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Vision and initial feasibility analysis of a recarbonised Finnish energy system for 2050
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... Because of their high impact in the dialogue surrounding 100% RE systems, EnergyPLAN and the LUT model are considered in more depth to understand their model structures and consequent effects on 100% RE scenario development. EnergyPLAN, introduced in 2006 [46], has been used in multi-sector 100% RE studies for the Aalborg Municipality [47], Åland Islands [48,49], Macedonia [50], Denmark [51,52], Scotland [53], Ireland [54,55], Finland [56], South East Europe [57], and the European Union [12], among others. The LUT model, introduced in 2015 [58] and inspired by an earlier model [59], has been utilised in 100% RE studies for global analyses of the power sector [15] but also all sectors [16], detailed sector coupling studies including the industry sector [17], applied for major regions as transition model for Europe [60] and Northeast Asia [61], while overnight scenarios have been applied for all major regions [14], country studies have been applied for single-node overnight [62], single-node transition [63] and multi-node transition [64] cases. ...
... EnergyPLAN allows for smart charging and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) connections as additional forms of flexibility storage, whose benefits are discussed in Refs. [49,56]. However, because the LUT model does not yet have smart charging or V2G capability, these options were not utilised, and all electricity for the road mode in the transport sector was treated as dump charge in EnergyPLAN. ...
... An additional feature that is allowed in Ener-gyPLAN but not capable in the LUT model is the capability to define flexible electricity demands on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. While flexible electricity demand is not a requirement for the integration of RE as demonstrated by this study and found by Kwon and Østergaard [100], Child and Breyer [56,101] find that flexible demand has a role in offsetting household and industrial electricity demands according to PV generation profiles, which can serve to reduce storage requirements and curtailment levels. With 50% of transport electricity demands being allocated to smart charging and daily flexibility corresponding to 10% of total annual electricity demand, total annualised system costs could be reduced by 0.13 b€. ...
As the discourse surrounding 100% renewable energy systems has evolved, several energy system modelling tools have been developed to demonstrate the technical feasibility and economic viability of fully sustainable, sector coupled energy systems. While the characteristics of these tools vary among each other, their purpose remains consistent in integrating renewable energy technologies into future energy systems. This paper examines two such energy system models, the LUT Energy System Transition model, an optimisation model, and the EnergyPLAN simulation tool, a simulation model, and develops cost-optimal scenarios under identical assumptions. This paper further analyses different novel modelling approaches used by modellers. Scenarios are developed using the LUT model for Sun Belt countries, for the case of Bolivia, to examine the effects of multi and single-node structuring, and the effects of overnight and energy transition scenarios are analysed. Results for all scenarios indicate a solar PV dominated energy system; however, limitations arise in the sector coupling capabilities in EnergyPLAN, leading it to have noticeably higher annualised costs compared to the single-node scenario from the LUT model despite similar primary levelised costs of electricity. Multi-nodal results reveal that for countries with rich solar resources, high transmission from regions of best solar resources adds little value compared to fully decentralised systems. Finally, compared to the overnight scenarios, transition scenarios demonstrate the impact of considering legacy energy systems in sustainable energy system analyses.
... Several studies have proposed the large-scale integration of renewable energy systems for Finland 12 and in a broader context also for the whole of Europe. 13,14 In these studies, electricity storage has been included as part of the solution at least in some of the presented scenarios. ...
... The selected studies mostly feature an hourly resolution and a single operation year. [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] The selected studies feature different electricity storage technologies. While nearly all the selected studies feature batteries, hydrogen or power-to-gas options were additionally considered in several studies 12,16,18,21,23 as were compressed air storages. ...
... [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] The selected studies feature different electricity storage technologies. While nearly all the selected studies feature batteries, hydrogen or power-to-gas options were additionally considered in several studies 12,16,18,21,23 as were compressed air storages. 14,21 Some studies only considered short-term storages. ...
The Government of Finland is targeting carbon neutrality by 2035. Increasing electrification emphasizes the need for significant emission reductions in power generation. As reduction in power generation emissions is partly realized by increase in intermittent energy sources, electricity storage may become an important part of a carbon neutral power system. This study investigates the behavior of electrical storages as a part of a large-scale national carbon-free power system model. As a case study, a three-year model of a carbon-free Finnish power system set in 2050 with the aim to identify various factors affecting electricity storage, and the results are compared with literature. The proposed case study features various scenarios with a national power system with very high amounts of renewables and a significant hydro capacity, while amount of combustion-based energy production is minimal. In addition, hydrological stress scenarios representing historically severe drought years were introduced. The amount of electricity storage needed was found to be most affected by nuclear and electricity trading capacities, which is consistent with literature findings. The data period used as basis for modeling also affected the need for electricity storage, as interannual variations in renewable production were found to have a large effect on modeled results. The needed electricity storage capacities increased significantly in the stress scenarios. The electricity storage need was found to be seasonal in nature, but this may be partly due to missing demand flexibility within the modeled power system, which caused very large individual storage discharge peaks. The results emphasize the need to take several years of historical data into account to ensure system availability in different conditions.
Highlights
• Nuclear energy was found to decrease system costs in a 100% carbon-free power system.
• Multi-year modeling is essential to secure system availability due to the important role of hydropower and seasonal wind variability.
• Electricity storages were found to be seasonal in nature. The main reason was exceptionally low windiness during individual periods, which resulted in large but temporarily short power deficits due to insufficient flexibility obtained from hydropower and power imports. This was especially evident in stress scenarios and mainly contributed to the higher costs in low-nuclear scenarios.
• Detailed hydropower modelling of historically exceptional dry seasons in Finland was utilized as one stress scenario. Exceptionally, dry long-term period increased the need for electricity storages significantly due to the lost flexibility offered by hydro and reduced electricity import capacities.
... More importantly, however, these sectors can act as sources of demand response, having promising prospects to provide flexibility and improve the efficiency of the energy system [164]. This has been shown in prior studies when analyzing the potentials to shift industrial [165], thermal [166], and electric transport loads [167]. This flexibility can also be reaped within the electricity sector, by considering flexible demands responsive to the costs of generation dispatch, which could cover second priority loads. ...
... In the European context, hourly electricity demands are readily available from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) [170]. ENTSO-E data is used in several national scope studies [81,147,[171][172][173][174], although others source data directly from relevant national bodies [133,166,[175][176][177] or as a synthesis of ENTSO-E and national statistics, via the Open Power System database [178]. When data is unavailable for countries, or subnational regions are being modelled, scaling factors are applied based on aggregated demand statistics [147,179], relative population magnitudes [133,142,177], or additional economic parameters and weighting ratios [180]; in all such cases, it is not possible to verify validity. ...
... Yet, it is clear that demand changes over time. Roadmaps for energy systems, such as the EIA international energy outlook [182], include estimations of the increase in demand and have been used to scale the magnitude of model input profiles accordingly [166,183]. However, the magnitude of demand is not the only element that will change, the profile shape is also variable. ...
Energy system models are crucial to plan energy transition pathways and understand their impacts. A vast range of energy system modelling tools is available, providing modelling practitioners, planners, and decision-makers with multiple alternatives to represent the energy system according to different technical and methodological considerations. To better understand this landscape, here we identify current trends in the field of energy system modelling. First, we survey previous review studies, identifying their distinct focus areas and review methodologies. Second, we gather information about 54 energy system modelling tools directly from model developers and users. Unlike previous questionnaire-based studies solely focusing on technical descriptions, we include application aspects of the modelling tools, such as perceived policy-relevance, user accessibility, and model linkages. We find that, to assess the possible applications and to build a common understanding of the capabilities of these modelling tools, it is necessary to engage in dialogue with developers and users. We identify three main trends of increasing modelling of cross-sectoral synergies, growing focus on open access, and improved temporal detail to deal with planning future scenarios with high levels of variable renewable energy sources. However, key challenges remain in terms of representing high resolution energy demand in all sectors, understanding how tools are coupled together, openness and accessibility, and the level of engagement between tool developers and policy/decision-makers.
... In some works [29,32], the general overview is functional for the analysis of potential configurations that can be applied to a case study. Other works [30,34,38,39] focus mainly on the hydrogen impact in the NG pipelines, with a particular attention to the potential risks associated with hydrogen embrittlement. Several studies [31,33,35] focus on the application of compressed mixtures in internal combustion engines in the transport sector. ...
... Different demand-response technologies based on short-term energy storage, such as vehicle-to-grid or power-toheat strategies, can substantially increase the renewable penetration. However, moving towards the complete decarbonisation of the power system will require the extensive implementation of long-term energy storages and PtG systems will play a key role in the integration of excess renewable generation [39]. ...
This paper attempts to give a broad overview on technologies progress status, effects, perspectives, and issues associated to H2NG widespread applications. It deepens and completes the content of previous reviews by including hitherto unreviewed aspects as far as possible. To do so, a holistic approach has been used by surveying technical, energy, environmental, economic and safety issues related to the hydrogen mixtures’ use. This review aims to provide support for a broader understanding of the problem, starting from the simple list of mixtures properties up to their impact on both NG pipelines and end-use devices. Hydrogen injection affects several blend characteristics and gas network parameters. Mixing limits are also related to Wobbe index variations and safety aspects due to the flashback risk. Numerous works have shown that hydrogen fractions of 10% allow parameters to be kept within acceptable ranges, and up to 20% are not related to significant risks.
... Cost assumptions adopted for financial analysis of 2019 and 2030 scenarios [5,58]. [58], the total investment cost of a charging station for 3 million vehicles was 10% of the total investment of the Lithium-ion BEVs. ...
... Cost assumptions adopted for financial analysis of 2019 and 2030 scenarios [5,58]. [58], the total investment cost of a charging station for 3 million vehicles was 10% of the total investment of the Lithium-ion BEVs. Thus, we consider the same approach to estimate the total investment cost of the charging stations for the BEVs considered in this study. ...
Globally, efforts are underway to keep global warming well below 1.5-2 • C as outlined in the Paris Agreement. Ghana plans to achieve 10 % renewable energy (RE) participation in the national energy mix by 2030. In the Renewable Energy Masterplan 2030, the target is a total installed RE utility scale of 1094.63 MW. In the current work, we propose a better pathway to gradual decarbonization of the Ghanaian energy sector (power, transport, industry, residential, and others) at higher technical levels of variable RE (VRE) penetration, 0 critical excess electricity production (CEEP), and lower cost than the 2030 Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario. In our proposed scenario, High Renewable Energy Penetration (HREP) 2030, we assess the overarching role of electric vehicle integration, power-to-gas (hydrogen), and pumped hydro storage technologies in maximizing VRE penetration in Ghana. The results from the current study show that it is technically feasible to include solar and wind power penetrations of 32.66 % and 38.11 % in the 2030 HREP scenario compared to the 2.64 % and 1.99 % of the 2030 BAU case, respectively. The HREP scenario will ultimately lead to 26.45, 30.86, and 23.34 % contribution of solar, wind, and thermal in the total electricity production in 2030 compared to the 2.36, 1.78, and 74 % of the BAU scenario, respectively. The CO2 emissions and its cost in the HREP case are 22.5 and 22.81 % lower than in the BAU case, and the total annual cost of the former is 12 % lower than the latter. The total electricity production from wind and solar energy alone in the 2030 HREP will create an additional 723 jobs and 11.96 Mt avoided CO2 emissions. The proposal made in the current study could usher in a long-term transition pathway that leads from the current fossil-based system to an affordable, efficient, sustainable, and secure energy future for Ghana. The findings presented in the current study should be of significance to decision-makers in formulating and adopting zero and low-carbon strategies for long-term decarbonization targets and planning in Ghana beyond 2030.
