytle’s porch!
As it approached dinnertime, Farrel brought us through his
garden for some early-season vegetables. After picking a bag
full of ripe-looking items, we said our goodbyes and promised
to return. Back at camp, Alex pulled out his shing license and
scavenged some cast-off line and hooks from the reservoir beach
(“I had no idea there would be shing out here!”). In less than
an hour, as we were chopping the vegetables, he showed back
up with a spectacular trout, which rounded out the day nicely
(Fig. 8).
After that rst visit, I have been back many times to visit Farrel
and Manetta. Several follow-up tales are now embedded in my
memory of Eagle Valley, including the Decadal Apple Crisp,
Dendroarchaeology of the Ancestral Twin Boarding Houses,
Pioche Labor Day BBQ, the Case of the Disappearing Corn,
Legendary Lurch the 1954 Chevy, and the Spooky Solar-Active
Petroglyphs. Gee whiz, gang! The main contribution of the Lytles
to my life, however, has been their friendship and encouragement
as I dove head rst into graduate school and nally emerged,
worn down but successful, eight years after the events of this
story. Farrel took the role of a “retired science advisor” seriously,
keeping a steady stream of articles, books, and questions coming
my way. The day that the new edition of Don Grayson’s treatise
on Great Basin prehistory arrived in my mailbox from Farrel was
de nitely a special one. Even better was when the Lytles showed
up at my doctoral defense, having driven all the way across the
state. That alone was motivation to pull off a decent presentation!
Farrel’s personal stories of defeating school and research
hardships by persistence stayed with me and still help today. The
concept of constantly exploring new avenues of investigation and
thinking outside my specialty has been repeatedly reinforced by
the Lytles’ example. Plus, seeing over 60 years of anniversaries
in action is a real treat. I’ll always be in debt to them; fellow
Nevadans that I never would have met except for eldwork and
curiosity (Fig. 9).
* Except as noted otherwise, photos are by the author.
FIELD NOTES
DID YOU SEE IT
Most of us who tour the alpine heights of the mountains during
summer have seen suncups and know how dif cult is to hike
their hollows and ridges (Fig. 1). We’ve noticed their internal
luminosity with colors of turquoise and violet, and yellow
re ections from open ground (Fig. 2). It is commonplace
knowledge that they are formed from the sun’s radiation, which
warms and melts or sublimates the snow during summer. Hence
the term, "sun cups". They have less poetically been termed
“ablation hollows”.
Observations and experiments led to several, sometimes
contradictory, qualitative ideas about the formation of these
quasi-periodic snow ablation polygons, as similar patterns
seem to result from different causes. Direct and re ected solar
radiation is considered by many researchers to be the primary
source of heat, resulting in surface instability due to more
re ected light at the base of a depression and, therefore, faster
?
This section of Mountain Views relates sense-based encounters of mountain weather, climate, and environments. Wally Woolfenden has
contributed articles and artwork to prior issues of Mountain Views. His remarkable new pastel, “Spring Thaw” prompted me to invite
him to develop a brief explanation of sun cups, which he shares here. —Editor
Sun Cups:
The Beauty of MathemaƟ cs Illuminates
the Beauty of the PaƩ erns of Nature
Wally Woolfenden
Retired, USDA Forest Service
Bishop, California
melting than the peaks. Other postulates are that air is the
primary heat source that promotes suncup growth with warmer
air temperatures and higher wind speed augmenting growth; it
was noticed that they do not grow in direct sunlight and disappear
when solar radiation is greater. Researchers have also suggested
dirt as a variable driving suncup formation. Since a thin layer of
dirt on snow speeds up ablation by inhibiting re ected light and
thicker dirt slows ablation, as snow ablates, dirt accumulates on
higher surfaces and the thinner dirt remains on lower surfaces
causing hollows to deepen and ridges to form.
