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Twenty-five years of the spiral of silence: A conceptual review and empirical outlook

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Abstract

Numerous studies have been conducted on the spiral of silence since Noelle-Neumann (1974) formulated the theory a quarter of a century ago. As a whole, these studies draw upon different conceptualizations, employ inconsistent operationalizations, and give short shrift to imintportant macroscopic variables. Such inconsistencies potentially account for substantial prointportions of the variance in spiral of silence effects. This paper examines these three areas in greater detail. First, we review key assumptions and theoretical statements of the spiral of silence. Second, we examine how these conceptual issues translate into operational ones. Finally, we outline areas that have remained largely unexplored over the last 25 years. Specifically, we contend that spiral of silence studies in different cultures have failed to take into account culture-specific variables that may mitigate the imintportance of opinion perceptions as predictors of individual behavior or attitudes. In other words, cross-cultural differences are key factors in predicting speaking-out, the key dependent variable in spiral of silence research. As a result, we call for the return to a more macroscopic focus in spiral of silence research.

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... However, this mechanism was challenged by other scholars, who added other individual mechanisms or even categorically denied that fear of isolation was the reason behind the silence of individuals holding minority views (Griffin, 2006;Matthes et al., 2018). In essence, Noelle-Neumann argues that individuals' inclination to communicate their opinions is a function of their perception or reading of public opinion or the macroclimate given that individual behaviors and attitudes are typically impacted by one's perceptions of what other people think and do (Scheufle & Moy, 2000). ...
... 373). While Noelle-Neumann refers to conceiving public opinion as the macroclimate, critics of the theory argue that the microclimate, or the reference group of family and friends (i.e., closer ties), have an even stronger influence on one's attitudes and behaviors (Scheufle & Moy, 2000). This critique has major relevance to the hypotheses since the referent in the proposed relationships involves a target of age discrimination the paired person knows well. ...
... The second notion of spiral of silence theory relates to ineffectual silence behavior itself. The theory is based on the notion that the expression of opinion (or its withholding) is motivated by perceived support for this opinion in the macro or micro social environment (Scheufle & Moy, 2000). If a person perceives support for an opinion, that person is more likely to express it; conversely, if the opinion is perceived not to be supported now or in the future, the person is more likely to withhold it (Matthes et al., 2018). ...
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This study investigates whether one person's experience of perceived discrimination at work can lead to someone they know exhibiting ineffectual silence in their own job. Data were collected using Study Response, an online panel, from focal employees and their paired participants who know them well (N = 296 pairs). Data were analyzed using moderated hierarchical linear analysis in SPSS 26. It was predicted and found that perceived age discrimination reported by someone an employee knows well is positively associated with that employee's silence at work. Moreover, this relationship is stronger the closer the employee is in age to the person who reported the age discrimination. These findings are consistent with spiral of silence theory, which states that when people feel uncertain about public sentiments and views around them and are unsure of whether they will be supported by others in their own environment, they remain silent. The study shows that silence is contagious across organizations because knowing someone who has experienced age discrimination at work makes the paired person silent in their own job, especially if they are of similar age.
... Thus, the main research objective of this study is to foreground the expressing of opinions about IS by employees and empirically test a proposed explanatory model that accounts for the main mechanisms driving employees to voice their opinions about IS or remain silent. For this purpose, a well-known spiral of silence theory (Noelle-Neumann, 1974, 1991 and its extensions (Bowen and Blackmon, 2003;Matthes et al., 2017;Scheufele and Moy, 2000) are employed, as this is the most known and applied research tradition in investigating factors of expressing opinions on different topics. ...
... This theory delineates willingness to express opinion as a key dependent variable, and a concept that is the most frequently studied concept in the tradition of the spiral of silence research (Matthes et al., 2017). The spiral of silence theory is one of the most extensively tested theories within communication sciences (see Glynn et al., 1997;Matthes et al., 2017;Scheufele and Moy, 2000;Shanahan et al., 2007 for meta-analyses and reviews). It states that an individual's willingness to express an opinion on some topic is mostly determined by social perception mechanisms. ...
... Critical evaluations and extensions of the spiral of silence theory have highlighted numerous predictors of the public expression of opinion (Matthes et al., 2017;Scheufele and Moy, 2000). Among these it is important to consider knowledge as a factor that is especially relevant in the context of IS. ...
Article
Purpose Expressing views on organizational information security (IS) by employees is vital for improving security processes, policies and trainings, while non-communication may conceal the true state of the human factor of IS and lead to security breaches. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of opinion expressing about organizational IS, provide an explanatory model based on the theory of spiral of silence and offer its empirical validation. Design/methodology/approach Data from a web-based survey among the employees of one the universities in the European Union ( n = 504) was analyzed with regression analysis to investigate the proposed hypotheses. Findings The study reveals that employees with positive opinions about IS will be more willing to share their opinions with coworkers and management. However, when employees perceive that their pro-IS opinions are not shared by other coworkers, they will remain silent, which increases the risk of problematic opinions spreading throughout the organization. Research limitations/implications The study highlights the need to focus on the communication perspectives of organizational information security, an area often overlooked in the human factor of information security research. Practical implications The results highlight the need to examine the gap between the dominant climate of opinion about IS in the organization and the display of compliant IS behaviors in order to strengthen IS endeavors. Organizations are encouraged to facilitate open dialogue about IS processes, policies and training and implement mechanisms for considering employees’ feedback in order to improve the organization’s IS. Originality/value The study contributes to a growing body of research that moves beyond viewing employees merely as subjects of compliance, recognizing instead their agency in IS issues that can enhance organizational resilience. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to apply the spiral of silence theory in the IS field, thereby helping to overcome the lack of communication science perspectives in organizational IS research.
... The spiral of silence theory (Noelle-Neumann, 1993) posits that individuals' willingness to express their opinions depends on how they perceive public opinion and the extent to which their own opinions align with the perceived public opinion. The theory assumes that individuals fear that deviating from social consensus will result in isolation from society (Scheufle & Moy, 2000). Because of this fear of social isolation, individuals consistently monitor public opinions, and they are inclined to publicly express their opinions when they perceive that their viewpoint is dominant or on the rise; conversely, they tend to remain silent when they perceive that their opinion is in the minority (Scheufle & Moy, 2000). ...
... The theory assumes that individuals fear that deviating from social consensus will result in isolation from society (Scheufle & Moy, 2000). Because of this fear of social isolation, individuals consistently monitor public opinions, and they are inclined to publicly express their opinions when they perceive that their viewpoint is dominant or on the rise; conversely, they tend to remain silent when they perceive that their opinion is in the minority (Scheufle & Moy, 2000). ...
Article
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Online comments have become an essential component of online media consumption. A meta-analysis was conducted to understand how online comment valence affects message perception, issue-relevant beliefs and attitudes, issue-relevant behaviors and behavioral intentions, communication behaviors and intentions, and emotions. Comment valence is defined as the distinction between positive comments, which align with, support, or favor the opinions expressed in the original message, and negative comments, which oppose, criticize, or disagree with the opinions expressed in the original message. After a comprehensive search and systematic screening and coding of existing studies, we identified 44 studies that are eligible to be included in the meta-analysis. We found that positive (vs. negative) comments led to significantly more positive evaluations of original messages (r = .22), stronger beliefs and attitudes that align with the positive comments (r = .29), higher likelihood to engage in behaviors that align with the positive comments (r = .09), higher likelihood to express opinions that align with the positive comments (r = .26), and more positive emotions (r = .16). Moreover, the number of comments, whether comment valence was mixed or not, and whether the original message was news or non-news moderated the effects of online comment valence on several outcomes. The findings suggest integrating these outcomes and moderators to develop a media effect theory and guide media practices in light of comment valence effects.
... At the same time, a 'spiral of silence' can suppress public disclosure of popular disillusion or discontent, even when this has not been actively discouraged, suppressed or outlawed [3]. Indeed, self-censorship alone can subvert any measures autocracies might take to gauge or demonstrate public opinion [4], including continuing to hold ostensibly democratic elections and plebiscites (as Nazi Germany did up until 1938) -rendering the results of these polls inherently untrustworthy or, quite literally, incredible. ...
