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The purpose of this paper is to present the chronological development of risk assessment techniques and models undertaken in construction project for the past two decades. This research used a systematic review and meta-analysis on risk assessment of construction project literatures. This includes browsing relevant researches and publications, screening articles based on the year of publication, identifying the domains and attributes. Accordingly, findings of major results achieved have been presented systematically based on the chronology of the research and research gaps are identified. From the review, it is found out that the dominant risk assessment tools used for the past twenty years is statistical analysis and fuzzy expert system.
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DOI: 10.4018/IJRCM.2016100101
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Volume 5 • Issue 4 • October-December 2016
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Ermias Tesfaye, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology; Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Eshetie Berhan, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology; Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa Ethiopia
Daniel Kitaw, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology; Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
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The purpose of this paper is to present the chronological development of risk assessment techniques
and models undertaken in construction project for the past two decades. This research used a systematic
review and meta-analysis on risk assessment of construction project literatures. This includes
browsing relevant researches and publications, screening articles based on the year of publication,
identifying the domains and attributes. Accordingly, findings of major results achieved have been
presented systematically based on the chronology of the research and research gaps are identified.
From the review, it is found out that the dominant risk assessment tools used for the past twenty years
is statistical analysis and fuzzy expert system.

Construction Project Risk, Risk Analysis, Risk Assessment, Risk Factor, Risk Modelling

Various authors have defined project risk in different way. Project risk has positive and negative
effects on project objectives (Adedokun, Ogunsemi, Aje, Awodele, & Dairo, 2013; Wang, Dulaimi,
& Aguria, 2004). It is the measure of the probability, severity and the exposure to all hazards of an
activity (Sarkar & Panchal, 2015). Risk is closely connected to uncertainty and is a commonly used
term in all kinds of contexts, but is often related to the negative outcome of a certain event. Moreover,
risks have stochastic nature (Hamzaoui, Taillandier, Mehdizadeh, Breysse, & Allal, 2015).
There are different causes of risks in construction such as size, organizational and technical
complexities, speed of construction, location of the project, technology being used and familiarity
with the work (Dey & Ogunlana, 2004). In addition to the organizational and technical complexities,
project managers have to consider a growing number of parameters (e.g. environmental, social, safety
and security) and stakeholders, both inside and outside the project. The complexity of a project leads to
the existence of a network of interdependent risks (Fang & Marle, 2012), where complex phenomena
may occur, hard to anticipate and hard to keep under control (Fang & Marle, 2013).
Construction projects are initiated in complex and dynamic environments resulting in
circumstances of high uncertainty and risk (Adedokun et al., 2013; Hamzaoui et al., 2015; Zhen-Yu
& Lin-Ling, 2008). Risk and uncertainty are inherent in all construction work no matter what the
size of the project (Carr & Tah, 2001; Jha & Devaya, 2008). Unexpected risk involves the threat
of uncontrollable, unpredictable and unanticipated events, which are especially considered by the
management of large-scale projects, since these unexpected risk events (Hamzaoui et al., 2015; Huang,
Huang, & Hsieh, 2013). These risks have a direct influence on project success. Many projects tend
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Volume 5 • Issue 4 • October-December 2016
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to exhibit cost overruns and schedule delays (Koushki, Al‐Rashid, & Kartam, 2005; Mahamid, 2011;
Sarkar, 2012). Enormous researches conducted in different part of the world revealed that risks have
resulted significant cost and time overrun of the projects (Arditi, Akan, & Gurdamar, 1985; D. W.
M. Chan & Kumaraswamy, 1997; Floricel & Miller, 2001)
The literature on risk and risk assessment in projects is vast because project risk factor research
has been (and continues to be) of interest to both academics and practitioners (MEZHER & TAWIL,
1998). The area of risk management has received significant recognition in the field of project
management in recent years while the financial and economic crisis is evident globally.
It is very important to understand the actual practice of risk analysis and review the development
of construction risk modelling and assessment in an attempt to research viable alternatives that may
contribute to closing the gap.
However, few researches are there to summarize and capture the essential contribution and gaps
of the previous researches.
This paper reviews the existing literature on construction project risk managements particularly
on risk analysis. The aim of this literature review is to discover the development trends of risk
management, techniques and methods of risk analysis, identify the limitations of the existing risk
analysis techniques and recognize the future research directions on construction project risks.
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This research revealed the results of extensive review of the literature review of construction project
risk modelling and assessment. The study focuses on construction project risks such as highway, road
and building constructions. The target literature sources are limited to peer reviewed academic journals,
published in English. Papers published on construction risk assessment for the past two decades have
been reviewed. Relevant research papers are identified and gathered first, using keyword searching on
several online databases, including Emerald Database, Science Direct, Taylor and Francis, Springer
Link, Google Scholar, ProQuest, ABI/Inform, IEEE, IgentaConnect and Web of Science. For this
purpose, keywords used include “Risks in construction projects”, Risk quantification in construction
projects” Risk analysis in construction projects”, “Risk quantification and analysis in construction”
and “modelling project risks”. However, different combinations of them were used to validate the
extensiveness of the search results.
The search targeted the past two decades of available articles in the databases in order to review
the development of risk modelling and assessment.
As a result of the search, more than 208 journal articles have been found. However, through
systematic refinement, only 93 papers were found to be more relevant. Consequently, these articles
were reviewed and essential information was captured. This information includes authors’ name, year
of publication, paper title, journal title, country of origin, research method, data analysis method,
sector, purpose and research goals etc.
