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The Evolving Definition of Sepsis

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  • SwitchPoint Ventures

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Sepsis affects millions of people worldwide each year. It occurs when a normal human immune response to a bacterial, viral or fungal infection becomes dysfunctional and triggers widespread inflammation that results in severe tissue damage that leads to organ failure, shock, and death. Sepsis requires immediate treatment and has a high readmission rate for survivors. It is also one of the most expensive conditions to treat. In 2013, there were more than 1.6 million cases of sepsis in the United States with a financial cost of more than $23 billion. Sepsis was first described in antiquity, and given its current name, by the ancient Greek physician Hippocrates. Despite its long medical history, severity, and financial burden, the causes of sepsis are not well understood, and there is no standard approach to diagnosis and treatment. The definition of sepsis, the characterization of its clinical stages, and sepsis monitoring tools have changed three times in the past 25 years, most recently in March 2016. The universal adoption of this latest definition, sepsis-3, and a screening tool, qSOFA, are currently under debate in the medical community. A means to rapidly identify and treat sepsis could reduce the five million deaths due to sepsis each year worldwide. This paper reviews the evolution of the definition of sepsis and the controversy surrounding the sepsis-3 definition and the sepsis screening tool, qSOFA.
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International Clinical Pathology Journal

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Volume 2 Issue 6 - 2016

2
3
4

 Damian Mingle, Chief Data
Scientist at WPC Healthcare 1802 Williamson Court,
Brentwood, Tennessee, USA,
Email:
 September 20, 2016 |  October 19,
2016
Review Article
Int Clin Pathol J 2016, 2(6): 00063
Abstract
Sepsis affects millions of people worldwide each year. It occurs when a normal
human immune response to a bacterial, viral or fungal infection becomes
dysfunctional and triggers widespread inflammation that results in severe tissue
damage that leads to organ failure, shock, and death. Sepsis requires immediate
treatment and has a high readmission rate for survivors. It is also one of the most
expensive conditions to treat. In 2013, there were more than 1.6 million cases of
sepsis in the United States with a financial cost of more than $23 billion. Sepsis
was first described in antiquity, and given its current name, by the ancient Greek
physician Hippocrates. Despite its long medical history, severity, and financial
burden, the causes of sepsis are not well understood, and there is no standard
approach to diagnosis and treatment. The definition of sepsis, the characterization
of its clinical stages, and sepsis monitoring tools have changed three times in the
past 25 years, most recently in March 2016. The universal adoption of this latest
definition, sepsis-3, and a screening tool, qSOFA, are currently under debate in
the medical community. A means to rapidly identify and treat sepsis could reduce
the five million deaths due to sepsis each year worldwide. This paper reviews the
evolution of the definition of sepsis and the controversy surrounding the sepsis-3
definition and the sepsis screening tool, qSOFA.
Keywords: Sepsis; Septic shock; Severe sepsis; SIRS; Critical care; Electronic
healthcare records; Sepsis-3; qSOFA
Abbreviations: APACHE: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health
Evaluation; EWS: Early Warning Score; HUCP: The Healthcare
Cost and Utilization Project; ICU: Intensive Care Unit; MEDS:
      
Early Warning System; MIMIC: Medical Information Mart for
Intensive Care; PIRO: Predisposition, Infection, Response to the
infectious challenge, and Organ dysfunction; qSOFA: quick Sepsis-
 
Response Syndrome; SOFA: the Sepsis-related Organ Failure

Introduction
Sepsis is one of the oldest, costliest, and most devastating
        
in ancient Egypt almost 5,000 years ago and given its current
name by the Greek physician Hippocrates about 2,400 years ago
         