These observations and experiments on ablation structures,
however, the mechanics of their formation and their shapes, had
not been quanti ed until physicists proposed a few mathematical
models (Betterton 2001, Tiedje, et al. 2006). The process of
suncup formation is very complex so the models use only the
essential, simpli ed, and approximate factors. Both models
consider the evolution of variable surface topography of
snow from initial conditions based on diffusive smoothing
(Betterton) and Gaussian-smoothed white noise (Tiedje,
et al.), which interacts with the absorption and scattering
of sunlight leading to differential radiation intensity,
instability and formation of ablation structures. Betterton
also developed a model for the dynamics of dirt on snow,
which calculates the effect of dirt thickness on light
wavelengths and rate of ablation. Although the models
simulate observed conditions fairly accurately the authors
acknowledge that some important physical processes may
have been overlooked due to shortcomings in predictions
and suggest the need for eld experiments.
Figure 1. Wally climbing to Mt. Abbot cirque,
Sierra Nevada, California, while avoiding nascent
spring suncups. Photo: Gary Milano.
85
Mountain Views • December 2016
References
Tiedje, T., Mitchell, K.A., Lau, B., Ballestad,
A., Nodwell, E. 2006. Radiation transport
model for ablation hollows on snow elds. J.
Geophys. Res. 111:1-11.
Betterton, M.D. 2002. Theory of structure
formation in snow elds motivated by
penitents, suncups, and dirt cones. Physical
Review E, 63, 056129: 3-12.
Figure 2. Spring Thaw. Pastel by Wally Woolfenden.
Figure 3. Suncups on Mt. Conness above Alpine Lake, July 17, 2016. Photo: Connie Millar
DID YOU SEE IT
Bob Coats is a Research Hydrologist and Principal of Hydroikos
Ltd. in Berkeley, CA. Bob has been studying climatic,
hydrologic, and ecological processes in the Lake Tahoe Basin—
and writing poetry—for more than 40 years. His poems have
appeared in Orion, Zone 3, Windfall, The Acorn, and the Pudding
House anthology, Fresh Water: Poems from the Rivers, Lakes
and Streams, Harsh Green World, and elsewhere. See Sugartown
Publishing for Bob's recent book.
Adrienne Marshall has interests in hydrology, watershed
studies, and mountain systems and is pursuing a PhD in Water
Resources at the University of Idaho, Moscow, ID. Adrienne
is an avid mountain walker, and has spent considerable time in
the Sierra Nevada of California, where she sketches mountains,
lakes, skies, trees, and animals. You can view paintings on her
gallery site at: https://adriennehikes.wordpress.com/
Dirk Schmeller is a Senior Researcher in the Department
of Conservation Biology at the Helmoholtz Centre for
Environmental Research—UFZ, Leipzig, Germany and leader
of the Belmont Forum P3 project, summarized in the Belmont
Projects section. Dirk is also a passionate amateur nature
photographer and documents his work in the Pyrenees and
elsewhere. He has a foible for mountain panoramas, but also likes
macro photography.
Wally Woolfenden is retired paleoecologist and archeologist
formerly with the US Forest Service, Paci c Southwest Region,
California. Wally’s research focused on vegetation and climate
reconstruction using pollen from sediment cores of lakes,
including the 800,000 yr Owens Lake, California record. Wally’s
geosciences training gives him ample expertise to read the
geomorphology as he passes through the landscapes of his Sierra
Nevada homeland.
Jeff Wyneken is a manuscript editor based in Albany, CA, and
works for Stanford University and University of California
Presses as well as private clients. He often undertakes book
projects in their natural history and physical sciences divisions.
A veteran eld assistant to the Mountain Views editor, as well as
a devoted mountain trekker, he takes advantage of the mountain
scenery through which he walks for his photography.
CONTRIBUTING ARTISTS
Rubber rabbitbrush (Ericameria nauseosa) in central Nevada, by Kelly Redmond
Although these performances occurred last summer, the concept seems important to share, in that art and dance have great capacity to
communicate science and motivate social response. Hopefully there will be more projects like this.
