The observed Antarctic Peninsula warming during the 20th century in the AOGCMs and the 21st century projections for the region

Abstract

The most rapid warming on the Earth during the second half of the 20th century was recorded in the Antarctic Peninsula region. Data set of 2-m temperature at the Ukrainian Antarctic Station “Academik Vernadsky” (British station “Faraday” before 1996) is used to demonstrate the ability of modern AOGCMs to represent the recent warming in the region where simulation of numerical models are not too much accurate.

The methodology was as follows. A set of AOGCMs with the highest complexity and resolution presented in the IPCC AR-4 (2007) were chosen. Model runs for the control 20th century (20c3m) experiments and three SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, F2) were used in the study. If a model had more than one run, an ensemble mean was obtained for such models. Monthly surface temperature in four grid points 2x2 centred over the “Acad. Vernadsky” station with coordinates 64.16W, 65.16S were selected and averaged for every model from the global data. Obtained time-series of yearly temperatures for some of AOGCMs along with the measured data at the “Acad.Vernadsky” station are presented at the Figure.

Analysis has shown that in most AOGCMs 2-m yearly temperature is lower than measured one on 2–5oC. Just MPI-ECHAM5/OM is very close to the observations for temperature. At the same time most of the AOGCMs (except UKMO-HADGEM1) have captured rapid warming during 1950-2000 period and their linear trend coefficients are close to the observed one. The 21st century projections of selected AOGCMs for three SRES scenarios were analysed too and will be presented.

Full text

The observed Antarctic Peninsula warming
during the 20th century in the AOGCMs
and the 21st century projections for the region
S.V. Krakovska*, G.A. Djukel
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Ukraine
KraSvit@ua.fm

Objective:
•To demonstrate the ability of modern AOGCMs to represent
the recent warming in the Antarctic Peninsula region where
simulations of numerical models are not too much accurate.
•To analyze climate projection for the region at the different
scenarios for the XXI century.
Methodology:
•A set of 10 AOGCMs with the highest complexity and
resolution presented in the IPCC AR-4 (2007) were chosen.
•Model runs for the control 20th century (20c3m) experiments
and three SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, F2) were used in the
study. If a model had more than one run, an ensemble mean
was obtained for such models.
•Yearly mean surface temperatures in four grid points 2x2
centered over the “Akad.Vernadsky” station were selected
and averaged for every model. Then ensemble mean of all
models was obtained and compared with observation data.

Ukrainian Antarctic Station
Akademik Vernadsky
(65 15S, 64 16W)

Model ID,
Vintage Sponsor,
country Atmosph.
Top,resol. Number
of expe-
rim. В1-
А1В-А2
1: BCCR-
BCM2.0,
2005
Bjerknes Centre
for Climate
Research,
Norway
top = 25 hPa
T63 (1.9°x1.9°)
L16
1-1-1
2: NCAR-
CCSM3,
2005
National Center
for Atmospheric
Research, USA
top = 2.2 hPa
T85 (1.4°x1.4°)
L26
9-7-4
3:CGCM3.1
(T47), 2005 Canadian Centre
for Climate
Modelling and
Analysis, Canada
top = 1 hPa
T47 (2.8°x2.8°)
L31
5-5-5
4:CGCM3.1
(T63), 2005 Canadian Centre
for Climate
Modelling and
Analysis, Canada
top = 1 hPa
T63 (1.9°x1.9°)
L31
1-1-0
5: ECHAM5
/ MPI-OM,
2005
Max Planck
Institute for
Meteorology,
Germany
top = 10 hPa
T63 (1.9°x1.9°)
L31
5-4-3

Model ID,
Vintage Sponsor, country Atmosph.
Top,resol. Number
of expe-
rim. В1-
А1В-А2
6: GFDL-
CM2.1,
2005
U.S. Department of
Commerce / NOAA
/ GFDL, USA
top = 3 hPa
2.0° x 2.5° L24 1-1-1
7: MIROC
3.2 (hires),
2004
Center for Climate
System Research,
National Institute for
Environmental
Studies, JAMSTEC,
Japan
top = 40 km
T106 (1.1°x1.1°)
L56
1-1-0
8: MIROC
3.2(medres),
2004
JAMSTEC, Japan top = 30 km
T42 (2.8°x2.8°)
L20
3-3-3
9: MRI-
CGCM2.3.2,
2003
Meteorological
Research Institute,
Japan
top = 0.4 hPa
T42 (2.8°x2.8°)
L30
5-5-5
10: UKMO-
HadGEM1,
2004
Hadley Centre for
Climate Prediction
and Research / Met
Office, UK
top = 39.2 km
(1.3°x1.9°)
L38
1-1-1

5-year running averages of temperature
for 10 AOGCMs and data of observation
at the Akademik Vernadsky station
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
yrs
-8
-6
-4
-2
2-m temperature, oC
1_BCCR_BCM2.0
2_NCAR
3_CGCM3_1_t47
4_CGCM3_1_t63
5_MPI-ECHAM5/OM
6_GFDL_CM2.1
7_MIROC_3_2_hires
8_MIROC_3_2_medres
9_MRI_CGCM2.3.2
10_UKMO_HADGEM1
10 models' mean
Obs. data 1947-2000
Y = 0.057 * X - 117

