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The psychology of offender profiling
... The interaction between the offender and his victim reflects another person-situation influence on offending behaviour. The offender's response to the victim's behaviour (resistance/compliance) will be defined by the offender's attitudes and roles they place upon their victim (Canter, 1989;Davies, 1992). In her 1992 paper, Davies describes a serial rapist who changed his behaviour as a result of the victims' behaviour; with those who had resisted more heavily he was more violent and threatening with, while those that had been compliant, he used minimal aggression towards, and with one he even arranged a date to see her again. ...
... Conversely, it has also been found that victims who respond with forceful physical or verbal resistance reduce the likelihood of a completed sexual assault (Block & Skogan, 1986;Ullman, 1998;Ullman & Siegel, 1993), without increasing their risk of physical injury (Kleck & Sayles, 1990;Ullman & Knight, 1992), especially in the instance of offenders using verbal pressure as opposed to physical force (Ullman & Siegel, 1993). According to Canter interactions with others (Canter, 1989). Depending on which role the victim takes will vary the level of power and control exhibited which will be reflected and represented in the corresponding crime scene actions (Canter, 1989). ...
... According to Canter interactions with others (Canter, 1989). Depending on which role the victim takes will vary the level of power and control exhibited which will be reflected and represented in the corresponding crime scene actions (Canter, 1989). The different roles are the victim as a significant person; as a vehicle to achieve some external goal; or as a depersonalised object, each having their own implication for the levels of violence displayed by the offender if the victim resists. ...
The area of Offender Profiling generates a lot of interest in both the academic field and the everyday world as a result of a few highly prolific cases (e.g., Jack the Ripper, Boston Strangler). Historically, profiling has been based on intuition and experience, but as the field has matured, the need to be more scientific in approach has led to the development of empirically driven models/typologies of offender behaviour based.Different approaches have attempted to define, and operationalize offender profiling based on the individual principles inherent in each approach.Briefly, the Criminal Investigative approach to profiling initially relied upon the investigative experience and observation of FBI agents who soon started publishing on the topic. However, in more recent years, large databases containing information on serial and violent crime/criminals has allowed for more empirical approaches to emerge (Snook, Luther, House, Bennell, & Taylor, 2012). The Clinical approach, on the other hand, adopts a model of offender profiling that centers on the concept of motives. Finally, and most recently, the Statistical approach has aimed to provide a testable scientific framework for identifying and inferring offender characteristics/motives.However, none of these approaches alone can explain the complexities of offending behaviour. The Criminal Investigative approach brings with it a multitude of experience from investigators; the Clinical brings an abundance of medical and privileged clientbased knowled ≥ while the Statistical approach aims to provide more objective measures and examination of offending behaviour. Without the experience, knowledge, and information offered by the first two approaches, the ability to know which variables to look for or code for would be lost. However, the latter Statistical approach allows practitioner-based knowledge to be integrated with the objective examination of offending patterns and correlated findings. Therefore, the way forward should seek to integrate all of the approaches (Alison, West, & Goodwill, 2004; Alison, Goodwill, Almond, van den Heuvel, & Winter, 2010). Together, the approaches strengthen each other and give weight and support to one another. More importantly, they help strengthen the field of offender profiling as a whole.In this chapter, an overview and critique of the offender profiling literature; its underlying assumptions; and the relationship between the crime scene actions and the offender characteristics will be presented. In addition, each of the approaches to offender profiling that have developed over its short empirical history will be described and critiqued.
... This parallels the generals of Ancient Rome building a picture of the Barabarian leaders they would face in battle. It is therefore not surprising as discussed by (D. Canter, 1995) that as long ago as 1888 when Jack the Ripper stalked the streets of London that some attempt was made to produce a description of the person who had committed these still unsolved crimes. By the 1970's, as(Blau, 1994) makes clear, police forces throughout the USA were referring to the process of speculating about the characteristics of offenders they were looking for as 'offender profiling'. ...
... Canter, Alison, Alison, & Wentink, 2004) of Holmes typology (D.) have demonstrated that these classification schemes of serial killers do not withstand close empirical test. Drawing on a background in social and environmental psychology Canter demonstrated in his award winning book Criminal Shadows (Canter 1995) that the central question of Offender Profiling is to establish the basis for making inferences from offence actions to offender characteristics. He proposed that this may be fruitfully thought of as the need to solve what he called the A ⇒ C Equations: The formal scientific framework used to represent the relationships between a set of actions in a crime (the As) and the set of characteristics of the offender (the Cs)(D. ...
... He proposed that this may be fruitfully thought of as the need to solve what he called the A ⇒ C Equations: The formal scientific framework used to represent the relationships between a set of actions in a crime (the As) and the set of characteristics of the offender (the Cs)(D. V. Canter, 1995). As Youngs has elaborated (Youngs, 2007) these equations are canonical in the statistical sense that there may be many different sets of variables that typify the Actions which may relate in a variety of ways to a mixture of offenders Characteristics. ...
... Two critical assumptions underlie behavioural crime linking. First, that offenders' behaviour across crimes is consistent, and second, that there is variation between individual offenders; in other words, they behave differently from each other ( Alison, Bennell, Mokros, & Ormerod, 2002;Canter, 1995). The central hypothesis in behavioural crime linking is that these assumptions of consistency and variability exist in the behaviour of the offender in a particular crime type ( Bennell & Canter, 2002;Crabbé, Decoene, & Vertommen, 2008). ...
... For example, Santtila, Fritzon, and Tamelander (2004) found that 33% of cases of arson were correctly linked on the basis of behaviour. Behavioural crime linking has also been studied in cases of rape ( Bennell, Jones, & Melnyk, 2009;Canter, 1995;Grubin et al., 1997;Grubin et al., 2001;Santtila, Junkkila, & Sandnabba, 2005) and burglary ( Bennell & Canter, 2002;Bennell & Jones, 2005;Goodwill & Alison, 2006;Green, Booth, & Biderman, 1976). Some studies have also successfully linked together cases of murder, analysing crime scene behaviour. ...
This study explored whether a coding bias due to knowledge of which crimes have been committed by the same offender exists when behavioural variables are coded in serial murder cases. The study used an experimental approach where the information given to the participants (N = 60) concerning correct linkages between a number of murder series was manipulated. The participants were divided into three different groups (n = 20 in each). These three groups received correct, incorrect, or no information about the linked series prior to the coding. The results showed that there is no clear evidence to support the hypothesis of a bias in the coding. The risk of expectancy effects and suggestions on how to minimise them in behavioural crime linking research were discussed, and suggestions on how to improve the validity of possible future replications of the experiment were given. The practical implications of expectancy effects on behavioural crime linking decisions for the justice system were also discussed.
