Conference Paper

Integration of reverse osmosis seawater desalination in the power sector, based on PV and wind energy, for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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Abstract

Saudi Arabia is in the midst of redefining the vision for the country's future and creating an economy that is not dependent on fossil fuels. This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050 and analyse the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. It is found that Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 whilst meeting the growing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 210 GW and 133 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 48 €/MWh. By 2050, PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector due to the further reduction in the capital costs alongside cost reductions in supporting battery technology. This results in 80% share of solar PV in the total electricity generation. Battery storage is required to meet the total electricity demand and by 2050, accounts for 48% of the total electricity demand. The LCOE is estimated at 38 €/MWh, required capacity of PV single-axis tracking is 369 GW and wind power plants 75 GW. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by the SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-togas (PtG) plants. In addition, the ratio of the energy curtailed to the total energy generated is lower in all time periods from 2020 to 2050, in the integrated scenario. As a result, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 2%-4% less than the non-integrated scenario.

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... In a recent study, we investigated the least cost pathway for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to transition from the current fossil-based power sector to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050, whilst integrating the increasing desalination sector with the power sector [8]. It was found that Saudi Arabia can achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 with a power sector dominated by PV single-axis tracking and battery storage. ...
... In the study in [8], it was found that the integration of the power and water desalination sectors provided the least cost transition pathway as opposed to the independent transition of the two sectors. The desalination plants and water storage provide additional flexibility to the system, enabling better utilization of the renewable energy generated. ...
... This leads to a reduction in the demand for battery and power-to-gas (PtG) storage in the transition. The study [8] highlights the relationship between water and battery storage in the energy transition pathway for Saudi Arabia. ...
Article
Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy system by 2040 including the integration of the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Single-axis tracking PV and battery storage contribute the highest to the final LCOE of the system. By 2050, single-axis tracking PV accounts for 77% of the total electricity generation. Battery storage accounts for 44% of the total electricity demand. Desalination plants provide additional flexibility to the energy system. Through sensitivity analysis, it is found that decreasing the capex of desalination plants results in a decrease in battery storage output and ultimately the total system capex throughout the transition. However, the required SWRO capex decrease seems to be higher than possible, leading to a lower cost flexibility provided by solar PV and battery storage than possible by very low cost water storage. This is because the relatively more expensive SWRO desalination prefers baseload operation for total energy system cost reasons.
... Reports show that demand response could improve load following capability of the power systems [2][3][4]. Energy storage also has the potential to improve grid flexibility and increase grid penetration of variable renewable energy resources while curtailment was reported to lead to high penetration at reduced storage and conventional balancing resources [1,[5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. In a recent study, the link between curtailment, penetration and storage need was reported to play a significant role in system design during energy transition [24]. ...
... However, seasonal variability and resource quality show significant differences from place to place. This can be seen by comparing Figures 2, 3 and 4, which present seasonal variability of wind and solar energy production for California [6], Finland [10] and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) [11], respectively. The daily output shows that wind output peaks in spring for California and KSA, and in wintertime in Finland. ...
... Note that wind and solar technologies account for 124 and 184 GW capacities, respectively, for the chosen year 2040. In total, 6% of the generated energy is curtailed and about 34% of the generated energy is stored during one year with the remaining being directly consumed (data taken from [11]). ...
Article
Full-text available
Resource complementarity carries significant benefit to the power grid due to its smoothing effect on variable renewable resource output. In this paper, we analyse literature data to understand the role of wind-solar complementarity in future energy systems by evaluating its impact on variable renewable energy penetration, corresponding curtailment, energy storage requirement and system reliability. Results show that wind-solar complementarity significantly increases grid penetration compared to stand-alone wind/solar systems without the need of energy storage. However, as capacity increases, the capability of complementarity to increase grid penetration approaches its limit due to the reduced matching of output to the load profile and pursuant increase in excess generation. Thus, achieving very high penetration requires appropriately designed energy storage and curtailment. Yet, even at higher grid penetration, complementarity carries significant multidimensional benefits to the power system. The most important observation was the achievement of very high grid penetration at reduced energy storage and balancing requirements compared to stand-alone systems. Researchers reported that using the same energy storage capacity, wind-solar complementarity led to significantly higher penetration of up to 20% of annual demand compared to stand-alone systems. In addition, by coupling to curtailment as an enabler, and related dispatch flexibility that comes with storage application, lower balancing capacity need was reported at higher penetration. Wind-solar complementarity was also found to reduce ramping need while contributing to improved system adequacy. Complementarity from other dispatchable renewable resources further reduces storage need and curtailment and improve system reliability, whereas power grid integration and relative cost changes allow for further optimisation while transitioning to 100% renewable energy.
... In a recent study, we investigated the least cost pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the current fossil-based power sector to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050, whilst integrating the increasing desalination sector with the power sector [12]. This study was motivated by the Saudi government's new vision to embrace the country's renewable energy resources and build a future without reliance on oil. ...
... In the study in [12] it was found that Saudi Arabia can achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 with a power sector dominated by PV single-axis tracking and battery storage. Singleaxis tracking PV contributed 210 GW out of the total 403 GW by 2040. ...
... This leads to a reduction in the demand for battery and power-to-gas (PtG) storage in the transition. The study [12] highlights the relationship between water and battery storage in the energy transition pathway for Saudi Arabia. Al-Nory and El-Beltagy [15] have modelled the role of water storage when high shares of renewable energy capacities are integrated into the Saudi Arabian electricity grid. ...
... In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. These studies uses diverging methodologies ...
... For many experts, energy storage technology is considered one of the disruptive technologies that could change the way we generate and consume energy. In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. ...
... In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. These studies uses diverging methodologies for modeling while also studying the cases at different geographic regions. ...
Conference Paper
Resource complementarities carry significant benefit to the power grid due to their smoothing effect on the variable renewable resources output. In this paper, we show that complementarity significantly reduces energy storage requirement by using simulation results generated for Israel, Saudi Arabia, California and Finland. In a complementarity study performed using Israeli and Californian data sets (focusing on the electricity sector alone), the wind-solar complementarities were shown to significantly increase grid penetration as compared to stand-alone wind/solar systems even without the need of energy storage. At even higher grid penetration their complementarity carries significant multidimensional benefits to the power grid. The most important observation was the achievement of very high grid penetration at reduced energy storage and balancing requirements as compared to stand-alone systems. Using specific energy storage capacity (186 GWh/22 GW) and setting the solar share to 0%, 50% and 100% of the total VRE capacity, the 50-50 wind-solar capacity mix has led to significantly higher penetration as compared to the stand-alone systems. For instance, by allowing 15% energy curtailment, it was shown that grid penetration of 63%, 80% and 55% of the annual demand, respectively, can be achieved. This was because of storage being able to follow a flexible dispatch strategy, which makes it applicable for various services depending on the season of the year and the available resources. A study on a 100% renewable energy system of Finland shows that one of the best scenarios was related to a 43%-57% wind-solar capacity mix for a 70% VRE penetration by 2050. A similar study on Saudi Arabia shows that broader resource complementarity and higher level of flexibility obtained through sector coupling has reduced the required storage very significantly. The results indicate that the multiple benefits obtained from resource complementarity should be emphasized during the transition to systems of high renewable energy shares.
