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Abstract

Many global land change scenarios are driven by demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel. However, novel demands for other ecosystem services give rise to nexus issues and can lead to different land system changes. In this paper we explore the effects of including multiple different demands in land change scenarios. Our reference scenario is driven by demands for crop production, ruminant livestock production, and provisioning of built-up area. We then compare two alternative scenarios with additional demands for terrestrial carbon storage and biodiversity protection, respectively. These scenarios represent possible implementations of globally agreed policy targets. The simulated land system change scenarios are compared in terms of changes in cropland intensity and area, as well as tree and grassland area changes. We find that the carbon and biodiversity scenarios generally result in greater intensification and less expansion of cropland, with the biodiversity scenario showing a stronger intensification effect. However, the impact of setting the targets impacts different world regions in different ways. Overall, both scenarios result in a larger tree area compared to the reference scenario, while the carbon scenario also yields more grassland area. The land systems simulated while accounting for these additional demand types show strong patterns of specialization and spatial segregation in the provisioning of goods and services in different world regions. Our results indicate the relevance of including demands for multiple different goods and services in global land change assessments.

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... While the influence of demand for biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration on global land use has been assessed (Eitelberg et al., 2016) the relative influence of land restoration and protection targets on land system change and potential impacts of these targets on ES provision has so far remained unexplored. In this context we pose the following questions: ...
... The efficiency indicates the fraction of this maximum yield achieved in a certain location. Extensive systems have an efficiency of < 0.4, intensive systems of > 0.7 (Eitelberg et al., 2016). ...
... We use the land system map initially developed by van Asselen and Verburg (2012) that was later adapted by Eitelberg et al. (2016) to limit livestock composition to bovines, goats and sheep, excluding pigs and poultry. The model uses 24 model regions [Appendix C, Figure C13] for which demands for land-based goods and services are translated into a spatial allocation of land systems. ...
... Much less work has been undertaken to evaluate 30 the future of a suite of ecosystem services in an integrated way ( Krause et al., 2017;Molotoks et al., 2018). However, such analyses provide critically important evidence for balancing the many competing demands on the land system while achieving climate and societal targets such as those laid out in the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development goals ( Eitelberg et al., 2016;Benton et al., 2018;Verhagen et al., 2018). ...
... These two scenarios also most strongly affect biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and BVOCs; while increases in nitrogen losses are generally detrimental, the impact of decreased BVOC emissions is likely to vary regionally.Policymakers and other stakeholders need options for how we can meet the needs of a growing and changing society while 435 achieving climate and sustainable development goals (Benton et al., 2018). Some progress has already been made in this regard at landscape and global scales (Eitelberg et al., 2016;Verhagen et al., 2018). LandSyMM, and analyses it enables such as the ones presented here, can be another powerful tool in this aspect of the science-policy interface.Code availability. ...
Article
Full-text available
A future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climate, growing human populations, and shifting socioeconomic conditions means that the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. These changes will affect not only agricultural land, but terrestrial ecosystems in general. Here, we use the coupled land use and vegetation model LandSyMM to quantify future land use change and resulting impacts on ecosystem service indicators including carbon sequestration, runoff, and nitrogen pollution. We additionally hold certain variables, such as climate or land use, constant to assess the relative contribution of different drivers to the projected impacts. While indicators of some ecosystem services (e.g., flood and drought risk) see trends that are mostly dominated by the direct effects of climate change, others (e.g., carbon sequestration) depend critically on land use and management. Scenarios in which climate change mitigation is more difficult (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) have the strongest impacts on ecosystem service indicators, such as a loss of 13–19 % of land in biodiversity hotspots and a 28 % increase in nitrogen pollution. Evaluating a suite of ecosystem service indicators across scenarios enables the identification of tradeoffs and co-benefits associated with different climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and socioeconomic developments.
... Since at least the late Pleistocene (around 12,000 BC), the long-term impacts from forest clearing have been evident: increased fire frequencies, mega faunal extinctions, species invasions, soil erosion and others (Ellis et al., 2013;Kirch, 2005). In many tropical areas, forests continue to be converted to agriculture, leading to biodiversity loss, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and depleting of critical ecosystem services (Bommarco et al., 2018;Eitelberg et al., 2016;Foley et al., 2011). This is a remarkable impact on the biosphere caused by only one species, human, and one half of all human biomass appropriation occurs on cropland (Haberl et al., 2007). ...
... The increasing demand of humans for ecosystem services, food production and nature protection, require changes in the extent and intensity of land use Stephens et al., 2019). Understanding land-use change is crucial for designing strategies to address sustainability challenges, such as climate change, food security, energy transition, and biodiversity loss (Eitelberg et al., 2016;Meyfroidt et al., 2018). ...
Thesis
Die Nachfrage nach Agrarprodukten hat rapide zugenommen, besonders in schnell wachsenden Volkswirtschaften. Agrarimporte nach China gestiegen, trotz der vielfach gestiegenen Inlandsproduktion seit der Reform und Öffnung 1978. Jedoch ging die Steigerung der Agrarproduktion einher mit hohen Umweltkosten, zum einen durch eine massive Erhöhung der Inputintensität und zum anderen durch die Veränderung der Anbaumuster. In dieser Arbeit habe ich umwelt- und sozioökonomische Daten auf Kreis-Ebene analysiert, um ein grundliegendes quantitatives Verständnis der Muster, Determinanten und Ursachen der landwirtschaftlichen Landnutzungsveränderung in China von 1980 bis 2011 zu entwickeln. In Kapitel II und III habe ich die Veränderung der Anbaumuster der Hauptkultur auf Kreisebene zusammengefasst. Ich habe diese Daten mittels explorativer Geodatenanalyse und räumlich expliziter Panel-Regression untersucht, um raum-zeitliche Determinanten der Änderung in Anbaufläche und Ertrag der Hauptkultur zu identifizieren. In Kapitel IV nutzte ich diese Daten, um die Veränderung der Technischen Effizienz in der Pflanzenproduktion mit Hilfe eines stochastischen Grenzansatzes zu ermitteln, wiederum durch den Einsatz einer räumlich-ökonometrischen Panel-Analyse. Insgesamt hat sich die räumliche Konzentration von Hauptkulturen erhöht. Haupteinflussfaktor für diese Entwicklung war die Bevölkerung. Diese Analyse beleuchtet die Muster und Treiber des agrarwirtschaftlichen Landnutzungswandel für gesamt China und gibt Einblicke in die Brennpunkte des Wandels in Landnutzungsumfang und –intensität. Außerdem zeigten die Elastizitäten der Input-Veränderungen einen Trend in der Pflanzenproduktionsintensität von traditionell zu wissenschaftlich-technologischen Eingriffen. Die Ergebnisse können zur Einwicklung räumlich ausgerichteter Landnutzungspolitiken in China beitragen. Sie stellen außerdem wichtige Fallbeweise für den globalen Landnutzungswandel zur Verfügung.
... For cropland this could lead to agricultural intensification instead of cropland expansion, i.e. producing a larger amount of crops per unit land (Kuemmerle et al., 2013). These developments have been responsible for the vast majority of the recent increase in food production, and these processes have been included in a number of recent land use change assessments (Eitelberg, van Vliet, Doelman, Stehfest, & Verburg, 2016; van Asselen & Verburg, 2013). Similarly, for urban areas this could lead to an increase in population density, instead of urban expansion. ...
... Contrary to most other existing models, the amount of built-up land is therefore a consequence, rather than an input to the model. This approach to modeling urban change in terms of land cover as well as land use intensity builds on the land systems models (Eitelberg et al., 2016;Malek, Verburg, Geijzendorffer, & Bondeau, 2018; van Asselen & Verburg, 2013), which pioneered this approach for agricultural land use intensity. ...
Article
Urban areas in China have expanded rapidly in recent decades, which mainly resulted in the conversion of fertile cropland. As the growth of urban areas is likely to continue in the next decades, there is a need for detailed assessments of urbanization impacts on food production. However, most land use models cannot simulate different types of urban change trajectories, such as expansion and densification, which constrains their capacity to inform such assessments with sufficient detail on the patterns of urbanization. In this paper, we present a land use model that represents multiple types of settlements, which allows to simulate multiple different urban change trajectories. We applied this model to Jiangsu Province, China, and assess the impact of projected urban development between 2015 and 2030 on cropland area and crop production. Results show that population growth is accommodated by different urban change trajectories, depending on the absence or presence of land use policies to maintain food security. In the absence of policies, population growth mainly leads to urban expansion, yielding losses in both cropland area and crop production. Implementing strict cropland protection policies leads to more urban densification and all population can be accommodated without a net loss of cropland. Yet, crop production decreases in this scenario as the most productive croplands are still converted and compensated by less productive areas. Protecting crop production instead leads to a small loss in cropland area combined with cropland intensification and different types of urban change, but maintains the total crop production. These results show the relevance of more nuanced representation of urban development in land use models in order to inform land use policies.
... Particularly, climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, food, and bioenergy production are becoming increasingly telecoupled (Friis et al. 2015). While the demand for these ES is spread all over the globe (Serna-Chavez et al. 2014;Eitelberg et al. 2016;Fuchs et al. 2017), the supply is concentrated in regions that host sufficient ES to meet these global demands. As a consequence, those regions experience an expansion of agriculture, as well as large-scale land acquisitions by foreign governments, companies, or individuals (Nolte et al. 2016). ...
... So far, drivers of land use or land system changes have been addressed from either a macroeconomic or local perspective (Verburg et al. 2008). Larger-scale studies that take a macroeconomic perspective have used outputs from macroeconomic and integrated assessment models (IAMs) (e.g., Eitelberg et al. 2016), or optimization models, e.g., to harmonize land use goals related to the SDGs across local, national, and global scales (Heck et al. 2018). Local perspectives have captured cultural and behavioral motives of land use decisionmaking using agent-based modeling (Zagaria et al. 2017). ...
Article
Full-text available
Integrated landscape management (ILM) has received increased interest to reconcile multiple conflicting demands on a landscape scale. ILM aims at addressing major interconnected global challenges, such as poverty, food security, deforestation, and climate change. A principal element of ILM is the consideration of multiple scales, harmonizing local-level needs and ambitions with those that derive from outside the landscape. ILM initiatives are most often initiated by local actors focusing on local priorities, thereby insufficiently realizing that the landscape is embedded in a wider macroeconomic and societal context. We contextualize a landscape initiative located in the high forest zone of southern Ghana, focusing on global socio-economic and political developments that are expected to have an influence on the region. We built two "sustainability" scenarios for the period between 2015 and 2030, reflecting the demands and ambitions of local stakeholders (bottom-up) and of global environmental policy (top-down) for the region. We find that global climate and cocoa production priorities could induce synergies between food production, biodiversity conservation, and climate change mitigation at the scale of the case study region but could come at the cost of mixed forest systems that play an important role in livelihoods on the landscape scale. Land change scenarios can play a critical role in assessing and visualizing such interactions and provide a platform for discussion and negotiation on how to integrate different objectives in the design of landscape initiatives.
... Yet, land uses can change in their extent but also in their intensity, thus allowing for multiple different change trajectories in response to an increase in demand. Moreover, most models are driven by demands for agricultural products and built-up areas, though the multiple non-material demands for afforestation and biodiversity protection will also affect the land system changes (DeFries and Rosenzweig 2010; Eitelberg et al. 2016). To overcome these constraints, a land systembased approach, which captures both land cover and land use at the landscape level, was proposed for land change modelling (Van Asselen and Verburg 2012). ...
... Apart from the Conservation scenario, the forest areas (SDG 15) are projected to decrease under three scenarios by 2030, resulting in decreased carbon storage (SDG 13) in the LRB. To minimise the trade-offs and maximise the synergies between urbanisation and environmental and biodiversity conservation, the posed additional challenges to the region's scarcer land is unavoidable (Eitelberg et al. 2016;Van Asselen and Verburg 2013). The LRB needs policy coherence and synergies, with the integrated thinking of placing the nexus at the centre in meeting the sustainable demands across the water, energy, food, and biodiversity sectors. ...
