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The renewable energy landscape in Canada: A spatial analysis
Abstract
Numerous strategies for sourcing renewable energy are available for development and expansion, yet for many countries the idea of eventually transitioning to a completely renewable energy supply using domestic resources currently appears unfeasible. As a large country with low population density, Canada may be expected to face fewer obstacles in this regard. However, not only are Canada's population centers clustered largely in its south, but energy policy is significantly devolved to the level of provinces, making a match between energy demand and renewable supply more challenging. In order to address this challenge, we collect data from a variety of sources and combine it with our own geographical analysis to develop a scenario of renewable portfolios at the provincial level. We explicitly estimate the optimal sites, based on straightforward criteria, for development of each resource. In order to keep the analysis transparent, we focus on physical feasibility rather than economic details and, by lumping together all energy demand, we assume substitutability between electrically-provided and fuel-based energy delivery. Our assessments include wind, solar, hydro, tidal, wave, and geothermal energy, with a limited discussion of bioenergy. For comparison, we also break down current energy demand in each province according to categories intended to be meaningful to households. We find that overall with current technology Canada could more than provide for its energy needs using renewables, two-thirds of which would come from onshore and offshore wind, with much of the remainder coming from hydro. However, we find large differences across provinces in both the mix and magnitude of renewable potential. We find each province individually to be easily capable of renewable energy self-sufficiency at current levels of demand, with the exception of Ontario and Alberta. We believe this is the first combined, geographically-resolved inventory of renewable energy sources in Canada.
... In Canada, in addition to the geographic variability and quality of renewable resources, there are three other challenges involved in deploying additional renewables: (1) Energy is provincially and territorially regulated; (2) A combination of various sources is required to incorporate much more renewable energy into the grid at various scales and locations [34]; and (3) Different communities of different sizes are distributed differently with respect to population centres. In Canada, wind energy has grown rapidly-20% annually from 2008 to 2018 [35,36]; it is currently responsible for around 5% of overall electrical energy generation [27], and in this paper, the authors will show that potential exists for massive penetration into power supply systems, providing storage issues can be successfully and economically addressed. ...
... Currently, historically low interest rates, tax rebates and technology advances make wind projects widely cost-effective in many locations [52,55]. Positive factors also include an adequate and accessible consumer base, suitable existing grid infrastructure [34,52], and other local energy sources and storage capacity (e.g., a hydro facility) that can be easily integrated with wind to increase its utility. ...
... Barrington-Leigh and Ouliaris [34] conducted a feasibility study for identification of high-potential areas in Canada (both on-shore and offshore) to develop wind power. Among their assumptions are a 5 km stand-off from urbanized areas and a maximum distance of 75 km from (1) represents the average percentage decrease of the high-end and low-end of the LCOE range, and (2) represents the average compounded annual rate of decline of the high-end and low-end of the LCOE range. ...
The negative consequences of global warming and climate change demonstrate that conversion to carbon-free or low-carbon, sustainable, and eco-friendly energy sources is essential. Wind energy substitution, as a renewable and widely available energy source, can be an appropriate, effective, and practical contribution to reducing fossil fuel use worldwide. To show the importance of wind energy in the future global energy supply, the current status and future prospects of wind power in Canada are statistically analyzed, as a case study, in terms of installed capacity, generation, capacity factor, and insights are provided on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The originality of this study is to present a comprehensive basis for assessing future growth and the potential development of wind power in Canada’s electricity supply mix to the year 2040 by using different predictive methods, including historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR), linear forecasting, and CAGR of 5, 10 and 15%, selected based on a presumed policy interjection at the provincial- or territorial-level. The comparative assessment of wind energy generated by various predictive methods up to 2040 shows that the historical CAGR and the CAGR of 15% respectively have the lowest and highest growth rates in meeting the total annual end-use electricity demand for Canadian provinces and territories, except for Alberta, Saskatchewan, Yukon, and Nunavut, where the lowest growth rate belongs to the linear forecasting approach. However, these predictive scenarios strongly depend on the energy policies of the provincial or territorial governments. In addition, the influence of increasing installed wind power capacity in Canada on the LCOE is examined using a linear forecasting model with various decline rates for costs. The results indicate that the reduction in LCOE robustly depends on a higher installed wind power capacity. Moreover, the relationship between the wind power capacity factor and LCOE is evaluated based on different forecasting scenarios, where it is observed that the LCOE is strongly inversely associated with capacity factor. As a general result, many regions of Canada are identified as having a highly promising wind energy potential, especially in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, either as a stand-alone source or integrated with other energy sources, along with energy storage capabilities, to meet future electricity requirements with a low carbon footprint.
... Canada's geography-the second largest landmass and the longest coastline in the world-has a relatively low population density, with urban population centers clustered in the south [24]. The Canadian economy is heavily dependent on resource extraction and exports [25], with energy transport infrastructure organized continentally (North-South) rather than nationally (East-West) [20]. ...
... One recent model estimated that, based on current technology, it is possible to supply current demand with 100% renewable power in Canada [24]. While wind and solar power account for over 60% of Canada's total renewable potential (amounting to 92% of its 2010 demand), hypothetically, solar potential is unlimited. ...
... While the potential for greening Canada's energy sector is promising [24], the federal government persists in supporting the development of the oil sands sector [67]. Continued development of the oil sands creates immense challenges for a GND as well as global climate disruption. ...
... Canada, for instance, holds abundant landscapes and natural resources that can, in theory, supply the entire country's power consumption [6]. Currently, RE resources, including hydropower, solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal, account for over 60% of Canada's total primary energy supply [7,8]. ...
... The Canadian province of Alberta has one of the highest annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions per-capita at 62.4 tonnes compared to the national average of 19.4 tonnes [9]. Meanwhile, Alberta has some of the most promising and significant utility-scale RE resources in the country including on-shore wind, solar, and biomass resources [6,[10][11][12][13]. Alberta is also one of the largest oil-producing jurisdictions in the world [14] and approximately 83% of its electricity generating capacity is coal-and natural-gas-fired generated [15]. ...
... For instance, the town of Okotoks in southern Alberta has higher solar energy potential than Miami in Florida from July to October [22]. Solar energy can be classified into solar photovoltaic (PV) systems that include the rooftop level PV system and ground-mounted systems, along with solar thermal collectors that are particularly used to pre-heat water [6]. The town of Canmore commissioned a study to evaluate its rooftop solar potential at the neighbourhood level [23]. ...
Land-based, utility-scale renewable energy (RE) systems using wind or solar resources to generate electricity is becoming a decisive solution to meet long-term carbon emission reduction goals. Local governments are responding in kind, by adopting their own goals and/or establishing policies to facilitate successful implementations of RE in their jurisdiction. One factor to successful RE development is to locate the most suitable lands, while continuing to sustain land-based economies and ecosystem services. Local governments often have limited resources; and this is especially true for small, land-constrained local governments. In this paper, we illustrate how a standardized RE technical mapping framework can be used by local governments to advance the implementation of RE in land-constrained areas, through a case study in the Town of Canmore, Alberta. Canmore has a limited municipal area surrounded by the Canadian Rockies, along with complex land-use bylaw and environmentally sensitive habitats. This mapping framework accounts for these conditions as it considers theoretical resources, technically recoverable lands, legally accessible lands, and the spatial capital cost of connecting new RE facilities. Different land-use planning scenarios are considered including changing setback buffers and expanding restrictions on development to all environmentally sensitive districts. The total RE potentials are then estimated based on the least-conflict lands. Technically speaking, even under restrictive land suitability scenarios, Canmore holds enough land to achieve ambitious RE targets, but opportunities and challenges to implementation remain. To eventually succeed in its long-term emission reduction goal, the most decisive step for Canmore is to balance the growth of energy demands, land-use changes, and practicable RE development. Mapping systems that can study the influence of land-use planning decisions on RE potential are critical to achieving this balance.
... Canada's geography-the second largest landmass and the longest coastline in the world-has a relatively low population density, with urban population centers clustered in the south [24]. The Canadian economy is heavily dependent on resource extraction and exports [25], with energy transport infrastructure organized continentally (North-South) rather than nationally (East-West) [20]. ...
... One recent model estimated that, based on current technology, it is possible to supply current demand with 100% renewable power in Canada [24]. While wind and solar power account for over 60% of Canada's total renewable potential (amounting to 92% of its 2010 demand), hypothetically, solar potential is unlimited. ...
... While the potential for greening Canada's energy sector is promising [24], the federal government persists in supporting the development of the oil sands sector [67]. Continued development of the oil sands creates immense challenges for a GND as well as global climate disruption. ...
