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Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
... This model is presented below. The proposal by Lascano Corrales (2015) was the starting point of the so-called HAT © test, which has been used in research with results that have been published in several papers between 2017 and 2024, from this information axioms of human action or praxeology (Mises, 1949) will be identified and explained, through empirical applications, heuristics (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973;Kahneman, 2011) and biases proposed by Thaler (1980) and other researchers that will be referenced. ...
... This first meeting was evidence of the idea, held by officials of that entity, of a very low probability that this time the purpose of transforming that entity would be achieved. What is known as availability bias (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973) was evident, together with the fact that the memory of the past made the final negative result more predictable; hindsight bias (Fischhoff, 1975). These biases are a consequence of the ease with which recurrent or shocking events are presented, recalled and exemplified, in other words, the so-called availability heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). ...
... What is known as availability bias (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973) was evident, together with the fact that the memory of the past made the final negative result more predictable; hindsight bias (Fischhoff, 1975). These biases are a consequence of the ease with which recurrent or shocking events are presented, recalled and exemplified, in other words, the so-called availability heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). ...
The purpose of this article is to present, delimit, and integrate the proposals of economic behavior and behavioral economics, including their axioms, heuristics, and biases, to advance research in this field. The article recommends applying first economic and then psychological issues, in that strict order, for epistemological, legal and practical reasons. Based on human action or praxeology, the process of economic decision making and doing is graphed, these in turn frame systems of thought with their different heuristics, the latter of which are the cause of systematic errors called biases.
... 1. Availability Heuristic [139] -is defined as a perceived frequency of a class is determined by the ease with which its instances come to mind. As an example, consider a data scientist who recently resolved a significant data imbalance issue in a predictive modeling project for customer churn. ...
... They may prematurely conclude that data imbalance is the cause of inaccuracies in the model, neglecting to investigate other factors like feature selection or algorithm choice, which could be equally or more pertinent. This is because the recent experience is easily recalled [139]. 2. Confirmation Bias [140,141] and Positive Test Strategy [142] are defined as the tendency to seek supporting evidence for one's current hypothesis. ...
Current research on bias in machine learning often focuses on fairness, while overlooking the roots or causes of bias. Bias was originally defined as a ”system-atic error” often caused by humans at different stages of the research process. This paper aims to bridge the gap between past and present literature on bias in research by providing taxonomy for potential sources of bias and errors in data and models, with special focus paid on bias in machine learning pipelines. Survey analyses over forty potential sources of bias in the machine learning (ML) pipeline, providing clear examples for each. By understanding the sources and consequences of bias in machine learning, better methods can be developed for its detection and mitigation, which lead to fairer, more transparent, and more accurate ML models.
... Confirmation bias, the tendency to seek out or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs, makes individuals particularly susceptible to misinformation that aligns with their viewpoints (Nickerson, 1998). Similarly, the availability heuristic leads people to overestimate the importance of information that comes to mind easily, such as viral social media posts (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). These biases can impair students' ability to objectively evaluate sources and content. ...
Misinformation poses a significant threat to democratic societies by undermining public trust, increasing polarization, and obstructing informed decision-making. This paper explores the pervasive impact of misinformation on democracy and emphasizes the critical role of K-12 educators in fostering media literacy skills among students. By equipping students with the ability to critically evaluate information, educators can help build a more informed citizenry capable of resisting the influence of falsehoods. The paper discusses strategies for teachers, including building media literacy, teaching critical evaluation methods, leveraging technology responsibly, and fostering a culture of critical thinking and civil discourse. Practical resources for teachers are also highlighted to combat misinformation effectively
... /2024 research showing that cognitive bias affects nurses' decision-making and practice (Jala 473 et al., 2023, Whyte et al., 2022. Availability bias increases with the ease of recalling 474 relevant examples (Tversky and Kahneman, 1973). Therefore, if nurses recalled recent 475 instances where patients with similar characteristics fell, their fall risk estimates would 476 increase, while recalling instances where such patients did not fall would lead to 477 underestimation. ...
Background: Assessing fall risk is a complex process requiring the integration of diverse information and cognitive strategies. Despite this complexity, few studies have explored how nurses make these judgements. Moreover, existing research suggests variability in nurses' fall risk assessments, but the reasons for this variation and its appropriateness remain unclear.
Objective: This study aimed to investigate how nurses judge fall risk, and the factors associated with their judgements.
Methods: Using purposive sampling, 335 nurses from six hospitals in eastern Japan participated in an online survey. The participants rated the likelihood of falls in 18 patient scenarios and completed measures of base-rate neglect, belief bias, and availability bias. A linear mixed-effects regression tree was used to identify factors related to their judgements, and a linear mixed-effects regression model examined associations between judgement variability, cognitive biases, and clinical specialty.
Results: Nurses' fall risk assessments were primarily influenced by whether patients called for assistance, followed by the use of sleeping pills, the presence of a tube or drain, and patient mobility status. Judgement variability was linked to nurses ' gender, education, clinical specialty, and susceptibility to availability bias.
Conclusion: Variability in clinical judgement may be justified when reflecting personalised, context-specific care. However, inconsistencies arising from cognitive biases are problematic. Healthcare organisations should offer targeted training to enhance contextual expertise and reduce the influence of cognitive biases on fall risk assessments.
... La crise des subprimes est le résultat classique d'une sous-estimation par la foule (y compris la plus informée) de la probabilité d'occurrence de scénarios défavorables. À la frontière de l'économie et de la psychologie comportementales, cette sous-estimation, une forme de dissonance cognitive(Festinguer, 1957, Tversky & Kahneman, 1973, favorise la myopie du désastre, le comportement grégaire de prise de risque excessive et la surréaction à une réalité défavorable.Le film raconte l'histoire du comportement stratégique de certains protagonistes -les leaders de l'écosystème des marchés financiers (Wall Street) -qui ont la particularité de ne pas souffrir de cette dissonance cognitive. Conscients des probabilités objectives de la situation, ils déploient une stratégie contraire aux attentes des masses dans un contexte de crise majeure.Chaque personnage est unique dans son style de leadership et d'improvisation organisationnelle, en fonction de ses représentations mentales et de son expérience ainsi que de l'environnement institutionnel particulier. ...