Article
Full-text available
A more holistic understanding of land use and land cover (LULC) will help minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies, and lead to improved future land use management strategies for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, current assessments of future LULC changes rarely focus on the multiple demands for goods and services, which are related to the synergies and trade-offs between SDGs and their targets. In this study, the land system (combinations of land cover and land use intensity) evolution trajectories of the Luanhe River Basin (LRB), China, and major challenges that the LRB may face in 2030, were explored by applying the CLUMondo and InVEST models. The results indicate that the LRB is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all four scenarios that were explored. The cropland intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend (Trend) scenario compared to those with more planning interventions (Expansion, Sustainability, and Conservation scenarios). Unless the forest area and biodiversity conservation targets are implemented (Conservation scenario), the forest areas are projected to decrease by 2030. The results indicate that water scarcity in the LRB is likely to increase under all scenarios, and the carbon storage will increase under the Conservation scenario but decrease under all other scenarios by 2030. Our methodological framework and findings can guide regional sustainable development in the LRB and other large river basins in China, and will be valuable for policy and planning purposes to the pursuance of SDGs at the sub-national scale. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01004-y.
... Models were conducted using two random sampling subsets of occurrence records: 80% for training data and 20% for testing data. To reduce artificial errors, we ran 500 iterations and 10 replicates using repeated split sampling for each species [41]. Furthermore, all other parameters were used according to recommended default parameters. ...
... Furthermore, all other parameters were used according to recommended default parameters. The performance of the model for each species was examined by an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with the 10-fold cross-validation method [41][42][43]. Furthermore, AUC values were employed to evaluate the prediction accuracy of each model, and models with AUC value <0.7 were considered as the good fitted model [44,45]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Rapid climate and land-use changes have been considered as the foremost threat to global biodiversity. China contains more than 3500 threatened higher plants, whereas the relative influence of climate and land-use changes on these endangered plants have not been explored simultaneously under topographical constraints. Here, using Taxus plants as the case study genus, we simulated the distribution range of threatened species under three scenarios of current and future climate and land-use conditions under topographical constraints. We also measured the associated difference in the responses of Taxus species to climate and land-use changes. Our results demonstrated the substantial influence of climate and land-use changes on the distributions of Taxus species. However, we observed different responses of Taxus species to these environmental changes. The distribution range of T. cuspidate Siebold & Zuccarini and T. mairei Lemee & H. Léveillé would substantially shrink, whereas the habitat range of T. fuana Nan Li & R. R. Mill would sharply expand under RCP 8.5(Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios) scenario. Meanwhile, T. wallichiana Zuccarini and T. chinensis (Pilger) Florin would experience apparent range shifts. Furthermore, topographical factors played non-negligible roles in shaping species distributions, and modifying the influence of climate and land-use changes. Together, these results provide robust evidence that even threatened species will have multiple responses to climate and land-use changes (e.g., shrinking, expanding, shifting). Our findings highlight that taking species ecological traits, habitat characteristics, and topographical constraints into account might provide valuable insights into threatened species conservation in the face of global environmental changes.
... Much less work has been undertaken to evaluate the future of a suite of ecosystem services in an integrated way (Krause et al., 2017;Molotoks et al., 2018). However, such analyses provide critically important evidence for balancing the many competing demands on the land system while achieving climate and societal targets such as those laid out in the Paris Agreement and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (Eitelberg et al., 2016;Benton et al., 2018;Verhagen et al., 2018). ...
... Policymakers and other stakeholders need options for how we can meet the needs of a growing and changing society while achieving climate and sustainable development goals (Benton et al., 2018). Some progress has already been made in this regard at landscape and global scales (Eitelberg et al., 2016;Verhagen et al., 2018). LandSyMM, and analyses it enables such as the ones presented here, can be another powerful tool in this aspect of the science-policy interface. ...
Article
Full-text available
A future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climate, growing human populations, and shifting socioeconomic conditions means that the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. These changes will affect not only agricultural land but terrestrial ecosystems in general. Here, we use the coupled land use and vegetation model LandSyMM (Land System Modular Model) to quantify future land use change (LUC) and resulting impacts on ecosystem service indicators relating to carbon sequestration, runoff, biodiversity, and nitrogen pollution. We additionally hold certain variables, such as climate or land use, constant to assess the relative contribution of different drivers to the projected impacts. Some ecosystem services depend critically on land use and management: for example, carbon storage, the gain in which is more than 2.5 times higher in a low-LUC scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0; SSP4-60) than a high-LUC one with the same carbon dioxide and climate trajectory (SSP3-60). Other trends are mostly dominated by the direct effects of climate change and carbon dioxide increase. For example, in those two scenarios, extreme high monthly runoff increases across 54 % and 53 % of land, respectively, with a mean increase of 23 % in both. Scenarios in which climate change mitigation is more difficult (SSPs 3 and 5) have the strongest impacts on ecosystem service indicators, such as a loss of 13 %–19 % of land in biodiversity hotspots and a 28 % increase in nitrogen pollution. Evaluating a suite of ecosystem service indicators across scenarios enables the identification of tradeoffs and co-benefits associated with different climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and socioeconomic developments.
... Studies have indicated that land cover dynamics is one of the major impacts on biodiversity persistence [111]. Also, many studies around the globe [111][112][113][114][115][116][117] have investigated the negative impacts of land cover change on biodiversity loss. All these studies deduced that human-made land cover change has aggravated the loss of habitats and biodiversity fragmentation by increasing the vulnerability of biological populations to speculative risk loss. ...
Article
Full-text available
Land cover patterns in sub-Saharan Africa are rapidly changing. This study aims to quantify the land cover change and to identify its major determinants by using the Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, Responses (DPSIR) framework in the Ethiopian Gozamin District over a period of 32 years (1986 to 2018). Satellite images of Landsat 5 (1986), Landsat 7 (2003), and Sentinel-2 (2018) and a supervised image classification methodology were used to assess the dynamics of land cover change. Land cover maps of the three dates, focus group discussions (FGDs), interviews, and farmers’ lived experiences through a household survey were applied to identify the factors for changes based on the DPSIR framework. Results of the investigations revealed that during the last three decades the study area has undergone an extensive land cover change, primarily a shift from cropland and grassland into forests and built-up areas. Thus, quantitative land cover change detection between 1986 and 2018 revealed that cropland, grassland, and bare areas declined by 10.53%, 5.7%, and 2.49%. Forest, built-up, shrub/scattered vegetation, and water bodies expanded by 13.47%, 4.02%, 0.98%, and 0.25%. Household surveys and focus group discussions (FGDs) identified the population growth, the rural land tenure system, the overuse of land, the climate change, and the scarcity of grazing land as drivers of these land cover changes. Major impacts were rural to urban migration, population size change, scarcity of land, and decline in land productivity. The outputs from this study could be used to assure sustainability in resource utilization, proper land use planning, and proper decision-making by the concerned government authorities.
... The characteristic of the model lies in land system changes driven by demand for goods or services, and the model fully considers the impact of socio-economic development on land profit change and conforms to the characteristics of current land development and utilisation. This model is widely used in the study of land use change because it is in accordance with the characteristics of land development and utilisation (Eitelberg et al., 2016;van Vliet et al., 2017;Malek et al., 2018;Debonne et al., 2019). ...
Article
Establishing ecological security patterns provides new ideas for maintaining regional ecological security. Methods for establishing these patterns have been extensively investigated in several studies, but the ecological protection effects of these patterns need further examination. Nanchang is the capital city of Jiangxi province and a typical representative of rapidly developing cities. With the proposal of an ecological environment protection plan for Nanchang metropolitan area, the coordinated development of ecology, economy and society has become the local development goal. This study used Nanchang City as an example for the establishment of an ecological security pattern through the circuit theory. The ecological sources of a 1068.56 km² location and 20 ecological corridors with a total area of 957.39 km² were identified. Three development scenarios in 2015–2040 were set up, namely, unrestricted development (UD), core area protection (CP) and ecological security pattern restriction (ESPR) scenarios. The UD scenario followed the land expansion rate from 2010 to 2015. The CP scenario used a nature reserve as a forbidden conversion area. Under the ESPR scenario, ecological security pattern was regarded as a prohibited conversion area. The CLUMondo model was used in simulating land use and evaluating the ecological protection effects of the scenarios. Through comparison, we determined that the ecological security indices under UD, CP and ESPR were 0.230, 0.242 and 0.249, respectively, from the perspective of the overall ecological security of the region. In the evaluation of the landscape characteristics of EL, under ESPR, the landscape connectivity was the best. The detailed analysis results showed that the ecological security pattern not only could protect the regional ecological security on the regional scale but also had an outstanding protection effect on the local scale. In summary, compared with the UD and CP scenarios, ecological security patterns had a better effect on regional ecological protection.
... We used a global land systems map for the year 2000 (Eitelberg et al., 2016;van Asselen and Verburg, 2012) and a global land systems change model (CLUMondo) ( van Asselen and Verburg, 2013) to examine land-use change in focal areas for the individual targets and areas of overlap. Spatially explicit land-use change models are important tools to analyze potential land-use trajectories for ecological analysis (e.g. ...
Article
Stemming biodiversity loss requires strategic conservation guided by well articulated targets, whether they be proactive (e.g., protect biodiverse areas) or reactive (e.g., protect threatened species). Both types of targets can be effective, but there are trade-offs, especially for broadly distributed taxa such as migratory species, a group for which conservation has been challenged by limited knowledge of distributions throughout the annual cycle. We combined spatio-temporal distribution models with population trend data to first examine focal areas for the conservation of Neotropical migratory birds (n =112 species) during the non-breeding period in the Western Hemisphere, based on a proactive approach (highest diversity) versus a reactive approach (strongest declines). For focal areas, we then assessed the extent of recent anthropogenic impact, protected area status, and projected changes in land cover using shared socioeconomic pathways. Spatial priorities for high diversity emphasized southern Mexico and northern Central America, and were strikingly different from areas with species in stronger decline, emphasizing the Andean cordilleras. Only 1.4% of the non-breeding region met targets for diversity and decline, mostly in southern Central America. Areas prioritized to conserve high species diversity have experienced less recent anthropogenic impact than areas prioritized for species in decline but are predicted to experience more rapid land conversion to less suitable agricultural landscapes in the next three decades. Our findings indicate how efficient conservation efforts will depend on the careful consideration of desired targets combined with reliable predictions about the locations and types of land cover change under alternative socioeconomic futures.
... Different types of land use models have been developed over the past decades for different purposes and objectives, ranging from economic models that focus on land use decision making based on market prices and costs to spatial models that emulate changes in spatial patterns based on neighbouring land uses (Brown et al., 2013;Irwin and Geoghegan, 2001). To explore the geographic question on the effects of factors contributing to the location of crop booms, we used the CLU-Mondo modelling framework (Van Asselen and which is based on a geographic approach and spatially allocates diverse types of demands on the land ranging from agricultural commodities, to various ecosystem services (Stürck et al. 2015), water for irrigation (Malek and Verburg, 2017) and biodiversity protection and carbon sequestration (Eitelberg et al., 2016). A key difference to other frameworks is that CLUMondo simulates land systems (i.e. ...
Article
Crop booms are phenomena of global environmental change that keep on occurring around the globe and frequently exploit or degrade the local socio-ecological resources (resulting in e.g. loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, indebtedness). While causal mechanisms were identified and summarized in several frameworks, the causal effects of the identified factors remained largely unknown. In this study, we set up a new application of a spatial land system model to examine the causes for the clustered spatial pattern of the maize boom between 2000 and 2016 in Sayaboury Province, Laos. The factors tested included market access (travel time to trader companies), land productivity and total net revenue (proxy for profitability), spatial differences in farm gate price of maize, slope, and soil types. While crop booms are commonly associated with high commodity prices and improved market accessibility, our simulation results suggested that the combination of the geographic and economic factors we tested partially contribute to explain the location and spatial extent of the maize boom, but a full explanation has not been found. Interestingly though, temporal dynamics, such as increases in land productivity and profitability had the largest effect on model performance regarding the size of the maize boom area (experiment 2). Productivity and profitability increased thanks to political economic support for the introduction of a series of techniques (i.e. hybrid maize cultivars, herbicides, mechanical tillage and sowing) that made maize mono-cropping disproportionally competitive over other land management. We outline implications of our findings for governance bodies that are faced with crop booms.
