PV generation share in the energy system and battery utilisation correlation in a net zero emission world

Conference Paper · November 2016with 231 Reads 
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Conference: 6th Solar Integration Workshop, At Vienna
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Abstract
Need to transform the energy system towards 100% renewable generation is well understood and such a transformation has already started. However, this transformation will be full of challenges and there will be no standard solution for energy supply, every regional energy system will be specific, because of local specific climatic and geographical conditions and consumption patterns. Based on the two major energy sources all regions can be divided into two categories: PV and Wind energy based regions. Moreover, local conditions will not only influence the optimal generation mix, but also optimal storage capacities choice. In this work we observe a strong coupling between PV and short-term storage utilisation in all major regions in the world: in the PV generation based energy systems short-term storage utilisation is much higher than in wind-based systems. Finally, PV-based energy systems demand a significant capacity for short-term storage, the more the more PV generation takes place locally.

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  • ... For 2020, thermal energy storage is the only economically feasible solution, with the growth of RE shares in the system and cost decrease of storage technologies other types of storage appear. The most important role is played by short-term Li-ion battery storage, which is very important for systems with high PV generation shares [64]. Prosumer batteries never appear in the system because of the comparably low retail electricity prices, thus the expected electricity distribution price is too low for PV prosumers to invest in their own energy storage systems. ...
    Article
    Transition towards 100% renewable energy supply is a challenging aim for many regions in the world. Even in regions with excellent availability of wind and solar resources, such factors as limited availability of flexible renewable energy resources, low flexibility of demand, and high seasonality of energy supply and demand can impede the transition. All these factors can be found for the case of Kazakhstan, a mostly steppe country with harsh continental climate conditions and an energy intensive economy dominated by fossil fuels. Results of the simulation using the LUT Energy System Transition modelling tool show that even under these conditions, the power and heat supply system of Kazakhstan can transition towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. A renewable-based electricity only system will be lower in cost than the existing fossil-based system, with levelised cost of electricity of 54 €/MWh in 2050. The heat system transition requires installation of substantial storage capacities to compensate for seasonal heat demand variations. Electrical heating will become the main source of heat for both district and individual heating sectors with heat cost of about 45 €/MWh and electricity cost of around 56 €/MWh for integrated sectors in 2050. According to these results, transition towards a 100% renewable power and heat supply system is technically feasible and economically viable even in countries with harsh climatic conditions.
  • ... In Section 2, the yield calculation model of the single-axis tracking PV system is presented in detail. Section 3 briefly describes the LUT Energy System model and optimization, previously published by Bogdanov and Breyer (2016). In Section 4, the simulation results for PV with a horizontal single-axis tracking system are validated. ...
    Article
    The two main options on the market for utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) installations are fixed-tilted and single-axis tracking systems with a horizontal north-south-orientated axis. However, only a few global energy system studies consider the latter. The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of single-axis tracking PV on energy scenarios. For this purpose, two scenarios with and without the single-axis tracking option are studied for 100% renewable energy (RE) systems in 2030. To find the optimum energy mix for both scenarios, the total annual cost computed by the LUT Energy System model is minimized. The satellite-based input global data have a temporal resolution of one hour and a spatial resolution of 0.45° × 0.45°. Furthermore, a model to estimate the annual yield of single-axis tracking PV is proposed and validated by using the PVsyst software. The simulation results are found to be within a 4% margin to the respective simulation results of PVsyst. Both scenarios demonstrate that a 100% RE system is possible at a low cost, where PV and wind power are the dominating generation technologies. Nevertheless, the results also show a significant effect of single-axis tracking PV. The global generation share of PV increases from 47% to 59%, and 20% of the total electricity is generated by single-axis tracking PV, while the share of wind energy decreases from 31% to 21%. Additionally, curtailment, power transmission requirements, storage demand, and the total cost decrease. The global average levelized cost of electricity decreases by 6% from 54.8 to 51.4 €/MWh. The findings indicate that energy system modeling should include single-axis tracking.
