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Vision and initial feasibility analysis of a recarbonised Finnish energy system for 2050
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... Sector coupling, dispatchable hydropower, responsive PtX and batteries provide the flexibility needed in systems with variable RE supply. Nuclear power is often found to be rather expensive [34,35], with economically more feasible findings without it [36][37][38]. The literature on energy transition in the Nordics [38][39][40][41] often reach similar conclusions, at least directionally, with dominance of wind power throughout the region, abundant hydropower in Norway and Sweden and surprisingly high shares of solar PV even in such high latitudes. ...
... Child and Breyer [36] suggest Finland can achieve a 100% RE system by 2050, mainly through wind power and bioenergy, with a 17% share of solar PV even in extreme northern latitudes as part of a cost-effective system, integrating power, heating, and transport sectors. Nuclear power expansion increased system costs. ...
... Pääkkönen and Joronen [62] explore the operational flexibility in a bio-fuelled combined heat and power (CHP) plant on Åland Islands, showing that biomass remains relevant in future energy systems, contingent on cheap fuel and adequate income from heat sales, confirming findings from Refs. [36,60]. Laitinen et al. [63] found Helsinki's district heating self-sufficiency technically feasible but not cost-effective, whereas a slight reduction in self-sufficiency notably decreases the overall cost. ...
... Overall, the transition away from fossil fuels is in Finland expected to be highly dependent on increased electricity production and the electrification of industry processes [15,20]. As presented in the sectoral roadmaps, the effects of low-carbon production are most direct for the energy, forest, and chemical sectors [15], although all major industry sectors need to adjust their material needs in a fossil-fuel free future [21]. ...
... The literature contains a number of scenario studies of a future lowcarbon energy system for Finland [20,23]. Specific topics covered in the literature include issues of variable electricity production through wind and solar energy [24,25], such as the need for storage [26], increased risks due to disruptions in a situation with increased share of renewable energy [27], the effects of integration of renewable energy to the existing system [28], and the needed flexibility to allow for variable production [19]. ...
... [20] present scenarios for fully renewable energy production by 2050, based on the EnergyPLAN modeling tool. The goal of the analysis is to show that a fossil-free energy system is possible, while fulfilling the strategic goals for the system, including increased self-sufficiency, cost-efficiency, commitments to use of renewable energy use and climate change mitigation, and maintaining the competitiveness of Finnish industry [20]; 519). The scenarios differ in the amounts of nuclear power production and biomass use, with biomass production varying from 113 to 145 TW h, and nuclear capacity from 1.6 to 4.3 GW. ...
... Because of their high impact in the dialogue surrounding 100% RE systems, EnergyPLAN and the LUT model are considered in more depth to understand their model structures and consequent effects on 100% RE scenario development. EnergyPLAN, introduced in 2006 [46], has been used in multi-sector 100% RE studies for the Aalborg Municipality [47], Åland Islands [48,49], Macedonia [50], Denmark [51,52], Scotland [53], Ireland [54,55], Finland [56], South East Europe [57], and the European Union [12], among others. The LUT model, introduced in 2015 [58] and inspired by an earlier model [59], has been utilised in 100% RE studies for global analyses of the power sector [15] but also all sectors [16], detailed sector coupling studies including the industry sector [17], applied for major regions as transition model for Europe [60] and Northeast Asia [61], while overnight scenarios have been applied for all major regions [14], country studies have been applied for single-node overnight [62], single-node transition [63] and multi-node transition [64] cases. ...
... EnergyPLAN allows for smart charging and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) connections as additional forms of flexibility storage, whose benefits are discussed in Refs. [49,56]. However, because the LUT model does not yet have smart charging or V2G capability, these options were not utilised, and all electricity for the road mode in the transport sector was treated as dump charge in EnergyPLAN. ...
... An additional feature that is allowed in Ener-gyPLAN but not capable in the LUT model is the capability to define flexible electricity demands on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. While flexible electricity demand is not a requirement for the integration of RE as demonstrated by this study and found by Kwon and Østergaard [100], Child and Breyer [56,101] find that flexible demand has a role in offsetting household and industrial electricity demands according to PV generation profiles, which can serve to reduce storage requirements and curtailment levels. With 50% of transport electricity demands being allocated to smart charging and daily flexibility corresponding to 10% of total annual electricity demand, total annualised system costs could be reduced by 0.13 b€. ...
As the discourse surrounding 100% renewable energy systems has evolved, several energy system modelling tools have been developed to demonstrate the technical feasibility and economic viability of fully sustainable, sector coupled energy systems. While the characteristics of these tools vary among each other, their purpose remains consistent in integrating renewable energy technologies into future energy systems. This paper examines two such energy system models, the LUT Energy System Transition model, an optimisation model, and the EnergyPLAN simulation tool, a simulation model, and develops cost-optimal scenarios under identical assumptions. This paper further analyses different novel modelling approaches used by modellers. Scenarios are developed using the LUT model for Sun Belt countries, for the case of Bolivia, to examine the effects of multi and single-node structuring, and the effects of overnight and energy transition scenarios are analysed. Results for all scenarios indicate a solar PV dominated energy system; however, limitations arise in the sector coupling capabilities in EnergyPLAN, leading it to have noticeably higher annualised costs compared to the single-node scenario from the LUT model despite similar primary levelised costs of electricity. Multi-nodal results reveal that for countries with rich solar resources, high transmission from regions of best solar resources adds little value compared to fully decentralised systems. Finally, compared to the overnight scenarios, transition scenarios demonstrate the impact of considering legacy energy systems in sustainable energy system analyses.
... In some works [29,32], the general overview is functional for the analysis of potential configurations that can be applied to a case study. Other works [30,34,38,39] focus mainly on the hydrogen impact in the NG pipelines, with a particular attention to the potential risks associated with hydrogen embrittlement. Several studies [31,33,35] focus on the application of compressed mixtures in internal combustion engines in the transport sector. ...
... Different demand-response technologies based on short-term energy storage, such as vehicle-to-grid or power-toheat strategies, can substantially increase the renewable penetration. However, moving towards the complete decarbonisation of the power system will require the extensive implementation of long-term energy storages and PtG systems will play a key role in the integration of excess renewable generation [39]. ...
This paper attempts to give a broad overview on technologies progress status, effects, perspectives, and issues associated to H2NG widespread applications. It deepens and completes the content of previous reviews by including hitherto unreviewed aspects as far as possible. To do so, a holistic approach has been used by surveying technical, energy, environmental, economic and safety issues related to the hydrogen mixtures’ use. This review aims to provide support for a broader understanding of the problem, starting from the simple list of mixtures properties up to their impact on both NG pipelines and end-use devices. Hydrogen injection affects several blend characteristics and gas network parameters. Mixing limits are also related to Wobbe index variations and safety aspects due to the flashback risk. Numerous works have shown that hydrogen fractions of 10% allow parameters to be kept within acceptable ranges, and up to 20% are not related to significant risks.
... Cost assumptions adopted for financial analysis of 2019 and 2030 scenarios [5,58]. [58], the total investment cost of a charging station for 3 million vehicles was 10% of the total investment of the Lithium-ion BEVs. ...
... Cost assumptions adopted for financial analysis of 2019 and 2030 scenarios [5,58]. [58], the total investment cost of a charging station for 3 million vehicles was 10% of the total investment of the Lithium-ion BEVs. Thus, we consider the same approach to estimate the total investment cost of the charging stations for the BEVs considered in this study. ...
Globally, efforts are underway to keep global warming well below 1.5-2 • C as outlined in the Paris Agreement. Ghana plans to achieve 10 % renewable energy (RE) participation in the national energy mix by 2030. In the Renewable Energy Masterplan 2030, the target is a total installed RE utility scale of 1094.63 MW. In the current work, we propose a better pathway to gradual decarbonization of the Ghanaian energy sector (power, transport, industry, residential, and others) at higher technical levels of variable RE (VRE) penetration, 0 critical excess electricity production (CEEP), and lower cost than the 2030 Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario. In our proposed scenario, High Renewable Energy Penetration (HREP) 2030, we assess the overarching role of electric vehicle integration, power-to-gas (hydrogen), and pumped hydro storage technologies in maximizing VRE penetration in Ghana. The results from the current study show that it is technically feasible to include solar and wind power penetrations of 32.66 % and 38.11 % in the 2030 HREP scenario compared to the 2.64 % and 1.99 % of the 2030 BAU case, respectively. The HREP scenario will ultimately lead to 26.45, 30.86, and 23.34 % contribution of solar, wind, and thermal in the total electricity production in 2030 compared to the 2.36, 1.78, and 74 % of the BAU scenario, respectively. The CO2 emissions and its cost in the HREP case are 22.5 and 22.81 % lower than in the BAU case, and the total annual cost of the former is 12 % lower than the latter. The total electricity production from wind and solar energy alone in the 2030 HREP will create an additional 723 jobs and 11.96 Mt avoided CO2 emissions. The proposal made in the current study could usher in a long-term transition pathway that leads from the current fossil-based system to an affordable, efficient, sustainable, and secure energy future for Ghana. The findings presented in the current study should be of significance to decision-makers in formulating and adopting zero and low-carbon strategies for long-term decarbonization targets and planning in Ghana beyond 2030.
... As solar and wind power have very different full load hours, the wind power produces 75-80 % of the total energy supplied by VRE. Similar capacity ratios were suggested in an analysis of completely renewable power system in Finland [100]. Solar power acts as a balancing element because of its different temporal production distribution compared with wind power. ...