A global movement is underway to harness the power of coordinated state policy to address the significant and interrelated challenges of environmental degradation, climate change, poverty, and energy insecurity. In May 2019 a grassroots coalition comprising a range of civil society groups—scientists, labour unions, Indigenous peoples, and youth—launched the Pact for a Green New Deal (PGND) in Canada, with more than 150 town hall meetings across the country. Participants called for 100% renewable energy, phase out of the oil sands, a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030, and the creation of 1 million new green jobs and reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples [1]. A significant reorientation to the scale and direction of government expenditure, as happened in the American New Deal of the 1930s, can spur technical innovation but can also exacerbate inequalities. A Canadian green transition is significant globally given its high energy production, exports, and internal use. In this perspective piece we examine the transformative potential of a Canadian PGND by focusing on the social and political characteristics of energy infrastructure: the potential for 100% renewable energy, transitions for oil sands, energy democracy, Indigenous energy leadership, gender equity, and energy poverty. The actor coalitions emerging from these then forge specific energy transition pathways, whether just and inclusive, or not. The Canadian case highlights the complexities and opportunities that accompany countries with large geographies, fraught geo-political histories, strong federalism, inequalities of access to clean affordable energy, and an abundance of renewable energy.
... Furthermore, all studies assume presentday conditions and do not consider future developments in electricity demand, expected for technological innovations or land availability in the next 30 years. [18][19][20][21] Kienast et al 16 also work on the national level and also include selected landscape services similar to Palmas et al. 9 Their research also reveals the limits of studies that are economically focused by highlighting the conflicts and restraints at the local level of expanding renewable energies. Once again, their study assumes the existing generation technologies and land uses as the status quo and does not consider future development opportunities. ...
... 16 For this reason, the nationwide calculation of potentials for a supply of RE requires the utilization of spatial data. 18,20 Furthermore, downscaling in spatial planning requires spatially explicit information. Consequently, the model was built in a geographical information system (GIS). ...
Although the transition to energy supply through renewables (RE) is, in general, politically accepted in Germany, its progress is slowed by conflicting interests, primarily nature conservation and protesting residents. This study aims to find ways to solve these conflicts in Germany. To this end, the researchers developed a geospatial model that calculates RE potentials and vulnerabilities of nature and humans. Both data input and some evaluation standards are variables in the model. The outcomes are compared to an estimated total energy demand in 2050. Two ambitious scenarios (“no regret” and “compromise”) show that a maximum of 4% of the German territory is available to meet the energy demand. This demand can be met using PV in urban areas and wind in rural landscapes without significantly impairing nature's and people's wellbeing. Solar parks and other potentials not considered in the model are treated as a reserve, which can be included if the energy targets are not met under the assumed scenario conditions. Such reserves also provide flexibility for co‐determination in public participation.
... However, energyintensive industries are exempt from paying the subsidies, which reduces their electrical energy prices considerably [110]. As mentioned above, strengthening of the electrical grid has been another issue not only in Germany, since production sights of renewable energies often do not coincide with existing locations of high energy demand such as areas with larger populations or industrial consumers [111,112]. In Germany, the main industrial consumers are located in the southern part while wind energy is primarily generated in northern Germany, closer to the coastline or even offshore [113]. ...
The ongoing move toward carbon neutrality in Europe and, more recently, towards reducing Russian natural gas as an energy source poses a significant challenge to energy-intensive processes such as the German chemical industry. While many current research studies focus on the transformation of the electrical grid required for the transition to renewable energy sources and the related technical problems and market design, little research has been conducted on the practical feasibility and requirements of energy transformation in energy-intensive process industries. This publication addresses this gap using the projected future energy demand of the German chemical industry and simulation of its coverage by different renewable energy production scenarios using past data on power outputs from renewable energies. Ten-gigawatt offshore wind power installed without additional storage would reduce the natural gas consumption of inflexible large-scale processes in the German chemical industry by 63% or fossil energy consumption by 42%. Hydrogen energy storage has little effect unless employed at sizes comparable to the entire current German storage volume for natural gas. In consequence, while the substitution of fossil energies is technically feasible, the undertaking of reaching a high level of substitution is of a magnitude that makes the time frames currently set seem somewhat optimistic without massive reductions in energy consumption by shutting down large parts of the industry.
... Current study also limits installed wind capacity to 2-MW per square kilometers to maintain real world available surface area constraints. This constraint is an estimate to maintain feasibility and minimum and maximum distance to urbanized areas and transmission lines which agrees with other Canadian renewable feasibility studies [47]. ...
Canada's power system is directly responsible for around 9% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions. Integrating new variable renewable energy resources is posited as one of the core pathways to decarbonizing the system. However, the inherent variability of many renewable energy resources necessitates greater spatial and temporal flexibility. Transmission expansion can deliver spatial flexibility while bulk storage can deliver temporal flexibility. Assessing flexibility adequacy requires an operational perspective employing fine temporal and spatial resolutions. In this study, a novel bidirectionally linked framework is developed to leverage insights from both operational and planning models. Variable renewable energy curtailment is selected as a metric to analyze operational flexibility, which informs iterative revisions in the planning model. The results from four cases show that: (1) Transmission and storage capacities beyond the planning model's initial output are required to maintain sufficient operational flexibility in a zero-emission power system in 2050; (2) Wind capacity overestimation in initial results must be corrected; and (3) Increased total system costs can be partially offset by improvements in wind curtailment, congestion, and load shedding. It is concluded that the iterative expansion-dispatch framework proposed in this analysis yields important insights beyond stand-alone analyses, particularly in the context of a net-zero power system.
... Refs. [22][23][24], although debates on underlying assumptions remain [25,26]). ...
Although complementarity achieved by combining multiple renewable energy sources (RES) is an important method to increase shares of RES, it is often overlooked in policy prescriptions supporting an energy transition. Complementarity can be implemented by multiple actors, however there has been little attention to which actors are involved, and their roles. A systematic review was conducted to provide an overview of the state of academic literature on the topic of combinations of multiple RES and the involvement of multiple associated actors. The sample included 78 articles using a range of methodologies to analyze varying combinations of wind, solar, bioenergy, hydro, geothermal, and ocean energy, alongside combinations of traditional, new, and supporting energy actors. Studies included contextualized (location specific) agent-based, techno-economic, economic, business model, and qualitative analyses, and decontextualized reviews, agent-based, and optimization models. Multi-actor complementarity is being addressed by diverse disciplines in diverse contexts globally, across a range of geographic scales. The majority of studies focus on solar-wind, although more diverse RES combinations were found in contextualized studies. New actors usually participate alongside traditional system actors. More attention to supporting actors is required. Findings highlight the need for further research beyond the technical benefits of combining multiple RES, to explore the roles of various actors. This can be accomplished by incorporating more context in studies, for example, using the substantial existing body of data and research, and by including a greater range of RES combinations, and incorporating more perspectives of associated actors.
... Bisherige nationale und internationale Studien zur Transformation des Energiesystems konzentrieren sich vor allem auf die Berechnung des Energiepotenzials (Ghorbani et al. 2017), sind nicht ausreichend flächenscharf oder ohne Berücksichtigung der Landschaftsästhetik an gelegt (Klaus et al. 2010;Allen, Varga 2014;BMVI 2015). Die Studien berechnen nationale Potenziale auf Basis eher grober Eingangsdaten oder gehen von heutigen Bedingungen aus: Die zukünftige Entwick lung des Naturschutzes, die Stromnachfrage, technologische Innova tionen oder die Verfügbarkeit von Flächen in den nächsten 30 Jahren werden nicht berücksichtigt (GüngörDemirci 2015;BarringtonLeigh, Ouliaris 2017;Drechsler et al. 2017;Rinne et al. 2018). Gauglitz et al. (2019) Walter et al. (2018). ...
Die Energiewende genießt in Deutschland sehr hohe Zustimmung in der Bevölkerung. Allerdings sind bei diesem Transformationsprozess auch andere Belange wie der Schutz der biologischen Vielfalt und die Interessen der Anwohnerinnen und Anwohner zu berücksichtigen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt mit Szenarien Wege zur Lösung dieser Konflikte. Dazu wurde ein GIS-Modell entwickelt, das die Empfindlichkeiten von Mensch und Natur berücksichtigt und flächenkonkret sowie summativ für Deutschland Potenziale für erneuerbare Energien berechnet und einem für 2050 projizierten Bedarf gegenüberstellt. Das Modell dient der Entscheidungsunterstützung: Sowohl der Energiebedarf als auch die eingegebenen Daten können als Variablen behandelt werden. Die Projektionen zeigen, dass der Strombedarf von 1 500 Terawattstunden(TWh)/a im Jahr 2050 bei einer intelligenten Verteilung von On-Shore-Windenergieanlagen und einer sehr ambitionierten Nutzung von Dachflächen mit Photovoltaik gedeckt werden kann. Das Modell liefert die Grundlage für ein Werkzeug, das einer wissensbasierten Lenkung der Energiewende dient und in Zukunft bereitgestellt werden kann.
https://bfn.bsz-bw.de/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/1085/file/NuL2021-11-02.pdf
... Finally, the changing spatial distribution of residential electricity demand, conditioned on future projections and current relevant parameters, could be linked with geographically dependent information about electricity generation from renewable sources. The latter is often based on spatially disaggregated and heterogeneous processes, which need to be reconciled with the local demand (Ramachandra and Shruthi, 2007;Aydin et al., 2010;Barrington-Leigh and Ouliaris, 2017). For instance, given information on solar radiation and wind, and especially in the case of decentralised and autonomous generation, the methodology could provide a valuable guide for policymakers in assessing future trends and areas to prioritise with tailored interventions. ...
