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Erratum to: Jay Wright Forrester (1918–2016): His Contribution to the Concept of Overshoot in Socioeconomic Systems

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Biophys Econ Resour Qual (2016) 1:14
DOI 10.1007/s41247-016-0015-7
ERRATUM
Erratum to: Jay Wright Forrester (1918–2016): His Contribution
totheConcept ofOvershoot inSocioeconomic Systems
UgoBardi1
Published online: 9 December 2016
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016
Erratum to: Biophys Econ Resour Qual (2016)
1:12 DOI10.1007/s41247-016-0014-8
The original version of this article unfortunately contained
a mistake. “Jay Write Forrester” should read as “Jay Wright
Forrester” in the title and throughout the article. The origi-
nal article was corrected.
The online version of the original article can be found under
doi:10.1007/s41247-016-0014-8.
* Ugo Bardi
ugo.bardi@unifi.it
1 Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze, Via della
Lastruccia 3, 50019SestoFiorentino, Fi, Italy
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... But the problem is for how long. The concept of "overshoot" was applied by Forrester in 1971 (Bardi 2016) to social systems. The innovative aspect of this concept is that it takes the future into consideration: if there is enough food for 7.5 billion people today, that doesn't mean that will be true in the future. ...
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Most scenarios for the world’s human population predict continued growth into the 22nd century, while some indicate that it could stabilize or begin to fall before 2100. Almost always, decline is seen as not being faster than the preceding growth. Different scenarios are obtained if we consider the human population as a complex system, subject to the general rules that govern complex systems, in particular their tendency to show rapid changes which – in the case of populations – may take the shape of true collapses (defined here as “Seneca Collapses”). The present survey examines a small number of examples of rapid population collapses in the human and in the animal domains. While not pretending to be exhaustive, the data presented here show that biological populations do show rapid “Seneca-style” collapses. So, it is possible that the same phenomenon could occur for the world’s human population.
... But the problem is for how long. The concept of "overshoot" was applied by Forrester in 1971 (Bardi 2016) to social systems. The innovative aspect of this concept is that it takes the future into consideration: if there is enough food for 7.5 billion people today, that doesn't mean that will be true in the future. ...
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Journal of Population and Sustainability Journal Vol.2 No.2. Papers by: DAVID SAMWAYS - Anthropocentrism – The Origin of Environmental Degradation? UGO BARDI - A Seneca Collapse for the World’s Human Population? DOUGLAS E. BOOTH - Postmaterial Experience Economics, Population, and Environmental Sustainability. WILLIAM N. RYERSON - The Hidden Gem of the Cairo Consensus: Helping to End Population Growth with Entertainment Media. PAUL R. EHRLICH - Book Review: Anthrozoology: Embracing Co-Existence in the Anthropocene by Michael Tobias and Jane Morrison. JOHN P. HOLDREN - A Brief History of “IPAT”.
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