A power-to-X economy can provide low-carbon alternatives to a fossil-based economy, thereby mitigating climate change. E-methanol is a potential alternative but is currently not economically feasible, mainly due to the cost of hydrogen production. Other factors impacting feasibility include the source of carbon dioxide, storage, investment time, capital cost and regulation. Furthermore, multiple industrial operators need to establish a power-to-X value chain, all seeking profitable business opportunities. A cross-disciplinary study was conducted to analyse the influence of these different factors on economic and environmental feasibility. Dynamic modelling was used to optimize e-methanol production based on variable renewable energy generation. Life cycle assessment and costing were used to compare the economic and environmental sustainability of the studied value chains. Over 30-years, the discounted net cash flow of a value chain can become profitable with sufficiently low electricity prices (less than 37€/MWh) and considerable investment subsidies for hydrogen producer. Similar profitability can be achieved with the electricity price given and without subsidies when the weighted average cost of capital is low (5 %). Therefore, hydrogen producers may face challenges in generating profit; highlighting the need for profit-sharing in the value chain and/or subsidies. As capital expenditure for certain technologies is predicted to decline, gradually increasing the production capacity with timed investments is preferable. However, trade-offs may arise in climate change mitigation if investments in cleaner alternatives are delayed.
... Apart from the EnergyPlan default cost data, the following cost values were provided as the cost assumption in both scenario years. According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (2024), the solar PV module capex costs were slightly above 1 200 €/kWp in 2023 and According to future the projections by C. Breyer and M. Child (2016), it is expected to drop to slightly above 100 €/kWp in 2050. Above mentioned values were considered as Solar PV capital costs in the simulation. ...
This thesis explores strategies to mitigate the Duck Curve phenomenon in California and Germany by integrating renewable Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) systems, and other storage systems. Using EnergyPLAN software for scenario modelling, the study evaluates Business-as-Usual and High DER and V2G scenarios for 2050, focusing on renewable energy utilization, CO2 emissions, energy costs, and grid stability.
In California, the High DER and V2G scenario fully eliminates the duck curve, reduces CO2 emissions to 11 700 Mt with more than a 94% renewable energy share, and lowers system costs (excluding electricity imports and exports) to 18 billion euros - over three times lower than the BAU scenario. This scenario also halves the projected need for pumped hydro storage expansion, demonstrating the benefits of extensive DER deployment, including solar PV, wind power, grid scale storage systems and V2G systems.
In Germany, while both scenarios achieve carbon neutrality and 100% renewable energy, the High DER and V2G scenario addresses seasonal demand fluctuations by doubling wind power to 400 GW and battery storage to 120 GW. Although this scenario results a higher system cost (excluding electricity imports and exports) of 68 billion euros, it reduces reliance on electricity imports and increases renewable energy exports, offsetting costs in the long term.
The findings highlight the potential of advanced energy systems to decarbonize the grid, optimize costs, and enhance energy resilience, fulfilling the research objectives for both regions.
... At the time the authors submitted their article there were many other studies of 100% or near-100% renewable systems that the authors did not review. Most studies were simulated with an hourly resolution and many modelled the transmission grid, with examples covering the globe [14,15], North-East Asia [16], the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) [17], Europe and its neighbours [18], Europe [19][20][21][22][23], South-East Europe [24], the Americas [25], China [26], the United States [27], Finland [28], Denmark [29], Germany [30], Ireland [31], Portugal [32] and Berlin-Brandenburg in Germany [33]. ...
A recent article 'Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems' claims that many studies of 100% renewable electricity systems do not demonstrate sufficient technical feasibility, according to the criteria of the article's authors (henceforth 'the authors'). Here we analyse the authors' methodology and find it problematic. The feasibility criteria chosen by the authors are important, but are also easily addressed at low economic cost, while not affecting the main conclusions of the reviewed studies and certainly not affecting their technical feasibility. A more thorough review reveals that all of the issues have already been addressed in the engineering and modelling literature. Nuclear power, which the authors have evaluated positively elsewhere, faces other, genuine feasibility problems, such as the finiteness of uranium resources and a reliance on unproven technologies in the medium- to long-term. Energy systems based on renewables, on the other hand, are not only feasible, but already economically viable and decreasing in cost every year.
... Some authors adopt assessment methods-based algorithms previously developed in other publications or companies. A common model used in several papers [4][5][6][7][8][9] is the EnergyPLAN [8] The annuity per unit. r ...
... Such a curve has previously been employed in other research and is illustrated in Figure 3. Moreover, the cost of DH substations has been considered in accordance with Ref. [40]. ...
Achieving a zero-emission building heating sector requires numerous strategies and detailed energy planning, in order to identify the optimal decarbonisation pathway. This work aims to assess the impact of district heating expansion and the implementation of energy-saving measures on the decarbonisation of the Italian building stock by 2050, analysing their combined impact, reciprocal effects, and technical–economic implications on the entire national energy system. The scenarios have been implemented and simulated with the H2RES software, a long-term energy planning optimisation model, built for the Italian national energy system. Results indicate that it is possible to decarbonise the heating system in an efficient and cost-effective manner by the year 2040. Heat pumps represent the optimal technology at both centralised and decentralised levels. District heating expansion is a priority for the decarbonisation of the building stock, allowing us to reduce costs, exploit thermal storage systems and provide system flexibility. In the best scenario, 40% of the Italian heat demand can be supplied by fourth-generation district heating. Energy-saving measures can reduce heat demand and primary energy but at higher annual costs and with a significant increase in investment. The combined simulation of the strategies within an optimisation model of the entire energy system enables the accurate assessment of the real impact of the various measures, considering their reciprocal effects and technical–economic implications.
... For instance, [29] investigates Australia's energy transition using the multi-sector Australian Energy Modeling System (AUSeMOSYS) to identify a cost-optimal path to decarbonize the energy system by 2050, relying heavily on wind and photovoltaics and employing various flexible options. In a similar vein, [30] explores the path toward a 100 % renewable energy system in Finland by 2050, incorporating a wide range of storage and flexibility solutions. Likewise, in [31], authors analyze the implications of sustainable energy transition in Chile, focusing on renewable energy and sector coupling to achieve a 100 % renewablebased energy system along a transformation path from 2015 to 2050. ...
To integrate variable renewable energy sources into the energy system and achieve net-zero emissions, the flexible operation of the power system is essential. Options that provide flexibility include electrolysis, demand side management, import and export of electricity, and flexible power plants. However, the interplay of these flexibility options in a renewable energy system with highly interacting energy and end-use sectors (known as sector coupling) is not yet fully understood. The aim of this paper is to improve the understanding of energy flexibility from a system perspective by explaining which flexibility options can provide how much flexibility and when are they operated. The analysis of the hourly results of the sector-coupled, long-term energy system model REMod shows that in times with high renewable electricity production, sector coupling technologies, specifically electrolysis and power-to-heat, dominate the annual flexibility shares. On the other hand, in times with low renewable production and high non-flexible demand, combined and open cycle gas turbines and electricity imports dominate in winter, while discharging electricity storage technologies dominate in summer. The operation of short-term electricity storage aligns in particular with photovoltaic production, while the operation of electrolysis is especially aligned to wind production. Non-flexible demand variations are driving the operation of combined and open cycle gas turbines and electricity imports. The results emphasize the pivotal role of flexibility, highlighting the need for efficient surplus electricity utilization and sector coupling. The results further suggest that it is crucial to establish market conditions that facilitate the flexible operation of various technologies in order to achieve economic efficiency.
... Aditiya et al. [25] considered the prospect to institute the inter-state hydrogen energy system on selected countries in Asia-Pacific region, by means of four indicators based on domestic energy capacity, national wealth, society development, and research and development (R&D). Child et al. [26] investigated on the feasibility of the 2050 Finnish energy system based on 100% renewable energy, in accordance with P2G strategies. The authors computed different installation scenarios, employing EnergyPLAN software. ...
... In contrast to this, studies showed that nuclear-free energy systems are technically and economically desirable for the case of Sweden and Finland [30,31], but also for Japan [32,33], which has been subject to a more intense debate about nuclear power due to the disaster of Fukushima. Further, in [34,35] it could be demonstrated that new nuclear power technologies show unfavourable economic conditions and can be effected by construction delays and cost overruns, as it is currently happening with the Hinkley Point C plant in Somerset, England [36]. ...
The British Isles, consisting of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland, were investigated for a sustainable energy system transition towards 100% renewable energy in 2050. Under given framework conditions, three pathways comprising the entire energy system were investigated in 5‐year time steps and hourly resolution applying an advanced energy system modelling tool and identifying the lowest cost solutions. The British Isles were structured into 10 sub‐national regions. Special attention was paid to the high offshore wind potential of the British Isles, as well as the limited societal acceptance for onshore wind in the United Kingdom. The results indicate that a transition to 100% renewable energy is economically more attractive than the governmental strategy that involves nuclear power and fossil carbon capture and storage. The total annualised system costs can decrease to 63 b€ and a levelised cost of electricity of 40 €/MWh if onshore wind and solar photovoltaics are allowed to be built to a higher extend. High levels of electrification and sector coupling are the main reasons for decreasing primary energy demand. The multiple risks of nuclear technology can be avoided if dedicated action towards 100% renewable energy is taken.
... With the increasing scarcity of non-renewable energy and strict carbon emission requirements, building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPVs) is gradually interesting to people [1][2][3], which can directly convert solar energy into electricity, reduce energy consumption on buildings, and is one of the most attractive ways to use renewable and clean energy [4][5][6][7]. However, traditional silicon (Si) photovoltaic (PV) modules maximize the conversion of solar energy resulting in the monotonous black appearance that limits their wide application [8]. ...
