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Educational convergence and socio-economic determinants: A spatial analysis from moroccan data
Abstract
Educational Convergence and Socio-Economic Determinants: a Spatial Analysis from Moroccan Data
Bringing levels of economic development closer together is a major concern for regional policies in Morocco. This problem manifests itself in particular in the existence of a large number of regions with poor school performance. Based on provincial data from the 1994 and 2004 General Population and Housing Census and on the analysis of spatial data, the aim of this work is to analyze the disparities in the Moroccan educational system, and then to show how spatial inequalities in education are conditioned by socio-economic inequalities.
... These findings assert that poor socioeconomic conditions is at the root of educational inequalities (Shavit and Blossfeld 1993;Meuret and Morlaix 2006;Mingat 2007;Lanus 2009;Alexiu et al. 2010;Pillay 2017). Thus, the greater the distance between school and residence, the greater the likelihood of leaving school (Ibourk and Amaghouss 2016). ...
... Certainly, a developed region does not reflect the realities of its provinces and communes (Jacka et al. 2013). Thus, in order to achieve a balanced regional or provincial structure, local actors must take into consideration the specificities and deficits of each territory (Ibourk and Amaghouss 2016). The solution to the problems of inequality of development that any territory knows resides in the efficiency and capacity to create and realize projects of the territory to make them real levers of development. ...
... Nevertheless, the last decade has seen an increase in the number of institutional reports dealing with the different dimensions of regional disparities in Morocco, such as the report on advanced regionalization prepared by the Royal Advisory Commission on Regionalization (RACR), and the report of the High Commission for Planning, which analyses socioeconomic indicators at the regional level. Also we find the works of (Altinok 2006;ElAnsari 2009;Ibourk and Amaghouss 2012, 2016Mourji and Abbaia 2013), dealing with spatial disparities in several sectors and regions of Morocco. ...
At the global level, the issue of combating spatial inequalities is the subject of considerable debate and public interest. However, the consideration of the local level in the measurement of regional disparities is often neglected. The objective of this work is to study spatial inequalities in Morocco using the case of the Marrakech-Safi region. To do so, the different indices of multidimensional territorial development (IDTM) were collected (level of education, economic activity, health status, housing condition, living environment and distribution of social services). A statistical analysis using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a Hierarchical Ascending Classification (HAC) was carried out, thereafter, in order to understand and bring out the existing relationship between the different deficits. We also used the GIS tool to process and represent the results obtained. These results reveal the existence of a strong spatial disparity at the communal and provincial levels. A strong relationship is noted between two indices that show a large deficit, the one related to "standard of living" and the one related to "education", "housing" and "social services". The deficit in the education index also conditions the deficit in "social services" and "housing". Several factors influence the values of these indices. It should be noted that the areas with the highest level of disparities are the territories where the natural obstacle is more important, such as in the mountainous areas of the Western High Atlas, suffering from a lack of water resources and deficient in terms of road accessibility. The results obtained could be mobilized by the various actors and especially the public authorities to carry out more effective actions for S. Salhi (B) ESO,
... These findings assert that poor socioeconomic conditions is at the root of educational inequalities (Shavit and Blossfeld 1993;Meuret and Morlaix 2006;Mingat 2007;Lanus 2009;Alexiu et al. 2010;Pillay 2017). Thus, the greater the distance between school and residence, the greater the likelihood of leaving school (Ibourk and Amaghouss 2016). ...
... Certainly, a developed region does not reflect the realities of its provinces and communes (Jacka et al. 2013). Thus, in order to achieve a balanced regional or provincial structure, local actors must take into consideration the specificities and deficits of each territory (Ibourk and Amaghouss 2016). The solution to the problems of inequality of development that any territory knows resides in the efficiency and capacity to create and realize projects of the territory to make them real levers of development. ...
