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Neuroscience:
fMRI Showing Neuronal Activity
(c) Gerck Research
One problem: the
fish was long
dead.
Why?
an fMRI
experiment can
be analyzed in
nearly 7000
ways –and the
results could
vary widely.
Ed Gerck, Ph.D.
UCSanDiego|Extension|OSHER
Winter 2017 Program
January 19, 2017
Science and the Search for Truth:
The Scientific Method
Ed Gerck
ed@gerck.com
Ph.D., Physics
Max Planck Institute for Quantum Optics
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet, Muenchen
© Gerck Research, 2013-17
+The Brownian Motion Experiment
Science is unitary (one thing)
(c) Gerck Research
Biology Physics
Chemistry Mathematics
•1827 Biology observation:
Brownian motion
•80 years later: Physics (Einstein)
explained it.
•It was fundamental to all
Science: existence of molecules
(DNA), atoms and particles.
Scientists
Open questions from Biology:
•Life
•Origin of Life (OoL)
•Mind
•Consciousness
Why Biology?
There is a big problem:
“It can be proven that most claimed research
findings [in Biology, Neuroscience, Genetics
and Biomedicine] are false.”
Ioannidis, John P. A. “Why Most Published Research Findings
Are False.” PLoS Medicine 2.8 (2005): e124. PMC.
US National Institutes Of Health (NIH): Hard to
reproduce at least 3/4 of published biomedical
findings.
(c) Gerck Research
The Devil
Prof. Ioannidis (Stanford)
•Powerful new experimental methods and techniques
•Becoming less authority-based, more evidence-based
•More dialogue between theory and experiment
•Going from ‘soft science’ to ‘hard science’ in Biology,
Neuroscience, Genetics, Biomedicine, etc.
What people think…
(c) Gerck Research
Science knows how people are likely to think.
1. Can history change?
Yes. New facts, new connections, new theories, …
2. What is a fact?
Something that you are willing to believe. A fact is a bias.
Google knows what people are likely to think before they
think it. Bias (aka prejudice) is a pre-set reaction.
3. What is the value of 00 (zero to the power of zero)?
In US middle- and high school: undefined. In the university: 1
4. What do all living things need?
In middle- and high school: water. However, a tardigrade can live
even in space. How about Mars? What does it mean to be alive?
Brownian Motion (1827)
Robert Brown: botanist, microscope pioneer
(c) Gerck Research
Brown’s experiment:
Pollen grains in water
Brown observed:
Flow, jittery movement
From observation:
Fact: The pollen particles
move independently,
they are alive.
What does it mean
to be alive?
Where most people think we live
(c) Gerck Research
La Jolla
Where few people think we live
(c) Gerck Research
How did we find this out?
© Gerck Research
How could you find this out?
(a) Ask me
(b) Survey
(c) Observation
(d) Guessing
(e) Making an educated guess
(f) Asking someone else
(g) Looking it up
(h) Critical thinking
(i) It is something else…
How did Copernicus, Galileo, Kepler, Tesla, Leibniz,
Newton, Einstein, and Feynman find this out?
How Science Works…
Your first jump will last 37 seconds. You are a Ph.D.
student in a 1964 lecture by Prof. Feynman.
Your second jump will last 13 seconds, to 1981.
Feynman gives you a missing clue for the ‘64 lecture.
In 1965, Feynman received the Physics Nobel Prize
for advances in quantum mechanics.
© Gerck Research
Quantum Jumps Ahead!
(c) Gerck Research
1st Jump: For 37 seconds you are a Ph.D. student in a …
1964 lecture by Prof. Feynman
OK, let’s try …
AND the blind man
says …
I GUESS That
Is a SNAKE!
It did not work… let’s guess again… and again… that goes slowly…
Guessing can also create serious snakes… I mean mistakes!
So, what is Feynman talking about?
© Gerck Research
I’ll make a guess now…
Feynman explained the Scientific Method as follows:
Guess it Compute Consequences Compare with Experiments (Nature)
What’s in that Guess?
… the question that started the research
… beauty
… simplicity
… not arbitrary
… very determined forms
… from scientific principles
... a testable relationship
This is not a guess!
Frame
What is Feynman talking about?
© Gerck Research
That “Guess” includes a Question, a Frame, and a Hypothesis.
17 years later: play the missing clue
Can you think of
other Frames?
What’s this?
Testable Relationship
Must be testable and not only by you (repeatable).
Tests can be done by reason and/or evidence.
NO need to include why (cause-effect), how (mechanism), or equation.
Works with BIG DATA (patterns, correlation).
Examples: The sky is often blue at noon.
Testable: yes
Relationship: sky, color, time, correlation
An electric current creates a magnetic field.
Testable: yes
Relationship: electric current, magnetic field, cause-effect
One is a positive number.
Testable: ? Relationship: ?
(c) Gerck Research
Scientific Hypothesis: (hypothesis)
a testable relationship
How Science Works
“It’s very easy to have a good hypothesis. With some
training you can have ten for breakfast!”
Well, it’s actually not so easy but …suppose you have one.
You test your hypothesis through the Scientific Method.
You now have a result…
Your hypothesis either… worked… or not.
This may surprise you… how Science works, either result
is useful! There are no “good” or “bad” guys.
(c) Gerck Research Let’s see …
The Scientific Method
© Gerck Research
Hypothesis: a testable relationship, including null (no relationship).
Step 7
+
warp
8. Choose reality mode:
S = Subjective
I = Intersubjective
O = Objective
A = Abstract
…
1. State the
question and
frame.
