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Abstract

Carbon emissions from land-use changes in tropical dry forest systems are poorly understood, although they are likely globally significant. The South American Chaco has recently emerged as a hot spot of agricultural expansion and intensification, as cattle ranching and soybean cultivation expand into forests, and as soybean cultivation replaces grazing lands. Still, our knowledge of the rates and spatial patterns of these land-use changes and how they affected carbon emissions remains partial. We used the Landsat satellite image archive to reconstruct land-use change over the past 30 years and applied a carbon bookkeeping model to quantify how these changes affected carbon budgets. Between 1985 and 2013, more than 142 000 km(2) of the Chaco's forests, equaling 20% of all forest, was replaced by croplands (38.9%) or grazing lands (61.1%). Of those grazing lands that existed in 1985, about 40% were subsequently converted to cropland. These land-use changes resulted in substantial carbon emissions, totaling 824 Tg C between 1985 and 2013, and 46.2 Tg C for 2013 alone. The majority of these emissions came from forest-to-grazing-land conversions (68%), but post-deforestation land-use change triggered an additional 52.6 Tg C. Although tropical dry forests are less carbon-dense than moist tropical forests, carbon emissions from land-use change in the Chaco were similar in magnitude to those from other major tropical deforestation frontiers. Our study thus highlights the urgent need for an improved monitoring of the often overlooked tropical dry forests and savannas, and more broadly speaking the value of the Landsat image archive for quantifying carbon fluxes from land change.

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... As agriculture has been expanding rapidly into forests in the Argentine Chaco over our observation period, this required us to match the timing of each disturbance with an agricultural map from that time period. To do so, we used a time series of land-cover maps in 5-year intervals (1990,1995,2000,2005,2010, and 2015) based on Landsat satellite imagery [72]. We then calculated 500 m buffers up to a maximum distance of 4000 m around fields and summarized the area of disturbance patches by agent and buffer. ...
... This incentivized silvopastures [74], which is likely captured in our partial clearing class. Generally, the strong increase in partial clearings we found for the 2000s corresponds well with other findings [57,72] that highlight an acceleration of forest loss due to the agriculture boom in this period. ...
... In this study, we demonstrated the benefit of the unique Landsat archive to assess maps, at a high spatial and temporal resolution, of different forest disturbances agents, and to separate anthropogenic from natural disturbances for the entire Argentine Dry Chaco. A number of studies focused on mapping or quantifying the conversion of forests to agriculture [e.g., 56,57,72], and a few investigated the changes in the remaining forests, such as degradation [50], logging [49], and fires [79] in regions of the Chaco. However, this is, to our knowledge, the first forest disturbance agent attribution for the whole Argentine Dry Chaco. ...
Article
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Forest degradation in the tropics is a widespread, yet poorly understood phenomenon. This is particularly true for tropical and subtropical dry forests, where a variety of disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic, affect forest canopies. Addressing forest degradation thus requires a spatially-explicit understanding of the causes of disturbances. Here, we apply an approach for attributing agents of forest disturbance across large areas of tropical dry forests, based on the Landsat image time series. Focusing on the 489,000 km2 Argentine Dry Chaco, we derived metrics on the spectral characteristics and shape of disturbance patches. We then used these metrics in a random forests classification framework to estimate the area of logging, fire, partial clearing, riparian changes and drought. Our results highlight that partial clearing was the most widespread type of forest disturbance from 1990–to 2017, extending over 5520 km2 (±407 km2), followed by fire (4562 ± 388 km2) and logging (3891 ± 341 km2). Our analyses also reveal marked trends over time, with partial clearing generally becoming more prevalent, whereas fires declined. Comparing the spatial patterns of different disturbance types against accessibility indicators showed that fire and logging prevalence was higher closer to fields, while smallholder homesteads were associated with less burning. Roads were, surprisingly, not associated with clear trends in disturbance prevalence. To our knowledge, this is the first attribution of disturbance agents in tropical dry forests based on satellite-based indicators. While our study reveals remaining uncertainties in this attribution process, our framework has considerable potential for monitoring tropical dry forest disturbances at scale. Tropical dry forests in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia are some of the fastest disappearing ecosystems on the planet, and more robust monitoring of forest degradation in these regions is urgently needed.
... Despite this, tropical dry forests remain weakly protected and are lost at alarming rates for agricultural expansion, particularly in Asia and South America (Miles et al., 2006;Parr et al., 2014). This results in major carbon emissions (Baumann et al., 2017a;Portillo-Quintero et al., 2015), however, the magnitude of these emissions remains unclear for most dry forest regions (Grainger and Kim, 2020). A central reason for this is unreliable or missing information on how much carbon is currently stored in dry forests (Mitchard et al., 2013). ...
... One key tropical dry forest region is the South American Dry Chaco, extending into Argentina, Bolivia, and Paraguay (TNC, 2005;Kuemmerle et al., 2017). Drastic agricultural expansion has turned the Chaco into a global deforestation hotspot (Hansen et al., 2013), with carbon emissions estimated to be comparable to those from the Amazon or Borneo (Harris et al., 2012;Baumann et al., 2017a;Taylor, 2015). This renders the Chaco a priority region for global efforts to reduce or halt deforestation-driven carbon emissions. ...
... Large areas of natural vegetation have already been converted in the Dry Chaco (Baumann et al., 2017a), mainly due to the expansion of agriculture. This trend may further continue, as agriculture in the region is highly profitable (Piquer-Rodríguez et al., 2018) and protected areas cover only 10% of the Chacoan forests (Baumann et al., 2016;Fehlenberg et al., 2017, Fig. 1A). ...
Article
Tropical dry forests harbor major carbon stocks but are disappearing rapidly across the globe as agriculture expands into them. Unfortunately, carbon emissions from deforestation in dry forests remain poorly understood as high spatial-temporal and vertical heterogeneity complicate biomass mapping. Here, we use a novel Gradient Boosted Regression framework to test the relative gains of combining optical (MODIS) and radar (Sentinel 1) time series, as well as lidar-based (GEDI) canopy-height information, to map biomass in tropical dry forests. We apply our approach across the entire Dry Chaco ecoregion (about 800,000 km²), using an extensive ground dataset of forest inventory plots for training and validation, to map above-ground biomass (AGB) for the year 2019. Our best AGB model had an r² of 0.89 (RMSE = 15.1 t/ha) with an estimated AGB in remaining natural vegetation of 4.65 Gt (+/− 0.9 Gt). Seasonal metrics from EVI time-series, combined with seasonal Sentinel 1 metrics, had the highest predictive power, while adding GEDI-based canopy height did not improve models. Our resulting AGB maps had a much higher level of agreement with independent ground-data than global AGB products (agreements between r² = 0.07–0.41), which all suffer from a huge, up to 14-fold, underestimation of AGB in the Chaco. Most of the remaining AGB stored in Chaco woodlands is found in Argentina (2.4 Gt AGB), followed by Paraguay (1.13 Gt AGB) and Bolivia (1.11 Gt AGB). Our results also highlight that 71% of the remaining AGB is located outside protected areas, and around half of the remaining AGB occurs on land utilized by traditional communities. Together, our analyses reveal substantial risk of continued high carbon emissions should agricultural expansion progress. Considerable co-benefits appear to exist between protecting traditional livelihoods and carbon stocks. Our map, the most accurate and fine-scale AGB map for this global deforestation hotspot, can serve as a basis for land-use and conservation planning aimed at leveraging such co-benefits. More broadly, our analyses reveal the considerable potential of combining time series of optical and radar data for a more reliable mapping of above-ground biomass in tropical dry forests and savannas.
... To measure the impact of human activities on the ecosystems, some studies use secondary data (10% of our studies), usually in the form of land use data, and employ proxies for ecosystem services provided by different land cover/uses (Baumann et al., 2017;Meehan and Gratton, 2016). To provide an indication of the high level of interdisciplinarity required to measure the impact of soybean production on ecosystem services, we show the set of unique indicators that have been used to measure impacts included in our dataset (Table 10). ...
... Land use changes such as deforestation and clearance of other native vegetation, e.g. grassland and dryland savannah, have negative impacts on the supply of various ecosystem services such as climate regulation (Baumann et al., 2017;D'Acunto et al., 2014;Heimpel et al., 2013;Villarino et al., 2017), wild food provision and raw materials (Krapovickas et al., 2016;Malkamäki et al., 2016) as well as recreational and touristic opportunities offered by natural areas (Saraiva Farinha et al., 2019). Baumann et al. (2017) looks at deforestation patterns for the Chaco region, which includes Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay, over a 30year period and found that the Argentinian part of the region has been substantially deforested due to cropland and pasture expansion. ...
... grassland and dryland savannah, have negative impacts on the supply of various ecosystem services such as climate regulation (Baumann et al., 2017;D'Acunto et al., 2014;Heimpel et al., 2013;Villarino et al., 2017), wild food provision and raw materials (Krapovickas et al., 2016;Malkamäki et al., 2016) as well as recreational and touristic opportunities offered by natural areas (Saraiva Farinha et al., 2019). Baumann et al. (2017) looks at deforestation patterns for the Chaco region, which includes Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay, over a 30year period and found that the Argentinian part of the region has been substantially deforested due to cropland and pasture expansion. The change in total carbon emissions associated with deforestation has been estimated by applying conversion factors from primary data studies to land use/cover types. ...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Systematic review of social impacts of soybean production
... To measure the impact of human activities on the ecosystems, some studies use secondary data (10% of our studies), usually in the form of land use data, and employ proxies for ecosystem services provided by different land cover/uses (Baumann et al., 2017;Meehan and Gratton, 2016). To provide an indication of the high level of interdisciplinarity required to measure the impact of soybean production on ecosystem services, we show the set of unique indicators that have been used to measure impacts included in our dataset (Table 10). ...
... Land use changes such as deforestation and clearance of other native vegetation, e.g. grassland and dryland savannah, have negative impacts on the supply of various ecosystem services such as climate regulation (Baumann et al., 2017;D'Acunto et al., 2014;Heimpel et al., 2013;Villarino et al., 2017), wild food provision and raw materials (Krapovickas et al., 2016;Malkamäki et al., 2016) as well as recreational and touristic opportunities offered by natural areas (Saraiva Farinha et al., 2019). Baumann et al. (2017) looks at deforestation patterns for the Chaco region, which includes Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay, over a 30year period and found that the Argentinian part of the region has been substantially deforested due to cropland and pasture expansion. ...
... grassland and dryland savannah, have negative impacts on the supply of various ecosystem services such as climate regulation (Baumann et al., 2017;D'Acunto et al., 2014;Heimpel et al., 2013;Villarino et al., 2017), wild food provision and raw materials (Krapovickas et al., 2016;Malkamäki et al., 2016) as well as recreational and touristic opportunities offered by natural areas (Saraiva Farinha et al., 2019). Baumann et al. (2017) looks at deforestation patterns for the Chaco region, which includes Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay, over a 30year period and found that the Argentinian part of the region has been substantially deforested due to cropland and pasture expansion. The change in total carbon emissions associated with deforestation has been estimated by applying conversion factors from primary data studies to land use/cover types. ...
Article
Full-text available
This report, as part of UKRI GCRF TRADE Hub’s work on the impact of global agricultural trade on people, presents a systematic literature review of the direct and indirect social impacts of soybean agricultural production for trade. The report employs the concept of multi-dimensional well-being to classify the various direct social impacts that have been found in the literature and the concept of ecosystem services to classify the indirect social impacts, i.e., contribution to well-being of natural ecosystems.
... Recent advances in remote sensing and ecological modelling allow us to reconstruct detailed land-use change histories, as well as the distributions of species and the spatial footprints of threats for multiple species across several decades and large regions (Baumann et al., 2017;Benítez-López et al., 2019;Romero-Muñoz et al., 2020). ...
... The Gran Chaco (hereafter 'Chaco') in South America is one of the most at at-risk regions globally, due to rapid expansion of cattle ranching and soy cultivation WWF, 2015). The region is a global hotspot of habitat conversion and defaunation (Baumann et al., 2017;Romero-Muñoz et al., 2020), yet despite calls for assessing the facets of biodiversity in this region (Periago et al., 2014), no such assessment exists. ...