... It turned out that some were not. When we (Sedlmeier et al., 1998) made the first (and to date sole) attempt to replicate the famous letter-frequency study by Tversky and Kahneman (1973), we found no systematic availability bias. Priming effects were the next casualties of replication studies. ...
During the Cold War, logical rationality – consistency axioms, subjective expected utility maximization, Bayesian probability updating – became the bedrock of economics and other social sciences. In the 1970s, logical rationality underwent attack by the heuristics-and-biases program, which interpreted the theory as a universal norm of how individuals should make decisions, although such an interpretation is absent in von Neumann and Morgenstern’s foundational work and dismissed by Savage. Deviations in people’s judgments from the theory were thought to reveal stable cognitive biases, which were in turn thought to underlie social problems, justifying governmental paternalism. In the 1990s, the ecological rationality program entered the field, based on the work of Simon. It moves beyond the narrow bounds of logical rationality and analyzes how individuals and institutions make decisions under uncertainty and intractability. This broader view has shown that many supposed cognitive biases are marks of intelligence rather than irrationality, and that heuristics are indispensable guides in a world of uncertainty. The passionate debate between the three research programs became known as the rationality wars. I provide a brief account from the ‘frontline’ and show how the parties understood in strikingly different ways what the war entailed.
... Consequently, it is most effective in situations in which attitudes toward risk are essential (Barberis, 2013). Prospect theory indicates that financial decision-making involves a behavioral aspect influenced by psychological, social, and environmental factors, which contribute to the complexity of individuals' financial decisions (Rahman, 2019;Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). It also shows that individuals assess outcomes based on deviations from a reference point, rather than net asset levels, which emphasizes the importance of identifying this reference point. ...
... In contrast, in the case of a high base rate for unfairness, there may be a rationale for being more liberal in reporting that there was unfairness because hits by chance become more likely (Lynn & Barrett, 2014). Such effects may not necessarily be caused by the actual base rate, but by expected base rates (Alexander, 2022;Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). For example, if overseers work in an environment where the issue of fairness is salient (e.g., where there have been recent unfair decisions), this may affect expected base rates of unfairness independent of the actual reliability of the system. ...
Legislation and ethical guidelines around the globe call for effective human oversight of AI-based systems in high-risk contexts – that is oversight that reliably reduces the risks otherwise associated with the use of AI-based systems. Such risks may relate to the imperfect accuracy of systems (e.g., inaccurate classifications) or to ethical concerns (e.g., unfairness of outputs). Given the significant role that human oversight is expected to play in the operation of AI-based systems, it is crucial to better understand the conditions for effective human oversight. We argue that the reliable detection of errors (as an umbrella term for inaccuracies and unfairness) is crucial for effective human oversight. We then propose that Signal Detection Theory (SDT) offers a promising framework for better understanding what affects people’s sensitivity (i.e., how well they are able to detect errors) and response bias (i.e., the tendency to report errors given a perceived evidence of an error) in detecting errors. Whereas an SDT perspective on the detection of inaccuracies is straightforward, we demonstrate its broader applicability by detailing the specifics for an SDT perspective on unfairness detection, including the need to choose a standard for (un)fairness. Additionally, we illustrate that an SDT perspective helps to better understand the conditions for effective error detection by showing examples of task-, system-, and person-related factors that may affect the sensitivity and response bias of humans tasked with detecting unfairness associated with the use of AI-based systems. Finally, we discuss future research directions for an SDT perspective on error detection.
... This is often due to information overload, a state in which individuals display worsened decision making because of the volume of the information exceeding an individual's processing capacity 19,20 . It has also been found that increased information on the potential negative effects of the vaccine increases the mental availability about the negative event or an increase in risk perception towards the vaccine, even if framed positively 12,21,22 . This can in turn lead to increased vaccine hesitancy 23 . ...
Although immunization through vaccination is one of the most successful public health interventions, actual coverage of vaccination program has decreased rapidly over the last years due to increased vaccine hesitancy. Cognitive biases have been shown to play an important role in affecting vaccine hesitancy. In this study, we conducted a randomized-control trial (N = 2000, N = 1000 from Spain and N = 1000 from Bulgaria), where subjects were randomly assigned to one condition. The conditions differed by whether an electronic Product Information (ePI) was presented to the subjects and by the type of information that was focused to the patient. The current study showed that the provision of digital information in the form of an ePI has important consequences for achieving high vaccination rates. The main result suggests that providing vaccination information in the form of an ePI can increase patients’ vaccine hesitancy. This effect remained when positive and/or negative information in the ePI was focused to the patients. Additionally, we observe that vaccine hesitant individuals spend less time reading the ePI. We conclude, by relating the current study to the relevant literature, that information overload could be the main driver of vaccine hesitancy in the context of this study.
... This behaviour is an active research topic in economics, psychology, and neuroscience [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Decision making requires accurate judgment of event probabilities, yet these judgments are often inaccurate, as people tend to rely on heuristics and therefore make systematic errors when thinking under uncertainty [7,8]. One well-established judgement error is the overweighting of low probabilities, i.e., people tend to give more decision weights to rare events, and act as if they are more likely to happen than they really are [9][10][11][12][13]. ...
Making decisions when outcomes are uncertain requires accurate judgment of the probability of outcomes, yet such judgments are often inaccurate, owing to reliance on heuristics that introduce systematic errors like overweighting of low probabilities. Here, using a decision-making task in which the participants were unaware of outcome probabilities, we discovered that both humans and mice exhibit a rarity-induced decision bias (RIDB), i.e., a preference towards rare rewards, which persists across task performance. Optogenetics experiments demonstrated that activity in the posterior parietal cortex (PPC) is required for the RIDB. Using in vivo electrophysiology, we found that rare rewards bidirectionally modulate choice-encoding PPC neurons to bias subsequent decisions towards rare rewards. Learning enhances stimulus-encoding of PPC neurons, which plays a causal role in stimulus-guided decisions. We then developed a dual-agent behavioural model that successfully recapitulates the decision-making and learning behaviours, and corroborates the specific functions of PPC neurons in mediating decision-making and learning. Thus, beyond expanding understanding of rare probability overweighting to a context where the outcome probability is unknown, and characterizing the neural basis for RIDB in the PPC, our study reveals an evolutionarily conserved heuristic that persistently impacts decision-making and learning under uncertainty.