... (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 12 November 2024 doi:10.20944/preprints202411.0711.v23 ...
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At a time when George Gallup described public opinion polls as “just out of their swaddling clothes”, Geoffrey Pyke’s 1939 attempt to gauge what ordinary Germans thought about the Nazis – and the prospect of war with Britain, France and Russia – was unprecedented. Without the support or backing of officials in Whitehall, Pyke concocted an ambitious yet breathtakingly simple scheme to dissuade Germany’s leaders that they lacked the popular support required for war. Pyke set out to recruit German-speaking ‘conversationalists’ who would be willing to visit Germany and record the views of ordinary Germans whilst posing as tourists. Paying close attention to the technical innovations pioneered by Gallup’s American Institute of Public Opinion, Pyke carefully crafted the wording and sequence of the questions his pollsters would ask; and gave considerable thought to the range of respondents required to ensure their views would accurately reflect those of the population as a whole. Recognising that evidencing his survey’s validity would be critical to its utility in the subsequent influence operations he had in mind, Pyke even arranged for five of his ‘conversationalists’ to operate independently in the same city for several days (and unbeknownst to one another) to demonstrate the consistency of their findings. Meanwhile, the suitability of potential pollsters was rigorously assessed by a recent German refugee (Rolfe Rünkel) – who ensured that successful applicants could accurately recall not only the questions (which they were required to slip into the conversations they struck up with ordinary Germans), but also the answers to these questions (which could only to be written down afterwards, and in private). Instructed by Pyke to conform to the popular and affectionate German caricature of the eccentric and comfort-obsessed English tourist abroad, Pyke’s amateur pollsters had an unforeseen advantage over their professional counterparts. The necessity of concealing their true identities and intentions gave them licence to contrive a level of rapport that substantially attenuated any recourse to response bias or the vagaries of self-censorship. Indeed, when sharing their views and opinions with these amiable foreigners, it is clear that Pyke’s instructions had a disarming effect on a good many of the Germans they approached – making them much more willing to share what they actually thought. Although Pyke’s 10 amateur pollsters managed to complete 232 interviews in 14 cities during their first 2 weeks in Germany, the success of the scheme was overtaken by events when – on 21st August 1939 – they witnessed first-hand the dramatic shift in public opinion that took place when news leaked of the impending Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Forced to abandon any further survey work, they were lucky to escape home before the outbreak of war 10 days later. Drawing on the detailed accounts provided by David Lampe (1959) and Henry Hemming (2014) – and on archive material held by the University of Cambridge – this presentation assesses the success of Pyke’s unique experiment in covert sentiment analysis and what this might tell us about: the prospects for peace in 1939; and how we might strengthen contemporary approaches to influence operations.
... The silence of the employees is also related to fear due to the possible reactions that may come as a result of speaking their minds (Premeaux & Bedeian, 2003). Likewise, Scheufele and Moy (2000) point out that employees constantly try to control themselves in their environment because of the danger or fear of isolation. They express their opinions only when they find other people who share the same opinions (Scheufele & Moy, 2000). ...
... Likewise, Scheufele and Moy (2000) point out that employees constantly try to control themselves in their environment because of the danger or fear of isolation. They express their opinions only when they find other people who share the same opinions (Scheufele & Moy, 2000). ...
Article
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This study aims to identify why and under what circumstances employees prefer to remain silent. The qualitative method was used to understand the reasons for the employees' silence, for which in-depth interviews were conducted. In this paper, 20 employees of the private sector in Kosovo were interviewed. Of the employees who were interviewed, seven of them are from the production sector, five from the service sector, three from the private education sector, and five from the trade sector. The interview data determined codes and categories, which were analyzed using the content analysis method. The data provided by the interview participants were analyzed through the MAXQDA 2020 qualitative data analysis program. Three categories with 21 codes mentioned in 263 cases were identified during data processing. The results show that the employees' fear of the managers and the management's approach is among the main reasons for the employees' silence. In addition, other reasons impacting employees' silence have been identified and presented in this paper.
... Spiral of silence theory contains several key hypotheses [9]. First, out of fear of isolation, people use quasistatistical organs to monitor the distribution of their climate of opinion to see if it is in line with public opinion [3]. ...
... First, out of fear of isolation, people use quasistatistical organs to monitor the distribution of their climate of opinion to see if it is in line with public opinion [3]. Second, people sometimes misunderstand and regard their views as a consensus of public opinion, which affects their willingness to express "minority" opinions out loud [9]. This process uses the opinions of a few people as the main opinion, resulting in a silent majority. ...
Article
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Social networking sites such as Facebook have become the leading social platforms. However, publicly expressing opinions on Facebook may mean that a person has problems with isolation and is observing his or her environment. People who perceive their opinions as belonging to the majority will publicly express them. On the contrary, people who perceive their opinions as belonging to the minority will remain silent, which will lead to a spiral of silence theory. The purpose of this study is to explore the phenomenon of silent spirals in social and psychological capital networks by using social network users in Taiwan as the research subject. Structural equation modeling is used to verify the causal relationship between the research hypotheses and variables. Results show that there are significant differences in the mediation effect. Finally, this study presents conclusions and research directions.
... Silence becomes thus a crucial element to explain the observed opinion dynamic patterns. While similar mechanisms have already been noticed and discussed in literature [11,64,65], their existence in onlin social media has been subject of debate [64,[66][67][68]. Observing spiralling processes and their effects in such environments is difficult, mainly because only the opinions of those who publicly express themselves are evident there. ...
... Silence becomes thus a crucial element to explain the observed opinion dynamic patterns. While similar mechanisms have already been noticed and discussed in literature [11,64,65], their existence in onlin social media has been subject of debate [64,[66][67][68]. Observing spiralling processes and their effects in such environments is difficult, mainly because only the opinions of those who publicly express themselves are evident there. ...
Article
Full-text available
In the last decades an increasing deal of research has investigated the phenomenon of opinion misperception in human communities and, more recently, in social media. Opinion misperception is the wrong evaluation by community’s members of the real distribution of opinions or beliefs about a given topic. In this work we explore the mechanisms giving rise to opinion misperception in social media groups, which are larger than physical ones and have peculiar topological features. By means of numerical simulations, we suggest that the structure of connections of such communities plays indeed a role in distorting the perception of the agents about others’ beliefs, but it is essentially an indirect effect. Moreover, we show that the main ingredient that generates misperception is a spiral of silence induced by few, well connected and charismatic agents, which rapidly drives the majority of individuals to stay silent without disclosing their true belief, leading minoritarian opinions to appear more widespread throughout the community.
... According to Scheufele and Moy's (2000) study, various studies on the spiral of silence have yet to consider specific cultural and social variables that can predict behavior or attitudes. In other words, they claim that cross-cultural differences are central factors in the existence of the spiral of silence. ...
... In the case of mental health support groups, for instance, the vast majority of members refrained from divulging personal information beyond the confines of the platform, owing to the stigmatization and lack of acceptance of such topics in Israeli society. This aligns with the work of Scheufele and Moy (2000), who contend that empirical studies on the spiral of silence theory often fail to account for cultural and social variables. ...
Article
Purpose This research aims to examine the ways and the extent to which social media platforms undermine the spiral of silence by facilitating the expression of diverse voices and opinions. Design/methodology/approach Semi-structured interviews were conducted with members of closed groups focused on non-consensus topics. Findings Facebook closed group members perceive the media as isolating and portraying their issues negatively. However, these groups offer support, inclusion and non-judgmental opinion-sharing space. Consequently, members feel more comfortable discussing and sharing the topic outside the group, indicating a slight trend of challenging and undermining the spiral of silence through social networks. Research limitations/implications The study faces challenges in comparing diverse groups due to unique circumstances, complex needs and societal attitudes. Each group stands alone, potentially yielding slightly different findings. Practical implications Social media challenges and undermines the spiral of silence, as these opinions are shared with the wider society and can even find their way back to mainstream media outlets. Thus, social media platforms play a significant role in disrupting the spiral of silence and facilitating the expression of diverse opinions that may have been previously suppressed. Social implications This research emphasizes the critical role of social media in shaping public opinion and its interaction with the broader media landscape, illustrating a circular process where social media disrupts the spiral of silence by facilitating the expression of previously suppressed diverse opinions, which can then potentially influence mainstream media. Originality/value This study adds value by exploring how social media platforms can challenge and undermine the spiral of silence, enabling the expression of diverse, marginalized and underrepresented opinions in society. It highlights the role of social media in shaping public opinion and discourse, challenging the dominance of traditional media. Its originality emanates from its revelations concerning the legitimization of conversational topics, which may consequently affect media agendas.
