“Lifestyle Leapfrogging” in Emerging Economies: Enabling Systemic Shifts to Sustainable Consumption

Abstract

This paper combines the concept of leapfrogging with systems-thinking approaches to outline the potentials for and barriers to enabling systemic shifts to strong sustainable consumption in the emerging economies of China and India. New urban consumers in China and India have the potential to “lifestyle leapfrog” the high impact lifestyle models of the industrialized countries while simultaneously improving their quality of life. This paper argues that by implementing systemic approaches in the consumption domains of mobility and housing, the historical trajectory of high environmental footprints of mobility and housing can be avoided. The analysis based on systems-thinking principles identifies existing barriers and possible solutions. The importance of policies for strong sustainable consumption is highlighted to induce positive feedbacks in the areas of markets and society facilitating both efficient technology uptake and behavioural changes.

Full text

1 23
Journal of Consumer Policy
Consumer Issues in Law, Economics and
Behavioural Sciences
ISSN 0168-7034
J Consum Policy
DOI 10.1007/s10603-016-9339-3
“Lifestyle Leapfrogging” in Emerging
Economies: Enabling Systemic Shifts to
Sustainable Consumption
Patrick Schroeder & Manisha
Anantharaman

1 23
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ORIGINAL PAPER
BLifestyle Leapfrogging^in Emerging Economies:
Enabling Systemic Shifts to Sustainable Consumption
Patrick Schroeder
1,2
&Manisha Anantharaman
3
Received: 1 October 2015 /Accepted: 13 December 2016
#Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016
Abstract This paper combines the concept of leapfrogging with systems-thinking approaches
to outline the potentials for and barriers to enabling systemic shifts to strong sustainable
consumption in the emerging economies of China and India. New urban consumers in China
and India have the potential to Blifestyle leapfrog^the high impact lifestyle models of the
industrialized countries while simultaneously improving their quality of life. This paper argues
that by implementing systemic approaches in the consumption domains of mobility and
housing, the historical trajectory of high environmental footprints of mobility and housing
can be avoided. The analysis based on systems-thinking principles identifies existing barriers
and possible solutions. The importance of policies for strong sustainable consumption is
highlighted to induce positive feedbacks in the areas of markets and society facilitating both
efficient technology uptake and behavioural changes.
Keywords Sustainable consumption .Leapfrogging .Systems thinking .India .China
It is now well–established that the consumption and production patterns of the industrialized
world are environmentally unsustainable (Vitousek et al. 1997; Wackernagel et al. 2002;
Wiedmann et al. 2006). As studies linking economic activity with climate change and
J Consum Policy
DOI 10.1007/s10603-016-9339-3
*Patrick Schroeder
p.schroeder@ids.ac.uk
Manisha Anantharaman
Ma20@stmarys-ca.edu
1
Institute of Development Studies (IDS), University of Sussex, Library Road, University of Sussex,
Brighton BN1 9RE, UK
2
Collaborating Center on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP), Hagenauer Strasse 30,
42107 Wuppertal, Germany
3
Justice Community and Leadership Program, Saint Mary’s College of California, 1928 St. Mary’s
Road, Moraga, CA 94575, USA
Author's personal copy

biodiversity loss have shown, the consumption patterns of industrialized societies have
significant environmental costs that threaten to jeopardize the ecological integrity of our
planet, calling for new policy approaches to consumption challenges (UNEP 2012). This
recognition has brought renewed attention to questions of consumption patterns and consum-
erism in the Western world, prompting numerous studies and initiatives that look to promote
green consumption, voluntary simplicity, and sustainable local economies. At the same time,
the boundaries of consumption systems between the industrialized countries and emerging
economies are becoming increasingly blurred, especially as the lifestyles of urban consumers
in India and China begin to look more like those of their Western counterparts (Lange and
Meier 2009; Myers and Kent 2003).
While there is a small but significant movement calling for sustainable consumption in the
USA, Europe, and other developed countries, the question of sustainable consumption has not
yet received systematic attention in emerging economies. Instead, the development agendas of
most emerging economies, in Asia in particular, emphasize the development of a robust
domestic consumer market as a means of maintaining economic growth and stability. These
visions of a growing consumer economy in India and China directly contradict the environ-
mental reality: emerging economies cannot develop or consume in the same manner or to the
same degree as the global north due to environmental change and resource constraints.
An acknowledgement of these environmental limits necessitates a serious reexamina-
tion of consumption trajectories in emerging economies by scholars and policymakers
who can articulate alternate visions of lifestyles and identify pathways to change. It is in
response to this need that we introduce the concept of Blifestyle leapfrogging.^Lifestyle
leapfrogging is a systems-based concept that explores and outlines how sustainable
lifestyles of consumers in emerging economies could be realized from the outset,
circumventing the unsustainable lifestyles of Western consumers. We draw on systems-
thinking methods, specifically causal loop diagrams, to understand systemic drivers and
barriers to lifestyle leapfrogging in the emerging economies of China and India. We
argue that such leapfrogging is both necessary and possible and draw on a systems-based
perspective of consumption practices to demonstrate how leapfrogging could be made
possible through specific interventions in policy, markets, and civil society. We use two
case studies to develop the concept: residential housing in China and mobility in India,
chosen here because of the significant role these countries play in a global transition to
sustainable systems of production and consumption.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In the next section, we briefly review the
history of the concept of leapfrogging in its different avatars. We then extend it to the domain
of consumption to introduce the concept of lifestyle leapfrogging and discuss it in relation to
two different types of sustainable consumption: weak versus strong sustainable consumption,
where the former focuses on incremental shifts in consumption patterns that largely maintain
the status quo while the latter emphasizes absolute reductions in consumption levels through
resistance, downshifting, and voluntary simplicity. In the BLifestyle Leapfrogging to Strong
Sustainable Consumption^section, we turn to empirical evidence to show how some efforts at
lifestyle leapfrogging for weak sustainable consumption are already underway in India and
China. The BA Systems-Based Approach for Engendering Lifestyle Leapfrogging^section
shifts focus to strong sustainable consumption, and we utilize causal loop diagrams, a key tool
in systems thinking for sustainable consumption, to show how specific combinations of policy,
market, and civil society initiative might bring about lifestyle leapfrogging in China and India
in the domains of housing and mobility, respectively. The BConclusion^section concludes by
Schroeder P., Anantharaman M.