... Jagemann et al. [7] evaluated the impact of the 100% RES policy o power industry in Europe to assess the feasibility of realizing a 100% RES by 2050. sidering the energy market and the potential of renewable resources, Hansen et a studied a transition strategy for Germany to achieve 100% renewable energy by Child et al. [8] established a model based on the energy scenario of Finland in the f to assess the feasibility of realizing 100% RES by 2050. Jacobson et al. [9] analyzed a to achieve 100% renewable energy supply in the United States by 2050 by considerin renewable energy distribution in 50 states. ...
... Considering the energy market and the potential of renewable resources, Hansen et al. [2] studied a transition strategy for Germany to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050. Child et al. [8] established a model based on the energy scenario of Finland in the future to assess the feasibility of realizing 100% RES by 2050. Jacobson et al. [9] analyzed a way to achieve 100% renewable energy supply in the United States by 2050 by considering the renewable energy distribution in 50 states. ...
A 100% renewable energy system (RES) satisfies a user’s energy demand using only renewable energy, which is an important energy supply in China given that the government aims to realize carbon neutrality by 2060. The design and operation of 100% RESs in different areas would vary significantly due to the impacts of climates and geographical features. This study aimed to investigate the economic and environmental performance of 100% RESs for residential communities in different areas of China. In total, 30 typical cities were chosen based on the climate characteristics and the availability of renewable energy resources. The genetic algorithm was selected to obtain the optimal design of the 100% RES in each area by taking the minimum total annual cost and the minimum CO2 emissions as optimization objectives. The results showed that 100% RESs were dominated by solar energy and biomass. The investment could be recovered in 8 years if the economic performance was optimized in most areas, but the payback period became longer when the 100% RES was optimized when considering environmental performance. The emissions could be reduced by 86–99% for CO2 and 64–97% for NOx. The results of this study would provide data support for the investment of 100% RESs in rural or suburban areas of China.
... In any case, most of the studies conclude that a 100 % RE electric system is technologically feasible [9] and also economically viable [10][11][12]. Some studies [13][14][15][16] at the country level on 100 % RE systems, for all end-use of energy, have revealed that it would be technically possible in the long-term, where electrification, sustainable fuels production and sectoral integration would be pivotal. However, there is still a discussion about the pathways to go down for a fully sustainable energy system. ...
... The third was sustainable fuels production, essentially based on PtX, to produce green hydrogen first and then synthetic gas and liquid fuels. These vital elements are fully in line with several studies [13][14][15][16][91][92][93][94][95][96][97][98][99] applied to different scales in other parts of the world, and with proposed actions by IRENA [100] and REN21 [7] reports. ...
The aim of this research is to analyse the impact of renewable energy (RE) technologies and sector coupling via analysing the transition pathways towards a sustainable energy system in Chile. Four energy transition scenarios for the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors were assessed using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The current policy scenario was modelled and compared with three best policy scenarios. The results showed that the transition to a 100 % renewable-based energy system by 2050 is technically feasible. Further, such an energy system would be more cost-efficient than the current policy scenario to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The results also indicate that Chile could reach carbon neutrality by 2030 and become a negative greenhouse gas emitter country by 2035. In a 100 % renewable-based energy system, solar photovoltaics (PV) would contribute 86 % of electricity generation, which would represent 83 % of the total final energy demand for the year 2050. This would imply the use of about 10 % of the available techno-economic RE potential of the country. Three vital elements (high level of renewable electrification across all sectors, flexibility and RE-based fuel production) and three key enablers (solar PV, interconnection and full sectoral integration) were identified in order to transition to a fully sustainable energy system. Chile could contribute to the global sustainable energy transition and advance to the global post-fossil fuels economy through the clean extraction of key raw materials and RE-based fuels and chemicals production.
... Most of these studies have performed an hourly balance of supply and demand in their analysis and have identified that there is a significant mismatch between supply and demand as percentages of variable renewables are increased. The vast majority of these studies have been carried out for developed countries and have investigated transitioning the whole energy sector including electricity, heating/cooling, and transport [21][22][23][24][25][26]. Other studies have specifically focused on achieving high percentages of renewable electricity [14,15,[27][28][29]. ...
... Thermal storage systems for concentrated solar power and combined heat and power have been explored as options for meeting variable district heating demand [26]. Biomass hydrogenation to produce fuels for transport [24,25] has also been considered as an alternative process of storing energy for later use. Demand management, where end-users reduce or shift their demand based on supply availability can also assist with the supply-demand mismatch. ...
Pacific island countries are particularly susceptible to sea level rise as a result of climate change and also face high costs and energy security issues from imported fossil fuels. As a result many Pacific island countries are perusing 100% renewable energy targets. Due to challenges with variable renewable energy sources, detailed studies that balance renewable energy supply and demand at a fine temporal scale have been carried out for many countries to inform policy directions. Despite having adopted renewable energy targets, most Pacific island countries have not been subject to the same level of detailed analysis in the academic literature. In addition, the results from other countries are not directly applicable given the particular local resources, climatic conditions and economic situation of Pacific island countries. In this paper, focusing on the case of Samoa, we use an approach based on historical electricity demand and generation time-series data to investigate future scenarios that achieve very high percentages of renewable electricity. The results show that scenarios of high proportions (above 90%) of renewable energy generation coupled with storage (28%–37% of direct solar, 17%–30% of stored solar and 25%–40% of hydro) are economically viable (Net Present Value >0) but, there is a significant trade-off between percentage of renewable supply and affordability. These results have important implications for energy policy directions for Samoa and are directly applicable to many other countries in the Pacific.
... However, studies have also shown that expert views on the role of solar power are highly dependent on which stakeholder group the expert represents (Haukkala, 2018). Bold modelling studies for the Finnish energy system up to 2050 probe a scenario for a solar PV share of up to 10% of final energy consumption, arguing that the intermittency of solar (and other RES) can be addressed by means of daily and seasonal storage solutions (Child, Breyer and Haukkala, 2017;Child and Breyer, 2016), including hydro, heat storage, batteries, EVs, Power-to-Gas and other storage solutions. ...
... Multiple modelling studies of the Finnish energy system up to 2050 (Kiviluoma, Rinne and Helistö, 2018;Ikäheimo et al, 2018;Kiviluoma, 2013;Child and Breyer, 2016;Child, Breyer and Haukkala, 2017;Zakari et al, 2015) lend support to the vision of an energy system that is able to integrate high shares of RES (Holttinen, 2017). These studies focus on the technical capacities and possibilities to identify cost-effective solutions for developing the Finnish energy system. ...
Finland, in line with its Nordic neighbours, has set itself ambitious goals to achieve carbon neutrality. By the late 2010s, the idea of a full-scale energy transition was mainstreamed in Finnish society alongside the expectation of renewable energy being the main production component in the Finnish energy system. In this chapter, we argue that an increased share of renewable energy sources is associated with the trends of electrification, decentralisation and variability. These trends contribute to a move from a production-centric to a consumption-centric energy system and require a focus on how flows of electricity are managed, stored and redistributed and how this affects the interests of the widening field of stakeholders. We focus on stakeholders’ interests as they navigate and respond to the trends associated with a higher share of renewable energy in the system with a special focus on grid development and energy storage. Our analysis highlights that whereas the need for a transition to higher shares of renewable energy is being mainstreamed, the policy development necessary is still in a formative phase and stakeholders struggle to balance and interlink the variety of their interests.
... In contrast to this, studies showed that nuclear-free energy systems are technically and economically desirable for the case of Sweden and Finland [30,31], but also for Japan [32,33], which has been subject to a more intense debate about nuclear power due to the disaster of Fukushima. Further, in [34,35] it could be demonstrated that new nuclear power technologies show unfavourable economic conditions and can be effected by construction delays and cost overruns, as it is currently happening with the Hinkley Point C plant in Somerset, England [36]. ...
The British Isles, consisting of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland, were investigated for a sustainable energy system transition towards 100% renewable energy in 2050. Under given framework conditions, three pathways comprising the entire energy system were investigated in 5‐year time steps and hourly resolution applying an advanced energy system modelling tool and identifying the lowest cost solutions. The British Isles were structured into 10 sub‐national regions. Special attention was paid to the high offshore wind potential of the British Isles, as well as the limited societal acceptance for onshore wind in the United Kingdom. The results indicate that a transition to 100% renewable energy is economically more attractive than the governmental strategy that involves nuclear power and fossil carbon capture and storage. The total annualised system costs can decrease to 63 b€ and a levelised cost of electricity of 40 €/MWh if onshore wind and solar photovoltaics are allowed to be built to a higher extend. High levels of electrification and sector coupling are the main reasons for decreasing primary energy demand. The multiple risks of nuclear technology can be avoided if dedicated action towards 100% renewable energy is taken.
... With the increasing scarcity of non-renewable energy and strict carbon emission requirements, building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPVs) is gradually interesting to people [1][2][3], which can directly convert solar energy into electricity, reduce energy consumption on buildings, and is one of the most attractive ways to use renewable and clean energy [4][5][6][7]. However, traditional silicon (Si) photovoltaic (PV) modules maximize the conversion of solar energy resulting in the monotonous black appearance that limits their wide application [8]. ...
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPVs) shows attractive potential in utilizing solar energy and easing the global greenhouse effect. However, the strong absorption of traditional silicon (Si) photovoltaic (PV) modules makes the high surface temperature and keeps the black appearance. For the current BIPVs, improving the power conversion efficiency (PCE) of Si PV modules with aesthetic requirements remains a great challenge. Herein, we design a novel transparent-colored radiative cooling nanocomposite coating that can be applied to the cover glass of Si PV modules. The functional coating consists of the non-metallic nanoparticle (Si@SiO 2 core-shell nano-particle) for the structural coloration of PV modules and poly (methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) as the matrix. The Si@SiO 2 core-shell nanoparticle with Mie resonance selectively reflects visible light to generate a structural color. The PMMA exhibits high transmittance above the bandgap of the Si solar cell and good emittance in the mid-infrared region. The simulated results show that the colored PV modules with integrated coatings display a wide range of colors in the CIE− 1931 color space and the PCE loss reduction of all the colored PV modules is less than 10%. Meanwhile, the solar transmittance above the Si bandgap T solar > 0.9 and the emittance in the atmospheric window ε IR > 0.95. The equilibrium temperature of Si PV modules with functional coatings is only 2~3 K higher than the ideal minimum. This work provides an alternative and convenient method to design the structural colored PV module with radiative cooling for effectively balancing PV module color and PCE, promoting the development of BIPVs.
