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Retour d’expérience sur la prise de décision et le jeu d’acteurs : le cas du cyclone Lenny dans les Petites Antilles au regard du passé
... Il en est de même pour les répercussions des catastrophes naturelles sur les marchés financiers comme l'a montré l'irruption de Katrina dans un marché pétrolier très tendu. (Sarant et al., 2003). Précisons que les historiens semblent depuis peu s'intéresser aux vulnérabilités sociales et même à la caractérisation de l'endommagement, ce qui aura pour effet d'améliorer les bases de données historiques dont l'élaboration a longtemps été confiée à des non spécialistes des sciences historiques avec toute les erreurs d'interprétation que cela a pu entraîner. ...
Lebanon is characterized by strong but rare earthquakes. Beirut’s important urban density results in a high level of human vulnerability. A questionnaire survey performed on a sample of 176 people allows better understanding of the individual vulnerability of residents facing earthquakes. The survey questions the perceptions and the knowledge about seismic hazards, the behaviors in case of an earthquake, and the protection strategies. The results show a good perception of the seismic threat but dispersed knowledge. The residents know how efficient earthquake-resistant construction is, expect more information but remain skeptical about institutions. Among the variables explaining this, education has a key role, unlike classical factors such as gender, the presence of children, or the lessons drawn from past experience. A synthetic index built from the answers to the questionnaire confirms the role of education.
This chapter establishes the major role of the sense making and situation-understanding process in crisis management, and outlines the importance of the contextualisation of information in this process. As a result of a wider analysis of past crisis-management feedback, we define the term crisis and propose a crisis-management cycle, along with a set of decision support activities. From a system point of view, crisis management functionalities are structured along three crucial steps: information gathering, situation understanding, and decision making. For each step, the processes involved are described and for each one some relevant techniques are proposed to implement the processes. For the information-gathering step, the use of ontology allows the building and structuring of a coherent situation model. The initial overall picture of the situation, obtained by some on-line information extraction and fusion, is then consolidated in the situation understanding step to provide meaningful real-time situation awareness. This provides the essential base to derive the final decision-making step. In the decision phase, the context has a dual impact on the decision-making process; the context first constrains the resolution of the resource allocation problem, but it also contributes to discriminate between several resource allocation solutions. It is thus shown that each step of the crisis management process relies on the availability and quality of the crisis context, and that this in-time contextualisation is required to enhance the overall process of crisis management.
To summarise, this chapter highlights the key role of situation understanding for crisis management and reveals the crucial necessity of in-time contextualisation at each step of the crisis management process.
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