... For many experts, energy storage technology is considered one of the disruptive technology that could change the way we generate and consume energy. In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. ...
... In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. These studies uses diverging methodologies for modeling while also studying the cases at different geographic regions. ...
... As regards to modelling techniques, we could have three major categories. Namely, (i) those estimating required energy capacity for very high shares of renewable energy with no or little attention to the power capacity of storage [1][2][3]; (ii) economic models assessing storage as a key technology in a low-carbon energy future [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]; and (iii) those studying factors affecting storage design and the corresponding capacity requirements [12][13][14][15]. As regards to the diversities in geographic location, it is possible to find studies covering several parts of the world such as entire regions (or a part) of Europe [1,2,5,9], Japan [3], Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) [6], Asia [7], Israel [12,13], USA [4,10,[14][15][16]]. ...
... In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. These studies uses diverging methodologies ...
... For many experts, energy storage technology is considered one of the disruptive technologies that could change the way we generate and consume energy. In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. ...
... In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. These studies uses diverging methodologies for modeling while also studying the cases at different geographic regions. ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this paper, we present issues of electricity storage requirements based on comparative studies of various results. Studies using the datasets of Israel and California show that the storage requirement was defined by the seasonal and diurnal patterns of the local demand, and the corresponding variable renewable energy (VRE) resources profile. It was found that when we increase energy supply from VRE, the use of storage and its capacity increases until we reach some threshold. After that threshold, the storage use starts to decline even if we increase the size. An optimally utilized storage of about daily average demand would be sufficient to reach grid penetration of about 90% of the total demands from VRE at 20% total energy loss. Optimizing with other RE resources will be necessary to reach a net zero energy system instead of pushing for penetration of 100% VRE, which will require larger storage size at reduced storage usability. A loose approximation shows that the largest storage requirement for such a VRE was of the order of 6 times average daily demand with a modest increase in energy loss. A diverse Finnish 100% RE system (with 70% from VRE) was reported with energy storage size of about 8.6 times average daily demand and 6% total loss. At similar loss, the same penetration was achieved by a storage size of 0.5 times daily average demand in California, suggesting further optimization in the Finish system could result in further reduction in storage with some increase in curtailment, but might lead to higher total system cost. It was also noted that the mismatch between the VRE and load profile leads to least efficient use of resources if 100% VRE grid was aspired. However, optimal designing for VRE penetration up to 90% complemented with other renewable resources could provide an efficient energy system relying on lower storage size and balancing. We conclude that understanding of the physics and economics of the future energy system is mandatory to build and operate it optimally.
... In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. These studies uses diverging methodologies ...
... For many experts, energy storage technology is considered one of the disruptive technologies that could change the way we generate and consume energy. In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. ...
... In the past decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18], several research activities dealing with some scenarios of low-carbon energy future have somehow examined the role of energy storage technology in the corresponding systems. Many researchers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] estimated storage capacity requirements for renewable energy based grids that dominantly depends on wind and solar. These studies uses diverging methodologies for modeling while also studying the cases at different geographic regions. ...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper, we present issues of electricity storage requirements based on comparative studies of various results. It was found that when we increase energy from VRE, the use of storage and its capacity increases until we reach some threshold. After that threshold, the storage use starts to decline even if we increase the size. An optimally utilized storage of about daily average demand would be sufficient to reach grid penetration of about 90% of the total demands from VRE. The understanding of the physics and economics of the future energy system is mandatory to build and operate it optimally.
... In a recent study, we investigated the least cost pathway for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to transition from the current fossil-based power sector to a 100% renewable energy based system by 2050, whilst integrating the increasing desalination sector with the power sector [8]. It was found that Saudi Arabia can achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 with a power sector dominated by PV single-axis tracking and battery storage. ...
... In the study in [8], it was found that the integration of the power and water desalination sectors provided the least cost transition pathway as opposed to the independent transition of the two sectors. The desalination plants and water storage provide additional flexibility to the system, enabling better utilization of the renewable energy generated. ...
... This leads to a reduction in the demand for battery and power-to-gas (PtG) storage in the transition. The study [8] highlights the relationship between water and battery storage in the energy transition pathway for Saudi Arabia. ...
Conference Paper
Saudi Arabia can transition to a 100% renewable energy system by 2040 including the integration of the power, desalination and non-energetic industrial gas sectors. Single-axis tracking PV and battery storage contribute the highest to the final LCOE of the system. By 2050, single-axis tracking PV accounts for 77% of the total electricity generation. Battery storage accounts for 44% of the total electricity demand. Desalination plants provide additional flexibility to the energy system. Through sensitivity analysis, it is found that decreasing the capex of desalination plants results in a decrease in battery storage output and ultimately the total system capex throughout the transition. However, the required SWRO capex decrease seems to be higher than possible, leading to a lower cost flexibility provided by solar PV and battery storage than possible by very low cost water storage. This is because the relatively more expensive SWRO desalination prefers baseload operation for total energy system cost reasons.
... A more detailed description of the model is found in Bogdanov and Breyer (2016). To analyse the optimal energy transition for Turkey, a further developed energy systems model, as described by Caldera et al. (2016), is used. In this study, the model is enhanced further by using a multi-nodal approach and the inclusion of the non-energetic industrial gas demand. ...
... The total water demand in Turkey is met by renewable water sources and in the beginning non-renewable groundwater sources, which makes it necessary that an increasing share of the water demand has to be covered by seawater desalination (Caldera et al., 2016). Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants are energy and cost efficient and therefore applied for the seawater desalination demand in Turkey. ...
... Levelised cost of A. Kilickaplan et al. Solar Energy 158 (2017) 218-235 water (LCOW) is strongly dependent on both the LCOE and the efficiency (Caldera et al., 2016) and it decreases from 0.94 €/m 3 to 0.63 €/m 3 in the transition period. The main reason for the decline in the cost is the phasing out of fossil fuel power plants. ...
Article
an hourly resolved model. Turkey is structured into seven geographical regions and all assumptions and data are collected and applied separately for the regions. The energy transition is simulated for two scenarios: a power sector scenario and power sector plus desalination and non-energetic industrial gas demand (integrated) scenario. Turkey has an enormous solar energy potential, which leads to an installed solar PV capacity of 287 GW (71% of total installed capacity) in the power scenario and 387 GW (73% of total installed capacity) in the integrated scenario in 2050. Solar PV and other installed RE systems are balanced by storage systems to increase the flexibility of the system. Levelised cost of electricity increased slightly in the power scenario, from a fossil fuel based system with 63 €/MWhel in 2015 to a fully RE-based system with 65.4 €/MWhel in 2050. The capacity mix in the power scenario entirely built for the assumptions of the year 2050 led to a cost of 51 €/MWhel, which can also be expected in the periods beyond 2050. In the integrated scenario, however, the costs decreased from 60.3 €/MWhel to 57.3 €/MWhel, mainly due to the benefit of sector coupling. A 100% RE system reduces energy import dependency and carbon emissions, while reducing the cost of energy supply.
