Determinants of market value of goats in Afghanistan

Abstract

An attempt was made to identify factors influencing goat production and marketing which is at subsistence level in crop-livestock production system and to scale it up to commercial level in Nangarhar and Baghlan provinces of Afghanistan. Data were collected from 240 goat producers that were randomly selected in equal proportions for rainfed and irrigated systems from 24 villages in 4 districts of target provinces. Results from the double-log linear regression model used for both meat and dairy goats indicated that age of goat and production system were significantly influencing meat goats while in case of dairy goats, these factors were non-significant but positive. However, some common determinants were live weight of goat, place of marketing, source of market information and location of goat producers. The study enables goat producers to plan their goat sales with higher incomes and reinforce their motivation to scale up production.

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Present address: 1Socio-Economist (srinictcri@yahoo.com;
s.tavva@cgiar.org), 4Country Manager, ICARDA, Afghanistan
Program, Kabul. 2Director, Social, Economic and Policy Research
Program, ICARDA, Amman, Jordan. 3Regional Coordinator, The
World AgroForestry Centre, South Asia, New Delhi.
With a national herd of 7.3 million goats and an average
holding size of 2.4 animals (FAO Livestock census 2003),
goats are an essential element in the farming systems and
the livelihoods (income from live meat and dairy goat sales)
of rural communities in Afghanistan (Srinivas et al. 2013,
2014). The price agreed by producers and buyers depends
on the goat producers knowledge of factors of market supply
and demand, skills in assessing animal condition and weight,
as goats are not weighed before purchase (Bett et al. 2011);
and knowledge of different attributes of goats preferred by
different buyers (Francis 1990). Knowledge of bio-
economic traits of goats and its relationship with pricing of
live goats is the main pre requisite for designing an efficient
pricing policy (Pati and Rao 2006). It is necessary to
understand factors influencing market price of goats that
can be used by goat producers in formulating better
strategies for production and marketing of goats especially
in countries like Afghanistan with poorly developed market
intelligence system.
This study was conducted to evaluate the factors that
determine market price of goats in Baghlan and Nangarhar
provinces having 3.28 and 3.24% of total goats in the
country with 1.75 and 2.2 goats/family, respectively. This
information provides important insights into how producers’
can better tailor their goat sales to increase profitability.
The hypothesis of this study was that market value of goats
Indian Journal of Animal Sciences 86 (9): 1068–1072, September 2016/Article
Determinants of market value of goats in Afghanistan
SRINIVAS TAVVA1, ADEN AW-HASSAN2, JAVED RIZVI3 and YASHPAL SINGH SAHARAWAT4
International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, Lebanon
Received: 7 January 2016; Accepted: 24 February 2016
ABSTRACT
An attempt was made to identify factors influencing goat production and marketing which is at subsistence
level in crop-livestock production system and to scale it up to commercial level in Nangarhar and Baghlan provinces
of Afghanistan. Data were collected from 240 goat producers that were randomly selected in equal proportions for
rainfed and irrigated systems from 24 villages in 4 districts of target provinces. Results from the double-log linear
regression model used for both meat and dairy goats indicated that age of goat and production system were
significantly influencing meat goats while in case of dairy goats, these factors were non-significant but positive.
However, some common determinants were live weight of goat, place of marketing, source of market information
and location of goat producers. The study enables goat producers to plan their goat sales with higher incomes and
reinforce their motivation to scale up production.
Key words: Afghanistan, Determinants, Goat production, Market prices
is influenced by different attributes of goats and by farmer
access to information networks. The specific objective was
to identify different factors influencing goat market price.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Goat producers (240) were randomly selected in equal
proportions for rainfed and irrigated systems from 24
villages in 4 districts in Baghlan (Baghlan-e-Sannhati and
Pul-I-Kumiri) and Nangarhar (Dar-e-Noor and Achin)
provinces. The districts were purposively selected in order
to represent areas where development activities such as
improving the skills and knowledge of rural women in
raising dairy goats, processing and marketing surplus
products and improving the use of natural resources and
their access to technologies under the “Goats for Women
Project”. The International Centre for Agricultural Research
in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) has been implementing
International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)-
co-funded research programme “Rehabilitation of
Agricultural Livelihoods of Women in Marginal and Post-
conflict Areas of Afghanistan” in Nangarhar and Baghlan
provinces of Afghanistan.) were implemented and to include
others without project activities (Achin district). Six villages
from each district and 10 households from each village were
selected randomly.
