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Effect of Population Growth Rate on Economic Development in
India
Bhanu Phani Krishna Koduru
BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
bhanuphanikrishna8@gmail.com
Archana Tatavarthi
BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus
f2013256@pilani.bits-pilani.ac.in
Abstract
The main aim of this work is to find the
effects of rapid population growth on
economic development in India. This is
very important because India is second
most populated country in the world and
many studies show that India will
overtake china soon based on the
population growth rate in both of these
countries. So the study of relationship
between these variables may help the
government to consider the effect of
population growth on their policies in
future.
This paper is mainly divided into
five parts. In part 1, we try to make the
reader familiarize with the existing works
on this topic. Part 2 lists the variables
which are relevant to show how
population growth and economic
development interact. In part 3, we will
look upon how the developed countries
have progressed and the interaction
between these variables in those
countries. In part 4, the relationship
between these variables in the Indian
context is looked upon and we also try to
project the expected values of the
variables concerned for the coming 20
years. In part 5, using the projected data
and the case studies of developed
countries, we try to suggest a few policies
which can fasten the economic progress in
the country. This paper ends with the
conclusion and a few remarks.
Index Terms:
Population growth, Economic
development, Economic progress,
Developed and developing countries,
Linear regression model.
Background:
Based on the history of all the developed
countries, we can find that the human capital
is a major component of growth. This can be
basically said from the fact that resources
required for economic growth are driven by
the availability of human capital. Other
positive affects of population growth are
economies of scale, the possibility of
increasing market for the goods produced in
the country, and the new attitudes,
ideologies, creativity they bring compared to
the older population. But population growth
may also have adverse affect on a nation’s
growth. This is because many resources has
to be spent on the rising human population
and it creates pressure on the limited natural
resources a country has and diverts the
resources to maintain the capital than
increasing the stock of capital per worker.
Therefore the study of a relationship
between these variables is important.
The actual evidence on the relation between
population growth and economic growth
does not lead to any uniform or standard
conclusion. This just varies from country to
country and something which is found in the
past may not be applicable to the future. But
there is a higher probability that history of a
relationship between these variables in a
country can predict the future relationship.
So the focus on these variables in India is
important. This paper is quite different from
the other papers in terms of the variables
used and the way the theories are explained.
Introduction:
Effect of Population Growth Rate on
Economic development is one of the most
debatable topic on earth. There are a lot of
theories which show that rise in population
has negative effect on both economic growth
and development of a country. All these
debates have started since Malthus proposed
his theory in the book “Essay on the
Principle of Population”. He tried to find out
the reason for diminishing returns in most of
the countries and he said that Population
growth is the major reason. His theory goes
in as follows:-
Population increases by
compounding
Food Production doesn’t get
compounded
The new population will not get
sufficient amount of food.
Some adverse event(Starvation,
crisis etc) causes decline in the
population. Then this leads to food
production and population coming
back to the equilibrium.
There are generally three different types of
views on how population effects the
economic development of a nation. One,
opposing the positive impact on economic
development. Two, supporting the negative
effect of economic development. Three, they
believe that there is no relation between
economic development and population
growth.
Malthusian Population Trap is the main
example for the theories which support
negative impact. There are a few other
theories which support the positive impact
stating the importance of human capital on
economic development in a country. This
also rises from the fact that any growth in
the economic development needs human
capital as its main weapon and the rise in
population can act as a provider of human
capital. According to this view population
growth is the real strength and power of a
country. They also say that with higher
population, we will have high labor force
and this will help for creating labor diversity
in the nation and in turn will help for the rise
in output of a nation.
But there is a possibility of other way
around too. This population rise can be a
disaster if we don’t use them properly. This
is the major problem with most of the
developing countries face.
Both the stands of views present their
arguments about population growth and
economic development. Each of the views is
supported both theoretically and empirically.
Objective:
The main objective of the study is to analyse
the impact of population growth rate on
economic development in India by doing the
regression analysis of different variables
which act as indicators for economic
development and the population growth.
Then we plan to compare the results with the
other studies.
Literature Review:
Many researchers analyzed the relationship
between economic and demographic
variables in the past. Most of them has
produced mixed results and they vary in
their conclusions.. Professor Schultz used
time series data of Sweden and produced the
result that 25% decline in fertility is
explained by 50% decrease in infant
mortality rate.
Xiujian Peng (2002) examined the
relationship between rise in the productivity
of population growth and the labor divison.
He found that the change is productivity is
not explained by the growth of population.
But he found that division in labour has
increased the productivity. He also
explained that the increase in population of a
nation helps the improvement in division of
labor in a country.
Kothare(1999) investigated the
relationships between population growth and
economic development of the indian
economy. of 1988 to 1998. He concluded
that India is one of the world’s fastest
growing economies, primarily due to the rise
in population growth creating a positive
effect on its long run economic growth.
