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Vision and initial feasibility analysis of a recarbonised Finnish energy system for 2050

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... Several studies have proposed the large-scale integration of renewable energy systems for Finland 12 and in a broader context also for the whole of Europe. 13,14 In these studies, electricity storage has been included as part of the solution at least in some of the presented scenarios. ...
... The selected studies mostly feature an hourly resolution and a single operation year. [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] The selected studies feature different electricity storage technologies. While nearly all the selected studies feature batteries, hydrogen or power-to-gas options were additionally considered in several studies 12,16,18,21,23 as were compressed air storages. ...
... [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] The selected studies feature different electricity storage technologies. While nearly all the selected studies feature batteries, hydrogen or power-to-gas options were additionally considered in several studies 12,16,18,21,23 as were compressed air storages. 14,21 Some studies only considered short-term storages. ...
Article
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The Government of Finland is targeting carbon neutrality by 2035. Increasing electrification emphasizes the need for significant emission reductions in power generation. As reduction in power generation emissions is partly realized by increase in intermittent energy sources, electricity storage may become an important part of a carbon neutral power system. This study investigates the behavior of electrical storages as a part of a large-scale national carbon-free power system model. As a case study, a three-year model of a carbon-free Finnish power system set in 2050 with the aim to identify various factors affecting electricity storage, and the results are compared with literature. The proposed case study features various scenarios with a national power system with very high amounts of renewables and a significant hydro capacity, while amount of combustion-based energy production is minimal. In addition, hydrological stress scenarios representing historically severe drought years were introduced. The amount of electricity storage needed was found to be most affected by nuclear and electricity trading capacities, which is consistent with literature findings. The data period used as basis for modeling also affected the need for electricity storage, as interannual variations in renewable production were found to have a large effect on modeled results. The needed electricity storage capacities increased significantly in the stress scenarios. The electricity storage need was found to be seasonal in nature, but this may be partly due to missing demand flexibility within the modeled power system, which caused very large individual storage discharge peaks. The results emphasize the need to take several years of historical data into account to ensure system availability in different conditions. Highlights • Nuclear energy was found to decrease system costs in a 100% carbon-free power system. • Multi-year modeling is essential to secure system availability due to the important role of hydropower and seasonal wind variability. • Electricity storages were found to be seasonal in nature. The main reason was exceptionally low windiness during individual periods, which resulted in large but temporarily short power deficits due to insufficient flexibility obtained from hydropower and power imports. This was especially evident in stress scenarios and mainly contributed to the higher costs in low-nuclear scenarios. • Detailed hydropower modelling of historically exceptional dry seasons in Finland was utilized as one stress scenario. Exceptionally, dry long-term period increased the need for electricity storages significantly due to the lost flexibility offered by hydro and reduced electricity import capacities.
... Because of their high impact in the dialogue surrounding 100% RE systems, EnergyPLAN and the LUT model are considered in more depth to understand their model structures and consequent effects on 100% RE scenario development. EnergyPLAN, introduced in 2006 [46], has been used in multi-sector 100% RE studies for the Aalborg Municipality [47], Åland Islands [48,49], Macedonia [50], Denmark [51,52], Scotland [53], Ireland [54,55], Finland [56], South East Europe [57], and the European Union [12], among others. The LUT model, introduced in 2015 [58] and inspired by an earlier model [59], has been utilised in 100% RE studies for global analyses of the power sector [15] but also all sectors [16], detailed sector coupling studies including the industry sector [17], applied for major regions as transition model for Europe [60] and Northeast Asia [61], while overnight scenarios have been applied for all major regions [14], country studies have been applied for single-node overnight [62], single-node transition [63] and multi-node transition [64] cases. ...
... EnergyPLAN allows for smart charging and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) connections as additional forms of flexibility storage, whose benefits are discussed in Refs. [49,56]. However, because the LUT model does not yet have smart charging or V2G capability, these options were not utilised, and all electricity for the road mode in the transport sector was treated as dump charge in EnergyPLAN. ...
... An additional feature that is allowed in Ener-gyPLAN but not capable in the LUT model is the capability to define flexible electricity demands on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. While flexible electricity demand is not a requirement for the integration of RE as demonstrated by this study and found by Kwon and Østergaard [100], Child and Breyer [56,101] find that flexible demand has a role in offsetting household and industrial electricity demands according to PV generation profiles, which can serve to reduce storage requirements and curtailment levels. With 50% of transport electricity demands being allocated to smart charging and daily flexibility corresponding to 10% of total annual electricity demand, total annualised system costs could be reduced by 0.13 b€. ...
Article
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As the discourse surrounding 100% renewable energy systems has evolved, several energy system modelling tools have been developed to demonstrate the technical feasibility and economic viability of fully sustainable, sector coupled energy systems. While the characteristics of these tools vary among each other, their purpose remains consistent in integrating renewable energy technologies into future energy systems. This paper examines two such energy system models, the LUT Energy System Transition model, an optimisation model, and the EnergyPLAN simulation tool, a simulation model, and develops cost-optimal scenarios under identical assumptions. This paper further analyses different novel modelling approaches used by modellers. Scenarios are developed using the LUT model for Sun Belt countries, for the case of Bolivia, to examine the effects of multi and single-node structuring, and the effects of overnight and energy transition scenarios are analysed. Results for all scenarios indicate a solar PV dominated energy system; however, limitations arise in the sector coupling capabilities in EnergyPLAN, leading it to have noticeably higher annualised costs compared to the single-node scenario from the LUT model despite similar primary levelised costs of electricity. Multi-nodal results reveal that for countries with rich solar resources, high transmission from regions of best solar resources adds little value compared to fully decentralised systems. Finally, compared to the overnight scenarios, transition scenarios demonstrate the impact of considering legacy energy systems in sustainable energy system analyses.
... More importantly, however, these sectors can act as sources of demand response, having promising prospects to provide flexibility and improve the efficiency of the energy system [164]. This has been shown in prior studies when analyzing the potentials to shift industrial [165], thermal [166], and electric transport loads [167]. This flexibility can also be reaped within the electricity sector, by considering flexible demands responsive to the costs of generation dispatch, which could cover second priority loads. ...
... In the European context, hourly electricity demands are readily available from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) [170]. ENTSO-E data is used in several national scope studies [81,147,[171][172][173][174], although others source data directly from relevant national bodies [133,166,[175][176][177] or as a synthesis of ENTSO-E and national statistics, via the Open Power System database [178]. When data is unavailable for countries, or subnational regions are being modelled, scaling factors are applied based on aggregated demand statistics [147,179], relative population magnitudes [133,142,177], or additional economic parameters and weighting ratios [180]; in all such cases, it is not possible to verify validity. ...
... Yet, it is clear that demand changes over time. Roadmaps for energy systems, such as the EIA international energy outlook [182], include estimations of the increase in demand and have been used to scale the magnitude of model input profiles accordingly [166,183]. However, the magnitude of demand is not the only element that will change, the profile shape is also variable. ...
Article
Energy system models are crucial to plan energy transition pathways and understand their impacts. A vast range of energy system modelling tools is available, providing modelling practitioners, planners, and decision-makers with multiple alternatives to represent the energy system according to different technical and methodological considerations. To better understand this landscape, here we identify current trends in the field of energy system modelling. First, we survey previous review studies, identifying their distinct focus areas and review methodologies. Second, we gather information about 54 energy system modelling tools directly from model developers and users. Unlike previous questionnaire-based studies solely focusing on technical descriptions, we include application aspects of the modelling tools, such as perceived policy-relevance, user accessibility, and model linkages. We find that, to assess the possible applications and to build a common understanding of the capabilities of these modelling tools, it is necessary to engage in dialogue with developers and users. We identify three main trends of increasing modelling of cross-sectoral synergies, growing focus on open access, and improved temporal detail to deal with planning future scenarios with high levels of variable renewable energy sources. However, key challenges remain in terms of representing high resolution energy demand in all sectors, understanding how tools are coupled together, openness and accessibility, and the level of engagement between tool developers and policy/decision-makers.
... Reports show that demand response could improve load following capability of the power systems [2][3][4]. Energy storage also has the potential to improve grid flexibility and increase grid penetration of variable renewable energy resources while curtailment was reported to lead to high penetration at reduced storage and conventional balancing resources [1,[5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. In a recent study, the link between curtailment, penetration and storage need was reported to play a significant role in system design during energy transition [24]. ...
... In a study by [24], it was shown that during the energy transition an optimal link between storage energy capacity, curtailment and VRE penetration exists. However, in a very diverse system both storage and curtailment could be minimised or even avoided depending on the mix with other resources, in particular hydropower but also bioenergy and their flexibility [13,33,41,42,45,48]. In addition, in order to utilise storage and generation resources efficiently, it is always preferable to pursue a strategy that promotes an energy system that relies on diverse RE resources than to go for 100% VRE. ...
... In that study, the share of solar PV, wind energy, hydropower and biomass power were 27%, 16%, 34% and 23%, respectively. The other examples are the Finnish system [13] summarised in Table 5 and the West African power system [41,42]. The storage in the case of the Finnish system is dominantly gas storage, which may be due to biogas digesters and synthetic natural gas, resulting in a large capacity at low penetration since the gas storage is mainly used for seasonal storage. ...
Article
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Resource complementarity carries significant benefit to the power grid due to its smoothing effect on variable renewable resource output. In this paper, we analyse literature data to understand the role of wind-solar complementarity in future energy systems by evaluating its impact on variable renewable energy penetration, corresponding curtailment, energy storage requirement and system reliability. Results show that wind-solar complementarity significantly increases grid penetration compared to stand-alone wind/solar systems without the need of energy storage. However, as capacity increases, the capability of complementarity to increase grid penetration approaches its limit due to the reduced matching of output to the load profile and pursuant increase in excess generation. Thus, achieving very high penetration requires appropriately designed energy storage and curtailment. Yet, even at higher grid penetration, complementarity carries significant multidimensional benefits to the power system. The most important observation was the achievement of very high grid penetration at reduced energy storage and balancing requirements compared to stand-alone systems. Researchers reported that using the same energy storage capacity, wind-solar complementarity led to significantly higher penetration of up to 20% of annual demand compared to stand-alone systems. In addition, by coupling to curtailment as an enabler, and related dispatch flexibility that comes with storage application, lower balancing capacity need was reported at higher penetration. Wind-solar complementarity was also found to reduce ramping need while contributing to improved system adequacy. Complementarity from other dispatchable renewable resources further reduces storage need and curtailment and improve system reliability, whereas power grid integration and relative cost changes allow for further optimisation while transitioning to 100% renewable energy.
... Indeed, the system flexibility without the massive PtG integration, it is not enough to allow a greater VRES use. In 2016, Child and Breyer studied a 100% RE scenario for Finnish energy system [25]. The geographical position strongly affects the energy demand as far as the VRES production, especially the PV plants, causing a wide variability season by season. ...
... Ref. [25] based its system flexibility on the PtG, owing to the need of long-term storages to meet seasonal variations in supply and demand sides. The hydrogen use versatility, due to the its subsequent syntheses, allows its exploitation in different energy sectors increasing system flexibility and integrating larger capacity of VRES. ...
... Moreover, further mutual connections can be obtained by DH. Since the CO 2 methanation reaction is an exothermic process, part of that waste heat can be recovered for supplying the heating networks [25]. ...