... The Chaco is rich in biodiversity, with over 150 mammal species, 500 birds, and over 3,000 plant species (TNC, FVS, FDSC, & WCS, 2005). Over the last decades, the Chaco has become a global deforestation hotspot, losing 20% of its forests since 1985 due to the expanding croplands, mainly in Argentina, and livestock ranching, mainly in Paraguay and Bolivia (Baumann et al., 2017). These pressures are likely impacting ecosystem functioning over large scales (Periago et al., 2014), although this has not been yet quantified. ...
Article
Global biodiversity is under high and rising anthropogenic pressure. Yet, how the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional facets of biodiversity are affected by different threats over time is unclear. This is particularly true for the two main drivers of the current biodiversity crisis: habitat destruction and overexploitation. We provide the first long-term assessment of multifaceted biodiversity changes caused by these threats for any tropical region. Focussing on larger mammals in South America's 1.1 million km2 Gran Chaco region, we assessed changes in multiple biodiversity facets between 1985 and 2015, determined which threats drive those changes, and identified remaining key areas for all biodiversity facets. Using habitat and threat maps, we found, first, that between 1985 and 2015 taxonomic (TD), phylogenetic (PD) and functional (FD) diversity all declined drastically across over half of the area assessed. FD declined about 50% faster than TD and PD, and these declines were mainly driven by species loss, rather than species turnover. Second, habitat destruction, hunting, and both threats together contributed ~57%, ~37%, and ~6% to overall facet declines, respectively. However, hunting pressure increased where TD and PD declined most strongly, whereas habitat destruction disproportionally contributed to FD declines. Third, just 23% of the Chaco would have to be protected to safeguard the top 17% of all three facets. Our findings uncover a widespread impoverishment of mammal species richness, evolutionary history, and ecological functions across broad areas of the Chaco due to increasing habitat destruction and hunting. Moreover, our results pinpoint key areas that should be preserved and managed to maintain all facets of mammalian diversity across the Chaco. More generally, our work highlights how long-term changes in biodiversity facets can be assessed and attributed to specific threats, to better understand human impacts on biodiversity and to guide conservation planning to mitigate them.
... The expansion of commodity agriculture has been particularly rapid in the Gran Chaco (hereafter: Chaco), the world's largest tropical dry forest extending across Argentina, Bolivia, and Paraguay. This region harbors major carbon stocks (18), unique biodiversity (19), and is home to many Indigenous and non-Indigenous smallholder communities (20). The Chaco has recently become a global deforestation hotspot, which brings with it serious environmental impacts such as globally significant carbon emissions (18) and major biodiversity loss (21). ...
... This region harbors major carbon stocks (18), unique biodiversity (19), and is home to many Indigenous and non-Indigenous smallholder communities (20). The Chaco has recently become a global deforestation hotspot, which brings with it serious environmental impacts such as globally significant carbon emissions (18) and major biodiversity loss (21). Although there is increasing evidence that conflicts over land have become widespread (11,22), information about the social costs of this expansion is scarce (7,20,23). ...
... One in five forest-smallholder homesteads disappeared in the Chaco during a period of drastic deforestation (18). It is important to highlight that deforestation in the Chaco during our study period has almost exclusively been associated with the expansion of large-scale, commodity agriculture (7,18,33,34). ...
Article
Significance Millions of people globally rely on forest-based resources for their livelihoods, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. Deforestation is often hypothesized to diminish forest-dependent communities’ resource base and to push them toward more-marginal environments, but such ecological marginalization has rarely been quantified. We developed an approach to identify homesteads of forest-dependent people and to track their resource base over 30 y across the entire South American Gran Chaco (1.1 million km ² ). This highlighted that forest-dependent people are widespread across the Chaco forests, that their numbers have declined drastically since the 1980s, and that expanding commodity agriculture diminishes their resource base. Sustainability assessments must urgently consider forest-dependent people better, and our study provides a way forward to do so.
... Although human impacts on biodiversity across broad tropical regions are often assessed by monitoring deforestation (Gibbs et al. 2010;Hansen et al. 2013;Baumann et al. 2017), the loss of animal species and populations, or defaunation, is more cryptic, and therefore more challenging to monitor at broad scales (Dirzo et al. 2014). However, defaunation is a widespread and pervasive component of the current biodiversity crisis (Dirzo et al. 2014 (Ceballos et al. 2017). ...
... Fortunately, opportunities are increasing to reconstruct changes of past environments through analyses of historical satellite imagery of land-cover (Hansen et al. 2013;Baumann et al. 2017;Song et al. 2018b). Such reconstructions of the environment can be linked with time-calibrated habitat models that use historical biodiversity data to consistently reconstruct species' habitats over time (Nogués-Bravo 2009;Kuemmerle et al. 2012). ...
... In recent decades, the Gran Chaco has become a global centre of agricultural commodity production, mainly beef and soybeans, both for domestic and, increasingly, for international markets (Gasparri et al. 2013; (Hansen et al. 2013;Baumann et al. 2017;, and one of the most threatened regions globally (Hoekstra et al. 2005;WWF 2015). Furthermore, other activities, such as extensive livestock grazing, selective logging, and charcoal production have further degraded large areas where forest remains (Grau et al. 2008;Rueda et al. 2015). ...
Thesis
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Die Hauptursachen für die derzeitige weltweite Krise der biologischen Vielfalt sind Lebensraumzerstörung und Übernutzung. Wir wissen jedoch nicht, wie sich diese beiden Faktoren einzeln und zusammen auf die verschiedenen Aspekte biologischer Vielfalt auswirken und wie sie sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. Da beide Bedrohungen weit verbreitet sind, verhindern dies die Entwicklung wirksamer Schutzstrategien. Das übergeordnete Ziel dieser Arbeit war räumliche und zeitliche Veränderungsmuster der Auswirkungen von Lebensraumzerstörung und Übernutzung auf die biologische Vielfalt zu verstehen. Ich habe diese Bedrohungsgeographien mit hoher räumlicher Auflösung und über drei Jahrzehnte hinweg für verschiedene Aspekte biologischer Vielfalt untersucht: Arten, Lebensgemeinschaften und taxonomische, phylogenetische und funktionale Facetten biologischer Vielfalt. Ich konzentrierte mich auf den 1,1 Millionen km² großen Gran Chaco, den größten tropischen Trockenwald der Welt und einen globalen Entwaldungs-Hotspot. Meine Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich im Laufe von 30 Jahren die räumlichen Auswirkungen der einzelnen Bedrohungen auf größere Gebiete ausdehnten als nur auf die abgeholzte Fläche. Dies führte zu einem Verlust an hochwertigen und sicheren Gebieten für den Jaguar, die gesamte Großsäugergemeinschaft und alle Facetten der Säugetiervielfalt. Beide Bedrohungen trugen wesentlich zum Rückgang biologischer Vielfalt bei, ihre relative Bedeutung variierte jedoch je nach Art und Facette der biologischen Vielfalt. Zudem haben die Gebiete, in denen beide Bedrohungen zusammenwirken, im Laufe der Zeit zugenommen, was den Verlust der biologischen Vielfalt wahrscheinlich noch verschlimmert hat. Diese Arbeit unterstreicht, wie wichtig es ist, die Auswirkungen mehrerer Bedrohungen im Laufe der Zeit gemeinsam zu bewerten, um den menschlichen Einfluss auf die biologische Vielfalt besser verstehen zu können und wirksame Schutzstrategien zu finden.
... To design evidence-based policy and mitigation measures, knowledge of agriculture-environment trade-offs is needed, and such knowledge is particularly sparse in the world's tropical and subtropical dry forests and savannas (hereafter: dry forests). Many dry forest regions include deforestation frontiers, particularly the South American Cerrado, Chaco, and Chiquitania regions (Baumann et al., 2017;Strassburg et al., 2017;Romero-Muñoz et al., 2019). Given the escalating threats to the values of dry forest across the globe, these regions are in dire need of improved land-use and conservation planning (Miles et al., 2006;Parr et al., 2014). ...
... The Argentinean Dry Chaco is a particularly interesting region to explore agriculture-environment tradeoffs. The expansion of cattle ranching and soybean production destined for international markets have turned this region into a global deforestation hotspot (Baumann et al., 2017;Kuemmerle et al., 2017), with major impacts on biodiversity (Periago et al., 2015;Romero-Muñoz et al., 2020), and globally-relevant carbon emissions (Baumann et al., 2017). Previous work on agricultureenvironment trade-offs has focused on local scales, yielding diverging results about what land-use strategy might mitigate these trade-offs best (Mastrangelo and Gavin, 2012;Macchi et al., 2013). ...
... The Argentinean Dry Chaco is a particularly interesting region to explore agriculture-environment tradeoffs. The expansion of cattle ranching and soybean production destined for international markets have turned this region into a global deforestation hotspot (Baumann et al., 2017;Kuemmerle et al., 2017), with major impacts on biodiversity (Periago et al., 2015;Romero-Muñoz et al., 2020), and globally-relevant carbon emissions (Baumann et al., 2017). Previous work on agricultureenvironment trade-offs has focused on local scales, yielding diverging results about what land-use strategy might mitigate these trade-offs best (Mastrangelo and Gavin, 2012;Macchi et al., 2013). ...
Article
Strong trade-offs between agriculture and the environment occur in deforestation frontiers, particularly in the world's rapidly disappearing tropical and subtropical dry forests. Pathways to mitigate these trade-offs are often unclear, as well as how deforestation or different policies alter the option space of available pathways. Using a spatial optimization framework based on linear programming, we develop a landscape-scale possibility frontier describing trade-offs between agricultural profit, biodiversity, and carbon stock for the Argentinean Dry Chaco, a global deforestation hotspot. We use this framework to assess how current land-use zoning, as well as past and future land-use-trajectories, alter the option space to minimize trade-offs between biodiversity, carbon, and agriculture. Our analyses yield four major insights. First, we found substantial co-benefits between biodiversity and carbon, yet strong trade-offs of both with agriculture. Second, development according to the current zoning could lead to highly suboptimal socio-ecological outcomes; our analysis pinpoints how this zoning could be improved. Third, high landscape-scale multifunctionality can be achieved using different land-use strategies, but maintaining >40% of forest is essential in all of them, and silvopasture systems appear to be central for achieving high overall multifunctionality. Finally, our results suggest the window of opportunity is closing rapidly: recent land-use changes since 2000 have rapidly moved the Chaco within the option space, with forest extent declining towards critical thresholds for maintaining balanced, multifunctional landscapes. Our results emphasize that the time for sustainability planning in the Chaco is now. More broadly, we show how multi-criteria optimization can describe dynamic trade-offs between agriculture and the environment at landscape and regional scales. This can help to identify land-system tipping points that, once crossed, would inhibit more sustainable futures, and policies to avoid such potential traps.
... Debido a esto, las estimaciones de flujos de carbono en las principales formaciones boscosas del mundo, han cobrado importancia dentro de un contexto de cambio climático y aumento de las emisiones de carbono por deforestación y degradación de bosques (Pan et al. 2011, Baccini et al. 2012. Entre las principales regiones boscosas que han sido deforestadas en las últimas décadas, la región del Chaco seco en Sudamérica ocupó uno de los primeros lugares a nivel global denotado por la gran emisión de carbono de esta región (Hansen et al. 2013, Baumann et al. 2017. ...
... A nivel global, el fuego y el uso del suelo antropogénico, reducen el almacenamiento de carbono de la vegetación, la productividad primaria neta y el tiempo de retorno (Lasslop et al. 2020). De igual manera, el pastoreo por ganado consume en promedio un 15 % a nivel global la productividad primaria en las áreas pastoreadas, y muchas veces este consumo viene acompañado por cambios de uso del suelo y extensión de áreas con pasturas (Fetzel et al. 2017 En las últimas décadas, la región del Chaco seco enfrenta procesos de alta deforestación con impactos en las emisiones de carbono Hansen et al., 2013;Baumann et al., 2017). Los bosques del Chaco seco se encuentran en diversos usos del suelo, que van desde avance de la frontera agrícola, ganadería productiva (i.e., pasturas y sistemas silvopastoriles), ganadería de subsistencia como los puestos ganaderos, extracción de leña, carbón vegetal, y aprovechamiento selectivo de maderas valiosas , Rueda et al. 2015, Fernández et al. 2020. ...