... Behavioural crime linking rests on the theoretical assumptions of consistency and interindividual variation (Alison et al., 2002; Canter, 1995 Canter, , 2000 Woodhams & Toye, 2007). The consistency assumption states that an offender's behaviour is consistent across crime scenes and influenced by stable characteristics of the offender, while the inter-individual variation assumption states that the crime scene behaviour of one offender is different from that of other offenders. ...
... Some supporting evidence for the assumptions of consistency and inter-individual variation comes from effective crime linking. Behavioural variables have successfully been used to link cases of burglary (Bennell & Canter, 2002; Bennell & Jones, 2005; Goodwill & Alison, 2006; Green, Booth, & Biderman, 1976), rape (Canter, 1995; Grubin, Kelly, & Ayis, 1997; Grubin et al., 2001; Santtila, Junkkila, & Sandnabba, 2005), and arson (Santtila, Fritzon, & Tamelander, 2004). Regarding serial homicide, there have also been studies supporting the consistency of offender behaviours (Bateman & Salfati, 2007; Lundigran & Canter, 2001; Salfati & Bateman, 2005). ...
Purpose. The study extends research by Santtila et al. (2008) by investigating the effectiveness of linking cases of serial homicide using behavioural patterns of offenders, analysed through Bayesian reasoning. The study also investigates the informative value of individual behavioural variables in the linking process.
Methods. Offender behaviour was coded from official documents relating to 116 solved homicide cases belonging to 19 separate series. The basis of the linkage analyses was 92 behaviours coded as present or absent in the case based on investigator observations on the crime scene. We developed a Bayesian method for linking crime cases and judged its accuracy using cross‐validation. We explored the information added by individual behavioural variables, first, by testing if the variable represented purely noise with respect to classification, and second, by excluding variables from the original model, one by one, by choosing the behaviour that had the smallest effect on classification accuracy.
Results. The model achieved a classification accuracy of 83.6% whereas chance expectancy was 5.3%. In simulated scenarios of only one and two known cases in a series, the accuracy was 59.0 and 69.2%, respectively. No behavioural variable represented pure noise but the same level of accuracy was achieved by analysing a set of 15, as analysing all 92 variables.
Conclusion. The study illustrates the utility of analysing individual behavioural variables through Bayesian reasoning for crime linking. Feasible applied use of the approach is illustrated by the effectiveness of analysing a small set of carefully chosen variables.
... Crime linkage relies on two central assumptions drawn from personality psychology: (a) behavioral consistency and (b) behavioral distinctiveness (also known as behavioral differentiation or variability; Melnyk et al. 2011;Tonkin, Grant, and Bond 2008). The consistency assumption, as outlined by Canter (1994), refers to the idea that "the way an offender carries out one crime on one occasion will have some characteristic similarities to the way he or she carries out crimes on other occasions" (p. 347 distinctiveness assumption refers to the idea that offenders must not only behave consistently from one crime to another, but they must also exhibit a relatively high level of behavioral uniqueness in their crime commission compared to other serial offenders committing the same crime type. ...
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... Where similar yet distinctive behaviour is observed, greater confidence is attributed to the crimes being the work of the same perpetrator (Woodhams, Bull, & Hollin, 2007). The underlying principles of crime linkage are therefore that offenders will show a degree of consistency in their crime scene behaviour over time (the Consistency Hypothesis;Canter, 1995), and that offenders will show a degree of distinctiveness in their crime scene behaviour (Bennell & Canter, 2002), allowing the crimes of one offender to be distinguished from those of another offender committing a similar sort of crime 2 . ...
Purpose
To conduct a test of the principles underpinning crime linkage (behavioural consistency and distinctiveness) with a sample more closely reflecting the volume and nature of sexual crimes with which practitioners work, and to assess whether solved series are characterized by greater behavioural similarity than unsolved series.
Method
A sample of 3,364 sexual crimes (including 668 series) was collated from five countries. For the first time, the sample included solved and unsolved but linked‐by‐DNA sexual offence series, as well as solved one‐off offences. All possible crime pairings in the data set were created, and the degree of similarity in crime scene behaviour shared by the crimes in each pair was quantified using Jaccard's coefficient. The ability to distinguish same‐offender and different‐offender pairs using similarity in crime scene behaviour was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. The relative amount of behavioural similarity and distinctiveness seen in solved and unsolved crime pairs was assessed.
Results
An Area Under the Curve of .86 was found, which represents an excellent level of discrimination accuracy. This decreased to .85 when using a data set that contained one‐off offences, and both one‐off offences and unsolved crime series. Discrimination accuracy also decreased when using a sample composed solely of unsolved but linked‐by‐DNA series (AUC = .79).
Conclusions
Crime linkage is practised by police forces globally, and its use in legal proceedings requires demonstration that its underlying principles are reliable. Support was found for its two underpinning principles with a more ecologically valid sample.
... Indeed, a high proportion of offender profiles has been shown to be unsubstantiated (Alison, Smith, Eastman, & Rainbow, 2003;Canter, Alison, Alison, & Wentink, 2004). However, more recent research has taken on a statistical approach (i.e., behavioural investigative advice) based on multivariate analysis of crime scene information to infer offender characteristics and psychological processes (Canter, 1995). Some evidence suggests that the behaviour committed at the crime scene by homicide offenders is linked to their past behaviour and background characteristics (Canter, 2011;Salfati, 2000;Salfati & Bateman, 2005;Trojan & Salfati, 2010). ...
Previous research suggests different crime scene patterns reflect differences in the background characteristics of the offender. However, whether differences in crime scene patterns are related to offender, psychopathology remains unclear. We hypothesise that schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and depressive illness will each associate to a specific homicide crime scene pattern. Homicide data were obtained from the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Homicide by People with Mental Illness. Our sample comprised 759 homicides committed by offenders in contact with mental health services in the year preceding the offence and with an available psychiatric report. We used joint correspondence analysis to examine patterns between different methods of homicide, circumstances of homicide, victim gender, and victim age groups. Three homicide patterns were identified: male conflict homicide, intimate female homicide, and child homicide. Additionally, each homicide pattern was associated with one or more mental illnesses. Results are discussed in terms of the possible role of psychopathology in “offender profiling” research.
... За Canter-а, профил учиниоца је процес извођења закључака о карактеристикама учиниоца, на основу радње извршеног кривичног дела (Canter, 1995). Turvey дефинише профил као скуп закључака о особинама лица одговорног за извршење кривичног дела или серије Саша Мијалковић, Младен Бајагић кривичних дела (Turvey, 2008) Са друге стране, Patherick, Turvey и Ferguson дефинишу профилисање као методу истраге којом се изводе закључци о карактеристикама учиниоца (Patherick, Turvey, Ferguson, 2010). ...
... However, crime linkage rests on two key assumptions. First, the offender consistency hypothesis [8] stating that offenders display similar behaviors across time and place. Second, the offender specificity hypothesis [9] describing that offenders have an approach that deviate or is distinct from other offenders' approaches. ...