... Noteworthy, the IPCC scenarios are all below 20%, and two are between 1% and 7%, clearly indicating the outdated cost assumptions. Latest results on energy system transition modelling for the case of Saudi Arabia [79] indicates that the solar PV share of energy supply will substantially grow beyond the year 2030, because the solar PV share grew up to 80% for Saudi Arabia for the year 2050 as a consequence of ongoing learning curve progress of solar PV and batteries. ...
... The LUT Energy system model is currently further developed to reach a full energy sector description including the sectors heating, mobility and industrial demand. Furthermore, the first energy transition simulations can be done on a single sub-regional basis [79], and the coverage of the full global energy system is in preparation. ...
Conference Paper
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
... Noteworthy, the IPCC scenarios are all below 20%, and two are between 1% and 7%, clearly indicating the outdated cost assumptions. Latest results on energy system transition modelling for the case of Saudi Arabia [79] indicates that the solar PV share of energy supply will substantially grow beyond the year 2030, because the solar PV share grew up to 80% for Saudi Arabia for the year 2050 as a consequence of ongoing learning curve progress of solar PV and batteries. ...
... The LUT Energy system model is currently further developed to reach a full energy sector description including the sectors heating, mobility and industrial demand. Furthermore, the first energy transition simulations can be done on a single sub-regional basis [79], and the coverage of the full global energy system is in preparation. ...
Article
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
... On the other hand, the learning curve of wind is not so sharp, i.e. the share of PV is expected to grow year by year. Such an effect had been found for instance for the case of Saudi Arabia [70]. Besides, the installation of distributed small-scale and centralized PV plants is already profitable in numerous countries across the world and PV electricity generation cost will tend to be further reduced in the coming years [69]. ...
Conference Paper
Renewable energy (RE) has been already viewed as a minor contributor in the final energy mix of North America due to cost and intermittency constraints. However, recent dramatic cost reductions and new initiatives using RE, particularly solar PV and wind energy, as a main energy source for the future energy mix of the world pave the way for enabling this source of energy to become cost competitive and beneficial in comparison to fossil fuels. Other alternatives such as nuclear energy and coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) cannot play an important role in the future of energy system, mainly due to safety and economic constraints for these technologies. Phasing out nuclear and fossil fuels is still under discussion, however the 'net zero' greenhouse gas emissions agreed at COP21 in Paris clearly guides the pathway towards sustainability. Consequently, RE would be the only trustable energy source towards a clean and sustainable world. In this study, an hourly resolved model has been developed based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constraints with a bright perspective of RE power generation and demand for North America. The geographical, technical and economic potential of different types of RE resources in North America, including wind energy, solar PV, hydro, geothermal and biomass energy sources enable the option to build a Super Grid connection between different North American regions' energy resources to achieve synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. The North American region, including the US, Canada and Mexico in this paper, is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. These sub-regions are interconnected by high voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for North America in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Four scenarios have been evaluated according to different HVDC transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 63 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 53 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 42 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by around 6.6% in the energy system compared to the non-integrated sectors due to higher system efficiency enabled by more flexibility. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
... As the MoH intends to propose serious steps to reengineer the SHCS through the NTP, the proposed initiative aims to reduce costs by, on one hand, sharing risks between public and private institutions and, on the other hand, engaging community-driven approaches within the healthcare system [26,27]. The current Saudi system is under significant pressure, primarily because of the inappropriate utilization of the rising proportion of provincial budgets and, secondarily, because of the below-intermediate quality of care provided to the population versus high government expenditure [28,29]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Background The natural assimilation of the process through which health partners sustain long-term relationships is a key issue in maintaining social well-being, reducing health risk factors, and sustaining public health programs. One global initiative in building effective healthcare systems is public-private partnerships (PPPs). This study elucidates the proposed key performance indicators initiated by the Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia based on the projections of the government, known as Vision 2030, from the perspective of health risk factors. Methods Through an inductive content analysis, this study assessed primary and secondary data in relation to the Saudi National Transformation Program (NTP). To identify the institutions that played a role in formulating the new Saudi Healthcare System, health policies, regulations, and reports published between 1996 and 2016 were categorized. After ranking the risk factors, the investigator selected 13 healthcare professionals in four focus group interviews to insightfully explore the challenges that the NTP faces from a health risk perspective. Thus, the study employed qualitative data gathered through focus group interviews with key figures as well as data extracted from written sources to identify distinct but interrelated partnerships practiced within risk management. Results A methodological overview of NTP priority and implementation offered practical guidance in the healthcare context. The five critical factors in maintaining successful and sustainable PPPs were (1) trustworthiness, (2) technological capability, (3) patient-centeredness, (4) competence, and (5) flexibility. Concession on primary and secondary healthcare services might be a good option based on the literature review and considering its popularity in other countries. A high outcome-based risk of PPPs was found as the most commonly shared perspective in risk management. Conclusions Although the impact of the NTP rise has yet to be explored, its potential for challenging health consequences requires consideration and substantial regulatory action. This study contributes to the emerging critical analysis on local health initiatives by highlighting how integration may only be possible with a more radical conceptualization of national health governance.
... On the other hand, the learning curve of wind is not so sharp, i.e., the share of PV is expected to grow year by year. Such an effect had been found for instance for the case of Ukraine [80], Saudi Arabia [81], Iran [82] and India [83]. In addition, the installation of small and utility-scale PV plants is already profitable in several countries and PV electricity generation cost is forecasted to further decrease [84]. ...
Article
In this study power generation and demand are matched through a least-cost mix of renewable energy (RE) resources and storage technologies for North America by 2030. The study is performed using an hourly resolved model based on a linear optimization algorithm. The geographical, technical and economic potentials of different forms of RE resources enable the option of building a super grid between different North American regions. North America (including the U.S., Canada and Mexico in this paper), is divided into 20 sub-regions based on their population, demand, area and electricity grid structure. Four scenarios have been evaluated: region-wide, country-wide, area-wide and an integrated scenario. The levelised cost of electricity is found to be quite attractive in such a system, with the range from 63 €/MWh el in a decentralized case and 42 €/MWh el in a more centralized and integrated scenario. Electrical grid interconnections significantly reduce the storage requirement and overall cost of the energy system. Among all RE resources, wind and solar PV are found to be the least-cost options and hence the main contributors to fossil fuel substitution. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option at a modest cost. However, such a tremendous transition will not be possible in a short time if policy-makers, energy investors and other relevant organizations do not support the proposed system.
... Methodology • The energy transition from the current fossil based power system in Saudi Arabia to a 100% RE based power system is found. In addition to the power and seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination sector discussed in [1], the current study accounts for multiple effect distillation (MED) desalination capacities and non-energetic industrial gas demand sectors of Saudi Arabia [2]. • The LUT energy model, illustrated in Fig.1, is used to identify the optimal power system for the transition from 2015 -2050, in 5 year time steps. ...
... For the gas scenario additional electricity demand results in a fast growth of PV generation capacities in all regions, especially in MENA. In other research [28] it had been found, that the year 2030 assumptions are characterized by a rough cost equilibrium for solar PV and wind, however due to progressing learning curves of PV and batteries the energy supply share of PV is expected to increase beyond 2030. ...