... Los datos climáticos analizados para el período de años 1970-2000 unidades forman un mosaico a escala regional (Cabrera 1976. En los últimos 30 años, el área de estudio ha tenido cambios en el régimen climático y los disturbios naturales principalmente en la frecuencia de fuegos, y la transformación e intensificación de usos de la tierra (Bravo et al., 2010;Vallejos et al., 2015;Baumann et al., 2017;Gasparri et al., 2008). Esto se ve reflejado en un mosaico a nivel de paisaje y a escala local (Carranza et al. 2015). ...
Thesis
Full-text available
Ciclo de carbono en biomasa de bosque con relación al régimen de disturbios en el Chaco seco argentino TESIS PRESENTADA COMO REQUISITO PARA OBTENER EL GRADO DE DOCTOR EN CIENCIAS Y TECNOLOGÍAS FORESTALES por Dante Ernesto Loto Licenciado en Ciencias Biológicas.
... In Latin America, pasture and cropland expansion accounted for about half of forest loss between 1985 and 2018 (Zalles et al., 2021). The conversion of forests to agriculture has caused severe impacts on biodiversity (Macchi et al., 2020), carbon sequestration (Baumann et al., 2017;Harris et al., 2021;Villarino et al., 2017), and other ecosystem services (e.g., Barral et al., 2020). ...
... Most studies have used deforestation as an indicator of the expansion trends and spatial extent of commodity frontiers (Arvor et al., 2013;le Polain de Waroux et al., 2018;Walker, 2003). Land-cover changes have also been used as indicators of environmental degradation, namely of biodiversity loss, habitat fragmentation, and reduction in carbon storage capacities (Baumann et al., 2017;Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2015;Piquer-Rodríguez et al., 2015) and, to a lesser extent, of displacement pressures on local populations (Paolasso et al., 2012). However, with the exception of a few studies that have mapped the location of large-scale land deals (e.g., Anseeuw et al., 2012;Messerli et al., 2014), the spatial and temporal distribution of land control dynamics occurring within commodity frontiers have received limited attention (but see Faingerch et al., 2021). ...
... The shift towards intensive production of agricultural commodities by capitalized agribusinesses has resulted in the development of a number of commodity frontiers, the expansion of which have had profound impacts in the Argentine region of the Gran Chaco (Brown et al., 2006). Between 1985 and 2013, more than 142 000 km 2 of the Chaco's forests was replaced by croplands (38.9%) or grazing lands (61.1%) (Baumann et al., 2017). ...
Article
The rapid expansion of commodity agriculture worldwide is threatening forest ecosystems and the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on them. Forest-dwelling smallholders in agricultural frontier regions are facing mounting pressures due to changes in land control, notably through the privatization and enclosure of natural resources. Impacts of agricultural expansion on smallholders are often approximated by measuring deforestation, yet changes in land control and associated pressures on smallholder livelihoods occur well beyond the limits of deforested areas. We propose a novel approach to evaluate changes in access to land for smallholders stemming from gradual changes in land control along commodity frontiers. We apply this approach in the Argentine Gran Chaco, a region that has experienced amongst the highest global rates of deforestation for agriculture in recent years. Our findings suggest that access to natural resources for smallholders has been reduced far beyond what would be expected if only looking at deforestation, and that the degree to which access has decreased differs between livelihood activities. As such, this study highlights the fact that forest smallholders are likely facing pressures to move or shift their livelihood strategies well in advance of the actual conversion of forest in their immediate vicinity.
... The evidence of negative impacts on freedom of choice and social relations are often related to land appropriation and conflicts over land ownership which can lead to displacement of informal landowners (Baumann et al., 2017;Busscher et al., 2020;Cardozo et al., 2016;Krapovickas et al., 2016). Studies from Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil, where almost all soybean production happens, show that the persistence of a weak land tenure system and the high presence of informal land ownership rights facilitate land appropriation and violent displacement of smallholder farmers (Busscher et al., 2020;Cardozo et al., 2016;Sauer, 2018). ...
... Land use changes such as deforestation and clearance of other native vegetation, e.g. grassland and dryland savannah, have documented negative impacts on the supply of various ecosystem services such as climate regulation (Baumann et al., 2017;D'Acunto et al., 2014;Heimpel et al., 2013;Villarino et al., 2017), wild food provision and raw materials (Krapovickas et al., 2016;Malkamäki et al., 2016), as well as recreation and tourism opportunities offered by natural areas (Saraiva Farinha et al., 2019). Baumann et al. (2017) study deforestation patterns in the Chaco region, which includes Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay, over a 30-year period and find that the Argentinian part of the region has been substantially deforested due to cropland and pasture expansion. ...
... Maydana et al. (2020) assess both water quantity and quality regulations under alternative future modelled scenarios alternative management regimes (agribusiness vs conservation agriculture) while Darré et al. (2019) perform a similar analysis of current agricultural practices in Uruguay. To measure the impact of human activities on the ecosystems, some studies use secondary data (10% of our studies), usually in the form of land use data, and employ proxies for ecosystem services provided by different land cover/uses (Baumann et al., 2017;Meehan and Gratton, 2016). ...
Article
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International trade in soybean has been increasing exponentially over the last 30 years, stimulating agricultural expansion and intensification, primarily in South America. Trade in soybean has been promoted by national and international agencies to stimulate economic development in low- and middle-income countries. Trade in soybean has generated an increase in GDP and average income in producing countries, but soybean production is also linked to negative effects on the well-being of local populations, such as land appropriation and increased social conflicts among communities. In addition, soybean production is linked to extensive deforestation and clearance of natural vegetation as well as water pollution due to intensive agricultural practices, which in turn has negative impacts on human well-being. As such, more information is needed to understand the range of negative and positive impacts of soybean production on people and the environment. This study presents a systematic literature review of the direct and indirect social-economic impacts of soybean agricultural production for trade. We employ the concept of multi-dimensional well-being to classify the various direct social impacts that have been found in the literature and the concept of ecosystem services to classify indirect social impacts, as the contribution of natural ecosystems to human well-being. The main finding of the review is that the empirical evidence for direct social impacts of soy production is scarce and mixed in terms of direction of impact. More tangible dimensions such as income, nutrition and living standards are more often positively impacted by soy trade, while more intangible dimensions such as freedom of choice and cultural value are found to be negatively affected. The empirical evidence for impacts on ecosystem services is more comprehensive and shows a clear picture of negative impacts associated with soybean production due to land use changes and deforestation, and agricultural intensification. There is hardly any evidence for the effectiveness of sustainable value chain policies.
... Argentina is the world's third-largest producer of soybeans after the United States and Brazil (USDA, 2019), and the fourthlargest producer of cattle after the same countries, plus China (http://www.fao.org/faostat/es/#data, last accessed: November 16, 2021). Land-use changes associated with these yields strongly impacted on Dry Chaco ecoregion, where agriculture has expanded rapidly since the 1990s (Cáceres, 2015;Baumann et al., 2016;Piquer-Rodríguez et al., 2018). In this work, we focus on the Northern Argentinian Dry Chaco (henceforth, NADC), at the center of the American Gran Chaco (Fig. 1). ...
... By the 1990s, soybean had expanded into the Dry Chaco region due to increasing soybean prices (Cáceres, 2015;Leguizamón, 2016) and new political and economic reforms that facilitated the increased production of crops in Argentina (Pengue, 2014). These land-use changes resulted in around 14% of the Argentinian Chaco being converted into agriculture by 2015 (Baumann et al., 2016). ...
... To identify agricultural stages in the study region (specific objective #1), we used land-cover maps and data calculated by Baumann et al. (2016). They used compositions of Landsat TM and ETM imagery to estimate the area of forest, croplands, and grazing, and the transitions between those categories for the years 1985, 2000, and 2013. ...
Article
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To meet the global-human population increase, deforestation resulting from agriculture expansion threatens the ecological and social dimensions of subtropical and tropical forests. Here, we identified classes of agricultural frontiers in the Dry Chaco ecoregion based on land-use changes between 2000 and 2013, in which we performed interviews and quantified local-urban people's perception regarding (1) main drivers of deforestation, (2) main actors responsible for it, and (3) if deforestation drivers impact positive or negatively on their welfare. Whereas in early frontier’ stages (i.e. new and incipient-active frontiers) the drivers perceived as responsible for deforestation were forest exploitation and real-estate transactions, in a later stage (i.e. active-frontier class) global agribusiness and livestock emerged. In mature-frontier stages, only cropland replacement was perceived as responsible. Across all agricultural-frontier classes, extra-regional people were the most pointed as responsible for deforestation, but governments were mentioned concerning weak policies and absence of plans. Global agribusiness was the driver most mentioned as impacting positively and negatively on local-urban people’s welfare, mostly related to job opportunities. This likely reflects that not all the population can take part in the economy boosted by commodities production. The identification of stages of agriculture-frontiers resulted in a simple and rigorous classification that could allow predicting social-ecological trajectories.
... Consequently, forests across the tropics have been cleared for agriculture [8][9][10], resulting in emissions of 2.6 GtCO 2 yr −1 [11]. While tropical regions such as the Amazon [12,13], Congo basin [14,15], and the Malay Archipelago [16][17][18] have received substantial attention, dry woody and grassland systems are increasingly being transformed and negatively impacted by land use [19][20][21][22]. Unfortunately, data on land change in extra-tropical systems of the Global South are lacking, even though these systems are particularly vulnerable to changing climate [2]. ...
... Deforestation in the Southern Cone region is largely driven by agricultural productionsoybean cultivation in the Atlantic Forest of eastern Paraguay and the Dry Chaco of northern Argentina [32,33,45,[99][100][101] and cattle ranching in the Dry Chaco of western Paraguay and the Chiquitania of eastern Bolivia [21,24,98]. These findings are consistent with recent publications documenting large-scale deforestation in the dry woodlands of South America [24,25,28,36], a significant source of carbon emissions since the 1980s [20]. ...
Article
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The impact of land cover change across the planet continues to necessitate accurate methods to detect and monitor evolving processes from satellite imagery. In this context, regional and global land cover mapping over time has largely treated time as independent and addressed temporal map consistency as a post-classification endeavor. However, we argue that time can be better modeled as codependent during the model classification stage to produce more consistent land cover estimates over long time periods and gradual change events. To produce temporally-dependent land cover estimates—meaning land cover is predicted over time in connected sequences as opposed to predictions made for a given time period without consideration of past land cover—we use structured learning with conditional random fields (CRFs), coupled with a land cover augmentation method to produce time series training data and bi-weekly Landsat imagery over 20 years (1999–2018) across the Southern Cone region of South America. A CRF accounts for the natural dependencies of land change processes. As a result, it is able to produce land cover estimates over time that better reflect real change and stability by reducing pixel-level annual noise. Using CRF, we produced a twenty-year dataset of land cover over the region, depicting key change processes such as cropland expansion and tree cover loss at the Landsat scale. The augmentation and CRF approach introduced here provides a more temporally consistent land cover product over traditional mapping methods.
... Few studies have been conducted on the global scale. In addition, extensive research has focused on a single ecosystem or a single type of land use [14,4,31]. The transformation and interactions between different systems or land use types have rarely been investigated. ...
... The transformation and interactions between different systems or land use types have rarely been investigated. Current techniques of E LUC estimation include the Bookkeeping (BK) model [14,13,6,2,26,4], Denitrification-Decomposition model [29,42,24], sample plotting [42,44] and the IPCC's recommended method [20]. Among these them, the method proposed by the IPCC takes into account both the direct carbon emissions caused by land use changes and the indirect carbon emissions stemming from energy consumption during land use and planning. ...
