Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 2nd edition, 4 volumes

Abstract

The second edition of this important work covers additional topics of climate change mitigation and adaption strategies. It expands the scope of the first edition in the areas of mitigation and adds important new information on adaptation to climate change. Since the publication of the first edition, important new research findings have been gathered and natural events have continued to highlight the need for action.

Full text

Introduction to Climate Change Mitigation
Maximilian Lackner
a
*, Wei-Yin Chen
b
and Toshio Suzuki
c
a
Institute of Chemical Engineering, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria
b
Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Mississippi, University, MS, USA
c
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Nagoya, Japan
Abstract
Since the first edition of the Handbook, important new research findings on climate change have been
gathered. The handbook was extended to also cover, apart from climate change mitigation, climate change
adaptation as one can witness increasing initiatives to cope with the phenomenon. Instrumental recording
shows a temperature increase of 0.5 C Le Houérou (J Arid Environ 34:133–185, 1996) with rather
different regional patterns and trends (Folland CK, Karl TR, Nicholls N, Nyenzi BS, Parker DE, Vinnikov
KYA (1992) Observed climate variability and change. In: Houghton JT, Callander BA, Varney SDK (eds)
Climate change, the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, pp 135–170). Over the last several million years, there have been warmer and colder periods
on Earth, and the climate fluctuates for a variety of natural reasons as data from tree rings, pollen, and ice
core samples have shown. However, human activities on Earth have reached an extent that they impact the
globe in potentially catastrophic ways. This chapter is an introduction to climate change.
Climate Change
There has been a heated discussion on climate change in recent years, with a particular focus on global
warming. Over the last several million years, there have been warmer and colder periods on Earth, and the
climate fluctuates for a variety of natural reasons as data from tree rings, pollen, and ice core samples have
shown. For instance, in the Pleistocene, the geological epoch which lasted from about 2,588,000 to
11,700 years ago, the world saw repeated glaciations (“ice age”). More recently, “Little Ice Age”and the
“Medieval Warm Period”(IPCC) occurred. Several causes have been suggested such as cyclical lows in
solar radiation, heightened volcanic activity, changes in the ocean circulation, and an inherent variability
in global climate. Also on Mars, climate change was inferred from orbiting spacecraft images of fluvial
landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions (Haberle et al. 2012). Spin axis/
orbital variations, which are more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth, are seen as main reasons. As to
recent climate change on Earth, there is evidence that it is brought about by human activity and that its
magnitude and effects are of strong concern.
Instrumental recording of temperatures has been available for less than 200 years. Over the last
100 years, a temperature increase of 0.5 C could be measured (Le Houérou 1996) with rather different
regional patterns and trends (Folland et al. 1992). In (Ehrlich 2000), Bruce D. Smith is quoted as saying,
“The changes brought over the past 10,000 years as agricultural landscapes replaced wild plant and
animal communities, while not so abrupt as those caused by the impact of an asteroid as the Cretaceous-
Tertiary boundary some 65 Ma ago or so massive as those caused by advancing glacial ice in the
Pleistocene, are nonetheless comparable to these other forces of global change.”At the Earth Summit in
Rio de Janeiro in 1992, over 159 countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (FCCC, also called “Climate Convention”) in order to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas
*Email: maximilian.lackner@tuwien.ac.at
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Fig. 1 (a) Observed global mean combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies, from 1850 to 2012 from three data
sets. Top panel: annual mean values. Bottom panel: decadal mean values including the estimate of uncertainty for one dataset
(black). Anomalies are relative to the mean of 1961–1990. (b) Map of the observed surface temperature change from 1901 to
2012 derived from temperature trends determined by linear regression from one dataset (orange line in panel a). Trends have
been calculated where data availability permits a robust estimate (i.e., only for grid boxes with greater than 70 % complete
records and more than 20 % data availability in the first and last 10 % of the time period). Other areas are white. Grid boxes
where the trend is significant at the 10 % level are indicated by a + sign (Source: IPCC (IPCC 2013))
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concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with
the climate system”(United Nations (UN) 1992). In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007) wrote, “An increasing body
of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system...
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities.”
In its fourth assessment report of 2007, the IPCC stated that human actions are “very likely”the cause
of global warming. More specifically, there is a 90 % probability that the burning of fossil fuels and other
anthropogenic factors such as deforestation and the use of certain chemicals have already led to an
increase of 0.75in average global temperatures over the last 100 years and that the increase in hurricane
and tropical cyclone strength since 1970 also results from man-made climate change.
In its fifth assessment report of 2013, the IPCC confirms their findings as “Warming of the climate system
is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to
millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level
has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased”(IPCC 2013).
