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Simulation Analysis of Brain Drain in Iran using System Dynamics Approach

Conference Paper (PDF Available)  · July 2016with354 Reads

Conference: Conference: the 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, At Delft, Netherlands.
Abstract
Today, manpower is one of the prerequisite for a comprehensive development and skilled and educated manpower is considered the society's driving force, losing which is deemed to be like losing the country's main assets. In this study, by examining five scenarios based on the improvement of various factors and their analysis, it became clear that the improvement of social and cultural factors was effective in reducing the brain drain phenomenon. However, it did not have a significant impact on the reduction of the rate of elite emigration. Moreover, it was revealed that focusing on educational factors, in particular in the long run, in addition to the significant reduction of the rate of brain drain, could widely lead to the reduction of the rate of elite emigration. Finally, by using a scenario in form of the improvement of a combination of cultural, social and educational factors at the same time, both in the short-and long-term, the highest efficiency can be obtained, providing us with a significant reduction in both the rate of elite emigration and the rate of brain drain.
Figures
Figure 12: The results of the fourth scenario simulation for the brain drain rate from 2010 to 2030 @BULLET The results of the Fifth Scenario simulation: Implementing the scenario 5 based on Figure 13, it is observed that the elites' emigration rate is less since the beginning of the allowed year for imposing the scenario, comparing with the Zero Scenario and is constant until 2014. Imposing the policy of short-term educational modifications for the first time at the end of the 20-year period, this scenario could stop and fix the growing rate of elites' emigration. This scenario could reduce the brain drain rate since 2025 in a long term. As it is shown in Figure 14, the brain drain rate with imposing mixed short-term and longterm modification could constantly reduce the brain drain rate since the beginning of the allowed year for imposing the scenario and this is a great success for this scenario.  
The results of the fourth scenario simulation for the brain drain rate from 2010 to 2030 @BULLET The results of the Fifth Scenario simulation: Implementing the scenario 5 based on Figure 13, it is observed that the elites' emigration rate is less since the beginning of the allowed year for imposing the scenario, comparing with the Zero Scenario and is constant until 2014. Imposing the policy of short-term educational modifications for the first time at the end of the 20-year period, this scenario could stop and fix the growing rate of elites' emigration. This scenario could reduce the brain drain rate since 2025 in a long term. As it is shown in Figure 14, the brain drain rate with imposing mixed short-term and longterm modification could constantly reduce the brain drain rate since the beginning of the allowed year for imposing the scenario and this is a great success for this scenario.