... Nevertheless, the last decade has seen an increase in the number of institutional reports dealing with the different dimensions of regional disparities in Morocco, such as the report on advanced regionalization prepared by the Royal Advisory Commission on Regionalization (RACR), and the report of the High Commission for Planning, which analyses socioeconomic indicators at the regional level. Also we find the works of (Altinok 2006;ElAnsari 2009;Ibourk and Amaghouss 2012, 2016Mourji and Abbaia 2013), dealing with spatial disparities in several sectors and regions of Morocco. ...
At the global level, the issue of combating spatial inequalities is the subject of considerable debate and public interest. However, the consideration of the local level in the measurement of regional disparities is often neglected. The objective of this work is to study spatial inequalities in Morocco using the case of the Marrakech-Safi region. To do so, the different indices of multidimensional territorial development (IDTM) were collected (level of education, economic activity, health status, housing condition, living environment and distribution of social services). A statistical analysis using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a Hierarchical Ascending Classification (HAC) was carried out, thereafter, in order to understand and bring out the existing relationship between the different deficits. We also used the GIS tool to process and represent the results obtained. These results reveal the existence of a strong spatial disparity at the communal and provincial levels. A strong relationship is noted between two indices that show a large deficit, the one related to “standard of living” and the one related to “education”, “housing” and “social services”. The deficit in the education index also conditions the deficit in “social services” and “housing”. Several factors influence the values of these indices. It should be noted that the areas with the highest level of disparities are the territories where the natural obstacle is more important, such as in the mountainous areas of the Western High Atlas, suffering from a lack of water resources and deficient in terms of road accessibility. The results obtained could be mobilized by the various actors and especially the public authorities to carry out more effective actions for the territorial development of the studied areas. The method used in this study could also be useful as a practical scientific approach for other regions of Morocco.
... A well-educated local environment positively influences school performance and retention (TC7). Additionally, demographic factors, such as population density and living conditions, poorly equipped housing, and limited access to telecommunications and internet networks, play a significant role [80]. Furthermore, geographical and environmental factors present substantial barriers in areas with high dropout risks; for instance, regions lacking access to drinking water experience higher dropout rates (TC6). ...
Early school dropout rates in Morocco exhibit widespread spatial imbalances leading to adverse consequences. Indeed, there is thus a pressing need to investigate the factors contributing to the phenomenon. To this end, this study conducts a multivariate spatial analysis of 75 provinces in Morocco. It uses 100 variables to explain dropout rates across ten territorial components (TC): demography and household structure (TC1), cultural and linguistic variety (TC2), poverty and living conditions (TC3), labor market (TC4), type of housing (TC5), living environment (TC6), school graduate (TC7), social programs (TC8), preschool education (TC9), and primary and middle school supply (TC10). By exploring a multivariate spatial approach, this study bridges the gap in the mainstream literature on some individual factors on school dropout using a spatial measurement approach to identify particular spatial variables. The findings highlight significant variables related to household size over populated households with a polygamous structure (TC1), a widowed marital status, especially for women less autonomous (TC1), ethnocultural and linguistic issues via a local population less fluent in foreign languages (TC2) and illiterate (TC7). The poverty, isolation, and remoteness of certain predominantly rural provinces (TC5) remain less connected to elementary services such as drinking water and the internet (TC6). In particular, in the labor market component, there is a pull effect to school dropout decisions from low-skilled job prospects (TC3) and (TC4). Finally, preschooling has an impact on the foundation of human capital at an early age (TC9) as well as on the supply and type of schools (Satelite), which remains a proximity model for the retention of young children, especially girls (TC10). After identifying at-risk provinces, we observed that the school dropout process has a multifactorial, correlative, and cumulative nature. The territorial targeting must move towards multidimensional corrections by multi-actors from the territorial ecosystem. Positive discrimination should target at-risk provinces based on the gaps identified in each territorial component studied.