Preprint
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The growing penetration of non-programmable energy sources will largely contribute to intensify the renewable capacity firming issues. Providing a higher systems flexibility, i.e. the ability to match the supply and the demand sides as much as possible, is the main challenge to cope with, by adopting new energy planning paradigms. In this framework, different combined strategies, aiming at efficiently integrating that large amount of variable RES (VRES), have to be implemented. In the recent years, the Smart Energy Systems (SES) concept has been introduced to overcome the single-sector approach, promoting a holistic and integrated vision. By that approach, it is possible to exploit synergies between different energy sectors so as to identify the best technical options to globally reduce the primary fossil energy consumption. Starting from a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the most recent international studies dealing with the SES approach, the aim of this paper is to critically review and analyse the role of the main potential flexibility measures applied in the energy planning sector. In detail, Power-to-X and Demand Side Management (DSM) application have been considered, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of such strategies to accomplish the ambitious target of 100% renewable. From this literature review, it emerges how a single strategy adoption is not enough to guarantee the required flexibility level for the whole energy system. Indeed, the best configuration can be attained by integrating different options matching all the external constraints.
... The level of aggregation was even lower in a previous study which used the GENeSYS-MOD model to represent the whole world with 10 regions [30]. EnergyPLAN has been used for various relevant studies (e.g., [29,31,32]) with some granularity. EnergyPLAN differs from the other models listed in Table 1 by being a simulation tool [31] and a price-taker model [29,32]. ...
... EnergyPLAN has been used for various relevant studies (e.g., [29,31,32]) with some granularity. EnergyPLAN differs from the other models listed in Table 1 by being a simulation tool [31] and a price-taker model [29,32]. ...
Article
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This paper analyses optimal electricity investments (PV and battery storage) to decarbonise heat supply in residential buildings under different heat pump and energy retrofitting scenarios in a detailed representation of the Swiss power and heating system. The sensitivity of PV and storage deployment, including lithium-ion (LiB) and vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFB), with respect to distribution network capacity is also investigated. We propose an open-source dispatch sector coupling model (GRIMSEL-AH) to minimise energy system costs (social planner perspective) for heating and electricity supply in Switzerland with hourly and daily time resolution for electricity and heating respectively. Moreover, our representation of the Swiss energy system includes various types of consumers and urban settings which are represented with monitored electricity demand data for each sector and simulated heat demand data at the building level for the residential sector. We find that under a ''business as usual" heat pump deployment and retrofitting rate, the optimal electricity investments correspond to 27.8 GW p of PV combined with 16.9 GW (33.8 GWh) for LiB and 1.9 GW (7.6 GWh) for VRFB. For this case, 57% (13.3 TW th /year) of the residential heat demand is covered by heat pumps with a total installed capacity of 19.7 GW th by 2050 (capacity exogenously set with its operation optimised). With increasing heat pump deployment, retrofitting rates are found to have a large impact on the investment in storage and a 100% heat pump scenario for the residential sector appears to be feasible. Our results show that heat pumps do not only decarbonise heat but also provide extra flexibility to the power system, since they increase local PV self-consumption, resulting in higher PV deployment. The model and the methodology presented in this study can be applied to other countries.
... However, studies have also shown that expert views on the role of solar power are highly dependent on which stakeholder group the expert represents (Haukkala, 2018). Bold modelling studies for the Finnish energy system up to 2050 probe a scenario for a solar PV share of up to 10% of final energy consumption, arguing that the intermittency of solar (and other RES) can be addressed by means of daily and seasonal storage solutions (Child, Breyer and Haukkala, 2017;Child and Breyer, 2016), including hydro, heat storage, batteries, EVs, Power-to-Gas and other storage solutions. ...
... Multiple modelling studies of the Finnish energy system up to 2050 (Kiviluoma, Rinne and Helistö, 2018;Ikäheimo et al, 2018;Kiviluoma, 2013;Child and Breyer, 2016;Child, Breyer and Haukkala, 2017;Zakari et al, 2015) lend support to the vision of an energy system that is able to integrate high shares of RES (Holttinen, 2017). These studies focus on the technical capacities and possibilities to identify cost-effective solutions for developing the Finnish energy system. ...
Chapter
Finland, in line with its Nordic neighbours, has set itself ambitious goals to achieve carbon neutrality. By the late 2010s, the idea of a full-scale energy transition was mainstreamed in Finnish society alongside the expectation of renewable energy being the main production component in the Finnish energy system. In this chapter, we argue that an increased share of renewable energy sources is associated with the trends of electrification, decentralisation and variability. These trends contribute to a move from a production-centric to a consumption-centric energy system and require a focus on how flows of electricity are managed, stored and redistributed and how this affects the interests of the widening field of stakeholders. We focus on stakeholders’ interests as they navigate and respond to the trends associated with a higher share of renewable energy in the system with a special focus on grid development and energy storage. Our analysis highlights that whereas the need for a transition to higher shares of renewable energy is being mainstreamed, the policy development necessary is still in a formative phase and stakeholders struggle to balance and interlink the variety of their interests.
... Simulations of low carbon electricity systems with a very high share of RE (100% or near 100%) have been widely studied at global and national levels, with examples covering global [17,18], Europe [19][20][21][22], North America [23], North-East [24] and South-East [25] Asia, the United States [26,27], Germany [28], Denmark [29], Finland [30], Ireland [31], Australia [4][5][6]32] and China [33]. Due to a large number of space and time variables (e.g., the hourly power delivered from RE) involved in finding the least-cost configuration for a national power supply system, some simplifications in terms of time, space and/or optimisation method have been made in most of these studies. ...
... The spatial distribution of RE generators and transmission topology is not considered in Refs. [28][29][30][31] and is described at a low spatial resolution with pre-assumed transmission lines in Ref. [4,5,[17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27]32] (e.g., 9 or 20 grids for globe [17,18], 15-30 grids for Europe [19][20][21][22], 13 or 33 grids for North-East/South-East Asia [24,25], 10-13 grids for the United States [26,27] and 43 cells for Australia [4,5,32]). Under theses simplifications in space-time, to find the least-cost configuration, the optimisation is assumed to be linear in Ref. [17,[20][21][22][23][24], and is under previously defined dispatch orders (e.g., according to dispatchable or non-dispatchable characteristics [19] or merit orders [5]) for the RE resources. ...
Article
Because of the variability of wind and solar resources, high shares of wind and solar PV in power supply systems can lead to supply gaps during occasional low-resource periods. Due to their ability to meet demand in a short term, dispatchable renewable energy (RE) resources – biomass, concentrating solar power (CSP) and hydropower – can assist in meeting such supply gaps. In this study, we investigate the spatial and temporal configurations of least-cost 100% renewable power supply in Australia, at various levels of biomass resource use and CSP penetration. To this end, we carry out a high-resolution Geographic Information System (GIS)-based hourly electricity supply-demand matching simulation. We find that, based on the current existing biomass capacity (1.7 GW) installed in Australia, a 100% national RE supply is possible with around 146–148 GW system installed capacity at a levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) of 9–10 US’ kWh-1 (95% level of confidence). Under a 5–15 times expansion of biomass, the system capacity would be reduced to around 70–110 GW at an LCoE of 6–8 US’ kWh-1. Depending on limitations to the generation from biomass posed by competing land uses, CSP could play an important role in reducing the system capacity to nearly 120 GW.
... In any case, most of the studies conclude that a 100 % RE electric system is technologically feasible [9] and also economically viable [10][11][12]. Some studies [13][14][15][16] at the country level on 100 % RE systems, for all end-use of energy, have revealed that it would be technically possible in the long-term, where electrification, sustainable fuels production and sectoral integration would be pivotal. However, there is still a discussion about the pathways to go down for a fully sustainable energy system. ...
... The third was sustainable fuels production, essentially based on PtX, to produce green hydrogen first and then synthetic gas and liquid fuels. These vital elements are fully in line with several studies [13][14][15][16][91][92][93][94][95][96][97][98][99] applied to different scales in other parts of the world, and with proposed actions by IRENA [100] and REN21 [7] reports. ...
Article
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The aim of this research is to analyse the impact of renewable energy (RE) technologies and sector coupling via analysing the transition pathways towards a sustainable energy system in Chile. Four energy transition scenarios for the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors were assessed using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The current policy scenario was modelled and compared with three best policy scenarios. The results showed that the transition to a 100 % renewable-based energy system by 2050 is technically feasible. Further, such an energy system would be more cost-efficient than the current policy scenario to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The results also indicate that Chile could reach carbon neutrality by 2030 and become a negative greenhouse gas emitter country by 2035. In a 100 % renewable-based energy system, solar photovoltaics (PV) would contribute 86 % of electricity generation, which would represent 83 % of the total final energy demand for the year 2050. This would imply the use of about 10 % of the available techno-economic RE potential of the country. Three vital elements (high level of renewable electrification across all sectors, flexibility and RE-based fuel production) and three key enablers (solar PV, interconnection and full sectoral integration) were identified in order to transition to a fully sustainable energy system. Chile could contribute to the global sustainable energy transition and advance to the global post-fossil fuels economy through the clean extraction of key raw materials and RE-based fuels and chemicals production.
... Jagemann et al. [7] evaluated the impact of the 100% RES policy o power industry in Europe to assess the feasibility of realizing a 100% RES by 2050. sidering the energy market and the potential of renewable resources, Hansen et a studied a transition strategy for Germany to achieve 100% renewable energy by Child et al. [8] established a model based on the energy scenario of Finland in the f to assess the feasibility of realizing 100% RES by 2050. Jacobson et al. [9] analyzed a to achieve 100% renewable energy supply in the United States by 2050 by considerin renewable energy distribution in 50 states. ...
... Considering the energy market and the potential of renewable resources, Hansen et al. [2] studied a transition strategy for Germany to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050. Child et al. [8] established a model based on the energy scenario of Finland in the future to assess the feasibility of realizing 100% RES by 2050. Jacobson et al. [9] analyzed a way to achieve 100% renewable energy supply in the United States by 2050 by considering the renewable energy distribution in 50 states. ...
Article
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A 100% renewable energy system (RES) satisfies a user’s energy demand using only renewable energy, which is an important energy supply in China given that the government aims to realize carbon neutrality by 2060. The design and operation of 100% RESs in different areas would vary significantly due to the impacts of climates and geographical features. This study aimed to investigate the economic and environmental performance of 100% RESs for residential communities in different areas of China. In total, 30 typical cities were chosen based on the climate characteristics and the availability of renewable energy resources. The genetic algorithm was selected to obtain the optimal design of the 100% RES in each area by taking the minimum total annual cost and the minimum CO2 emissions as optimization objectives. The results showed that 100% RESs were dominated by solar energy and biomass. The investment could be recovered in 8 years if the economic performance was optimized in most areas, but the payback period became longer when the 100% RES was optimized when considering environmental performance. The emissions could be reduced by 86–99% for CO2 and 64–97% for NOx. The results of this study would provide data support for the investment of 100% RESs in rural or suburban areas of China.
... Throughout a previous couple of years, the quantity Proceedings of the 2019 5th International Conference on Advances in Electrical Engineering (ICAEE), 26-28 September, Dhaka, Bangladesh 978-1-7281-4934-9/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE of national and global guests has been expanding quickly in Malaysia. Then again, the interest of the family unit exercises has been expanded significantly [12]. The extending power use and imperativeness time costs, dreadful atmosphere moreover environment states have extended that eagerness toward the sustainable essentialness system. ...
... On the other hand, EnergyPLAN is the most commonly used software for energy planning at different scales since it enables the user to consider the energy system as a whole, accounting for electricity, heating, cooling, industry, transport and water demands. EnergyPLAN main limit consists of a lack of a powerful tool for economic [25] and an optimisation analysis [26]. ...
... According to [32], an oversized solar PV plant is more profitable than a plant dimensioned to consume all the produced solar electricity. On the other hand, it has been estimated in the 100% renewable-based energy scenario that Finland requires about 30-35 GWp of solar PV capacity to meet the need [33]. This means, in practice, that there is a need for 5.5-6.4 ...