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The presence of risks and uncertainties inherent in project development and implementation plays
significant role in such a failure intrinsic in all stages of project (Nasirzadeh, Afshar, & Khanzadi,
2008). Because of complexity and dynamic nature of construction projects, they are exposed to
effects of plentiful factors leading to uncertainty in the timing and sequence of project activities
(A. P. Chan, Scott, & Chan, 2004). Project delays and cost overrun in the construction industry are
common and taken as a global phenomenon (Mahamid, 2014; Sambasivan & Soon, 2007). As a result,
construction is a risk-prone industry with delays in project completion, cost overrun and failing to
meet quality standards.
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The pressure on project delay and cost, the need for improved performance in the construction
industry and the increasing contractual obligations lead to the necessity of a more effective risk
management approach. Improving the risk management process is therefore a key challenge in
construction projects (Taillandier et al., 2015). {Taillandier, 2015, A multi-agent model to manage
risks in construction project; Taillandier, 2015 #2}. Thus, Risk analysis and management are an
important part of the decision-making process in construction industry.
Risk analysis has been known for more than two millennia since 3200 B.C. Despite the fact
that concept of risk analysis in construction is evident since the 1960s, it became a well-established
project management functions since 1980s. During the 1990’s different techniques and theories were
developed to account for unique nature of construction project risks.
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Researches indicate that the development trends of risk analysis have gained a momentum during the
1990s from the search results from 1995 – 2000 only three articles are obtained. Among these Mack
(1995) has used a fuzzy set theory to analyze uncertainties project conducted in Hong Kong. The
research by Edwards and Bowen (1998) is on the literature review of the future research directions
of risk analysis. No tools and techniques have been used except using literature review to identify the
research gaps. Ahmed, Ahmad, Saram, and Darshi (1999) has used mean scoring of the parameters
obtained from questionnaire to assess the risk allocation practices of contractors in Hong Kong.
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During this period most of the research has used the statistics and fuzzy set to analyze the risks on
construction project. Most of the researches are in Europe and Asia with the only exception of one
research from Australia. Tah and Carr (2000) has used a hierarchical risk breakdown structure and fuzzy
risk assessment model to illustrate the existing knowledge of risk management procedurally based on
the UK context. Mills (2001) has conducted a research in Australia to highlight the effectiveness of
systematic risk management and highlight the dangers associated with using incomplete assumptions
in risk analysis models. Carr and Tah (2001) has used a case study to assess the construction project
risks in London. He has used fuzzy risk analysis model as a tool.
Motiar Rahman and Kumaraswamy (2002) has used a questionnaire survey to assess the risk
management practices of construction industry in Hong Kong. He used arithmetic mean as a tool
to analyze the data obtained from the survey. The result of the research is only contextualizing the
existing knowledge to the Hong Kong construction industry to assess the perceptions of the present
and preferred risk allocation in construction contracts.
Thomas, Kalidindi, and Ananthanarayanan (2003) has used BOT road Projects to analyze the risk
perceptions and managements in India. The perception was evaluated by literature review, unstructured
interview and discussions with stakeholders of the project and questionnaire survey for their research
methodology and used regression analysis. Likewise, San Santoso, Ogunlana, and Minato (2003) the
same methodology to assess the risks associated with high rise building construction in Jakarta and
analyze it through mean value, correlation matrix and Bartlett’s test. Though the authors addressed
the risk impact in relation to the country’s specific context on the basis of statistical analysis, it fails to
meet the uncertainties of the sector raised by the respondents. On the other hand, Hillson (2003) has
used Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) to manage risks in United Kingdom but there is no significant
finding from the research.
Odeck (2004) has used Norwegian Public Road Administration (NPRA) database to assess the
cost overruns in road construction project. He used statistical relationship between the actual and
estimated costs of the road construction to identify the causes and size of cost overrun for the projects.
Dey and Ogunlana (2004) has analyzed the content and context of BOT projects for the selection
and application of risk management tools and techniques in Build-Operate-Transfer projects. They
reviewed literature and analyzed various kinds of risk analysis and tools and techniques to structure the
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existing findings and developed a model for selecting risk management tools and techniques. A risk
management framework for construction projects was developed by Wang et al. (2004) particularly
for developing countries. The research has used literature review, international survey, interviews
and discussions and analyzed it through statistical analysis, mean criticality and standard deviation
to develop the model. The model has enabled to better categorize risks and represent the influence
relationship among risks at different hierarchy levels as well as revealing the mitigating sequence
(priority of risks).
In 2005, the financial risks of Build-Operate-Transfer projects has been assessed by Xenidis and
Angelides (2005) through literature review, expert evaluation and questionnaire to identify 27 financial
risks of BOT projects. The research facilitates the risk analysis process that is being conducted by
risk managers prior to bidding for a BOT project and during the negotiation period.
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During this period more than 32 researches have been conducted on risk analysis throughout the
world. However, most of these researches are from Asia which accounts more than 50 percent. A
significant number of researches are from Africa and Europe.
Different authors have attempted to identify the risk factors and the corresponding impacts on
the projects through statistical analysis for data obtained from questionnaire, interview and literature
review and tried to conceptualize the existing knowledges of risks to the specific country (Al Zubaidi
& Al Otaibi, 2008; Alaghbari, Razali A. Kadir, Salim, & Ernawati, 2007; Andi, 2006; Bryde & Volm,
2009; Dada & Jagboro, 2007; Deng & Zhou, 2010; Enshassi, Al-Najjar, & Kumaraswamy, 2009;
Hlaing, Singh, Tiong, & Ehrlich, 2008; Ibrahim, Price, & Dainty, 2006; Kaliba, Muya, & Mumba,
2009; Khoshgoftar, Bakar, & Osman, 2010; Kululanga & Kuotcha, 2010; Manelele & Muya, 2008;
Panthi, Ahmed, & Ogunlana, 2009; Sachs, Tiong, & Wagner, 2007; Van Thuyet, Ogunlana, & Dey,
2007; Zou & Zhang, 2009; Zou, Zhang, & Wang, 2007).