... If the gap between the voter's opinion and the majority opinion is large, the voter will be more intent on expressing his vote silently or not to vote. It means that for the voter representing the minority, the fear of isolation creates an intention to remain politically silent (the silent vote) or not to vote (Liu et al., 2017;Gearhart & Zhang, 2014;Scheufele & Moy, 2000, Noelle-Neumann, 1974. ...
... (e.g., Baptister, S. 2022;Akoja, 2022;d'Haenens, 2022;Kartinawati & Purwasito, 2021;Zamroni et al., 2021;Lokumannage (b), 2020;Ichlas, 2020;Fahadi, 2019;Martin & McCrain, 2019;Kazibwe, 2018;Pradita et al., 2018;Abubakre, 2017;Mordi & Ogbu, 2017;Nwofe, 2016;Maheshwari, 2015, Chukwu, 2015Dunaway & Lawrence, 2015;Simiyu, 2014;Dunaway, 2013;Eshbaugh-Soha, 2010;Eshbaugh-Soha & Peake, 2010;Dunaway, 2008;Lo et al., 1998). Also, various empirical studies have been conducted to identify the effect of public opinion on voters in election season with the use of the spiral of silence theory (e.g., Roberts, 2022;Yun et al., 2022;Kushin et al., 2019;Matthes, et al., 2018;Scheufele & Moy, 2000). These studies defined that public opinion has served as a dependent variable in one point and as an independent variable in another point. ...
Research
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The election is a social process that establishes representative democracy. To accurately represent public opinion, the election process must be held on a level playing field. The role of the news media in creating a level playing field is critical. It is essential that the news media behave unbiasedly, objectively, and neutrally during the election season. The ownership of the news media is a crucial factor in that unbiased role. There have been numerous empirical studies to identify how election coverage varies with news media ownership patterns. These studies have confirmed that news media owners affect public opinion by transferring the news media agenda onto the public agenda. However, empirical studies that examine the effect of news media ownership patterns on public opinion toward voter intention are rare. The primary goal of this study is to fill this research gap in the Sri Lankan context. This study was conducted using a quantitative survey method. Data was collected through a well-organized questionnaire that tested face validity and content validity. In the data analysis, it was found that news media ownership patterns do not have a direct effect on voter intention. However, the effect of news media ownership patterns on public opinion is strong. This study revealed that public opinion mediates the relationship between ownership patterns and voter intention. The data analysis revealed that it is a fully mediated effect. In light of this, it can be said that public opinion is a mediating variable. These findings once again confirm the agenda-setting theory, Shoemaker and Reese's ownership theory, and the spiral of silence theory. Finally, identifying public opinion as a mediating variable in this study will open a new window for future public opinion studies.
... Silence becomes thus a crucial element to explain the observed opinion dynamic patterns. While similar mechanisms have already been noticed and discussed in literature [12,59,60], their existence in social media environments has been subject of debate [59,61,62,63]. Observing spiralling processes and their effects in social media is difficult, mainly because only the views of those who express their opinions are evident there. ...
... Silence becomes thus a crucial element to explain the observed opinion dynamic patterns. While similar mechanisms have already been noticed and discussed in literature [12,59,60], their existence in social media environments has been subject of debate [59,61,62,63]. Observing spiralling processes and their effects in social media is difficult, mainly because only the views of those who express their opinions are evident there. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
In the last decades an increasing deal of research has investigated the phenomenon of opinion misperception in human communities and, more recently, in social media. Opinion misperception is the wrong evaluation by community's members of the real distribution of opinions or beliefs about a given topic. In this work we explore the mechanisms giving rise to opinion misperception in social media groups, which are larger than physical ones and have peculiar topological features. By means of numerical simulations, we suggest that the structure of connections of such communities plays indeed a role in distorting the perception of the agents about others' beliefs, but it is essentially an indirect effect. Moreover, we show that the main ingredient that generates the misperception is a spiral of silence induced by few, well connected and charismatic agents, which rapidly drives the majority of individuals to stay silent without disclosing their true belief, leading minoritarian opinions to appear more widespread throughout the community.
... Self-silencing leads to less of the opinion being expressed in the group, making the viewpoint appear even further minoritized, producing a downward spiral where people self-silence even further. Since being proposed, the spiral of silence has been empirically studied in face-to-face communication across multiple issue types and participant populations (Scheufle and Moy 2000;Matthes, Knoll, and von Sikorski 2018). As online communication forms like social media continue to proliferate, it raises the question how the spiral of silence might affect user behavior in this setting. ...
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We often treat social media as a lens onto society. How might that lens be distorting the actual popularity of political and social viewpoints? In this paper, we examine the difference between the viewpoints publicly posted in a community and the privately surveyed viewpoints of community members, contributing a measurement of a theory called the "spiral of silence." This theory observes that people are less likely to voice their opinion when they believe they are in the minority--leading to a spiral where minority opinions are less likely to be shared, so they appear even further in the minority, and become even less likely to be shared. We surveyed active members of politically oriented Reddit communities to gauge their willingness to post on contentious topics, yielding 627 responses from 108 participants about 11 topics and 33 subreddits. We find that 72.6% of participants who perceive themselves in the minority remain silent, and are only half as likely to post their viewpoint compared to those who believe their opinion is in the majority. Communities perceived as being more inclusive reduce the magnitude of this effect. These results emphasize how far out of step the opinions we see online may be with the population they purport to represent.
... The spiral of silence theory is widely regarded as a comprehensive framework for analyzing public opinion [4]. Neumann identifies two principal conceptualisations of public opinion. ...
Article
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The advent of the digital age and the subsequent rise of the Internet have greatly impacted the relationship between online opinion and user discourse in the early evolution of traditional media. However, it has introduced new challenges, namely the emergence of social bots that generate and disseminate information that aims to influence public opinion. Thus, the paper attempts to decipher whether online public opinion, user discourse, and the positions of social robots in the production and dissemination of information will reinforce or change each other. Through the adoption of questionnaire survey method, 414 Internet users who understand and have contacted the human-computer account on Douyin platform as the survey object, online questionnaire survey, it screens out 414 effective questionnaires for data analysis. Besides, the samples are analyzed for reliability, correlation, exploratory factor analysis (validity analysis), linear regression analysis (mediated effects analysis), and analysis of variance using the SPSS (Statistical Product Service Solutions) tool, and the data are obtained. At the same time, combined with text analysis in qualitative research, semiotic analysis is mainly used to analyze how sample data conveys the relationship between online public opinion, user discourse, and social robots. On this basis, the results indicate that all five hypotheses presented in the paper are verified, and two new relationships are explored.
... There is one research tradition in which climates of silence have been studied fora long by asking people how likely it is that they would reveal a given point of view to a stranger, met by chance on a train, for example: the work initiated by Noelle-Neuman (1974)'s spiral of silence theory (for review, see Ho 2015). This theory and work have been criticized, however, for failing to anchor the study of climates of silence in local, psychologically relevant, reference communities (Elcheroth, Doise, and Reicher 2011;Scheufle and Moy 2000). In addition, the talkingto-a-stranger paradigm appears to conflate into one measure personality factors, like individual differences in fearing isolation or apprehending communication (Neuwirth, Frederick, and Mayo 2007), and people's reading of the relevant communication climate. ...
