Technical ReportPDF Available

“Performance assessment of finite-fault inversion codes in the Marmara configuration”- “Near-Real time estimation of most relevant earthquake source parameters”

Authors:
  • Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences
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9"
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10"
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9'78'<&%>'JR1I(:O&=%B'?(OR(%B>'9&%BC(@:9(8'=V(7J%8(>'J:<%&RI(%B(&6'(@9'dA'B<R(O=B?(,4,/Q,4Y3W]4(!
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7&65'#U?!!%7@%&(O'&T''B(7RB&6'&%<(C9:AB?(>'J:<%&%'7()OJA'(J%B'71(T%&6(&6:7'(<:D8A&'?(@9:D(&6'(
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
sec
rise timeE W
-18
(km)
(km)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
m
slipE W
-18
(km)
(km)
28.5 66.59.5 47.5 85.50 95
28.5 66.59.5 47.5 85.50 95
!"#$%&'()*"(+,-./01(234.(
11"
"
I0,#Y!J=0'X?>/1!
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7&65'#Z?!#'&9%'>'?(9A8&A9'(D:?'JI(%B(&'9D7(:@(7J%8(=B?(9%7'(&%D'(?%7&9%OA&%:B()A88'9(=B?(O:&&:D(8=B'JI(
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
sec
rise timeE W
-18
(km)
(km)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
m
slipE W
-18
(km)
(km)
28.5 66.59.5 47.5 85.50 95
28.5 66.59.5 47.5 85.50 95
!"#$%&'()*"(+,-./01(234.(
12"
"
I0,#Y!N=0'X?N>/!
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7&65'#JJ?!#'&9%'>'?(9A8&A9'(D:?'JI(%B(&'9D7(:@(7J%8(=B?(9%7'(&%D'(?%7&9%OA&%:B()A88'9(=B?(O:&&:D(
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
m
(km)
slipE W
-18
(km)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
sec
rise timeE W
-18
(km)
(km)
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
!"#$%&'()*"(+,-./01(234.(
13"
"
I0,#Y!N=0'X?>/1!
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7&65'#JM?!#'&9%'>'?(9A8&A9'(D:?'JI(%B(&'9D7(:@(7J%8(=B?(9%7'(&%D'(?%7&9%OA&%:B()A88'9(=B?(O:&&:D(
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7&65'#J@?!!%7@%&(O'&T''B(7RB&6'&%<(C9:AB?(>'J:<%&%'7()OJA'(J%B'71(T%&6(&6:7'(<:D8A&'?(@9:D(&6'(
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
sec
rise timeE W
-18
(km)
(km)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
m
slipE W
-18
(km)
(km)
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
!"#$%&'()*"(+,-./01(234.(
14"
"
I0,#Y!3BB=0'X?N>/1!
