No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene
Abstract
An oscillation with a period of about 2100-2500 years, the Hallstatt cycle, is found in cosmogenic radioisotopes (C-14 and Be-10) and in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene. Herein we demonstrate the astronomical origin of this cycle. Namely, this oscillation is coherent to the major stable resonance involving the four Jovian planets - Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune - whose period is p=2318 yr. The Hallstatt cycle could derive from the rhythmic variation of the circularity of the solar system disk assuming that this dynamics could eventually modulate the solar wind and, consequently, the incoming cosmic ray flux and/or the interplanetary/cosmic dust concentration around the Earth-Moon system. The orbit of the planetary mass center (PMC) relative to the Sun is used as a proxy. We analyzed how the instantaneous eccentricity vector of this virtual orbit varies from 13,000 B. C. to 17,000 A. D.. We found that it undergoes kind of pulsations as it clearly presents rhythmic contraction and expansion patterns with a 2318 yr period together with a number of already known faster oscillations associated to the planetary orbital stable resonances. We found that a fast expansion of the Sun-PMC orbit followed by a slow contraction appears to prevent cosmic rays to enter within the system inner region while a slow expansion followed by a fast contraction favors it. Similarly, the same dynamics could modulate the amount of interplanetary/cosmic dust falling on Earth. These would then cause both the radionucleotide production and climate change by means of a cloud/albedo modulation. Other stable orbital resonance frequencies (e.g. at periods of 20 yr, 45 yr, 60 yr, 85 yr, 159-171-185 yr, etc.) are found in radionucleotide, solar, aurora and climate records, as determined in the scientific literature. Thus, the result supports a planetary theory of solar and/or climate variation.
... However, others counter that if solar activity was a major climatic driver in the past, then it is plausible that it has also been a major climatic driver in recent climate change. Moreover, if the role of solar activity in past climate change has been substantially underestimated, then it follows that its role in recent climate change may also have been underestimated [28,33,[36][37][38][39]54,55,63,182,186,187,[259][260][261][262][263][264][265][266][267]]. ...
... These studies are often supplemented by additional studies presenting further evidence for substantial past climatic variability (with the underlying but not explicitly tested assumption that this may have been solar-driven) [30,39,54,55,262]. Other studies present further evidence for substantial past solar variability (with the underlying but not explicitly tested assumption that this contributed to climate changes) [112,261,279,280]. ...
... A common limitation of these analyses is that the longer the period of the proposed frequency being evaluated, the longer a time series is required. The datasets with high resolution typically only cover a relatively short timescale (of the order of decades to centuries), meaning that they cannot be used for evaluating multi-centennial cycles [62,99,126,194], while studies using the longer paleoclimate records tend to be focused on longer periodicities [261,262], although some studies combine the analysis of long paleoclimate records with shorter instrumental records [259]. That said, some records can be used for studying both multi-decadal and centennial timescales. ...
To evaluate the role of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. 16 different TSI estimates were compiled from the literature. 1/2 of these estimates are low variability and 1/2 are high variability. 5 largely-independent methods for estimating NH temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring temperature proxies; 5) glacier length temperature proxies. The standard estimates using urban as well as rural stations were anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates. This suggests urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Still, all 5 estimates confirm it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some global warming since 1850. For the 5 estimates of NH temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all 16 estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity in recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC's recommended anthropogenic forcings time series. For all 5 NH temperature series, different TSI estimates implied everything from recent global warming being mostly human-caused to it being mostly natural. It seems previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) that had prematurely concluded the former failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with NH temperature trend estimates. Several recommendations are provided on how future research could more satisfactorily resolve these issues.
... The occurrence of these quasi-periodic climate changes is interpreted as being related to internal mechanisms, such as ice sheet dynamics or ocean-atmosphere system variations (MacAyeal, 1993;Alley et al., 1999), or to external mechanisms, including (1) the biannual passage of the Sun across the intertropical zone induces hemi-precession (~12 kyr) cycles (Berger et al., 2006;Sun and Huang, 2006); (2) nonlinear signal transformation produces suborbital harmonics or combination tones of primary Milankovitch cycles (Pestiaux et al., 1988;Rodrìguez-Tovar and Pardo-Igùzquiza, 2003;Da Silva et al., 2018) and (3) solar forcing (Dergachev, 2004;Elrick and Hinnov 2007;Xapsos and Burke, 2009;Vieira et al., 2011;Steinhilber et al., 2012;McCracken et al., 2014;Usoskin et al., 2016;Usoskin, 2017). A debated planetary beat hypothesis (PBH) on SA (Charvátová, 2000;Abreu et al., 2012;Scafetta 2012Scafetta , 2014aMörner, 2013;Mörner et al., 2013a;Holm, 2014;Cauquoin et al., 2014;McCracken et al., 2014;Yndestad and Solheim, 2016;Sánchez-Sesma, 2016;Scafetta et al., 2016;Zharkova et al., 2019) could reconcile the apparent contradiction of suborbital cycles with similar quasi-periods across solar proxies and nonlinear harmonics and/or combination tones of primary Milankovitch cycles (Table 4). In fact, according to PBH, the motion of the giant planets generates a beat on the Sun in the form of gravity (tidal force) and angular momentum with respect to the solar system's barycenter, which is called solar inertial motion (SIM) (Charvátová, 2000;Paluš et al., 2007;McCracken et al., 2014;Scafetta et al., 2016;Zharkova et al., 2019). ...
... A debated planetary beat hypothesis (PBH) on SA (Charvátová, 2000;Abreu et al., 2012;Scafetta 2012Scafetta , 2014aMörner, 2013;Mörner et al., 2013a;Holm, 2014;Cauquoin et al., 2014;McCracken et al., 2014;Yndestad and Solheim, 2016;Sánchez-Sesma, 2016;Scafetta et al., 2016;Zharkova et al., 2019) could reconcile the apparent contradiction of suborbital cycles with similar quasi-periods across solar proxies and nonlinear harmonics and/or combination tones of primary Milankovitch cycles (Table 4). In fact, according to PBH, the motion of the giant planets generates a beat on the Sun in the form of gravity (tidal force) and angular momentum with respect to the solar system's barycenter, which is called solar inertial motion (SIM) (Charvátová, 2000;Paluš et al., 2007;McCracken et al., 2014;Scafetta et al., 2016;Zharkova et al., 2019). The planetary beat may thus affect the Earth both directly via its gravity pulse, as well as indirectly via its effects on the solar dynamo, acting the solar wind control on the incoming cosmic rays, and thus also on the production of cosmogenic radionuclides (Charvátová, 2000;Paluš et al., 2007;Abreu et al., 2012;Mörner et al., 2013b;McCracken et al., 2014;Zharkova et al., 2019), although the physical problem remains unclear (McCracken et al., 2014;Scafetta, 2014b). ...
... Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun were found to be related to the long-term SIM of the solar system, and are closely linked to total solar irradiance (Zharkova et al., 2019). Thus, the solar system can be considered as a resonator of planetary orbital periods characterized by a specific harmonic planetary structure that also synchronizes the Sun's activity and the Earth's climate (McCracken et al., 2014;Scafetta, 2014a;Scafetta et al., 2016). The SAi.e. the emission of heat, electromagnetic waves, and particlesis known to change with cycles ranging from several years to decades, centuries, and millennia (Kern et al., 2012;Mörner et al., 2013b;Usoskin, 2017;Wu et al., 2018a). ...
We use the benefits of the full-resolution methodology for time-series decomposition singular spectrum analysis
to assess the quantitative impact of orbital and, for the first time, millennial-scale Sun-related climate responses
from EPICA records. The quantitative impact of the three Sun-related cycles (unnamed ~9.7-kyr; proposed
‘Heinrich-Bond’ ~6.0-kyr; Hallstatt ~2.5-kyr), cumulatively explain ~4.0% (δD), 2.9% (CO2), and 6.6% (CH4) in
variance, demonstrating for the first time the minor role of solar activity in the regional budget of Earth’s climate
forcing. A cycle of ~3.6 kyr, which is little known in literature, results in a mean variance of 0.6% only, does not
seem to be Sun-related, although a gravitational origin cannot be ruled out. According to the recurrence analysis
of Heinrich events (6.03 ± 1.4 kyr) and their correlation with EPICA stack ~6.0-kyr cycle, it is proposed that this
band of solar activity be named the ‘Heinrich-Bond cycle’. On these basis, it is deemed that the ‘Heinrich-Bond’
solar cycle may act on the ice-sheet as an external instability factor both related to excess ice leading to calving
process and IRD-layers (‘cold-related’ Heinrich events), and surface heating with meltwater streams (‘warm-related’
Heinrich events). The Hallstatt cycle is found in a number of solar proxies, geomagnetic secular variations,
paleoclimatic oscillations, combination tones of Milankovitch forcings and resonant planetary beats,
indicating an apparent ‘multi-forcing’ origin possibly related to planetary beat hypothesis. The orbital components
consistently reflects the post-Mid-Pleistocene transition nature of the EPICA records in which the short
eccentricity results in most of the variance (51.6%), followed by obliquity (19.0%) and precession (8.4%).
Beyond the Milankovitch theory, evidence is emerging of a multiple-forcing cosmoclimatic system with stochastic
interactions between external (gravitational resonances, orbitals, solar activity) and Earth’s internal
(geodynamics, atmosphere composition, feedback mechanisms) climate components, each having a strong difference
in terms of the relative quantitative impact on Earth’s climate.
... However, others counter that if solar activity was a major climatic driver in the past, then it is plausible that it has also been a major climatic driver in recent climate change. Moreover, if the role of solar activity in past climate change has been substantially underestimated, then it follows that its role in recent climate change may also have been underestimated [28,33,[36][37][38][39]54,55,63,182,186,187,[259][260][261][262][263][264][265][266][267]]. ...
... These studies are often supplemented by additional studies presenting further evidence for substantial past climatic variability (with the underlying but not explicitly tested assumption that this may have been solar-driven) [30,39,54,55,262]. Other studies present further evidence for substantial past solar variability (with the underlying but not explicitly tested assumption that this contributed to climate changes) [112,261,279,280]. ...
... A common limitation of these analyses is that the longer the period of the proposed frequency being evaluated, the longer a time series is required. The datasets with high resolution typically only cover a relatively short timescale (of the order of decades to centuries), meaning that they cannot be used for evaluating multi-centennial cycles [62,99,126,194], while studies using the longer paleoclimate records tend to be focused on longer periodicities [261,262], although some studies combine the analysis of long paleoclimate records with shorter instrumental records [259]. That said, some records can be used for studying both multi-decadal and centennial timescales. ...
In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estimates are “low variability” and half are “high variability”. Meanwhile, five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring widths as temperature proxies; 5) glacier length records as temperature proxies. The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates, suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets - despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Nonetheless, all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some “global warming” since the 19th century. For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended “anthropogenic forcings” time series. For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series, different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades (implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused) to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity (that is, that recent global warming is mostly natural). It appears that previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) which had prematurely concluded the former, had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates. Therefore, several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided.
... For example, Tung and Zhou [40] claimed that the multidecadal variability shown by the Central England Temperature (CET) record since the 17th century is just an internal variability of the climate system. However, these authors compared the climatic patterns against the solar model proposed by Wang et al. [70] and ignored all other proposed solar models available to date [3,44,72,73,[84][85][86]. Indeed, CET, as well as other climatic records, present a close correlation and spectral coherence from the interannual to the millennial scales with specific solar models [2][3][4][5]19,21,23,42,43,[71][72][73]82,83,[87][88][89][90]: see, for example, Figures 4-6 in Scafetta [73] and Vahrenholt and Lüning [91]. ...
... Indeed, long paleoclimatic records have revealed the existence of a 50-70 year oscillation lasting for centuries and millennia that continues in the AMO oscillation observed in the 20th century [42,45,51,54,[95][96][97][98][99][100]. Other climatic oscillations lasting throughout the Holocene have been found also at periods of about 10 years [101], 20 years [102], 115 years [54,72,103], the DeVries/Suess cycle (~210 years) [85,104], the Eddy cycle (~1000 years) [2,4,72,105,106], and the Bray-Hallstatt cycle (~2320 years) [84,85]. Similar oscillations are typically found among proxy records of solar activity [2][3][4]41,72,85,87,107]. Scafetta [85] has recently demonstrated that all main multidecadal and millennial oscillations common to both climatic and solar records derive from a restricted set of astronomical resonances (labeled the invariant inequalities of the solar system) which are made of the synodic cycles among Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune and of their mutual beats. ...
... For the probable physical origin of the oscillations see Refs. [84][85][86]106]. ...
Climate changes are due to anthropogenic factors, volcano eruptions and the natural variability of the Earth’s system. Herein the natural variability of the global surface temperature is modeled using a set of harmonics spanning from the inter-annual to the millennial scales. The model is supported by the following considerations: (1) power spectrum evaluations show 11 spectral peaks (from the sub-decadal to the multi-decadal scales) above the 99% confidence level of the known temperature uncertainty; (2) spectral coherence analysis between the independent global surface temperature periods 1861–1937 and 1937–2013 highlights at least eight common frequencies between 2- and 20-year periods; (3) paleoclimatic temperature reconstructions during the Holocene present secular to millennial oscillations. The millennial oscillation was responsible for the cooling observed from the Medieval Warm Period (900–1400) to the Little Ice Age (1400–1800) and, on average, could have caused about 50% of the warming observed since 1850. The finding implies an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.0–2.3 °C for CO2 doubling likely centered around 1.5 °C. This low sensitivity to radiative forcing agrees with the conclusions of recent studies. Semi-empirical models since 1000 A.D. are developed using 13 identified harmonics (representing the natural variability of the climate system) and a climatic function derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble mean simulation (representing the mean greenhouse gas—GHG, aerosol, and volcano temperature contributions) scaled under the assumption of an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.5 °C. The harmonic model is evaluated using temperature data from 1850 to 2013 to test its ability to predict the major temperature patterns observed in the record from 2014 to 2020. In the short, medium, and long time scales the semi-empirical models predict: (1) temperature maxima in 2015–2016 and 2020, which is confirmed by the 2014–2020 global temperature record; (2) a relatively steady global temperature from 2000 to 2030–2040; (3) a 2000–2100 mean projected global warming of about 1 °C. The semi-empirical model reconstructs accurately the historical surface temperature record since 1850 and hindcasts mean surface temperature proxy reconstructions since the medieval period better than the model simulation that is unable to simulate the Medieval Warm Period.