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presenting a critical assessment of the lifestyle leapfrogging concept and suggesting areas for
future research.
Conceptual Framework: Combining Environmental Leapfrogging
and Systems Thinking for Sustainable Consumption
From Environmental Leapfrogging to Lifestyle Leapfrogging
Sustainable development requires the explicit consideration of environmental issues such as
ecosystem degradation, resource depletion, and rising greenhouse gas emissions as driven by
economic growth and development. The concept of technological leapfrogging which focuses
on competitiveness and global market shares of industry sectors has been modified and
extended to develop the idea of environmental leapfrogging, to address the issue of sustainable
industrial development in developing and emerging economies (Perkins 2003;Sauterand
Wat so n 2008). Environmental leapfrogging proposes environmentally oriented development
alternatives in the greening of production processes (Ho 2005). The concept offers, at least in
theory, the prospect that emerging countries can avoid replicating the historical polluting and
resource-intense development trajectory of the industrial West and shape their development to
meet their own needs and requirements (Goldemberg 1998). Figure 1provides a visual
representation of an environmental leapfrogging pathway to achieve sustainable development.
Just as there is debate about whether industry sectors in developing countries have indeed
leapfrogged ahead of industrialized countries in terms of competitiveness, innovation, and
market shares (e.g., Hobday 1994), opinions are divided about the applicability of the concept
of environmental leapfrogging in newly industrializing developing countries and emerging
economies. While some consider it both possible and necessary (Choucri 1998; Goldemberg
Environmental Impacts through
(pollution, resource consumption, GHG emissions, etc)
low high
low high
Development level
(social-economic development, human well-being, happiness, etc.)
Development path of industrialised countries
Possible leapfrogging or “tunnellingthrough” pathway
Environmental safety threshold
Fig. 1 The process of leapfrogging using strategies for sustainability (sources: Berrah et al. 2007; Munasinghe
1999; UNEP-DTIE 2006;)
BLifestyle Leapfrogging^in Emerging Economies
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1998; Tukker 2005), for others, the concept is problematic and has attracted considerable
skepticism. Empirical evidence on technological change in many developing countries tends to
lend more support to the idea of slow incremental technological changes, rather than radical
changes and leapfrogging (see Ho 2005;Perkins2003;Rocketal.2008). Additionally, many
have pointed out that the environmental Kuznets curve which is implicit in the environmental
leapfrogging concept does not apply to many types of environmental impacts, notably
greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) which have continued to rise in developed countries even
after they achieve a Bhigh^development level (Spangenberg 2001; Stern 2004). Nevertheless,
despite these criticisms, the idea of leapfrogging offers a powerful conceptual tool to consider
alternative development trajectories.a
To date, leapfrogging scholarship has been disproportionately focused on technological
solutions, focusing mainly on the greening of the production process through technological
innovations and failing to bring the domain of consumption or human behaviour under its
purview. This neglect of so-called soft factors such as consumer behaviour and consumption
patterns has significantly limited the explanatory and transformative power of the idea of
leapfrogging. Our work extends the idea of leapfrogging into the domain of consumption and
behaviour to ask if and how consumers in developing and emerging economies might adopt
sustainable consumption practices from the outset, side-stepping the resource-intense con-
sumption patterns of the developed world. In the next section, we briefly review the literature
on sustainable consumption approaches, highlighting two main variants, strong versus weak
sustainable consumption, and bring these into conversation with the conceptual tool of lifestyle
leapfrogging.
Sustainable Consumption
Consumption, what, how much, and by whom, has direct and indirect effects on ecosystems.
The greenhouse gas emissions produced through consumptive activities are especially impor-
tant in the context of climate change (Davis and Caldiera 2010). The inertia of lifestyles and
the difficulty of achieving pro-environmental behaviour in developed countries (Jackson 2005;
Jackson 2008) are increasingly recognized as an important barrier to solving environmental
problems (Whitmarsh 2009). The literature on socio-technical systems (e.g., Geels 2010)and
eco-innovation (e.g., Bleischwitz et al. 2009) also emphasizes the need to consider the Bhuman
element^in systemic changes for sustainability. It is now becoming apparent that individuals
and their daily consumption choices such as driving personal automobiles, eating food, taking
vacations, and using electricity in the home matter as much, if not more, than technical
processes on the supply side (Sovacool 2014).
While the use of terms like sustainable lifestyles and sustainable consumption is
becoming ubiquitous, critical engagement with the concept is still limited (Sedlacko
et al. 2014). Most uses of these terms are best characterized as representing a form of
Bweak sustainable consumption^(Lorek and Fuchs 2013) which fundamentally focuses
on improving the eco-efficiency of consumption activities, but does not seek any
absolute reductions in consumption levels or fundamental shifts in consumption patterns
(Fuchs and Lorek 2005). Weak sustainable consumption approaches include campaigns
that seek to promote green purchasing behaviour and product choices (Young et al. 2010)
which require increasingly complex decision-making processes by the consumer along-
side looking to improve the efficiency of production and distribution processes via
technological innovations.
