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Climate Futures for Tasmania future fire danger: the summary and the technical report
Abstract and Figures
Fire danger has increased in recent decades, and is projected to increase further with global warming. We assessed the regional changes in fire danger that are projected to occur in Tasmania through to 2100 under a high emissions scenario. In contrast with previous continental–scale studies which show little change in Tasmanian fire danger, our results indicate an overall increase in fire danger, especially in spring, with more days per year likely to require total fire bans. This increase in fire danger will have social and political implications. Projected changes to extreme weather events More extreme events have been recorded over the latter half of the 20th century, coinciding with changes to climate over that time. Higher maximum and minimum temperatures, more hot days and fewer cold days, and more intense rainfall events have all been observed and are expected to increase with future climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its fifth assessment report (AR5), concluded with high confidence that climate change would lead to increases in the number of days with very high and extreme fire weather. The greatest increase is expected in regions where fire is not limited by the availability of fuel, such as in southern Australia. The IPCC identified increased fire weather, along with complex impacts on vegetation and biodiversity changes, as a key risk from climate change to people, property, infrastructure, ecosystems and native species. The aim of the Future Fire Danger Project was to understand the changing risk of fire danger in Tasmania. This study builds on the scientific knowledge, fine–resolution climate simulations and the communication network generated by Climate Futures for Tasmania. The study used observations and models to examine changes in fire danger over recent decades, then used climate model projections, including high–resolution simulations for Tasmania, to assess projected changes of fire risk in the future.
... cupressoides) D. Don, a species restricted to cool, wet climates and fire-free environments. Following an extremely hot and dry summer in 2015/2016, a lightning storm ignited numerous fires which burnt large stands of A. cupressoides [34,35]. Recovery is unlikely because of the species' slow growth and limited seedling establishment and the positive feedback between fire and flammability discussed above. ...
... While we expect that vegetation change will occur slowly over long timeframes in the forest types because of the longevity of the dominant species, vegetation change may be more rapid in the alpine and subalpine regions, where the suitable climate is projected to constrict over the coming decades as Tasmania becomes warmer and drier. Additionally, extreme events such as heatwaves and droughts may cause sudden shifts in the vegetation in these regions, where the dominant species are less resilient to extremely high temperatures and/or low moisture conditions [35]. Similarly, the distribution of vegetation types in which structurally important species have particular climatic requirements (e.g., Athrotaxis) may change over time. ...
Changes to the frequency of fire due to management decisions and climate change have the potential to affect the flammability of vegetation, with long-term effects on the vegetation structure and composition. Frequent fire in some vegetation types can lead to transformational change beyond which the vegetation type is radically altered. Such feedbacks limit our ability to project fuel loads under future climatic conditions or to consider the ecological tradeoffs associated with management burns. We present a “pathway modelling” approach to consider multiple transitional pathways that may occur under different fire frequencies. The model combines spatial layers representing current and future fire danger, biomass, flammability, and sensitivity to fire to assess potential future fire activity. The layers are derived from a dynamically downscaled regional climate model, attributes from a regional vegetation map, and information about fuel characteristics. Fire frequency is demonstrated to be an important factor influencing flammability and availability to burn and therefore an important determinant of future fire activity. Regional shifts in vegetation type occur in response to frequent fire, as the rate of change differs across vegetation type. Fire-sensitive vegetation types move towards drier, more fire-adapted vegetation quickly, as they may be irreversibly impacted by even a single fire, and require very long recovery times. Understanding the interaction between climate change and fire is important to identify appropriate management regimes to sustain fire-sensitive communities and maintain the distribution of broad vegetation types across the landscape.
... Heatwaves are anticipated to occur four times more frequently than current conditions (White et al., 2009). Bushfires are a historic and current occurrence in Tasmania, and according to an ACE CRC report, it is expected that fire danger will roughly double over twice the area of land by the end of the century (Fox-Hughes et al., 2015). Frequency and severity of extreme weather events is anticipated to increase, with the intensity of rainfall heightening flood risk. ...