Changing Balance/Balancing Change
Changing Balance/Balancing Change was a dance performance that explored climate science and climate change impacts occurring in
northwest Montana. The CoMotion Dance Project, from the University of Montana, was commissioned by the Glacier National Park
Conservancy to create this new, interactive performance that examined current and predicted changes impacting our planet. Using
visible changes in Glacier as a fulcrum, the piece communicated basic understandings about climate change in the Northern Rockies
and provided a framework for dialogue. The piece wove artistic dance, original music, choreographed narration, video projection, and
live interactions with the audience into an immersive arts experience designed to engage audiences with the ideas and emotions at the
heart of climate change. Developed for all ages, Changing Balance/Balancing Change included content such as rate of temperature
change, greenhouse gases, and positive action we can take in response to the realities facing our planet.
MOUNTAIN VISIONS
Studies in Granite
Half Dome, Yosemite National Park, Kelly Redmond Moonlight on Kearsarge Pinnacles, Adrienne Marshall
Study in Granite, Wally Woolfenden
Second Lake, The Palisades, Sierra Nevada, CA, Jeff Wyneken
... These weather stations are operated by the Colombian meteorological service (the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales -IDEAM) and the Colombian Coffee Research Center (the Centro de Investigaciones del Café -CENICAFÉ), and their instrumental periods range from 21 years (the shortest historical period) to 58 years (the longest dataset). We also processed the hourly records gathered at a set of temperature and humidity data loggers that we installed in late 2008 (Ruiz et al. 2011;Ruiz-Carrascal 2016) along an elevational gradient that follows the main stream of the Claro basin. In total, twelve digital sensors (out of twenty-three U23-001 HOBO® data loggers) were selected for this analysis. ...
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One way of deducing vertical shifts in the altitudinal distribution of Colombian high-altitude páramo environments is by inferring fluctuations in the height of the local freezing level. In our research, we are implementing two complementary approaches to reconstruct Late Pleistocene to Holocene changes in the freezing level height (FLH) in two of the most extensively glacier-covered areas of the northern Andes. We combined remote sensing and field-based geomorphological mapping with time-series reconstruction of changes in the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. Changes in the FLH were based on already-published ~30 kyr paleo-reconstructions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the eastern tropical Pacific and the western tropical Atlantic, as well as on reconstructed long-term sea level changes and empirical orthogonal functions of present-day (historical) Indo-Pacific and tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. We also analyzed the probability distribution of air-sea temperature differences and the spatial distribution of grid points with SSTs above the minimum threshold necessary to initiate deep convection. We considered available historical near-surface and free air temperature data of ERA-Interim reanalysis products, General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations, weather stations, and (deployed by our group) digital sensors, to assess the normal Environmental Lapse Rates (ELRs) at the regional to local scale. The combined maps of glacial landforms and our reconstructed FLHs provided us with a well-founded inference of potential past glacier advances, narrowing down the coarse resolution of ice margins suggested by previous research efforts. The extent of the areas with temperatures below the freezing point suggested here for the summits of our main study site exceeds in magnitude the corresponding glacier icecaps and front advances proposed by previous studies. Conversely, our average lowest altitudes of the FLH for our comparative site are consistently above the main glacier-front advances previously suggested. Our results indicate that, compared to the maximum upward changes that likely took place over the past ca. 20,000 years in our two areas of interest, the observed (present-day) upward shifts of the FLH have occurred at a rate that significantly surpasses our inferred rates. Our study helps fill the gaps in understanding past climatic changes and present trends in the region of interest and provides some insights into analyzing the signals of natural and anthropogenic climate change.
... Estos modelos pueden aportar lecciones aprendidas y protocolos para orientar el funcionamiento de redes nacionales y constituir plataformas para dar visibilidad a los esfuerzos (ver por ej. Ruiz-Carrascal, 2016;Cuesta et al., 2017;Mathez-Stiefel et al., 2017). ...