... Tidal-torquing models Wilson, 2013) and tidal-synchronization models (Stefani et al., 2016;Stefani, Giesecke, and Weier, 2019) were also proposed. The alternative hypothesis is that planetary gravitational configurations modulate some kind of matter flux within the solar system that triggers solar activity (cf.: Scafetta and Willson, 2013b;Scafetta et al., 2016). A planetary conjunctions or alignment along the curve of the Parker spiral could have enhancing effects too (Tattersall, 2013). ...
... In fact, the orbit of the Earth is still a nearly stable ellipse with the Sun at one of its foci, as first noted by Kepler, because the gravitational forces of the Jovian planets attracting the Sun act also on the Earth and the other inner planets making them all to wobble almost in synchrony. Yet, the SIM model could still have a physical meaning as it describes the pulsing dynamics of the heliosphere relative to the Jovian planets and to the outer galactic space, as first noted in Charvátová (2000) and later developed in Scafetta et al. (2016). For example, if, as hypothesize by Bertolucci et al. (2017), solar activity is triggered by some kind of matter streaming from the deep-space towards the Sun, then, relative to our star, such an external flux would be expected to be modulated by the SIM motion. ...
... Similar results have been found by others (e.g.: Steinhilber et al., 2012;Kerr, 2001;Bond et al., 2001). Advanced cross-spectral analyses have also confirmed the statistical significance of common frequencies between climatic and planetary harmonics between 5 and 100 years (Scafetta, 2010(Scafetta, , 2018Scafetta et al., 2016). The claim that solar variations are just statistical noise and the pattern observed in their spectrum are accidental, also does not explain how they could have been predicted using specific models based on planetary harmonics (e.g.: Salvador, 2013;Scafetta, 2012aScafetta, , 2014a. ...
Gravitational planetary lensing of slow-moving matter streaming towards the Sun was suggested to explain puzzling solar-flare occurrences and other unexplained solar-emission phenomena (Bertolucci et al. in Phys. Dark Universe17, 13, 2017). If it is actually so, the effect of gravitational lensing of this stream by heavy planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune) could be manifested in solar activity changes on longer time scales too where solar records present specific oscillations known in the literature as the cycles of Bray–Hallstatt (2100–2500 yr), Eddy (800–1200 yr), Suess–de Vries (200–250 yr), Jose (155–185 yr), Gleissberg (80–100 year), the 55–65 yr spectral cluster and others. It is herein hypothesized that these oscillations emerge from specific periodic planetary orbital configurations that generate particular waves in the force-fields of the heliosphere which could be able to synchronize solar activity. These harmonics are defined by a subset of orbital frequencies herein labeled as “orbital invariant inequalities” of the solar system that derive from the synodical periods among the Jovian planets. Thus, they are associated with the repeating pattern of planetary alignment relative to the Sun when tidal forcing, interplanetary magnetic couplings and planetary lensing effects could be enhanced. These frequencies are physically relevant also because they are invariant relative to any spinning system centered on the Sun and, therefore, they and their combinations should characterize the spectrum of any forcing able to externally synchronizing the internal dynamics of the solar dynamo. Herein the orbital invariant inequalities of the solar system are determined and are demonstrated to cluster around specific spectral bands that exactly correspond to the above spectrum of solar activity. In particular, the orbital invariant inequality model is shown to predict, both in frequency and phase, the Bray–Hallstatt cycle (2100–2500 yr) found in \(\Delta ^{14}C\) and in climate records throughout the Holocene. The result suggests that some kind of planetary forcing is synchronizing solar internal dynamics.
... In solar physics, similar variations with time scales of 1-3 kyr are usually discussed under the notion Eddy cycle and Hallstadt cycle Abreu et al., 2012;Soon et al., 2014;Scafetta et al., 2016;Usoskin et al., 2016). Yet, some caution seems to be appropriate when stretching the very concept of "cycles" from the decadal (Schwabe, Hale) to the millennial time scale, in particular when the underlying 14 C and 10 Be data bases have typical durations of only 10 kyr, or just slightly longer (Kudryavtsev and Dergachev, 2020). ...
... As longer-term cycles are concerned, it was recently confirmed (Stefani et al., 2020a) that the modulation period of the duration of the Schwabe cycles, as inferred from Schove's maxima data (Schove, 1983), is close to 200 years, a number which is consistent with previous results for the Suess-de Vries cycle relying on historic sunspot observations (Ma and Vaquero, 2020), 10 Be and 14 C data (Muscheler et al., 2007), and various climate related data (Lüdecke, Weiss and Hempelmann, 2015). It was not least the relative sharpness of that Suess-de Vries cycle which had motivated many authors (Jose, 1965;Fairbridge and Shirley, 1987;Charvatova, 1997;Landscheidt, 1999;Abreu et al., 2012;Wolff and Patrone, 2010;McCracken, Beer and Steinhilber, 2014;Cionco and Soon, 2015;Scafetta et al., 2016) to search for a link between the solar dynamo and planetary forcings with correspondingly long periods. ...
We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess–de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can all be explained by combined synchronization with the 11.07-year periodic tidal forcing of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-year periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. We present model simulations where grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales, very similar to the series of Bond events which were observed throughout the Holocene and the last glacial period. If confirmed, such an intermittent transition to chaos would prevent any long-term prediction of solar activity, notwithstanding the fact that the shorter-term Hale and Suess–de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion.
... Dansgaard et al., 1984;O'Brien et al., 1995), from the Aegean Sea in the Eastern Mediterranean and was also reported from the Corchia Cave over the last 13 kyr (Tognarelli et al., 2018). This frequency appears to be related to solar activity and known as the Hallstatt cycle (Hood and Jirikowic, 1990;Dergachev and Chistyakov, 1995;Schatten and Hoyt, 1997;Scafetta et al., 2016) deriving probably from the quasi-rhythmic pattern in the periodic revolution of the planets around the Sun (Scafetta et al., 2016). By modulating the cosmic rays reaching the Earth, it influences the climate and Earth's albedo through the formation of clouds (e.g. ...
... By modulating the cosmic rays reaching the Earth, it influences the climate and Earth's albedo through the formation of clouds (e.g. Svensmark et al., 2009Svensmark et al., , 2012Scafetta et al., 2016). ...
The sedimentary archives of the Mediterranean Sea record periodic deposits of organic-rich deposits, called sapropels in the eastern basin and organic-rich layers (ORL) in the western basin. Changes in both the Mediterranean circulation and inputs of fresh water through borderlands rivers under more humid climate, are important mechanisms to explain those events. The last ORL and sapropel S1 have different timing, respectively from ~14.5 to 9 Ka and from ~10 to 6 Ka, presumably due to different forcing factors in the western basin (i.e., melting of Alps ices). Here we present a high-resolution study of a marine sediment core located off the mouth of the Var River, one of the most dynamic river system of the northern borderland of the western Mediterranean Sea. We applied a multi-proxy approach based on benthic foraminiferal assemblages, foraminiferal δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C, grain size analyses, organic carbon content and XRF elemental data to decipher the regional climate signals from the basin-scale intermediate circulation signature. Our results do not show large river inputs at the timing of the last ORL deposit. On the opposite, foraminiferal and geochemical evidence indicate that the 11–6 kyr period, concomitant to Sapropel S1 event in the Eastern Mediterranean, was characterised by high river activity and low ventilated bottom waters at the studied location. Additionally, our results characterized the last 6 ka with large scale episodes of more active bottom water ventilation due perhaps to enhanced wind activity under an overall cooler climate.
Time series analyses were computed from stable isotopes, Ca/Ti XRF ratio and foraminifera abundances. They show common frequencies peaks (2.2–3, 1.1–1.2, 0.9–1.0, and 0.4–0.5 kyr) most likely related to the solar activity. Also, a specific frequency band (1.5–1.6 kyr) was only recorded in benthic foraminiferal abundance and stable isotopic records. This was preferentially attributed to an oceanic-driven internal forcing.
... The duration of lag order increments in Figure 10b is approximately 184 y, and the three periodicities shown therefore correspond on average to repetition periods of 350, 955, and 2489 y, respectively. These three periodicities are congruent within likely error limits with the previously-identified repetition period of the ACO of 271 y over the time period 21-9 Kyb1950 [11], the Antarctic Isotope Maximum (AIM) cycle [11] of approximately 1000 y over this time period, which is coupled with the Bond Cycle in the NH [55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63], and the solar Hallstatt (Bray) cycle of 2400 ± 200 y [64][65][66]. These findings suggest possible non-random cyclic modulation of latency by exogenous variables. ...
... The upstream autocorrelation also shows the longer period estimated here as 2432 y, which is within the error variance of the Hallstatt solar cycle of 2400 ± 200 y [64,65]. This cycle has been reinterpreted recently as caused by systematic oscillation of the planetary mass center of the solar system [66]. These estimates are again only suggestive, but the autocorrelation analysis nonetheless hints at cyclic influences on both downstream and upstream latency oscillating at approximately the same period. ...
The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO) is a paleoclimate temperature cycle that originates in the Southern Hemisphere, is the presumptive evolutionary precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and teleconnects to the Northern Hemisphere to influence global temperature. In this study we investigate the internal climate dynamics of the ACO over the last 21 millennia using stable water isotopes frozen in ice cores from 11 Antarctic drill sites as temperature proxies. Spectral and time series analyses reveal that ACOs occurred at all 11 sites over all time periods evaluated, suggesting that the ACO encompasses all of Antarctica. From the Last Glacial Maximum through the Last Glacial Termination (LGT), ACO cycles propagated on a multicentennial time scale from the East Antarctic coastline clockwise around Antarctica in the streamline of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The velocity of teleconnection (VT) is correlated with the geophysical characteristics of drill sites, including distance from the ocean and temperature. During the LGT, the VT to coastal sites doubled while the VT to inland sites decreased fourfold, correlated with increasing solar insolation at 65°N. These results implicate two interdependent mechanisms of teleconnection, oceanic and atmospheric, and suggest possible physical mechanisms for each. During the warmer Holocene, ACOs arrived synchronously at all drill sites examined, suggesting that the VT increased with temperature. Backward extrapolation of ACO propagation direction and velocity places its estimated geographic origin in the Southern Ocean east of Antarctica, in the region of the strongest sustained surface wind stress over any body of ocean water on Earth. ACO period is correlated with all major cycle parameters except cycle symmetry, consistent with a forced, undamped oscillation in which the driving energy affects all major cycle metrics. Cycle period and symmetry are not discernibly different for the ACO and AAO over the same time periods, suggesting that they are the same climate cycle. We postulate that the ACO/AAO is generated by relaxation oscillation of Westerly Wind velocity forced by the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and propagated regionally by identified air-sea-ice interactions.
... Again, velocities of that scale could definitely be dynamo relevant, remembering a similar scale of 10 m/s for the meridional circulation [1]. Somewhat related to the distinction between tidal versus spin-orbit models, planetary forcing models can further be classified into models of hard synchronization of the basic Schwabe cycle (e.g., with the 11.07-year spring tide period of the tidally dominant Venus-Earth-Jupiter system [6,14,[16][17][18], partly in combination with a gear effect [15]) and models of soft modulations of this Schwabe cycle, with main focus on the Gleissberg, Suess-de Vries and Hallstatt cycle [19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][28]. ...
... We have seen that the period of the dominant Suess-de Vries cycle as inferred from Schove's maxima data is very close to 200 years, which is highly consistent with previous results based on 10 Be and 14 C data [43], and various climate related data [38]. The robustness and relative sharpness of that peak suggests a link to planetary forcings with equal or similar periods, as discussed by many authors [19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][28]. Another explanation, which also brings us close to the 200 years cycle, relies on the beat period of 193 years [15,29] that arises from the interplay of the 22.14-year Hale cycle and the 19.86-year synodic cycle of Jupiter and Saturn (which produces, according to Fig. 3, the dominant component of the solar motion around the SSB). ...
Aiming at a consistent planetary synchronization model of both short-term and long-term solar cycles, we start with an analysis of Schove's historical data of cycle maxima. Their deviations (residuals) from the average cycle duration of 11.07 years show a high degree of regularity, comprising a dominant 200-year period (Suess-de Vries cycle), and a few periods around 100 years (Gleissberg cycle). Encouraged by their robustness, we support previous forecasts of an upcoming grand minimum in the 21st century. To explain the long-term cycles, we enhance our tidally synchronized solar dynamo model by a modulation of the field storage capacity of the tachocline with the orbital angular momentum of the Sun, which is dominated by the 19.86-year periodicity of the Jupiter-Saturn synodes. This modulation of the 22.14 years Hale cycle leads to a 193-year beat period of dynamo activity which is indeed close to the Suess-de Vries cycle. For stronger dynamo modulation, the model produces additional peaks at typical Gleissberg frequencies, which seem to be explainable by the non-linearities of the basic beat process, leading to a bi-modality of the Schwabe cycle. However, a complementary role of beat periods between the Schwabe cycle and the Jupiter-Uranus/Neptune synodic cycles cannot be completely excluded.
... The multi-decadal to millennial solar activity oscillations could be interpreted and reconstructed by using also the astronomical resonances of the solar system. In fact, they appear to drive and synchronize the main solar oscillations [54][55][56]. More specifically, a TSI peak in the 1940s, its following decrease until around 1970 and again its increase from 1970 to 2000 and decrease afterward (cf. Figure 13) would be part of a 60-year oscillation. ...