... Trade between world regions is excluded in CLUMondo. Eitelberg et al. (2016) designed three CLUMondo scenarios: a reference scenario based on FAO-expected developments of basic demands, and two scenarios that in addition included a policy target of reducing deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions with a higher ecosystem carbon storage, and international policy targets for the prevention of biodiversity loss. 130 ...
Preprint
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Land-use models and Integrated Assessment Models provide scenarios of land use/cover (LULC) changes following pathways or storylines related to different socio-economic and environmental developments. The large diversity of available scenario projections leads to a recognizable variability in impacts on land ecosystems and the levels of services provided. We evaluated 16 projections of future LULC until 2040 that reflected different assumptions on socio-economic demands and modeling protocols. By using these LULC projections in a state of the art dynamic global vegetation model, we simulated their effect on selected ecosystem service indicators related to ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration potential, agricultural production and the water cycle. We found that although a common trend for agricultural expansion exists across the scenarios, where and how particular LULC changes are realized differs widely across models and scenarios. They are linked to model-specific considerations of some demands over others and their respective translation into LULC changes and also reflect the simplified or missing representation of processes related to land dynamics or other influencing factors (e.g., trade, climate change). As a result, some scenarios show questionable and possibly unrealistic features in their LULC allocations, including highly regionalized LULC changes with rates of conversion that are contrary to or exceeding rates observed in the past. Across the diverging LULC projections we identified positive global trends of net primary productivity (+10.2 %), vegetation carbon (+9.2 %), crop production (+31.2 %) and water runoff (+9.3 %), and a negative trend of soil and litter carbon stocks (−0.5 %). The variability in ecosystem service indicators across scenarios was especially high for vegetation carbon stocks (± 4.1 %) and crop production (± 12.2 %). Regionally, variability was highest in tropical forest regions, especially at current forest edges, because of intense and strongly diverging LULC change projections in combination with high vegetation productivity dampening or amplifying the effects of climatic change. Our results emphasize that information on future changes in ecosystem functioning and the related ecosystem service indicators should be seen in light of the variability originating from diverging projections of LULC. This is necessary to allow for adequate policy support towards sustainable transformations.
... Land-use change (LUC) is vital in the ongoing global change phenomena being directly related to human health, environmental refugees, food security, biodiversity, water and soil quality, runoff and sedimentation rates, etc. (Durán et al. 2011(Durán et al. , 2014Rutten et al. 2014;Eitelberg et al. 2016;Carpio et al. 2016;Qi et al. 2018;Dhakal et al. 2015;Yadav et al. 2017c). Additionally, LUCs have altered the ecosystems of the Mediterranean area being dependent to the vagaries and complexities of political, social, economic and religious and cultural components. ...
Chapter
Terracing is a soil conservation strategy applied worldwide to prevent erosion and runoff on sloping lands. Orchard terraces can considerably reduce soil loss due to water erosion if they are well planned, correctly constructed and properly maintained. Terraces have to be combined with additional soil conservation practices, of which the most important is the maintenance of a soil cover, especially during the rainy period. On the coastal strip of the provinces of Granada and Malaga (south-eastern Spain), irrigated subtropical fruit species have been introduced and cultivated on terraces with a considerable importance as the only European producer region. The subtropical farming in this zone also has strong socio-economic impact. In the present chapter, land-use changes were analysed in a selected representative watershed over 29 years. According to the findings, formerly, 97.5% of the watershed was devoted to traditional Mediterranean crops; however, after this period, due to abandonment, this area was reduced to 17.6% and increased in subtropical fruit crops (26.6%), shrubland (29.8%) and abandoned cropland (24.6%). The main driving force in land-use change has been intensive irrigation on terraces planted with subtropical crops, which are economically more profitable than traditional rainfed crops, almond and olive, which have been replaced or abandoned. The intensification of subtropical farming in terraces provokes environmental effects, especially those regarding soil and water resources, which need to be minimized. The results support the recommendation of using plant covers on the taluses of subtropical crop terraces in order to control soil erosion and improve the soil quality in the taluses of orchard terraces. In this sense, compared to bare soil, thyme and native spontaneous vegetation plant covers reduced the runoff with 94% and 93% and declined erosion with 71% and 79%, respectively. That is to avoid the collapse of the structure and make more feasible the subtropical fruit cultivation in the study area. Thus, it is possible to mitigate the impact of subtropical farming on terraces by adopting sustainable measures for soil and water conservation.
... In addition, the spatial scale of the supply and demand of ES should be taken into account when examining change (Burkhard et al., 2012;Kroll et al., 2012;Eitelberg et al., 2016). For example, our study assumed that water is used directly where precipitation occurs (at the pixel scale), but in reality, water used by inhabitants is normally obtained from reservoirs upstream (Fig. 1A). ...
Article
Keywords: InVEST Land use and land cover Protected areas Territorial planning Urban-rural gradient Urban sprawl A B S T R A C T Global trends in land-use changes, including urbanization and abandonment of rural areas, have important repercussions for the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we assessed and mapped the supply and demand of three ES (water provision, climate regulation, and outdoor recreation) along an urban-rural gradient in the Madrid region (Spain) from 1990 to 2012. We mapped ES supply, based on land use/land cover (LULC) data, using InVEST models and complementary methods, and ES demand, using population density and demand indicators. Then, we explored spatial supply-demand mismatches at a municipality spatial scale. Despite an increase in ES supply in some areas, a general increase in ES demand led to increasing dependence by the Madrid metropolitan area on outlying areas. We found that the number of municipalities that exhibited mismatches between the supply and demand in ES increased throughout the study period, due mainly to urban sprawl. Our results suggest the need for comprehensive land-use planning at the regional scale, taking into account that many ES flows reach beyond municipality boundaries. Finally, we discuss the utility of analyzing spatial mismatches in the supply and demand of ES for land-use planning and decision-making.
... In fact, the future demand for carbon storage and ecological services will be closely related to land use scenarios. Existing studies, at diverse scales, have confirmed that land use change will pose severe threatens to ecosystems and it is of great value to simulate future land use change under alternative scenarios and assess their impacts on ecosystem services such as carbon storage (Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2015;Eitelberg, van Vliet, Doelman, Stehfest, & Verburg, 2016;Seto et al., 2012). In this aspect, the InVEST model is an effective tool which can link LUCC with carbon stock change, as it can directly use the global or regional carbon density distribution of various vegetation and soil types to estimate carbon storage (Erik et al., 2009). ...
Article
Land use/cover change (LUCC) in the context of rapid urbanization process has exerted profound influences on carbon storage and ecosystem functions. Exploring the relationships between various urbanization patterns and carbon storage is conductive to developing scientific carbon storage polices. This study incorporated climate change and socioeconomic development into the urbanization process, and designed six future urbanization scenarios based on the combination of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). A hierarchical framework that integrates system dynamic, land-use simulation and carbon storage evaluation models was proposed to predict urban land use change under six concurrent scenarios of climate and socioeconomic conditions, and examine their synergic effects on carbon storage. Hubei Province, a rapidly urbanized area in central China, was selected as a case study. The results show that the decline of carbon storage from 2015 to 2030 ranges from 16.40 Tg to 24.22 Tg under different scenarios, and the scenario featuring steady climate conditions, low population growth, moderate economic growth and high-quality urbanization (e.g., technology innovation) will better maintain carbon storage. Our findings also demonstrate the spatially heterogeneous patterns of carbon storage change at regional scale, and more severe carbon storage loss in the medium-sized cities than the metropolis. This study suggests that targeted ecological conservation strategies should be developed for different cities.
... Land-use change (LUC) is vital in the ongoing global change phenomena being directly related to human health, environmental refugees, food security, biodiversity, water and soil quality, runoff and sedimentation rates, etc. (Durán et al. 2011(Durán et al. , 2014Rutten et al. 2014;Eitelberg et al. 2016;Carpio et al. 2016;Qi et al. 2018;Dhakal et al. 2015;Yadav et al. 2017c). Additionally, LUCs have altered the ecosystems of the Mediterranean area being dependent to the vagaries and complexities of political, social, economic and religious and cultural components. ...
Chapter
Terracing is a soil conservation strategy applied worldwide to prevent erosion and runoff on sloping lands. Orchard terraces can considerably reduce soil loss due to water erosion if they are well planned, correctly constructed and properly maintained. Terraces have to be combined with additional soil conservation practices, of which the most important is the maintenance of a soil cover, especially during the rainy period. On the coastal strip of the provinces of Granada and Malaga (south-eastern Spain), irrigated subtropical fruit species have been introduced and cultivated on terraces with a considerable importance as the only European producer region. The subtropical farming in this zone also has strong socio-economic impact. In the present chapter, land-use changes were analysed in a selected representative watershed over 29 years. According to the findings, formerly, 97.5% of the watershed was devoted to traditional Mediterranean crops; however, after this period, due to abandonment, this area was reduced to 17.6% and increased in subtropical fruit crops (26.6%), shrubland (29.8%) and abandoned cropland (24.6%). The main driving force in land-use change has been intensive irrigation on terraces planted with subtropical crops, which are economically more profitable than traditional rainfed crops, almond and olive, which have been replaced or abandoned. The intensification of subtropical farming in terraces provokes environmental effects, especially those regarding soil and water resources, which need to be minimized. The results support the recommendation of using plant covers on the taluses of subtropical crop terraces in order to control soil erosion and improve the soil quality in the taluses of orchard terraces. In this sense, compared to bare soil, thyme and native spontaneous vegetation plant covers reduced the runoff with 94% and 93% and declined erosion with 71% and 79%, respectively. That is to avoid the collapse of the structure and make more feasible the subtropical fruit cultivation in the study area. Thus, it is possible to mitigate the impact of subtropical farming on terraces by adopting sustainable measures for soil and water conservation.
... Notwithstanding, we encourage the practitioner to explore the scenario development literature in order to ensure applicability of modeling approaches to real problems(Dinerstein et al., 2017;Eitelberg et al., 2016;Fernandes et al., 2016;Montesino Pouzols et al., 2014;Newbold et al., 2016;Pereira et al., 2010;Rosa et al., 2017;Titeux et al., 2016;Veldman et al., 2015aVeldman et al., , 2015b. ...
Article
The year 2020 is a critical year for sustainable development policy and practice with the review and renewal of various international commitments including the Sustainable Development Goals, the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Paris Agreement. The post-2020 agenda needs to be informed by more robust analytical approaches that capture the interactions between the economy, society and the environment. In this paper, we review the state of the art in available models and datasets that lay the groundwork for future analytical work to inform this agenda. Based on this review, we propose an integrated modeling approach for global analysis to underpin international policy discourse and advocacy, and; a sub-global approach focusing on evaluating specific strategies and policy portfolios to make progress toward sustainability commitments considering detailed local country context. Both approaches rely on integrating whole of economy computable general equilibrium models with spatial land use land cover and ecosystem services models. Endogenizing feedbacks between modeling system components ensures that evidence is based on interactions between all system components. Recent advances in methods, data and available tools discussed herein reduce barriers to entry for this type of complex systems analysis and increases the timeliness of policy advice.
