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Using Causal mapping: individual and group; traditional and new

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... Cognitive Mapping has been used extensively and not just in problem structur ing (Ackermann and Eden 2004 ;Bryson et al. 2004b) . The mapping technique, its use, attributes, and guidelines will be presented in the next section along with some exercises. ...
... Furthermore, the temptation to add our own links (which appear to be obvious and natural) is considerable -particularly as we want to make sense of the argument. See Eden and Ackermann (2004) for further discussion on mapping text. ...
... Another example is when commencing a project -spending time mapping out the objectives of the particular project, the issues and options can help clarify the situation. For further examples see Ackermann and Eden ( 2004 ) which provides examples of three different individual uses of mapping. ...
... Cognitive Mapping has been used extensively and not just in problem structur­ ing ( Ackermann and Eden 2004 ;Bryson et al. 2004b) . The mapping technique, its use, attributes, and guidelines will be presented in the next section along with some exercises. ...
... Furthermore, the temptation to add our own links (which appear to be obvious and natural) is considerable -particularly as we want to make sense of the argument. See Eden and Ackermann (2004) for further discussion on mapping text. ...
... Another example is when commencing a project -spending time mapping out the objectives of the particular project, the issues and options can help clarify the situation. For further examples see Ackermann and Eden ( 2004 ) which provides examples of three different individual uses of mapping. ...
... Cognitive Mapping has been used extensively and not just in problem structur ing (Ackermann and Eden 2004 ;Bryson et al. 2004b) . The mapping technique, its use, attributes, and guidelines will be presented in the next section along with some exercises. ...
... Furthermore, the temptation to add our own links (which appear to be obvious and natural) is considerable -particularly as we want to make sense of the argument. See Eden and Ackermann (2004) for further discussion on mapping text. ...
... Another example is when commencing a project -spending time mapping out the objectives of the particular project, the issues and options can help clarify the situation. For further examples see Ackermann and Eden ( 2004 ) which provides examples of three different individual uses of mapping. ...
... Identify variables X with high outdegree and Y with high indegree and construct an 'etiograph' to show all the multiple paths from one point to another; discuss how respondents might have influence over some variables. Ackermann and Eden (2004, 2011), Eden (1992 and Eden et al. (1979Eden et al. ( , 1992 Decision support and problem-solving in organisations. Maps are seen primarily as useful tools rather than research about reality. ...
... How to collect causal claims from which to draw causal maps? There are a wide variety of options, including indepth individual interviews (Ackermann and Eden, 2004), reuse of open-ended questions in structured surveys (Jackson and Trochim, 2002), literature reviews (in which 'sources' can be documents rather than individuals) and archival or secondary material within which pre-existing causal claims are already made (Copestake, 2020). Other approaches aim to build consensus by using structured collaborative processes, including Delphi studies and PSM (Penn and Barbrook-Johnson, 2019). ...
Preprint
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p> Evaluators are interested in capturing how things causally influence one another. They are also interested in capturing how stakeholders think things causally influence one another. Causal mapping, the collection, coding and visualisation of interconnected causal claims, has been used widely for several decades across many disciplines for this purpose. It makes the provenance or source of such claims explicit and provides tools for gathering and dealing with this kind of data, and for managing its Janus-like double-life: on the one hand providing information about what people believe causes what and on the other hand preparing this information for possible evaluative judgements about what actually causes what. Specific reference to causal mapping in the evaluation literature is sparse, which we aim to redress here. In particular we address the Janus dilemma by suggesting that causal maps can be understood neither as models of beliefs about causal pathways nor as models of causal pathways per se but as repositories of evidence for those pathways.</p
... Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) (Bedford & Cooke, 2001): Fault and event tree analysis (Ericson, 2015;Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, & Haasl, 1981), root cause analysis (Wilson, 1993), structured expert judgement (Bedford & Cooke, 2001), multivariate uncertainty modelling (Bedford & Cooke, 2001), Bow-Tie modelling (Ale et al., 2006) together with research in risk perception (Renn, Burns, Kasperson, Kasperson, & Slovic, 1992) Problem structuring (PSM or "soft OR") (Franco, 2006;Mingers & Rosenhead, 2004;Rosenhead, 2006): Cognitive mapping (Ackermann & Eden, 2006) in particular as used for mapping systemic risks (Ackermann, Howick, Quigley, Walls, & Houghton, 2014), causal loop diagrams (Morecroft, 2010) Scenario planning (SP) (Bradfield, Wright, Burt, Cairns, & Van Der Heijden, 2005): Intuitive logics (Van der Heijden, 2011) A more detailed list is provided in Section 4. The remainder of this paper is as follows. First (in Section 2), we define the variables of interest for a quantitative dependence elicitation before we present a way to elicit them for a common model that can capture tail dependence. ...
... Various methods, summarised under the umbrella of systems thinking in PSMs/ "soft OR" do this to try understanding a system holistically rather than through its separate parts. Common methods that identify feedback loops by graphical representation of influences are causal loop diagrams (Morecroft, 2010) and cognitive maps (Ackermann & Eden, 2006;Poplawska, Labib, & Reed, 2017). Both methods allow for a participatory approach to modelling complex problems (Cunha & Morais, 2016) and have been used in mixed-method approaches for analysing structures of systems (Lowe, Martingale, & Yearworth, 2016). ...
Article
In decision and risk analysis together with operational research methods, probabilistic modelling of uncertainties provides essential information for decision-makers. As uncertainties are typically not isolated and simplifying assumptions (such as independence) are often not justifiable, methods that model their dependence are being developed. A common challenge is that relevant historical data for specifying and quantifying a model are lacking. In this case, the dependence information should be elicited from experts. Guidance for eliciting dependence is sparse whereas particularly little research addresses the structuring of experts’ knowledge about dependence relationships prior to a quantitative elicitation. However, such preparation is crucial for developing confidence in the resulting judgements, mitigating biases and ensuring transparency, especially when assessing tail dependence. Therefore, we introduce a qualitative risk analysis method based on our definition of conditional scenarios that structures experts’ knowledge about (tail) dependence prior to its assessment. In an illustrative example, we show how to elicit conditional scenarios that support the assessment of a quantitative model for the complex risks of the UK higher education sector.
... phrontis.com, respectively) to elicit, understand and analyse the structure of complex systems of causality (Ackermann and Eden, 2004). These techniques were immediately appropriate to study causality in a project, and the use of system dynamics to produce quantitative results followed naturally. ...
... When taken in the context of system dynamics modelling experience it appeared to make sense to adopt it before the construction of the simulation model to quantify the impact of disruptions on project failure (Eden and Harris, 1976). Although used to model complex situations, it is important to note that this application of causal mapping was different to other more traditional uses in that it was predominantly forensic in focus (Ackermann and Eden, 2004). Mapping works through building up an extensive causal network (a large directed graph), comprising contributions (assertions, facts, options, events, issues, etc.) and their relationships, in the form of a 'means-end' structure. ...
