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Measuring and Increasing Adoption Rates of Cookstoves in a Humanitarian Crisis

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Traditional smoky cooking fires are one of today's greatest environmental threats to human life. These fires, used by 40% of the global population, cause 3.9 million annual premature deaths. "Clean cookstoves" have potential to improve this situation; however, most cookstove programs do not employ objective measurement of adoption to inform design, marketing, subsidies, finance, or dissemination practices. Lack of data prevents insights and may contribute to consistently low adoption rates. In this study, we used sensors and surveys to measure objective versus self-reported adoption of freely-distributed cookstoves in an internally displaced persons camp in Darfur, Sudan. Our data insights demonstrate how to effectively measure and promote adoption, especially in a humanitarian crisis. With sensors, we measured that 71% of participants were cookstove "users" compared to 95% of respondents reporting the improved cookstove was their "primary cookstove." No line of survey questioning, whether direct or indirect, predicted sensor-measured usage. For participants who rarely or never used their cookstoves after initial dissemination ("non-users"), we found significant increases in adoption after a simple followup survey (p = 0.001). The followup converted 83% of prior "non-users" to "users" with average daily adoption of 1.7 cooking hours over 2.2 meals. This increased adoption, which we posit resulted from cookstove familiarization and social conformity, was sustained for a 2-week observation period post intervention.
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Measuring and Increasing Adoption Rates of Cookstoves in a
Humanitarian Crisis
Daniel L. Wilson,*
,
Jeremy Coyle,
Angeli Kirk,
Javier Rosa,
Omnia Abbas,
Mohammed Idris Adam,
§
and Ashok J. Gadgil
,
University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, United States
Potential Energy, Berkeley, California 94704, United States
§
Al-Fashir University, Al-Fashir, North Darfur, Sudan
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720, United States
*
SSupporting Information
ABSTRACT: Traditional smoky cooking res are one of todays greatest environ-
mental threats to human life. These res, used by 40% of the global population, cause
3.9 million annual premature deaths. Clean cookstoveshave potential to improve this
situation; however, most cookstove programs do not employ objective measurement of
adoption to inform design, marketing, subsidies, nance, or dissemination practices.
Lack of data prevents insights and may contribute to consistently low adoption rates.
In this study, we used sensors and surveys to measure objective versus self-reported
adoption of freely-distributed cookstoves in an internally displaced persons camp in
Darfur, Sudan. Our data insights demonstrate how to eectively measure and promote
adoption, especially in a humanitarian crisis. With sensors, we measured that 71% of participants were cookstove users
compared to 95% of respondents reporting the improved cookstove was their primary cookstove.No line of survey
questioning, whether direct or indirect, predicted sensor-measured usage. For participants who rarely or never used their
cookstoves after initial dissemination (non-users), we found signicant increases in adoption after a simple followup survey (p
= 0.001). The followup converted 83% of prior non-usersto userswith average daily adoption of 1.7 cooking hours over 2.2
meals. This increased adoption, which we posit resulted from cookstove familiarization and social conformity, was sustained for a
2-week observation period post intervention.
INTRODUCTION
Since the beginning of the modern Darfur conict in 2003,
violence has forced Darfuri families from their homes. Many
displaced families have emigrated from their homelands to large
Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps; current UN gures
estimate 2.5 million IDPs in Darfur.
1
In 2005, The University of
California, Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Labo-
ratory began a joint eort to design a fuel ecient cookstove
for use in Darfuri IDP camps. The impetus for the Berkeley-
Darfur Stove (BDS) was to reduce the burden and danger IDP
women face when acquiring fuel in and around the camps. The
BDSs improved thermal eciency allows customers to cook
food using less fuel than a traditional three-stone re (TSF)
which is locally known as a ladaya.
2
As of June 2016, 42,000
BDSs have been distributed to households in Darfur. In this
and other studies, the average household size measured was
appoximately 7.
3
With the 44,284 BDS units disseminated as of
Potential Energys 2015 Impact Report,
4
the BDS is estimated
to have reached 310 000 individuals.
Objective monitoring and evaluation is a major barrier to
quantifying the impacts of clean cookstoveslike the BDS. For
decades, clean cookstoves have promised to reduce the global
burden of disease and drudgery attributable to traditional
cooking. Air pollution from traditional cooking methods is the
worlds largest environmental health risk factortraditional
biomass-fueled cooking is linked with 3.9 million annual
premature deaths.
5,6
Clean cookstovespromise is to displace
traditional smoky biomass res (used by almost half the worlds
population) with cleaner combustion.