Research
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RESUMEN Se presenta una síntesis de la propuesta para una estrategia de monitoreo integrado de los ecosistemas de alta montaña en Colombia, formulada a través de un proceso de discusión y consulta con la participación de múltiples actores con experiencia en el monitoreo de ecosistemas altoandinos del país. La propuesta parte de la necesidad de contar con sistemas integrados de monitoreo con un enfoque de manejo adaptativo, que permitan evaluar el impacto de los cambios en el contexto político-económico y el cambio global sobre la biodiversidad y los servicios ecosistémicos, y que aporten insumos para la planificación territorial, la adaptación al cambio climático y la restauración ecológica. Se priorizan los ecosistemas altoandinos de Colombia ya que incluyen ecosistemas estratégicos como los páramos y glaciares y constituyen un hotspot global de biodiversidad, proveyendo servicios ecosistémicos clave como la regulación de la oferta hídrica para una creciente población rural y urbana. Adicionalmente presentan una alta exposición y vulnerabilidad frente al cambio climático. Existe un número importante de experiencias de monitoreo a nivel nacional y en la zona altoandina de Colombia, incluyendo esquemas de seguimiento de biomasa y carbono, diversidad taxonómica y funcional, clima, dinámica hídrica y glaciares, así como cambios en el uso de la tierra y las dinámicas socioambientales. Tomando como base esta experiencia, se discuten los retos que plantea su articulación en un sistema integrado y se presenta la síntesis de un mo-delo conceptual multiescalar de los principales procesos generadores de cambio y las principales variables respuestas que pudieran ser objeto de monitoreo, desde el ámbito nacional hasta el nivel de ecosistemas o parcelas. Finalmente, se presentan los principales productos esperados de la implementación de la estrategia, un esquema de organización institucional y los próximos pasos que consideramos necesarios para promover su consolidación.
... Estos modelos pueden aportar lecciones aprendidas y protocolos para orientar el funcionamiento de redes nacionales y constituir plataformas para dar visibilidad a los esfuerzos (ver por ej. Ruiz-Carrascal, 2016;Cuesta et al., 2017;Mathez-Stiefel et al., 2017). ...
... In addition to forest plots, there are other research sites and networks for the collection of important ecosystem variables. For instance, the Poleka Kasue Mountain Observatory, which is part of the Global Network of Mountain Observatories, collects information on biodiversity, climate, hydrology, carbon stocks, and socio-economic variables in the Central Andes (Ruiz-Carrascal, 2016). Other relevant regional efforts are for example the network of dry forest ecosystems coordinated by the Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos, Alexander von Humboldt (IAvH) (Pizano and Garcia, 2014), and a synthesis network on Andean forests (Condesan, 2017). ...
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After more than 50-years of armed conflict, Colombia is now transitioning to a more stable social and political climate due to a series of peace agreements between the government and different armed groups. Consequences of these socio-economic and political changes on ecosystems are largely uncertain, but there is growing concern about derived increases in environmental degradation. Here, we review the capacity of Colombia to monitor the state of its ecosystems and their rate of change over time. We found several important programs currently set in place by different institutions as well as by independent groups of scientists that address different aspects of environmental monitoring. However, most of the current initiatives could be improved in terms of data coverage, quality and access, and could be better articulated among each other. We propose a set of activities that would increase the capacity of Colombia to monitor its ecosystems, provide useful information to policy makers, and facilitate scientific research. These include: 1) the establishment of a national center for ecological synthesis that focuses on analyzing existing information; 2) the establishment of an ecological observatory system that collects new information, integrates remote sensing products, and produces near real-time products on key ecological variables; and 3) the creation of new platforms for dialog and action within existing scientific and policy groups.
