Conference Paper

Integrated renewable energy based power system for Europe, Eurasia and MENA regions

Authors:
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

Abstract

The existing fossil fuel based power sector has to be transformed towards carbon neutrality in close future to limit global warming to 2ºC. The 100% renewable energy (RE) based system will be discussed in the paper. Such a system can be built using already existing energy generation, storage and transmission technologies. A regional integration of Europe, Eurasia and MENA energy systems will facilitate access to lower cost energy sources in neighboring regions, provide additional flexibility in the system and decrease the need in energy storage and increase the system stability because of more distributed generation. Additional demand from synthetic gas generation will additionally decrease the energy storage demand, additional flexibility enables the system to use lower cost energy sources and the primary energy generation cost decreases. Finally, such an integration can provide a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with total LCOE of about 50 €/MWh for the year 2030 cost assumptions. Even for a much higher energy demand in the system the total LCOE will be around 42 €/MWh – lower than coal-CCS or new nuclear options.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.

... Advances in alternative power generation, distribution, storage, and changes in consumption, have created a foundation for a new energy future. The feasibility debate in the energy economics literature has been settled in favor of renewable energy [2][3][4][5]. Peer-reviewed research published in the last few years makes a strong case, supported by robust quantitative analysis, for this reality [6]. This transition is not only feasible but also cost efficient. ...
Article
Full-text available
We examine a different approach to complete the decarbonization of the Russian economy in a world where climate policy increasingly requires the radical reduction of emissions wherever possible. We propose an energy system that can supply solar and wind-generated electricity to fulfill demand and which accounts for intermittency problems. This is instead of the common approach of planning for expensive carbon capture and storage, and a massive increase in energy efficiency and, therefore, a drastic reduction in energy use per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Coupled with this massive increase in alternative energy, we also propose using excess electricity to generate green hydrogen. Hydrogen technology can function as storage for future electricity needs or for potential fuel use. Importantly, green hydrogen can potentially be used as a replacement export for Russia’s current fossil fuel exports. The analysis was carried out using the highly detailed modeling framework, the High-Resolution Renewable Energy System for Russia (HIRES-RUS) representative energy system. The modeling showed that there are a number of feasible combinations of wind and solar power generation coupled with green hydrogen production to achieve 100% decarbonization of the Russian economy.
... The use of such a combined system allows most effectively cover the needs of the consumer, depending on weather conditions [1]. To make a decision about the use of alternative energy sources, it is necessary to calculate the theoretical values of the energy potential in a particular area in order to draw up recommendations on the selection of the most effective integrated autonomous energy supply system based on this information. ...
... It can be seen that the LCOE for the East Asian region is lower than NEA for both the scenarios. The key parameters for East Asia, comparing with SEA and NEA are given in Table 3. Comparable results had been already obtained for the integration of the major regions Europe, Eurasia and Middle East North Africa, for which the total LCOE reduction is found to be about 1.3% [37]. ...
Conference Paper
Energy is a key driver for social and economic change. Many countries trying to develop economically and socially and many developed countries trying to maintain their economic growth will create a huge demand for energy in the future. The growth in energy production will put our climate at risk, without change in the existing fossil fuel based energy system. In this paper, 100% renewable energy based system is discussed for East Asia, integrating the two large regions of Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. Regional integration of the two regions does not provide significant benefit to the energy system in terms of cost reduction. However, reduction of 0.4-0.7% in terms of total annual cost of the system can be achieved for East Asia, mainly realised in optimising the bordering regions of South China and Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The idea of Australia being an electricity source for Asia, does not pay off due to the long distances and local storage of the generated electricity in the regions is more cost competitive. However, such an integration provides a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with the cost of electricity between 53-66 €/MWh for the year 2030 with the assumptions used in this study. The described energy system will be very cost competitive to the widely discussed nuclear and fossil carbon-capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
... Our findings suggest that local storage technologies are more cost-effective than transmission of electricity over distances of thousands of kilometers. A similar finding had been observed for the integration of the regions of Europe, Eurasia and MENA, for which the integration benefit was 1.3% [48]. East Asia and EuropeEurasiaMENA show the same characteristic, that a deep integration from a region-wide to an area-wide integration within a region is highly beneficial in the range of 5%-16%, since this had been found for all five major regions involved: Northeast Asia (11%) [23], Southeast Asia (5%) [22], Europe (11%) [49], Eurasia (16%) [50], and MENA (10%) [51]), but not for an integration of two neighboring major regions. ...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Agreement points out that countries need to shift away from the existing fossil-fuel-based energy system to limit the average temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 °C. A cost-optimal 100% renewable energy based system is simulated for East Asia for the year 2030, covering demand by power, desalination, and industrial gas sectors on an hourly basis for an entire year. East Asia was divided into 20 sub-regions and four different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage grid connection, and additional demand sectors: power, desalination, industrial gas, and a renewable-energy-based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) trading between regions. The integrated RE-SNG scenario gives the lowest cost of electricity (€52/MWh) and the lowest total annual cost of the system. Results contradict the notion that long-distance power lines could be beneficial to utilize the abundant solar and wind resources in Australia for East Asia. However, Australia could become a liquefaction hub for exporting RE-SNG to Asia and a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in East Asia with the cost assumptions used. This may also be more cost-competitive than nuclear and fossil fuel carbon capture and storage alternatives.