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPVs) shows attractive potential in utilizing solar energy and easing the global greenhouse effect. However, the strong absorption of traditional silicon (Si) photovoltaic (PV) modules makes the high surface temperature and keeps the black appearance. For the current BIPVs, improving the power conversion efficiency (PCE) of Si PV modules with aesthetic requirements remains a great challenge. Herein, we design a novel transparent-colored radiative cooling nanocomposite coating that can be applied to the cover glass of Si PV modules. The functional coating consists of the non-metallic nanoparticle (Si@SiO 2 core-shell nano-particle) for the structural coloration of PV modules and poly (methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) as the matrix. The Si@SiO 2 core-shell nanoparticle with Mie resonance selectively reflects visible light to generate a structural color. The PMMA exhibits high transmittance above the bandgap of the Si solar cell and good emittance in the mid-infrared region. The simulated results show that the colored PV modules with integrated coatings display a wide range of colors in the CIE− 1931 color space and the PCE loss reduction of all the colored PV modules is less than 10%. Meanwhile, the solar transmittance above the Si bandgap T solar > 0.9 and the emittance in the atmospheric window ε IR > 0.95. The equilibrium temperature of Si PV modules with functional coatings is only 2~3 K higher than the ideal minimum. This work provides an alternative and convenient method to design the structural colored PV module with radiative cooling for effectively balancing PV module color and PCE, promoting the development of BIPVs.
... Cost of CO 2 treatment for electricity generation technology j in region k in period t ($/kg) APER ± itk Availability of primary energy source i in region k in period scenarios (Tigas et al., 2015). Another modeling approach, EnergyPLAN, has been applied to Finland to assist in comparing and analyzing various energy sector transformation strategies including high shares of renewable energy as well as differing costs and levels of other technologies (Child and Breyer, 2016). Koltsaklis and Georgiadis (2015) proposed a multi-period, multi-regional generation expansion planning model to investigate the optimal decarbonization pathway for the Greek power sector. ...
In this study, a multi-regional factorial optimization model (MRFO) has been developed for supporting nationwide transitions to low-carbon electric power systems (EPS) under the commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Through integrating non-deterministic optimization methods (interval linear, chance-constrained, and mixed-integer linear programming) with factorial analysis, MRFO can address multiple uncertainties stated as
intervals and probability distribution in system parameters and objectives; it can also unveil the effects of multiple uncertain parameters and their interactions on system performance. A Canadian case study is provided to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. Optimal schemes of electricity generation, capacity expansion, and inter-regional trades at different risk levels are examined with the objective of minimizing the total system costs. Results indicate that renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar) would play an important role in facilitating the transitions to low-carbon EPS, which would contribute to approximately 13% of the total national electricity generation by 2050. In addition, increasing the collaboration among regional EPS would have positive effects on the national penetration of low-carbon power generation in the light of the diversities in regional generation mixes. The findings can support the national efforts in formulating desired long-term power generation expansion plans and emission reduction policies.
... Sweden and Finland, where solar is viewed as a competitive cost system, have also seen increased growth. Sweden now has an estimated 200 MW of solar, mainly north of Stockholm [156]. In the US, four of the top ten states for solar growth are located above 40°N, and more than 7 MW of solar has been installed to date in Alaska at latitudes above 66°N. ...
This report summarizes aspects of soiling from different perspectives including particle types and global distributions (Chapter 1), mechanisms and contributing factors (Chapter 2), sensors and measurement techniques (Chapter 3), modelling approaches and results (Chapter 4), economic impacts (Chapter 5), mitigation strategies (Chapter 6), and special installation and operation considerations for snow shading in high latitudes.
... Photovoltaics (PV) has attracted more and more attention as an environmental-friendly power source to reduce carbon emissions and prevent global warming effectively. According to some previous reports [1,2], energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions will be reduced by 95-100% by 2050 using renewable energy, meaning that carbon emission must be reduced in every energy sector. Zero energy building (ZEB) is necessary for minimizing carbon emissions from residential and commercial buildings. ...
The advancement of technology has led to the development of smart energy systems, integrating traditional and innovative energy solutions with technologies such as IoT and AI. These systems enhance sustainability by diversifying energy sources and enabling sector coupling. To ensure their optimal functionality, precise and comprehensive energy modeling tools are crucial. This paper provides a thorough review of energy modeling tools, focusing on their suitability for future smart energy systems. From the reviewed tools, efficient options are selected based on the requirements of smart energy systems. These systems aim to improve efficiency, resilience, and sustainability while reducing overall energy costs, necessitating innovative modeling solutions. Energy modeling tools play a crucial role in modeling complex energy frameworks, providing insights for informed decision-making. They optimize energy consumption, predict renewable energy variability, facilitate load balancing, and refine resource allocation strategies. However, the evolution of smart energy systems introduces new modeling challenges, requiring the adaptation and updating of the modeling tools. This study identifies the modeling requirements of future smart energy systems and matches them with the capabilities of present tools through a comprehensive comparative analysis.
The Nordics have a huge renewable energy potential, mainly in the form of onshore and offshore wind as well as biomass potentials and can deliver some of the lowest electricity prices in Europe. They could export large amounts of electricity and hydrogen, supplying mainland Europe and abroad. But where and when should wind, PV and green fuel production capacity be built, and what kind of infrastructure is needed? Within the Nordics—who can/will become a net exporter of electricity and green fuels?
To avoid sub-optimal solutions, some overall analysis and planning may be needed to secure societal benefits and reduce the overall cost. By comparing plans and visions for the build-out of electrolyser capacity, electricity and gas infrastructure, and wind and solar projects, we discuss consistency (or lack thereof) in the project pipelines. Furthermore, the future role of the Nordics is discussed by comparing scenario analysis from different modelling teams to identify robust conclusions and critical uncertainties.
The impact goes beyond SDG 13 (Climate action) and supports e.g., SDG 8 (Decent work and economic growth) by implementing a more sustainable economic system and also offers the opportunity to provide affordable and clean energy (SDG 7).
This study aims to investigate the global transition towards 100% renewable energy (RE) grids while analyzing associated challenges and economic prospects. The scientific aim of the work is to examine national and regional plans, revealing shared research challenges such as neglect of system stability, reliance on specific RE sources, and limitations on capacity share growth. The subject of the research was to obtain insights into the economic feasibility of this transition, underscored by projections of creating 24.3 million new jobs by 2050 and substantial annual savings in air pollution and environmental costs. This study extends the existing research by analyzing promising examples from countries like Norway and Costa Rica, demonstrating diverse approaches with hydropower playing a pivotal role, while Canada and New Zealand showcase adaptability based on local resources. Addressing key research challenges, from technological uncertainties to socio-economic considerations, the paper emphasizes the need for robust policies and infrastructure development. Despite challenges, the transition promises economic benefits, with estimated annual savings in healthcare and global warming costs. The literature and global examples affirm the technical and financial feasibility of transitioning to 100% RE. In conclusion, this paper contributes to understanding the intricate economic and technological landscape of achieving a sustainable global energy transition.
Phasing out fossil fuel use in order to limit global warming is an urgent global task. In a new climate law, Finland has set itself the target of being carbon neutral by 2035. Various scenarios and models have been presented on future energy needs and technological methods of production. However, there is a lack of research covering all fossil fuel energy use (power, heating, transport) and estimations of full replacement tasks. In order to highlight the concrete steps needed, we use a bottom-up approach, calculating for 2019 (the latest year with no artificial signatures in the data) the contribution of coal, oil, natural gas and peat to the Finnish energy system. The replacement of fossil fuels via electrification would, at minimum, demand a doubling of power production, with the precise number depending on the technologies of replacement, most notably the use of hydrogen versus electric drive in various modes of transport. The scale of the task points, first, to the trade-off between biomass use in forest industry and in energy production, and, second, to the salience of reduced energy demand in helping the task of transition.
New technologies, systems, societal organization and policies for energy saving are urgently needed in the context of accelerated climate change, the Ukraine conflict and the past coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. For instance, concerns about market and policy responses that could lead to new lock-ins, such as investing in liquefied natural gas infrastructure and using all available fossil fuels to compensate for Russian gas supply cuts, may hinder decarbonization efforts. Here we review energy-saving solutions with a focus on the actual energy crisis, green alternatives to fossil fuel heating, energy saving in buildings and transportation, artificial intelligence for sustainable energy, and implications for the environment and society. Green alternatives include biomass boilers and stoves, hybrid heat pumps, geothermal heating, solar thermal systems, solar photovoltaics systems into electric boilers, compressed natural gas and hydrogen. We also detail case studies in Germany which is planning a 100% renewable energy switch by 2050 and developing the storage of compressed air in China, with emphasis on technical and economic aspects. The global energy consumption in 2020 was 30.01% for the industry, 26.18% for transport, and 22.08% for residential sectors. 10–40% of energy consumption can be reduced using renewable energy sources, passive design strategies, smart grid analytics, energy-efficient building systems, and intelligent energy monitoring. Electric vehicles offer the highest cost-per-kilometer reduction of 75% and the lowest energy loss of 33%, yet battery-related issues, cost, and weight are challenging. 5–30% of energy can be saved using automated and networked vehicles. Artificial intelligence shows a huge potential in energy saving by improving weather forecasting and machine maintenance and enabling connectivity across homes, workplaces, and transportation. For instance, 18.97–42.60% of energy consumption can be reduced in buildings through deep neural networking. In the electricity sector, artificial intelligence can automate power generation, distribution, and transmission operations, balance the grid without human intervention, enable lightning-speed trading and arbitrage decisions at scale, and eliminate the need for manual adjustments by end-users.
Climate-related stranded assets have been a popular research topic of many studies over the last decade. Past studies have mostly focused on estimations of stranded assets and mitigation options. While the studies consider energy transitions, the influential factors behind the choice of options have not been investigated in-depth. Because such choices may have path dependency, affecting the direction and speed of subsequent changes, it is critical to understand stranded asset risk and its relations to choices and the transition more comprehensively. To do so, we conduct a systematic literature review to explore the impacts of stranded asset risk on incumbents' decision-making and energy transitions. Our findings demonstrate that stranded asset risk, coupled with transition costs, energy security and sustainability concerns determine the pathway of energy transitions. Higher perceived stranded assets will pave the transition toward a renewable energy-based system, but high concerns about transition costs, energy security, and sustainability would retard the transition or direct the system toward different pathways. Abrupt policy change intensifies regime resistance and energy injustice, but slow change strengthens lock-ins into traditional systems.