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7&65'#JV?!!%7@%&(O'&T''B(7RB&6'&%<(C9:AB?(>'J:<%&%'7()OJA'(J%B'71(T%&6(&6:7'(<:D8A&'?(@9:D(&6'(
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
m/s
peak slip velocityE W
2
3
-18
(km)
(km)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
sec
rise timeE W
-18
(km)
(km)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
m
slipE W
-18
(km)
(km)
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
!"#$%&'()*"(+,-./01(234.(
15"
"
I0,#Y!3BB=0'X?>/1(
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
m/s
peak slip velocityE W
1
2
3
-18
(km)
(km)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
sec
rise timeE W
-18
(km)
(km)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
m
slipE W
-18
(km)
(km)
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
28.5 66.59.5 85.50 9547.5
!"#$%&'()*"(+,-./01(234.(
16"
"
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17"
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A 3-D tomographic inversion of first arrival times of shot profiles recorded by a dense 2-D OBS network provides an unprecedented constraint on the P-wave velocities heterogeneity of the upper-crustal part of the North Marmara Trough (NMT), over a region of 180 km long by 50 km wide. One of the specific aims of this controlled source tomography is to provide a 3-D initial model for the local earthquake tomography (LET). Hence, in an original way, the controlled source inversion has been performed by using a code dedicated to LET. After several tests to check the results trade-off with the inversion parameters, we build up a 3-D a priori velocity model, in which the sea-bottom topography, the acoustic and the crystalline basements and the Moho interfaces have been considered. The reliability of the obtained features has been checked by checkerboard tests and also by their comparison with the deep-penetration multichannel seismic profiles, and with the wide-angle reflection and refraction modelled profiles. This study provides the first 3-D view of the basement topography along the active North Anatolian fault beneath the Marmara Sea, even beneath the deepest part of three sedimentary basins of NMT. Clear basement depressions reaching down 6 km depth below the sea level (bsl) have been found beneath these basins. The North Imrali Basin located on the southern continental shelf is observed with a similar sedimentary thickness as its northern neighbours. Between Central and Cinarcik basins, the Central High rises up to 3 km depth below (bsl). Its crest position is offset by 10 km northwestward relatively to the bathymetric crest. On the contrary, Tekirdag and Central basins appear linked, forming a 60-km-long basement depression. Beneath the bathymetric relief of Western High low velocities are observed down to 6 km depth (bsl) and no basement high have been found. The obtained 3-D Vp heterogeneity model allows the consideration of the 3-D supracrustal heterogeneity into the future earthquake relocations in this region. The topographic map of the pre-kinematic basement offers the possibility to take into account the locking depth variations in future geohazard estimations by geomechanical modelling in this region.
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We present a new procedure for the determination of rupture complexity from a joint inversion of static and seismic data. Our fault parameterization involves multiple fault segments, variable local slip, rake angle, rise time, and rupture velocity. To separate the spatial and temporal slip history, we introduce a wavelet transform that proves effective at studying the time and frequency characteristics of the seismic waveforms. Both data and synthetic seismograms are transformed into wavelets, which are then separated into several groups based on their frequency content. For each group, we use error functions to compare the wavelet amplitude variation with time between data and synthetic seismograms. The function can be an L1 L2 norm or a correlative function based on the amplitude and scale of wavelet functions. The objective function is defined as the weighted sum of these functions. Subsequently, we developed a finite-fault inversion routine in the wavelet domain. A simulated annealing algorithm is used to determine the finite-fault model that minimizes the objective function described in terms of wavelet coefficients. With this approach, we can simultaneously invert for the slip amplitude, slip direction, rise time, and rupture velocity efficiently. Extensive experiments conducted on synthetic data are used to assess the ability to recover rupture slip details. We, also explore slip-model stability for different choices of layered Earth models assuming the geometry encountered in the 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake.
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We present a two-stage nonlinear technique to invert strong motions records and 7 geodetic data to retrieve the rupture history of an earthquake on a finite fault. To account for the 8 actual rupture complexity, the fault parameters are spatially variable peak slip velocity, slip 9 direction, rupture time and rise time. The unknown parameters are given at the nodes of the 10 subfaults, whereas the parameters within a subfault are allowed to vary through a bilinear 11 interpolation of the nodal values. The forward modeling is performed with a discrete 12 wavenumber technique, whose Green's functions include the complete response of the vertically 13 varying Earth structure. During the first stage, an algorithm based on the heat-bath simulated 14 annealing generates an ensemble of models that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions 15 of parameter space. In the second stage (appraisal), the algorithm performs a statistical analysis 16 of the model ensemble and computes a weighted mean model and its standard deviation. This 17 technique, rather than simply looking at the best model, extracts the most stable features of the 18 earthquake rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of 19 each model parameter. We present some synthetic tests to show the effectiveness of the method 20 and its robustness to uncertainty of the adopted crustal model. Finally, we apply this inverse 21 technique to the well recorded 2000 western Tottori, Japan, earthquake (Mw 6.6); we confirm 22 that the rupture process is characterized by large slip (3-4 m) at very shallow depths but, 23 differently from previous studies, we imaged a new slip patch (2-2.5 m) located deeper, between 24 14 and 18 km depth.
