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Hydrological hazard assessment: THE 2014–15 Malaysia floods
Abstract
This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations on the identification of standards and metrics for assessing the impact of hydrological hazards. The economic evaluation of flood damage cost model (EFDC-Model) attempts to estimate the impact of water occurrence, movement, and distribution on GNP growth. The model is based on seven basic indicators: (i) the national precipitation growth rate (∆Pi); (ii) the main factors which generate large precipitation (∆Li); (iii) the sinking magnitudes levels rate (ST); (iv) the national floods recurrence rate (FT); (v) the floods devastation rate (Dk); (vi) the economic desgrowth from floods devastation rate (-δf); and (vii) the floods damage surface. The model investigates the recent floods in the Malaysian states of Kelantan and Terengganu for the period 2014-2015.
... Malaysia is a country that is located in the equatorial section and has a tropical rainforest climate. Generally, as a country prone to changes in the northeast monsoon winds, Malaysia is also exposed to heavy rains, a natural factor that causes floods, landslides, and water surges [1]. In addition, due to global warming, the climate becomes unpredictable. ...
The age of spatial information has undoubtedly unlocked the potential in visualising, investigating, and forecasting natural disasters, especially for policymakers. From this viewpoint, the implementation of spatial data has drastically transformed the traditions through which human civilisations embrace natural disaster management policies to reduce loss of life and economic losses. Unfortunately, each natural disaster is harmed varied and has different impacts locally. The various environmental and climate factors for mega-landform diversity countries like Malaysia play a crucial role in causing natural disasters and limiting the agency’s ability to obtain geomorphological spatial information during and after the incident. Therefore, this paper will analyse the constraint faced by Department of Survey and Mapping Malaysia (JUPEM) in providing spatial data for stakeholders based on a case study of natural disasters in Gunung Jerai, Kedah. All six (6) identified constraints, including time, climate, system, data, equipment, and human constraints, were examined. The opportunities to enhance the existing JUPEMs’ policies for natural disasters were highlighted from the JUPEM perspective. The prospects for empowering Subject Matter Expert (SMEs), equipment maintenance and improvement, annual disaster preparation, and enhancement of JUPEMs’ Peraturan Tetap Operasi (PTO) for disaster management were discussed in this paper.
... The aftermath of flooding damages assessed by the Malaysian authorities hiked to one billion ringgits ($284 million USD), from which, 100 million ringgits disposed just to repair roads in Kelantan and 132 million ringgits to repair roads in Terengganu (Ruiz Estrada et al., 2017). Some other recorded flooding history are shown in the Table 1 below. ...
Flood is an annual disaster in Malaysia, especially in the east coast region. Recently, other regions in Malaysia have also experience devastating flood. A flood aerial monitoring is one of the approaches that involved in the flood disaster management. Compared to space borne remote sensing, aerial platforms are much reliable to obtain higher spatial resolution and real time data. Due to cloud coverage and revisit limitations, space borne remote sensing approach is a less desirable option for flood monitoring. In this paper, a review of existing aerial platforms that perform remote sensing task under various weather conditions, specifically for flood monitoring is presented. There are four types of aerial platforms being reviewed, which are rotary wings, fixed wings, blimps and helikites. The main criteria of the review are the payload capacity, endurance (flight time), altitudes, tolerable wind speed, cost, vertical take-off and landing ability, and the ability to perform under various weather conditions, such as heavy precipitation and winds. From this review, the applications of aerial platform in recent studies never mentioned the capability of aerial platform used in such weather conditions. From all types of aerial platform discussed, helikite seems to be the most suitable to fly in extreme weather. The only drawback is that helikite has mobility issue since it is tethered to the ground. The application of helikite is useful for a small area coverage of flood monitoring. The authors will continue the study to evaluate the reliability of helikite in performing such task in the future.
... Flood is one of the most common and serious natural disasters in the world (Motevalli and Vafakhah 2016;Uysal et al. 2018;Kucuk et al. 2020). It may give rise to destruction of property and loss of lives (Estrada et al. 2017;Fonseca et al. 2018;Diakakis et al. 2019). Flood hazard assessment is to establish disaster evaluation model as a decision basis for managing flood Liu and He 2018;Miranda and Ferreira 2019). ...
The target of flood hazard assessment is to establish appropriate casualty evaluation models for managing flood and alleviating loss affected by flood. Existing challenges on evaluating flood hazard level focus on how to achieve a stable and high-resolution result according to the incompatibilities between multiple attribute indicators. Base on the chaotic optimization theory, this study presents a chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) algorithm to deal with a fuzzy clustering iterative model (CPSO-FCI) for evaluating flood hazards. By using a celebrated logistic chaotic map and a penalty function, the target function can be tackled more perfectly. The effectiveness of the novel hybrid method is evaluated by three representative test functions and two sets of practical flood disaster samples in China. Simulation results and comparisons show that the presented CPSO based on the logistic map is competitive and stable in performance with standard particle swarm optimization (PSO) and other advanced PSO-type approaches introduced in the literature. High resolution continuous flood rating results are obtained for fine-tune flood management.
