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Oiling the Wheels of Conflict? Local Grievances, Relative Deprivation and the Potential for Conflict in Cape Three Points, Ghana.
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Natural resource, particularly oil, has been predicted to be a core factor of internal conflicts in the post-cold war era (Le Billon, 2001; Klare, 2001). This thesis explores the potential for conflict in new and emerging petro-states where recent oil discoveries have raised concerns about the risk of oil conflict occurring. The relative deprivation theory (Gurr, 1970) serves as the main theoretical point of discussion for this study. Using a case study of Cape Three Points in Ghana, the study empirically examines how community level grievances, in terms of challenges and expectations connected with the discovery and production of oil, increase the potential for conflict in petro-states. Based on a mixed method research strategy, qualitative interviews and quantitative responses were analysed to shed light on local grievances, relative deprivation and the potential for conflict in Cape Three Points. The study finds that the prevalence of unfulfilled expectations and rise in oil-related challenges has resulted in community level grievances in Cape Three Points. Consequently, local grievances have generated a feeling of relative deprivation among community members, when compared to other oil-bearing coastal communities, the government and the oil companies. However, the study suggests that the high level of frustration that has resulted from the feeling of relative deprivation has not directly translated into aggressive, violent conflict, although the potential remains high. Rather, a contrasting opinion on the use of aggression/violence to address grievances and relative deprivation exists among community members. Age, gender and collective attitude accounts for the contrasting opinion. On the basis of the analysis, the study concludes that from a relative deprivation perspective, conflict tendencies are evident in Cape Three Points, however, the onset of violent conflict seems unlikely, especially in the short term.
Keywords: Natural Resource, Conflict, Relative deprivation.
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Water conflicts involve complex dimensions and multi-level domains. In addition to the objective and overt aspects, subjective factors can also contribute to the emergence and exacerbation of water conflicts. Emotions and feelings are among the subjective, latent factors in water conflicts, yet the literature has paid little attention to these factors. The feeling of Relative Deprivation (RD) is one of those latent factors in analyzing conflicts in different fields of study. This feeling stems from a perceived discrepancy between societal capabilities and expectations, and its existence can impact the societies’ attitudes and behaviors.
The Zayandehrud River Basin is one of those conflict-ridden river basins in the country. Dealing with the basin’s water conflicts used to be through objective- and supply-oriented solutions and means. In recent decades, the perpetuation and intensification of conflicts illustrate a limited contextual grasp and the irrelevance of solutions to the nature of water conflicts. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of water conflicts, this research investigated the RD feeling as one latent factor in the Zayandehrud River Basin. To accomplish this objective, the paper addressed two questions: (1) How do state interventions in the exploitation of water resources in the Zayandehrud system contribute to the emergence of the RD feeling in both Isfahan and Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari Provinces? and (2) How does the RD feeling exacerbate water conflicts between stakeholders in Isfahan and Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari in the basin?
Using a qualitative, oriented content analysis for 46 interviews with stakeholders in the Zayandehrud River Basin, this research demonstrated that the RD feeling mediated between supply-oriented water management and the exacerbation of conflicts in the Zayandehrud River Basin. In this context, Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari Province experienced the RD feeling concerning drinking water, urban development, employment opportunities, and political influence equality compared to Isfahan. On the other hand, farmers in Isfahan experienced the RD feeling regarding sustainable access to water resources, crop diversity, and income levels. The subsequent responses to the RD feeling in both provinces led to a decrease in referent's capabilities and efforts to prevent an increase in referent's capabilities through collective actions. Both of these responses have contributed to the escalation of water conflicts in the Zayandehrud River Basin.
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