This work projects future residential electricity demand in Italy at the local (1 km grid) level based on population, land use, socio-economic and climate scenarios for the year 2050. A two-step approach is employed. In the first step, a grid-level model is estimated to explain land use as a function of socio-economic and demographic variables. In the second step, a provincial-level model explaining residential electricity intensity (gigawatt hours [GWh] per kilometre of residential land) as a function of socio-economic and climatic information is estimated. The estimates of the two models are then combined to project downscaled residential electricity consumption. The evidence suggests not only that the residential electricity demand will increase in the future but, most importantly, that its spatial distribution and dispersion will change in the next decades mostly due to changes in population density. Policy implications are discussed in relation to efficiency measures and the design of green energy supply from local production plants to facilitate matching demand with supply.
... Finally, the changing spatial distribution of residential electricity demand, conditioned on future projections and current relevant parameters, could be linked with geographically dependent information about the electric grid reliability (Gallaher et al., 2021) or to the electricity generation from renewable sources. The latter is often based on spatially disaggregated and heterogeneous processes, which need to be reconciled with the local demand (Ramachandra and Shruthi, 2007;Aydin et al., 2010;Barrington-Leigh and Ouliaris, 2017). For instance, given information on solar radiation and wind, and especially in the case of decentralised and autonomous generation, the methodology could provide a valuable guide for policymakers in assessing future trends and areas to prioritise with tailored interventions. ...
This work projects future residential electricity demand in Italy at the local (1 km grid) level based on population, land use, socio-economic and climate scenarios for the year 2050. A two-step approach is employed. In the first step, a grid-level model is estimated to explain land use as a function of socio-economic and demographic variables. In the second step, a provincial-level model explaining residential electricity intensity (gigawatt hours [GWh] per kilometre of residential land) as a function of socio-economic and climatic information is estimated. The estimates of the two models are then combined to project downscaled residential electricity consumption. The evidence suggests not only that the residential electricity demand will increase in the future but, most importantly, that its spatial distribution and dispersion will change in the next decades mostly due to changes in population density. Policy implications are discussed in relation to efficiency measures and the design of green energy supply from local production plants to facilitate matching demand with supply.
... Renewable energy technologies have a significant role in Canada's pathway to net-zero emissions. The country has considerable renewable energy sources: biomass, geothermal, hydropower, ocean resources, solar, and wind [16]. Wind and solar photovoltaic generated 5.2% and 0.5% of Canada's electric power in 2017, respectively, and are expected to grow faster than other renewable resources generating electric power in the coming years [13]. ...
Greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are one of the main causes of anthropogenic climate change. Large-scale deployment of renewable energy can play an immense role in transforming the global energy system and mitigating the emissions. This paper describes the development of a novel framework called MArket Penetration ModeLing of Renewable Energy Technologies in Electric Power Sector (MAPLET-PS). MAPLET-PS assesses the impacts of policy measures such as carbon price and financial incentives on the adoption of renewable energy technologies. The framework was used to develop a case study for the electric power sector of Alberta, a fossil-dominated province in Western Canada. The results show that implementing a carbon price on fossil fuel electric power sources and incentives for renewable energy, along with the phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation, can mitigate 29% of Alberta's electricity sector 2020 GHG emissions by 2050 and reduce GHG emissions from 46.5 Mt of CO2 eq. in 2020 to 23.6 and 29.1 Mt of CO2 eq. per year in 2030 and 2050, respectively, in Alberta. Moreover, these changes can increase the share of renewable energies from 12.5% in 2018 to 30% in 2050. These rates can be achieved by implementing a carbon price along with a 1000 $ incentive per kW new capacity development and 70 $ incentive per MWh electric power generation from renewable sources, from 2021 to 2025, primarily from wind turbines.
... The obtained result represent a quantity 3 orders of magnitude higher than current production and more than 216 times higher than the overall electricity production of 652 TWh. Compared with another spatial based estimation [108] of 1380 TWh/yr it still results good, but quite comparable if considering that the study apply land exclusions assumptions. So the result is surely impressive if compared with current data, but acceptable if referred to an estimation of national potential. ...
The purpose of the study is to localize sites for the production of hydrogen from renewable energy sources (RES) and its injection in the natural gas transport network. The study is performed with Geographic Information System (GIS) based analysis. The first step is the analysis of GIS data on RES potential power production in Canada, in particular for wind and solar PV. The results are extracted and the power potential obtained is transformed in potential production of hydrogen with electrolysis. The results are disposed on the map and spatial criteria are used to identify the production hubs. In particular the main criteria are the production potential and the distance of the sites from the natural gas network. Different analysis are performed by changing the quantity of hydrogen to produce to satisfy different levels of injection in the natural gas grid. The GIS software used in the analysis is ArcGis, in the ArcMap 10.6 version.
... A 100% renewable energy transition has been modelled as possible, based on current technology (see e.g. [22][23][24], although there is debate over the underlying assumptions of these models [25,26]). ...
... A 100% renewable energy transition has been modelled as possible, based on current technology (see e.g. [22][23][24], although there is debate over the underlying assumptions of these models [25,26]). ...
... MacArthur et al. [2] have argued that a democratic transition to renewable enery led by Indigenous people holds promise. Across Canada's vast landscape, modeling suggests that renewable energy potential based on current technology can supply much more than what is needed for current energy demand with 100% renewable energy in Canada, to a hypothetical maximum of 3670 terawatt hours per year [23]. All of this renewable energy potential in Canada resides on Indigenous traditional lands. ...
Reconciliation is about the genuine restructuring and transformation of the relationships between Indigenous and settler people. Although renewable energy has not been inherently positive for Indigenous peoples, Indigenous communities in Canada have been participating in renewable energy production, which presents a potential pathway to reconciliation, climate change mitigation and a just energy transition. This study explores whether and to what extent community energy-defined by deep engagement in process, as well as local and collective benefits-relates to elements of participation associated with reconciliation, both conceptually and empirically. A conceptual framework based in community energy was developed to characterize and analyse 194 renewable energy projects associated with Indigenous communities. This framework considered 'community' as belonging to traditional land, places where Indigenous people live, and as local authority, such as the Indigenous political organization of a settlement or reserve. Projects were examined by legal form, project location, and control. The findings do not provide strong indications of reconciliation. We suggest that one pathway to reconciliation is equity ownership, which has risen over time, although most projects located on traditional territories and Indigenous communities generally have minority or no ownership. There were no projects associated with Métis communities, and only 6 associated with Inuit communities. Institutional change requires implementation of free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) and extensive policy supports. Further research with and by Indigenous communities should examine how to support equity ownership by examining the findings of the 41 projects controlled by Indigenous communities and increased attention to Métis and Inuit communities.
... Hydro continues to grow past 2030 and reaches 10,000 MW by 2050, well under the estimated developable potential for hydropower in Alberta of~11-19 GW(Barrington-Leigh & Ouliaris, 2017;The Pembina Institute, 2009;Waterpower Canada, 2020;Hatch, 2010). NGCC, NGSC, and wind make up the remaining requirements. ...
This research assesses the transition of a fossil fuel-based electricity production jurisdiction to a renewable-based electricity jurisdiction through an extensive scenario analysis. This fills a knowledge gap where a wide-range of fossil-to-renewable electricity generation pathways is compared within a single analysis framework. To conduct this study, a novel data-intensive electricity system model was developed with the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system and applied to evaluate alternative electricity generation mix scenarios to the year 2050. A case study for Alberta, a fossil fuels-based province in Canada, was conducted. A total of 382 scenarios were analyzed considering different renewable pathways and varying key uncertain future conditions. The greenhouse gas emission abatement and marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs of each scenario were evaluated and compared. Several renewable-based scenarios resulted in significant greenhouse gas abatement at lower costs than the fossil-fuel based business-as-usual scenario. The maximum greenhouse gas abatement possible at a net cost reduction compared to the business-as-usual scenario was found through a specific combination of wind, hydro, and solar power which resulted in over a 90% reduction from 2005 emission levels at −$1.8/t of carbon dioxide equivalent abated. The results of this study provide policy insight for jurisdictions transitioning away from fossil fuel-based electricity to renewables.