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There is growing consensus that biodiversity losses resulting from global change profoundly affects ecosystem services and human welfare. However, biodiversity and ecosystem processes are commonly monitored independently and on spatiotemporal scales inadequate to inform decision-making. The high Andean ecosystems of Colombia, extending from high Andean forests and páramos to glacier ice caps, form dynamic landscapes because of the interaction of climate and land use change in a complex socioeconomic and political context, including new demographic dynamics and policies associated with the peace process and strict regulations for economic activities in the páramos. Moreover, they are part of a global biodiversity hotspot and provide key ecosystem services, including substantial carbon accumulation and water regulation and provision for large rural and urban populations. There is substantial experience in environmental monitoring of Colombia's high mountain ecosystems, including programs addressing biodiversity, carbon stocks, hydrology, glaciers, and land use dynamics. However, a conceptual and institutional framework for integrating these diverse initiatives is required. Here, we present a proposal to promote integrated monitoring of biodiversity and ecosystem services in high mountain ecosystems in Colombia as a contribution to consolidating a national ecosystem monitoring program. We describe the methodology used to design this integrated strategy based on an extensive process of consultation with monitoring experts in the region. Then, we review the state of the art of environmental monitoring in the Colombian High Andes. Based on the experience accumulated, we propose a multiscale conceptual framework for analyzing drivers of change and response variables from the local to the national scale, emphasizing the importance of monitoring along altitudinal, land use, and ecosystem restoration gradients. Finally, we describe the expected outcomes and possible institutional arrangements for the strategy, as well as some key next steps for promoting its implementation.
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Public lands in the US Rocky Mountains provide critical ecosystem services, especially to rural communities that rely on these lands for fuel, food, water, and recreation. Climate change will likely affect the ability of these lands to provide ecosystem services. We describe 2 efforts to assess climate change vulnerabilities and develop adaptation options on federal lands in the Rocky Mountains. We specifically focus on aspects that affect community economic security and livelihood security, including water quality and quantity, timber, livestock grazing, and recreation. Headwaters of the Rocky Mountains serve as the primary source of water for large populations, and these headwaters are located primarily on public land. Thus, federal agencies will play a key role in helping to protect water quantity and quality by promoting watershed function and water conservation. Although increased temperatures and atmospheric concentration of CO2 have the potential to increase timber and forage production in the Rocky Mountains, those gains may be offset by wildfires, droughts, insect outbreaks, non-native species, and altered species composition. Our assessment identified ways in which federal land managers can help sustain forest and range productivity, primarily by increasing ecosystem resilience and minimizing current stressors, such as invasive species. Climate change will likely increase recreation participation. However, recreation managers will need more flexibility to adjust practices, provide recreation opportunities, and sustain economic benefits to communities. Federal agencies are now transitioning from the planning phase of climate change adaptation to implementation to ensure that ecosystem services will continue to be provided from federal lands in a changing climate.
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Climate change will likely have significant effects on forest ecosystems worldwide. In Mediterranean regions, such as that in southwestern Oregon, USA, changes will likely be driven mainly by wildfire and drought. To minimize the negative effects of climate change, resource managers require tools and information to assess climate change vulnerabilities and to develop and implement adaptation actions. We developed an approach to facilitate development and implementation of climate change adaptation options in forest management. This approach, applied in a southwestern Oregon study region, involved establishment of a science–manager partnership, a science-based assessment of forest and woodland vulnerabilities to climate change, climate change education in multiple formats, hands-on development of adaptation options, and application of tools to incorporate climate change in planned projects. Through this approach, we improved local manager understanding of the potential effects of climate change in southwestern Oregon, and enabled evaluation of proposed management activities in the context of climatic stressors. Engaging managers throughout the project increased ownership of the process and outcomes, as well as the applicability of the adaptation options to on-the-ground actions. Science–management partnerships can effectively incorporate evolving science, regardless of the socio-political environment, and facilitate timely progress in adaptation to climate change.
