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Jens Esmark’s Christiania (Oslo) meteorological observations 1816-1838: The first long term continuous temperature record from the Norwegian capital homogenized and analysed
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In 2010 we rediscovered the complete set of meteorological observation protocols made by Jens Esmark (1762–1839) during his years of residence in the Norwegian capital of Oslo (then Christiania). From 1 January 1816 to 25 January 1839, Esmark at his house in Øvre Voldgate in the morning, early afternoon and late evening recorded air temperature with state-of-the-art thermometers. He also noted air pressure, cloud cover, precipitation and wind directions, and experimented with rain gauges and hygrometers. From 1818 to the end of 1838 he twice a month provided weather tables to the official newspaper Den Norske Rigstidende, and thus acquired a semi-official status as the first Norwegian state meteorologist. This paper evaluates the quality of Esmark's temperature observations and presents new metadata, new homogenization and analysis of monthly means. Three significant shifts in the measurement series were detected, and suitable corrections are proposed. The air temperature in Oslo during this period is shown to exhibit a slow rise from 1816 towards 1825, followed by a slighter fall again towards 1838.
An end moraine (Vassryggen) and associated sandur, described by Jens Esmark as early as 1824, was the first pre-Neoglacial glacigenic landform association to be recognised as such. It forms the most important element of a range of evidence used by Esmark in support of his continental-scale glaciation hypothesis. The career of Esmark, who became a foundation professor of the Royal Frederick University in Christiania (Oslo) is outlined, and his influence on the development of the glacial theory in Britain is appraised, as is the role of his associate Robert Jameson in Edinburgh. A sketch of the glacial geology of the Forsand area of southwest Norway examines Vassryggen and its allied landforms in the context of déglaciation and sea-level change at the close of the Younger Dryas stadial.
The 1815 eruption of Tambora caused an unusually cold summer in much of Europe in 1816. The extreme weather led to poor harvests and malnutrition, but also demonstrated the capability of humans to adapt and help others in worse conditions. L arge volcanic eruptions in the tropics can temporarily alter climate around the world, causing global cooling 1 and shifting precipitation patterns. One particularly well-described example is the 1815 eruption of Tambora, which caused the 1816 " year without a summer " in Europe 2–5. The unusual cooling and anomalous rainfall led to a host of problems for many residents of western and central Europe, and may have helped to spur emigration to the Americas. But as we argue here, the effects of the Tambora eruption were not uniform across Europe. And people who were not the hardest hit showed a surprising willingness to help those who were suffering. Summer 1816 after Tambora Large tropical volcanic eruptions impose short but substantial energy imbalances in the climate system. The effects of the eruptions mainly arise from the release of large amounts of SO 2, which is transformed into sulphate aerosols. In the lower atmosphere, the particles are removed within a few weeks, and have no long-term climatic effects
Homogeneity is important when analyzing climatic long-term time series. This is to ensure that the variability in the time series is not affected by changes such as station relocations, instrumentation changes and changes in the surroundings. The subject of this study is a long-term temperature series from the Norwegian University of Life Sciences at Ås in Southern Norway, located in a rural area about 30 km south of Oslo. Different methods for calculation of monthly mean temperature were studied and new monthly means were calculated before the homogeneity testing was performed. The statistical method used for the testing was the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) by Hans Alexandersson. Five breaks caused by relocations and changes in instrumentation were identified. The seasonal adjustments of the breaks lay between -0.4°C and +0.5°C. Comparison with two other homogenized temperature series in the Oslo fjord region showed similar linear trends, which suggests that the long-term linear temperature trends in the Oslo fjord region are not much affected by spatial climate variation.