... Sweden and Finland, where solar is viewed as a competitive cost system, have also seen increased growth. Sweden now has an estimated 200 MW of solar, mainly north of Stockholm [156]. In the US, four of the top ten states for solar growth are located above 40°N, and more than 7 MW of solar has been installed to date in Alaska at latitudes above 66°N. ...
This report summarizes aspects of soiling from different perspectives including particle types and global distributions (Chapter 1), mechanisms and contributing factors (Chapter 2), sensors and measurement techniques (Chapter 3), modelling approaches and results (Chapter 4), economic impacts (Chapter 5), mitigation strategies (Chapter 6), and special installation and operation considerations for snow shading in high latitudes.
... Photovoltaics (PV) has attracted more and more attention as an environmental-friendly power source to reduce carbon emissions and prevent global warming effectively. According to some previous reports [1,2], energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions will be reduced by 95-100% by 2050 using renewable energy, meaning that carbon emission must be reduced in every energy sector. Zero energy building (ZEB) is necessary for minimizing carbon emissions from residential and commercial buildings. ...
... For example, the cost-optimal share of renewable energy generation for Great Britain in 2050 was evaluated to be at least 50% [14]. It is also technically and economically possible to base energy systems in a particular country [15] or across Europe entirely on renewable energy [16]. The main VRES integration methodologies described in the literature can be classified into two categories: direct integration to improve the representation of VRES into long-term energy system optimisation models like MESSAGE or TIMES (our chosen direction) and the soft-linking [17] of planning and operational models. ...
For future low-carbon energy systems with high shares of renewable energy, temporal representation becomes the dominant factor that impacts the model outputs and analysis conclusions; therefore, relevant and complex modelling approaches are required. We present and apply specific methodology for modelling wind power plants in long-term planning models. It is based on wind power probability curves for each time slice and use of the semi-dynamic method for temporal aspect. Benefits of this approach include the representation of wind power extremes, correct address of balancing capacities and costs, partially retained chronology. We also evaluated the quantitative effect of this methodology on the results of the energy model. In determining the reasonable number of approximation steps for wind power probability curves, we found that a three-step approximation is sufficient to ensure the accuracy of model results.
... Due to the northern location of Finland, the achievable PV production profile is distinct with high insolation in the long summer days, and low in the short winter days [30]. Hence, utilizing excess PV electricity production in the summer to drive heat pumps and storing the generated heat seasonally could be one solution to balance this characteristic. ...
Due to the high energy consumption of buildings, there is a demand for both economically and environmentally effective designs for building energy system retrofits. While multi-objective optimization can be used to solve complicated problems, its use is not yet widespread in the industry. This study first aims to develop an efficient and applicable multi-objective building energy system optimization method, used to dimension energy production and storage retrofit components in a case campus building in Lahti, Finland. Energy consumption data of the building are obtained with a dynamic energy model. The optimization model includes economic and environmental objectives, and the approach is found to function satisfactorily. Second, this study aims to assess the feasibility and issues of multi-objective single-building energy system optimization via the analysis of the case optimization results. The results suggest that economically beneficial local energy production and storage retrofits could not always lead to life cycle CO2-eq emission reductions. The recognized causes are high life cycle emissions from the retrofit components and low Nordic grid energy emissions. The performed sensitivity and feasibility analyses show that correctness and methodological comparability of the used emission factors and future assumptions are crucial for reliable optimization results.
... The literature has claimed advantages regarding decreasing costs related to the heat sector. In studies such as [25] and [62], researchers concluded that interconnections between sectors powered by RE, including the heat sector, have the potential to decrease overall costs of energy systems and providing high amounts of heat [63]. Furthermore, as stated in Section 1, taking advantage of waste heat sources is one of the key ways to increasing efficiency while decreasing costs of energy systems and the possibility of using such source to power CO2 Direct Air Capture (DAC) [64] contributes even more to the 100% RE scenario. ...
The energy transition towards a scenario with 100% renewable energy sources (RES) for the energy system is starting to unfold its effects and is increasingly accepted. In such a scenario, a predominant role will be played by large photovoltaic and wind power plants. At the same time, the electrification of energy consumption is expected to develop further, with the ever-increasing diffusion of electric transport, heat pumps, and power-to-gas technologies. The not completely predictable nature of the RES is their well-known drawback, and it will require the use of energy storage technologies, in particular large-scale power-to-chemical conversion and chemical-to-power re-conversion, in view of the energy transition. Nonetheless, there is a lack in the literature regarding an analysis of the potential role of small–medium CCHP technologies in such a scenario. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to address what could be the role of the Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and/or Combined Cooling Heat and Power (CCHP) technologies fed by waste heat within the mentioned scenario. First, in this paper, a review of small–medium scale CHP technologies is performed, which may be fed by low temperature waste heat sources. Then, a review of the 100% RE scenario studied by researchers from the Lappeenranta University of Technology (through the so-called “LUT model”) is conducted to identify potential low temperature waste heat sources that could feed small–medium CHP technologies. Second, some possible interactions between those mentioned waste heat sources and the reviewed CHP technologies are presented through the crossing data collected from both sides. The results demonstrate that the most suitable waste heat sources for the selected CHP technologies are those related to gas turbines (heat recovery steam generator), steam turbines, and internal combustion engines. A preliminary economic analysis was also performed, which showed that the potential annual savings per unit of installed kW of the considered CHP technologies could reach EUR 255.00 and EUR 207.00 when related to power and heat production, respectively. Finally, the perspectives about the carbon footprint of the CHP/CCHP integration within the 100% renewable energy scenario were discussed.
... Smart energy systems, i.e., systems that integrate multiple energy sectors [6], have been modelled for local, small scale systems such as villages and cities [8][9][10][11][12], as well as for the global scale [13][14][15][16]. The region that received the largest attention is Europe as a whole [17][18][19][20] and some nations such as Denmark [21,22], Ireland [23,24], Scotland, [25] Italy [26], and Finland [27]. Similarly, Germany has been modelled as a 100% RE system in different studies [2,3,28,29]. ...
To be able to fulfil the Paris Climate Agreement and keep global warming with reasonable confidence at a maximum of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, Germany must set an end to all greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. At the core of this task is the switch to 100% renewables across all sectors on the same time horizon. Conventional technologies fueled by fossil and nuclear energies are, according to the vast majority of current cost calculations, energetically inefficient, too expensive, and too slow in expansion to be able to deliver a substantial contribution to rapid climate protection. We present the first comprehensive energy scenario that shows the way to 100% renewable energy for all energy sectors by 2030. The result of the calculations is a cost-effective energy system that is compatible with the German share of necessary greenhouse gas reduction. This study shows a target system of generation, conversion, and storage technologies that can achieve the transformation to 100% renewable energy in all energy sectors—electricity, heat, and mobility—in time and at competitive costs below the costs of the current system. Moreover, we demonstrate the huge cost effect that arises if southern Germany renounces its onshore wind resources and find that this would substantially increase the need for high-voltage direct-current transmission capacity.
... Results indicate that the wind capacity of 450 MW and solar power plant capacities of 300 MW could be installed in the current energy system of Kosovo. Entirely renewable energy system based on a high share of photovoltaic (PV) in Finland was analysed in Ref. [26]. Results show that it is possible to achieve such a system feasibly even in northern latitudes. ...
In order to mitigate the climate change process, the European Union has adopted a European Green Deal, which foresees zero net emissions of greenhouse gases for all member states by 2050. This paper investigates the possibility of achieving a 100% renewable energy system that would meet the requirements set out in this agreement. Montenegro was used as a case study to analyse different energy transition pathways. Two scenarios with different dynamics of integrating renewable energy sources in the energy system were determined for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Scenarios were simulated and analysed in the EnergyPLAN model. Due to the large potential in Montenegro, hydropower plants will have a significant share in the production of electricity, but special attention was given to the integration of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind energy. The analysis shows that it will be possible to achieve a 100% renewable energy system in both scenarios with the implementation of energy efficiency measures, energy storage systems, synergies with the transportation sector, and balancing through demand response.
... The EPLANopt model merges a MOEA with the EnergyPLAN model. As previously explained, even though EnergyPLAN is one of the most commonly used software for energy planning, it has some limits; its main limits consist of a lack of a powerful tool for economic [38] and optimisation analysis [39]. Several studies integrated EnergyPLAN with other software in order to enhance the results accuracy [40], or with optimisation models [41] so as to identify the best technology mix for the future energy system. ...
Energy costs, carbon dioxide emissions, security of supply and system stability are common challenges in small islands all over the world. The European Union identified islands as perfect sites to implement innovative solutions to boost the energy transition towards a sustainable, independent, secure and low carbon energy system. In this framework, energy planning is an indispensable tool to optimally design the future energy system selecting proper renewable energy sources as well as the optimal flexibility strategies such as electric energy storage or sector coupling solutions. Energy system modelling represents one of the most used method for energy planning; indeed, energy models enable to simulate the real energy system functioning as well as its operation costs. Nevertheless, not many researches using multi-objective optimisation have been applied to insular case studies. In this paper, the EPLANopt model is applied to the case study of the Favignana Island in order to investigate the optimal configurations of the island energy system in 2050 with a multi-objective analysis. In order to appropriately analyse the case study of a non-interconnected island, an additional constraint is analysed to preliminary consider the system stability. The model is used to evaluate different energy mix, based on high penetration of renewables, considering several solutions for handling the excess electricity production (namely, electricity energy storage, power to heat and power to transport solutions) and to improve the overall energy efficiency (i.e. solar collectors and heat pumps). Results show that sector coupling solutions would lead to much greater impact in terms of carbon avoidance and economic savings managing the non-dispatchable renewable generation and maintaining the critical excess electricity production within feasible values. Results show that Favignana should indeed bet on photovoltaic and if vehicle-to-grid strategies are largely adopted the need for electricity storages is strongly reduced.
... Several pieces of research investigated 100% or near-100% renewable energy systems from national perspectives. Such investigation includes energy system analysis of Australia [11,12], Barbados [13], Belgium [14], Brazil [15][16][17][18], Canada [17], China [19], Colombia [20], Costa Rica [17], Croatia [21], Denmark [22][23][24][25][26], Finland [26,27], France [28], Germany [29][30][31], Great Britain [32], Iceland [26], India and the SAARC region [33,34], Iran [35], Ireland [36,37], Italy [38], Japan [39], Macedonia [40], New Zealand [41], Nicaragua [42], Nigeria [43], Norway [17,26], Pakistan [44], Paraguay [5,18], Portugal [45], Saudi Arabia [46], Seychelles [47], Tokelau [48], Turkey [49], Ukraine [50], the United Kingdom [51][52][53], the United States [54][55][56], and Uruguay [18]. Other than these national studies, there are many other 100% renewable system studies larger than national energy systems covering the World [55,[57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64], North-East Asia [65], the ASEAN region [66], Europe and its neighbors [67], Europe [68][69][70][71][72], South-East Europe [73], and the Americas [74]. ...