Book
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Over the years there has been a shift in emphasis in research into project management, from focusing on the management of the individual project, to focusing on creating an environment in which projects can thrive. In the 1970s, the focus of project management research was on developing tools and techniques, particularly critical path analysis, but also earned value analysis. In the 1980s, the focus was on success factors on projects. Before you can choose appropriate tools to manage the project, you need to know what factors will influence success. In the 1990s, the focus switched to success criteria. Before you can chose appropriate success factors, and hence appropriate tools, you need to know how the project will be judged successful at the end, and have the entire team, indeed all the stakeholders, focusing on the same end objectives, both project outcomes and business benefits. This research led to a measured improvement in project performance, with success rates doubling for one third of projects to two thirds of projects, (and failure rates halving from two thirds to one third). Clearly the research of the last three decades of the 20th century made an important contribution to project performance, but it was not enough, it was not the whole story. Another part of the story is the context in which the project takes place. Senior management in the parent organization must ensure that they create an environment in which projects can thrive. They must govern the set of relationships between the management of projects taking place in the organization, the organization itself, themselves as client, and other stakeholders to ensure that projects can successfully deliver business benefit and help achieve corporate strategy. Project governance, governing that set of relationships, is not just the role of projects management; their role is primarily to successfully deliver project outputs. Senior management must create and govern the supportive project environment. Part of that environment is the management of knowledge. Many project-based organizations from both the high-tech and engineering industries recognize that their ability to deliver projects successfully gives them a competitive advantage. So being able to manage project management knowledge, to be able to remember how to deliver projects successfully and to improve that knowledge, is key to the organization’s success. But in project-based organizations, knowledge management is problematic, with new knowledge created on temporary projects and used on other projects. In the functional organization there is a classic three-step process of knowledge management: variation, selection, retention. New ideas are created in the function, successful ideas are chosen for reuse, and the knowledge stored within the function where it can be reused. In project-based organizations, new ideas are created on temporary projects, but the project cannot select and retain new ideas. Further, wherever those new ideas are stored, they are not immediately available to new projects. The project-based organization needs to think about how it is going to select new knowledge, where it is going to store it, and it needs to create a fourth step of knowledge management, distribution of knowledge to new projects. A book on knowledge management within project-based organizations is therefore a welcome addition to the literature. The book contains chapters by many recognized experts from the project management literature. It builds on a special issue of The International Journal of Project Management (Volume 21, Number 3, April 2003), which was edited by Peter Love. The book contains some revised papers, but also many new chapters by significant contributors to the field. It contains many important topics, such as the sharing of knowledge across boundaries, the creation of a learning environment in project-based firms, and learning from project failure. The book will be a valued addition to my library.Professor J Turner
... An established second best option is participant interviews close to the decision process. Compared with group sessions, this method supports data elicitation of greater subtlety and richness (Ackermann & Eden, 2004). ...
... As different methods for eliciting individuals' underlying mental models can trigger different cognitive processes, establishing an event timeline and then constructing question-theme maps was critical to ensuring the mental models we inferred were not artifacts of the production process (Hodgkinson & Healey, 2008). The question-theme maps were then used to support the next step of developing interview coding tables (Ackermann & Eden, 2004;Axelrod, 1976), informed by the internationalization domains framework outlined earlier (Eisenhardt, 1989). To ensure inter-rater reliability and construct validity, three researchers combined and recombined parent and child nodes for knowledge domains, elements and their relationships in a recursive process (based on extensive, shared memo writing), until construct and relationship agreement was established (Van de Ven & Poole, 2002). ...
Article
How do multinational enterprise (MNE) decision-makers think through and determine an internationalization decision? Despite the cognitive foundations of several key constructs, standard internationalization models do not explicitly incorporate managerial cognition. We argue the boundedly rational decision-maker is underspecified in IB models and this oversight contributes to weak empirical findings on experience and learning. Granted rare access to senior executives and board members engaged in a foreign direct investment (FDI) decision, we find a critical role for mental models and individuals’ experiences. We argue understanding these cognitive processes is crucial in modeling internationalization strategies and their performance.
... phrontis.com, respectively) to elicit, understand and analyse the structure of complex systems of causality (Ackermann and Eden, 2004). These techniques were immediately appropriate to study causality in a project, and the use of system dynamics to produce quantitative results followed naturally. ...
... When taken in the context of system dynamics modelling experience it appeared to make sense to adopt it before the construction of the simulation model to quantify the impact of disruptions on project failure (Eden and Harris, 1976). Although used to model complex situations, it is important to note that this application of causal mapping was different to other more traditional uses in that it was predominantly forensic in focus (Ackermann and Eden, 2004). Mapping works through building up an extensive causal network (a large directed graph), comprising contributions (assertions, facts, options, events, issues, etc.) and their relationships, in the form of a 'means-end' structure. ...
... An established second best option is participant interviews close to the decision process. Compared with group sessions, this method supports data elicitation of greater subtlety and richness (Ackermann & Eden, 2004). Case identification was based on intentional (theoretical) sampling (Siegglekow, 2007; Timmermans & Tavory, 2012). ...
... As different methods for eliciting individuals' underlying mental models can trigger different cognitive processes, establishing an event timeline and then constructing question-theme maps was critical to ensuring the mental models we inferred were not artifacts of the production process (Hodgkinson & Healey, 2008). The question-theme maps were then used to support the next step of developing interview coding tables (Ackermann & Eden, 2004; Axelrod, 1976), informed by the internationalization domains framework outlined earlier (Eisenhardt, 1989). To ensure inter-rater reliability and construct validity, three researchers combined and recombined parent and child nodes for knowledge domains, elements and their relationships in a recursive process (based on extensive, shared memo writing), until construct and relationship agreement was established (van de Ven & Poole, 2002). ...
Article
Full-text available
How do the senior decision-makers within a multinational enterprise (MNE) think through and determine an internationalization decision? Despite the cognitive foundations of several key constructs, standard internationalization models do not explicitly incorporate managerial cognition. We argue that the boundedly rational decision-maker is underspecified in international business models and this oversight contributes to weak empirical findings on experience, learning, internationalization strategy and MNE performance. Drawing on these extant models, we identify seven knowledge domains and interdependencies that may make up decision-makers’ mental models. Granted rare access to senior executives and board members engaged in a foreign direct investment decision, we find substantial heterogeneity in the mental models these indivi- duals used to make sense of the opportunity. This variance aligns with differences in individuals’ experience along four dimensions: international breadth, depth, diversity and prior strategic decision-making. We argue these cognitive pro- cesses – how individuals exercise judgment about information search para- meters, assessment and decision integration, and how decision teams coalesce in their thinking – are crucial microfoundations for modeling heterogeneity in firm-level internationalization strategies and performance.
... The detailed work of Majumder and Majumdar (2004) is the most recent evidence of fuzzy approaches being applied to complex systems modelling, wherein the researchers have attempted to rationalise fuzzy, probability and complexity science theories for the modelling of carcinogenetic and biocybernetic systems. Extending this concept along the lines of elucidating the interrelationships between components of social, economic, technical or other systems using the concept of cognitive or causal mapping (Ackermann and Eden, 2004; Axelrod, 1976; Montezemi and Conrath, 1986), has given rise to the technique of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) in this regard (Kosko, 1990; Kosko, 1991). FCMs represent variables of a dynamic system graphically, by links that signify cause and effect relationships, being augmented with fuzzy or multivalent weights, quantified via numbers, or words (Kosko, 1991 ). ...
... This is shown as the dotted line going back to the organisational imperatives, in terms of an organisational learning component. However, in applying this method of mapping to this situation highlights the fact that such a forensic approach to attempting to understand organisational and individual behaviours confers a post-hoc rationalisation (Ackermann and Eden, 2004, p.139). The application of a research methodology which would include the ability to verify and validate the modelled system would therefore be a requisite check on the efficacy of such a mapping approach taken. ...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose Noting the scarcity of complexity techniques applied to modelling social systems, this paper attempts to formulate a conceptual model of decision‐making behaviour within the information systems evaluation (ISE) task, against the backdrop of complexity theory. Design/methodology/approach Complexity theory places an emphasis on addressing how dynamic non‐linear systems can be represented and modelled utilising computational tools and techniques to draw out inherent system dynamics. In doing so, the use of fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) and morphological analysis (MA) (hence a fuzzy‐morphological approach), is applied to empirical case study data, to elucidate the inherent behavioural and systems issues involved in ISE decision making within a British manufacturing organisation. Findings The paper presents results of applying a combined FCM and MA approach to modelling complexity within management decision making in the ISE task: both in terms of a cognitive map of the key decision criteria; a matrix of constraint criteria; and a synthesised model that provides an indication of the linkages between technology management factors and organisational imperatives and goals. These findings show the usefulness of viewing the topic in complexity science terms (emergent behaviour, non‐linearity and chaotic response). Research limitations/implications This research is limited in applying the given technique to a single case study organisation in the UK manufacturing sector, where the sample size is limited. Since this is the first time that such a combined MA‐FCM technique has been used in this field known to the authors, future research needs to validate and explore the implications of this approach in a wider context (multiple organisations and viewpoints). Practical implications The paper highlights the need for those involved in analysing managerial decision making to include aspects of complexity theory in their evaluations – namely uncovering inherent inter‐relationships that may exist between stakeholders, processes and systems. In doing so, expanding the manager's understanding of how to achieve congruence between driving forces and factors, which may exhibit non‐linear, chaotic or feedback behaviour. Originality/value The given research brings together both artificial intelligence and operational research techniques, applied in the socio‐technical milieu of information systems evaluation, within the context of complexity theory, in order to describe the rich detail within the ISE decision‐making task.
