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Evaluation of the Algerian pension system sustainability : perspective analysis of the 50 coming years
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When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components models of simple and interpretable functions of rates. The product-ratio functional forecasting method models and forecasts the geometric mean of subpopulation rates and the ratio of subpopulation rates to product rates. Coherence is imposed by constraining the forecast ratio function through stationary time series models. The method is applied to sex-specific data for Sweden and state-specific data for Australia. Based on out-of-sample forecasts, the coherent forecasts are at least as accurate in overall terms as comparable independent forecasts, and forecast accuracy is homogenized across subpopulations.
Mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely to be similar in some respects, and differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. It should therefore be possible to improve the mortality forecasts for individual countries by taking into account the patterns in a larger group. Using the Human Mortality Database, we apply the Lee-Carter model to a group of populations, allowing each its own age pattern and level of mortality but imposing shared rates of, change by age. Our forecasts also allow divergent patterns to continue for a while before tapering off. We forecast greater longevity gains for the United States and lesser ones for Japan relative to separate forecasts.
The manifest purposes of integrating an employer-provided pension plan with social security are:(1) to ensure retirement income adequacy for all covered employees; and (2) to ensure retirement income equity, defined as equal total replacement rates for all employees regardless of salary level. The focus of this paper, however, is on an equally important (and perhaps latent) consequence of integration: the alteration of the risk-bearing relationships between employees, employers and the government vis-a-vis social security benefits. The main alteration is that the employer in effect insures his covered employees against adverse changes in their social security retirement benefit. Using the option-pricing methodology of modern contingent claims analysis,we develop a formal model to explore the quantitative aspects of this change.While the focus of the analysis is on full integration, we do explicitly deal with various degrees of partial integration as is currently practiced. We also analyze the effects of a switch from a non-integrated to an equivalent-cost integrated plan when private benefits are fixed in nominal terms and when they are indexed. In this connection we examine how integrated plans are affected when the sponsor makes ad hoc post-retirement benefit increases. We also consider the incentive effects on worker mobility of the adoption of integrated plans. The analysis is also used to highlight what we believe to be important unintended consequences of integrating pension plans with social security.
The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of demand for social security. International institutions (World Bank, International Labor Organisation etc.) consider social security to be a human right. However, in Algeria, 73% of workers in the private sector do not have any social insurance coverage (employment survey, ONS, 2013). Risk aversion (Barsky et al., 1997; Freidman, 1973), time discounting (Arrondel et al., 2004; Brown et al., 2013) and the orientation of social value orientations (Murphy et al., 2011) are all potential determinants of demand for social insurance. This paper measures these variables using experimental methods and by means of a survey administered to the active labour force in Algeria. It was found that risk aversion increases demand for social insurance, loss aversion decreases demand, and time discounting has negative effect on the demand for social insurance. In terms of personality, individualistic respondents were less likely to purchase social insurance while pro-social individuals were more likely to demand social insurance. © 2016, Faculty of Economics and Administration. All right reserved.
This paper takes stock of the evolution in pension systems and the challenges that remain for the future. It derives a typology of pension systems and uses this to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of alternative systems. After describing how pension systems in the industrial world have been facing similar challenges, this paper argues that pension contracts in various countries have developed in similar directions. In observing that the way that pensions are organized still differs substantially between countries, the paper discusses that this international heterogeneity is likely to remain in the future. A unique answer to what is the optimal pension system apparently does not exist; several alternative solutions exist alongside each other, depending on the specific historical, political and institutional context of each country.
This paper develops an analytical framework for the design of pension systems, taking the functions of the pension system as the guiding principle. It discusses the economic principles underlying these functions and their implementation in practice. In particular, it distinguishes three functions: facilitating life-cycle financial planning; insuring idiosyncratic risks and sharing macroeconomic risks across generations. The first function concerns consumption smoothing over the life cycle, taking into account individual circumstances and preferences. The second function concerns pooling of intragenerational risks in the face of imperfect insurance markets. The third function concerns intergenerational risk sharing of systemic or ‘macroeconomic’ shocks in the face of incomplete markets. As regards the latter function, the relevant market imperfections are the limited tradability of human capital and the lack of markets to trade risks with future generations.
Pension systems in the North African countries of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia are facing a certain number of difficulties. Presenting the characteristics and organizational structure of each, this article identifies the specificities of, as well as the common problems confronting, these countries' pension systems. With reference to authorizing legislation and case simulations, the high level of generosity of the different pension systems is discussed and an analysis presented. In a context of population ageing, it is argued that current levels of generosity cannot be maintained; reform is needed. The article discusses different reform options, the challenges of implementation and the possible macroeconomic impacts of reform.
To develop high-low bounds for population projections, traditional demographic forecasts assume fertility is always high or always low. Such bounds are related to bounds on average annual fertility up to year t rather than to individual year bounds in time series forecasts, and so the autocorrelation of time series forecast errors is important in practical applications. This paper develops methods for using time series methods to make constrained long term forecasts of fertility. Specifically, age-time variations in fertility are modeled with a single time-varying parameter, or fertility index; upper and lower bounds on the total fertility rate are imposed by forecasting an inverse logistic transform of the fertility index; the long run level of the fertility forecast is also constrained to equal a prespecified level. The principal interest is in the variance and the autocorrelation structure of the forecast errors. Based on these for the USA we conclude: (1) the probability interval for average fertility up to time t begins to contract after about 50 years, but only very slightly: (2) the probability interval for average fertility up to year 2065 is about three-fifths as wide as that for single year fertility in 2065, but is still far wider than the band for official forecasts; (3) realizations of the simple ARMA (1,0,1) forecast model exhibit long fluctuations something like actual fertility in industrial nations; (4) the model of fertility age patterns fits poorly at older ages, but may be adequate for present purposes.
Government-mandated pension and retirement policies have changed dramatically during the past decade. Pensions at a Glance presents a consistent framework for comparing public-pension policies across OECD countries, as well as reliable data. The report thus provides the basis for not only evaluating existing pension systems, but also designing and implementing future reforms. This second edition updates in-depth information on the key features of mandatory pension systems—both public and private--in the 30 OECD countries, including projections of retirement income for today’s workers. Two new and important sections have been added to this edition: (1) Description and analysis of pension reform in OECD countries during the past decade; and (2) a closer look at the complex range of private, voluntary retirement plans now playing a greater role in pension-provision in many OECD countries. This edition includes StatLinks, URLs under each statistical table and graph linking to Excel ® spreadsheets containing the underlying data.
About the first edition of Pensions at a Glance:
"Pensions at a Glance deserves much more than a glance. It is a compendium of facts and analyses that should inform policy-making and public debate around the world for years to come. By providing in clear and easy-to-understand form a wealth of information about pension systems throughout the OECD, it will make it much harder for even the most insular to ignore the valuable lessons to be learned from the pension experience of other nations."-- Henry J. Aaron, The Brookings Institution
Named one of 12 international "notable government documents" by the American Library Association.
While other regions — Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America in particular — have been active in pension reform, the Middle East and North Africa have lagged behind. In part this is because of the belief that favourable mean financial problems are still far in the future and pension reform is therefore not a priority. However, pension systems in the Middle East and North Africa face important structural problems. They distort the economy, tend to favour middle- and high-income workers at the expense of low-income workers and cover only a modest share of the workforce (33% on average), mostly workers in the public sector and the formal private sector. Financial problems are also starting to develop: even if favorable demography persists, benefit promises are out of line with contribution rates and retirement ages. This book puts forward a comprehensive framework to guide discussion about pension reform in the Middle East and North Africa.
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