... The presence of livestock in permanent croplands also enhance biodiversity thanks to the heterogeneity that animals cause (faeces, vegetation selection by grazing and trampling) as described by Sánchez (1995); Buttler et al (2009). The increase of biodiversity is connected with the increase of carbon storage (Eitelberg et al., 2016) and may be connected with a reduction of pests and illnesses in the crops (Dupraz and Liagre, 2011), therefore linked to a healthier food production (Tscharntke et al., 2012). Silvoarable practices (e.g. the combination of an arable crops with trees) only occupies 360,000 ha representing less than 1% of the EU land occupied by agroforestry practices, over half of it managed under permanent crops. ...
Article
Agroforestry is an integrated land use management that combines a woody component with a lower story agricultural production recognized as one of the most important tools to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The objective of this paper is to provide a categorization and extent of agroforestry practices linked to agricultural and forest lands at regional level and evaluate how are they promoted by the previous (2007-2013) and current CAP (2014-2020) with a special focus on climate change mitigation potential. Agroforestry occupies almost 20 million hectares in Europe, being silvopasture and homegardens the most extensively spread practices and forest farming not quantified. Agroforestry practices are promoted at European level but in a really complex form as more than 25 measures are implemented to enhance the existing 5 agroforestry practices (silvopasture, silvoarable, riparian buffer strips, forest farming and homegardens). Simplification of the number of measures to promote agroforestry practices is needed to better follow up the implementation and to evaluate and provide future policies more adapted at European levels. Huge potential climate change mitigation options should be focused on the use of silvopasture on forest lands to reduce forest fires and to increase the presence of the woody component on arable lands (silvoarable) but also on the promotion of forest farming and homegardens as forms to increase the use of short supply chains and to increase the connection of urban, periurban and rural areas within a bioeconomy and circular economy framework.
... Furthermore, our analysis about the ecological land loss due to urban expansion and cropland compensation shows the phenomenon that cropland compensation occupies ecological land, which is much more serious than the urban expansion in ecological land. This finding can support the view that the implementation of cropland protection policies causes damage to the ecosystem (Eitelberg et al., 2016;Qiu et al., 2019;Tang et al., 2020a;Wang et al., 2019). Our result indicated that why cropland protection caused more damage to the ecological land compared with urban expansion given the following concepts: a) compared with the ecological land, urban expansion is more likely to take in cropland, most of which have high quality; b) to meet the requirement of cropland protection, some new cropland were reclaimed from ecological land. ...
Article
Cropland protection strategies have provided a strong contribution to limit cropland transformation worldwide. However, it negatively affects ecological land (e.g., forest, grassland, and wetland). Identifying a win-win approach for cropland protection and ecological conservation is important. Land use optimization plays a vital role in solving conflicts among land uses. Thus, in this research, taking China (mainland) as the study area, we optimized the spatial distribution of urban land and cropland to balance the requirement of cropland protection strategies and their negative effects on ecological land according to the spatial heterogeneity of land agricultural production capacity by using the LAND System Cellular Automata model for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE). Specifically, we developed three optimization scenarios from compensational, occupancy, and occupancy and compensational sectors. We also developed one non-optimization scenario to remain comparable. Results show that compared with the non-optimization scenario, the reduced loss of ecological land in compensational, occupancy, and occupancy and compensational optimization scenario is 7180, 247, and 7277 km², respectively. Our research indicates that we should prioritize the quality of compensated cropland when developing cropland protection strategies and planning, considering the low efficiency of the occupancy optimization and the cost of policymaking and implementing.
... These discuss, for instance, the linkage between land-based mitigation options (SDG 13), in particular, bioenergy, and aspects around land competition and food security (SDG 2) [72e77], as well as water availability/security (SDG 6) [74,78e81]. Conversely, only a few studies have analysed biodiversity impacts (SDG 15) of land-based mitigation (SDG 13) [82], an interaction that has been deemed as important according to the expert survey. Finally, some studies have examined the air pollution implications (SDG 3) of alternate climate mitigation pathways (SDG 13) [11,83e86], even though health impacts have been studied directly only in recent times [87]. ...
Article
To achieve all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, it is necessary to understand how they interact with each other. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) represent many human–environment interactions and can inform policymakers about the synergies and trade-offs involved in meeting multiple goals simultaneously. We analyse how IAMs, originally developed to study interactions among energy, the economy, climate, and land, can contribute to a wider analysis of the SDGs in order to inform integrated policies. We compare the key interactions identified among the SDGs in an expert survey, with their current and planned representation in models as identified in a survey among modellers. We also use text mining to reveal past practices by extracting the themes discussed in the IAM literature, linking them to the SDGs, and identifying the interactions among them, thus corroborating our previous results. This combination of methods allowed us to discuss the role of modelling in informing policy coherence and stimulate discussions on future research. The analysis shows that IAMs cover the SDGs related to climate because of their design. It also shows that most IAMs cover several other areas that are related to resource use and the Earth system as well. Some other dimensions of the 2030 Agenda are also covered, but socio-political and equality goals, and others related to human development and governance, are not well represented. Some of these are difficult to capture in models. Therefore, it is necessary to facilitate a better representation of heterogeneity (greater geographical and sectoral detail) by using different types of models (e.g. national and global) and linking different disciplines (especially social sciences) together. Planned developments include increased coverage of human development goals and contribute to policy coherence.
... Different types of land use models have been developed over the past decades for different purposes and objectives, ranging from economic models that focus on land use decision making based on market prices and costs to spatial models that emulate changes in spatial patterns based on neighbouring land uses (Brown et al., 2013;Irwin and Geoghegan, 2001). To explore the geographic question on the effects of factors contributing to the location of crop booms, we used the CLU-Mondo modelling framework (Van Asselen and which is based on a geographic approach and spatially allocates diverse types of demands on the land ranging from agricultural commodities, to various ecosystem services (Stürck et al. 2015), water for irrigation (Malek and Verburg, 2017) and biodiversity protection and carbon sequestration (Eitelberg et al., 2016). A key difference to other frameworks is that CLUMondo simulates land systems (i.e. ...
Article
Crop booms are phenomena of global environmental change that keep on occurring around the globe and frequently exploit or degrade the local socio-ecological resources (resulting in e.g. loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, indebtedness). While causal mechanisms were identified and summarized in several frameworks, the causal effects of the identified factors remained largely unknown. In this study, we set up a new application of a spatial land system model to examine the causes for the clustered spatial pattern of the maize boom between 2000 and 2016 in Sayaboury Province, Laos. The factors tested included market access (travel time to trader companies), land productivity and total net revenue (proxy for profitability), spatial differences in farm gate price of maize, slope, and soil types. While crop booms are commonly associated with high commodity prices and improved market accessibility, our simulation results suggested that the combination of the geographic and economic factors we tested partially contribute to explain the location and spatial extent of the maize boom, but a full explanation has not been found. Interestingly though, temporal dynamics, such as increases in land productivity and profitability had the largest effect on model performance regarding the size of the maize boom area (experiment 2). Productivity and profitability increased thanks to political economic support for the introduction of a series of techniques (i.e. hybrid maize cultivars, herbicides, mechanical tillage and sowing) that made maize mono-cropping disproportionally competitive over other land management. We outline implications of our findings for governance bodies that are faced with crop booms.
... Trade between world regions is excluded in CLU-Mondo. Eitelberg et al. (2016) designed three CLUMondo scenarios: a reference scenario following the development of basic demands as expected by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and two scenarios that additionally included a policy target of reducing deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions with a higher ecosystem carbon storage and international policy targets for the prevention of biodiversity loss. ...
Article
Full-text available
Land-use models and integrated assessment models provide scenarios of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes following pathways or storylines related to different socioeconomic and environmental developments. The large diversity of available scenario projections leads to a recognizable variability in impacts on land ecosystems and the levels of services provided. We evaluated 16 projections of future LULC until 2040 that reflected different assumptions regarding socioeconomic demands and modeling protocols. By using these LULC projections in a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model, we simulated their effect on selected ecosystem service indicators related to ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration potential, agricultural production and the water cycle. We found that although a common trend for agricultural expansion exists across the scenarios, where and how particular LULC changes are realized differs widely across models and scenarios. They are linked to model-specific considerations of some demands over others and their respective translation into LULC changes and also reflect the simplified or missing representation of processes related to land dynamics or other influencing factors (e.g., trade, climate change). As a result, some scenarios show questionable and possibly unrealistic features in their LULC allocations, including highly regionalized LULC changes with rates of conversion that are contrary to or exceed rates observed in the past. Across the diverging LULC projections, we identified positive global trends of net primary productivity (+10.2 % ± 1.4 %), vegetation carbon (+9.2 % ± 4.1 %), crop production (+31.2 % ± 12.2 %) and water runoff (+9.3 % ± 1.7 %), and a negative trend of soil and litter carbon stocks (−0.5 % ± 0.4 %). The variability in ecosystem service indicators across scenarios was especially high for vegetation carbon stocks and crop production. Regionally, variability was highest in tropical forest regions, especially at current forest boundaries, because of intense and strongly diverging LULC change projections in combination with high vegetation productivity dampening or amplifying the effects of climatic change. Our results emphasize that information on future changes in ecosystem functioning and the related ecosystem service indicators should be seen in light of the variability originating from diverging projections of LULC. This is necessary to allow for adequate policy support towards sustainable transformations.
... La realización de este tipo de estudios puede enlazarse con otro tipo de trabajos como son los de ecología del paisaje (Turner et al., 2001) o investigaciones que analicen los intercambios y las sinergias en la provisión de servicios del ecosistema o en el cambio climático (Eitelberg et al., 2016). ...
Article
Full-text available
En las últimas décadas se ha producido un gran desarrollo de técnicas y modelos para la captura y el análisis de dinámicas de usos del suelo. Dicho interés se demuestra en los diversos programas institucionales y las numerosas investigaciones que se han llevado a cabo con el objeto principal de valorar y abordar un desarrollo sostenible del territorio. La sostenibilidad tiene implicaciones muy diversas, por lo que dichos estudios son también muy variados dependiendo del objetivo que se pretende alcanzar. Los modelos se han hecho cada vez más complejos, desde simples extrapolaciones a modelos estadísticos-matemáticos que compilan varias técnicas. Se presenta una revisión bibliográfica de trabajos sobre modelos de cambios de usos del suelo y de escenarios a futuro. Se definen las grandes tipologías de modelos que existen, las metodologías, factores explicativos, temáticas y modelos empleados, internacionalmente y en España. Se presentan también los grandes problemas y retos que afronta esta materia.
... A particular area of interest has been the development and improvement of predictive simulation models, such as the agent-based model (Matthews et al., 2007;Yuan et al., 2017), the cellular automata model and its evolved models based on grid neighborhood relationship analysis (Grinblat et al., 2016;Van Vliet et al., 2017), or the dynamics of land system model and state-and-transition simulation model based on analyses of changes in land system structures and spatial configuration succession (Wilson et al., 2016;Daniel et al., 2016;Najmuddin et al., 2017). Using these simulation models, it is possible to construct rational scenarios for different sustainability objectives, such as maximizing economic effects (Wu et al., 2012), minimizing pollutant emissions or environmental impacts (Bohnes et al., 2017;Degraeuwe et al., 2017), prioritizing ecological security (Brunner et al., 2017;Eitelberg et al., 2016), limiting climate change and carbon emissions (Anaya-Romero et al., 2015;Prestele et al., 2017), as well as for other sustainability scenarios, such as water resources (Proskuryakova et al., 2018), agricultural production (Chaudhary et al., 2018;Krasa et al., 2010;Van Vliet et al., 2017), or environmental protection (Najmuddin et al.,2017;Zarandian et al., 2017). Obviously, most of these models are based on historical or current scenarios, and they assume consistent historical trajectories and development statuses, which can be problematic for developing countries with large-scale and disorderly land development (Fan et al., 2018). ...