  • ... In the year 2025, the solar PV generation share is 55% of the total electricity generated, and this is the time when battery storage comes into the system for the power scenario (Fig. 7). The increase in share of electricity generated from solar PV (Figs. 7 and 9) corresponds to the increase in the share of batteries, as hybrid solar PV-battery systems evolve as the least cost combination to provide electricity in India [35]. Batteries help electricity generated by solar PV to be used in the night time. ...
    Article
    In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE) transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies: batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage and power-to-gas technology are used in the modelling to provide flexibility to the system and balance demand. The optimisation for each time period (transition is modeled in 5 year steps) is carried out on an assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. Results indicate that a 100% renewable based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 58 €/MWhe to 52 €/MWhe in 2050 in the power scenario. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The synchronised discharging of batteries in the night time and charging of power-to-gas in the early summer and summer months reduces curtailment on the following day, and thus is a part of a least cost solution. The combination of solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2–4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. During the monsoon period, complementarity of storage technologies and the transmission grid help to achieve uninterrupted power supply. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and a least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
  • ... Therefore, the combination of PV and battery storage is offered by the energy model as a least cost RE technology and dominates the energy system after 2040. The highly beneficial effect of hybridizing solar PV and battery storage is found in several other publications for places all around the world [24][25][26][27][28]. 7. Ratio of storage output to electricity demand for all storage options (a) and share of different resources used for power generation in total electricity production (b), both for the power scenario Fig. 8 represents the additional storage capacity which is installed in each 5-year time step. ...
    Article
    Full-text available
    This work presents a pathway for the transition to a 100% renewable energy (RE) system by 2050 for Iran. An hourly resolved model is simulated to investigate the total power capacity required from 2015 to 2050 in 5-year time steps to fulfil the electricity demand for Iran. In addition, shares of various RE resources and storage technologies have been estimated for the applied years, and all periods before in 5-year time steps. The model takes the 2015 installed power plant capacities, corresponding lifetimes and total electrical energy demand to compute and optimize the mix of RE plants needed to be installed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. The optimization is carried out on the basis of assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. Moreover, the role of storage technologies in the energy system, and integration of the power sector with desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors are examined. Our results reveal that RE technologies can fulfil all electricity demand by the year 2050 at a price level of about 41 - 47 €/MWhel depending on the sectorial integration. Moreover, the combination of solar PV and battery storage is found as a least cost solution after 2030 for Iran. If the capacity in 2050 would have been invested for the cost assumptions of 2050 the cost would be 32 - 40 €/MWhel, depending on the sectorial integration, which can be expected for the time beyond 2050.
  • ... In the year 2025, the solar PV generation share is 55% of the total electricity generated and this is the time when battery storage comes into the system for the country-wide scenario (Figure 8). The increase in share of solar PV ( Figure 6) corresponds to the increase in the share of batteries (Figure 8), as hybrid solar PV-battery systems evolve as the least cost combination to provide electricity in India [29]. Batteries help electricity generated by solar PV to be used in the night time. ...
    Article
    The initiatives taken by India to tap its renewable energy (RE) potential have been extraordinary in recent years. However, large scale deployment of renewables requires various storage solutions to balance intermittency. In this work, a 100% RE transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies used in the model that provide flexibility to the system and balance the demand are batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES), thermal energy storage (TES) and power-togas technology. The optimization for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) is carried out on assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. The model optimizes the least cost mix of RE power plants and storage technologies installed to achieve a fully RE based power system by 2050 considering the base year's (2015) installed power plant capacities, their lifetimes and total electricity demand. Results indicate that a 100% renewable energy based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 58 €/MWhe to 52 €/MWhe in 2050 in a country-wide scenario. If the capacity in 2050 would have been invested for the cost assumptions of 2050 the cost would be 42 €/MWhe, which can be expected for the time beyond 2050. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The combination of solar PV and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2 – 4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
  • ... For 2020 the gas storage is the only economically feasible solution and mainly used to store generated bio-methane, but later, with growth of the RE share in the system other types of storage appear. The most important role plays short-term Li-ion battery storage, which is very important for systems with high PV generation shares [43]. Prosumers batteries appear in the system only in 2050, before the electricity distribution price is expected too low that PV prosumers would invest in own energy storage. ...