Data on biological and economic traits of goats (live
weight, sex, age, breed), their market price, time of
marketing (to capture demand during festival season),
location of market place of the latest live goat transactions,
and access to market network of the goat producer in
different production system during 2009 were collected

September 2016] DETERMINANTS OF MARKET VALUE OF GOATS IN AFGHANISTAN 1069
97
from goat producers using a structured questionnaire. In
the absence of any records on goat transactions, producers
were asked to give prices they received for their goats during
their latest goat transactions. It was observed from the data
recorded that there were 192 goat producers who sold only
meat goats, 30 goat producers who sold only dairy goats
and 18 goat producers who sold both meat and dairy goats.
Thus, there were 210 meat goats and 48 dairy goats sold in
the market by the goat producers. Therefore, two models
were developed to identify the determinants of market value
of meat goats and dairy goats separately.
Double-log linear regression model: Market price of
goats depends on the purpose for which goat was transacted.
Determinants of the market value of meat goat and that of
dairy goat are likely to be different. Biological (breed, sex,
kidding rate) and economic traits of goats (live weight, age,
milk productivity), socio-economic factors (experience in
goat husbandry, source of market information) and
entrepreneurial skills of goat producers (sales timing
corresponding to festival demand, physical location of sales
transaction such as village, district and provinces) in
different production systems in different provinces, are
expected to influence the market value of a live goat.
Dummy variables were introduced for qualitative factors
such as breed, sex, market information source, sales timing,
physical location of sales transaction, production system
and provinces of goat producers in both the models (Gujarati
2007). The following functional form was used for meat
goat:
Ln Ymi = 0 + 1 ln Lwtmi + 2 ln Ami + 3 ln Expmi + 4 ln Gbdmi
+ 5 ln Gsdmi + 6 ln Misdmi
+ 7 ln Stdmi + 8 ln Mpdmi + 9 ln Psdmi + 10 ln Gppmi + Umi
equ…..(1)
The following functional form was used for dairy goat:
Ln Ydi = 0 + 1 ln Lwtdi + 2 ln Adi + 3 ln Expdi + 4 ln Ampdi +
5 ln Krdi + 6 ln Gbddi
+ 7 ln Misddi + 8 ln Stddi + 9 ln Mpddi + 10 ln Psddi + 11
ln Gppdi + Udi equ …..(2)
Equation 1 corresponds to meat goat model while
equation 2 is for dairy goat. Ymi and Ydi are market value of
meat and dairy goat in Afs of the ith goat producer
respectively. Independent variables in the equation 1 and 2
are denoted with subscripts m and d for meat and dairy
goats respectively. Lwt is the live weight of goat; A is age
of live goat at the time of transaction, Exp is the experience
of goat producer in goat husbandry, Amp is the annual milk
produced, Kr is the kidding rate during last season, Gbd is
the goat breed dummy (for meat goat, the values are 1 for
Gujiri goat and 0 otherwise; for dairy goat the values are 1
for Asmary, Chily and Watani goats and 0 otherwise), Gsd
is the goat sex dummy (Male goat, 1 and 0 otherwise), Misd
is the market information source dummy (Neighbors as
market source of information, 1 and 0 otherwise), Std is
the sales timing dummy (sales time corresponds to Eid-ul-
Fitr and Eid-ul-Zuha, 1 and 0 otherwise), Mpd is the market
place dummy (Goat transactions in district market, 1 and 0
otherwise), Psd is the production system dummy (goat
producer from irrigated production system and 0 otherwise),
Gpp is the goat producer province (Goat producer from
Nangarhar, 1 and 0 otherwise) and U is the disturbance term.
Summary statistics of the variables used in the models
such as mean, minimum, maximum and standard deviation
were estimated.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Meat goats
Descriptive statistics: Summary statistics for all the
variables in the equation 1 (Table 1) showed lot of variability
as evident from their high standard deviation. It also gives
an indication on the extent of differences in the market value
and live weight of meat goats and the age and experience
of goat producers in goat husbandry among sample farmers.