Article
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The imbalance between human activities and Earth's natural surface adversely affects the sustainability of the Earth system. From an understanding of the suitability of surface functions and potential ramifications of policy decisions, this study proposes a sustainable geographical pattern. It introduces a national-to-provincial downscaling approach to optimizing a national-scale zoning scheme that covers 60%–80% of land development and protection functions in China and to creating a major function zoning model. Taking China as the case study area, the following function zones are identified: urbanization zones, food security zones, ecological security zones, and heritage protection zones. This study then proposes a three-dimensional index system and algorithm, develops individual and integrated assessments for the major functions of the land grid, and produces national-scale and provincial-scale major function zoning schemes consisting of county-level administrative cells, the first schemes to create a blueprint for a sustainable national land pattern in China through optimized convergence. In total, 5% of China's land area is covered by urbanized zones, 28% by food security zones, 55% by ecological security zones, and 12% by heritage protection zones. In the future, there will be 805 urbanization administrative units, 790 food security counties, 780 ecological security counties, and 8,151 heritage protection zones. The scheme created using the model developed in this study is 95% consistent with the final scheme implemented by China's central government, and it has a high degree of robustness and precision. It can serve as a reference for scientific research and decision-making concerning sustainable development in developing countries.
... We conduct this analysis for ten major world regions: Canada and United States, China, Europe, India, Latin America, Middle-East and Northern Africa, Oceania, Russia and Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa (see Supplementary Figure S2). These regions represent more or less coherent socio-economic world regions, which have also been used in other studies of land use and land cover change (Eitelberg et al., 2016;van Asselen and Verburg, 2013). For each major world region, we calculate the gross and net change in built-up land area as result of either population change or BPC change. ...
Article
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Globally, urban areas are growing at a faster rate than their population, potentially reducing environmental sustainability due to undesirable land take in (semi)natural and agricultural lands. However, it is unclear to what extent this trend varies locally, which may hamper the formulation and implementation of local-scale policies in the context of the global competition for land. Here, we attribute built-up land change to population dynamics and changes in land take per person, for >75,000 administrative regions worldwide, typically representing municipalities or counties. Results show that changes in land take per person, expressed as the area of built-up land per capita, relate to 38.3%, 49.6%, and 37.5% of the total increase in built-up land during the periods 1975-1990, 1990-2000, and 2000-2015, respectively, but with large local variations. Interestingly, we find that centres of large cities densify in all three periods, while their rural areas show an opposite development, suggesting an urban polarization effect. We also find densification in many regions in the Global South that already have a high population density, leading to potential trade-offs in terms of human wellbeing. Therefore, our work provides novel insights into the debate on sustainable urban development at a global scale.
... Several studies have documented the impact of land use dynamics on the biodiversity (e.g., [47][48][49]). In the study area, the farmers are extremely poor due to the nature of dry farming and the use of land often less than an area of 5 ha. ...
Article
Full-text available
Increasing land use pressure is a primary force for degradation of agricultural areas. The drivers for these pressures are initiated by a series of interconnected processes. This study presents a novel methodology to analyze drivers of changing land use pressure and the effects on society and landscape. The focus was on characterizing these drivers and relate them to land use statistics obtained from geospatial data from the important semiarid Merguellil Wadi between 1976 and 2016. Cause-and-effect relationships between different drivers of land use change were analyzed using the DPSIR approach. Results show that during the 40-year period cultivated land increased and wetland areas decreased substantially. Drivers for change were pressure from economic development, cultivation practices, and hydro-agricultural techniques. This leads to stress on water and soil resulting in soil erosion, poverty increase, and rural exodus. We show that hydro-agricultural techniques adapted to the semiarid climate, allocation of land property rights, resource allocation, and improved marketing of agricultural products can help rural residents to diversify their economy, and thus better preserve the fragile semiarid landscape. Results of this study can be used to ensure sustainable management of water and soil resources in areas with similar climate and socio-economic conditions.
... Several studies have documented the impact of land use dynamics on the biodiversity (e.g., [47][48][49]). In the study area, the farmers are extremely poor due to the nature of dry farming and the use of land often less than an area of 5 ha. ...
Article
Full-text available
Increasing land use pressure is a primary force for degradation of agricultural areas. The drivers for these pressures are initiated by a series of interconnected processes. This study presents a novel methodology to analyze drivers of changing land use pressure and the effects on society and landscape. The focus was on characterizing these drivers and relate them to land use statistics obtained from geospatial data from the important semiarid Merguellil Wadi between 1976 and 2016. Cause-and-effect relationships between different drivers of land use change were analyzed using the DPSIR approach. Results show that during the 40-year period cultivated land increased and wetland areas decreased substantially. Drivers for change were pressure from economic development, cultivation practices, and hydro-agricultural techniques. This leads to stress on water and soil resulting in soil erosion, poverty increase, and rural exodus. We show that hydro-agricultural techniques adapted to the semiarid climate, allocation of land property rights, resource allocation, and improved marketing of agricultural products can help rural residents to diversify their economy, and thus better preserve the fragile semiarid landscape. Results of this study can be used to ensure sustainable management of water and soil resources in areas with similar climate and socio-economic conditions. Keywords: drivers of land use change; DPSIR approach; remote sensing; socioeconomic changes; semiarid Tunisia
... Several studies have documented the impact of land use dynamics on the biodiversity (e.g., [47][48][49]). In the study area, the farmers are extremely poor due to the nature of dry farming and the use of land often less than an area of 5 ha. ...
Article
Full-text available
Increasing land use pressure is a primary force for degradation of agricultural areas. The drivers for these pressures are initiated by a series of interconnected processes. This study presents a novel methodology to analyze drivers of changing land use pressure and the effects on society and landscape. The focus was on characterizing these drivers and relate them to land use statistics obtained from geospatial data from the important semiarid Merguellil Wadi between 1976 and 2016. Cause-and-effect relationships between different drivers of land use change were analyzed using the DPSIR approach. Results show that during the 40-year period cultivated land increased and wetland areas decreased substantially. Drivers for change were pressure from economic development, cultivation practices, and hydro-agricultural techniques. This leads to stress on water and soil resulting in soil erosion, poverty increase, and rural exodus. We show that hydro-agricultural techniques adapted to the semiarid climate, allocation of land property rights, resource allocation, and improved marketing of agricultural products can help rural residents to diversify their economy, and thus better preserve the fragile semiarid landscape. Results of this study can be used to ensure sustainable management of water and soil resources in areas with similar climate and socio-economic conditions. Keywords: drivers of land use change; DPSIR approach; remote sensing; socioeconomic changes; semiarid Tunisia
... The present study has several limitations. First, some assumptions of the scenarios were simplified in this study (Eitelberg et al., 2016;Jin et al., 2019b). For example, the restricted area set under the ESS was dominated by ecological land, which was considered to be the only land that can contribute to ecological conservation and biodiversity protection in this study. ...
Article
Under the influence of local planning and policy implementation, the transformation of regional land-use types leads to an increasing strain on limited land resources and frequent conflicts between various land-use types. However, so far, only a few studies have combined these two in an in-depth analysis. In this study, the CLUMondo model was adopted in Enshi Prefecture, a typical city in the central mountain region of China, to predict the land use pattern under the scenarios of natural development (NGS), economic development (EDS), and ecological security (ESS) in 2025 according to different development priority policies. Furthermore, the indicator model of landscape pattern and ecological risk effects was constructed to identify land use conflicts (LUCs) under multiple scenarios, revealing their spatial distribution, level of conflict, and change characteristics. The results of the study indicate that under the scenarios led by three different development priority policies, the accelerated growth and outward expansion of the built-up land area will occupy a large amount of grassland and cultivated land. The goal of synergistic economic development and ecological environmental protection is achieved only under the ESS. The indicator model classified LUCs in Enshi Prefecture into four levels. The performance and changes of LUCs under different scenarios have their characteristics. The overall performance in order from bad to good is as follows: the NGS > the EDS > the ESS. Therefore, it is necessary to set up differentiated development policies and governance measures based on regional development's current situation and vision to balance different land use needs. The indicator model and simulation method used in this study can effectively reflect the actual status and potential risks of land use in ecologically fragile mountainous areas in China, and provide theoretical basis and technical support for the optimal management of future development and formulation of ecological environmental protection policies in Enshi Prefecture.
... Demands for forest ecosystem services, particularly wood, will likely increase in the future, due to demographic changes, economic growth and the encouraged use of biomass for energy production (Egnell et al., 2011;FAO, 2009FAO, , 2016. Additional pressure on forests can be expected from expanding agricultural areas to fulfill the global food demand (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011) and an increase of land demands for biodiversity protection and climate change mitigation (Eitelberg et al., 2016). To analyze future impacts of land use conversions, land change models are often applied, driven by human demands for food, resources and living space (Brown et al., 2013;Veldkamp and Lambin, 2001). ...
Article
Full-text available
Forests provide numerous ecosystem services, such as timber yields, biodiversity protection and climate change mitigation. The type of management has an effect on the provision of these services. Often the demands for these services can lead to conflict – wood harvest can negatively impact biodiversity and climate change mitigation capacity. Although forest management differences are important, spatially explicit data is lacking, in particular on a global scale. We present here a first systematic approach which integrates existing data to map forest management globally through downscaling national and subnational forest data. In our forest management classification, we distinguished between two levels of forest management, with three categories each. Level 1 comprised primary, naturally regrown and planted forests. Level 2 distinguished between different forest uses. We gathered documented locations, where these forest categories were observed, from the literature and a database on ecological diversity. We then performed multinomial logit regression and estimated the effect of 21 socio-economic and bio-physical predictor variables on the occurrence of a forest category. Model results on significance and effect direction of predictor variables were in line with findings of previous studies. Soil and environmental properties, forest conditions and accessibility are important determinants of the occurrence of forest management types. Based on the model results, likelihood maps were calculated and used to spatially allocate national extents of level 1 and level 2 forest categories. When compared to previous studies, our maps showed higher agreement than random samples. Deviations between observed and predicted plantation locations were mostly below 10 km. Our map provides an estimation of global forest management patterns, enhancing previous methodologies and making the best use of data available. Next to having multiple applications, for example within global conservation planning or climate change mitigation analyses, it visualizes the currently available data on forest management on a global level.
... We used a global land systems map for the year 2000 (Eitelberg et al., 2016;van Asselen and Verburg, 2012) and a global land systems change model (CLUMondo) ( van Asselen and Verburg, 2013) to examine land-use change in focal areas for the individual targets and areas of overlap. Spatially explicit land-use change models are important tools to analyze potential land-use trajectories for ecological analysis (e.g. ...
Preprint
Stemming biodiversity loss requires strategic conservation guided by well-articulated and achievable targets, whether they be proactive (e.g., protect diverse places) or reactive (e.g., protect threatened or declining species). Both types of targets can be effective, but there are trade-offs, especially for broadly-distributed ecosystems or taxa, such as migratory species, a group for which conservation has been challenged by limited knowledge of distributions throughout the annual cycle. We combined fine scale abundance-based distribution models using crowd-sourced data with population trend analyses to evaluate how conservation targets emphasizing proactive (high species diversity) versus reactive (declining species richness and average severity of decline) approaches influenced spatial priorities for the conservation of Neotropical migratory birds (n=112 species), during the non-breeding period in the Western Hemisphere. We also examined how priority landscapes for each target were affected by the magnitude and changes in human footprint, forest cover, and land protection. Spatial priorities were strikingly different when targets emphasized areas of high species diversity (southern Mexico, northern Central America) versus areas with more severe average declines across species (Andean cordilleras of South America). Targeting richness of declining species was most congruent with high diversity. Only a fraction of non-breeding landscapes (0.03%), mostly in southern Central America and northern Colombia, were selected across all targets. Priority areas for the most severe average declines across the community were subject to rapid increases in human footprint, unlike areas selected for high diversity or declining species richness. Our results highlight how even different reactive conservation approaches may emphasize different regions with varying threats and opportunities for conservation. Overlap between areas prioritized for the conservation of high species diversity and declining species richness in the northern Neotropics indicate a potential for conservation to support declining species without compromising conservation of diverse communities of Neotropical migrants. However, our study provides new evidence that rapid land conversion in the northern Andes may drive declines of Neotropical migrants overwintering in the region; conserving these communities of Neotropical migrants will require an emphasis on protecting and restoring habitat in northwest South America.