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In conflict‐affected societies, collective victimization can undermine social cohesion or foster narrow ingroup bonding and parochialism. We examine whether the possibility to know and freely communicate about diverse conflict experiences, which go beyond collective (ingroup) victimhood, can serve as a resource for community cohesion (i.e., community attachment and efficacy). Nationally representative surveys from two conflict‐ridden societies, Sri Lanka ( N = 1188) and the Occupied Palestinian Territory ( N = 1000), reveal that individuals with broader knowledge of diverse conflict experiences exhibit stronger attachment to their local communities and perceive them as more efficacious, but only when they believe knowledge of these experiences can be shared within their community. Conversely, diverse conflict knowledge is related to a lower sense of community cohesion when individuals perceive diverse conflict experiences as unspeakable in their community. The findings contribute to our understanding of the potential effects of violent conflict on social cohesion and highlight the importance of openness to discuss the full range of conflict experiences.
... The spiral of silence theory has been widely used in public opinion research and has helped explain media aspects of influences (McDonald et al. 2001). The scientific value of the spiral of silence theory lies in its important contributions to interpreting individual behaviour and attitudes arising from media consumption (Scheufele and Moy 2000). Furthermore, it helps understand how people gather and interpret information on the issues raised and how communication and mass media influence the formation of public opinion (Noelle-Neumann 1991). ...
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This study examines the impact of the new digital communication environment on the spiral of silence mechanisms in the context of the current Yemeni crisis. The research focuses on three controversial topics related to the crisis: the role of the Arab coalition in Yemen, the legitimacy of President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi and the call to disengage the Yemeni southern governorates from the unified Yemeni state. The sample for this study consisted of 438 respondents, selected using the snowball sampling method. The findings suggest that despite the changes in communication conditions, the mechanisms of the spiral of silence remain effective in the new digital communication environment. The study found that respondents emphasized their awareness of the severity of controversy, disagreement, hostile reactions from the other side and their fears of the threat of social isolation which affected their desire to express their opinions towards the three political issues. The results demonstrated that the respondents with the highest fear of isolation tended to exclude expressing an opinion in the new communication environment or prefer adhering to neutrality. The results confirmed that what impedes the expression of opinion in conflict environments is not the inability of individuals to access media and publishing platforms but rather the same psychological and social mechanisms of the spiral of silence – as identified by Neumann. The study proposes a new model of the spiral of silence theory that incorporates the transformations of the communication field and the inhibitors of opinion expression on social media.
... Reacting to the frustrating situation described above, political communication scholars shifted away from the classical persuasion studies and produced new theories and perspectives. While the field of study of cognitive effects of the media blossomed (see Chapter 2), other innovations took place, the most relevant being the uses and gratifications theory, focusing on why people expose themselves to the media and why their motivations matter (Blumler and Katz, 1974), the spiral of silence approach focusing on the media as provider of information about which opinions are appropriate to share (Noelle-Neuman, 1974; see also Scheufele and Moy, 2000), and an interesting debate between the advocates of media malaise vs. mo-bilization, socialization or learning effects. In the next pages, these three approaches are discussed. ...
... The SoS is an interesting case study to examine the utility of the proposed typology, not only because of its popularity (Walter, Cody, & Ball-Rokeach, 2018) and the historical role it played in the maturation of the media effects discipline but also because of criticism about its applicability and generalizability (Scheufele & Moy, 2000). The theory has an explicit emphasis on the power of media, as it is based on the assumption that "mass media are part of the system which the individual uses to gain information about the environment" (Noelle-Neumann, 1974, p. 50), and it posits processes of influence that involve both mediated and interpersonal communication. ...
Article
A typology rooted in the field's common object-a communicative act-and the notion that communication begets more communication is presented and evaluated. The organizing power of the typology is illustrated by showing key differences and similarities among existing theories in terms of their communicative dynamics concerning information getting and information giving. The typology's ability to systematically expand existing theories and increase the theoretical coverage of the field is exemplified by a focus on the spiral of silence and the transportation-imagery model. This article concludes with a discussion of limitations, caveats, and an agenda for theoretical advancement arising from the typology.
... These could be some advantageous behaviours, like cooperation [102,103,163,176,179], but also behaviours detrimental for individuals' material well-being or privately disapproved of [112,139,[154][155][156]. Mechanisms contributing to the stability of such norms include preference falsification ( publicly expressing preferences disagreeing with their true private ones [133]), pluralistic ignorance (mistakenly believing that one's private beliefs are in the minority even if they are widely shared [9][10][11]), false enforcement (enforcing a norm privately disapproved of, [154]) or the 'spirals of silence' (hesitating to voice dissenting opinions or divergent behaviour [186]). ...
Article
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We review theoretical approaches for modelling the origin, persistence and change of social norms. The most comprehensive models describe the coevolution of behaviours, personal, descriptive and injunctive norms while considering influences of various authorities and accounting for cognitive processes and between-individual differences. Models show that social norms can improve individual and group well-being. Under some conditions though, deleterious norms can persist in the population through conformity, preference falsification and pluralistic ignorance. Polarization in behaviour and beliefs can be maintained, even when societal advantages of particular behaviours or belief systems over alternatives are clear. Attempts to change social norms can backfire through cognitive processes including cognitive dissonance and psychological reactance. Under some conditions social norms can change rapidly via tipping point dynamics. Norms can be highly susceptible to manipulation, and network structure influences their propagation. Future models should incorporate network structure more thoroughly, explicitly study online norms, consider cultural variations and be applied to real-world processes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Social norm change: drivers and consequences’.
... Entre eles, o grupo que mais consistentemente exibe relutância nas amostras da CES são alunos que expressam afinidade política com o Partido Republicano. Considerando que a amostra coletada pela CES sugere que alunos de direita são minoritários nos campi americano -e pesquisas anteriores também apontam para a predominância da esquerda entre o corpo docente e administrativo da educação superior americana (AL-GHARBI, 2018; LANGBERT, 2018; WRIGHT; MOTZ; NIXON, 2019; ABRAMS; KHALID, 2020) -, tal resultado é consistente com a teoria da "espiral do silêncio", que prevê maiores índices de autocensura entre indivíduos que se entendem como portadores de opiniões minoritárias (SCHEUFLE; MOY, 2000). Embora no Brasil seja comum a percepção de que a comunidade acadêmica tende à esquerda no espectro político, ainda carecemos de estudos acadêmicos sistemáticos voltados ao tema (FRANCO, 2020). ...
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The present study applied an instrument for mapping indicators of self-censorship and polarization in a sample of 357 university students. We asked how comfortable or reluctant respondents are in participating in discussions on a variety of sensitive topics, what consequences respondents who self-censor are most concerned about, and other questions related to their experience on campus. We concluded that, among the topics raised, political discussions generate the most conflict and self-censorship among students and that those who self-censor are mostly concerned with social reprisals. We also evaluated which elements of the respondents’ profile influence their perceptions of these problems. Finally, we discussed limitations of the study and pointed out directions for future research and interventions based on these results. Keywords Self-censorship; Polarization; Higher education; Freedom of speech; Political tolerance
... Firstly, the issue being discussed publicly should be controversial and possess a moral component. Secondly, individuals must perceive the likelihood of social isolation as a consequence of expressing an opinion that contradicts the perceived majority viewpoint (Gearhart & Zhang, 2018;Matthes & Hayes, 2014;Scheufle & Moy, 2000). As a result, the theory has been applied to various J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f controversial topics and contexts, such as gay bullying, women serving as judges (Gearhart & Zhang, 2013;Tso et al., 2022;Al-Kandari et al., 2021). ...
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This study examines how perceived differences in the affordances of social media platforms influence users' willingness to express opinions on a controversial issue, viz., systemic racism. Drawing on a U.S. nationally representative survey, our analysis suggests that fear of social isolation has a significant effect on Facebook but not on Twitter. Moreover, three platform affordances-network association, anonymity, and social presence-moderate the relationship on Facebook, while anonymity has a direct positive effect on Twitter. We argue that increased perceived network association and social presence and reduced perceived anonymity on Facebook result in higher levels of self-censorship. Twitter's interest-based ties, on the other hand, enhance anonymity and, with it, the willingness to speak on controversial topics.