A research conducted by Adams (2006) has used expert opinions through the support of elicitation
model to investigate construction contract risks and validated the application of Bayesian Method in
Mississippi. Thomas, Kalidindi, and Ganesh (2006) has used literature review, interviews and case
studies to assess and model the critical risks of BOT Road projects in India. He used a fuzzy-fault
tree to reduce the variability among the experts in the probability estimation of complex risk events.
Meeampol and Ogunlan (2006) has tried to contextualize the existing knowledge of risk analysis
using descriptive and inferential analysis to Thailand Construction projects to assess the project
success factors in relation to project performances though literature review and questionnaire survey.
Hassanein and Afify (2007) has reviewed the tender documents of power station projects in Egypt
to contextualize the existing knowledge of risk management in Egypt. They investigate contractor’s
perceptions of construction risks and their attitudes towards risk identification and management and
identified significant risks relevant to the case projects. Dikmen, Birgonul, and Han (2007) has used
fuzzy risk assessment together with influence diagram to rate cost overrun risks in international
construction projects in Turkey. Expert opinions are used to collect data through brainstorming session.
Zeng, An, and Smith (2007) studied the application of a fuzzy based decision making methodology to
construction risk assessment in UK using experts on real case data. They proposed a risk assessment
model based on fuzzy reasoning and modified AHP method to deal with the drawback of the AHP
method that it can only deal with definite scales and deal with qualitative and quantitative data and
information. Moreover, this research has also addressed the issue of uncertainties and subjectivities
arising in the factor comparison.
Adams (2008) validated the application of Bayesian method on the analysis of payment delays in
international contracts with the support of elicitation model in Ghana. Nasirzadeh, Afshar, Khanzadi,
and Howick (2008) addressed the issues of the dynamic behavior and uncertain nature of construction
risks by integration system dynamics and fuzzy logic modeling. Jha and Devaya (2008) introduces a
new approach based on structural analysis tools, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Matrix
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Cross-Reference Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) to the study of international
construction risks. Zayed, Amer, and Pan (2008) has identified the sources of risk and prioritize it
using AHP techniques in Chinese highway projects.
Perera, Dhanasinghe, and Rameezdeen (2009) has studied risk management practices in Sri Lanka
through multiple case studies, semi-structured interviews and documentary evidences to identify risk
responsibilities of contractual parties to improve their risk handling strategies. Kim, Van Tuan, and
Ogunlana (2009) incorporates uncertainties through their conditional probabilities through Bayesian
Belief Network based models for quantifying schedule risk in construction projects.
Makui, Mojtahedi, and Mousavi (2010) has used Fuzzy group TOPSIS for project risk
identification and analysis based on group decision making. Zavadskas, Turskis, and Tamošaitiene
(2010) adopts multi-attribute decision making methods to assess risks in Lithuania construction
projects. Al-Humaidi and Hadipriono Tan (2010) modelled the likelihood for the delays of construction
projects using rotational fuzzy fault tree model. Dikmen, Talat Birgonul, Ozorhon, and Egilmezer
Sapci (2010) integrates Analytical Network Process (ANP) with Delphi method to evaluate the
interrelations among the model parameters and the relative importance weights of risks in construction
firms. Kumaraswamy et al. (2010) illustrates the factors influencing the lack of coherence in risk
management practices within a Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects using Integrated Risk
Management System (IRMS) model.
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During this period, most of the researches has used fuzzy expert system as a tool for analyzing
construction project risks (Fouladgar, Yazdani-Chamzini, & Zavadskas, 2012; KarimiAzari, Mousavi,
Mousavi, & Hosseini, 2011; Kuo & Lu, 2013; Z. Lin & Jianping, 2011; Nieto-Morote & Ruz-Vila,
2011; Perera, Rameezdeen, Chileshe, & Hosseini, 2014; Polat & Neval Bingol, 2013; Ravanshadnia
& Rajaie, 2013; Xu, Lu, Chan, Skibniewski, & Yeung, 2012; Yazdani-Chamzini, Yakhchali, &
Mahmoodian, 2013). Another research method used for risk analysis during this period is the use of
questionnaires, literature review, interviews and experts opinion to identify risks the quantification
of data’s are interpreted using statistical means (Adedokun et al., 2013; Ameyaw & Chan, 2015;
Banaitienė, Banaitis, & Norkus, 2011; Chileshe & Boadua Yirenkyi-Fianko, 2012; Chileshe & John
Kikwasi, 2014; Doloi, 2012; Doloi, Sawhney, & Iyer, 2012; Famakin, Aje, & Ogunsemi, 2012; Jarkas
& Haupt, 2015; Ke, Wang, Chan, & Cheung, 2011; Lundin et al., 2015; Mahamid, 2011; Mousavi,
Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, Azaron, Mojtahedi, & Hashemi, 2011; Rostami, Sommerville, Wong, &
Lee, 2015; Shehu, Holt, Endut, & Akintoye, 2015; Špačková, Novotná, Šejnoha, & Šejnoha, 2013)
KarimiAzari et al. (2011) focuses on risk assessment model selection technique using fuzzy
TOPSIS. The research suggested the superiority of the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) for the
identification of decision criteria. However, it does not clearly state the advantage of this group
management technique over the others. W. Lin, Yaqi, and Enmao (2011) evaluated the impact of
risk factors using AHP.
Drouin, Besner, Besner, and Hobbs (2012) attempts to illustrate the problem of dealing with
ill-defined and uncertain projects with the existing risk management practices. Rasool, Franck,
Denys, and Halidou (2012) integrates Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) with Multi-criteria decision
method to validate RBS as a tool for evaluating risks in France construction projects. Xu et al. (2012)
developed a risk evaluation model using VBA, to efficiently address most risky areas in a PPP project
with reduced human and mathematical errors.