... For India, use a spatially explicit land use model to assess the effects of biofuel development on land use change. While numerous global studies that include India as a subregion tackle the effects of land use change on either biodiversity (e.g., Delzeit et al., 2017;Kok et al., 2018;Newbold et al., 2016) or carbon storage (e.g., Popp et al., 2014), only a few studies are available that address effects on both impact categories (e.g., Eitelberg et al., 2016;Molotoks et al., 2018). ...
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India has the second largest population in the world and is characterized by a broad diversity in climate, topography, flora, fauna, land use, and socioeconomic conditions. To help ensure food security in the future, agricultural systems will have to respond to global change drivers such as population growth, changing dietary habits, and climate change. However, alterations of how food is produced in the future may conflict with other UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as the protection of land resources and climate change mitigation. It is crucial for decision‐makers to understand potential trade‐offs between these goals to find a balance of human needs and environmental impacts. In this paper, we analyze pathways of agricultural productivity, land use, and land‐cover changes in India until 2030 and their impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and carbon storage. The results show that in order to meet future food production demands, agricultural lands are likely to expand, and existing farmlands need to be intensified. However, both processes will result in biodiversity losses. At the same time, the projections reveal carbon stock increases due to intensification processes and decreases due to conversions of natural land into agriculture. On balance, we find that carbon stocks increase with the scenarios of future agricultural productivity as modeled here. In conclusion, we regard further agricultural intensification as a crucial element to help ensure food security and to slow down the expansion of cropland and pasture. At the same time, policies are required to implement this intensification in a way that minimizes biodiversity losses.
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Land use and land cover (LULC) is one of the most representative criteria used to evaluate the global environment and terrestrial ecosystem change. LULC plays an important role in the ecological and environmental protection of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which is a unique geographical location. The LULC of the QTP has undergone drastic changes during the past few decades due to local planning and policy implementation. Projects such as reforestation and grassland restoration are exerting pressure on land resources and may affect future land use patterns considerably. Current assessments of future land use changes rarely focus on the multiple demands for commodities and services. This study employed the CLUMondo model to predict future land use change trajectories for the period 2010–2030 under three different scenarios. The results indicate that land system changes varied notably under different land management strategies and exhibited large locational discrepancies. Moreover, future land system changes are mainly demonstrated in the form of management intensification under all three scenarios. High demand for livestock in the TREND scenario leads to grassland expansion as well, resulting in corresponding increase in the grassland cover density. Additionally, the expansion of forest area under the FOREST scenario suggests that caution should be exercised during afforestation in the QTP. The results of this study can guide and support future land-use planning, management, and policy formulation in the QTP.
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Land is an integrated and complex system consisting of multiple natural and anthropogenic elements. The long-term exploitation and utilization of land resources by humans have transformed the terrestrial surface of the Earth and profoundly impacted the spatial patterns of regional land use and land cover. Land use/cover (LULC) data have been extensively used to monitor regional land changes and contribute to land use policy making. However, these products objectively reflect only the current coverage and biophysical attributes of the terrestrial surface but fail to characterize the multiple functions and attributes of the human-environment system (HES). In this study, we present an integrated land system classification for representing the regional HES based on multisource datasets that characterize the attributes of land use and management, biodiversity conservation and cultural landscapes. Then, 40 land system types (LSTs) in China were identified using the self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm. According to the land system map, we found significant east–west differentiation in land use intensity, with high-intensive LSTs occurring mostly in eastern provinces and natural and seminatural LSTs dominating in central and western regions. The multifunctional LSTs that host food production, biodiversity conservation and cultural heritage were estimated to cover 32% of the terrestrial area in China. In summary, our results can provide a basis for regional land assessment and help identify the pressures on and threats to the eco-environment. Mapping regional land systems facilitates an in-depth understanding of human-environment interactions at the landscape level and serves as a useful tool in terms of forging sustainable land use strategies.
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Under the influence of various natural and human factors, the relationship between the ecosystem services provided for human beings by a karst ecosystem is becoming increasingly complex, profoundly limiting the effective and sustainable development of the social economy and ecosystem protection in karst areas. Taking Guizhou, China as an example, which includes both karst (including five different landforms) and non-karst area, the study explored and compared the tradeoff and synergy between ecosystem services in both terrain types. The results showed higher change rates of water yield and soil retention in karst areas than those in non-karst areas, with only small differences in the carbon storage and crop production change. The ecosystem service relationships in the karst area from 1995 to 2005 were consistent with the relationships in the non-karst area. However, differences were observed in most of these relationships from 2005 to 2015. The relationships between ecosystem services in different karst landforms from 1995 to 2005 remained the same, but there are differences found in the relationships of ecosystem services from 2005 to 2015. The trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services in the different landforms were closely related to the changes of climate and land use, particularly related to rainfall, rainfall erosivity, farmland, and forestland.
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Rapid land use/cover changes (LUCC) have triggered severe habitat degradation over recent decades. Existing studies mainly focus on how LUCC per se affects habitat quality, while less attention is paid to the integration of LUCC, socio-economic development and climate change as a land use system, and to investigate their synergistic impacts on habitat quality. This study addresses this issue by incorporating a top-down system dynamic model, a bottom-up cellular automata and a habitat quality assessment model. The potential impacts of urban growth, socio-economic development and climate change on habitat quality of Hubei Province, China, were predicted under the four IPCC RCP scenarios. Overall, construction land was predicted to expand fast whereas forested land and cultivated land to shrink significantly from 2015 to 2030, but RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios may maintain higher habitat quality compared with RCP 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Severe habitat degradation is likely to occur in the megacity’s surrounding ecosystems under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, while the degradation is more likely to occur in middle-sized and small cities under RCP 4.5 and 6.0 scenarios. Further, our findings suggest that fixed asset investments and technology innovation play important roles in mitigating the negative impacts of urban and socio-economic development on habitat quality. This study should provide a useful approach for decision makers to design alternative development scenarios and to strike a balance between regional development and habitat conservation.
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The food and land use sector is a major contributor to India's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. On one hand, India is committed to sustainability targets in the AFOLU sectors, on the other, there is little clarity whether these objectives can align with national developmental priorities of food security and environmental protection. This study fills the gap by reviewing multiple corridors to sustain the AFOLU systems through an integrated assessment framework using partial equilibrium modelling. We create three pathways that combine the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with alternative assumptions on diets and mitigation strategies. We analyze our results of the pathways on key indicators of land-use change, GHG emissions, food security, water withdrawals in agriculture, agricultural trade and production diversity. Our findings indicate that dietary shift, improved efficiency in livestock production systems, lower fertilizer use, and higher yield through sustainable intensification can reduce GHG emissions from the AFOLU sectors up to 80% by 2050. Dietary shifts could help meet EAT-Lancet recommended minimum calorie requirements alongside meeting mitigation ambitions. Further, water withdrawals in agriculture would reduce by half by 2050 in the presence of environmental flow protection and mitigation strategies. We conclude by pointing towards specific country level policies on food security, water use and bioenergy and recommend strategic policy design changes that would be needed to embark on such a sustainable pathway.
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Persistent climate impacts in Malaysia pose severe difficulties for smallholder farmers, whose livelihoodsare primarily dependent on resources from agriculture. Adaptation policies are essential to adapt to the Motivation Theory (PMT) was applied to fill this gap as an underpinning for identifying the major contributing factor of farmers' adaptation behaviour to climate effects. A study of 382 smallholder farmers in the Malaysian peninsula was conducted using a multi-stage stratified random sampling technique, revealing that specific farmers were postponing protection actions in the face of serious continuous impact. A low tendency to adopt policies suitable for decreasing climate impacts has been noted. Partial least square (PLS) path design and Bayesian system analysis were used to reveal the responsiveness, perceived severity, cost of reaction, perceived susceptibility, self-efficacy, earnings, and social norms considerably affected the adaptation behaviour. The feeling of controlling climate effects on the farm can increase the adoption of protective measures. Hence, collaborative programmes need to be developed to support farmers, and foster feelings of control over climate change and its impacts.
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Context Constructing a sustainable landscape pattern from the perspective of landscape sustainability is scientifically built on the clarification of the formation mechanisms of landscape services and their relationships. However, the trade-offs and synergies of landscape services have regional heterogeneity, and their influencing factors are largely unknown in polar ecosystem. The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is a unique but fragile ecosystem, and its landscape services are vital components to the sustainability in this specific polar region. Objectives This study sought to understand the landscape service relationships, their dynamics and influencing factors, and achieve a sustainable landscape management in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Methods In this work, we evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution and relationships of multiple landscape services including soil retention (SR), water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), crop supply (CS) and livestock supply (LS). We further identified temperature, elevation, population size, land use and land cover (LULC) as influencing factors on landscape services relationships within specific landscape gradients. Results Our results show that: (1) SR, WY and HQ decreased significantly from the southeast to the northwest. (2) Regulating services-supporting services are mainly identified as synergies, and CS–HQ and CS–LS are manifested as trade-offs. (3) Geophysical factors (temperature, altitude) have impact on the distribution of CS and the trade-off and synergistic dynamics of WY–HQ, increased population size enhances CS–HQ trade-offs, while between supporting and regulating services show trade-offs in high-coverage grassland and unused land. Conclusions The quantitative assessment of landscape services and relationships provides the basis for sustainable landscape management in the context of national policies and climate change.
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Agroforestry can contribute to an increase in tree cover in historically forested tropical landscapes with associated gains in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but only if established on open land instead of underneath a forest canopy. However, declines in yields with increasing shade are common across agroforestry crops, driving shade-tree removal in forest-derived agroforests and hindering tree regrowth in open-land-derived agroforests. To understand trajectories of change in tree cover in forest- and open-land-derived agroforests, and the impacts of tree cover on vanilla yields, we studied 209 vanilla agroforests along an 88-year chronosequence in Madagascar. Additionally, we used remotely sensed canopy cover data to investigate tree cover change in the agricultural landscape. We found yields to vary widely but independently of canopy cover and land-use history (forest- vs. open-land-derived), averaging at 154.6 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ (SD = 186.9). Furthermore, we found that forest- and open-land-derived vanilla agroforests gained canopy cover over time, but that only open-land-derived agroforests gained canopy height. Canopy cover increased also at the landscape scale: areas in the agricultural landscape with medium initial canopy cover gained 6.4% canopy cover over 10 years, but canopy cover decreased in areas with high initial canopy cover. These opposing trends suggest tree cover rehabilitation across areas covered by vanilla agroforests, whereas remnant forest fragments in the agricultural landscape were transformed or degraded. Our results indicate that yield-neutral tree rehabilitation through open-land-derived agroforestry could, if coupled with effective forest protection, provide benefits for both ecosystem functions and agricultural production in a smallholder-dominated agricultural landscape.
Thesis
Energy systems need decarbonisation in order to limit global warming to within safe limits. Unfettered climate change has the potential to greatly exacerbate species extinctions already much higher than historic baselines. Renewable energy technologies, especially solar photovoltaic and wind, have the potential to greatly aid in this decarbonisation but there are concerns as to the land required when compared to conventional, energy-dense, fuels. This is especially true given the urgent need to demarcate more land for biodiversity conservation. However, attempts to evidence these land concerns are hindered by lack of quality spatial data. This thesis shows, using newly generated spatially explicit data, that the expansion of renewable energy and biodiversity conservation do not necessarily conflict. I find, using a novel global, open access, harmonised dataset of onshore wind and solar photovoltaic installations, that although there are currently numerous overlaps with areas of conservation importance worldwide, echoing previous studies, when historic distributions are taken into account there is no evidence that energy-biodiversity conflict is set to increase in the future. I also find that although priority areas for biodiversity conservation have been identified well in prior work, identification of priority areas for renewable energy needs improvement. The results presented here suggest that more thoughtful planning of renewable energy can ensure no more potential impact on biodiversity than expected under a business as usual development scenario. I anticipate the data will support more research into what drives renewable energy siting, as well as providing a potential avenue for civil society to assess governmental progress towards clean energy objectives, for example Target 7.1 and 7.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, the methods here provide a framework into which local impacts of renewable energy on biodiversity can be incorporated when they are better known.