Figures 1and 2show some details of IPCC’sfindings.
Fig. 2 Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main drivers of climate change.
Values are global average radiative forcing (RF), partitioned according to the emitted compounds or processes that result in a
combination of drivers. The best estimates of the net radiative forcing are shown as black diamonds with corresponding
uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are provided on the right of the figure, together with the confidence level in the net
forcing (VH very high, Hhigh, Mmedium, Llow, VL very low). Albedo forcing due to black carbon on snow and ice is
included in the black carbon aerosol bar. Small forcings due to contrails (0.05 W m
2
, including contrail induced cirrus), and
HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (total 0.03 W m
2
) are not shown. Concentration-based RFs for gases can be obtained by summing the
like-coloured bars. Volcanic forcing is not included as its episodic nature makes is difficult to compare to other forcing
mechanisms. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is provided for three different years relative to 1750 (Source: IPCC (IPCC
2013))
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In Fig. 2, natural and man-made (anthropogenic) radiative forcings (RF) are depicted. RF, or climate
forcing, expressed in W/m
2
, is a change in energy flux, viz., the difference of incoming energy (sunlight)
absorbed by Earth and outgoing energy (that radiated back into space). A positive forcing warms up the
system, while negative forcing cools it down.
(Anthropogenic) CO
2
emissions, which have been accumulating in the atmosphere at an increasing rate
since the Industrial Revolution, were identified as the main driver.
The position of the IPCC has been adopted by several renowned scientific societies, and a consensus
has emerged on the causes and partially on the consequences of climate change. The history of climate
change science is reviewed in (Miller et al. 2009). There are researchers who oppose the scientific
mainstream’s assessment of global warming (Linden 1993). However, the public seems to be unaware
of the high degree of consensus that has been achieved in the scientific community, as elaborated in a 2009
World Bank report (Worldbank 2009). In (Antilla 2005), there is a treatment of the mass media’s coverage
of the climate change discussion with a focus on rhetoric that emphasizes uncertainty, controversy, and
climate scepticism. Climate change skeptic films were found to have a strong influence on the general
public’s environmental concern (Greitemeyer 2013).
The Greenhouse Effect
A greenhouse, also called a glass house, is a structure enclosed by glass or plastic which allows the
penetration of radiation to warm it. Gases capable of absorbing the radiant energy are called the
greenhouse gases (GHG). Greenhouses are used to grow flowers, vegetables, fruits, and tobacco through-
out the year in a warm, agreeable climate. On Earth, there is a phenomenon called the “natural
greenhouse”effect, or the Milankovitch cycles.
Without the greenhouse gas effect, which is chiefly based on water vapor in the atmosphere (Linden
2005) (i.e., clouds that trap infrared radiation), the average surface temperature on Earth would be 33 C
colder (Karl and Trenberth 2003). The natural greenhouse effect renders Earth habitable since the
temperature which would be expected from the thermal equilibrium of the irradiation from the sun and
radiative losses into space (radiation balance in the blackbody model) is approximately 18 C.
On the moon, for instance, where there is hardly any atmosphere, extreme surface temperatures range
from 233 C to 133 C (Winter 1967). On Venus, by contrast, the greenhouse effect in the dense CO
2

laden atmosphere results in an average surface temperature in excess of 450 C (Sonnabend et al. 2008;
Zasova et al. 2007).
The current discussion about global warming and climate change is centered on the anthropogenic
greenhouse effect. This is caused by the emission and accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmo-
sphere. These gases (water vapor, CO
2
,CH
4
,N
2
O, O
3,
and others) act by absorbing and emitting infrared
radiation. The combustion of fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas) has led mainly to an increase in the
CO
2
concentration in the atmosphere. Preindustrial levels of CO
2
(i.e., before the start of the Industrial
Revolution) were approximately 280 ppm, whereas today, they are above 380 ppm with an annual
increase of approximately 2 ppm. According to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES) (IPCC 2010a), by the end of the twenty-first century, the CO
2
concentration could reach levels
between 490 and 1,260 ppm, which are between 75 % and 350 % above the preindustrial levels,
respectively.
CO
2
is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas because of its comparatively high concen-
tration in the atmosphere. The effect of other greenhouse-active gases depends on their molecular
structure and their lifetime in the atmosphere, which can be expressed by their greenhouse warming
potential (GWP). GWP is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere.