Article
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The current target to decrease the energy consumption of buildings is important as the residential sector consumes a significant part of the energy over the energy chain. Another driver is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Renewable energy sources and technical solutions should play the main role in this pursuit. In this paper, a zero-energy log house in southern Finland is analyzed in detail. The analysis consists of the design, construction, and practical use during the years 2017–2019. The objective of the study is to show that a highly energy efficient log house can be achieved in Nordic conditions without additional insulation by utilizing renewable energy sources and energy technical solutions. The energy efficiency of the house is clearly higher than defined in the national nearly zero-energy building (nZEB) regulations. The house has a plus energy classification and carbon negative emissions for the energy. The operational cost of electricity is on both sides of zero.
... CHP with thermal storage could be an economical and technically attractive option for balancing wind power [34], but studies indicate that replacing CHP with power-to-heat solutions (heat pumps and electric boilers) and heat storage could be even more economically feasible for wind power integration [13,30,33,35]. A 100% renewable scenario for Finland relying on powerto-gas has also been investigated [36]. In addition, load-shifting [29] and electric vehicles [37] could provide additional system flexibility, especially in combination with power-to-heat solutions [30]. ...
Article
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Variable renewable electricity (VRE) will play an important role in future energy systems, but additional flexibility measures will be needed to integrate large-scale VRE into energy systems. Here we investigate the effectiveness of different flexibility options to integrate wind power, using the Finnish energy system as a case. The main flexibility options considered are sector-coupling such as power-to-heat and power-to-gas, energy storages, and electric vehicles. The results indicate that the share of wind power could be increased up to one third of all electricity, limited by the cross-border transmission capacity and the high share of nuclear power in the Finnish case, while simultaneously decreasing annual system costs and carbon emissions. Power-to-heat and wind power curtailment were the most cost-effective flexibility options. Furthermore, combined heat and power (CHP) and nuclear power could form a barrier to cost-effective wind power integration, suggesting that viewing the energy system as a whole provides valuable insight for wind power integration. Keywords: Wind power integration, Energy system flexibility, Energy system modelling, Finland
... Several studies have reported the technical feasibility and economic viability of 100% renewable energy systems for various parts of the world, e.g. Finland [26], Denmark [27], Australia [28], Israel [6], India [29,30], Pakistan [31], Southeast Asia [32], Nigeria [33], Sub-Saharan Africa [34], etc. According to Brown et al. [35], 100% renewable energy systems are already technically feasible and economically viable with decreasing costs every year. ...
... Several pieces of research investigated 100% or near-100% renewable energy systems from national perspectives. Such investigation includes energy system analysis of Australia [11,12], Barbados [13], Belgium [14], Brazil [15][16][17][18], Canada [17], China [19], Colombia [20], Costa Rica [17], Croatia [21], Denmark [22][23][24][25][26], Finland [26,27], France [28], Germany [29][30][31], Great Britain [32], Iceland [26], India and the SAARC region [33,34], Iran [35], Ireland [36,37], Italy [38], Japan [39], Macedonia [40], New Zealand [41], Nicaragua [42], Nigeria [43], Norway [17,26], Pakistan [44], Paraguay [5,18], Portugal [45], Saudi Arabia [46], Seychelles [47], Tokelau [48], Turkey [49], Ukraine [50], the United Kingdom [51][52][53], the United States [54][55][56], and Uruguay [18]. Other than these national studies, there are many other 100% renewable system studies larger than national energy systems covering the World [55,[57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64], North-East Asia [65], the ASEAN region [66], Europe and its neighbors [67], Europe [68][69][70][71][72], South-East Europe [73], and the Americas [74]. ...
Article
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The ambitious energy target to achieve climate-neutrality in the European Union (EU) energy system raises the feasibility question of using only renewables across all energy sectors. As one of the EU’s leading industrialized countries, Germany has adopted several climate-action plans for the realistic implementation and maximum utilization of renewable energies in its energy system. The literature review shows a clear gap in comprehensive techniques describing an open modeling approach for analyzing fully renewable and sector-coupled energy systems. This paper outlines a method for analyzing the 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled energy system’s feasibility in Germany. Based on the open energy modeling framework, an hourly optimization tool ‘OSeEM-DE’ is developed to investigate the German energy system. The model results show that a 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled system for electricity and building heat is feasible in Germany. The investment capacities and component costs depend on the parametric variations of the developed scenarios. The annual investment costs vary between 17.6 and 26.6 bn €/yr for volatile generators and between 23.7 and 28.8 bn €/yr for heat generators. The model suggests an investment of a minimum of 2.7–3.9 bn €/yr for electricity and heat storage. Comparison of OSeEM-DE results with recent studies validates the percentage-wise energy mix composition and the calculated Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) values from the model. Sensitivity analyses indicate that storage and grid expansion maximize the system’s flexibility and decrease the investment cost. The study concludes by showing how the tool can analyze different energy systems in the EU context.
... The combination of object-oriented programming and integrated development environment known as Delphi Pascal programming is used to calculate the above outputs. EnergyPLAN is already a developed tool that has been used in modelling 100% renewable energy in countries like Ireland, Denmark, Croatia, Latvia, Netherland, Portugal, Macedonia and Finland [25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. This energy system analysis tool has already been used in Hong Kong energy modelling and several case studies of China including, Chongming, Beijing and Jiangsu province [33][34][35][36]. ...
Article
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Traditional energy supply infrastructures are on the brink of facing a major transformation due to energy security concerns, environment pollution, renewable energy intermittency and fossil fuel scarcity. A hybrid energy system constitutes the integration of different energy carriers like electricity, heat and fuel which play a vital role in addressing the above challenges. Various technological options like combined heat and power, heat pumps, electrolysers and energy storages ease out multiple carrier integration in an energy hub to increase system flexibility and efficiency. This work models the hybrid energy system of China for the year 2030 by using EnergyPLAN. Atmosphere decarbonization is achieved by replacing conventional coal and natural gas boilers with alternative individual heating sources like hydrogen operated micro combined heat and power natural gas micro combined heat and power and heat pumps. Moreover, rockbed storage as well as single and double penstock pumped hydro storages are added in the proposed system in order to cope with the stochastic nature of intermittent renewable energy such as wind and solar photovoltaic. The technical simulation strategy is employed to analyze the optimal combination of energy producing components by determining annual costs, fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions. The results substantiate that a heat pump and double penstock pumped hydro storage addition to the individual heating and electricity network not only proves to be an economically viable option but also reduces fuel consumption and emissions.
... While Table 20 is not exhaustive in its coverage, this figure does highlight a need for more government activity in this space. • Only two of the reports reviewed applied the most ambitious combination of scenarios, that is, zero-carbon, full range of GHG focus and 100% renewable energy target; these were Allen et al. (2013) and Child and Breyer (2016). This perhaps suggests an element of conservatism in scenario modelling and flags potential scope for more ambitious and radical modelling of future scenarios. ...
... The EPLANopt model merges a MOEA with the EnergyPLAN model. As previously explained, even though EnergyPLAN is one of the most commonly used software for energy planning, it has some limits; its main limits consist of a lack of a powerful tool for economic [38] and optimisation analysis [39]. Several studies integrated EnergyPLAN with other software in order to enhance the results accuracy [40], or with optimisation models [41] so as to identify the best technology mix for the future energy system. ...
Article
Energy costs, carbon dioxide emissions, security of supply and system stability are common challenges in small islands all over the world. The European Union identified islands as perfect sites to implement innovative solutions to boost the energy transition towards a sustainable, independent, secure and low carbon energy system. In this framework, energy planning is an indispensable tool to optimally design the future energy system selecting proper renewable energy sources as well as the optimal flexibility strategies such as electric energy storage or sector coupling solutions. Energy system modelling represents one of the most used method for energy planning; indeed, energy models enable to simulate the real energy system functioning as well as its operation costs. Nevertheless, not many researches using multi-objective optimisation have been applied to insular case studies. In this paper, the EPLANopt model is applied to the case study of the Favignana Island in order to investigate the optimal configurations of the island energy system in 2050 with a multi-objective analysis. In order to appropriately analyse the case study of a non-interconnected island, an additional constraint is analysed to preliminary consider the system stability. The model is used to evaluate different energy mix, based on high penetration of renewables, considering several solutions for handling the excess electricity production (namely, electricity energy storage, power to heat and power to transport solutions) and to improve the overall energy efficiency (i.e. solar collectors and heat pumps). Results show that sector coupling solutions would lead to much greater impact in terms of carbon avoidance and economic savings managing the non-dispatchable renewable generation and maintaining the critical excess electricity production within feasible values. Results show that Favignana should indeed bet on photovoltaic and if vehicle-to-grid strategies are largely adopted the need for electricity storages is strongly reduced.
... However, this is not always the case and yet, batteries are still crucial for enabling high penetrations of renewable energy sources. In the case of Finland, the total battery capacity needed to obtain a 100% renewable energy system would translate to an equivalent of 10 kWh in each building, although the authors have clearly noted that not all buildings are expected to have batteries [63]. Batteries have also been considered in the analyses for a 100% renewable system for other countries such as Portugal [64], Germany [65] and Turkey [66]. ...
Conference Paper
Recent evidence shows that the energy system is on the verge of a new leap driven by significant cost reductions of renewables, appalling environmental concerns and a tendency to digitize and decentralize the operation of energy systems. In this new paradigm, it is the role of science to enable the transition towards a sustainable energy system by providing novel ideas and challenging the status quo. This paper analyses some notable conceptual developments that have been present in the literature. It essentially aims to provide an overview of how some of the theoretically conceived concepts underlying the energy sector coupling, with a specific focus on demand response, batteries and district heating, have contributed to the energy transition debate. In order to achieve this, each concept is traced from its initial proposition, through its evolution in the scientific literature and finally to its deployment in pilot cases or widespread use. The paper also provides a comprehensive discussion on the effects that such concepts have in formulating new legislation and policies, as well as a discussion on the social and institutional barriers for their deployment. Finally, the paper maps the future challenges that lie ahead for science with regards to the transition to a more sustainable energy system.
... For example, the cost-optimal share of renewable energy generation for Great Britain in 2050 was evaluated to be at least 50% [14]. It is also technically and economically possible to base energy systems in a particular country [15] or across Europe entirely on renewable energy [16]. The main VRES integration methodologies described in the literature can be classified into two categories: direct integration to improve the representation of VRES into long-term energy system optimisation models like MESSAGE or TIMES (our chosen direction) and the soft-linking [17] of planning and operational models. ...
Article
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For future low-carbon energy systems with high shares of renewable energy, temporal representation becomes the dominant factor that impacts the model outputs and analysis conclusions; therefore, relevant and complex modelling approaches are required. We present and apply specific methodology for modelling wind power plants in long-term planning models. It is based on wind power probability curves for each time slice and use of the semi-dynamic method for temporal aspect. Benefits of this approach include the representation of wind power extremes, correct address of balancing capacities and costs, partially retained chronology. We also evaluated the quantitative effect of this methodology on the results of the energy model. In determining the reasonable number of approximation steps for wind power probability curves, we found that a three-step approximation is sufficient to ensure the accuracy of model results.
... Results indicate that the wind capacity of 450 MW and solar power plant capacities of 300 MW could be installed in the current energy system of Kosovo. Entirely renewable energy system based on a high share of photovoltaic (PV) in Finland was analysed in Ref. [26]. Results show that it is possible to achieve such a system feasibly even in northern latitudes. ...