Table 1. Descriptive statistics for meat goat sales
Variable Minimum Maximum Mean Std.
deviation
Goat sales 1000 6500 3407 1212.296
price in Afs
Live weight of 7 43 24 8.093
goat sold in kg
Age of goat sold 0.1 4 1.5 0.654
in years
Goat rearing experience 1 48 10.9 8.666
in years
Parameter estimates together with their corresponding
standard errors and t-ratios from the regression analysis of
meat goat (Equation 1) are presented in Table 2. R2 value
indicated that 74% variation in the market value of meat
goats was explained by the variables included in the model.
Significant F value indicated that the model fit was good.
Among different determinants of market value of meat goats
included in the model, live weight, age of the meat goat,
goat sex, market place, source of neighbours as market
information to goat producers and provincial location of
goat producers have positive and significant influence on
the market value of meat goat.
It is imperative from the coefficient of live weight of
goat that for every 1 kg increase in the weight of meat goat
sold, market value increases by Afs 75. Aged goats with
good body weight can command better market price as
evident from the significant coefficient for age of goat sold
in the market. Shukla et al. (1996), Kumar and Singh (1999)
and Yogi et al. (2015) have reported similar results in their
studies conducted in India. Market value for male meat goat
is more than female meat goat as evident from the positive
significant coefficient for meat goat sex dummy (Kumar
and Singh 1999). One % increase in the sale of meat goat
in district markets, increases market price by 7% over other
markets (village and provincial).
Lack of awareness about market (and price) information
leads goat producers to sell goats at lower prices in nearby
markets to meet immediate cash needs. Neighbours have
been playing major role as goat market and price
information source. Information from neighbours enables

1070 TAVVA ET AL. [Indian Journal of Animal Sciences 86 (9)
98
goat producers to bargain for better price as evident from
the positive and significant coefficient for the market
information source dummy (0.058). This is good indication
that goat producers have inherent interest to know about
market prices prevailing in different markets. Therefore, it
is necessary to improve market intelligence system at least
in the identified markets.
Goat producers from Nangarhar province are able to
command better market price over Baghlan. Nangarhar
markets have advantage of more traders from bordering
Pakistan also and hence demand is more than in Baghlan.
Goat producers (provinces) location is thus showing positive
and significant coefficient.
Dairy goat
Descriptive statistics: Summary statistics for all the
variables in the equation 2 (Table 3) also showed lot of
variability as evident from their high standard deviation. It
also gives an indication on the extent of differences in the
market value and live weight of dairy goats, annual milk
production and the age and experience of goat producers in
goat husbandry among sample farmers.
Parameter estimates together with their corresponding
standard errors and t-ratios from the regression analysis of
dairy goat (Equation 2) are presented in Table 4. R2 value
indicated that 68% variation in the market value of dairy
goats was explained by the variables included in the
model. Significant F value indicated that the model fit
was good. Among different determinants of market value
of dairy goats included in the model, live weight, market
place, and provincial location of goat producers have
positive and significant influence on the market value of
dairy goat.
It is clear from the coefficient of live weight of goat that
for every 1 kg increase in the weight of dairy goat sold,
market value increases by Afs 52 (Shukla et al.1996). One
% increase in the sale of dairy goat in district markets,
increases market price by 20% over other markets (Village
and provincial).
Like in case of meat goat, goat producers from Nangarhar
province are able to command better market price over
Baghlan goat producers. Nangarhar markets have advantage
of more traders from bordering Pakistan also and hence
demand is more than in Baghlan. Goat producers
(provinces) location is thus showing positive and significant
coefficient.
Live weights and prices of goats traded: In the meat
goat model, live weight of goat, goat sex, market place,
location of goat producer and source of market information
while in the dairy goat model, live weight, market place
and goat producer location have played an important role
Table 2. Coefficients and their standard error for variables in
double-log linear regression model for meat goat sales
Variables Coefficient Std. t-ratio
() error
Constant 5.499*0.187 29.337
Live weight of goat sold in kg 0.756*0.065 11.703
Farmers’ meat goat rearing –0.016 0.019 –0.839
experience in years
Age of goat sold in years 0.072** 0.036 2.009
Goat sex dummy 0.078** 0.036 2.191
Market place (goat sold in 0.076** 0.031 2.412
district markets) dummy
Goat breed dummy (Gujiri) –0.038 0.043 –0.893
Production system dummy 0.025 0.029 0.860
for goat
Major market information 0.058** 0.029 2.019
source (neighbors) dummy
Sale season dummy (sold during 0.008 0.029 0.281
ramadan and eid-ul-adha)
Location dummy (Provinces) 0.182*0.045 4.080
R20.743 0.205
F Change 57.247*
*significant at 1%; **significant at 5%.