... The maps can be analysed to identify patterns and lines of reasoning. Overall causal mapping is a powerful technique to help in the understanding of complex phenomena and enabling informed decision-making and action Ackermann, 2001, 2004;Bryson et al., 2004Bryson et al., , 2023Ackermann and Eden, 2004). ...
... How to collect causal claims from which to draw causal maps? There are a wide variety of options, including in-depth individual interviews (Ackermann and Eden, 2004), reuse of openended questions in structured surveys (Jackson and Trochim, 2002), literature reviews (in which 'sources' can be documents rather than individuals) and archival or secondary material within which pre-existing causal claims are already made (Copestake, 2020). Other approaches aim to build consensus by using structured collaborative processes, including Delphi studies and PSM (Penn and Barbrook-Johnson, 2019). ...
Article
Full-text available
Evaluators are interested in capturing how things causally influence one another. They are also interested in capturing how stakeholders think things causally influence one another. Causal mapping – the collection, coding and visualisation of interconnected causal claims – has been used widely for several decades across many disciplines for this purpose. It makes the provenance or source of such claims explicit and provides tools for gathering and dealing with this kind of data and for managing its Janus-like double-life: on the one hand, providing information about what people believe causes what, and on the other hand, preparing this information for possible evaluative judgements about what causes what. Specific reference to causal mapping in the evaluation literature is sparse, which we aim to redress here. In particular, the authors address the Janus dilemma by suggesting that causal maps can be understood neither as models of beliefs about causal pathways nor as models of causal pathways per se but as repositories of evidence for those pathways.
... How to collect causal claims from which to draw causal maps? There are a wide variety of options, including in-depth individual interviews (Ackermann and Eden, 2004), reuse of open-ended questions in structured surveys (Jackson and Trochim, 2002), literature reviews (in which 'sources' can be documents rather than individuals) and archival or secondary material within which pre-existing causal claims are already made (Copestake, 2020b). Other approaches aim to build consensus by using structured collaborative processes, including Delphi studies and participatory systems mapping (Penn and Barbrook-Johnson, 2019). ...
Preprint
Full-text available
p> Evaluators are interested in capturing how things causally influence one another. They are also interested in capturing how stakeholders think things causally influence one another. Causal mapping, the collection, coding and visualisation of interconnected causal claims, has been used widely for several decades across many disciplines for this purpose. It makes the provenance or source of such claims explicit and provides tools for gathering and dealing with this kind of data, and for managing its Janus-like double-life: on the one hand providing information about what people believe causes what and on the other hand preparing this information for possible evaluative judgements about what actually causes what. Specific reference to causal mapping in the evaluation literature is sparse, which we aim to redress here. In particular we address the Janus dilemma by suggesting that causal maps can be understood neither as models of beliefs about causal pathways nor as models of causal pathways per se but as repositories of evidence for those pathways.</p
... Constructing and testing theories (including theories of change and middle-range theories) is increasingly recognized as central to any evaluation that aims to find out how an intervention worked, and to generalize from the findings. 'Causal mapping' (Ackermann & Eden, 2004;Axelrod, 2015;Eden et al., 1992;Laukkanen, 1994;Nadkarni & Shenoy, 2004) has been used quite widely for several decades across a variety of disciplines and fields and provides very useful tools for these tasks. In particular, it has been frequently used in the field of strategic management to not only map but also inform strategic management decision-making (Buckley, 2018;Hodgkinson et al., 2004;Huff, 1990;Laukkanen, 1994). ...
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What do the intended beneficiaries of international development programmes think about the causal drivers of change in their livelihoods and lives? Do their perceptions match up with the theories of change constructed by organizations trying to support them? This case study looks at an entrepreneurship programme aiming to economically empower rural women smallholders in Ghana. The programme provided a combination of financial services, training and peer support to improve the women’s productivity, and purchase and sale options. It was implemented by two Ghanian savings and credit organizations, Opportunity International Savings and Loans, and Sinapi Aba Savings and Loans, with support from the development organization Opportunity International UK (OIUK). We report on a mid-term qualitative evaluation of the programme that used the Qualitative Impact Protocol (QuIP) to gather stories of change directly from the programme participants. These stories were coded, analysed and visualized using a web application called Causal Map.
... Given the prominence of seaborne trade the development of port capacity to serve cargo trade is widely recognised as a critical determinant of the ability of regions to trade internationally. 1 It is of national strategic importance that capacity is developed in a timely and appropriate fashion to avoid excessive under (leading to congestion) or over (leading to waste of resources) capacity [37]. 2 The provision of port capacity depends on timely and appropriate port development, which in turn relies on the appropriate management of port operations and infrastructure. Port Authorities (PAs) are most often the bodies responsible for strategic planning of port infrastructure [58]. ...
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This article examines the strategic factors influencing how Port Authorities (PAs) make decisions concerning investment to ensure capacity supply in the long term. Rooted in the strategic management literature, we draw upon the capabilities perspective to investigate what critical operational capabilities PAs require to achieve performance and the strategic factors influencing the choice of critical capability development to ensure the long-term capacity supply across different port contexts. Link to full article: https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1gcad,714Mqyj7
... The qualitative cognitive maps and /or project cause map aim to capture the key events that occurred on the project, for example a delay as noted above in the vessel example in Project 2. The process of initial elicitation of these events Delay and Disruption in Complex Projects, Figure 3 The Cascade Model Building Process can be achieved in two ways. One option is to interview, and construct cognitive maps [39,40,41] for each participant's views. Here the aim is to gain a deep and rich understanding that taps the wealth of knowledge of each individual. ...
... The qualitative cognitive maps and /or project cause map aim to capture the key events that occurred on the project, for example a delay as noted above in the vessel example in Project 2. The process of initial elicitation of these events Delay and Disruption in Complex Projects, Figure 3 The Cascade Model Building Process can be achieved in two ways. One option is to interview, and construct cognitive maps [39,40,41] for each participant's views. Here the aim is to gain a deep and rich understanding that taps the wealth of knowledge of each individual. ...
... When taken in the context of SD modelling experience ( Eden and Harris 1976), it appeared to make sense to adopt it prior to the construction of the simulation model constructed to quantify the impact of disruptions on project failure. However, although being used to model complex situations, it is important to note that this application of causal mapping was different to other more traditional uses in that it was predominantly forensic in focus ( Ackermann and Eden, 2004). Mapping works through building up an extensive causal network (a large directed graph), comprising contributions (assertions, facts, options, events, issues etc) and their relationships, in the form of a 'means-end' structure. ...
... (i) Interview transcripts will be read in full, allowing annotation, to enable familiarisation with each interview as a whole; (ii) initial segmentation of the data into the categories of noticing, framing, practice selection and interviewee role conception (and/or others as identified); (iii) searching for themes within and across the initial categories; (iv) fourth, an assessment and coding by the researcher of the framing of each strategic challenge as meeting the characteristics of being framed as tame, wicked or a combination of the two; (v) a comparison of the patterns of framing, practice selection and underlying role conception across the stage (iv) codes; and (vi) final review of coding and definition of themes. The development of individual cognitive maps may also be explored in phase (v) if the patterns are found to be too complex to be analysed in tabular form (Ackermann andEden, 2004, Grbich, 2007). ...