... The main focus of research has been so far to aggregate the 145 sub-regions into nine major world regions, which form the main body of the results of this paper. Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that an integrated analysis can be carried out for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [39] and East Asia [40], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The nine major world regions are: Europe [41], Eurasia [42], Middle East Northern Africa (MENA) [43], Sub-Saharan Africa [44], India/SAARC [33], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim [40,45], North America [46] and South America [47]. ...
Article
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
... 97 However, a recent research indicates that a decentralized renewable energy system is possible without global trading of energy thus reducing risks. 136,179 Furthermore, the human settlement and population distribution play a role in shaping the energy security. As humans are the end-users of the energy, historically, they used to settle close to energy sources. ...
Article
This paper sheds light on an integral aspect of the global energy system: energy security. Energy security is a universal topic that shapes policies and regulations in order to achieve higher levels of energy security and thus provides societies with a better life. Understanding the concept and its implications requires a holistic definition, but current research literature lacks a commonly accepted, precisely defined definition. Therefore, the research gap is the absence of a comprehensive definition that takes into account all energy security dimensions, and the absence of well-studied relationships between energy security and its dimensions. Taking that in mind, the gap is addressed by a systematic review of energy security definitions and by building a structural dimensionalization of energy security. Thus, this review aims to track changing definitions of energy security in modern times and formulate a concise and comprehensive definition. Furthermore, using a structural approach, 15 dimensions, and related parameters of energy security are determined and categorized to illustrate the range of issues covered by the term and to enable precise evaluation of the energy security of energy systems. The results of this review show clearly how energy security could be defined generically to account all dimensions, and show the relationships between these 15 dimensions and energy security. Understanding all dimensions of energy security provides insights for policymakers to formulate policies that account for all of these dimensions.
... This is because of good wind conditions due to the moderate seasonality in regions such as Mexico, Spain, Central Asia, and parts of China. More results on Turkey are available elsewhere, in particular, including effects of power grid interconnection to European neighbours, 30,69 the potential electricity hub function for Europe, Eurasia, and Middle East, 72 and for a detailed energy transition study. 73 ...
Article
The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5-year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership.
... The main focus of research had been so far to aggregate the 145 sub-regions into 9 major regions, which form the main body of the results of this paper. Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that the world can be represented by 23 regions [37], or an integrated analysis for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [38] or the East Asian Super Grid [39], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The 9 major regions are: Europe [40], Eurasia [41], MENA [42], Sub-Saharan Africa [43], India/ SAARC [32], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and Pacific [44,45], North America [46] and South America [47,48]. ...
Conference Paper
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
... And recent scientific investigations of global and regional energy systems indicate that interconnected energy systems can result in greater cost savings while also achieving high levels of RE, resilience and sustainability [7]- [13]. Such benefits of interconnections as well as sector integration have also been seen for Europe in general [14]- [16], and for the Nordic region [17], but a systematic analysis of a potential energy transition for the BSR is lacking. In addition, the roles of various energy storage solutions (ESS) have not been well defined even though they are generally accepted as being important to the transition towards sustainability and for security of supply [18]. ...