... One might suggest that the voters' decision-making rule is more complex, e.g., considering a history of payoffs or a stochastic process (as, e.g.,(Bendor et al. 2011) and Kappe(2013) employ). Yet, the availability heuristicKahneman and Tversky (1973) and representative heuristic Kahneman and Tversky (1972) imply a simpler rule based on the latest experiences. Both heuristics essentially affect voting behavior (e.g.,Huber et al. 2012;Healy and Malhotra 2013;Healy and Lenz 2014).Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. ...
This paper develops a behavioral public choice model. It provides testable hypothesis to explain voter shifts in European national elections in the last decade. The model comprises three blocs of parties, the government, the opposition and so-called “profiteers”. Retrospective voters evaluate the performance of each bloc. Furthermore, it introduces an exogenous polarizing event that can affect the government’s and the profiteers’ chance to satisfy voters. Moreover, voters are subject to the negativity bias, which means that negative changes in probabilities to satisfy are stronger than positive changes. This framework yields various results on voting behavior under polarization. Most are robust to the introduction of non-voting. The government only profits from polarization iff sufficiently many positively voters are polarized in their favor to outweigh both the negativity bias and the increased competitiveness by profiteers due to polarization. Profiteers, strengthened by polarization, harm the opposition and increase voter turnout. Additionally, a higher negativity bias impairs the government, decreases voter turnout and benefits the opposition and profiteers.
... Личная безопасность в психологии рассматривается через особенности субъективного восприятия. Социология риска поднимает вопросы психологической защиты, связывает оценку безопасности с самочувствием и социальной адаптацией личности к условиям неопределенности среды [Tversky, Kaneman, 2003]. ...
Статья посвящена изучению восприятия рисков различной природы в структуре оценки личной безопасности студентов КГУ им. К.Э. Циолковского. Представлен анализ ключевых понятий по проблеме исследования, рассмотрены понятия рисков и личной безопасности. Представлены результаты анализа источников литературы о восприятии различных рисков в структуре оценки личной безопасности студентов.
The article is devoted to the study of the perception of risks of various nature in the structure of assessing the personal safety of students of K.E. Tsiolkovsky KSU. The analysis of key concepts on the research problem is presented, the concepts of risks and personal safety are considered. The results of the analysis of literature sources on the perception of various risks in the structure of the assessment of personal safety of students are presented.
... Croskerry (2003) offers a comprehensive review of such limitations. For example, findings show that experts rely on mental heuristics rather than fully using available information (Kahneman et al. 1982) and are prone to various biases, including confirmation bias (Nickerson 1998), anchoring bias (Tversky and Kahneman 1974), and availability bias (Tversky and Kahneman 1973). ...
Expert workers make non-trivial decisions with significant implications. Experts’ decision accuracy is, thus, a fundamental aspect of their judgment quality, key to both management and consumers of experts’ services. Yet, in many important settings, transparency in experts’ decision quality is rarely possible because ground truth data for evaluating the experts’ decisions is costly and available only for a limited set of decisions. Furthermore, different experts typically handle exclusive sets of decisions, and thus, prior solutions that rely on the aggregation of multiple experts’ decisions for the same instance are inapplicable. We first formulate the problem of estimating experts’ decision accuracy in this setting and then develop a machine–learning–based framework to address it. Our method effectively leverages both abundant historical data on workers’ past decisions and scarce decision instances with ground truth labels. Using both semi-synthetic data based on publicly available data sets and purposefully compiled data sets on real workers’ decisions, we conduct extensive empirical evaluations of our method’s performance relative to alternatives. The results show that our approach is superior to existing alternatives across diverse settings, including settings that involve different data domains, experts’ qualities, and amounts of ground truth data. To our knowledge, this paper is the first to posit and address the problem of estimating experts’ decision accuracies from historical data with scarce ground truth, and it is the first to offer comprehensive results for this problem setting, establishing the performances that can be achieved across settings as well as the state-of-the-art performance on which future work can build.
This paper was accepted by Anindya Ghose, information systems.
Funding: T. Geva acknowledges research grants from the Jeremy Coller Foundation and from the Henry Crown Institute for Business Research.
Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.03357 .
... 4 Due to being more readily retrieved, recent memories relatively dominate cognition and disproportionately affect judgement in unrelated circumstances, termed availability bias. 5 For example, when seeing a new patient with diarrhoea and abdominal pain, a physician who recently encountered a memorable case of cholangitis might be biased away from a correct diagnosis of myocardial infarction and toward an incorrect diagnosis of acute hepatitis. 6 Similarly, radiologists more intensely scrutinise particular regions of medical images reminiscent of recently encountered abnormalities, leading to higher rates of false positive findings. ...
Introduction
Hospital‐based transfusion involves hundreds of daily medical decisions. Medical decision‐making under uncertainty is susceptible to cognitive biases which can lead to systematic errors of reasoning and suboptimal patient care. Here we review common cognitive biases that may be relevant for transfusion practice.
Materials and Methods
Biases were selected based on categorical diversity, evidence from healthcare contexts, and relevance for transfusion medicine. For each bias, we provide background psychology literature, representative clinical examples, considerations for transfusion medicine, and strategies for mitigation.
Results
We report seven cognitive biases relating to memory (availability heuristic, limited memory), interpretation (framing effects, anchoring bias), and incentives (search satisficing, sunk cost fallacy, feedback sanction).
Conclusion
Pitfalls of reasoning due to cognitive biases are prominent in medical decision making and relevant for hospital transfusion medicine. An awareness of these phenomena might stimulate further research, encourage corrective measures, and motivate nudge‐based interventions to improve transfusion practice.
... I recommend this remembrance (Parks, 2007). 3 Which appeared as Study 3 in Tversky and Kahneman (1973). how quickly people produce examples in a brief period of time predicts how many examples they could produce if they worked longer. ...