States was more than $23 billion. Despite its long history and its
current impact on society, sepsis as a medical condition is not
        
there is no gold standard diagnostic test for sepsis, nor is there
a universally adopted treatment [6]. Along with revising the
     
identify sepsis. A medical task force utilized the recent availability
of large datasets of patients to compare and validate several
screening tools for sepsis. These tools were used to explore more
than one million patient electronic healthcare records (EHR) with
a known number of patients with sepsis [7]. The use of a data
science approach to validating a screening tool for sepsis is a
promising area of research. In this paper we describe the severity

e Severity of Sepsis
     
rates. Worldwide, an estimated 31.5 million people are treated
each year for sepsis of which 5.3 million end up dying from sepsis
[8]. In the United States, there are about 1.6 million cases of sepsis
each year with more than 258,000 deaths, which averages to one
    
of treating sepsis is staggering. The 2015 Healthcare Cost and
Utilization Project (HUCP) Statistical Brief places sepsis as the
most expensive condition treated in US hospitals at $23.7 billion
[10]. Sepsis accounts for 40 percent of all ICU costs in the United
States, and the average cost for treatment of ICU patients with
sepsis is six times greater than that for ICU patients that do not
have sepsis. Additionally, patients discharged after a serious
bout of sepsis have a 62 percent readmission rate [11,12]. This
information on the severity of sepsis is summarized in Table 1.
Notable facts about sepsis.
 
High cost to treat Most expensive condition treated in the
United States: $23.7B
High ICU costs 40% of all ICU costs
High mortality rate 60% for septic shock
High readmission rate 62%
Rapid decline Move to septic shock within 36 hours of

Challenging No standard diagnostic test, often appears
with co morbid conditions
2/6
Copyright:
©2016 Gary et al.
10.15406/icpjl.2016.02.00063

Research has shown early detection of sepsis is essential in
saving lives and reducing costs [6,13,14]. The Sepsis Alliance
estimates that 80percent of deaths due to sepsis could be
prevented with rapid diagnosis and treatment [9].
e Evolving Denition and Monitoring of Sepsis

was thought to be an internal rotting or decaying. This was due

word for decay-, meaning decay or to rot-to this
medical condition. The development of medical hygiene and
the germ theory in the late 1800s by Louis Pasteur, Joseph
Lister, and Robert Kock helped change the viewpoint of sepsis
from internal decay to originating from a harmful
microorganism. In 1914, 
     sepsis when he wrote, “Sepsis is
present if a focus has developed from which pathogenic bacteria,
constantly or periodically, invade the blood stream in such a
way that this causes subjective and objective symptoms” [16].
As sepsis became more common in ICUs, the role of the patient’s
immune response became a greater focal point [17]. In 1992, a
conference was held by the Society of Critical Care Medicine and
the American College of Chest Physicians to address the lack of
     
this created in studies and treatment. This conference and its
outcomes are now referred to as sepsis-1. This was followed by
sepsis-2 in 2002 and sepsis-3 in 2016.
A. Key outcomes from thesepsis-1 conference (Bone et al. [17]):
a)       
response syndrome” (SIRS) was considered a clinical stage
of sepsis.
b) 
c)     
to diagnose sepsis.
d) The terms “severe sepsis” and “septic shock” were
introduced to differentiate degrees of severity.
B. 
a)       
response syndrome (SIRS) to infection.
b) Severe sepsis is sepsis associated with organ dysfunction,
hypo per fusion, or hypotension.
c) Septic shock is sepsis-induced hypotension persisting

The sepsis-1 conference also established four clinical stages or
   
        
 
by the presence of at least two of the following four indicators:
(1) a body temperature above 38.0 °C or below 36.0 °C; (2) a
heart rate above 90 beats/minute; (3) a respiratory rate above
20 breaths per minute; (4) a white blood cell count higher than
12,000 or lower than 4,000 cells per micro liter.
         
changes from SIRS to sepsis. As sepsis progresses from one stage
to another, there is a corresponding increase in the mortality
rate with septic shock having the highest. Table 2 lists the 30-
day mortality rates published for SIRS and sepsis [18] and those
published for severe sepsis and septic shock [19].
Each of the four stages listed in Table 2 have been used at
          
   
untreated the smell of rotting became apparent. This would be

focused on the infection in stage 2 until this shifted to stage 1,

beginning of organ failure in stage 3, severe sepsis.
Mortality rates within 30 days of diagnosis.
   