The ambitious energy target to achieve climate-neutrality in the European Union (EU) energy system raises the feasibility question of using only renewables across all energy sectors. As one of the EU’s leading industrialized countries, Germany has adopted several climate-action plans for the realistic implementation and maximum utilization of renewable energies in its energy system. The literature review shows a clear gap in comprehensive techniques describing an open modeling approach for analyzing fully renewable and sector-coupled energy systems. This paper outlines a method for analyzing the 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled energy system’s feasibility in Germany. Based on the open energy modeling framework, an hourly optimization tool ‘OSeEM-DE’ is developed to investigate the German energy system. The model results show that a 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled system for electricity and building heat is feasible in Germany. The investment capacities and component costs depend on the parametric variations of the developed scenarios. The annual investment costs vary between 17.6 and 26.6 bn €/yr for volatile generators and between 23.7 and 28.8 bn €/yr for heat generators. The model suggests an investment of a minimum of 2.7–3.9 bn €/yr for electricity and heat storage. Comparison of OSeEM-DE results with recent studies validates the percentage-wise energy mix composition and the calculated Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) values from the model. Sensitivity analyses indicate that storage and grid expansion maximize the system’s flexibility and decrease the investment cost. The study concludes by showing how the tool can analyze different energy systems in the EU context.
... According to [32], an oversized solar PV plant is more profitable than a plant dimensioned to consume all the produced solar electricity. On the other hand, it has been estimated in the 100% renewable-based energy scenario that Finland requires about 30-35 GWp of solar PV capacity to meet the need [33]. This means, in practice, that there is a need for 5.5-6.4 ...
The current target to decrease the energy consumption of buildings is important as the residential sector consumes a significant part of the energy over the energy chain. Another driver is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Renewable energy sources and technical solutions should play the main role in this pursuit. In this paper, a zero-energy log house in southern Finland is analyzed in detail. The analysis consists of the design, construction, and practical use during the years 2017–2019. The objective of the study is to show that a highly energy efficient log house can be achieved in Nordic conditions without additional insulation by utilizing renewable energy sources and energy technical solutions. The energy efficiency of the house is clearly higher than defined in the national nearly zero-energy building (nZEB) regulations. The house has a plus energy classification and carbon negative emissions for the energy. The operational cost of electricity is on both sides of zero.
New technologies, systems, societal organization and policies for energy saving are urgently needed in the context of accelerated climate change, the Ukraine conflict and the past coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. For instance, concerns about market and policy responses that could lead to new lock-ins, such as investing in liquefied natural gas infrastructure and using all available fossil fuels to compensate for Russian gas supply cuts, may hinder decarbonization efforts. Here we review energy-saving solutions with a focus on the actual energy crisis, green alternatives to fossil fuel heating, energy saving in buildings and transportation, artificial intelligence for sustainable energy, and implications for the environment and society. Green alternatives include biomass boilers and stoves, hybrid heat pumps, geothermal heating, solar thermal systems, solar photovoltaics systems into electric boilers, compressed natural gas and hydrogen. We also detail case studies in Germany which is planning a 100% renewable energy switch by 2050 and developing the storage of compressed air in China, with emphasis on technical and economic aspects. The global energy consumption in 2020 was 30.01% for the industry, 26.18% for transport, and 22.08% for residential sectors. 10–40% of energy consumption can be reduced using renewable energy sources, passive design strategies, smart grid analytics, energy-efficient building systems, and intelligent energy monitoring. Electric vehicles offer the highest cost-per-kilometer reduction of 75% and the lowest energy loss of 33%, yet battery-related issues, cost, and weight are challenging. 5–30% of energy can be saved using automated and networked vehicles. Artificial intelligence shows a huge potential in energy saving by improving weather forecasting and machine maintenance and enabling connectivity across homes, workplaces, and transportation. For instance, 18.97–42.60% of energy consumption can be reduced in buildings through deep neural networking. In the electricity sector, artificial intelligence can automate power generation, distribution, and transmission operations, balance the grid without human intervention, enable lightning-speed trading and arbitrage decisions at scale, and eliminate the need for manual adjustments by end-users.
Climate-related stranded assets have been a popular research topic of many studies over the last decade. Past studies have mostly focused on estimations of stranded assets and mitigation options. While the studies consider energy transitions, the influential factors behind the choice of options have not been investigated in-depth. Because such choices may have path dependency, affecting the direction and speed of subsequent changes, it is critical to understand stranded asset risk and its relations to choices and the transition more comprehensively. To do so, we conduct a systematic literature review to explore the impacts of stranded asset risk on incumbents' decision-making and energy transitions. Our findings demonstrate that stranded asset risk, coupled with transition costs, energy security and sustainability concerns determine the pathway of energy transitions. Higher perceived stranded assets will pave the transition toward a renewable energy-based system, but high concerns about transition costs, energy security, and sustainability would retard the transition or direct the system toward different pathways. Abrupt policy change intensifies regime resistance and energy injustice, but slow change strengthens lock-ins into traditional systems.
The world needs to turn away from fossil fuels and use clean, renewable sources of energy as soon as we can. Failure to do so will cause catastrophic climate damage sooner than you might think, leading to loss of biodiversity and economic and political instability. But all is not lost! We still have time to save the planet without resorting to 'miracle' technologies. We need to wave goodbye to outdated technologies, such as natural gas and carbon capture, and repurpose the technologies that we already have at our disposal. We can use existing technologies to harness, store, and transmit energy from wind, water, and solar sources to ensure reliable electricity, heat supplies, and energy security. Find out what you can do to improve the health, climate, and economic state of our planet. Together, we can solve the climate crisis, eliminate air pollution and safely secure energy supplies for everyone.
The deployment of distributed energy systems must take place paying attention to the self-consumption of renewable generation. Innovative sector coupling strategies can play that role linking local electricity and gas grids. The present work aims to evaluate the energy and economic feasibility of the Power-to-Methane strategy application in urban energy districts. A residential cluster was considered as a case study. Two PV configurations have been applied to evaluate the Substitute Natural Gas (SNG) production under different renewable excess conditions. Thereafter, the Power-to-Methane strategy was implemented by varying the system’s size. Some significant configurations have been compared to each other in terms of energy and economics. Beyond a certain threshold limit, an increase in the photovoltaic size slightly enhances the effectively self-consumed energy. The Power-to-Methane strategy can exploit all the renewable excess once the system is properly sized, almost doubling the potential energy consumption reduction compared to the PV system alone. The SNG production cost is between 100 and 200 EUR/MWh in most configurations, which is competitive with the high natural gas prices on the European market. Therefore, decentralised SNG production can reduce the households’ annual expenditures and it can mitigate the energy poverty conditions over the current energy crisis period.
Concerns related to climate change and global warming caused by anthropogenic activities and in particular fossil energy use have been increasing lately. Air pollution and volatile conventional fuel prices emphasize the need to transition the energy system towards very high shares of renewables. 100% renewable energy systems have been analyzed by many researchers starting from 1975. This bibliometric analysis reviews more than 600 scientific articles in which 100% renewable energy systems were surveyed. This study uses tools of bibliometric analysis, based on publication databases and data mining, together with review elements to understand the current status and trend of 100% renewable energy systems research. The focus of results is on quantitative parameters relating to number and publication types, collaborative links among authors, institutions, and countries. Collaborative networks provide the significant concentration of published papers within organizations and co-authorships globally. The results reveal that the dominant organizations and thus number of published papers are from Europe and the USA; however, almost all the established research organizations in the field of energy system analysis are not active in the field of 100% renewable energy systems analyses. The journals
Energy
and
Applied Energy
have the most articles, and accordingly the most citations. EnergyPLAN and LUT Energy System Transition Model have been the most active tools used to analyze 100% renewable energy systems according to numbers of articles and received citations. The topic of modeling approach indicates the term ’Energy System’ has the highest frequency due to its emergence in the articles. This research provides a holistic overview on the more than four decades of research, and it reveals dynamics within the field with a compound annual growth rate of articles of 26% for the 2010s, the trend of publications, and author growth that comprises now almost 1400 authors with articles in the field.
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) is desired to reduce carbon emissions from residential and commercial buildings. In this application, the controlling the visual impact of BIPV module with preserving PV performance remains a great challenge since the appearance of conventional PV modules is not favorable for building skins in most cases because of their dark colors. In this paper, we report on the color control of crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV modules by introducing the structural colors based on the interference effect. We apply the structural colors to the cover glass of PV minimodules with textured surfaces. The glass texturing is realized by sandblasting technique that allows us to form various textured surfaces depending on sandblasting conditions. High flexibility of structural colors is demonstrated by realizing various colors including violet, cyan, green, and orange using dielectric multilayers deposited on planar and textured glass sheets. These colored glass sheets are applied to c-Si PV minimodules, which exhibit high efficiencies (>18%) with distinct colors. The efficiency of colored PV minimodules depends strongly on their colors, as the efficiency loss originates solely from the optical loss by the colored glasses. In addition, the color difference at various view angles is evaluated by reflectance measurement with an integral sphere and compared in a CIE color system. It clarifies that surface texturing by sandblasting mitigates the angular dependence of structural colors substantially, which is also observable by our eyes. Besides, surface texturing is effective to mitigate the glare effect as well. Therefore, the combination of structural colors and surface texturing is a promising way to realize fascinating colors and a high energy yield simultaneously in BIPV modules.
The EU Commission raised the GHG emissions reduction targets from 40% to at least 55% by 2030, By the “Fit for 55” package. Member States have to review their national energy and climate plans (NECPs) in a short-time. In order to elaborate guidelines for the Italian NECP improvement, a methodology based on the Smart Energy Systems (SES) approach has been proposed. The reference scenario has been modelled in EnergyPLAN. A Sectors’ Implementation Matrix, consisting of eight sectors and three implementation levels, has been developed and the configurations have been simulated by means of MAT4EnergyPLAN. The best scenario accomplishes the 55% emissions reduction targets along with a lowering in the annualised costs of Italian energy system. The RES capacity targets must be increased by further 33 GW for PV and 16.6 GW for WIND. High end-uses electrification degree represents the priority in the next decade, so as to easily and cost-effectively integrate the variable-RES. An integrated energy system and the sector coupling even take priority over the RES installation in order to minimise the energy system decarbonisation costs. Finally, the present work contributes to demonstrate the need for the SES approach in the planning of energy systems with large-scale RES integration.