Conference Paper
This study applies a strategy-as-practice lens to the everyday practices of public managers, examining their responses to tame and wicked problems and exploring how those practices are enabled or constrained by dominant logics and prevailing structures. The concept of ‘wicked problems’ has matured in the public policy field over the past forty years, but the field of strategic public management is taking longer to grapple with its implications. Building on Rittel and Webber’s (1973) seminal work, scholars have recently sought to define wicked problems for the twenty-first century: they are unstructured, cross-cutting, overlapping and relentless (Weber and Khademian, 2008), intractable, politically and socially constructed (Newman and Head, 2014) characterised by complexity, disputation and discontinuity (Head and Alford, 2015; Roberts, 2000). As such, wicked problems pose a direct challenge to traditional strategic management by breaching both organisational boundaries and the hegemony of rational-scientific managerialism, demanding that attention be paid to values and emotions too. In the literature, wicked problems are often placed on the opposite end of a spectrum to tame problems, which are characterised as solvable via management techniques. For public managers are expectations that they tackle wicked problems however come in addition to expectations of managerial competence. Public managers are encouraged to be adaptive - to adopt different practices contingent on the characteristics of the challenge faced (Wise, 2006; Pedersen and Hartley, 2008; Grint, 2005; Heifetz, 1994). But do public managers in fact adapt their strategy practices in response to the nature of a problem? How? This study examines the situated, contingent strategy practices of public managers in the United Arab Emirates through semi-structured interviews with 30 to 40 senior government managers (department heads and above). Analysis will focus on public managers’ role interpretations, problem framing and the mapping of problems-as-framed to strategy practices. Then, factors influencing these will be discussed, with particular attention paid to dominant logics and prevailing structures. The study affords multiple contributions to knowledge. In particular, it offers insight into important strategising activities in government that occur outside formal strategy processes, and does so within the unique context of UAE government. References: GRINT, K. 2005. Problems, problems, problems: the social construction of 'leadership'. Human Relations, 58, 1467-1494. HEAD, B. W. & ALFORD, J. 2015. Wicked Problems Implications for Public Policy and Management. Administration & Society, 47, 711-739. HEIFETZ, R. A. 1994. Leadership Without Easy Answers, Cambridge, Harvard University Press. 1 NEWMAN, J. & HEAD, B. 2014. Perceptions of Wickedness: The Spatial Dimensions of Wicked Policy Problems. PEDERSEN, D. & HARTLEY, J. 2008. The changing context of public leadership and management: Implications for roles and dynamics. International Journal of Public Sector Management, 21, 327-339. RITTEL, H. W. J. & WEBBER, M. M. 1973. Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning. Policy Sciences, 4, 155-169. ROBERTS, N. 2000. Wicked problems and network approaches to resolution. International public management review, 1, 1-19. WEBER, E. P. & KHADEMIAN, A. M. 2008. Wicked problems, knowledge challenges, and collaborative capacity builders in network settings. Public administration review, 68, 334-349. WISE, C. R. 2006. Organizing for homeland security after Katrina: is adaptive management what’s missing? Public Administration Review, 66, 302-318.
... The qualitative cognitive maps and /or project cause map aim to capture the key events that occurred on the project, for example a delay as noted above in the vessel example in Project 2. The process of initial elicitation of these events Delay and Disruption in Complex Projects, Figure 3 The Cascade Model Building Process can be achieved in two ways. One option is to interview, and construct cognitive maps [39,40,41] for each participant's views. Here the aim is to gain a deep and rich understanding that taps the wealth of knowledge of each individual. ...
... Building on insights from complexity theory, systems thinking and Axelrod's work into concept mapping, recent advances in this direction include insights into the systemic structure and complexity of theory (Wallis 2010a), policy (Wallis 2011) and ethics (Wallis 2010c). Others engaging in similar studies have quantified the complexity and systemicity of conceptual systems for learning (Curseu et al. 2010), studies of integrative complexity to support cognitive processes and management strategy (Tetlock 1985), narrative analysis (Greenhalgh et al. 2005), program evaluation (Rogers 2008), and casual mapping for organizational change (Ackermann and Eden 2004). ...
Article
When creating theory to understand or implement change at the social and/or organizational level, it is generally accepted that part of the theory building process includes a process of abstraction. While the process of abstraction is well understood, it is not so well understood how abstractions “fit” together to enable the creation of better theory. Starting with a few simple ideas, this paper explores one way we work with abstractions. This exploration challenges the traditionally held importance of abstracting concepts from experience. That traditional focus has been one-sided—pushing science toward the discovery of data without the balancing process that occurs with the integration of the data. Without such balance, the sciences have been pushed toward fragmentation. Instead, in the present paper, new emphasis is placed on the relationship between abstract concepts. Specifically, this paper suggests that a better theory is one that is constructed of concepts that exist on a similar level of abstraction. Suggestions are made for quantifying this claim and using the insights to enable scholars and practitioners to create more effective theory.
... The application of mapping, while being more traditional in its use (many of the benefits posited here apply to the many other applications of mapping; see Ackermann & Eden, 2004, for a view on where mapping has been used), has only relatively recently been applied in the area of information systems and is demonstrating that it is an apposite research method (for an example, see the recent book by Narayanan & Armstrong, 2005). The role of moving up and down to elicit values and goals along with issues, assertions, and concerns helps tease out the subconscious knowledge and views enabling them to be explored and managed. ...
... Other applications of cognitive mapping include using congregate cognitive maps to represent social systems in which individuals' perceptions of the system are mostly idiosyncratic and not shared (Bougon 1992) and using comparative causal mapping to model actual systems and people's understanding of systems (Laukkanen 1998). Detailed descriptions of cognitive mapping techniques are offered by Ackermann and Eden (2004), Bougon (1992), Bryson et al. (2004), Eden (2004), Eden andAckermann (1998, 2001a,b), and Laukkanen (1998). Huff (1990), Nelson et al. (2000), as well as Narayanan and Armstrong (2005) discuss the range of mapping techniques available and how they have been used. ...
Article
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Cognitive mapping has been used to support strategic planning in business. However, the process has seldom been utilized to support strategic planning in nonprofit public organizations, where many reporting lines are less clear. This paper describes how the cognitive mapping process was designed and implemented to help a large academic department identify and merge the individual goals of faculty members as a first step in creating a strategic plan. Each map was created using the Decision ExplorerTM software during individual interviews, as opposed to using paper and pencil. An action case approach was used to plan and evaluate individual mapping sessions. Eliciting individual cognitive maps led to greater engagement by faculty in the strategic planning process. Nearly all of the participating faculty members believed that the cognitive mapping process was helpful and insightful and the resulting map was accurate and complete.
... The process of initial elicitation can be achieved in two ways. One option is to interview, and build cognitive maps (Eden, 1988;Ackermann and Eden, 2004) for each participants views. Thus the aim is to gain a deep and rich understanding that taps the wealth of knowledge of each individual. ...
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... In this paper, we focus on the latter type, and to stress the subjective nature of its representation we refer to them as ICMs (Eden and Ackermann, 1998). Several types of ICM, have been proposed (see Huff and Jenkins, 2002, for a review of different approaches), each with its own theoretical underpinnings, purpose and coding rules ( Ackermann and Eden, 2004). ...
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This paper proposes a tool for multi-criteria decision aid to be referred to as a Reasoning Map. It is motivated by a desire to provide an integrated approach to problem structuring and evaluation, and in particular, to make the transition between these two processes a natural and seamless progression. The approach has two phases. In the first one, the building of a Reasoning Map supports problem structuring, capturing a decision maker's reasoning as a network of means and ends concepts. In the second phase, this map is enhanced, employing a user-defined qualitative scale to measure both performances of decision options and strengths of influence for each means–end link. This latter phase supports the decision maker in evaluating the positive and negative impacts of an action through synthesis of the qualitative information. A case study, which investigates the use of the method in practice, is also presented.
