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The Amateur Academic Issue 1
Nanotechnology And Predicting The Future
Nanotechnology Review And Future Predictions
Review of The Current State of Nanotechnology And Making Future Predictions
With A Discussion of Forecasting Methods
Bartmoss St. Clair
December, 2016
Abstract This paper will review the current state of both biological and non-biological nanotechnology and
will predict the near future of this technology using physical and economic forecasting methods. Nanotech-
nology is defined as the precise manipulation of matter under 1µm.
Keywords nanotechnology ·biotechnology ·carbon nanotubes ·semiconductors ·future predictions ·
economics ·future technology ·forecasting methods ·Moore’s law
Bartmoss St. Clair
YouTube: The Amateur Academic
Facebook: facebook.com/theamateuracademic
E-mail: bartmoss.bs@gmail.com
2 Bartmoss St. Clair
Introduction
The concept of nanotechnology goes back as far as Richard Feynman’s 1959 lecture ”There’s Plenty of
Room At The Bottom”, where he outlined the idea of tiny machines being able to manipulate atoms. The
term nanotechnology was originally coined by Norio Taniguchi in 1974 to describe the precise molecular
manufacturing of materials. The future of nanotechnology was first made popular by Eric Drexler. His book
”Engines of Creation”, published in 1986, outlined some of the future possibilities of nanotechnology. Since
this time, evolutionary advancements in biotechnology, material science, and the semiconductor industry are
pushing nanotechnology into the first generation of mass production of both biological and non-biological
nanotechnology.
This paper is a more in-depth companion to The Amateur Academic YouTube lectures which focus on
the properties of present and future nanotechnology. This paper addresses this emerging technology in the
following sections:
1. Nanotechnology Review
Biological Nanotechnology
Carbon Nanotubes
Semiconductors
2. Predictions
Prediction Methods
Prediction Conclusions
Biological Nanotechnology: 8-10 years, 15-25 years
Carbon Nanotubes: 8-10 years, 15-25 years
Semiconductors: 8-10 years, 15-25 years
3. Supplementary
Problems of Carbon Nanotubes In Electronics
History of Carbon Nanotubes
1 Nanotechnology Review
Biological Nanotechnology
Current biological nanotechnology focuses mainly on two areas; protein engineering with bacteria and yeast,
and cell manipulation using viruses for gene therapy.
Fig. 1 E. Coli, CDC
Bacteria and yeast offer important biological engineering
possibilities as their cellular processes can easily be manip-
ulated with standard molecular biological and biochemical
methods, turning them into protein factories. E. coli, which
is about 2µm in length and about 500nm in width, was the
first prokaryotic organism to host foreign DNA through a pro-
cess called transformation [1]. Using molecular cloning tech-
niques, they can be turned into biological nanotechnological
factories which produce and correctly assemble proteins from
foreign organisms. Standard model organisms such as E. coli
or yeast cells, as their eukaryotic counterpart, are ideal for
manufacturing such expression systems for several reasons.
They grow under standard laboratory conditions reasonably
fast, can be easily manipulated, and their basic cellular pro-
cesses are well understood. Currently about 30% of thera-
peutic proteins manufactured are produced by E. coli cells
[2]. Many advancements have been made recently both in di-
rected evolutionary and computational methods of protein
folding which will lead to further future applications in the
The Amateur Academic: Nanotechnology 3
field of protein engineering and production in cell free systems [3].
Fig. 2 HIV rendered by Don J. Myers
Most viruses range in size between 5nm and 300nm. Unlike
yeast and bacteria, they cannot self-replicate. They store their
genetic information in the form of DNA or RNA, are wrapped
in a protein envelope called a capsid, and can even be further
encompassed by a viral envelope. These envelopes are attracted
to the specific cell(s) they need for replication. A good example
of a virus is the HIV virus which is roughly 120nm wide. Its
viral envelope is taken primarily from the host cell’s membrane
containing specific proteins encoded by the viral genome. Those
proteins are then used to attach the viral envelope to a future
host cell for further viral replication to take place. Following
attachment, viruses replicate in cells by injecting their genetic
material, protected by the capsid, into the cell which is then re-
programmed to produce all the components the virus needs for
assembly and release of viral particles that can infect other cells.