7
However, positive
outcomes of clean cookstove interventions are rarely signicant
or sustained.
8
This is because clean cookstoves have not been
widely adopted and they have not suciently displaced
traditional cookstoves (e.g., stove stacking).
9
Stove Use Monitor (SUM) sensors have the potential to
objectively inform implementation agencies, policy makers, and
analysts about eld performance and adoption of cook-
stoves.
914
Many stakeholder agencies are eager to understand
which cookstoves, training programs, and marketing methods
are eective. However, most cookstove adoption studies use
unreliable survey data subject to three problematic sources of
error: social desirability or courtesy bias where respondents
over-report idealbehaviors, recall bias when respondents
cannot accurately recall past behavior, and observation bias (the
Received: June 10, 2016
Revised: July 7, 2016
Accepted: July 7, 2016
Published: July 20, 2016
Article
pubs.acs.org/est
© 2016 American Chemical Society 8393 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b02899
Environ. Sci. Technol. 2016, 50, 83938399
Hawthorne Eect).
9,1519
By contrast, SUMs provide
accurate information about adoption and may eventually
improve cookshealth and economic outcomes by creating
tighter and more accurate feedback loop between stakeholders
in the dissemination space and the customers who use clean
cookstoves. If used eectively, SUMs data can inform
dissemination stakeholders about which cookstoves are well-
adopted, and this information could lead to better cookstoves
reaching more customers.
Even when self-reported data is unbiased on average,
measurement error in dependent variables (say, expenditures
or frequency of symptoms) reduces the precision of estimates,
giving reduced statistical power. Unbiased measurement error
in independent variables (for example, usage rates) leads to
attenuation biasthat pushes impact estimates toward zero.
20
This eect only worsens when users systematically overstate
adoption. Unlike surveys, sensors are unbiased, discrete, and
long-lasting. Objective sensor data lead to improvements in our
understanding of cookstove adoption and enables insights
about cookstove designs, training, or marketing techniques that
may increase utilization.
In this study, we add critical information to the small pool of
studies objectively measuring cookstove adoption with
sensors.
9,1214,21,22
To our knowledge, other groups have not
analyzed adoption of cookstove technologies in an ongoing
humanitarian crisis. Evaluation of technologies and techniques
that improve living conditions and environmental conditions in
humanitarian crises is important but inadequately addressed in
the scientic literature. Crises are important case studies
because they are regrettably common, are a frequent target
market for cookstove dissemination programs, and represent
unique social and economic contexts that make non-crises
insights potentially nontransferable. In prior studies, sensor data
has been compared with survey data.
10,13
In Thomas et al.
2013, sensors measured 40% lower use than surveys, but in
Ruiz-Mercado et al. 2013, surveys were found to generally be
reliable predictors of sensor-measured behavior. This contra-
diction points to the need for additional data about what
circumstances result in reliable survey data. We extend the
literature by testing whether multiple surveying techniques can
be combined to better predict sensor-measured behavior.
Additionally, we present a novel framework for categorizing
stove recipients as usersor non-usersand demonstrate the
value of this delineation in revealing data insights. Unlike prior
work, this study rigorously evaluates causes of sensor damage
and loss, and we perform sensitivity analysis for lost data. We
also present the rst study to our knowledge quantifying the
impacts of social pressure on cookstove adoption (courtesy
use), and we show an example of how sensors revealed user-
generated innovations. Lastly, and most importantly, this study
adds meaningful data to the literature by assessing the impact of
enumeration activitiesor the anticipation thereofon cook-
stove adoption behavior, and we reveal the potential for low-
cost strategies to dramatically increase cookstove adoption.
DESIGN AND METHODS
A detailed description of the design and methods of this
experiment is discussed in prior work
14
and in the Supporting
Information (SI). For clarity, a brief overview follows.
This work took place in the Al-Salam IDP Camp outside Al-
Fashir, North Darfur, Sudan. Sustainable Action Group (SAG),
a Sudanese nonprot that assembles and distributes the BDS in
IDP camps, selected participants for this study in the usual
procedure for BDS dissemination: 180 participants were
selected to receive free BDSs by chief camp administrators
(Omdas) who selected study participants from a compre-
hensive list of inhabitants. Selected participants were limited to
ve of the campsAdministrative Unitsrepresenting the
geographical and cultural emigration origin of IDPs. In
compliance with the University of California, Berkeleys
Institutional Review Board approval (CPHS #2013-03-5132),
participants were told they would be taking part in a study of
the BDS to improve future BDSsand that a temperature
sensor would be attached to the BDS. However, information
about the tracking of cooking behaviors was withheld. All ve
Units participated in a baseline and followup survey, and three
units participated in an additional second followup.