    Conference Paper
    Energy transition towards higher shares of renewable energy (RE) is on the agenda in Kazakhstan since 2011. Kazakhstan has a great potential to build a sustainable and RE-based system: excellent solar and wind conditions, hydro and biomass power potential. Three transition scenarios with different levels of sector integration were simulated for Kazakhstan. The results show that the existing energy system of Kazakhstan can be transformed towards a 100% RE system by 2050. Such a system will be lower in cost than the existing fossil-based system, the levelised cost of electricity in 2050 will be between 49.5 €/MWh and 53.0 €/MWh. The water stress problem can be solved with RE, since a 100% RE system can generate energy needed for desalination of 1960 billion m 3 of water, with the water cost around 1.0 €/m 3 including water transportation. A low cost sustainable 100% RE system can be built by 2050, exceeding the country's «green concept» goal of 50% RE for the same time of period.
  • ... The contribution of storage to covering the demand by storage is visualised in Figure 8. More details on the strong correlation of the solar PV share and the demand coverage share of batteries can be found in Bogdanov et al. [77]. The LUT Energy system model is further developed in its functionality, but for the results presented in this paper about 45% of the total primary energy demand is covered in the integrated scenario. ...
    Article
    The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
  • ... This emphasises the role of hybrid PV-battery systems, due to their highly favorable economics. The excellent match of solar PV and battery storage is confirmed by other studies [38][39][40][41][42]. As fossil-based electricity generation is replaced by RE generation, the relevance of storage increases significantly from 2030, particularly, due to the dominance of solar PV in the energy system. ...
    Conference Paper
    This work investigates the role of storage technologies in a least cost electricity system for Nigeria, in a 100% renewable energy (RE) transition pathway. A 100% RE scenario for Nigeria is simulated using an hourly resolved model, till 2050, covering the power, desalination and industrial gas sectors. The optimization for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) is carried out on the basis of assumed costs and technological status till 2050 of all energy technologies involved. Results from the modelling show that a 100% renewable powered system is achievable for Nigeria by 2050. Solar PV emerges as the dominant technology among all RE technologies and contributes 400 GW and 557 GW of the total installed capacities, in the power and integrated scenarios, respectively, by 2050. The share of wind remains constant at 3.6 GW from 2030 till 2045 in the power scenario, while in the integrated scenario the share of wind remained constant at 8.6 GW, from 2030 to 2050. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) declines from 61.2 €/MWh in 2015 to 38.0 €/MWh in 2050, in the power scenario. With respect to the focus of this work, the RE technologies are complemented by various storage technologies, due to high variability and reliability of RE supply. For Nigeria, gas storage dominates in terms of the total installed storage capacities, from 2040 to 2050 in the power scenario. Regarding storage output, battery storage output represents the largest share, with 360 TWh (90% of all storage throughput) in the power scenario, by 2050. This indicates compatibility and a predominant role of solar PV and battery, due to highly favorable economics. The results clearly reveal that integrating a RE technology mix with a wide variety of storage technologies is quite competitive and thus a least cost electricity solution for Nigeria in the mid-term future.
  • ... In the year 2025, the solar PV generation share is 55% of the total electricity generated and this is the time when battery storage comes into the system for the country-wide scenario (Figure 8). The increase in share of solar PV ( Figure 6) corresponds to the increase in the share of batteries (Figure 8), as hybrid solar PV-battery systems evolve as the least cost combination to provide electricity in India [29]. Batteries help electricity generated by solar PV to be used in the night time. ...