Yazdani-Chamzini et al. (2013) adopted the ELECTRE method to analyze risk in multiple
criteria rather from likelihood and consequence only by integrating AHP-ELECTRE under a fuzzy
environment. Polat and Neval Bingol (2013) presented two tools that can be used in international
projects for cost contingency estimation in bid price and compares the modeling mechanisms and the
performance of these approaches. Ravanshadnia and Rajaie (2013) setups a fuzzy TOPSIS framework
to evaluate and prioritize bidding opportunities. Kuo and Lu (2013) introduces the concept of Fuzzy
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Multiple Criteria Decision Making (FMCDM) and employs Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relations
(CFPR) to enhance and simplify the operations of the conventional AHP because of its difficulty and
inefficiency when huge number of pair-wise criteria comparison is required.
Yildiz, Dikmen, and Birgonul (2014) attempts to explore the process of assignment of risk
ratings by the decision makers and question how the reliability of the risk assessment process using
risk mapping tools. Budi, Deo, and Hilya (2014) provides an emphatically validated instrument to
assess organizational Project Risk Management (PRM) Maturity Level through a post hoc analysis,
simple averaging and factor score methods in Indonesia. Nasirzadeh, Khanzadi, and Rezaie (2014)
integrates fuzzy system dynamics based approach to address the issues of quantitative risk allocation
process with complex inter-related influencing factors as well as the contractor’s defensive strategies
in Iran. Taylan, Bafail, Abdulaal, and Kabli (2014) integrates fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS model
to assess the overall risks of construction project throughout its life time.
Salah and Moselhi (2015) developed a framework lies on the newly developed fuzzy-set based
model for estimating, allocating, depleting and managing contingency fund over the lifecycle of
construction projects. Hamzaoui et al. (2015) used tailor made RBS model for managing construction
project risks of railway projects in Algeria. Hossen, Kang, and Kim (2015) incorporates AHP-
RII methodology to assess delay risk in terms of severity and frequency of occurrences, and to
analyze the risk perception of different parties in the Nuclear Power Plant projects of Turkey. Iqbal,
Choudhry, Holschemacher, Ali, and Tamošaitienė (2015) highlights different significant risks,
ultimate responsibility, and risk management techniques practices on the countries context. However,
the problem related to construction projects were addressed, it falls to strengthen the reliability and
validity of the measurement.
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Though the topics of Construction project risk is a paramount factor for successful completion of
project, the attention given to it varies from continent to continent. Among the reviewed researches,
50% (47) researches were published in Asia, 25% (24) from Europe, 17% (16) researches from Africa
and the rest is from North America and Australia. However, the dispersion of these researches are
limited to specific countries as shown in Figure 1. One can easily understand that there is a limited
research in the area of construction project risks in Australia and North America.
On the other hand, the trends of publication is increasing from time to time for the past two
decades. Figure 2 revealed that the top publication year for the topic construction project assessment
is in 2015 where the number of publication during this year is only up to August 2015.
Different researchers have identified many different risk factors which are specific and contextual
to the culture, geography, economy, type of project and many other determinant issues. More than
126 risk factors have been identified from different researches. Table 1 shows only the summary of
Risk Factor Classification for Developing and Developed World Trend. However, the classification
of the risk factors in developed and developing world are similar, this might be due to the adoption
of the risk factors form previously published journals.
As shown in Figure 3, out of the 29 risk assessment methods identified, about 37.35 percent
of the papers adopted descriptive and inferential analysis, 7.23 percent descriptive and inferential
analysis with RII, 6.02 percent Fuzzy set theory, 2.41 percent shared by AHP Pair wise comparison,
Fuzzy fault tree, AHP-ELECTRE method, RBS Model respectively, Fuzzy TOPSIS and Bayesian
network share 3.61 percent respectively, 9.64 percent of the papers doesn’t clearly state the methods
implemented, the remaining 22.89 percent are equality distributed among 19 methods. Even though
the most commonly used method among researchers is the descriptive and inferential analysis it does
not necessarily indicate its strength. This is because it lacks to address the uncertainty and biasness
associated with the involvement of experts and project analyst. This large usage could possibly be
due its simplistic nature for implementation.
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
The review of the literature reveals the following key results:
Enormous risk factors are considered in different researches, however, these fiks factors are limited
to the geographic scope and types of project with the organizational and cross-cultural perspectives.
Though various researches have been conducted for decades, construction risk modelling is a
developing and ongoing process.
To date no satisfactory theory or tool for assessing the compounded effects of construction risk
on project objectives has been developed or proposed. To comprehensively understand a risk, it is
helpful to identify its causes as well as its effects. Several methods include this principle, but they
still concentrate on a single risk in order to simplify the problem. Many of these methodologies
independently evaluate the characteristics of risks, and focus on analysis of individual risks and
failed to consider the interactions of different risks.
The majority of existing risk assessment contributions have only delivered risk ratings.
Risk factors have interdependencies to each other and difficult to anticipate and control the
interrelationship between different risks (Fang & Marle, 2012, 2013). However, no suitable
methods are proposed and developed so far.