In an ever evolving landscape of higher education, the need to widen access and participation onto higher education courses has become a mainstay of many universities in the United Kingdom (UK). One of the proposed solutions to create additional tuition revenue is to focus strategic marketing initiatives onto part time, non-traditional students. However, research suggests that this student group have differing needs and expectations and if they are to graduate successfully from their programmes, a more purposeful set of support mechanisms must be employed. This study, using the phenomenological concept of Lifeworld, examines individual experiences of nine non-traditional students at a case university. It details their experiences within the first six weeks of their program of study and highlights the importance of a sound induction process, the need for greater empathy and support from instructors and an improved communication system amongst faculty to alleviate anxiety and stress with completing the requirements of the programmes.
This paper investigates empirically the extent of educational inequality and its impact on economic growth. Based on Barro and Lee’s (2010) data, we calculate two indicators measuring inequality of education. The sample comprises 15 countries from the MENA region over the period 1970-2010. As a second step, we applied the Kuznets curve of education for each country of the sample. As a third step, we examine the impact of education inequality on the economic growth in MENA region by using OSL and Instrumental Variables panel regressions with country fixed-effects. The findings show a decline in the Gini index within all the countries, for men and women and also for all age groups. The results also indicate that the education distribution was more unequal in the middle-income countries than in the higher-income countries in 2010. The results suggested that the shape of the Kuznets curve depends basically on the measure used to approximate the inequality. The results demonstrate also that the Gini index of men negatively and significantly affects the growth of higher-income countries. At the same time, the total Gini index influenced negatively and significantly the economic growth of all the countries, including those of high income. These results are therefore robust for the used econometric techniques. In terms of economic policy, the results suggest policymakers to focus on educational policies apt to reduce educational inequalities, especially for women, to improve the well being of the population.
Although the quantity of education is widely used to measure the economical and social performances of educativesystems, only a few works have addressed the issue of equity in education. In this work, we have calculated twomeasures of inequality in education based on Barro and Lee’s (2010) data: the Gini index of education and thestandard deviation of schooling. The sample comprises 15 countries from the MENA region over the period1950-2010. We used hierarchical clustering to control for the heterogeneity of the sample and identify the existenceof cluster of similar value. We applied the Kuznets curve of education over the countries of the region. The findingsshow a decline in the Gini index within all the participating countries, for men and women and also for all agegroups. The results also indicate that the education distribution was more unequal in the middle-income countriesthan in the higher-income countries in 2010, although they had almost the same level in 1970. The results suggestedthat the shape of the Kuznets curve depends basically on the measure used to approximate the inequality. Indeed, theKuznets hypothesis is emphasized once we use the standard deviation of schooling. The Gini index, for its part, hasmaintained a significant negative relationship within the average number of years of the study.
This paper focuses on the relationship between the World Bank’s education policy and the recent anti-poverty priorities and strategies that shape the present Bank’s agenda for development. The paper provides a critical assessment of the explicit strategies of the World Bank’s education policies aimed at fighting poverty by identifying the contradictions embedded in anti-poverty discourses and strategies, and relating them to an education policy that generates inequalities and shows little effectiveness in helping people to escape from poverty. This analysis is applied to the situation of Latin American education systems, which have, during the last decade, experienced an important expansion but have also maintained strong inequalities in educational performance and access to post-compulsory education.
This paper takes up some of the newly developed tools of spatial econometrics to analyse the importance of geography in regional growth. This perspective is used to characterise growth features in the Brazilian economy. Two strands of empirical literature are brought together to draw the picture of geography as a factor affecting differential economic performance. Firstly, spatial statistics tradition is implemented to examine the spatial dependence of regional per capita income in Brazil for the last six decades. Secondly, the role that geography may have on the determination of growth paths is approached using intradistribution dynamics tools based on the construction of Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels, for discrete and continuous analysis respectively.