... This is one of the typical oscillations commonly observed in climate ( [20,21,57]; and references therein) and solar records [58][59][60] based on actual observations. Scafetta's [54] harmonic solar model predicted several decadal to millennial solar and climate oscillations throughout the entire Holocene and even during the Marine Interglacial Stage 9.3 that occurred 325-336 kyear ago [56,61]. According to this interpretation, the 2000-2002 TSI peak was caused by the maximum of the gravitational pull of Jupiter and Saturn on the sun that reached its 60-year cycle maximum around 2000. ...
A continuous record of direct total solar irradiance (TSI) observations began with a series of satellite experiments in 1978. This record requires comparisons of overlapping satellite observations with adequate relative precisions to provide useful long term TSI trend information. Herein we briefly review the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor physikalisch-meteorologisches observatorium davos (ACRIM-PMOD) TSI composite controversy regarding how the total solar irradiance (TSI) has evolved since 1978 and about whether TSI significantly increased or slightly decreased from 1980 to 2000. The main question is whether TSI increased or decreased during the so-called ACRIM-gap period from 1989 to 1992. There is significant discrepancy between TSI proxy models and observations before and after the gap, which requires a careful revisit of the data analysis and modeling performed during the ACRIM-gap period. In this study, we use three recently proposed TSI proxy models that do not present any TSI increase during the ACRIM-gap, and show that they agree with the TSI data only from 1996 to 2016. However, these same models significantly diverge from the observations from 1981 and 1996. Thus, the scaling errors must be different between the two periods, which suggests errors in these models. By adjusting the TSI proxy models to agree with the data patterns before and after the ACRIM-gap, we found that these models miss a slowly varying TSI component. The adjusted models suggest that the quiet solar luminosity increased from the 1986 to the 1996 TSI minimum by about 0.45 W/m 2 reaching a peak near 2000 and decreased by about 0.15 W/m 2 from the 1996 to the 2008 TSI cycle minimum. This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.
... In solar physics, similar variations with time scales of 1-3 kyears are usually discussed under the notion Eddy cycle and Hallstadt cycle Abreu et al., 2012;Soon et al., 2014;Scafetta et al., 2016;Usoskin et al., 2016). Yet, some caution seems to be appropriate when stretching the very concept of "cycles" from the decadal (Schwabe, Hale) to the millennial time scale, in particular when the underlying 14 C and 10 Be data bases have typical durations of only 10 kyears, or just slightly longer (Kudryavtsev and Dergachev, 2020). ...
... As longer-term cycles are concerned, it was recently confirmed (Stefani et al., 2020a) that the modulation period of the duration of the Schwabe cycles, as inferred from Schove's maxima data (Schove, 1983), is close to 200 years, a number which is consistent with previous results for the Suess-de Vries cycle relying on historic sunspot observations (Ma and Vaquero, 2020), 10 Be and 14 C data (Muscheler et al., 2007), and various climate related data (Lüdecke, Weiss and Hempelmann, 2015). It was not least the relative sharpness of that Suessde Vries cycle which had motivated many authors (Jose, 1965;Fairbridge and Shirley, 1987;Charvatova, 1997;Landscheidt, 1999;Abreu et al., 2012;Wolff and Patrone, 2010;McCracken, Beer and Steinhilber, 2014;Cionco and Soon, 2015;Scafetta et al., 2016) to search for a link of the solar dynamo to planetary forcings with correspondingly long periods. ...
We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess-de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can be self-consistently explained by double synchronization with the 11.07-years periodic tidal forcing of the Venus-Earth-Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-years periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. In our numerical simulation, grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales, very similar to the series of Bond events which were observed throughout the Holocene and the last glacial period. If confirmed, such an intermittent transition to chaos would prevent any long-term prediction of solar activity, notwithstanding the fact that the shorter-term Hale and Suess-de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion.
... It was shown that solar minima correlate with more negative d 18 O values in the Greenland ice record on the centennial timescale (150e500 yr) suggesting the existence of strong solar forcing on the climate between 22.9 and 14.7 ka (Adolphi et al., 2014). Thẽ 2300e2500 yr cycle in the Holocene appears to be the Hallstatt cycle related to the solar activity variations (Usoskin et al., 2007) or to a major resonance involving the movements of the four Jovian planets that changes the cosmic ray and dust densities in the inner region of the solar system modulating the radionucleotide production and influencing climate through a cloud modulation (Scafetta et al., 2016). ...
A lack of adequate high resolution climate proxy records for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has prevented the extrapolation of climate–solar linkages on centennial time scales prior of the Holocene. Therefore, it is still unknown whether centennial climate variations of the last ten thousand years convey a universal climate change or merely represent a characteristic of the Holocene. Recently published high resolution climate proxy records for the LGM allowed us to extrapolate climate–solar linkages on centennial time scales ahead of the Holocene. Here we present the analysis of a high resolution pollen concentration record from Lake Kotokel in southern Siberia, Russia, during the LGM. The record reflects the dynamics of vegetation zones and temperature change with a resolution of ∼40 years in the continental climate of north-eastern Asia. We demonstrate that our pollen concentration record, the oxygen isotope δ¹⁸O record from the Greenland ice core project NGRIP (NorthGRIP), the dust-fall contributions in Lake Qinghai, China, grain size in the Gulang and Jingyuan loess deposits, China, and the composite oxygen isotope δ¹⁸O record from the Alpine cave system 7H reveal cooler to warmer climate fluctuations between ∼ 20.6 and 26 ka. Such fluctuations correspond to the ∼1000-yr, 500-600-yr and 210-250-yr cycles possibly linked to the solar activity variations and recognized in high resolution Holocene proxies all over the world. We further show that climate fluctuations in the LGM and Holocene are spectrally similar suggesting that linkages between climate proxies and solar activity at the centennial time scale in the Holocene can be extended to the LGM.
... These cycles, which are identified in various Holocene records (e.g. Rimbu et al., 2004), characterize also solar activity 270 and are referred to as the Hallstatt and Eddy cycle, respectively and could have an astronomical origin (Scafetta et al., 2016). The enhanced blocking activity during low solar activity over eastern Europe, which play an important role in increasing the wave breaking activity and extreme precipitation in the Alpine region (Barton et al., 2016), could, therefore, be mechanistically associated with lower solar activity. ...
We investigate the relationship between the variability in the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and temperature/precipitation extremes over Europe using observational River Ammer discharge data back to 1926 and the 5500-year-long flood layer record from varved Lake Ammersee sediments. We show that observed River Ammer flood frequency variability is not only related with local extreme precipitation, but also with large-scale temperature extreme anomalies. Less (more) extreme high temperatures over central and western (northeastern) Europe are recorded during periods of increased River Ammer flood frequency. We argue that changing radiative forcing due to cloudiness anomaly patterns associated with River Ammer floods induce these extreme temperature anomalies. Consistent patterns are obtained using observed discharge and proxy flood layer frequency data. Furthermore, a higher frequency of observed River Ammer floods and flood layers is associated with enhanced blocking activity over northeastern Europe. A blocking high over this region increases the probability of wave breaking and associated heavy precipitation over western Europe. A similar blocking pattern is associated with periods of reduced solar activity. Consequently, solar modulated changes in blocking frequency over northeastern Europe could explain the connection between River Ammer floods and solar activity, as also identified in previous studies. We argue that multi-decadal to millennial flood frequency variations in the Mid- to Late Holocene flood layer record from Lake Ammersee characterizes also the extreme temperatures in northeastern Europe.
... Interested readers can find my past rebuttals in Scafetta (2014Scafetta ( , 2016. A latest general review on the topic of an astronomical origin of climate oscillations throughout the Holocene is found in Scafetta et al. (2016) and in its references. ...
Holm (ASR, 2018) claims that Scafetta (ASR 57, 2121–2135, 2016) is “irreproducible” because I would have left “undocumented” the values of two parameters (a reduced-rank index p and a regularization term δ) that he claimed to be requested in the Magnitude Squared Coherence Canonical Correlation Analysis (MSC-CCA). Yet, my analysis did not require such two parameters. In fact: (1) using the MSC-CCA reduced-rank option neither changes the result nor was needed since Scafetta (2016) statistically evaluated the significance of the coherence spectral peaks; (2) the analysis algorithm neither contains nor needed the regularization term δ. Herein I show that Holm could not replicate Scafetta (2016) because he used different analysis algorithms. In fact, although Holm claimed to be using MSC-CCA, for his Figs. 2–4 he used a MatLab code labeled “gcs_cca_1D.m” (see paragraph 2 of his Section 3), which Holm also modified, that implements a different methodology known as the Generalized Coherence Spectrum using the Canonical Correlation Analysis (GCS-CCA). This code is herein demonstrated to be unreliable under specific statistical circumstances such as those required to replicate Scafetta (2016). On the contrary, the MSC-CCA method is stable and reliable. Moreover, Holm could not replicate my result also in his Fig. 5 because there he used the basic Welch MSC algorithm by erroneously equating it to MSC-CCA. Herein I clarify step-by-step how to proceed with the correct analysis, and I fully confirm the 95% significance of my results. I add data and codes to easily replicate my results.
... In contrast to the idea of a hard synchronization of the basic Hale cycle with planetary tidal forces, as pursued in this paper, much more interest is commonly devoted to the possibility of a soft modulation of the solar activity, with particular focus on the Gleissberg, Suess-de Vries, Hallstadt, and Eddy cycles (Jose, 1965;Charvatova, 1997;Abreu et al., 2012;Wolff and Patrone, 2010;Scafetta, 2010Scafetta, , 2014McCracken, Beer, and Steinhilber, 2014;Cionco and Soon, 2015;Scafetta et al., 2016). While far from being settled (see, e.g., Cameron and Schüssler, 2014 for a critical assessment), any such planetary influence could have enormous consequences for the predictability not only of the solar dynamo but, possibly, of the terrestrial climate, too (Hoyt and Schatten, 1997;Gray et al., 2010;Solanki, Krilova, and Haigh, 2013;Scafetta, 2013;Ruzmaikin and Feynman, 2015;Soon et al., 2014). ...
We discuss a solar dynamo model of the Tayler-Spruit type whose Omega-effect is traditionally produced by a solar-like differential rotation but whose alpha-effect is assumed to be periodically modulated by planetary tidal forcing. This resonance-like effect has its rationale in the tendency of the current-driven Tayler instability to undergo intrinsic helicity oscillations which, in turn, can be synchronized by periodic tidal perturbations. Specifically, we focus on the 11.07 years periodicity of the alignment of the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth, and Jupiter. In the framework of a simple one-dimensional numerical model we prove the subcritical nature of this Tayler-Spruit type dynamo. The typically emerging dynamo modes are dipolar fields, oscillating with a 22.14 years period, but also quadrupolar fields pulsating with a 11.07 years period. Transitions between these field topologies are reminiscent of the observed behaviour during the Maunder minimum. Further interesting features of the model are the emergence of mid-term fluctuations, with periods in the order of one year, and the intermittent appearance of reversed helicities in both hemispheres. With minor model modifications, the correct direction of the butterfly diagram comes out as a robust feature, too.
... While such a "hard" synchronization of the basic Hale cycle with planetary tidal forces was advocated by only a few researchers, much more interest was dedicated to various kinds of "soft" planetary modulation of that cycle (whose length is usually believed to be determined by intrinsic solar parameters (Charbonneau, 2010;Cameron and Schüssler, 2017)). Intriguing connections have been found between various periodicities of the solar magnetic field (Suess-de Vries, Hallstadt, Eddy, etc.) and corresponding planetary constellations (Jose, 1965;Charvatova, 1997;Abreu et al., 2012;Wolff and Patrone, 2010;Scafetta, 2010Scafetta, , 2014McCracken, Beer and Steinhilber, 2014;Cionco and Soon, 2015;Scafetta et al., 2016). As an example, Abreu et al. (2012) had revealed synchronized cycles in proxies of the solar activity and the planetary torques, with periodicities that remain phase-locked over 9400 years. ...
The solar cycle appears to be remarkably synchronized with the gravitational torques exerted by the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth and Jupiter. Recently, a possible synchronization mechanism was proposed that relies on the intrinsic helicity oscillation of the current-driven Tayler instability which can be stoked by tidal-like perturbations with a period of 11.07 years. Inserted into a simple alpha-Omega dynamo model these resonantly excited helicity oscillations lead to a 22.14 years dynamo cycle. Here, we assess various alternative mechanisms of synchronization. Specifically we study a simple time-delay model of Babcock-Leighton type dynamos and ask whether periodic changes of either the minimal amplitude for rising toroidal flux tubes or the Omega effect could eventually lead to synchronization. In contrast to the easy and robust synchronizability of Tayler-Spruit dynamo models, our answer for those Babcock-Leighton type models is less propitious.
... It has been suggested that non-radiative physical processes connected with solar activity and the "resonant" orbital motions of the moon and the planets can cast light on the otherwise incomprehensible temperature fluctuations [34,35]. In fact, the magnetic activity of the sun and, probably, also the planetary motions modulate both the solar wind and the flux of the cosmic rays and interstellar dust on the earth with the result of a modulation of the clouds coverage. ...
During the whole history of the planet, astronomical factors (orbital and solar variability) have determined the energy balance of the Earth and generated natural climate oscillations affecting the life of plants, animals and human beings at all time scales. During the last decades, severe concerns have been raised about whether human activities could have been so influential as to deeply modify the natural variability of the global climate and, in particular, could have caused a significant warming since the beginning of the 20th century. To properly address the latter issue, it is required to understand the phenomenology of the natural climate fluctuations. These are well emphasized by several climate indexes such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and others. This complex natural dynamic is still not reproduced by the general circulation models (GCMs) supporting the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory (AGWT), which is mainly advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this “part 1” of our work we briefly introduce the general topic and statistically compare observed and GCM modeled global surface warming trends from 1860 to 2016. We find that the models have significantly overestimated the observed warming during the historical record. In addition, we compare observed and modeled temperature trends of three significant periods: from Jan/1922 to Dec/1941, from Jan/1980 to Dec/1999 and from Jan/2000 to Dec/2016. We find that only during the 1980-1999 period the observed and synthetic records show compatible warming trends within the 95% confidence level. The severe discrepancy between observations and modeled predictions found during the 1922-1941 and 2000-2016 periods further confirms, according to the criteria proposed by the AGWT advocates themselves, that the current climate models have significantly exaggerated the anthropogenic greenhouse warming effect.