The ve Units, each with 36 participants, received their BDSs
and took a baseline survey between July 29th and August
second of 2013. Serious security concerns precluded enumer-
ation stafrom travel and extended stay in the camps, so the
baseline survey and all subsequent interactions took place at
midday in a womens center in Al-Salam Camp. A phased
rollout of the followup survey was conducted four to 12 weeks,
depending on Unit, after the baseline. All women were supplied
with the date, time, and location of their followup. Women
were instructed to bring their cookstoves to the Womens
Center for the followup survey. On the appointed day, a survey
was conducted and SUMs were removed from cookstoves. Data
were discretely downloaded from SUMs using a laptop
computer. For three of the ve Units, SUMs were reattached
and a second followup was conducted 2 weeks after the rst
followup. The second followup also required bringing the
cookstove to the Womens Center so SUMs could be removed,
but no additional surveys were conducted. In all cases, women
brought their BDSs home from the followup survey(s) and
owned the stoves indenitely thereafter. Additional details
about scheduling can be found in the SI.
Building on the methods of others,
9,12,13,2123
we utilized
Maxims DS1922E-series iButtons as temperature data loggers.
SI Figure S1 shows the mounting location of SUMs which was
chosen by laboratory cooking experiments to maximize signal
(temperature) while still preventing overheating of the sensor.
Surveys in this study were conducted by a team of two
redundant enumerators. One enumerator administered the
survey using paper and pen while the other used Open Data Kit
(ODK) (a smartphone-based survey tool). Data from these two
methods were tested against one another for quality control
purposes. Data from SUMs and surveys were processed in
Version 3 of the open-source statistical computing software R.
A further discussion of the algorithm used to label cooking
events can be found in Wilson et al., 2015.
RESULTS
SUMs Loss and Bias. The SUMs in this experiment were
vulnerable to failure, which may produce SUMs data bias.
During the study we discovered that some women innovated by
ipping the BDS upside down, lling the bottom with charcoal,
and preparing drinks or small meals. The BDS was not
designed for this mode of use. The SUM was mounted at the
bottom of the BDS to avoid overheating from wood res (see
SI Figure S1), but the bottom of the BDS is precisely where
charcoal res would make the BDS hottest. Of 170 participants
with SUMs-equipped cookstoves, 29 participants had thermally
damaged SUMs. In followup surveys, participants who reported
using charcoal as a primary cooking fuel (for food or drink)
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were 2.8 times more likely (p= 0.01, Fisher test) to thermally
damage their SUMs as participants who did not report using
charcoal as a primary fuel. A summary of SUMs failures by
Administrative Unit is presented in SI Table S2.
Because data were unrecoverable from thermally damaged
SUMs, this study has possible bias. We posit that adopters of
the BDS are more likely to damage SUMs and therefore
adopters are underrepresented in surviving SUMs data. Put
another way, it would be dicult to thermally damage a SUM
mounted on a BDS that was never used for cooking. Therefore,
data loss from thermal damage represents a nonrandom
sampling bias in SUMs data and a probable downward bias
on sensor-measured adoption rates. Accordingly, SUMs-derived
data presented in this study are a conservative estimate of
adoption throughout the entire experimental population. Other
less prevalent causes of SUMs loss were observed, namely
misplaced and faulty sensors (before distribution and baseline
survey), one stolen stove, and a small number of women not
returning for followup surveys. These data are summarized in
detail in SI Table S2. However, we assume nonthermal damage
loss factors do not meaningfully bias data. Unless otherwise
noted, quantitative SUMs data presented throughout this study
are derived from surviving SUMs.
Dening Userand Non-UserGroups. To perform
more meaningful analyses, we classied participants into two
groups based on their pre-followup BDS adoption: usersand
non-users.First, using SUMs data for each participant, we
computed the proportion of cookstove ownership days where
at least one cooking event was observed. The pre-followup
periodanalyzed was dened from 1 day after the participants
baseline survey until 2 days before the participants follow up
survey (to avoid eects near the followup discussed later). This
Figure 1. Left: a cumulative distribution function of the proportion of days used as measured by SUMs. Dashed vertical line indicates the 10% of use
days delination between non-users(left of dashed line) and users. Right: the probability densities of hours of daily cooking pre and post followup.
Figure 2. Histograms demonstrate cooking events and hours per day in the pre-followup period. Stacked histograms are coded into user and non-
user subgroups.