Figure 1. Number of Publication in each continent

Volume 5 • Issue 4 • October-December 2016
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Figure 2. Number of Publications per year
Table 1. Classification of risk factors in developed and developing countries
No. Risk Factor (Developed country) Risk Factor (Developing country)
1 Project stakeholders (client, contractor and owners generated) Project stakeholders (client, contractor and owners generated)
2 Financial, Political and Economic risks Procurement method
3 Security and safety risks Technical factor
4 Environmental and Physical risks Managerial factor
5 Personnel risks Operational factor
6 Contractual, legal and Technical risks External factor (environmental, Force majeure…)
7 Management risks Budget and financial risks
8 Procurement risks Contractual and legal risks
9 Operational risk Political and social risks
10 Physical risks
11 Safety risks
13 Resource risks
14 Government and political risks
15 Personnel risks

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
This paper presented a review of construction project risk assessment literatures published over
the last two decades. It focuses on the development of risk assessment techniques and tools. It also
focuses to contribution of different researches on the various techniques, theories and aggregation
rules. From the chronological study of the research, it was found out that the research tools used from
simple statistical tools to fuzzy expert system and the aggregation of this tool with AHP, TOPIS and
System Dynamics to accommodate the dynamic nature or risks. However, it was discovered that the
dominant researches have used statistical analysis to contextualize the construction risks based on
the geography or type of project under consideration.
The review had confirmed what was previously mentioned that the literature lacks a comprehensive
risk assessment framework which takes into account the different types of impact of the risk on different
project objectives simultaneously.
Figure 3. Risk analysis tools used

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
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Volume 5 • Issue 4 • October-December 2016
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... Literature on construction risk management is abound, therefore, it becomes very important to review and understand the development of studies in this domain, to enable the uncovering of new areas and closing of saturated ones. Attempts have been made to review risk management studies (Siraj & Fayek, 2019;Bahamid & Doh, 2017;Renault & Agumba, 2016;Tesfaye, Berhan & Kitaw, 2016), however, those attempts have yielded similar silo approach of focusing on specific aspect of risk management, rather than a holistic approach. The absence of this holistic perspective results in sub-optimality in knowledge within this domain. ...
... Article selection At the first stage, articles were first identified using the keywords to search from these online databases; Science Direct, Emeraldinsight, Google Scholar and ASCE library. The keywords were selected from review articles (Nabawy & Khodeir, 2020;Siraj & Fayek, 2019;Tesfaye, Berhan & Kitaw, 2016) on risk related topics, based on the common keywords used by researchers. For the purpose of this study the search words include; "Construction risk management", "risk identification and assessment", "Risk modelling in construction", "risk interactions in construction projects" etc. ...
Conference Paper
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Construction is a high risk industry that operates a very complex and dynamic environment, which significantly contributes to the existence of high uncertainty and risk in construction projects. Journal articles on review of literature surrounding risk abounds in construction management studies. However, such considerations have assumed a silo approach to risk management, for instance, focus on processes, thereby neglecting the holistic perspective to risk management. The absence of this holistic perspective results in sub-optimality in knowledge within this domain. Therefore, this study aims to undergo a systematic literature review, with the purpose of bringing forth a holistic perspective of researches in this field. Findings shows that studies in this domain have largely focused on three main themes of risk management, namely: practices, maturity and processes, with particular emphasis on processes. While the overwhelming majority of these studies are replicative, they fail to advance the frontiers of risk management knowledge for large projects. Such advancement is recognised within risk systemicity. However, studies focused within risk systemicity have continued to follow the trend in generic risk management considerations i.e. the silo approach. Although, risk systemicity consideration is relatively new, the lack of research on interactions and interdependencies within and between subsystems opens newer directions for risk management studies, particularly large projects. For instance, bringing out the components of a risk management system and studying the interactions within each component and those across them. Hence, the outcome of this paper, amongst others, contributed immensely as part of an ongoing PhD research on modelling the dynamic interaction of risk in large construction projects.
... As the future is unknown, risk and uncertainty exist. According to Tesfaye et al. (2016) risk and uncertainty are two common terms which are closely related with a negative outcome of a certain event. There are many ways of defining the relationship between risk and uncertainty. ...
... Jurnal ini dibuat di Malaysia dengan mengevaluasi 70 artikel tahun 2007 sd 2017 disimpulkan kurangnya komunikasi telah membuat proses manajemen risiko tidak bisa dilaksanakan (Salleh et al., 2020). Jurnal ini dibuat di Ethiopia yang menganalisa berbagai teknik, teori, dengan analisa fuzzy dari System Dynamics untuk mengakomodasi karakteristik atau risiko yang dinamis (Tesfaye et al., 2016). Jurnal ini dibuat di Iran dengan mengindenitas risiko disimpulkan risiko keuangan adalah risiko terbesar dalam proyek konstruksi (Tadayon et al., 2012). ...
Article
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Penulis melakukan review literatur dan jurnal terhadap risiko konstruksi dan keselamatan kerja di dalam proyek konstruksi, didapatkan bahwa risiko dan ketidakpastian itu selalu ada di dalam proyek konstruksi. Risiko terbesar pada industri kontruksi adalah risiko keuangan yang berasal dari pengguna jasa sebagai risk external non-technical risk dan keselamatan kerja yang berasal dari penyedia jasa sebagai internal non-technical risk menjadi salah satu unsur suatu proyek konstruksi bisa diselesaikan dengan tepat waktu, dikerjakan sesuai dengan biaya yang dianggarkan dan mempunyai kualitas pekerjaan seperti yang diperjanjikan. Studi ini dilakukan di dua puluh negara yang berbeda namun mempunyai hasil yang tidak jauh berbeda. Dengan mengetrapkan manajemen konstruksi dan Keselamatan dan Kesehatan Kerja (K3) dengan proses yang terstruktur, formal dan reaktif merupakan suatu cara untuk mengidentifikasi terjadinya hal yang tidak diinginkan terjadi dan merupakan faktor penentu keberhasilan untuk penerapan sistem manajemen risiko dan keselamatan kerja. review jurnal ini dapat dilihat bahwa identifikasi risiko pada proyek kontsruksi memiliki dampak yang cukup signifikan terhadap mitigasi risiko yang akan terjadi sehingga risiko-risiko yang mungkin akan terjadi dapat diantisipasi.