... At the decadal to the millennial scales these oscillations have periods of: 9.1 year, which is a likely solarlunar tidal cycle; 10-11 year, which is the 11-year solar cycle that has been on average about 10.5 year during the 20 th century; quasi 20-year and 60-year oscillations, which are related to the major solar system oscillations due to the movement of Jupiter and Saturn; quasi 115-year and 980-year, which are related to specific major beats between planetary and solar oscillations. Other oscillations are likely relevant [23,24,25], but where not included yet in these models. ...
The period from 2000 to 2016 shows a modest warming trend that the advocates of the anthropogenic global warming theory have labeled as the "pause" or “hiatus.” These labels were chosen to indicate that the observed temperature standstill period results from an unforced internal fluctuation of the climate (e.g. by heat uptake of the deep ocean) that the computer climate models are claimed to occasionally reproduce without contradicting the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGWT) paradigm. In part 1 of this work, it was shown that the statistical analysis rejects such labels with a 95% confidence because the standstill period has lasted more than the 15 year period limit provided by the AGWT advocates themselves. Anyhow, the strong warming peak observed in 2015-2016, the "hottest year on record," gave the impression that the temperature standstill stopped in 2014. Herein, the authors show that such a temperature peak is unrelated to anthropogenic forcing: it simply emerged from the natural fast fluctuations of the climate associated to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. By removing the ENSO signature, the authors show that the temperature trend from 2000 to 2016 clearly diverges from the general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Thus, the GCMs models used to support the AGWT are very likely flawed. By contrast, the semi-empirical climate models proposed in 2011 and 2013 by Scafetta, which are based on a specific set of natural climatic oscillations believed to be astronomically induced plus a significantly reduced anthropogenic contribution, agree far better with the latest observations.
... The presence of this periodicity in both solar activity and palaeoclimate proxy records has led to the suggestion that cyclical changes in solar insolation may be a contributing influence on millennial-scale climate variation in south-east Australia (McGowan et al., 2010) as well as a broad range of climatic regimes globally (e.g. Damon and Jirikowic, 1992;Engels and van Geel, 2012;Scafetta et al., 2016;Soon et al., 2014;Steinhilber et al., 2009;van Bree et al., 2014). A potential causal relationship between small changes in solar irradiance and global climate remains elusive for the Holocene (Haigh, 2007;Versteegh, 2005), and this uncertainty is amplified considering the only record of cosmogenic 14 C production that extends beyond the Holocene does not preserve any significant periodicity (Hughen et al., 2006). ...
Global climate variability during the late Quaternary is commonly investigated within the framework of the ‘bipolar seesaw’ pattern of asynchronous temperature variations in the northern and southern polar latitudes. The terrestrial hydrological response to this pattern in south-eastern Australia is not fully understood, as continuous, high-resolution, well-dated proxy records for the hydrological cycle in the region are sparse. Here we present a well-dated, highly resolved record of moisture balance spanning 30000–10000 calendar years before present (30–10 ka BP), based on x-ray fluorescence and organic carbon isotope (δ¹³COM) measurements of a sedimentary sequence from Lake Surprise in south-eastern Australia. The data provide a locally coherent record of the hydrological cycle. Elevated Si (reflecting windblown quartz and clays), and relatively high δ¹³COM indicate an extended period of relative aridity between 28 and 18.5 ka BP, interrupted by millennial-scale episodes of decreased Si and δ¹³COM, suggesting increased moisture balance. This was followed by a rapid deglacial shift to low Si and δ¹³COM at 18.5 ka BP, indicative of wetter conditions. We find that these changes are coeval with other records from south-eastern Australia and New Zealand, and use a Monte Carlo Empirical Orthogonal Function approach to extract a common trend from three high-resolution records. Our analyses suggest that drivers of the regional hydrological cycle have varied on multi-millennial time scales, in response to major shifts in global atmosphere-ocean dynamics during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Southern Ocean processes were the dominant control on hydroclimate during glacial times, via a strong influence of cold sea surface temperatures on moisture uptake and delivery onshore. Following the last deglaciation (around 18 ka BP), the southward migration of cold Southern Ocean fronts likely resulted in the establishment of conditions more like those of the present day. Millennial-scale variability in records from the region is dominated by a persistent ca. 2300-year periodicity, consistent with other records across the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes; however, this pervasive periodicity is not obviously linked to the ‘bipolar seesaw’ and the mechanism remains equivocal.
... McCracken (2014) and Wilson et al. (2008) found that solar activity is related to the movement of the planetary system. Charvátová (1990), Charvátová and Střeštík (2007), Scafetta et al. (2016), and Yndestad and Solheim (2017) studied the relation between the movement of the Sun and solar activity. Jager and Versteegh (2005) also discussed the link between the movement of the planetary system and solar activity. ...
The relationship between the periodic movement of the planetary system
and its influence on solar activity is currently a serious topic in research.
The kinematic index of the planet juncture index has been developed to find
the track and variation of the Sun around the centroid of the solar system and
the periodicity of solar activity. In the present study, the kinematic index
of the planetary system's heliocentric longitude, developed based on the orbital
elements of planets in the solar system, and it is used to investigate the
periodic movement of the planetary system. The kinematic index of the planetary
system's heliocentric longitude and that of the planet juncture index are
simulated and analyzed. The numerical simulation of the two kinematic indexes
shows orderly orbits and disorderly orbits of 49.9 and 129.6 years,
respectively. Two orderly orbits or two disorderly orbits show a period
change rule of 179.5 years. The contrast analysis between the periodic
movement of the planetary system and the periodicity of solar activity shows that
the two phenomena exhibit a period change rule of 179.5 years. Moreover,
orderly orbits correspond to high periods of solar activity and disorderly
orbits correspond to low periods of solar activity. Therefore, the relative
movement of the planetary system affects solar activity to some extent. The
relationship provides a basis for discussing the movement of the planetary system
and solar activity.
... A major scientific conclusion is that the climate is significantly modulated by astronomical oscillation which may not be related to the solar luminosity variation. A possibility is that the cloud system could be directly modulated by the cosmic ray flux, which is modulated by the gravitational and electromagnetic oscillations of the heliosphere [4,13,26,32]. This eventuality suggests that the current climate models are not reliable because important climate forcings are still not used. ...
... A major scientific conclusion is that the climate is significantly modulated by astronomical oscillation which may not be related to the solar luminosity variation. A possibility is that the cloud system could be directly modulated by the cosmic ray flux, which is modulated by the gravitational and electromagnetic oscillations of the heliosphere [4,13,26,32]. This eventuality suggests that the current climate models are not reliable because important climate forcings are still not used. ...
Since 1850 the global surface temperature has warmed by about 0.9 oC. The CMIP5 computer climate models adopted by the IPCC have projected that the global surface temperature could rise by 2-5 oC from 2000 to 2100 for anthropogenic reasons. These projections are currently used to justify expensive mitigation policies to reduce the emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases such as CO2. However, recent scientific research has pointed out that the IPCC climate models fail to properly reconstruct the natural variability of the climate. Indeed, advanced techniques of analysis have revealed that the natural variability of the climate is made of several oscillations spanning from the decadal to the millennial scales (e.g. with periods of about 9.1, 10.4, 20, 60, 115, 1000 years and others). These oscillations likely have an astronomical origin. The same considerations yield to the conclusion that the IPCC climate models severely overestimate the anthropogenic climatic warming by about two times. Herein I demonstrate a number of failures of the IPCC models and I propose a semi-empirical climate model able to reconstruct the natural climatic variability since Medieval times. I show that this model projects a very moderate warming until 2040 and a warming less than 2 oC from 2000 to 2100 using the same anthropogenic emission scenarios used by the CMIP5 models. This result suggests that climatic adaptation policies, which are less expensive than the mitigation ones, could be sufficient to address most of the consequences of a climatic change during the 21st century. Finally, I show that a temperature forecast made in 2011 by Scafetta (Ref. 25) based on harmonic oscillations has well agreed with the global surface temperature data up to August 2016.
... The physical explanation of this periodicity may be found in the suggested pulsations of the solar tachocline, which affects the solar equatorial magnetic activity, 13 with a relatively small amplitude and with the Hallstatt period. If this interpretation of the solar driving model is indeed correct, then this physical explanation may find support in a study by Scafetta et al. 37 who ascribe the Hallstatt oscillation to the combined attraction by the major planets. We suggest that this attractive force influences the distance between the tachocline and the solar surface. ...
The emphasis of this study is on the solar aspects of the relation between the average terrestrial Northern Hemisphere ground temperature ΔT_ Earth and the total magnetic fluxes of both the equatorial and the polar fields of the sun, characterized by their proxies, viz. the maximum value per Schwabe cycle of the Group Sunspot Number (Gn_max) and the minimum value of the global antipodal magnetic amplitude activity index aa (aa_min). The former is known for the period 1610 (beginning of systematic sunspot observations) till present and the latter from 1844 (first aa determinations) till present. In order to eliminate the effects of short–term, mainly non–solar variations such as volcanos, el Niño, while also not putting too much emphasis on the Schwabe cycle, the variables are smoothed over 18 years.
The increasingly strong ‘global warming’ (commonly called the modern temperature increase) is statistically significant after around 1915. We estimate that the variations of the terrestrial temperature between 1844 and 1910 are 43% due to those in the solar equatorial magnetic fields and 32 % due to those in the polar fields, while the remaining 25% has another (non–solar?) origin. We expect that the period of solar activity that has recently started will be of the Regular type during the present millennium.
... An obvious next step is related to the question of whether longer periodicities of the solar dynamo, such as the 87-year Gleissberg cycle, the 210-year Suess-de-Vries cycle, and the 2300-year Hallstatt cycle [37,38,39,40,41,42], could also be explained in the framework of the synchronization model. The solution of this problem might have tremendous consequences, in particular, if any of the disputed mechanisms for connecting solar activity and terrestrial climate [43,44,45,46] could be validated. ...
The current-driven, kink-type Tayler instability (TI) is a key ingredient of the Tayler-Spruit dynamo model for the generation of stellar magnetic fields, but is also discussed as a mechanism that might hamper the up-scaling of liquid metal batteries. Under some circumstances, the TI involves a helical flow pattern which goes along with some alpha effect. Here we focus on the chiral symmetry breaking and the related impact on the alpha effect that would be needed to close the dynamo loop in the Tayler-Spruit model. For low magnetic Prandtl numbers, we observe intrinsic oscillations of the alpha effect. These oscillations serve then as the basis for a synchronized Tayler-Spruit dynamo model, which could possibly link the periodic tidal forces of planets with the oscillation periods of stellar dynamos.
... The Hallstatt cycle modulates the 11 yr (Schwabe) sunspot cycle (Damon and Jirikowic, 1992). Solar forcing is considered as related to the major stable resonance of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, which would modulate the amount of cosmic rays and dust falling on Earth (Scafetta et al., 2016) and would influence climate through wind stress and humidityaridity variations (Nederbragt and Thurow, 2005). The Hallstatt cycle has been identified in Holocene 14 C and 10 Be records, which are directly influenced by solar activity (Nederbragt and Thurow, 2005). ...
Sub-Milankovitch rhythmic features in sedimentary records have been reported from throughout geological time. However, their origin remains enigmatic, in particular during so-called greenhouse periods in Earth's history. To better understand such short-term climatic changes, we sampled two 3-m-thick intervals of early Devonian hemipelagic carbonate at 1 cm resolution in the Pod Barrandovem section (Czech Republic). Greenhouse conditions prevailed during early Devonian times, and the chosen resolution enables the detection of millennial-scale climate change as recorded by elemental abundances. We used a previously published astrochronology for the section to transform the studied series from the stratigraphic into the time domain. Spectral analysis of the time-calibrated log-transformed Ti records reveal obliquity and precession cycles, confirming the applied astrochronology. Additional spectral peaks with periods of 2.3-2.7, 6-8, and 10-12 k.y. appear in both records. Furthermore, a 1.5 k.y. periodicity, close to the Pleistocene Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillation, is also identified, but only in the record with higher accumulation rate (3.5 cm/k.y.). Bi-coherence spectra reveal that the 6-8 and 10-12 k.y. periodic components are combination tones of Milankovitch cycles. We infer the shorter 2.5 k.y. periodicity to be the result of solar forcing, related to the Hallstatt cycle. These new observations strengthen the case for an external origin of millennial-scale features.
... Both cycles were also found in the Solanki et al. (2004) solar irradiance reconstruction through a singular spectrum analysis (Dima and Lohmann, 2009). There are furthermore speculations that both cycles are of astronomical origin (Scafetta et al., 2016). Our analysis reveals that the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with flood frequency variability and low solar forcing are qualitatively the same for interannual to multidecadal timescales ( Figure S5). ...
The relationship between River Ammer flood frequency variability, extreme summer climate over Europe, and solar forcing is investigated. First, we used observational data to evaluate extreme weather and climate anomaly patterns associated with flood and solar forcing as well as the possible dynamical mechanisms behind them. Then, the annual resolution flood layer record from the Lake Ammer sediments is analyzed to evaluate millennial‐scale variability of floods and possible related extreme climate patterns back to 5500 years BP. A composite analysis reveals that observed River Ammer flood frequency variability at interannual to multidecadal time scales is connected to large scale extreme precipitation and temperature patterns. From a synoptic‐scale perspective, the extreme precipitation pattern associated with floods is related to an increase in the frequency of high upper‐level potential vorticity (PV) events over western Europe and a decrease over eastern Europe and western Russia. Increased (decreased) frequency of upper‐level high PV events are related to more (less) surface extreme precipitation occurrence. Furthermore, we show that increased frequency of upper‐level high PV events over western Europe is associated with enhanced blocking activity over eastern Europe. Therefore, the out of phase interannual to millennial‐scale variations of River Ammer flood frequency and solar irradiance, as presented in previous studies, can be explained by a solar modulation of eastern European‐western Russia summer blocking and associated upstream upper‐level wave breaking activity. In addition, we identify two distinct quasi‐periodic signals in both frequency of Lake Ammer flood layer and solar irradiance records with periods of ~900 years and ~2300 years. We argue that similar cycles should dominate millennial‐scale variations of blocking activity in eastern Europe‐western Russia as well as extreme precipitation and flood frequency variability over central and western Europe during the last ~5500 years.