Table 1. A Summary of SUMs Results
a
results by unit Korma Al-Fashir Zaghawa Jebel Si Tawila total
pre 1st followup
users 17 24 16 16 14 87
non-users 9 3 5 10 8 35
hours cooked per day 1.00 (0.99) 1.64 (1.01) 0.98 (0.91) 0.72 (0.84) 1.14 (1.38) 1.10 (1.07)
users 1.52 (0.85) 1.84 (0.87) 1.27 (0.84) 1.15 (0.82) 1.79 (1.37) 1.54 (0.97)
non-users 0.03 (0.07) 0.00 (0.00) 0.03 (0.06) 0.04 (0.09) 0.02 (0.02) 0.03 (0.06)
cooking events per day 1.58 (1.56) 2.10 (1.41) 1.36 (1.32) 0.90 (1.06) 1.33 (1.55) 1.47 (1.43)
users 2.39 (1.33) 2.36 (1.26) 1.77 (1.25) 1.44 (1.04) 2.08 (1.49) 2.04 (1.30)
non-users 0.05 (0.09) 0.00 (0.00) 0.04 (0.07) 0.04 (0.10) 0.03 (0.03) 0.04 (0.07)
post 1st followup
users 16 14 11 41
non-users 5 8 6 19
hours cooked per day 2.01 (1.10) 1.50 (1.08) 1.67 (1.62) 1.73 (1.26)
users 1.91 (1.15) 1.51 (1.28) 1.77 (1.44) 1.74 (1.26)
non-users 2.32 (0.94) 1.48 (0.69) 1.50 (2.05) 1.70 (1.30)
cooking events per day 2.65 (1.57) 1.97 (1.32) 1.62 (1.83) 2.11 (1.60)
users 2.51 (1.68) 1.84 (1.45) 1.70 (1.74) 2.06 (1.62)
non-users 3.11 (1.15) 2.21 (1.12) 1.47 (2.15) 2.21 (1.57)
a
Note that userand non-userare dened in the context of the pre-followup period. Data format is mean (standard deviation).
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variable, termed proportion of days usedis plotted as a
cumulative distribution function in Figure 1. An arbitrary
delineation was drawn at 10% of days used, and participants
utilizing the BDS more than 10% BDS ownership days in this
period were classied as users.Although the quantitative
delineation between users and non-users was arbitrary, it is
useful to characterize study participants in terms of women who
generally tried out the BDS before their follow up survey
(users) and those who very rarely or never used the BDS before
the follow up survey (non-users). It is important to note that
we do not intend to conate the term userto mean
successful adopter.We would not be satised, and we suspect
that neither would most customers, if a cookstove was only
useful 3 days out of a month. In that way, 10% is not a
meaningful cutofor a programs success in any health,
environmental, or economic benet sense. However, as will be
shown, the userand non-userdelineation is useful in
comparing when and how cookstoves are adopted. Unless
otherwise specied, userand non-userclassication refers
to pre-followup behavior.
Pre-Followup Adoption Measured by SUMs and
Surveys. In the pre-followup period, 87 of 122 (71%)
participants with surviving SUMs were classied as users of
the BDS. Remembering that SUMs thermal damage presents a
downward bias on this study, if all thermally damaged SUMs
were presumed to belong to users,the study-wide adoption
rate would be 77% users.
The proportion of users varied widely and signicantly by
Administrative Unit (p= 0.004; Fishers exact test) with Al-
Fashir Rural having the highest rate of users at 89% and Jebel Si
having the lowest at 62%. Study-wide, a typical user utilized her
BDS 1.54 (SD = 0.97) hours per day over 2.04 (SD = 1.30)
cooking events; these data are displayed as histograms in Figure
2. Including non-users, the study-wide average adoption rates
were 1.10 (SD = 1.07) hours and 1.47 (SD = 1.43) events of
daily cooking. A summary of SUMs-measured adoption is
shown in Table 1. Although ownership periods were relatively
short compared with other longitudinal studies,
9,12
users
showed no signicant linear trend in average hours cooked
per day over the pre-followup ownership period (estimated
increase of 0.0002 h/day; p= 0.84).