... Crime linkage relies on two central assumptions drawn from personality psychology: (a) behavioral consistency and (b) behavioral distinctiveness (also known as behavioral differentiation or variability; Melnyk et al. 2011;Tonkin, Grant, and Bond 2008). The consistency assumption, as outlined by Canter (1994), refers to the idea that "the way an offender carries out one crime on one occasion will have some characteristic similarities to the way he or she carries out crimes on other occasions" (p. 347 distinctiveness assumption refers to the idea that offenders must not only behave consistently from one crime to another, but they must also exhibit a relatively high level of behavioral uniqueness in their crime commission compared to other serial offenders committing the same crime type. ...
Crime specialization is one of the most researched and often-debated criminal career parameters. To date, the concept of specialization has been approached mainly from a static viewpoint whereby crime specialization and criminal versatility have been conceptualized as two opposite end of a continuum. Emerging research based on longitudinal data, however, has led to the emergence of a dynamic-oriented perspective where specialization and versatility can occur during one’s career. In this essay, the evolution of the concept of crime specialization is highlighted along with associated theoretical, conceptual, methodological, and empirical issues stemming from this gradual change. Policy implications and directions for future research on the development of criminal careers are highlighted.
... The way an offender commits a homicide and the behaviors they engage in at the crime scene may be influenced by their previous criminal offending (Salfati, 2009). This idea is reflective of the central issue behind empirical offender profiling effortswhether there is continuity between crime scene actions and the offender's personal characteristics, what Canter (1995) refers to as the Actions to Characteristics, or A to C, equation. A growing body of research has attempted to establish these A to C relationships in homicide events using empirical methodologies (e.g. ...
Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to determine how offenses co-occur in the backgrounds of homicide offenders and if identified groups of offenses reflect an underlying theoretical construct or theme; and to determine if offenders specialize in thematically similar offenses.
Design/methodology/approach
– The previous convictions of 122 single-victim homicide offenders were examined using smallest space analysis to identify groups of co-occurring offenses across offenders’ criminal histories.
Findings
– The results showed a thematic distinction between violent vs instrumental offenses and 84 percent of offenders specialized in offenses within a single dominant theme, suggesting that the framework can differentiate the majority of offenders’ criminal backgrounds. Possible sub-themes were identified that could suggest further demarcation of the themes and provide a more refined framework that may be of even greater utility in differentiating offenders.
Research limitations/implications
– This study utilized data from a single American city that may affect generalizability of the findings. The exclusion of a timeline for prior offending precludes consideration of offending escalation.
Originality/value
– The current study uses an alternative approach to conceptualize specialization according to how offenses co-occur in the backgrounds of homicide offenders. This approach is less restrictive than considering the offenses in isolation to one another and may be of greater utility in empirically derived offender profiling models. The thematic framework developed herein can act as a foundation for future studies.
... Criminal profiling and case linkage also share the assumption that offenders are consistent in the way that they behave across their crime series. This assumption has been termed the offender consistency hypothesis (7). However, although the two approaches share common features, it is important to recognize their differences. ...
This chapter begins by explaining the purposes of linking crimes committed by the same offender and what case linkage can add to a police investigation and prosecution. The various steps involved in the process of case linkage are explained. The assumptions of behavioral consistency and inter-individual behavioral variation, which case linkage rests on, are outlined, and the research that has begun to test these assumptions is reported. The effect of poor-quality data on the case linkage process and on empirical research is examined. Current methods and future developments for overcoming this difficulty are described. The obstacles to identifying linked crimes across police boundaries are discussed. Case linkage research and practice are compared with various criteria for expert evidence with promising results. The chapter closes by considering future avenues for research and practice in case linkage.
... The first assumption is known as the consistency hypothesis. This hypothesis asserts that an individual offender's behavior is relatively consistent from crime to crime (Canter, 1995). The second assumption is the distinctiveness hypothesis. ...
Probability-based methods have been shown to be useful in crime linkage analysis (the determination of which crimes were committed by the same offender). However, little consensus exists as to the value of specifically tailoring these methods to individual jurisdictions. Considering regional differences in routine activities, incorporating local information into crime linkage analysis may improve the effectiveness of linkage strategies. Using simulation methods, this study addresses the impact of regional variation in factors affecting criminal opportunity on crime linkage tools.
... In fact, delay is impossible, since the genii are already out of their respective bottles. Police forces are using offender profiling, with intermittent success and varying levels of satisfaction (Jackson et al., 1993;Canter, 1995). They are working towards precise identification of place (Read and Oldfield, 1995) and are developing strategies to prevent revictimisation. ...
the influence of research and development in police policy and practice. The objectives are to sponsor and undertake research and development to improve and strengthen the police service and to identify and disseminate good policing practice. The Crime Detection and Prevention Series follows on from the Crime Prevention Unit Papers, a series which has been published by the Home Office since 1983. The recognition that effective crime strategies will often involve both crime prevention and crime investigation, however, has led to the scope of this series being broadened. This new series will present research material on both crime prevention and crime detection in a way which informs policy and practice throughout the service. A parallel series of papers on resource management and organisational issues is also published by PRG, as is a perodical on policing research called ‘Focus’. ISBN 1-84082-089-6 Copies of this publication can be available in formats accessible to the visually impaired on request. ii Forewor d The development of repeat victimisation as a crime prevention strategy has come a long way since the start of the Kirkholt project in 1986. Some key milestones include the series of regional conferences organised jointly by the Home Office and ACPO in 1994, the adoption of repeat victimisation as a key performance indicator for the police, and the Biting Back project in Huddersfield. Our understanding of the implications of this crime pattern for policing and crime prevention continues to grow as we learn more about it, and now seems a timely point at which to summarise the current state of the art. Professor Ken Pease OBE is the leading authority in this country, if not the world, on repeat victimisation and policing. In this paper, he sets out what the accumulated research evidence to date means for the police in their operations against crime, and what the future holds for making best use of this knowledge.
... There are a number of ways in which such associations can be established, but whatever methods are used they will be more powerful in their application if they are part of a logical explanatory framework. The framework (or theoretical stance) adopted in the present paper (first outlined in Canter, 1989) may be characterised as a cognitive social one, in which the offender's interactions with others, on a daily basis, is seen as the key to his criminal behaviour. This is a generalisation of the hypotheses underlying the study by Silverman et al (1988). ...
... Useful distinctions can be drawn between these different activities, depending on whether the target of the examination is actually known. In the case of the examination of a crime scene to infer characteristics of the offender, often referred to as "profiling", (Canter, 1995) the main quest is to determine the identity of the perpetrator. But where the identity of the subject is known, as in the attempt to determine whether they died by accident or committed suicide, the objective is to reconstruct the mental state of the deceased. ...