Carrying a minimal set of genes that turn living cells into virus
producing factories, they are the ideal candidates to manipulate
cells on a massive scale, while still targeting only specific cell
types. The use of viruses as delivery systems and nanomolecular manipulation machines has promising ap-
plications in gene therapy. Especially severe genetic diseases, chronic diseases, as well as various types of
cancer can potentially be targeted by such an approach. Initially, like many other technologies, gene therapy
was met with high expectations upon its discovery but with few positive results in later trials [4]. However,
recent success re-sparked interest in the possibilities of genetic manipulation in curing diseases which are
otherwise hard to treat [5]. For example, several new therapies have been recently developed to express T-cell
receptors using specific proteins found in the patient’s cancerous cells. Juno is one such company involved
in this CAR-T research. Although they had one of their clinical trials temporarily halted by the FDA, their
results still seem positive overall [6].
Current protein engineering methods could be thought of as zeroth generation biological nanotechnology.
Cells are still necessary to utilize their ribosomes for protein engineering, instead of directly engineering in
vitro ribosomes to function as protein printers, with viruses functioning as non-self replicating biological
nanotechnology delivery systems useful for cell manipulation by its own mechanisms. Zeroth generation bio-
nanotech has its highest potential in medicine. It will lead to new types of custom medicine tailored to
individuals to fight disease, and could even hold the key to treatments to improve general quantity and
quality of life [7].
Carbon Nanotubes
In material science, carbon-based engineered structures such as graphene and carbon nanotubes are very
promising for current and future applications due to their incredible properties. With the purity of the
materials steadily increasing while the price per gram continues to drop, they will find themselves in more
everyday products, including in future electronics.
Fig. 3 Single and multi-walled carbon nanotube
Carbon nanotubes can be single walled (SWCNT),
multi-walled (MWCNT), metallic or semiconduc-
tor, and can come in a variety of structural sym-
metries. The properties of carbon nanotubes de-
pend on their structure and number of walls.
Carbon nanotubes have two incredible proper-
ties which makes them stand out as a mate-
rial.
Tensile Strength
The theoretical tensile strength of carbon nanotubes are unparalleled to almost any other material. The ten-
sile strength of CNTs are dependent on symmetry, temperature, diameter, strain rate, quality, and number
of walls. A zig-zag SWCNT with a tensile strength of 200Gpa is taken as an ideal example [8].
4 Bartmoss St. Clair
Fig. 4 Tensile strength in gigapascals
Given their ideal tensile strength as a material,
nearly all products of today could be improved by
using carbon nanotubes, making them stronger,
more precisely made, and lighter than ever be-
fore [9]. In addition both mass produced prod-
ucts and engineered structures that were previ-
ously impossible will slowly become reality. Su-
per structures such as a space elevator could be
constructed with the aid of CNTs. The tensile
strength of CNTs are more limited by tiny atomic
imperfections introduced by the production pro-
cess than any other factor, which can greatly re-
duce strength [10]. Eliminating such imperfec-
tions in the process of creating CNTs on the
industrial scale is paramount to exploiting their
strength properties to the fullest.
Conductivity
There are two properties to describe how well semiconductors conduct electrons; hole and electron mobility.
The carrier mobility is a description of both for semiconductors. The intrinsic carrier mobility of a carbon
nanotube at room temperature is 100,000cm2
V s [11]. In comparison, the carrier mobility of silicon oxide is
1,400cm2
V s .
CNTs outperform all known semiconductors at room temperature. The advantage CNTs will have over
silicon for chip manufacturing just from their semi-conductive abilities alone makes them worth while to use.
Semiconductors
Semiconductor technology is often overlooked as a nanotechnology, however the semiconductor industry
has been engineering structures measured on the nanometer scale in industrial production since around
1989. Many interesting current and future applications in nano-material science will be directly used by the
semiconductor industry to further improve electronics. In addition many techniques invented and improved
upon in the semiconductor industrial will have uses in other types of nanotechnology engineering.