Participants reported high rates of BDS adoption regardless
of their SUMs-measured usage: 95% of participants reported
using the BDS as their primary stove.As shown in Figure 3,
nearly all users reported using the BDS three times a day on a
normal day.This is compared to a SUMs-measured daily
cooking events of 2.04 events for users and 0.04 (median of 0)
daily events for non-users. 77% of users and 86% of non-users
over-reported cooking events. Of the 62 participants who used
the BDS an average of less than once per day, only ve actually
reported doing so. Both users and non-users over-reported
cooking hours with 85% of users and 86% of non-users over-
reporting. All told, over-reporting represents 1.2 h and 1.3
events of daily cooking overestimation.
Because of the disagreement between SUMs and surveys, we
explored whether calculation errors or ambiguity in the wording
of the question On a normal day,how many times/hours do
you use your BDS?could explain the observed dierences.
Because of the questions design, answering in a way that would
perfectly correlate with SUMs would require respondents to
time-average usage and then report their average daily use,
recalling over long periods and aggregating many data points, a
task that has been shown in the Development Economics
literature to be error prone.
20,24
Aside from recall and averaging
errors, we posited that women may over-report if they interpret
the question to only consider usage days rather than all
ownership days. If this dierent interpretation was used, surveys
would overstate usage relative to the sensors. To test these
possibilities, we checked whether SUMs data correlated with
another way we asked about usage: for an exhaustive list of
meal types, we asked how many times in a normal week a meal
was prepared with the BDS and how long each meal took to
cook on the BDS. The sum of weekly occurrences is termed
Computed Eventsand the sum of the product of meal
durations and weekly occurrences is termed Computed
Hours.These data are shown in a correlation table with
SUMs data in Table 2. Although these variables do not rely as
heavily on cooksrecall, calculations, or question interpretation
as the normal dayquestions, they correlate even more weakly
with SUMs data.
Impacts of Enumeration Activities on Adoption.
Figure 4 illustrates the eect of enumeration activities on
adoption for the three Units tracked after the rst followup.
Beginning roughly 2 days before the scheduled followup, non-
users begin to adopt their BDSs. After followup, enumeration
activities had a statistically signicant positive impact on the
non-user group, increasing hours of daily cooking by 1.6 h (p<
0.001, paired ttest) and no meaningful impact on the user
group, increasing hours of daily cooking by only 10 min.
Compared with the pre-followup period, non-users also
increased adoption of the BDS in terms of events, with an
average increase of 2.1 events per day. As a reminder, users
and non-usersare classied solely by their BDS adoption
before the followup survey. A summary of results both pre- and
post-followup is shown in Table 1.
Figure 3. Daily events (left) and hours of BDS use (right) are shown as scatter plots of SUMs-measured versus self-reported data. The scatter plots
include the 1:1 line that data would fall on if usersself-reports perfectly agreed with the SUMs algorithm. To avoid overplotting, plot points are
jittered..
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DISCUSSION
Although the BDSs were distributed free of charge, it was
relatively well-adopted among recipients, with 71% of surviving
SUMs classifying cooks as users.The (downward) bias
caused by thermally damaged SUMs resulting from inverted
BDS charcoal res means that up to 77% of participants were
potential usersin the pre-followup period. Among non-
users,pre-followup behavior is characterized by little or no
BDS utilization whatsoever. There is little evidence that non-
users try and then abandon the BDS. Rather, non-users seem to
neglect using the BDS altogether until just days before the
followup survey. It should be noted that all modes of clean
cookstove adoption cannot automatically be considered
exposure-reducing and benecial to health; improper cookstove
operation, movement of a cleaner cookstove to a less-ventilated
environment, or increased overall fuel consumption via stove
stacking could all contribute to increased exposure relative to
baseline.
Other studies have found that socioeconomic and educa-
tional factors are the most important predictors of cookstove
adoption,
25
and this trend likely holds in our study as well.
Namely, Al-Fashir Rural Unit, which exhibited the highest rates
of adoption, is comprised of inhabitants who have emigrated to
Al-Salam IDP Camp from periurban settlements near North
Darfurs capital. Although socioeconomic and educational
factors were not measured explicitly in surveys, Al-Fashir
Rural residents were likely to have been exposed to better
educational and work opportunities than residents from other
Units representing poorer rural parts of Darfur.
As found in other studies of health-related technolo-
gies,
10,11,26,27
study participants tended to over-report cook-
stove adoption. In this study, average self-reported used was
roughly twice SUMs data in terms of hours and events of
cooking per day. However, because there is little correlation
between SUMs and survey data, it is somewhat misleading to
think of reporting as a 2-fold overestimation. For example,
almost all women surveyed (83%) report using the BDS three
times per dayevery meal. In other words, it is incorrect to
think that women inate their adoption by 2-fold; instead,
nearly uniformly, women report using the BDS for all daily
meals, but across the sample, women actually use their BDSs
for about half of all meals. Though we attempted to adjust for
usersinability to average over large time periods by calculating
adoption from other questions, no manner of questioning or
reinterpretation of reporting periods correlated well with
SUMs-measured behavior, leading us to believe that many
participants intentionally misrepresent cookstove adoption
when surveyed.