The 1815 eruption of Tambora volcano (Sumbawa island, Indonesia) expelled around 140 gt of magma (equivalent to ≈50 km3 of dense rock), making it the largest known historic eruption. More than 95% by mass of the ejecta was erupted as pyroclastic flows, but 40% by mass of the material in these flows ended up as ash fallout from the 'phoenix' clouds that lofted above the flows during their emplacement. Although they made only a minor contribution to the total magnitude of the eruption, the short-lived plinian explosions that preceded the climactic eruption and caldera collapse were powerful, propelling plumes up to 43 km altitude. Over 71 000 people died during, or in the aftermath of, the eruption, on Sumbawa and the neighbouring island of Lombok. The eruption injected ≈60 mt of sulfur into the stratosphere, six times more than was released by the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This formed a global sulfate aerosol veil in the stratosphere, which resulted in pronounced climate perturbations. Anomalously cold weather hit the northeastern USA, maritime provinces of Canada, and Europe the following year. 1816 came to be known as the 'Year without a summer' in these regions. Crop failures were widespread and the eruption has been implicated in accelerated emigration from New England, and widespread outbreaks of epidemic typhus. These events provide important insights into the volcanic forcing of climate, and the global risk of future eruptions on this scale.
Systematic temperature observations were not undertaken in Norway until the early 19th century, and even then only sporadically. Climate-proxy data may be used to reconstruct temperatures before this period, but until now there have not been any climate proxies available for late winter. This situation has recently changed, as a diary containing historical ice break-up data from a farm near lake Randsfjord in southeastern Norway has been discovered. These data, together with observations from lake Mjøsa in the same region, make it possible to reconstruct temperature back to 1758. The reconstructed series, combined with instrumental series from the area near the lake, were merged into one composite time series covering the period 1758-2006. The lowest temperatures are seen during the Dalton sunspot minimum in the early 19th century. The 20th century was 1.3°C warmer than the 19th century, whereas the 19th century was 0.4°C warmer than the last 43 years of the 18th century. During the period 1758-1850, the mean temperature was 1.4°C lower than the mean value of the 20th century. The warmth observed in the 1990s and at the start of the 21st century is unprecedented during the whole series.
An analysis is made of the adjustments needed to produce three homogeneous data sets, namely the 1961–1990 mean temperatures in Finland, the North Atlantic Climatolological Dataset (NACD) temperature and precipitation series (1890–1990), and the Finnish daily mean maximum and minimum temperature series (1910–1995), as well as the reasons for making such adjustments. The adjustments in the annual (seasonal) mean temperatures are up to ±1°C (±2°C), and annual precipitation adjustments can be ±40%. In Finland, the homogeneity breaks in the normal period temperatures and in the long-term daily mean maximum and minimum temperatures appear to be random, and thus, do not bias averages based on large numbers of stations. However, both the temperature and precipitation series of the NACD would have been statistically significantly biased without adjustments. Station relocations appear to be the most common cause of homogeneity breaks in the temperature series. In the NACD, the adjustments resulting from relocations are statistically significant and reflect changes to colder observing sites. Also, changes in the formula used for the calculation of mean temperatures and urbanization both cause systematic biases in the data. The installation of improved precipitation gauges has been systematic in the NACD; thus, the original series need to be adjusted upwards in the early years. The applied adjustments are of the same order of magnitude as the observed long-term trends, which stresses the importance of the testing and adjusting of long-term series before analysis of climatic changes. In order to monitor climatic changes in a reliable manner, the observing network should be designed to withstand the common discontinuities (e.g. relocations, observer and environment changes etc.) in observation series, because the number of homogeneity breaks appears to be roughly constant in time. Moreover, the introduction of new technology may cause systematic changes in the observations, and comprehensive comparison measurements are needed. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society
Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by approximately 0.5 degrees C (0.25 degrees C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.
