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bayesPop : Probabilistic Population Projections
Abstract and Figures
We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age-and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.
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... The posterior distribution of the world and country-level parameters was approximated by MCMC implemented in R which could be publicly available as bayesLife [79]. ...
Human reproductive, mortality and migration behaviours can often be standardized across countries. However, the universality of population growth laws remains a subject of debate. This study models age-specific population data as a three-dimensional tensor and applies high-dimensional tensor decomposition to uncover macro-level patterns in demographic systems across 200 countries over the past 70 years. The findings reveal that, while disparities in age demographics are widening, most nations follow remarkably similar evolutionary trajectories, differing mainly in the pace of change. A universal transition from the demographic dividend to population ageing is evident, with even labour-abundant regions such as Africa, Asia and South America inevitably facing this demographic shift. By incorporating economic indicators, the study quantitatively demonstrates the coordination between population structure and economic growth, while identifying notable exceptions, such as Gulf states that remain both affluent and youthful, and countries like North Korea, Tunisia, Sri Lanka and Ukraine that are ageing without first achieving significant economic wealth.
... In our study, the BAPC model used a second-order random walk prior, which assumes that period effects evolve gradually over time rather than being driven by random effects [17]. The population prediction model based on the cohort-component method divides the population into cohorts by age and iteratively forecasts the number of individuals in each cohort according to demographic change patterns and the forecast cycle [4,18]. This study took into account the policy direction of China, the current development context of Guangzhou, and insights from previous studies to set the parameters of population change, including three projections scenarios: high, medium, and low population development. ...
Background
As population aging intensifies, it becomes increasingly important to elucidate the casual relationship between aging and changes in population health. Therefore, our study proposed to develop a systematic attribution framework to comprehensively evaluate the health impacts of population aging.
Methods
We used health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) to measure quality of life and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) to quantify the burden of disease for the population of Guangzhou. The HALE and DALY projections were generated using both the Bayesian age-period-cohort models and the population prediction models. Changes in HALE and DALY between 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 were decomposed to isolate the effects of population aging. Three scenarios were analyzed to examine the relative relationship between disease burden and population aging. In Scenarios 1 and 2, the disease burden rates in 2030 were assumed to either remain at 2020 levels or follow historical trends. In Scenario 3, it was assumed that the absolute numbers of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) in 2030 would remain unchanged from the 2020 levels.
Results
Between 2010 and 2020, 56.24% [69.73%] of the increase in male [female, values in brackets] HALE was attributable to the mortality effects in the population aged 60 and over, while − 3.74% [− 9.29%] was attributable to the disability effects. The increase in DALY caused by changes in age structure accounted for 72.01% [46.68%] of the total increase in DALY. From 2020 to 2030, 61.43% [69.05%] of the increase in HALE is projected to result from the mortality effects in the population aged 60 and over, while − 3.88% [4.73%] will be attributable to the disability effects. The increase in DALY due to changes in age structure is expected to account for 102.93% [100.99%] of the total increase in DALY. In Scenario 1, YLL are projected to increase by 45.0% [54.7%], and YLD by 31.8% [33.8%], compared to 2020. In Scenario 2, YLL in 2030 is expected to decrease by − 2.9% [− 1.3%], while YLD will increase by 12.7% [14.7%] compared to 2020. In Scenario 3, the expected YLL rates and YLD rates in 2030 would need to be reduced by 15.3% [15.4%] and 15.4% [15.6%], respectively, compared to 2020.
Conclusions
The disability effects among the elderly population hinder improvements in quality of life, while changes in age structure are the primary driver of disease burden accumulation. To mitigate the excess disease burden caused by population aging, it is essential to achieve a reduction of more than 15% in the disease burden by 2030 compared to 2020. Our proposed attribution framework evaluates the health impacts of population aging across two dimensions: quality of life and disease burden. This framework enables comparisons of these effects over time and across different regions.
... Various population and demographic indicators can be summarized with 80% and 95% prediction intervals. This statistical framework for probabilistic projections and estimations of fertility, mortality and population for all countries has also been embodied in a computer program package named "BayesPop" written in R and publicly available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) (Ševčíková, H., and Raftery, A. E.,2016). ...
Many studies indicate that Total fertility rates (TFR(t)) are negatively correlated with life expectancies at birth (e0(t)). We found that complete random-combinations of TFR(t) and e0(t) would result in about 24% and 22.2% of improbable combinations in probabilistic population projections (PPPs) for developing and developed countries, respectively, namely, high (or low) TFR(t) combined with high (or low) female e0(t). Thus, we propose optimized random-combinations of probabilistically projected TFR(t) and e0(t) for PPPs, and we use different strategies of the optimized randomcombinations across developing and developed countries due to different empirical patterns observed. As illustrative applications, we conducted PPPs for 11 developing countries (Brazil, China, Indonesia, Madagascar, Pakistan, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Viet Nam), and 6 developed countries (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States), using our proposed optimized random-combinations of probabilistically projected TFR(t) and e0(t). We found that optimized random-combinations largely reduce percentages of improbable combinations of TFR(t) and e0(t) and substantially narrow the prediction intervals width compared to complete random-combinations in both developing countries and developed countries. This is important in a real-world practical sense since it would substantially improve the accuracy of PPPs, which are useful for socioeconomic planning. The present study is part of our ongoing research program on probabilistic households and living arrangement projections (PHPs) that builds upon and is consistent with the UNPD PPPs. The PHPs are useful for various studies of healthy aging and sustainable development.