    Conference Paper
    Full-text available
    The initiatives taken by India to tap its renewable energy (RE) potential have been extraordinary in recent years. However, large scale deployment of renewables requires various storage solutions to balance intermittency. In this work, a 100% RE transition pathway based on an hourly resolved model till 2050 is simulated for India, covering demand by the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Energy storage technologies used in the model that provide flexibility to the system and balance the demand are batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES), thermal energy storage (TES) and power-togas technology. The optimization for each time period (transition is modeled in 5-year steps) is carried out on assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. The model optimizes the least cost mix of RE power plants and storage technologies installed to achieve a fully RE based power system by 2050 considering the base year's (2015) installed power plant capacities, their lifetimes and total electricity demand. Results indicate that a 100% renewable energy based energy system is achievable in 2050 with the levelised cost of electricity falling from a current level of 57 €/MWhe to 42 €/MWhe in 2050 in a country-wide scenario. With large scale intermittent renewable energy sources in the system, the demand for storage technologies increases from the current level to 2050. Batteries provide 2596 TWh, PHS provides 12 TWh and gas storage provides 197 TWh of electricity to the total electricity demand. Most of the storage demand will be based on batteries, which provide as much as 42% of the total electricity demand. The combination of solar PV and battery storage evolves as the low-cost backbone of Indian energy supply, resulting in 3.2 – 4.3 TWp of installed PV capacities, depending on the applied scenario in 2050. The above results clearly prove that renewable energy options are the most competitive and least-cost solution for achieving a net zero emission energy system. This is the first study of its kind in full hourly resolution for India.
  • ... The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the 'Neo-Carbon Energy' project under the number 40101/14. APPENDIX A Tables 1-4 are presented in the Appendix A of the paper 'PV generation share in the energy system and battery utilisation correlation in a net zero emission world', presented at 6 th Solar Integration Workshop, November 14-15, Vienna [30]. ...
    Conference Paper
    Growing understanding of the viability of the energy system transformation towards carbon neutrality emerges the concerns about the possibility to cover the European energy demand only with renewable energy sources. Huge and growing electricity demand, high population density and limited societal allowance of wind energy in some regions of Europe makes this transformation more challenging. Some of the European energy demand could be covered with wind generated electricity imported from other regions, such as Northwest Russia, a region with good wind conditions and much smaller population density. However, results of modelling show that local wind resources are sufficient to cover the local electricity demand. Electricity cost in Northwest Russia is low, but due to high transmission costs, imported electricity is in most cases more expensive than local wind generation. Finally, there is no need for such imports. Only in case of lower societal allowance of onshore wind, or much higher electricity demand for heating, transportation and non-energetic industrial demand sectors there may be need for Western and Central Europe in wind energy supply from Northwest Russia.
  • ... The contribution of storage to covering the demand by storage is visualised in Figure 8. More details on the strong correlation of the solar PV share and the demand coverage share of batteries can be found in Bogdanov et al. [77]. The LUT Energy system model is further developed in its functionality, but for the results presented in this paper about 45% of the total primary energy demand is covered in the integrated scenario. ...
    Conference Paper
    The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
  • Technical Report
    Full-text available
    Technical Report "Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector", published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017 A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is feasible at every hour throughout the year and more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will. Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050 . The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050. Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is 52 €/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to 70 €/MWh in 2015. Solar PV and battery storage drive most of the 100% renewable electricity supply due to a significant decline in costs during the transition. Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally. Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. Solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050. Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly short-term (diurnal) storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage. 100% renewables bring GHG emissions in the electricity sector down to zero, drastically reduce total losses in power generation and create 36 million jobs by 2050. Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eq in 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines. The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system. Operation and maintenance jobs increase from 20% of the total direct energy jobs in 2015 to 48% of the total jobs in 2050 that implies more stable employment chances and economic growth globally. The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.