... In this review, the content of the selected literature items was quantitatively analyzed under codes that were adapted from the standardized codebook developed by Laplume et al. (2008). Specifically, the content was broadly classified according to: year of publication, author(s), article title, journal, number of risk factors and categories (independent variables), project sector, country, methodology, data source, and sample dimension (Mok et al., 2015;Tesfaye et al., 2016;Sartor et al., 2014). ...
Article
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With only half of the carbon footprint of coal, natural gas is widely considered to be an important transition fuel as the world economy shifts away from more carbon-intensive energy sources towards lower-carbon alternatives. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has accordingly grown as a solution for connecting producers and consumers of this valuable resource that are geographically separated by large distances or barriers that make pipelines infeasible. Many construction projects are underway or being planned around the world to bring onstream the vast amounts of infrastructure required for this strategically important energy source. Despite the importance of these projects, however, they are frequently plagued by significant overruns in both scheduling and cost that could impede the progress of the adoption of natural gas in both the short- and long-term. Towards understanding these impediments, this paper puts forward a systematic literature review that synthesizes project management research and prior contributions in the LNG domain to identify risk factors that are most important to schedule and cost overruns in LNG projects. We then put forward a series of research questions that highlight the most fruitful areas for future investigations in this area, thereby helping to lay the groundwork for research that would potentially speed up the rate at which new natural gas supplies can supplant more carbon-intensive fuel sources around the world. Keywords: Liquefied natural gas, LNG, Schedule overruns, Upstream, Risk factors
... Correspondingly, statistical techniques and Monte Carlo Simulation models have been applied to the risk analysis [33,57], and risk ranking [58]. Further, Tesfaye, Berhan [59] have carried out the literature review on methods which are used for construction project risk analysis. According to their research, five mostly used methods for risk analysis are descriptive and inferential analysis, descriptive and inferential analysis with RII, fuzzy set theory, fuzzy-TOPSIS, and Bayesian networks. ...
Research Proposal
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Infrastructure projects are large-scale and complex projects which are exposed to many uncertainties during its implementation period that could affect the successful completion of the project. Compared to traditional construction projects, infrastructure projects are exposed to higher risks due to their unique characteristics such as high capital investment and complex longitudinal site conditions. Usually, risks lead to significant cost overruns and schedule delays in projects. Recently, One Belt-One Road (OBOR) initiative has attracted a lot of attention since it cooperates with more than 65 countries in Asia, Europe, and Africa. The key element of OBOR is the infrastructure development since the infrastructure will play an essential role in fostering regional cooperation and connectivity. The aim of this research is multiple: to investigate the performance of transportation infrastructure projects in Asia and to identify causes of cost and time overruns of these projects; to identify potential risks of OBOR projects, to rank risk from the Chinese Contractor's perspective and to manage the key risks; and to reduce and prevent accidents at the construction site of infrastructure projects. In order to achieve the aim, several surveys was conducted in order to investigate the performance of transportation infrastructure projects on the Asian continent, the probability and impact of risks in OBOR projects and accident occurrence on the construction sites. Firstly, a sample of 104 infrastructure projects in 14 different countries in Asia (East, Central, South and Southeast) worth more than $100 billion have been analyzed in this survey. This study is empirical study, which is based on the collected data from the completed projects in Asia. The characteristics of project performance in terms of cost and time are determined and the key causes of cost and time overruns are identified. Secondly, a comprehensive literature review and interviews with Chinese Contractor's staff, who are participants of OBOR infrastructure projects are conducted in order to detect potential risks. In total, 43 potential risks are identified and classified into six categories according to their source and project phase in which they could occur. Compared to traditional international infrastructure projects, OBOR projects are result of the cooperation and bilateral and strategic agreement between China and other country. Hence, these projects are riskier than common international projects. Further, a novel method based on fuzzy matrices, fuzzy logic and probabilistic approach is developed and applied in order to rank potential risks. Furthermore, data about potential risks from other OBOR project in different countries is collected. This data is analyzed by the proposed fuzzy logic-based method in order to identify the key risks of OBOR projects. The third part is related to environmental incidents on the construction sites in Australia. A survey about occurred incidents is conducted and it is analyzed the causes, immediate actions, environmental impact, and time occurrence.
Article
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Keselamatan dan kesehatan kerja (K3) merupakan aspek penting dalam mengendalikan semua risiko yang ada didalam operasional proyek konstruksi gedung sehingga Penerapan K3 ditempat kerja dapat meminimalkan risiko kecelakaan kerja pada setiap kegiatan proses konstruksi dan produksi. Mengkaji kemungkinan risiko terkait implementasi K3 yang terjadi pada proyek konstruksi gedung sangat penting berdasarkan pengalaman beberapa proyek yang dilakukan sebelumnya. Hal ini berguna bagi pengelola proyek untuk mengantisipasi kemungkinan risiko keselamatan dan kesehatan kerja pada kondisi sekarang, sehingga bisa direncanakan strategi untuk menghadapi risiko tersebut dalam mencapai tujuan dari proyek untuk zero Accident., jurnal dan literatur mengenai risiko K3 pada proyek konstruksi bangunan yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya untuk mengetahui gambaran tentang risiko yang lebih mungkin terjadi dan cara-cara penanganan risiko yang dikembangkan. Dalam studi dilakukan pengelompokan risiko dalam 3 kategori yaitu: Risiko Internal, Risiko Eksternal, dan Risiko Proyek. Hasil kajian literatur ini menunjukkan bahwa Risiko Internal -non teknis memiliki dampak terbesar pada proyek konstruksi bangunan gedung di Indonesia dalam kurun waktu 10 tahun terakhir
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Although contingency allocation management is widely accepted as a proactive concept rich in theories, its applications do not seem to be well embraced in many countries due to many factors. This study aims to broadly investigate this theory-practice gap concerning contingency allocation in building projects in Sri Lanka. Twelve case studies with a desk review on seven local projects were carried out to explore the contingency allocation practice at the site level. Fifteen independent consultants were interviewed to share an understanding of the practical relevance of this research while largely eliminating the need for further justification. Code-based content analysis was used to analyze data. Nearly 44 incremental approaches were found to have theoretically evolved in a history of 35 years. It was revealed that the practice of ascertaining contingency sums is ad-hoc, informal, and subjective. More than 25 gaps were detected, while nearly 50 strategies were introduced. An impression among the practitioners is that the formal methods are overly theoretical.