... In a group interview the researcher acts as facilitator and manager of the discussion (Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill 2000: 268). Focus group techniques have been noted above as an important method for testing and improving the mental models of engineering asset procurement systems developed from initial sets of interviews (Ackermann and Eden 2004). The sample size of focus groups would be four to six groups per case study, with 7 to 10 people per group. ...
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This paper examines stakeholders’ preferences concerning diversification of small scale fishery activities, which has become a necessity for many small-scale fishermen in order to provide additional sources of income, as their income is often inadequate. It’s looks at participatory modelling as a potential tool to enhance mutual understanding and legitimacy. Fisheries stakeholders and those with an indirect interest in diversification of their activities were invited to participate in the process of framing the management problem and to give input and evaluate the scientific models that are used to provide suggestions to decision makers. We followed a number of different strategies to investigate the role of participatory knowledge development. The study empirically integrates the traditional models of multicriteria decision aid approach with the deliberative mapping perspective. We conclude that participatory modelling has the potential to facilitate and structure the deliberative process within a dialogue between scientists and stakeholders about uncertainties and the quality of the knowledge base. It can also contribute to collec- tive learning, increase legitimacy, and advance scientific understanding.
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Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) enables a group or individual to construct a graphical representation (map) of a problematic situation, and thus explore options and their ramifications with respect to a complex system of goals or objectives. In addition the approach aims to help groups arrive at a negotiated agreement about how to act to resolve the situation. It is based upon the use of causal mapping – a formally constructed means-ends network. Because the map has been constructed using the natural language of the problem owners it becomes a model of the situation that is ‘owned’ by those who define the problem. The use of formalities for the construction of the model makes it amenable to a range of analyses encouraging reflection and a deeper understanding. These analyses can be used in a ‘rough and ready’ manner by visual inspection or through the use of specialist causal mapping software. Each of the analyses helps a group or individual discover important features of the problem situation, and these features facilitate agreeing a good solution. The SODA process is aimed at helping a group learn about the situation they face before they reach agreements. Most significantly the exploration through the causal map leads to a higher probability of more creative solutions and promotes solutions that are more likely to be implemented because the problem construction process is more likely to include richer social dimensions about the blockages to action and organizational change. The basic theories that inform SODA derive from cognitive psychology and social negotiation, where the model acts as a continuously changing representation of the problematic situation (a transitional object) – changing as the views of a person or group shift through learning and exploration. This chapter, jointly written by two leading practitioner academics and the original developers of SODA, Colin Eden and Fran Ackermann, describe the SODA approach as it is applied in practice.
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With regard to competitive advantage complexity and specific characteristics of high tech industries, in this research by a cognitive mapping methodology we develop a qualitative model for interpreting the competitive advantage in company level for high tech industries. In first, after describing the research problem, we present a comparative review of four recent theories of firm and competitive advantage that has been applied by different researchers in the high tech and knowledge intensive organization filed. In second, with a detailed review of literature and previous research, an initial research framework has been proposed, and applied research method for it. Different tools and techniques from cognitive mapping and social network analysis have been used in developing a qualitative model for competitive advantage. The main and final section of paper assigned to describing the result of research in different steps of qualitative modeling process.
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Thesis
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Esta tese consiste em um estudo realizado na área de apoio multicritério à decisão (Multicriteria Decision Aiding - MCDA), com o objetivo de propor, testar e aperfeiçoar um Modelo de Implementação do apoio à decisão individual e em grupo com o uso do sistema VIP Analysis (Variable Interdependent Parameters Analysis). Este modelo orienta como utilizar este sistema e recomenda o uso de mapas cognitivos como método de estruturação dos problemas de decisão (Problem Structure Method - PSM) e o Modelo Aditivo da Teoria da Utilidade Multiatributo (Multiatribute Utility Theory – MAUT) como metodologia de elaboração de funções aditivas de valor. Para testar e aperfeiçoar este modelo foram realizadas intervenções em três organizações que enfrentavam problemas de decisão do tipo escolha/seleção, em que havia um mecanismo de compensação entre os critérios analisados e alternativas comparáveis entre si, tipos de problemas admitidos para análise através deste sistema de apoio à decisão. Para garantir uma melhor análise do modelo proposto, foram selecionados problemas com diferentes tipos de variáveis (qualitativas e quantitativas) e diferentes formas de estruturação (mapa cognitivo individual, mapa cognitivo único para um grupo e mapa cognitivo congregado a partir de mapas cognitivos individuais de membros de um grupo). Os processos de investigação e de resolução dos problemas de decisão destas organizações foram conduzidos através do método Action Research (AR), que viabilizou o aperfeiçoamento do modelo inicialmente proposto, possibilitando a estas instituições a utilização de uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão e permitindo à investigadora aprofundar seus conhecimentos através de sua atuação como facilitadora nestas intervenções. viii Este método foi utilizado neste estudo porque muitos autores têm discutido o futuro das metodologias de MCDA e recomendada sua utilização como uma alternativa adequada para implementar as metodologias MCDA, pois possibilita a investigação sistemática de um ou mais temas ao mesmo tempo em que são desenvolvidas as intervenções realizadas nas organizações. Ou seja, utilizando o método Action Research, o investigador pode contribuir para a mudança no sistema social das organizações estudadas, pois é admitida sua atuação como ator neste processo, ao mesmo tempo em que investiga o impacto destas mudanças e gera conhecimento com base nas mesmas. Neste trabalho, os problemas investigados foram tratados numa abordagem construtivista (especialmente no que diz respeito à utilização dos métodos e técnicas selecionados), que considera os aspectos subjetivos que os envolvem e viabiliza o aprendizado dos atores durante todas as fases do processo de apoio à decisão. Espera-se que os relatos destas três intervenções, assim como também suas conclusões, possam suscitar melhorias para o sistema VIP Analysis e prover aos usuários deste software um modelo de implementação previamente testado do processo de apoio à decisão individual e em grupo que utilize esta ferramenta, facilitando também com isto a sua utilização.
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Heuristics have long been associated with problems of bias and framing error, often on the basis of simulation and laboratory studies. In this field study of a high-stakes strategic decision, we explore an alternative view that heuristics may serve as powerful cognitive tools that enable, rather than limit, decision-making in dynamic and uncertain environments. We examine the cognitive efforts of senior decision-makers of an inexperienced multinational, as they assessed a potential acquisition in a politically hazardous African country. They applied a diversity of heuristics, some with clear building block rules, to build small world representations of this very uncertain strategic context. More expert individuals drew on experiential learning to build richer representations of the political hazard environment.
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Project Risk Registers have been used extensively for many years. However, they do not account for the interaction between risks, for example, the occurrence of one risk exacerbating other risks or portfolios of risks being more significant than the sum of the individual risks. This leads to the need to consider 'risk systemicity' as a part of risk analysis. This paper reports on a specific case for a large multinational project based organization, one that the authors had been involved with in the analysis of a number of projects that had massive cost overruns. Following these analyses the organization was persuaded of the importance of risk systemicity. The organization therefore engaged the authors to develop a 'Risk Filter'. This filter is a tool for identifying areas of risk exposure on future projects and creating a framework for their investigation. The 'Risk Filter' is now used on all projects ever since its introduction; by the end of May 2003 it had been used by nine divisions, on over 60 major projects, and completed by 450 respondents. It is also used at several stages during the life of a project to aid in the risk assessment and management of each project, and contributes to a project database.
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Concept maps and expert systems are both in the soft toolbar of knowledge modelling. We have spent nearly two de-cades developing our expert system shell "Doctus". Several years ago we have seen the first concept mapping solutions and started using them very soon. Frequently we have found ourselves using both tools in a particular research or consultancy project and started to wander how the two could be combined to achieve synergies. We came up with several ideas, typically when we have faced a situation which called for one of the potential synergies. In this paper we present the first of these ideas in elabo-rated form of a conceptual model and we also mention few additional ideas as our plans for future research. In this first idea we combine different kinds of concept maps and our expert system in order to map organisational knowledge. The expert system here is used in machine learning mode, i.e. the resulting concept map will be capable of learning – this is our intelligent concept map.
