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History of Forward Contracts (Historical Evidence for Forward Contracts)
Abstract
A forward contract is an agreement between two parties who specify today the terms (price, underlying asset, quantity, etc.) of an exchange that is to take place at a known future date. Forward contracts can be traced to Greek and Roman times, and may have occurred earlier still; they have been widely traded in Europe (and subsequently elsewhere) since the Middle Ages.
... Financial derivatives have had a special interest in asset pricing since their ancient origins in the Ancient Greek and Japanese cultures [4][5][6], or their more recent origins during the development of the Dutch, French, or English agricultural exchanges from the 17th to 19th centuries. ...
Abstract: In the present paper, we test the benefit of using Markov-Switching models and volatility futures diversification in a Euro-based stock portfolio. With weekly data of the Eurostoxx 50 (ESTOXX50) stock index, we forecasted the smoothed regime-specific probabilities at T + 1 and used them as the weighting method of a diversified portfolio in ESTOXX50 and ESTOSS50 volatility index (VSTOXX) futures. With the estimated smoothed probabilities from 9 July 2009 to 29 September 2020, we simulated the performance of three theoretical investors who paid different trading costs and invested in ESTOXX50 during calm periods (low volatility regime) or VSTOXX futures and the three-month German treasury bills in distressed or highly distressed periods (high and extreme volatility regimes). Our results suggest that diversification benefits hold in the short-term, but if a given investor manages a two-asset portfolio with ESTOXX50 and our simulated portfolios, the stock portfolio’s performance is enhanced significantly, in the long term, with the presence of trading costs. These results are of use to practitioners for algorithmic and active trading applications in ESTOXX50 ETFs and VSTOXX futures.
Keywords: Markov-Switching GARCH; volatility futures; VSTOXX; volatility hedging; active portfolio management; algorithmic trading; VSTOXX futures trading; active stock trading
The first thoroughly organized futures exchange that fulfilled all the technical criteria specified by modern research in finance can be traced back to 18th century Japan. The Dōjima rice market in Ōsaka developed as a trading center for rice in the 17th century, and the futures market materialized according to the traders' needs; differences to modern futures exchanges can be observed in early mark-to-market procedures and margin requirements. If the role of rice in the pre-modern Japanese economy is acknowledged to be monetary, rice bill futures can also be regarded as financial futures.
The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event.
In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
Amsterdam as the cradle of modern futures and options trading In The origins of value: The financial innovations that created modern capital markets
- O Gelderblom
- J Jonker