... During the end of 2014 and early 2015, a total of 541,896 flood victims involving 136,447 families were affected by the disaster [3]. This was also recorded to be the most devastating flood in decades [4]. Kelantan was one of the most flood-prone states in Malaysia which have disrupted the lives of 339,703 flood victims involving 87,024 families [3]. ...
The investigation sought to explore the spiritual-religious coping strategies applied by post-flood victims. A total of 14 respondents in Kelantan and Sarawak have been recruited in this investigation. The study has utilized the mixed-method design, specifically the exploratory sequential design. The analysis conducted has yielded that the spiritual-religious coping strategies (i.e. acceptance towards God’s provision, faith, and religious practices) are important aspects in coping with post-flood situations. The application of the spiritual-religious coping strategies will enable those who are at risk of facing flood disaster to be better prepared in terms of managing and minimizing the psychological impacts of the disaster.
The National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia reported that by 2050, the east coast of the country will suffer increasing substantial rainfall, sea-level rise, and recurrent flooding. The effects of coastal threats, vulnerability, and adaptation measures are increasingly becoming more critical for coastal communities than before. Hence, this study aims to measure the levels of community awareness and adaptation strategies to coastal hazards and to analyze the differences of awareness on the basis of socioeconomic factors. The research is based on a household survey (n = 498), which is randomly conducted in 11 locations on the Pahang coast. Findings indicate that more than half of household heads have high levels of awareness regarding coastal hazard impacts, such as human casualties; losses of mangroves, coastal forests, aquatic, wildlife, and livestock resources; and damage to residential properties, coastal infrastructures, agriculture, and economic activities. An independent sample T-test and one-way ANOVA demonstrate household heads who are elderly (x̅ = 2.57, p < 0.01); experienced (x̅ = 2.48, p < 0.01); educated (x̅ = 2.65, p < 0.01); healthy (x̅ = 2.42, p < 0.01); and with an improved socioeconomic status (x̅ = 2.42, p < 0.05) having high levels of awareness. This study suggests that education and awareness-raising, including capacity building, play essential roles in the further understanding and decision making of coastal hazards and adaptation strategies. Moreover, the principal component analysis model identifies that structural and non-structural measures and community-based adaptation measures are essential to protect the coast. The study can contribute to the knowledge of community awareness and adaptation to coastal hazard literature that can be implemented on a global scale.
The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a representation of the topography of the Earth’s surface and terrain. There are many ways in which the digital elevation model can be obtained, such as the Field Survey and the use of Global Positioning System data, topographic maps and other methods. In this research, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) has been built dependent on three methods (positioning system—ground survey—topographic maps) in addition to the use of GIS technology to produce high-resolution 3D maps (2 mm) was chosen for application to the city of Nasiriyah, the center of Dhi Qar governorate in the southern Iraq to show the Hydrological hazards on the studied area and the methods of protecting it. It was found that there are many hydrological hazards to the city especially in the winter season such as the erosion of the soil by rain which reached 12.977 tons/ha and the water immersion whose ratio reached to 0.34 cm in some areas. In addition, the study showed that the area is exposed to the danger of flooding in percentages ranging from 0 to 90%, covering 50–60% of the risk of most parts of the study area. Finally, it was concluded that the rise of groundwater levels (0.73 cm) affects on buildings, foundations, soil and infrastructure.
Flood is an annual disaster in Malaysia, especially in the east coast region. Recently, other regions in Malaysia have experienced devastating flood as well. To monitor the flood extent, aerial monitoring approach is considered as one of the best measures. Compared to space borne remote sensing, aerial platforms are more reliable in obtaining real time data with higher spatial resolution. Among the obstacles in using space borne remote sensing approach are cloud coverage and revisit limitations, making it less desirable option for flood monitoring. In this chapter, a review of four types of aerial platforms that perform remote sensing task is presented, namely; rotary wings, fixed wings, blimps and helikites. The main criteria discussed in the review are payload capacity, endurance (flight duration), altitudes, tolerable wind speed, vertical take-off and landing ability, and the ability to perform under adverse weather, such as heavy precipitation and winds. From the findings, there are lack of studies that mentioned about the capability of aerial platform in rough weather conditions. Out of all four types of aerial platforms discussed, helikite is seen to be the most suitable device to fly in adverse weather. Nevertheless, the only drawback in using helikite is that it has mobility issue since it is tethered to the ground. Helikite application is suitable for small area coverage. As for future recommendations, the study to evaluate the helikite’s reliability in performing such task has a great opportunity to be pursued further.