 7% 16% 40% > 50%
 Flu-like symptoms SIRS + infection Sepsis + signs of organ
failure Persistent severe sepsis



6
Sepsis-1 &-2

Pre-Sepsis-1

Sepsis-3
5
Hippocrates



be due to a
wide variety of other medical
conditions.
Time:
It could take days
to verify source of
infection.
Treatment:
Limited treatment
options when organs
begin to fail.
High mortality rate:
Often too late for
successful treatment.

3/6
Copyright:
©2016 Gary et al.
10.15406/icpjl.2016.02.00063
A. 

sponsored by the Society of Critical Care Medicine, European
Society of Intensive Care Medicine, and American College of
Clinical Pharmacy, American Thoracic Society, and the Surgical
Infection Society. The consensus task force was formed to
review the clinical progress made in treating sepsis and sepsis-1

a)        
limitations;
b) Expanding the list of diagnostic criteria for sepsis; and
c) Recognizing the separate characteristics or stages of sepsis
designated by the acronym PIRO: redisposition, infection,
response to the infectious challenge, and organ dysfunction
[20].
The expanded list of diagnostic criteria of sepsis included
21 bedside or laboratory tests designed to indicate either

 
Since the introduction of sepsis-2, there has been an increase
in the use of organ failure or mortality scoring systems also
known as early warning scores (EWS) systems. These EWS
systems are used in most ICUs as a method to triage the severity
of critically ill patients. They are bedside evaluations designed
to provide a likely mortality rate within 28 to 30 days. Several of
these EWS systems were developed in line with the sepsis-1 and
  
to monitor sepsis include:
a. APACHE II (the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health
Evaluation II) Score, introduced in 1985,
b.        
 
[21].
c. MEDS (see Table 3 & 4), and
d. SOFA (the Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment) [22].
The MEDS EWS checklist.
MEDS’ score and corresponding mortality rate.
4/6
Copyright:
©2016 Gary et al.
 10.15406/icpjl.2016.02.00063

To illustrate an EWS, the scores used to determine a
patient’s mortality rate using MEDS is shown below. Table 3 is
the checklist used to determine the score and Table 4 shows
the predicted mortality rate based on the score.
These EWS systems have helped identify the progress of
sepsis in patients and allowed ICUs to determine where to
deploy their   
  of sepsis, especially in the ICUs where up to 40
percent of the cost can be due to treating patients with sepsis.
Along with these early warning systems, sepsis awareness

Care Medicine and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine
provide direction for the Surviving Sepsis Campaign, which, in
2009, helped achieve a 25 percent reduction in sepsis mortality
through awareness and education about sepsis, especially among
healthcare providers [23]. The Sepsis Alliance, a voluntary health
organization founded in 2004, is raising awareness of sepsis
among healthcare providers and the general public. This included
launching sepsis awareness month, September, helping launch
the global sepsis alliance, the heroes of sepsis celebration, and
designating September 13 as world sepsis day. The hero of sepsis
celebration focuses on recognizing organizations and individuals
that have contributed to advancing sepsis research and education.
This event brings together survivors with healthcare providers.

the 2016 hero of sepsis.
C. 
In 2014, the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine
(ESICM) and the Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM)
convened a task force of 19 critical care, infectious disease,
surgical, and pulmonary specialists with the aim to update the

The sepsis-3 task force recognized sepsis as more complex
        
threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host
  
response resulting in organ failure from an infection is stressed
      
has been removed. The task force included advances made in
understanding the pathology, management, and epidemiology
of sepsis as well as an analysis of over one million patients. The
results published in the February 2016 issue of JAMA, the Journal
of the American Medical Association, reduced the clinical stages
in sepsis from the four described in Table 2 to the last two stages
[6]. The previous of clinical stage known as severe sepsis is now

organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to
 
in Table 5 below.
To determine which early warning signal to recommend, the
sepsis-3 task force compared a variety of EWS systems used to
monitor sepsis. The results showed that the qSOFA EWS
systems was similar to the accuracy in most EWS systems, but is
easier to use and more accurate in locations outside of or prior
to admissions into        
    suggests a high risk of poor outcome
and an indication that these patients have sepsis and should have
their lactate levels tested for evidence of organ dysfunction.