Article
Carbon emissions from land use (ELUC) are an important part of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its size and location remain uncertain, and our knowledge of the relationship between ELUC and GDP remains partial. We showed that the carbon emissions directly caused by land use change (direct ELUC) during 1992-2015 was 26.54 Pg C (1.15 Pg C yr⁻¹), with a decreased trend and a net reduction rate of −0.15 Pg C yr⁻¹. The areas that exhibited reductions were concentrated in South America, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia, and those with increments were scattered in Northwestern North America, Eastern South America, Central Africa, East Asia, and parts of Southeast Asia. For the indirect carbon emissions from the utilization of built-up land (indirect ELUC), it manifested an upward trend with a total emission of 23.51 Pg C (1.2 Pg C yr⁻¹). The total value resulted by global ELUC was $136.3 × 10⁹ US, and the value of annual was equivalent to 3.7 times the GDP of the Central African Republic in 2015 ($5.93 × 10⁹ US yr⁻¹). Among the 79 countries and regions considered in this study, 54 represented the upward GDP with increased emissions, and only 25 experienced GDP growth with emission reductions. These findings highlight the pivotal role of land use change in the carbon cycle and the significance of coordinated development between GDP and carbon emissions.
... The way of land production is the main factor leading to agricultural carbon emissions. Agricultural carbon emissions from less tillage, intensive tillage, and conventional tillage increased sequentially (Lal, 2004;Baumann, 2017) [15,16]. Gamboa and Galicia (2011) [17] also found that changes in land use can lead to changes in agricultural carbon emissions. ...
... The way of land production is the main factor leading to agricultural carbon emissions. Agricultural carbon emissions from less tillage, intensive tillage, and conventional tillage increased sequentially (Lal, 2004;Baumann, 2017) [15,16]. Gamboa and Galicia (2011) [17] also found that changes in land use can lead to changes in agricultural carbon emissions. ...
Article
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With the rapid development of China’s economy, China has become the world’s largest carbon emitter. China not only has an obvious growth rate of industrial carbon emissions but also the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions is hovering at a high level. The development of China’s agricultural economy has largely come at the expense of high emissions. Currently, under the background of global warming and difficulty in controlling greenhouse gas emissions, the development of low-carbon agriculture is an important way to realize the harmonious development of the ecological environment and economic growth and to promote the sustainable development of agriculture. The agricultural production efficiency is the main factor affecting the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions. Based on provincial panel data of China from 2010 to 2019, this paper establishes an indicator system and uses the super-efficiency SBM model to measure agricultural production efficiency. The regional agricultural carbon emissions were estimated using carbon-emission-related agricultural production activities. In order to study the nonlinear relationship between agricultural production efficiency and agricultural carbon emission intensity in the narrow sense, this paper uses a threshold regression model with agricultural carbon emissions as the threshold variable. Based on the analysis of China’s agricultural production efficiency and agricultural carbon emissions from 2010 to 2019, an empirical test is conducted through a threshold regression model. The results show an “inverted U-shaped” relationship between agricultural production efficiency and agricultural carbon emission intensity. In areas with high agricultural production efficiency, the improvement of production efficiency can suppress the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions; in areas with low agricultural production efficiency, the improvement of production efficiency increases the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, based on the research conclusions, this paper provides feasible suggestions and countermeasures for China’s agricultural carbon emission reduction and improvement of agricultural production efficiency.
... Durante las últimas cuatro décadas, el Chaco Seco Argentino ha presentado una dinámica que es ilustrativa de otras regiones sudamericanas que están orientadas a la exportación de commodities, como el Cerrado brasileño, la Chiquitania boliviana y el Chaco paraguayo (Baumann et al., 2016;Hansen et al., 2013;Nolte et al., 2017a). En las últimas dos décadas, una combinación de cambios macroeconómicos, tecnológicos y climáticos estimuló la llegada de productores de soja, ganaderos, e inversionistas de regiones vecinas más ricas, especialmente de la Pampa húmeda (Gasparri et al., 2013;Paolasso et al., 2012). ...
... La precipitación anual varía entre 400-600 mm en el centro de la región y 800-1000 mm hacia los ecotonos con la selva tropical de Yungas en el oeste y el Chaco Húmedo en el este, y las temperaturas medias anuales oscilan entre 19 y 22°C (Murphy, 2008). El Chaco Seco Argentino alberga una alta biodiversidad (Bucher & Huszar, 1999;Giménez et al., 2011), así como grandes reservorios de carbono (Baumann et al., 2016). ...
Article
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Deforestation is a main threat to the biosphere due to its contribution to biodiversity loss, carbon emissions, and land degradation. Most deforestation is illegal and continues unabated, representing around half of the total deforestation in the tropics and subtropics. Quantifying illegal deforestation is challenging, let alone assessing the social and institutional processes underlying its occurrence. We tackle this challenge by quantifying the relative influence of individual (i.e., landholders’ power, landholding size) and contextual (i.e., subnational institutions, agricultural suitability) factors on the type and size of illegal deforestation in the Argentine Dry Chaco, a major commodity production frontier and global deforestation hotspot. We build a Bayesian network fed with data of 244 illegal deforestation events, obtained from journalistic articles, grey literature, key informant interviews, and geospatial analyses. The results reveal that more powerful landholders were associated with larger illegal deforestation events. Policy simulations suggest that higher concentration of land in the hands of powerful landholders and more flexible subnational forest regulations would escalate illegal deforestation. This points to the need for a smart policy mix that integrates across economic, agricultural, and environmental sectors to halt illegal deforestation at commodity production frontiers. A land tenure reform can facilitate forest protection, while incentives to land-use diversification and the criminal prosecution of illegal deforestation are critical to shift landholder behavior towards more balanced production and conservation outcomes.
... While much attention has been paid to Latin America's humid tropical forests, sub-humid and dry tropical forest and savannas are also experiencing high levels of deforestation due to agricultural expansion (Aide et al., 2013;Baumann et al., 2017b). Specifically, the South American Chaco, a subtropical forest region located in northern Argentina, Paraguay, and south-eastern Bolivia, has emerged as a global deforestation hot spot, with the Paraguayan Chaco being of particular concern for environmental scientists ( (Baumann et al., 2017a). While the majority of these emissions came from forest-to-grassland conversions (~68 percent), post-deforestation land-use change such as the conversion of grass land to cropland, was responsible for 53 Mt C emissions (Baumann et al., 2017a). ...
... Specifically, the South American Chaco, a subtropical forest region located in northern Argentina, Paraguay, and south-eastern Bolivia, has emerged as a global deforestation hot spot, with the Paraguayan Chaco being of particular concern for environmental scientists ( (Baumann et al., 2017a). While the majority of these emissions came from forest-to-grassland conversions (~68 percent), post-deforestation land-use change such as the conversion of grass land to cropland, was responsible for 53 Mt C emissions (Baumann et al., 2017a). ...
Technical Report
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Executive Summary 1. Livestock are raised in 208 countries around the world for human consumption. This sector provides meat-based protein, milk and supply raw material for other industrial products. It is estimated that globally between 600 million (Thornton et al., 2002; Thornton et al., 2009) and 1.3 billion (The World Bank, 2020; van de Steeg et al., 2009) people are dependent on livestock for their livelihood. Livestock contributes only 1.5 percent to the global economy. 2. Livestock production occupies up to 75 percent of global agricultural land (Foley et al., 2011) and up to 45 percent of the land surface of the planet (Ritchie and Roser, 2013). Livestock farming consumes 30 percent of agricultural freshwater (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2012; Ran et al., 2017), 58 percent of the economically appropriated plant biomass and farmed animals have come to dominate the biosphere with 60 percent of all mammals on the planet being domesticated. 3. From a nutritional and economic perspective, livestock products play a surprisingly small role in our diets and economy. Livestock products provide only 17 percent of average global calorie intake and 30 percent of average global protein intake (Mottet et al., 2017), and livestock now consume more human edible protein than they produce (Steinfeld et al., 2006a). 4. Total number of livestock estimated to be raised in 2018 are 28.6 billion. It includes 1.4 billion cattle, 206 million buffaloes, 1.2 billion sheep, a little over 1 billion goats, 978 million pigs, and 24 billion poultry. 5. Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production of six types of livestock (cattle, buffaloes, sheep, goats, pigs and poultry) are estimated to be in the range of 10.7 – 16.9 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 equivalents (CO2e) assuming a global warming potential (GWP) for methane of 34 and 86 respectively. 6. This includes enteric fermentation (CH4) between 3.4 – 8.8 Gt CO2e, manure management (CH4) between 343 – 890 Mt CO2e, manure management (N2O) at 119 Mt CO2e, manure grazing (N2O) at 870 Mt CO2e, animal feed (CO2) at 143 Mt CO2e, fertiliser (N2O) at 253 Mt CO2e, fertiliser (CO2) at 291 Mt CO2e, crop residue (N2O) at 77 Mt CO2e, foregone soil carbon sequestration (CO2) at 1.4 Gt CO2e, LUC for pasture expansion (CO2) at 1.8 Gt CO2e, LUC for cropland expansion (CO2) at 141 Mt CO2e, degraded grazing land (CO2) at 244 Mt CO2e, animal respiration (CO2) at 1.86 Gt. 7. Our results show that, total livestock related emissions are in the range of 19.2 – 30.3 percent of the total anthropogenic global emissions from all economic sectors (55.6 Gt in 2018). 8. Our results include estimates for foregone soil carbon sequestration from the land that is used to grow animal feed, land use change (LUC) due to pasture and cropland expansion, degraded grazing land and includes animal respiration, However, we did not include transport, energy and processing related emissions due to lack of publicly available granular data at local to global scale. We assume that our estimates would significantly improve if we include energy, transport and processing related emissions. 9. We also estimated carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of cropland that is currently used to grow animal feed. It ranged from 38 Gt CO2 assuming low biomass estimates to 225 Gt CO2 assuming the highest estimates of biomass accumulation. 10. Further research can help to refine these estimates by using granular data about each stage of livestock value chain 11. While we estimate total GHG emissions attributable to global livestock sector, there are several other environmental, social and health impacts that need further attention by future research, practice and policy.
... cropland, forest land, and grassland) to be transformed into urban construction land (Feng et al., 2020;Sallustio et al., 2015). This process directly caused the loss of high carbon density land (Wu et al., 2016) and altered the process, structure, and function of the natural ecosystem (Baumann et al., 2016;Houghton et al., 2012). Consequently, urban expansion signi cantly reduced carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems and further affected the global carbon cycle and urban sustainability. ...
Preprint
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Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, which is the basis of the global carbon cycle, reflects the changes in the environment due to anthropogenic impacts. Rapid and effective assessment of the impact of urban expansion on carbon reserves is vital for the sustainable development of urban ecosystems. Previous studies lack research regarding different scenarios during future city and comprehensive analysis on the driving factors from the socioeconomic point of view. Therefore, this study examined Wuhan, China and explored the latent effects of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage by combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Based on different socioeconomic strategies, we developed three future scenarios, including Baseline Scenario (BS), Cropland Protection Scenario (CP), and Ecological protection Scenario (EP), to predict the urban built-up land use change from 2015 to 2035 in Wuhan and discussed the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion. The result shows that: (1) Wuhan's urban built-up land area expanded 2.67 times between 1980 and 2015, which is approximately 685.17 km ² and is expected to continuously expand to 1,349–1,945.01 km ² by 2035. (2) Urban expansion in Wuhan has caused carbon storage loss by 5.12×10 ⁶ t during 1980–2015 and will lead to carbon storage loss by 6.15×10 ⁶ t, 4.7×10 ⁶ t, and 4.05×10 ⁶ t under BS, CP, and EP scenarios from 2015 to 2035, accounting for 85.42%, 81.74%, and 78.79% of the total carbon loss, respectively. (3) The occupation of cropland by urban expansion is closely related to the road system expansion, which is the main driver of carbon storage reduction from 2015 to 2035. (4) We expect that by 2035, the districts facing carbon loss caused by the growth of urban built-up land will expand outward around secondary roads, and the scale of outward expansion under various scenarios will be ranked as: BS >CP > EP. In combination, the InVEST and the PLUS model can assess the impact of urban expansion on carbon storage more efficiently and is conducive to carrying out urban planning and promoting a dynamic balance between urban economic development and human well-being.