A 175 years long homogenized composite record of monthly mean temperatures is presented for Oslo, the capital of Norway. The early raw data have been digitised and quality controlled, and monthly means have been calculated. Some early original observations carried out in a Wild screen (1877–1936) were found to be spuriously high because of inappropriate sheltering from sunlight. These spurious temperatures were not used in the composite record, but alternative temperatures measured (1837–1933) by thermometers placed outside windows at the Astronomical Observatory were used instead. No inhomogeneity was detected in the latter series after adding an instrument correction of +0.3 °C, but the start year of the correction remains uncertain. The more recent part of the composite record used the long-term series (1937 to present) from Blindern in Oslo, the premises of The Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Two small inhomogeneities were detected in the Blindern series, possibly caused by a weak urban heat island effect or growing/cutting of trees. The study revealed that the annual mean temperature has increased by 1.5 °C in the period 1838–2012. The most pronounced increase in annual temperature occurred during the last 50 years, and in the early 20th century that ended with a local maximum in the 1930s. The temperature has increased significantly in all seasons; however, the temperature increase in summer was less than a half of that in winter and spring, which were the seasons with largest increase. In addition the monthly mean temperature of the coldest month in each year has increased two times faster than the warmest one. The most significant temperature variations were associated to ∼ 5-year time scales in its early part, but since 1930 and up to present, the dominant time scales were 10–20 years.
A new technique has been developed for the identification of inhomogeneities in Canadian temperature series. The objective is to identify two types of inhomogeneities-nonclimatic steps and trends-in the series of a candidate station in the absence of prior knowledge of the time of site changes and to properly estimate their position in time and their magnitude. This new technique is based on the application of four linear regression models in order to determine whether the tested series is homogeneous, if there is a nonclimatic trend, a step, or trends before and/or after a step. The dependent variable is the series of the candidate station and the independent variables are the series of some neighboring stations. Additional independent variables are used to describe and measure steps and trends existing in the tested series but not in the neighboring series. After the application of each model, the residuals are analyzed in order to determine the fit of the model. If there is significant autocorrelation in the residuals, nonidentified inhomogeneities are suspected in the tested series and a different model is applied to the datasets. A model is finally accepted when the residuals are considered to be random variables. The description of the technique is presented along with some evaluation of its ability to identify inhomogeneities. Results are illustrated through the provision of an example of its application to archived temperature datasets.
A new test for the detection of linear trends of arbitrary length in normally distributed time series is developed. With this test it is possible to detect and estimate gradual changes of the mean value in a candidate series compared with a homogeneous reference series. The test is intended for studies of artificial relative trends in climatological time series, e.g. an increasing urban heat island effect. The basic structure of the new test is similar to that of a widely used test for abrupt changes, the standard normal homogeneity test. The test for abrupt changes is found to remain unaltered after an important generalization. © 1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society.
Homogeneity tests of long seasonal temperature series from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Norway indicate that homogeneous series are rare and that an abrupt change of the relative mean level is a much more common type of non-homogeneity than a gradual change. Furthermore, negative shifts were 20% more common than positive shifts. Homogenized temperature anomaly series that were constructed for six 5° latitude×5° longitude grid boxes indicate that the temporal pattern of temperture changes has been similar in different parts of Sweden since 1861. The annual mean temperature over Sweden was found to have increased by 0ċ68°C from the period 1861–1890 to 1965–1994. The corresponding changes for the seasons were: +0ċ18°C (winter), +1ċ40 (spring), +0ċ42 (summer) and +0ċ60 (autumn). A direct comparson shows that non-homogeneities in the temperature series from individual grid boxes in a global data set can be as large as the total changes observed. We estimate that a 95 per cent confidence interval for the error, due to non-homogeneous long station records, in estimates of hemispheric temperature changes over land regions since the period 1861–1890 is ±0ċ1°C for the Northern Hemisphere and the globe and ±0ċ25°C for the Southern Hemisphere. For a region consisting of about five grid boxes, this error is ±0ċ5°C. The large non-homogeneities in individual grid-box series in the global data set is partly a consequence of the fact that homogeneous climate data are not always easily available for the open research community. We urge that efforts are made to improve this situation.