... Atlantic Canada was included in one of only 5 regions considered to have strong wind power potential. A recent analysis of renewable energy potential in Canada undertaken by Barrington-Leigh and Ouliaris (2017) showed that offshore wind (500 TWh/a) is only second to onshore wind in potential resource, with the ability to account for 21% of Canadian energy demand in 2011. This was despite arguably overly restrictive conditions for establishment of a modern OWF (e.g. a 30 m water depth restriction). ...
The Quaternary history of the Atlantic Canadian inner shelf shares some similarities with the North Sea and northern United States of America (US) Atlantic coast, with the influence of large-scale glaciation and subsequent sea level transgression being the main drivers of seafloor morphology, sedimentology, and uppermost stratigraphy. The geology of the inner shelf, generally confined to 100 m water depth for this study, is an important constraint on the development of offshore renewables, in particular wind energy. Offshore wind has seen rapid growth, particularly in Europe and Asia, where the industry has now experienced decades of production. In the US, one small-scale production farm and many hundreds of MW are in the production pipeline. In contrast, offshore wind in Canada, despite onshore installed wind capacity that ranks highly globally, lacks any operating turbines and there are no plans for development in the wind resource-rich Atlantic Canadian region. In this study, the geological constraints on offshore wind in Atlantic Canada are explored. Generally, the available offshore wind resource is high, and thus the main geophysical constraint on the development of offshore wind energy converters is the inner shelf geology. Several sites with available high-resolution geophysical data are selected for in-depth analysis and comparison with production and planned offshore wind farm sites found elsewhere. In general, a lack of sufficiently thick Quaternary sedimentation—necessary for the most common bottom-fixed foundations for wind turbines—will make developing offshore wind in Atlantic Canada challenging when compared with North Sea and US Atlantic Coast locations. A few locations may be suitable geologically, such as Sable Island Bank in Nova Scotia (thick package of sands), Northumberland Strait between Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia (shallow firm seabed and sandbanks), Baie des Chaleurs in New Brunswick/Québec (thick, low relief fine sediments), and St. George's Bay, Newfoundland (shallow, postglacially modified moraine).
... Canada is a large country with a sparse and heterogeneously distributed population. Canada's renewable resources can provide enough energy to meet the country's current energy demand, but the concentration of industries and residences in the southern part of the country means that the spatial dispersion of power demand is asymmetrical across the country's various provinces (Barrington-Leigh & Ouliaris, 2017). Significant renewable energy capacity has already been developed in Canada, especially in the form of hydropower generation, which had reached a total capacity of more than 80 000 MW in 2017. ...
Technical Report produces as part of the AURESII project:
http://aures2project.eu/2020/02/05/auctions-for-the-support-of-renewable-energy-in-alberta-canada/
... With respect to the wind speed profile, the monthly average meteorological wind data was estimated at an anemometer height of 50 m above the surface of the earth. As Barrington-Leigh and Ouliaris pointed in their study [45], although some parts of Quebec province have good potential for onshore wind power developments, Montreal, with an annual average wind speed of 4.29 m/s, does not present the ideal weather condition for generating electricity from wind. Nevertheless, there are still good chances of covering the irradiance deficiency in cold seasons since the lowest wind speed occurs in summer and highest in winter, while, from May to September, when the GHI is relatively high, the wind speed is below average. ...
Although renewable technologies are progressing fast, there are still challenges such as the reliability and availability of renewable energy sources and their cost issues due to capital intensity that hinder their broad adoption. This research aims at developing a configuration-sizing approach to enhance the cost efficiency and sourcing reliability of renewable energies integrated in microgrids. To achieve this goal, various technologies were considered, such as solar PV, wind turbines, converters, and batteries for system configuration with minimization of net present cost (NPC) as the objective. Grid connection scenarios with up to 100% renewable contribution were analyzed. The results show that the integration of renewable technologies with some grid backup could reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) to about half of the price of the electricity that the university purchases from the grid. Also, different kinds of solar tracker systems were studied. The outcome shows that by using a vertical axis solar tracker, the LCOE of the system could be reduced by more than 50 percent. This research can help the decision-maker to opt for the best scenarios for generating reliable and cost-efficient electricity.
... The transition to a larger share of RE also requires a spatial reorganization of our energy systems, cityscapes and landscapes [6,[33][34][35]. The decentralization of RE systems will not be evenly distributed [33,34] there will be different technologies and combinations for different contexts [6,36], and this uneven distribution will coincide with different populations, with a range of socioeconomic statuses, cultures, local politics and local economic development patterns, in different ways [23] . ...
The recast of the European Union Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) entered into force in December 2018, followed by the Internal Electricity Market Directive (IEMD) and Regulation (IEMR) as part of the Clean Energy for all Europeans Package. The RED II, that the 28 Member States have until June 2021 to transpose into national law, defines “Renewable Energy Communities” (RECs), introduces a governance model for them and the possibility of energy sharing within the REC. It also provides an “enabling framework” to put RECs on equal footing with other market players and to promote and facilitate their development.
This article defines "renewable energy clusters" that are comprised of complementarity of different energy sources, flexibility, interconnectivity of different actors and bi-directionality of energy flows. We argue that RECs and RE clusters are socio-technical mirrors of the same concept, necessary in a renewable energy transition. To test how these new rules will fare in practice, drawing on a secondary dataset of 67 best-practice cases of consumer (co-)ownership from 18 countries, each project is assessed using the criteria of cluster potential, and for the extent that they meet the RED II governance requirements of heterogeneity of members and of ownership structure. Nine cases were identified as having cluster potential all of which were in rural areas. Of these, five projects were found to be both RECs and RE clusters. The absence of the governance and heterogeneity criteria is observed in projects that fall short of the cluster elements of flexibility, bi-directionality and interconnectivity, while cluster elements occur where the governance and heterogeneity criteria are met. When transposing the new rules into national law we recommend careful attention to encourage complementarity of renewables, RECs in urban contexts and “regulatory sandboxes” for experimentation to find the range of optimal preferential conditions of the “enabling framework”.
... Sources such as wind, biomass, solar, geothermal, hydro, and ocean energy are widely used for electricity production. Until now, hydropower and biomass have contributed an enormous portion of kWh production in most Canadian provinces ( Barrington-Leigh & Ouliaris, 2017). Canada. ...
Energy is an indispensable prerequisite for performing work. The availability of
energy is an important driver for economic prosperity. The global industrial
revolution has contributed to huge developments with social implications and
economic growth. For decades, coal, oil, and natural gas have been the energy
resources provisioned as fuels for energy. The crude price of fossil fuels today
might cause difficulties in meeting rising demand in coming years while the cost
of exploiting them will become higher as resources are depleted and the cost to
extract them increases (Ritchie and Roser, 2018) (Hasanuzzaman et al., 2012).
Furthermore, issues regarding the global climate have led to increased attention
by many countries on policy research especially regarding the aspects of energy
sustainability and uses of natural resources (Kester, Moyer, & Song, 2015).
Energy issues and their respective research are imperative in developing
world and social sciences (Sovacool, 2014). Government at its level must
intervene and regulate policies when needed based on valid and reliable
evidence obtained from current economic conditions, energy activities and
issues, and public and private sector feedback. The Conference of the Parties
climate summit agreement (COP21) has turned the energy policy more
relevant and well diffusion on its goals through it global scale of policy
understanding (Kinley, 2017).
The chapter is divided into two main sections. First, the evaluation of
energy policy is reviewed generally based on the dissemination of global
energy policy mainly in America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and Africa. In the
section thereafter, the roles of government at the federal level in helping
energy policy to flourish is discussed, including several instruments such as
subsidies, financial incentives, and tax exemptions. This research offers
holistic insights into designing energy policy together with its structure and
goals.
... Subsequently, for building a solid energy supply at moderate cost, increase access sustainably to present-day energy advances as well as services for lower-salary householders and social offices, adopt to a progressive change from customary to advanced energy, guarantee green sustainability and production of unpolluted energy, a hybrid microgrid sustainable power system has turned into an appealing solution as it is viewed as favourable for the generation of clean energy due to not delivering carbon dioxide alongside other ozone depleting substances to the air that contribute to global warming. It should be noted however that as a result of its erratic and most prominent reliance on environmental situations, energy storage systems should be utilised to guarantee that the load is met consistently [3]. ...
This paper's primary objective constitutes addressing accessibility to modern energy as well as examining alternatives for diminishing petroleum derivative independency upon production of electricity for both underserved communities and remote northern populaces that are influenced by the negative effects of climatic changes heavily; an example here is Ontario, Canada's Red Lake, which is Canadian isolated northern populations' part. Accordingly, the execution of this microgrid advances improved well-being care as well as instruction while ensuring the green ecological factor in order to battle conditions of global warming within Ontario's energy sector. Additionally, the electrification is needed to support the isolated communities as well as the nation to accomplish increasingly swift viable and societal goals. This investigation is carried out utilising the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables tool referred to as HOMER. Various simulations with different setups were examined. It has been discovered that the microgrid with the utilisation of numerous sustainable power sources blend delivers an optimum result. Keywords Microgrid, hybrid renewable energy system, energy storage system, wind power; hydroelectric power, northern remote community, HOMER.