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Based on multi-temporal Landsat images from 1996 to 2014, a hierarchical strategy for land use classification has been presented. The land use dynamic index, conversion matrix and spatial center have been used to quantitatively analyze the spatial–temporal dynamics of land cover in Binzhou urban area. Per results, the overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of hierarchical classification method have been found to be 93.82% and 0.92, respectively, indicating that the method used for land cover classification was feasible. Per findings from the urban area under study, during 1996 to 2014, the cropland area decreased constantly, forestland and water body area decreased at first and then increased, while the built-up land area increased constantly. The major pattern emerging from the land cover change was represented by the conversions of cropland to built-up land. As a result of hydraulic and landscape engineering, gains in forestland and water body were more than the corresponding losses. The area gained by forestland reached peak in the period of 2005 to 2009, while the area gained by water body peaked in the period of 2001 to 2005. Moreover, spatial centers of cropland and built-up land had been located on the southwest side and the east side of the city square, respectively. Per findings, spatial center of cropland was moving away from the City Square in southwestern direction by about 634.30 m, while the built-up land extended to the west, and the spatial center of the built-up land moved towards the southwest as well by about 1575.84 m. The movement of built-up land spatial center was closely related to the development and construction of west urban area.
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Modeling future change to land‐use and land cover is done as part of many local and global scenario environmental assessments. Nevertheless, there are still considerable challenges related to simulating land‐use responses to climate change. Mostly, climate change is considered by changing the temperature and precipitation, affecting the spatial distribution and productivity of future land‐use and land cover as result of differential changes in growing conditions. Other climate change effects, such as changes in the water resources needed to support future cropland expansion and intensification are often neglected. In this study, we demonstrate how including different types of responses to climate change influences the simulation of future changes to land‐use and land cover, and land management. We study the influence of including different climate change effects in land system modeling step by step. The results show that land system models need to include numerous simultaneous climate change effects, particularly when looking at adaptation options such as implementing irrigation. Otherwise, there is a risk of biased impact estimates leading either to under or overestimation of the consequences of land‐use change, including land degradation. Spatial land system models therefore need to be developed accounting for a multitude of climate change impacts, uncertainties related to climate data, and an assessment of the sensitivity of the outcomes towards the decisions of modelers on representing climate change impacts.
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How to feed, house, clothe and power 11 billion of us without eliminating very many species and wrecking Earth's climate is perhaps this century's greatest challenge. We must obviously strive to curb growth in resource-intensive demand, but we also need to identify production systems that meet people's needs at least overall cost to nature. The land-sharing/sparing concept provides a quantitative framework for doing this, centred around the principle that generating meaningful insights requires comparing alternatives that are matched in terms of overall production. Applications of this framework to >2500 individually assessed species of vertebrates, plants and insects across five continents show that most species decline under farming, and that most would fare least badly under a land-sparing approach – with high-yield production meeting demand in a relatively small, farmed area, freeing-up space for conservation of intact habitats elsewhere in the landscape. However, important questions remain around how to deliver high yields sustainably, and how to ensure high-yield farming does indeed spare natural habitat. The framework is increasingly being applied in other domains too – including urban planning, recreation, forestry and fisheries – where it has the potential to shed light on long-running debates about whether nature would prefer us to concentrate our impact or spread it more lightly but widely. The realization that conservation cannot be delivered without simultaneously considering how humanity meets its needs in these and other sectors is of particular significance as policymakers meet to establish global environmental targets through to 2030 and beyond.
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In the past decades, China has undergone dramatic land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Such changes are expected to continue and profoundly affect our environment. To navigate future uncertainties toward sustainability, increasing efforts have been invested in projecting China’s future LULC following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and/or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To supplements existing datasets with a high spatial resolution, comprehensive pathway coverage, and delicate account for urban land change, here we present a 1-km gridded LULC dataset for China under 24 comprehensive SSP-RCP scenarios covering 2020–2100 at 10-year intervals. Our approach is to integrate the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. This dataset shows good performance compared to remotely sensed CCI-LC data and is generally spatio-temporally consistent with the Land Use Harmonization version-2 dataset. This new dataset (available at 10.6084/m9.figshare.14776128.v1 ) provides a valuable alternative for multi-scenario-based research with high spatial resolution, such as earth system modeling, ecosystem services, and carbon neutrality.
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Habitat loss and biotic homogenisation are undermining the stable supply of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) that underpin the long-term productivity and resilience in farmed landscapes. Growing demand for land-based products, and global ambitions for climate and area-based protection are likely to increase land competition, which could further drive intensification and landscape simplification. Yet, little is known about the repercussions of such global land-use transitions for key regulating NCP in farmed landscapes. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we analyse how global land-use dynamics could drive fine-scale changes in landscape structure, pollination, and soil erosion across different land-use futures. Here we show that, if not addressed, increased land competition and concurrent landscape-scale changes could reinforce global negative trends for key regulating NCP. However, we also find that global efforts towards land carbon uptake and biodiversity conservation could be augmented to produce co-benefits in agricultural settings. Our results indicate that integrating at least 20 % (semi-)natural habitat into farmed landscapes would not cause trade-offs of carbon emissions or natural land conversion, despite shifts in spatial land-use patterns. Our findings underline the importance of considering landscape-scale repercussions while assessing changes in multiple material and regulating NCP across different land-use futures.
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Global scenario-based modelling efforts to support biodiversity policies typically consider agriculture only as a pressure factor. Current scenarios typically include the expansion of protected areas combined with higher agricultural productivity (as in land sparing) for reducing biodiversity loss. We argue in favour of a broader perspective on farming practices in scenario-based biodiversity modelling and, specifically, for scenario studies to include mixed multifunctional systems, applicable in land-sharing approaches. The increasing availability of monitoring data and modelling capacity opens up opportunities for more comprehensive quantification of the intricate network of relationships between agricultural land management, biodiversity and ecosystem services and, thus, enables a more balanced evaluation of the benefits and trade-offs of land sparing and land sharing and their intermediates.
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Agroforestry can contribute to an increase in tree cover in historically forested tropical landscapes with associated gains in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but only if established on open land instead of inside forest. However, trade-offs between shade and crop yields are common across many agroforestry crops, driving shade-tree loss in forest-derived agroforests and hindering tree rehabilitation in open-land-derived agroforests. To investigate whether this common dynamic plays a role in vanilla agroforests, we studied 209 vanilla agroforests along an 88-year chronosequence in Madagascar and used remotely-sensed canopy cover data to investigate tree rehabilitation in the agricultural landscape. We found yields to vary widely but independently of canopy cover and land-use history (forest- vs. open-land-derived), averaging at 154.6 kg ha-1 yr-1 (SD = 186.9). Furthermore, we found that open-land-derived vanilla agroforests gained 32.6% canopy cover over 60 years, whereas forest-derived agroforests only gained 14.2%. Canopy cover increased also at the landscape scale: Areas in the agricultural landscape with medium initial canopy cover gained 6.4% canopy cover from 2000 to 2010, but areas with high initial canopy cover lost canopy cover. These opposing trends suggest tree rehabilitation across areas covered by vanilla agroforests, whereas remnant forest fragments in the agricultural landscape were transformed or degraded. Overall, forest-dependent ecosystem functions may thus suffer while functions provided by areas with medium canopy cover may benefit. Our results suggest that yield-neutral tree rehabilitation through agroforestry could, if coupled with effective forest protection, provide a win-win situation for ecosystem functions and agricultural production in smallholder-dominated agricultural landscapes.
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Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two- to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation.
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Humans have fundamentally altered global patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Surprisingly, existing systems for representing these global patterns, including biome classifications, either ignore humans altogether or simplify human influence into, at most, four categories. Here, we present the first characterization of terrestrial biomes based on global patterns of sustained, direct human interaction with ecosystems. Eighteen "anthropogenic biomes" were identified through empirical analysis of global population, land use, and land cover. More than 75% of Earth's ice-free land showed evidence of alteration as a result of human residence and land use, with less than a quarter remaining as wildlands, supporting just 11% of terrestrial net primary production. Anthropogenic biomes offer a new way forward by acknowledging human influence on global ecosystems and moving us toward models and investigations of the terrestrial biosphere that integrate human and ecological systems.
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We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regards to recent trends in global GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU), including global emissions updates to 2012. By using all three available AFOLU datasets employed for analysis in the IPCC AR5, rather than just one as done in the IPCC AR5 WGIII Summary for Policy Makers, our analyses point to a down-revision of global AFOLU shares of total anthropogenic emissions, while providing important additional information on sub-sectoral trends. Our findings confirm that the share of AFOLU emissions to the anthropogenic total declined over time. They indicate a decadal average of 28.7±1.5% in the 1990s, 23.6±2.1% in the 2000s, and an annual value of 21.2±1.5% in 2010. The IPCC AR5 had indicated a 24% share in 2010. In contrast to previous decades, when emissions from land use (land use, land use change and forestry, including deforestation) were significantly larger than those from agriculture (crop and livestock production), in 2010 agriculture was the larger component, contributing 11.2±0.4% of total GHG emissions, compared to 10.0±1.2% of the land use sector. Deforestation was responsible for only 8% of total anthropogenic emissions in 2010, compared to 12% in the 1990s. Since 2010, the last year assessed by the IPCC AR5, new FAO estimates indicate that land use emissions have remained stable, at about 4.8 Gt CO2eq yr-1 in 2012. Emissions minus removals have also remained stable, at 3.2 Gt CO2eq yr-1 in 2012. By contrast, agriculture emissions have continued to grow, at roughly 1% annually, and remained larger than the land use sector, reaching 5.4 Gt CO2eq yr-1 in 2012. These results are useful to further inform the current climate policy debate on land use, suggesting that as many efforts and resources should be directed to agriculture mitigation in the coming years as they have been devoted to REDD+ in the past decade.
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Governments have committed to conserving ≥17% of terrestrial and ≥10% of marine environments globally, especially “areas of particular importance for biodiversity” through “ecologically representative” Protected Area (PA) systems or other “area-based conservation measures,” while individual countries have committed to conserve 3–50% of their land area. We estimate that PAs currently cover 14.6% of terrestrial and 2.8% of marine extent, but 59–68% of ecoregions, 77–78% of important sites for biodiversity, and 57% of 25,380 species have inadequate coverage. The existing 19.7 million km2 terrestrial PA network needs only 3.3 million km2 to be added to achieve 17% terrestrial coverage. However, it would require nearly doubling to achieve, cost-efficiently, coverage targets for all countries, ecoregions, important sites, and species. Poorer countries have the largest relative shortfalls. Such extensive and rapid expansion of formal PAs is unlikely to be achievable. Greater focus is therefore needed on alternative approaches, including community- and privately managed sites and other effective area-based conservation measures.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regard to recent trends in global GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU), including global emission updates to 2012. Using all three available AFOLU datasets employed for analysis in the IPCC AR5, rather than just one as done in the IPCC AR5 WGIII Summary for Policy Makers, our analyses point to a down-revision of global AFOLU shares of total anthropogenic emissions, while providing important additional information on subsectoral trends. Our findings confirm that the share of AFOLU emissions to the anthropogenic total declined over time. They indicate a decadal average of 28.7 ± 1.5% in the 1990s and 23.6 ± 2.1% in the 2000s and an annual value of 21.2 ± 1.5% in 2010. The IPCC AR5 had indicated a 24% share in 2010. In contrast to previous decades, when emissions from land use (land use, land use change and forestry, including deforestation) were significantly larger than those from agriculture (crop and livestock production), in 2010 agriculture was the larger component, contributing 11.2 ± 0.4% of total GHG emissions, compared to 10.0 ± 1.2% of the land use sector. Deforestation was responsible for only 8% of total anthropogenic emissions in 2010, compared to 12% in the 1990s. Since 2010, the last year assessed by the IPCC AR5, new FAO estimates indicate that land use emissions have remained stable, at about 4.8 Gt CO2 eq yr−1 in 2012. Emissions minus removals have also remained stable, at 3.2 Gt CO2 eq yr−1 in 2012. By contrast, agriculture emissions have continued to grow, at roughly 1% annually, and remained larger than the land use sector, reaching 5.4 Gt CO2 eq yr−1 in 2012. These results are useful to further inform the current climate policy debate on land use, suggesting that more efforts and resources should be directed to further explore options for mitigation in agriculture, much in line with the large efforts devoted to REDD+ in the past decade.