We were surprised by the strong inuence of survey
enumeration activities on the non-usergroup. As easily
seen in Figure 4, non-users exhibit a strong up-tick in adoption
starting 2 days before their scheduled followup survey. This
eect is seen in all Units that were observed until a second
followup, and this eect spanned a range of socio-economic
levels and cultural or geographic origin (as indicated by
Administrative Unit) and pre-followup ownership duration.
We posit that non-users may feel social pressure to use their
BDS before the followup survey; perhaps it would be
embarrassing to bring a shiny, clean, unused, donated stove
Table 2. Correlation Coecients Tabulated for SUMs and
Survey-Based Measures of Adoption
Figure 4. Left: average hours of daily cooking per day in the 10 days preceding and tailing the followup. Right: post followup versus pre followup
SUMs data of hours of cooking per day. Points falling along the 1:1 line represent participants whose behavior was unchanged by the followup.
Participants above the 1:1 line use their stove more after the followup, and participants below the 1:1 line use their stove less after the followup.
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back to the womens center. Or, perhaps, non-users felt the
need to educate themselves about the BDS before returning for
the followup survey. Regardless of motivation, in the days
leading up to the followup survey, the non-user group strongly
exhibits what we refer to as courtesy use.This spike in usage
in reaction to or anticipation of direct observation (sometimes
called reactivityby other researchers) is consistent with other
studies in the developing and developed world.
11,2831
However, what was not expected was the non-user groups
sustained adoption in the 2 weeks after followup survey
enumeration. Because enumeration activities were not
instructive or coercive, one would expect women who did
not adopt the BDS would continue to neglect it after the follow
up survey. Quite to the contrary, upon returning home, non-
userscookstove utilization became indistinguishable (mean
1.77 h, standard error 0.31) from their userpeers (mean 1.74
h, standard error 0.22). In fact, using the same denition of
useras the pre-followup period (BDS use on 10% of
ownership days), 83% of previous non-users transitioned to
post-followup users.Additionally, population wide, 86% of
participants would be classied as users in the post-followup
period compared with 71% in the pre-followup period.
We propose three hypotheses that may explain the
phenomenon of non-user conversion. First, non-users rarely
or never used their BDSs until just before the followup, so this
group may never have realized the benets of the BDS.
Perhaps, after nally trialling the BDS as a courtesy immediately
before the followup, non-users realized they enjoyed the BDS
and subsequently continued use after the followup. Second, it is
possible that peer pressure at the followup survey inuenced
non-users; one can imagine non-users walking and talking with
their user peers to the Womens Center. At the Womens
Center, although surveys were private, women may have seen
peers with well-used cookstoves. Non-users may have over-
heard others others talking, truthfully or not, about enjoying
the BDS and thus felt more comfortable trying the BDS.
Finally, SUMs vs surveys suggest that many non-users told
mistruths during the followup survey about how often they use
the BDS. This deceit, although untrue, could have built non-
usersself-ecacy as a BDS adopter and helped non-users
visualize themselves as BDS adopters, inducing adoption after
returning home.
32
Alternatively, deceit may generate unpleasant
cognitive dissonance, which participants may resolve through
adoption consistent with their self-reports.
33,34
These theories
were not tested in this study, but suggest potential contributors
to post-followup adoption.
In this study, we presented cookstove adoption and reporting
behaviors for recipients of the BDS, joining a small set of
studies that have been able to combine traditional self-reported
data with objective sensor-based measurements. Our analysis is
unusual in part because of its context: despite the distribution
of tens of thousands of BDS cookstoves in IDP camps to date,
the challenging operating environment that makes aid needed
also leads to data scarcity and other monitoring challenges.
The relevance of our results is not limited to the IDP context.
Free distribution of improved cookstoves is commonplace, and
may be accompanied by a desire among recipients to report
behaviors preferred by distributors. However, the impacts of
free distributions on survey bias have yet to be rigorously
studied. Indeed, this study contributes evidence of the
discrepancies between self-reported and sensor-detected
usage, and arms the need for sensor-based inquiry when
impact must be accurately measured. More exploration is need
of factors that could predict or facilitate higher accuracy of self-
report data even when compliance with a normative behavior is
low.