... Comments have been highlighted by many scholars as an act of participation to realize deliberative democracy in the sense of the expansion of the public realm proposed by Habermas [16]. There is also a research result that comments serve as clues to identify public opinion trends [17]. Comments are known to affect attitudes, perceptions, and behaviors toward news [18]. ...
... Thus, the results of this study further support the spiral of silence hypothesis. Scheufele and Moy (2000) advocated for more cross-national SOS research two decades ago. This project furthers our knowledge of SOS across political borders. ...
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The COVID-19 pandemic has uncovered prejudices, systemic inequities and critical feelings about governmental institutions around the globe. Since the start of the pandemic, the 12 nations that make up South America have had more than 67 million cases and 1.3 million fatalities. Public trust in and willingness to speak out about government responses to COVID-19 in each nation have differed vastly. Using spiral of silence, this study ( n = 1248) explored support for governmental COVID-19 response and willingness to speak out about that response in four South American nations: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru. Results revealed Chileans are more likely to speak out on government response to COVID-19 than other South American participants. In addition, climate of opinion and support for government response positively predict willingness to speak. These results further our international and cross-cultural understanding of spiral of silence.
... A priori judgments about which voices and arguments to listen to depend on source cues that indicate the degree to which any given message or interpersonal exchange is likely to be consistent with our pre-existing beliefs and values. We know from decades of research on the Spiral of Silence, for instance, that one's willingness to speak out in hostile opinion environments is shaped by (often incorrect) judgments about how likely people will be to agree with us (Scheufele et al., 2001; see also Glynn et al., 1997 andScheufele &Moy, 2000). Building on these broader conceptual foundations, our working hypothesis was that news media currently tend to exacerbate human tendencies to avoid listening to potentially contradictory voices by providing a rather suboptimal choice architecture (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008). ...
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Recent theorizing on deliberative democracy has put political listening at the core of meaningful democratic deliberation. In the present experiment (N = 827), we investigated whether news media can improve diverse political listening in the United States via a reduction in party cue salience. Although Republican (Democratic) participants showed a strong preference for listening to speeches given by Republican (Democratic) politicians when party cues were highly salient, this bias in selective political listening was reduced or even absent when news items provided no or only low-salience cues. Conditional process analysis indicated that (automatically activated) implicit and (overtly expressed) explicit party attitudes mediated this effect. There are important implications: Current journalism practices tend to exacerbate tribal us-vs-them thinking by emphasizing partisan cues, nudging citizens toward not listening to political ideas from the other political camp. A more helpful news-choice architecture tones down partisan language, nudging citizens toward more diverse political listening.
... While the definition of public opinion is widely understood as an aggregate of individual opinions (Lippmann, 1922), some believe public opinion should be viewed as the outcome of individuals conversing and deliberating, which has led to the development of deliberative polling (Fishkin, 1995). Others contend public opinion can also be conceived as a form of control (Scheufle & Moy, 2000). Others suggest there are many publics and, in the majority of cases when public opinion is reported, it is the opinion of a specific public (Anstead & O'Loughlin, 2015;Gillespie, 2014). ...
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Journalists increasingly use social media data to infer and report public opinion by quoting social media posts, identifying trending topics, and reporting general sentiment. In contrast to traditional approaches of inferring public opinion, citizens are often unaware of how their publicly available social media data is being used and how public opinion is constructed using social media analytics. In this exploratory study based on a census-weighted online survey of Canadian adults (N=1,500), we examine citizens’ perceptions of journalistic use of social media data. We demonstrate that: (1) people find it more appropriate for journalists to use aggregate social media data rather than personally identifiable data; (2) people who use more social media are more likely to positively perceive journalistic use of social media data to infer public opinion; and (3) the frequency of political posting is positively related to acceptance of this emerging journalistic practice, which suggests some citizens want to be heard publicly on social media while others do not. We provide recommendations for journalists on the ethical use of social media data and social media platforms on opt-in functionality.
... While the definition of public opinion is widely understood as an aggregate of individual opinions (Lippmann, 1922), some believe public opinion should be viewed as the outcome of individuals conversing and deliberating, which has led to the development of deliberative polling (Fishkin, 1995). Others contend public opinion can also be conceived as a form of control (Scheufle & Moy, 2000). Others suggest there are many publics and, in the majority of cases when public opinion is reported, it is the opinion of a specific public (Anstead & O'Loughlin, 2015;Gillespie, 2014). ...
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Journalists increasingly use social media data to infer and report public opinion by quoting social media posts, identifying trending topics, and reporting general sentiment. In contrast to traditional approaches of inferring public opinion, citizens are often unaware of how their publicly available social media data is being used and how public opinion is constructed using social media analytics. In this exploratory study based on a census-weighted online survey of Canadian adults (N=1,500), we examine citizens’ perceptions of journalistic use of social media data. We demonstrate that: (1) people find it more appropriate for journalists to use aggregate social media data rather than personally identifiable data; (2) people who use more social media are more likely to positively perceive journalistic use of social media data to infer public opinion; and (3) the frequency of political posting is positively related to acceptance of this emerging journalistic practice, which suggests some citizens want to be heard publicly on social media while others do not. We provide recommendations for journalists on the ethical use of social media data and social media platforms on opt-in functionality.
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To address prior methodological, contextual, and conceptual gaps in research on the spiral of silence (SOS), we investigated whether SOS manifests in online news comments where public opinions naturally emerge and examined the impact of these comments on public opinion. To analyze the progression of comments, we adopted a novel approach to time-series analysis—previously confined to social media—by implementing the dynamic time warp (DTW) technique. Data were collected from 47,845 comments on 281 online news articles related to three controversial topics published on a Korean portal site. Using DTW, we categorized comment patterns into four clusters across all topics: Contentious, Parallel, Overwhelming, and Gradual gap. A key observation was that minority opinions did not consistently follow a predictable path but rather displayed varied patterns. This indicates that SOS is selectively relevant in online discussions, with various factors influencing how minority opinions are expressed and shape public opinion. However, over a longer timeframe, the Contentious type, where minority views remained strong, significantly decreased in later discussions compared with earlier ones. Moreover, the current study corroborates previous research on the influence of initial comments. The pattern of comment flows is also influenced by factors such as click speech, neutral comments, and age.
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There is widespread concern that academic freedom is threatened by growing demands for intellectual conformity and attempted censorship from intolerant zealots. Student protests over the Israeli–Hamas conflict have intensified fierce debates about freedom of expression on campuses. This study seeks to understand the nature and scope of contemporary threats to academic freedom of expression worldwide, especially the role of self-censorship in this process. The first part unpacks the notion of a ‘cancel culture’ in academia. The research explores processes of self-censorship where scholars are unwilling to express their authentic views in public. Mechanisms theorized as potentially driving these processes include heterodox status (cultural minorities out of step with orthodox views); institutions (constitutional principles, laws, and regulations used by the authorities to govern academic speech); culture (attitudes towards free speech); and academic status (inequalities in academic power and security linked with gender and age). To examine these mechanisms, the second part sets out the research design. It draws upon survey data from the second World of Political Science survey (WPS-2023), monitoring the background and attitudes of almost 2000 political scientists living and working in around 100 countries worldwide. The third part analyzes the results, confirming the reluctance of heterodox scholars to challenge majority views. The conclusion in the fourth part summarizes the findings, considers their broader implications, and discusses the next steps in the research agenda.
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This study investigates whether the success of salary history bans could be limited by job-seekers volunteering their salaries unprompted. We survey American workers in 2019 and 2021 about their recent job searches, distinguishing when candidates were asked about salary history from when they were not. Historically well-paid workers may have an incentive to disclose, and employers who are aware of this could infer that nondisclosing workers are concealing low salaries. Through this mechanism, all workers could face pressure to avoid the stigma of silence. Our data shows a large percentage of workers (28%) volunteer salary history, even when a ban prevents employers from asking. An additional 47% will disclose if enough other job candidates disclose. Men are more likely than women to disclose their salaries unprompted, especially if they believe other candidates are disclosing. Over our 1.5-year sample covering jurisdictions with (and without) bans, unprompted volunteering of salary histories increased by about 6–8 percentage points. Funding: This work was supported by W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research; Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation (Emerging Scholars Program). Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2023.17384 .