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The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also by increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creating negative CO2 emissions. In this paper, we investigate two land-based climate change mitigation strategies for carbon removal: (1) afforestation and (2) bioenergy in combination with carbon capture and storage technology (bioenergy CCS). In our approach, a global tax on GHG emissions aimed at ambitious climate change mitigation incentivizes land-based mitigation by penalizing positive and rewarding negative CO2 emissions from the land-use system. We analyze afforestation and bioenergy CCS as standalone and combined mitigation strategies. We find that afforestation is a cost-efficient strategy for carbon removal at relatively low carbon prices, while bioenergy CCS becomes competitive only at higher prices. According to our results, cumulative carbon removal due to afforestation and bioenergy CCS is similar at the
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A description of the methods used to produces FAO's Gridded Livestock of the World datasets, along with illustrations of the potential and actual uses of these data.
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The recent 70% decline in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon suggests that it is possible to manage the advance of a vast agricultural frontier. Enforcement of laws, interventions in soy and beef supply chains, restrictions on access to credit, and expansion of protected areas appear to have contributed to this decline, as did a decline in the demand for new deforestation. The supply chain interventions that fed into this deceleration are precariously dependent on corporate risk management, and public policies have relied excessively on punitive measures. Systems for delivering positive incentives for farmers to forgo deforestation have been designed but not fully implemented. Territorial approaches to deforestation have been effective and could consolidate progress in slowing deforestation while providing a framework for addressing other important dimensions of sustainable development.
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Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient-measured in "total abatement calorie cost"-than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.
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• Context Projecting changes in forest productivity in Europe is crucial for adapting forest management to changing environmental conditions. • Aims The objective of this paper is to project forest productivity changes under different climate change scenarios at a large number of sites in Europe with a stand-scale process-based model. • Methods We applied the process-based forest growth model 4C at 132 typical forest sites of important European tree species in ten environmental zones using climate change scenarios from three different climate models and two different assumptions about CO2 effects on productivity. • Results This paper shows that future forest productivity will be affected by climate change and that these effects depend strongly on the climate scenario used and the persistence of CO2 effects. We find that productivity increases in Northern Europe, increases or decreases in Central Europe, and decreases in Southern Europe. This geographical pattern is mirrored by the responses of the individual tree species. The productivity of Scots pine and Norway spruce, mostly located in central and northern Europe, increases while the productivity of Common beech and oak in southern regions decreases. It is important to note that we consider the physiological response to climate change excluding disturbances or management. • Conclusions Different climate change scenarios and assumptions about the persistence of CO2 effects lead to uncertain projections of future forest productivity. These uncertainties need to be integrated into forest management planning and adaptation of forest management to climate change using adaptive management frameworks.
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Negative impacts of forestry on biodiversity have been addressed through environmental considerations held within legislation and various forest certification protocols. We used Sweden as a case study where a long history of forestry aiming at sustained yield of wood fiber has resulted in landscapes with low quantities of old growth structures e.g. dead wood and old forest, but where environmental considerations have been implemented during the last two decades. We reviewed the scientific literature for studies evaluating the environmental considerations included in the Swedish Forestry Act and FSC, compared individual metrics and benchmarks, identified thresholds as well as identified specific gaps missing from current regulations (missing factors/areas of improvement). All environmental considerations listed in the Swedish Forestry Act were found to be relevant for conservation. The strongest scientific support for their importance in maintaining biodiversity in managed landscapes was found for dead wood, tree retention and habitats for sensitive species, including edge zones and woodland key habitats. However, suggested levels fall below identified thresholds. Retention of small habitat patches can provide a life-boat function for some red-listed species, but the long term survival of these populations is uncertain. Tree species composition was also found be important, and in the boreal region the proportion of deciduous trees is a key factor. For some environmental considerations, there is too limited information from the scientific literature to evaluate their importance in relation to the current levels, e.g. consequences of clear-cut size and shape, and forest roads. Similarly, damage to soil and water affect biodiversity through drainage, leakage and sedimentation, but the effects vary considerably and are often diffuse. There is a need to better adjust the levels of environmental considerations above thresholds from empirical studies. However, it will be impossible within current regulatory framework to maintain all species in all landscapes. Therefore, the allocation of environmental consideration among stands, landscapes and regions need to be considered. Evenly dispersed retention might always stay below suggested thresholds with limited contribution to ecologically sustainable forest ecosystems. More flexibility, where the sum of conservation measures in the landscape as opposed to measures in individual stands are considered, would result in better conservation strategies. This would mean that particular landscapes could be more intensively managed and in other more focus on biodiversity conservation could be taken.
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This book (Milieu- en Natuurplanbureau) concentrates on the data and models used in IMAGE 2.4, illustrated with a number of applications
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In recent years, international climate policy has increasingly focused on limiting temperature rise, as opposed to achieving greenhouse-gas-concentration- related objectives. The agreements reached at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Cancun in 2010 recognize that countries should take urgent action to limit the increase in global average temperature to less than 2C relative to pre-industrial levels. If this is to be achieved, policymakers need robust information about the amounts of future greenhouse-gas emissions that are consistent with such temperature limits. This, in turn, requires an understanding of both the technical and economic implications of reducing emissions and the processes that link emissions to temperature. Here we consider both of these aspects by reanalysing a large set of published emission scenarios from integrated assessment models in a risk-based climate modelling framework. We find that in the set of scenarios with a 'likely' (greater than 66%) chance of staying below 2C, emissions peak between 2010 and 2020 and fall to a median level of 44 Gt of CO 2 equivalent in 2020 (compared with estimated median emissions across the scenario set of 48 Gt of CO 2 equivalent in 2010). Our analysis confirms that if the mechanisms needed to enable an early peak in global emissions followed by steep reductions are not put in place, there is a significant risk that the 2C target will not be achieved.
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Summary Offsets (also known as mitigation banks, compensatory habitat, set-asides) is a policy instrument recently introduced in several States in Australia to permit some land clearing while striving for no net loss in the extent and condition of native vegetation overall. Offsetting is criticized with respect to the amount of gain required to compensate for losses from clearing, the equivalence of losses and gains, the time lag between losses and gains and a poor record of compliance. Despite these criticisms, we conclude that offsetting is a useful policy instrument while governments continue to permit some clearing of native vegetation. However, offsets will only contribute to no net loss if (i) clearing is restricted to vegetation that is simplified enough so that its functions can be restored elsewhere with confidence or clearing is restricted to vegetation that is unlikely to persist and is not practicable to restore irrespective of clearing; (ii) any temporary loss in habitat between clearing and the maturation of an offset, or differences between the habitat lost from clearing and gained through an offset, does not represent significant risk to a species, population or ecosystem process; (iii) there will be gains of sufficient magnitude on the offset site to compensate for losses from clearing; (iv) best practice adaptive management is applied to offsets; (v) offsets are in place for at least the same duration as the impacts from clearing; and (vi) there is adequate compliance. Land clearing with offsets outside these parameters is inconsistent with ‘no net loss’.
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Aim To map and characterize anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere before and during the Industrial Revolution, from 1700 to 2000.Location Global.Methods Anthropogenic biomes (anthromes) were mapped for 1700, 1800, 1900 and 2000 using a rule-based anthrome classification model applied to gridded global data for human population density and land use. Anthropogenic transformation of terrestrial biomes was then characterized by map comparisons at century intervals.Results In 1700, nearly half of the terrestrial biosphere was wild, without human settlements or substantial land use. Most of the remainder was in a seminatural state (45%) having only minor use for agriculture and settlements. By 2000, the opposite was true, with the majority of the biosphere in agricultural and settled anthromes, less than 20% seminatural and only a quarter left wild. Anthropogenic transformation of the biosphere during the Industrial Revolution resulted about equally from land-use expansion into wildlands and intensification of land use within seminatural anthromes. Transformation pathways differed strongly between biomes and regions, with some remaining mostly wild but with the majority almost completely transformed into rangelands, croplands and villages. In the process of transforming almost 39% of earth's total ice-free surface into agricultural land and settlements, an additional 37% of global land without such use has become embedded within agricultural and settled anthromes.Main conclusions Between 1700 and 2000, the terrestrial biosphere made the critical transition from mostly wild to mostly anthropogenic, passing the 50% mark early in the 20th century. At present, and ever more in the future, the form and process of terrestrial ecosystems in most biomes will be predominantly anthropogenic, the product of land use and other direct human interactions with ecosystems. Ecological research and conservation efforts in all but a few biomes would benefit from a primary focus on the novel remnant, recovering and managed ecosystems embedded within used lands.
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The most unique feature of Earth is the existence of life, and the most extraordinary feature of life is its diversity. Approximately 9 million types of plants, animals, protists and fungi inhabit the Earth. So, too, do 7 billion people. Two decades ago, at the first Earth Summit, the vast majority of the world's nations declared that human actions were dismantling the Earth's ecosystems, eliminating genes, species and biological traits at an alarming rate. This observation led to the question of how such loss of biological diversity will alter the functioning of ecosystems and their ability to provide society with the goods and services needed to prosper.
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Croplands cover ∼15 million km2 of the planet and provide the bulk of the food and fiber essential to human well-being. Most global land cover data sets from satellites group croplands into just a few categories, thereby excluding information that is critical for answering key questions ranging from biodiversity conservation to food security to biogeochemical cycling. Information about agricultural land use practices like crop selection, yield, and fertilizer use is even more limited. Here we present land use data sets created by combining national, state, and county level census statistics with a recently updated global data set of croplands on a 5 min by 5 min (∼10 km by 10 km) latitude-longitude grid. The resulting land use data sets depict circa the year 2000 the area (harvested) and yield of 175 distinct crops of the world. We aggregate these individual crop maps to produce novel maps of 11 major crop groups, crop net primary production, and four physiologically based crop types: annua
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Agricultural activities have dramatically altered our planet's land surface. To understand the extent and spatial distribution of these changes, we have developed a new global data set of croplands and pastures circa 2000 by combining agricultural inventory data and satellite-derived land cover data. The agricultural inventory data, with much greater spatial detail than previously available, is used to train a land cover classification data set obtained by merging two different satellite-derived products (Boston University's MODIS-derived land cover product and the GLC2000 data set). Our data are presented at 5 min (similar to 10 km) spatial resolution in longitude by longitude, have greater accuracy than previously available, and for the first time include statistical confidence intervals on the estimates. According to the data, there were 15.0 (90% confidence range of 12.2-17.1) million km 2 of cropland (12% of the Earth's ice-free land surface) and 28.0 (90% confidence range of 23.6-30.0) million km 2 of pasture (22%) in the year 2000.
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The question of how to meet rising food demand at the least cost to biodiversity requires the evaluation of two contrasting alternatives: land sharing, which integrates both objectives on the same land; and land sparing, in which high-yield farming is combined with protecting natural habitats from conversion to agriculture. To test these alternatives, we compared crop yields and densities of bird and tree species across gradients of agricultural intensity in southwest Ghana and northern India. More species were negatively affected by agriculture than benefited from it, particularly among species with small global ranges. For both taxa in both countries, land sparing is a more promising strategy for minimizing negative impacts of food production, at both current and anticipated future levels of production.