Article
In order to mitigate the climate change process, the European Union has adopted a European Green Deal, which foresees zero net emissions of greenhouse gases for all member states by 2050. This paper investigates the possibility of achieving a 100% renewable energy system that would meet the requirements set out in this agreement. Montenegro was used as a case study to analyse different energy transition pathways. Two scenarios with different dynamics of integrating renewable energy sources in the energy system were determined for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Scenarios were simulated and analysed in the EnergyPLAN model. Due to the large potential in Montenegro, hydropower plants will have a significant share in the production of electricity, but special attention was given to the integration of variable renewable energy sources like solar and wind energy. The analysis shows that it will be possible to achieve a 100% renewable energy system in both scenarios with the implementation of energy efficiency measures, energy storage systems, synergies with the transportation sector, and balancing through demand response.
... Due to the northern location of Finland, the achievable PV production profile is distinct with high insolation in the long summer days, and low in the short winter days [30]. Hence, utilizing excess PV electricity production in the summer to drive heat pumps and storing the generated heat seasonally could be one solution to balance this characteristic. ...
Article
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Due to the high energy consumption of buildings, there is a demand for both economically and environmentally effective designs for building energy system retrofits. While multi-objective optimization can be used to solve complicated problems, its use is not yet widespread in the industry. This study first aims to develop an efficient and applicable multi-objective building energy system optimization method, used to dimension energy production and storage retrofit components in a case campus building in Lahti, Finland. Energy consumption data of the building are obtained with a dynamic energy model. The optimization model includes economic and environmental objectives, and the approach is found to function satisfactorily. Second, this study aims to assess the feasibility and issues of multi-objective single-building energy system optimization via the analysis of the case optimization results. The results suggest that economically beneficial local energy production and storage retrofits could not always lead to life cycle CO2-eq emission reductions. The recognized causes are high life cycle emissions from the retrofit components and low Nordic grid energy emissions. The performed sensitivity and feasibility analyses show that correctness and methodological comparability of the used emission factors and future assumptions are crucial for reliable optimization results.
... Smart energy systems, i.e., systems that integrate multiple energy sectors [6], have been modelled for local, small scale systems such as villages and cities [8][9][10][11][12], as well as for the global scale [13][14][15][16]. The region that received the largest attention is Europe as a whole [17][18][19][20] and some nations such as Denmark [21,22], Ireland [23,24], Scotland, [25] Italy [26], and Finland [27]. Similarly, Germany has been modelled as a 100% RE system in different studies [2,3,28,29]. ...
Article
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To be able to fulfil the Paris Climate Agreement and keep global warming with reasonable confidence at a maximum of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, Germany must set an end to all greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. At the core of this task is the switch to 100% renewables across all sectors on the same time horizon. Conventional technologies fueled by fossil and nuclear energies are, according to the vast majority of current cost calculations, energetically inefficient, too expensive, and too slow in expansion to be able to deliver a substantial contribution to rapid climate protection. We present the first comprehensive energy scenario that shows the way to 100% renewable energy for all energy sectors by 2030. The result of the calculations is a cost-effective energy system that is compatible with the German share of necessary greenhouse gas reduction. This study shows a target system of generation, conversion, and storage technologies that can achieve the transformation to 100% renewable energy in all energy sectors—electricity, heat, and mobility—in time and at competitive costs below the costs of the current system. Moreover, we demonstrate the huge cost effect that arises if southern Germany renounces its onshore wind resources and find that this would substantially increase the need for high-voltage direct-current transmission capacity.
... The literature has claimed advantages regarding decreasing costs related to the heat sector. In studies such as [25] and [62], researchers concluded that interconnections between sectors powered by RE, including the heat sector, have the potential to decrease overall costs of energy systems and providing high amounts of heat [63]. Furthermore, as stated in Section 1, taking advantage of waste heat sources is one of the key ways to increasing efficiency while decreasing costs of energy systems and the possibility of using such source to power CO2 Direct Air Capture (DAC) [64] contributes even more to the 100% RE scenario. ...
Article
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The energy transition towards a scenario with 100% renewable energy sources (RES) for the energy system is starting to unfold its effects and is increasingly accepted. In such a scenario, a predominant role will be played by large photovoltaic and wind power plants. At the same time, the electrification of energy consumption is expected to develop further, with the ever-increasing diffusion of electric transport, heat pumps, and power-to-gas technologies. The not completely predictable nature of the RES is their well-known drawback, and it will require the use of energy storage technologies, in particular large-scale power-to-chemical conversion and chemical-to-power re-conversion, in view of the energy transition. Nonetheless, there is a lack in the literature regarding an analysis of the potential role of small–medium CCHP technologies in such a scenario. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to address what could be the role of the Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and/or Combined Cooling Heat and Power (CCHP) technologies fed by waste heat within the mentioned scenario. First, in this paper, a review of small–medium scale CHP technologies is performed, which may be fed by low temperature waste heat sources. Then, a review of the 100% RE scenario studied by researchers from the Lappeenranta University of Technology (through the so-called “LUT model”) is conducted to identify potential low temperature waste heat sources that could feed small–medium CHP technologies. Second, some possible interactions between those mentioned waste heat sources and the reviewed CHP technologies are presented through the crossing data collected from both sides. The results demonstrate that the most suitable waste heat sources for the selected CHP technologies are those related to gas turbines (heat recovery steam generator), steam turbines, and internal combustion engines. A preliminary economic analysis was also performed, which showed that the potential annual savings per unit of installed kW of the considered CHP technologies could reach EUR 255.00 and EUR 207.00 when related to power and heat production, respectively. Finally, the perspectives about the carbon footprint of the CHP/CCHP integration within the 100% renewable energy scenario were discussed.
... Switzerland and its neighbors, or other comparable combinations of multiple European countries, and pan-European studies. Readers interested in other European countries are referred to case studies for Croatia [28], Denmark [29,30], Finland [31], Hungary [32], Ireland [33], Israel [34], Macedonia [35], Portugal [36,37], Ukraine [38], and the United Kingdom [39]. Furthermore, global case studies have been conducted [40][41][42]. ...
Article
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The increasing use of renewable energy leads to a higher share of intermittent and volatile electricity generation. In this paper, we develop FLEXIES, a new open-source power system optimization model to determine the cost-efficient deployment of renewable electricity generation technologies and flexibility technologies. We apply FLEXIES in a case study of power systems in Central Europe (Switzerland, Austria, France, Germany, and Italy) in 2030, 2040, and 2050. The case study indicates that low-carbon electricity generation, batteries, and power-to-gas, consisting of multiple gas storages, are cost-efficient in 2050 – rather than burning natural gas in gas turbines. Such decarbonized power systems could be cost-efficient earlier assuming sufficiently high carbon prices. Furthermore, we find that onshore wind is prioritized over highly volatile solar generation due to a lower need for electricity storage. Interconnections enable higher shares of uniform generation technologies (on– and offshore wind, nuclear, biomass-waste) and reduce the need for solar and storage. Hence, compared to a case in which countries are isolated, interconnections reduce total electricity generation by up to 8.2%, system costs by up to 16.3%, and carbon equivalent emissions by up to 9.0%. Finally, we observe that decarbonized power systems entail a cost shift from the operational to the investment phase and total normalized costs could be higher than power market prices. Thus, new mechanisms may be needed to incentivize decarbonized power systems.
Article
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The electricity sector contributes to most of the global warming emissions generated from fossil fuel resources which are becoming rare and expensive due to geological extinction and climate change. It urges the need for less carbon-intensive, inexhaustible Renewable Energy Sources (RES) that are economically sound, easy to access and improve public health. The carbon-free salient feature is the driving motive that propels widespread utilization of wind and solar RES in comparisons to rest of RES. However, stochastic nature makes these sources, Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) because it brings uncertainty and variability that disrupt power system stability. This problem is mitigated by adding Energy Storage (ES) or introducing the Demand Response (DR) in the system. In this work, an electricity generation network of China by the year 2017 is modelled using EnergyPLAN software to determine annual costs, Primary Energy Supply (PES) and CO2 emissions. VRES size is optimized by adding ES and DR (daily, weekly or monthly) while maintaining Critical Excess Electricity Production (CEEP) to zero. The results substantiate that ES and DR increase wind and solar share up to 1000 GW and 874 GW. Additionally, it also reduces annual costs and emissions up to 4.36 % and 45.17 %.
Technical Report
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Personal input to the review of the European Investment Bank Climate and Energy Framework. It replies to requests for input on [1] additional dimensions to include in the long-term strategy, [2] strategical areas where the EIB could improve and [3] where the EIB should focus its support on in terms of energy investments and technology. The input consists of: [1] An argumentation to consider open-source and ambitious technologically-based research on feasibility of 100 % renewables and decarbonisation, shortcomings of carbon pricing and carbon markets (EU ETS) as a sole tool to tackle decarbonisation and argumentation to take into account cross-border flows (both material and energy) in a solid methodological framework. [2] A summary and contribution for input by Bjarne Steffen from ETH on private vs. multilateral bank investment flows related to climate and energy projects, and the importance of EIB's role in convincing local governments to opt for low-carbon technologies and building capacity. [3] A collected bibliography to consider recent research on 100 % renewables and Global Grid studies and academic articles and NGO reports on the functioning and shortcomings of the EU ETS System. Further information: - Background and timeline of consultation process: https://www.eib.org/en/about/partners/cso/consultations/item/public-consultation-energy-lending-policy.htm [output and conclusions expected in the third quarter of 2019] - Overview of all consultation contributions: * List : https://www.eib.org/en/about/partners/cso/consultations/item/public-consultation-energy-lending-policy.htm * Zip-file of contributions: - Personal collection of EIB Consultation documents : https://floriandierickx.github.io/eib-consultation/eib/index.html - Personal collection of Climate Finance research and reports : https://floriandierickx.github.io/eib-consultation/cc-cb/index.html - Personal collection of 100 % renewables research : https://floriandierickx.github.io/library/renewables/index.html - Personal collection on EU ETS functioning : https://floriandierickx.github.io/library/eu-ets/index.html
Article
The aim of this study is to analyse impacts of renewable energy sources in achieving Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) targets of Turkey. INDCs as a part the Paris Agreement are based on national circumstances of countries on climate change. In order to reach the global goal of the Paris Agreement, countries shall monitor, update and upgrade their INDCs. The overall target of Turkish INDC is to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 21 per cent from the Business as Usual (BaU) level by 2030. In this study, three scenarios are developed namely Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC. These scenarios are used to analyse impacts of utilization of renewable energy on INDC target of Turkey. It is projected that Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC can reduce cumulative 566, 511 and 428 million tons of CO2 emissions respectively. These mitigation amounts could correspondingly provide 32, 29 and 24 per cent of the cumulative emission reduction targets in Turkey's INDC. Total additional costs of Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC scenarios are estimated as 12.52, 11.80 and 10.73 billion USD for the period of 2018–2030. Average unit costs of emissions reduction vary between 6.36 and 61.13 USD per reduced ton of CO2 emissions. In order to guarantee INDC target, Turkey should set new renewable energy targets for the INDC period.
Article
Greenhouse gases along with pollution generated by the present energy paradigm widely based on fossil fuels are providing large impacts in terms of climate change and the health of human and biological systems at large. A shift in the energy paradigm, from fossil fuels to renewable energy, is urgently needed for nature and society. This is what we refer to as the energy transition. An old commodity – electricity – can play a new key role in the energy transition. That can happen through what we call the electricity triangle involving electricity generation from Renewable Energy Sources, exploitation of electricity as the main energy vector, and electrification of the final energy uses in all sectors. The possible deployment of the electricity triangle must be carefully assessed in all its possible implications, from technological, economic, societal and environmental perspectives. In this paper, we conceptualize the electricity triangle as a viable approach to the energy transition, and we propose a set of holistic metrics to assess its possible impacts. We apply the electricity triangle framework to the case of Italy based on sectorial studies on RES generation and electrification in building, industry and transport sectors. Our results indicate that Italy in 2050 has the potential to achieve 85.6% penetration of RES in its electricity supply, while 41%, 53% and 42% of the energy consumptions in transport, residential, and industry sectors will be electrified. Ultimately, this would lead to a 68% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to current levels.