... provincial (Xu et al., 2016;He et al., 2018), state Zhang et al., 2018), national (Piao et al., 2016;MacLean et al., 2021), regional (Achard et al., 2004;Houghton and Hackler, 2006;Zhao et al., 2013;Hinge et al., 2018), and global (Tian et al., 2021) spatial scales to account for land-use carbon emissions. Research perspectives are dominated by a single ecosystem or land-use type Baumann et al., 2017). Some of the more widely used methods include the Invest model (Arcidiacono et al., 2015;Adelisardou et al., 2022), the Bookkeeping (BK) model Houghton, 2003;Andersen et al., 2016), the Denitrification-Decomposition model (Li et al., 1992;Jiang et al., 2017) and the IPCC's recommended method (Paustian et al., 2006). ...
Article
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Carbon emissions based on land use change have attracted extensive attention from scholars, but the current land use carbon emission accounting model is still relatively rough. Despite the continuous promotion of China’s ecological civilization strategy, whether green economic development promotes carbon emission reduction remains to be studied. This study uses the Exploratory Spatial-temporal Data Analysis (ESTDA) framework system to revise the land-use carbon emission accounting model; it integrates the NDVI adjustment index and systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns and evolutionary path characteristics of carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020 for 130 prefecture-level cities in the eastern coastal region of China, a high carbon emission region. The spatial econometric model is further used to explore the impact of green economy development on carbon emissions. The results show that the spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks in the eastern coastal cities demonstrates a year-on-year increase during the study period. The spatial distribution of carbon sources is higher in the north than in the south, and the economically developed regions are more elevated than less developed economic areas. Net carbon emissions show prominent spatial clustering characteristics. The south has a more stable internal spatial structure than the north, and the inland has a more stable internal spatial structure than the coast. Green economic development can significantly reduce carbon emission intensity and has a significant spatial spillover effect. The findings imply that policy-makers need to consider the spatial and temporal distribution and spatial correlation of carbon emissions among cities; they can achieve carbon emission reduction by formulating a more reasonable green economy development approach and implementing regional linkages.
... where future life zone shifts from subtropical dry forest to tropical very dry forest will likely further reduce the availability of water needed to support the recent rapid expansion and intensification of agriculture (Baumann et al., 2017). Adaptation measures, including more conservative irrigation and water use policies, and altered timing and composition of crop plantings, will be increasingly needed to attenuate disruptions to food supply chains (Iglesias & Garrote, 2015;Lehmann et al., 2013). ...
Article
Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well‐being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones—distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad‐scale ecosystem types—is limited. To address this gap, we used high‐resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901‐1920), contemporary (1979‐2013), and future (2061‐2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km2 (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes impact an additional 62 million km2 (42.6% of land) under ‘business‐as‐usual’ (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social‐ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist.
... Unsustainable hunting is also affecting C. wagneri populations (Altrichter 2005(Altrichter , 2006Camino and Torres 2019). The Chaco ecoregion currently presents one of the highest rates of deforestation anywhere in the world (Piquer-Rodríguez et al. 2015;Vallejos et al. 2015, Volante et al. 2016Baumann et al. 2017). A large portion of this region has been transformed into intensive production systems for agriculture or livestock, which has highly fragmented habitats of C. wagneri (Periago et al. 2015;Altrichter et al 2016;Volante et al. 2016). ...
Article
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New records of the Endangered Catagonus wagneri (Rusconi, 1930) are reported in Campo Grande Community of peasants, northwestern Santiago del Estero, Argentina. The new records were obtained through camera traps as well as the finding of a skull and footprints. We conducted interviews confirmed the historical presence of the species. The records indicate the presence of C. wagneri in the North Biological Corridor, expanding this species’ distribution in Santiago del Estero province, providing initial evidence of potential connection between northern and southern populations.
... The Paraguayan Chaco is currently the only area with a high proportion of natural vegetation separating the soybean production areas of four major South American soybean production countries (supplementary online material section 2) and has acted as a de-facto barrier between the regions. This region is also the home to many indigenous communities, is the habitat to many endemic flora and fauna, and provides important ecosystem services such as carbon storage and flood regulation (Baumann et al. 2017a;Veit and Sarsfield 2017). Efforts to curb deforestation and agricultural expansion, such as the establishment of the Chaco Biosphere Reserve 6 with additional requirements for maintaining forestland have been made, but exist as a government resolution and are not part of national law, and are only partially enforced by MADES as part of the environmental impact statements needed to gain environmental licenses for clearing forestland (interview 25-see supplementary online material). ...
Article
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Our study analyzes potential agro-industrial soybean expansion dynamics and is the first to project soybean expansion Paraguayan Chaco. This biodiverse region, home to the greatest diversity of indigenous groups in Paraguay, has recently seen some of the world's highest deforestation rates, losing 3.4 Mha of forestland between 2001 and 2014. Soy, a globally traded commodity crop and Paraguay's largest export product, recently arrived in the area and may exacerbate the high deforestation rates currently attributed to pastureland expansion. We combine extensive field, trade, and satellite data, to analyze the context, and push-pull factors that are driving frontier expansion dynamics, and assess the potential impacts of soybean-based land use change using geo-located accounts of current soybean production sites. Our analysis finds that roughly 742,000 ha in the Paraguayan Chaco are suitable for soybean frontier expansion with an additional 940,000 ha moderately suitable for expansion. We identify the main drivers of soybean expansion in the region as agricultural technology and land price appreciation. However, infrastructure investments are set to further drive soybean expansion dynamics and connect the region via navigable rivers and roads with access to ports on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans as part of the multinational Corredor-Bioceánico "bi-oceanic corridor" road project. The continued rapid development of this fragile landscape could transform the Paraguayan Chaco into a major South American logistics hub for soybean and other agricultural production. Without appropriate governance systems in place, this development could lead to irreversible large-scale damage to the socio-environmental systems, similar to boom dynamics seen in other South American frontiers.
... In the case of forests, a very high heterogeneity of the OC stock was noted, which was explained via both abiotic factors-such as topographic effects [5][6][7][8][9], morphogenetic processes [10], and soil properties [11][12][13][14]-and biotic factors-such as the tree species composition [15][16][17][18][19][20], silviculture treatment [10,12] and stand age [21,22]. The quantification of the OC pool in forests that cover large areas of land is important not only from a research point of view but more importantly in the context of expected changes due to climate change and deforestation observed all over the world [23][24][25][26]. ...
Article
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Forest ecosystems significantly contribute to the global organic carbon (OC) pool, exhibiting high spatial heterogeneity in this respect. Some of the components of the OC pool in a forest (woody aboveground biomass (wAGB), coarse root biomass (CRB)) can be relatively easily estimated using readily available data from land observation and forest inventories, while some of the components of the OC pool are very difficult to determine (fine root biomass (FRB) and soil organic matter (SOM) stock). The main objectives of our study were to: (1) estimate the SOM stock; (2) estimate FRB; and (3) assess the relationship between both biotic (wAGB, forest age, foliage, stand density) and abiotic factors (climatic conditions, relief, soil properties) and SOM stocks and FRB in temperate forests in the Western Carpathians consisting of European beech, Norway spruce, and silver fir (32 forest inventory plots in total). We uncovered the highest wAGB in beech forests and highest SOM stocks under beech forest. FRB was the highest under fir forest. We noted a considerable impact of stand density on SOM stocks, particularly in beech and spruce forests. FRB content was mostly impacted by stand density only in beech forests without any discernible effects on other forest characteristics. We discovered significant impacts of relief-dependent factors and SOM stocks at all the studied sites. Our biomass and carbon models informed by more detailed environmental data led to reduce the uncertainty in over- and underestimation in Cambisols under beech, spruce, and fir forests for mountain temperate forest carbon pools.
... Nevertheless, the displacement of cattle ranching from the Pampas towards less productive rangelands has in the past increased the pressure over native forests and the dependence on grains to increase the energy intake of the cattle (Viglizzo et al. 2011). Currently more than half of the land devoted to beef production is located in the northern regions of the country (Arrieta et al. 2020;Fernández et al. 2020), including the Dry Chaco, which is a global deforestation hotspot due to the conversion of forest into pastures and annual crops (e.g., soybean, maize) for animal feed (Baumann et al. 2017). ...
Article
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Diets link human health with environmental sustainability, offering promising pressure points to enhance the sustainability of food systems. We investigated the health, environmental, and economic dimensions of the current diet in Argentina and the possible effects of six dietary change scenarios on nutrient adequacy, dietary quality, food expenditure, and six environmental impact categories (i.e., GHG emissions, total land occupation, cropland use, fossil energy use, freshwater consumption, and the emission of eutrophying pollutants). Current dietary patterns are unhealthy, unsustainable, and relatively expensive, and all things being equal, an increase in income levels would not alter the health dimension, but increase environmental impacts by 33-38%, and costs by 38%. Compared to the prevailing diet, the six healthier diet alternatives could improve health with an expenditure between + 27% (National Dietary Guidelines) to -5% (vegan diet) of the current diet. These dietary changes could result in trade-offs between different environmental impacts. Plant-based diets showed the lowest overall environmental impact, with GHG emissions and land occupation reduced by up to 79% and 88%, respectively, without significant changes in cropland demand. However, fossil energy use and freshwater consumption could increase by up to 101% and 220%, respectively. The emission of eutrophying pollutants could increase by up to 54% for all healthy diet scenarios, except for the vegan one (18% decrease). We conclude that the health and environmental crisis that Argentina (and other developing countries) currently face could be mitigated by adopting healthy diets (particularly plant-based), bringing in the process benefits to both people and nature. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01087-7.
... The provinces with high soil-water compatibility were more efficient at curbing ACE than those with low soil-water compatibility . The replacement of forests by farmland or pastures resulted in significant carbon emissions, which can account for up to 68% of total carbon emissions (Baumann et al. 2016). Additionally, weather and seasonal climate can significantly affect ACE (Bai et al. 2018). ...
Article
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Agricultural carbon mitigation is critical for China to encourage the sustainable development of agriculture and achieve the carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. By exploring the impact mechanism of the carbon emission intensity (CEI) of grain production, we can effectively promote the low-carbon transformation of agricultural production and ensure the sustainable development of the food supply. This article analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution of the total carbon emission (TCE) and CEI of staple crops and adopts a dynamic spatial model to explore the influence mechanism and spatial spillover effects of the CEI of grain production based on evidence from China’s major grain-producing provinces from 2002 to 2018. The results indicate that the TCEs of rice, wheat, and maize fluctuate upward and that the CEI in most producing areas decreases with low-low agglomeration (or high-high agglomeration). Among the influencing factors, technology is the main factor reducing CEI. Technical efficiency, urbanization, industrial structure, agricultural agglomeration, and agricultural trade openness can be transmitted to neighboring areas through spatial spillover mechanisms. The spatial spillover mechanisms are resource flow, technology spillover, and policy learning, producing the demonstration effect and siphon effect. Based on our findings, agricultural technology innovation and popularization, urbanization, optimization of the agricultural structure, financial payments, and factor flow among regions should be improved to encourage the low carbon transformation of grain production.
... (2010), Baumann et al. (2017), Ismael et al. (2018), Al Qatarneh et al. (2018), and so on, have studied agricultural carbon emissions[44][45][46][47]. ...