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Weak sustainable consumption is contrasted with strong sustainable consumption, where
the goal is a systemic shift in consumption patterns resulting in absolute reductions in
consumption levels and the environmental impacts they produce. Strong sustainable consump-
tion requires an explicit focus on the sociological and psychological factors determining
consumption choices including social identity, habits, and practices related to values and
cultural norms (Evans and Jackson 2007), alongside a consideration of the political economy
and the socio-technical systems within which consumption practices are embedded. Strong
sustainable consumption also goes beyond viewing individuals simply as consumers of
products but also acknowledges their other identities as community members and
(ecological) citizens (Seyfang 2006,2010). Strong sustainable consumption thus is fundamen-
tally about reconfiguring social practices (Warde 2005) and the political–economic and socio-
technical regimes in which they are embedded (Hargreaves et al. 2013) and, in our opinion,
about finding balance between reformist efforts that focus solely on green purchasing and eco-
innovations and radical approaches that call for the end of consumer capitalism (Geels et al.
2015). For the adoption of green and eco-efficient products, the concept of lifestyle leapfrog-
ging draws on Goldenberg and Oreg (2007) who, in their study on the consumer leapfrogging
effect, focus on Blaggards^who hold on to old technologies longer than other consumers, but
adopt the latest technologies when their old product breaks. They jump intermediate product
stages of less advanced technologies to latest innovations. Goldenberg and Oreg (2007)
specifically raise the question of how late adopters of new technologies can be incentivized
to make the switch to the latest technologies earlier than normal. This question is relevant to
emerging consumers in developing countries, Blaggards in consumption,^and the potential to
achieve uptake of eco-efficient products from the outset. Sauter and Watson (2008), in their
discussion on technological leapfrogging, also emphasize the potential involvement of con-
sumers to support leapfrogging through adoption of efficient products. The adoption of the
most efficient technologies available to households can include efficient lighting, energy-
efficient appliances and electronics, the installation of solar water heaters or even solar PV
home systems, highly efficient vehicles, and increasingly even electric vehicles.
Lifestyle Leapfrogging for Weak Sustainable Consumption in India
and China
Just like there has been a significant focus on Bgreening^consumption through market-based
alternatives in the global north, lifestyle leapfrogging to Bweak^sustainable consumption is
already taking hold in emerging economies. Some level of lifestyle leapfrogging for weak
sustainable consumption is already taking place in India and China, where government and
businesses are promoting various forms of green consumption.
Green Consumption of Energy-Efficient Appliances in China
In China, a wide range of government policies support green consumption, and the uptake of
more efficient products has been implemented in China. For example, in 2008, the government
launched the ^Financial Subsidies Fund of Promoting High Efficient Lighting^to enable
Chinese consumers to afford the initial purchase of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs). The
electricity consumption for lighting accounts for more than 10% of the total electricity
consumption in China (Han 2009). Initially in 2008, 62 million CFLs were subsidized through
BLifestyle Leapfrogging^in Emerging Economies
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the fund; in 2009, this number rose to 120 million and to 150 million in 2010. Another
development regarding the uptake of green and energy-efficient products in China is the
diffusion of solar water heaters which are being used by more than 200 million Chinese
people. The application of solar water heaters in the building sector has already enabled several
Chinese cities to achieve technological leapfrogging in buildings (Schroeder and Chapman
2014), and the technology is installed in more than 10% of all Chinese homes (Huang and
Gong 2010), accounting for about 64% of global installed capacity (REN21 2015)(Fig.2).
Overall, however, the uptake of green products is slow, despite supportive policies. Liu
(2010) identified low environmental awareness, perception of little personal responsibility as
consumer, and lacking available information on green products as significant obstacles to
green purchasing decision. Also, behavioural changes, for instance to reduce electricity
consumption patterns in households through conservation, prove difficult to implement.
Awareness among the older generation in China to save energy is in general very high;
however, among younger generations, this awareness seems much less developed. For exam-
ple, according to a regional study about consumer attitudes relating to energy use in Liaoning
Province, roughly half (45%) of the respondents reported that they have never thought about
conserving electricity or energy efficiency before, and 10% of the respondents stated that,
although they knew how to save electricity, they decided not to (Feng et al. 2010). These issues
suggest that green consumption efforts have limited potential to truly reset the development
and consumption trajectories in China.
Green Consumption of Energy-Efficient Products in India
The Indian government has introduced a number of measures to increase the uptake of energy-
efficient products. India faces a severe energy shortage and imports much of its fossil fuels
(McNeil et al. 2008). As part of the Energy Conservation Act 2001, the government instituted
the Bureau of Energy Efficiency, a statutory public body that devises and implements measures
to reduce the energy intensity of the Indian economy (Balachandra et al. 2010). The Bureau of
Energy Efficiency (BEE) introduced a voluntary rating system for appliances like air condi-
tioners and refrigerators in 2006. Since 2011, mandatory norms and labelling standards have
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50
100
150
200
250
300
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Installed capacity growth of China's solar water
heating 2006-2013 (GWth)
Fig. 2 Growth of installed capacity of China’s solar water heating collectors, 2006–2013 (authors’assessment
based on data from REN21 (2015) and information provided by the China Renewable Energy Industry
Association)
Schroeder P., Anantharaman M.
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been introduced for four product categories, air conditioners, refrigerators, tubular fluorescent
lamps, and distributive transformers, with eight other appliance categories having voluntary
labelling systems. BEE estimates that these labels have alleviated the need for additional
energy-generation capacity in the 2007–2012 period by 7 GW (i.e., in the absence of these
initiatives, the Indian economy would have had to have generated another 7 GW of electricity
to support its production and consumption functions) (Chaudhary et al. 2012). The other space
where the government has made efforts to influence the uptake of more efficient options is in
the residential and industrial lighting sectors. Through its Bachat Lamp Yojana programme, the
BEE has tried to reduce the electricity demand for lighting, which constitutes approximately
20% of the total electricity demand in the country (Chaudhary et al. 2012). The construction of
LEED-certified energy-efficient buildings and the development of an energy efficiency build-
ing code for residential and commercial complexes are another initiative that aims to reduce
the consumption of energy in households (Chaudhary et al. 2012).
