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Does increased forest protection correspond to higher fire severity in frequent-fire forests of the western United States?

Wiley
Ecosphere
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There is a widespread view among land managers and others that the protected status of many forestlands in the western United States corresponds with higher fire severity levels due to historical restrictions on logging that contribute to greater amounts of biomass and fuel loading in less intensively managed areas, particularly after decades of fire suppression. This view has led to recent proposals-both administrative and legislative-to reduce or eliminate forest protections and increase some forms of logging based on the belief that restrictions on active management have increased fire severity. We investigated the relationship between protected status and fire severity using the Random Forests algorithm applied to 1500 fires affecting 9.5 million hectares between 1984 and 2014 in pine (Pinus ponderosa, Pinus jeffreyi) and mixed-conifer forests of western United States, accounting for key topographic and climate variables. We found forests with higher levels of protection had lower severity values even though they are generally identified as having the highest overall levels of biomass and fuel loading. Our results suggest a need to reconsider current overly simplistic assumptions about the relationship between forest protection and fire severity in fire management and policy.
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vvArticle e014921v
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23
1Center for Biological Diversity, PO Box 710, Tucson, Arizona 85701 USA
2Earth Island Institute, 2150 Allston Way, Suite 460, Berkeley, California 94704 USA
3Geos Institute, 84-4th Street, Ashland, Oregon 97520 USA
Citation:
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Abstract.
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
   Pinus ponderosaPinus jereyi)


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
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Key words:

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
E-mail: 
IntroductIon
  
      
       
   

(Pinus ponderosa    
       


     
      
  
     


      

 





    
      
      



     
vvArticle e014922v www.esajournals.org
 

       

     

  


Study area
     
     
     
       

      
Pinus jereyi

    Quercus 
      

 

Pinus contortaPinus lambertiana
AbiesPseudotsuga menzeisii
Calocedrus decurrens
Methods


      
        
      
      

     
 
 


     
     
       

     

       

  
public communication 
      
     
   
      

     
 
       
  

    
 
      
      



       



     

   


        
     
       
       


Fires
  
  public communication 
       
   


        
       
      

     
 
     
      
      

      
vvArticle e014923v www.esajournals.org
 
  




     
      
2009a       

     





vvArticle e014924v www.esajournals.org
 
       

        








 

  
 
       

      
 

Topographic and climatic data


      
public communication
 
m2

   

     
 
    
  public communication 
  

     

        
public communication
 
      
       
    
      


 
       
      
     
       


       



Protected area status and ecoregion classification
      



  

     
   


 



     

     


      
     


     
      
       
       
       


       
    
  
 public communica-
tion 

      
       


 
vvArticle e014925v www.esajournals.org
 
       
      

      



     
       

Random Forests analysis




        
       
    
      
      


      

     
     


     
       

       
    
        
       
     
        
      
       
      
       
       


    
        
       
  
      
    

    

    

      

      

   
         

        
      
     
       

     
        
  

Mixed- effects analysis
     

        
  n  
(n


       
       
    
        

        
     
    
     
      
r        
      
      
    

Spatial autocorrelation analysis

 

    
vvArticle e014926v www.esajournals.org
 
   

       
      
  
       
x  y  



 
  
P 
 
        

     
     
    
     
     
  
P 
results
       


        

      



       
   
      
      
     

      
        
  
  

     


        


       

       
 


           
R2
vvArticle e014927v www.esajournals.org
 
        
     
      



dIscussIon
Protected forests burn at lower severities
 
    
 


       
     
    





      


      
     


      
      
  
 




       
       

    

        
 
     
       
     
       
     
   

       
         


  
     



      
     


vvArticle e01492v www.esajournals.org
 
      
        
 Results      
 
     

 
     





Prevailing forest–fire management perspectives vs.
alternative views

      
       
      
   
     
      
  b




    
      
     
      
    
  
       


      
       

  
     
       

    
       
      
     
2009b       
 
     
         
       
       


        

        
        
  Strix occidentalis caurina  
       
 



        












       
  a       
 b
       

      
      

        
     




    

   





2015a      
vvArticle e014929v www.esajournals.org
 


  

 
         

2015a      

     
    


Limitations
   
     
   


    
    
      
    
        







       
       
       
       


       
     
      
        
 



 

      
       


    
   


conclusIons



      
    


     
     
      
 


     

      



 
    
b
      


      
 
     
 