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Carbon peak and carbon neutrality are important development goals for China so the issue of carbon emissions from cultural and related manufacturing has received increasing attention. The objective of this paper is to clearly present the current status and historical evolution of the carbon emissions and carbon emissions efficiency of cultural and related manufacturing (CEECM) in 17 provinces in the Yangtze River Basin in China from 2012 to 2019. This paper mainly uses two research methods: the super-efficiency DEA analysis method is used to measure the CEECM in the various regions and the Theil index analysis method is used to study the regional differences in the CEECM in these regions. It was found that there were large differences in the carbon emissions of cultural and related manufacturing in the various regions and the energy consumption also varied greatly. In 2019, Guangdong province had the highest amount of carbon emissions from cultural and related manufacturing industries in the Yangtze River Basin, followed by Jiangsu and Fujian. On the whole, the eastern part of the Yangtze River Basin had more emissions than the central and western parts. From 2012 to 2019, the carbon emissions of cultural and related manufacturing industries in the Yangtze River Basin showed an overall downward trend. In 2019, the city with the highest CEECM in the Yangtze River Basin was Shanghai, followed by Fujian and Sichuan. From 2012 to 2019, the average CEECM for the whole Yangtze River basin, the provinces of the main stream of the Yangtze River, and the provinces of the tributaries of the Yangtze River all showed a downward trend. According to the calculation, the average value of the Theil index from 2012 to 2019 was 0.905, which indicated that the regional differences in the CEECM among the provinces in the Yangtze River Basin were large. From 2012 to 2019, the regional differences in the CEECM for the Yangtze River basin as a whole, the provinces of the main stream of the Yangtze River, and the provinces of the tributaries of the Yangtze River all showed an inverted U-shaped development trend. The regional differences in the CEECM in 2013 were the largest and then showed a decreasing trend. After 2015, the fluctuation of the differences was relatively flat.
... LULC (Land use/land cover) dynamics induced by climate change and human activities have been regarded as the major variable to impact terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (Zaehle et al., 2007). Besides, the process of LULC transformation has contributed to the increase of atmospheric CO 2 , ranking only second to that generated by fossil fuel burning , Foley et al., 2005, Baumann et al., 2017. Therefore, assessing carbon storage in areas of different spatial-temporal scales has become a vital issue. ...
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Land use/land cover (LULC) change has greatly altered ecosystem carbon storage capacity and can eventually profoundly impact global climate change. Characterizing the LULC change and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage in coastal areas is greatly significant to comprehensively understanding the influences of human activities on ecosystems. Based on LULC data, this paper combined CA-Markov and InVEST models to evaluate the past, present, and future LULC change and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage in coastal areas of China. The results showed that past LULC change in coastal areas can be divided into two stages: (I) accelerated evolution stage (1980–2010), and (II) stable evolution stage (2010–2020). Changes in LULC types have led to a downward trend in ecosystem carbon storage, with a cumulative loss of 0.39 Pg and 0.15 Pg during the two stages, respectively. Spatially, carbon storage presented a high-low-high spatial distribution pattern from north to south. Temporally, areas with a rapid urbanization process exhibited more obvious changes in carbon storage dynamics. Compared with the natural change scenario, the areas with LULC types conversion under the ecological conservation scenario in 2050 will be lower due to the limitation of ecological protection, and it caused carbon storage reduction will slow down. Rapid LULC dynamics, that a large area of farmland, unused land and, water have been converted into construction land, reduced the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem. This study will provide reliable references and precise data support for coastal management and decision-making.
... As the most drastic land use change in the process of rapid urbanisation and industrialisation (He et al. 2016), urban expansion led a large number of ecological lands (e.g., cropland, forest land and grassland), which can provide carbon storage and sequestration services (Privitera et al., 2018), to be transformed into urban construction land (Sallustio et al., 2015). This process directly caused the loss of high carbon density land (Wu et al. 2016) and altered the process, structure and function of the natural ecosystem (Baumann et al. 2016;Houghton et al. 2012). Consequently, urban expansion significantly reduced carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems and further affected the global carbon cycle and urban sustainability. ...
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Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, which is the basis of the global carbon cycle, reflects the changes in the environment due to anthropogenic impacts. Rapid and effective assessment of the impact of urban expansion on carbon reserves is vital for the sustainable development of urban ecosystems. Previous studies on future scenario simulations lacked research regarding the driving factors of changes in carbon storages within urban expansion, and the economic value accounting for changes in carbon storages. Therefore, this study examined Wuhan, China, and explored the latent effects of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage by combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Based on different socioeconomic strategies, we developed three future scenarios, including Baseline Scenario (BS), Cropland Protection Scenario (CP) and Ecological protection Scenario (EP), to predict the urban built-up land use change from 2015 to 2035 in Wuhan and discussed the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion. The result shows that (1) Wuhan’s urban built-up land area expanded 2.67 times between 1980 and 2015, which is approximately 685.17 km² and is expected to continuously expand to 1349–1945.01 km² by 2035. (2) Urban expansion in Wuhan has caused carbon storage loss by 5.12 × 10⁶ t during 1980–2015 and will lead to carbon storage loss by 6.15 × 10⁶ t, 4.7 × 10⁶ t and 4.05 × 10⁶ t under BS, CP, and EP scenarios from 2015 to 2035, accounting for 85.42%, 81.74%, and 78.79% of the total carbon loss, respectively. (3) The occupation of cropland by urban expansion is closely related to the road system expansion, which is the main driver of carbon storage reduction from 2015 to 2035. (4) We expect that by 2035, the districts facing carbon loss caused by the growth of urban built-up land will expand outward around secondary roads, and the scale of outward expansion under various scenarios will be ranked as BS > CP > EP. In combination, the InVEST and the PLUS model can assess the impact of urban expansion on carbon storage more efficiently and is conducive to carrying out urban planning and promoting a dynamic balance between urban economic development and human well-being.
... The major environmental trade-off of this extensive grazing system is native land conversion. In the Dry Chaco, both soybean and pasture expansion were the main drivers of deforestation in the last decades (Fehlenberg et al., 2017;Gasparri and Grau, 2009;Houspanossian et al., 2016), resulting in threats for biodiversity (Romero-Muñoz et al., 2021) and in an increase in national GHG emissions (Baumann et al., 2016). Cattle ranching intensification has been broadly proposed as a crucial process to avoid the future conversion of natural areas in South America (Gerssen-Gondelach et al., 2017;Strassburg et al., 2014). ...
Article
Cattle ranching has increased globally in the last decades, and although pasture expansion is well documented across different regions, there is little understanding of the intensity at which cattle operate in these areas. With freely available Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, we mapped for the first time polyethylene silage bags used for forage conservation in a year with the Random Forest algorithm, and proposed them as a spatial indicator of cattle intensity. For this, we combined monthly silage area with land cover and climatic variables in a regression framework to understand cattle intensity metrics at regional and farm scales throughout 20 million hectares in the Dry Chaco. In addition, we explored the impact of using maize silage supplementation on productive and environmental metrics at the farm scale in a precipitation gradient. We validated our models using a spatially explicit database of cattle distribution. Our results highlight that silage bags are accurate mappable objects with Sentinel-2, which can contribute to the understanding of cattle density, and heifer and steer density in pasture contexts at farm and regional scales. Finally, our whole-farm simulations support the idea that incorporating silage supplementation in cattle ranching regional analyses conducts to significant differences on environmental or productive estimations, which should be considered. The amount of stored forage that is used in supplementation has strong implications for the performance of cattle ranching, but remains difficult to quantify at the regional level with remote sensing. Silage bag mapping is thus an opportunity to improve the overall understanding of livestock intensification and its productive and environmental impacts, particularly in highly seasonal rangelands. Following this metric could be a valuable indicator of the cattle ranching performance in terms of it resilience, production increase and impacts over natural ecosystems (related to Sustainable Development Goal 2-zero hunger and also in the 15-life on land).
... Within SESA, the Gran Chaco region is particularly vulnerable to climate hazards for being one of the most threatened ecoregions worldwide: its biome corresponds to tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests that are at risk due to their high rates of ecosystem loss and their sensitivity to climate variability and climate change (Hansen et al., 2013;Kuemmerle et al., 2017;Ortega et al., 2021). The Gran Chaco region underwent an accelerated expansion of cattle ranching and soybean cultivation (Vallejos et al., 2015;Baumann et al., 2016) which, in turn, generated high deforestation rates (Fehlenberg et al., 2017). Thus, the fragile ecosystem of the Gran Chaco region is vulnerable to current precipitation variability (including extreme events) and to the expected exacerbation of extreme precipitation events for the 21st century (Ortega et al., 2021;Almazroui et al., 2021a). ...
Article
This study assesses the intensity, spatial distribution and temporal variability of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) on different time scales relevant to agriculture and water resources during the 1901–2016 period over Argentina's Austral Chaco (ACh). EPEs were identified using a nonparametric approach for the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The leading modes of SPI's variability were detected using the Singular Spectrum Analysis. We also compile and control the quality of precipitation observations in a scarcely monitored region. The limited number of stations conditions the interpolation of the GPCC v2018 database here used, mainly during the early twentieth century. The EPEs characterized by SPI at a 24‐month time scale, which favor long‐lasting water excesses or deficits with hydrological impacts, underwent two differentiated long‐term periods: a dry one before 1960 and a wet one from 1960 to 2005. Consistently, seasonal wet EPEs were more frequent during the wet period while seasonal droughts were more frequent and with larger spatial extent during the dry period. Seasonal EPEs, represented by the SPI at 3‐month time scale, can impact agriculture during the crops' critical growth period. Since 2006, the long‐term wetting trend has been reversed. If this behavior continues into the coming decades, more droughts and less wetness might be expected. The EPEs present a large interannual variability with 6.3‐year and 9‐year significant cycles that, combined with long‐term trends, favored extremely wet/dry EPEs. Most of the wet/dry EPEs occurred during El Niño/La Niña events. Although this relationship is not straightforward, we found a discriminant ENSO signal between October of the year when an ENSO event starts and February of the next year. Finally, severely dry/wet EPEs tend to have large spatial extent in the ACh region. The central‐eastern ACh region experiences the most extreme wet and dry conditions, which makes this area more prone to extreme EPEs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... The present study aimed to improve the accuracy of model estimation by using annual-scale data reflecting changes in farmland area based on coupling statistical data and LULC maps [53], localized C density parameters derived from published literature, and considering the time lag effect of cropland changes on regional C stock [54]. The estimation of C sequestration of LCC of 14.47 Tg C in Xinjiang from 1980 to 1995 is consistent with that of Zhang et al. [55] of 12 Tg C. In addition, mean annual C sequestration resulting from cropland expansion of 3.74 Tg C a À1 from 2006 to 2015, accounted for 6% of carbon sequestration (58 Tg C a À1 ) resulting from LUCC in China during the corresponding period [13]. ...
... The northeastern Chaco represents the southwestern extension of the Pantanal ecoregion and an introgression of the Cerrado region known locally as the Cerrados del Chaco (Mereles et al., 2013). The Dry Chaco is largely composed of arid thorn forest, and is currently suffering some of the highest levels of deforestation on the planet (Baumann et al., 2017;Caballero, Palacios, Arevalos, Rodas, & Yanosky, 2014). The Humid Chaco is an area of aseasonally flooded palm savanna becoming interspersed with gallery forest and swamp as it intergrades with the Pantanal region to the north (Guyra Paraguay, 2005;Hayes, 1995). ...
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Global conservation resources are limited and as a result donors and funders are forced to make difficult decisions as to which areas are in most urgent need of support. Biodiversity can play a key role in these choices, but many other factors must be considered. In order to assist with such decisions we present a simple index that can be employed by non-scientists in poorly sampled countries, using the reptile fauna of 55 protected and two unprotected areas of Paraguay as a case study. This index can be applied at multiple taxonomic and geographic levels to minimize biases generated by uneven sampling. We offer words of caution on unsupported claims of high biodiversity, and highlight how the use of inaccurate terminology, although well-intentioned, can be detrimental to national or local conservation efforts. Results show that the top two areas of conservation priority in Paraguay are currently unprotected, and current investment of resources is ineffective and insufficient for long term protection of Paraguay’s globally and nationally threatened reptiles.
... The Chaco forest (60% of which is located in Argentina) has experienced one of the highest rates of agricultural expansion globally (15.8 million ha, 21%, of woodlands transformed from 1980 to 2012; Vallejos et al., 2015, Barral et al., 2020. Agricultural expansion in the Argentine Chaco has resulted in globally relevant carbon emissions (Baumann et al., 2017) and widespread reductions in the ecosystem functions of erosion control, soil fertility, excess rainfall retention by vegetation, and carbon storage in biomass and soil (Barral et al., 2020). Associated ecosystem services of flood regulation, climate regulation and agricultural suitability have declined by 6% to over 20% across the Argentine Chaco since 1985 (Barral et al., 2020). ...