... T he advancements in health care have facilitated, among other changes, an extended life expectancy among the population, 1-4 coupled with a low birth rate. in this way, there have been lower birth rates in latin america and the caribbean, going from 5.5 children per family in the 1960s to 2.05 children per family between 2015 and 2020. 5 various postures, displacements, blows, projections, kicks with lower and upper limbs, and choreographies (i.e., kata, poomsae), as well as exercises specific to the discipline that teach people to fall and prepare for self-defense, 39 facts that together allow their practitioners to reduce the fear and fall risk, as well as improve self-concept and satisfaction with life. 36,37,39 While scientific evidence is compelling regarding the benefits of regular physical activity in older people, [40][41][42] to our knowledge, there is still inconclusive information regarding the impact of combat sports on cognitive function in this population group. ...
Introduction: This systematic review aimed to analyze the available body of published peer-reviewed studies on the effects of combat sports compared with active/passive control on cognitive function and electrophysiological markers of brain activity in older people.
Evidence acquisition: The studies were searched in Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO databases from deadline to June 2023. The PRISMA, TESTEX, RoB, and GRADE scales assessed the evidence's methodological quality and certainty. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (code: CRD42022361695).
Evidence synthesis: After reviewing 3,768 studies, seven combat sports interventions (score ≥ 60% in methodological quality) were selected, composed of 381 older people (63% female), with a mean age of 66 years. In the selected studies, interventions based on judo, karate, and taekwondo were carried out, where it was not possible to verify the benefits of combat sports in cognitive function and electrophysiological markers of brain activity regarding active/passive control groups, although the individual results of the analyzed studies indicate that the practice of combat sports favor selective attention, divided attention, executive function, visual perception, and cognitive processing speed in older people.
Conclusion: The available evidence does not allow a definite recommendation regarding combat sports as an effective cognitive function intervention in older people.
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and combining the results using a standard cohort-component projection method. The 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics were treated differently from others, in that the projections used the highly multistate Spectrum/EPP model, a complex 15-compartment model that was designed for short-term projections of quantities relevant to policy for the epidemic. Here we propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with the existing UN probabilistic projection methodology for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression model on current life expectancy, HIV prevalence and ART coverage. These are then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using a new family of model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics that reproduces the characteristic hump in middle adult mortality. These are then input to the standard cohort-component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar population projections to Spectrum/EPP in the short run, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modeling.
Most population projection models require age-specific information on net migration totals as a key demographic component of population change. Existing methods for predicting future patterns of net migration by age have proven inadequate. The main reason is that methods applied to model net migration are unable to distinguish factors influencing the inflows from those influencing the outflows. In this paper, we develop two flow-difference methods to produce age-specific forecasts of net migration for counties in the Washington State. One uses a deterministic approach; the other uses a Bayesian approach and includes measures of uncertainty. Both methods model the age-specific flows of in-migration and out-migration to derive age-specific net migration. By including models for in-migration and out-migration, even in the absence of data on such flows, the resulting net migration predictions are greatly improved over existing methods that only model the net migration totals. The estimation intervals from the Bayesian flow-difference method are found to be well calibrated, while the other approaches do not yield such intervals. The implications for future county-level population projections in Washington State are shown.
This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic, and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments.
The MortalitySmooth package provides a framework for smoothing count data in both one-and two-dimensional settings. Although general in its purposes, the package is specifically tailored to demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and geneticists who may be interested in using a practical tool for smoothing mortality data over ages and/or years. The total number of deaths over a specified age-and year-interval is assumed to be Poisson-distributed, and P-splines and generalized linear array models are employed as a suitable regression methodology. Extra-Poisson variation can also be accommodated. Structured in an S3 object orientation system, MortalitySmooth has two main functions which fit the data and define two classes of objects: Mort1Dsmooth and Mort2Dsmooth. The methods for these classes (print, summary, plot, predict, and residuals) are also included. These features make it easy for users to extract and manipulate the outputs. In addition, a collection of mortality data is provided. This paper provides an overview of the design, aims, and principles of MortalityS-mooth, as well as strategies for applying it and extending its use.
The UN released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth (e
0) using Bayesian hierarchical models, yielding a large set of future trajectories of TFR and e
0 for all countries and future time periods to 2100, sampled from their joint predictive distribution. Each trajectory was then converted to age-specific mortality and fertility rates, and population was projected using the cohort-component method. This yielded a large set of trajectories of future age- and sex-specific population counts and vital rates for all countries. In this chapter we describe the methodology used for deriving the age-specific mortality and fertility rates in the 2014 PPP, we identify limitations of these methods, and we propose several methodological improvements to overcome them. The methods presented in this chapter are implemented in the publicly available bayesPop R package.
The googleVis package provides an interface between R and the Google Visualisation API to create interactive charts which can be embedded into web pages. The best known of these charts is probably the Motion Chart, popularised by Hans Rosling in his TED talks. With the googleVis package users can easily create web pages with interactive charts based on R data frames and display them either via the local R HTTP help server or within their own sites.
rworldmap is a relatively new package available on CRAN for the mapping and visualisation of global data. The vision is to make the display of global data easier, to facilitate understanding and communication. The initial focus is on data referenced by country or grid due to the frequency of use of such data in global assessments. Tools to link data referenced by country (either name or code) to a map, and then to display the map are provided as are functions to map global gridded data. Country and gridded functions accept the same arguments to specify the nature of categories and colour and how legends are formatted. This package builds on the functionality of existing packages, particularly sp, maptools and fields. Example code is provided to produce maps, to link with the packages classInt, RColorBrewer and ncdf, and to plot examples of publicly available country and gridded data.
We omit Whelpton’s adjustments for underenumeration of children in the census and his discussion of immigration levels, and limit the analysis to his discussion of the non-immigrant white population.
Available online at: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive/Standard/