Policy efforts to encourage some forms on green consumption are complemented by
growing environmental awareness of the impacts of daily activities. Some surveys have shown
that many urban Indians are willing to adopt eco-friendly practices, even at a cost. For
example, a 2012 survey of attitudes towards environmental issues in India showed that a
majority of survey respondents favored policies that would reduce the environmental impacts
of consumption activities. Policies that had support included increasing the cost of energy to
ensure less of it is used and requiring that new automobiles be more fuel efficient (Yale Project
on Climate Change Communication 2012). However, by and large, these efforts at promoting
green consumption options are few and far in between and have failed to have any impact on
overall environmental impacts from consumption in India, particularly in Indian cities.
Lifestyle Leapfrogging to Strong Sustainable Consumption
While lifestyle leapfrogging to weak sustainable consumption through the uptake of efficient
products offers some possibilities for reduced environmental impacts, it falls short of enabling
systemic shifts to sustainable lifestyles. Lifestyle leapfrogging to strong sustainable consump-
tion would entail a qualitative shift in consumption practices through the use of the most
efficient technologies available and behavioural changes which would still result in an increase
of Bquality of life,^but would not result in an increase of overall material consumption
comparable to the level of consumption levels in western consumer societies.
Therefore, for emerging consumers, lifestyle leapfrogging would also require some form of
resistance to the adoption of unsustainable western-style consumption patterns. It would not
require downshifting or simplifying from a state of over-consumption (Jackson 2008), as is
required for many consumers in western societies and those consumers in developing countries
already following western lifestyles. Instead, it would mean maintaining a level of moderation
in material consumption patterns and, in the case of rise from poverty, achieving a moderate
consumption pattern and not adopting certain consumption patterns with high environmental
impacts, such as urban transport by private cars, meat-intensive diets, excessive accumulation
of electronic gadgets and household appliances, or holiday travel by plane, for example.
Resisting western consumption patterns can prevent Block-in^and path dependency of
lifestyles. In the context of climate change, Bcarbon lock-in^applies not only to carbon-
intensive infrastructures and investment but also to lifestyles and social activities with high
carbon intensity (Maréchal 2010). If people’s beliefs, habits, and behavioural patterns centre
BLifestyle Leapfrogging^in Emerging Economies
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around having an energy-intensive lifestyle based on the current BAmerican model,^such a
lifestyle could become a key part of an overall social and cultural pattern of behavioural carbon
lock-in that includes high-carbon technologies and infrastructures and associated cultures,
institutions, and policies (Unruh and Carrillo-Hermosilla 2006). Developing countries such as
China and India are characterized by societies that are already changing rapidly. It might
therefore prove easier to guide the direction of this transition towards sustainable lifestyles than
achieving this in more stable developed countries with locked-in consumption patterns.
An additional dimension are the so-called downshifters or voluntary simplifiers who
consciously reduce levels of consumption and seek for alternatives to consumerism, resulting
in behaviours that produce fewer GHG emissions (see Swim et al. 2011). According to Lee
et al. (2011), further distinctions can be made between Banti-consumption^behaviour and
consumer resistance, although overlaps exist. Anti-consumption mainly entails three phenom-
ena: reject, restrict, and reclaim. In processes of rejecting, individuals intentionally and
meaningfully exclude particular goods from their consumption cycle. Restricting incorporates
cutting, lowering, and limiting consumption of specific goods and services when complete
anti-consumption is not possible. Reclaim represents an ideological shift regarding the pro-
cesses of acquisition, use, and dispossession, e.g., voluntary simplifiers reclaim their identity
via production instead of consumption, when they choose to grow their own vegetables rather
than acquire them through conventional markets. In comparison, consumer resistance focuses
on consumers opposing a dominant force or structure exerted by certain actors, behaviours,
and devices. For the three demand areas with the highest impacts food and drink, housing, and
mobility, as identified by the EIPRO Study (Tukker et al. 2006), some options and elements
necessary to achieve strong sustainable consumption behaviour are listed in Table 1.
We would argue, to prevent both direct and indirect rebound effects (Sorrell 2007)which
can become serious problems for developing countries as consumption of energy services is
Tab le 1 Building blocks for strong sustainable consumption in the domains of food and drink, housing, and
mobility
Type of approach Food and drink Housing Mobility
Green
consumption
Choice of organic food and
fair trade products from
large retailers
Energy-efficient housing,
choosing green power
provider, renewable energy
applications for buildings
(e.g., solar water heating,
solar PV, heat pumps),
green building materials,
energy-efficient appliances
Purchase and use of
fuel-efficient cars, elec-
tric vehicles, fuel cell
vehicles
Anti-consumption
(reject, restrict,
and reclaim)
Rejection of highly processed
food, supporting locally
grown food and farmers
markets, urban gardening
initiatives and
home-grown vegetables
and fruits
Reduction of appliances in the
home, turning off
appliances, use of
alternative heating and
cooling solutions, voluntary
behavioural changes of
occupants
Voluntary choice of public
transport, cycling,
walking, car sharing
Consumer
resistance
Opposition to fast food
chains, factory farming,
etc.
Resistance to fossil fuel-based
power providers, opposition
to large unsustainable real
estate developments and re-
al estate speculation
Neighbourhood initiatives
for car-free zones, op-
position to new high-
way and ro ad
constructions
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not yet saturated (van den Bergh 2011), that the strong sustainable consumption dimension of
lifestyle leapfrogging incorporating elements of anti-consumption behaviour is crucial. The
focus on changing behaviours and practices to achieve not only relative but also absolute
reductions in environmental impacts through reduced consumption, as advocated by environ-
mental groups (e.g., Friends of the Earth 2004), is therefore also relevant for emerging
consumers in developing countries, even if technical efficiency improvements and uptake of
greener products take place. In other words, we need lifestyle leapfrogging even if environ-
mental leapfrogging occurs. There is possibly also a larger role for consumer resistance in form
of social and political activism where traditional lifestyles and existing sustainable consump-
tion patterns are being eroded, e.g., in the demand area of food through unhealthy western-
style fast food diets.