Conference Paper
The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model which defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-togas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from interregional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, interregional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-togas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... And recent scientific investigations of global and regional energy systems indicate that interconnected energy systems can result in greater cost savings while also achieving high levels of RE, resilience and sustainability [7]- [13]. Such benefits of interconnections as well as sector integration have also been seen for Europe in general [14]- [16], and for the Nordic region [17], but a systematic analysis of a potential energy transition for the BSR is lacking. In addition, the roles of various energy storage solutions (ESS) have not been well defined even though they are generally accepted as being important to the transition towards sustainability and for security of supply [18]. ...
Article
Full-text available
The Baltic Sea Region could become the first area of Europe to reach a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector. Simulations of the system transition from 2015 to 2050 were performed using an hourly resolved model that defines the roles of storage technologies in a least cost system configuration. Investigated technologies are batteries, pumped hydro storage, adiabatic compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage, and power-to-gas. Modelling proceeds in five-year time steps, and considers current energy system assets and projected demands to determine the optimal technology mix needed to achieve 100% RE electricity by 2050. This optimization is carried out under the assumed cost and status of all technologies involved. Results indicate the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) falls from 60 €/MWhe to 45 €/MWhe over time through adoption of low cost RE power generation and from inter-regional grid interconnection. Additionally, power system flexibility and stability are provided by ample resources of storable bioenergy, hydropower, inter-regional power transmission, and increasing shares of energy storage, together with expected price decreases in storage technologies. Total storage requirements include 0-238 GWhe of batteries, 19 GWhe of pumped hydro storage, and 0-16,652 GWhgas of gas storage. The cost share of storage in total LCOE increases from under 1 €/MWh to up to 10 €/MWh over time. Outputs of power-to-gas begin in 2040 when RE generation approaches a share of 100% in the power system, and total no more than 2 GWhgas due to the relatively large roles of bioenergy and hydropower in the system, which preclude the need for high amounts of additional seasonal storage. A 100% RE system can be an economical and efficient solution for the Baltic Sea Region, one that is also compatible with climate change mitigation targets set out at COP21. Concurrently, effective policy and planning is needed to facilitate such a transition.
... The DESERTEC approach also advocates extension of the grid into the solar-rich regions of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). An even broader extension of the European energy system was simulated for Europe, Eurasia and MENA for 2030 [101], and confirmed that lower costs and increased flexibility could be achieved through such integration. However, these benefits are comparatively small to those seen in the Area scenario of this study, and must be weighed against the increased potential risk that greater grid extension implies. ...
Article
Full-text available
Two transition pathways towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 are simulated for Europe using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The first is a Regions scenario, whereby regions are modelled independently, and the second is an Area scenario, which has transmission interconnections between regions. Modelling is performed in hourly resolution for 5-year time intervals, from 2015 to 2050, and considers current capacities and ages of power plants, as well as projected increases in future electricity demands. Results of the optimisation suggest that the levelised cost of electricity could fall from the current 69 €/MWh to 56 €/MWh in the Regions scenario and 51 €/MWh in the Area scenario through the adoption of low cost, flexible RE generation and energy storage. Further savings can result from increasing transmission interconnections by a factor of approximately four. This suggests that there is merit in further development of a European Energy Union, one that provides clear governance at a European level, but allows for development that is appropriate for regional contexts. This is the essence of a SuperSmart approach. A 100% RE energy system for Europe is economically competitive, technologically feasible, and consistent with targets of the Paris Agreement.
... Cost projections for energy technologies The investment and operational costs, lifetime, and efficiency of PV and the storage technologies are taken from Breyer's team [40]. This database uses learning curves to project costs to the year 2050 and has been validated in numerous journal publications [24,[40][41][42][43][44]. We assumed a capital cost of 5%. ...