... Behavioural consistency is generally defined as recurring behaviours displayed by an offender committing the same type of offence (Canter, 1995). Consistency involves both similarity and distinctiveness. ...
The present study investigated behavioural consistency across sexual offending. Variations in behavioural consistency may arise from an increased influence of situational and contextual aspects. However, there is paucity of research exploring variations in behavioural consistency relative to the temporal sequence of the behaviour (e.g., occurring prior to or during the offence). A sample of 49 male serial stranger sexual offenders responsible for 147 offences across four temporal phases of a sexual offence was used in the current study. For each offence, four crime phases were identified: 1) pre-crime, 2) victim selection, 3) approach, and 4) assault. Behavioural consistency within and across offence series were examined utilizing Jaccard’s Coefficient and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC). Results indicated a high degree of behavioural consistency across all crime aspects; behaviours that were more dependent on situational influences were inherently less predictable and demonstrated to be less consistent. Further, increased behavioural consistency was associated with offender characteristics of a more stable nature. The implications of these findings are discussed.
... The numerator, Pr(X i,j | H L ), is the likelihood of observing the crime data when the crimes are indeed linked. Thus, under the assumption of offender consistency (Canter, 1995), this will be large when both crimes have similar characteristics. On the other hand, the denominator Pr(X i,j | H U ) is the likelihood of observing the data when the crimes were committed by different offenders. ...
The object of this paper is to develop a statistical approach to criminal linkage analysis that discovers and groups crime events that share a common offender and prioritizes suspects for further investigation. Bayes factors are used to describe the strength of evidence that two crimes are linked. Using concepts from agglomerative hierarchical clustering, the Bayes factors for crime pairs are combined to provide similarity measures for comparing two crime series. This facilitates crime series clustering, crime series identification, and suspect prioritization. The ability of our models to make correct linkages and predictions is demonstrated under a variety of real-world scenarios with a large number of solved and unsolved breaking and entering crimes. For example, a naive Bayes model for pairwise case linkage can identify 82% of actual linkages with a 5% false positive rate. For crime series identification, 74%-89% of the additional crimes in a crime series can be identified from a ranked list of 50 incidents.
... Linkage analysis is grounded in psychology and is based upon the theoretical assumptions of behavioural consistency and behavioural variability . Behavioural consistency is derived from Canter's (1995) offender consistency hypothesis, in which it is assumed that the behaviour exhibited by a single offender will be constant across their offences. Alison, Bennell, Mokros, and Ormerod (2002) state that certain behavioural features will be repeated across a series of (the same category of) crimes and can therefore be indicative of a particular individual being responsible. ...
Linkage analysis has, albeit occasionally, been presented in courts across the world as evidence that a series of offences possess behavioural similarities and distinctiveness from other offences, meaning they have probably been committed by the same individual. It is therefore imperative to ascertain how linkage analysis is regarded by juries within the context of deliberations. Three groups of participants (N = 22) eligible for jury duty in England and Wales viewed a simulated rape and murder trial derived from an actual South African case. Linkage analysis formed the sole evidence against the defendant in the two later offences, although DNA matches and eyewitness identifications of the defendant were present in the two earlier offences. Participant deliberations were recorded and subjected to thematic analysis. Five themes were discovered: behavioural consistencies and inconsistencies, physical versus case linkage evidence, barriers to admissibility, potential uses of linkage analysis, and dependence of lay knowledge. Jurors' over-reliance on erroneous lay knowledge contributed to their conclusion that linkage analysis is, at present, unrepresentative evidence that cannot independently indicate a defendant's culpability. However, participants believed that linkage analysis could be a useful tool within investigations and, with further research evidence, in court in England and Wales. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... Canter (Canter, 1995;Canter & Youngs, 2009) discusses five theoretical approaches to the relationship between offender characteristics and actions: psychodynamic typologies, personality differences, career routes, socio-economic subgroups, and interpersonal narratives. A small number of studies in reviewed literature have attempted to link offender personality or traits to clusters of offence behaviours. ...
Although the potential usefulness of the offence action–offender characteristic (A–C) relationships is widely accepted and operational ‘offender profiling’ units now exist around the world, few such relationships have been empirically established. To explore this, the offending action patterns within 111 sexual assault cases from South Korea were coded in terms of 16 distinctive, objective crime scene criteria and subjected to an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis. Background psychiatric and general characteristics, Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI) scale scores, and criminal histories were described for each cluster. The cluster analysis drew attention to six clusters or behavioural profiles within the sexual assaults. Cluster 1 included serial offenders who aggressively raped and robbed adult women, with some pseudo-intimate sexual behaviour, in their homes. Two thirds of these offenders had histories of sexual assault. Cluster 2 included offenders who again targeted adults in their homes, but without pseudo-intimate sexual behaviour. Cluster 3 included offenders who targeted adults outdoors at night. These offenders showed high antisocial personality PAI scores and psychiatric histories of sexual sadism. Cluster 4 included unarmed offenders who targeted adults in their homes without robbery. These offenders often had psychiatric histories of depression. Cluster 5 included offenders who targeted adults outdoors with a blitz-style attack, and Cluster 6 included offenders who targeted minors outdoors, without weapons, using a confidence-trick style of approach. Paedophilia and histories of psychiatric treatment were prominent amongst these offenders. The results indicate therefore some of the key empirical relationships that future research may develop as the basis for sexual assault ‘profiles’. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... In that work he also argued that the coherence that studies identified in criminals' detailed actions implied a narrative. For example, in one of the earliest studies in this domain, Canter and Heritage (1990) indicated that themes may be discerned in the rapist's comments that suggest he thinks he has a relationship with the victim, or in the serial killer's dismemberment of his victims' bodies that shows a distant objectifying of them as part of the killer's own 'adventure' (Canter, 1995). These considerations were the first steps towards identifying what the different narratives might be for different offences. ...
Purpose. In commenting on Youngs and Canter's (2011) study, Ward (2011) raises concerns about offenders’ personal narratives and their link to self-concepts and identity. His comments relate to explorations of personal life stories rather than the narratives of actual crimes that are the focus of Youngs and Canter's (2011) study. The elaboration of this different focus helps to allay many of Ward's (2011) concerns and reveals further possibilities for developing the narrative approach within forensic psychology.
Methods. The focus on offenders’ accounts of a particular crime allows the development of a standard pro forma, the Narrative Role Questionnaire (NRQ), which deals with the roles a person thinks they played when committing a crime. These roles act as a summary of the criminal's offence narrative. Multivariate analysis of the NRQ clarifies the specific narrative themes explored by Youngs and Canter (2011).
Results. The examination of the components of the NRQ indicates that offence narratives encapsulate many psychological processes including thinking styles, self-concepts, and affective components. This allows the four narrative themes identified by Youngs and Canter to provide the basis for rich hypotheses about the interaction between the dynamics of personal stories and identity. The four narratives of criminal action also offer a foundation for understanding the particular, detailed styles of offending action and the immediate, direct processes that act to instigate and shape these.