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Chapter
This paper aims to propose the adoption of qualitative system dynamics frameworks in order to improve the so called “second generation” performance measurement models with regards to the social and environmental dimensions of business performance. The said models address the issue of connecting financial and non financial indicators by using strategy or success maps. Some authors suggested the use of system dynamics approaches to improve them by taking into account the dynamic nature of performance and the transformation processes linking objectives and resources. Based on a system thinking approach this paper specifically focuses on the performance measurement of sustainability, suggesting the adoption of qualitative system dynamic frameworks in order to better identify objectives and in support of a correct process of selection of indicators.
Chapter
Glossary Definition of the Subject Introduction Disruption and Delay Analyzing D&D and Project Behavior Cascade Model Building Process Implications for Development Future Directions Bibliography
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Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) enables a group or individual to construct a graphical representation of a problematic situation, and thus explore options and their ramifications with respect to a complex system of goals or objectives. In addition the method aims to help groups arrive at a negotiated agreement about how to act to resolve the situation. It is based upon the use of causal mapping – a formally constructed means-ends network – as representation form. Because the picture has been constructed using the natural language of the problem owners it becomes a model of the situation that is ‘owned’ by those who define the problem. The use of formalities for the construction of the model makes it amenable to a range of analyses as well as encouraging reflection and a deeper understanding. These analyses can be used in a ‘rough and ready’ manner by visual inspection or through the use of specialist causal mapping software (Decision Explorer). Each of the analyses helps a group or individual discover important features of the problem situation, and these features facilitate agreeing agood solution. The SODA process is aimed at helping a group learn about the situation they face before they reach agreements. Most significantly the exploration through the causal map leads to a higher probability of more creative solutions and promotes solutions that are more likely to be implemented because the problem construction process is wider and more likely to include richer social dimensions about the blockages to action and organizational change. The basic theories that inform SODA derive from cognitive psychology and social negotiation, where the model acts as a continuously changing representation of the problematic situation – changing as the views of a person or group shift through learning and exploration. This chapter, jointly written by two leading practitioner academics and the original developers of SODA, Colin Eden and Fran Ackermann, describes the SODA techniques as they are applied in practice.
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Increasingly, maps developed in the field of system dynamics (SD) are combined with other mapping techniques. This has produced successful results; occasionally such experiments have ended in disappointment. Certain similarities between a variety of mapping techniques encourage experimentation. At the same time, these very similarities sometimes confuse clients and students with respect to the distinct differences between the methods supported by the various techniques. Confusion as to the purpose of a certain type of map relates to confusion about the use of mapping tools, down to individual symbols: what does the arrow mean in one map or another? This paper therefore attempts to explore the specific contribution that SD mapping can make and the potential usefulness of combining it with elements from other fields. The paper considers views from within the field of SD on the purpose of maps, their strengths and limitations. It shows how the prime purpose of maps within SD is the elucidation of the link between structure and behaviour but that the usage of maps with this purpose has changed since the field's beginning. The paper also explores a sample of other mapping techniques in their contexts, their distinctive nature as well as the similarities with SD mapping. The conclusion is that a complementarist attitude built on a clear acknowledgement of the distinct prime purpose of each approach and the distinct contribution that each tool was crafted to make offers many creative possibilities.
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In a world of increasing complexity, instant information availability and constant flux, systems approaches provide the opportunity of a tangible anchor of purpose and iterative learning. The five approaches outlined in the book offer a range of interchangeable tools with rigorous frameworks of application tried and tested in the ‘real world’. The frameworks of each approach form a powerful toolkit to explore the dynamics of how societies emerge, how organisations create viability, how to facilitate chains of argument through causal mapping, how to embrace a multiplicity of perspectives identifying purposeful activity and how to look for the bigger picture across multiple disciplines. Systems Approaches offers an excellent first introduction for those seeking to understand what ‘systems thinking’ is all about as well as why the tools discussed herein should be applied to management and professional practice. This book provides a practical guide, and the chapters stand alone in explaining and developing each approach.
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The idea that small disruptions and delays can cause serious consequences to the life of a major project, well beyond that which might be easily attributed to their direct impact, is well established. Nevertheless, the nature of this 'delay and disruption' is still not fully understood. This paper discusses some of the issues and difficulties in gaining a full understanding. In particular it presents the variety of ways in which disruptions occur, and the variety of consequences that may unfold. It also focuses attention on a number of issues that arise when 'normal' methods of analysis of complex projects might be used, for example, the analysis and costing of change orders and the use of network analysis. The role of dynamic feedback and the 'portfolio effect' is introduced, particularly with reference to project acceleration and changing productivity.
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Increasingly, thoughtful managers recognize the role of knowledge and learning in corporate action and performance. Concurrently, a new field, management and organization cognition (MOC), has emerged producing useful insights and findings. Thus far, empirical studies have largely focused on single cases or actors, using often archival data and sometimes ambiguous methods. To advance the field will require pragmatic tools for eliciting data on thinking in real organizations and for conducting rigorous and more comparative studies of management and organization cognitions. This paper describes a method for comparatively studying real-life managerial thinking, defined here as the respective manager's beliefs about key phenomena and their efficacy links in their strategic and operative situation. The applicability of such a definition will depend on the requirements of research at hand. The payoff is that, thus defined, key elements in managerial and organizational cognitions can be usefully captured by cognitive mapping, an established approach in MOC research. The approach contains, first, a method for eliciting comparison-enabling interview data of several subjects. Then, using researcher-based, interpretive standardization of the individual natural discourses, databases of standard concepts and causal links, constituting the cause map elements, are distilled. This facilitates a text-oriented description of the thinking patterns of single actors like managers or organizational groups, which can be used in traditional-type mapping studies, which typically assume unitary or quasi-unitary actors. However, the method is intended for comparative analyses, e.g., for pinpointing the cognitive differences or similarities across organizational actors or for constructing and comparing groups, assumed cognitively homogenous. Also, it is applicable for longitudinal studies or aggregated, e.g., industry-level, descriptions of MOC. A PC application is available for the technique, although many of the processing tasks are amenable to general-purpose relational database software. The paper presents a study case comparing the cognitive structures of managers in two interrelated industries in terms of their concept bases and causal beliefs. The objective was to understand the substance of management thinking, as well as the formative logic behind how managers come to think in the shared ways. It is shown that patterns of industry-typical core causal thinking, manifestations of a dominant logic or recipe, can be located, operationalized and comparatively analyzed with this method. Substantively, the contents of management thinking are typically products of complex long-term mechanisms. These consist, first, of organizational problem-solving, recurrently facing a specific, adequately stable constellation of strategic tasks and environment elements, similar within industries and systematically different across them, and, second, of various social processes, which directly transfer and influence management thinking. The paper concludes with discussing the cause mapping method and suggests some options for further studies.
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Recent ‘models’ of public management see strategy as providing a broad direction, or framework, within which learning and responsiveness are encouraged. Strategic direction is deliberately designed and yet is expected to emerge through the ‘routine’ decision‐making activity of managers at all levels in the organization. In this article, an approach to managing strategy development, review and renewal in public service organizations is proposed, and methods for testing it are described. The work was developed and tested over three years with the Director General of the Prison Service of England and Wales and with senior managers responsible for developing strategy in other public service organizations.