While the contribution of social and behavioural changes to leapfrogging pathways is
difficult to quantify, the research cited above suggests that behavioural changes play a much
larger role than often assumed, possibly also for developing countries. The modest scale of
behavioural changes towards sustainable consumption thus far, relative to the growth in
demand for western-style consumption, might be an explanation of why many technology
leapfrogging attempts in developing countries have so far resulted in improvements of
resource and energy intensity, but not yielded absolute reductions in environmental impacts
such as air pollution, GHG emissions, water pollution, or waste. Lifestyle leapfrogging to
strong sustainable consumption would be desirable as high individual energy and resource
consumption patterns can offset reduction of environmental impacts, despite the occurrence of
technological leapfrogging giving rise to efficiency improvements.
Clearly, lifestyle leapfrogging will not occur without strong policy instruments to enable the
uptake of green products from the outset and strong measures to persuade new consumers’
resistance towards unsustainable consumption patterns, before lock-in effects take effect.
Several policy approaches could be instrumental in providing incentives for eco-innovation
and creating a demand for less environmentally damaging technologies and products. Gener-
ally, developing countries are lagging behind in the implementation of environmental policies
(Ho 2005); therefore, the early adoption of environmental policies by developing countries
will be an important factor to facilitate sustainable lifestyles. Also, early implementation of
policies that would internalize environmental costs on a macro level, such as a price on carbon
either through carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes, would be necessary. More specif-
ically, product-related policies based on life cycle assessments, such as efficiency standards for
products, sophisticated labelling schemes to inform and guide consumers, mandatory take-
back schemes, and recycling systems, are needed. Finally, policies which limit or even restrict
the sale and use of environmentally and/or socially damaging products would be useful.
A variety of concrete approaches addressing social–psychological factors can also be
applied to bring about the changes in consumption patterns or, more specifically, to encourage
emerging consumers to resist becoming western-style consumers. Setting basic advertising
norms for certain products to protect vulnerable target groups such as children, combined with
raising basic environmental awareness and education about the impacts of consumption,
would be worth exploring. These policy changes have to be supported by the work of civil
society and social movements that could aim at strengthening values, attitudes, and personal
norms which counter the spread of materialistic and consumerist attitudes and resist consump-
tion patterns characterized by accumulation of material possessions. These suggested policy
instruments and approaches are not fundamentally different from those necessary in consumer
societies, with the important difference that in developing country societies these would need
BLifestyle Leapfrogging^in Emerging Economies
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to be implemented before unsustainable lifestyles become entrenched. Nevertheless, it must be
acknowledged that certain facets of Bunsustainable^lifestyles are already entrenched in some
sections of society in developing countries, and lifestyle leapfrogging will require undoing
some of these Block-ins.^
A Systems-Based Approach for Engendering Lifestyle Leapfrogging
As the previous section demonstrates, lifestyle leapfrogging to strong sustainable consumption
will require an explicit analysis of the various drivers of consumption practices and devising
specific policy interventions. Such an analysis requires looking at the whole system of
consumption, and understanding of changes in one domain can have ripple effects. Systems-
thinking methods, emerging from the fields of cybernetics and statistical mechanics, offer
valuable tools to carry out these types of analysis.
Systems thinking is an analytical perspective which views an event or a system in a holistic
manner by placing explicit emphasis on the relationships and interactions between the system’s
elements and constituents and examining system properties that emerge from the interaction of
individual elements (Senge 1990). Key elements of systems thinking for sustainable consump-
tion include the consideration of feedback cycles between different elements of consumption
and production systems, system dynamics, and a system’s boundaries. Systems-based analyses
have been applied to various problems of sustainability transitions and sustainable consump-
tion, for instance, the reduction of barriers to energy efficiency (Chai and Yeo 2012)andin
exploring mental models for sustainable consumption (Sedlacko et al. 2014).
The contribution of systems thinking to sustainability transitions has been summarized by
Fath (2014), distilling ideas from three leading systems thinkers including Niklas Luhman
(e.g., Luhmann 1992), Bernard Patten (e.g., Patten 1978,1991), and Christopher Alexander
(1964,2012). Foundational concepts in systems theory are boundaries and input–output-
oriented interactions. For example, output of one object, through a series of direct linkages,
indirectly connects back again as input to the original generating object. Thereby, processes
embedded in and contributing to a larger system provide positive and negative feedback such
that their actions close back around on the function itself (Fath 2014). Drawing on Alexander
(2012), one additional important feature of sustainable systems is that the system boundaries
are not crisp but fuzzy and that multiple systems can overlap. Furthermore, the centre of a
system engages in interactions which aim at structure-preserving transformations. In other
words, stable systems have both positive cycles and negative cycles (also known as reinforcing
loops and balancing loops in causal loop diagrams) that work together to maintain system
stability. Understanding this concept of structure-preserving transformation of a system can be
helpful in understanding how and why systems can become locked in and when they might be
unbalanced and can then be transformed.
Systems-thinking perspectives enable the examination of endogenous causes of stability
and change and help us avoid falling into the trap of assuming that barriers to change are solely
caused by external events. Rather, systems thinking enables the examination of endogenous
causes of stability and change. Furthermore, a systems perspective dissolves the perception
that barriers are independent of each other and enables the examination of emergent properties
that can only be understood by considering the whole as opposed to the sum of parts. This
would mean that strategies aiming for strong sustainable consumption need to consider the
interactions and feedbacks between technological and behavioural system components.