The world needs to turn away from fossil fuels and use clean, renewable sources of energy as soon as we can. Failure to do so will cause catastrophic climate damage sooner than you might think, leading to loss of biodiversity and economic and political instability. But all is not lost! We still have time to save the planet without resorting to 'miracle' technologies. We need to wave goodbye to outdated technologies, such as natural gas and carbon capture, and repurpose the technologies that we already have at our disposal. We can use existing technologies to harness, store, and transmit energy from wind, water, and solar sources to ensure reliable electricity, heat supplies, and energy security. Find out what you can do to improve the health, climate, and economic state of our planet. Together, we can solve the climate crisis, eliminate air pollution and safely secure energy supplies for everyone.
The deployment of distributed energy systems must take place paying attention to the self-consumption of renewable generation. Innovative sector coupling strategies can play that role linking local electricity and gas grids. The present work aims to evaluate the energy and economic feasibility of the Power-to-Methane strategy application in urban energy districts. A residential cluster was considered as a case study. Two PV configurations have been applied to evaluate the Substitute Natural Gas (SNG) production under different renewable excess conditions. Thereafter, the Power-to-Methane strategy was implemented by varying the system’s size. Some significant configurations have been compared to each other in terms of energy and economics. Beyond a certain threshold limit, an increase in the photovoltaic size slightly enhances the effectively self-consumed energy. The Power-to-Methane strategy can exploit all the renewable excess once the system is properly sized, almost doubling the potential energy consumption reduction compared to the PV system alone. The SNG production cost is between 100 and 200 EUR/MWh in most configurations, which is competitive with the high natural gas prices on the European market. Therefore, decentralised SNG production can reduce the households’ annual expenditures and it can mitigate the energy poverty conditions over the current energy crisis period.
Concerns related to climate change and global warming caused by anthropogenic activities and in particular fossil energy use have been increasing lately. Air pollution and volatile conventional fuel prices emphasize the need to transition the energy system towards very high shares of renewables. 100% renewable energy systems have been analyzed by many researchers starting from 1975. This bibliometric analysis reviews more than 600 scientific articles in which 100% renewable energy systems were surveyed. This study uses tools of bibliometric analysis, based on publication databases and data mining, together with review elements to understand the current status and trend of 100% renewable energy systems research. The focus of results is on quantitative parameters relating to number and publication types, collaborative links among authors, institutions, and countries. Collaborative networks provide the significant concentration of published papers within organizations and co-authorships globally. The results reveal that the dominant organizations and thus number of published papers are from Europe and the USA; however, almost all the established research organizations in the field of energy system analysis are not active in the field of 100% renewable energy systems analyses. The journals
Energy
and
Applied Energy
have the most articles, and accordingly the most citations. EnergyPLAN and LUT Energy System Transition Model have been the most active tools used to analyze 100% renewable energy systems according to numbers of articles and received citations. The topic of modeling approach indicates the term ’Energy System’ has the highest frequency due to its emergence in the articles. This research provides a holistic overview on the more than four decades of research, and it reveals dynamics within the field with a compound annual growth rate of articles of 26% for the 2010s, the trend of publications, and author growth that comprises now almost 1400 authors with articles in the field.
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) is desired to reduce carbon emissions from residential and commercial buildings. In this application, the controlling the visual impact of BIPV module with preserving PV performance remains a great challenge since the appearance of conventional PV modules is not favorable for building skins in most cases because of their dark colors. In this paper, we report on the color control of crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV modules by introducing the structural colors based on the interference effect. We apply the structural colors to the cover glass of PV minimodules with textured surfaces. The glass texturing is realized by sandblasting technique that allows us to form various textured surfaces depending on sandblasting conditions. High flexibility of structural colors is demonstrated by realizing various colors including violet, cyan, green, and orange using dielectric multilayers deposited on planar and textured glass sheets. These colored glass sheets are applied to c-Si PV minimodules, which exhibit high efficiencies (>18%) with distinct colors. The efficiency of colored PV minimodules depends strongly on their colors, as the efficiency loss originates solely from the optical loss by the colored glasses. In addition, the color difference at various view angles is evaluated by reflectance measurement with an integral sphere and compared in a CIE color system. It clarifies that surface texturing by sandblasting mitigates the angular dependence of structural colors substantially, which is also observable by our eyes. Besides, surface texturing is effective to mitigate the glare effect as well. Therefore, the combination of structural colors and surface texturing is a promising way to realize fascinating colors and a high energy yield simultaneously in BIPV modules.
The EU Commission raised the GHG emissions reduction targets from 40% to at least 55% by 2030, By the “Fit for 55” package. Member States have to review their national energy and climate plans (NECPs) in a short-time. In order to elaborate guidelines for the Italian NECP improvement, a methodology based on the Smart Energy Systems (SES) approach has been proposed. The reference scenario has been modelled in EnergyPLAN. A Sectors’ Implementation Matrix, consisting of eight sectors and three implementation levels, has been developed and the configurations have been simulated by means of MAT4EnergyPLAN. The best scenario accomplishes the 55% emissions reduction targets along with a lowering in the annualised costs of Italian energy system. The RES capacity targets must be increased by further 33 GW for PV and 16.6 GW for WIND. High end-uses electrification degree represents the priority in the next decade, so as to easily and cost-effectively integrate the variable-RES. An integrated energy system and the sector coupling even take priority over the RES installation in order to minimise the energy system decarbonisation costs. Finally, the present work contributes to demonstrate the need for the SES approach in the planning of energy systems with large-scale RES integration.
In recent months, gas prices have reached unprecedented levels, hurting the European economy and exacerbating energy poverty conditions. This paper deals with investigating measures for a rapid reduction in the Italian natural gas (NG) consumption. The aim is to assess and quantify energy, economic, social and environmental impacts of different strategies to be implemented promptly. Several solutions, such as utility and residential PV systems, Wind plants, biomethane, green hydrogen and heat pumps, have been analysed. Different implementation levels of such solutions have been simulated in combination with each other by means of the MATLAB Toolbox for EnergyPLAN. The NG Abatement Cost (NGAC) has been calculated. That indicator allows an immediate evaluation of economic benefits comparing it with current and future NG spot prices and potential import alternatives. The NGAC of the best strategies is between 40 and 70 €/MWh depending on the amount of achieved savings. Less than 80 billion in total investment leads to a NG reduction of 75 TWh/year at an average abatement cost of about 70 €/MWh. That entails an employment impact of 640,000 temporary jobs and 30,000 permanent jobs along with an emission reduction of 21.5 MtCO2/year. Under the highest implementation of such measures, future average NG spot prices higher than 50 €/MWh allow to reduce GHG emissions implying decarbonisation costs lower than 80 €/tCO2. Furthermore, three Carbon Abatement Cost curves by changing the NG prices have been elaborated. The findings of this work show how current high NG prices can be an opportunity to speed up the transition process towards decarbonised energy systems.
Hydroelectric power has unusual technical characteristics that could become more valuable as the penetration of variable generation renewables grows, but its use for electricity generation is constrained by complex physical, safety, and socioenvironmental considerations. Hydroelectricity can therefore be difficult to represent in national‐scale energy models, and is frequently presumed to be either overly flexible or inflexible. While a few grid models address this complexity via detailed hydraulic process models, more simplified optimization and dispatch models could benefit from the use of empirical parameter values. In this study, we combine a new data set comprising 7.8 million flow‐hours of data from 2011 to 2016 at 158 dams across the United States with monthly and hourly generation data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to elucidate such empirical constraints for the continental United States. We introduce an approach for estimating power generation from hourly water discharge, then present regionally resolved interannual seasonal and diurnal generation patterns; frequency analyses of ramp rates; minimum and maximum generation rates; daily reversals; and load duration curves, all available interactively with a new data visualization tool. We suggest that due largely to hydropower's role as power generation that also serves non‐energy purposes, it acts as a predictable variable generator with constrained dispatchability, more like a supply side analog to demand response resources than like a battery. This observation is particularly relevant for high penetration renewable energy scenarios, given hydroelectric generators' expected value for grid stabilization and load balancing.
Energy systems analyses are integrated elements in planning the transition towards renewable energy-based energy systems. This is due to a growing complexity arising from the wider exploitation of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) and an increasing reliance on sector integration as an enabler of temporal energy system integration, but it calls for consideration to the validity of modelling tools. This article synthesises EnergyPLAN applications through an analysis of its use both from a bibliometric and a case-geographical point of view and through a review of the evolution in the issues addressed and the results obtained using EnergyPLAN. This synthesis is provided with a view to addressing the validity and contribution of EnergyPLAN-based research. As of July 1st, 2022, EnergyPLAN has been applied in 315 peer-reviewed articles, and we see the very high application as an inferred internal validation. In addition, the review shows how the complexity of energy systems analyses has increased over time with early studies focusing on the role of wind power and the cogeneration of heat and power and later studies addressing contemporarily novel issues like the sector integration offered by using power-to-x in fully integrated renewable energy systems. Important findings developed through the application of EnergyPLAN includes the value of district heating in energy systems, the value of district heating for integration of VRES and more generally the importance of sector integration for resource-efficient renewable energy-based energy systems. The wide application across systems and development stages is interpreted as inferred validation through distributed stepwise replication.