2. Formulate a
fitting hypothesis.
3. Determine the
consequences.
4. Test: compare
with experiments.
5. Interpret results.
6. Goal: prove the
hypothesis.
=====
No single description, but
same method.
7. What if I am wrong?
A
O
I
S
I
The Scientific Hypothesis
Where does a new hypothesis come from?
Dreams (Prof. Kekulé, benzene structure), new questions, new
observations and, often, the unexpected.
What is a scientific hypothesis?
A testable relationship.
Example: An electric current creates a magnetic field.
•MUST be able to determine the consequences.
•NO need to include why, how, or equations.
•AVOID using only a guess (why?) or “educated guess” (why?).
What can I use to test (experiment) a scientific hypothesis?
Reason and evidence. The null case (there is no relationship)
must also be considered.
In summary…
…What if I am wrong?
April/2014 © Gerck Research
In Science, a NO is an answer. NO = “not this way”
Think of the discovery of Penicillin… a beautiful
failure! Test and, rather than discard, recycle the
work of each other.
We used Feynman’s work today and he helped us a
lot, also when he blundered.
…What if I am right?
standing on the
shoulders
of giants…
We can see further by
…What if I am right?
(c) Gerck Research
Not such a big deal. Why not?
In Science, a YES is an answer but is not
Truth.
Because of the success of Science, people
think that Science is about proving Truth.
It is not.
What is a YES then?
YES = NYF (not yet false)
In Science, a YES is understood as “not yet false”. And a NO is
“not a YES”.
This is called refutability. A YES or NO result may no longer fit the
class of other results, or may be seen as incomplete or invalid.
Refutability in Physics (experimental Science):
“A single experiment can prove me wrong”. Albert Einstein
Refutability in Mathematics (formal Science):
•1 used to be a prime number; 2 was not always a prime.
•‘1+1=2’ is an invalid mathematical expression for a C compiler.
•'=' is now known to have at least five different definitions!
NYF means that it may one day be considered false…
… and this is How Science Works...
(c) Gerck Research
How some people see Science…
© Gerck Research
.
Bad guys
new
rule
break
This is how
it works!
No, it’s not!
The “good guys” find out how things work
and the “bad guys” break it…
How other people see Science…
© Gerck Research
The “bad guys” make mistakes in finding out how
things work and the “good guys” fix them…
.
Good guys
new
rule
break
This is how
it works!
No, it’s not!
How Science Works
© Gerck Research
Science is a way of thinking!
1. Use the Scientific Method to find or break rules
2. Accept rule as “not yet false” instead of “true”
3. Keep asking… keep testing…
.
- Runs on Hypothesis
not on observation alone
(Newton’s mistake)
- Running > 2,300 years!
- Keeps Evolving
- Open and Fair
- Self-Correcting
- Full Recycling
-Open-ended …
(testable relationship)
true
Scientific Method correct mistakes
accept
rule
break
Hypothesis
false
not yet false
Brownian Motion (1827)
Robert Brown & The Scientific Method
(c) Gerck Research
Brown’s experiment:
Pollen grains in water
Brown observed:
Flow, jittery movement
In still water:
Pollen grains rupture and
release motile particles,
with jittery movement.
Brown’s 1st Hypothesis :
The pollen particles move
because they are alive.
Motility Life
What does it mean to be alive?
Brownian Motion
(c) Gerck Research
Brown checked it:
NULL Hypothesis Test
In still water:
Sand, sterile powders
Brown observed:
Motility, similar jittery
movement.
He concluded (1829):
The pollen particles were
NOT alive.
Brown did not provide a
theory to explain
the motion.
Solution (physics):
In 1905 by A. Einstein.
Verified by Perrin (1908).
Science is Interdisciplinary
(c) Gerck Research
The Brownian Motion Experiment:
From Botany to Biology, Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics,
Engineering, Economics, and Wall Street, with a Nobel
Prize.
Physics Nobel Prize 1926: Jean Perrin
Confirmed Einstein’s Brownian Motion theory of 1905,
evidencing theoretically and experimentally the existence
of the molecule.
Aeronautical Engineering:
Explains how airplanes can fly and the laws that govern
their motion (you can DIY this now)
Summary
(c) Gerck Research
Science is a good, fair, effective way to find Truth. A common
and costly error is to think that in science a YES means “true”
and a NO means “false.”
With the growing importance of science and scientific
arguments in today’s society, it is critical to avoid this and
other pitfalls, in order to more effectively apply and contrast
scientific principles in career and life.
My next OSHER 2017 Lecture
(c) Gerck Research
February 16. The Big Idea in Physics and Science: The Absolute
The next lecture is about the “Big Idea” in Science, discussing the
key that may ultimately solve the irreproducibility crisis in the
biosciences, improving personal and public healthcare decisions.
This two-part UCSD/OSHER lecture series demonstrate s that it is time
for everyone —researchers, students, citizen-scientists, and lifelong
learners —to understand more deeply how science works in
exploring the limits of knowledge and life, including new foundations
for research and verification.
We saw new things…
…
(c) Gerck Research
cause
effect
guess
scientific
method
theory
law
BIG DATA
how science
works
frame
hypothesis
Universe
La Jolla
correlation
question
how?
why?
…
Copernicus
Galileo
Newton
Einstein
Feynman
…
More friends…
patterns
Brownian
motion
Go And Explore…
© Gerck Research
Ed Gerck
ed@gerck.com
Ph.D., Physics
Max Planck Institute for Quantum Optics
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet, Muenchen