In recent months, gas prices have reached unprecedented levels, hurting the European economy and exacerbating energy poverty conditions. This paper deals with investigating measures for a rapid reduction in the Italian natural gas (NG) consumption. The aim is to assess and quantify energy, economic, social and environmental impacts of different strategies to be implemented promptly. Several solutions, such as utility and residential PV systems, Wind plants, biomethane, green hydrogen and heat pumps, have been analysed. Different implementation levels of such solutions have been simulated in combination with each other by means of the MATLAB Toolbox for EnergyPLAN. The NG Abatement Cost (NGAC) has been calculated. That indicator allows an immediate evaluation of economic benefits comparing it with current and future NG spot prices and potential import alternatives. The NGAC of the best strategies is between 40 and 70 €/MWh depending on the amount of achieved savings. Less than 80 billion in total investment leads to a NG reduction of 75 TWh/year at an average abatement cost of about 70 €/MWh. That entails an employment impact of 640,000 temporary jobs and 30,000 permanent jobs along with an emission reduction of 21.5 MtCO2/year. Under the highest implementation of such measures, future average NG spot prices higher than 50 €/MWh allow to reduce GHG emissions implying decarbonisation costs lower than 80 €/tCO2. Furthermore, three Carbon Abatement Cost curves by changing the NG prices have been elaborated. The findings of this work show how current high NG prices can be an opportunity to speed up the transition process towards decarbonised energy systems.
Hydroelectric power has unusual technical characteristics that could become more valuable as the penetration of variable generation renewables grows, but its use for electricity generation is constrained by complex physical, safety, and socioenvironmental considerations. Hydroelectricity can therefore be difficult to represent in national‐scale energy models, and is frequently presumed to be either overly flexible or inflexible. While a few grid models address this complexity via detailed hydraulic process models, more simplified optimization and dispatch models could benefit from the use of empirical parameter values. In this study, we combine a new data set comprising 7.8 million flow‐hours of data from 2011 to 2016 at 158 dams across the United States with monthly and hourly generation data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to elucidate such empirical constraints for the continental United States. We introduce an approach for estimating power generation from hourly water discharge, then present regionally resolved interannual seasonal and diurnal generation patterns; frequency analyses of ramp rates; minimum and maximum generation rates; daily reversals; and load duration curves, all available interactively with a new data visualization tool. We suggest that due largely to hydropower's role as power generation that also serves non‐energy purposes, it acts as a predictable variable generator with constrained dispatchability, more like a supply side analog to demand response resources than like a battery. This observation is particularly relevant for high penetration renewable energy scenarios, given hydroelectric generators' expected value for grid stabilization and load balancing.
Energy systems analyses are integrated elements in planning the transition towards renewable energy-based energy systems. This is due to a growing complexity arising from the wider exploitation of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) and an increasing reliance on sector integration as an enabler of temporal energy system integration, but it calls for consideration to the validity of modelling tools. This article synthesises EnergyPLAN applications through an analysis of its use both from a bibliometric and a case-geographical point of view and through a review of the evolution in the issues addressed and the results obtained using EnergyPLAN. This synthesis is provided with a view to addressing the validity and contribution of EnergyPLAN-based research. As of July 1st, 2022, EnergyPLAN has been applied in 315 peer-reviewed articles, and we see the very high application as an inferred internal validation. In addition, the review shows how the complexity of energy systems analyses has increased over time with early studies focusing on the role of wind power and the cogeneration of heat and power and later studies addressing contemporarily novel issues like the sector integration offered by using power-to-x in fully integrated renewable energy systems. Important findings developed through the application of EnergyPLAN includes the value of district heating in energy systems, the value of district heating for integration of VRES and more generally the importance of sector integration for resource-efficient renewable energy-based energy systems. The wide application across systems and development stages is interpreted as inferred validation through distributed stepwise replication.
This paper presents a strategy for achieving a fully decarbonized Danish energy system (including transport and industry) in 2045. The strategy could also be relevant for most countries at a global level. The energy system analysis includes hour-by-hour computer simulations leading to the design of a Smart Energy System with the ability to balance all sectors of the complete energy system. In the analysis, issues such as international shipping and aviation, the sustainable use of biomass, and the exchange of electricity and gas with neighbouring countries are all considered. Moreover, the energy system is coordinated with other sectors to achieve a fully decarbonized society. Finally, the size of the employment impact of investing in decarbonizing the Danish economy is discussed.
This paper compares various flexibility options to support renewable energy integration across the energy transition using energy system modelling. We analyse new flexibility assets such as electricity storage, heat pumps, demand-side response with existing wet appliances, electric boilers for domestic hot water and distribution grid expansion, along with energy efficiency measures in electrical appliances and building retrofitting. We propose an open-source sector coupling model (GRIMSEL-FLEX) to minimise, from a social planner perspective, the total cost of the energy system for electricity and residential heating supply in Switzerland, including various types of consumers and urban settings. We find relevant feedback mechanisms among various flexibility options. Firstly, electric boilers have a larger flexibility potential than demand-side response with wet appliances since they reduce storage investments by more than 26% by 2050 (only 12% for demand-side response). Secondly, 34% more electricity storage is needed if heat pumps replace all fossil-based heating and 80% to replace all heating systems entirely. Thirdly, we find a shift in the operation of heat pumps, electric boilers and wet appliances from night to midday, resulting in larger photovoltaic deployment (22%-66% for the residential sector). Finally, electricity storage capacity induced by heat pump deployment is highly dependent on the retrofitting rate. With 1% per annum, 86% of storage investments can be avoided and it can be counterbalanced with a high retrofitting rate of 2% per annum.
The European Hydrogen Strategy set an electrolysers' capacity target of 40 GW by 2030. This will lead to a sudden expansion of the electrolyser industry across Europe and the unit cost of electrolyser production will steeply decrease. The purpose of the present work is to integrate the learning curve approach with the national energy and economic planning, taking the Italian Hydrogen Strategy as a case study. Different learning curves and different roadmaps for the electrolysers' installation have been combined in order to model scenarios for predicting progressive fall in the electrolysers’ CAPEX. The investment needed to implement the strategy ranges between 1.5 and 3.3 G€ and depends mainly on the learning curve scenario. The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen has been calculated by changing different boundary conditions. Moreover, an incentive scheme has been proposed by comparing the green hydrogen cost to the blue and grey ones. Under the hypothesis of a fully-blended hydrogen use in the gas grid, a potential CO2 reduction up to 8.4 MtonCO2 over the decade can be accomplished. The main barrier to the economic competitiveness of Power to Gas systems is the still too high price of renewable electricity. It will be optimistic to obtain hydrogen prices lower than 2.44 €/kgH2 in Italy by 2030. Nevertheless, the deployment of the Hydrogen Valleys, where both production and consumption coexist, can reduce the carbon avoidance cost. Finally, it has been demonstrated that the failure to achieve the European targets is associated with higher hydrogen production costs and higher decarbonisation costs.
The power sector in China, which is the main CO2 emission contributor in the country, plays an essential role in achieving the 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Notably, there are scientific gaps regarding the decarbonization plan to achieve this goal and the future power supply structure. The objective of this study is to systematically explore and evaluate the feasibility of constructing a carbon-neutral power sector. Considering the power source potential, power supply characteristics, and advanced technologies, methodological steps were developed for the design and assessment of China's power sector. In particular, an evaluation indicator system was included to assess the decarbonization of the power sector and make it comparable in the international context. The results indicated that it is possible for the country's power sector to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, using available domestic energy resources. The total cost of the 100% non-fossil power sector was the lowest, accounting for 87.3% of that of the business-as-usual (BAU) power sector. Compared with the BAU power sector, the renewable power sectors had abatement costs of −0.12–0.43 kCNY/t. The negative abatement cost indicated that power sector decarbonization could be cost-effective in China. In the international context, the cost of electricity of the future China power sector (∼0.42 CNY/kWh) was comparable to that in other regions, while the CO2 abatement cost was lower than that in most regions. The proposed methodological steps can be beneficial for CO2 emissions reduction and energy structure conversion in the power sector of any region.
District heating is of great significance for the Nordic countries due to the high heat demand. The Finnish government has set a national target of carbon neutrality in 2035. This implies a huge challenge and rapid system change. The Helsinki metropolitan area consists of Helsinki, Espoo and Vantaa, and in each city a different district heating company operates, and the technologies planned for decarbonization are different. This research aims to analyze these strategies with respect to carbon dioxide emissions and production costs, assuming different future European Union emissions carbon trading prices. The software EnergyPRO is used to provide least-cost optimal district heating operation solutions. From 2010 to 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the Helsinki metropolitan area district heating will decrease by about 4.2 million tonnes. However, the average heat production costs are expected to increase considerably by almost threefold; while heat trade between the cities will reinforce the feasibility and decreases the system operation costs and total emissions. Helsinki will import heat, especially from Vantaa waste incineration plants. Higher carbon dioxide prices would reduce the total emissions, increase the total district heating operation costs, and lower the heat imported to Helsinki. As all the cities plan biomass as an alternative to fossil fuels, a higher biomass price would limit its consumption but increase natural gas usage the carbon dioxide emissions. In the future, combined heat and power plants will be used significantly less, leading to lost income on electricity sales and profoundly changing the business of the district heating companies.
(In English Below)
Obtener un sistema energético que contribuya a asegurar la estabilidad climática del planeta es uno de los desafíos más importantes de la primera mitad del siglo XXI. Con el propósito de contribuir en la búsqueda de vías que permitan superar la crisis climática global, pero desde acciones locales, y apelando a que la tecnología fotovoltaica (FV) cuenta con excelentes características para habilitar la transición energética que se necesita, esta tesis doctoral tiene como principal objetivo analizar, desde un enfoque global y local, el rol que la energía solar FV descentralizada podría jugar en la transición energética sostenible de un país y territorio específico. Para esto, se emplea como caso de estudio a Chile y particularmente, una de las regiones que lo conforma: la región de Aysén. Tanto Chile como la región de Aysén tienen aspectos que son un reflejo de la crisis global del Antropoceno, pero también cuentan con una gran oportunidad para implementar soluciones ejemplares basadas en sus enormes potenciales de energía renovable (ER). Para realizar dicho análisis se han considerado todos los sectores consumidores de energía y se utilizó una herramienta desarrollada por la Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), con la que se modelaron escenarios de transición energética hacia un sistema 100 % basado en ER para Chile, desde un enfoque global y local, donde, en el enfoque local se incluyó a la región de Aysén.
Los resultados revelan que, tanto en Chile como en la región de Aysén, lograr un sistema energético 100% renovable para el año 2050 es técnicamente factible y económicamente viable. En ese año, dependiendo del enfoque y escala territorial, la contribución a la generación eléctrica por parte de la tecnología FV en su conjunto varía entre 39–86 % y, la contribución de la FV descentralizada varía entre 9–12 %; no obstante, la FV descentralizada aporta entre un 27–52 % de la electricidad final que es mayormente consumida en las ciudades por los sectores eléctrico, térmico y transporte. A su vez, la energía solar FV descentralizada crearía en Chile entre el 9–15 % de los empleos anuales directos durante el periodo de transición. Es decir, entre los años 2020 y 2050, el sector de la FV descentralizada crearía 174.274 empleos directos. Además, los resultados también revelan que Chile puede alcanzar la neutralidad en emisiones de carbono en el año 2030 y, se puede convertir en un país emisor negativo de gases de efecto invernadero a partir del año 2035. Todo esto sería posible utilizando menos del 10 % del potencial tecno-económico de ER disponible en este país.