      
       


  

 
 
     
     
       
     


vvArticle e0149210v www.esajournals.org
 

     
       
 
      
     


AcknowledgMents


      
       

lIterAture cIted
    


          

      


       



         
       

 


    

      
 

         
      
      



  
 

       a 
   
in         
     
    

b

    

        
  
      
     in  

     


  
    



   
        


     


   
    
 Pseudotsuga     


       
        
      


     

 
     


       


      


     


       
     

vvArticle e0149211v www.esajournals.org
 
      


        


     


      
 

       


         
      
  in  
      
  






    



       
 

     

        

in
   
 

 

 
     
       


           
a
      
      

    

      



          
b

     


        
       
     

  

       
     

         

        

  
      

  

        
     


    

        


     
      


       
     


   
      

   
  



   

vvArticle e0149212v www.esajournals.org
 
        
     
      

  

     
  

        
   

         
      

      


       



      



       



      
      





   
        
   


 
      

       
   
      


       

          
      
      



    
    


 
      

      

   

          

     



 

       

         



        
        





      
    in    

      
 








     

         
     
       


vvArticle e0149213v www.esajournals.org
 

      
      

   

      

 

  


   

 

      

    


       
      


     
     
     
     

      
       
     


       
       
      
      

         
    
     
in   

 

       a 
   

    

 b




        
 
      