... The multi- The green lines illustrate the phase shifts depicted by the cross-correlation analysis. Scafetta et al. (2016) proposed an astronomical origin for Hallstatt cycles. This periodicity is certainly related with a 2318 yrs orbital stable resonance impacting the solar magnetic activity and/or the structure of the heliosphere. ...
Les influences respectives de l’anthropisation et de la variabilité climatique sur l’histoire de la végétation méditerranéenne sont difficiles à différencier et peuvent être variables d’une région à une autre. Ce travail de recherche a pour objectif de mieux caractériser l’influence des populations humaines et de la variabilité climatique sur la mise en place des environnements du nord-ouest de la Méditerranée (i) en apportant une contribution inédite à l’étude de l’histoire de la végétation de cette région et (ii) en développant de nouveaux outils de traitement des données paléo-environnementales. Pour cela, deux nouvelles séquences polliniques à haute résolution temporelle situées dans le Languedoc (France) et dans la région de Murcie (Espagne) ont été acquises. Elles couvrent respectivement les 7800 et 6500 dernières années. Dans le Languedoc, la végétation est dominée par des taxons plutôt mésophiles pendant la majeure partie de la séquence, notamment le hêtre qui forme des forêts à basse latitude en zone méditerranéenne. Ce dernier régresse sous l’effet d’une aridification croissante du climat, combinée à des crises d’aridités centennales. D’un autre côté, la végétation sclérophylle méditerranéenne s’installe progressivement depuis le Néolithique en lien avec une anthropisation croissante. Dans la région de Murcie, l’impact du climat sur la végétation est plus équivoque, c’est l’impact de l’Homme qui est le plus nettement visible. Les formations arbusitives et pionnières montrent clairement des phases de développement et de régression reliées aux variations de l’anthropisation du territoire. D’autre part, un travail de calibration du signal pollinique par rapport à la végétation a été initié. Le modèle de transport des grains de pollen, REVEALS, a été adapté aux environnements de dépôts côtiers tels que ceux étudiés dans cette thèse. De plus, des données en vue de la quantification de la production pollinique de douze des principaux taxons méditerranéens ont été collectées et traitées. Pour finir, l’analyse spectrale de séries temporelles paléoclimatiques a permis de caractériser l’influence de l’activité solaire, de la circulation thermohaline atlantique et de la variabilité climatique tropicale sur le climat du nord-ouest de la Méditerranée. La variabilité spatiale du signal climatique à l’Holocène en Méditerranée a également été discutée grâce à une remise en contexte des résultats de cette thèse à l’échelle de l’ensemble du bassin Méditerranéen.
... (2) A model of solar variability driven by planetary tidal harmonics [49,50]. ...
We present a new analysis of the two-decade-old controversy over interpretation of satellite observations of total solar irradiance (TSI) since 1978 and the implications of our findings for TSI as a driver of climate change. Our approach compares the methods of constructing the two most commonly referenced TSI composites (ACRIM and PMOD) that relate successive observational databases and two others recently constructed using a novel statistical approach. Our primary focus is on the disparate decadal trending results of the ACRIM and PMOD TSI composite time series, namely, whether they indicate an increasing trend from 1980 to 2000 and a decreasing trend thereafter (ACRIM) or a continuously decreasing trend since 1980 (PMOD). Construction of the four-decade observational TSI composites from 1978 to the present requires the use of results from two less precise Earth Radiation Budget experiments (Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS/ERBE) during the so-called ACRIM-Gap (1989.5–1991.8), between the end of the ACRIM1 and the beginning of the ACRIM2 experiments. The ACRIM and PMOD composites used the ERB and ERBE results, respectively, to bridge the gap. The well-established paradigm of positive correlation between Solar Magnetic Field Strength (SMFS) and TSI supports the validity of the upward trend in the ERB results and the corresponding decadal upward trend of the ACRIM composite during solar cycles 21 and 22. The ERBE results have a sensor degradation caused downward gap trend, contrary to the SMFS/TSI paradigm, that biased the PMOD composite decadal trend downward during solar cycles 21 and 22. The different choice of gap bridging data is clearly the cause of the ACRIM and PMOD TSI trending difference, agreeing closely in both magnitude and direction. We also analyze two recently proposed statistical TSI composites. Unfortunately their methodology cannot account for the gap degradation of the ERBE experiment and their resulting uncertainties are too large to uniquely distinguish between the trending of the ACRIM and PMOD composites. Our analysis supports the ACRIM TSI increasing trend during the 1980 to 2000 period, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.
... We have reported two woodlined water wells discovered at the Liang'ercun site . Our preliminary work on radiocarbon dating suggests that the water wells were constructed during the late Western Zhou Dynasty (1046-771 BC) and abandoned by the end of the Eastern Zhou period (771-256 BC), but the precise timing of groundwater use was hindered by the Hallstatt radiocarbon plateau effect (Scafetta et al., 2016). Here we present more radiocarbon ages from these water wells. ...
The domestication of water played an important role in the emergence and development of settled societies. Although various features pertaining to groundwater use in the lower Yellow River area during the Neolithic and Bronze Age have been discovered, our knowledge about groundwater domestication in this area still remains fragmentary, due primarily to the large uncertainty in radiocarbon dating and calibration. For example, our previous attempt of radiocarbon dating of water well construction at an archaeological site situated on an alluvial fan was hindered by the Hallstatt radiocarbon plateau effect between 800 and 400 BC in the calibration curve, which also poses a great challenge to Bronze and early Iron Age archaeology elsewhere. Here we present more radiocarbon ages of charred millet grains from the primary fills of the water wells at this site and conduct age modeling using a hierarchical Bayesian model. Our results show that the wood lining technique in water well construction was first introduced to the lower Yellow River area sometime during 805–785 BC (68.2% credible interval). Groundwater use in this area may have lasted for about 240–380 years (68.2% credible interval). Comparing with proxy climate records suggests that the water wells may have been dug for securing drinking water when a cold and dry climate prevailed in the wake of the Bronze Age.
... Additionally, the temporal distribution and number of occurrences of the gypsum structures appear to match the 10 Be and 14 C oscillation that was termed as the Hallstatt cycle (e.g., Figure 4b). This oscillation was found in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene and suggested to be coherent to the major stable resonance of the four Jovian planets (Scafetta et al., 2016). ...
... Additionally, the temporal distribution and number of occurrences of the gypsum structures appear to match the 10 Be and 14 C oscillation that was termed as the Hallstatt cycle (e.g., Figure 4b). This oscillation was found in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene and suggested to be coherent to the major stable resonance of the four Jovian planets (Scafetta et al., 2016). ...
Unique gypsum structures: large capes (termed “gypsum deltas”) and small pitted gypsum mounds are exposed along the western shores of the currently retreating Dead Sea, the hypersaline terminal lake in the Dead Sea Basin. The gypsum deltas were formed during time intervals of low lake stands (∼420 ± 10 m below mean sea level), when sulfate‐rich Ca chloride brines discharged from the coastal aquifer via saline springs, mixed with the Dead Sea brine and precipitated the gypsum (outsalting process). The ages of formation of the gypsum structures coincide with times of North Atlantic cooling events and grand solar minima suggesting a direct impact of the latter on the Dead Sea hydrology and high sensitivity of the regional hydrology (controlling lake level) to global solar‐related events. The temporal occurrence and numbers of the gypsum structures appear to follow the Hallstatt Cycle that approaches minima at ∼3,000–2,000 years before present.
... Those two frequencies were also detected in the benthic records. We further record the 2400-year solar mode well known in Atlantic paleoclimatic records throughout the Holocene (e.g., Dansgaard et al., 1984;O'Brien et al., 1995) as the Hallstatt cycle (Dergachev & Chistyakov, 1995;Hood & Jirikowic, 1990;Hoyt & Schatten, 1997;Scafetta et al., 2016). This solar mode is also reported in the EM, from the planktic-based reconstructed sea surface temperatures of the Aegean Sea (Rohling, Mayewsk, et al., 2002). ...
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths. It is not possible to forecast the future, unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities. Evidence is presented specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60 ± year and, more importantly, 1000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors) that are so obvious in the temperature record. Data related to the solar climate driver are discussed and the solar cycle 22 low in the neutron count (high solar activity) in 1991 is identified as a solar activity millennial peak and correlated with the millennial peak – inversion point – in the RSS temperature trend in about 2004. The cyclic trends are projected forward and predict a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries. Estimates of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling are made. If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.
We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom–bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change.
The high-resolution Jet Propulsion Laboratory DE431 and DE432 planetary ephemeris are used to evaluate the instantaneous eccentricity functions of the orbits of the planets of the solar system from 13 000 BC to 17 000 AD at different time scales. Spectral analyses are performed to determine the frequencies and the amplitudes of the detected perturbations from 0.1-year to 10 000-year periods. Taken as contiguous pairs (Mercury-Venus, Earth-Mars, Jupiter-Saturn, and Uranus-Neptune), we found anti-phase patterns between contiguous planets at specific time scales (30 000 years): namely, the eccentricity of one planet increases while the other decreases. Venus and Earth instead appear in phase. However, on shorter time scales the phase coupling becomes more complex and irregular. Yet, Jupiter and Saturn present a π/2 phase coupling at the 1000-year scale. Periodogram analysis of the planetary eccentricity functions shows several fast fluctuations whose magnitudes indicate the strength of their mutual interactions where the Jovian planets significantly perturb the orbits of the inner planets. Besides, the wavelet power spectrum and wavelet squared coherence spectrum analyses are adopted to examine the relationships in time-frequency space between the eccentricity functions of each couple of terrestrial and Jovian planets. The analysis reveals the complexity and the evolution of the gravitational couplings perturbing each other planetary orbits. In some cases and for specific frequencies, this analysis technique also led to the discovery that the coherence phase can rotate clockwise or anticlockwise. The eccentricity function of the orbit of Jupiter presents large oscillations with periods of about 60 and 900- 960 years, mostly due to the interaction with Saturn. These oscillations also correspond to oscillations found in several geophysical records. The eccentricity functions of Uranus and Neptune are characterized by a large 4300-year oscillation. The eccentricity function of Pluto is characterized by a large nearly 20 000-year modulation.
Following the successful London climate conference of 2016, Professor Nils-Axel Mörner, Pamela Matlack-Klein and Maria da Assunção Araújo are organizing a high-level conference on The basic science of a changing climate at the Facultate de Letras (Humanities Faculty) in the University of Porto, Portugal, for two action-packed days – Friday 7 September and Saturday 8 September 2018.
The website for the conference is https://www.portoconference2018.org/.
We study the yearly values of the length of day (LOD, 1623–2016) and its link to the zonal index (ZI, 1873–2003), the Northern Atlantic oscillation index (NAO, 1659–2000) and the global sea surface temperature (SST, 1850–2016). LOD is herein assumed to be mostly the result of the overall circulations occurring within the ocean-atmospheric system. We find that LOD is negatively correlated with the global SST and with both the integral function of ZI and NAO, which are labeled as IZI and INAO. A first result is that LOD must be driven by a climatic change induced by an external (e.g. solar/astronomical) forcing since internal variability alone would have likely induced a positive correlation among the same variables because of the conservation of the Earth’s angular momentum. A second result is that the high correlation among the variables implies that the LOD and INAO records can be adopted as global proxies to reconstruct past climate change. Tentative global SST reconstructions since the seventeenth century suggest that around 1700, that is during the coolest period of the Little Ice Age (LIA), SST could have been about 1.0–1.5 °C cooler than the 1950–1980 period. This estimated LIA cooling is greater than what some multiproxy global climate reconstructions suggested, but it is in good agreement with other more recent climate reconstructions including those based on borehole temperature data.
Since 1850 the global surface temperature of the Earth has warmed by about 0.9°C. The computer climate models adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such as the General Circulation Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), projected that the global surface temperature could rise more than 1.5°C by 2030 and more than 4-5°C by 2100 relative to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) because of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These computer projections are being used to justify expensive mitigation policies to drastically reduce CO2 emissions due to the use of fossil fuel. However, these models must be validated before their interpretation of climate change could be considered reliable. Herein, I summarize recent scientific research pointing out that these GCMs fail to properly reconstruct the natural variability of the climate throughout the entire Holocene and at multiple time scales such as: (1) the Holocene Climatic Optimum (9000-6000 years ago) with the subsequent cooling from 5000 years ago to now; (2) the large millennial oscillations observed throughout the Holocene that were responsible, for example, for the Medieval Warm Period; (3) several shorter climatic oscillations with periods of about 9.1, 10.4, 20, 60 years; (4) the climate change trend after 2000 to date, which the models greatly overestimate; and many other patterns. These different pieces of evidence imply two main facts: (1) the models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to radiative forcing, such as to an atmospheric CO2 doubling, is overestimated at least by a factor of 2, which implies a more realistic ECS between 1°C and 2°C; (2) there are a number of solar and astronomical forcings that are still missing in the models or are poorly understood yet. Consequently, these GCMs are not physically reliable for properly interpreting past and future climatic changes. Alternatively, semi-empirical climatic models should be used. Data analysis found that the climatic natural variability is made of several oscillations from the decadal to the millennial scales (e.g. periods of about 9.1, 10.4, 20, 60, 115, 1000 years) and others. These oscillations are coherent with solar, lunar and astronomical oscillations. A semi-empirical climate model that makes use of these oscillations plus a reduced ECS reconstructs with great accuracy the climate variability observed since 1850 and projects a very moderate warming until 2040 and a warming lower than 2°C from 2000 to 2100 using the same anthropogenic emission scenarios used for the 21st-century climate simulations of the CMIP5 models. This result suggests that climatic adaptation policies, which are far less expensive than the mitigation ones, could be sufficient to address the consequences of climatic changes that could occur during the 21st century.