Tras los resultados del trabajo de investigación realizado en esta tesis doctoral, se concluye que la energía solar FV es un elemento vital en la transición energética sostenible, así como también, alcanzar un sistema energético totalmente desfosilizado es más importante que lograr la neutralidad en las emisiones de carbono. Esto último se debe a que una transición a nivel país hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable implicaría beneficios socio-ambientales y socioeconómicos locales, con impactos globales positivos que se necesitan con urgencia. Si Chile implementara una vía de transición hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable, no solo podría convertirse en un caso ejemplar en el avance hacia una economía post-combustibles fósiles, si no que también podría contribuir a la transición energética global: a través de la extracción limpia de materias primas clave (como lo son el cobre y el litio), y a través de la producción de combustibles y químicos basados en ER. En resumen, la tecnología FV puede contribuir en la mitigación del cambio climático y la reducción de los niveles de contaminación del aire en las ciudades, al tiempo que impulsa el crecimiento económico local; todo esto, de una manera más descentralizada y participativa.
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Obtaining an energy system that will help to ensure the climactic stability of the planet is one of the most important challenges of the first half of the 21st century. In order to contribute to the search for ways to overcome the global climate crisis, from local activities, and appealing to the fact that photovoltaic (PV) technology has excellent characteristics which could enable the energy transition that is needed, this doctoral thesis has as its main objective the analysis, from a global and local approach, the role that decentralized solar PV could play in the sustainable energy transition of a specific country and territory. For this purpose, Chile and one of its regions (the Aysén region) are used as a case study. Both Chile and the Aysén region have aspects that reflect the global crisis of the Anthropocene, but they also present a great opportunity to implement exemplary solutions, based on their enormous renewable energy (RE) potentials. To carry out this analysis, all energy-consuming sectors were considered. A tool developed by the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) was used, with which energy transition scenarios were modelled towards a 100% RE-based system for Chile, from a global and local approach. The Aysén region was included in the local approach.
The results reveal that, both in Chile and in the Aysén region, achieving a 100% RE system by 2050 is technically feasible and economically viable. In that year, depending on the approach and territorial scale, the contribution to electricity generation by PV technology as a whole would vary between 39–86%. The contribution of decentralized PV would be between 9–12%. However, decentralized PV would contribute 27–52% of the final electricity that is mostly consumed in cities by the power, heat and transport sectors. In turn, decentralized solar PV would create between 9–15% of annual direct jobs in Chile during the transition period. In other words, between 2020 and 2050, the decentralized PV sector would create 174,274 direct jobs. In addition, the results also reveal that Chile could achieve carbon neutrality in 2030 and could become a negative greenhouse gas emitter by 2035. All of this would be possible by using less than 10% of the techno-economic potential of RE available in this country.
From the results of the research work carried out in this doctoral thesis, it is concluded that solar PV is a vital element in the sustainable energy transition. We also find that achieving a fully defossilized energy system is more important than achieving carbon neutrality. The latter is due to the fact that a transition at the country level towards a 100% RE system would imply local socio-environmental and socio-economic benefits, with positive urgently needed global impacts. If Chile implements a transition path towards a 100% RE system, it could not only become an exemplary case in moving towards a post-fossil fuel economy, but could also contribute to the global energy transition through the clean extraction of key raw materials (such as copper and lithium), and through the production of RE-based fuels and chemicals. In summary, PV technology can contribute to mitigating climate change and reducing air pollution levels in cities, while boosting local economic growth, doing all of this in a more decentralized and participatory way.
Deep decarbonisation – i.e. the transition towards net-zero emissions energy systems – will be enabled by a high penetration of intermittent renewables, storage and sector-coupling technologies. In this paper, we present a novel modelling approach to capture the increasing complexity of such future energy systems and help policy makers choose among the different possible transition scenarios. Salient features of our model, consisting of an extended and regionalised version of EnergyScope (Limpens et al., 2019 [1]), are a low computational time and a concise formulation which make it suitable for uncertainty and what-if analyses. As a case study, the model is applied to devise scenarios for the Italian energy transition. Specifically, we develop the first open-source whole-energy system model of Italy and assess the feasibility of its decarbonisation strategy with respect to uncertainties in the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewable technologies. Results show that emissions can be cut by 79%–97% vs. 1990 levels thanks to a radical electrification of the energy system coupled to a wide deployment of renewables and efficient energy conversion technologies. Finally, we discuss the synergies, advantages and disadvantages of our proposed approach with respect to alternative modelling approaches used across 88 recent deep decarbonisation studies. The analysis suggests that our model, thanks to its computational efficiency and a snapshot approach (i.e., modelling a target-year in the future), can complement more detailed and established energy models optimising the energy transition pathway (i.e., modelling the pathway from today to the target year).
Domestic hot water (DHW) heating is one of the most energy-consuming activities in a typical household. Photovoltaics (PV) connected with a ground source heat pump (GSHP) offers a low-emission method for DHW heating. This paper studies four different control methods for DHW heating in a building with a GSHP and a PV system. The main control method aims to minimize DHW heating costs by utilizing Nord Pool Spot market information together with a PV production output forecast. The results of this control method, implemented with a perfect PV output forecast and assessed over three years of hourly data, indicate that annual cost savings over other methods are achievable. Results with the real-world actual PV output forecast, evaluated between June–September 2020, demonstrate DHW heating cost savings up to 36–53%, even though forecasting errors are present. The heating costs are 9–11% higher compared against the perfect forecast case. The suggested control method thereby effectively reduces the costs when compared with all other methods, and its performance is not significantly affected even when an actual imperfect forecast is implemented. The results also indicate that minimizing energy consumption does not offer the lowest cost.
Distributed energy systems are becoming increasingly popular worldwide. The 100% renewable energy system can be an important energy supply alternative to reduce the carbon emissions and address energy shortage, especially for remote areas. However, the performance of 100% renewable energy system (RES) at community level needs further detailed analysis, which is affected by the climates, availability of renewable energy and local energy markets. This paper proposes a design optimization framework of 100% renewable energy systems for low-density communities and investigates the system performance. To investigate the integration and performance of 100% RES, thirty typical cities located in different regions of China were chosen considering different climates, geographical features, and renewable energy distributions. By taking the economic performance as the optimization objective, the optimal design for the 100% RES is obtained, and the energy and economic performance is analyzed. Results show that, under the current energy market conditions, the 100% RES is feasible for low-density communities in most regions of China. The payback periods of the systems in most cities are less than six years. When the cost of PV is reduced by half considering future technological developments, the payback period of a 100% RES can be reduced by 30%–60%. This paper would provide design suggestions and application recommendations in regard to promoting 100% RES in China.
The ambitious energy target to achieve climate-neutrality in the European Union (EU) energy system raises the question of the feasibility of using only renewables across all energy sectors. Germany, as one of the leading industrialized countries of the EU, has adopted several climate action plans for the realistic implementation and maximum utilization of renewable energies in its future energy system. The literature review shows a clear gap in comprehensive techniques describing an open modeling approach for analyzing fully renewable and sector-coupled energy systems. This paper outlines an open modeling technique for analyzing the feasibility of the 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled energy system in Germany. It identifies the capacities and investment costs for different components and briefly evaluates the flexibility aspects of the system in terms of transmission grid expansion, energy storage, and dispatchable loads. Based on the open energy modeling framework (Oemof), an hourly optimization tool 'OSeEM-DE' is developed to investigate the German energy system. The model results show that a 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled system for electricity and building heat is feasible in Germany under different conditions. The investment capacities and component costs depend on the parametric variations of the developed scenarios. According to the model results, the annual investment costs vary between 17.6 – 26.6 bn €/yr for the volatile generators, and between 23.7 – 28.8 bn €/yr for the heat generators. Besides, the model suggests an investment of a minimum of 2.7 – 3.9 bn €/yr for electricity and heat storage. A comparison of the OSeEM-DE results with Fraunhofer ISE study reports shows that the percentage-wise energy mix composition and the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) from the model are within the plausible ranges. Finally, sensitivity analyses indicate that storage expansion and optimum grid extension between Northern and Southern Germany can maximize the provision of flexibility to the system and decrease the overall investment cost.
A 100% renewable energy scenario was developed for Finland in 2050 using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool to find a suitable, least-cost configuration. Hourly data analysis determined the roles of various energy storage solutions. Electricity and heat from storage represented 15% of end-user demand. Thermal storage discharge was 4% of end-user heat demand. In the power sector, 21% of demand was satisfied by electricity storage discharge, with the majority (87%) coming from vehicle-to-grid (V2G) connections. Grid gas storage discharge represented 26% of gas demand. This suggests that storage solutions will be an important part of a 100% renewable Finnish energy system.
Initiatives of developing roadmaps for moving to a low carbon economy by 2050 have been taken by many European authorities, including the European Commission. Using the ETSAP TIMES modeling framework as the central tool, we analyse the implications of low carbon policies within Europe, with a special focus on the Finnish energy system. The main objective of the work in the Low Carbon Finland 2050 -platform project was to identify cost-effective and robust pathways for moving into a low carbon economy by 2050, by creating a set of different scenarios for the future society and economy. The report outlines the work carried out with the VTT TIMES model, which is a global partial equilibrium techno-economic energy systems model. On the global level, the analysis considers also the energy system impacts on the depletion of known mineral resources for critical high-tech metals, many of which are closely associated with the key energy technologies of the future.
The work builds on the prior work of Koljonen and Similä (2013), but presents a further elaboration of the different storylines and pathways to a low carbon economy. In the different pathways not only the technology portfolios are changed but also the structure of the whole economy, including substantial changes in the Finnish energy intensive industries, community structures, and even consumer behaviour. The sensitivities to uncertainties in the energy system’s development with respect to key technologies and energy sources are also assessed with the help of the TIMES model. Such key sensitivity parameters include agreements on global climate policies, the viability and potential role of carbon capture and storage, sustainability of biomass resources, and the future of nuclear power in Europe. Taking into account these uncertainties, the low carbon pathways are characterised with respect to their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
Achieving the targets for a low carbon economy is technically feasible under many different technology pathways. However, the results clearly indicate that the transition can occur most smoothly and with lowest impacts on the economies when a reasonably high diversity in the energy supply system is maintained. That would imply also the need for employing CCS, both within the energy sector and energy intensive process industries. Bioenergy remains the most important renewable energy source in all scenarios. The analysis indicates that a very high reliance on non-biomass renewables would require rapid technological development with a break-through in energy storage technology, and would entail considerable uncertainties with respect to both economy and technology.
We summarize the results of a recent statistical analysis of 216 nuclear energy accidents and incidents (events). The dataset is twice as large as the previous best available. We employ cost in US dollars as a severity measure to facilitate the comparison of different types and sizes of events, a method more complete and consistent that the industry-standard approach. Despite significant reforms following past disasters, we estimate that, with 388 reactors in operation, there is a 50% chance that a Fukushima event (or more costly) occurs every 60–150 years. We also find that the average cost of events per year is around the cost of the construction of a new plant. This dire outlook necessitates post-Fukushima reforms that will truly minimize extreme nuclear power risks. Nuclear power accidents are decreasing in frequency, but increasing in severity.