Conference Paper
The existing fossil fuel based power sector has to be transformed towards carbon neutrality in close future to limit global warming to 2ºC. The 100% renewable energy (RE) based system will be discussed in the paper. Such a system can be built using already existing energy generation, storage and transmission technologies. A regional integration of Europe, Eurasia and MENA energy systems will facilitate access to lower cost energy sources in neighboring regions, provide additional flexibility in the system and decrease the need in energy storage and increase the system stability because of more distributed generation. Additional demand from synthetic gas generation will additionally decrease the energy storage demand, additional flexibility enables the system to use lower cost energy sources and the primary energy generation cost decreases. Finally, such an integration can provide a sustainable and economically feasible energy system with total LCOE of about 50 €/MWh for the year 2030 cost assumptions. Even for a much higher energy demand in the system the total LCOE will be around 42 €/MWh – lower than coal-CCS or new nuclear options.
... Methodology • The energy transition from the current fossil based power system in Saudi Arabia to a 100% RE based power system is found. In addition to the power and seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination sector discussed in [1], the current study accounts for multiple effect distillation (MED) desalination capacities and non-energetic industrial gas demand sectors of Saudi Arabia [2]. • The LUT energy model, illustrated in Fig.1, is used to identify the optimal power system for the transition from 2015 -2050, in 5 year time steps. ...
Presentation
Presentation on the occasion of Energia 2016 - The Energy Event of Finland, Tampere, October 25, 2016.
Presentation
Presentation on the occasion of the World Clean Energy Conference - 25th Anniversary, Geneva, November 4, 2016.
Article
The integration of cross-sectoral energy hubs into large-scale wind farms opens up existing structures to new applications and contributes to achieving renewable energy systems and climate protection targets. The offshore energy hub concept consists in establishing an artificially constructed energy conversion and distribution hub that addresses two energy-related markets by power supply to public grids and by potentially enabling the conversion of renewable electricity into hydrogen or ammonia and supplying it ashore. Hence, the energy hub concept enables smart integration of offshore wind power into gas grids. Power generation on demand from stored green gas is able to cover residual power loads at low carbon intensity. Electrofuel production provides also the opportunity to export renewable fuels for sectors with traditionally high greenhouse gas emissions, e.g., agriculture or transportation. In this contribution an energy hub system in the North Sea is modeled and simulated to determine production quantities and efficiencies of electricity, hydrogen and ammonia. When comparing the efficiencies of production, storage, and transport values of 45.1–65% for hydrogen and values of 52–52.3% for ammonia were determined. Re-conversion to electricity with fuel cells of both hydrogen and ammonia is less efficient and cost worthly than their use in electrofuel applications. Because of emerging and potential cost reductions a sensitivity analysis is performed where lower capital costs (50%) lead to cost reductions in hydrogen (42–45%) and ammonia production (40–42%). Results show that energy hubs can become sustainable pillars in future energy systems through improving cost-competitiveness of wind power.
Article
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Concerns about climate change and increasing emission costs are drivers for new sources of fuels for Europe. Sustainable hydrocarbons can be produced synthetically by power-to-gas (PtG) and power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities, for sectors with low direct electrification such as aviation, heavy transportation and chemical industry. Hybrid PV–Wind power plants can harvest high solar and wind potentials of the Maghreb region to power these systems. This paper calculates the cost of these fuels for Europe, and presents a respective business case for the Maghreb region. Calculations are hourly resolved to find the least cost combination of technologies in a 0.45⁰ x 0.45⁰ spatial resolution. Results show that, for 7% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), renewable energy based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) and RE-diesel can be produced in 2030 for a minimum cost of 76 €/MWh,HHV (0.78 €/m3 SNG) and 88 €/MWh,HHV (0.85 €/L), respectively. While in 2040, these production costs can drop to 66 €/MWh,HHV (0.68 €/m3 SNG) and 83 €/MWhHHV (0.80 €/L), respectively. Considering access to a WACC of 5% in a de-risking project, oxygen sales and CO2 emissions costs, RE-diesel can reach fuel-parity at crude oil prices of 101 and 83 USD/bbl in 2030 and 2040, respectively. Thus, RE-synthetic fuels could be produced to answer fuel demand and remove environmental concerns in Europe at an affordable cost.
Article
The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5-year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership.
Article
Seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination is expected to play a pivotal role in helping to secure future global water supply. Whilst the global reliance on SWRO plants for water security increases, there is no consensus on how the capital costs of SWRO plants will vary in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse the past trends of the SWRO capital expenditures (capex) as the historic global cumulative online SWRO capacity increases, based on the learning curve concept. The SWRO capex learning curve is found based on 4237 plants that came online from 1977 to 2015. A learning rate of 15% is determined, implying that the SWRO capex reduced by 15% when the cumulative capacity was doubled. Based on SWRO capacity annual growth rates of 10% and 20%, by 2030, the global average capex of SWRO plants is found to fall to 1580 USD/(m3/day) and 1340 USD/(m3/day) respectively. A learning curve for SWRO capital costs has not been presented previously. This research highlights the potential for decrease in SWRO capex with the increase in installation of SWRO plants and the value of the learning curve approach to estimate future SWRO capex.
Article
Decarbonization of the power sector is a key step towards greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Due to the intermittent nature of major renewable sources like wind and solar, storage technologies will be critical in the future power grid to accommodate fluctuating generation. The storage systems will need to decouple supply and demand by shifting electrical energy on many different time scales (hourly, daily, and seasonally). Power-to-Gas can contribute on all of these time scales by producing hydrogen via electrolysis during times of excess electrical generation, and generating power with high-efficiency systems like fuel cells when wind and solar are not sufficiently available. Despite lower immediate round-trip efficiency compared to most battery storage systems, the combination of devices used in Power-to-Gas allows independent scaling of power and energy capacities to enable massive and long duration storage. This study develops and applies a model to simulate the power system balance at very high penetration of renewables. Novelty of the study is the assessment of hydrogen as the primary storage means for balancing energy supply and demand on a large scale: the California power system is analyzed to estimate the needs for electrolyzer and fuel cell systems in 100% renewable scenarios driven by large additions of wind and solar capacities. Results show that the transition requires a massive increase in both generation and storage installations, e.g., a combination of 94 GW of solar PV, 40 GW of wind, and 77 GW of electrolysis systems. A mix of generation technologies appears to reduce the total required capacities with respect to wind-dominated or solar-dominated cases. Hydrogen storage capacity needs are also evaluated and possible alternatives are discussed, including a comparison with battery storage systems.
Article
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JEL classification: Q4 Q43 Q48 H2 H23 Keywords: Energy Subsidies Causality GCC a b s t r a c t This paper investigates the impact of phasing out energy consumption subsidies on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies using causality analysis between GDP and energy consumption. The included empirical tests reveal strong support to the feedback hypothesis between the two variables for Qatar and Saudi Arabia, beyond the sample period. The same tests support the conservation hypothesis for Bahrain and Kuwait within and beyond the sample period, respectively. Furthermore, the growth hypothesis is supported for Oman beyond the sample period. Finally, the analysis of GDP-Energy causality relationship in the UAE supports the neutrality hypothesis. These results suggest that appropriate energy policies geared at phasing out subsidies, hence inducing a more efficient use of energy in this region, should be studied carefully and implemented with caution as the impacts of these policies are expected to differ among individual countries in the region. (M.A. Al Iriani), mtrabelsi@imf.org (M. Trabelsi). 1 Tel.: + 965 69 00 27 98; fax: + 965 22 24 50 55. http://dx.