Open Access at: http://www.ijege.uniroma1.it/rivista/ijege-19/ijege-19-volume-01/on-the-reliability-of-computer-based-climate-models/
Aims . The barycentric dynamics of the Sun has increasingly been attracting the attention of researchers from several fields, due to the idea that interactions between the Sun’s orbital motion and solar internal functioning could be possible. Existing high-precision ephemerides that have been used for that purpose do not include the effects of trans-Neptunian bodies, which cause a significant offset in the definition of the solar system’s barycentre. In addition, the majority of the dynamical parameters of the solar barycentric orbit are not routinely calculated according to these ephemerides or are not publicly available.
Methods . We developed a special version of the IAA RAS lunar–solar–planetary ephemerides, EPM2017H, to cover the whole Holocene and 1 kyr into the future. We studied the basic and derived (e.g., orbital torque) barycentric dynamical quantities of the Sun for that time span. A harmonic analysis (which involves an application of VSOP2013 and TOP2013 planetary theories) was performed on these parameters to obtain a physics-based interpretation of the main periodicities present in the solar barycentric movement.
Results . We present a high-precision solar barycentric orbit and derived dynamical parameters (using the solar system’s invariable plane as the reference plane), widely accessible for the whole Holocene and 1 kyr in the future. Several particularities and barycentric phenomena are presented and explained on dynamical bases. A comparison with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory DE431 ephemeris, whose main differences arise from the modelling of trans-Neptunian bodies, shows significant discrepancies in several parameters (i.e., not only limited to angular elements) related to the solar barycentric dynamics. In addition, we identify the main periodicities of the Sun’s barycentric movement and the main giant planets perturbations related to them.
In general, although the climate during the Holocene has been warm, nine well-recognized cold events with an average time interval of more than one thousand years have been highlighted. The forcing mechanism of these cold events with millennial-scale cycles is still widely discussed. In the present study, two different Solar System dynamical processes collectively driven by all eight planets were considered together: the solar inertial motion and the combined planetary tidal force acting on the Sun. In this context, an attempt was made to analyze their effects on solar activity and Holocene North Atlantic cold events at the millennial-scale. These two Solar System dynamical processes were proxied by the distance between the Sun and the Solar System barycenter (DS–S) and the intensity of the combined planetary tidal force (IP–S), respectively. Using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, time series data of Solar System dynamics proxies (i.e., DS–S, and IP–S), solar activity proxies (i.e., ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be), and a proxy of Holocene North Atlantic cold events (i.e., hematite-stained grains) were decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). After extracting IMF components containing millennial-scale cycles, a correlation analysis was performed. As a result, it was found that the solar inertial motion had ∼2,300- and ∼1,000-year cycles and the combined planetary tidal force had a ∼1,500-year cycle, while the solar activity and Holocene North Atlantic cold events proxies had ∼2,300-, ∼1,500-, and ∼1,000-year cycles, respectively. The correlation analysis revealed that the millennial-scale periodic components of the two Solar System dynamics proxies were largely correlated with that of solar activity and Holocene North Atlantic cold events, suggesting that the solar inertial motion and combined planetary tidal force may work together to impact solar activity, and thus the climate in the North Atlantic. Consequently, solar activity was weaker and the North Atlantic temperature was cooler when the Sun was far from the Solar System barycenter and/or the combined planetary tidal force was weakened. This might indicate the involvement of Solar System dynamics on Holocene North Atlantic cold events at the millennial-scale.
Near-surface temperature records show that China warmed by about 0.8 °C from 1950 to 2010. However, there exists an ongoing debate about whether this warming might have been partially due to urbanization bias. In fact, homogenization approaches may be inefficient in densely populated provinces that have experienced a significant urban development since the 1940s. This paper aims to complement previous research on the topic by showing that an alternative approach based on the analysis of the divergence between the minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) near-surface temperature records since the 1940s could be useful to clarify the issue because urban heat island (UHI) effects stress the warming of nocturnal temperatures more than the diurnal ones. Then, the significance of the divergence observed in the data could be evaluated against the expectations produced by the CMIP5 general circulation model simulations. From 1945–1954 to 2005–2014, on average and over China, these models predict that Tmin had to warm 0.19 ± 0.06 °C more than Tmax. However, during the same period, the climatic records show that Tmin warmed 0.83 ± 0.15 °C more than Tmax. A similar analysis demonstrates that the effect is more pronounced during the colder months from November–April than during the warmer ones from May to October. A comparison versus China urbanization records demonstrates that the regions characterized by a large Tmin-Tmax divergence are also the most densely populated ones, such as north-east China, that have experienced a diffused and fast urbanization since the 1940s. The results are significant and may indicate the presence of a substantial uncorrected urbanization bias in the Chinese climate records. Under the hypothesis that Tmax is a better metric for studying climatic changes than Tmean or Tmin, we conclude that about 50% of the recorded warming of China since the 1940s could be due to uncorrected urbanization bias. In addition, we also find that the Tmax record from May to October over China shows the 1940s and the 2000s equally warm, in contrast to the 1 °C warming predicted by the CMIP5 models.
A correlation is found between changes in Earth's length of day [LOD] and the spatio–temporal disposition of the planetary masses in the solar system, characterised by the z axis displacement of the centre of mass of the solar system [CMSS] with respect to the solar equatorial plane smoothed over a bi-decadal period. To test whether this apparent relation is coincidental, other planetary axial rotation rates and orbital periods are compared, and spin–orbit relations are found. Earth's axial angular momentum moment of inertia, and internal dynamics are considered in relation to the temporal displacement between the potential stimulus and the terrestrial response. The differential rotation rate of the Sun is considered in relation to the rotational and orbital periods of the Earth–Moon system and Venus and Mercury, and harmonic ratios are found. These suggest a physical coupling between the bodies of an as yet undetermined nature. Additional evidence for a resonant coupling is found in the relation of total solar irradiance (TSI) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) measurements to the resonant harmonic periods discovered.
Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales, integrating daily discharge data of the River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD 1926 (∼ solar cycles 16–23) and the 5500-year flood layer record from varved sediments of the downstream Ammersee. Flood frequency in the River Ammer discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity when the flood record lags the solar signal by 2–3 years (2-year lag: r = −0.375, p = 0.01; 3-year lag: r = −0.371, p = 0.03). Flood layer frequency in the Ammersee sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variations and significant correlations to a total solar irradiance reconstruction (r = −0.4, p < 0.0001) and 14C production rates (r = 0.37, p < 0.0001), reflecting changes in solar activity. On all timescales, flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. In addition, the configuration of atmospheric circulation associated with periods of increased River Ammer flood frequency broadly resembles that during intervals of reduced solar activity, as expected to be induced by the so-called solar top-down mechanism by model studies. Both atmospheric patterns are characterized by an increase in meridional airflow associated with enhanced atmospheric blocking over central Europe. Therefore, the significant correlations as well as similar atmospheric circulation patterns might provide empirical support for a solar influence on hydroclimate extremes in central Europe during spring and summer by the so-called solar top-down mechanism.
Recent years have seen an increased interest in the question whether the
gravitational action of planets could have an influence on the solar dynamo.
Without discussing the observational validity of the claimed correlations, we
ask for a possible physical mechanism which might link the weak planetary
forces with solar dynamo action. We focus on the helicity oscillations which
were recently found in simulations of the current-driven, kink-type Tayler
instability which is characterized by an m=1 azimuthal dependence. We show how
these helicity oscillations can be resonantly excited by some m=2 perturbation
that reflects a tidal oscillation. Specifically, we speculate that the 11.07
years tidal oscillation induced by the Venus-Earth-Jupiter system may lead to a
1:1 resonant excitation of the oscillation of the alpha effect. Finally, in the
framework of a reduced, zero-dimensional alpha-Omega dynamo model we recover a
22.14 years cycle of the solar dynamo.
By about 2030-2040, the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum. This is evident from multiple studies of quite different characteristics: the phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations of North Atlantic behaviour over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic ra-dionuclides in natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the centre of mass, the planetary spin-orbit coupling, the planetary conjunction history and the general planetary solar terrestrial interaction. During the previous grand solar minima—i.e. the Spörer Minimum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809-1821)—the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age periods.
There is a strong linkage between Earth's rate of rotation and the changes in ocean circulation. The ocean circulation changes, in their turn, are strongly linked to the paleoclimatic evolution on the bordering land masses. This is due to the high heat storing capacity of the oceans and the ocean-air-land heat flux. We propose that the paleoclimatic changes on the decadal-to-millennial time scale are primarily driven by the causal connection between Earth's rotation and ocean circulation changes in a feed-back coupling relation. This operational mechanism is recorded in the ENSO/non-ENSO alternations and in the European instrumental records of the last 300 years. It seems successfully applicable to the historical climatic records, the 1000 AD shifts, the 16 Holocene "super-ENSO" events, the high-amplitude changes at 13-10 Ka BP, and the 20 Ka oceanic circulation. This imply that the oceanic system - in this case the ocean surface circulation - has a much more important role than previously appreciated which should significantly affect our modelling of past and future climatic changes.
According to the IPCC’s simplest model based on the anthropogenic driving forcing factors, the temperature increase up to 2011 from 1750 is 1.15 °C, which is 35 % greater than the observed temperature 0.85 °C. In this study three other models have been analysed. The first model is a cosmic model, which is based on the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) changes and space dust amount. This model gives correlation r2=0.972. The second model is the combination of space dust changes, the calculated warming impacts of greenhouse gases and the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) changes giving correlation r2=0.971. The third model is the combination of space dust and TSI changes giving correlation r2=0.948. All these models have negligible error in 2010. The atmospheric water has a decisive role in the real impacts of greenhouse gases. It remains uncertain, because the first global humidity measurements start from 1948. The final conclusion of this study is: the greenhouse gases cannot explain the ups and downs of the Earth’s temperature trend since 1750 and the temperature pause since 1998, but the space dust changes can do it extremely well.
There are claims that there is correlation between the speed of center of
mass of the solar system and the global temperature anomaly. This is partly
grounded in data analysis and partly in a priori expectations. The magnitude
squared coherence function is the proper measure for testing such claims. It is
not hard to produce high coherence estimates at periods around 15--22 and
50--60 years between these data sets. This is done in two independent ways, by
wavelets and by a periodogram method. But does a coherence of high value mean
that there is coherence of high significance? In order to investigate that,
four different measures for significance are studied. Due to the periodic
nature of the data, only Monte Carlo simulation based on a non-parametric
random phase method is appropriate.
None of the high values of coherence then turn out to be significant. Coupled
with a lack of a physical mechanism that can connect these phenomena, the
planetary hypothesis is therefore dismissed.
Changes in solar activity have previously been proposed to cause decadal- to millennial-scale fluctuations in both the modern and Holocene climates. Direct observational records of solar activity, such as sunspot numbers, exist for only the past few hundred years, so solar variability for earlier periods is typically reconstructed from measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides such as 10 Be and 14 C from ice cores and tree rings. Here we present a high-resolution 10 Be record from the ice core collected from central Greenland by the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP). The record spans from 22,500 to 10,000 years ago, and is based on new and compiled data. Using 14 C records to control for climate-related influences on 10 Be deposition, we reconstruct centennial changes in solar activity. We find that during the Last Glacial Maximum, solar minima correlate with more negative 18 O values of ice and are accompanied by increased snow accumulation and sea-salt input over central Greenland. We suggest that solar minima could have induced changes in the stratosphere that favour the development of high-pressure blocking systems located to the south of Greenland, as has been found in observations and model simulations for recent climate. We conclude that the mechanism behind solar forcing of regional climate change may have been similar under both modern and Last Glacial Maximum climate conditions. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
A new δ(18)O Phanerozoic database, based on 24,000 low-Mg calcitic fossil shells, yields a prominent 32 Ma oscillation with a secondary 175 Ma frequency modulation. The periodicities and phases of these oscillations are consistent with parameters postulated for the vertical motion of the solar system across the galactic plane, modulated by the radial epicyclic motion. We propose therefore that the galactic motion left an imprint on the terrestrial climate record. Based on its vertical motion, the effective average galactic density encountered by the solar system is . This suggests the presence of a disk dark matter component.
Context. Abreu et al. (2012, A&A.; 548, A88) have recently compared the periodicities in a 14C - 10Be proxy record of solar variability during the Holocene and found a strong similarity with the periodicities predicted on the basis of a model of the time-dependent torque exerted by the planets on the sun's tachocline. If verified, this effect would represent a dramatic advance not only in the basic understanding of the Sun's variable activity, but also in the potential influence of this variability on the Earth's climate. Cameron and Schussler (2013, A&A.; 557, A83) have seriously criticized the statistical treatment used by Abreu et al. to test the significance of the coincidences between the periodicities of their model with the Holocene proxy record. Aims: If the Abreu et al. hypothesis is correct, it should be possible to find the same periodicities in the records of cosmogenic nuclides at earlier times. Methods: We present here a high-resolution record of 10Be in the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core from Antarctica during the Marine Interglacial Stage 9.3 (MIS 9.3), 325-336 kyr ago, and investigate its spectral properties. Results: We find very limited similarity with the periodicities seen in the proxy record of solar variability during the Holocene, or with that of the model of Abreu et al. Conclusions: We find no support for the hypothesis of a planetary influence on solar activity, and raise the question of whether the centennial periodicities of solar activity observed during the Holocene are representative of solar activity variability in general.