Key Feature 


1. Severe sepsis
2. Septic shock
Introduces a
new diagnostic
tool, quick
SOFA, or qSOFA
 is a life-threatening organ dysfunction
caused by a deregulated host response to
infection.
 is a subset of sepsis in which
particularly profound circulatory, cellular, and
metabolic abnormalities are associated with
a greater risk of mortality than with sepsis
alone.
qSOFA scoring.
Criteria Point Value
Altered mental status +1
Respiratory rate > or = 22 +1
Systolic blood pressure < or = 100 +1
To validate qSOFA as a screening and monitoring tool for sepsis,
scores were applied to a large set of electronic health
record data that contained known patients with sepsis. The
dataset used contained the electronic health record data of 1.3
million encounters from January 1, 2010, to December 31,
2012, at 12 community and academic hospitals within the
University of Pittsburgh Medical Center health system in
southwestern Pennsylvania were used for this comparison.
The predictive validity of qSOFA and other EWS tools were
compared by plotting the area under the receiver operating
characteristic curve (AUROC). The recent availability of a large
set of electronic health record data made this study possible.
D. 
   
and qSOFA has not been universally adopted. Several papers and
letters to the JAMA editor have raised concerns [5,24,25] A few
of 
a) A focus on adult patients without including newborn and
pediatric patients.
b) Research generated from patients in the United States and
Europe but not from economically poorer countries.
c) A task force without   

d) The change in the clinical stages of sepsis, making
    
past 25-year body of sepsis research focused on four clinical
      
clinical stages.
e) Too much reliance on qSOFA to diagnose sepsis.

5/6
Copyright:
©2016 Gary et al.
10.15406/icpjl.2016.02.00063
f) A lack of endorsement by all societies including the
Latin American Sepsis Institute, American College of
Chest Physicians, and    
.
Area of Promising Research in Sepsis
     
of sepsis, key advances in research continue. One of the areas
of promise is using data science approaches to mine insights
and knowledge from large databases of electronic healthcare
records. This was done to verify and test qSOFA and other EWS.
Several hospitals are now utilizing computational means to
monitor patients within the ICU. The availability of large sets of
digital healthcare records that can be analyzed with data science
approaches is able to provide a new approach to the rapid

MIMIC (edical Information art for Intensive Care) is a
large database freely available to researchers. It contains heath
data from over 40,000 ICU patients who stayed at Beth Israel
Deaconess Medical Center between 2001 and 2012. This database
contains lab results, electronic documentation, and bedside
monitor trends and waveforms. Several research teams have
explored the MIMIC database to better understand sepsis [26,30].

patient suffering will decrease.
Summary
        
        
software and other coding updates, the task force recommends
         
and 2001 iterations being recognized as Sepsis-1 and Sepsis-2,
respectively, to emphasize the need for future iterations [6].
          
   
        
         

  
again and this time the focus was on the patient’s systemic
      
was updated a fourth time to focus on organ dysfunction. The
   

sepsis-3 task force.

factors contributing to the medical condition known as sepsis.
These include (1) the pathogen that triggers sepsis; (2) the
patient’s immune response to the pathogen; and (3) the patient’s
medical history and condition at the time of sepsis. It is the
interplay between these factors that make each case of sepsis to
be somewhat unique to the individual and their current medical
condition.
      
