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The Atmospheric Water Vapor Effect on Direct Normal Irradiance Under Clear Skies
Abstract
Atmospheric water vapor (AWV) is an important constituent of the atmosphere due to its strong absorption effect on solar radiation and high variability over space and time according to the meteorological conditions. AWV’s extinction affects solar radiation reaching the ground and especially the direct normal irradiance (DNI). However, there are many solar energy applications for which DNI needs to be evaluated frequently and accurately and precise estimations are achieved when the AWV effect is considered. In this study, the AWV effect on DNI is estimated for different aerosol conditions. The decrease of DNI is between 10 and 30 % for the vast majority of cases and could reach 60 % for extremely high values of aerosol optical depth. The monthly averaged values of AWV for 2000–2014 across the globe, derived from MODIS-Terra, are calculated and, as an example of the year-to-year change, the differences from year 2014 are presented. According to results, the difference from the long-term average could lead to significant differences in the estimated DNI.
... For example, all the four models project an increase in the water vapour path in the near-and far-future periods (Figure C.3 in Appendix C). Water vapour can absorb part of the incoming shortwave radiation (Di Biagio et al., 2012;Kampouris et al., 2017;Obregón et al., 2015;Radel et al., 2015). ...
Since Paris Agreement in 2015, interest in projects dealing with solar photovoltaic energy implementation in West Africa (WA) has risen tremendously. Nevertheless, a notable drawback to such development in the region is the intense cloud cover which reduces incoming solar radiation when present and causes fluctuations in power production. Understanding the occurrence of clouds and their impacts on the incoming solar radiation is important for developing strategies to manage power generation. However, our understanding of clouds in WA is still relatively low. This is further complicated by the possible future impacts of climate change on the atmospheric factors that control solar power generation. Thus, this thesis seeks to address the following questions:1.How frequent and in what synoptic conditions do clouds occur and evolve in WA?2.What are the effects of the occurrence of clouds on the incoming solar radiation?3.How will climate change affect solar power generation and its atmospheric drivers?A climatology of various cloud types is first created using reanalysis and satellite-based data. In general, cloud cover in WA is characterized by a south-north gradient, with the southern areas cloudiest at all times. During the wet season, the cloud coverage is between 70% and 80% over southern WA. High- and mid-level clouds occur throughout the year over the whole region. However, low clouds, with distinct seasonal and spatial variations, are primarily confined to the south in the dry season but intensify and extend northward in the wet season. South of 15°N, at least one cloud type is present at all times, and simultaneous occurrence of all cloud types is frequent.Afterward, the synoptic conditions in which low clouds occur are investigated. During the wet season, low cloud occurrences are characterized by a high moisture flux dominated by a significant amount of background moisture and strong southwesterly winds blowing from the Guinea Coast. Furthermore, low cloud occurrence is preceded by a significant reduction of the air temperature in the lower atmosphere. Moisture flux is weaker in the dry season; however, the background moisture plays an important role in low clouds’ occurrences.Next, the direct impacts of cloud occurrence on the quantity and variability of incoming solar radiation are quantified. The attenuation of solar radiation is greatest during the summer months. In August, about 55% of solar radiation is lost on average over southern WA, while between 20% and 35% is lost over the Sahel area and northern parts of the region. In terms of the variability, the sub-daily evolution of the incoming solar radiation does not change much from one year to the other in the dry season. On the other hand, the radiation received during the rainy season is associated with higher uncertainty.Finally, the impacts of climate change on future solar power potential and its drivers are investigated with a suite of CMIP6 climate models. Solar power generation is expected to decrease in the region, with most of the models projecting about a 20% reduction over southern WA in the second part of the 21st century. All models project a decrease in surface solar radiation and an increase in the near-surface air temperature. However, the projected reduction of the future solar power potential is mainly due to decreasing solar radiation rather than rising temperatures. These results contribute to the ongoing feasibility assessments of long-term solar energy projects and have direct implications for the siting of solar farms in the region.
The libRadtran software package is a suite of tools
for radiative transfer calculations in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Its main tool is the uvspec program. It may be used to compute
radiances, irradiances and actinic fluxes in the solar and
terrestrial part of the spectrum. The design of uvspec allows
simple problems to be easily solved using defaults and included
data, hence making it suitable for educational purposes.
At the same time the flexibility in how and what input
may be specified makes it a powerful and versatile tool for
research tasks. The uvspec tool and additional tools included
with libRadtran are described and realistic examples of their
use are given. The libRadtran software package is available
from http://www.libradtran.org.
A study was performed to: (1) define the relative significance of the various atmospheric constituents to the depletion of the direct solar beam irradiance; (2) compare and evaluate several simple models versus a complex SOLTRAN-model; and (3) develop an improved, easy to use model. The results indicate that for a reasonable range of atmospheric conditions the broadband direct beam energy is attenuated by atmospheric constituents in the following order: aerosols attenuate the most; molecular scattering is next in importance; and water vapor absorption is third. Attenuation by O3, O2, and CO2 is minor. The total irradiance from various models agree to within + or - 10 percent at small zenith angles, but diverge significantly at large zenith angles.