Studies on continuously improving records of geological, biological, and astronomical events and processes led to increased awareness of common cycles in the records. Here we enhance the analytical scope of earlier discoveries by showing that most of these cycles occur in unison, as a harmonic series. Furthermore, we consider them universal because extra-terrestrial cycles involving quasar and star formation exhibit comparable periods to terrestrial cycles involving volcanism, extinction patterns, and genetic development. The cycles oscillate in multiples of three, cascading into a period-tripled set of cycles. We provide one equation combining the characteristics of 32 theoretical cycles, with periods ranging from 57.3 years to 1.64 billion years. Our statistical tests show that the astronomical and geological cycles are phase-locked synchronously, while the biological cycles lag. This synchrony suggests a common astronomical cause for geological and biological cycles. Along with the synchrony, the extensiveness of the observed period-tripling indicates that self-similar patterns develop at a universal scale. This suggests that divisible matter is distributed fractally throughout the universe, as postulated by fractal cosmologies, bifurcation theory, and chaos theory.
Free download here: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077914000472
Solar activity changes with time in a cyclic pattern. The origin of
those changes may be caused by planetary motion around the Sun,
affecting the position of the Sun's motion with respect to the centre of
mass and subjecting the Sun to changes in angular momentum and
gravitational tidal forces. With modern achievements, this multi-body
problem can now be addressed in a constructive way. Indeed, there are
multiple criteria suggesting that the solar variability is driven by a
planetary beat also affecting a number of terrestrial variables:
14C and 10Be production, Earth's rotation, ocean
circulation, paleoclimate, geomagnetism, etc. The centennial changes
between grand solar maxima and minima imply that we will soon be in a
new solar minimum and, in analogy with past events, probably also in
Little Ice Age climatic conditions.
A hypothesized low-frequency climate signal propagating across the
Northern Hemisphere through a network of synchronized climate indices
was identified in previous analyses of instrumental and proxy data. The
tempo of signal propagation is rationalized in terms of the multidecadal
component of Atlantic Ocean variability—the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation. Through multivariate statistical analysis of an expanded
database, we further investigate this hypothesized signal to elucidate
propagation dynamics. The Eurasian Arctic Shelf-Sea Region, where sea
ice is uniquely exposed to open ocean in the Northern Hemisphere,
emerges as a strong contender for generating and sustaining propagation
of the hemispheric signal. Ocean-ice-atmosphere coupling spawns a
sequence of positive and negative feedbacks that convey persistence and
quasi-oscillatory features to the signal. Further stabilizing the system
are anomalies of co-varying Pacific-centered atmospheric circulations.
Indirectly related to dynamics in the Eurasian Arctic, these anomalies
appear to negatively feed back onto the Atlantic`s freshwater balance.
Earth's rotational rate and other proxies encode traces of this signal
as it makes its way across the Northern Hemisphere.
A Venus-Earth-Jupiter spin-orbit coupling model is constructed from a
combination of the Venus-Earth-Jupiter tidal-torquing model and the gear
effect. The new model produces net tangential torques that act upon the
outer convective layers of the Sun with periodicities that match many of
the long-term cycles that are found in the 10Be and
14C proxy records of solar activity.
The heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) is the extension of the coronal
magnetic field carried out into the solar system by the solar wind. It
is the means by which the Sun interacts with planetary magnetospheres
and channels charged particles propagating through the heliosphere. As
the HMF remains rooted at the solar photosphere as the Sun rotates, the
large-scale HMF traces out an Archimedean spiral. This pattern is
distorted by the interaction of fast and slow solar wind streams, as
well as the interplanetary manifestations of transient solar eruptions
called coronal mass ejections. On the smaller scale, the HMF exhibits an
array of waves, discontinuities, and turbulence, which give hints to the
solar wind formation process. This review aims to summarise observations
and theory of the small- and large-scale structure of the HMF.
Solar-cycle and cycle-to-cycle evolution of the HMF is discussed in
terms of recent spacecraft observations and pre-spaceage proxies for the
HMF in geomagnetic and galactic cosmic ray records.
The present work is a critical revision of the hypothesis of the planetary
tidal influence on solar activity published by Abreu et al. (Astron. Astrophys.
548, A88, 2012; called A12 here). A12 describes a hypothesis that planets can
have an impact on the solar tachocline and therefore on solar activity. We
checked the procedure and results of A12, namely the algorithm of planetary
tidal torque calculation and the wavelet coherence between torque and
heliospheric modulation potential. We found that the claimed peaks in
long-period range of the torque spectrum are artefacts caused by the
calculation algorithm. Also the statistical significance of the results of the
wavelet coherence is found to be overestimated by an incorrect choice of the
background assumption of red noise. Using a more conservative non-parametric
random phase method, we found that the long-period coherence between planetary
torque and heliospheric modulation potential becomes insignificant. Thus we
conclude that the considered hypothesis of planetary tidal influence on solar
activity is not based on a solid ground.
The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system, which since Pythagoras of Samos (ca. 570–495 BC) is known as the music of the spheres, is briefly reviewed from the Renaissance up to contemporary research. Copernicus' heliocentric model from 1543 suggested that the planets of our solar system form a kind of mutually ordered and quasi-synchronized system. From 1596 to 1619 Kepler formulated preliminary mathematical relations of approximate commensurabilities among the planets, which were later re-formulated in the Titius–Bode rule (1766–1772), which successfully predicted the orbital position of Ceres and Uranus. Following the discovery of the ∼ 11 yr sunspot cycle, in 1859 Wolf suggested that the observed solar variability could be approximately synchronized with the orbital movements of Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Sat-urn. Modern research has further confirmed that (1) the planetary orbital periods can be approximately deduced from a simple system of resonant frequencies; (2) the solar system oscillates with a specific set of gravitational frequencies, and many of them (e.g., within the range between 3 yr and 100 yr) can be approximately constructed as harmonics of a base period of ∼ 178.38 yr; and (3) solar and climate records are also characterized by planetary harmonics from the monthly to the millennial timescales. This short review concludes with an emphasis on the contribution of the author's research on the empirical evidences and physical modeling of both solar and climate variability based on astronomical harmonics. The general conclusion is that the solar system works as a resonator characterized by a specific harmonic planetary structure that also synchronizes the Sun's activity and the Earth's climate. The special issue Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts (Mörner et al., 2013) further develops the ideas about the planetary–solar–terrestrial interaction with the personal contribution of 10 authors.
The best method for identification of planetary forcing of the Earth's climate is to investigate pe-riodic variations in climate time series. Some natural frequencies in the Earth climate system seem to be synchronized to planetary cycles, and amplified to a level of detection. The response by the Earth depends on location, and in global averaged series, some planetary signals may be below detection. Comparing sea level rise with sunspot variations, we find phase variations, and even a phase reversal. A periodogram of the global temperature shows that the Earth amplifies other periods than observed in sunspots. A particular case is that the Earth amplifies the 22 yr Hale period, and not the 11 yr Schwabe period. This may be explained by alternating peak or plateau appearance of cosmic ray counts. Among longer periods, the Earth amplifies the 60 yr planetary period and keeps the phase during centennials. The recent global warming may be interpreted as a rising branch of a millennium cycle, identified in ice cores and sediments and also recorded in history. This cycle peaks in the second half of this century, and then a 500 yr cooling trend will start. An expected solar grand minimum due to a 200 yr cycle will introduce additional cooling in the first part of this century.
Observations of solar and planetary orbits, rotations, and diameters show that these attributes are re-lated by simple ratios. The forces of gravity and magnetism and the principles of energy conservation, entropy, power laws, and the log-normal distribution which are evident are discussed in relation to planetary distribu-tion with respect to time in the solar system. This discussion is informed by consideration of the periodicities of interactions, as well as the regularity and periodicity of fluctuations in proxy records which indicate solar variation. It is demonstrated that a simple model based on planetary interaction frequencies can well replicate the timing and general shape of solar variation over the period of the sunspot record. Finally, an explanation is offered for the high degree of stable organisation and correlation with cyclic solar variability observed in the solar system. The interaction of the forces of gravity and magnetism along with the thermodynamic principles acting on planets may be analogous to those generating the internal dynamics of the Sun. This possibility could help account for the existence of strong correlations between orbital dynamics and solar variation for which a sufficiently powerful physical mechanism has yet to be fully demonstrated.
A correlation is found between changes in Earth's length of day [LOD] and the spatio–temporal disposition of the planetary masses in the solar system, characterised by the z axis displacement of the centre of mass of the solar system [CMSS] with respect to the solar equatorial plane smoothed over a bi-decadal period. To test whether this apparent relation is coincidental, other planetary axial rotation rates and orbital periods are compared, and spin–orbit relations are found. Earth's axial angular momentum moment of inertia, and internal dynamics are considered in relation to the temporal displacement between the potential stimulus and the terrestrial response. The differential rotation rate of the Sun is considered in relation to the rotational and orbital periods of the Earth–Moon system and Venus and Mercury, and harmonic ratios are found. These suggest a physical coupling between the bodies of an as yet undetermined nature. Additional evidence for a resonant coupling is found in the relation of total solar irradiance (TSI) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) measurements to the resonant harmonic periods discovered.
The deposition of varved sedimentary sequences is usually controlled by climate conditions. The study of two late Miocene evaporite successions (one halite and the other gypsum) consisting of annual varves has been carried out to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions existing during the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis, , 6 Ma, when thick evaporite deposits accumulated on the floor of the Mediterranean basin. Spectral analyses of these varved evaporitic successions reveal significant periodicity peaks at around 3–5, 9, 11–13, 20–27 and 50–100 yr. A comparison with modern precipitation data in the western Mediterranean shows that during the acme of the Messinian salinity crisis the climate was not in a permanent evaporitic stage, but in a dynamic situation where evaporite deposition was controlled by quasi-periodic climate oscillations with similarity to modern analogs including Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation, and decadal to secular lunar- and solar-induced cycles. Particularly we found a significant quasi-decadal oscillation with a prominent 9-year peak that is commonly also found in modern temperature records and is present in the contemporary Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. These cyclicities are common to both ancient and modern climate records because they can be associated with solar and solar-lunar tidal cycles.
During the Messinian the Mediterranean basin as well as the global ocean were characterized by different configurations than at present, in terms of continent distribution, ocean size, geography, hydrological connections, and ice-sheet volumes. The recognition of modern-style climate oscillations during the Messinian suggests that, although local geographic factors acted as pre-conditioning factors turning the Mediterranean Sea into a giant brine pool, external climate forcings, regulated by solar–lunar cycles and largely independent from local geographic factors, modulated the deposition of the evaporites.
Based on a quantitative study of the common fluctuations of 14 Ca nd10Be production rates, we have derived a time series of the solar magnetic variability over the last 1200 years. This record is converted into irradiance variations by linear scaling based on previous studies of sun-like stars and of the sun’s behavior over the last few centuries. The new solar irradiance record exhibits low values during the well-known solar minima centered at about 1900, 1810 (Dalton) and 1690 ad (Maunder). Further back in time, a rather long period between 1450 and 1750 ad is characterized by low irradiance values. A shorter period is centered at about 1200 ad, with irradiance slightly higher or similar to present day values. It is tempting to correlate these periods with the so-called ‘‘little ice age’’ and ‘‘medieval warm period’’, respectively. An accurate quantification of the climatic impact of this new irradiance record requires the use of coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (GCMs). Nevertheless, our record is already compatible with a global cooling of about 0.5‐1°C during the ‘‘little ice age’’, and with a general cooling trend during the past millenium followed by global warming during the 20th century (Mann et al., 1999).
The coarse structure of the 14 C spectrum consists of a secular trend curve that may be closely fit by a sinusoidal curve with period ca 11,000 yr and half amplitude ±51. This long-term trend is the result of changes in the earth's geomagnetic dipole moment. Consequently, it modulates solar components of the 14 C spectrum but does not appear to modulate a component of the spectrum of ca 2300-yr period. The ca 2300-yr period is of uncertain origin but may be due to changes in climate because it also appears in the δ 18 O spectrum of ice cores. This component strongly modulates the well-known ca 200-yr period of the spectrum's fine structure. The hyperfine structure consists of two components that fluctuate with the 11-yr solar cycle. One component results from solar-wind modulation of the galactic cosmic rays and has a half-amplitude of ca ±1.5. The other component is the result of 14 C production by solar cosmic rays that arrive more randomly but rise and fall with the 11-yr cycle and appear to dominate the fluctuation of the galactic cosmic-ray-produced component by a factor of two.
Phenomena related to the natural carbon cycle as the 14 C distribution between atmosphere and ocean and the atmospheric response to the input of fossil fuel CO 2 and of 14 C produced in nuclear weapon tests have been quantitatively discussed by other authors using box models. However the exchange coefficients derived from the natural 14 C distribution do not agree with those valid to describe the short-term phenomena. A model consisting of a well mixed atmospheric box coupled to a long-term biosphere, of an ocean surface box and a diffusive deep ocean is discussed. The dynamic parameters were derived from the preindustrial 14 C distribution in atmosphere and ocean. A consistent description of phenomena with completely different characteristic times is possible, because in the box diffusion model the flux from mixed layer to deep sea increases for decreasing time constants of the perturbations. This is in contrary to box models where it is essentially independent of the time constants if they are smaller than a few hundred years. Due to this fact our model is valid for predictions of the atmospheric CO 2 response to the various possible future CO 2 input time functions. DOI: 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1975.tb01671.x
This study investigates the existence of a multi-frequency spectral coherence between planetary and global surface temperature oscillations by using advanced techniques of coherence analysis and statistical significance tests. The performance of the standard Matlab mscohere algorithms is compared versus high resolution coherence analysis methodologies such as the canonical coordinates analysis. The Matlab mscohere function highlights large coherence peaks at 20 and 60-year periods although, due to the shortness of the global surface temperature record (1850-2014), the statistical significance of the result depends on the specific window function adopted for pre-processing the data. In fact, the window functions disrupt the low frequency component of the spectrum. On the contrary, using the canonical coordinates analysis at least five coherent frequencies at the 95% significance level are found at the following periods: 6.6, 7.4, 14, 20 and 60 years. Thus, high resolution coherence analysis confirms that the climate system can be partially modulated by astronomical forces of gravitational, electromagnetic and solar origin. A possible chain of the physical causes explaining this coherence is briefly discussed.