Article
Full-text available
Extracting copper is energy-intensive. At the same time, copper is a key material for building the energy systems of the future. Both facts call for clean copper production. The present work addresses the greenhouse gas emissions of this industry and focuses on designing the future electricity supply of the main copper mines around the world, from 2020 to 2050, using distributed solar photovoltaic energy, storage, and a grid connection. We also consider the increasing energy demand due to ore grade decline. For the design, we use an optimization model called LEELO. Its main inputs are an hourly annual demand profile, power-contract prices for each mine, cost projections for energy technologies, and an hourly annual solar irradiation profile for each mine. Our findings show that it is attractive for the mines to have today a solar generation of 25% to 50% of the yearly electricity demand. By 2030, the least-cost solution for mines in sunny regions will be almost fully renewable, while in other regions it will take until 2040. The expected electricity costs range from 60 to100 €/MWh for 2020 and from 30 to 55 €/MWh for 2050, with the lower bound in sunny regions such as Chile and Peru. In most locations assessed, the low cost of solar energy will compensate for the increased demand due to declining ore grades. For the next steps, we recommend representing the demand with further detail, including other vectors such as heat and fuels. In addition, we recommend to include the embodied emissions of the technologies to get a more complete picture of the environmental footprint of the energy supply for copper production.
Article
This paper presents a noninvasive online parametric identification of three-phase AC power impedances to assess small-signal stability of grid-tied inverter systems by using well-known impedance-ratio-based stability criteria. The identification technique is integrated into the control of an existing grid-tied inverter for the estimation of wide bandwidth AC grid impedances, on top of its original power conversion function. This is accomplished in practice by injecting a short-time small-signal Pseudo Random Binary Sequence (PRBS), a digital approximation of white noise which is wide bandwidth in nature, on the inverter control loop so that all frequencies of interest at the impedance measurement point can be excited at once. Then, digital processing is performed in the integrated control platform where the parametric AC grid impedance is extracted from the measurement of voltage and current over the length of PRBS injection. Moreover, a procedure on how to identify the output impedance of the inverter is deployed so that the parametric source and load impedances can be used to verify the system stability by means of the generalized Nyquist stability criterion. The technique is validated via Hardware In the Loop (HIL) real-time simulation. The present work focuses on the identification of balanced three-phase AC impedances in dq reference frame and a dq diagonal-dominant stability analysis which is typical of LV Distribution Grids.
Article
Full-text available
A review of more than 60 studies (plus more than 65 studies on P2G) on power and energy models based on simulation and optimization was done. Based on these, for power systems with up to 95% renewables, the electricity storage size is found to be below 1.5% of the annual demand (in energy terms). While for 100% renewables energy systems (power, heat, mobility), it can remain below 6% of the annual energy demand. Combination of sectors and diverting the electricity to another sector can play a large role in reducing the storage size. From the potential alternatives to satisfy this demand, pumped hydro storage (PHS) global potential is not enough and new technologies with a higher energy density are needed. Hydrogen, with more than 250 times the energy density of PHS is a potential option to satisfy the storage need. However, changes needed in infrastructure to deal with high hydrogen content and the suitability of salt caverns for its storage can pose limitations for this technology. Power to Gas (P2G) arises as possible alternative overcoming both the facilities and the energy density issues. The global storage requirement would represent only 2% of the global annual natural gas production or 10% of the gas storage facilities (in energy equivalent). The more options considered to deal with intermittent sources, the lower the storage requirement will be. Therefore, future studies aiming to quantify storage needs should focus on the entire energy system including technology vectors (e.g. Power to Heat, Liquid, Gas, Chemicals) to avoid overestimating the amount of storage needed.
Article
Energy storage systems can cost-effectively balance fluctuations from renewable generation. Also, hydropower dams can provide flexibility, but often cause massive fluctuations in flow releases (hydropeaking), deteriorating the ecology of the downstream rivers. Expanding transmission infrastructure is another flexibility source but is frequently plagued by social opposition and delays. As the decision-making process transcends costs, we developed a multi-objective framework to design a fully renewable power system, such that the tradeoffs between total costs, hydropeaking, and new transmission projects can be assessed from a multi-stakeholder perspective. We planned the Chilean power system for the year 2050 and, based on the obtained trade-off curves (Pareto), we identified the following implications for the different stakeholders. Avoiding new transmission generates little costs (avoiding 30%/100% of transmission costs < 1%/ > 3%), which is positive for planners but negative for transmission companies. Severe hydropeaking can be mitigated for about 1% of additional costs if transmission is deployed. Avoiding both hydropeaking and transmission is the most extreme scenario, costing 11%. The less the transmission and hydropeaking, the more solar and storage technologies are installed. Cheap solar and storage systems enable policymakers to cost-effectively limit hydropeaking and new transmission, which makes the system greener and more socially acceptable.