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In the following two sub-sections, we apply systems thinking to two case studies to explore
how lifestyle leapfrogging to strong sustainable consumption could be brought about. We
focus on two systems, sustainable mobility in Indian cities and energy-efficient residential
buildings in China. We distinguish three main dimensions of each system—policy, market, and
society—and describe the interaction and positive and negative feedback cycles between the
elements either driving or preventing lifestyle leapfrogging. In particular, in this paper, we
follow Sedlacko et al. (2014) who use causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to explore the potential for
promoting sustainable consumption. In this paper, CLDs are used as a conceptual tool to
explain system dynamics of China’s residential energy efficiency and low-carbon mobility in
India. The outcomes of the analysis have been visualized through a combination of CLDs (see
Sedlacko et al. 2014) and the graphical presentation of the environmental Kuznets curve used
for visualizing leapfrogging processes (see Fig. 1). The results of this combination exercise are
shown in Figures 4and 8below which depict two pathways (business-as-usual and leapfrog-
ging) and the respective drivers for each pathway. The drivers for each pathway automatically
act as barriers to the other pathway, thereby maintaining stability of the system.
In addition, we constructed separate CLDs which depict the interconnections between
drivers and barriers of the different system variables of policy, market, and society (Figs. 3,
5,6,and7). In these CLDs, + indicates positive feedback and reinforcing loops, while −
indicates negative feedback and balancing loops. The double slash on the connection indicates
Fig. 3 Causal loop diagram (CLD) showing interconnections between system variables of low-energy housing
in China
BLifestyle Leapfrogging^in Emerging Economies
Author's personal copy

that the feedback takes place on a longer timescale. Further explanations about the specific
contents of the CLDs are provided below.
We constructed the CLDs for China and India based on various sources of information.
First, literature reviews on energy-efficient buildings in China and low-carbon mobility in
India were carried out. Secondly, interviews with stakeholders from the fields of housing and
mobility were carried out in China and India. The Indian CLDs were constructed using data
collected over 15 months of fieldwork by author Anantharaman in Bangalore, India, studying
the scope and potential for non-motorized transport and public transit in Bangalore, India.
During this fieldwork, Anantharaman interviewed 25 individuals and organizational represen-
tatives involved in promoting bicycling and public transit in Bangalore, in addition to
interacting with policymakers in official forums. Fieldwork data were combined with insights
from media articles on urban mobility in Bangalore and other Indian cities to present the
information below.
Furthermore, for the CLDs on China, the author Schroeder conducted site visits to
residential construction projects in Shenzhen, Beijing, and Nanjing in October 2015. Inter-
views with 10 experts and stakeholders from China’s building sector provided further infor-
mation about the relationships and dynamics between different system elements.
Leapfrogging Towards Low-Energy Housing in China
The number of people living in urban areas in China increased between 1980 and 2000,
growing from 193 million, or 19.5% of the total in 1970 to 451.8 million (Zhou et al. 2009), or
35.6% of the total in 2000. China’s urbanization rate reached 51% by the end of 2011 and is
expected to 60% by 2020, bringing the country’s urban population to around 850 million
(Xinhua 2012). China’s urbanization rate increases yearly by over 2%; as a result, the building
sector is expected to experience an increase of 2 billion square meters of buildings every year
until 2020 (Tsinghua University Building Energy Research Center 2007). The residential
housing sector in urban areas accounts for about 32% of China’s floor space (Tsinghua
University Building Energy Research Center 2012). This trend of urbanization, together with
rising energy consumption in urban areas, will lead to the building sector accounting for 35–
40% of China’s total energy consumption by 2020. The large number of new residential
buildings needed for the growing urban population shows that there are significant leapfrog-
ging potentials in the short and medium term, if low-energy housing is promoted in a
systematic approach. The CLD of Figure 3depicts the systemic barriers, the interactions,
and the feedback loops between different system variables of low-energy housing in China. In
particular, it shows the positive and negative feedback loops of reinforcing or balancing loops
between the different system variables of policy, market, and society.
As the detailed relationships and interactions between various barriers and drivers to
energy-efficient housing in China are complex, they can here only be described in a general
way that does not take into account regional differences. Overall, the current situation is
characterized by a major policy barrier, which is the lack of enforcement of energy-efficient
building codes for residential buildings on a local level. This is closely related to the fast pace
of the over-heated Chinese real estate market and speculation, which have driven up housing
prices beyond affordability for many families (B2). To reduce costs of construction, many
companies mainly rely on underpaid migrants from the countryside, often without specific
skills (B1). However, the correct application of advanced energy-efficient building materials
requires a certain set of skills; in addition, they have often higher costs than conventional
Schroeder P., Anantharaman M.
Author's personal copy

materials, both of which are barriers to their uptake. The enforcement of energy-efficient
building standards is a crucial policy element for the leapfrogging pathway, as it would
arguably put a brake on real estate speculation and at the same time stimulate subsidies as
well as skills training for construction workers. In turn, this reinforcing loop (R2) would
facilitate enforcement and gradual improvement of building standards and lead to higher
quality and better building performance.
The generally low energy prices in China are another barrier to stimulating energy saving
behaviour of residents. Furthermore, lack of heat metering systems in residential apartments
acts against reduction of energy use in buildings (B3). Based on the current model, centralized
space heating is provided during the winter months to most residential buildings based on a flat
rate that is calculated according to floor space, not based on actual usage. In most cases,
residents do not know how much energy the consumer uses for heating. Besides this, heating
systems in many cases cannot be switched off or residents cannot adjust indoor temperatures
manually. If indoor temperatures are too high for comfort, windows are opened to reduce
indoor temperature. The installation of heat metering systems (technical/market dimension)
combined with energy pricing reform for heating (policy dimension) is an example of how
these changes can affect behavioural changes of occupants (social dimension), another crucial
element for the leapfrogging pathway. The installation of heat meters, radiators with adjustable
temperature regulators in new buildings, and, most importantly, a pricing reform that will
reward energy saving behaviour of residents can facilitate strong sustainable consumption in
the domain of housing for tens of millions of China’s new urban residents.