Chapter
Scope management in the form of reduction lists was integrated in the quality assurance scheme for Norwegian public projects in 2001. This article presents findings on the actual use of reduction lists for major public construction projects Project representatives were contacted to obtain information about the actual use of pre-defined potential scope reductions. Eight of the 14 studied projects did not implement any of the predefined reductions. Six projects implemented some of the reductions. The scope reductions on the reduction lists are very specific and detailed, unlike general theory on scope management and cost control. However, the findings from the study are in line with the general theory; it was the most general scope and cost reductions that where used in practice. The study subsequently looked into the relationship between scope reductions and sustainability. Although the most frequently observed reduction was of the category “reduced quality or functionality”, sustainability was rarely affected with the notable exception of the railway infrastructure projects.
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International engineering procurement construction (IEPC) is a complex subject interconnected with risk transfer. In-depth understanding of risks in IEPC projects is essential for effective risk management and managerial strategies. Most related studies focus on the critical risks based on the perceptions of stakeholders or their direct “contribution” to the project loss. This study aims to investigate risk interconnection in IEPC projects through social network analysis, with a focus on the critical risks, risk interactions, and risk mitigation strategies. Three approaches were employed, literature review, questionnaire and social network analysis. From the obtained results, we concluded that controlling security and contract risks in project management can reduce the occurrence or impact of other risks. Moreover, environmental issues related to contractors are also critical in international construction projects. Investigating relationships between risks has uncovered different risk-propagation mechanics within IEPC projects, thus extending the theoretical knowledge for international construction and risk management.
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Risk management is an important field of construction industry and has gained more importance internationally due to the latest researches carried out on a large scale. However, this relatively new field requires more attention to bring some benefit. Construction projects are facing a number of risks which have negative effects on project objects such as time, cost and quality. This study is based on findings of a questionnaire-based survey on risk management in construction projects in Pakistan, reporting the significance of different type of risk, ultimate responsibility for them and the effectiveness of some most common risk management techniques practiced in the industry. Two types of risk management techniques were considered: preventive techniques which can be used before the start of a project to manage risks that are anticipated during the project execution; and remedial techniques that are used during the execution phase once a risk has already occurred. The study revealed that financial issues for projects, accidents on site and defective design are the most significant risks affecting most of construction projects. As further reported, the contractor is responsible for management of most risks occurring at sites during the implementation phase, such as issues related to subcontractors, labour, machinery, availability of materials and quality, while the client is responsible for the risks such as financial issues, issues related to design documents, changes in codes and regulations, and scope of work. Further reported results of the analysis demonstrate that the production of proper schedule by getting updated data of the project and guidance from previous similar projects are the most effective preventive risk management techniques while close supervision and coordination within projects are the most effective remedial risk management techniques. It may be concluded that the most significant risks must be managed with greater effort to reduce/eliminate their effects on the project. As the study concludes, preparation of a proper schedule and good coordination during the implementation stage are very important as they may help project managers to focus on critical areas for better management of projects in Pakistan.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify, explore, rank the relative importance and determine the prevalent allocation response trends of the major construction risk factors considered by general contractors operating in the State of Qatar. Design/methodology/approach – A structured questionnaire survey comprising 37 potential risk factors was distributed to a statistically representative sample of contractors. The influence ranks of the factors explored were determined using the “Relative Importance Index (RII)” technique, whereas the prevalent trend of contractors’ attitudes toward risk allocation of each factor investigated was quantified and expressed as a percentage, based on the number of respondents who selected a specific option, in relation to the total number of respondents. Findings – The results obtained indicate that risks related to the “client” group are perceived as most critical, followed by the “consultant”, “contractor” and “exogenous” group-related factors, respectively. The outcomes further show that the “transfer” option is the contractors’ prevalent response to “client” and “consultant”-related risks, while the “retention” decision is the principal pattern linked to “contractor” and “exogenous” group-related risk factors. Research limitations/implications – The dominant respondents’ perception that the crucial construction risks are related to clients and consultants suggests that these two parties have an essential role in controlling the negative ramifications of the associated factors. Practical implications – The findings suggest that increasing designers’ awareness of the significant effect of applying the constructability concept can considerably help reducing the risks concomitant of the construction operation. Policy makers may contribute, moreover, in alleviating the risk of incompetent technical staff and operatives’ employment by controlling the migration of inexperienced and unskilled construction workforce into the State. Originality/value – Given the knowledge gap for the major construction risk factors considered by general contractors in Qatar, the results reported in this study can provide clients, industry practitioners and policy makers with guidance to effectively manage the significant risks determined, which can further assist in achieving a reasonable level of competitiveness and cost-effective operation.