Flood is the most devastating natural disaster experienced in Malaysia is flood. Throughout Malaysia, including Sabah and Sarawak, there is total of 189 river basins (89 of the river basins are in peninsula Malaysia, 78 in Sabah and 22 in Sarawak), with the main channels flowing directly to the South China Sea and 85 of them are prone to become recurrent flooding. The estimated area vulnerable to flood disaster is approximately 29,800 km2 or 9% of the total Malaysia area, and is affecting almost 4.82 million people which is around 22% of the total population of the country. This study is aimed at finding the causes, effects and mitigation of floods. A comparative study was carried out to determine the people perception on floods. It is clear that, most of the people believe that, improper drainage condition is the main cause of floods. About 33% of the population agrees that, water damage to building is the main effect of flooding and other part suggested that evacuating people from flood prone to safe zones is the best way of reducing flood victims. It is finally agrees that, government and local community should take necessary measures to ensure proper drainage is build and clear during rainfall season. It is suggested that people should avoid developing new buildings on a water ways to reduce frequent occurrence of flooding, or people and government most ensure that, flood prone areas are not occupy with buildings.
Satellite precipitation products (SPPs) potentially constitute an alternative to sparse rain gauge networks for assessing the spatial distribution of precipitation. However, applications of these products are still limited due to the lack of robust quality assessment. This study compares daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall amount at 342 rain gauges over Malaysia to estimations using five SPPs (3B42RT, 3B42V7, GPCP-1DD, PERSIANN-CDR, and CMORPH) and a ground-based precipitation product (APHRODITE). The performance of the precipitation products was evaluated from 2003 to 2007 using continuous (RMSE, R2, ME, MAE, and RB) and categorical (ACC, POD, FAR, CSI, and HSS) statistical approaches. Overall, 3B42V7 and APHRODITE performed the best, while the worst performance was shown by GPCP-1DD. 3B42RT, 3B42V7, and PERSIANN-CDR slightly overestimated observed precipitation by 2%, 4.7%, and 2.1%, respectively. By contrast, APHRODITE and CMORPH significantly underestimated precipitations by 19.7% and 13.2%, respectively, whereas GPCP-1DD only slightly underestimated by 2.8%. All six precipitation products performed better in the northeast monsoon than in the southwest monsoon. The better performances occurred in eastern and southern Peninsular Malaysia and in the north of East Malaysia, which receives higher rainfall during the northeast monsoon, whereas poor performances occurred in the western and dryer Peninsular Malaysia. All precipitation products underestimated the no/tiny (<1 mm/day) and extreme (≥20 mm/day) rainfall events, while they overestimated low (1–20 mm/day) rainfall events. 3B42RT and 3B42V7 showed the best ability to detect precipitation amounts with the highest HSS value (0.36). Precipitations during flood events such as those which occurred in late 2006 and early 2007 were estimated the best by 3B42RT and 3B42V7, as shown by an R2 value ranging from 0.49 to 0.88 and 0.52 to 0.86, respectively. These results on SPPs’ uncertainties and their potential controls might allow sensor and algorithm developers to deliver better products for improved rainfall estimation and thus improved water management.
A rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature, precipitation, and windstorms influence economic outcomes. These studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output, industrial output, labor productivity, energy demand, health, conflict, and economic growth, among other outcomes. By harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit, these studies help credibly identify (i) the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy, (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations, and (iii) nonlinear effects of weather variables. This paper reviews the new literature with two purposes. First, we summarize recent work, providing a guide to its methodologies, datasets, and findings. Second, we consider applications of the new literature, including insights for the “damage function” within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change.
Natural hazards have a potentially large impact on economic growth, but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of this paper is to demonstrate a model-the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation (NDVE) model-that can be used to evaluate the impact of natural hazards on gross national product growth. The model is based on five basic indicators-natural hazards growth rates (αi ), the national natural hazards vulnerability rate (ΩT ), the natural disaster devastation magnitude rate (Π), the economic desgrowth rate (i.e. shrinkage of the economy) (δ), and the NHV surface. In addition, we apply the NDVE model to the north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 to evaluate its impact on the Japanese economy.
Despite 30 years of study, international development policy appears to be little closer to generating protection to vulnerable people from the preventable losses of disaster. Part of the reason for a lack of progress has been the sidelining of disaster in development studies. Disaster
events have been seen as exceptional and allowed to fall outside the mainstream of development theory. In this paper we set out and use a framework that allows a more holistic accounting for the macro-economic impacts of disaster, and is a step towards a deeper integration of disasters and development.