This paper outlines how an existing energy system can be transformed into a 100% renewable energy system. The transition is divided into a number of key stages which reflect key radical technological changes on the supply side of the energy system. Ireland is used as a case study,but in reality this reflects many typical energy systems today which use power plants for electricity, individual boilers for heat, and oil for transport. The seven stages analysed are 1) reference, 2) introduction of district heating, 3) installation of small and large-scale heat pumps,4) reducing grid regulation requirements, 5) adding flexible electricity demands and electric vehicles, 6) producing synthetic methanol/DME for transport, and finally 7) using synthetic gas to replace the remaining fossil fuels. For each stage, the technical and economic performance of the energy system is calculated. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system can provide the same end-user energy demands as today’s energy system and at the same price. Electricity will be the backbone of the energy system, but the flexibility in today’s electricity sector will be transferred from the supply side of the demand side in the future. Similarly, due to changes in the type of spending required in a 100% renewable energy system, this scenario will result in the creation of 100,000 additional jobs in Ireland compared to an energy system like today’s. These results are significant since they indicate that the transition to a 100% renewable energy system can begin today, without increasing the cost of energy in the short- or long-term, if the costs currently forecasted for 2050 become a reality.
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying material- and energyflows
and their associated impacts in the life cycles of products (i.e., goods and services). One of the
major goals of IEA PVPS Task 12 is to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, transparency
and quality of LCA to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results. The current report presents the
latest consensus LCA results among the authors, PV LCA experts in North America, Europe and Asia. At
this time consensus is limited to five technologies for which there are well-established and up-to-date LCI
data: mono- and multi-crystalline Si, CdTe CIGS, and high concentration PV (HCPV) using III/V cells. The
LCA indicators shown herein include Energy Payback Times (EPBT), Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG),
criteria pollutant emissions, and heavy metal emissions.
Life Cycle Inventories (LCIs) are necessary for LCA and the availability of such data is often the greatest
barrier for conducting LCA. The Task 12 LCA experts have put great efforts in gathering and compiling the
LCI data presented in this report. These include detailed inputs and outputs during manufacturing of cell,
wafer, module, and balance-of-system (i.e., structural- and electrical- components) that were estimated
from actual production and operation facilities. In addition to the LCI data that support the LCA results
presented herein, data are presented to enable analyses of various types of PV installations; these
include operational data of rooftop and ground-mount PV systems and country-specific PV-mixes. The LCI
datasets presented in this report are the latest that are available to the public describing the status in
2011 for crystalline Si, 2010-2011 for CdTe, 2010 for CIGS, and 2010 for HCPV technology.
This report provides an update of the life cycle inventory data in Section 5 of the previous report:
V. Fthenakis, H. C. Kim, R. Frischknecht, M. Raugei, P. Sinha, M. Stucki , 2011, Life Cycle Inventories and
Life Cycle Assessment of Photovoltaic Systems, International Energy Agency(IEA) PVPS Task 12, Report
T12-02:2011.
Updates are provided for the crystalline silicon PV global supply chain (Section 5.1), thin film PV module
manufacturing (Sections 5.2-5.3), PV mounting structures (Section 5.5), and country-specific electricity
grid mixes (Section 5.9). Other sections of this report are the same as in the previous report. Electronic
versions of the updated tables in Section 5 are available at IEA PVPS (http://www.iea-pvps.org; select
Task 12 under Archive) and treeze Ltd (http://treeze.ch; under Publications).
Background There is much uncertainty about the risks of leukaemia and lymphoma after repeated or protracted low-dose radiation exposure typical of occupational, environmental, and diagnostic medical settings. We quantified associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposures and leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma mortality among radiation-monitored adults employed in France, the UK, and the USA.
Methods We assembled a cohort of 308 297 radiation-monitored workers employed for at least 1 year by
the Atomic Energy Commission, AREVA Nuclear Cycle, or the National Electricity Company in France,
the Departments of Energy and Defence in the USA, and nuclear industry employers included in the
National Registry for Radiation Workers in the UK. The cohort was followed up for a total of 8·22 million person-years. We ascertained deaths caused by leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. We used Poisson regression to quantify associations between estimated red bone marrow absorbed dose and leukaemia and lymphoma mortality.
Findings Doses were accrued at very low rates (mean 1·1 mGy per year, SD 2·6). The excess relative risk of leukaemia mortality (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia) was 2·96 per Gy (90% CI 1·17–5·21; lagged 2 years), most notably because of an association between radiation dose and mortality from chronic myeloid leukaemia (excess relative risk per Gy 10·45, 90% CI 4·48–19·65).
Interpretation This study provides strong evidence of positive associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposure and leukaemia.
We provide, and perform a risk theoretic statistical analysis of, a dataset
that is 75 percent larger than the previous best dataset on nuclear incidents
and accidents, comparing three measures of severity: INES (International
Nuclear Event Scale), radiation released, and damage dollar losses. The annual
rate of nuclear accidents, with size above 20 Million US$, per plant, decreased
from the 1950s until dropping significantly after Chernobyl (April, 1986). The
rate is now roughly stable at 0.002 to 0.003, i.e., around 1 event per year
across the current fleet. The distribution of damage values changed after Three
Mile Island (TMI; March, 1979), where moderate damages were suppressed but the
tail became very heavy, being described by a Pareto distribution with tail
index 0.55. Further, there is a runaway disaster regime, associated with the
"dragon-king" phenomenon, amplifying the risk of extreme damage. In fact, the
damage of the largest event (Fukushima; March, 2011) is equal to 60 percent of
the total damage of all 174 accidents in our database since 1946. In dollar
losses we compute a 50% chance that (i) a Fukushima event (or larger) occurs in
the next 50 years, (ii) a Chernobyl event (or larger) occurs in the next 27
years and (iii) a TMI event (or larger) occurs in the next 10 years. Finally,
we find that the INES scale is inconsistent. To be consistent with damage, the
Fukushima disaster would need to have an INES level of 11, rather than the
maximum of 7.
To properly evaluate the prospects for commercially competitive battery electric vehicles (BEV) one must have accurate information on current and predicted cost of battery packs. The literature reveals that costs are coming down, but with large uncertainties on past, current and future costs of the dominating Li-ion technology. This paper presents an original systematic review, analysing over 80 different estimates reported 2007-2014 to systematically trace the costs of Li-ion battery packs for BEV manufacturers. We show that industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US$1,000 per kWh to around US$410 per kWh, and that the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh, and has declined by 8% annually. Learning rate, the cost reduction following a cumulative doubling of production, is found to be between 6 and 9%, in line with earlier studies on vehicle battery technology. We reveal that the costs of Li-ion battery packs continue to decline and that the costs among market leaders are much lower than previously reported. This has significant implications for the assumptions used when modelling future energy and transport systems and permits an optimistic outlook for BEVs contributing to low-carbon transport.
Towards low-carbon energy systems, there are countries with ongoing plans for expanding their nuclear power capacity, and simultaneously advancing the role of variable renewable energy sources (RES), namely wind and solar energy. This crossroads of capital-intensive, baseload power production and uncontrollable, intermittent RES may entail new challenges in the optimal and economic operation of power systems. This study examines this case by hourly analysis of a national-level energy system with the EnergyPLAN modeling tool, coupled with wind integration simulations (including uncertainty) implemented using MATLAB. We evaluate the maximum feasible wind integration under different scenarios for nuclear power plants, energy demand, and the flexibility of energy infrastructure for a real case study (Finland). We propose wind-nuclear compromise charts to envision the impact of any mix of these two technologies on four parameters: total costs, power exchange, carbon emissions, and renewable energy integration. The results suggest that nuclear power constrains the room for maximum uptake of wind energy by a descending parabolic relationship. If nuclear power production exceeds 50% of the total power demand, wind will be unlikely to penetrate in shares over 15% of the respective demand. Moreover, we investigate the role of four flexibility options: demand side management, electrical energy storage, smart electric heating, and large-scale heat pumps (backed with thermal energy storage). Heat pumps (which are in connection with combined heat and power (CHP) and district heating systems) offer the highest efficiency in balancing excess power from variable RES. However, power-to-heat options offer a limited capability for absorbing excess power, as oversupply arises mainly in the periods with relatively low demand for heat. This calls for longer-term energy storage and/or other flexibility options to achieve the planned targets in wind-nuclear scenarios.
A primary endeavor of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to synthesize and analyze data that is useful to the renewable energy industry on a global scale [1]. One goal of POWER is to provide data to the renewable energy industry in quantities and terms compatible with this industries design and engineering tools and for locations where ground site data is not readily available. The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set and web site have been a valuable resource for a growing user community involved in renewable energy. The POWER project continues to improve upon information available via the SSE web site. This paper describes the availability of higher spatial resolution assimilated data in a new release of SSE (i.e. SSE 6.0) that extends the period of coverage to 22 years.
Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) is a thermochemical process used in the production of charred matter similar in composition to coal. It involves the use of wet, carbohydrate feedstock, a relatively low temperature environment (180 °C-350 °C) and high autogenous pressure (up to 2.4 MPa) in a closed system. Various applications of the solid char product exist, opening the way for a range of biomass feedstock materials to be exploited that have so far proven to be troublesome due to high water content or other factors. Sludge materials are investigated as candidates for industrial-scale HTC treatment in fuel production. In general, HTC treatment of pulp and paper industry sludge (PPS) and anaerobically digested municipal sewage sludge (ADS) using existing technology is competitive with traditional treatment options, which range in price from EUR 30-80 per ton of wet sludge. PPS and ADS can be treated by HTC for less than EUR 13 and 33, respectively. Opportunities and challenges related to HTC exist, as this relatively new technology moves from laboratory and pilot-scale production to an industrial scale. Feedstock materials, end-products, process conditions and local markets ultimately determine the feasibility of a given HTC operation. However, there is potential for sludge materials to be converted to sustainable bio-coal fuel in a Finnish context.
There are several barriers to achieving an energy system based entirely on renewable energy (RE) in Finland, not the least of which is doubt that high capacities of solar photovoltaics (PV) can be feasible due to long, cold and dark Finnish winters. Technologically, several energy storage options can facilitate high penetrations of solar PV and other variable forms of RE. These options include electric and thermal storage systems in addition to a robust role of Power-toGas technology. In an EnergyPLAN simulation of the Finnish energy system for 2050, approximately 45% of electricity produced from solar PV was used directly over the course of the year, which shows the relevance of storage. In terms of public policy, several mechanisms are available to promote various forms of RE. However, many of these are contested in Finland by actors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo rather than by those without confidence in RE conversion or storage technologies. These vested interests must be overcome before a zero fossil carbon future can begin. The results of this study provides insights into how higher capacities of solar PV can be effectively promoted and managed at high latitudes, both north and south.