Temperature differences between year-
mean model and observation data
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
yrs
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2-m temperature diff.
models - obs, oC
1_BCCR_BCM2.0
2_NCAR
3_CGCM3_1_t47
4_CGCM3_1_t63
5_MPI-ECHAM5/OM
6_GFDL_CM2.1
7_MIROC_3_2_hires
8_MIROC_3_2_medres
9_MRI_CGCM2.3.2
10_UKMO_HADGEM1
10 models' mean

The 21st century projection (scenario B1)
for the Akademik Vernadsky station region
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
yrs
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2-m temperature, oC
1_BCCR_BCM2.0
2_NCAR
3_CGCM3_1_t47
4_CGCM3_1_t63
5_MPI-ECHAM5/OM
6_GFDL_CM2.1
7_MIROC_3_2_hires
8_MIROC_3_2_medres
9_MRI_CGCM2.3.2
10_UKMO_HADGEM1
10 models' mean
Y = 0.0144 * X - 32.52

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
yrs
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2-m temperature, oC
1_BCCR_BCM2.0
2_NCAR
3_CGCM3_1_t47
4_CGCM3_1_t63
5_MPI-ECHAM5/OM
6_GFDL_CM2.1
7_MIROC_3_2_hires
8_MIROC_3_2_medres
9_MRI_CGCM2.3.2
10_UKMO_HADGEM1
10 models' mean
Y = 0.0255 * X - 54.97
The 21st century projection (scenario A1B)
for the Akademik Vernadsky station region

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
yrs
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2-m temperature, oC
1_BCCR_BCM2.0
2_NCAR
3_CGCM3_1_t47
4_CGCM3_1_t63
5_MPI-ECHAM5/OM
6_GFDL_CM2.1
7_MIROC_3_2_hires
8_MIROC_3_2_medres
9_MRI_CGCM2.3.2
10_UKMO_HADGEM1
10 models' mean
Y = 0.0286 * X - 61.37
The 21st century projection (scenario A2)
for the Akademik Vernadsky station region

Projected 10-year mean air temperature differences (degС) of
2020-2029 and 2000-2009 at the Ukrainian Antarctic station
Akademik Vernadsky
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 All
models
Models
t, degС
B1 scenario A1B scenario A2 scenario

Projected 10-year mean air temperature differences (degС) of
2040-2049 and 2000-2009 at the Ukrainian Antarctic station
Akademik Vernadsky
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 All
models
Models
t, deg С
B1 scenario A1B scenario A2 scenario

Projected 10-year mean air temperature differences (degС) of
2090-2099 and 2000-2009 at the Ukrainian Antarctic station
Akademik Vernadsky
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
1.BCCR-
BCM2.0
2.NCAR-
CCSM3.0
3.CCCMA-
CGCM3.1(T47)
4.CCCMA-
CGCM3.1(T63)
5.ECHAM5/
MPI-OM
6.GFDL-CM2.1
7.MIROC3.2
(hires)
8.MIROC3.2
(medres)
9.MRI-
CGCM2.3.2
10.UKMO-
HadGEM1
All models
Models
t,degC
B1 scenario A1B scenario A2 scenario

10-years periods in the XXI century
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
B1 scenario
Mean 0,3 0,5 0,7 0,6 0,9 1,3 1,2 1,3 1,3
σ0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,5
Min -0,2 0,1 0,4 0,2 0,3 0,5 0,5 0,7 0,6
Max 0,8 1,1 1,5 1,0 1,9 2,5 2,5 2,4 2,1
A1B scenario
Mean 0,1 0,5 1,0 1,5 1,9 2,3 2,6 2,8 3,1
σ0,4 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,5 0,6 0,7
Min -0,8 -0,2 0,4 1,0 1,5 1,8 1,6 2,2 2,4
Max 0,4 1,2 1,5 2,0 2,6 2,8 3,3 3,9 4,2
A2 scenario
Mean 0,2 0,4 0,5 0,6 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,8 2,1
σ0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,8 0,7
Min -0,1 -0,1 0,1 0,4 0,7 0,9 1,2 1,2 1,6
Max 0,9 0,9 0,9 1,4 2,2 2,2 2,4 3,3 3,6
10-year mean temperature differences
comparable to the 2000-2009 period

CONCLUSIONS
•Ensemble of 10 AOGCMs has demonstrated a good
ability to represent the recent warming at the
Akademik Vernadsky region.
•At the same time, linear trends of just a few models
(MPI-ECHAM5/OM, BCCR_BCM2.0 and CGCM3.1-
t63) were close to the observed one since 1960, but
an ensemble mean trend is twice less.
•The same fault is evident from the obtained tempe-
rature differences models-obs, when the models
show less warmer climate than observed in the last
decades of XXth century.
•Projections for the XXIth century show the same
rate of warming for A1B and A2 scenarios as during
1960-2000 and almost twice less for B1 scenario,
but the most warming is projected for A1B scenario.