Interpreting any decision requires making auxiliary assumptions regarding how the decision makers viewed their options and related them to their lives. Theories constrain those assumptions. The more general the theory, the fewer constraints it imposes and the more assumptions must be made in any application. Like the rational actor models that they challenged, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky’s heuristics-and-biases and prospect theory research programs were general theories, with broad application. One of the many marvels of their landmark studies is that they rarely test their auxiliary assumptions. Rather, readers were trusted to agree about how people interpret the tasks (e.g., select anchors in studies of that heuristic). Subsequent studies have often accepted those interpretations in order to examine boundary conditions (e.g., extreme anchors). Applying the theories to naturally occurring tasks requires making additional auxiliary assumptions. This article illustrates three ways to evaluate those assumptions: direct assessment, systematic manipulation, and archival analysis. It concludes with proposals for loosely coordinated evaluation of shared and contested assumptions.
... Paradójicamente, es precisamente el análisis de este discurso de odio hacia colectivos vulnerables lo que permite identicar y delimitar de manera precisa cuáles son los heurísticos cognitivos cuya activación ha derivado en la construcción de la representación social sesgada que lo origina. De esta forma, es posible diferenciar en esta clase de discursos varios de los atajos cognitivos ya mencionados, entre los que cabe destacar el heurístico de accesibilidad, el heurístico de representatividad o el heurístico de anclaje 666 (Baron, 2012;Tversky y Kahneman, 1973) como responsables de esta visión simpli cada de un fenómeno social de gran complejidad. No obstante, es necesario precisar que dichos heurísticos en su de nición anterior hacen alusión a gran variedad de situaciones que requieren una toma de decisiones e ciente en términos de economía cognitiva, de manera que en cada contexto adquieren implicaciones distintas y no siempre extrapolables al resto de situaciones. ...
El tratamiento informativo de todas las noticias sobre materia
de igualdad o violencia de género cobran una relevancia
destacada a la hora de consolidar un marco referencial que
sostenga tanto la creación de juicios de valor como el mantenimiento
de actitudes. No obstante, además de analizar todos
aquellos elementos imprescindibles que conformaban el tratamiento
informativo de este tipo de sucesos, caracterizado por
sutiles elementos que esbozan y permean un discurso hegemónico,
surge la necesidad de indagar en la propia interpretación
del espectador. En este sentido, mientras que tratamiento
mediático dota a la audiencia de una exposición de los hechos
que comporta un marco referencial; el propio procesamiento
de esa información consolidará las bases para la emisión de
juicios de valor y la interpretación de estos sucesos.
... Berücksichtigt werden muss außerdem die sog. Verfügbarkeitsheuristik (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973) (Hirtenlehner, 2006;Hirtenlehner & Sessar, 2017;Sessar, 1997). Neben diesen grundsätzlichen Erklärungsansätzen konnten auch individuelle Faktoren wie Geschlecht, regionale Herkunft und Alter als Einflussfaktoren identifiziert werden. ...
... While drought events may leave a significant impact on people's memory due to the immediate and tangible effects experienced (van Duinen et al., 2015;Gebrehiwot and van der Veen, 2021;Griffiths and Tooth, 2021;Taylor et al., 1988), this memory likely fades over time, especially if something else eventful such as flooding happens (Garcia et al., 2022). Recency bias in human memory (related to the availability heuristic; Garcia et al., 2022;Tversky and Kahneman, 1973) gives greater importance to the most recent events. This can lead to a gradual decrease in the perceived risk of droughts and the neglect of long-term drought management practices (Fig. 3a, orange line). ...
... While drought events may leave a significant impact on people's memory due to the immediate and tangible effects experienced (van Duinen et al., 2015;Gebrehiwot and van der Veen, 2021;Griffiths and Tooth, 2021;Taylor et al., 1988), this memory likely fades over time, especially if something else eventful such as flooding happens (Garcia et al., 2022). Recency bias in human memory (related to the availability heuristic; Garcia et al., 2022;Tversky and Kahneman, 1973) gives greater importance to the most recent events. This can lead to a gradual decrease in the perceived risk of droughts and the neglect of long-term drought management practices (Fig. 3a, orange line). ...
... While drought events may leave a significant impact on people's memory due to the immediate and tangible effects experienced (van Duinen et al., 2015;Gebrehiwot and van der Veen, 2021;Griffiths and Tooth, 2021;Taylor et al., 1988), this memory likely fades over time, especially if something else eventful such as flooding happens (Garcia et al., 2022). Recency bias in human memory (related to the availability heuristic; Garcia et al., 2022;Tversky and Kahneman, 1973) gives greater importance to the most recent events. This can lead to a gradual decrease in the perceived risk of droughts and the neglect of long-term drought management practices (Fig. 3a, orange line). ...
Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions and management of droughts and their impacts are often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different timescales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately, and then we study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River basin in the USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River basin in northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological, and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we advocate for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase societal and institutional memory. This will help us to better deal with the complex hydrological–ecological–social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation and mitigation.
... The availability heuristic or as it is also known "the availability bias" is a cognitive bias leading people to judge probabilities on the basis of how easily examples come to mind, Tversky (1973). Simply put because of the ubiquitousness of social media and Facebook in both contemporary society and commercial communications it readily comes to mind with limited expenditure of effort, thought, and an evaluation of alternatives. ...
This cross-sectional mixed-methods research explores whether Afro-Caribbean Entrepreneurs (ACE) in South London, specifically in the boroughs of Lewisham and Lambeth, are adhering to best practices in marketing effectiveness. A sample of 100 ACEs was surveyed, revealing that most were not engaging in optimal marketing practices. Key findings showed that 76% of campaigns lasted less than six months, with 50% running between 1-4 weeks. Social media was the primary communication channel for 51% of respondents, driven largely by resource constraints, particularly financial limitations.
These marketing practices placed ACE campaigns at the lowest level on the Creative Effectiveness Ladder, resulting in a Creative Commitment score of 4, which is considered poor. The research revealed that many entrepreneurs would prefer using traditional media such as television and radio if not for financial barriers. This study fills a gap in the literature by focusing on the under-researched group of Afro-Caribbean entrepreneurs, offering valuable insights into their marketing behaviors and suggesting areas for future research and policy interventions aimed at improving marketing effectiveness for minority-owned businesses.
... individual by [5]. Loewenstien [6] argues that at the time According to Tversky and Kahneman [2] availability of making decision, feelings and emotions force an heuristic is a judgmental heuristic in which a person individual towards a direction which belongs to long term evaluates the rate of recurrence of classes and the costs and benefits of the activities which are incongruent. possibilities of events occurred by the accessibility, i.e. ...