  • Conference Paper
    This work presents a pathway for the transition to a 100% renewable energy (RE) system by 2050 for Iran. An hourly resolved model is simulated to investigate the total power capacity required from 2015 to 2050 in 5-year time steps to fulfil the electricity demand for Iran. In addition, shares of various RE resources and storage technologies have been estimated for the applied years, and all periods before in 5-year time steps. The model takes the 2015 installed power plant capacities, corresponding lifetimes and total electrical energy demand to compute and optimize the mix of RE plants needed to be installed to achieve a 100% RE power system by 2050. The optimization is carried out on the basis of assumed costs and technological status of all energy technologies involved. Moreover, the role of storage technologies in the energy system, and integration of the power sector with desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors are examined. Our results reveal that RE technologies can fulfil all electricity demand by the year 2050 at a price level of about 32-44 €/MWhel depending on the sectorial integration. Moreover, the combination of solar PV and battery storage is found as a least cost solution after 2030 for Iran. 1. Introduction A transition to an energy system based on 100% renewable energy (RE) is not only possible but also is necessary to respond to rapidly increasing energy demand and address the current climate crisis. However, variability of renewable sources (in particular solar and wind) poses concerns regarding the reliability and cost of an energy system that derives a large fraction of its energy from these sources. This has led to the emergence of energy storage as a key technology in the management of larger shares of energy from renewable sources. Sustainable energy scenarios have been introduced and developed for various parts of the world to highlight possible future energy systems and broaden the perspectives of decision makers on what they should take into consideration [1], [2]. Examining renewable based energy scenarios in Iran is a challenging and interesting case study because of the following country characteristics:
  • On the Role of Solar Photovoltaics in Global Energy Transition Scenarios
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  • Desert power -perspectives on a sustainable power system for EUMENA
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  • Article
    Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-togas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination and 640 TWh LHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the leve-lized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWh LHV and 0.91 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system.
  • Thesis
    As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
  • Conference Paper
    A vast potential of renewable energy sources and a supportive regulatory environment that has been encouraging investments on renewable energy (RE) are driving the development of non-hydro renewable energy generation in South American countries. Therefore, the possibility to build cost competitive independent 100% RE systems is becoming a reality in a near future. New energy systems based on 100% RE in the year 2030 were calculated for South America using an hourly resolved energy system model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions and three different grid development levels were considered in three different scenarios. The integration of reverse osmosis water desalination and industrial natural gas electricity demand was studied in a forth scenario. The results show that different grid development levels lead to different optimal system designs and total electricity generation. However, all the studied scenarios are able to supply 1813 TWh of electricity, what corresponds to the electricity demand of the area in 2030. The integrated scenario is able to generate also the amount of electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination demand and 640 TWhLHV demand of synthetic natural gas. For energy storage, hydro dams will operate similar to battery storages diminishing the role of power-togas systems for seasonal storage, especially in a highly centralized grid scenario. In terms of cost, the total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is quite low for all the analyzed scenarios: it decreased from 62 €/MWh (for a highly decentralized grid scenario) to 56 €/MWh (for a highly centralized grid scenario). The integration of desalination and power-togas into the system has increased the system's flexibility and efficient usage of storage, reducing the total cost in 8% and the electric energy generation in 5%. From the results it can be concluded that 100% RE-based system is feasible for the year 2030 and with the cost assumptions used in this study more cost competitive than other existing alternatives.
  • Article
    Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
  • Conference Paper
    This paper determines a least cost electricity solution for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The power system discussed in this study is hourly resolved and based on 100% Renewable Energy (RE) technologies. Sub-Saharan Africa was subdivided into 16 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered according to the setup in high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid. One integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas production were also analysed. This study uncovers that RE is sufficient to cover 866.4 TWh estimated electricity demand for 2030 and additional electricity needed to fulfil 319 million m 3 of water desalination and 268 TWhLHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar PV and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) decreases from 57.8 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 54.7 €/MWh for a more centralized grid scenario. For the integrated scenario, including water desalination and synthetic natural gas demand, the levelised cost of gas and the levelised cost of water are 113.7 €/MWhLHV and 1.39 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 6% in total cost and 19% in electricity generation was realized as a result of integrating desalination and power-togas sectors into the system.