Conclusion. These developments in our understanding of offence narratives generate fruitful research questions that bridge the concerns of investigative and correctional applications of narrative theory.
... The central assumptions of case linkage are behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness. The offender consistency hypothesis (Canter, 1995) postulates that offenders will behave consistently across their crimes, and behavioural distinctiveness assumes that the way an offender behaves is heterogeneous from the way in which other offenders commit crime (Goodwill & Alison, 2006;Salfati & Bateman, 2005). Taken together, these assumptions allow individual offenders' offences to be (1) linked together and (2) distinguished from offences committed by other offenders. ...
Case linkage uses crime scene behaviours to identify series of crimes committed by the same offender. This paper tests the underlying assumptions of case linkage (behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness) by comparing the behavioural similarity of linked pairs of offences (i.e. two offences committed by the same offender) with the behavioural similarity of unlinked pairs of offences (i.e. two offences committed by different offenders). It is hypothesised that linked pairs will be more behaviourally similar than unlinked pairs thereby providing evidence for the two assumptions. The current research uses logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses to explore which behaviours can be used to reliably link personal robbery offences using a sample of 166 solved offences committed by 83 offenders. The method of generating unlinked pairs is then refined to reflect how the police work at a local level, and the success of predictive factors re‐tested. Both phases of the research provide evidence of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness with linked pairs displaying more similarity than unlinked pairs across a range of behavioural domains. Inter‐crime distance and target selection emerge as the most useful linkage factors with promising results also found for temporal proximity and control. No evidence was found to indicate that the property stolen is useful for linkage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... Offender profiling, an aspect of what is now commonly known as Behavioural or Criminal Investigative Advice (Alison, Goodwill, Almond, van den Heuvel, & Winter, 2010), attempts to infer or predict offender characteristics, such as age (Goodwill & Alison, 2007) and prior criminal antecedents (Goodwill, Alison, & Beech, 2009), from crime scene information (e.g., offender behaviour). The relationship between crime scene information or actions (A) and an offender's characteristics (C) is colloquially known as the 'A to C, or canonical, relationship' (Canter, 1995). The theoretical relationship between A and C is often *Correspondence should be addressed to Alasdair M. Goodwill referred to as homology 1 (e.g., Woodhams & Toye, 2007): the way in which a person commits a crime (e.g., their behaviour or actions) should be homologous (or congruent) with who they are in general (e.g., their characteristics). ...
Case linkage or linkage analysis refers to the process of determining whether or not there are discrete connections between two or more previously unrelated cases through crime scene analysis. It involves establishing and comparing the physical evidence, victimology, crime scene characteristics, motivation, modus operandi (MO), and signature behaviors of each of the cases under review. It is seen in two different contexts: investigative and forensic. In investigative contexts, it is used to assist law enforcement by helping to establish where to apply investigative efforts and resources. In forensic contexts, it is employed to assist the court with determining whether or not there is sufficiently distinctive behavioral evidence to connect crimes together in their commission.
When the physical evidence in a given case is insufficient, or when the law allows it, behavioral evidence may be employed as a secondary means of addressing the question of case linkage. However, there is no evidence or research to suggest that behavioral alone may be used like fingerprints or DNA with respect to determining with any certainty that the same person must be responsible for two or more crimes. Furthermore, while there may be general or thematic similarities between some cases, it is the nature of the dissimilarities that are of greater weight and importance to rendering final linkage conclusions. Linkage analysis efforts that fail to account for dissimilarity, focusing only on similarities, should be considered inadequate at best, if not biased.
The author and contributors remain concerned about the reliability of many available methods of criminal profiling—and the overall absence of integrated or trans-disciplinary thinking among practitioners. To say nothing of the absence of good scientific practice. This has to do with the fact that nomothetic profilers habitually isolate individual behavior and then interpret it out of context. Further, they tend not to explain, let alone understand, the differences between theories and conclusions.
This tends to be a reflection of the close association between law enforcement and criminal profiling. Law enforcement investigators applying profiling techniques either do not have a strong scientific background or suffer from strong institutional and cultural biases. This allows them to weave their heuristic knowledge (e.g., biases, prejudices, and personal values) relating to crime and criminals into the cloth of official interpretations—as though they are conclusive and relevant when often they are neither.
These nomothetic methods include Criminal Investigative Analysis, Diagnostic Evaluations, Investigation Psychology, Geographical Profiling, and Phantom Methods associated with the political aspirations of fraudulent practitioners.
A disproportionate number of crimes are attributable to a small fraction of criminal actors. Focusing resources to apprehend or disrupt serial (and recidivist) offenders is therefore well justified in terms of impact and societal benefit. Crime analysis methods can reveal problem sets through traditional techniques, e.g. ‘hotspotting’, which can then be further illuminated through intelligence methodologies – ultimately yielding specific recommendations for action. This chapter discusses a model that is demonstrably effective across different criminal domains. The model combines an all-source approach to forensic intelligence (FORINT), integrated into which is a geographic profiling (GP) capability. This presents an efficacious law enforcement tool to counter serial offending. FORINT draws upon scientific and technical information and expertise in addition to criminal indices, highlighting convergences (e.g. of recovered physical traces) between individual cases. Linkage analysis can be weighted through crime analytic approaches (e.g. diagnosticity of a particular method-of-entry modus operandi). Once a crime series is identified, spatiotemporal factors can be analysed through GP, delineating a base of operations that can inform enquires, prioritisation and resource deployment. Outcomes range from target prioritisation at the tactical level, through to recommendations for disruption/deterrence at a strategic level.
Research has shown that the majority of offences are committed by a minority of offenders. Therefore, any method to help identify prolific/serial offenders is of benefit to the police. Behavioural Crime Linkage (BCL) is a method of identifying series of offences committed by the same person(s) using the behaviour displayed during the offence. This can include, but is not limited to, target selection, control and weapon use, approach, property stolen, and temporal and spatial trends. This chapter will explain the theoretical framework for BCL and common methods for testing the accuracy of this method (e.g. logistic regression, Receiver Operating Characteristic
). The chapter will then outline how BCL has been applied in robbery. It will discuss how the success of BCL is influenced by factors such as type of location (e.g. urban versus rural) and group offending
(e.g. can you link offences committed by groups?). This chapter will draw heavily on the PhD research of the author but will cite other literature (e.g. evidence to support the theoretical framework for BCL) where relevant.KeywordsBehavioural crime linkageCrime linkageRobbery
In the decade since the publication of the first edition of The Cambridge Handbook of Forensic Psychology, the field has expanded into areas such as social work and education, while maintaining the interest of criminal justice researchers and policy makers. This new edition provides cutting-edge and comprehensive coverage of the key theoretical perspectives, assessment methods, and interventions in forensic psychology. The chapters address substantive topics such as acquisitive crime, domestic violence, mass murder, and sexual violence, while also exploring emerging areas of research such as the expansion of cybercrime, particularly child sexual exploitation, as well as aspects of terrorism and radicalisation. Reflecting the global reach of forensic psychology and its wide range of perspectives, the international team of contributors emphasise diversity and cross-reference between adults, adolescents, and children to deliver a contemporary picture of the discipline.