Additionally, we were able to use sensors to show an example
of how monitoring activities can themselves alter the behaviors
being monitored: usage spiked just before a followup visit, and
for many previously non-users, the uptick was sustained for the
following 2 weeks. This discovery may have useful implications
for optimal followup after distribution and provide insight
about strategies for inexpensive light-touchinterventions to
increase cookstove adoption.
Our ndings do not suggest that sensors can or should
replace self-reported data more generally. Sensors can be costly
to implement and can only cover a small fraction of the types of
data that may be relevant for analysis. Still, it is important to
consider which types of data are most likely to be reliable and
whether objective data sources may complement survey data in
a given context. In this IDP context, it is apparent that surveys
are extremely unreliable means of measuring technology
adoption.
In summary, these data highlight the weaknesses of self-
reported adoption data, the importance of objective sensor-
based validation of adoption and impacts, and reengaging
technology recipients, especially those with low uptake. This
work has shown that eective monitoring and evaluation can
have dramatic positive impacts on adoption, potentially leading
to better health and economic outcomes for customers.
ASSOCIATED CONTENT
*
SSupporting Information
The Supporting Information is available free of charge on the
ACS Publications website at DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b02899.
A full acknowledgment of participants in this study as
well as an expanded Background section that discuses the
Berkeley-Darfur Stoves context and supporting gures
and tables referenced in the main text. These supporting
gures and tables are intended to give the reader
additional insight into study timeline and design
(including phased rollout), stove use monitor (SUM)
failures, and the internally displaced persons context
(PDF)
AUTHOR INFORMATION
Corresponding Author
*E-mail dlwilson@berkeley.edu.
Notes
The authors declare no competing nancial interest.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank our enumeration and implementation team, lead by
coauthor Dr. Adam, for their excellent work on this research
study. Additional thanks to Potential Energy, Sustainable
Action Group, and the United States Agency for International
Development (USAID) who generously funded this work
under AID-OAA-A-13-00002.
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INTRODUCTION Given that concentrated poverty is deepening around the world, the international development community now has even more reason to address this issue. Development aid has ostensibly served as an important policy instrument for promoting the welfare of marginalized communities in the Global South. The effectiveness of such efforts can be evaluated from varying angles but the first test to pass is its relevance to the lives of the most marginalized. This dissertation evaluates the extent to which aid activity is suited to the needs and priorities of recipients using three lenses: 1) needs assessment at the global level, 2) the design of interventions at the country level, and 3) evaluations at the sub-national level. The first chapter identifies the salient dimensions of poverty from the monetary and capability perspectives, using a cross-country analysis for 188 developing countries. The second chapter introduces a framework for analyzing two community development models in Myanmar as a country case study. The third chapter explores whether community development projects reach the poorest villages. It combines satellite imagery with spatial analysis to evaluate sub-national aid distribution. This study suggests strategies to deploy aid resources in a way to maximize their impact on people living in absolute poverty and data-sparse contexts. CHAPTER 1. THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN TWO APPROACHES TO GLOBAL POVERTY: WHAT DOES IT REVEAL? For decades, development communities have attempted to develop poverty measures that can be used to inform need assessment and aid allocation. Building on these efforts, this paper examines the discrepancies between global poverty measures and brings that analysis to bear on identifying the salient dimensions of poverty in developing countries. It first compares the monetary and capability approaches to poverty and identifies comparable indices from each approach: the poverty headcount ratio (P0) and the multidimensional poverty headcount ratio (H). This paper then describes the degree of overlap and discrepancy between P0 and H for 118 developing countries from 2000 to 2014, synthesizing the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), World Development Indicators, and OECD aid activity data. On average, there is a high correlation between the two poverty measures, but considerable discrepancies surface for some countries. I analyze the position of these countries with respect to the fitted line of the two measures, classifying them into income-poor and capability-poor countries. Countries such as Pakistan and Ethiopia, for example, are experiencing “capability poverty” while Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe are experiencing “income poverty.” I examine whether aid composition corresponds to the country’s relative income and poverty status, finding that capability-poor countries receive marginally higher social sectoral aid compared with economic sector aid. This study suggests that discrepancies between measures of international poverty can be used to target, monitor, and evaluate global aid distribution. CHAPTER 2 ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF COMMUNITY-LED DEVELOPMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND PRACTICE Reconciling the dual imperatives of legitimate state building and efficient service delivery, Community-led Development (CLD) has been praised as “a new form of engagement” in providing aid