  • Conference Paper
    Renewable energy (RE) has been already viewed as a minor contributor in the final energy mix of North America due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent dramatic cost reductions and new initiatives using RE, particularly solar PV and wind energy, as a main energy source for the future energy mix of the world pave the way for enabling this source of energy to become cost competitive and beneficial in comparison to fossil fuels. Other alternatives such as nuclear energy and coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) cannot play an important role in the future of energy system, mainly due to safety and economic constraints for these technologies. Phasing out nuclear and fossil fuels is still under discussion, however the 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions agreed at COP21 in Paris clearly guides the pathway towards sustainability. Consequently, RE would be the only trustable energy source towards a clean and sustainable world. In this study, an hourly resolved model has been developed based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constraints with a bright perspective of RE power generation and demand for North America. The geographical, technical and economic potential of different types of RE resources in North America, including wind energy, solar PV, hydro, geothermal and biomass energy sources enable the option to build a Super Grid connection between different North American regions' energy resources to achieve synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. The North American region, including the US, Canada and Mexico in this paper, is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. These sub-regions are interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for North America in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Four scenarios have been evaluated according to different HVDC transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 63 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 53 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 42 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by around 6.6% in the energy system compared to the non-integrated sectors due to higher system efficiency enabled by more flexibility. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
  • Conference Paper
    The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable, access to all, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim of electricity generation. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy based system is simulated for this region for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis for an entire year. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand which was reflected as the system cost decreased by 5% and the total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy based system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than the nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
  • Conference Paper
    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comprised of 19 countries, is currently facing a serious challenge to supply their growing economies with secure, affordable and clean electricity. The MENA region holds a high share of proven crude oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Further, it is predicted to have increasing population growth, energy demand, urbanization and industrialization, each of which necessitates a comparable expansion of infrastructure, resulting in further increased energy demand. When planning this expansion, the effects of climate change, land use change and desertification must be taken into account. The MENA region has an excellent potential of renewable energy (RE) resources, particularly solar PV and wind energy, which can evolve to be the main future energy sources in this area. In addition, the costs of RE are expected to decrease relative to conventional energy sources, making a transition to RE across the region economically feasible. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for the MENA region in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Three scenarios have been evaluated according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 61 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 55 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 37 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by 6% in the system compared to the non-integrated sectors. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
  • Article
    In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
  • Conference Paper
    Increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including the fossil fuel based energy sector, emerge the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system as the way to stop pollution and global warming but also to reduce total energy system cost. Small population density and availability of various types of RE resources in Eurasian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising project of building a Super Grid connecting different Eurasian regions' energy resources to reach synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. For every sub-region it is defined a cost-optimal distributed and centralized mix of energy technologies and storage options, optimal capacities and hourly generation. Charge and discharge profiles of storages are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. System cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed. The results show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
  • Data
    Presentation on the occasion of the GÜNDER Workshop held as part of the 45th IEA PVPS Task 1 Meeting in Istanbul on October 27, 2015.
  • Article
    Full-text available
    This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report (IPCC-SRREN) assesses the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change. It covers the six most important renewable energy sources - bioenergy, solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. SRREN brings a broad spectrum of technology-specific experts together with scientists studying energy systems as a whole. Prepared following strict IPCC procedures, it presents an impartial assessment of the current state of knowledge: it is policy relevant but not policy prescriptive. SRREN is an invaluable assessment of the potential role of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, and academic researchers.