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Risk management is an important field of construction industry and has gained more importance internationally due to the latest researches carried out on a large scale. However, this relatively new field requires more attention to bring some benefit. Construction projects are facing a number of risks which have negative effects on project objects such as time, cost and quality. This study is based on findings of a questionnaire-based survey on risk management in construction projects in Pakistan, reporting the significance of different type of risk, ultimate responsibility for them and the effectiveness of some most common risk management techniques practiced in the industry. Two types of risk management techniques were considered: preventive techniques which can be used before the start of a project to manage risks that are anticipated during the project execution; and remedial techniques that are used during the execution phase once a risk has already occurred. The study revealed that financial issues for projects, accidents on site and defective design are the most significant risks affecting most of construction projects. As further reported, the contractor is responsible for management of most risks occurring at sites during the implementation phase, such as issues related to subcontractors, labour, machinery, availability of materials and quality, while the client is responsible for the risks such as financial issues, issues related to design documents, changes in codes and regulations, and scope of work. Further reported results of the analysis demonstrate that the production of proper schedule by getting updated data of the project and guidance from previous similar projects are the most effective preventive risk management techniques while close supervision and coordination within projects are the most effective remedial risk management techniques. It may be concluded that the most significant risks must be managed with greater effort to reduce/eliminate their effects on the project. As the study concludes, preparation of a proper schedule and good coordination during the implementation stage are very important as they may help project managers to focus on critical areas for better management of projects in Pakistan.
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In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.
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Full-text available
Risk management is critical for success in project-based industries, especially in the construction industry. In current literature, various risk-based decision support systems have been proposed to systematically identify and assess risks. However, majority of these systems use the risk ratings assigned by the decision-makers, mainly, probability and impact ratings, as input values and quantify the level of risk associated with the project based on these inputs. However, in majority of the cases, these ratings are assigned based on the subjective judgment of the decision-makers and highly depend on their level of knowledge, risk attitude and assumptions. This paper attempts to explore the process of assignment of risk ratings by the decision makers and question how the reliability of the risk assessment process can be enhanced in practice. In this effort, a risk mapping tool that has been developed by the authors is used to conduct a case study that explains how the risk ratings are defined by different decision- makers and identify the reasons of possible divergence between assigned ratings. In this regard, a case study is conducted with three construction experts by using data of a real construction project and risk assessment exercise has been repeated using different strategies to collect expert opinion on risk ratings. The results of the case study show that although the subjectivity of ratings and sensitivity to risk attitude cannot be totally overcome, some strategies may be used to ensure a more reliable risk rating process. Those strategies mainly cover minimization of divergence of assumptions made by the decision-makers, clarifying what is included under the identified risk factors by defining sub-risk attributes and facilitating group decision-making.
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The literature on construction and project risk management published during the period from 1960 to 1997 is reviewed and analysed to identify trends and foci in research and practice. This analysis is used to identify gaps and inconsistencies in the knowledge and treatment of construction and project risk. The findings suggested that political, economic, financial and cultural categories of construction risk deserve greater research attention, as do those associated with quality assurance, and occupational health and safety. Temporal aspects of risk, and risk communication, are also important fields for investigation.
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This paper reports the outcomes of the first of three planned questionnaire surveys in the first phase of a broader Hong Kong based study on ‘Joint Risk Management’ (JRM). The survey compared perceptions on both present and preferred risk allocation, including JRM, in construction contracts. Data was mainly collected in Hong Kong and mainland China (with most respondents having working experience from Hong Kong) from various professionals and practitioners representing broad groups of academics, consultants, contractors and owners (clients). Survey results reinforce previous observations (in Canada) of the divergences in perceptions on both present and preferred risk allocation, both within and between different contracting parties. The present study reveals quite wide (marked) divergencies with many individual cases of diametrically opposing views on allocating particular risks within specific groups. Despite such divergencies, respondents professed a general enthusiasm towards JRM, irrespective of their contractual or professional affiliation. Moreover, they generally preferred to assign reduced risks from either one or both contracting parties to JRM, rather than shifting more risks to the other party. This is indicative of a perceived trend towards more collaborative and teamwork based working environments.
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Presence of risks and uncertainties inherent in project development and implementation plays significant role in poor project performance. Thus, there is a considerable need to have an effective risk analysis approach in order to assess the impact of different risks on the project objectives. A powerful risk analysis approach may consider dynamic nature of risks throughout the life cycle of the project, as well as accounting for feedback loops affecting the overall risk impacts. This paper presents a new approach to construction risk analysis in which these major influences are considered and quantified explicity. The proposed methodology is a system dynamics based approach in which different risks may efficiently be modeled, simulated and quantified in terms of time, cost and quality by the use of the implemented object oriented simulation methodology. To evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology it has been employed in a bridge construction project. Due to the space limitations, the modeling and quantification process for one of the identified risks namely "pressure to crash project duration" is explained in detail.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a newly developed fuzzy-set based model for estimating, allocating, depleting, and managing contingency fund over the life cycle of construction projects. Design/methodology/approach – Fuzzy set theory is utilized in the design and development of proposed contingency modelling framework to incorporate uncertainties associated with the development phases of construction projects. A set of developed indices, measures, and ratios are introduced to quantify and characterize these uncertainties. The developed framework is designed to incorporate expert opinion and provide user-system interaction. Findings – The results obtained from the application of the developed framework on actual project case not only illustrate its accuracy, but also demonstrate its capabilities for contingency management over life cycle of construction projects. Unlike other methods, the framework provides project managers with structured method for contingency depletion utilizing a set of depletion curves and selection factors. Originality/value – The novelty of the developed framework lies not only in its new developments for contingency estimating but also its modelling for contingency allocation and depletion. It is expected to be of direct value to industry professionals and academics interested in contingency management over the entire life cycle of construction projects. The proposed framework provides management functions and features beyond those generated through Monte Carlo simulation and even those developed using fuzzy set theory.