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Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) enables a group or individual to construct a graphical representation of a problematic situation, and thus explore options and their ramifications with respect to a complex system of goals or objectives. In addition the method aims to help groups arrive at a negotiated agreement about how to act to resolve the situation. It is based upon the use of causal mapping – a formally constructed means-ends network – as representation form. Because the picture has been constructed using the natural language of the problem owners it becomes a model of the situation that is ‘owned’ by those who define the problem. The use of formalities for the construction of the model makes it amenable to a range of analyses as well as encouraging reflection and a deeper understanding. These analyses can be used in a ‘rough and ready’ manner by visual inspection or through the use of specialist causal mapping software (Decision Explorer). Each of the analyses helps a group or individual discover important features of the problem situation, and these features facilitate agreeing agood solution. The SODA process is aimed at helping a group learn about the situation they face before they reach agreements. Most significantly the exploration through the causal map leads to a higher probability of more creative solutions and promotes solutions that are more likely to be implemented because the problem construction process is wider and more likely to include richer social dimensions about the blockages to action and organizational change. The basic theories that inform SODA derive from cognitive psychology and social negotiation, where the model acts as a continuously changing representation of the problematic situation – changing as the views of a person or group shift through learning and exploration. This chapter, jointly written by two leading practitioner academics and the original developers of SODA, Colin Eden and Fran Ackermann, describes the SODA techniques as they are applied in practice.
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Problem-structuring techniques are an integral aspect of 'Soft-OR'. SSM, SAST, Strategic Choice, and JOURNEY Making, all depend for their success on a group developing a shared view of a problem through some form of explicit modelling. The negotiated problem structure becomes the basis for problem resolution. Implicit to this process is an assumption that members of the group share and build their knowledge about the problem domain. This paper explores the extent to which this assumption is reasonable. The research is based on detailed records from the use of JOURNEY Making, where it has used special purpose Group Support software to aid the group problem structuring. This software continuously tracks the contributions of each member of the group and thus the extent to which they appear to be 'connecting' and augmenting their own knowledge with that of other members of the group. Software records of problem resolution in real organisational settings are used to explore the sharing of knowledge among senior managers. These explorations suggest a typology of knowledge sharing. The implications of this typology for problem structuring and an agenda for future research are considered.
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A form of “drawing” helps build understanding and recall for relating ideas in texts.
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Work in the field of multiple criteria analysis has generally focused on evaluation procedures, taking as its starting point a well-defined problem with specified alternatives and criteria. However, in reality, problems are rarely so well-structured; hence, in order to usefully support decision making in practice, multiple criteria analysts need to address the issue of problem structuring. In this respect, much can be learned from the body of work stemming from operational research and systems in the U.K., known collectively as problem-structuring methods. In this paper we describe a study which sought to integrate one of these approaches, SODA (strategic options development and analysis), using the COPE software for cognitive mapping, with multiple criteria evaluation based on a multi-attribute value function using V·I·S·A. The study took the form of a 2 day action research workshop to explore the strategic direction of the Supplies and Commercial Services Department of a large U.K. NHS Hospital Trust and to develop an action plan consistent with the agreed direction. Even though the workshop was intended to be exploratory, from the point of view of both the facilitators and the participants, it enabled the group to make progress towards the definition of a strategic direction and led to an increased understanding and awareness of the issues. Drawing on this experience, we comment in general on the potential benefits arising from the integration of these two approaches and suggest fruitful areas for future research and development of the software tools and associated methodologies.
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Building models directly with client groups has become increasingly common in the field of system dynamics. For the past nine years, the modeling group at the University at Albany has been experimenting with techniques handling the complex modeling and facilitation processes involved in group work. This article extends the previously reported work by discussing specific scripted techniques used to implement the group modeling building approach. The authors' purpose is to initiate a larger discussion of shared scripts and techniques for group model building. The discussion is divided into planning for a group model building conference, scheduling the day, particular scripts and techniques for various group model building tasks, and closing a group modeling conference.
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This paper concerns the facilitation of working groups whose general aims are to achieve a shared understanding of issues, a sense of common purpose and a mutual commitment to action. We see the main role of the facilitator in such a group as contributing to process and structure, not content. This view is coloured by our assumptions about groups and how their work can be facilitated: that groups have an emotional life which influences and is influenced by each participant who experiences a tension between what is best for the group and what is personally desired, and that the facilitator's main tasks are to see and understand the group life, intervening only to help the group maintain a task orientation to its work. To understand the group the facilitator observes verbal and non-verbal behaviour, attends to relationships between participants and maintains awareness of his or her own feelings. For some work groups, the facilitator can be helped by computers, which provide an effective means externalizing many aspects of group work. By assigning to the computer the information manipulation and communication tasks, group members can concentrate their attention on the judgmental tasks, and the facilitator can attend better to group processes. Effectively used, computers can help a group maximize the creative and minimize the destructive aspects of its life.
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How can a multinational formulate an effective global strategy? This paper attempts to address this question by assessing the effect of a procedural justice model of strategic decision making (Kim and Mauborgne [Kim, W. C., R. A. Mauborgne. 1991. Implementing global strategies: The role of procedural justice. Strategic Management J. 12 125--143.], [Kim, W. C., R. A. Mauborgne. 1993a. Procedural justice theory and the multinational corporation. S. Ghoshal, D. E. Westney, eds. Organization Theory and the Multinational Corporation . Macmillan, London, UK.]) on the multinational’s ability to formulate effective global strategies. There are five designing principles that define a procedural justice model of strategic decision making. These are: bilateral communication between the head office and subsidiary units; the subsidiary units’ ability to challenge and refute the strategic views of the head office; head office familiarity with the local situation of subsidiary units; a full account for the head office’s final strategic decisions; and application of consistent decision making procedures across subsidiary units. To examine the above effect, here we introduce information processing as an intervening concept to assess the match between the information processing requirements of multinationals’ global strategic objectives and the information processing capabilities provided by the proposed procedural justice model of strategic decision making. Here multinationals’ global strategic objectives are defined as global learning, the balancing of global efficiency and local responsiveness, global strategic renewal, and rapid global strategic decision making. The underlying assumption in this analysis is that if the dimensions of procedural justice facilitate the kinds of strategic information necessary to achieve the multinational’s global strategic objectives, the exercise of procedural justice can be judged to have a salutary effect on the content of global strategies. The results of this study, which are based on the experiences of 63 global strategic decision units, provide support for the effectiveness of this model of strategic decision making.
Article
Strategic planning is a deliberative, disciplined approach to producing fundamental decisions and actions that shape and guide what an organization (or other entity) is, what it does, and why it does it. Strategic planning is not a substitute for strategic thinking, acting, and learning, or for leadership. Instead, strategic planning is a leadership tool meant to enhance strategic thinking, acting, and learning. Strategic planning can produce several benefits, but there is no guarantee that it will. There are a variety of approaches to strategic planning; some approaches emphasize process, while others emphasize content. Strategic management is a broader concept that links planning and implementation.
Article
Demands by clients for earlier delivery after a project has started are increasing. This paper investigates the consequential disruption and delay that follows from the contractor accepting these demands. Explorations are carried out using a System Dynamics model based upon a large model constructed to represent the complexity of a claim for disruption and delay in relation to a specific mega-project. The model used for the explorations has been validated further using information gathered during work on other claim projects. The model enables the impact of disruption and delay resulting from the holistic and dynamic impact of a compressed delivery date to be assessed in relation to two specific and typical options. Use of the model suggests that the probability seems slight of finding the highly specific circumstances where there is any certainty in an outcome of early delivery at little extra cost.
Article
System dynamics (SD) is a modelling approach that has been used to analyse disruption and delay (D&D) for litigation in a number of cases over the last 30 years. However, there is a lack of literature addressing the question of whether or not it is actually a suitable modelling approach to take in this environment. This paper explores this question by considering whether or not SD is capable of meeting the modelling purposes of analysing D&D for litigation. The author's experience as part of a team which has carried out post-mortem analysis on projects for a number of litigation cases is used to consider the degree to which SD can meet these modelling purposes. This process highlights limitations of using SD. An understanding of these limitations is important, so that a modeller can make an informed decision about the appropriateness of SD as a modelling approach to support any specific claim for compensation.