For electricity used in residential buildings, the Chinese government has already begun the
implementation of a tiered electricity pricing system to encourage energy-efficient consump-
tion behaviour and to increase residents’awareness. In July 2012, the electricity departments in
China reformed electricity prices to a tiered electricity power tariff (jie ti dian jia) for
residential energy users across China. The goal is to form a market-oriented price scheme
where the market plays the main role, while the macro-level national policy controls and sets
the basic standard. The Chinese government estimates that 5% of the population—the very
highest income earners—account for 24% of domestic electricity consumption in China, while
the top 10% use 33% of electricity (Cui 2012). The tiered power tariff aims to address this
group of consumers in particular. The challenge with such an instrument is the huge income
gap within the Chinese population. There is the danger that such an instrument is regressive
and could negatively impact on low-income groups. Overall, the tiered power tariff coupled
with other measures can lead to a reduction in energy consumption in residential buildings.
In the social domain, changing lifestyles of urban residents are emerging as a major driver
for increasing energy demand from residential buildings. The impact of human behaviour
upon energy use has in many cases already outpaced technical improvements in China’s
building sector. Energy use (excluding heating) in residential buildings is still lower than in
developed countries. This is mainly due to different lifestyles and habits that are dominant in
local society and the community, such as part-time and part-space operation of cooling/heating
devices, opening windows for natural ventilation, keeping warmer clothing for lower indoor
set temperature, etc. However, these Banti-consumption^practices of the older generation are
lost as more people from the countryside move into cities and western building designs and
structures are adopted, and the energy consumed per capita due to the lifestyle habits of the
Chinese urban consumers increases. This is especially true for younger people who follow
western lifestyle models with low consciousness about energy consumption, acting against a
leapfrogging pathway. Specific research on the interconnections between occupant behaviour,
BLifestyle Leapfrogging^in Emerging Economies
Author's personal copy

household needs, consumer choices, and lifestyle issues in China is so far limited, but
necessary to further understand the role of these factors in driving or preventing energy-
efficient housing solutions.
One important element influencing consumer awareness and lifestyle choices, which only
emerged in recent years, is the worsening air pollution in Chinese cities. It is to a large degree a
result of the current energy and heating supply system and partly the result of energy
consumption habits of urban residents. As air quality worsens and negatively impacts the
health of tens of millions of urban residents, it positively impacts awareness about sustainable
consumption choices and thereby acts as a positive driver for the market as consumers demand
more energy efficiency buildings (R1). One can also begin to observe the emergence of
elements of Bconsumer resistance^against the political and economic causes of air pollution,
which also is having an impact on policies.
Figure 4combines and synthesizes the leapfrogging concept and the elements of the CLD
above and shows two possible pathways for China’s housing development: first, business-as-
usual development which would lead to a growing stock of inefficient residential buildings,
thereby locking Chinese cities into high energy consumption trajectories, and secondly, a
leapfrogging pathway for the residential building sector, which would bypass the situation of
lock-in into a low-efficiency building stock.
Leapfrogging Towards Sustainable Urban Mobility in India
The ownership and use of personal automobiles in India has been growing steadily for the past
three decades, particularly in its cities. The liberalization of the Indian economy beginning in
the late 1980s heralded the arrival of a wider variety of car and motorcycle brands in the
nation. As new consumption options became available, export and foreign direct investment-
Fig. 4 Leapfrogging causal loop diagram (CLD) contrasting Blifestyle leapfrogging^towards low-energy
housing in China and business-as-usual development
Schroeder P., Anantharaman M.
Author's personal copy

driven growth produced new opportunities and rising incomes for a section of the Indian
population, prompting the emergence of a new middle class that practiced global consumer
lifestyles (Fernandes and Heller 2006;Mawdsley2004;Upadhya2009). As India began to
grow a consumer economy, cars soon solidified their position as a key middle-class status
marker (Baviskar 2011). This bevy of consumption options combined with an emergence of a
Bnew^middle class of consumers opened the floodgates to the rapid automobilization of
Indian cities, which have traditionally had high rates of bicycling, walking, and public transit
use.
The causal loop diagram depicted in Figure 5demonstrates how factors operating at the
policy, market, and society levels combine to prompt the rapid automobilization of Indian
cities. In India today, the use and ownership of cars and motorcycles is a critical way of
signaling social status and Bhaving made it.^Car and motorcycle advertisements, which are
constantly played on most television channels, sometimes cover the front pages of newspapers,
and pepper city landscapes in the form of massive billboards play on themes of cool, comfort,
belonging, and exclusion to encourage the purchase and use of personal automobiles. These
advertisements also stigmatize other modes of transport like bicycling, signaling them as
inferior to car use. Banks and other financial institutions team up with car manufacturers
and retailers to offer financing schemes for car purchases. Consequently, Indian consumers
buy cars and motorcycles as soon as they are able to afford them (Wilhite 2008). The CLD of
Figure 5has two reinforcing loops: R1 which relates to how the city apportions its budgets and
R2 related to social norms around the car. Both these feedback loops drive the system towards
more car usage. The only balancing loop in this system (B1) is the feedback between traffic
congestion and social norms. Indian cities are plagued by traffic congestion, which offsets the
idea that cars are the most Bcool^and convenient transport option available to commuters in
the city.