Investigative Psychology (IP) as an empirical field of study that focusses on the psychological input to the full range of issues that relate to the investigation of crime. IP focusses on three overall processes present in any investigation that can be improved by psychological study; 1) Retrieving information from the crime scene for the purpose of analysis and research; 2) Making decisions during criminal investigations; and 3) Analysing criminal behaviour. For this last component, three general interlinked areas have been the focus of research: individual differentiation which aims to establish differences between the behavioral actions of offenders and identify subgroups of crime scene types; behavioural consistency which aims to understand an offender’s behavioural consistency across a series of crimes; and inferences about offender characteristics, which aims to establish the nature of the consistency between the most likely characteristics of an offender based on the way an offender acts at the time of the crime, and is at the core of offender profiling.
Three general interlinked areas have been the focus of offender profiling research: individual differentiation (establishing differences between the behavioral actions of crime scene types), behavioral consistency (understanding behavioral patterns across a series of crimes), and offender profiling (linking sub-types of crime scene patterns to the most likely characteristics of an offender). Taken together, these three areas form the empirical basis necessary for use in criminal investigations. However, studies supporting inferences about offender characteristics have to date been the least developed in the field of offender profiling. For profiling to be fully useful to investigations, a clear understanding of three main elements is crucial to fully develop, notably (1) what individual crime scene characteristics are the most salient to use; (2) what elements of the full series behavioral developmental pattern are important to understand as an additional factor; and (3) what offender characteristics are the most empirically robust to focus on for investigative use. The current study examines 80 series of serial homicide, involving 302 crime scenes. Using the key elements of an offender’s crime scene behavioral patterns shown to help link and differentiate crime scenes and series, the current study linked these to sub-sets of different offender characteristics, identified as most useful for investigations. These included such characteristics such as age at the start of the series, criminal history specialization, general history of violence, mental health history, and relationship to the victims in the series. Results are discussed in the context of implications for research and practical applications in serial crime investigation and offender profiling.
While the phenomenon has been researched for more than half a century, the vast majority of studies concentrate on manifestations of psychopathy in offenders already in the criminal justice system. However, both academics and practitioners in the field agree that psychopathic behaviors differ from those of the general population (Hare, 1996; O’Toole & Häkkänen‐Nyholm, 2012), ergo, crimes committed by psychopaths may reveal distinguishing features from those committed by nonpsychopaths. Despite the potentially rich source of data provided by crime scenes, the question of whether psychopathy can be deduced from offenders’ crime scene actions is underresearched, with most studies focusing on motive and victimology. Nonetheless, some recent studies have examined crime scene behaviors, suggesting certain indicators of psychopathy with implications for offense inquiry. The chapter reviews research efforts to establish offending patterns related to psychopathy, examining qualitative differences between psychopaths and nonpsychopaths in terms of violence, victim choice and other offense variables, arguing that since psychopathy is underpinned by a constellation of affective, interpersonal, and behavioral factors, key differences in crime scene actions should be discernible, serving value for police investigations and onward criminal justice protocols. Mindful of benefits crime scene insights bring to investigative procedures, the chapter presents an Investigative Psychology approach, with its focus on the relationship between specific offense actions and offender characteristics. Application of Investigative Psychology methodology and modeling are discussed with respect to advancing the literature on crime scene indicators of psychopathy, and associations between offenders’ interpersonal style and actions during offense commission are suggested with a view to more targeted future research.
The study of offense narratives emphasizes the agency of the offender which brings psychology closer to law. As an effort to create a standardized and quantitative method to evaluate offender narratives, Youngs and Canter developed the Narrative Roles Questionnaire (NRQ) based on the content analyses of the crime narratives of offenders in UK prisons. The current study aims to investigate the applicability of offense narrative roles framework among Turkish offenders. The application of the offense narrative roles model to a non-Western country is the first step toward the acceptance of criminal narrative theory as a universal explanation of criminal behavior. A translation of the NRQ was administered to 468 Turkish male inmates who have committed a wide range of offenses from fraud to murder. The results of an MDS analysis yielded four roles, namely Professional, Revenger, Hero, and Victim, echoing the original formulation proposed by Youngs and Canter. The reliability coefficients of scales derived for these roles were all at desired levels. The results support the applicability of the NRQ framework in a non-English context.
Sex workers as a group are one of the more common targets in serial homicide, yet the most likely to go unsolved. Part of the reason for this is the difficulty in linking individual crime scenes to a series, especially in those series where offenders not only target sex worker victims but also target non-sex worker victims. Inconsistencies in both victim targeting and behaviors engaged in across series add to the difficulties of linking and solvability in these types of crimes. The current study aimed to add to the current body of literature on serial crime linkage by examining not only the most salient behavioral indicators useful for crime scene classification of serial homicides that involve sex worker victims but also examine the trajectories of behavioral change that can help link apparently inconsistent crime scenes and proposes the new Model for the Analysis of Trajectories and Consistency in Homicide (MATCH). The study examines 83 homicide series, including 44 (53%) series where all victims were sex workers and 39 (47%) series that included a mix of sex workers and non-sex worker victims. Using the MATCH system allowed for the majority of series to be classified to a dominant trajectory pattern, over half as many as a traditional consistency analysis that focusses on behavioral similarity matching. Results further showed that Sex Worker Victim series were almost three times more consistent across their series than Mixed-Victim series, not only in victim selection but also in the overall behavioral patterns. Findings are discussed in line with theoretical and psychological issues relating to understanding the nature of behavioral consistency and the importance of going beyond simple matching toward a model that allows for the identification of consistency in seemingly inconsistent series, as well as investigative implications relating to linking serial crimes.