Article
The discussion about the benefits of a global energy interconnection is gaining momentum in recent years. The techno-economic benefits of this integration are broadly discussed for the major regions around the world. While there has not been substantial research on the techno-economic benefits, however, some initial results of the global energy interconnection are presented in this paper. Benefits achieved on the global scale are lower than the interconnections within the national and sub-national level. The world is divided into 9 major regions and the major regions comprise of 23 regions. When all the considered regions are interconnected globally, the overall estimated levelized cost of electricity is 52.5 €/MWh for year 2030 assumptions, which is 4% lower than an isolated global energy system. Further, the required installed capacities decrease by 4% for the fully interconnected system. Nevertheless, a more holistic view on the entire energy system will progress research on global energy interconnection as, synthetic power-to-X fuels and chemicals emerge as an important feature of the future sustainable global energy system with strong interactions of the power system not only to the supply, in energy fuel and chemicals trading globally, but also to the demand side. Global energy interconnection will be part of the solution to achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement and more research will help to better understand its impact and additional value.
Technical Report
Full-text available
Technical Report "Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector", published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017 A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is feasible at every hour throughout the year and more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will. Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050 . The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050. Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is 52 €/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to 70 €/MWh in 2015. Solar PV and battery storage drive most of the 100% renewable electricity supply due to a significant decline in costs during the transition. Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally. Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. Solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050. Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly short-term (diurnal) storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage. 100% renewables bring GHG emissions in the electricity sector down to zero, drastically reduce total losses in power generation and create 36 million jobs by 2050. Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eq in 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines. The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system. Operation and maintenance jobs increase from 20% of the total direct energy jobs in 2015 to 48% of the total jobs in 2050 that implies more stable employment chances and economic growth globally. The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Photovoltaic installations are usually guaranteed to operate for 25 to 30 years, with a warranty of 80% of initial performance remaining after this time. However, in order to determine the profitability of a project, it is important to estimate the performance of the photovoltaic modules over their lifetime, depending on their environment. In this study, a first version of an ageing model for photovoltaic systems is considered, taking into account the influence of the environmental stress factors, which are the temperature, the relative humidity, and the exposure to UV radiation. Another stress factor also needs to be taken into account: the module's voltage potential versus ground (Potential Induced Degradation). The impact of cell cracks on the modules is also included in the model, their impact over the years depending on the temperature, but mainly to thermal cycles, due to the differences in temperature between day and night (thermal dilatation). Accelerated Damp Heat tests, thermal cycling tests, PID tests and UV tests are interpreted and used for calibrating the model, in addition to other degradation studies taken from relevant literature. A simple model is first built for the corrosion, with the temperature and humidity as stress factors, considering only the maximum power degradation. A more advanced model is then built, considering the degradation of the two-diode model parameters. A model has been built for each degradation, that is to say corrosion (temperature and humidity), AR coating and EVA discoloration (UV exposure), PID causes (temperature, humidity and voltage), and cell cracks (Thermal cycling). First simulations have been done, with weather data from the south of France (Mediterranean climate), Miami (hot and humid), and Dubai (hot and dry) showing that the power output after 30 years is still above the warranty limit of 80%.
Article
Full-text available
A primary endeavor of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to synthesize and analyze data that is useful to the renewable energy industry on a global scale [1]. One goal of POWER is to provide data to the renewable energy industry in quantities and terms compatible with this industries design and engineering tools and for locations where ground site data is not readily available. The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set and web site have been a valuable resource for a growing user community involved in renewable energy. The POWER project continues to improve upon information available via the SSE web site. This paper describes the availability of higher spatial resolution assimilated data in a new release of SSE (i.e. SSE 6.0) that extends the period of coverage to 22 years.