As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
The energy demand of photovoltaic (PV) systems is an important part of energy sustainability of PV systems. PV systems are considered sustainable energy systems when the produced energy is higher than the energy needed for the PV system on a life-cycle basis. This paper employs financial learning curve concepts to determine the energy demand of major PV module technologies and systems. General PV module and PV system energy learning curves are calculated by weighting energy demand of different PV systems according to their share in PV market. Additionally, the contribution of module efficiency for reducing specific energy demand is considered. We find an energy learning rate of 17% for PV modules and 14% for PV systems on the basis of a market weighted mix of technologies and volumes. Energy payback time (EPBT) and energy return on energy investment (EROI) in 2010 and for the year 2020 are calculated via the energy learning rate and indicates a further significant progress in energetic productivity of PV systems. To the knowledge of the authors this publication shows for the first time that the energy consumption in PV manufacturing follows the log-linear learning curve law similar to the evolution of production cost. This allows calculating EPBT or EROI for future prognoses. Furthermore, it shows significant evidence of how sustainable PV systems are and justifies their growing share in the energy market.
Integrating high shares of renewable energy (RE) sources in future energy systems requires a variety of storage solutions and flexibility measures. In this work, a 100% RE scenario was developed for Finland in 2050 for all energy sectors using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool to find a least-cost system configuration that suited the national context. Hourly data was analysed to determine the roles of various energy storage solutions, including stationary batteries, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) connections, thermal energy storage and grid gas storage for Power-toGas (PtG) technologies. V2G storage and stationary batteries facilitated use of high shares of variable RE on a daily and weekly basis. Thermal energy storage and synthetic grid gas storage aided in resolving seasonality issues related to variable RE generation plus facilitated efficient use of other forms of RE, such as biomass, and Combined Heat and Power to maintain the reliability and independence of the energy system throughout the year. In this scenario, 30 GWp of installed solar PV, 35 GWe of onshore wind power and 5 GWe of offshore wind power are supported by 20 GWh of stationary Lithium-ion batteries, 150 GWh of V2G storage (Li-ion), 20 GWhth of thermal energy storage, and 3800 GWhth of grid gas storage. Discharge of electricity and heat from storage represented 15% of end-user demand. Thermal storage discharge was 4% of end-user heat demand. In the power sector, 21% of end-user demand was satisfied by electricity storage discharge, the majority of this (87%) coming from V2G connections. Grid gas storage discharge represented 26% of gas demand. These observations suggest that storage solutions will be an important part of a 100% renewable Finnish energy system.
This paper investigates the causality among economic growth, renewable energy consumption, capital and labor for new EU member countries for the period of 1990–2009, by using asymmetric causality test approach and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical results support that renewable energy consumption has positive impacts on economic growth for all investigated countries. But only for Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland, and Slovenia there is statistically significant impact on economic growth has found. And also supports neutrality hypothesis for Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia while the conservation hypothesis is present for Czech Republic. The fact that there is a causal relationship from economic growth to renewable energy consumption and the growth hypothesis is supported for Bulgaria, referring to causality from energy consumption to economic growth.
A district energy system, especially one employing a large heat storage facility, may be able to tap energy sources that would not otherwise be suitable owing to irregular occurrence or difficulty in transporting the energy to demand centres. To be viable as thermal energy for buildings, sources such as geothermal, solar, and nuclear energy (which is likely to be available in off-peak electrical demand periods) all require at least one of the following: an extensive network for distribution of the energy, large-scale demand applications, or large off-peak storage capacity. These requirements have hindered the use of these sources in individual buildings, but they are compatible with a district energy system. -from Author.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption, CO2 emissions, renewable energy and real GDP per capita using dynamic panel for nine developed countries over the period 1990–2013. Capital and labor are included as additional variables. Results shown that there is a unidirectional causality running from renewable energy consumption to real GDP per capita for the whole panel at short run; this implies that policies for reducing energy consumption may not retard economic growth and income. However, there is no links between nuclear energy consumption and real GDP per capita, but a unidirectional causality from nuclear energy consumption to labor. Moreover, a bidirectional causality between labor and capital, and between CO2 emissions and capital are found. In addition, there is a unidirectional causal relationship from labor to CO2 emissions, while among other variables no causal relationship is found.
In the long run, there exists also a bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and real GDP per capita, which complain that renewable energy is a crucial component for economic growth. In addition, results revealed a unidirectional causality from GDP to CO2 emissions.
Presentation at the LUT Doctorial School Conference in Lappeenranta at December 10, 2015.
Photovoltaics (PV) is expected to become one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation during the next decades. The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of PV has already reached grid parity with retail electricity in many markets and is approaching wholesale parity in some countries. In this paper, it is estimated that the PV LCOE in main European markets is going to decrease from 2015 to 2030 by about 45% and to 2050 by about 60%. The LCOE for utility-scale PV in Europe will be about 25-45 €/MWh in 2030 and about 15-30 €/MWh in 2050 depending on the location. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the most important parameter together with the annual irradiation in the calculation of the PV LCOE. The uncertainty in capital and operational expenditure (CAPEX and OPEX) is relatively less important while the system lifetime and degradation have only a minor effect. The work for this paper has been carried out under the framework of the EU PV Technology Platform.
There are several barriers to achieving an energy system based entirely on renewable energy (RE), not the least of which is doubt that high capacities of solar PV can be feasible due to long, cold and dark Finnish winters. Technologically, several energy storage options can facilitate high penetrations of solar PV (up to 29 TWhe, or 16% of annual electricity production) and other variable forms of RE. These options include electric and thermal storage systems in addition to a robust role of Power-toGas (PtG) technology. Approximately 45% of electricity produced from solar PV was used directly over the course of the year, which shows the relevance of storage. In terms of public policy, several mechanisms are available to promote various forms of RE. However, many of these are contested in Finland by actors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo rather than by those without faith in RE conversion or storage technologies. These vested interests must be overcome before a zero fossil carbon future can begin.
In this paper we examine the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth across the G7 countries, using annual data for the period of 1990-2011. By employing the causality methodology proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) [8], we investigate if there is a causal relationship between the variables. The advantage of this methodology is that it takes into account possible slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency in a multivariate panel. The empirical results support the existence of a bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and renewable energy for the overall panel. However, looking at the individual results for each country, the neutrality hypothesis is confirmed for Canada, Italy and the US; while for France and UK there is a unidirectional causality from GDP to renewable energy, and the opposite for Germany and Japan.
A clear consensus exists in German society that renewable energy resources have to play a dominant role in the future German energy supply system. However, many questions are still under discussion; for instance the relevance of the different technologies such as photovoltaic systems and wind energy converters installed offshore in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Concerns also exist about the cost of a future energy system mainly based on renewable energy. In the work presented here we tried to answer some of those questions. Guiding questions for this study were: (1) is it possible to meet the German energy demand with 100% renewable energy, considering the available technical potential of the main renewable energy resources? (2) what is the overall annual cost of such an energy system once it has been implemented? (3) what is the best combination of renewable energy converters, storage units, energy converters and energy-saving measures? In order to answer these questions, we carried out many simulation calculations using REMod-D, a model we developed for this purpose. This model is described in Part I of this publication. To date this model covers only part of the energy system, namely the electricity and heat sectors, which correspond to about 62% of Germany's current energy demand. The main findings of our work indicate that it is possible to meet the total electricity and heat demand (space heating, hot water) of the entire building sector with 100% renewable energy within the given technical limits. This is based on the assumption that the heat demand of the building sector is significantly reduced by at least 60% or more compared to today's demand. Another major result of our analysis shows that - once the transformation of the energy system has been completed - supplying electricity and heat only from renewables is no more expensive than the existing energy supply.
Power-to-gas (PtG) technology has received considerable attention in recent years. However, it has been rather difficult to find profitable business models and niche markets so far. PtG systems can be applied in a broad variety of input and output conditions, mainly determined by prices for electricity, hydrogen, oxygen, heat, natural gas, bio-methane, fossil CO2 emissions, bio-CO2 and grid services, but also full load hours and industrial scaling. Optimized business models are based on an integrated value chain approach for a most beneficial combination of input and output parameters. The financial success is evaluated by a standard annualized profit and loss calculation and a subsequent return on equity consideration. Two cases of PtG integration into an existing pulp mill as well as a nearby bio-diesel plant are taken into account. Commercially available PtG technology is found to be profitable in case of a flexible operation mode offering electricity grid services. Next generation technology, available at the end of the 2010s, in combination with renewables certificates for the transportation sector could generate a return on equity of up to 100% for optimized conditions in an integrated value chain approach. This outstanding high profitability clearly indicates the
potential for major PtG markets to be developed rather in the transportation sector and chemical industry than in the electricity sector as seasonal storage option as often proposed.
Further development of the North-East Asian energy system is at a crossroads due to severe limitations of the current conventional energy based system. For North-East Asia it is proposed that the excellent solar and wind resources of the Gobi desert could enable the transformation towards a 100% renewable energy system. An hourly resolved model describes an energy system for North-East Asia, subdivided into 14 regions interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grids. Simulations are made for highly centralized, decentralized and countrywide grids scenarios. The results for total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are 0.065 and 0.081 €/(kW&h) for the centralized and decentralized approaches for 2030 assumptions. The presented results for 100% renewable resources-based energy systems are lower in LCOE by about 30–40% than recent findings in Europe for conventional alternatives. This research clearly indicates that a 100% renewable resources based energy system is THE real policy option.
The paper reviews different approaches, technologies, and strategies to manage large-scale schemes of variable renewable electricity such as solar and wind power. We consider both supply and demand side measures. In addition to presenting energy system flexibility measures, their importance to renewable electricity is discussed. The flexibility measures available range from traditional ones such as grid extension or pumped hydro storage to more advanced strategies such as demand side management and demand side linked approaches, e.g. the use of electric vehicles for storing excess electricity, but also providing grid support services. Advanced batteries may offer new solutions in the future, though the high costs associated with batteries may restrict their use to smaller scale applications. Different “P2Y”-type of strategies, where P stands for surplus renewable power and Y for the energy form or energy service to which this excess in converted to, e.g. thermal energy, hydrogen, gas or mobility are receiving much attention as potential flexibility solutions, making use of the energy system as a whole. To “functionalize” or to assess the value of the various energy system flexibility measures, these need often be put into an electricity/energy market or utility service context. Summarizing, the outlook for managing large amounts of RE power in terms of options available seems to be promising.
Mit der vorliegenden Studie wird die (fiktive) Pr¨ amie einer Haftpflichtversicherung f¨ ur den Schaden- fall, der aus einem nuklearen Katastrophenfall auf der Grundlage eines Kernkraftwerk-St¨ or- oder Unfalls resultiert, ermittelt. Grundlage stellen bereits ver¨ offentlichte Studien zur Eintrittswahr- scheinlichkeit und zur m¨ oglichen Schadenh¨ ohe dar. Die Autoren beziehen dar¨ uber hinaus eigene getroffene Annahmen und daraus resultierende Bewertungen hinsichtlich dieser beiden Faktoren zur Bestimmung eines Risikos in die Berechnungen ein.