This paper presents a strategy for achieving a fully decarbonized Danish energy system (including transport and industry) in 2045. The strategy could also be relevant for most countries at a global level. The energy system analysis includes hour-by-hour computer simulations leading to the design of a Smart Energy System with the ability to balance all sectors of the complete energy system. In the analysis, issues such as international shipping and aviation, the sustainable use of biomass, and the exchange of electricity and gas with neighbouring countries are all considered. Moreover, the energy system is coordinated with other sectors to achieve a fully decarbonized society. Finally, the size of the employment impact of investing in decarbonizing the Danish economy is discussed.
This paper compares various flexibility options to support renewable energy integration across the energy transition using energy system modelling. We analyse new flexibility assets such as electricity storage, heat pumps, demand-side response with existing wet appliances, electric boilers for domestic hot water and distribution grid expansion, along with energy efficiency measures in electrical appliances and building retrofitting. We propose an open-source sector coupling model (GRIMSEL-FLEX) to minimise, from a social planner perspective, the total cost of the energy system for electricity and residential heating supply in Switzerland, including various types of consumers and urban settings. We find relevant feedback mechanisms among various flexibility options. Firstly, electric boilers have a larger flexibility potential than demand-side response with wet appliances since they reduce storage investments by more than 26% by 2050 (only 12% for demand-side response). Secondly, 34% more electricity storage is needed if heat pumps replace all fossil-based heating and 80% to replace all heating systems entirely. Thirdly, we find a shift in the operation of heat pumps, electric boilers and wet appliances from night to midday, resulting in larger photovoltaic deployment (22%-66% for the residential sector). Finally, electricity storage capacity induced by heat pump deployment is highly dependent on the retrofitting rate. With 1% per annum, 86% of storage investments can be avoided and it can be counterbalanced with a high retrofitting rate of 2% per annum.
The European Hydrogen Strategy set an electrolysers' capacity target of 40 GW by 2030. This will lead to a sudden expansion of the electrolyser industry across Europe and the unit cost of electrolyser production will steeply decrease. The purpose of the present work is to integrate the learning curve approach with the national energy and economic planning, taking the Italian Hydrogen Strategy as a case study. Different learning curves and different roadmaps for the electrolysers' installation have been combined in order to model scenarios for predicting progressive fall in the electrolysers’ CAPEX. The investment needed to implement the strategy ranges between 1.5 and 3.3 G€ and depends mainly on the learning curve scenario. The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen has been calculated by changing different boundary conditions. Moreover, an incentive scheme has been proposed by comparing the green hydrogen cost to the blue and grey ones. Under the hypothesis of a fully-blended hydrogen use in the gas grid, a potential CO2 reduction up to 8.4 MtonCO2 over the decade can be accomplished. The main barrier to the economic competitiveness of Power to Gas systems is the still too high price of renewable electricity. It will be optimistic to obtain hydrogen prices lower than 2.44 €/kgH2 in Italy by 2030. Nevertheless, the deployment of the Hydrogen Valleys, where both production and consumption coexist, can reduce the carbon avoidance cost. Finally, it has been demonstrated that the failure to achieve the European targets is associated with higher hydrogen production costs and higher decarbonisation costs.
The power sector in China, which is the main CO2 emission contributor in the country, plays an essential role in achieving the 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Notably, there are scientific gaps regarding the decarbonization plan to achieve this goal and the future power supply structure. The objective of this study is to systematically explore and evaluate the feasibility of constructing a carbon-neutral power sector. Considering the power source potential, power supply characteristics, and advanced technologies, methodological steps were developed for the design and assessment of China's power sector. In particular, an evaluation indicator system was included to assess the decarbonization of the power sector and make it comparable in the international context. The results indicated that it is possible for the country's power sector to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, using available domestic energy resources. The total cost of the 100% non-fossil power sector was the lowest, accounting for 87.3% of that of the business-as-usual (BAU) power sector. Compared with the BAU power sector, the renewable power sectors had abatement costs of −0.12–0.43 kCNY/t. The negative abatement cost indicated that power sector decarbonization could be cost-effective in China. In the international context, the cost of electricity of the future China power sector (∼0.42 CNY/kWh) was comparable to that in other regions, while the CO2 abatement cost was lower than that in most regions. The proposed methodological steps can be beneficial for CO2 emissions reduction and energy structure conversion in the power sector of any region.
District heating is of great significance for the Nordic countries due to the high heat demand. The Finnish government has set a national target of carbon neutrality in 2035. This implies a huge challenge and rapid system change. The Helsinki metropolitan area consists of Helsinki, Espoo and Vantaa, and in each city a different district heating company operates, and the technologies planned for decarbonization are different. This research aims to analyze these strategies with respect to carbon dioxide emissions and production costs, assuming different future European Union emissions carbon trading prices. The software EnergyPRO is used to provide least-cost optimal district heating operation solutions. From 2010 to 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the Helsinki metropolitan area district heating will decrease by about 4.2 million tonnes. However, the average heat production costs are expected to increase considerably by almost threefold; while heat trade between the cities will reinforce the feasibility and decreases the system operation costs and total emissions. Helsinki will import heat, especially from Vantaa waste incineration plants. Higher carbon dioxide prices would reduce the total emissions, increase the total district heating operation costs, and lower the heat imported to Helsinki. As all the cities plan biomass as an alternative to fossil fuels, a higher biomass price would limit its consumption but increase natural gas usage the carbon dioxide emissions. In the future, combined heat and power plants will be used significantly less, leading to lost income on electricity sales and profoundly changing the business of the district heating companies.
There are several barriers to achieving an energy system based entirely on renewable energy (RE) in Finland, not the least of which is doubt that high capacities of solar photovoltaics (PV) can be feasible due to long, cold and dark Finnish winters. Technologically, several energy storage options can facilitate high penetrations of solar PV and other variable forms of RE. These options include electric and thermal storage systems in addition to a robust role of Power-to-Gas technology. In an EnergyPLAN simulation of the Finnish energy system for 2050, approximately 45% of electricity produced from solar PV was used directly over the course of the year, which shows the relevance of storage. In terms of public policy, several mechanisms are available to promote various forms of RE. However, many of these are contested in Finland by actors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo rather than by those without confidence in RE conversion or storage technologies. These vested interests must be overcome before a zero fossil carbon future can begin. The results of this study provides insights into how higher capacities of solar PV can be effectively promoted and managed at high latitudes, both north and south.
A 100% renewable energy scenario was developed for Finland in 2050 using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool to find a suitable, least-cost configuration. Hourly data analysis determined the roles of various energy storage solutions. Electricity and heat from storage represented 15% of end-user demand. Thermal storage discharge was 4% of end-user heat demand. In the power sector, 21% of demand was satisfied by electricity storage discharge, with the majority (87%) coming from vehicle-to-grid (V2G) connections. Grid gas storage discharge represented 26% of gas demand. This suggests that storage solutions will be an important part of a 100% renewable Finnish energy system.
Initiatives of developing roadmaps for moving to a low carbon economy by 2050 have been taken by many European authorities, including the European Commission. Using the ETSAP TIMES modeling framework as the central tool, we analyse the implications of low carbon policies within Europe, with a special focus on the Finnish energy system. The main objective of the work in the Low Carbon Finland 2050 -platform project was to identify cost-effective and robust pathways for moving into a low carbon economy by 2050, by creating a set of different scenarios for the future society and economy. The report outlines the work carried out with the VTT TIMES model, which is a global partial equilibrium techno-economic energy systems model. On the global level, the analysis considers also the energy system impacts on the depletion of known mineral resources for critical high-tech metals, many of which are closely associated with the key energy technologies of the future.
The work builds on the prior work of Koljonen and Similä (2013), but presents a further elaboration of the different storylines and pathways to a low carbon economy. In the different pathways not only the technology portfolios are changed but also the structure of the whole economy, including substantial changes in the Finnish energy intensive industries, community structures, and even consumer behaviour. The sensitivities to uncertainties in the energy system’s development with respect to key technologies and energy sources are also assessed with the help of the TIMES model. Such key sensitivity parameters include agreements on global climate policies, the viability and potential role of carbon capture and storage, sustainability of biomass resources, and the future of nuclear power in Europe. Taking into account these uncertainties, the low carbon pathways are characterised with respect to their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
Achieving the targets for a low carbon economy is technically feasible under many different technology pathways. However, the results clearly indicate that the transition can occur most smoothly and with lowest impacts on the economies when a reasonably high diversity in the energy supply system is maintained. That would imply also the need for employing CCS, both within the energy sector and energy intensive process industries. Bioenergy remains the most important renewable energy source in all scenarios. The analysis indicates that a very high reliance on non-biomass renewables would require rapid technological development with a break-through in energy storage technology, and would entail considerable uncertainties with respect to both economy and technology.
We summarize the results of a recent statistical analysis of 216 nuclear energy accidents and incidents (events). The dataset is twice as large as the previous best available. We employ cost in US dollars as a severity measure to facilitate the comparison of different types and sizes of events, a method more complete and consistent that the industry-standard approach. Despite significant reforms following past disasters, we estimate that, with 388 reactors in operation, there is a 50% chance that a Fukushima event (or more costly) occurs every 60–150 years. We also find that the average cost of events per year is around the cost of the construction of a new plant. This dire outlook necessitates post-Fukushima reforms that will truly minimize extreme nuclear power risks. Nuclear power accidents are decreasing in frequency, but increasing in severity.
This paper outlines how an existing energy system can be transformed into a 100% renewable energy system. The transition is divided into a number of key stages which reflect key radical technological changes on the supply side of the energy system. Ireland is used as a case study,but in reality this reflects many typical energy systems today which use power plants for electricity, individual boilers for heat, and oil for transport. The seven stages analysed are 1) reference, 2) introduction of district heating, 3) installation of small and large-scale heat pumps,4) reducing grid regulation requirements, 5) adding flexible electricity demands and electric vehicles, 6) producing synthetic methanol/DME for transport, and finally 7) using synthetic gas to replace the remaining fossil fuels. For each stage, the technical and economic performance of the energy system is calculated. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system can provide the same end-user energy demands as today’s energy system and at the same price. Electricity will be the backbone of the energy system, but the flexibility in today’s electricity sector will be transferred from the supply side of the demand side in the future. Similarly, due to changes in the type of spending required in a 100% renewable energy system, this scenario will result in the creation of 100,000 additional jobs in Ireland compared to an energy system like today’s. These results are significant since they indicate that the transition to a 100% renewable energy system can begin today, without increasing the cost of energy in the short- or long-term, if the costs currently forecasted for 2050 become a reality.