We present a new data set for years of schooling across countries for the 1960–2000 period. The series are constructed from the OECD database on educational attainment and from surveys published by UNESCO. Two features that improve the quality of our data with respect to other series, particularly for series in first-differences, are the use of surveys based on uniform classification systems of education over time, and an intensified use of information by age groups. As a result of the improvement in quality, these new series can be used as a direct substitute for Barro and Lee’s (2001; Oxford Economic Papers, 3, 541–563) data in empirical research. In standard cross-country growth regressions we find that our series yield significant coefficients for schooling. In panel data estimates our series are also significant even when the regressions account for the accumulation of physical capital. Moreover, the estimated macro return is consistent with those reported in labour studies. These results differ from the typical findings of the earlier literature and are a consequence of the reduction in measurement error in the series. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007
Education has been a key factor in the development of countries all over the world and the current differences in living standards are largely due to it. In the immediate postindependence period, Morocco was forced to face several a constraint among which is building an educational system3 that meets the growing needs of the society. Despite all the reforms implemented by the public authorities, the performance of the educational system remains very low (the persistence of illiteracy, the enrolment rates are still very low throughout all levels, high proportion of school drop-outs, lower achievement levels, unemployment among graduates and persistent inequalities). The purpose of this paper is to analyze the performance of the Moroccan educational system from a spatial perspective. Any educational policy4 should aim to increase the level of the stock of human capital through investments in public infrastructures (schools, roads.) especially in rural areas in order to reduce disparities and also to ensure high quality education that meets the needs of the current era and the expectations of the society.
This article explores the spatial disparity and convergence of education in Morocco. We identify the type of autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity in the Moroccan education system, and test whether its performance converges due to one of these factors. Three types of education indicators (quantity, quality and inequality) are used in the study. Using multi-dimensional analysis, we build a summary indicator that provides us with an overview of the system. Our sample includes 61 Moroccan provinces, studied between 1994 and 2004. Using spatial econometric techniques, our results show that whichever the indicator used there is strong spatial disparity in education in Morocco. The results confirm the validity of the centre–periphery model used in the education sector. The results also confirm the hypothesis of β-convergence of the performance of the Moroccan education system. Consequently, the need for policies to reduce the unfair inequalities between different areas is apparent.
In this paper we seek to provide an explanation of three widely documented empirical phenomena. These are: (i) increasing educational participation rates; (ii) little change in class differentials in these rates; and (iii) a recent and very rapid erosion of gender differentials in educational attainment levels. We develop a formal mathematical model, using a rational action approach and drawing on earlier work that seeks to explain these three trends as the product of individual decisions made in the light of the resources available to, and the constraints facing, individual pupils and their families. The model represents children and their families as acting rationally, i.e. as choosing among the different educational options available to them on the basis of evaluations of their costs and benefits and of the perceived probabilities of more or less successful outcomes. It then accounts for stability, or change, in the educational differentials that ensue by reference to a quite limited range of situational features. So, both class and gender differences in patterns of educational decisions are explained as the consequence of differences in resources and constraints. We do not, therefore, invoke 'cultural' or 'normative' differences between classes or genders to account for why they differ in their typical educational decisions (though we have something to say about the role of norms in such an account). Because the model is presented mathematically, testable corollaries are easy to derive as are other implications of our model for patterns of relevant behaviour.
The Determinants of Mathematics Performances of Moroccan Secondary School Students: a Multilevel Analysis
Drawing on an evaluation test of the mathematics performances of Moroccan secondary school students, the article intends to identify the main significant variables explaining the performance in mathematics. The data gathered from TIMSS 2003 program covers a sample of 1 140 students attending 68 different schools across the country.
Using a multilevel procedure, we find evidence of the significant role played by gender related variable as well as wealth indicators (asset ownership) at the level of households. Just few variable related to the school context (school localization, age of the teachers and experience) have a significant effect.
The results bring implications at two levels. On one side we are able to provide lessons for improving household strategies and inform public decision makers on how to improve school performance in mathematics. From a methodological view point the study also confirms the appropriateness of using multilevel models to process data that have a hierarchical structure.