Keywords: Microgrid, hybrid renewable energy system, energy storage system, wind power; hydroelectric power, northern remote community, HOMER.
... In addition, it ranks as the world's third and fifth country by hydroelectricity and biofuels, respectively [26]. Currently, hydroelectricity, biomass, wind, and solar contribute significantly to energy production in Canada [27]. Canada also has high potential for solar energy use and, since 2007, there have been an estimated 544000 m 2 of solar collectors installed in this country [28]. ...
Canadian researchers are now trying to exploit much more energy from solar sources, hydropower, wind, and biomass. Given the fact that reducing the carbon pollutant level is a political priority in Canada, this paper studies the feasibility of providing sanitary hot water and space heating demands of a four-member family in 10 provinces in this country. The feasibility analysis was performed by T*SOL Pro 5.5 software, and radiation data were obtained by MeteoSyn software. Results indicated that the most suitable station in terms of using solar water heater was Regina, which supplied 35 % of the total heat load for space heating and sanitary hot water purposes. This accounted for 5074 kWh of heat for space heating (25 % of demand) and 3112 kWh energy for sanitary hot water (94 % of demand) using a 40 m 2 solar collector. In addition, results are indicative of an annual amount of saving up to 2080 kg of CO2 in the Regina station and an annual reduction of 984 m 3 in natural gas for this station. In conclusion, Canada has a potentially alluring market to utilize solar water heaters for providing sanitary hot water for the residential sector.
... Large-scale wind farms have great potential in the boreal zone, especially with the ability to couple wind and solar and improved battery storage (Sandhu and Mahesh, 2016;Barrington-Leigh and Ouliaris 2017;Mercer et al. 2017). Therefore, innovation in wind energy is currently focused on developing hybrid wind-hydrogen and wind-hydrogen-diesel energy systems (NRCAN 2016g). ...
Much of Canada’s industrial sector is driven by natural resources and relies heavily on provisioning services supplied by the boreal zone. However, the sometimes intensive processes used by resource-based industries and their associated infrastructure have significantly altered the region, creating concerns over the future socio-ecological health of the boreal zone. Addressing these concerns will require industries reliant on natural resources from the boreal zone to innovate their processes, management, and infrastructure to improve extraction efficiency while contributing to society’s increasing expectations related to sustainability. Here, we explore past, current, and future trends in industrial innovation and infrastructure in the boreal zone for forestry, mining, pulp and paper, oil and gas, and renewable sources of power generation. We assess the role of innovation on the future socio-ecological state of the boreal zone by considering interactions between innovation in industry and infrastructure and other key drivers of change in the boreal, such as atmospheric changes, changing demands for nonprovisioning and provisioning ecosystem services, governance, and demographics and social values. We present future scenarios highlighting three divergent trajectories of change in boreal ecosystems based on past and current states of innovation in industry and infrastructure. We suggest that minimizing impacts of natural resource extraction activities in the boreal zone will only be possible through innovation directly focused on reducing the human footprint on the landscape. Innovation in the information technology sector related to process, management, and end products within these industries and placing greater emphasis on cross-sectoral collaboration will be key to achieving this goal.
... At the national level, Canada is among the world's top energy users mainly due to a heavy reliance on energy-intensive industries, harsh cli- mate, vast geography, low population density, as well as a high standard of living ( Bagheri et al., 2018;OCDE, 2016). Meanwhile, Canada is among the world's most reliable energy producers owning vast and diverse re- sources such as oil and gas, coal, hydropower, biomass, solar, geothermal, wind, marine and nuclear (Barrington-Leigh and Ouliaris, 2017;World Energy Investment, 2017). Thus, environmentally sustainable use and supply of energy resources are vital to facilitating Canada's economic and employment growth while meeting its emission reduction targets. ...
Incorporating socioeconomic and environmental considerations into energy decisions is necessary when tackling climate change and accelerating green growth. In this work, we propose a novel extension of the multi-factor energy input-output model to support evidence-informed energy policy-making and green growth planning through the introduction of eight different multipliers and two green growth indexes. We demonstrate the approach through application at the national scale in Canada. In particular, we quantitatively assess the extent to which changes in final demand impact the domestic and imported primary (and renewable) energy flows, CO2 emissions, economic expansion, and energy job earnings. The results point to a potential path of green growth in Canada, prioritizing activities that generate economic and job growth at minimal environmental pressure (i.e., fewer CO2 emissions). Economic activities that are critical for stimulating green growth in the short to medium run are identified, and recommendations are made regarding a longer structural change path for improving the supply chains of other economic activities. This work provides insights to decision-makers seeking strategies (e.g., policy reforms or targeted public expenditure strategies) to accelerate green growth planning on a national scale.
... Hence, for insuring a reliable supply of energy at affordable price, sustainably increase access to modern energy technologies and services for lower-income householders, social facilities, gradual shift from traditional to modern energy, ensure environmental sustainability and clean energy production, a hybrid microgrid renewable energy based power systems has become an attractive since they are favoured for clean energy production as they do not produce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to the global warming. However, due to their unpredictable and greatest dependency on environment conditions, energy storages need to be used to ensure that the load is met at all times [6]. ...
The main objective of this paper is to address access to modern energy and to examine options for reducing fossil fuel independency on electricity generation for the underserved
communities, people living in poverty or at a subsistence level or for the remote northern populations, who are excessively affected by the negative impacts of climate change like Red Lake in Ontario, Canada, part of Canadian remote northern communities. Therefore, the implementation of this microgrid promotes better health care and education, ensures
environmental sustainability so as to combat global warming conditions in the energy sector in Ontario. In addition, the electrification is expected to help the remote communities and the country to achieve more rapid social and economic objectives.
This study is performed using the Micropower optimization modelling simulator called HOMER. Different case studies with various configurations have been analysed. It has been found that the microgrid with the use of multiple renewable energy sources mixture provides the optimal solution.
... Onshore and offshore wind powers are one of the fastest growing sources of electricity generation in the world. By 2015, this growth has reached almost 23 percent in Canada, representing more than 3 billion dollars in investments and 10500 new jobs [1]. ...
As a critical component, failures of high-speed shaft bearing in wind turbines cause the unplanned stoppage of electrical energy production. Investigations related to naturally progressed defects of high-speed shaft bearings are relatively scarce and the online assessment in damage severities is rarely available in the literature. In this sense, this paper presents a new online vibration-based diagnosis method for wind turbine high-speed bearing monitoring. The adaptive resonance theory 2 (ART2) is proposed for an unsupervised classification of the extracted features. The Randall model is adapted considering the geometry of the tested bearing to train the ART2 in the offline step. In fact, the time domain, the frequency domain, and the time-frequency domain are investigated for a better bearing fault characterization. Indeed, the use of real measured data from a wind turbine drivetrain proves that the proposed data-driven approach is suitable for wind turbine bearings online condition monitoring even under real experimental conditions. This method reveals a better generalization capability compared to previous works even with noisy measurements.
... For example, Fisher et al. (2009) have calculated that on an annual basis, NL is theoretically capable of producing 117 times the amount of its 2006 electricity demand through wind energy. Barrington-Leigh and Ouliaris (2017) have concluded that " [NL] could generate almost 20% of Canada's 2010 energy demand by making use of only 25% of its high potential [wind development] area" (p. 21). ...
Despite having amongst the strongest potential for wind energy development (WED) of any jurisdiction in North America, the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) remains dependent on fossil fuels for economic activity, government revenue, as well as electricity generation. The study is a comprehensive assessment of barriers to renewable energy development in NL, with a focus on wind energy. While NL is chosen as the primary case study, the study's theoretical breadth provides insights for other renewable energy (RE) development and policy contexts as well. Seventeen semi-structured expert interviews were conducted with respondents from academia, community groups, government, and the private sector. An analytical framework was employed and directed content analysis was utilized. A large majority of expert respondents (65%) classified the current state of WED in the province as ‘unfavourable’. In total, 19 unique barriers were identified; the most significant barriers to WED were found to be political (71% of respondents), economic (65%), as well as related to lack of knowledge and agreement (53 and 41%, respectively). The study demonstrates that there is no single barrier to the development of RE sources; as such, comprehensive policy solutions comprised of financial, educational, legislative, and consultative components are required.