Benefit-cost analysis can play an important role in legislative and regulatory policy debates on protecting and improving
health, safety, and the natural environment. Although formal benefit-cost analysis should not be viewed as either necessary
or sufficient for designing sensible public policy, it can provide an exceptionally useful framework for consistently organizing
disparate information, and in this way, it can greatly improve the process and, hence, the outcome of policy analysis. If
properly done, benefit-cost analysis can be of great help to agencies participating in the development of environmental, health,
and safety regulations, and it can likewise be useful in evaluating agency decision-making and in shaping statutes.
The natural disasters have a potentially large impact on economic growth but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of our paper is to set forth a model – the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation (NDVE) model – to evaluate the impact of natural disasters on GDP growth. The model is based on three basic indicators – (i) the natural disasters vulnerability propensity rate (Ω); (ii) the natural disaster devastation magnitude rate (Π); and (iii) economic desgrowth rate (δ). In addition, this model is based on chaos theory and risk complexity analysis framework. We apply the NDVE-Model to the Northeast Japan earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 to evaluate its impact on the Japanese economy.
This paper introduces a definition, a way of classifying and a method of evaluating policy modeling. An analytical tool called "Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC-Index)" has been developed for the purposes of evaluating policy modeling. The PMC-Index enables policy-makers and researchers to identify the level of consistency as well as the strengths and weaknesses within any policy modeling. The implementation of the PMC-Index involves the following four basic steps: (i) the use of multi-input-output table; (ii) classification of variables and identification of parameters; (iii) measurement of the PMC-Index; (iv) construction of the PMC-Surface. Through the PMC-Index, this paper promotes multidisciplinary approach to policy modeling. It suggests that various possible effects of any economic policy can be shown using a multi-dimensional graphical means.
An important goal of vulnerability assessment is to create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators. Constructing
a vulnerability index raises several problems in the aggregation of these indicators, including the decision of assigning
weights to them. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a method of aggregating vulnerability indicators that results
in a composite index of vulnerability, but that avoids the problems associated with assigning weights. The investigators apply
a technique based on Pareto ranking to a complex, developed socioeconomic landscape exposed to storm surges associated with
hurricanes. Indicators of social vulnerability to this hazard are developed and a principal components analysis is performed
on proxies for these indicators. Overall social vulnerability is calculated by applying Pareto ranking to these principal
components. The paper concludes that it is possible to construct an effective index of vulnerability without weighting the
individual vulnerability indicators.
Both academic and applied researchers studying financial markets and other economic series have become interested in the topic of chaotic dynamics. The possibility of chaos in financial markets opens important questions for both economic theorists as well as financial market participants. This paper will clarify the empirical evidence for chaos in financial markets and macroeconomic series. It will also compare these two concepts from a financial market perspective contrasting the objectives of the practitioner with those of economic researchers. Finally, the paper will speculate on the impact of chaos and nonlinear modeling on future economic research.
We investigate the macroeconomic response to natural disasters by using an endogenous business cycle (EnBC) model in which cyclical behavior arises from the investment-profit instability. Our model exhibits a larger response to natural disasters during expansions than during recessions. This apparently paradoxical result can be traced to the disasters amplifying pre-existing disequilibria during expansions, while the existence of unused resources during recessions damps the exogenous shocks. It thus appears that high-growth periods are also highly vulnerable to supply-side shocks. In our EnBC model, the average production loss due to a set of disasters distributed at random in time is highly sensitive to the dynamical characteristics of the impacted economy. Larger economic flexibility allows for a more efficient and rapid response to supply-side shocks and reduces production losses. On the other hand, too high a flexibility can lead to vulnerability phases that cause average production losses to soar. These results raise questions about the assessment of climate change damages or natural disaster losses that are based purely on long-term growth models.
The sources of economic growth and development have been puzzling economists from the modern dawn of the profession. While the Solow-Swan neo-classical model dominated research on growth in the 1960s and 1970s, the 1980s saw the emergence of growth theories that disputed, largely on theoretical grounds, the Solow-Swan assumptions and conclusions. In this paper, we do not examine the determinants of the level of per capita income as an indication that a certain theory has better explanatory power. Rather, we focus on the dynamics of growth following external exogenous shocks (natural disasters). We argue that the data analysis we present suggests that the neoclassical model does not accord very well with the growth experience of developing countries.