Fig. 5 DSA 10nm node FinFET, IBM
Most current integrated circuits are categorized as
complementary metal oxide semiconductor based-
technology (CMOS). These CMOS integrated circuits
could soon reach their feature density limits in their
current configuration [12]. The characteristic feature
size is often measured in node length. This is the size
of the smallest single length of the pattern before it is
repeated. As the node length decreases, manufactur-
ing costs sharply increase [13]. This cost of production
is one of the major factors that will ultimately deter-
mine when Moore’s law will come to a halt for current
types of CMOS technology and be replaced with a less
costly road map; either by simply ignoring Moore’s law
and adding other features or extending the ability to
increase feature density through other materials and
methods. Mass produced CMOS integrated circuits are
about to cross the 10nm node length. One difficulty in
manufacturing semiconductors at such node lengths is
gate leakage resulting in channel noise due to quantum
tunneling [14]. As the walls of the transistors get thin-
ner, electrons are more likely to tunnel through, result-
ing in signal noise. One solution is to simply increase
the voltage, however that is not a favorable solution. A
better solution is to use a material with a higher dielectric constant κ, than silicon oxide [15]. This and other
strategies have and can continue to extend Moore’s law to some degree beyond past perceived constraints. In
general, field-effect transistors (FET) production has played an important role to the top-down approach of
nanotechnology engineering, ever since nanoscale node lengths were achieved. The mass production of high-κ,
precise FinFET structures using directed self assembly is advancing the mixture of top-down and bottom-up
nanotechnology engineering [16].
The Amateur Academic: Nanotechnology 5
Once the economic or physical limits of current CMOS scaling have been reached, the age of carbon nan-
otechnology in the mass production of semiconductors could begin, leading to a whole new generation of
semiconductor technology. The first CNT based computer was built in 2013 with 178 CNT-FET transistors,
giving roughly the same performance as the first Intel processor released in 1971 [17], between 2014 and 2015
the initial solutions to the major problems holding back CNT-FETs were solved [18], [19], [20] leading to a
team at UW-Madison producing CNT-FETs on a 120nm node length that could outperform a 90nm node
length p-channel MOSFET [21].
2 Predictions
Prediction Methods
Forecasting future technological and economic developments can be challenging to analyze correctly. Nonethe-
less, there are some helpful methods to find possibility bounds of these future developments. The two main
methods used to make predictions herein are analyzing scalability of a new development and establishing or
confirming physical or economic laws into a certain time frame. For both methods it is assumed that if the
economic incentive is within a certain threshold over current developments, that will warrant an adoption of
one of the most likely new developments to improve upon or replace the current development within a certain
time frame. Thus the risk of the prediction being incorrect outside of a certain tolerance is minimal.
Prediction Methods: Development And Scalability
Once a new technology is developed, it is often very difficult to scale it from the lab to the market. Being
able to cheaply and reliably scale a new development is often the greatest factor in determining possible
success within a time frame. Identifying these scalability obstacles and properly assessing the minimum
attributes necessary to overcoming these obstacles to reach a projected market is key to forecasting the
future of a new development. A very good example of this method can be found in the research on carbon
nanotubes. Given such incredible properties, carbon nanotubes should already be ubiquitous in everyday
consumer products. However these scalability issues made market penetration previously impractical. For a
brief historical overview of carbon nanotubes, see the supplementary section.
Prediction Methods: Physical And Economic Laws
One of the best methods of forecasting future developments is to look for economic or physical laws which
have made very good predictions in the past and then by looking at current developments and near-future
possible improvements or outright replacements of current developments, determining if this law will continue
to hold into a certain projected time frame within a tolerance.
Fig. 6 Moore’s law, Steve Jurvetson
A good example of this is Moore’s law.
Moore’s law states that the cost of tran-
sistors goes down in a predictable manor
as the density of transistors increases at
roughly double every two years. Some es-
timates place the economic growth due
to Moore’s law at 12 trillion dollars, in
the last 20 years alone [22]. In terms of
GDP, Moore’s law has added an extra
point of real GDP growth annually from
1995 until 2011, this represents a 37%
global economic impact. This economic
trend is so valuable to the world economy,
it is unimaginable what would happen if
it simply stopped. Until recently it wasn’t
clear which technological road map would
supersede current CMOS integrated cir-
cuit technology. However due to recent
breakthroughs, it has become more clear
that once silicon hits its limit, it will be
augmented by CNTs, which appears to be
the most ripe technology currently avail-
able for a smooth transition. Because the world’s economy bets so extensively on the continuation of Moore’s
law, this is exactly why these difficulties have been recently overcome. For more on those problems please see
the supplementary section.
6 Bartmoss St. Clair
Prediction Conclusions
The near future will be a remarkable time for technological convergence in many areas such as machine
learning, the internet of things, biotechnology, material science, semiconductors, and 3d printing. The possi-
ble impact these and other technologies will have in the broader definition of nanotechnology will be nearly
unimaginable.