Thesis
As electricity generation based on volatile renewable resources is subject to fluctuations, data with high temporal and spatial resolution on their availability is indispensable for integrating large shares of renewable capacities into energy infrastructures. The scope of the present doctoral thesis is to enhance the existing energy modelling environment REMix in terms of (i.) extending the geographic coverage of the potential assessment tool REMix-EnDaT from a European to a global scale, (ii.) adding a new plant siting optimization module REMix-PlaSMo, capable of assessing siting effects of renewable power plants on the portfolio output and (iii.) adding a new alternating current power transmission model between 30 European countries and CSP electricity imports from power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East via high voltage direct current links into the module REMix-OptiMo. With respect to the global potential assessment tool, a thorough investigation is carried out creating an hourly global inventory of the theoretical potentials of the major renewable resources solar irradiance, wind speed and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.45°x0.45°. A detailed global land use analysis determines eligible sites for the installation of renewable power plants. Detailed power plant models for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power allow for the assessment of power output, cost per kWh and respective full load hours taking into account the theoretical potentials, technological as well as economic data. The so-obtined tool REMix-EnDaT can be used as follows: First, as an assessment tool for arbitrary geographic locations, countries or world regions, deriving either site-specific or aggregated installable capacities, cost as well as full load hour potentials. Second, as a tool providing input data such as installable capacities and hourly renewable electricity generation for further assessments using the modules REMix-PlasMo and OptiMo. The plant siting tool REMix-PlaSMo yields results as to where the volatile power technologies photovoltaics and wind are to be located within a country in order to gain distinct effects on their aggregated power output. Three different modes are implemented: (a.) Optimized plant siting in order to obtain the cheapest generation cost, (b.) a minimization of the photovoltaic and wind portfolio output variance and (c.) a minimization of the residual load variance. The third fundamental addition to the REMix model is the amendment of the module REMix-OptiMo with a new power transmission model based on the DC load flow approximation. Moreover, electricity imports originating from concentrating solar power plants located in North Africa and the Middle East are now feasible. All of the new capabilities and extensions of REMix are employed in three case studies: In case study 1, using the module REMix-EnDaT, a global potential assessment is carried out for 10 OECD world regions, deriving installable capacities, cost and full load hours for PV, CSP, wind and hydro power. According to the latter, photovoltaics will represent the cheapest technology in 2050, an average of 1634 full load hours could lead to an electricity generation potential of some 5500 PWh. Although CSP also taps solar irradiance, restrictions in terms of suitable sites for erecting power plants are more severe. For that reason, the maximum potential amounts to some 1500 PWh. However, thermal energy storage can be used, which, according to this assessment, could lead to 5400 hours of full load operation. Onshore wind power could tap a potential of 717 PWh by 2050 with an average of 2200 full load hours while offshore, wind power plants could achieve a total power generation of 224 PWh with an average of 3000 full load hours. The electricity generation potential of hydro power exceeds 3 PWh, 4600 full load hours of operation are reached on average. In case study 2, using the module REMix-PlaSMo, an assessment for Morocco is carried out as to determine limits of volatile power generation in portfolios approaching full supply based on renewable power. The volatile generation technologies are strategically sited at specific locations to take advantage of available resources conditions. It could be shown that the cost optimal share of volatile power generation without considering storage or transmission grid extensions is one third. Moreover, the average power generation cost using a portfolio consisting of PV, CSP, wind and hydro power can be stabilized at about 10 €ct/kWh by the year 2050. In case study 3, using the module REMix-OptiMo, a validation of a TRANS-CSP scenario based upon high shares of renewable power generation is carried out. The optimization is conducted on an hourly basis using a least cost approach, thereby investigating if and how demand is met during each hour of the investigated year. It could be shown, that the assumed load can safely be met in all countries for each hour using the scenario's power plant portfolio. Furthermore, it was proven that dispatchable renewable power generation, in particular CSP imports to Europe, have a system stabilizing effect. Using the suggested concept, the utilization of the transfer capacities between countries would decrease until 2050.
Article
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Conference Paper
Saudi Arabia is in the midst of redefining the vision for the country's future and creating an economy that is not dependent on fossil fuels. This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050 and analyse the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. It is found that Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 whilst meeting the growing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 210 GW and 133 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 48 €/MWh. By 2050, PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector due to the further reduction in the capital costs alongside cost reductions in supporting battery technology. This results in 80% share of solar PV in the total electricity generation. Battery storage is required to meet the total electricity demand and by 2050, accounts for 48% of the total electricity demand. The LCOE is estimated at 38 €/MWh, required capacity of PV single-axis tracking is 369 GW and wind power plants 75 GW. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by the SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-togas (PtG) plants. In addition, the ratio of the energy curtailed to the total energy generated is lower in all time periods from 2020 to 2050, in the integrated scenario. As a result, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 2%-4% less than the non-integrated scenario.