In the 4 decades since offender profiling (OP) was established, hundreds of journal articles, books, book chapters, reports, and magazine articles have been published on the topic, and the technique has been used by countless law enforcement agencies around the globe. However, despite the popularity and extensive literature published on OP, very little is known about its evolution, current state, or findings of the field to date. Therefore, this study presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of 426 publications on OP from 1976 through 2016. Results of this systematic review suggest that there have been considerable improvements in the scientific rigor and self-assessment being conducted in the discipline, although in total, few studies have used a strong empirical approach to develop new profiles. Even fewer evaluations of the effectiveness of OP have been conducted. The first summary of offender profiles proposed for major crimes in OP literature is also presented, with results indicating some recurrent themes in profiles, but wide variations in the number, name, and description of the profiles often found. A meta-analysis of case linkage analysis research indicates that this area is statistically sophisticated, and has yielded moderate to strong accuracy rates for linking crimes to a single offender. Finally, the first analysis of the most prolific authors, researchers, departments, and outlets for OP research, and the methods, approach, and most cited publications in OP are identified. Suggestions for future research on OP and the potential impact that this may have on policy and practice are also discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
Evidence suggests that the majority of crime is committed by a minority of prolific serial offenders who pose a substantial risk to society. Behavioural Crime Linkage (BCL) has been proposed as one method to more effectively bring serial offenders to justice. BCL is a form of behavioural analysis that seeks to identify similarities in offender crime scene behaviour across two or more crimes so that evidence collected across multiple investigations can be combined, and thus helps the police to work in a more efficient way (thereby saving time and money). This chapter will introduce the concept of BCL, describe the different scenarios in which it is used during live police investigations, and briefly discuss empirical research in the area. The chapter will also explore how BCL relates to the concept of primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention, how BCL fits within the wider criminal justice process, and how BCL can support the work of other criminal justice agencies.
Objectives: The present study aims to extend current research on how offenders’ modus operandi (MO) can be used in crime linkage, by investigating the possibility to automatically estimate offenders’ risk exposure and level of pre-crime preparation for residential burglaries. Such estimations can assist law enforcement agencies when linking crimes into series and thus provide a more comprehensive understanding of offenders and targets, based on the combined knowledge and evidence collected from different crime scenes.
Methods: Two criminal profilers manually rated offenders’ risk exposure and level of pre-crime preparation for 50 burglaries each. In an experiment we then analyzed to what extent 16 machine-learning algorithms could generalize both offenders’ risk exposure and preparation scores from the criminal profilers’ ratings onto 15,598 residential burglaries. All included burglaries contain structured and feature-rich crime descriptions which learning algorithms can use to generalize offenders’ risk and preparation scores from.
Results: Two models created by Naïve Bayes-based algorithms showed best performance with an AUC of 0.79 and 0.77 for estimating offenders' risk and preparation scores respectively. These algorithms were significantly better than most, but not all, algorithms. Both scores showed promising distinctiveness between linked series, as well as consistency for crimes within series compared to randomly sampled crimes.
Conclusions: Estimating offenders' risk exposure and pre-crime preparation can complement traditional MO characteristics in the crime linkage process. The estimations are also indicative to function for cross-category crimes that otherwise lack comparable MO. Future work could focus on increasing the number of manually rated offenses as well as fine-tuning the Naïve Bayes algorithm to increase its estimation performance.
[A self-archived pre-print manuscript is available online. See comment below for the link. ]
The most publicised reminders of inaccurate risk classification by police officers dealing with missing person’s reports come from cases where the missing person was presumed to have runaway but was later found to have met with foul play. Fortunately, such occurrences are extremely rare. Despite this, there is still enormous pressure on the officer taking the initial missing persons report to ask the right questions, assess possible risk factors, make a judgement about what may have happened to the missing person and then allocate appropriate resources—all within a timely manner. For all police officers, and for every missing person report made, the task is complex. No research has been conducted in the area of misclassifications of risk when a new missing person report is received, so the true numbers remain unknown. Given the high numbers of missing persons reports that are made on a daily basis, this chapter will work towards helping all police officers make an informed and hopefully confident assessment of risk that has a high degree of reliability.
The application of the scientific method creates two different types of knowledge: idiographic and nomothetic. Nomothetic (group) study results in knowledge about the characteristics of groups, which is not only useful but also necessary when trying to define groups, solve group-related problems, or generate initial theories about issues in specific cases. Nomothetic offender profiles, therefore, are characteristics developed by studying groups of offenders. There are four main types of nomothetic profiling: criminal investigative analysis (CIA), diagnostic evaluation (DE), investigative psychology (IP), and geographic profiling. The FBI's profiling method, CIA, is the most commonly known nomothetic method of criminal profiling. Diagnostic evaluations are not a single profiling method or representatives of a unified approach. They are services offered by medical and mental-health professionals who rely on clinical experience when giving profiling opinions about offenders, crime scenes, or victims. DE profiles are commonly offered as a footnote to primary reports, such as mental-health evaluations, personality inventories, or autopsy findings. IP purports to cover all aspects of psychology that are relevant to the conduct of criminal and civil investigations. It involves research on various offender groups. Commonly, the result is a profile that is more or less a literature review of published studies examining ostensibly similar cases. Geographic profiling focuses on determining the likely location of the offender's home, place of work, or some other anchor point. It assumes that an offender's home, or other locations the offender is familiar with, can be determined from the crime locations. It is based on theories and assumptions built from group studies of offenders that do not necessarily hold true in individual cases.
The existing research on the crime and murder rate in Trinidad and Tobago all indicate the same contributory factors, the low detection rate, the proliferation of illegal firearms, the gang activity in Laventille and environs and the Government funding of gangs through social programmes for the unemployed. Despite the dismally low detection rate of less than 10%, little research has been conducted on the murders and murder victims that could provide intelligence to direct police investigations and prevention measures. Empirical evidence has shown that crime scene information as well as information on victim/offender interaction can assist the police force in ongoing investigations and crime prevention (Burgess and Roberts, 2010; Canter, 2000). To date however the police service does not consistently seek and record these types of information in any structured way, far less analyse information to identify trends to assist the police force. This study seeks to address this by using police records to analyse murders committed during 2008 to 2011 in the capital city of Port of Spain, the area with the highest concentration of murders in the nation. Analysis was conducted on crime scene information and murder victim characteristics in three populations (a) the total victim population as well as its subgroups (b) gang-related victims and (c) non-gang related victims. Demographic, temporal, geographic and crime scene patterns were identified. The key findings revealed that the typical profile of a murder in Port of Spain was that of a male victim of African descent, between the ages of 16 to 35 years, who lived and died in East Dry River or Laventille after being shot by a perpetrator/s with gang-related motives and remains undetected. This research also indicated that spatial profiling of gang-related murders in East Dry River or Laventille, combined with records and analysis of the daily actions and interactions of gang members, could be useful in directing investigations in gang-related murders. In conclusion, if law enforcement and government agencies in Trinidad and Tobago want to increase the detection rates, a new standard in recording and conducting murder investigations should be embraced.