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To effectively conserve forests and the ecosystem services they provide, mechanisms are needed to promote conservation on private lands that reduce forest fragmentation, secure lands with high conservation value, and enhance landscape connectivity. Incentive-based programs like payments for ecosystem services (PES) are important policy tools for attaining conservation on private lands. In 2019, we conducted 81 in-person surveys with private forestland owners, whose properties are located on the border of protected areas and in corridors connecting protected areas in Argentina's Chaco forest. We examined landowners' preferences for alternative conservation incentives, how Argentina's current PES program could be altered to increase landowner enrollment, and the amount of compensation landowners require to enroll in PES. We found that knowledge of Argentina's PES program, motivations for forest ownership, attitudes toward forest conservation policy, and property characteristics influenced landowners' preferences for conservation program design. Although indigenous communities preferred conservation easements, other private landowners were more likely to choose a PES program. Research participants preferred PES programs with shorter contract lengths or that permitted them to engage in silvopasture. The payments research participants required to engage in land uses currently authorized under Argentina's PES program exceed current PES funding. Relying solely on PES to engage landowners in conservation may result in lost opportunities to conserve forest on private lands.
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Comprehensive and accurate grasp of land-use carbon emissions (LCE) level and its driving mechanism is key to success in China's pursuit of low-carbon development, and it is also the scientific basis for the formulation and implementation of regional carbon emissions strategies. Based on fossil fuel carbon emissions raster data (published by the ODIAC platform) and land use data, this manuscript selects the Yellow River Delta as the study area and uses an improved LCE measurement model, exploratory spatial data analysis, multiscale geographical weighting regression (MGWR), and other models to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of LCE at the grid level. The results showed the following: ① The total amount of LCE in the study area continued to increase from 2000 to 2019, but the growth rate decreased, but the peak of LCE had not yet been reached. ② The LCE of the study area showed a significant positive global autocorrelation. The H–H aggregation region showed a relatively stable spatial distribution range; the L-L aggregation region showed wide distribution characteristics that covered the entire study area; and the aggregation regions of H-L and L-H, which have not yet reached the scale. ③ At the global dimension, the mean correlation coefficients between LCE and driving factors (NPP, nighttime light (NTL), and population density (PD)) from 2000 to 2019 were −0.11, 0.28, and 0.12; at the local dimension, the strength (from strong to weak) of the effect of each factor on LCE was PD, NTL, Npp (2000) and NTL, PD, Npp (2019). The research results provide a scientific basis and basic guarantee for the development, and implementation of regional carbon emission strategies.
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A combination of technics was used to assess landscape variables associated with the presence of the globally vulnerable giant armadillo (Priodontes maximus) in its southernmost distribution in the Chaco region of Argentina. Between 2017 and 2019, 369 km of foot and vehicle transects were run to search and record indirect evidence of the species (burrows and feeding excavations) in areas with different level of protection, including two national parks, three provincial parks, and non-protected areas. Distance sampling was used to estimate density of excavations and effective strip width sampled to estimate the surveyed area. Resource selection functions (RSFs) were used to assess the variables associated to its presence by comparing locations of excavations with available habitat within surveyed areas. In these RSF models covariates that may affect habitat use and survival of giant armadillos were included: three categorical ones: soil type, vegetation cover (forests vs. grasslands), protection level (national park, provincial park, non-protected), and five continuous variables: distance to nearest river, distance to nearest national park, distance to closest protected area, distance to nearest transformed area, and distance to natural grasslands. Habitat use was modelled pooling together burrows and feeding excavations, and models were validated with a pool of records previously excluded from the analysis. A total of 104 records of burrows and 344 of feeding excavations were recorded. The probability of occurrence of giant armadillo excavations was much higher within forests, within or near protected areas, and increased with the distance to rivers, to transformed areas, and to grasslands. In the study area, only 10% of the landscape surveyed has good- to high-probability of occurrence of giant armadillos. The maintenance of large surfaces of native forests and the consolidation, improvement, and connectivity among protected areas seem to be essential for the long-term survival of the endangered giant armadillo in Argentina.
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Land use/cover change is the main reason for the variation of ecosystem carbon storage. The study of the impact of land use on carbon storage has certain reference values for realizing high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. In this paper, the InVEST model was used to simulate the variation of carbon storage in the Yellow River Basin in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, and to predict the carbon storage in 2030 in combination with the CA-Markov model, as well as to discuss the impact of land use on carbon storage. The results showed that: (1) The variation trend of carbon storage for different land use types in the Yellow River Basin was different and was mainly manifested as a decrease of cultivated land and unused land, and an increase of forest land, grassland, water, and construction land. The carbon storage in the provincial key development prioritized zone, national development optimized zone, and provincial development optimized zone showed decreasing trends, while the national key development prioritized zone and national major grain producing zone presented a fluctuating downward trend. (2) The ecosystem carbon storage function weakened after 2000, and part of the carbon sink area transformed into a carbon source area. The area with low carbon storage was distributed in the west of the provincial key ecological function zone, and the area with high carbon storage was concentrated in the south and middle of national key ecological function zone and the east of the provincial key ecological function zone. (3) The carbon loss was largest in the urban expansion scenario (UES), followed by the natural development scenario (NDS) and ecological protection scenario (EPS). The carbon storage of different scenarios presented significant positive correlations with land use intensity.
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Agricultural expansion into tropical and subtropical forests often leads to major social-ecological trade-offs. Yet, despite ever-more detailed information on where deforestation occurs, how agriculture expands into forests remains unclear, which is hampered by a lackof spatially and temporally detailed reconstruction of agricultural expansion. Here, we developed and mapped a novel set of metrics that quantify agricultural frontier processes at unprecedented spatial and temporal detail. Specifically, we first derived consistent annual time series of land-use/cover to, second, describe archetypical patterns of frontier expansion, pertaining to speed, diffusion and activity of deforestation, as well as post-deforestation land use. We exemplify this approach for understanding agricultural frontier expansion across the entire South American Chaco, a global deforestation hotspot. Our study provides three major insights. First, agricultural expansion has been rampant in the Chaco, with more than 19.3 million ha of woodlands converted between 1985 and 2020, including a surge in deforestation after 2019. Second, land-use trajectories connected to frontier processes have changed in major ways over the 35-year study period we studied, including substantial regional variations. For instance, while ranching expansion drove most of the deforestation in the 1980s and 1990s, cropland expansion dominated during the mid-2000s in Argentina, but not in Paraguay. Similarly, 40% of all areas deforested were initially used for ranching, but later on converted to cropping. Accounting for post-deforestation land-use change is thus needed to properly attribute deforestation and associated environmental impacts, such as carbon emissions or biodiversity loss, to commodities. Finally, we identified major, recurrent frontier types that may be a useful spatial template for land governance to match policies to specific frontier situations. Collectively, our study reveals the diversity of frontier processes and how frontier metrics can capture and structure this diversity to uncover major patterns of human-nature interactions, which can be used to guide spatially-targeted policies.
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This article analyzes bottom-up institution-building processes in a region considered deforestation and environmental degradation hotspot. Utilizing the constitutionality approach developed by Haller, Acciaioli, and Rist (2016), we examine two recent cases of bottom-up institution-building in the department of Rivadavia, Chaco Salteño, Argentina. We highlight the similarities and differences between both constitutionality processes and identify various weaknesses in the two cases. We argue that constitutionality, understood as a process, has occurred to different (incomplete) degrees in each case. Finally, we show that external catalyzing agents play a decisive role in enabling or hampering the constitutionality process. Our study contributes to the literature on common-pool resource governance by highlighting how collective action can lead to participatory-development processes.
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Forest replacement and degradation driven by crop expansion and livestock intensification are some of the main global socio-ecological threats, severely affecting the dry Chaco region (main dry forest in America). By involving stakeholders, whose actions are decisive in dealing with the problem under analysis, we assessed the interactions among processes of multiple dimensions and spatial scales, currently controlling communal forest degradation in 11 peasant communities of Taboada, Ibarra and Salavina departments, in Santiago del Estero province, Argentina. Then, by reconstructing historical processes undergone by these communities over the last century, we analyzed how different system settings have conducted to the system collapse (forests and community loss) or strengthened its adaptive capacity facing natural disturbances (droughts) and anthropogenic stressors (economic shocks, land disputes). This work unveils system attributes related to native resource management and economic diversification on the farm, family and community structure, and social networking with peasant organizations and other institutions, crucial for building social–ecological resilience. Alternative trajectories are shown towards degradation (throughout a downward spiral, often followed by peasant exodus and deforestation) or restoration. Our results would explain why forest (protection) law and state subsidies aimed at sustainable management have been insufficient and suggest some clues to reorient them.
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Agricultural expansion is the primary cause of forest loss and fragmentation. It threatens the conservation of its biodiversity as well as the capability to provide ecosystem services. Land-use policies, such as zonation programs, have been traditionally used as a tool for promoting a sustainable natural resource management; however, we still lack standardized methodologies that can be applied world-widely to achieve this purpose. In the current context of rampant deforestation over the tropical forests, there is an urgent need of identifying policies that steer agricultural land-use change into a reduced pressure on forests. This study focuses on the outcomes of the first territorial planning law in the Province of Formosa (Argentina) located within the Chaco region, one of the world’s deforestation hotspots. The research questions were: a) How did agriculture expand in Formosa before, during and after the enactment of the territorial planning law? b) Did the introduction of the law affect the spatial distribution of land-use change?; and c) How did the sanction of the law affect forest loss and forest fragmentation? Landsat imagery was used to map land-use change, and to calculate the cover loss and cover loss rate considering the zoning and physiognomic classification of the law. The forest fragmentation was evaluated in terms of the forest loss spatial configuration, classified as perforation or shrinkage, forest edge generation, patch size distribution, and patch isolation. The territorial planning law effect over agricultural expansion was tested using a difference in difference model. After the law was passed, a reduced land-use pressure was observed for the forest within the conservation designated zone; however, the forest presented the highest cover loss rates among the physiognomic categories of the law. Land-use change within the conservation designated zone was predominantly made according to a perforation spatial configuration, which promoted the forest edge generation. Formosa is experiencing an early fragmentation process as the isolation between patches decreased and its size distribution changed towards a less large-patch-centered pattern. Overall, the territorial planning law in Formosa succeeded in the relief of land-use pressure on forest, but highlighted the need of incorporating spatial configuration guidelines for long-term forest conservation. The case of Formosa case could be useful in the design of future sustainable natural resource management policies and implies the importance of early natural resource planning.
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Carbon storage services play an important role in maintaining ecosystem stability. Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the dominant factor generating changes in the ecosystem carbon storage. Demonstrating the impact of LUCC on regional carbon storage changes and predicting future carbon storage under different land use scenarios is of great significance for promoting regional carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Taking the main urban area of Chongqing as an example, this study analyzes carbon storage changes from 2000 to 2020 and the response to LUCC. The Markov-FLUS model is employed to predict the land use pattern of the main urban area in 2035 under four scenarios, and the InVEST model is used to assess carbon storage in 2035 under different scenarios. The results can be summarized as follows: 1) In the past 20 years, the area of cultivated land in the main urban areas of Chongqing decreased by 743.29 km², and the area of construction land increased by 773.48 km². About 18.8 % of the main urban area of Chongqing was transferred, the conversion of cultivated land to construction land being the most important type of transfer. 2) In 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, the carbon storage in the main urban area was 59.85, 59.29, 57.90, 56.95, and 54.07 Tg, respectively, showing an annually decreasing trend with a cumulative decrease of 5.78 Tg. The cultivated land occupation by construction land is the leading factor for the rapid decrease of carbon storage. The spatial distribution of carbon storage in the main urban area differs significantly, exhibiting a low in the middle and high in the surrounding areas. 3) In 2035, the carbon storage in the main urban area shows different degrees of decline in the Natural Trend Scenario (NTS), the Food Security Scenario (FSS) and the High Urbanization Scenario (HUS), decreasing by 3.37, 0.59, and 5.25 Tg, respectively. The only increase by 1.51 Tg is found in the Ecological Security Scenario (ESS). Therefore, under the background of the “Dual Carbon” targets and the important positioning of Chongqing as an important ecological barrier in the Yangtze River Basin, the ESS can be considered in the future development planning of the main urban area of Chongqing, which can both increase carbon sink and ensure ecological security.