India is now ranked one of the top producers
in agriculture and is a top nation in terms of
GDP in a developing country. In many
cases, economists are correct in saying that
population growth has a positive effect on
economic growth of a nation. In reality,
economists might say, "If it weren’t for its
high populations India would still be a
suffering developing nation.
Gill (1992) investigated the relationships
between population growth and economic
development for the economy of India. He
concluded that population growth is good
but up to some extent, while large
population growth caused pressure on
resources within the economy. Large
population growth has negative impact on
economic development.
According to Aguirre (1999), ―There are
many debates going on the impact of huge
population growth of a nation. The approach
for almost all of them is different and their
motivation is different too. A working
knowledge of the parties and their
underlying philosophies will allow one to
shift through the diverse rhetoric and hold
them up to the light of scientific data.
Indian Scenario
In India, the population has increased from
682.5 million in 1980 to 1259.695 million in
2015. Whereas the GDP in 1980 is 186
billion US Dollars and it has reached a new
heights by getting almost close to 2 trillion
dollars. Luckily in India, the rise in GDP has
outsmarted the Population growth and this
led to a positive progress in the country. But
at the same time when we compare the
progress of our nation with the other nations
which were in level with us 30 years ago, we
did let ourselves down. Most of the studies
state that the continuous increase in the
population of the nation has led to the slow
growth rate of nation. But they do agree that
the increase in population has led to the
variety in labor. This variety in labor also
led to the overall increase in productivity of
the nation. So we just can’t blame the
population growth to be the main reason to
slow the progress.
If we compare ourselves with the China,
they also had a huge population rise but they
are able to cope up with that and they
created one of the top most economies in the
world. The inefficiencies in the Government
may be one of the reasons for slowing down
the progress of our nation. So we considered
the Corruption Perception Index as a
variable in our model and we wish that this
will produce some good results.
The low literacy rate may be one of the
reasons for the slow economic growth of our
nation and at the same time the
unemployment in the nation also created a
lot of chaos in the country. The government
is unable to live up to the expectations and
they didn’t create enough employment
opportunities in the nation. So we
considered unemployment rate of the
country as a variable.
Many studies have shown that economic
freedom of a nation plays a key role in the
growth of output of a nation and also in the
economic progress. India has consistently
performed badly in terms of economic
freedom and the inefficiencies in the
centralized implementation of rsources made
it worse. So this can also be one of the
reasons for slow performance of our nation.
So we considered the economic freedom
index also as an variable in our model.
Poverty and Inequality:
Poverty and income inequality are the direct
as well as indirect result of the above
mentioned factors. Thus rapid population
growth is one of the important problems of
India. For the betterment of the economy, if
the population growth must be slow.
Pressure on Natural Resources:
India was an agricultural nation for majority
of the years in the past. The cultivable land
and almost all other things depend on
irrigation. Supply of both cultivable land
and the water for agriculture became
stagnant in India. But the population growth
remained to be consistently high. So this
increased the pressure on other factors too.
Population pressures are alarming for arable
land, forests and water resources. The size
of arable land has decreased due to
population pressure, inadequate arable land
reforms and inheritance patterns. Before the
mid of this century, India is projected to face
a scarcity of cultivable land and other
resources. The projections also state that in
another 150 years, India will face the
scarcity of electricity and this will also lead
to chaos in the nation.
Methodology
Different papers use different models to
explain the theory. For our paper we are
going to use the model of Sher Ali (2009).
Y = ß 0 + ß 1 PG + ß 2 UN + ß 3 HRD + ß 4 TOP + µ(F)
Y = GDP Growth
POP = Population growth
UN = unemployment rate
HRD = Human Resource Development
TOP = trade openness
µ = White noise error term
This research study has adopted the same
model. But we made a few changes in the
variables used. We replaced a few of those
variables and included Unemployment rate,
Corruption Perception Index, Foreign Direct
Investment and Economic Freedom. Our
model is of this form
Y = ß 0 + ß 1 PG + ß 2 UN + ß 3 FDI + ß 4 CPI + µ.
Y = Real GDP growth
PG = Population Growth
UN = Unemployment Rate
FDI = Foreign Direct Investment
CPI = Corruption Perception Index
NAT = Natural Resource Depletion
Data Source:
The data for this model are collected from
different sources like Reserve Bank of India
(RBI), National Sample Survey
Organization (NSSO), Heritage, Population
Census. We have used the regression
analysis to find out the estimates of these
coefficients. The World Bank data is also
used to re-verify the data.
Results:
After the initial regression analysis, we have
have found the following conclusions which
are shown in the table below.