Recent natural and manmade disasters have had significant regional economic impacts. These effects have been muted, however, by the "resilience" of individual businesses and of regional markets, which refers to the inherent ability and adaptive responses that enable firms and regions to avoid potential losses. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis is a promising approach to disaster impact analysis because it is able to model the behavioral response to input shortages and changing market conditions. However, without further refinement, CGE models, as well as nearly all other economic models, reflect only "business-as-usual" conditions, when they are based on historical data. This paper advances the CGE analysis of major supply disruptions of critical inputs by: specifying operational definitions of individual business and regional macroeconomic resilience, linking production function parameters to various types of producer adaptations in emergencies, developing algorithms for recalibrating production functions to empirical or simulation data, and decomposing partial and general equilibrium responses. We illustrate some of these contributions in a case study of the sectoral and regional economic impacts of a disruption to the Portland Metropolitan Water System in the aftermath of a major earthquake. Copyright Blackwell Publishers, 2005
The growing impact of regulations on the economy has led both Congress and the Administration to search for new ways of reforming the regulatory process. Many of these initiatives call for greater reliance on the use of economic analysis in the development and evaluation of regulations. One specific approach being advocated is benefit-cost analysis, an economic tool for comparing the desirable and undesirable impacts of proposed policies.
From an economic perspective, drought may be viewed as an exogenous, but internal, supply-side shock which results directly in sharp reductions in agricultural production and reduced export earnings. Meteorological drought may also result in hydrological conditions that have an adverse impact on non-agricultural production, including hydroelectric power generation, human water supply and certain industrial processes. In addition, droughts have potential knock-on effects on non-productive aspects of an economy such as the budget deficit, the rate of inflation, interest rates, availability of credit, levels of savings, and external debt stocks. These direct and indirect impacts and multiplier effects together mean that the economy-wide consequences of a drought shock may be considerable. However, these impacts may be highly differentiated in terms of both their scale and character, partly depending on the economic structure of a country and the nature of intersectoral linkages and resource endowments, as well as on other factors such as the prevailing economic conditions and policy environment.
This paper reviews the empirical literature on the economic impacts of natural disasters to inform both the modeling of potential future climate damages and climate adaptation policy related to extreme events. It covers papers that estimate the short- and/or long-run economic impacts of weather-related extreme events as well as studies identifying the determinants of the magnitude of those damages (including fatalities). The paper also reviews the small number of empirical papers on the potential extent of adaptation in response to changing extreme events.
This book brings together different work in the new field of physics called the chaos theory, an extension of classical mechanics, in which simple and complex causes are seen to interact. Mathematics may only be able to solve simple linear equations which experiment has pushed nature into obeying in a limited way, but now that computers can map the whole plane of solutions of non-linear equations a new vision of nature is revealed. The implications are staggeringly universal in all areas of scientific work and philosophical thought.
Hurricane Katrina enlivened a national debate on managing flood hazards and raised concerns about flood vulnerability among communities across the nation. In the United States, local governments are responsible for land use and zoning decisions that direct floodplain and coastal development; however, state and federal governments influences community and individual decisions on managing flood risk. The federal government constructs some of the nation's flood control infrastructure, offers flood insurance, and provides disaster aid. The 110th Congress, like many earlier Congresses, is faced with numerous flood control issues, including interest in changing federal policies. Current federal programs and flood control projects generally target reducing property damage and vulnerability to a 100-year flood. Discussions include whether current flood protection is sufficient, whether loss of life and economic and social disruption should be more prominent considerations in federal policy, and what are the advantages and disadvantages of a more risk-based approach to federal policy, spending, and infrastructure design. This report discusses federal flood-related infrastructure investments, such as levees, floodwalls, and dams. The report also analyzes flood risk as a composite of flood threat, consequence, and vulnerability. The report illustrates that federal policy focuses attention on only some aspects of flood risk and summarizes the options being discussed for addressing other aspects of flood risk in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
The paper discusses the theory and methodology supporting the development of the inoperability input-output model (IIM). The IIM is based on Leontief's input-output model, which characterizes interdependencies among sectors in the economy and analyzes initial disruptions to a set of sectors and the resulting ripple effects. An advantage of building on Leontief's model is that it is supported by publications of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Independent computer runs of the IIM can represent the entire nation or sectors within particular U. S. regions. A dynamic extension of the IIM analyzes different temporal frames of recovery and characterizes the required sector adjustments for achieving new production levels. The IIM can systemically prioritize and manage the sectors deemed to be economically critical and also identify those sectors whose continued operability is critical during recovery. A companion paper demonstrates applying the IIM to attacks on electric power and telecommunications.
TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) is a “bottom-up” CGE model of Australia which treats each region as a separate economy. TERM was created specifically to deal with highly disaggregated regional data while providing a quick solution to simulations. This makes it a useful tool for examining the regional impacts of shocks that may be region-specific. We include some details of how we prepared the TERM database, using a national input–output table, together with regional data showing output (for agriculture) and employment (in other sectors) for each of 144 sectors and 57 regions (the Australian statistical divisions). Using a 38-sector, 45-region aggregation of the model, we simulate the short-run effects of the Australian drought of 2002–2003, which was the most widespread for 20 years. The effects on some statistical divisions are extreme, with income losses of up to 20%. Despite the relatively small share of agriculture in Australian GDP, the drought reduces GDP by 1.6%, and contributes to a decline in unemployment and to a worsening of the balance of trade.
Communities must identify exposure to hazard impacts to proactively address emergency response, disaster recovery, and hazard mitigation, and incorporate sustainable development practices into comprehensive planning. Hazard mitigation, an important part of sustainable development, eliminates or minimizes disaster-related damages and empowers communities to respond to and recover more quickly from disasters. The Community Vulnerability Assessment Tool (CVAT) is a risk and vulnerability assessment methodology designed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Coastal Services Center to assist emergency managers and planners in their efforts to reduce hazard vulnerabilities through hazard mitigation, comprehensive land-use, and development planning. CVAT analysis results provide a baseline to prioritize mitigation measures and to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures over time. This methodology is flexible, as results may be achieved using a geographic information system or static maps with overlays and handwritten data. This paper outlines how to engage stakeholders and explains the CVAT process. Several case studies also highlight some of the challenges/problems and best practices/opportunities associated with applying the CVAT methodology.
Developing an effective evacuation strategy for hurricane zones presents challenges to emergency planners because of spatial differences in geophysical risk and social vulnerability. This study examines spatial variability in evacuation assistance needs as related to the hurricane hazard. Two quantitative indicators are developed: a geophysical risk index, based on National Hurricane Center and National Flood Insurance Program data, and a social vulnerability index, based on census information. These indices are combined to determine spatial patterns of evacuation assistance needs in Hillsborough County, Florida. Four evacuation dimensions are analyzed: population traits and building structures, differential access to resources, special evacuation needs, and a combination of variables. Results indicate that geophysical risk and social vulnerability can produce different spatial patterns that complicate emergency management. Different measures of social vulnerability also confound evacuation strategies and can result in ineffective practices. It is argued that careful consideration be given to the characteristics of local populations.
There is an ongoing debate on whether disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and are truly a potential impediment to economic development. This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause significant GDP impacts. The analysis first studies the counterfactual versus the observed gross domestic product. Second, the analysis assesses disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets, and, importantly, vulnerability. In a medium-term analysis (up to 5 years after the disaster event), comparing counterfactual with observed gross domestic product, the authors find that natural disasters on average can lead to negative consequences. Although the negative effects may be small, they can become more pronounced depending mainly on the size of the shock. Furthermore, the authors test a large number of vulnerability predictors and find that greater aid and inflows of remittances reduce adverse macroeconomic consequences, and that direct losses appear most critical.
The process of global climate change has been associated with an increase in the frequency of climatic disasters. Yet, there is still little systematic evidence on the macroeconomic costs of these episodes. This paper uses panel time-series techniques to estimate the short and long-run impact of climatic and other disasters on a country's GDP. The results indicate that a climate related disaster reduces real GDP per capita by at least 0.6 percent. Therefore, the increased incidence of these disasters during recent decades entails important macroeconomic costs. Among climatic disasters, droughts have the largest average impact, with cumulative losses of 1 percent of GDP per capita. Across groups of countries, small states are more vulnerable than other countries to windstorms, but exhibit a similar response to other types of disasters; and low-income countries responds more strongly to climatic disasters, mainly because of their higher response to droughts. However, a country's level of external debt has no relation to the output impact of any type of disaster. The evidence also indicates that, historically, aid flows have done little to attenuate the output consequences of climatic disasters.
Large natural disasters (LNDs) are ubiquitous phenomena with potentially large impacts on the infrastructure and population of countries and on their economic activity in general. Using a panel of 113 countries and 36 years of data, I examine the relationship between different measures of natural disaster impact and long-run economic growth. The sample is partitioned in two separate ways: According to the amount and type of disasters that countries have experienced and to the size of those disasters. For each partition, I present two sets of econometric estimations. The first regressions identify short-run and longer-lasting effects of LNDs. However, these first estimations do not distinguish between temporary but persistent effects and truly permanent ones. I thus estimate a structural model that allows me to identify permanent changes. The results of the first regressions show that for some of the groups of countries the disaster impact persists beyond the 2-5 years in which reconstruction and adaptation are expected to have an effect on the economy. However, the estimates using the structural model show that only for a very small number of countries which share a history of highly devastating natural disasters the negative effects are truly permanent.