healthcare providers to diagnosis and treat. These challenges
include:
a) 
b) Symptoms of other disorders mask that of sepsis (see
appendix A for list).
c) A low percentage of patients have sepsis (~2% of emergency
room patients have sepsis).
d) The rapidly progression of sepsis to a fatal outcome
e) A high mortality rate
Sepsis is often not suspected by heath care providers. The
clinical symptoms used in diagnosing sepsis (raised temperature,
increased breathing rate, and mental alertness) do not rule out
other common disorders. In fact, a number of disorders appear
as sepsis (see appendix A). Most of these disorders are seen in
a higher percentage of patients entering emergency rooms than
sepsis. As a result of these challenges, sepsis is often diagnosed
too late to save the patient, although awareness campaigns and

 
spite of these challenges, several investigators consider sepsis
reversible and preventable [28,29]. If sepsis can be rapidly
 
decrease. More exploration of large electronic patient databases
involving patients with sepsis, such as MIMIC, using data science
approaches is needed. Data science approaches, such as machine
learning, predictive analytics, and data mining, are beginning

of which should lead to insights into the best ways to identify,
monitor and treat for patients with sepsis.
Acknowledgment
The author would like to acknowledge MTSU, the WPC
Healthcare’s Visiting Scholar in Data Science program, the Sepsis
Alliance for providing insights, Sandra Wendel, Jeffry Porter
and Sarah Grotelueschen for their critical review of the paper.
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
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Copyright:
©2016 Gary et al.
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Care 52(6): 9-43.
10.15406/icpjl.2016.02.00063
Appendix(A:((
List(of(disorder(often(diagnosed(instead(of(sepsis*(
Meningitis!!
Intracranial/intraspinal!abscess!
Pericarditis!!
Acute!and!subacute!endocarditis!
Phlebitis!and!thrombophlebitis!Acute!
sinusitis!
Acute!pharyngitis!
Acute!tonsillitis!
Acute!laryngitis!and!tracheitis!Acute!
upper!respiratory!infections!!
Pneumococcal!pneumonia!
Other!bacterial!pneumonia!
Bronchopneumonia!
Pneumonia!
Bronchiectasis!
Empyema!
Abscess!of!lung!and!mediastinum!
Appendicitis!
Abscess!of!anal!and!rectal!regions!
Peritonitis!!
Infections!of!kidney!
Urethritis!!
Acute!salpingitis!and!oophoritis!
Inflammatory!diseases!of!prostate!
Inflammatory!diseases!of!uterus!!
Inflammatory!disease!of!cervix!
Inflammatory!disease!of!vagina!
Inflammatory!disease!of!vulva!
Cellulitis!and!abscess!of!finger!Acute!
lymphadenitis,!unspecified!
Osteomyelitis!periostitis!!
Other!functional!bladder!disorders!
Abscess!of!liver!
Portal!pyemia!
Acute!cholecystitis!
Urinary!tract!infection!
Pyogenic!arthritis!
Bacteremia!
Postoperative!infection!!Bronchitis!!
Diverticulitis!!
Perforation!of!intestine
Cholera!!
Typhoid!fever!
Salmonella!gastroenteritis!
Shigella!dysenteriae!
Staphylococcal!food!poisoning!
Escherichia!coli!infections!
Colitis!
Enteritis!and!gastroenteritis!
Tuberculosis!!
Bubonic!plague!
Cutaneous!anthrax!
Brucellosis!
Glanders!
Melioidosis!
Listeriosis!
Leprosy!
Pulmonary!mycobacteria!diseases!
Faucial!diphtheria!
Whooping!cough!!
Streptococcal!sore!throat!
Erysipelas!
Meningococcal!infection!
Tetanus!
Erythrasma!
Gas!gangrene!
Streptococcus!infection!!
Syphilis!
Gonococcal!infections!
Leptospirosis!icterohemorrhagica!
Vincent's!angina!
Yaws!
Primary!lesions!of!pinta!
Other!spirochetal!infection!
Tinea!barbae!and!tinea!capitis!Dermatomycosis!
Candidal!
Coccidioidomycosis!
Histoplasmosis!
Blastomycosis!
Other!mycoses!
Opportunistic!mycoses!
Bacterial!meningitis!
*This!list!is!adapted!from!Iwashyna!et!al.,!2014 [40].