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying material- and energyflows
and their associated impacts in the life cycles of products (i.e., goods and services). One of the
major goals of IEA PVPS Task 12 is to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, transparency
and quality of LCA to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results. The current report presents the
latest consensus LCA results among the authors, PV LCA experts in North America, Europe and Asia. At
this time consensus is limited to five technologies for which there are well-established and up-to-date LCI
data: mono- and multi-crystalline Si, CdTe CIGS, and high concentration PV (HCPV) using III/V cells. The
LCA indicators shown herein include Energy Payback Times (EPBT), Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG),
criteria pollutant emissions, and heavy metal emissions.
Life Cycle Inventories (LCIs) are necessary for LCA and the availability of such data is often the greatest
barrier for conducting LCA. The Task 12 LCA experts have put great efforts in gathering and compiling the
LCI data presented in this report. These include detailed inputs and outputs during manufacturing of cell,
wafer, module, and balance-of-system (i.e., structural- and electrical- components) that were estimated
from actual production and operation facilities. In addition to the LCI data that support the LCA results
presented herein, data are presented to enable analyses of various types of PV installations; these
include operational data of rooftop and ground-mount PV systems and country-specific PV-mixes. The LCI
datasets presented in this report are the latest that are available to the public describing the status in
2011 for crystalline Si, 2010-2011 for CdTe, 2010 for CIGS, and 2010 for HCPV technology.
This report provides an update of the life cycle inventory data in Section 5 of the previous report:
V. Fthenakis, H. C. Kim, R. Frischknecht, M. Raugei, P. Sinha, M. Stucki , 2011, Life Cycle Inventories and
Life Cycle Assessment of Photovoltaic Systems, International Energy Agency(IEA) PVPS Task 12, Report
T12-02:2011.
Updates are provided for the crystalline silicon PV global supply chain (Section 5.1), thin film PV module
manufacturing (Sections 5.2-5.3), PV mounting structures (Section 5.5), and country-specific electricity
grid mixes (Section 5.9). Other sections of this report are the same as in the previous report. Electronic
versions of the updated tables in Section 5 are available at IEA PVPS (http://www.iea-pvps.org; select
Task 12 under Archive) and treeze Ltd (http://treeze.ch; under Publications).
Background There is much uncertainty about the risks of leukaemia and lymphoma after repeated or protracted low-dose radiation exposure typical of occupational, environmental, and diagnostic medical settings. We quantified associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposures and leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma mortality among radiation-monitored adults employed in France, the UK, and the USA.
Methods We assembled a cohort of 308 297 radiation-monitored workers employed for at least 1 year by
the Atomic Energy Commission, AREVA Nuclear Cycle, or the National Electricity Company in France,
the Departments of Energy and Defence in the USA, and nuclear industry employers included in the
National Registry for Radiation Workers in the UK. The cohort was followed up for a total of 8·22 million person-years. We ascertained deaths caused by leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. We used Poisson regression to quantify associations between estimated red bone marrow absorbed dose and leukaemia and lymphoma mortality.
Findings Doses were accrued at very low rates (mean 1·1 mGy per year, SD 2·6). The excess relative risk of leukaemia mortality (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia) was 2·96 per Gy (90% CI 1·17–5·21; lagged 2 years), most notably because of an association between radiation dose and mortality from chronic myeloid leukaemia (excess relative risk per Gy 10·45, 90% CI 4·48–19·65).
Interpretation This study provides strong evidence of positive associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposure and leukaemia.
We provide, and perform a risk theoretic statistical analysis of, a dataset
that is 75 percent larger than the previous best dataset on nuclear incidents
and accidents, comparing three measures of severity: INES (International
Nuclear Event Scale), radiation released, and damage dollar losses. The annual
rate of nuclear accidents, with size above 20 Million US$, per plant, decreased
from the 1950s until dropping significantly after Chernobyl (April, 1986). The
rate is now roughly stable at 0.002 to 0.003, i.e., around 1 event per year
across the current fleet. The distribution of damage values changed after Three
Mile Island (TMI; March, 1979), where moderate damages were suppressed but the
tail became very heavy, being described by a Pareto distribution with tail
index 0.55. Further, there is a runaway disaster regime, associated with the
"dragon-king" phenomenon, amplifying the risk of extreme damage. In fact, the
damage of the largest event (Fukushima; March, 2011) is equal to 60 percent of
the total damage of all 174 accidents in our database since 1946. In dollar
losses we compute a 50% chance that (i) a Fukushima event (or larger) occurs in
the next 50 years, (ii) a Chernobyl event (or larger) occurs in the next 27
years and (iii) a TMI event (or larger) occurs in the next 10 years. Finally,
we find that the INES scale is inconsistent. To be consistent with damage, the
Fukushima disaster would need to have an INES level of 11, rather than the
maximum of 7.
To properly evaluate the prospects for commercially competitive battery electric vehicles (BEV) one must have accurate information on current and predicted cost of battery packs. The literature reveals that costs are coming down, but with large uncertainties on past, current and future costs of the dominating Li-ion technology. This paper presents an original systematic review, analysing over 80 different estimates reported 2007-2014 to systematically trace the costs of Li-ion battery packs for BEV manufacturers. We show that industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US410 per kWh, and that the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh, and has declined by 8% annually. Learning rate, the cost reduction following a cumulative doubling of production, is found to be between 6 and 9%, in line with earlier studies on vehicle battery technology. We reveal that the costs of Li-ion battery packs continue to decline and that the costs among market leaders are much lower than previously reported. This has significant implications for the assumptions used when modelling future energy and transport systems and permits an optimistic outlook for BEVs contributing to low-carbon transport.
Towards low-carbon energy systems, there are countries with ongoing plans for expanding their nuclear power capacity, and simultaneously advancing the role of variable renewable energy sources (RES), namely wind and solar energy. This crossroads of capital-intensive, baseload power production and uncontrollable, intermittent RES may entail new challenges in the optimal and economic operation of power systems. This study examines this case by hourly analysis of a national-level energy system with the EnergyPLAN modeling tool, coupled with wind integration simulations (including uncertainty) implemented using MATLAB. We evaluate the maximum feasible wind integration under different scenarios for nuclear power plants, energy demand, and the flexibility of energy infrastructure for a real case study (Finland). We propose wind-nuclear compromise charts to envision the impact of any mix of these two technologies on four parameters: total costs, power exchange, carbon emissions, and renewable energy integration. The results suggest that nuclear power constrains the room for maximum uptake of wind energy by a descending parabolic relationship. If nuclear power production exceeds 50% of the total power demand, wind will be unlikely to penetrate in shares over 15% of the respective demand. Moreover, we investigate the role of four flexibility options: demand side management, electrical energy storage, smart electric heating, and large-scale heat pumps (backed with thermal energy storage). Heat pumps (which are in connection with combined heat and power (CHP) and district heating systems) offer the highest efficiency in balancing excess power from variable RES. However, power-to-heat options offer a limited capability for absorbing high-level excess power, as oversupply arises mainly in the periods with relatively low demand for heat. This calls for longer-term energy storage and/or other flexibility options to achieve the planned targets in wind-nuclear scenarios.
A primary endeavor of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to synthesize and analyze data that is useful to the renewable energy industry on a global scale [1]. One goal of POWER is to provide data to the renewable energy industry in quantities and terms compatible with this industries design and engineering tools and for locations where ground site data is not readily available. The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set and web site have been a valuable resource for a growing user community involved in renewable energy. The POWER project continues to improve upon information available via the SSE web site. This paper describes the availability of higher spatial resolution assimilated data in a new release of SSE (i.e. SSE 6.0) that extends the period of coverage to 22 years.
Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) is a thermochemical process used in the production of charred matter similar in composition to coal. It involves the use of wet, carbohydrate feedstock, a relatively low temperature environment (180 °C-350 °C) and high autogenous pressure (up to 2.4 MPa) in a closed system. Various applications of the solid char product exist, opening the way for a range of biomass feedstock materials to be exploited that have so far proven to be troublesome due to high water content or other factors. Sludge materials are investigated as candidates for industrial-scale HTC treatment in fuel production. In general, HTC treatment of pulp and paper industry sludge (PPS) and anaerobically digested municipal sewage sludge (ADS) using existing technology is competitive with traditional treatment options, which range in price from EUR 30-80 per ton of wet sludge. PPS and ADS can be treated by HTC for less than EUR 13 and 33, respectively. Opportunities and challenges related to HTC exist, as this relatively new technology moves from laboratory and pilot-scale production to an industrial scale. Feedstock materials, end-products, process conditions and local markets ultimately determine the feasibility of a given HTC operation. However, there is potential for sludge materials to be converted to sustainable bio-coal fuel in a Finnish context.
As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
The energy demand of photovoltaic (PV) systems is an important part of energy sustainability of PV systems. PV systems are considered sustainable energy systems when the produced energy is higher than the energy needed for the PV system on a life-cycle basis. This paper employs financial learning curve concepts to determine the energy demand of major PV module technologies and systems. General PV module and PV system energy learning curves are calculated by weighting energy demand of different PV systems according to their share in PV market. Additionally, the contribution of module efficiency for reducing specific energy demand is considered. We find an energy learning rate of 17% for PV modules and 14% for PV systems on the basis of a market weighted mix of technologies and volumes. Energy payback time (EPBT) and energy return on energy investment (EROI) in 2010 and for the year 2020 are calculated via the energy learning rate and indicates a further significant progress in energetic productivity of PV systems. To the knowledge of the authors this publication shows for the first time that the energy consumption in PV manufacturing follows the log-linear learning curve law similar to the evolution of production cost. This allows calculating EPBT or EROI for future prognoses. Furthermore, it shows significant evidence of how sustainable PV systems are and justifies their growing share in the energy market.