Behavioral finance shows the impact of psychology on the behavior of individuals and is important to study because it shows the main factors behind market inefficiency. Individual investors of the stock market are therefore thought to take rational decisions while making judgments and investment decision. The empirical evidences of previous studies conclude that the involvement of behavioral biases and psychological impacts on investor's judgments and decision making that leads investors towards irrational decision making. Overall discussion in previous studies conclude the presence of behavioral biases in decision making process of investors. All the previous literature that is available has concluded contradictory results so far on the impact of fear and anger on individual investor's judgment and decision making. Keeping this in mind the present study has focused on exploring the real impact of affect heuristic, fear and anger on individual investor's judgments and decision making considering the present scenario in Pakistan. The population of present study was the individual investors trading all over the three stock exchanges of Pakistan. A survey method was conducted with thirty four items to gather the data from 270 investors investing in Islamabad Stock Exchange. Confirmatory Factor Analysis is used to measure the validity of three determinants of individual investor investment decision making.
... Zo zouden onderzoekers bijvoorbeeld eerder informatie over bepaalde rollen die zij verwachten in een script meenemen in hun analyse, terwijl zij informatie over andere rollen mogelijk over het hoofd zien. De availability bias lijkt hierop, maar gaat meer over de waarde die onderzoekers toekennen aan informatie op basis van wat zij zich kunnen herinneren (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). De informatie die onderzoekers zich beter herinnerenbijvoorbeeld de meest recente informatie die zij tot zich hebben genomenzullen zij eerder van belang achten. ...
... Verschillende biases zijn terug te voeren op het gemak waarmee mensen informatie terug kunnen halen uit hun geheugen, omdat dit minder cognitieve inspanning vereist. Dit kan echter leiden tot een availability bias (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). Mamede en collega's (2010) toonden dit aan bij studenten die in opleiding waren tot medisch specialist. ...
... Frontiers in Psychology 03 frontiersin.org (Reber and Schwarz, 1999;Markowitz and Hancock, 2016;McGlone and Tofighbakhsh, 2000;Brennan and Williams, 1995), is perceived as more familiar (Tversky and Kahneman, 1973;Reber and Zupanek, 2002), and is evaluated as safer and less risky Song and Schwarz, 2009). All told, easy processing experiences tend to promote more message acceptance, because the positive feelings derived from one's processing experience become attributed towards the information itself. ...
This experiment (N = 1,019) examined how a state of processing fluency, induced through either an easy or difficult task (reading a simple vs. complex message or recalling few vs. many examples) impacted participants’ ability to subsequently detect misinformation. The results revealed that, as intended, easier tasks led to higher reports of processing fluency. In turn, increased processing fluency was positively associated with internal efficacy. Finally, internal efficacy was positively related to misinformation detection using a signal detection task. This work suggests that feelings of ease while processing information can promote confidence and a more discerning style of information processing. Given the proliferation of misinformation online, an understanding of how metacognitions – like processing fluency – can disrupt the tacit acceptance of information carries important democratic and normative implications.
... Cognitive ease compares to a river flowing with speed after having carved its way through the terrain or having been channeled to an aqueduct. In this way, confirmation, availability, recency, and framing biases (Tversky and Kahneman 1973) can be understood to stem from the least-time maxim. Also, in-group bias can be understood to derive from consuming free energy faster collectively than solitarily. ...
To explain why cognition evolved requires, first and foremost, an analysis of what qualifies as an explanation. In terms of physics, causes are forces and consequences are changes in states of substance. Accordingly, any sequence of events, from photon absorption to focused awareness, chemical reactions to collective behavior, or from neuronal avalanches to niche adaptation, is understood as an evolution from one state to another toward thermodynamic balance where all forces finally tally each other. From this scale-free physics perspective, energy flows through those means and mechanisms, as if naturally selecting them, that bring about balance in the least time. Then, cognitive machinery is also understood to have emerged from the universal drive toward a free energy minimum, equivalent to an entropy maximum. The least-time nature of thermodynamic processes results in the ubiquitous patterns in data, also characteristic of cognitive processes, i.e., skewed distributions that accumulate sigmoidally and, therefore, follow mostly power laws. In this vein, thermodynamics derived from the statistical physics of open systems explains how evolution led to cognition and provides insight, for instance, into cognitive ease, biases, dissonance, development, plasticity, and subjectivity.
... Certain studies propose that information accessibility refers to the ease with which individuals can acquire or retrieve information (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). Given that technological conditions also influence information gathering, we introduce the concept of "information technology accessibility." ...
Academic engagement was recognized as a crucial predictor to measure the effectiveness of online teaching of international students. Therefore, this study established a mediating model to explore the mechanism underlying of interaction and information technology accessibility on academic engagement of international students, as well as the impact of learning interest on these mechanisms with the context of online teaching. Using a stratified random sampling method, 1895 international students from 32 Chinese universities were selected. These international students had completed the academic engagement scale, interaction scale, information technology accessibility scale, and learning interest scale. The study variables were analyzed in sequence for reliability and validity, common method biases test, correlation analysis, structural equation model testing, and bias-corrected percentile Bootstrap testing. The results revealed that online interaction positively affected the academic engagement of international students in Chinese universities (β= 0.35, p < 0.001), and learning interest played a partial mediating role between online interaction and academic engagement (indirect effect = 0.10, 95 % Boot CI = [0.06, 0.13], p < 0.001). Information technology accessibility did not have a direct impact on academic engagement (β= 0.06, p > 0.05); but learning interest played a complete mediating role between information technology accessibility and academic engagement (indirect effect = 0.09, 95 % Boot CI = [0.05, 0.11], p < 0.001). The results of Bootstrap showed that the mediating effects within the model were significant. The findings of this study explored the potential mechanism underlying the online academic engagement of international students in Chinese universities, and provided empirical evidence for universities and educators to implement differentiated learning support, assist international students in adapting to online learning styles, and stimulate the endogenous motivation of students' learning.
... This bias involves placing excessive reliance on easily accessible information from the media when forming judgments or making decisions. Within the media context, this tendency can manifest when individuals shape their viewpoints and convictions based on the most frequently highlighted or discussed information rather than seeking a more well-rounded perspective (Haselton et al., 2015;Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). ...