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Land-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Gran Chaco as an example. We reconstructed anteater occupancy change between 1985 and 2015 by fitting single-season occupancy models with contemporary camera-trap data and backcasting the models to 1985 and 2000 land-cover/use maps. Based on this, we compared the area of forest loss (direct effect of agricultural expansion) with the area where forests remained but occupancy still declined (indirect effect of agricultural expansion). Anteater occupancy decreased substantially since 1985, particularly after 2000 when agriculture expanded rapidly. Between 1985 and 2015, ~ 64,000 km2 of forest disappeared, yet occupancy declined across a larger area (~ 102,000 km2), extending far into seemingly untransformed habitat. This suggests that widespread sink habitat has emerged due to agricultural land-use change, and that species may lose their habitat through direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, highlighting the urgent need for broad-scale conservation planning in the Chaco. Appropriate management responses could proactively protect more habitat where populations are stable, and restore habitat or address causes of mortality in areas where declines occur. Our work also highlights how occupancy modelling combined with remote sensing can help to detect the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, providing guidance for spatially targeting conservation strategies to halt extinctions.
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The Gran Chaco is currently a global hotspot of deforestation and environmental degradation. Halting global warming and curbing biodiversity losses are urgent priorities and recent research suggests that sustainable smallholder production systems could contribute to maintain and restore key ecosystem services. This article examines the adoption of two silvopastoral practices in Argentina's Gran Chaco. We conducted a survey of 552 smallholders in three municipalities in the province of Salta. With the resulting data, we used multilevel models to assess adoption of the two practices. Our multilevel models indicate several factors that are associated with adoption, including: gender of the household head, year of establishment, literacy of the household head, membership in a producer organization, and socioeconomic status. Our results suggest that paraje-groups of neighbouring households or joint settlements-are a good predictor of adoption, whereas nearby villages are only marginally associated with adoption. We conclude by highlighting the importance of accounting for local structures and groups of households in rural studies.
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The semi-arid Chaco ecoregion has been heavily affected by the conversion of pastures to cropland. Our knowledge about the impact of land use change on soil microbial community diversity and functions in this region is limited. Here, we assessed the impact of different land uses and management practices (i.e.: ungrazed pasture, grazed pasture and cropping systems under zero and conventional tillage) on soil bacterial communities structure and functions, as well as their relations with edaphic properties. The taxonomic diversity of bacterial communities was mainly dominated by the phyla Firmicutes, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria. Alpha diversity was the highest in grazed pasture (OTU richness, Chao and Shannon), and it was the lowest in ungrazed pasture. Soil organic carbon, nitrogen and pH were the main determining variables of bacterial community composition and diversity. Predicted functional profiles revealed the gene abundances involved in amino acid, energy and carbohydrate metabolisms; and in categories related to nucleotide transport, metabolism, translation ribosomal structure, and biogenesis. These abundances were higher in agricultural than pastoral systems. Our results suggest that changes in soil physicochemical properties (i.e. SOC, TN and pH) associated with soil management practices cause shifts in the composition of soil bacterial communities and their metabolic functions in farming systems of the semi-arid Chaco region.
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The great success of the Brazilian deforestation programme " PRODES digital " has shown the importance of annual deforestation information for understanding and mitigating deforestation and its consequences in Brazil. However, there is a lack of similar information on deforestation for the 1990s and 1980s. Such maps are essential to understand deforestation frontier development and related carbon emissions. This study aims at extending the deforestation mapping record backwards into the 1990s and 1980s for one of the major deforestation frontiers in the Amazon. We use an image compositing approach to transform 2224 Landsat images in a spatially continuous and cloud free annual time series of Tasseled Cap Wetness metrics from 1984 to 2012. We then employ a random forest classifier to derive annual deforestation patterns. Our final deforestation map has an overall accuracy of 85% with half of the overall deforestation being detected before the year 2000. The results show for the first time detailed patterns of the expanding deforestation frontier before the 2000s. The high degree of automatization exhibits the great potential for mapping the whole Amazon biome using long-term and freely accessible remote sensing collections, such as the Landsat archive and forthcoming Sentinel-2 data.
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The impact of deforestation on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is important in the context of climate change and agricultural soil use. Trends of SOC stock changes after agroecosystem establishment vary according to the spatial scale considered, and factors explaining these trends may differ sometimes according to meta-analyses. We have reviewed the knowledge about changes in SOC stocks in Amazonia after the establishment of pasture or cropland, sought relationships between observed changes and soil, climatic variables and management practices, and synthesized the δ13C measured in pastures. Our dataset consisted of 21 studies mostly synchronic, across 52 sites (Brazil, Colombia, French Guiana, Suriname), totalling 70 forest–agroecosystem comparisons. We found that pastures (n = 52, mean age = 17.6 years) had slightly higher SOC stocks than forest (+6.8 ± 3.1 %), whereas croplands (n = 18, mean age = 8.7 years) had lower SOC stocks than forest (−8.5 ± 2.9 %). Annual precipitation and SOC stocks under forest had no effect on the SOC changes in the agroecosystems. For croplands, we found a lower SOC loss than other meta-analyses, but the short time period after deforestation here could have reduced this loss. There was no clear effect of tillage on the SOC response. Management of pastures, whether they were degraded/nominal/improved, had no significant effect on SOC response. δ13C measurements on 16 pasture chronosequences showed that decay of forest-derived SOC was variable, whereas pasture-derived SOC was less so and was characterized by an accumulation plateau of 20 Mg SOC ha−1 after 20 years. The large uncertainties in SOC response observed could be derived from the chronosequence approach, sensitive to natural soil variability and to human management practices. This study emphasizes the need for diachronic and long-term studies, associated with better knowledge of agroecosystem management.
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Land-use and land-cover change has been a topic that has called the attention of the scientific community for decades. Because of the importance of tropical and subtropical forest ecosystems, investigations into the causes and processes (e.g., underlying and proximate causation) that drive land use and land-cover change have typically concentrated on these regions. Consequently, little work has been done to understand the proximate and underlying drivers of land use and land-cover change in one of the least disturbed forests worldwide, the Paraguayan dry Chaco in South America. This article attempts to fill this gap in the literature by focusing on the processes and drivers behind land-cover change in the Paraguayan Chaco. More specifically, this article links underlying and proximate causes to regional land-cover change. To accomplish this task the study makes use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and census data. Results show major land-cover changes. Different from other dry regions in South America where soybean expansion has been pointed out as main driver of land-cover change, in the Paraguayan Chaco, cattle ranching is a major driver of forest loss.
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We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regard to recent trends in global GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU), including global emission updates to 2012. Using all three available AFOLU datasets employed for analysis in the IPCC AR5, rather than just one as done in the IPCC AR5 WGIII Summary for Policy Makers, our analyses point to a down-revision of global AFOLU shares of total anthropogenic emissions, while providing important additional information on subsectoral trends. Our findings confirm that the share of AFOLU emissions to the anthropogenic total declined over time. They indicate a decadal average of 28.7 ± 1.5% in the 1990s and 23.6 ± 2.1% in the 2000s and an annual value of 21.2 ± 1.5% in 2010. The IPCC AR5 had indicated a 24% share in 2010. In contrast to previous decades, when emissions from land use (land use, land use change and forestry, including deforestation) were significantly larger than those from agriculture (crop and livestock production), in 2010 agriculture was the larger component, contributing 11.2 ± 0.4% of total GHG emissions, compared to 10.0 ± 1.2% of the land use sector. Deforestation was responsible for only 8% of total anthropogenic emissions in 2010, compared to 12% in the 1990s. Since 2010, the last year assessed by the IPCC AR5, new FAO estimates indicate that land use emissions have remained stable, at about 4.8 Gt CO2 eq yr−1 in 2012. Emissions minus removals have also remained stable, at 3.2 Gt CO2 eq yr−1 in 2012. By contrast, agriculture emissions have continued to grow, at roughly 1% annually, and remained larger than the land use sector, reaching 5.4 Gt CO2 eq yr−1 in 2012. These results are useful to further inform the current climate policy debate on land use, suggesting that more efforts and resources should be directed to further explore options for mitigation in agriculture, much in line with the large efforts devoted to REDD+ in the past decade.
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Forest-fragmentation-related edge effects are one of the major causes of forest degradation in Amazonia and their spatio-temporal dynamics are highly influenced by annual deforestation patterns. Rapid biomass collapse due to edge effects in forest fragments has been reported in the Brazilian Amazon; however the collective impacts of this process on Amazonian carbon fluxes are poorly understood. We estimated biomass loss and carbon emissions from deforestation and forest fragmentation related to edge effects on the basis of the INPE (Brazilian National Space Research Institute) PRODES deforestation data and forest biomass volume data. The areas and ages of edge forests were calculated annually and the corresponding biomass loss and carbon emissions from these forest edges were estimated using published rates of biomass decay and decomposition corresponding to the areas and ages of edge forests. Our analysis estimated carbon fluxes from deforestation (4195 Tg C) and edge forest (126–221 Tg C) for 2001–10 in the Brazilian Amazon. The impacts of varying rates of deforestation on regional forest fragmentation and carbon fluxes were also investigated, with the focus on two periods: 2001–5 (high deforestation rates) and 2006–10 (low deforestation rates). Edge-released carbon accounted for 2.6–4.5% of deforestation-related carbon emissions. However, the relative importance of carbon emissions from forest fragmentation increased from 1.7–3.0% to 3.3–5.6% of the respective deforestation emissions between the two contrasting deforestation rates. Edge-related carbon fluxes are of increasing importance for basin-wide carbon accounting, especially as regards ongoing reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) efforts in Brazilian Amazonia.
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We estimate changes in forest cover (deforestation and forest regrowth) in the tropics for the two last decades (1990-2000 and 2000-2010) based on a sample of 4,000 units of 10km×10km size. Forest cover is interpreted from satellite imagery at 30m×30m resolution. Forest cover changes are then combined with pan-tropical biomass maps to estimate carbon losses. We show that there was a gross loss of tropical forests of 8.0 million ha y−1 in the 1990s and 7.6 million ha y−1 in the 2000s (0.49% annual rate), with no statistically significant difference. Humid forests account for 64% of the total forest cover in 2010 and 54% of the net forest loss during second study decade. Losses of forest cover and other wooded land cover result in estimates of carbon losses which are similar for 1990s and 2000s at 887 MtC y−1 (range: 646 – 1238) and 880 MtC y−1 (range: 602 – 1237) respectively, with humid regions contributing two thirds. The estimates of forest area changes have small statistical standard errors due to large sample size. We also reduce uncertainties of previous estimates of carbon losses and removals. Our estimates of forest area change are significantly lower as compared to national survey data. We reconcile recent low estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for early 2000s and show that carbon loss rates did not change between the two last decades. Carbon losses from deforestation represent circa 10% of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the last decade (2000-2010). Our estimates of annual removals of carbon from forest regrowth at 115 MtC y−1 (range: 61-168) and 97 MtC y−1 (53-141) for the 1990s and 2000s respectively are five to fifteen times lower than earlier published estimates.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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This discussion paper assesses the state of knowledge on tropical dry forests1 as it relates to CIFOR’s strategy and identifies research opportunities that align with CIFOR’s strategic goals. Over the past two decades, CIFOR has accumulated a substantial body of work on dry forests, with a particular focus on African dry forests. This paper is intended to build on that work, by gathering wider research from around the world, as CIFOR seeks to widen the geographic scope of its research on dry forests. The present assessment explores five themes: climate change mitigation and adaptation; food security and livelihoods; demand for energy; sustainable management of dry forests; and policies and institutional support for sustainable management. These themes emerged as priority areas during discussions on dry forest research priorities held at CIFOR’s Dry Forests Symposium in South Africa in 20112. Research on these themes should be considered a priority, given the importance of dry forests to people and ecosystems around the world and the threats posed to them.