The main aim of the present study was to identify to what degree decadal scale variability and long-term trends in temperature and precipitation in Norway can be attributed to variations in the dominating atmospheric circulation patterns. Empirical models were developed and tested on monthly series of temperature and precipitation in different regions in Norway. The monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) field over the northern North Atlantic and northern Europe was used as a predictor. Principal components (PCs) deduced from this field were used as a basis for stepwise multiple regression analysis. The downscaling models were developed using 1925–1969 as a training period, while 1900–1924 and 1970–1994 were used as validation periods. Model testing revealed that the temperature variability during 1970–1994 in most cases was better simulated than the variability during 1900–1924. The models reproduced most of the observed trends and decadal scale variability from 1940 to present. They also reproduced the precipitation trends in western Norway before 1940. However, the temperature increase observed over all the country in 1900–1940 was not reproduced. Nor was the increased winter precipitation in southeastern Norway during the same period. It is concluded that the temperature and precipitation changes observed in Norway during the last 40 years can mainly be attributed to variations in the SLP field. Variations in the precipitation conditions in the eastern parts of the country, and in temperature all over the country, during 1900–1940 are probably connected to changes in external forcings and/or atmosphere–ocean interactions. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society
In climate research it is important to have access to reliable data which are free from artificial trends or changes. One way of checking the reliability of a climate series is to compare it with surrounding stations. This is the idea behind all tests of the relative homogeneity. Here we will present a simple homogeneity test and apply it to a precipitation data set from south-western Sweden. More precisely we will apply it to ratios between station values and some reference values. The reference value is a form of a mean value from surrounding stations. It is found valuable to include short and incomplete series in the reference value. The test can be used as an instrument for quality control as far as the mean level of, for instance, precipitation is concerned. In practice it should be used along with the available station history. Several non-homogeneities are present in these series and probably reflect a serious source of uncertainty in studies of climatic trends and climatic change all over the world. The significant breaks varied from 5 to 25 per cent for this data set. An example illustrates the importance of using relevant climatic normals that refer to the present measurement conditions in constructing maps of anomalies.
Several techniques for the detection of discontinuities in temperature series are evaluated. Eight homogenization techniques were compared using simulated datasets reproducing a vast range of possible situations. The simulated data represent homogeneous series and series having one or more steps. Although the majority of the techniques considered in this study perform very well, two methods seem to work slightly better than the others: the standard normal homogeneity test without trend, and the multiple linear regression technique. Both methods are distinctive because of their sensitivity concerning homogeneous series and their ability to detect one or several steps properly within an inhomogeneous series. Copyright © 2003 Environment Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A series of spring–summer (April–August) temperatures was reconstructed for the period 1734–1923 for western Norway based on multi-proxy data. For the period 1734–1842 the long-term variations were based on terminal moraines in front of two southern Norwegian glaciers, whereas the annual variations were based on grain-harvest data extracted from farmers' diaries. For the period 1843–1867 the spring–summer temperatures were reconstructed solely from diaries overlapping instrumental observations. All the results were incorporated into one series for the period 1734–2003 to form the Vestlandet composite series.
The reconstruction method using terminal-moraine sequences was tested against the modern instrumental Bergen series for the periods of moraine formations in front of the glaciers. The agreement with the instrumental series was good, with the mean difference for all periods being only 0.2 °C. Analyses of decadal variations in western Norway revealed three periods of low spring–summer temperatures: around 1740, in the first decade of the 19th century, and in the 1830s. These periods are well known from historic records as periods of starvation, during which the use of bark bread became common. Copyright
Daily meteorological observations have been made at the old astronomical observatory in Stockholm since 1754. Complete daily mean series of air temperature and sea level pressure are reconstructed from the observational data for 1756–1998. The temperature and pressure series arereconstructed and homogenized with the aid of metadata, statistical tests and comparisons with data from other stations. Comparisons with independently reconstructed daily series for nearby Uppsala (1722–1998) show that the quality of thedaily Stockholm data is good, although the reliability is lower before the mid-19th century. The daily temperature data show that the colder winter mean temperatures of the late 18th to early 19th centuries were connected with a particularly high frequency of very cold winter days. The warmer summers of the same period are more connected with a general shift of the temperature distribution towards higher temperatures than in the late 20th century.