Table 3. Descriptive statistics for dairy goat sales
Variable Minimum Maximum Mean Std.
() error deviation
Goat market sales 1000 5800 3277 1266.800
price in Afs
Goat live weight in kg 7 40 24 7.446
Goat age in years 1.0 4 2 0.727
Goat farmer experience 1.5 40 9 8.124
in years
Goat annual milk 10 2100 316 408.039
production in litres
Goat kidding rate 1 4 2 0.825
Table 4. Coefficients and their standard error for variables in
double-log linear regression model for dairy goat sales
Variables Coefficient Std. t-ratio
() error
Constant 6.204*0.634 9.783
Goat live weight in kg 0.523** 0.210 2.494
Goat age in years 0.118 0.134 0.886
Goat farmer experience in years –0.062 0.064 –0.975
Goat annual milk production –0.011 0.047 –0.233
in litres
Goat kidding rate –0.070 0.204 –0.344
Market place (sold in district 0.200*** 0.105 1.903
markets) dummy
Goat breed dummy –0.038 0.122 –0.311
Production system dummy for goat 0.053 0.096 0.557
Major market information source 0.119 0.093 1.283
dummy (neighbors)
Sale season dummy (sold during –0.013 0.099 –0.131
festival season)
Goat location dummy (Provinces) 0.482** 0.186 2.586
R20.681 0.288
F Change 6.981*
*significant at 1%; **significant at 5%; ***significant at 10%.

September 2016] DETERMINANTS OF MARKET VALUE OF GOATS IN AFGHANISTAN 1071
among different variables considered. Therefore an attempt
was made to explain the goat marketing in Baghlan and
Nangarhar provinces taking into account the variations in
the live weight and prices of goats with respect to sex,
market place, province, etc.
Goat sales by sex and province: Male goats dominated
the meat goat sales volume in both provinces. Seventy seven
% of goats transacted by goat producers were males and
23% were females among meat goats. Males sold at a higher
percentage in Nangarhar province (87%) than in Baghlan
(71%).
Ninety percent of Gujry (meat breed) goats transacted
were from Nangarhar as it was the dominant breed there.
As Gujry is the most preferred breed for meat purpose,
males were sold at a later stage after attaining good weight,
coinciding with Eid Al Adha, as 50% of them were sold in
December. The average live weight of male and female
goats sold in Nangarhar province was almost same (29 and
30 kg each) with no significant difference, but female goats
(20 kg) were heavier than the male goats (18 kg) of Baghlan
province. Thus, male and female goats sold in Nangarhar
province were heavier than from those sold in Baghlan
province (Table 5).
Overall, males fetched higher prices than females. Price/
kg live weight of males was higher in Baghlan while in
Nangarhar province it was higher for females. The high
prices for females need to be further probed especially in
Nangarhar province. As the total number of female Gujry
and Tedipk goats sold were only eight and five respectively
in the current survey sample in Nangarhar province, this
data is not sufficient to test whether the difference in the
price/kg live weight between male and female was
Table 5. Live weights, prices/head/kg and correlations between live weight-price and live weight-age
for goats in Baghlan and Nangarhar provinces (province and sex wise)
Parameter Baghlan Nangarhar Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female
Number 76 31 85 13 162 48
% goats transacted 71 29 87 13 77 23
Market value of goat (Afs**) 2588 2610 4203 4494 3446 3277
Live weight of goat (kg) 18 20 29 30 24 24
Average market price per kg live weight (Afs) 148 129 145 149 146 138
Annual milk production (l) 0 332 0 296 0 319
Age of goat (years) 1.41 1.92 1.42 1.74 1.41 1.86
Neighbor as source of market information (1, Neighbor as market 53 45 47 29 49 40
source; 0, otherwise) (%*)