Based on the current state of nanotechnology and the predictive methods outlined here, the conclusions
of the near future of nanotechnology is estimated between the ranges of the next 8 to 10 years and the next
15 to 25 years.
Semiconductors
These prediction methods were applied using Moore’s law which was analyzed in conjunction with current
developments to make future predictions. Moore’s law has been used as a very good prediction of the price per
transistor over several transitions of technological and economic developments. Although certain indicators
such as clock speed, thread performance, and power consumption have flattened out in the last few years
[23], this is projected to be a sign of a developmental transition from a previous generation of technology to
the next.
Semiconductors in 8 to 10 years
Moore’s law was projected to continue specifically by taking into consideration the performance of current
CNT-FETs relative to their node length and the ITER road map.
Between 2018 and 2019 the first NRAM memory utilizing CNTs will become available from Nantero and
Fujitsu.
Between 2020 and 2024 CNT-FETs will begin production. According to IBM researchers a CNT-FET pro-
cessor could begin production by 2020 [24].
It is possible that within 10 years the technological principle of bottom-up engineering along with nano-
material science and top-down engineering could start converging to be able to quickly produce new precise
simple structures, largely due to the semiconductor industry. This could aid in building nano 3d printing
technology.
Semiconductors in 15-25 years
It is likely that a sufficiently complex quantum computer will be built requiring nanotechnology engineering
techniques. This will reduce computational complexity applicable in prime factoring for cryptography using
Shor’s algorithm and inverting functions useful for searching unordered data with Grover’s algorithm. This
development will also allow more complex quantum systems to be simulated beyond current models, which
will have a very large impact on chemistry, material science, and biology.
Fig. 7 Price of CNTs by quality and production capacity of CNTs over time
The Amateur Academic: Nanotechnology 7
Carbon Nanotubes
These forecasting methods were also applied to carbon nanotubes on their price, quality, and production
capacity. The price and purity per gram of SWCNTs from the last fifteen years when bought in bulk (ca. 100g)
and the production capacity of the carbon nanotube industry in the last ten years was taken into consideration
to make projections on pricing, purity, and availability [25]. Note the current price upon publication of this
article of 99.9% pure SWCNTs is about $900 a gram, this purity and even greater purity CNTs should fall in
price at roughly the same trend as lower purity CNTs due to production improvements as well as the increase
in production capacity of higher purity CNTs. The demand from the semiconductor industry for electronic
grade quality CNTs in the near future should spur this growth further. MWCNTs and SWCNTs of lower
purity were also analyzed, yielding similar results.
Carbon Nanotubes in 8 to 10 years
Because semiconductor manufactures will require large amounts of high quality carbon materials, new cheaper
methods of production will become available and due to the further increase in quality and decrease in price,
graphene and CNTs will start showing up in more everyday products. They will probably be used in the
automotive industry, for medical purposes, and could even be used for hydrogen storage to make a future
hydrogen economy more viable. However safety is a very important issue. Depending on the type of CNT,
they could present a health hazard and possible future environmental issues if not properly studied. Thus it
will be important to study health and environmental impacts further [26].
Carbon Nanotubes in 15 to 25 years
Atomic precision manufacturing, as proposed by Eric Drexler should be a technological possibility in some
capacity in the next 15-25 years, partially evolving from nano 3d printing developing in the next 8 to 10
years. The ability for complex mechanical machines to be assembled to within atomic precision will be the
next generation in nanotechnology and 3d printing. This could first be achieved by biological means [27]. But
it is difficult to say whether any industrial applications of such technology will be viable in this time frame.
Large structures, such as a space elevator that are currently impossible, will be theoretically possible with the
production capacity, price, and if the structural quality of CNTs continues to increase without any physical
limits impeding meeting nearly the theoretical strength of CNTs and similar carbon structures in this time
frame.
Biological Nanotechnology
These forecasting methods were applied to biological technology to a limited degree, as there isn’t a specific
physical or economic law for predictions in biological nanotechnology yet. Once developments in synthetic
and molecular biology have sufficiently advanced, especially in modeling these complex systems, a better
prediction model can be developed.