The integration of immigrants hinges significantly on their ability to secure employment, as it serves as a cornerstone for establishing stability and societal connections in their new environment. Previous studies have found that discrimination toward minorities, especially those with Middle Eastern-sounding names, is driven by gender, as minority males consistently face more discrimination than minority females across different occupations, receiving fewer callbacks in the hiring process. This study aims to extend the inquiry into why only names matter, positing that media portrayal may be a significant influencing factor. The hypothesis explores whether media portrayals of Middle Eastern-sounding names reinforce gender stereotypes, associating minority males with negative themes like violence, crime, or war, and minority females with more benign topics like inequality or oppression, compared to Western-sounding names. Thus, the central research question emerges: "How does the media portray minorities' gender with Middle Eastern-sounding names through topic distribution and priming?" This leads to sub-questions: Are Middle Eastern-named minority males associated with more negative topics than females, and how does this compare with Western-named counterparts? Do both groups exhibit similar topic distributions in media coverage? What are the prevalent words or topics associated with Middle Eastern-named minorities compared to Western-named individuals in Western media? The literature review explores media effects, cognitive biases, ethics, name-stereotyping psychology, and limitations, emphasizing media's influence in shaping public opinions and reflecting societal dynamics. It discusses cognitive biases like confirmation bias and media-induced stereotypes, variations in media ethics, and the impact of media coverage on name perceptions. The study analyzes over 1.8 million articles from The Guardian's digital newspaper, spanning 2000 to 2018, to discern media representations of ethnicity and gender. Personal names categorized ethnicity into native men, native women, minority men, and minority women. Named Entity Recognition (NER) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) facilitate name extraction and topic modeling, respectively. Results indicate Middle Eastern-named minority groups are associated with more negative topics compared to Western-named counterparts. Specifically, minority males are linked to negative themes like violence and terrorism, while minority females are less visible in media and associated with benign topics like motherhood. The study discusses how topic distribution may exacerbate biases towards minorities, with noted limitations. In conclusion, the research elucidates the media's role in perpetuating gender stereotypes among minorities, showing implications for societal perceptions and biases.
... which can sometimes be biased, particularly if tied to an emotionally salient memory (Kensinger, 2007;Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). However, self-report data are widely used and do tend to be relatively accurate (Baldwin, 2000;Chan, 2009). ...
Instructors’ course policies have an important impact on student success in our courses, as well as their perceptions of instructors. One such course policy, which is the focus of this descriptive study, is that of assessment deadlines, more specifically, the various permutations of flexible deadlines. These might include automatic extensions, short or long extensions with or without a penalty, open deadlines for submissions, or a bonus point as an incentive for meeting the deadline. In the present study, we asked students to evaluate these submission deadline policies and how they might affect their wellbeing, procrastination, and perceptions of their instructor. Although they report encountering them most frequently, students don’t perceive extensions with a reduction in grade (e.g., 10% per day) as helpful for their learning and would prefer automatic non-punitive extensions to help support their success and wellbeing. Additionally, students reported that they would have a more positive view of their instructor (nicer and cares about their success) if they had a flexible deadline policy and that it would increase their satisfaction with both the course and instructor. Surprisingly, the largest number of students indicated that their preferred flexible deadline policy would be to receive a bonus for submitting it on time. Implications for policy and student success are discussed. The authors recommend that faculty who use hard/rigid deadlines consider adopting flexible deadlines to better support student success.
... Systemic and predictable mistakes in human decisionmaking often occur due to human biases [6]. understanding the sources of these mistakes is critical, as people employ a limited set of heuristics to make a decision [7]. Kahneman and Tversky's seminal work in the 1970s [8] extensively explored the primary heuristics used by individuals when making judgments under a level of uncertainty. ...
The intersection of human expertise and cutting-edge Artificial Intelligence (AI) marks the beginning of a new era in intelligent and efficient hiring systems. However, each also introduces specific prejudices from both humans and algorithms, leading to systemic flaws and inaccuracies. This narrative review explores the intersection between human and algorithmic biases within AI-empowered hiring systems, highlighting their impacts and the urgent need for solutions. The aim of this research is to build a foundational knowledge base by examining how these biases manifest and their consequences, that could drive the field towards a more equitable and efficient hiring process, free from biases and discrimination.
The article reviews the most important factors identified by cognitive psychology, such as the limitations of the mind, on how people, even experts in intelligence analysis, process incomplete and ambiguous information about military-political issues, processes, and phenomena to make judgments and conclusions in their reports to the state and military leadership, partner services and headquarters of NATO and the EU. The specific features distorting the perception and interpretation of information are examined, and practical examples and evidence are given for some of the factors.
Purpose of the paper: This paper explores the concept of antifragility and its application to crisis communication in the contemporary business environment marked by perpetual disruptions and uncertainty. Methodology: Qualitative research methodology was employed, involving 22 in-depth interviews with industry professionals. Data was analyzed using grounded theory and theories-in-use approaches. Findings: The study identifies six critical factors for antifragile crisis communication: experimentation, option generation, stress, redundancy, subtraction, and creativity. These factors contribute to an organization's ability to thrive in the face of ongoing disruptions, aligning with the principles of antifragility. Research limits: The research is based on qualitative data from a specific set of participants and may not be fully generalizable. Further quantitative research could validate these findings. Practical implications: Organizations can enhance their crisis communication strategies by integrating the identified factors, promoting adaptability, and leveraging uncertainty to thrive in the new business environment. Originality of the paper: This research offers a novel perspective by applying antifragility principles to crisis communication, bridging the gap in existing literature and providing valuable insights into managing crises in the contemporary business landscape.
Purpose
This study aims to examine the over 60-year evolution of behavioral accounting research (BAR), with the main aim of critically and accurately tracing its past, present and future.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used Scopus and Google Scholar databases to collect 2,263 articles of BAR published on relevant accounting journals. Thus, this study used Bibliometrix to provide a temporal overview of articles and a temporally oriented network co-occurrence analysis of BAR topics.
Findings
This study retraces the history of BAR since its origins and, also on the basis of triggering events inside (e.g. Nobel Prizes for behavioral economics studies) and outside (e.g. accounting scandals) the academic debate, this study critically discusses the evolution and interconnections of BAR topics. Then, future research is addressed toward main promising avenues, thus integrating recent technological applications into the behavioral accounting experimental designs to improve their external validity, exploring the potential positive effects of professionals’ heuristics in performing accounting tasks under certain environmental conditions, exploiting behavioral accounting frameworks to analyze and improve sustainability reporting and sustainability performance management.