This paper uses newly collected data from the Reserve Bank of India to examine the effects of various types of banking sector controls on the process of financial deepening. With the exception of a lending rate ceiling, these controls are found to influence financial deepening negatively, independently of the well known effect of the real interest rate. Exogeneity tests suggest that financial deepening and economic growth are jointly determined. Thus, policies which affect financial deepening may also have an influence on economic growth.
The paper tries to delve deeper into the relationship between financial sector development, broadly defined to go beyond financial deepening, and economic growth by using a new database including 65 countries (both industrial and developing ones) over the period 1960-99 and by also exploring new routes regarding the measurement of financial sector development. Empirical results obtained from the estimation of dynamic panel data models using various GMM estimators seem to suggest that financial sector development contributes to economic growth although the magnitude of the impact varies depending inter alia on the level of development (industrial vis-à-vis developing countries).
Spatial dynamics of economic growth in Brazil (1970-2000) : an empirical approach
This paper uses contemporary tools to analyse the spatial dynamics of Brazilian economic growth (1970-2000). Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, Markov chains and stochastic kernel techniques (spatially conditioned) are combined and applied to GDP per capita of Minimum Comparable Areas (MCAs) in Brazil and its regions. MCAs tended to converge to their neighbours’classes, with higher probability in upper classes, and divergent trajectories were frequent. The results corroborate the role of space and the fact that usual convergence tests are unsatisfactory to depict the dynamics of economic growth in Brazil.
As human capital is one of the precious assets that the poor may possess, its distribution among the population matters a
great deal for human welfare and economic growth. This chapter provides an overview of the literature and a framework for
analyzing and measuring the inequality of education. It reviews the current state of inequality of education in the world
and the association between the distribution of education and economic growth. Based on our studies in 1998-2002, we introduce
the concept of education Gini coefficient and measure the inequality in educational attainment for 140 countries between 1960
and 2000. Using the education Gini we are able to compare the distribution of educational attainment across countries and
over time. Empirical evidence, albeit limited, suggests that the distribution of education matters significantly for economic
growth. Much work remains to be done to investigate the determinants of inequality in education and policy options to improve
the access to education and reduce inequalities.
In this paper we have two complementary objectives: the first is to describe the magnitude of social disparities that exist
in the systems of education of sub-Saharan African countries; we focus on recent data but we also put these data in a time
perspective. The second objective is to identify some of the factors that may explain these disparities and the impact of
policies aimed at their reduction.
This study introduces a new approach that enables, for the first time, the estimation of national and personal human capital (HC) in money value. National HC is estimated on the basis of the life cycle mean earned income by age using sample survey data which are smoothed with local linear filters. Personal HC is treated as a dimensionless latent endogenous variable. The estimation of each economic unit HC as a latent variable is benchmarked by the estimation of the average national HC in order to obtain estimates in money value. A model is fitted to study the distribution of personal HC. This new approach is illustrated using data from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board sample survey on income and wealth distributions. The new theoretical developments and empirical results provide the framework to advance socioeconomic policies on issues of endogenous economic growth with economic efficiency and social equity, hence, to deal with the problems of poverty and socially unacceptable inequality. This study is integrated with a discussion and evaluation of alternative methods of HC estimation proposed in the literature, i.e. the prospective, retrospective, and educational stock. It includes a brief comment on the contributions of the Chicago School which specifies an earning income function within the HC conceptual framework, without dealing with HC estimation.
Our panel data set on educational attainment has been updated for 146 countries from 1950 to 2010. The data are disaggregated by sex and by 5-year age intervals. We have improved the accuracy of estimation by using information from consistent census data, disaggregated by age group, along with new estimates of mortality rates and completion rates by age and education level. We use these new data to investigate how output relates to the stock of human capital, measured by overall years of schooling as well as by the composition of educational attainment of workers at various levels of education. We find schooling has a significantly positive effect on output. After controlling for the simultaneous determination of human capital and output, by using the 10-year lag of parents‘ education as an instrument variable (IV) for the current level of education, the estimated rate-of-return to an additional year of schooling ranges from 5% to 12%, close to typical Mincerian return estimates found in the labor literature.