District as market place (1, district; 0, otherwise) (%*) 76 7149596267
Location dummy (1, Nangarhar; 0, otherwise) (%*) 0 0 101 100 53 35
Goat age 1 (1, <1year; 0, otherwise) (%*) 14360102
Goat age 2 (1, 1–2 years; 0, otherwise) (%*) 86 97 95 100 90 98
Meat goat dummy (1, meat goat; 0, otherwise) (%*) 3 6 34351917
Production system dummy (1, irrigated; 0, otherwise) (%*) 47 5252534952
Time of sale (1, sold during festival season; 0, otherwise) (%*)51 3535354335
Correlation between market price and live weight 0.78 0.58 0.84 0.81 0.90 0.81
Correlation between market price and goat age 0.58 0.38 0.70 0.59 0.48 0.19
** Afs is the abbreviation for the Afghanistan currency Afghani. One US $ = Afs 48 in 2012.
* represents % goat producers involved in using the parameter in consideration
significant or not.
The high market price and live weight correlations
obtained indicated that prices offered were proportional to
live weights. This also suggests that goats were mainly
purchased for slaughter and prices were arrived based on
live weight of the goat. Similarly high correlation between
the price of male goats and the age at the time of sales
indicates that male goats are sold after attaining good body
weight while female goats were retained for breeding and
dairy products.
Weights and prices by production system: Prices and live
weights of goats were also analysed by production system
(Table 6). There was no significant difference in the weight
of goats sold between irrigated (23 kg) and rainfed (24 kg)
production systems. It would be interesting to find out the
possible reasons as this is contrary to the theoretical
expectations. However, this is beyond the scope of this paper
as this requires additional data on feeding sources and
quantity available of each source and feeding calendar
followed in both the production systems. Price/kg live
weight was more in irrigated production system (Afs 146)
than in rainfed (Afs 141). The high price-live weight
correlation coefficient obtained for both production systems
indicates that prices offered for animals were proportional
to live weights.
The study indicated that live weight of any goat (meat
and dairy) is important in getting good market price if sold
in district markets especially in Nangarhar markets. Age of
the goat, and source of information about market prices are
influencing market value of goats sold. Thus goat producers
when plan their sale of male goats with an average weight
of above 1.5 kg in district markets from irrigated production
99

1072 TAVVA ET AL. [Indian Journal of Animal Sciences 86 (9)
system can get better market price and this can motivate
them to take up this subsistence goat rearing to commercial
level.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors are grateful to the International Fund for
Agricultural Development (IFAD) for their financial support
to the project “Rehabilitating Agricultural Livelihood of
Women in Marginal and Post-Conflict Areas of Afghanistan
and Pakistan”. The authors gratefully acknowledge the hard
work of the ICARDA team based in Afghanistan in a very
difficult and insecure environment. Sincere thanks are due
to the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock
(MAIL) of Afghanistan, and its provincial Directorates in
the two target provinces. Without the full cooperation
and support received from the Ministry of Women Affairs,
trading and farming communities, ‘Shuras’ and ‘Village
Elders’, and security updates/assistance from providing
agencies, it would not have been possible to conduct this
study.
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Table 6. Live weights, prices per head and per kg and price/live weight correlations for goats
(Production system, province and goat sex wise)
Parameter Baghlan Baghlan Nangarhar Nangarhar All All
Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed
Buck Doe Buck Doe Buck Doe Buck Doe Buck Doe Buck Doe
Number 36 16 40 15 44 9 42 8 80 25 82 23
Market price of live goat (Afs**) 2450 2613 2713 2607 4261 4344 4143 4663 3446 3236 3445 3330
Live weight (kg) 16 19 19 21 29 30 28 31 23 23 24 25
Goat market price per kg live weight (Afs) 153 136 144 123 145 147 145 152 147 141 145 135
Age of goat (Years) 1.30 1.81 1.50 2.04 1.44 1.78 1.39 1.69 1.38 1.80 1.45 1.92
Experience in rearing goats (years) 10 5 8 11 15 15 12 10 13 8 10 12
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Market information source (1, Neighbor 44 38 60 53 50 22 43 38 48 32 51 48
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Festival sales (1, sold during festival 58 38 45 33 34 44 36 25 45 40 40 30
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Correlation (price and live weight) 0.86 0.89
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