  • Article
    A clear consensus exists in German society that renewable energy resources have to play a dominant role in the future German energy supply system. However, many questions are still under discussion; for instance the relevance of the different technologies such as photovoltaic systems and wind energy converters installed offshore in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Concerns also exist about the cost of a future energy system mainly based on renewable energy. In the work presented here we tried to answer some of those questions. Guiding questions for this study were: (1) is it possible to meet the German energy demand with 100% renewable energy, considering the available technical potential of the main renewable energy resources? (2) what is the overall annual cost of such an energy system once it has been implemented? (3) what is the best combination of renewable energy converters, storage units, energy converters and energy-saving measures? In order to answer these questions, we carried out many simulation calculations using REMod-D, a model we developed for this purpose. This model is described in Part I of this publication. To date this model covers only part of the energy system, namely the electricity and heat sectors, which correspond to about 62% of Germany's current energy demand. The main findings of our work indicate that it is possible to meet the total electricity and heat demand (space heating, hot water) of the entire building sector with 100% renewable energy within the given technical limits. This is based on the assumption that the heat demand of the building sector is significantly reduced by at least 60% or more compared to today's demand. Another major result of our analysis shows that - once the transformation of the energy system has been completed - supplying electricity and heat only from renewables is no more expensive than the existing energy supply.
  • Article
    The electricity consumption in the ASEAN (Association of East Asian Nations) region is one of the fastest growing in the world and will lead to a dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the next decades. A decarbonization of the region's electricity supply is thus a very important measure when taking action on global climate change. This paper defines cost-optimal pathways towards a sustainable power system in the region by employing linear optimization. The proposed model simultaneously optimizes the required capacities and the hourly operation of generation, transmission, and storage. The obtained results show that all different kinds of renewable sources will have to be utilized, while none of them should have a share of more than one third. The findings give reason for setting up an ASEAN power grid, as it enables the transportation of electricity from the best sites to load centers and leads to a balancing of the fluctuations from wind and solar generation. We suggest fostering a diversified extension of renewables and to elaborate on political and technical solutions that enable the build up an transnational supergrid.
  • Conference Paper
    Full-text available
    Photovoltaic installations are usually guaranteed to operate for 25 to 30 years, with a warranty of 80% of initial performance remaining after this time. However, in order to determine the profitability of a project, it is important to estimate the performance of the photovoltaic modules over their lifetime, depending on their environment. In this study, a first version of an ageing model for photovoltaic systems is considered, taking into account the influence of the environmental stress factors, which are the temperature, the relative humidity, and the exposure to UV radiation. Another stress factor also needs to be taken into account: the module's voltage potential versus ground (Potential Induced Degradation). The impact of cell cracks on the modules is also included in the model, their impact over the years depending on the temperature, but mainly to thermal cycles, due to the differences in temperature between day and night (thermal dilatation). Accelerated Damp Heat tests, thermal cycling tests, PID tests and UV tests are interpreted and used for calibrating the model, in addition to other degradation studies taken from relevant literature. A simple model is first built for the corrosion, with the temperature and humidity as stress factors, considering only the maximum power degradation. A more advanced model is then built, considering the degradation of the two-diode model parameters. A model has been built for each degradation, that is to say corrosion (temperature and humidity), AR coating and EVA discoloration (UV exposure), PID causes (temperature, humidity and voltage), and cell cracks (Thermal cycling). First simulations have been done, with weather data from the south of France (Mediterranean climate), Miami (hot and humid), and Dubai (hot and dry) showing that the power output after 30 years is still above the warranty limit of 80%.
  • Article
    Full-text available
    A primary endeavor of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to synthesize and analyze data that is useful to the renewable energy industry on a global scale [1]. One goal of POWER is to provide data to the renewable energy industry in quantities and terms compatible with this industries design and engineering tools and for locations where ground site data is not readily available. The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set and web site have been a valuable resource for a growing user community involved in renewable energy. The POWER project continues to improve upon information available via the SSE web site. This paper describes the availability of higher spatial resolution assimilated data in a new release of SSE (i.e. SSE 6.0) that extends the period of coverage to 22 years.
  • Conference Paper
    Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
  • Article
    This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.