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Background Disease outbreaks present a significant challenge to horse health and welfare and the economic stability of horse industries internationally. This is a particular concern in Ontario, Canada, where there have been frequent outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases among horses. Despite these risks, there has been limited research on whether Ontario horse owners engage in biosecurity measures sufficient to mitigate risk of equine diseases, and whether current events such as the COVID‐19 pandemic influence attitudes towards equine biosecurity practices. Objective To explore Ontario horse owners' perceptions, attitudes and experiences relating to on‐farm biosecurity during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Study design Qualitative study using virtual semi‐structured interviews. Methods Participants (horse owners, frequent horse riders and part boarders) were recruited using social media snowball sampling where advertisements were shared by equine and veterinary organisations. Interviews were conducted virtually between June and September 2022 and were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. Results Three key themes relating to biosecurity perceptions among the 14 participants were identified. Participants relied on minimal preventative measures (such as vaccines) where perceived risk of disease was low, but implemented additional measures including quarantine and handwashing when perceived risk of disease was high. Participants' choice of biosecurity practices often mirrored those recommended by the barn manager. Moreover, participants felt that responsibility for biosecurity was not shared equally across horse owners, with more emphasis placed on those engaging in high‐risk situations for disease spread. Despite experiencing biosecurity during the COVID‐19 pandemic, horse owners were not consistently applying these practices to their horse care routines. Main limitations The perspectives reported here are from a small sample of horse owners and may not be generalisable to all populations. Conclusions Our findings indicate that horse owners need improved access to and engagement with educational initiatives that emphasise the importance and purpose of all biosecurity measures.
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【The full text is available upon request】Governments and social media platforms strive to combat the spread of online rumors by fostering a positive public atmosphere of rumor combating. However, the effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain, as do the underlying mechanisms through which public atmosphere mobilizes social media users against rumors. Leveraging insights from psychological attachment theory and ethics research, this study aims to examine the mediating mechanisms and boundary conditions for the relationship between public atmosphere and rumor-combating participation (RCP). This empirical study employed a hypothetical scenario method to design two scenarios (i.e., strong vs. weak public atmosphere of rumor combating), and collected 331 valid responses using the MTurk platform. The results provide empirical evidence that public atmosphere significantly facilitates RCP. Moreover, high-level psychological attachment (i.e., identification and internalization) fully mediates the relationship between public atmosphere and RCP, but low-level psychological attachment (i.e., compliance) does not act as a mediator. Further examination of the boundary conditions revealed that moral judgment positively moderates the relationship between public atmosphere and psychological attachment (both high-level and low-level). However, anticipated guilt only exerts a positive moderating influence on the relationship between public atmosphere and low-level psychological attachment. This study provides fresh insights by revealing that public atmosphere can promote RCP by enhancing high-level psychological attachment, while uncovering the distinct moderating roles played by moral cognition and emotion in the process. Therefore, this paper not only advances our theoretical understanding of why and under what conditions public atmosphere influences RCP, but also offers practical insights into strategies for mobilizing social media users to combat rumors.
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The concept of public opinion is widely used in the social sciences: psychology, sociology, political, and communication science. Three distinct perspectives emerge from the many different definitions of the concept: individual, collective, and process.
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Developed by German survey and communication researcher → Elisabeth Noelle‐Neumann (1916–2010) in the 1960s and 1970s, the spiral of silence theory describes collective opinion formation and societal decision‐making in situations where the issue being debated or decided upon is controversial and morally loaded (→ Public Opinion; Conflict as Media Content; Social Conflict and Communication). The theory is one of the most frequently cited and debated to emerge from the field of communication studies during the latter half of the twentieth century.
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In recent years, a progressive “cancel culture” in society, right-wing politicians and commentators claim, has silenced alternative perspectives, ostracized contrarians, and eviscerated robust intellectual debate, with college campuses at the vanguard of this development. These arguments can be dismissed as rhetorical dog whistles devoid of substantive meaning, myths designed to fire up the MAGA faithful, outrage progressives, and distract from urgent real-world problems. Given heated contention, however, something more fundamental may be at work. To understand this phenomenon, the opening section defines the core concept and theorizes that perceptions of this phenomenon are likely to depend upon how far individual values fit the dominant group culture. Within academia, scholars most likely to perceive “silencing” are mismatched or non-congruent cases, where they are “fish-out-of-water.” The next section describes how empirical survey evidence is used to test this prediction within the discipline of political science. Data are derived from a global survey, the World of Political Science, 2019, involving almost 2500 scholars studying or working in over 100 countries. The next section describes the results. The conclusion summarizes the key findings and considers their broader implications. Overall, the evidence confirms the “fish-out-of-water” congruence thesis. As predicted, in post-industrial societies, characterized by predominately liberal social cultures, like the US, Sweden, and UK, right-wing scholars were most likely to perceive that they faced an increasingly chilly climate. By contrast, in developing societies characterized by more traditional moral cultures, like Nigeria, it was left-wing scholars who reported that a cancel culture had worsened. This contrast is consistent with Noelle-Neumann’s spiral of silence thesis, where mainstream values in any group gradually flourish to become the predominant culture, while, due to social pressures, dissenting minority voices become muted. The ratchet effect eventually muffles contrarians. The evidence suggests that the cancel culture is not simply a rhetorical myth; scholars may be less willing to speak up to defend their moral beliefs if they believe that their views are not widely shared by colleagues or the wider society to which they belong.
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A new information-processing paradigm, drawing heavily upon concepts generated by the cognitive sciences, has emerged in research on mass communication and public opinion. To make significant contributions to public opinion theory, however, this new cognitive paradigm must properly incorporate the “public” aspects of opinion formation—finding suitable ways to link individual-level information processing to the higher-level processes of public communication and social organization. Fundamental to public opinion theory is the notion that members of a public organize collectively through communication over a point of conflict. Researching this communicative process requires the analysis of cognition and opinion formation as individual-level phenomena that operate within, and that are thus largely dependent upon, the wider social context of public debate and collective organization. It is suggested that current developments in social identification theory may be particularly important in helping us to understand better how a mass of individuals can become a structured public through communication.
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Two quite different types of research design are characteristically used to study the modification of atitudes through communication. In the first type, the experiment, individuals are given a controlled exposure to a communication and the effects evaluated in terms of the amount of change in attitude or opinion produced In the alternative research design, the sample survey, information is secured through interviews or questionnaires, both concerning the respondent's exposure to various communications and his attitudes and opinions on various issues." Divergences in results from the 2 methods are cited and the reconciliation of apparent conflicts is attempted. There appear to be "certain inherent limitations of each method." The mutual importance of the 2 approaches to communication effectiveness is stressed. " each represents an important emphasis. The challenge of future work is one of fruitfully combining their virtues so that we may develop a social psychology of communication with the conceptual breadth provided by correlational study of process and with the rigorous but more delimited methodology of the experiment." 24 refs
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The individualism and collectivism constructs are theoretically analyzed and linked to certain hypothesized consequences (social behaviors, health indices). Study 1 explores the meaning of these constructs within culture (in the US), identifying the individual-differences variable, idiocentrism versus allocentrism, that corresponds to the constructs. Factor analyses of responses to items related to the constructs suggest that US individualism is reflected in (a) Self-Reliance With Competition, (b) Low Concern for Ingroups, and (c) Distance from Ingroups. A higher order factor analysis suggests that Subordination of Ingroup Goals to Personal Goals may be the most important aspect of US individualism. Study 2 probes the limits of the constructs with data from two collectivist samples (Japan and Puerto Rico) and one individualist sample (Illinois) of students. It is shown that responses depend on who the other is (i.e., which ingroup), the context, and the kind of social behavior (e.g., feel similar to other, attentive to the views of others). Study 3 replicates previous work in Puerto Rico indicating that allocentric persons perceive that they receive more and a better quality of social support than do idiocentric persons, while the latter report being more lonely than the former. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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E. Noelle-Neumann (e.g., 1973, 1984), in the spiral of silence theory (SOST) of public opinion (OP) formation, assumes that individuals are constantly striving to determine the overall distribution of OP on issues before they take the risky step of exposing their beliefs and OPs in public. This assumption is inconsistent with research in various disciplines showing that people are not accurate perceivers of the OPs of others. Research is synthesized supporting this position, and certain conclusions from the SOST are questioned. An alternative research stategy, drawn from social psychology, is suggested to test aspects of the SOST process. The strategy sets up conditions under which the SOST may be most likely to occur by measuring peer group OP congruence and forcing attention to opposing OP. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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This article takes the position that the reality of public opinion arises in communication processes and that the search—albeit with limited success—for behavioral effects has diverted researchers from recognizing the presence of strong “communication effects.” This article reviews the major perspectives in public opinion research and reconsiders their findings from a communication effects perspective.