This study uses data from a vignette experiment (n = 401) of large-scale agricultural landowners in western Canada to quantify attributes that enhance acceptance of wind farms on their land or in their municipality. The analysis addresses the role of community relationships and procedural fairness in the development of wind power. Random effects models indicate that landowners are more accepting of wind power if such projects include local or cooperative ownership , compensation payments to neighboring landowners, and community involvement in the development process. Results suggest that perceived injustices could be lessened if fairness considerations extended beyond monetary gain. (JEL Q15, Q42)
Renewable energy is required in a transition to reduce carbon intensive energy and mitigate climate disruption. Decentralized renewable energy systems are more resilient to environmental hazards than centralized sources of power. When two or more variable renewable energy sources (VRES) are combined and asynchronous, the resulting complementarity can smooth out the combined power production. Complementarity among renewable sources can be achieved among multiple actors as producers or prosumers, as well as increasing engagement in demand side management and other flexibility measures. Complementarity is also spatially dependent, as renewable sources, and their patterns of asynchronicity vary in space, which impacts the potential actors who can harness these resources. The technical and social science literature increasingly acknowledges the importance of multi-renewable energy sources and multi-actor, and multi-end use energy systems analysis as a method of optimization. However, what is unclear in the social science literature, at multiple scales (from a regional grid to a localized grid, or a region to local community or neighborhood), is how complementarity can be encouraged or governed. In governance, this is a collective problem, whether governed by markets or by communities by hybrid democratic processes. This chapter outlines the important concepts to characterize and address how to govern complementarity among multiple actors at multiple scales of decision making.
Electrolytic hydrogen produced from wind and solar energy is considered a long-term option for multi-sectoral decarbonization. The study objective is to develop a framework for assessing country-level hydrogen technical potential from wind and solar energy. We apply locational suitability and zonal statistical analyses methods in a geographic information system-based environment to derive granular insights on non-captive technically exploitable hydrogen potential in high-resource locations. Seven setback factors were considered for locational suitability, and integrated with modules developed for evaluating the wind and solar resource penetration from open-source theoretical renewable resource geospatial data and electricity-to-hydrogen conversion analyses. The technique applied in this study would be a relevant contribution to determining national and regional-wide electrolytic hydrogen production potentials in other jurisdictions with requisite adjustments to data and technical constraints. The results from the case study country, Canada – a major hydrogen-producing country – show that the technical hydrogen potentials from wind and solar energy are approximately 1,897 and 448 million metric tonnes per year, respectively, at least 6.3 times greater than global hydrogen demand in 2019. When we integrated locational data on enabling infrastructure, we discovered that the lack of access to power transmission lines in low-population-density areas of the country significantly reduces the exploitable wind- and solar-based hydrogen potential by over 80% and 6%, respectively. The findings of this study show that in the absence of spatial data on infrastructural constraints, the exploitable hydrogen potential in a jurisdiction can be overestimated, leading to improper guidance for policy and decision-makers.
This paper uses the TRNSYS software to investigate the hourly energy generation potential, storage, and consumption via an electrolyzer and a fuel cell in the Canadian city of Saskatoon, which is a region with high solar and wind energy potential. For this purpose, a location with an area of 10,000 m² was considered, in which the use of solar panels and vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) were simulated. In the simulation, the solar panels were placed at specific distances, and the energy generation capacity, amount of produced hydrogen, and the energy available from the fuel cell were examined hourly and compared to the case with wind turbines placed at standard distances. The results indicated energy generation capacities of 1,966,084 kWh and 75,900 kWh for the solar panels and the wind turbines, respectively, showing the high potential of solar panels compared to wind turbines. Moreover, the fuel cells in the solar and wind systems can produce 733,077 kWh and 22,629 kWh of energy per year, respectively, if they store all of the received energy in the form of hydrogen. Finally, the hourly rates of hydrogen production by the solar and wind systems were reported.
Competing land-use demands associated with planning for renewables is resulting in growing social and political challenges. Spatial decision-support tools are being developed and applied to tackle some of these challenges by facilitating systematic identification of suitable development sites based on technical, environmental and socio-economic criteria. Nevertheless, decision-support tools are often developed with limited input from stakeholders affecting participative and accountable planning and decision-making. This paper aims to address this shortcoming and foster greater transparency in the development of support tools for renewable energy planning, and thus in siting decisions. It present and discusses a stakeholder-driven approach to the co-creation of an online decision-support tool that attends to planning policy, technical considerations, environmental protection and social concerns influencing renewable energy planning decisions in Ireland. This bottom-up approach, easily transferable to other jurisdictions, fosters proactive expert input, awareness raising and greater comprehensibility and acceptance of siting decisions. It also enables developing an interface that responds to users’ needs. The paper contributes to advancing renewable energy planning practice through effective and meaningful stakeholder engagement that supports transparent and accountable decisions from the outset. It also highlights ongoing data and technological shortcomings affecting the integration and operationalisation of stakeholders demands and needs, which signal priority areas of action to further advance the development of renewable energy decision-support tools.
Paper presents a regionally segregated overview of the globally distributed operational Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants. A holistic approach was followed by dividing the global map into 5 different regions (Americas, Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia) by covering 112 currently operational CSP plants. The objective of the research methodology used is to enable concerned regional developers to study the local trend followed in brief and compare the same with the trend followed in other regions. Region 3 (Europe) generates 6338.33 GWh/yr of electricity and accommodates more than 50% of globally operational CSP plants. Parabolic trough/Thermal oil is the most preferred combination of CSP technology/Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF) and is used in 46 plants globally. Region 5 (Australia) produces the lowest annual electricity generation of 3900 MWh/yr but still holds great potential for numerous upcoming plants. Annual electricity generation of plants when plotted with area occupied displayed a linear trend for all the regions. Linear pattern observed also included 2–3 outliers indicating significant under or over performance of specific sites. Regional distribution enables a modular study and analysis, aiding future research and development in solar thermal energy. Accumulated information and data presented serve as a brief guide reducing the gap between social structures and latest technological advancements.
This work projects future residential electricity demand derived from cities and municipalities’ population and residential land-use projections. Starting from national-level energy intensity data, we derived statistically downscaled residential electricity consumption with the aim to disaggregate residential electricity at the local administrative unit level for all EU member states in the year 2050. The intensity in 2050 is obtained from population density that, in turn, depends on the evolution of population and residential land-use. Residential land-use is projected to 2050 according to a model linked to population trajectories at the LAU level via the share-of-growth method. Finally, country-level intensity multiplied by the projected value of LAU residential area returns the electricity demand for every LAU. The results suggest that the amount of electricity required by cities depends on their land-use patterns, but with an evident between-and-within-country heterogeneity. The national average temperature does not provide significant effects over the evolution of electricity demand, highlighting the need for more detailed climate-related variables. This evidence poses significant challenges for the planning of future cities because it points out how the current patterns of land-use will need to be properly categorized with respect to the development of future electricity requirements.
In several countries, electricity systems are under strong decarbonization pressure. In particular, the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario as well as the states of the northeastern United States have committed to cut their greenhouse emissions by more than 70% (with respect to emission levels of 1990). Increased collaboration and integration between jurisdictions could decrease such decarbonization costs, especially when important hydropower resources are available.
Using a capacity expansion and dispatch model of the Northeastern North American electricity sector, we analyze the impact of emission reduction targets, load levels and availability of power technologies in a range of scenarios, in order to assess the benefits of regional cooperation. Our results show that for deep decarbonization, the electricity system costs can be significantly reduced through integration, especially by adding more interconnection capacity. These costs savings and benefits are however not evenly allocated between jurisdictions, creating potentially difficult collaboration incentives.
The generation of electricity can have major environmental impacts not only in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also in terms of water use. There has been limited integrated assessment of the environmental footprints of deep decarbonization of electricity generation. This research develops an integrated approach to evaluate the GHG emission mitigation, water footprints, and marginal abatement costs of electricity generation decarbonization pathways. The decarbonization of Canada’s electricity sector was used as a case study. A Long-range Energy Alternative Planning model of the electricity generation sector was developed to determine future regional electricity generation technology mixes. A Water Evaluation and Planning model was also developed for the sector considering 530 power plants, 156 electricity generation water demand sites, and 74 major rivers. The energy and water-use models were integrated, and two scenarios were evaluated for a planning horizon of 2019–2050 using this integrated framework. The first scenario was based on current policy trajectories and the second was developed with a deep electricity decarbonization target of 100%. In the current policy scenario, water consumption and GHG emissions increased 22% and decreased 49%, respectively, by 2050 from 2019. The fully decarbonized scenario resulted in water consumption savings and negative marginal GHG abatement costs. The results quantify the co-benefits of decarbonizing electricity systems and show that transitioning toward renewables can reduce GHG emissions, water consumption, and system costs. These results may be important for policy development at the regional and national levels as well as internationally for jurisdictions looking to transition to carbon-free electricity.