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Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh⁻¹, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh⁻¹ for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (~100 gCO2eq kWh⁻¹), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.
Technical Report
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Technical Report "Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power Sector", published at the Global Renewable Energy Solutions Showcase event (GRESS), a side event of the COP23, Bonn, November 8, 2017 A global transition to 100% renewable electricity is feasible at every hour throughout the year and more cost effective than the existing system, which is largely based on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Energy transition is no longer a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but of political will. Existing renewable energy potential and technologies, including storage can generate sufficient and secure power to cover the entire global electricity demand by 2050 . The world population is expected to grow from 7.3 to 9.7 billion. The global electricity demand for the power sector is set to increase from 24,310 TWh in 2015 to around 48,800 TWh by 2050. Total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) on a global average for 100% renewable electricity in 2050 is 52 €/MWh (including curtailment, storage and some grid costs), compared to 70 €/MWh in 2015. Solar PV and battery storage drive most of the 100% renewable electricity supply due to a significant decline in costs during the transition. Due to rapidly falling costs, solar PV and battery storage increasingly drive most of the electricity system, with solar PV reaching some 69%, wind energy 18%, hydropower 8% and bioenergy 2% of the total electricity mix in 2050 globally. Wind energy increases to 32% by 2030. Beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive. Solar PV supply share increases from 37% in 2030 to about 69% in 2050. Batteries are the key supporting technology for solar PV. Storage output covers 31% of the total demand in 2050, 95% of which is covered by batteries alone. Battery storage provides mainly short-term (diurnal) storage, and renewable energy based gas provides seasonal storage. 100% renewables bring GHG emissions in the electricity sector down to zero, drastically reduce total losses in power generation and create 36 million jobs by 2050. Global greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduce from about 11 GtCO2eq in 2015 to zero emissions by 2050 or earlier, as the total LCOE of the power system declines. The global energy transition to a 100% renewable electricity system creates 36 million jobs by 2050 in comparison to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity system. Operation and maintenance jobs increase from 20% of the total direct energy jobs in 2015 to 48% of the total jobs in 2050 that implies more stable employment chances and economic growth globally. The total losses in a 100% renewable electricity system are around 26% of the total electricity demand, compared to the current system in which about 58% of the primary energy input is lost.
Article
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A recent article ‘Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems’ claims that many studies of 100% renewable electricity systems do not demonstrate sufficient technical feasibility, according to the criteria of the article's authors (henceforth ‘the authors’). Here we analyse the authors’ methodology and find it problematic. The feasibility criteria chosen by the authors are important, but are also easily addressed at low economic cost, while not affecting the main conclusions of the reviewed studies and certainly not affecting their technical feasibility. A more thorough review reveals that all of the issues have already been addressed in the engineering and modelling literature. Nuclear power, which the authors have evaluated positively elsewhere, faces other, genuine feasibility problems, such as the finiteness of uranium resources and a reliance on unproven technologies in the medium- to long-term. Energy systems based on renewables, on the other hand, are not only feasible, but already economically viable and decreasing in cost every year.
Article
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A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055", with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.
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This paper outlines how an existing energy system can be transformed into a 100% renewable energy system. The transition is divided into a number of key stages which reflect key radical technological changes on the supply side of the energy system. Ireland is used as a case study,but in reality this reflects many typical energy systems today which use power plants for electricity, individual boilers for heat, and oil for transport. The seven stages analysed are 1) reference, 2) introduction of district heating, 3) installation of small and large-scale heat pumps,4) reducing grid regulation requirements, 5) adding flexible electricity demands and electric vehicles, 6) producing synthetic methanol/DME for transport, and finally 7) using synthetic gas to replace the remaining fossil fuels. For each stage, the technical and economic performance of the energy system is calculated. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system can provide the same end-user energy demands as today’s energy system and at the same price. Electricity will be the backbone of the energy system, but the flexibility in today’s electricity sector will be transferred from the supply side of the demand side in the future. Similarly, due to changes in the type of spending required in a 100% renewable energy system, this scenario will result in the creation of 100,000 additional jobs in Ireland compared to an energy system like today’s. These results are significant since they indicate that the transition to a 100% renewable energy system can begin today, without increasing the cost of energy in the short- or long-term, if the costs currently forecasted for 2050 become a reality.
Article
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Background: Climate change is expected to bring increases in average global temperatures (1.4°C-5.8°C [34.52°F-42.44°F] by 2100) and precipitation levels to varying degrees around the globe. The availability and quality of water will be severely affected, and public health threats from the lack of this valuable resource will be great unless water-scarce nations are able to adapt. Saudi Arabia provides a good example of how the climate and unsustainable human activity go hand in hand in creating stress on and depleting water resources, and an example for adaptation and mitigation. Method: A search of the English literature addressing climate change, water scarcity, human health, and related topics was conducted using online resources and databases accessed through the University at Albany, State University of New York library web page. Results: Water scarcity, which encompasses both water availability and water quality, is an important indicator of health. Beyond drinking, water supply is intimately linked to food security, sanitation, and hygiene, which are primary contributors to the global burden of disease. Poor and disadvantaged populations are the ones who will suffer most from the negative effects of climate change on water supply and associated human health issues. Examples of adaptation and mitigation measures that can help reduce the strain on conventional water resources (surface waters and fossil aquifers or groundwater) include desalination, wastewater recycling and reuse, and outsourcing food items or "virtual water trade." These are strategies being used by Saudi Arabia, a country that is water poor primarily due to decades of irresponsible irrigation practices. The human and environmental health risks associated with these adaptation measures are examined. Finally, strategies to protect human health through international collaboration and the importance of these efforts are discussed. Conclusion: International, multidisciplinary cooperation and collaboration will be needed to promote global water security and to protect human health, particularly in low-income countries that do not have the resources necessary to adapt on their own.
Article
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Mediterranean (South of Europe) and MENA regions are increasingly facing the lack of fresh water supplies. They have high solar radiation levels, which make them good candidates for the development and installation of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants. Therefore, cogeneration of electricity and fresh water using CSP with desalination plants (CSP+D) can be proposed as a sustainable option for these regions.
Article
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Water is one of the pressing global challenges facing humanity. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, it is considered as the most critical challenges and is expected to grow with time. GCC countries have chosen desalination as the strategic water resource option and is, therefore, the world largest desalinated water producing regions. The objective of this study is to explore the current desalination technologies and their respective energy demands in GCC countries with different alternatives to reduce energy consumption. The paper presents and analyzes the present and the future prospective of water production rates and trends as well as the corresponding energy consumptions. The recent and historical desalination operational data have been studied and analysed and the results were presented using forecasted published data, up to the year 2025. Areas of possible efficiency improvements and reduction in the specific power consumption of the main commercially used desalination technologies; thermal (Multi Stage Flash (MSF) and Multiple Effect Distillation (MED)) and membrane (Reverse Osmosis (RO)) including the rehabilitation of present operating plants are presented. In addition, alternative energy sources such as renewable and nuclear as well as new desalination technologies of potential commercialization are also highlighted.