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This chapter describes the spiral of silence, a theory first introduced in 1972 and published as a book in 1980. It argues that public opinion did not appear first in the eighteenth century, but has existed in all human societies for thousands of years as a force exerted on governments and individuals, creating and maintaining the consensus necessary for society’s functioning. The word public in the concept of “public opinion” is to be interpreted in the sense of “public eye,” “visible to all,” and thus as social control. Opinion refers to publicly visible and audible expressions of opinion as well as public behavior regarding value-laden issues. Its power derives from our social nature, from the willingness of society to threaten isolation in reaction to forbidden opinions and behaviors, and from the individual’s fear of isolation. This fear causes individuals to register continually any changes in society’s approval by means of a “quasi-statistical sense,” and to voice agreement upon increase in approval and to remain silent upon decrease, thus contributing to further decline in the popularity of the originally held opinion. The pressure of public opinion is a source of constant conflict for governments in weighing measures in order to win public support. Individuals also experience ongoing conflict between their individual inclinations and convictions and the social demands to conform. This chapter discusses the consequences of public opinion for the classical theory of democracy and for an understanding of mass media effects. The chapter also provides hypotheses and methods for testing them, and presents the example of public opinion concerning nuclear energy.
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It is strange, but true, that public opinion research, mass communications research and public opinion theory have become disconnected. It is difficult even to explain how any one of these can exist without the others, and yet the fact is that each has wandered off on its own. It is to the great credit of Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann that she has taken the lead in trying to bring them together again.1 Beginning with her call for a “return to a theory of powerful mass media”, Noelle-Neumann has been trying to show how the dynamics of media production and the dynamics of opinion formation interact, and how the process of this interaction can be described empirically by means of creative polling techniques.2 There may be room for debate over her inferences from the data, but nobody can underestimate the importance of her attempt to put the whole together.
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Noelle-Neumann's work on the spiral of silence (1974, 1977, 1984) has been one of the most significant theoretical developments in public opinion research of the past quarter-century. The theory is well known among public opinion researchers, and a number of research efforts have been directed toward examining specific parts of the theory. However, the theory is difficult to test, incorporating psychological, social-psychological and sociological variables, including psychological variables and sweeping changes in the social climate of opinion (cf. Noelle-Neumann 1984). This study investigated the role of opinion thresholds, social groups and weighing of others' opinions in opinion expression. Using Krassa's (1988) computer simulation and modifications of Noelle-Neumann's (1974) spiral of silence as a base, we test several theoretical modifications to the spiral of silence model using data gathered from people living in or near six national parks in Canada. Primary interest is on the ability of opinion thresholds, social group and weighing of others' opinions to predict the expression of opinion for particular issues.
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This study investigates the role of reference groups in individual willingness for personal expression, within the context of the Spiral of Silence theory. Reference group research has found important influences on individual opinion and behavior due to reference group behavior. Individuals commonly and spontaneously consider referent others' positions when making personal decisions. This interpersonal influence on individual behavior is missing from most research, if not theory, on public opinion, as in the case of the Spiral of Silence theory, where researchers have emphasized only strong mass mediated societal or intra-individual sources of social influence. The individual is often treated as if in social isolation, bereft of friendship and community ties, open to the influences of societal forces. Reviews of the Spiral of Silence research in particular, and of public opinion research more generally, have urged the investigation of groups as important intermediaries in social influence settings. In this study, societal majority influence was compared to referent other majority influence in an experimental setting. Overall, when reference and societal majority opinions are made equally salient, the more important influence is clearly that of one's reference group. Individuals with extreme opinions, however, seem altogether unaffected by social influence. Results and alternative explanations are discussed.
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This article describes an experiment in which experimental and control questionnaires were sent to two different sample groups of respondents. Both questionnaires contained the same four opinion questions and were identical to each other except that each opinion question on the experimental questionnaire was preceded by the most recent national poll result on that question. Comparisons of the responses to both questionnaires revealed that blue-collar workers seemed to react negatively while white-collar workers seemed to react positively (in both opinion and response rate) to the national poll results
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A model developed by Brams and Riker predicts when a bandwagon effect should occur in situations where two voting blocs compete for the support of uncommitted voters in a small voting body. This paper extends the Brams-Riker model to large voting bodies. The result is a "bandwagon curve," predicting when bandwagon effects should occur in such bodies. The analysis is applied to the 1976 U.S. Republican Presidential nomination. We also show how the model can be applied when there are more than two competing blocs and consider the 1956 Democratic Vice-Presidential nomination as an example.
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This innovative study blends sophisticated statistical analyses, campaign anecdotes, and penetrating political insight to produce a fascinating exploration of one of America's most controversial political institutions--the process by which our major parties nominate candidates for the presidency. Larry Bartels focuses on the nature and impact of "momentum" in the contemporary nominating system. He describes the complex interconnections among primary election results, expectations, and subsequent primary results that have made it possible for candidates like Jimmy Carter, George Bush, and Gary Hart to emerge from relative obscurity into political prominence in recent nominating campaigns. In the course of his analysis, he addresses questions central to any understanding--or evaluation--of the modern nominating process. How do fundamental political predispositions influence the behavior of primary voters? How quickly does the public learn about new candidates? Under what circumstances will primary success itself generate subsequent primary success? And what are the psychological processes underlying this dynamic tendency?Professor Bartels examines the likely consequences of some proposed alternatives to the current nominating process, including a regional primary system and a one-day national primary. Thus the work will be of interest to political activists, would-be reformers, and interested observers of the American political scene, as well as to students of public opinion, voting behavior, the news media, campaigns, and electoral institutions.
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Tested here is the argument that political outspokenness is affected not only by one's perception of the climate of opinion and one's gender, age, education and income, as Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann argues, but also by one's interest in politics and level of self-efficacy, the obtrusiveness of the issue, extent of media use, and by certainty of views held. A 1987 survey of 624 individuals in Austin, Texas, suggests that people may not be as helpless in the face of public opinion as Noelle-Neumann's “Spiral of Silence” theory would hold, and that there are certain conditions under which it is possible to buck the spiral to express opinions.
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In this experiment knowledge of the views of a reference public influenced preferences for both candidates and issues in five tests; the data tend to favor a consistency explanation over “bandwagon effect.”
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The tendency for individuals to perceive a greater impact of media messages on others than on the self, Davison (1983) argues, has led to a number of policy decisions in which élites have exercised control of mass media messages in order to 'protect' vulnerable others. The third-person effect has been well-documented in experimental research with little attention to its theoretical underpinnings, or its antecedents or consequences. This article argues that the third-person effect can be understood through attribution theory, especially through the concepts of self-serving bias and effectance motivation. Second, it demonstrates that the third-person effect is influenced by certain social structural factors, media use patterns, and perceived harm of content. Finally, while perceptions of harm are related to perceptions of influence, influence does not play a role in predicting support for external control of media content, while perceived harm has a significant impact.