Summary Drought shocks can have potentially large, but highly differentiated economy-wide impacts, depending on the structure and resource endowments of an economy. Counter-intuitively, drought shocks have the greatest economy-wide impact in countries at intermediate rather than early stages of development. This has important policy implications for the appropriateness of various drought relief and mitigation measures in different economies.
ResuméL'impact de la sécheresse sur les économies sous-sahariennes de l'Afrique
Potentiellement, l'impact de peut répercuter dans de domaines nombreux la sécheresse mais hautement différentiés de l'économie, en fonction des structures et des ressources dont l'économie en question est dotée. Contrairement à ce que l'on pourrait croire, l'impact de la sécheresse est le plus répandu et le plus généralisé dans les pays en stade intermédiaire de leur développement, et non dans les stades initiaux. Les implications de ce phénomène sont importantes: surtout en termes des politiques qu'il serait approprié, au sein des différentes économies, de mettre en vigueur dans les diverses actions pour le soulagement de la sécheresse et pour l'atténuation de ses effets.
ResumenEl impacto de la sequía en las economías del Africa sub-Sahariana
La sequía puede tener un impacto potencialmente grande aunque altamente diferenciado en la economía, dependiendo de la estructura y recursos de ésta. Los choques o sequías repentinas tienen su impacto más grande en los países en una fase intermedia de desarrollo, y no en los países en las primeras etapas del mismo. Esto trae implicaciones políticas importantes al decidir en la eficacia de las distintas medidas de socorro y mitigación en diferentes situaciones económicas.
Extreme weather events such as droughts and floods have potentially damaging implications for developing countries. Previous studies have estimated economic losses during hypothetical or single historical events, and have relied on historical production data rather than explicitly modeling climate. However, effective mitigation strategies require knowledge of the full distribution of weather events and their isolated effects on economic outcomes. We combine stochastic hydrometeorological crop-loss models with a regionalized computable general equilibrium model to estimate losses for the full distribution of possible weather events in Malawi. Results indicate that, based on repeated sampling from historical events, at least 1.7 per cent of Malawi's gross domestic product (GDP) is lost each year due to the combined effects of droughts and floods. Smaller-scale farmers in the southern region of the country are worst affected. However, poverty among urban and nonfarm households also increases due to national food shortages and higher domestic prices.
Recent emergency flood situations at European rivers have revealed the demand for better and in-time information for citizens
in flood prone areas about flood development, as well as better coordination of resources and actions during pre-flood phases
and its critical stage. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has a large potential to improve the situation. Decisions
may be supported by information about resources available at the region and national level, by information about means and
access to critical locations at the prevention as well as the evacuation phases, and by including citizens as well as managers
into one common information and communication process. The paper outlines the potential of ICT for these aspects.
Natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro-economy in the short-run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production. Yet, interestingly, developing countries, and smaller economies, face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies. A close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns. Countries with a higher literacy rate, better institutions, higher per capita income, higher degree of openness to trade, and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro-economy. These all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction. Financial conditions also seem to be of importance; countries with more foreign exchange reserves, and higher levels of domestic credit, but with less-open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters, with less adverse spillover into domestic production.
Climate change is increasing the intensity of extreme weather events. Mexico is particularly prone to suffer at least two different types of these events: droughts and hurricanes. This paper focuses on the effects of an extended drought on the Mexican economy. Through a computable general equilibrium model, we simulate the impact of a drought that affects primarily agriculture, livestock, forestry, and hydropower generation. We look at the effects on the overall economy. We then simulate the effects of several adaptation strategies in (chiefly) the agricultural, forestry, and power sectors, and we arrive at some tentative yet significant conclusions. We find that the effects of such an event vary substantially by sector with moderate to severe overall impacts. Furthermore, we find that adaptation policies can only effect modest changes to the economic losses to be suffered.
Sumario: I. Public losses under the microscope -- II. How to control losses -- III. Four issues sharing environmental risks -- IV. Policy futures.
Natural disasters cause considerable economic damage. While developed countries usually are able to cope with the impacts of natural hazards, developing countries are faced with severe consequences for their resources. In order to prevent long-term macroeconomic repercussions, governments need a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy. Stefan Hochrainer develops a catastrophe risk management model. It illustrates which trade-offs and choices a country must make in managing economic risks due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources are allocated to pre-disaster risk management strategies to reduce the probability of financing gaps. The framework and model approach allows cross country comparisons as well as the assessment of financial vulnerability, macroeconomic risk, and risk management strategies. Three case studies demonstrate its flexibility and coherent approach. © Deutscher Universitats-Verlag | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006.