Biological Nanotechnology in 8 to 10 years
Biological nano 3d printing could mature enough in this time frame, allowing for medicine, food and possibly
organs to be 3d printed on the nano-scale, at least in the lab. Polyribosomes are like protein 3D printers
functional on the nanoscale [28], artificial ribosomes have been created [29], it is entirely possible that this
could be a viable form of 3d biological protein-based nanoprinting outside of a cell, and perhaps assembly is
also possible in artificial cells or by some other means of direct self assembly.
Biotech companies using gene therapy such as Juno will get FDA approval for some of their therapies to
treat certain diseases at a much higher success rate than any efforts previously achieved. These successes will
most likely lead to more funding of this and similar techniques. The growth in this sector might be ultimately
limited by outdated or poorly written regulations. The application of biotech in the less regulated consumer
supplement and non-prescription pharmaceutical industry is also not to be underestimated.
Biological Nanotechnology in 15 to 25 years
With increasing complexity of computational modeling becoming possible for biological systems, ever more
complex biological systems will be better appoximated as dynamic informational systems. This can lead to a
much better understanding of biological systems that will further advance biological engineering into a more
scalable process by 3d printing many possible biological systems [27].
Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Klaus Sames and Karen Konrad for the invitation to speak at their
conference on nanotechnology which sparked this review paper and The Amateur Academic YouTube lectures, cheaptubes.com
for providing some of the data on CNT prices, and a very special thanks to Paulina Fischer for proof reading the biological
segments of this review.
YouTube: The Amateur Academic
Facebook: facebook.com/theamateuracademic
8 Bartmoss St. Clair
3 Supplementary
Three Problems of Carbon Nanotube Electronics
(1) Mixture
As previously stated, CNTs can be metallic or semiconductor. When a batch of CNTs are manufactured,
they come mixed together. Besides the difficult challenge to make nearly perfectly symmetrical CNTs and
to make pure batches of SWCNTs, lies the challenge of only manufacturing or separating the semiconductor
variety. This challenge made it very difficult, even in a lab environment, to produce CNT-based electronics.
(2) Resistance
For carbon nanotubes to function as FETs in integrated circuits, they need to be able to connect to other
components. These connections have very high resistance, due to their dimensions.
(3) Alignment
When a batch of CNTs are manufactured, they are typically created in a bulk method where the nanotubes
are aligned in different directions. CNTs can only conduct in one direction, so this random alignment is not
very useful for building electronic devices. CNTs need to be put into the right position and aligned to build
electronic devices.
History of Carbon Nanotubes
The evolution of the discovery of CNTs, as well as the solutions to the above problems and application of
CNTs outlined here make a great study in the development of a technology.
1952
Carbon nanotubes were first discovered by two Soviet
researchers [30] and were first described as 50 nanome-
ter diameter hollow graphite carbon fibers. However this
discovery went almost completely unknown due to the
cold war.
1976
Morinobu Endo discovered the Chemical Vapor Deposi-
tion (CVD) method of creating nanometer scale carbon
fibers [31]. This process is still used today and is called
the Endo process.
1979
Abrahamson produced carbon fibers using a carbon an-
ode in an arc discharge process [32].
1987
Tennent files the first US patent for production of hollow
carbon fibrils [33].
1991
Sumio Iijma is credited with the discovery of carbon nan-
otubes with the paper he published in 1991 where he
described synthesizing CNTs via arc discharge and ana-
lyzed their structure [34].
2013
The first CNT computer was built in 2013 with 178
CNT-FET transistors, obtaining roughly the same per-
formance as the first Intel processor released in 1971 [17].
Between 2014 and 2015
(1) Mixture
The Amateur Academic: Nanotechnology 9
Using an organic compound for etching by a thermal pro-
cess, the metallic SWCNTs are eliminated leaving the
semiconductor SWCNTs [18].
(2) Resistance
IBM developed a solution to the resistance problem by
connecting the SWCNTs by means of p-type end binding
of molybdenum [19].
(3) Alignment
Using a dose-controlled, floating evaporative self-assembly
process, the CNTs could be correctly aligned when de-
posited [20].
2016
A team at the UW-Madison was able to construct CNT
transistors into a 120nm CNT-FET that could outper-
form a comparable 90nm silicon p-channel MOSFET, al-
though the CNT-FET had a larger node length. Based
off of tests, CNT-FETs could perform five times faster,
or use five times less energy than MOSFETs according
to researchers [21].
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