Conference Paper
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comprised of 19 countries, is currently facing a serious challenge to supply their growing economies with secure, affordable and clean electricity. The MENA region holds a high share of proven crude oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Further, it is predicted to have increasing population growth, energy demand, urbanization and industrialization, each of which necessitates a comparable expansion of infrastructure, resulting in further increased energy demand. When planning this expansion, the effects of climate change, land use change and desertification must be taken into account. The MENA region has an excellent potential of renewable energy (RE) resources, particularly solar PV and wind energy, which can evolve to be the main future energy sources in this area. In addition, the costs of RE are expected to decrease relative to conventional energy sources, making a transition to RE across the region economically feasible. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for the MENA region in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Three scenarios have been evaluated according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 61 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 55 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 37 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by 6% in the system compared to the non-integrated sectors. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
Conference Paper
In this work, a 100% renewable energy (RE)-based energy system for the year 2030 for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim 1 , and Eurasia was prepared and evaluated and various impacts of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) were researched on an hourly resolution for one year. To overcome the intermittency of RE sources and guarantee regular supply of electricity, energy sources are complemented by five energy storage options: batteries, pumped hydro storage (PHS), thermal energy storage (TES), (A-CAES) and power-togas (PtG). In a region-wide scenario the energy system integration is within a sub-region of the individual large areas of Southeast Asia and Eurasia. In this scenario simulation were performed with and without A-CAES integration. For Southeast Asia and Eurasia, the integration of A-CAES has an impact on the share of a particular storage used and this depends on the seasonal variation in RE generation, the supply share of wind energy and demand in the individual areas. For the region-wide scenario for Southeast Asia (region with low seasonal variation and lower supply share of wind energy) the share of A-CAES output was 1.9% in comparison to Eurasia (region with high seasonal variation and a high supply share of wind energy) which had 28.6%. The other impact which was observed was the distribution of the storage technologies after A-CAES integration, since battery output and PtG output were decreased by 72.9% and 21.6% (Eurasia) and 5.5% and 1.6% (Southeast Asia), respectively. However, a large scale grid integration reduces the demand for A-CAES storage drastically and partly even to zero due to substitution by grids, which has been only observed for A-CAES, but not for batteries and PtG. The most valuable application for A-CAES seems to be in rather decentralized or nationwide energy system designs and as a well-adapted storage for the typical generation profiles of wind energy.
Article
In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
Presentation
Presentation at the LUT Doctorial School Conference in Lappeenranta at December 10, 2015.
Conference Paper
Increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including the fossil fuel based energy sector, emerge the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system as the way to stop pollution and global warming but also to reduce total energy system cost. Small population density and availability of various types of RE resources in Eurasian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising project of building a Super Grid connecting different Eurasian regions' energy resources to reach synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. For every sub-region it is defined a cost-optimal distributed and centralized mix of energy technologies and storage options, optimal capacities and hourly generation. Charge and discharge profiles of storages are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. System cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed. The results show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
Article
A clear consensus exists in German society that renewable energy resources have to play a dominant role in the future German energy supply system. However, many questions are still under discussion; for instance the relevance of the different technologies such as photovoltaic systems and wind energy converters installed offshore in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Concerns also exist about the cost of a future energy system mainly based on renewable energy. In the work presented here we tried to answer some of those questions. Guiding questions for this study were: (1) is it possible to meet the German energy demand with 100% renewable energy, considering the available technical potential of the main renewable energy resources? (2) what is the overall annual cost of such an energy system once it has been implemented? (3) what is the best combination of renewable energy converters, storage units, energy converters and energy-saving measures? In order to answer these questions, we carried out many simulation calculations using REMod-D, a model we developed for this purpose. This model is described in Part I of this publication. To date this model covers only part of the energy system, namely the electricity and heat sectors, which correspond to about 62% of Germany's current energy demand. The main findings of our work indicate that it is possible to meet the total electricity and heat demand (space heating, hot water) of the entire building sector with 100% renewable energy within the given technical limits. This is based on the assumption that the heat demand of the building sector is significantly reduced by at least 60% or more compared to today's demand. Another major result of our analysis shows that - once the transformation of the energy system has been completed - supplying electricity and heat only from renewables is no more expensive than the existing energy supply.