This study investigates the institutional, social, and ecological dynamics that influence regional water governance and individual vineyard owners' decision making in global wine regions. Global wine grape production has grown steadily over the past 20 years, and climate change has emerged as a driver of transformation in wine regions resulting in a range of impacts. Changes to the climate are anticipated to accelerate in the future and present a number of challenges for wine regions; including risks to human systems, e.g., agriculture, labor, and economics, as well as ecological systems, e.g., surface and groundwater. Water is a critical resource for environmental and economic sustainability in wine regions, and vulnerability to freshwater resources in wine producing regions is expected to increase as wine regions experience climate extremes like heat and drought. We use the Institutional-Social-Ecological Dynamics (ISED) framework to help understand individual vineyard owner decision making about water management within the context of institutional, social, and ecological systems. We ask how the relationships between these systems impact outcomes for individual grape farmers adapting to climate challenges. Our empirical research uses document review and interviews with vineyard owners, planners, and natural resource managers in wine regions in Oregon, USA and Tasmania, Australia as a means to explore climate vulnerabilities and adaptation approaches. Subsequently we focus on an example vignette in each region to better understand individual decision making at the farm scale within the unique institutional, social, and ecological contexts identified in each region. Our cases highlight the finding that entrenched institutional regimes, in the context of ecological variability contribute to a social unevenness in access to water. Landowner conflict over water resources is likely to increase in the context of a hotter, drier climate in regions with wine industry growth. Individual vineyard owners have a range of attitudes and approaches to climate change planning and management; and adaptation around water is dependent on both economic resources and social values. Lessons from the individual farm scale help to inform broader implications of how institutional, social, and ecological drivers influence opportunities or barriers to the implementation of climate change adaptation practices in wine regions.
... The 2015-16 Tasmania bushfire season exhibited above-normal risk conditions as a result of recent warm years and low rainfall (BNHCRC, 2015). Authorities recognize that a projected 250% increase in the area of Tasmania categorised as 'Very High Fire Danger' during spring by 2081e2100 under a high emissions scenario will shorten preparation and recovery cycles (Fox-Hughes et al. 2015). Thus Tasmania is ideal for studies concerning bushfire safety. ...
The increased ease for individuals to create, share and map geographic information combined with the need for timely, relevant and diverse information has resulted in a new disaster management context. Volunteered geographic information (VGI), or geographic information voluntarily created by private citizens enabled through technologies like social media and web-based mapping, has changed the ways people create and use information for crisis events. Research has focussed on disaster response while largely ignoring prevention and preparedness. Preparing for disasters can reduce negative impacts on life and property, but despite strategies to educate communities, preparation remains low. This study assesses the application and value of VGI in bushfire risk reduction through a participatory mapping approach. It examines VGI as a social practice and not simply a data source by considering the user experience of contributing VGI and the potential for these activities to increase community connectedness for building disaster resilience. Participatory mapping workshops were held in bushfire-risk communities in Tasmania. Workshop activities included a paper-mapping exercise and web-based digital mapping. Survey results from 31 participants at three workshops indicated the process of mapping and contributing local information for bushfire preparation with other community members can contribute to increased social connectedness, understanding of local bushfire risk, and engagement in risk reduction. Local knowledge exchange was seen as valuable, but the social dimension appeared even more engaging than the specific information shared. Participants reported collaborative maps as effective for collating and sharing community bushfire information with a preference for digital mapping. Some limitations of online sharing of information were also reported by participants, however, including potential issues of privacy, data quality and source trustworthiness. Further work is needed to extrapolate findings from the study sample to the broader population.
This report will help the Tasmanian community be better prepared for, respond to and recover from natural
disasters through an updated understanding and awareness of the natural hazards that have the most
potential to impact the State.
The information contained in this summary report, together with the risk register and risk treatment
options provided in the accompanying risk assessment report, can be used by stakeholders and practitioners
throughout the emergency management sector to inform emergency management planning.
This report assesses the State level risks posed by Bushfire, Flood, Severe Storm, Landslide, Tsunami,
Earthquake, Heatwave, Coastal Inundation and Pandemic Influenza ‘by sector’.
Bushfire remains the greatest aggregated risk to Tasmania. It is a ‘High’ or ‘Extreme’ risk across all
sectors of society, often with catastrophic consequences expected every 30 years (i.e. ‘Unlikely’ likelihood).
This likelihood is expected to become more frequent with climate change.
Land-use planning and building systems are strong and effective controls for each of the hazards apart from
Pandemic Influenza. Limiting future development and vulnerability in known ‘at risk’ areas is considered to be
the most effectve way of protecting life and property while limiting future government liability.
A ‘multi-hazards’ approach to exercises and business continuity planning within government was agreed
to be an important treatment option, with hazard-specific training recommended for key incident
management personnel (e.g. incident controllers) as well as formalising the arrangements to guide
decision-makers in times of crisis to ensure rapid decision.
This report will help the Tasmanian community be better prepared for, respond to and recover from natural disasters through an updated understanding and awareness of the natural hazards that have the most potential to
impact the State.
The information contained in this report, including the risk register and risk treatment options together with the
accompanying all hazard summary report, can be used by stakeholders and practitioners throughout the emergency management sector to inform emergency management planning.