Article
The European Hydrogen Strategy set an electrolysers' capacity target of 40 GW by 2030. This will lead to a sudden expansion of the electrolyser industry across Europe and the unit cost of electrolyser production will steeply decrease. The purpose of the present work is to integrate the learning curve approach with the national energy and economic planning, taking the Italian Hydrogen Strategy as a case study. Different learning curves and different roadmaps for the electrolysers' installation have been combined in order to model scenarios for predicting progressive fall in the electrolysers’ CAPEX. The investment needed to implement the strategy ranges between 1.5 and 3.3 G€ and depends mainly on the learning curve scenario. The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen has been calculated by changing different boundary conditions. Moreover, an incentive scheme has been proposed by comparing the green hydrogen cost to the blue and grey ones. Under the hypothesis of a fully-blended hydrogen use in the gas grid, a potential CO2 reduction up to 8.4 MtonCO2 over the decade can be accomplished. The main barrier to the economic competitiveness of Power to Gas systems is the still too high price of renewable electricity. It will be optimistic to obtain hydrogen prices lower than 2.44 €/kgH2 in Italy by 2030. Nevertheless, the deployment of the Hydrogen Valleys, where both production and consumption coexist, can reduce the carbon avoidance cost. Finally, it has been demonstrated that the failure to achieve the European targets is associated with higher hydrogen production costs and higher decarbonisation costs.
Article
The world faces two pressing challenges: on the one hand, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C; on the other hand, enabling socio-economic development that is inclusive and equitable. These two challenges should not be seen as conflicting and should be addressed simultaneously. This is particularly true as we look forward to a post-COVID recovery efforts. The solution may partially rest on the transition to sustainable and renewable energy systems. The energy transition comprises presumptions of energy efficiency, affordability, reliability, and energy independence. And in developing countries, in particular, it also entails expectations of economic development, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability. Since most of the remaining renewable energy potential lies in developing countries, these countries will play a crucial role. This paper reviews the status of the energy transition in the Global South, by surveying scientific and grey literature and synthesising the wide scope of alternatives available to accelerate and enhance the transition to renewable energy systems. The alternatives and approaches found are encapsulated in three dimensions: technology, society, and policy. A roadmap presents the potential synergies that could be established across dimensions and sectors to aid the energy transition in developing countries. Concisely, the transition can be achieved by adopting and implementing technologies already commercially-available that improve the efficiency, affordability, and reliability of energy systems, by redefining and reclaiming citizens’ participation in energy planning and policy-making, and by democratically restructuring institutions and monitoring to boost transparency, accountability, and trust.
Chapter
100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything - by Mark Z Jacobson October 2020
Article
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About 75% of the world's energy consumption takes place in cities. Although their large energy consumption attracts a large number of research projects, only a small fraction of them deal with approaches to model energy systems of city districts. These are particularly complex due to the existence of multiple energy sectors (multi-energy systems, MES), different consumption sectors (mixed-use), and different stakeholders who have many different interests. This contribution is a review of the characteristics of energy system models and existing modeling tools. It evaluates current studies and identifies typical characteristics of models designed to optimize MES in mixed-use districts. These models operate at a temporal resolution of at least 1 h, follow either bottom-up or hybrid analytical approaches and make use of mixed-integer programming, linear or dynamic. These characteristics were then used to analyze minimum requirements for existing modeling tools. Thirteen of 145 tools included in the study turned out to be suitable for optimizing MES in mixed-use districts. Other tools where either created for other fields of application (12), do not include any methodology of optimization (39), are not suitable to cover city districts as a geographical domain (44), do not include enough energy or demand sectors (20), or operate at a too coarse temporal resolution (17). If additional requirements are imposed, e.g. the applicability of non-financial assessment criteria and open source availability, only two tools remain. Overall it can be stated that there are very few modeling tools suitable for the optimization of MES in mixed-use districts.
Article
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A cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100 % renewable energy was simulated for Finland. This transition was consistent with EU and international targets to achieve sstainability, while maintaining national competitiveness. Finland was divided into 7 regions that account for resource distribution and demand differences at high spatial and hourly time resolutions. Results indicate that levelised cost of electricity can decrease from 61 €/MWh in 2015 to 53 €/MWh in 2050 and that levelised cost of heat can decrease from 29 €/MWh to 20 €/MWh based on the assumptions used in this study. Transport sector costs decrease for most vehicle classes through electrification but increase marginally for classes that use bioenergy-based or sustainable synthetic fuels. Costs decrease through the adoption of flexible generation by several renewable energy technologies, intra-regional interconnections, and the use of low-cost energy storage solutions. Results show less need for combined heat and power plants as the electrification increases through sector integration. Individuals and groups can become prosumers of energy, motivated by a desire to contribute to climate action and making choices for lower cost, sustainable energy. Collectively, society can increase a sense of agency through lower exposure to risks. A 100 % renewable energy system can be a resilient, low cost and low risk option for the future.
Article
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To date, roadmaps and policies for transitioning from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy have been developed for nations, provinces, states, cities, and towns in order to address air pollution, global warming, and energy insecurity. However, neither roadmaps nor policies have been developed for large metropolitan areas (aggregations of towns and cities), including megacities (metropolitan areas with populations above 10 million). This study bridges that gap by developing roadmaps to transition 74 metropolitan areas worldwide, including 30 megacities, to 100% wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) energy and storage for all energy sectors by no later than 2050, with at least 80% by 2030. Among all metropolitan areas examined, the full transition may reduce 2050 annual energy costs by 61.1% (from $2.2 to $0.86 trillion/yr in 2013 USD) and social costs (energy plus air pollution plus climate costs) by 89.6% (from $8.3 to $0.86 trillion/yr). The large energy cost reduction is due to the 57.1% lower end-used energy requirements and the 9% lower cost per unit energy with WWS. The air pollution cost reduction of ~$2.6 (1.5–4.6) trillion/yr is due mostly to the saving of 408,000 (322,000–506,000) lives/yr with WWS. Global climate cost savings due to WWS are ~$3.5 (2.0–7.5) trillion/yr (2013 USD). The transition may also create ~1.4 million more long-term, full-time jobs than lost. Thus, moving to 100% clean, renewable energy and storage for all purposes in metropolitan areas can result in significant economic, health, climate, and job benefits.
Article
The power sector in China, which is the main CO2 emission contributor in the country, plays an essential role in achieving the 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Notably, there are scientific gaps regarding the decarbonization plan to achieve this goal and the future power supply structure. The objective of this study is to systematically explore and evaluate the feasibility of constructing a carbon-neutral power sector. Considering the power source potential, power supply characteristics, and advanced technologies, methodological steps were developed for the design and assessment of China's power sector. In particular, an evaluation indicator system was included to assess the decarbonization of the power sector and make it comparable in the international context. The results indicated that it is possible for the country's power sector to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, using available domestic energy resources. The total cost of the 100% non-fossil power sector was the lowest, accounting for 87.3% of that of the business-as-usual (BAU) power sector. Compared with the BAU power sector, the renewable power sectors had abatement costs of −0.12–0.43 kCNY/t. The negative abatement cost indicated that power sector decarbonization could be cost-effective in China. In the international context, the cost of electricity of the future China power sector (∼0.42 CNY/kWh) was comparable to that in other regions, while the CO2 abatement cost was lower than that in most regions. The proposed methodological steps can be beneficial for CO2 emissions reduction and energy structure conversion in the power sector of any region.
Preprint
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The ambitious energy target to achieve climate-neutrality in the European Union (EU) energy system raises the question of the feasibility of using only renewables across all energy sectors. Germany, as one of the leading industrialized countries of the EU, has adopted several climate action plans for the realistic implementation and maximum utilization of renewable energies in its future energy system. The literature review shows a clear gap in comprehensive techniques describing an open modeling approach for analyzing fully renewable and sector-coupled energy systems. This paper outlines an open modeling technique for analyzing the feasibility of the 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled energy system in Germany. It identifies the capacities and investment costs for different components and briefly evaluates the flexibility aspects of the system in terms of transmission grid expansion, energy storage, and dispatchable loads. Based on the open energy modeling framework (Oemof), an hourly optimization tool 'OSeEM-DE' is developed to investigate the German energy system. The model results show that a 100% renewable-based and sector-coupled system for electricity and building heat is feasible in Germany under different conditions. The investment capacities and component costs depend on the parametric variations of the developed scenarios. According to the model results, the annual investment costs vary between 17.6 – 26.6 bn €/yr for the volatile generators, and between 23.7 – 28.8 bn €/yr for the heat generators. Besides, the model suggests an investment of a minimum of 2.7 – 3.9 bn €/yr for electricity and heat storage. A comparison of the OSeEM-DE results with Fraunhofer ISE study reports shows that the percentage-wise energy mix composition and the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) from the model are within the plausible ranges. Finally, sensitivity analyses indicate that storage expansion and optimum grid extension between Northern and Southern Germany can maximize the provision of flexibility to the system and decrease the overall investment cost.
Article
Distributed energy systems are becoming increasingly popular worldwide. The 100% renewable energy system can be an important energy supply alternative to reduce the carbon emissions and address energy shortage, especially for remote areas. However, the performance of 100% renewable energy system (RES) at community level needs further detailed analysis, which is affected by the climates, availability of renewable energy and local energy markets. This paper proposes a design optimization framework of 100% renewable energy systems for low-density communities and investigates the system performance. To investigate the integration and performance of 100% RES, thirty typical cities located in different regions of China were chosen considering different climates, geographical features, and renewable energy distributions. By taking the economic performance as the optimization objective, the optimal design for the 100% RES is obtained, and the energy and economic performance is analyzed. Results show that, under the current energy market conditions, the 100% RES is feasible for low-density communities in most regions of China. The payback periods of the systems in most cities are less than six years. When the cost of PV is reduced by half considering future technological developments, the payback period of a 100% RES can be reduced by 30%–60%. This paper would provide design suggestions and application recommendations in regard to promoting 100% RES in China.
Article
Domestic hot water (DHW) heating is one of the most energy-consuming activities in a typical household. Photovoltaics (PV) connected with a ground source heat pump (GSHP) offers a low-emission method for DHW heating. This paper studies four different control methods for DHW heating in a building with a GSHP and a PV system. The main control method aims to minimize DHW heating costs by utilizing Nord Pool Spot market information together with a PV production output forecast. The results of this control method, implemented with a perfect PV output forecast and assessed over three years of hourly data, indicate that annual cost savings over other methods are achievable. Results with the real-world actual PV output forecast, evaluated between June–September 2020, demonstrate DHW heating cost savings up to 36–53%, even though forecasting errors are present. The heating costs are 9–11% higher compared against the perfect forecast case. The suggested control method thereby effectively reduces the costs when compared with all other methods, and its performance is not significantly affected even when an actual imperfect forecast is implemented. The results also indicate that minimizing energy consumption does not offer the lowest cost.