supportIng InforMAtIon
        

... Therefore, efforts to reduce GHG emissions along with protecting natural climate solutions like HCVF are fundamental to climate mitigation and adaptation. Similarly, the past history of logging has contributed to the increased flammability of some HCVF following their regeneration, both in south-eastern Australia (Taylor et al., 2014;Wilson et al., 2022) and parts of North America (Thompson et al., 2007;Bradley et al., 2016;Levine et al., 2022;Mackey et al., 2023). This suggests that some of the ecological conditions in forests that have been created by industrial forestry practices are not solvable by more of the same practices that encompass intensive AM. ...
... At the same time federal land management agencies are dramatically increasing the pace and scale of management explicitly focused on reducing fire hazard and restoring more resilient conditions, a number of scientists are raising serious questions about whether these projects will in fact be ecologically beneficial as the agencies claim , DellaSala et al. 2022, Bradley et al. 2016, Rhodes & Baker 2008). These researchers have argued that despite what may be ecological-sounding goals and objectives, projects that primarily focus on logging-based fuels reduction treatments are actually more likely to degrade forests, watersheds and wildlife habitats rather than restore them. ...
... MTBS provides consistent categorised burn severity information for all fires since 1984 (Eidenshink et al. 2007). Burn severity information from MTBS has been used in other studies for quantifying patterns and impacts of wildfires on the landscape (Arkle, Pilliod, and Welty 2012;Baker 2015;Bradley, Hanson, and DellaSala 2016). Both the categorical burn severity (i.e., low, moderate, and high) and differenced Normalised Burn Ratio (dNBR) are considered in the GLMs. ...
Article
Full-text available
Streamflow derived from snowmelt is a key source of water for communities and agricultural producers in the western U.S. As wildfires become larger and more frequent in the West (due in part to climate change), it is increasingly important to understand their potential impacts on snowpack. Temperature‐index models remain widely used to simulate snowpack in post‐wildfire assessments due to their low data requirements. However, there is limited information on how the key parameters of such models change due to wildfires. The objectives of this study are to (1) quantify the observed changes in the melt‐rate function and the rain‐snow temperature threshold due to wildfires and (2) develop methods to adjust the melt‐rate function and rain‐snow temperature threshold (or Px Temperature) to simulate the potential impacts of wildfires on snowpack. To accomplish these goals, snow water equivalent data from 42 SNOTEL sites that have been impacted by wildfire are used to estimate the changes in the melt‐rate functions and Px Temperatures between the pre‐and post‐wildfire periods. Then, general linear models (GLMs) are developed to estimate the changes in the model parameters based on readily available topographic, climatic, and land cover information. The results indicate that late season melt‐rates typically increase after a wildfire for sites in northern and central ecoregions of the western U.S. Px Temperature also changes for many sites, but the direction and magnitude of change is highly variable between sites. Nearly all the GLMs can estimate the observed parameter changes better than simply using the average observed changes. However, substantial variation in the parameter values is not explained by the GLMs.
... Notably, wildfire regimes in large, protected areas across the Rockies seem to be operating within historic bounds [47], possibly due to their highly skewed upper-elevation locations that are difficult to access for fire suppression and vegetation treatments and differences in vegetation types at higher elevations [1]. This is in contrast to areas with less protection and more exposure to logging, which tend to burn more severely [49]. Additionally, outbreaks of bark beetles (Scolytinae) and western spruce budworm (Choristoneura freemani) have been widespread since the 1990s [50] and linked to global overheating, especially during the winter [51]. ...
Article
Full-text available
We conducted a multi-scaled Ecoregional Conservation Assessment for the Southern Rockies (~14.5 M ha) and its trailing edge, the Santa Fe Subregion (~2.2 M ha), from Wyoming to New Mexico, USA. We included a representation analysis of Existing Vegetation Types (EVTs), mature and old-growth forests (MOG), and four focal species—Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), North American wolverine (Gulo gulo luscus), Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), and northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis)—in relation to 30 × 30 and 50 × 50 conservation targets. To integrate conservation targets with wildfire risk reduction to the built environment and climate change planning, we overlaid the location of wildfires and forest treatments in relation to the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) and included downscaled climate projections for a lower (RCP4.5) and higher (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Protected areas were highly skewed toward upper-elevation EVTs (most were >50% protected), underrepresented forest types (<30% protected), especially MOG (<22% protected) and riparian areas (~14% protected), and poorly represented habitats (<30%) for at least three of the focal species, especially in the subregion where nearly all the targets underperformed compared to the ecoregion. Most (>73%) forest-thinning treatments over the past decade were >1 km from delineated WUI areas, well beyond the distance at which vegetation management can effectively reduce structure ignition risk (<50 m from structures). Extreme heat, drought, snowpack reductions, altered timing of peak stream flows, increasing wildfires, and potential shifts in the climate, favoring woodlands over conifer forests, may impact forest-dependent species, while declining snowpack may impact wolverines that den at upper elevations. Strategically targeting the built environment for fuel treatments would improve wildfire risk reduction and may allow for expansion of protected areas held up in controversy. Stepped-up protection for roadless areas, adoption of wilderness proposals, and greater protection for MOG and riparian forests are critical for meeting representation targets.
... Notably, wildfire regimes in large, protected areas across the Rockies seem to be operating within historic bounds [46], possibly due to their highly skewed upper elevation locations that are difficult to access for fire suppression and vegetation treatments and differences in vegetation types at higher elevations [1]. This is in contrast to areas with fewer protections and more exposure to logging that tend to burn more severely [48]. Additionally, outbreaks of bark beetles (Scolytinae) and western spruce budworm (Choristoneura freemani) have been widespread since the 1990s [49] and linked to global overheating, especially during the winter [50]. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
We conducted a multi-scaled Ecoregional Conservation Assessment for the Southern Rockies (~14.5M ha) and its trailing edge, the Santa Fe Subregion (~2.2M ha), Wyoming to New Mexico, USA. We included a representation analysis of Existing Vegetation Types (EVT), mature-old-growth forests (MOG), and four focal species—Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), North American wolverine (Gulo gulo luscus), Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), and northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis)—in relation to 30 x 30 and 50 x 50 conservation targets. To integrate conservation targets with wildfire risk reduction to the built environment and climate change planning, we overlaid the location of wildfires and forest treatments in relation to the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) and included downscaled climate projections for a lower (RCP4.5) and higher (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. Protected areas were highly skewed toward upper elevation EVTs (most were >50% protected), underrepresented forest types (<30% protected), especially MOG (<22% protected) and riparian areas (~14% protected), and poorly represented habitat (<30%) for at least 3 of the focal species, especially in the subregion where nearly all the targets underperformed compared to the ecoregion. Most (>73%) forest thinning treatments over the past decade were >1-km from delineated WUI areas, well beyond the distance at which vegetation management can effectively reduce structure ignition risk (< 50-m from structures). Extreme heat, drought, snowpack reductions, altered timing of peak stream flows, increasing wildfires, and potential shifts in the climate niche of woodlands over conifer forests may impact forest dependent species, while declining snowpack may impact wolverine that den in upper elevations. Strategically targeting the built environment for fuel treatments would improve wildfire risk reduction and may allow for expansion of protected areas held up in controversy. Stepped-up protections for roadless areas, adoption of wilderness proposals, and greater protections for MOG and riparian forests are critical for meeting representation targets.
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