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Past research has shown that surveillance, unanimity of others, and ambiguous stimuli all contribute to conformity. This study sought to determine whether people will conform to a group they identify with even in the absence of all three contributing conditions. Using college students as subjects, the researcher posed as a pollster asking for responses to six statements on public issues. The falsified results of an earlier “national college sample” were used as the majority consensus stimulus. A written questionnaire was administered in private, and then placed in a locked ballot box. This study found no evidence of conformity, suggesting that when people have definite attitudes, and when others are not unanimous in their opinions, the social pressures produced by surveillance are necessary in order to produce conformity
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The article examines the impact of poll results on voter support for candidates. An experimental design was used to manipulate candidates' level of support in reputable opinion polls. The poll results were presented in a television newscast. The effects of the poll‐related news report were assessed with regard to voters' intention to vote, their assessments of the candidates' prospects, and their voting preference. Our results indicate that exposure to poll results influences individuals' preferences significantly (people become more positive toward the leading candidate) but not their intention to vote.
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This article focuses on the circumstances in which individuals mistakenly assume that their beliefs, perceptions, and feelings differ from those of their peers. Pluralistic ignorance, as this phenomenon is called, yields numerous significant consequences for the self (e.g., illusory feelings of deviance) and for the collective (e.g., the perpetuation of unpopular social norms). It also illustrates several important ways in which the self and the collective influence each other. The authors propose that pluralistic ignorance has its roots in collectively shared misconceptions about the relative power of different motives. Specifically, it occurs when widely shared but erroneous social representations of human motivation lead people to view the motive guiding their behavior as one that would not exert a comparable influence on the behavior of others.
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This study examined the influence of individualism-collectivism on communication in ingroup and outgroup relationships. Differences were predicted in ingroup and outgroup communication in collectivistic cultures. It was also hypothesized that self-monitoring and predicted-outcome value (POV) of the relationships also affect communication processes in these relationships. Data were collected in Hong Kong and Japan (collectivistic) and in Australia and the United States (individualistic). Results supported the prediction regarding the influence of cultural variability on ingroup and outgroup communication, as well as those regarding the influence of self-monitoring and POV.
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This paper explores the role of perceptions of the opinions of others as they relate to the formation of public opinion. Two interrelated theories involving such perceptions, the third person effect and the spiral of silence, are tested in the context of public opinion regarding divestment of financial interests in South Africa. As hypothesized by the third person effect, perceptions of the influence of media reports on others were found to be consistently greater than perceptions of influence on self. Findings were strongly supportive of this component of the ‘third person effect’ hypothesis. Perceptions of the opinions of others were also explored in relation to respondents' willingness to express their opinions publicly. As suggested by the spiral of silence theory, respondents were found to be more willing to express their opinions publicly when they perceived a trend in support of their viewpoint, or when there was a greater perceived likelihood of achieving success for their issue position. The size of the effect produced from joining these two processes is moderated by the role of issue salience. People perceiving divestment as a highly important issue are more likely to ascribe greater media influence to others than to themselves, but their willingness to express their opinions publicly is least likely to be influenced by perceptions of the climate of opinion.
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The abstract for this document is available on CSA Illumina.To view the Abstract, click the Abstract button above the document title.
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This article summarizes the findings of the effect of exit polls on voting behavior. Both macro and micro methods have been used, and no methods are perfect. Exit polls appear to cause small declines in total voting in areas where the polls close late for those elections where the exit polls predict a clear winner when previously the race had been considered close.
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• As the title suggests, this book examines the psychology of interpersonal relations. In the context of this book, the term "interpersonal relations" denotes relations between a few, usually between two, people. How one person thinks and feels about another person, how he perceives him and what he does to him, what he expects him to do or think, how he reacts to the actions of the other--these are some of the phenomena that will be treated. Our concern will be with "surface" matters, the events that occur in everyday life on a conscious level, rather than with the unconscious processes studied by psychoanalysis in "depth" psychology. These intuitively understood and "obvious" human relations can, as we shall see, be just as challenging and psychologically significant as the deeper and stranger phenomena. The discussion will center on the person as the basic unit to be investigated. That is to say, the two-person group and its properties as a superindividual unit will not be the focus of attention. Of course, in dealing with the person as a member of a dyad, he cannot be described as a lone subject in an impersonal environment, but must be represented as standing in relation to and interacting with another person. The chapter topics included in this book include: Perceiving the Other Person; The Other Person as Perceiver; The Naive Analysis of Action; Desire and Pleasure; Environmental Effects; Sentiment; Ought and Value; Request and Command; Benefit and Harm; and Reaction to the Lot of the Other Person. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved) • As the title suggests, this book examines the psychology of interpersonal relations. In the context of this book, the term "interpersonal relations" denotes relations between a few, usually between two, people. How one person thinks and feels about another person, how he perceives him and what he does to him, what he expects him to do or think, how he reacts to the actions of the other--these are some of the phenomena that will be treated. Our concern will be with "surface" matters, the events that occur in everyday life on a conscious level, rather than with the unconscious processes studied by psychoanalysis in "depth" psychology. These intuitively understood and "obvious" human relations can, as we shall see, be just as challenging and psychologically significant as the deeper and stranger phenomena. The discussion will center on the person as the basic unit to be investigated. That is to say, the two-person group and its properties as a superindividual unit will not be the focus of attention. Of course, in dealing with the person as a member of a dyad, he cannot be described as a lone subject in an impersonal environment, but must be represented as standing in relation to and interacting with another person. The chapter topics included in this book include: Perceiving the Other Person; The Other Person as Perceiver; The Naive Analysis of Action; Desire and Pleasure; Environmental Effects; Sentiment; Ought and Value; Request and Command; Benefit and Harm; and Reaction to the Lot of the Other Person. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Article
This 1986 survey of 432 Madison, Wisconsin, residents describes an elaborated version of Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann's model of the “spiral of silence.” Consistent with her hypotheses, persons whose opinions were congruent with those of the national majority were more willing to speak to a stranger than were those whose opinions were shared only by a minority; however, the same result was not obtained for either a different mode of expression or system level. Factors such as involvement and knowledge were found to directly influence opinion expression, whereas education and gender were found to be indirectly related to expression.
Article
In her model of opinion formation, Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann postulates a spiral of silence: to avoid isolation, people holding minority views either alter their ideas to conform to the majority's stance or remain silent, thus increasing the impression of the majority view's dominance. While providing a helpful integration of disparate ideas in public opinion formation, Noelle-Neumann's framework has been questioned at a number of points. Is it reasonable to assume that since people fear isolation, most fear being in the minority? Research suggests, in fact, that many people can oppose majority views as long as they have individual or group support and that interpersonal relationships have a greater impact on opinion formation than impersonal public opinion presented via the media. Recent studies have also offered an alternative to Noelle-Neumann's view of people as simply reacting to their perception of public opinion, suggesting that instead, people use their own opinions to form their perceptions of public attitudes. Whether people's behavior resembles the reaction or projection model may depend on a number of conditions, including their familiarity with the issue. Further research is needed on the many factors influencing opinion formation. (MM)
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With college students, it was found that knowledge of the results of the Literary Digest's poll in the 1936 presidential election influenced subjects to favor Landon, but the difference was not statistically significant. The results of a further investigation were inconclusive as to whether individuals who shifted their preference after knowledge of poll results were influenced by the poll. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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A one-volume compilation of some of Sherif's important contributions to social psychology, including his work on the formation of social norms and on intergroup conflict. Harvard Book List (edited) 1971 #473 (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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Using a modified group-pressure technique, conformity among Norweigians and French was measured. 3 different experiments were performed. In all cases, the level of conformity was higher in Norway than in France. The results are discussed in terms of the prevailing cultural and political differences (the National Character) existing in each country. From Psyc Abstracts 36:04:4GB45M. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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In 1953 "… one hundred men visited the Institute of Personality Assessment and Research… to participate in an intensive three-day assessment of those qualities related to superior functioning in their profession." Conformity is discussed with regard to individual differences, relations to personality variables, conformity behavior in different populations, psychological processes involved in expressions of conformity to group pressure, and the reinforcement of conformity behavior. The author suggests that "… we have what appears to be a powerful new research technique, enabling the study of conformity behavior within a setting which effectively stimulates genuine group interaction, yet preserves the essential requirements of objective measurement." (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)