Fig. 5 Causal loop diagram (CLD) depicting how Indian cities become locked in to paths of rapid
automobilization
BLifestyle Leapfrogging^in Emerging Economies
Author's personal copy

Market forces and strong social norms are coupled with government support, and all these
forces combine to change the physical form of Indian cities to accommodate cars and
motorcycles. Municipal governments in major Indian cities have largely focused on improving
infrastructure for motor vehicles by widening roads (often by felling trees) and constructing
flyovers and signal-free corridors (Nair 2005) (loop R1 in the CLD). In an extreme move,
bicycling has been criminalized in the Indian city of Kolkota (Gupta 2013). These changes to
roadways have come at the cost of other transport modes such as bicycling, walking, and
public transit. While there has been some effort to improve public transit options in major cities
like Delhi, Chennai, and Bangalore by constructing new metro systems and making marginal
improvements to bus services, these have been largely subordinated to car-focused urban
planning. Further, public transport companies are usually poorly funded and operate on losses
and are unable to modernize their existing fleet of vehicles (Pucher et al. 2005). The rising
automobilization of Indian cities has also increased road fatalities. For instance, in 2007, 961
persons were killed and 6591 persons injured by motor vehicles in Bangalore, many of them
cyclists and pedestrians (Rahul and Verma 2013). All these factors prompt non-motorized
transit (NMT) and public transit users to Bupgrade^to motorcycles and other types of
automobiles when possible (Nair 2005; Tiwari and Jain 2013).
This trend of rapid automobilization could be stalled and averted through policy interven-
tions and increased market provision of alternate transport modes and by changing social
norms around car use and status (see Fig. 6). There are several social movements in Indian
cities that are pushing for bicycling infrastructure and public transit. These social movements
Fig. 6 Causal loop diagram (CLD) depicting how automobilization could be countered by civil society activism
pushing for more NMT and public transit options
Schroeder P., Anantharaman M.
Author's personal copy

contest the dominant social norm that cars are the most convenient and status-affirming
transport option available in Indian cities. Instead, they are developing alternate discourses
around what constitutes a good and respectable life in urban India. These discourses frequently
draw on environmental themes to motivate alternate visions, and the degrading quality of
urban environments is a major motivating factor for this civil society action (Anantharaman
2016).
The CLD of Figure 6has two reinforcing loops: R1 which relates to how the city apportions
its budgets and R2 related to social norms around car. Both these feedback loops drive the
system towards more car usage. However, in this CLD, there are two balancing loops: The first
balancing loop in this system (B1) is the feedback between traffic congestion and social norms.
Citizen activism for NMTand public transit can in the long term help overturn dominant social
norms around car use, balancing rapid automobilization (B2).
Civil society action can in turn precipitate changes in policy. The policy changes required to
reverse automobilization could include increased investment in public transport and non-
motorized transit infrastructure. These funds could be obtained by diverting budgets from
road widening and flyover construction and by implementing congestion charges and parking
fees in Indian cities, which would in turn increase the costs associated with car use. Controls
could be placed on car advertisements, especially those targeting children and other vulnerable
groups. Similarly, on the market side, there would have to be more options available for non-
motorized transit users like hi-tech bicycles that allow one to travel longer distances and
investment in modernizing the bus fleet with clean energy. Citizen activism for NMT and
Fig. 7 Causal loop diagram (CLD) depicting how Indian cities could rapidly deautomobilize through policy,
market, and civil society action
BLifestyle Leapfrogging^in Emerging Economies
Author's personal copy

public transit can in the long term help overturn dominant social norms around car use,
balancing rapid automobilization (B3). It can also drive more budget allocation for public
transit and NMT, which can in turn dampen automobilization (B1). Controls on advertising
combined with increased market provision of hi-tech bicycles can help destigmatize bicycles
and buses, decreasing car use in turn (B2) (see Fig. 7).
Figure 8synthesizes these individual CLDs to show how targeted policy, market, and civil
society interventions can help drive a leapfrogging towards more sustainable mobility in
Indian cities. It also presents the factors acting as barriers to leapfrogging, which Bdrive^
business-as-usual development.
Conclusion
The paper started out from the hypothesis that leapfrogging unsustainable consumption
patterns is in theory a viable option for emerging consumers in India and China. The
systems-thinking analysis of two cases from China and India in the areas of residential housing
and mobility show that lifestyle leapfrogging could be realized through targeted interventions
in policy, market, and civil society. The purpose of this paper is not to make celebratory
statements about the sustainable consumption efforts being promoted in India or China, or to
gloss over the fact that consumption and consumerism are overall rising in these nations.
Rather, it seeks to apply systems perspectives and the leapfrogging concept to locate mech-
anisms and processes by which these trajectories could be altered. It highlights the importance
of explicitly differentiating strong versus weak consumption, recognizing that any serious
efforts at sustainability in these two countries will have to involve resistance and downshifting
Fig. 8 Leapfrogging causal loop diagram (CLD) contrasting Blifestyle leapfrogging^towards sustainable urban
mobility in India and business-as-usual development
Schroeder P., Anantharaman M.
Author's personal copy

in some cases. Both case studies, although they analyse different sectors, highlight the need for
strong policy action as a key driver of Blifestyle leapfrogging.^
Both countries are already implementing measures that are a departure from the business-
as-usual development pathway of developed countries, and these can potentially enable
systemic shifts in consumption patterns and lifestyles of urban consumers. In particular,
China’s and India’s consumer-targeted policies in these two areas deserve attention and can
serve as examples for both developing and industrialized countries. Further research on
leapfrogging potentials in other developing countries with case studies from mobility, housing,
and food applying systems thinking would be of interest for comparative research. Finally,
while the Bleapfrogging^concept might implicitly suggest that developed countries Bhave
reached the right destination^and that developing countries only have to figure out how to get
there faster, we here posit that developing countries already have several sustainable practices
that are important to preserve. The challenge for future research and practice is to analyse and
understand how to Bleapfrog^past the unsustainable practices of the developed world to new
and distinctive sustainable futures in emerging economies.
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