Hydropower accounts for approximately 60% of electricity generation in Canada, with growth expected in the coming decades as part of renewable energy transitions; however, frequent cost overruns threaten the viability of this growth. Using the integrated assessment model GCAM, we develop an endogenous representation of hydropower for Canada that accounts for market dynamics, thus permitting analysis of hydropower competition with other electricity generation technologies, both with and without cost overruns. Results show that modelling hydropower resources endogenously increases Canadian hydropower deployment relative to an assumption of fixed hydropower production, from 417 to 495 TWh annually by 2050. In scenarios that apply cost overruns at historical levels, hydropower loses market share to more easily scalable technologies like wind power. When including high cost overrun assumptions, the model determines that hydropower falls from about 73% to 65% of Canadian electricity generation by 2050, while wind power increases from about 8% to 11%. Countries may be better able to achieve electrification and renewable energy targets at lower cost by avoiding large-scale, overrun-prone hydropower and nuclear generation projects. Model results support that cost overruns are important considerations for policy decisions related to electricity sector development in Canada and elsewhere.
Due to the gradual depletion of fossil energy and the climate change, many industrialized countries are pursuing a sustainable energy transition, however they choose different pathways. There are such issues on the process of energy transition as the high renewable energy cost and the increase of carbon emissions. In order to ensure the smooth process of energy transition, governments need to draw energy development experience from each other to jointly promote the global energy transition. At the beginning, the recent situations from both energy economy and policy are described in this article with respect to some typical industrialized countries (the G7 countries and China). And then to make comparative analysis more logical, a novel conceptual model ‐ Institution‐Economy‐Technology‐Behavior framework is adopted. Based on this new model, this article makes a comprehensive analysis and discussion on the energy transition of each country. The common points and the differences of energy transition in different countries are summarized to grasp the driven forces of energy transition. And a series of development proposals from the aspects of system, economy, technology and behavior are made to overcome the obstacles of energy transition, ensure the smooth progress of energy transition, and achieve sustainable development. A novel conceptual model ‐ Institution‐Economy‐Technology‐Behavior framework is adopted to analyze the energy transition. And the common points and the differences of energy transition in different countries are summarized to grasp the driven forces of energy transition. In order to solve many obstacles in energy transition, it is necessary for countries to draw experience from each other to jointly promote the energy transition.
Energy has been the cornerstone for all the technological advancements that are happening in the world. The need for energy at present is great than ever before and it is foreseen to rise in the future, as a result, it triggered us to look into zero-emission alternatives i.e. renewables to meet our energy demand. Energy demand surge is not the only cause, rising fossil fuel prices and global warming are among the major factor for such a verdict. Governments of nearly all the nation are taking the necessary measures that will result in a greater good. Carbon neutralization is a feat that every nation must attain to ensure sustainable global development, renewables prove to be the best tool to achieve it. The scope of the study is to analyse both the drivers and de-motivators for renewable energy development for the study nations including India, China, Iceland, Sweden, and the US are taken into account, each country has its unique strongholds in renewable energy genesis. This work will give a descriptive overview of the country’s renewable assets and its green future by means of a SWOT analysis where each country will be assessed based on the four parameters namely Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats for renewable resources. This study has been carried out to access each country potential for renewable energy generation. The motive for selecting these countries is that, these countries show promising outcomes to the leap towards green energy generation and utilization. Their positive results are due to various factors that will be analysed in this work. Additionally an arithmetic based approach was formulated to identify which of the countries will be able to attain Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7).
In seeking to appease both environmentalists and proponents of Alberta’s oil and gas sector, the Trudeau government’s current approach to combined economic development and climate mitigation is fundamentally flawed. This essay advocates a new strategy aligned with proposals for a Green New Deal—major public investments in the communities hit hardest by Alberta’s economic downturn, aiming to develop the province’s low-carbon resources and create green jobs, yet made expressly on the condition of stranding fossil fuels.
Electricity generation using solar photovoltaic (PV) can be considered as one of the key low-emission energy technologies that reduce building net operational level emissions compared to the fossil fuels-based energies. Small-scale grid-tie solar (PV) systems are being widely used in many parts of the world. These systems would be benefitted to the investors by reducing household level operational GHG emissions and securing low energy prices for long-term. Solar (PV)-based electricity generation in Canada can be improved immensely to achieve local emission targets while securing healthier energy rates for the consumers. However, there is a lack of knowledge on life cycle impacts of solar (PV)-based electricity generation in single-family detached households in Canadian regions with low-emission grid electricity. The objective of this study is to conduct an investigation to obtain the feasibility of small-scale solar (PV) systems for households in South British Columbia mountain climate region, Canada using life cycle thinking approach. The effect of domestic activities and transportation was used to identify the net energy use of the household throughout its entire life. The life cycle impact assessment and the life cycle cost assessment results were used to compare the impacts of different household alternatives. The results of this study showed that households with solar (PV) systems and electric transportation facilities indicated comparatively lower environmental impacts and higher long-term financial benefits. However, the upfront costs of households with solar systems are relatively high which may have adverse effects on the purchasing decisions. The short-term use of solar (PV) systems may result in higher cost and environmental impacts.
Electricity generation using solar photovoltaic (PV) can be considered as one of the key low-emission energy technologies that reduce building net operational level emissions compared to the fossil fuels-based energies. Small-scale grid-tie solar (PV) systems are being widely used in many parts of the world. These systems would be benefitted to the investors by reducing household level operational GHG emissions and securing low energy prices for long-term. Solar (PV)-based electricity generation in Canada can be improved immensely to achieve local emission targets while securing healthier energy rates for the consumers. However, there is a lack of knowledge on life cycle impacts of solar (PV)-based electricity generation in single-family detached households in Canadian regions with low-emission grid electricity. The objective of this study is to conduct an investigation to obtain the feasibility of small-scale solar (PV) systems for households in South British Columbia mountain climate region, Canada using life cycle thinking approach. The effect of domestic activities and transportation was used to identify the net energy use of the household throughout its entire life. The life cycle impact assessment and the life cycle cost assessment results were used to compare the impacts of different household alternatives. The results of this study showed that households with solar (PV) systems and electric transportation facilities indicated comparatively lower environmental impacts and higher long-term financial benefits. However, the upfront costs of households with solar systems are relatively high which may have adverse effects on the purchasing decisions. The short-term use of solar (PV) systems may result in higher cost and environmental impacts.
Urban electrification with renewables is a crucial strategy for achieving low-carbon and climate-resilient communities. Given the different types of power customers (e.g., residential, commercial and industrial), this work develops a systematic and straightforward framework for the optimal planning of urban solar/wind/biomass (/natural gas) systems at neighbourhood scale using the actual real-time hourly electric loads. In achieving this objective, we defined three power scenarios (i) 100% natural gas; (ii) natural gas and renewables; (iii) 100% renewables (e.g., solar/wind/biomass) and identified the hybrid systems with the least NPC for each of the three power scenarios. Our results indicate that providing per kilowatt-hour renewable electricity to the industrial sector (0.385 USD/kWh) costs 4% less than the commercial (0.399 USD/kWh) and about 5% less than the residential sector (0.418 USD/kWh) at neighbourhood scales. The more significant cost of electricity (COE) of the residential system is primarily due to the greater batteries to solar PV fractions. Also, COE of solar/wind/biomass plant showed to be three times less than the equivalent solar/wind power system. Likewise, by integrating a low-emission natural gas (NG) generator to the hybrid solar/wind/biomass plant, the system's COE reduced by 30% while resulting in close to three order-of-magnitude higher annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To address the model accuracy concerning the uncertainty and variations associated with input variables, we further conducted the sensitivity analysis of the systems’ COE address the model accuracy concerning the uncertainty and variations associated with input variables by changes in the discount rate and capital cost of the PV panels and batteries. As a result, systems’ COE was detected to be more sensitive to the capital cost of batteries than solar panels. This study can help decision-makers in developing more effective policies and mechanisms to support the urban hybrid renewable energy systems.
The Canadian boreal zone provides extractive goods and services (provisioning ecosystem services (PrES)) to domestic and global markets and makes a significant contribution to the Canadian economy. The intensity and location of these extractive activities, however, may positively or negatively affect the availability of other benefits that the Canadian and global society receive from the boreal. Where PrES compete, managing these activities along with their impacts to boreal ecosystems becomes a balancing act between the need for resource extraction and the continued availability of the other benefits from ecosystems. Management measures and policies are more likely to succeed if they are designed with foresight, which means accounting for how demand, a key driver of change in the boreal, may change in the future. To help this process, we present three divergent, yet plausible future scenarios based on the analysis of: (i) the capacity of the boreal to provide wood products, fossil fuels, metals and minerals, and hydropower and other renewables; (ii) past trends (1985–2015) and key events in the demand for these PrES; (iii) the interaction of demand for PrES with other drivers of change to the boreal zone; and (iv) the synergies and trade-offs between PrES. We find that historically and currently the capacity of the boreal to provide these PrES exceeds the amount currently supplied. However, the capacity of different PrES and location of extractive activities are spatially dispersed creating a spatial and temporal patchwork of associated risks to local ecosystem integrity and the supply of non-PrES. In addition, these scenarios suggest that the future of boreal PrES is very uncertain and highly dependent on how other drivers of change (namely governance and geopolitics, societal values and climate change) play out in the future. Given the spatial complexity, we find that the cumulative effect of these drivers (e.g., climate change) will determine what paths unfold for different areas of the boreal, and we conclude that careful consideration and planning must be given to ensure that the balance between PrES and non-PrES is maintained.