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Earthquake scarps associated with recent historical events have been found on the floor of the Sea of Marmara, along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The MARMARASCARPS cruise using an unmanned submersible (ROV) provides direct observations to study the fine-scale morphology and geology of those scarps, their distribution, and geometry. The observations are consistent with the diversity of fault mechanisms and the fault segmentation within the north Marmara extensional step-over, between the strike-slip Ganos and Izmit faults. Smaller strike-slip segments and pull-apart basins alternate within the main step-over, commonly combining strike-slip and extension. Rapid sedimentation rates of 1?3 mm/yr appear to compete with normal faulting components of up to 6 mm/yr at the pull-apart margins. In spite of the fast sedimentation rates the submarine scarps are preserved and accumulate relief. Sets of youthful earthquake scarps extend offshore from the Ganos and Izmit faults on land into the Sea of Marmara. Our observations suggest that they correspond to the submarine ruptures of the 1999 Izmit (Mw 7.4) and the 1912 Ganos (Ms 7.4) earthquakes. While the 1999 rupture ends at the immediate eastern entrance of the extensional Cinarcik Basin, the 1912 rupture appears to have crossed the Ganos restraining bend into the Sea of Marmara floor for 60 km with a right-lateral slip of 5 m, ending in the Central Basin step-over. From the Gulf of Saros to Marmara the total 1912 rupture length is probably about 140 km, not 50 km as previously thought. The direct observations of submarine scarps in Marmara are critical to defining barriers that have arrested past earthquakes as well as defining a possible segmentation of the contemporary state of loading. Incorporating the submarine scarp evidence modifies substantially our understanding of the current state of loading along the NAF next to Istanbul. Coulomb stress modeling shows a zone of maximum loading with at least 4?5 m of slip deficit encompassing the strike-slip segment 70 km long between the Cinarcik and Central Basins. That segment alone would be capable of generating a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw 7.2). Other segments in Marmara appear less loaded.
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We perform numerical simulations of dynamic rupture processes along the North Anatolian fault in the Sea of Marmara, which poses a high risk to the nearby city of Istanbul. Several fault geometry models, nucleation points, and initial stress states are tested. The likelihood of each earthquake scenario is evaluated, and a probabilistic assessment of the ground-motion estimation is proposed. The simulation results suggest that the fault geometrical configuration is not favorable for producing an earthquake of magnitude 6–7, as no scenario is found. On the contrary, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitude greater than 7 is high. Most of these large events are characterized by epicenters located in the central or eastern parts of the Sea of Marmara. However, the possibility of a western-initiated rupture propagating eastward, the worst scenario for the Istanbul region, cannot be ruled out. Many simulations led to supershear ruptures, as observed for the nearby 1999 İzmit earthquake, and this significantly influences ground-motion prediction in the region.
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This chapter focuses on the software for calculating earthquake ground motions from finite faults in vertically varying media. The COMPSYN (Complete Synthetic) software uses the numerical techniques of Spudich and Archuleta to evaluate the representation theorem integrals on a fault surface. The COMPSYN package has two primary strengths. First, the Green's functions include the complete response of the Earth structure, so that all P and S waves, surface waves, leaky modes, near-field terms, and static displacements are included in the calculated seismograms. Second, the codes are computationally fairly fast (typical computation times are minutes) compared to fully three-dimensional codes, so that the user can simulate ground motions from many hypothetical rupture models in minimal time. The ISOSYN (Isochrone-integration Synthetic) applications use the isochrone-integration technique of Bernard and Madariaga (1984) and Spudich and Frazer (1984) as their basic calculational algorithm. These applications are appropriate for calculating high-frequency ground motions near large earthquake ruptures. The ISOSYN package has two primary strengths. First, it is computationally very fast (typical computation times of seconds), so that in principle the user can simulate ground motions from thousands of hypothetical rupture models in minimal time. Second, the graphical applications display many physical quantities on the fault that help the users understand and interpret the source effects, such as directivity and radiation patterns, that affect the calculated seismograms.