R Square
0.961307
Adjusted R
Square
0.947488
Standard
Error
136.0381
Observation
s
20
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
F
Significan
ce F
Regression
5
6436942
128738
8
69.5645
9
2.2E-09
Residual
14
259089.3
18506.3
8
Total
19
6696032
Coefficien
ts
Standard
Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower
95%
Upper
95%
Lower
95.0%
Upper
95.0%
Intercept
-1368.22
1153.978
-
1.18565
0.25543
-3843.26
1106.88
-
3843.26
1106.88
X Variable 1
328.001
192.0778
1.70767
0.10971
-83.9649
739.968
-
83.9649
739.968
X Variable 2
-493.409
137.7615
-
3.58162
0.00306
-788.878
-197.94
-
788.878
-197.94
X Variable 3
3.009302
0.750224
4.01127
0.00127
1.400233
4.61832
1.40023
3
4.61837
2
X Variable 4
6.874176
7.143433
0.96237
0.35223
-8.44697
22.1952
-
8.44697
22.1953
2
X Variable 5
-36.9894
73.35758
-
0.50423
0.62199
-194.326
120.346
9
-
194.326
120.346
9
Where X1 is Corruption Perception Index
X2 is unemployment rate (yearly)
X3 is population (in million)
X4 is FDI inflows (in billion USD)
X5 is natural resource depletion
(% of GNP)
Having a closer look at the p values, we had to
omit the FDI variable and natural resource
depletion, it’s p value being much greater than
0.1 and hence it lead us to a model with three
independent variables.
Natural resource depletion(% of GNP)
It is the sum of net forest depletion, energy
depletion, and mineral depletion. Net forest
depletion is unit resource rents times the excess
of round wood harvest over natural growth.
Energy depletion is the ratio of the value of the
stock of energy resources to the remaining
reserve lifetime (capped at 25 years). It covers
coal, crude oil, and natural gas. Mineral
depletion is the ratio of the value of the stock
of mineral resources to the remaining reserve
lifetime (capped at 25 years). It covers tin,
gold, lead, zinc, iron, copper, nickel, silver,
bauxite, and phosphate.
Unemployment rate(% of total labor force)
Unemployment refers to the share of the labor
force that is without work but available for and
seeking employment.
Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI)
Since 1995,annually ranking countries "by
their perceived levels of corruption, as
determined by expert assessments and opinion
surveys." The CPI generally defines
corruption as "the misuse of public power for
private benefit."
The CPI ranks around 177 countries "on a scale
from 10 (very clean) to 0 (highly corrupt).
The regression is run again after omitting the
variables FDI and Natural Resource Depletion.
Now the regression results are in the table
given below.
Where X1 is Corruption Perception Index
X2 is unemployment rate (yearly)
X3 is population (in million)
Conclusion:
Our analysis has shown that the population
growth had a positive impact on the economic
development in India. We can also find that
Population Growth, Unemployment and
Corruption Perception Index has explained
97.895% variation of Y. The p values are well
below 0.05 and the multiple R2 is 0.97895.
Therefore the above three independent
variables can be considered and they explain
about 97.89% of changes in GDP and thus the
final equation we obtained is:
Y = -2050.5+ 426.3572 CPI – 504.11 UN +
3.383108 POP.
From this we can say that for every unit
increase in population, the GDP grows by
3.383108 units. This shows that Population
growth has a positive impact on the economic
development of India.
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.978975
R Square
0.958393
Adjusted R
Square
0.950591
Standard
Error
131.9572
Observations
20
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
F
Significance
F
Regression
3
6417429
2139143
122.8497
2.94E-11
Residual
16
278603
17412.69
Total
19
6696032
Coefficients
Standard
Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper
95%
Lower
95.0%
Upper
95.0%
Intercept
-2050.5
862.0924
-2.37851
0.030181
-3878.05
-222.942
-3878.05
-222.942
X Variable 1
426.3572
160.9928
2.648301
0.01753
85.06782
767.6467
85.06782
767.6467
X Variable 2
-504.11
132.594
-3.80191
0.001566
-785.197
-223.024
-785.197
-223.024
X Variable 3
3.383108
0.63438
5.332938
6.73E-05
2.038283
4.727933
2.038283
4.727933
References:
1. Sadik, N., 1997. Social Change _ The
Essence of Development, Pak Dev Rev,
36: 315-20
2. Afzal, M., 2009. Population Growth
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Pakistan, The Open Demography
Journal, 2: 1-7.
3. .Rosen, J.E. and S.R., 1995. Pakistan’s
population program: the challenges
ahead.
4. Xiujian Peng, 2002. Population
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Economic Development In Selected
Asian Countries. IUSSP Regional
Conference on Southeast Asia’s
Population in a Changing Asian
Context held at Bangkok, Thailand, 10-
13, June.
5. Ali, R., 2010. Workers’ Remittances
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