This report assesses the State level risks posed by Bushfire, Flood, Severe Storm, Landslide, Tsunami, Earthquake,
Heatwave, Coastal Inundation and Pandemic Influenza. Bushfire remains the greatest aggregated risk to Tasmania. It is a ‘High’ or ‘Extreme’ risk across all sectors of society, often with catastrophic consequences expected every 30 years (i.e. ‘Unlikely’ likelihood). This likelihood is expected to become more frequent with climate change.
Land-use planning and building systems are strong and effective controls for each of the hazards apart from
Pandemic Influenza. Limiting future development and vulnerability in known ‘at risk’ areas is considered to be the
most effectve way of protecting life and property while limiting future government liability.
A ‘multi-hazards’ approach to exercises and business continuity planning within government was agreed to be an
important treatment option, with hazard-specific training recommended for key incident management personnel
(e.g. incident controllers) as well as formalising the arrangements to guide decision-makers in times of crisis to
ensure rapid decision.
Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the
incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and
local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections
of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case
study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare
the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate
Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high
regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region
are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations
reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The
incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high
emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little
change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in
frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model
range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic
channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day
in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological
drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.
Daily values of McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index were generated at ~10-km resolution over Tasmania, Australia, from six dynamically downscaled CMIP3 climate models for 1961–2100, using a high (A2) emissions scenario. Multi-model mean fire danger validated well against observations for 2002–2012, with 99th percentile fire dangers having the same distribution and largely similar values to those observed over the same time. Model projections showed a broad increase in fire danger across Tasmania, but with substantial regional variation – the increase was smaller in western Tasmania (district mean cumulative fire danger increasing at 1.07 per year) compared with parts of the east (1.79 per year), for example. There was also noticeable seasonal variation, with little change occurring in autumn, but a steady increase in area subject to springtime 99th percentile fire danger from 6% in 1961–1980 to 21% by 2081–2100, again consistent with observations. In general, annually accumulated fire danger behaved similarly. Regional mean sea level pressure patterns resembled observed patterns often associated with days of dangerous fire weather. Days of elevated fire danger displaying these patterns increased in frequency during the simulated twenty-first century: in south-east Tasmania, for example, the number of such events detected rose from 101 (across all models) in 1961–1980 to 169 by 2081–2100. Correspondence of model output with observations and the regional detail available suggest that these dynamically downscaled model data are useful projections of future fire danger for landscape managers and the community.
The area burnt each summer in Tasmania is related to coincident (summer) climate variables, especially the total summer rainfall. The relationship with temperature is weaker and largely reflects the relationship between rainfall and temperature. As the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is known to be related to Australian rainfall and simple indices of this phenomenon form the basis of the operational seasonal climate forecast scheme used in Australia, it is not surprising that indices of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation can also, it appears, provide a potentially useful forecast system for Tasmanian bushfire extent. In particular, sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea during winter are correlated with the area burnt in the following summer. The effect of summer rainfall on the area burnt each year suggests that global warming may not simply lead to increased burning, contrasting with the situation in other parts of the globe. A weak, long-term decline in area burnt appears to be due to a weak increase in summer rainfall.
This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decision making under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies. (LN)
The fires on Ash Wednesday 1983 were some of the most destructive in Australia's history, with 75 lives lost, more than 2000 houses and 335 000 ha of rural land burnt, and more than 250 000 head of stock lost. Using archived objective analyses from the Australian National Meteorological Centre, the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset, and a contemporary operational mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, the predictability and the dynamics of the wind structures over Victoria on that day are investigated, and a 40-year analysis archive used to assess just how meteorologically unusual the event was. It is shown that using the archived analyses to provide the initial state, and analysis lateral boundary conditions, that the timing of the wind change could be forecast extremely accurately. The strong post-frontal winds are shown to be associated with an unusual - ly deep tropospheric trough system, and an analysis of 40 years of summer data from the NCEP reanalyses shows this system was in the strongest 0.1 per cent as measured by the intensity of the 850 hPa temperature gradient over Victoria. It is further shown that many of the other extreme fire weather events in that period were also associated with similarly unusually strong temperature gradients at 850 hPa, suggesting that this param - eter has the potential to identify unusually severe fire weather events in medium-range, seasonal, and climate change numeri - cal model forecasts.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- C B Field
- Vr Barros
- Dj Dokken
- Mach
- Md Mastrandrea
- M Bilir
- Chatterjee
- Y O Kl Ebi
- Estrada
- B Genova
- Girma
- A N Kissel
- Levy
- Maccracken
IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [Field CB, VR Barros, DJ Dokken, KJ Mach, MD Mastrandrea, TE Bilir, M Chatterjee, KL Ebi, YO Estrada,
RC Genova, B Girma, ES Kissel, AN Levy, S MacCracken, PR Mastrandrea & LL White (eds.)].