Growth in this model is driven by technological change that arises from intentional investment decisions made by profit-maximizing agents. The distinguishing feature of the technology as an input is that it is not a conventional good or a public good; it is a nonrival, partially excludable good. Because of the noconvexity introduced by a nonrival good, price-taking competition cannot be supported. Instead, the equilibrium is one with monopolistic competition. The main conclusions are that the stock of human capital determines the rate of growth, that too little human capital is devoted to research in equilibrium, that integration into world markets will increase growth rates, and that a large population is not sufficient to generate growth. Copyright 1990 by University of Chicago Press.
Standard one-sector growth models often have the counterfactual implication that economies with access to similar technologies
will converge to a common balanced growth path. We propose an elaboration of the Diamond model that permits multiple, locally
stable stationary states. This multiplicity is due to increasing social returns to scale in the accumulation of human capital.
Summary Household- and district-level determinants of primary school enrollment are studied for 220,000 children in 340 districts of 30 developing countries using multilevel analysis. Parental decisions regarding children's education are found to be influenced by socio-economic and demographic household characteristics and characteristics of the available educational facilities, like number of teachers, percentage of female teachers, and distance to school. Other relevant context characteristics are urbanization and the position of women relative to that of men. Interaction analysis shows that many effects of household-level factors depend on the context in which the household is living.
The primary aim of the paper is to place current methodological discussions in macroeconometric modeling contrasting the ‘theory first’ versus the ‘data first’ perspectives in the context of a broader methodological framework with a view to constructively appraise them. In particular, the paper focuses on Colander’s argument in his paper “Economists, Incentives, Judgement, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics” contrasting two different perspectives in Europe and the US that are currently dominating empirical macroeconometric modeling and delves deeper into their methodological/philosophical underpinnings. It is argued that the key to establishing a constructive dialogue between them is provided by a better understanding of the role of data in modern statistical inference, and how that relates to the centuries old issue of the realisticness of economic theories.
This paper examines the relationship between spatial clustering and inequality at the county scale with overall state per capita income in the U.S. over the period 1969-2000. For each of the 48 coterminous states we examine measures of inequality and spatial clustering and explore how a state's overall income level may be influenced by, or influence, these measures. Our exploratory analysis utilizes the open- source package Space-Time Analysis of Regional Systems (STARS) to illustrate some new techniques for analyzing regional income dynamics. The results provide insight into the possible relationships between inequality, clustering and relative income levels, and generates a number of interesting avenues for future research.
The aim of this paper is to measure the returns to migration using non-experimental data taking both observed and unobserved characteristics into account. A significant challenge related to migration research and the issues of unobserved heterogeneity is that the standard 2stage least squares estimator (2SLS) is strictly only applicable to situations with linear and continuous treatment and outcomes, both of which are not appropriate for models of migration and many outcomes of interest. Furthermore, migration is not always a binary process given that people migrate to city or non-city locations and some migrants do return. Introducing these multinomial treatment effects means that one cannot rely on standard 2SLS methods. Using panel data from Indonesia (Indonesia Family Life Survey—IFLS) and Mexico (Mexican Family Life Survey— MxFLS) and applying non-linear instrumental variable (Heckman’s treatment effects model) and maximum simulated likelihood models, we measure the impacts of migration on a broad range of variables that include socio economic outcomes such as consumption, nutrition, health status and emotional well-being for adult household members and health and schooling outcomes for children. We find consistent results for both countries that point to significant trade-offs related to migration. We found that migration can greatly improve socio-economic status through increases in income or consumption but can also be detrimental to the health status and emotional well-being of migrants and/or their extended families.