Article
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Saudi Arabia is one of the driest countries in the world. While desalination plants currently installed in the country represent 30% of the world's desalination capacity, seawater desalination alone will not be able to provide sufficient supplies to meet the increasing freshwater demand. However, with only 9% of the total municipal wastewater generated currently being reused, the kingdom is projected as the third largest reuse market after China and the USA, and reuse capacities are projected to increase by 800% by 2016. This projected growth and the change in water portfolios offer tremendous opportunities to integrate novel approaches of water reclamation and reuse. This paper highlights the current status of reuse in the kingdom, discusses prospects of using distributed infrastructure for reuse tailored to local needs as well as the use of artificial recharge and recovery systems for reclaimed water. It also suggests research needs to helping overcoming barriers for wastewater reuse.
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One of the major difficulties in the assessment of costs of desalination projects is that key investment parameters and operation-related parameters are project-specific data. This information is commonly not in the public domain and is generally available only to the general contractor. In addition, the interpretation of published data is complicated by the fact that often plant boundaries are not clearly indicated (e.g. if the intake cost and the pipeline cost to and from the plant are included in the evaluation). Finally, the analysis involves an elevate number of design parameters, such as plant capacity and configuration, metal and other material prices, and very site-specific conditions (seawater quality, feed water intake, and brine discharge). In the end, these issues result in difficult comparability of data from different sources about the cost of the desalinated water. This paper deals with the implementation of a flexible techno-economic model for the assessment of desalination plants on system analysis level. Thereby, the focus is given to units driven by different technologies (conventional steam turbines and concentrating solar power). The model is applied in a case study in order to evaluate and compare the performance and the costs of different desalination technologies (multiple effect distillation and reverse osmosis). Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to selected key design parameters is carried out.
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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the largest nation in the Arabian Peninsula is divided into 13 regions, which are of different development levels in terms of both population and public utility infrastructure. More than the other regions, population is high in Al-Riyadh, Makkah Al-Mokarramah, and the Eastern Region, due to urbanization. The current analysis of census results is aimed at understanding (i) regional variations in population and households and (ii) house ownership, type of housing, and housing infrastructure.
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Desalination has now become one of the major water treatment processes in several countries around the world where shortage of water is a serious problem. Energy consumption is a vital economic factor in selecting the type of desalination processes because current desalination processes require large amount of energy which is costly. Multi-effect desalination system with thermal vapor compression (MED-TVC) is particularly more attractive than other thermal desalination systems due to its low energy consumption. MED-TVC is characterized by high performance ratio, easier operation, low maintenance requirements and simple geometry. These attractive features make MED-TVC highly competitive to other well-established desalination techniques that include the reverse osmosis and multi-stage flash desalination. The primary goal of this paper is to present a preview of some aspects related with the theory of the technology, parametric study of the MED-TVC systems and its development. It will analyze the current and future aspects of the MED-TVC technology in view of latest installed plants.
Article
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The continued rise of electricity demand in Saudi Arabia means that power generation must expand. Conventional generation is a major cause of environmental pollution and negatively impacts human health through greenhouse gas emissions. It is therefore essential that an alternative method of generation is found that preserves the environment and health and that would support existing conventional generation during peak hours. Saudi Arabia is suitable geographically because it is located in the so-called sun belt, which has led it to become one of the largest solar energy producers. Solar energy is a serious competitor to conventional generation when the indirect costs of fossil fuels are included. Thus, processing sunlight via photovoltaic cells is an important method of generating clean energy. This article proves that the cost of the solar energy will be less than the cost of the fossil fuel energy if the cost of the environmental and health damages are taken into account.
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A thermodynamic study is performed on a Reverse Osmosis (RO) desalination unit with and without energy recovery device. Such a study is based on the application of mass and energy balances on each subsystem as well as on the whole unit and using the properties of saltwater modelled as ideal solution. Three configurations of the desalination unit are considered. The first configuration includes a throttling valve in the rejection of concentrated brine side while the two others incorporate a hydraulic turbine and a pressure exchanger system (PES) respectively. The results show the variation of several performance indicators with several variables such as the feed salinity and temperature and the applied pressure. Examples of these indicators are the specific energy consumption (expressed in kWh/m3 of fresh water produced) and the recovery ratio. The results show the importance of incorporating an energy recovery device when the feed salinity is high. Besides, a theoretical minimum specific energy consumption was obtained and presented for the cases with and without pressure exchanger system.
Article
The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5-year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership.
Article
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report emphasizes the importance of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage for achieving climate goals, but it does not identify solar energy as a strategically important technology option. That is surprising given the strong growth, large resource, and low environmental footprint of photovoltaics (PV). Here we explore how models have consistently underestimated PV deployment and identify the reasons for underlying bias in models. Our analysis reveals that rapid technological learning and technology-specific policy support were crucial to PV deployment in the past, but that future success will depend on adequate financing instruments and the management of system integration. We propose that with coordinated advances in multiple components of the energy system, PV could supply 30–50% of electricity in competitive markets.
Article
The clean energy transition requires a co-evolution of innovation, investment, and deployment strategies for emerging energy storage technologies. A deeply decarbonized energy system research platform needs materials science advances in battery technology to overcome the intermittency challenges of wind and solar electricity. Simultaneously, policies designed to build market growth and innovation in battery storage may complement cost reductions across a suite of clean energy technologies. Further integration of R&D and deployment of new storage technologies paves a clear route toward cost-effective low-carbon electricity. Here we analyse deployment and innovation using a two-factor model that integrates the value of investment in materials innovation and technology deployment over time from an empirical dataset covering battery storage technology. Complementary advances in battery storage are of utmost importance to decarbonization alongside improvements in renewable electricity sources. We find and chart a viable path to dispatchable US$1 W−1 solar with US$100 kWh−1 battery storage that enables combinations of solar, wind, and storage to compete directly with fossil-based electricity options.
Article
The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable , universally accessible, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy system is simulated for SAARC for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand, and showed the system cost decreased by 5% and total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. One of the limitations of this study is the cost of land for installation of renewables which is not included in the LCOE calculations, but regarded as a minor contribution.
Article
Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain. Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that, regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh−1 for installed stationary systems and US$175 ± 25 kWh−1 for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment of material and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175–510 billion would be needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027–2040 based on market growth projections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further study by industry, policymakers and academics.
Article
Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-togas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination and 640 TWh LHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the leve-lized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWh LHV and 0.91 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system.