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It compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass of the gas in question to the amount of heat
trapped by a similar mass of CO
2
. With a time horizon of 100 years, the GWP of CH
4
,N
2
O, and SF
6
with
respect to CO
2
is 25, 298, and 22,800, respectively (IPCC 2010b). But CO
2
has a much higher
concentration than other GHGs, and it is increasing at a higher rate due to burning of fossil fuels. Thus,
while the major mitigating emphasis has mainly been placed on CO
2
, efforts on mitigating CH
4
,N
2
O, and
SF
6
have also been active.
Anthropogenic Climate Change
The climate is governed by natural influences, yet human activities have an impact on it as well. The main
impact that humans exert on the climate is via the emission of greenhouse gases. Deforestation is another
example of an activity that influences the climate (McMichael et al. 2007). Figure 3shows the share of
greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors taken from (Quadrelli and Peterson 2007). The energy
sector is the dominant source of GHG emissions.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), if no action toward climate change mitigation is
taken, global warming could reach an increase of up to 6in average temperature (International Energy
Association IEA 2009). This temperature rise could cause devastating consequences on Earth, which will
be discussed briefly below.
Effects of Climate Change
Paleoclimatological data show that 100–200 Ma ago, almost all carbon was in the atmosphere as CO
2
,
with global temperatures being 10 C warmer and sea levels 50–100 m higher than today. Photosynthesis
and CO
2
uptake into the oceans took almost 200 Ma. Since the Industrial Revolution, i.e., during the last
200 years, this carbon is being put back into the atmosphere to a significant extent. This is a rate which is
10
7
times faster, so there is a risk of a possible “runaway”reaction greenhouse effect.
Figure 4shows the timescales of several different effects of climate change for the future.
Due to the long lifetime of CO
2
in the atmosphere, the effects of climate change until a new equilibrium
has been reached will prove long term. A global temperature increase of 6 C would be severe, so the IEA
has developed a scenario which would limit the temperature increase to 2 C (International Energy
Association IEA 2009) to minimize the effects.
Waste
2.5%
Agriculture
8%
Industrial
processes
5.5%
CH4 4%
N2O 1%
CO2 95%
Energy* 84%
Fig. 3 Shares of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (Reprinted with permission from (Quadrelli and Peterson
2007))
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Sea level rise will indeed be the most direct impact. Other impacts including those on weather, flooding,
biodiversity, water resources, and diseases are discussed here.
Climate Change: What Will Change?
An overall higher temperature on Earth, depending on the magnitude of the effect and the rate at which it
manifests itself, will change the sea level, local climatic conditions, and the proliferation of animal and
plant species, to name but a few of the most obvious examples. The debate on the actual consequences of
global warming is the most heated part of the climate change discussion.
Apart from changes in the environment, there will be various impacts on human activity. One example
is the threats to tourism revenue in winter ski resorts (Hoffmann et al. 2009) and low-elevation tropical
islands (Becken 2005). Insurance companies will need to devise completely new business models, to cite
just one example of businesses being forced to react to climate change.
Impact of Climate Change Mitigation Actions
The purpose of climate change mitigation is to enact measures to limit the extent of climate change.
Climate change mitigation can make a difference. In the IEA reference scenario (International Energy
Association IEA 2009), the world is headed for a CO
2
concentration in the atmosphere above 1,000 ppm,
whereas that level is limited to 450 ppm in the proposed “mitigation action”scenario. In the first case, the
global temperature increase will be 6 C, whereas it is limited to 2 C in the latter (International Energy
Association IEA 2009).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected that the financial effect of compliance
through trading within the Kyoto commitment period will be limited at between 0.1 % and 1.1 % of
GDP. By comparison, the Stern report estimated that the cost of mitigating climate change would be 1 %
of global GDP and the costs of doing nothing would be 5–20 times higher (IPCC 2010b; Stern 2007).
100
years
1000
years
CO
2
emissions
Sea-level rise due to ice melting:
Several millennia
Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion:
centuries to millennia
Temperature stabilisation:
a few centuries
CO
2
stabilisation:
100 to 300 years
CO
2
emissions peak:
0 to 100 years
Today
Fig. 4 Time scales of climate change effects based on a stabilization of CO
2
concentration levels between 450 and 1,000 ppm
after today’s emissions (Reprinted with permission from (Quadrelli and Peterson 2007))
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Climate Change Adaptation Versus Climate Change Mitigation
Individuals (Grothmann and Patt 2005), municipalities (Laukkonen et al. 2009; van Aalst et al. 2008),
businesses (Hoffmann et al. 2009), and nations (Næss et al. 2005; Stringer et al. 2009) have started to
adapt to the ongoing and expected state of climate change. Climate change adaptation and climate change
mitigation face similar barriers (Hamin and Gurran 2009). To best deal with the situation, there needs to be
a balanced approach between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation (Becken 2005;
Laukkonen et al. 2009; Hamin and Gurran 2009). This will prove to be one of mankind’s largest modern
challenges. Figure 5shows a conceptual framework for developing a climate change adaptation strategy.