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Recent vulnerability assessments, conducted in diverse regions in the northwestern United States, indicate that many commonalities exist with respect to projected vulnerabilities to climate change. Dry forests are projected to have significant changes in distribution and abundance of species, partially in response to higher temperature and lower soil moisture, but mostly in response to projected increases in extreme events and disturbances—drought, wildfire, and insect outbreaks. Wildfire and mountain pine beetles have caused extensive mortality across millions of hectares in this region during the past decade, and wildfire area burned is projected to increase 200%–300% by mid-21st century. Science–management partnerships associated with recent assessments have identified an extensive list of adaptation options, including both strategies (general planning) and tactics (on-the-ground projects). Most of the options focus on increasing resilience to disturbances and on reducing current stressors to resource conditions. Adaptation options are generally similar across the biogeographically diverse region covered by assessments, suggesting that there may be a limit on the number of feasible responses to climate change. Federal agencies in the northwestern United States are now using these assessments and adaptation approaches to inform sustainable resource management and planning, mostly through fine tuning of existing practices and policies.
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Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of ∼2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of >300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.
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The U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and National Park Service (NPS) have highlighted climate change as an agency priority and issued direction to administrative units for responding to climate change. In response, the USFS and NPS initiated the North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership (NCAP) in 2010. The goals of the NCAP were to build an inclusive partnership, increase climate change awareness, assess vulnerability, and develop science-based adaptation strategies to reduce these vulnerabilities. The NCAP expanded previous science-management partnerships on federal lands to a larger, more ecologically and geographically complex region and extended the approach to a broader range of stakeholders. The NCAP focused on two national forests and two national parks in the North Cascades Range, Washington (USA), a total land area of 2.4 million ha, making it the largest science-management partnership of its kind. The NCAP assessed climate change vulnerability for four resource sectors (hydrology and access; vegetation and ecological disturbance; wildlife; and fish) and developed adaptation options for each sector. The NCAP process has proven to be a successful approach for implementing climate change adaptation across a region and can be emulated by other land management agencies in North America and beyond.
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This guidebook contains science-based principles, processes, and tools necessary to assist with developing adaptation options for national forest lands. The adaptation process is based on partnerships between local resource managers and scientists who work collaboratively to understand potential climate change effects, identify important resource issues, and develop management options that can capitalize on new opportunities and reduce deleterious effects. Because management objectives and sensitivity of resources to climate change differ among national forests, appropriate processes and tools for developing adaptation options may also differ. Regardless of specific processes and tools, the following steps are recommended: (1) become aware of basic climate change science and integrate that understanding with knowledge of local resource conditions and issues (review), (2) evaluate sensitivity of specific natural resources to climate change (rank), (3) develop and implement strategic and tactical options for adapting resources to climate change (resolve), and (4) monitor the effectiveness of adaptation options (observe) and adjust management as needed. Results of recent case studies on adaptation in national forests and national parks can facilitate integration of climate change in resource management and planning and make the adaptation process more efficient. Adaptation to climate change will be successful only if it can be fully implemented in established planning processes and other operational aspects of national forest management.
Article
Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability.
Book
This volume offers a scientific assessment of the effects of climatic variability and change on forest resources in the United States. Derived from a report that provides technical input to the 2013 U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment, the book serves as a framework for managing U.S. forest resources in the context of climate change. The authors focus on topics having the greatest potential to alter the structure and function of forest ecosystems, and therefore ecosystem services, by the end of the 21st century. Part I provides an environmental context for assessing the effects of climate change on forest resources, summarizing changes in environmental stressors, followed by state-of-science projections for future climatic conditions relevant to forest ecosystems. Part II offers a wide-ranging assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems and ecosystem services to climate change. The authors anticipate that altered disturbance regimes and stressors will have the biggest effects on forest ecosystems, causing long-term changes in forest conditions. Part III outlines responses to climate change, summarizing current status and trends in forest carbon, effects of carbon management, and carbon mitigation strategies. Adaptation strategies and a proposed framework for risk assessment, including case studies, provide a structured approach for projecting and responding to future changes in resource conditions and ecosystem services. Part IV describes how sustainable forest management, which guides activities on most public and private lands in the United States, can provide an overarching structure for mitigating and adapting to climate change.