Originality/value
Although BAR is rich of contributions, including subfields and contaminations, it lacks a holistic evaluation of its origins, development and future perspectives. In this vein, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to use a bibliometric analysis to evaluate the evolution of BAR.
The way political identity serves as a foundation for political polarization in the United States permits elites to extend conflict rapidly to new issue areas. Further, the types of cognitive mechanisms and shortcuts used in the politically polarized information environment are similar to some of those used in risk perception. Consequently, political elites may easily create partisan risk positions, largely through politically focused social amplification of risk. The COVID‐19 pandemic provided a natural experiment for testing predictions about such risk politics. We asked questions about pandemic‐related views, behaviors, and policies at the outset of the pandemic in April 2020 and again in September 2020 via public opinion surveys. Our data and analyses focus primarily on a single state, with some analysis extended to four states. We begin by demonstrating strong linkages between political partisan identification on the one hand and support for co‐partisan elites, use of partisan information sources, and support for co‐partisan policies on the other hand. We then find evidence that pandemic risk positions correspond with partisan information sources and find support for a mechanism involving partisan‐tinted evaluation of elite cues. Partisan risk positions quickly became part of the larger polarized structure of political support and views. Finally, our evidence shows on the balance that partisan risk positions related to the pandemic coalesced and strengthened over time. Overall, while self‐identified Democrats consistently viewed the coronavirus as the primary threat, self‐identified Republicans quickly pivoted toward threats to their freedoms and to the economy.
This thesis adds to the growing body of research relating to the sexual and
criminal exploitation of young people in the extrafamilial context. The issue of
child exploitation is a relatively recent development in child protection in
England. Though a range of studies have explored young people’s experiences
and the effectiveness of professional interventions, there remains a limited
focus on the role of the social worker as the lead safeguarding professional.
This study argues that social workers hold a unique position in safeguarding
young people at risk of child exploitation because of the legal duties bestowed
on local authorities and their social workers.
Using constructivist grounded theory techniques, this study explores influences
on social work decision-making. The research presents primary data from two
contrasting local authorities in England. The research activities included the
analysis of fifteen social work case files, where child sexual or criminal
exploitation was a principal concern. The findings from the case file analysis
were subsequently sense checked in two focus groups. The twelve research
participants attending the focus groups were qualified social workers.
The study found that practices usually associated with traditional social work
(including bureaucratic and managerialist systems) also influenced social work
decision-making in the emerging area of child exploitation. The prescriptive
nature of such practices routinely prioritised professionals’ views over those of
young people, undermining opportunities for participation. Additionally, the
study argues that a gender-biased approach to social work legislation and
policy development has placed boys and young men, particularly Black boys
and young men, at an increased risk of receiving a compromised safeguarding
response. This thesis is exploratory and systems-based in its contribution. It
explores influences on social workers via their interactions with young people,
multi-agency colleagues, managers, and the social work profession. While this
thesis aims to contribute towards developments in social work research, policy
and practice, the findings may also interest other professionals working in child
exploitation.
Three experiments that address the following fundamental questions about confidence judgment are presented: (1) What cues form the basis for confidence in choice? And (2) what are the cognitive processes that drive choice and confidence responses in general knowledge tasks? Critical manipulations in the experiments included reasons generation, priming of options, and intensive demands to recall relevant domain knowledge. Behavioral response and process tracing results from the three experiments provided evidence for a two-stage process wherein a preliminary choice stage is driven largely by familiarity, and an ensuing evaluation stage is determined mainly by accessibility and arguments for the preliminary choice.
Sieck, W. R., & Yates, J. F. (2024). Cues and processes underlying confidence in choice. PsyArXiv preprint. https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/fmrw5
Brazil currently has one of the most extensive uranium resources in the world, with about 245 thousand tons of contained uranium (U3O8). However, the country has the potential to be among the three largest reserves globally. The Brazilian Nuclear Policy, recently published, highlights, among its objectives, to promote research
and prospection of nuclear ores in the country and to encourage the national production of nuclear ores. This work presents a map of favorability for uranium deposits in the country on a continental scale, divided by geological domains, called "geocompartments", and a synthesis of the current knowledge, to subsidize the
decision-making of the public power and to promote the mineral industry to expand the national resources. The Favorability map uses the knowledge-driven analysis manual or cognitive, the 15 types of uranium deposits (IAEA) are grouped into six sets of mineral systems: i) igneous, ii) metamorphic/metasomatic, iii) Proterozoic
unconformity, iv) paleoconglomerate, v) sedimentary and vi) superficial. Based on the knowledge of specialists, the main elements associated with the mineralizing processes in terms of source, transport, and deposition of uranium were listed. These items received subjective probability scores between (0) and (1). The value obtained was multiplied by the quality factor, which qualifies potential deposits in terms of grade and average tonnage. The final favorability score results of the sum of the scores of the six systems for each geocompartment. The map highlights areas with high and very high favorability where two or more uranium mineral systems occur, in general, with their respective high ratings. The high favorability scores also indicate areas with a potential overlapping of different uranium mineral systems, generally observed in relevant uranium deposits, such as the Itataia deposit in Santa Quitéria-CE. In addition, due to the quality factor, the multiplier applied in each system, the areas with the highest scores may also indicate a potential for deposits with better grade tonnage relations. The favorability modeling on a continental scale highlighted several areas, such as Carajás, Santana do Araguaia Domains, Iriri-Xingu, Gavião Block, and Escudo Sul-Rio- Grandense/Camaquã, which will be the object of a more detailed study at province, district, or deposit-scale with the continuity of the work program. Favorability maps, as well as other spatial data modeling products, are tools to assist decision-making
in prioritizing areas for mineral exploration and, thereby, reducing exploration risk.
The article will present an intertextual encounter between Spinoza’s approach and the work of Kahneman and others. on cognitive bias. The discussion will focus on the link between imagination and memory and space and time as well as the former’s association with representativeness, availability, and occasion noise as the causes of bias in both systems of thought. Spinoza determined that the manner of human thought has common traits but also that there is thought which accords with reality alongside thought which is erroneous. Like Spinoza, contemporary theory also seeks to address the causes of such erroneous thought and to offer remedies for its prevention.