Details are presented in this Handbook.
Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaption
Motivation
The struggle in mitigating climate change is not only to create a sustainable environment but also to build
a sustainable economy through renewable energy resources. “Sustainability”has turned into a household
phrase as people become increasingly aware of the severity and scope of future climate change. A survey
of the current literature on climate change suggests that there is an urgent need for a comprehensive
handbook introducing the mitigation of climate change to a broad audience.
The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas and the clearing of forests has been identified as the
major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide
emissions per year generated from stationary and mobile sources is an enormous task that involves
both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs with benefits that will only
Fig. 5 Conceptual framework for developing a climate change adaptation strategy. OUV Outstanding Universal Values (each
World Heritage (WH) site has one or more such OUV. According to UNESCO, WH represent society’s highest conservation
designation (Source: Jim Perry (2015))
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surface decades later. The Stern Report (2007) provided a detailed analysis of the economic impacts of
climate change and the ethical ground of policy responses for mitigation and adaptation.
The decline in the supply of high-quality crude oil has further increased the urgency to identify
alternative energy resources and develop energy conversion technologies that are both environmentally
sound and economically viable. Various routes for converting renewable energies have
emerged –including energy conservation and energy-efficient technologies.
The energy industry currently lacks an infrastructure that can completely replace fossil fuels in the near
future. At the same time, energy consumption in developing countries like China and India is rapidly
increasing as a result of their economic growth. It is generally recognized that the burning of fossil fuels
will continue until an infrastructure for sustainable energy is established. Therefore, there is now a high
demand for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel–based power plants.
Adaptation is a pragmatic approach to deal with the facts of climate change so that life, property, and
income of individuals can be protected.
The pursuit of sustainable energy resources has become a complex issue across the globe. The
Handbook on Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation is a valuable resource for a wide audience
who would like to quickly and comprehensively learn the issues surrounding climate change mitigation.
Why This Book Is Needed
There is a mounting consensus that human behaviors are changing the global climate and that its
consequence, if left unchecked, could be catastrophic. The fourth climate change report by the Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) has provided the most detailed assessment ever on
climate change’s causes, impacts, and solutions. A consortium of experts from 13 US government science
agencies, universities, and research institutions released the report Global Climate Change Impacts in the
United States (2009), which verifies that global warming is primarily human induced and climate changes
are underway in the USA and are only expected to worsen.
From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidis-
ciplinary sciences and technologies. The complexity and scope of these issues warrants a single compre-
hensive survey of a broad array of topics, something which the Handbook on Climate Change Mitigation
and Adaptation achieves by providing readers with all the necessary background information on the
mitigation of climate change. The handbook introduces the fundamental issues of climate change
mitigation in independent chapters rather than directly giving the detailed advanced analysis presented
by the IPCC and others. Therefore, the handbook will be an indispensable companion reference to the
complex analysis presented in the IPCC reports. For instance, while the IPCC reports give large amounts
of data concerning the impacts of different greenhouse gases, they contain little discussion about the
science behind the analysis. Similarly, while the IPCC reports present large amounts of information
concerning the impacts of different alternative energies, the reports rarely discuss the science behind the
technology. There is currently not a single comprehensive source that enables the readers to learn the
science and technology associated with climate change mitigation.
Audience of the Handbook
Since the handbook covers a wide range of topics, it will find broad use as a major reference book in
environmental, industrial, and analytical chemistry. Scientists, engineers, and technical managers in the
energy and environmental fields are expected to be the primary users. They are likely to have an
undergraduate degree in science or engineering with an interest in understanding the science and
technology used in addressing climate change and its mitigation.
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Scope
This multivolume handbook offers a comprehensive collection of information on climate change and how
to minimize its impact. The chapters in this handbook were written by internationally renowned experts
from industry and academia. The purpose of this book is to provide the reader with an authoritative
reference work toward the goal of understanding climate change, its effects, and the available mitigation
and adaptation strategies with which it may be tackled:
•Scientific evidence of climate change and related societal issues
•The impact of climate change
•Energy conservation
•Alternative energy sources
•Advanced combustion techniques
•Advanced technologies
•Education and outreach
This handbook presents information on how climate change is intimately involved with two critical
issues: available energy resources and environmental policy. Readers will learn that these issues may not
be viewed in isolation but are mediated by global economics, politics, and media attention. The focus of
these presentations will be current scientific technological development although societal impacts will not
be neglected.
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