Article
Pacific island countries are particularly susceptible to sea level rise as a result of climate change and also face high costs and energy security issues from imported fossil fuels. As a result many Pacific island countries are perusing 100% renewable energy targets. Due to challenges with variable renewable energy sources, detailed studies that balance renewable energy supply and demand at a fine temporal scale have been carried out for many countries to inform policy directions. Despite having adopted renewable energy targets, most Pacific island countries have not been subject to the same level of detailed analysis in the academic literature. In addition, the results from other countries are not directly applicable given the particular local resources, climatic conditions and economic situation of Pacific island countries. In this paper, focusing on the case of Samoa, we use an approach based on historical electricity demand and generation time-series data to investigate future scenarios that achieve very high percentages of renewable electricity. The results show that scenarios of high proportions (above 90%) of renewable energy generation coupled with storage (28%–37% of direct solar, 17%–30% of stored solar and 25%–40% of hydro) are economically viable (Net Present Value >0) but, there is a significant trade-off between percentage of renewable supply and affordability. These results have important implications for energy policy directions for Samoa and are directly applicable to many other countries in the Pacific.
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Deep decarbonisation – i.e. the transition towards net-zero emissions energy systems – will be enabled by a high penetration of intermittent renewables, storage and sector-coupling technologies. In this paper, we present a novel modelling approach to capture the increasing complexity of such future energy systems and help policy makers choose among the different possible transition scenarios. Salient features of our model, consisting of an extended and regionalised version of EnergyScope (Limpens et al., 2019 [1]), are a low computational time and a concise formulation which make it suitable for uncertainty and what-if analyses. As a case study, the model is applied to devise scenarios for the Italian energy transition. Specifically, we develop the first open-source whole-energy system model of Italy and assess the feasibility of its decarbonisation strategy with respect to uncertainties in the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewable technologies. Results show that emissions can be cut by 79%–97% vs. 1990 levels thanks to a radical electrification of the energy system coupled to a wide deployment of renewables and efficient energy conversion technologies. Finally, we discuss the synergies, advantages and disadvantages of our proposed approach with respect to alternative modelling approaches used across 88 recent deep decarbonisation studies. The analysis suggests that our model, thanks to its computational efficiency and a snapshot approach (i.e., modelling a target-year in the future), can complement more detailed and established energy models optimising the energy transition pathway (i.e., modelling the pathway from today to the target year).
Thesis
(In English Below) Obtener un sistema energético que contribuya a asegurar la estabilidad climática del planeta es uno de los desafíos más importantes de la primera mitad del siglo XXI. Con el propósito de contribuir en la búsqueda de vías que permitan superar la crisis climática global, pero desde acciones locales, y apelando a que la tecnología fotovoltaica (FV) cuenta con excelentes características para habilitar la transición energética que se necesita, esta tesis doctoral tiene como principal objetivo analizar, desde un enfoque global y local, el rol que la energía solar FV descentralizada podría jugar en la transición energética sostenible de un país y territorio específico. Para esto, se emplea como caso de estudio a Chile y particularmente, una de las regiones que lo conforma: la región de Aysén. Tanto Chile como la región de Aysén tienen aspectos que son un reflejo de la crisis global del Antropoceno, pero también cuentan con una gran oportunidad para implementar soluciones ejemplares basadas en sus enormes potenciales de energía renovable (ER). Para realizar dicho análisis se han considerado todos los sectores consumidores de energía y se utilizó una herramienta desarrollada por la Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), con la que se modelaron escenarios de transición energética hacia un sistema 100 % basado en ER para Chile, desde un enfoque global y local, donde, en el enfoque local se incluyó a la región de Aysén. Los resultados revelan que, tanto en Chile como en la región de Aysén, lograr un sistema energético 100% renovable para el año 2050 es técnicamente factible y económicamente viable. En ese año, dependiendo del enfoque y escala territorial, la contribución a la generación eléctrica por parte de la tecnología FV en su conjunto varía entre 39–86 % y, la contribución de la FV descentralizada varía entre 9–12 %; no obstante, la FV descentralizada aporta entre un 27–52 % de la electricidad final que es mayormente consumida en las ciudades por los sectores eléctrico, térmico y transporte. A su vez, la energía solar FV descentralizada crearía en Chile entre el 9–15 % de los empleos anuales directos durante el periodo de transición. Es decir, entre los años 2020 y 2050, el sector de la FV descentralizada crearía 174.274 empleos directos. Además, los resultados también revelan que Chile puede alcanzar la neutralidad en emisiones de carbono en el año 2030 y, se puede convertir en un país emisor negativo de gases de efecto invernadero a partir del año 2035. Todo esto sería posible utilizando menos del 10 % del potencial tecno-económico de ER disponible en este país. Tras los resultados del trabajo de investigación realizado en esta tesis doctoral, se concluye que la energía solar FV es un elemento vital en la transición energética sostenible, así como también, alcanzar un sistema energético totalmente desfosilizado es más importante que lograr la neutralidad en las emisiones de carbono. Esto último se debe a que una transición a nivel país hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable implicaría beneficios socio-ambientales y socioeconómicos locales, con impactos globales positivos que se necesitan con urgencia. Si Chile implementara una vía de transición hacia un sistema energético 100 % renovable, no solo podría convertirse en un caso ejemplar en el avance hacia una economía post-combustibles fósiles, si no que también podría contribuir a la transición energética global: a través de la extracción limpia de materias primas clave (como lo son el cobre y el litio), y a través de la producción de combustibles y químicos basados en ER. En resumen, la tecnología FV puede contribuir en la mitigación del cambio climático y la reducción de los niveles de contaminación del aire en las ciudades, al tiempo que impulsa el crecimiento económico local; todo esto, de una manera más descentralizada y participativa. ///////////////////////////////////////// Obtaining an energy system that will help to ensure the climactic stability of the planet is one of the most important challenges of the first half of the 21st century. In order to contribute to the search for ways to overcome the global climate crisis, from local activities, and appealing to the fact that photovoltaic (PV) technology has excellent characteristics which could enable the energy transition that is needed, this doctoral thesis has as its main objective the analysis, from a global and local approach, the role that decentralized solar PV could play in the sustainable energy transition of a specific country and territory. For this purpose, Chile and one of its regions (the Aysén region) are used as a case study. Both Chile and the Aysén region have aspects that reflect the global crisis of the Anthropocene, but they also present a great opportunity to implement exemplary solutions, based on their enormous renewable energy (RE) potentials. To carry out this analysis, all energy-consuming sectors were considered. A tool developed by the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) was used, with which energy transition scenarios were modelled towards a 100% RE-based system for Chile, from a global and local approach. The Aysén region was included in the local approach. The results reveal that, both in Chile and in the Aysén region, achieving a 100% RE system by 2050 is technically feasible and economically viable. In that year, depending on the approach and territorial scale, the contribution to electricity generation by PV technology as a whole would vary between 39–86%. The contribution of decentralized PV would be between 9–12%. However, decentralized PV would contribute 27–52% of the final electricity that is mostly consumed in cities by the power, heat and transport sectors. In turn, decentralized solar PV would create between 9–15% of annual direct jobs in Chile during the transition period. In other words, between 2020 and 2050, the decentralized PV sector would create 174,274 direct jobs. In addition, the results also reveal that Chile could achieve carbon neutrality in 2030 and could become a negative greenhouse gas emitter by 2035. All of this would be possible by using less than 10% of the techno-economic potential of RE available in this country. From the results of the research work carried out in this doctoral thesis, it is concluded that solar PV is a vital element in the sustainable energy transition. We also find that achieving a fully defossilized energy system is more important than achieving carbon neutrality. The latter is due to the fact that a transition at the country level towards a 100% RE system would imply local socio-environmental and socio-economic benefits, with positive urgently needed global impacts. If Chile implements a transition path towards a 100% RE system, it could not only become an exemplary case in moving towards a post-fossil fuel economy, but could also contribute to the global energy transition through the clean extraction of key raw materials (such as copper and lithium), and through the production of RE-based fuels and chemicals. In summary, PV technology can contribute to mitigating climate change and reducing air pollution levels in cities, while boosting local economic growth, doing all of this in a more decentralized and participatory way.
Article
District heating is of great significance for the Nordic countries due to the high heat demand. The Finnish government has set a national target of carbon neutrality in 2035. This implies a huge challenge and rapid system change. The Helsinki metropolitan area consists of Helsinki, Espoo and Vantaa, and in each city a different district heating company operates, and the technologies planned for decarbonization are different. This research aims to analyze these strategies with respect to carbon dioxide emissions and production costs, assuming different future European Union emissions carbon trading prices. The software EnergyPRO is used to provide least-cost optimal district heating operation solutions. From 2010 to 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the Helsinki metropolitan area district heating will decrease by about 4.2 million tonnes. However, the average heat production costs are expected to increase considerably by almost threefold; while heat trade between the cities will reinforce the feasibility and decreases the system operation costs and total emissions. Helsinki will import heat, especially from Vantaa waste incineration plants. Higher carbon dioxide prices would reduce the total emissions, increase the total district heating operation costs, and lower the heat imported to Helsinki. As all the cities plan biomass as an alternative to fossil fuels, a higher biomass price would limit its consumption but increase natural gas usage the carbon dioxide emissions. In the future, combined heat and power plants will be used significantly less, leading to lost income on electricity sales and profoundly changing the business of the district heating companies.
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While the share of peat in Finland's energy mix today amounts to only around 4%, peat recurrently returns to the center stage in Finnish energy-related public debates. As an indigenous energy resource, peat is a welcome addition to the energy mix of the heavily energy-dependent country. In addition, the employment impacts of peat production are considered significant. These benefits are, however, contradicted by the environmental impacts and climate emissions caused by peat energy. The conflicting interests revolving around peat have resulted in constantly shifting national peat policies as well as infrequent “explosions” of public and political debates on peat production. This article explores two of the most recent politicizations of peat through an empirical focus on the short-lived promotion campaigns that sparked widespread public debate: the 2010 “2 prosenttia” [2%] internet campaign from the state-majority-owned energy company VAPO and the 2017 “Turveinfo” [peat info] campaign launched by The Bioenergy Association of Finland. Through an analysis of the colorful and provocative promotion campaigns, this article (1) explores the arguments and rhetoric through which political support of peat is being acquired from the Finnish public and (2) examines what crises in the 2010s Finland peat is constructed as the (only) logical answer for.
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We summarize the results of a recent statistical analysis of 216 nuclear energy accidents and incidents (events). The dataset is twice as large as the previous best available. We employ cost in US dollars as a severity measure to facilitate the comparison of different types and sizes of events, a method more complete and consistent that the industry-standard approach. Despite significant reforms following past disasters, we estimate that, with 388 reactors in operation, there is a 50% chance that a Fukushima event (or more costly) occurs every 60–150 years. We also find that the average cost of events per year is around the cost of the construction of a new plant. This dire outlook necessitates post-Fukushima reforms that will truly minimize extreme nuclear power risks. Nuclear power accidents are decreasing in frequency, but increasing in severity.
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This paper outlines how an existing energy system can be transformed into a 100% renewable energy system. The transition is divided into a number of key stages which reflect key radical technological changes on the supply side of the energy system. Ireland is used as a case study,but in reality this reflects many typical energy systems today which use power plants for electricity, individual boilers for heat, and oil for transport. The seven stages analysed are 1) reference, 2) introduction of district heating, 3) installation of small and large-scale heat pumps,4) reducing grid regulation requirements, 5) adding flexible electricity demands and electric vehicles, 6) producing synthetic methanol/DME for transport, and finally 7) using synthetic gas to replace the remaining fossil fuels. For each stage, the technical and economic performance of the energy system is calculated. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system can provide the same end-user energy demands as today’s energy system and at the same price. Electricity will be the backbone of the energy system, but the flexibility in today’s electricity sector will be transferred from the supply side of the demand side in the future. Similarly, due to changes in the type of spending required in a 100% renewable energy system, this scenario will result in the creation of 100,000 additional jobs in Ireland compared to an energy system like today’s. These results are significant since they indicate that the transition to a 100% renewable energy system can begin today, without increasing the cost of energy in the short- or long-term, if the costs currently forecasted for 2050 become a reality.
