Световната финансова криза от перспективата на поведенческите финанси (The Global Financial Crisis from the Perspective of Behavioral Finance)

Abstract

In this article we analyze the causes and the specific development of the global financial and economic crises from 2007 – 2008 using concepts from the emerging field of behavior finance. Explanation of the failure of financial markets is sought, on the basis of prospect theory, in cognitive biases and errors studied in behavioral research. Evidence refuting the postulates of the efficient market hypothesis is summarized to substantiate the need of a more realistic theory grounded in predictable patterns of 'bounded rational' market behavior.

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ГОДИШНИК НА СОФИЙСКИЯ УНИВЕРСИТЕТ “СВ. КЛИМЕНТ ОХРИДСКИ”
СТОПАНСКИ ФАКУЛТЕТ
Том 13, 2016
ANNUAL OF SOFIA UNIVERSITY “ST. KLIMENT OHRIDSKI”
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
Volume 13, 2016



Софийски университет „Св. Климент Охридски”, Стопански факултет
Катедра Икономика
e-mail: 
Teodor Sedlarski, Gergana Dimitrova   




  
 

Key words:


         


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
Седларски, Димитрова

поведенчески финанси




  
велика рецесияGreat recession
Поведенческата икономикаbehavioral economics

Barberis, Thaler   
        Седларски
             
 



 








метричният ефект

избягването на удръжки

Ефектът на Шелинг


 



           
  

 






McCaffery, Slemrod, КанеманАриели Менгов
КуигинШърмърТалер, Сънстейн,
      


   
  
  











     
  Ефектът на притежанието
 
      



обединяват сходни категорииефект на изолация

 



McCaffery, Slemrodефекта на дисагрегация

 





McCaffery, Slemrod,



 

  






  



Szyszka










Szyszka
 


Szyszka







  
  



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
  
Szyszka
 


           

  


Szyszka
  

 




 


   Szyszka
McCarthy
      







Szyszka

 
  



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
хипотезата за ефективните пазари






McDonald
Куигин
 




„създавай и пла-
сирай“  

 



McDonald

      
homo economicus          
        


         

 






  


McDonald

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




McCarthy




Shefrin, Statman


Shefrin, StatmanКуигин


рационални пазари (rational markets)

непобедими пазариunbeatable markets








Shefrin, Statman
         

  
  
 


    

Shefrin, Statman


  





 
  
  
Shefrin,
Statman





Shefrin, Statman
  
         


 
(Shefrin, Statman,


  

        




Shefrin, Statman


 

        



  

    

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

  
  

         
  
  

Shefrin, Statman
 
         
  
          
  
      
     
 





Shefrin, Statman

   


• Грешки на закъсняла преценкаhindsight errors
    



    
       

 
    
          




    conrmation errors    
        



   
          Shefrin,
Statman
  

  

  



   





Shefrin, Statman          
  









  


Shefrin, Statman
 


 







      


 

       



   



 
евристиката за представителностСед-
ларски & Димитрова

   
  

      прекалена самоувереност 
Седларски & Димитрова
        

 
       

Barberis
 

 




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 




Barberis




 
  









 Лоши стимули     

   


 Лоши модели


 Лош късмет       

  
  
Barberis
манипулират възгле-
дите си
 Barberis
  когнитивен дисонанс

BarberisБъргърAkerold, Dickens,



    

 





BarberisКуигин
АриелиТалебRabin
         
   


       
 




Barberis

 
  
  институционалните 
   



Barberis
психологическитеусилващи механизми
          
   

  

Избягването на неопределеността  

   
KnightNort



хипотезата за компетентността
       
   

  
     Barberis     теорията на
перспективите
Kahneman, Tversky
           
 
         


BarberisRabin
       




. 





ефект на ограничено рамкиране narrow framing effect

менталното счетоводство
  










Szyszka



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  

  

левъриджleverage




Szyszka

пре-
калена самоувереност (overcondence)
• Самооценка над средното ниво
  
      Седларски, Димитрова 
АриелиШърмърТалеб
• Ефект на калибриране 


  


           

 


Szyszka
• Илюзия за контрол   

        
Szyszka
 пожелателно мислене




Ариели



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



Szyszka

заблудата за собст-
вен приносself-attribution bias


заблуда напотвърждението conrmation
bias
Szyszka


   
  



Szyszka
        
   стадното поведение   
herding  


   
Szyszka
 






 
Szyszka

Keynes
      


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  
  



Szyszka
   
инфор-
мационни каскади










Szyszka





 

Szyszka
      




   


Szyszka
         
 
  


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 

       
     


 
        
   
  
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 




      


  





Szyszka




 









Szyszka

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
 







ефект на диспозицияСедларски & Димитрова



   
  
 
          

  
Szyszka
      
 
  
  



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
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       
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



 


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
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

  

  

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











        
Hayashi






Hayashi





  

Куигин
      

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


Литература
 Предвидимо ирационални. Кои са силите, формиращи нашите решения


Покана за социология
Мисленето

Зомби икономикс

Вземане на решения при риск и неопределеност
Пазарното мислене


Нова институционална икономика

Соци-
ологически проблеми
  

Черният лебед: Въздействието на слабо вероятното в живота и на
пазара.
Nudge – Побутване. По-добрите решения за здраве, благосъ-
стояние и щастие.
   
American Economic Review, 72(3), 
Handbook of the Economics
of Finance   Financial Markets and Asset Pricing   

Financial Innovation:
Too Much or Too Little?
Quarterly Journal of Economics

Journal of
Finance


              
  Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic
Association,
             
Econometrica
The General Theory of Employment, Interat and Money


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

     
International Tax and Public Finance
           Economic
Papers


The
2012 Orlando International Academic Conference Proceedings
   

Journal of Economic Literature, 36(1)
Behavioral Finance in the Financial Crisis: Market Efciency,
Mynsky, and Keynes
   
   Journal of Business Venturing

Journal of CENTRUM Cathedra

        Journal of Behavioral Decisionmaking, 
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
Forschung für die Praxis
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Постъпила на 09.12.2013 г.