PurposeContinued debate surrounds whether or not offender profiling is a valid practice. Critics have mainly contended that few studies have produced clear, quantifiable, evidence of a link between crime scene actions (A) and offender characteristics (C). Arguing that this is due to a failure to study offender actions as part of a dynamic decision-making process, this study sought to identify action phases that are representative of the general decisions an offender must make during the commission of a sexual offence, and relate these decisions to known characteristics of the offender (C).Methods
Two-step cluster analyses were performed on data from 347 stranger sexual offences, committed by 69 serial sexual offenders, by action phase: (1) search; (2) selection; (3) approach; (4) assault; and also for an offender's (5) characteristics. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was then utilized to investigate the inter-relationship of action phase clusters and offender characteristics.ResultsThe MCA results indicated that specific behavioural macro-clusters formed across the various actions phase and offender characteristic clusters in a meaningful way. Additionally, the macro-clusters themselves corresponded to the extant literature on sexual assault, revealing several points of congruence between offender crime scene actions and offender characteristics.Conclusion
The results of the study demonstrate that when crime scene behaviours are interpreted within a dynamic decision-making process (i.e., utilizing action phases), reliable and valid empirical links may potentially be drawn between an offenders behavioural actions and their characteristics.
The aim of the study was to identify offending types in a sample of difficult-to-solve Finnish homicides and to associate these offending types with situational variables and offender characteristics. The rationale for choosing such a group of cases was that it is in these cases that offender profiling is most likely to be applied and therefore the statistical models should also be produced using these cases. All cases of homicide that occurred between 1991 and 2001 were searched from the electronic crime data base of the police. This resulted in a total of 1017 solved cases. Using a predetermined set of criteria for how difficult the cases were to solve, a sample of 71 separate cases with 93 offender-victim pairings remained. A content analysis using a list of dichotomous variables on offense and offender characteristics was performed. An automated item selection under the non-parametric item response theory (IRT) model (aka Mokken scaling) was conducted. Ten scales with high internal consistencies were identified: five of the scales were instrumental in that the corresponding behaviors were either related to resource acquisition (e.g. homicide in relation to robbery) or sexual motivation (e.g. rape that turned into a homicide). The other five scales denoted either various facets of expressive violence (e.g. jealousy- motivated homicide) or were related to antisocial behavior (e.g. execution-style homicide). A number of plausible and substantial associations were found between the scale scores on the one hand and situational variables and offender characteristics on the other hand. Using logistic regression models based on these scales, we achieved improvements over using the baseline frequency in predicting of situational variables and offender characteristics. The results suggest that difficult-to-solve homicides form a distinct group of homicides with clear subgroups, thus making the generalizability of findings from non-selected samples doubtful. Also, it is possible to use statistical models to predict offender characteristics in these cases lending support to the process of offender profiling.
PurposeBehavioural crime linkage is underpinned by two assumptions: (a) that offenders exhibit some degree of consistency in the way they commit offences (their modus operandi [MO]); and, (b) that offenders can be differentiated on the basis of their offence behaviour. The majority of existing studies sample at most three crimes from an offender's series of detected crimes and do not examine whether patterns differ across offenders. Here, we examine patterns observed across the entire detected series of each sampled offender, and assess how homogeneous patterns are across offenders. Methods
Using a non-parametric resampling approach, we analyse the entire crime series of 153 prolific burglars to determine if they exhibit consistency and specificity in the way they commit offences. ResultsFindings suggest that offenders exhibit consistency in the way they commit offences. With respect to specificity, our results suggest that patterns are not homogeneous across offenders or the type of MO considered – some offenders exhibit more specificity than do others, and offenders are more distinctive for some aspects of their MO (particularly spatial choices) than they are for others. Conclusions
The findings provide support for the underlying principles of crime linkage, but suggest that some aspects of an offender's MO either conform to a common preference, or are perhaps more influenced by situational factors than stable scripted preferences. That some offenders fail to demonstrate sufficient specificity for accurate linkage suggests that identifying which crimes are likely to be the work of offenders who display more specificity a priori constitutes one challenge for future research of this kind.
In preparation for the writing of this essay I undertook a daunting task. I dug out many of the environmental psychology papers I have written over the last 25 years and looked at them to see what assumptions underlay those papers. The experience produced a real surprise.
Purpose. The release on licence of prisoners who have committed serious violent and/or sexual offences requires rigorous risk assessment and risk management. This study evaluates the ADViSOR project, designed to examine the contribution of prison behaviour monitoring to community supervision of a sample of the highest risk offenders released in England and Wales under Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements (MAPPA).
Method. The offence-related behaviour of a total group (n= 25) of MAPPA prisoners in one prison, due for release in the following year to two adjacent probation trust areas, was monitored. Their behaviours in the community were followed up for 1 year. A comparison group (n= 36) was formed of the total number of MAPPA prisoners released from prisons nationally to the same two probation trusts.
Results. The frequencies of ADViSOR negative behaviours in prison and the community were strongly correlated, rs (25) = .55, p= .004, as were positive behaviours, rs (25) = .56, p= .004. No statistically significant correlations were found either under usual MAPPA processes in the ADViSOR prison or comparison group prisons. The frequency of ADViSOR negative behaviours statistically significantly predicted, with 92% accuracy, the offenders who would reoffend or be recalled to prison (n= 8). Statistically significant similarities in types of behaviour were also identified.
Conclusion. Results are discussed in terms of the contribution of behavioural monitoring to risk prediction with high-risk offenders, consistency of cross-situational behaviours, and implications for policy and practice.
This study examined the direct and moderator effects of number of perpetrators and gender of victim on interpersonal behaviour in stranger rape. Crime scene behaviours representative of hostility, involvement, control, and offender penetration in rape were examined for 496 UK, police‐recorded cases of stranger rape. Cases were grouped according to victim gender (male or female) and number of perpetrators (lone or multiple). This resulted in four groups (lone female, lone male, multiple female, and multiple male) with 124 cases in each. Binary logistic regression and one‐way analysis of variance were used to investigate the relationships between the two predictor variables and 11 criterion variables.
Significant direct effects of number of perpetrators were found whereby multiple perpetrator offences were more likely to involve violence and less likely to involve involvement interactions than lone perpetrator offences. Significant direct effects of victim gender were also found whereby male victims were more likely than female victims to experience hostile interactions and be threatened with a weapon and were less likely to experience offender penetration and involvement interactions. Significant crossover interactions were also found for four hostility variables. The utility of the findings are discussed in relation to crime prevention, victim support, and offender intervention. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The present study examines consistency of crime behaviour among 347 sexual assaults committed by 69 serial sex offenders. This individual behaviour approach—the so-called signature approach—reveals which features of crime behaviour are consistent across a series and which features are not. The consistency scores were calculated using the Jaccard's coefficient. The results of this study indicate that there are some crime features of a serial sexual assault that can be useful for the purpose of linkage. Another important finding is that consistency scores for different variables within the same category can differ substantially. Moreover, serial sex offenders are more likely to be consistent in their environmental crime features when they are also consistent in their behavioural features, and vice versa. Serial sex offenders are also more likely to be consistent in the behavioural features of their assaults as the crime series gets longer. The implications of the results are discussed in relation to both research and practise
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