Technical Report
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Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying material- and energyflows and their associated impacts in the life cycles of products (i.e., goods and services). One of the major goals of IEA PVPS Task 12 is to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, transparency and quality of LCA to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results. The current report presents the latest consensus LCA results among the authors, PV LCA experts in North America, Europe and Asia. At this time consensus is limited to five technologies for which there are well-established and up-to-date LCI data: mono- and multi-crystalline Si, CdTe CIGS, and high concentration PV (HCPV) using III/V cells. The LCA indicators shown herein include Energy Payback Times (EPBT), Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG), criteria pollutant emissions, and heavy metal emissions. Life Cycle Inventories (LCIs) are necessary for LCA and the availability of such data is often the greatest barrier for conducting LCA. The Task 12 LCA experts have put great efforts in gathering and compiling the LCI data presented in this report. These include detailed inputs and outputs during manufacturing of cell, wafer, module, and balance-of-system (i.e., structural- and electrical- components) that were estimated from actual production and operation facilities. In addition to the LCI data that support the LCA results presented herein, data are presented to enable analyses of various types of PV installations; these include operational data of rooftop and ground-mount PV systems and country-specific PV-mixes. The LCI datasets presented in this report are the latest that are available to the public describing the status in 2011 for crystalline Si, 2010-2011 for CdTe, 2010 for CIGS, and 2010 for HCPV technology. This report provides an update of the life cycle inventory data in Section 5 of the previous report: V. Fthenakis, H. C. Kim, R. Frischknecht, M. Raugei, P. Sinha, M. Stucki , 2011, Life Cycle Inventories and Life Cycle Assessment of Photovoltaic Systems, International Energy Agency(IEA) PVPS Task 12, Report T12-02:2011. Updates are provided for the crystalline silicon PV global supply chain (Section 5.1), thin film PV module manufacturing (Sections 5.2-5.3), PV mounting structures (Section 5.5), and country-specific electricity grid mixes (Section 5.9). Other sections of this report are the same as in the previous report. Electronic versions of the updated tables in Section 5 are available at IEA PVPS (http://www.iea-pvps.org; select Task 12 under Archive) and treeze Ltd (http://treeze.ch; under Publications).
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Background There is much uncertainty about the risks of leukaemia and lymphoma after repeated or protracted low-dose radiation exposure typical of occupational, environmental, and diagnostic medical settings. We quantified associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposures and leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma mortality among radiation-monitored adults employed in France, the UK, and the USA. Methods We assembled a cohort of 308 297 radiation-monitored workers employed for at least 1 year by the Atomic Energy Commission, AREVA Nuclear Cycle, or the National Electricity Company in France, the Departments of Energy and Defence in the USA, and nuclear industry employers included in the National Registry for Radiation Workers in the UK. The cohort was followed up for a total of 8·22 million person-years. We ascertained deaths caused by leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. We used Poisson regression to quantify associations between estimated red bone marrow absorbed dose and leukaemia and lymphoma mortality. Findings Doses were accrued at very low rates (mean 1·1 mGy per year, SD 2·6). The excess relative risk of leukaemia mortality (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia) was 2·96 per Gy (90% CI 1·17–5·21; lagged 2 years), most notably because of an association between radiation dose and mortality from chronic myeloid leukaemia (excess relative risk per Gy 10·45, 90% CI 4·48–19·65). Interpretation This study provides strong evidence of positive associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposure and leukaemia.
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We provide, and perform a risk theoretic statistical analysis of, a dataset that is 75 percent larger than the previous best dataset on nuclear incidents and accidents, comparing three measures of severity: INES (International Nuclear Event Scale), radiation released, and damage dollar losses. The annual rate of nuclear accidents, with size above 20 Million US$, per plant, decreased from the 1950s until dropping significantly after Chernobyl (April, 1986). The rate is now roughly stable at 0.002 to 0.003, i.e., around 1 event per year across the current fleet. The distribution of damage values changed after Three Mile Island (TMI; March, 1979), where moderate damages were suppressed but the tail became very heavy, being described by a Pareto distribution with tail index 0.55. Further, there is a runaway disaster regime, associated with the "dragon-king" phenomenon, amplifying the risk of extreme damage. In fact, the damage of the largest event (Fukushima; March, 2011) is equal to 60 percent of the total damage of all 174 accidents in our database since 1946. In dollar losses we compute a 50% chance that (i) a Fukushima event (or larger) occurs in the next 50 years, (ii) a Chernobyl event (or larger) occurs in the next 27 years and (iii) a TMI event (or larger) occurs in the next 10 years. Finally, we find that the INES scale is inconsistent. To be consistent with damage, the Fukushima disaster would need to have an INES level of 11, rather than the maximum of 7.
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To properly evaluate the prospects for commercially competitive battery electric vehicles (BEV) one must have accurate information on current and predicted cost of battery packs. The literature reveals that costs are coming down, but with large uncertainties on past, current and future costs of the dominating Li-ion technology. This paper presents an original systematic review, analysing over 80 different estimates reported 2007-2014 to systematically trace the costs of Li-ion battery packs for BEV manufacturers. We show that industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US$1,000 per kWh to around US$410 per kWh, and that the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh, and has declined by 8% annually. Learning rate, the cost reduction following a cumulative doubling of production, is found to be between 6 and 9%, in line with earlier studies on vehicle battery technology. We reveal that the costs of Li-ion battery packs continue to decline and that the costs among market leaders are much lower than previously reported. This has significant implications for the assumptions used when modelling future energy and transport systems and permits an optimistic outlook for BEVs contributing to low-carbon transport.
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Towards low-carbon energy systems, there are countries with ongoing plans for expanding their nuclear power capacity, and simultaneously advancing the role of variable renewable energy sources (RES), namely wind and solar energy. This crossroads of capital-intensive, baseload power production and uncontrollable, intermittent RES may entail new challenges in the optimal and economic operation of power systems. This study examines this case by hourly analysis of a national-level energy system with the EnergyPLAN modeling tool, coupled with wind integration simulations (including uncertainty) implemented using MATLAB. We evaluate the maximum feasible wind integration under different scenarios for nuclear power plants, energy demand, and the flexibility of energy infrastructure for a real case study (Finland). We propose wind-nuclear compromise charts to envision the impact of any mix of these two technologies on four parameters: total costs, power exchange, carbon emissions, and renewable energy integration. The results suggest that nuclear power constrains the room for maximum uptake of wind energy by a descending parabolic relationship. If nuclear power production exceeds 50% of the total power demand, wind will be unlikely to penetrate in shares over 15% of the respective demand. Moreover, we investigate the role of four flexibility options: demand side management, electrical energy storage, smart electric heating, and large-scale heat pumps (backed with thermal energy storage). Heat pumps (which are in connection with combined heat and power (CHP) and district heating systems) offer the highest efficiency in balancing excess power from variable RES. However, power-to-heat options offer a limited capability for absorbing excess power, as oversupply arises mainly in the periods with relatively low demand for heat. This calls for longer-term energy storage and/or other flexibility options to achieve the planned targets in wind-nuclear scenarios.
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A primary endeavor of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to synthesize and analyze data that is useful to the renewable energy industry on a global scale [1]. One goal of POWER is to provide data to the renewable energy industry in quantities and terms compatible with this industries design and engineering tools and for locations where ground site data is not readily available. The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set and web site have been a valuable resource for a growing user community involved in renewable energy. The POWER project continues to improve upon information available via the SSE web site. This paper describes the availability of higher spatial resolution assimilated data in a new release of SSE (i.e. SSE 6.0) that extends the period of coverage to 22 years.
Thesis
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Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) is a thermochemical process used in the production of charred matter similar in composition to coal. It involves the use of wet, carbohydrate feedstock, a relatively low temperature environment (180 °C-350 °C) and high autogenous pressure (up to 2.4 MPa) in a closed system. Various applications of the solid char product exist, opening the way for a range of biomass feedstock materials to be exploited that have so far proven to be troublesome due to high water content or other factors. Sludge materials are investigated as candidates for industrial-scale HTC treatment in fuel production. In general, HTC treatment of pulp and paper industry sludge (PPS) and anaerobically digested municipal sewage sludge (ADS) using existing technology is competitive with traditional treatment options, which range in price from EUR 30-80 per ton of wet sludge. PPS and ADS can be treated by HTC for less than EUR 13 and 33, respectively. Opportunities and challenges related to HTC exist, as this relatively new technology moves from laboratory and pilot-scale production to an industrial scale. Feedstock materials, end-products, process conditions and local markets ultimately determine the feasibility of a given HTC operation. However, there is potential for sludge materials to be converted to sustainable bio-coal fuel in a Finnish context.
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The increasing amount of power generation from weather-dependent renewable sources in Germany is projected to lead to a considerable number of hours in which power generation exceeds power demand. One possibility to take advantage of this power surplus is through the Power-to-Heat technology. As combined heat and power (CHP)-plants can be upgraded relatively easily with a Power-to-Heat facility, a huge potential can be developed in German district heating grids which are mainly served by CHP-plants. In this paper the potential of the Power-to-Heat technology in district heating grids in Germany is evaluated for the years 2015 to 2030 under different assumptions.
Thesis
As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
Article
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Article
The energy demand of photovoltaic (PV) systems is an important part of energy sustainability of PV systems. PV systems are considered sustainable energy systems when the produced energy is higher than the energy needed for the PV system on a life-cycle basis. This paper employs financial learning curve concepts to determine the energy demand of major PV module technologies and systems. General PV module and PV system energy learning curves are calculated by weighting energy demand of different PV systems according to their share in PV market. Additionally, the contribution of module efficiency for reducing specific energy demand is considered. We find an energy learning rate of 17% for PV modules and 14% for PV systems on the basis of a market weighted mix of technologies and volumes. Energy payback time (EPBT) and energy return on energy investment (EROI) in 2010 and for the year 2020 are calculated via the energy learning rate and indicates a further significant progress in energetic productivity of PV systems. To the knowledge of the authors this publication shows for the first time that the energy consumption in PV manufacturing follows the log-linear learning curve law similar to the evolution of production cost. This allows calculating EPBT or EROI for future prognoses. Furthermore, it shows significant evidence of how sustainable PV systems are and justifies their growing share in the energy market.
Conference Paper
Integrating high shares of renewable energy (RE) sources in future energy systems requires a variety of storage solutions and flexibility measures. In this work, a 100% RE scenario was developed for Finland in 2050 for all energy sectors using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool to find a least-cost system configuration that suited the national context. Hourly data was analysed to determine the roles of various energy storage solutions, including stationary batteries, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) connections, thermal energy storage and grid gas storage for Power-toGas (PtG) technologies. V2G storage and stationary batteries facilitated use of high shares of variable RE on a daily and weekly basis. Thermal energy storage and synthetic grid gas storage aided in resolving seasonality issues related to variable RE generation plus facilitated efficient use of other forms of RE, such as biomass, and Combined Heat and Power to maintain the reliability and independence of the energy system throughout the year. In this scenario, 30 GWp of installed solar PV, 35 GWe of onshore wind power and 5 GWe of offshore wind power are supported by 20 GWh of stationary Lithium-ion batteries, 150 GWh of V2G storage (Li-ion), 20 GWhth of thermal energy storage, and 3800 GWhth of grid gas storage. Discharge of electricity and heat from storage represented 15% of end-user demand. Thermal storage discharge was 4% of end-user heat demand. In the power sector, 21% of end-user demand was satisfied by electricity storage discharge, the majority of this (87%) coming from V2G connections. Grid gas storage discharge represented 26% of gas demand. These observations suggest that storage solutions will be an important part of a 100% renewable Finnish energy system.