10.15406/icpjl.2016.02.00063
... This is especially true when model definitions evolve or can change in many ways. Examples include International Classification of disease (ICD) codes (Wikipedia, 2021a) that went through multiple versions through the years, or even a disease definition that has evolved for sepsis (Gary et al., 2021). Even outcomes of clinical trials change if counted using different definitions as seen in (clinicaltrials.gov/NCT00379769 ...
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Infectious diseases and their pandemics periodically attract public interests due to difficulty in treating the patients and the consequent high mortality. Sepsis caused by an imbalanced systemic inflammatory response to infection often leads to organ failure and death. The current therapeutic intervention mainly includes “the sepsis bundles,” antibiotics (antibacterial, antiviral, and antifungal), intravenous fluids for resuscitation, and surgery, which have significantly improved the clinical outcomes in past decades; however, the patients with fulminant sepsis are still in desperate need of alternative therapeutic approaches. One of the potential supportive therapies, extracorporeal blood treatment, has emerged and been developed for improving the current therapeutic efficacy. Here, I overview how the treatment of infectious diseases has been assisted with the extracorporeal adjuvant therapy and the potential utility of various nanobiotechnology and microfluidic approaches for developing new auxiliary therapeutic methods.
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IMPORTANCE: Septic shock currently refers to a state of acute circulatory failure associated with infection. Emerging biological insights and reported variation in epidemiology challenge the validity of this definition. OBJECTIVE: To develop a new definition and clinical criteria for identifying septic shock in adults. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The Society of Critical Care Medicine and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine convened a task force (19 participants) to revise current sepsis/septic shock definitions. Three sets of studies were conducted: (1) a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies in adults published between January 1, 1992, and December 25, 2015, to determine clinical criteria currently reported to identify septic shock and inform the Delphi process; (2) a Delphi study among the task force comprising 3 surveys and discussions of results from the systematic review, surveys, and cohort studies to achieve consensus on a new septic shock definition and clinical criteria; and (3) cohort studies to test variables identified by the Delphi process using Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) (2005-2010; n = 28 150), University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) (2010-2012; n = 1 309 025), and Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) (2009-2013; n = 1 847 165) electronic health record (EHR) data sets. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Evidence for and agreement on septic shock definitions and criteria. RESULTS: The systematic review identified 44 studies reporting septic shock outcomes (total of 166 479 patients) from a total of 92 sepsis epidemiology studies reporting different cutoffs and combinations for blood pressure (BP), fluid resuscitation, vasopressors, serum lactate level, and base deficit to identify septic shock. The septic shock–associated crude mortality was 46.5% (95% CI, 42.7%-50.3%), with significant between-study statistical heterogeneity (I2 = 99.5%; τ2 = 182.5; P < .001). The Delphi process identified hypotension, serum lactate level, and vasopressor therapy as variables to test using cohort studies. Based on these 3 variables alone or in combination, 6 patient groups were generated. Examination of the SSC database demonstrated that the patient group requiring vasopressors to maintain mean BP 65 mm Hg or greater and having a serum lactate level greater than 2 mmol/L (18 mg/dL) after fluid resuscitation had a significantly higher mortality (42.3% [95% CI, 41.2%-43.3%]) in risk-adjusted comparisons with the other 5 groups derived using either serum lactate level greater than 2 mmol/L alone or combinations of hypotension, vasopressors, and serum lactate level 2 mmol/L or lower. These findings were validated in the UPMC and KPNC data sets. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Based on a consensus process using results from a systematic review, surveys, and cohort studies, septic shock is defined as a subset of sepsis in which underlying circulatory, cellular, and metabolic abnormalities are associated with a greater risk of mortality than sepsis alone. Adult patients with septic shock can be identified using the clinical criteria of hypotension requiring vasopressor therapy to maintain mean BP 65 mm Hg or greater and having a serum lactate level greater than 2 mmol/L after adequate fluid resuscitation.