Conference Paper
A vast potential of renewable energy sources and a supportive regulatory environment that has been encouraging investments on renewable energy (RE) are driving the development of non-hydro renewable energy generation in South American countries. Therefore, the possibility to build cost competitive independent 100% RE systems is becoming a reality in a near future. New energy systems based on 100% RE in the year 2030 were calculated for South America using an hourly resolved energy system model. The region was subdivided into 15 sub-regions and three different grid development levels were considered in three different scenarios. The integration of reverse osmosis water desalination and industrial natural gas electricity demand was studied in a forth scenario. The results show that different grid development levels lead to different optimal system designs and total electricity generation. However, all the studied scenarios are able to supply 1813 TWh of electricity, what corresponds to the electricity demand of the area in 2030. The integrated scenario is able to generate also the amount of electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m 3 of water desalination demand and 640 TWhLHV demand of synthetic natural gas. For energy storage, hydro dams will operate similar to battery storages diminishing the role of power-togas systems for seasonal storage, especially in a highly centralized grid scenario. In terms of cost, the total system levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is quite low for all the analyzed scenarios: it decreased from 62 €/MWh (for a highly decentralized grid scenario) to 56 €/MWh (for a highly centralized grid scenario). The integration of desalination and power-togas into the system has increased the system's flexibility and efficient usage of storage, reducing the total cost in 8% and the electric energy generation in 5%. From the results it can be concluded that 100% RE-based system is feasible for the year 2030 and with the cost assumptions used in this study more cost competitive than other existing alternatives.
Article
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Conference Paper
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
Conference Paper
The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable, access to all, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim of electricity generation. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy based system is simulated for this region for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis for an entire year. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand which was reflected as the system cost decreased by 5% and the total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy based system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than the nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
Conference Paper
The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy (RE) sources more important than in the past. COP21 resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the 21st century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. To be more precise, whenever the costs of renewable resources decrease, the interest in using them increases. Therefore, suppliers and decision-makers have recently been motivated to invest in RE rather than fossil fuels technologies even though large untapped fossil fuel resources are available. Among RE technologies, Iran has a very high potential for solar energy, followed by wind, and complemented by hydropower, geothermal energy, biomass and waste-to-energy. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% RE system in Iran using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of RE technologies, least cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a country-wide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the country-wide scenario, RE generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand, however, in the integrated scenario, the RE generated was able to fulfil not only the electricity demand of the power sector but also the substantial demand for electricity for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding the sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 €/MWh to 40.3 €/MWh. The LCOE of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison to other low-carbon but high cost alternatives such as CCS and nuclear energy. The levelized cost of water and the levelized cost of gas are 1.5 €/m3 and 107.8 €/MWhLHV, respectively. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option.
Conference Paper
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, comprised of 19 countries, is currently facing a serious challenge to supply their growing economies with secure, affordable and clean electricity. The MENA region holds a high share of proven crude oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Further, it is predicted to have increasing population growth, energy demand, urbanization and industrialization, each of which necessitates a comparable expansion of infrastructure, resulting in further increased energy demand. When planning this expansion, the effects of climate change, land use change and desertification must be taken into account. The MENA region has an excellent potential of renewable energy (RE) resources, particularly solar PV and wind energy, which can evolve to be the main future energy sources in this area. In addition, the costs of RE are expected to decrease relative to conventional energy sources, making a transition to RE across the region economically feasible. The main objective of this paper is to assume a 100% RE-based system for the MENA region in 2030 and to evaluate its results from different perspectives. Three scenarios have been evaluated according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels, including a region-wide, area-wide and integrated scenario. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is found to be 61 €/MWhel in a decentralized scenario. However, it is observed that this amount decreases to 55 €/MWhel in a more centralized HVDC grid connected scenario. In the integrated scenario, which consists of industrial gas production and reverse osmosis water desalination demand, integration of new sectors provides the system with required flexibility and increases the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. Therefore, the LCOE declines to 37 €/MWhel and the total electricity generation is decreased by 6% in the system compared to the non-integrated sectors. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is feasible and a real policy option.
Article
This paper investigates the impact of phasing out energy consumption subsidies on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies using causality analysis between GDP and energy consumption. The included empirical tests reveal strong support to the feedback hypothesis between the two variables for Qatar and Saudi Arabia, beyond the sample period. The same tests support the conservation hypothesis for Bahrain and Kuwait within and beyond the sample period, respectively. Furthermore, the growth hypothesis is supported for Oman beyond the sample period. Finally, the analysis of GDP-Energy causality relationship in the UAE supports the neutrality hypothesis. These results suggest that appropriate energy policies geared at phasing out subsidies, hence inducing a more efficient use of energy in this region, should be studied carefully and implemented with caution as the impacts of these policies are expected to differ among individual countries in the region.
Conference Paper
In recent years, PV technology has experienced a rapid cost reduction. This trend is expected to continue, which in many countries drives interest in utility-scale PV power plants. The main disadvantage of such plants is that they operate only when the sun is shining. The installation of PV modules together with energy storage and/or fossil fuel backup is a way to solve that issue, but consequently increases the costs. In the last few years, however, lithium-ion batteries as well have shown a promising price reduction. This paper studies the competitiveness of a hybrid power plant that combines a PV system, lithium-ion battery and gas turbine (GT) compared to conventional fossil-fuel power plants (coal and natural gas-fired) with focus on the battery cost. To fulfil the demand an auxiliary GT is used in the hybrid PV plant, but its annual generation is limited to 20% of the total output. The metric for the comparison of the different technologies is the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The installation of the plants is showcased in Morocco, a country with excellent solar resources. Future market scenarios for 2020 and 2030 are considered. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the key parameters that influence LCOE.
Article
This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m3/day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m3–2.81 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
Article
In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
Conference Paper
Increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including the fossil fuel based energy sector, emerge the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system as the way to stop pollution and global warming but also to reduce total energy system cost. Small population density and availability of various types of RE resources in Eurasian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising project of building a Super Grid connecting different Eurasian regions' energy resources to reach synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. For every sub-region it is defined a cost-optimal distributed and centralized mix of energy technologies and storage options, optimal capacities and hourly generation. Charge and discharge profiles of storages are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. System cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed. The results show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
Article
Power-to-gas (PtG) technology has received considerable attention in recent years. However, it has been rather difficult to find profitable business models and niche markets so far. PtG systems can be applied in a broad variety of input and output conditions, mainly determined by prices for electricity, hydrogen, oxygen, heat, natural gas, bio-methane, fossil CO2 emissions, bio-CO2 and grid services, but also full load hours and industrial scaling. Optimized business models are based on an integrated value chain approach for a most beneficial combination of input and output parameters. The financial success is evaluated by a standard annualized profit and loss calculation and a subsequent return on equity consideration. Two cases of PtG integration into an existing pulp mill as well as a nearby bio-diesel plant are taken into account. Commercially available PtG technology is found to be profitable in case of a flexible operation mode offering electricity grid services. Next generation technology, available at the end of the 2010s, in combination with renewables certificates for the transportation sector could generate a return on equity of up to 100% for optimized conditions in an integrated value chain approach. This outstanding high profitability clearly indicates the potential for major PtG markets to be developed rather in the transportation sector and chemical industry than in the electricity sector as seasonal storage option as often proposed.
Research
Poster on the occasion of the 2nd International Conference on Desalination using Membrane Technology in Singapore on July 26 - 29, 2015.