Article
The last two years have seen a plethora of articles discussing the impact of microcomputers on our lives. This article discusses a strange and unique use for some of the facilities now available as a consequence of recent developments in computers. For the last few years the authors have been developing both a method and computer software which is intended to help people think about and make use of their ideas. This is in contrast to the more common use for computers, where they are seen as number-crunchers able to deal at one extreme with the payroll and, at the other, complicated mathematical programming problems. It has been our intention to exploit the potential computers have for enabling groups of people to explore their ideas in a more careful and systematic way than has hitherto been possible.
Article
An abstract is not available.
Article
This paper reports on research undertaken within the context of two sets of computer supported strategy workshops. Each of the series of five one—day workshops were designed within the context of a project aimed at planning and implementing major strategic change within the organisation. In these workshops the SODA methodology was used in conjunction with the multiple workstation system allowing all participants to interact with the modelling process, and, in addition, with a number of manual techniques which were designed to interface with the methodology. Thus “manual group support” (MAGS) was used alongside, and interacting with, both 'Single user group support” (SUGS) and “multi-user group support “(MUGS). The purpose of this paper is to report on a comparison between two series of events. The comparison is set as a set of implications which differentiate, in important ways, the role of a facilitator using group support systems (GSS) to their role in the use of group decision support systems (GDSS). The project reported in this paper involved over fifty senior managers during a two—year period. The project enabled a number of exceptional opportunities to be tapped including i) a researcher as observer throughout the process, ii) video taping every one—day meeting, and iii) in—depth interviews of one—third of the participants. The subjects of the research had to deal with the reality of an organisational history, and, even more importantly, the knowledge that their contributions to the meetings would influence their future as a manager. The conclusions may be taken as a contribution to the design and facilitation of each type of meeting, and to the effective design of the each of the systems (GSS and GDSS). The research raises issues about whether systems should be designed to operate in both Group Support and Group Decision Support modes, or whether it is more appropriate to design specifically for one or the other purpose.
Article
Recent dramatic project failures have highlighted weaknesses in the traditional approaches to project management and in particular their failure to cope with strategic issues. System dynamics models provide a useful tool for a more systematic management of these strategic issues. There have been a number of applications of system dynamics in project management; this experience permits a tentative comparison with the more traditional approaches and to examine the particular benefits of system dynamics. The conflicts of opinion between their supporters stress the different perspectives underlying the two approaches. The comparison of the approaches is focused on the "view" of the project management process. Although, ultimately, they both assume a system perpective, identifying a cycle of planning, implementation and control, the level of detail in which they consider the project system is different. Traditional models support the project manager in the detailed operational problems within the process, while system dynamics models provide more strategic insights and understanding about the effectiveness of different managerial policies. The two approaches provide complementary support to project management; this suggests it could be of major value to integrate the best of both worlds.
Article
System dynamics models have been used extensively over the last 20 years on complex development projects and have proven their value in contributing to significantly improved project performance. System dynamics models facilitate the strategic management of projects, including planning the project (setting the initial schedule and budget, the organization structure, process model, etc.), determining measurement and reward systems, evaluating risks, and learning from past projects. The use of system dynamics for strategic project management is illustrated with a case study of the Peace Shield Air Defense System. On this project, the model was used to support the project bid, to identify and manage risks, and to assess the benefit of several process and organization changes which were implemented on the project. Upon completion, the project results were systematically compared to an earlier project to assess the management lessons—what worked and what did not, and what was the benefit. These lessons were systematized in a management learning system. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Article
Strategic problem solving in organizations is a social process that disturbs established social relationships. Maintaining a negotiated social order is crucial to political feasibility and to emotional commitment from the participants in relation to a solution package. However, Group Decision Support Systems that attend overly to managing social order risk group think through bounded vision. This may be avoided if emotional commitment is also encouraged through participants experiencing the problem situation from multiple perspectives and in relation to alternative solution strategies. Commitment depends upon both means/ends rationality and procedural rationality. This acknowledges the balance in providing support to a group with respect to the negotiation of social order, with the more traditional group decision support for socially negotiating order out of the problem situation. This article argues that effective Group Decision Support Systems must attend to both aspects of creating order. OR modelling methods and the support that can be provided by modern micro-computers offer a new way forward—models can be toys that a group can play with together, enabling them to create knowledge as well as use it.
Article
The use of computers to support group work – as a Group Decision Support System (GDSS) – on strategy making has grown over the last decade. Some GDSS's have a facilitator managing the computer with the group viewing a public screen displaying the debate, problem definition, and agreements of the group as it negotiates strategies. Others involve members of the group in the direct input of data that forms part of the problem definition – data that is then used by the group employing electronic voting and other organizing devices. This paper discusses a real case relating to an organization seeking to reach important agreements about its strategy. The case involved the top management team and over 50 senior managers. The organization used a facilitator driven GDSS for some of this work, and a networked system for other parts. Some of the meetings were video taped, some were observed through one-way mirrors, and all of the participants were interviewed about their reactions to the different systems. This paper reports on some of the significant contrasts between the two approaches.
Article
Within the construction industry the combination of an increasingly fragmented design process, the insatiable demand for detailed information and growing client expectations in delivery times, has placed greater emphasis on the need for effective communication. However information exchange is notoriously inadequate resulting in poor project performance. Both traditional planning and management techniques and risk analysis and management have failed to uncover the most disruptive factors on projects which lead to duration overrun. It is now being understood that the loss of key project personnel is highly disruptive to communication and the absence of recognition and allowance for this eventuality results in a significant under-estimation of uncertainty. System dynamics is seen as an approach to modelling projects which emphasises the interrelationships and concentrates on the whole project. This paper examines the concepts of system dynamics and how they enhance our understanding of the design process. A model of the design process is proposed which looks at the causes behind erosion of design productivity arising from staff changes. In addition it looks at those issues which aggravate the assimilation period of new recruits.
Article
This paper reports the use, in the UK Home Office Prison Department, of cognitive mapping techniques for policy analysis. The methodology used has been developed to facilitate more effective management of messy problems by management teams. Here it is used for the collation, comparison and analysis of the views of many experts in relation to a major policy issue. The analysis makes use of the specially designed computer software, Decision Explorer. The paper discusses the impact of the approach and suggests general implications for the way in which policy analysis is conducted.
Article
This article describes an application specific hypertext system designed to facilitate and capture policy and design discussions. It implements a specific method, called Issue Based Information Systems (IBIS), which was developed for use on large, complex design problems. The hypertext system described here, gIBIS (for graphical IBIS), makes use of color and a high speed relational database server to facilitate building and browsing typed IBIS networks. Further, gIBIS is designed to support the collaborative construction of these networks by any number of cooperating team members spread across a local area network. Early experiments suggest that the gIBIS tool is still incomplete, but that it is already a useful tool for thinking and communication. © 1989 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Article
Through the use of the critical incident technique one may collect specific and significant behavioral facts, providing " a sound basis for making inferences as to requirements " for measures of typical performance (criteria), measures of proficiency (standard samples), training, selection and classification, job design and purification, operating procedures, equipment design, motivation and leadership (attitudes), and counseling and psychotherapy. The development, fundamental principles, present status, and uses of the critical incident technique are discussed, along with a review of studies employing the technique and suggestions for further applications. 74-item bibliography.
Conference Paper
The development of alternative futures/scenarios, is an important part of strategy making. Indeed `scenario planning' has recently become a popular activity in its own right. However, methods for involving directly the power brokers in the process are not well developed, and yet the ownership of the strategic thinking which follows from thinking about alternative futures is crucial for successful strategic change. The paper presents a method for involving the senior management team that succeeds because of its involvement of a group decision support system (GDSS). The method described has been used in a wide variety of organizations-public and private, large and small. After describing the role of thinking about alternative futures in strategy making and its relationship to stakeholder analysis and management, the paper goes on to describe the method and use of the GDSS, and finally considers some of the reasons why the use of a GDSS is helpful
The role of GSS in developing the case for entitlement in Disruption and Delay Litigation
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