Integrating high shares of renewable energy (RE) sources in future energy systems requires a variety of storage solutions and flexibility measures. In this work, a 100% RE scenario was developed for Finland in 2050 for all energy sectors using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool to find a least-cost system configuration that suited the national context. Hourly data was analysed to determine the roles of various energy storage solutions, including stationary batteries, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) connections, thermal energy storage and grid gas storage for Power-toGas (PtG) technologies. V2G storage and stationary batteries facilitated use of high shares of variable RE on a daily and weekly basis. Thermal energy storage and synthetic grid gas storage aided in resolving seasonality issues related to variable RE generation plus facilitated efficient use of other forms of RE, such as biomass, and Combined Heat and Power to maintain the reliability and independence of the energy system throughout the year. In this scenario, 30 GWp of installed solar PV, 35 GWe of onshore wind power and 5 GWe of offshore wind power are supported by 20 GWh of stationary Lithium-ion batteries, 150 GWh of V2G storage (Li-ion), 20 GWhth of thermal energy storage, and 3800 GWhth of grid gas storage. Discharge of electricity and heat from storage represented 15% of end-user demand. Thermal storage discharge was 4% of end-user heat demand. In the power sector, 21% of end-user demand was satisfied by electricity storage discharge, the majority of this (87%) coming from V2G connections. Grid gas storage discharge represented 26% of gas demand. These observations suggest that storage solutions will be an important part of a 100% renewable Finnish energy system.
This paper investigates the causality among economic growth, renewable energy consumption, capital and labor for new EU member countries for the period of 1990–2009, by using asymmetric causality test approach and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical results support that renewable energy consumption has positive impacts on economic growth for all investigated countries. But only for Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland, and Slovenia there is statistically significant impact on economic growth has found. And also supports neutrality hypothesis for Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia while the conservation hypothesis is present for Czech Republic. The fact that there is a causal relationship from economic growth to renewable energy consumption and the growth hypothesis is supported for Bulgaria, referring to causality from energy consumption to economic growth.
A district energy system, especially one employing a large heat storage facility, may be able to tap energy sources that would not otherwise be suitable owing to irregular occurrence or difficulty in transporting the energy to demand centres. To be viable as thermal energy for buildings, sources such as geothermal, solar, and nuclear energy (which is likely to be available in off-peak electrical demand periods) all require at least one of the following: an extensive network for distribution of the energy, large-scale demand applications, or large off-peak storage capacity. These requirements have hindered the use of these sources in individual buildings, but they are compatible with a district energy system. -from Author.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption, CO2 emissions, renewable energy and real GDP per capita using dynamic panel for nine developed countries over the period 1990–2013. Capital and labor are included as additional variables. Results shown that there is a unidirectional causality running from renewable energy consumption to real GDP per capita for the whole panel at short run; this implies that policies for reducing energy consumption may not retard economic growth and income. However, there is no links between nuclear energy consumption and real GDP per capita, but a unidirectional causality from nuclear energy consumption to labor. Moreover, a bidirectional causality between labor and capital, and between CO2 emissions and capital are found. In addition, there is a unidirectional causal relationship from labor to CO2 emissions, while among other variables no causal relationship is found.
In the long run, there exists also a bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and real GDP per capita, which complain that renewable energy is a crucial component for economic growth. In addition, results revealed a unidirectional causality from GDP to CO2 emissions.
Presentation at the LUT Doctorial School Conference in Lappeenranta at December 10, 2015.
Photovoltaics (PV) is expected to become one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation during the next decades. The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of PV has already reached grid parity with retail electricity in many markets and is approaching wholesale parity in some countries. In this paper, it is estimated that the PV LCOE in main European markets is going to decrease from 2015 to 2030 by about 45% and to 2050 by about 60%. The LCOE for utility-scale PV in Europe will be about 25-45 €/MWh in 2030 and about 15-30 €/MWh in 2050 depending on the location. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the most important parameter together with the annual irradiation in the calculation of the PV LCOE. The uncertainty in capital and operational expenditure (CAPEX and OPEX) is relatively less important while the system lifetime and degradation have only a minor effect. The work for this paper has been carried out under the framework of the EU PV Technology Platform.
There are several barriers to achieving an energy system based entirely on renewable energy (RE), not the least of which is doubt that high capacities of solar PV can be feasible due to long, cold and dark Finnish winters. Technologically, several energy storage options can facilitate high penetrations of solar PV (up to 29 TWhe, or 16% of annual electricity production) and other variable forms of RE. These options include electric and thermal storage systems in addition to a robust role of Power-toGas (PtG) technology. Approximately 45% of electricity produced from solar PV was used directly over the course of the year, which shows the relevance of storage. In terms of public policy, several mechanisms are available to promote various forms of RE. However, many of these are contested in Finland by actors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo rather than by those without faith in RE conversion or storage technologies. These vested interests must be overcome before a zero fossil carbon future can begin.
In this paper we examine the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth across the G7 countries, using annual data for the period of 1990-2011. By employing the causality methodology proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) [8], we investigate if there is a causal relationship between the variables. The advantage of this methodology is that it takes into account possible slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency in a multivariate panel. The empirical results support the existence of a bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and renewable energy for the overall panel. However, looking at the individual results for each country, the neutrality hypothesis is confirmed for Canada, Italy and the US; while for France and UK there is a unidirectional causality from GDP to renewable energy, and the opposite for Germany and Japan.
A clear consensus exists in German society that renewable energy resources have to play a dominant role in the future German energy supply system. However, many questions are still under discussion; for instance the relevance of the different technologies such as photovoltaic systems and wind energy converters installed offshore in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Concerns also exist about the cost of a future energy system mainly based on renewable energy. In the work presented here we tried to answer some of those questions. Guiding questions for this study were: (1) is it possible to meet the German energy demand with 100% renewable energy, considering the available technical potential of the main renewable energy resources? (2) what is the overall annual cost of such an energy system once it has been implemented? (3) what is the best combination of renewable energy converters, storage units, energy converters and energy-saving measures? In order to answer these questions, we carried out many simulation calculations using REMod-D, a model we developed for this purpose. This model is described in Part I of this publication. To date this model covers only part of the energy system, namely the electricity and heat sectors, which correspond to about 62% of Germany's current energy demand. The main findings of our work indicate that it is possible to meet the total electricity and heat demand (space heating, hot water) of the entire building sector with 100% renewable energy within the given technical limits. This is based on the assumption that the heat demand of the building sector is significantly reduced by at least 60% or more compared to today's demand. Another major result of our analysis shows that - once the transformation of the energy system has been completed - supplying electricity and heat only from renewables is no more expensive than the existing energy supply.
Power-to-gas (PtG) technology has received considerable attention in recent years. However, it has been rather difficult to find profitable business models and niche markets so far. PtG systems can be applied in a broad variety of input and output conditions, mainly determined by prices for electricity, hydrogen, oxygen, heat, natural gas, bio-methane, fossil CO2 emissions, bio-CO2 and grid services, but also full load hours and industrial scaling. Optimized business models are based on an integrated value chain approach for a most beneficial combination of input and output parameters. The financial success is evaluated by a standard annualized profit and loss calculation and a subsequent return on equity consideration. Two cases of PtG integration into an existing pulp mill as well as a nearby bio-diesel plant are taken into account. Commercially available PtG technology is found to be profitable in case of a flexible operation mode offering electricity grid services. Next generation technology, available at the end of the 2010s, in combination with renewables certificates for the transportation sector could generate a return on equity of up to 100% for optimized conditions in an integrated value chain approach. This outstanding high profitability clearly indicates the
potential for major PtG markets to be developed rather in the transportation sector and chemical industry than in the electricity sector as seasonal storage option as often proposed.
Further development of the North-East Asian energy system is at a crossroads due to severe limitations of the current conventional energy based system. For North-East Asia it is proposed that the excellent solar and wind resources of the Gobi desert could enable the transformation towards a 100% renewable energy system. An hourly resolved model describes an energy system for North-East Asia, subdivided into 14 regions interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grids. Simulations are made for highly centralized, decentralized and countrywide grids scenarios. The results for total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are 0.065 and 0.081 €/(kW&h) for the centralized and decentralized approaches for 2030 assumptions. The presented results for 100% renewable resources-based energy systems are lower in LCOE by about 30–40% than recent findings in Europe for conventional alternatives. This research clearly indicates that a 100% renewable resources based energy system is THE real policy option.
The paper reviews different approaches, technologies, and strategies to manage large-scale schemes of variable renewable electricity such as solar and wind power. We consider both supply and demand side measures. In addition to presenting energy system flexibility measures, their importance to renewable electricity is discussed. The flexibility measures available range from traditional ones such as grid extension or pumped hydro storage to more advanced strategies such as demand side management and demand side linked approaches, e.g. the use of electric vehicles for storing excess electricity, but also providing grid support services. Advanced batteries may offer new solutions in the future, though the high costs associated with batteries may restrict their use to smaller scale applications. Different “P2Y”-type of strategies, where P stands for surplus renewable power and Y for the energy form or energy service to which this excess in converted to, e.g. thermal energy, hydrogen, gas or mobility are receiving much attention as potential flexibility solutions, making use of the energy system as a whole. To “functionalize” or to assess the value of the various energy system flexibility measures, these need often be put into an electricity/energy market or utility service context. Summarizing, the outlook for managing large amounts of RE power in terms of options available seems to be promising.