Article
The electricity consumption in the ASEAN (Association of East Asian Nations) region is one of the fastest growing in the world and will lead to a dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the next decades. A decarbonization of the region's electricity supply is thus a very important measure when taking action on global climate change. This paper defines cost-optimal pathways towards a sustainable power system in the region by employing linear optimization. The proposed model simultaneously optimizes the required capacities and the hourly operation of generation, transmission, and storage. The obtained results show that all different kinds of renewable sources will have to be utilized, while none of them should have a share of more than one third. The findings give reason for setting up an ASEAN power grid, as it enables the transportation of electricity from the best sites to load centers and leads to a balancing of the fluctuations from wind and solar generation. We suggest fostering a diversified extension of renewables and to elaborate on political and technical solutions that enable the build up an transnational supergrid.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
Regionale und globale räumliche Verteilung von Biomassepotenzialen
  • German Biomass
  • Research Centre
German Biomass Research Centre. " Regionale und globale räumliche Verteilung von Biomassepotenzialen. " German Biomass Research Centre; 2009 [in German]
ETRI 2014 -Energy technology reference indicator projections for 2010-2050
European Commission. "ETRI 2014 -Energy technology reference indicator projections for 2010-2050." EC Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy and Transport, Petten; 2014.
Stromspeicher in der Energiewende
  • Agora Energiewende
Agora Energiewende. "Stromspeicher in der Energiewende. Agora Energiewende", Berlin; 2014. Available at: www.agoraenergiewende.de/themen/optimierung/detailansicht/article/studiedie-energiewende-muss-nicht-auf-stromspeicher-warten/ [accessed: 30.01.2015] [in German]
Clean power from deserts -the Desertec concept for energy, water and climate security
  • G Knies
G. Knies (ed.), "Clean power from deserts -the Desertec concept for energy, water and climate security." Whitebook 4th Ed. DESERTEC Foundation, Hamburg; 2009
Windkraftanlagen -Systemauslegung, Netzintegration und Regelung
  • S Heier
S. Heier, "Windkraftanlagen -Systemauslegung, Netzintegration und Regelung," 5th edition, Vieweg + Teubner, Wiesbaden, 2009, pp. 393-436 [in German]
Abschlussbericht für das BMBF-Verbundproject Biogaseinspeisung
  • W Urban
  • H Lohmann
  • K Girod
W. Urban, H. Lohmann, K. Girod, "Abschlussbericht für das BMBF-Verbundproject Biogaseinspeisung." Fraunhofer UMSICHT; 2009 [in German].
PV LCOE in Europe 2014-30
  • Pv Technology European
  • Platform
European PV Technology Platform. "PV LCOE in Europe 2014-30." EUPVTP, Munich, 2015; www.eupvplatform.org
Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics -Long-term Scenarios for Market Development System Prices and LCOE of Utility-Scale PV Systems." study prepared by Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems
  • Agora Energiewende
Agora Energiewende. "Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics -Long-term Scenarios for Market Development System Prices and LCOE of Utility-Scale PV Systems." study prepared by Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; 2015.
Special report on RE sources and CC mitigation
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Special report on RE sources and CC mitigation." IPCC, Geneva; 2011.
Desert power -perspectives on a sustainable power system for EUMENA
  • Dii
Dii, 2050 "Desert power -perspectives on a sustainable power system for EUMENA." Dii, Munich; 2012
Will solar, batteries and electric cars re-shape the electricity system
UBS. "Will solar, batteries and electric cars re-shape the electricity system?" Q-Series -Global Utilities, Autos & Chemicals; 2014.
Regionale und globale räumliche Verteilung von Biomassepotenzialen
  • German Biomass Research Centre
German Biomass Research Centre. "Regionale und globale räumliche Verteilung von Biomassepotenzialen." German Biomass Research Centre; 2009 [in German]
Technology roadmap -bioenergy for heat and power
  • International Energy Agency
International Energy Agency. "Technology roadmap -bioenergy for heat and power." IEA Publications, Paris; 2012.