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We investigate by means of a 3-D geomechanical model the relationship between structural elements and contemporary kinematics in the Marmara Sea region, northwest Turkey. The recently imaged fault system beneath the Marmara Sea is incorporated into the model as frictional surfaces with varying strike and dip. The Main Marmara Fault is implemented as through-going and is accompanied by mostly non-vertical second-order faults. Topography, basement-topography and the Moho become mechanically effective through changes in density and elastic parameters across these horizons. The model is subjected to gravity and kinematic boundary conditions. The ultimate goal of this study is to set up a 3-D model that is consistent with both, kinematic observations and stress data. The stress results are presented in a complementary paper. In this paper we present the modelled long-term 3-D kinematics in terms of fault slip rates, rotations, vertical motion and sense of fault slip. The model results agree with Global Positioning System velocities, geological fault slip rates, palaeomagnetic measurements and with the observed pattern of subsidence and uplift. Furthermore, our tectonically driven vertical velocities can be linked to landscape and basin evolution and to features of sedimentation. Our results indicate that the Main Marmara Fault can be interpreted as a through-going fault that slips almost purely in a strike-slip sense. Nevertheless, and not contradictory to the previous statement, there is significant dip-slip motion at some sections of the Main Marmara Fault. The agreement of the modelled 3-D kinematics with model-independent observations supports that the main structural details of the fault system are accounted for. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters reveals that changes in rock properties and the initial stress state have minor influence on the 3-D kinematics. We conclude that the 3-D structure of the fault system is the key control of the kinematics. The slip rate of the Main Marmara Fault from our model is lower than previous estimates and shows high variability along strike (12.8–17.8 mm a–1). The latter indicates that stress accumulation is non-uniform along strike.
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We propose a new source-time function, to be used in kinematic modeling of ground-motion time histories, which is consistent with dynamic propagation of earthquake ruptures and makes feasible the dynamic interpretation of kinematic slip models. This function is derived from a source-time function first proposed by Yoffe (1951), which yields a traction evolution showing a slip-weakening behavior. In order to remove its singularity, we apply a convolution with a triangular function and obtain a regularized source-time function called the regularized Yoffe function. We propose a parameterization of this slip-velocity time function through the final slip, its duration, and the duration of the positive slip acceleration (Tacc). Using this analytical function, we examined the relation between kinematic parameters, such as peak slip velocity and slip duration, and dynamic parameters, such as slip-weakening distance and breakdown-stress drop. The obtained scaling relations are consistent with those proposed by Ohnaka and Yamashita (1989) from laboratory experiments. This shows that the proposed source-time function suitably represents dynamic rupture propagation with finite slip-weakening distances. published 1211–1223 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti JCR Journal
Finite difference simulations of seismic wave propagation for unerstanding earthquake physics and predicting ground motions: Advances and challenges
  • H Aochi
  • T Ulrich
  • A Ducellier
  • F Dupros
  • D Michea
Aochi, H., T. Ulrich, A. Ducellier, F. Dupros, D. Michea, Finite difference simulations of seismic wave propagation for unerstanding earthquake physics and predicting ground motions: Advances and challenges, J. Phys: Conf. Ser., 454, 012010, doi: 10.1088/1742--6596/454/1/012010, 2013.
Dynamic rupture and ground motion simulations in the Sea of Marmara
  • H Aochi
  • T Ulrich
Aochi, H., and T. Ulrich (2014). Dynamic rupture and ground motion simulations in the Sea of Marmara, 2nd European Conference of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (ECEES), Istabul, Turkey, 24-29 August 2014.