"Various hypotheses have been put forward in recent years concerning the contribution of human capital to economic growth. This paper argues that school enrolment rates--by far the most commonly used human capital measure in growth regressions attempting to test these hypotheses--conflate human capital stock and accumulation effects and lead to misinterpretations of the role of labour force growth. An alternative education-related human capital measure is constructed which is capable of distinguishing between stocks and flows. Applying this measure to samples of developed and less developed countries during the 1960-85 period suggests not only that there are important growth effects associated both with 'initial' stocks of, and subsequent growth in, human capital, but also that this new measure out-performs the simple school enrolment rates used in previous analyses."
The paper decomposes GDP both in terms of level per capita and growth rate, so as to identify the sources of income differences and of economic growth for all EU27 member states. This accounting approach has multiple advantages, although a number of substantial caveats should be borne in mind when interpreting the results. In particular, the detailed accounting approach helps distinguish exogenous from policy-influenced growth drivers. The combination of lower per-hour productivity and lower labour utilisation is the cause of relatively low per capita GDP in euro area and EU15 countries, while weak productivity remains the main concern in the new member states. GDP growth rate has been broken down into 12 items, including an indicator of labour quality, based upon the composition of employment by educational attainment.
An integrated approach for estimating the stock of human capital in the United States is developed which eliminates well known problems associated with both the cost and income based methods currently in use. Historical information on the cost of the educational investment made is base entrants and the wage rate they receive upon entry into the work force is used to compute a rental rate for human capital.
This study investigates the determinants of school attainments of boys and girls in Turkey. Although high levels of enrollement have been achieved at the primary school level for both boys and girls in much of Turkey, substantial regional differences remain. In particular, in the Southeastern region, girls begin to drop out of school around the third grade.
The study estimates an empirical model of return intentions using a dataset compiled from an internet survey of Turkish professionals residing abroad. In the migration literature, wage differentials are often cited as an important factor explaining skilled migration. The findings of our study suggest, however, that non-pecuniary factors, such as the importance of family and social considerations, are also influential in the return or non-return decision of the highly educated. In addition, economic instability in Turkey, prior intensions to stay abroad and work experience in Turkey also increase non-return. Female respondents also appear less likely to return indicating a more selective migration process for females.
The paper describes the techniques and data adopted for the construction of a new series of estimates of the stock of education in 85 countries over 28 years (1960–1987). The series are built from enrollment data using the perpetual inventory method, adjusted for mortality. Estimates are corrected for grade repetition among school-goers and country-specific drop-out rates for primary and secondary students. Enrollment data series used start as far back as 1930 for most countries, and even earlier for others. This reduces the need for backward extrapolation of enrollments to provide the initial estimates of the investment inventory.
Responding to a perceived growing interest in human wealth estimates, this paper offers a framework for measuring the aggregate stock of human capital and then implements the procedure for the United States male population age 14 to 75. Unlike previous estimates of human wealth that are based upon historical or resource costs, these estimates measure the capital stock as the discounted resent‐value of expected lifetime returns. In the estimation, returns are equated with earnings data from the 1970 U.S. Census 15 percent Public Use Sample for out‐of‐school males, adjusted for employment and survival probabilities, adjusted for an assumed exogenous growth in future earnings, and discounted at 7.5 percent.
We provide cross‐sectional estimates of individual stocks of human capital by age and educational attainment, as well as expected lifetime wealth profiles for individuals by level of education. These individual profiles can be used to obtain direct estimates of age‐specific depreciation which suggest human capital is subject to significant and prolonged appreciation before nearly straight‐line depreciation begins around middle age. This finding is all the more significant since resource‐cost estimates of human capital which must assume a depreciation pattern to obtain stocks have always imposed a much faster rate much sooner.
Finally, an aggregate estimate of the stock of human capital for all males is supplied and its sensitivity to the choice of the discount rate, tax laws, and expected exogenous growth is analyzed. This seemingly‐conservative stock estimate is then compared to a much lower resource‐cost estimate offered recently by John Kendrick. A discount rate over 20 percent would be needed to equate the two measures. In trying to reconcile the two figures, we raise some new questions about the validity of both approaches for human capital accounting.
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