A new, simple model for calculating clear-sky direct and diffuse spectral irradiance on horizontal and tilted surfaces is presented. The model is based on previously reported simple algorithms and on comparisons with rigorous radiative transfer calculations and limited outdoor measurements. Equations for direct normal irradiance are outlined; and include: Raleigh scattering; aerosol scattering and absorption; water vapor absorption; and ozone and uniformly mixed gas absorption. Inputs to the model include solar zenith angle, collector tilt angle, atmospheric turbidity, amount of ozone and precipitable water vapor, surface pressure, and ground albedo. The model calculates terrestrial spectra from 0.3 to 4.0 ..mu..m with approximately 10 nm resolution. A major goal of this work is to provide researchers with the capability to calculate spectral irradiance for different atmospheric conditions and different collector geometries using microcomputers. A listing of the computer program is provided.
A thorough investigation of the performance of broadband direct irradiance predictions using 21 solar radiation models, along with carefully measured radiation data and ancillary meteorological data, is detailed here. A sensitivity study and a detailed error analysis show that precipitable water, and even more so, turbidity, are the two most critical inputs, whose accuracy conditions the resulting uncertainty in irradiance predictions. Large prediction uncertainties result from the use of time/space interpolated or extrapolated data of precipitable water and turbidity. So that the results of performance assessment studies like this one can be of any significance, it is necessary to rely on highly accurate precipitable water and turbidity data from collocated instruments with an appropriate sampling rate. An experimental assessment of the performance of all models has been conducted, using nearly 5000 data points from five different sites covering a large range of geographical and climatic conditions. Direct irradiance measured with first-class instruments at these sites are compared to model predictions where precipitable water and turbidity are determined from collocated sunphotometric measurements. This experimental assessment is found to be less stringent than the theoretical assessment (in Part 1 of this investigation), while confirming its main results. The same four high-performance models as in Part 1 are finally recommended: CPCR2, MLWT2, REST and Yang (in alphabetical order). Remarkably, they can predict direct irradiance under a variety of atmospheric conditions within the uncertainty of modern and well-maintained pyrheliometers, provided that good quality inputs of precipitable water and turbidity are used. The MLWT2 model produces the best results, with the lowest bias and variance for any irradiance value.
An upgraded spectral radiation model called SMARTS2 (Simple Model of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer of Sunshine) is introduced. The solar shortwave direct beam irradiance is calculated from spectral transmittance functions for the main extinction processes in the cloudless atmosphere: Rayleigh scattering, aerosol extinction, and absorption by ozone, uniformly mixed gases, water vapor, and nitrogen dioxide. Temperature-dependent or pressure-dependent extinction coefficients have been developed for all these absorbing gases, based on recent spectroscopic data obtained either directly from the experimental literature or, in a preprocessed form, from MODTRAN, a state-of-the-art rigorous code. The NO2 extinction effect, in both the UV and visible, is introduced in detail for the first time in a simple spectral model by taking into account temperature-dependent absorption coefficients. Aerosol extinction is evaluated using a two-tier Ångström approach. Parameterizations of the wavelength exponents and single-scattering coefficient for different aerosol models (proposed by Shettle and Fenn, Braslau and Dave, and also in the Standard Radiation Atmosphere) are provided as a function of both wavelength and relative humidity. Moreover, aerosol turbidity can now be estimated from airport visibility data using a function based on the Shettle and Fenn aerosol model. SMARTS2 also has an optional circumsolar correction function and two filter smoothing functions which together allow the simulation of actual spectroradiometers. This facilitates comparison between modeled results and measured data. Preliminary performance assessment indicates that the direct-beam irradiance predicted by the proposed model compares well to published reference spectra obtained with rigorous radiative codes, and to measured spectroradiometric data.
REST2, a high-performance model to predict cloudless-sky broadband irradiance, illuminance and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) from atmospheric data, is presented. Its derivation uses the same two-band scheme as in the previous CPCR2 model, but with numerous improvements. Great attention is devoted to precisely account for the effect of aerosols, in particular.Detailed research-class measurements from Billings, OK are used to assess the performance of the model for the prediction of direct, diffuse and global broadband irradiance. These measurements were made in May 2003 during a sophisticated radiative closure experiment, which involved the best radiometric instrumentation currently available and many ancillary instruments. As a whole, these exceptional measurements constitute the only known modern benchmark dataset made specifically to test the intrinsic performance of radiation models. Using this dataset as reference, it is shown that REST2 performs better than CPCR2 for irradiance, illuminance or PAR predictions. The availability of the turbidity data required by REST2 or other similar models is also discussed, as well as the effect that turbidity has on each component of broadband irradiance, PAR irradiance and illuminance, and on the diffuse/global PAR ratio.
Simple solar spectral model for direct and diffuse irradiance on horizontal and tilted planes at the Earth’s surface for cloudless atmospheres
- Re Bird
- C Riordan