Article
Economic diversification is important for building sustainable economic growth. Thus, an economy that is highly dependent on income from a natural resource is in danger of instability or even collapse if the price of such commodity decreases in the global market. Additionally, economic diversification contributes positively to creating jobs, fighting corruption, and improving the institutional quality of countries. The Saudi government has issued 10 development plans since 1970, each covering five years, and economic diversification is a main objective of all these plans. This paper examines the government׳s efforts to diversify the economy using four variables: oil share of gross domestic product (GDP), share of private sector in GDP, oil exports as a percentage of the country׳s exports, and oil revenues as a percentage of total revenues. The current analysis covers nine development plans from 1970 through 2013. The analysis concludes that, after more than 40 years of development plans aiming to diversify the Saudi economy, oil is still the main engine driving the economy. The Saudi government needs to fully consider economic diversification as a tool for better governance.
Conference Paper
Power-to-gas (PtG) technology has received considerable attention in recent years. However, it has been rather difficult to find profitable business models and niche markets so far. PtG systems can be applied in a broad variety of input and output conditions, mainly determined by prices for electricity, hydrogen, oxygen, heat, natural gas, bio-methane, fossil CO2 emissions, bio-CO2 and grid services, but also full load hours and industrial scaling. Optimized business models are based on an integrated value chain approach for a most beneficial combination of input and output parameters. The financial success is evaluated by a standard annualized profit and loss calculation and a subsequent return on equity consideration. Two cases of PtG integration into an existing pulp mill as well as a nearby bio-diesel plant are taken into account. Commercially available PtG technology is found to be profitable in case of a flexible operation mode offering electricity grid services. Next generation technology, available at the end of the 2010s, in combination with renewables certificates for the transportation sector could generate a return on equity of up to 100% for optimized conditions in an integrated value chain approach. This outstanding high profitability clearly indicates the potential for major PtG markets to be developed rather in the transportation sector and chemical industry than in the electricity sector as seasonal storage option as often proposed.
Conference Paper
The excellent solar resources of Israel make it possible to reach the target of 100% RE, independent of fossil fuel supply in a rather close future. For now the development of large PV capacities is restrained by battery storage costs: before reaching a cost level of 200 €/kWh, batteries are not competitive and installations of thermal storages and CSP are cost optimal. The role of CSP remains unclear; however, the high competitiveness of PV-battery may limit CSP to a minor role. PV self-consumption plays a significant role in the energy transformation in Israel.
Article
Increased water demand and increased drought episodes in the Middle East and other regions necessitate an expansion in desalination projects and create a great market opportunity for photovoltaics (PV). PV-powered desalination has previously been regarded as not being a cost-competitive solution when compared with conventionally powered desalination; however, the decline in PV costs over the last few years has changed this outlook. This paper presents up-to-date performance and cost analysis of reverse osmosis (RO) desalination powered with PV connected to the Saudi Arabian grid. Reference cases include relatively small (i.e., producing 6550 m³ water per day) and large (i.e., 190 000 m³/day) desalination plants using seawater at a salinity of 40 000 ppm. We used data from a King Abdullah University for Science and Technology presentation and Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables 2.81 Energy Modeling Software (HOMER Energy LLC) in tandem with Desalination Economic Evaluation Program 4.0 (International Atomic Energy Agency) desalination software to analyze the techno-economic feasibility of these plants. The first phase of our work entailed a comparison between dual-axis high concentration PV (CPV) equipped with triple junction III/V solar cells and CdTe PV-powered RO systems. The estimated levelized cost of electricity from CPV is $0.16/kWh, whereas that from CdTe PV is $0.10/kWh and $0.09/kWh for fixed-tilt and one-axis tracking systems, respectively. These costs are higher than the price of diesel-based grid electricity in the region because diesel fuel is heavily subsidized in Saudi Arabia.
Article
Price declines and volume growth of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems are analysed using the learning curve methodology and compared with other forms of solar electricity generation. Logarithmic regression analysis determines a learning rate of 18% for CPV systems with 90% confidence of that rate being between 14 and 22%, which is higher than the learning rates of other solar generation systems (11% for CSP and 12 to 14% for PV). Current CPV system prices are competitive with PV and CSP, which, when combined with the higher learning rate, indicates that CPV is likely to further improve its marketability. A target price of 1 $/W in 2020 could be achieved with a compound growth rate of 67% for the total deployed volume between 2014 and 2020, which would realize a cumulative deployed volume of 7900 MW. Other projections of deployment volumes from commercial sources are converted using the learning rate into future price scenarios, resulting in predicted prices in the range of 1.1 to 1.3 $/W in 2020. © 2014 The Authors. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Conference Paper
Annual available solar resource is dependent on global horizontal irradiation (GHI) and PV systems. Relevant tracking and non-tracking PV systems are presented based on Hay-Davis-Klucher-Reindl (HDKR) approach. Results of the analysis are shown for all PV systems and all regions in the world. Solar resources are weighted by global population distribution, regarded per country, continent and region and compared to area weighted, maximum and minimum irradiation per geographic entity. Global electricity weighted irradiation for fixed optimally tilted PV systems is about 1,690 kWh/m²/y, significantly less than global population and area weighted irradiation of about 1,850 and 1,780 kWh/m²/y, respectively.
Article
This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
Article
Desalination capacity has rapidly increased in the last decade because of the increase in water demand and a significant reduction in desalination cost as a result of significant technological advances, especially in the reverse osmosis process. The cost of desalinated seawater has fallen below US$0.50/m3 for a large scale seawater reverse osmosis plant at a specific location and conditions while in other locations the cost is 50% higher (US$1.00/m3) for a similar facility. In addition to capital and operating costs, other parameters such as local incentives or subsidies may also contribute to the large difference in desalted water cost between regions and facilities. Plant suppliers and consultants have their own cost calculation methodologies, but they are confidential and provide water costs with different accuracies. The few existing costing methodologies and software packages such as WTCost© and DEEP provide an estimated cost with different accuracies and their applications are limited to specific conditions. Most of the available cost estimation tools are of the black box type, which provide few details concerning the parameters and methodologies applied for local conditions. Many desalination plants built recently have greater desalinated water delivery costs caused by special circumstances, such as plant remediation or upgrades, local variation in energy costs, and site-specific issues in raw materials costs (e.g., tariffs and transportation). Therefore, the availability of a more transparent and unique methodology for estimating the cost will help in selecting an appropriate desalination technology suitable for specific locations with consideration of all the parameters influencing the cost. A techno-economic evaluation and review of the costing aspects and the main parameters influencing the total water cost produced by different desalination technologies are herein presented in detail. Some recent developments, such as the increase of unit capacity, improvements in process design and materials, and the use of hybrid systems have contributed to cost reduction as well as reduction in energy consumption. The development of new and emerging low-energy desalination technologies, such as adsorption desalination, will have an impact on cost variation estimation in the future.
Article
Desalination technologies improve water quality, greatly reduce water shortage problems, and improve quality of life and economic status. Two main technologies are currently used in water desalination: thermal (phase-change) processes and membrane processes. The primary thermal distillation processes include multistage flash distillation (MSF), multi-effect distillation (MED), and vapor compression (VC). The VC process encompasses two types: mechanical (MVC) and thermal (TVC). The common membrane desalination processes include reverse osmosis (RO) and electrodialysis (ED and EDR).