Article
This paper investigates the causality among economic growth, renewable energy consumption, capital and labor for new EU member countries for the period of 1990–2009, by using asymmetric causality test approach and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical results support that renewable energy consumption has positive impacts on economic growth for all investigated countries. But only for Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland, and Slovenia there is statistically significant impact on economic growth has found. And also supports neutrality hypothesis for Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia while the conservation hypothesis is present for Czech Republic. The fact that there is a causal relationship from economic growth to renewable energy consumption and the growth hypothesis is supported for Bulgaria, referring to causality from energy consumption to economic growth.
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A district energy system, especially one employing a large heat storage facility, may be able to tap energy sources that would not otherwise be suitable owing to irregular occurrence or difficulty in transporting the energy to demand centres. To be viable as thermal energy for buildings, sources such as geothermal, solar, and nuclear energy (which is likely to be available in off-peak electrical demand periods) all require at least one of the following: an extensive network for distribution of the energy, large-scale demand applications, or large off-peak storage capacity. These requirements have hindered the use of these sources in individual buildings, but they are compatible with a district energy system. -from Author.
Article
The aim of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption, CO2 emissions, renewable energy and real GDP per capita using dynamic panel for nine developed countries over the period 1990–2013. Capital and labor are included as additional variables. Results shown that there is a unidirectional causality running from renewable energy consumption to real GDP per capita for the whole panel at short run; this implies that policies for reducing energy consumption may not retard economic growth and income. However, there is no links between nuclear energy consumption and real GDP per capita, but a unidirectional causality from nuclear energy consumption to labor. Moreover, a bidirectional causality between labor and capital, and between CO2 emissions and capital are found. In addition, there is a unidirectional causal relationship from labor to CO2 emissions, while among other variables no causal relationship is found. In the long run, there exists also a bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and real GDP per capita, which complain that renewable energy is a crucial component for economic growth. In addition, results revealed a unidirectional causality from GDP to CO2 emissions.
Presentation
Presentation at the LUT Doctorial School Conference in Lappeenranta at December 10, 2015.
Conference Paper
Photovoltaics (PV) is expected to become one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation during the next decades. The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of PV has already reached grid parity with retail electricity in many markets and is approaching wholesale parity in some countries. In this paper, it is estimated that the PV LCOE in main European markets is going to decrease from 2015 to 2030 by about 45% and to 2050 by about 60%. The LCOE for utility-scale PV in Europe will be about 25-45 €/MWh in 2030 and about 15-30 €/MWh in 2050 depending on the location. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the most important parameter together with the annual irradiation in the calculation of the PV LCOE. The uncertainty in capital and operational expenditure (CAPEX and OPEX) is relatively less important while the system lifetime and degradation have only a minor effect. The work for this paper has been carried out under the framework of the EU PV Technology Platform.
Conference Paper
There are several barriers to achieving an energy system based entirely on renewable energy (RE), not the least of which is doubt that high capacities of solar PV can be feasible due to long, cold and dark Finnish winters. Technologically, several energy storage options can facilitate high penetrations of solar PV (up to 29 TWhe, or 16% of annual electricity production) and other variable forms of RE. These options include electric and thermal storage systems in addition to a robust role of Power-toGas (PtG) technology. Approximately 45% of electricity produced from solar PV was used directly over the course of the year, which shows the relevance of storage. In terms of public policy, several mechanisms are available to promote various forms of RE. However, many of these are contested in Finland by actors with vested interests in maintaining the status quo rather than by those without faith in RE conversion or storage technologies. These vested interests must be overcome before a zero fossil carbon future can begin.
Article
In this paper we examine the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth across the G7 countries, using annual data for the period of 1990-2011. By employing the causality methodology proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) [8], we investigate if there is a causal relationship between the variables. The advantage of this methodology is that it takes into account possible slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency in a multivariate panel. The empirical results support the existence of a bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and renewable energy for the overall panel. However, looking at the individual results for each country, the neutrality hypothesis is confirmed for Canada, Italy and the US; while for France and UK there is a unidirectional causality from GDP to renewable energy, and the opposite for Germany and Japan.
Article
A clear consensus exists in German society that renewable energy resources have to play a dominant role in the future German energy supply system. However, many questions are still under discussion; for instance the relevance of the different technologies such as photovoltaic systems and wind energy converters installed offshore in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Concerns also exist about the cost of a future energy system mainly based on renewable energy. In the work presented here we tried to answer some of those questions. Guiding questions for this study were: (1) is it possible to meet the German energy demand with 100% renewable energy, considering the available technical potential of the main renewable energy resources? (2) what is the overall annual cost of such an energy system once it has been implemented? (3) what is the best combination of renewable energy converters, storage units, energy converters and energy-saving measures? In order to answer these questions, we carried out many simulation calculations using REMod-D, a model we developed for this purpose. This model is described in Part I of this publication. To date this model covers only part of the energy system, namely the electricity and heat sectors, which correspond to about 62% of Germany's current energy demand. The main findings of our work indicate that it is possible to meet the total electricity and heat demand (space heating, hot water) of the entire building sector with 100% renewable energy within the given technical limits. This is based on the assumption that the heat demand of the building sector is significantly reduced by at least 60% or more compared to today's demand. Another major result of our analysis shows that - once the transformation of the energy system has been completed - supplying electricity and heat only from renewables is no more expensive than the existing energy supply.
Article
Power-to-gas (PtG) technology has received considerable attention in recent years. However, it has been rather difficult to find profitable business models and niche markets so far. PtG systems can be applied in a broad variety of input and output conditions, mainly determined by prices for electricity, hydrogen, oxygen, heat, natural gas, bio-methane, fossil CO2 emissions, bio-CO2 and grid services, but also full load hours and industrial scaling. Optimized business models are based on an integrated value chain approach for a most beneficial combination of input and output parameters. The financial success is evaluated by a standard annualized profit and loss calculation and a subsequent return on equity consideration. Two cases of PtG integration into an existing pulp mill as well as a nearby bio-diesel plant are taken into account. Commercially available PtG technology is found to be profitable in case of a flexible operation mode offering electricity grid services. Next generation technology, available at the end of the 2010s, in combination with renewables certificates for the transportation sector could generate a return on equity of up to 100% for optimized conditions in an integrated value chain approach. This outstanding high profitability clearly indicates the potential for major PtG markets to be developed rather in the transportation sector and chemical industry than in the electricity sector as seasonal storage option as often proposed.
Article
Further development of the North-East Asian energy system is at a crossroads due to severe limitations of the current conventional energy based system. For North-East Asia it is proposed that the excellent solar and wind resources of the Gobi desert could enable the transformation towards a 100% renewable energy system. An hourly resolved model describes an energy system for North-East Asia, subdivided into 14 regions interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grids. Simulations are made for highly centralized, decentralized and countrywide grids scenarios. The results for total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are 0.065 and 0.081 €/(kW&h) for the centralized and decentralized approaches for 2030 assumptions. The presented results for 100% renewable resources-based energy systems are lower in LCOE by about 30–40% than recent findings in Europe for conventional alternatives. This research clearly indicates that a 100% renewable resources based energy system is THE real policy option.
Article
The paper reviews different approaches, technologies, and strategies to manage large-scale schemes of variable renewable electricity such as solar and wind power. We consider both supply and demand side measures. In addition to presenting energy system flexibility measures, their importance to renewable electricity is discussed. The flexibility measures available range from traditional ones such as grid extension or pumped hydro storage to more advanced strategies such as demand side management and demand side linked approaches, e.g. the use of electric vehicles for storing excess electricity, but also providing grid support services. Advanced batteries may offer new solutions in the future, though the high costs associated with batteries may restrict their use to smaller scale applications. Different “P2Y”-type of strategies, where P stands for surplus renewable power and Y for the energy form or energy service to which this excess in converted to, e.g. thermal energy, hydrogen, gas or mobility are receiving much attention as potential flexibility solutions, making use of the energy system as a whole. To “functionalize” or to assess the value of the various energy system flexibility measures, these need often be put into an electricity/energy market or utility service context. Summarizing, the outlook for managing large amounts of RE power in terms of options available seems to be promising.
Book
Mit der vorliegenden Studie wird die (fiktive) Pr¨ amie einer Haftpflichtversicherung f¨ ur den Schaden- fall, der aus einem nuklearen Katastrophenfall auf der Grundlage eines Kernkraftwerk-St¨ or- oder Unfalls resultiert, ermittelt. Grundlage stellen bereits ver¨ offentlichte Studien zur Eintrittswahr- scheinlichkeit und zur m¨ oglichen Schadenh¨ ohe dar. Die Autoren beziehen dar¨ uber hinaus eigene getroffene Annahmen und daraus resultierende Bewertungen hinsichtlich dieser beiden Faktoren zur Bestimmung eines Risikos in die Berechnungen ein.
Article
Finland is to increase the share of RES (renewable energy sources) up to 38% in final energy consumption by 2020. While benefiting from local biomass resources Finnish energy system is deemed to achieve this goal, increasing the share of other intermittent renewables is under development, namely wind power and solar energy. Yet the maximum flexibility of the existing energy system in integration of renewable energy is not investigated, which is an important step before undertaking new renewable energy obligations. This study aims at filling this gap by hourly analysis and comprehensive modeling of the energy system including electricity, heat, and transportation, by employing EnergyPLAN tool. Focusing on technical and economic implications, we assess the maximum potential of different RESs separately (including bioenergy, hydropower, wind power, solar heating and PV, and heat pumps), as well as an optimal mix of different technologies. Furthermore, we propose a new index for assessing the maximum flexibility of energy systems in absorbing variable renewable energy. The results demonstrate that wind energy can be harvested at maximum levels of 18-19% of annual power demand (approx. 16 TWh/a), without major enhancements in the flexibility of energy infrastructure. With today's energy demand, the maximum feasible renewable energy for Finland is around 44-50% by an optimal mix of different technologies, which promises 35% reduction in carbon emissions from 2012's level. Moreover, Finnish energy system is flexible to augment the share of renewables in gross electricity consumption up to 69-72%, at maximum. Higher shares of RES calls for lower energy consumption (energy efficiency) and more flexibility in balancing energy supply and consumption (e.g. by energy storage).
Conference Paper
The excellent solar resources of Israel make it possible to reach the target of 100% RE, independent of fossil fuel supply in a rather close future. For now the development of large PV capacities is restrained by battery storage costs: before reaching a cost level of 200 €/kWh, batteries are not competitive and installations of thermal storages and CSP are cost optimal. The role of CSP remains unclear; however, the high competitiveness of PV-battery may limit CSP to a minor role. PV self-consumption plays a significant role in the energy transformation in Israel.
Article
Increasing demand for energy worldwide, driven largely by the developing world, coupled with the tremendous hidden costs associated with traditional energy sources necessitates an unprecedented fraction of the future global energy mix come from sustainable, renewable sources. The potential solar energy resource dwarfs that of all other renewable sources combined, yet only two photovoltaic technologies are known to have the potential to be scaled up to make dramatic impact on the overall energy mix: silicon and organic photovoltaics. In this paper, we present the long-term sustainability advantages of organics when compared to silicon and other photovoltaic technologies in terms of energy payback time and global warming potential while also discussing the outlook for transitional applications of organic solar cells.