Time series of sea-level rise are fitted by a sinusoid of period ~ 60 years, confirming the cycle reported for the global mean temperature of the earth. This cycle appears in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The last maximum of the sinusoid coincides with the temperature plateau observed since the end of the 20th century. The onset of declining phase of AMO, the recent excess of the global sea ice area anomaly and the negative slope of global mean temperature measured by satellite from 2002 to 2015, all these indicators sign for the onset of the declining phase of the 60-year cycle. Once this cycle is subtracted from observations, the transient climate response is revised downwards consistent with latest observations, with latest evaluations based on atmospheric infrared absorption and with a general tendency of published climate sensitivity. The enhancement of the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal oscillations which is found up to 71% faster than the atmospheric CO2 increase, focus on earth greening and benefit for crops yields of the supplementary photosynthesis, further minimizing the consequences of the tiny anthropogenic contribution to warming.
Radiocarbon concentration (Δ14C) data in tree rings over the past 8000 year are analysed. These data represent the 14C concentration in the Earth's atmosphere in the past. The series of Δ14CD derived from the initial data by elimination of the trend of geomagnetic origin are studied. It is shown that the amplitude of Δ14C fluctuations is changed on the everage with the 2400 year period and the basic contribution to the long-term radiocarbon concentration variations brings about 2400-year period also. The epochs of high and low amplitude of Δ14CD changes resolved. It is shown that extreme of the epoch of the high amplitude coincide in time with maxima of the long-term variations radiocarbon concentrations. The interpretation obtained results is given as combinatorial influence of the solar activity and climatic factors.
Cosmogenic isotopes provide the only quantitative proxy for analyzing the long-term solar variability over a centennial timescale. While essential progress has been achieved in both measurements and modeling of the cosmogenic proxy, uncertainties still remain in the determination of the geomagnetic dipole moment evolution. Here we improve the reconstruction of solar activity over the past nine millennia using a multi-proxy approach. We used records of the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, current numerical models of the isotope production and transport in Earth's atmosphere, and available geomagnetic field reconstructions, including a new reconstruction relying on an updated archeo-/paleointensity database. The obtained series were analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method to study the millennial-scale trends. A new reconstruction of the geomagnetic dipole field moment, GMAG.9k, is built for the last nine millennia. New reconstructions of solar activity covering the last nine millennia, quantified in sunspot numbers, are presented and analyzed. A conservative list of grand minima and maxima is provided. The primary components of the reconstructed solar activity, as determined using the SSA method, are different for the series based on 14C and 10Be. These primary components can only be ascribed to long-term changes in the terrestrial system and not to the Sun. They have been removed from the reconstructed series. In contrast, the secondary SSA components of the reconstructed solar activity are found to be dominated by a common ~2400-yr quasi-periodicity, the so-called Hallstatt cycle, in both the 14C and 10Be based series. This Hallstatt cycle thus appears to be related to solar activity. Finally, we show that the grand minima and maxima occurred intermittently over the studied period, with clustering near highs and lows of the Hallstatt cycle, respectively.
We present results of 14C dating of several tree-ring series from the Late Glacial and Early Holocene, analyzed at the Heidelberg University radiocarbon laboratory. Although these are floating series, they contribute high-resolution information about the variability of atmospheric 14C during those periods.
We present a new guide-split concept for transporting cold and thermal neutrons to multiple instruments from a single beam port at a neutron facility without compromising the useful neutron brilliance notably for any of the instruments.
Elliptical guides are capable of transporting an almost completely filled phase space within a large divergence (±2° for cold neutrons). It is therefore possible to place several secondary guides side by side pointing in slightly different directions using the end of a primary guide as a virtual source. The instruments placed at the secondary guides hence exploit different parts of the phase space transported by the primary guide. In addition, the resulting kink between the primary and secondary guide eliminates line of sight.
Using ray-tracing simulations of three different set-ups (with two, four, and eight secondary guides) we show that it is possible to illuminate at least eight sample positions from one beam port with a brilliance transfer above 90% on each sample on a 150 m long instrument. This has been done for a phase space volume comprised of an area of 1×1 cm² and a maximum divergence of±0.5° within a wavelength band of 4.25–5.75 Å. We show, by a full virtual experiment, an example of applying the guide-split concept to an instrument proposed for the European Spallation Source, namely a magnetism diffractometer.
During the last few years a number of works have proposed that planetary
harmonics regulate solar oscillations and the Earth climate. Herein I address
some critiques. Detailed analysis of the data do support the planetary theory
of solar and climate variation. In particular, I show that: (1) high-resolution
cosmogenic 10Be and 14C solar activity proxy records both during the Holocene
and during the Marine Interglacial Stage 9.3 (MIS 9.3), 325-336 kyr ago,
present four common spectral peaks at about 103, 115, 130 and 150 yrs (this is
the frequency band that generates Maunder and Dalton like grand solar minima)
that can be deduced from a simple solar model based on a generic non-linear
coupling between planetary and solar harmonics; (2) time-frequency analysis and
advanced minimum variance distortion-less response (MVDR) magnitude squared
coherence analysis confirm the existence of persistent astronomical harmonics
in the climate records at the decadal and multidecadal scales when used with an
appropriate window length (110 years) to guarantee a sufficient spectral
resolution. However, the best coherence test can be currently made only by
comparing directly the temperature and astronomical spectra as done in Scafetta
(J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 72(13), 951-970, 2010). The spectral coherence
between planetary, solar and climatic oscillations is confirmed at the
following periods: 5.2 yr, 5.93 yr, 6.62 yr, 7.42 yr, 9.1 yr (main lunar tidal
cycle), 10.4 yr (related to the 9.93-10.87-11.86 yr solar cycle harmonics),
13.8-15.0 yr, 20 yr, 30 yr and 61 yr, 103 yr, 115 yr, 130 yr, 150 yr and about
1000 year. This work responds to the critiques of Cauquoin et al. (Astron.
Astrophys. 561, A132, 2014) who ignored alternative planetary theories of solar
variations, and of Holm (J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 110-111, 23-27, 2014) who
used inadequate physical and time frequency analysis of the data.
We investigated relations among solar activity, climate and cosmogenic radiocarbon in a time series of various astrophysical, geophysical, archaeological and historical data. We studied records of tree-ring thickness, aurora borealis, the catalog of visible sunspots, sedimentary deposits from lakes and oceans, global glacial advance and retreat chronology, polar ice cores and human migrations. In these data, we searched for evidence of medium-and long-term solar cycles. Application of different spectral techniques to the atmospheric 14C concentration time series indicates the existence of spectral lines at a few dominant periodicities ranging from 11 yr to ca. 2 ka. Different laboratories have confirmed the presence of the ca. 210-and 2000-yr spectral features in long 14C series in tree rings. The ca. 210-yr 14C cycle is probably caused by heliomagnetic modulation of the cosmic-ray flux. The extrema of both the ca. 210-yr 14C period and solar activity correlate with the cold and warm epochs of global climate, at least for the past millennium, and this correlation has the correct sign. The periods of low solar activity are well correlated with the Little Ice Ages. The cause of the ca. 2 ka 14C period is, as yet, uncertain, but evidence from the analyses of various natural records shows that it could have a solar origin. In this study, we obtained powerful man-ifestations of solar activity and climate warming epochs at ca. 1500, 3800, 6100, 8200, 10,500 and 12,600 BP. A similar fea-ture occurs in epochs of minimum amplitude in the 14C content in tree rings. Thus, solar activity may affect both the 14C content in the Earth's atmosphere and climate.
New Arizona high precision L\14C data back to 6500 BC plot close to an 11,300-yr period sinusoid extrapolated from the post 5300 BC data (offset = +32%o, half ampli-tude = 51%o and phase lag = 2.29 radians). The trend curve is modulated by high latitude components of the non-dipole field with a fundamental period of 2400 yr. Based upon a model of Lund and Banerjee (1985), the non-dipole field rotates and every 1200 yr the high latitude maxima pass over the north magnetic pole and near the south magnetic pole in reversed polarity. This modulates cosmic ray production producing extended maxima ca AD 1700, 700 BC, 3100 BC, and 5500 BC. The 2400 period appears to be stationary. The magnetic field also modulates the amplitude of the solar activity induced cycles of periods 200, 80, and 11 yr as can be seen in the Zurich-Bern Camp Century ice core data as well as in the &4C fluctuation data. Reinterpretation of the Camp Century 10Be data indicates that it is in agree-ment with magnetic field as well as solar activity modulation of terrestrial radioisotope produc-tion. INTRODUCTION At the time of the Twelfth Nobel Symposium, 16 years ago, three major causes of atmospheric 14C fluctuations were identified and discussed (Olsson, 1970). These were astrophysical effects, in particular, solar modu-lation of the 14C production rate, geophysical effects, specifically changes in the earth's magnetic field, and climate effects involving changes in carbon reservoir parameters and exchange rates. Recent reviews of archaeomagnetic and rock magnetic data suggest an increase of the virtual axial dipole moment (VADM) by ca 60% from ca 5500 to 2300 BP followed by a decrease to the present value of close to 8.0 x 1022 Amt (Barton, Merrill & Barbetti, 1979; Champion, 1980).
Paleo-cosmic-ray (PCR) records based on cosmogenic 10Be and 14C data are used to study the variations in cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years. There are four strong correlations with the motion of the Jovian planets; the probability of occurring by chance being < 10−5. They are i) the PCR periodicities at 87, 350, 510, and 710 years, which closely approximate integer multiples of half the Uranus–Neptune synodic period; ii) eight periodicities in the torques calculated to be exerted by the planets on an asymmetric tachocline that approximate the periods observed in the PCR; iii) the maxima of the long-term PCR variations are coincident with syzygy (alignment) of the four Jovian planets in 5272 and 644 BP; and iv) in the time domain, the PCR intensity decreases during the first 60 years of the ≈ 172 year Jose cycle (Jose, Astron. J. 70, 193, 1965) and increases in the remaining ≈ 112 years in association with barycentric anomalies in the distance between the Sun and the center of mass of the solar system. Furthermore, sunspot and neutron-monitor data show that three anomalous sunspot cycles (4th, 7th, and 20th) and the long sunspot minimum of 2006 – 2009 CE coincided with the first and second barycentric anomalies of the 58th and 59th Jose cycles. Phase lags between the planetary and heliospheric effects are ≤ five years. The 20 largest Grand Minima during the past 9400 years coincided with the latter half of the Jose cycle in which they occurred. These correlations are not of terrestrial origin, nor are they due to the planets’ contributing directly to the cosmic-ray modulation process in the heliosphere. Low cosmic-ray intensity (higher solar activity) occurred when Uranus and Neptune were in superior conjunction (mutual cancellation), while high intensities occurred when Uranus–Neptune were in inferior conjunction (additive effects). Many of the prominent peaks in the PCR Fourier spectrum can be explained in terms of the Jose cycle, and the occurrence of barycentric anomalies.
Defining the eccentricity vector as the dimensionless Runge-Lenz vector provides an alternative elementary derivation of the Keplerian polar orbit equation.
Using many features of Ian Wilson's Tidal Torque theory, a mathematical
model of the sunspot cycle has been created that reproduces changing
sunspot cycle lengths and has an 85% correlation with the sunspot
numbers from 1749 to 2013. The model makes a reasonable representation
of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr, placing all the solar
minimums in their right time periods. More importantly, I believe the
model can be used to forecast future solar cycles quantitatively for 30
yr and directionally for 100 yr. The forecast is for a solar minimum and
quiet Sun for the next 30 to 100 yr. The model is a slowly changing
chaotic system with patterns that are never repeated in exactly the same
way. Inferences as to the causes of the sunspot cycle patterns can be
made by looking at the model's terms and relating them to aspects of the
Tidal Torque theory and, possibly, Jovian magnetic field interactions.
The state of the sun strongly affects terrestrial phenomena. While the
eleven-year solar cycle was recognized in the XIX century, the lack of
direct data concerning our star in historical times has made it
difficult to determine the characteristics of solar variability on a
secular scale. We here construct a series of yearly sunspot numbers as
observed by eye in remote times and recorded in historical documents
covering the period 165 BC-1918 AD. Using different spectral analysis
methods, we find a 250-year cycle which appears to have a solar origin.
Records of time variations in the atmospheric C-14 production rate for
the past 7200 years were analyzed after removing the 11,000-year
geomagnetic contribution. It was found that residual variations exhibit
a 2200-2600 year quasi-periodicity, which consists of both a long-term
variation of the mean and a superposed recurring pattern of
century-scale variations; the strongest of the century-scale variations
occur near successive maxima of the 2400 year cycles. The recurrence of
large amplitude C-14 variations at 2400 year intervals is most directly
explained as due to solar forcing at both the about 2400 year and the
century-scale periods. The existence of a 2400 year solar quasi-cycle
has implications for the predictability of future pronounced solar
activity minima and for the interpretation of certain minor Holocene
climatic variations.
A maximum entropy method (MEM) spectral analysis is made of the number
of historically recorded meteorite falls in China from AD 619 to 1943
and of the number of witnessed falls in the world during the period from
1800 to 1974. The presence of a 60-year period as suggested by previous
workers, Chang and Yu (1981), is confirmed as a common feature of
meteorite fall rate. In this paper the period is determined to be
between 60 and 63 years. A periodicity of 240 years, also previously
noted, is unstable in spectral analysis, suggesting that this
periodicity may not exist. The presence of two more periodic components:
approximately 10.6 and 17.7 years in meteorite flux is indicated from
the power spectrum.
Callebaut et al. (2012)'s claim that Scafetta (2010)'s results about a
correlation between 20-year and 60-year temperature cycles and the
orbital motion of Jupiter and Saturn were not confirmed by Humlum et al.
(2011) is erroneous and severely misleading. Also Callebaut et al.
(2012)'s absolute claim that a planetary influences on the Sun should be
ruled out as a possible cause of solar variability is not conclusive
because: (1) their calculations are based on simplistic classical
Newtonian analytical mechanics that does not fully characterize solar
physics; (2) the planetary theory of solar variation is supported by
empirical findings. We show that both claims are already questioned in
the scientific literature.