Proxy data from five farmers; diaries in the Møre, Dovre and Trøndelag regions in central Norway were used for climatic reconstruction purposes. The method chosen was "simple linear regression analysis" with the start of the grain harvest (barley or oats) as predictor and summer temperature (May – August) as predictand. Overlapping periods with modern instrumental observations (starting 1858 or later) were used for calibration of the model. The model was tested on independent data by establishing the regression on one half of the overlapping period and applying the regression on the other half. The standard deviation in the residuals varied from 0.3°C to 0.7°C and the biases of the mean values from −0.3°C to +0.3°C. Climatic reconstructions were established for the early- and mid-nineteenth century summer temperature, i.e. during the last part of what has come to be regarded as the "Little Ice Age", in this article considered to end around 1880.
By use of the proxy data model, huge inhomogeneities of the "classical" Trondheim series were detected, the early nineteenth century part of the series evidently being too warm. The inhomogeneity was removed by use of adjustment terms. The adjusted series indicates that in the Trondheim region the summer temperature during the last part of the "Little Ice Age" phase was about 1°C lower than the latest 60 years. This is in serious contradiction to the classical Trondheim series.
Daily meteorological observations have been made in Uppsala, Sweden, since 1722, and complete series of air temperature and sea level air pressure have been reconstructed and homogenised for the period 1722–1998. The reconstruction work was based on the hand written registers and printed monthly bulletins before 1985, after which data was directly stored on computers. Methods to determine daily average temperatures from the typically available 2–3 observations per day were developed. Thesemethods take into account observation times and cloud amount. Pressure reductions back to 1840 involved only routine calculations, while earlier pressure data needed major homogenisations. All data were searched for errors by comparisons with previously determined monthly averages and by different plotting techniques, mainly comparing with independently reconstructed data from Stockholm, 65 km south of Uppsala. This comparison also shows that the quality of the data is generally good, although the reliability is lower before the mid-19th century. Results are given illustrating changes in the daily average temperature and pressure climate on a200–250 year time scale.
In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, scientists reconstructed the immensely long history of the earthâand the relatively recent arrival of human life. The geologists of the period, many of whom were devout believers, agreed about this vast timescale. But despite this apparent harmony between geology and Genesis, these scientists still debated a great many questions: Had the earth cooled from its origin as a fiery ball in space, or had it always been the same kind of place as it is now? Was prehuman life marked by mass extinctions, or had fauna and flora changed slowly over time? The first detailed account of the reconstruction of prehuman geohistory, Martin J. S. Rudwickâs Worlds Before Adam picks up where his celebrated Bursting the Limits of Time leaves off. Here, Rudwick takes readers from the post-Napoleonic Restoration in Europe to the early years of Britainâs Victorian age, chronicling the staggering discoveries geologists made during the period: the unearthing of the first dinosaur fossils, the glacial theory of the last ice age, and the meaning of igneous rocks, among others. Ultimately, Rudwick reveals geology to be the first of the sciences to investigate the historical dimension of nature, a model that Charles Darwin used in developing his evolutionary theory. Featuring an international cast of colorful characters, with Georges Cuvier and Charles Lyell playing major roles and Darwin appearing as a young geologist, Worlds Before Adam is a worthy successor to Rudwickâs magisterial first volume. Completing the highly readable narrative of one of the most momentous changes in human understanding of our place in the natural world, Worlds Before Adam is a capstone to the career of one of the worldâs leading historians of science.
Quantitative analytical methods are used to reconstruct the course of events during and after the cataclysmic eruption of Mount Tambora, Indonesia, on 10 and 11 April 1815. This was the world's greatest ash eruption (so far as is definitely known) since the end of the last Ice Age. This synthesis is based on data and methods from the fields of volcanology, oceanography, glaciology, meteorology, climatology, astronomy, and history.
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