to fragile states. However, whether or how the CLD represents a new model of practice remains poorly understood. The absence of an analytical framework for distinguishing alternative CLD approaches to development aid hinders both the design of context-specific interventions and the evaluation of their impacts. This dissertation aims to compare two alternative models of CLDs against a backdrop provided by the framework of community-led development. Using document reviews and stakeholder interviews, this paper analyzes two aid projects in Myanmar: the Korean government-supported Saemaul Undong (SMU, New Village Movement), which reflects the perspective of the developmental state, and the World Bank-supported National Community-Driven Development Project (NCDDP), which reflects the perspective of the revised neoliberalism. Next, this study proposes the Agency-Power-Dimension (APD) framework for use in describing donors’ general CLD aid policies in conjunction with specific CLD projects in Myanmar. The Agency-Power-Dimension (APD) framework is proposed to describe donors’ general CLD aid policies in conjunction with specific CLD projects in Myanmar. This study finds that the intervention strategies of SMU and NCDDP differ regarding the main agency of change, the handling of power, and the objectives of projects. SMU engages with government extension workers as the main change agent, and its accountability comes from the performance of projects that focuses on agricultural production. In contrast, NCDDP works with private facilitators, emphasizing the processes of inclusion in the context of public infrastructure development. Previously, impact evaluations of CLDs set hypotheses based on the logical progression of the projects whose indicators are diffused over broad socio-economic domains. The APD framework identifies the main facets of treatment arms in future experimental studies. Policymakers seeking development opportunities in other fragile states can compare East Asian/Southern and Western/Northern approaches and apply it to varying local conditions. CHAPTER 3: MAPPING COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AID: SPATIAL ANALYSIS IN MYANMAR Aid policy has the potential to alleviate global poverty by targeting areas of concentrated need. However, few aid-determinant studies have analyzed the characteristics of poverty at the sub-national level, and even those studies were conducted with their units of analysis at a high administrative level such as the state. This study intends to fill this knowledge gap by portraying poverty at the granular level, and promoting the evaluation of aid towards the most marginalized communities. The goal of this study is to explore the extent to which community-led-development (CLD) projects take place in poor villages, using the case of Myanmar. It also analyzes how two CLD models, National Community-Driven Development Project (NCDDP) and Saemaul Undong (SMU) target needs differently. To collect outcome variables, I develop web scraping algorithms to create comprehensive and up-to-date locations of CLD participating villages (n=12,282). As for exploratory variables, radiance values from nighttime satellite imagery are extracted to estimate wealth at the community level. In addition, I spatially interpolate the DHS wealth index to make inferences on poverty in aid sites. By geospatially matching aid and wealth related data, I test factors that explain variation in the distribution of CLD and different approaches to community development. The results show mixed evidence of poverty-oriented targeting. First, as each increment of the share of a vulnerable population rises, the likelihood of aid presence in that community declines by 4%. Next, the density of community development projects is higher in areas shining brighter. A one unit increase in the nightlight intensity increases the number of projects by 86 within a two-degree radius of a DHS village cluster. Among villages of similar levels of nightlights and population, however, aid goes to areas with lower assets. Last, NCDDP, which emphasizes inclusion and collaboration, supports poorer villages farther away from conflict events. In contrast, SMU, which considers competition conductive to performance, supports more established areas including villages near conflict zones. Unlike previous studies finding that state-level aid allocations favor the richest, this more fine-grained analysis suggests that a need-based allocation is also in place. The nuances captured in nightlight luminosity are also shown to improve predictions of aid distribution. Synthesizing new sources of data can be used to assess area-based interventions in the context of poverty and conflict where traditional survey is too costly. CONCLUSION This study draws attention to alternative forms of evidence-based targeting, design, and evaluation of aid from poverty-oriented perspectives. The first chapter reveals that there are 1.5 times more capability poor countries than income poor ones, and the capability poor countries receive marginally higher social sectoral aid relative to economic sector aid. The second chapter finds that the intervention strategies of the revised neo-liberal (NCDDP) and the developmental state (SMU) model differ in terms of the main agency of change, the handling of power, and the primary dimension of projects. The third chapter highlights that community development aid in Myanmar flows to villages with low assets but also with higher nightlight luminosity and a lower proportion of vulnerable populations. These three chapters also speak to the evolution of an aid landscape with a distinctive way of delivering aid and generating empirical evidence. This study concludes with a call for both research and practice to return to the basics, and to begin by considering client and user needs. Grounding development policy in more contextualized knowledge, the development community can better serve the “bottom billion.”
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