This paper explains involuntary unemployment in terms of the response of firms to workers' group behavior. Workers' effort
depends upon the norms determining a fair day's work. In order to affect those norms, firms may pay more than the market-clearing
wage. Industries that pay consistently more than the market-clearing wage are primary, and those that pay only the market-clearing
wage are secondary. Thus, this paper also gives a theory for division of labor markets between primary and secondary.
This paper aims to present an illustrative case study on the economic impacts of transport infrastructure disruptions caused by the hypothetical Tokai-Tonankai earthquakes in Japan. We formulate a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model, which integrates a transportation model that can estimate two types of interregional flows of freight movement and passenger trips. The case study shows the impacts of transportation disruptions and the importance of network redundancy with transport-related economic losses corresponding to several scenarios from disasters and network levels of development.
‘Input–Output economics is that rara avis in economics, a genuinely new and origznal idea. It was not without precursors and Leontief has always been at least adequately generous in acknowleding them…. The fundamental discovery that distinguished Leon- tiefs work from that of all his predecessors is that it was practical to calculate the input–output coefficients from recorded data, to perform the necessary algebraic manipu- lations, and to use the results to answer a wide variety of practical economic questions’ (Dorfman, 1973; pp. 430–31).
This paper integrates information from both economics and the physical sciences to survey the effects of natural disasters in the region. A first section surveys the human and economic impact of natural disasters in the region at both the household and aggregate levels, noting both the geographical distribution of disaster risk and its long-term implications for development. A second section reviews types of disasters prevalent in the region, and future disaster risks, as well as the socio-economic sources of vulnerability to disasters resulting from development and migration patterns. A third section discusses risk management strategies at the household and community level, with public policy options and proposals for emergency response and finding an appropriate mix of local, national and market-based solutions.
Water problems are typically studied at the level of the river catchment. About 70% of all water is used for agriculture, and agricultural products are traded internationally. A full understanding of water use is impossible without understanding the international market for food and related products, such as textiles. The water embedded in commodities is called virtual water. Based on a general equilibrium model, we offer a method for investigating the role of water resources and water scarcity in the context of international trade. We run five alternative scenarios, analyzing the effects of water scarcity due to reduced availability of groundwater. This can be a consequence of physical constraints, and of policies curbing water demand. Four scenarios are based on a "market solution", where water owners can capitalize their water rent or taxes are recycled. In the fifth "non-market" scenario, this is not the case; supply restrictions imply productivity losses. Restrictions in water supply would shift trade patterns of agriculture and virtual water. These shifts are larger if the restriction is larger, and if the use of water in production is more rigid. Welfare losses are substantially larger in the non-market situation. Water-constrained agricultural producers lose, but unconstrained agricultural produces gain; industry gains as well. As a result, there are regional winners and losers from water supply constraints. Because of the current distortions of agricultural markets, water supply constraints could improve allocative efficiency; this welfare gain may more than offset the welfare losses due to the resource constraint.
In this article, we investigate the long-run relationships among disasters, capital accumulation, total factor productivity, and economic growth. The cross-country empirical analysis demonstrates that higher frequencies of climatic disasters are correlated with higher rates of human capital accumulation, increases in total factor productivity, and economic growth. Though disaster risk reduces the expected rate of return to physical capital, risk also serves to increase the relative return to human capital. Thus, physical capital investment may fall, but there is also a substitution toward human capital investment. Disasters also provide the impetus to update the capital stock and adopt new technologies, leading to improvements in total factor productivity. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.
This paper complements the findings of Atal, Ñopo and Winder (2009) on gender and ethnic wage gaps for 18 Latin American countries circa 2005 by analyzing gender wage gaps for the same countries between circa 1992 and circa 2007. During this span the overall gender earnings gaps dropped about 7 percentage points, while the unexplained component dropped between 3 and 4 percentage points, depending on the control variables used. The gap declined most notably among workers at the bottom of the earnings distribution, with children at home, the self-employed, part-time workers and those in rural areas—the segments of the labor market that were previously reported as having the highest unexplained gender disparities. Most of the reduction in unexplained gaps occurred within segments rather than due to the composition of labor markets. The paper additionally finds a limited role for job tenure in explaining gender wage gaps.
Impacts of Disasters and Disasters Risk Management in Malaysia: The Case of Floods, in Economic and Welfare Impacts of Disasters in East Asia and Policy
- N W Chan
Chan, N.W., Impacts of Disasters and Disasters Risk Management in Malaysia: The Case of Floods,
in Economic and Welfare Impacts of Disasters in East Asia and Policy Response, Y. Sawada and S.
Oum, Editors. 2012, ERIA Research Project Report 2011, No.8. ERIA: Jakarta, Indonesia. p. 503-551.