The lines on a map distort political influence, but not as much as the lobbying of paid lobbyists. Politicians receive bids from bidders in all-pay auctions where the highest bid usually wins; The highest bidder is often the paid lobbyist who wants their voice to be louder than the voters.The paid lobbyist maximises self-interest. The paid lobbyist maximises political influence.The paid lobbyist wants the bounty, and they often get it. When a government listens to lobbyists rather than regulators, voters pay the price. This essay concerns the lobbying by banks where the cost was very high.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employs emission scenarios to explore a range of future climate outcomes but refrains from assigning probabilities to individual scenarios. However, IPCC authors have their own views on the likelihood of different climate outcomes, which are valuable to understand because authors possess both expert insight and considerable influence. Here we report the results of a survey of 211 IPCC authors about the likelihood of four key climate outcomes. We found that most authors are skeptical that warming will be limited to the Paris targets of well below 2 °C, but are more optimistic that net zero CO2 emissions will be reached during the second half of this century. When asked about the beliefs of their peers, author responses showed strong correlations between personal and peer beliefs, suggesting that participants with extreme beliefs perceive their own estimates as closer to the community average than they actually are.
Purpose- The paper aims to compile and synthesize past and present research on Behavioral Finance by reviewing the available literature. This will provide quick and easy access for future researchers and for doctoral thesis. The study emphasizes the classification of literature to offer a comprehensive view of Behavioral Finance, analyzing the findings and results of various studies for a thorough review. Design/Methodology/Approach- A comprehensive search was conducted across a variety of sources to review the existing literature on Behavioral Finance. From thousands of papers, 64 were selected for the present study, focusing on the impact of behavioral biases on individual investors decisions and the influence of demographic factors on these biases. These selected papers, which include both research studies and literature reviews, form the sample for this study. To assess the status of research on the topic, these papers are classified based on various variables, such as behavioral biases, investors investment decisions, and demographic factors Social factors and economic factors on investment. Findings -This paper categorizes the existing literature on Behavioral Finance and finds that research in this field continues to be highly sought after in developed countries. Additionally, the study notes a significant increase in Behavioral Finance research in emerging economies in recent years. Several other important findings were also uncovered in the analysis. Originality/Value- This paper offers a comprehensive collection and classification of literature on Behavioral Finance, providing valuable insights for academicians, professionals, and future researchers. It serves as a useful resource for understanding current research trends and identifying potential areas for future investigation in the field.
We explore the impact of narratives on beliefs and policy opinions through a survey experiment that exposes US subjects to two media-based explanations of the causes of COVID-19. The Lab Narrative ascribes the pandemic to human error and scientific misconduct in a Chinese lab, and the Nature Narrative describes the natural causes of the virus. First, we find that both narratives influence individual beliefs about COVID-19 origins. More precisely, individual beliefs tend to be swayed in the direction of the version of the facts to which one is more exposed generating a potential source of polarization by exposure. Second, only the Nature Narrative unidirectionally affects policy opinions by increasing people’s preferences toward climate protection and trust in science, therefore representing a channel for one-sided polarization by exposure. Finally, we also explore the existence of heterogeneous effects of our narratives, finding that the Lab Narrative leads to opinion polarization between Republican- and Democratic-leaning states on climate change and foreign trade. This indicates the existence of an additional channel that can lead policy opinions to diverge, which we denote polarization by social context.
Cel: Celem artykułu jest ocena wpływu dwóch czynników – regulacji prawnych i błędów poznawczych decydentów na wybór uproszczeń w polityce rachunkowości jednostek mikro i małych.Metodyka badań: Badanie empiryczne polegało na analizie treści zasad (polityki) rachunkowości mikro- i małych spółek z ograniczoną odpowiedzialnością w Polsce pod kątem wybranych uproszczeń. Dobór i losowanie jednostek z populacji przeprowadzono, korzystając z bazy Orbis Europe, liczebność próby badawczej określono na 100 jednostek.Wyniki badań: Zaledwie połowa uprawnionych spółek korzysta z prawa do sporządzania skróconych sprawozdań finansowych. Ponadto jednostki stosują uproszczenia, do których nie mają prawa: ograniczenia stosowania zasady ostrożności oraz bezwarunkowe stosowanie wyłącznie podatkowych stawek amortyzacji do wyceny środków trwałych nie są dozwolone dla badanych spółek.Wnioski: Przeprowadzone badania wskazują, że osoby odpowiedzialne za politykę rachunkowości, decydując o zakresie stosowanych uproszczeń, popełniają błędy poznawcze wynikające z myślenia heurystycznego. Są to m.in.: pułapka status quo, efekt pierwszeństwa oraz efekt potwierdzenia.Wkład w rozwój dyscypliny: Oryginalność artykułu opiera się na wynikach empirycznego badania uproszczeń w polityce rachunkowości jednostek mikro i małych oraz na wytłumaczeniu tych wyników błędami poznawczymi decydentów. Wnioski z przeprowadzonych badań mogą być wykorzystane zarówno przez ustawodawcę do rewizji obecnie obowiązujących przepisów prawa, jak i przez kierowników jednostek odpowiedzialnych za kształt polityki rachunkowości i zakres stosowanych uproszczeń.
We explore the impact of narratives on beliefs and policy opinions through a survey experiment that exposes US subjects to two media-based explanations of the causes of COVID-19. The Lab Narrative ascribes the pandemic to human error and scientific misconduct in a Chinese lab, and the Nature Narrative describes the natural causes of the virus. First, we find that both narratives influence individual beliefs about COVID-19 origins. More precisely, individual beliefs tend to be swayed in the direction of the version of the facts to which one is more exposed generating a potential source of polarization by exposure. Second, only the Nature Narrative unidirectionally affects policy opinions by increasing people’s preferences toward climate protection and trust in science, therefore representing a channel for one-sided polarization by exposure. Finally, we also explore the existence of heterogeneous effects of our narratives, finding that the Lab Narrative leads to opinion polarization between Republican- and Democratic-leaning states on climate change and foreign trade. This indicates the existence of an additional channel that can lead policy opinions to diverge, which we denote polarization by social context.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.