Mit der vorliegenden Studie wird die (fiktive) Pr¨ amie einer Haftpflichtversicherung f¨ ur den Schaden- fall, der aus einem nuklearen Katastrophenfall auf der Grundlage eines Kernkraftwerk-St¨ or- oder Unfalls resultiert, ermittelt. Grundlage stellen bereits ver¨ offentlichte Studien zur Eintrittswahr- scheinlichkeit und zur m¨ oglichen Schadenh¨ ohe dar. Die Autoren beziehen dar¨ uber hinaus eigene getroffene Annahmen und daraus resultierende Bewertungen hinsichtlich dieser beiden Faktoren zur Bestimmung eines Risikos in die Berechnungen ein.
Finland is to increase the share of RES (renewable energy sources) up to 38% in final energy consumption by 2020. While benefiting from local biomass resources Finnish energy system is deemed to achieve this goal, increasing the share of other intermittent renewables is under development, namely wind power and solar energy. Yet the maximum flexibility of the existing energy system in integration of renewable energy is not investigated, which is an important step before undertaking new renewable energy obligations. This study aims at filling this gap by hourly analysis and comprehensive modeling of the energy system including electricity, heat, and transportation, by employing EnergyPLAN tool. Focusing on technical and economic implications, we assess the maximum potential of different RESs separately (including bioenergy, hydropower, wind power, solar heating and PV, and heat pumps), as well as an optimal mix of different technologies. Furthermore, we propose a new index for assessing the maximum flexibility of energy systems in absorbing variable renewable energy. The results demonstrate that wind energy can be harvested at maximum levels of 18-19% of annual power demand (approx. 16 TWh/a), without major enhancements in the flexibility of energy infrastructure. With today's energy demand, the maximum feasible renewable energy for Finland is around 44-50% by an optimal mix of different technologies, which promises 35% reduction in carbon emissions from 2012's level. Moreover, Finnish energy system is flexible to augment the share of renewables in gross electricity consumption up to 69-72%, at maximum. Higher shares of RES calls for lower energy consumption (energy efficiency) and more flexibility in balancing energy supply and consumption (e.g. by energy storage).
The excellent solar resources of Israel make it possible to reach the target of 100% RE, independent of fossil fuel supply in a rather close future. For now the development of large PV capacities is restrained by battery storage costs: before reaching a cost level of 200 €/kWh, batteries are not competitive and installations of thermal storages and CSP are cost optimal. The role of CSP remains unclear; however, the high competitiveness of PV-battery may limit CSP to a minor role. PV self-consumption plays a significant role in the energy transformation in Israel.
Increasing demand for energy worldwide, driven largely by the developing world, coupled with the tremendous hidden costs associated with traditional energy sources necessitates an unprecedented fraction of the future global energy mix come from sustainable, renewable sources. The potential solar energy resource dwarfs that of all other renewable sources combined, yet only two photovoltaic technologies are known to have the potential to be scaled up to make dramatic impact on the overall energy mix: silicon and organic photovoltaics. In this paper, we present the long-term sustainability advantages of organics when compared to silicon and other photovoltaic technologies in terms of energy payback time and global warming potential while also discussing the outlook for transitional applications of organic solar cells.
Experimental results of a combined absorption and electrodialysis process for the CO2 recovery from the atmosphere are presented as the first step in an environmentally neutral fuel production. Furthermore, preliminary results on the electrochemical reduction of CO2 on porous electrodes in aqueous solutions, on mixed oxide electrodes in a high pressure electrochemical cell in liquid CO2 and some aspects of the electrochemical adsorption and reduction of CO2 on Pd-Fe alloys are discussed.
Today there are several opportunities for Renewable Energy Sources (RES), as well as for nuclear technologies to contribute to mitigating climate change and to promote sustainable development (SD). In this framework, the main scope of the present study is to provide an analysis and a direct point-to-point comparison of five promising renewable energy technologies, namely, biomass gasification, molten carbonate fuel cells fed with wood gas, Solar Photovoltaics (PV), solar thermal and offshore wind, in contrast to two advanced nuclear technologies, European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) and European Fast Reactor (EFR). The examination was made with regards to technology characteristics, sustainability factors and potential deployment drivers and barriers, obtained from relative studies. The analysis indicated that the examined RES and nuclear technologies both offer substantial contribution to climate change by effectively producing limited amounts of GHG emissions, which are close to zero for the nuclear technologies. The RES produce no significant waste and are generally favored by policy incentives, but some of them are plagued by high production costs and low efficiency. On the contrary, the examined nuclear technologies, despite their enhanced safety, reduced costs and minimized waste, still have to face the major issues of weapons proliferation, safety, waste handling and high costs as well as public acceptance, which have been affected by the recent Fukushima accident.
Solar power plants have become common during last few years in the middle Europe, especially in Germany. On the other hand, solar power has not grown in the Nordic countries, in spite of Denmark after the favorable net-metering legislation in the year 2011. Finland is one of these countries that has low solar power capacity. Many Nordic countries, such as Finland, have relatively low electricity price that is supposed to cause challenges for the viability of solar power production without legislation or does it? In this paper, the potential for solar power production in Nordic conditions is studied, simulated, and measured. A large scale solar power plant is built to Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT).
Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells offer high efficiencies and several advantages in the production process compared to conventional crystalline silicon solar cells. We performed a life-cycle assessment to identify the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint, energy payback time (EPBT) and cumulative energy demand of four different SHJ solar cell designs. We analyse these environmental impacts for cell processing and complete systems for both current and prospective designs. On the basis of in-plane irradiation of 1700 kWh/m2, results for current designs show that life-cycle GHG emissions could be 32 gCO2-eq/kWh for complete SHJ photovoltaic (PV) systems (module efficiencies of 18.4%), compared with 38 gCO2-eq/kWh for conventional monocrystalline silicon systems (module efficiency of 16.1%). The EPBT of all SHJ designs was found to be 1.5 years, compared with 1.8 years for the monocrystalline PV system. Cell processing contributes little (≤6%) to the overall environmental footprint of SHJ PV systems. Among cell processing steps, vacuum based deposition contributes substantially to the overall results, with 55–80%. Atomic layer deposition of thin films was found to have a significantly lower environmental footprint compared to plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition and sputtering. Copper-based compared with silver-based metallization was shown to reduce the impact of this processing step by 74–84%. Increases in cell efficiency, use of thin silicon wafers and replacement of silver-based with copper-based metallization could result in life-cycle GHG emissions for systems to be reduced to 20 gCO2-eq/kWh for SHJ systems and 25 gCO2-eq/kWh for monocrystalline system, while EPBT could drop to 0.9 and 1.2 years, respectively. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
An analysis of 401 power plant and transmission projects in 57 countries suggests that costs are underestimated in three out of every four projects, with only 39 projects across the entire sample experiencing no cost overrun or underrun. Hydroelectric dams, nuclear power plants, wind farms and solar facilities each have their own unique set of construction risks.
A serious accident at Fukushima Dai-Ichi NPP triggered radioactive emission to the atmosphere on 12 March 2011. The results of gamma spectrometric measurements of both gaseous and aerosol fraction of the air, collected in Krakow over the period from March 21 till the end of May 2011, as well as wet and dry deposition recorded from March till the end of October 2011, are presented in this paper. Krakow happened to be the first Polish location where radioactive isotopes characteristic for reactor releases, such as 131I, 132I, 129mTe, 132Te, 134Cs, 136Cs, and 137Cs, were detected. The maximum activity for aerosols equal to (5.73 ± 0.35) mBq/m3, (0.461 ± 0.041) mBq/m3 and (0.436 ± 0.038) mBq/m3 for 131I, 134Cs and 137Cs, respectively, was recorded for March 29, 2011. The data on the fallout are also given. The results of the radiochemical analysis of aerosol samples showed no traces of plutonium or americium isotopes associated with the disaster to be detected. The results of air activity concentration from Fukushima accident observed in Central Europe, Poland, in comparison to those of Chernobyl accident observed in Japan are presented and discussed. The comparison has revealed a discrepancy in the recognized relative scale of both accidents, and important difference in long distance transport of contamination, to exist. An attempt to explain the variation in the activity ratios between the aerosol fraction for 131I and 137Cs as resulting from exchange between the gaseous and aerosol fractions of 131I while the contamination had been propagating, is made.
This paper defines the concept of 4th Generation District Heating (4GDH) including the relations to District Cooling and the concepts of smart energy and smart thermal grids. The motive is to identify the future challenges of reaching a future renewable non-fossil heat supply as part of the implementation of overall sustainable energy systems. The basic assumption is that district heating and cooling has an important role to play in future sustainable energy systems – including 100 percent renewable energy systems – but the present generation of district heating and cooling technologies will have to be developed further into a new generation in order to play such a role. Unlike the first three generations, the development of 4GDH involves meeting the challenge of more energy efficient buildings as well as being an integrated part of the operation of smart energy systems, i.e. integrated smart electricity, gas and thermal grids.
This paper presents the global energy supply potential of concentrating solar thermal power (CSP). Based on
the DLR-ISIS data for global direct normal irradiance, an estimate is derived for global potential CSP areas
and their electricity supply potential. Assumptions are included for land use restrictions and land use
efficiency. Including data of global distribution of population distances of centers of CSP electricity supply to
human electricity demand are estimated. Performance characteristics of high voltage direct current (HVDC)
power transmission is used for analysing global energy supply potential of CSP. Results are shown for
different regions in the world, different distances to potential CSP areas and for electric and non-electric
energy needs. The outcome clearly shows that CSP has the potential to become a major source of global
energy supply. This supports an important assumption in the DESERTEC concept, which assigns large
fraction of power supply to CSP.