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IMPORTANCE: The Third International Consensus Definitions Task Force defined sepsis as “life-threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response to infection.” The performance of clinical criteria for this sepsis definition is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the validity of clinical criteria to identify patients with suspected infection who are at risk of sepsis. DESIGN, SETTINGS AND POPULATION: Among 1.3 million electronic health record encounters from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2012, at 12 hospitals in southwestern Pennsylvania, we identified those with suspected infection in whom to compare criteria. Confirmatory analyses were performed in 4 data sets of 706 399 out-of-hospital and hospital encounters at 165 US and non-US hospitals ranging from January 1, 2008, until December 31, 2013. EXPOSURES: Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) score, and a new model derived using multivariable logistic regression in a split sample, the quick Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score (range, 0-3 points, with 1 point each for systolic hypotension [≤100 mm Hg], tachypnea [≥22/min], or altered mentation). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For construct validity, pairwise agreement was assessed. For predictive validity, the discrimination for outcomes (primary: in-hospital mortality; secondary: in-hospital mortality or intensive care unit [ICU] length of stay ≥3 days) more common in sepsis than uncomplicated infection was determined. Results were expressed as the fold change in outcome over deciles of baseline risk of death and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: In the primary cohort, 148 907 encounters had suspected infection (n = 74 453 derivation; n = 74 454 validation), of whom 6347 (4%) died. Among ICU encounters in the validation cohort (n = 7932 with suspected infection, of whom 1289 [16%] died), the predictive validity for in-hospital mortality was lower for SIRS (AUROC = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.62-0.66) and qSOFA (AUROC = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64-0.68) vs SOFA (AUROC = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.73-0.76; P < .001 for both) or LODS (AUROC = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73-0.76; P < .001 for both). Among non-ICU encounters in the validation cohort (n = 66 522 with suspected infection, of whom 1886 [3%] died), qSOFA had predictive validity (AUROC = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.82) that was greater than SOFA (AUROC = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.78-0.80; P < .001) and SIRS (AUROC = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.77; P < .001). Relative to qSOFA scores lower than 2, encounters with qSOFA scores of 2 or higher had a 3- to 14-fold increase in hospital mortality across baseline risk deciles. Findings were similar in external data sets and for the secondary outcome. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among ICU encounters with suspected infection, the predictive validity for in-hospital mortality of SOFA was not significantly different than the more complex LODS but was statistically greater than SIRS and qSOFA, supporting its use in clinical criteria for sepsis. Among encounters with suspected infection outside of the ICU, the predictive validity for in-hospital mortality of qSOFA was statistically greater than SOFA and SIRS, supporting its use as a prompt to consider possible sepsis.
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To the Editor Dr Singer and colleagues1 reevaluated and updated the definitions of sepsis and septic shock using literature reviews, Delphi surveys of experts, and studies of several large databases. Despite some improvements, such as easier-to-use terms (ie, sepsis rather than severe sepsis) and development of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, a rapid bedside score without blood tests, we have several concerns.
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Objective: To develop high-performance early sepsis prediction technology for the general patient population. Methods: Retrospective analysis of adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (from the MIMIC II dataset) who were not septic at the time of admission. Results: A sepsis early warning algorithm, InSight, was developed and applied to the prediction of sepsis up to three hours prior to a patient's first five hour Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) episode. When applied to a never-before-seen set of test patients, InSight predictions demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.89-0.91) and a specificity of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.80-0.82), exceeding or rivaling that of existing biomarker detection methods. Across predictive times up to three hours before a sustained SIRS event, InSight maintained an average area under the ROC curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.80-0.86). Analysis of patient sepsis risk showed that contributions from the coevolution of multiple risk factors were more important than the contributions from isolated individual risk factors when making predictions further in advance. Conclusions: Sepsis can be predicted at least three hours in advance of onset of the first five hour SIRS episode, using only nine commonly available vital signs, with better performance than methods in standard practice today. High-order correlations of vital sign measurements are key to this prediction, which improves the likelihood of early identification of at-risk patients.