Energy system planning is a complex problem, where a number of conflicting priorities need to be considered with regards to energy use, environment and socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder requirements. When selecting the supply sources for a net-zero community energy system, renewable energy (RE) technologies need to be evaluated and compared based on their performance under the above aspects. Multi-attribute decision making (MADM) techniques can be used to compare and select RE alternatives, based on the decision makers' requirements and priorities. In this study, selection of RE technologies for a net-zero community energy system is explored within the context of British Columbia, Canada. Indicators were developed to represent performance criteria for assessing technologies in community energy systems under technical, economic, environmental, and social categories. Life cycle impact assessment and life cycle cost data were used to estimate the environmental and economic performance indicator values, respectively. Benchmarks defined through critical literature review were used to screen and select the most suitable technologies, filtering out the ones with unsatisfactory performance levels. The performance scores for the RE technologies under the defined indicators on technical, environmental, economic, and social criteria were analysed through fuzzy TOPSIS method. The RE alternatives were thus ranked based on their overall performance under three decision scenarios which reflect different priorities in community-level infrastructure planning. The findings of the study can assist community developers and decision makers in selecting the most suitable energy technologies for net-zero energy systems at community level.
The demand for efficient and cost-effective renewable energy is increasing as traditional sources of energy such as oil, coal, and natural gas, can no longer satisfy growing global energy demands. Among renewable energies, wind energy is the most prominent due to its low, manageable impacts on the local environment. Based on meteorological data from 2006 to 2014 and multi-source satellite data (i.e., Advanced Scatterometer, Quick Scatterometer, and Windsat) from 1999 to 2015, an assessment of the onshore and offshore wind energy potential in Jiangsu Province was performed by calculating the average wind speed, average wind direction, wind power density, and annual energy production (AEP). Results show that Jiangsu has abundant wind energy resources, which increase from inland to coastal areas. In onshore areas, wind power density is predominantly less than 200 W/m², while in offshore areas, wind power density is concentrates in the range of 328–500 W/m². Onshore areas comprise more than 13,573.24 km², mainly located in eastern coastal regions with good wind farm potential. The total wind power capacity in onshore areas could be as much as 2.06 x 10⁵ GWh. Meanwhile, offshore wind power generation in Jiangsu Province is calculated to reach 2 x 10⁶ GWh, which is approximately four times the electricity demand of the entire Jiangsu Province. This study validates the effective application of Advanced Scatterometer, Quick Scatterometer, and Windsat data to coastal wind energy monitoring in Jiangsu. Moreover, the methodology used in this study can be effectively applied to other similar coastal zones.
This perspective documents current thinking around climate actions in Canada by synthesizing scholarly proposals made by Sustainable Canada Dialogues (SCD), an informal network of scholars from all 10 provinces, and by reviewing responses from civil society representatives to the scholars’ proposals. Motivated by Canada’s recent history of repeatedly missing its emissions reduction targets and failing to produce a coherent plan to address climate change, SCD mobilized more than 60 scholars to identify possible pathways towards a low-carbon economy and sustainable society and invited civil society to comment on the proposed solutions. This perspective illustrates a range of Canadian ideas coming from many sectors of society and a wealth of existing inspiring initiatives. Solutions discussed include climate change governance, low-carbon transition, energy production, and consumption. This process of knowledge synthesis/creation is novel and important because it provides a working model for making connections across academic fields as well as between academia and civil society. The process produces a holistic set of insights and recommendations for climate change actions and a unique model of engagement. The different voices reported here enrich the scope of possible solutions, showing that Canada is brimming with ideas, possibilities, and the will to act.
The purpose of this article is to provide orthopaedic surgeons with a guide for the management and treatment of osteoporosis. Preventing fracture prevention is the key efficacy end point in the medical management of osteoporosis for any patient. Enhancement of the bone mass and improving the bone quality are achieved by a combination of lifestyle modification, dietary supplementation with calcium and Vitamin D and pharmacologic treatment. This has proved effective for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. The orthopedic surgeon is frequently contacted to identify patients with an osteoporotic fracture. As the orthopaedic surgeon is often the only physician to see a patient who has sustained such a fracture, orthopaedic surgeons must make every effort to determine if the injury is a fragility fracture so that the patient can be treated to prevent future fractures.
In order to help assessment of enhanced geothermal energy potential in Canada, we constructed a new series of heatflow and depth-temperature distribution maps ( down to 10 km). We focus on high-temperature resources (>150 degrees C) capable of electrical production. Maps presented show large temperature variability, related mainly to heat flow patterns. The highest temperatures occur in western and northern Canada. Here temperatures greater than 150 degrees C, required for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), can be reached at reasonable drilling depths of <5 km. Heat flow, by itself however, is not a sufficient tool to predict areas of high energy content. A combination of thick low thermal conductivity sedimentary blankets and moderate to high heat flow areas can generate targets that are as favorable as regions with high conductivity and high heat flow. Some moderate heat flow areas in the deeper parts of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin have heat content comparable to high heat flow zones of the the Canadian Cordillera. The magnitude of in-place thermal energy available for future heat 'mining/farming' was esitmated throughout Canada by calculating heat released through cooling a defined rock volume through a fixed temperature change. These estimates show the first-order appoximation of available geothermal heat content. The fraction of true heat energy available will be as low as 0.02 of these values. However, even this more limited energy production could be large enough to be a considerable future renewable energy resource for Canada.
Maps of shallow depth (down to −250m) temperature distribution across Canada show large variability, related mainly to surface
climatic forcing. Very small changes of temperature with depth in the upper 250 m are related to heat gained by the subsurface
due to recent global warming. Temperature data compiled from precise temperature logs in equilibrium wells, and temperature
time series from a network of meteorological stations, allow calculation of the available heat energy for heating in the cold
period and for cooling in peak warm months. Utilization of this energy resource has the potential for significant CO2 reduction in Canada. The geothermal energy stored in the ground can be used, with the help of heat pumps, for heating, given
very low winter temperatures. The amount of potential heat available is vast. In Canada, south of permafrost border, the integrated
value of potentially available heat during the heating season down to −50m is 1.1 E21 J (1100 quads).
So far, solar energy has been viewed as only a minor contributor in the energy mixture of the US due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent drastic cost reductions in the production of photovoltaics (PV) pave the way for enabling this technology to become cost competitive with fossil fuel energy generation. We show that with the right incentives, cost competitiveness with grid prices in the US (e.g., 6–10 US¢/kWh) can be attained by 2020. The intermittency problem is solved by integrating PV with compressed air energy storage (CAES) and by extending the thermal storage capability in concentrated solar power (CSP). We used hourly load data for the entire US and 45-year solar irradiation data from the southwest region of the US, to simulate the CAES storage requirements, under worst weather conditions. Based on expected improvements of established, commercially available PV, CSP, and CAES technologies, we show that solar energy has the technical, geographical, and economic potential to supply 69% of the total electricity needs and 35% of the total (electricity and fuel) energy needs of the US by 2050. When we extend our scenario to 2100, solar energy supplies over 90%, and together with other renewables, 100% of the total US energy demand with a corresponding 92% reduction in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions compared to the 2005 levels.
Plotting the performance of a technology against the money or effort invested in it most often yields an S-shaped curve: slow initial improvement, then accelerated improvement, then diminishing improvement. These S-curves can be used to gain insight into the relative payoff of investment in competing technologies, as well as providing some insight into when and why some technologies overtake others in the race for dominance. Analyzing renewable energies from such a technology S-curve perspective reveals some surprising and important implications for both government and industry. Using data on government R&D investment and technological improvement (in the form of cost reductions), we show that both wind energy and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels within a relatively short time frame. The evidence further suggests that R&D for wind and geothermal technologies has been under-funded by national governments relative to funding for solar technologies, and government funding of fossil fuel technologies might be excessive given the diminishing performance of those technologies.
Several approaches can be used for estimating tidal power potential. From a theoretical point of view,
others have shown that the problem can be reduced to a single or multiple boundary problem with
simple geometry where each case has a well defined maximum power potential. From a practical point of
view, the potential can be approximated from the ambient flow. Questions naturally arise whether the
theoretical approach can be applied to a typical field-scale problem, and whether the practical approach
has any validity. In order to provide more insight into these questions, form drag representing tidal
turbines has been introduced into a numerical flow model. This is an unstructured grid model with an
implicit treatment of wetting and drying that has been shown to be robust, accurate, and efficient for
highly irregular coastal ocean environments and is well suited for this problem. The field site that has
been examined is Minas Passage in the Bay of Fundy which provides an interesting practical perspective
for this problem. In the end, only a fraction of the theoretical maximum power potential can be realized
in practice because of physical constraints on the maximum form drag for tidal turbines.
