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A Leader's Framework for Decision Making: Wise executives tailor their approach to fit the complexity of the circumstances they face
... 16 As noted, the three sets of conceptual, operational and procedural challenges associated with incorporating sustainability in assessment methods and processes discussed above are all, to some extent, reflected in existing research studies. However, while examining them I identified a clear gap in this literature, namely in terms of how transport appraisal processes could incorporate explicitly the interests of future generations 12 . ...
... After all, I may sacrifice my life in loyalty to the Founding Fathers -or, for that matter, on behalf of future generations." (Berger and Luckmann 1966) 12 The discounting factor used in economic appraisal offers another methodological entry to address the balance between present and future generation's wellbeing within conventional project appraisal. Various solutions, such as lowering, dividing or differentiating the discount rate over time have been proposed (see e.g Chichilnisky 1996, Jonsson, 2008), and in some cases also implemented in national frameworks. ...
... This Sustainability should be explicitly conceptualized, with a firm grounding in sustainable development theory (3,5). The conceptualization should be comprehensive in addressing all relevant factors, reflecting fundamental and nonnegotiable principles of sustainability (2,12). A holistic perspective on sustainability recognizes the transport system as a complex and dynamic aspect of larger social, environmental, economic, and governance systems (2,12). ...
Credibly demonstrating actual progress towards a genuinely sustainable transport situation remains a challenge. A key problem is that the incorporation of sustainability in transport policy and planning at present is not systematic.
A motivating assumption behind this thesis is that a transition toward a sustainable transport system will require strong support from decision-support processes and assessment tools that do not only adopt the language of sustainability, but fully integrate an explicit notion of sustainability in all of their conceptual, operational and procedural approaches. There is therefore a general need to improve processes, methods and tools applied in transport infrastructure decision making so as to make them more resonant to the needs of both current and future generations corresponding to the fundamental definition of sustainable development.
The core focus of the thesis is on how to ensure project impacts in terms of sustainability are identified and become inputs to decision making.
The benefits of increased mobility based on speed and capacity are significant and visible, creating a wide range of reachable activities for a great number of people. Negative externalities of transport systems such as accidents, local air pollution and noise have long been monetised and accounted for in conventional transport project appraisal. But the transport sector today (in Denmark, in the EU and globally) is also an increasingly large contributor to the two core planetary boundaries of climate change and biosphere integrity. Such wider, more complex and longer terms effects that are also external to local interests and market transactions are not only increasingly observed in transport but are also far less well accounted for. The risk here is that evidence-based decision-making becomes discredited, as was already found to be the case for high-speed rail appraisal in the UK, which is the most important case analysed in this thesis.
This thesis contributes to the following three challenges: the overarching conceptualisation of sustainable development as an ethos for transport infrastructure policy, the operational specifics of impact assessment based on indicators and methods for their prioritisation, and stakeholder representations applied in assessment procedures, with a particular focus on creating a explicit ‘future generations’ viewpoint. The research takes a starting point in Sustainable Transport Indicator Frameworks (STIFs), then expands to decision-support processes and assessment tools, and finally explores issues relevant for the wider field of transport planning and decision-making.
A main underlying concern of the research is to develop new thinking and assessment methods that bridge the techno-rationalist//instrumental approach of conventional impact assessment tools with a wider communicative planning rationality. This is needed because of the complex, dynamic and interdependent nature of transport planning and decision-making.
Methods
This thesis draws from multiple research methods which are both qualitative and quantitative. For the conceptual work, I rely on purposive literature reviews, including extensive reviews on sustainability theory and the implication of this body of knowledge for sustainable transport, as well as a detailed review of selected literature on the topic of sustainable transport indicator frameworks. Case study work draws upon extensive desktop-based analysis of impact assessment reports and other publicly available material about real cases of large transport infrastructure appraisals. The HS2 high-speed rail (HSR) project appraisal in the UK is used as a case study in three of the articles that compose this thesis, first because of the long tradition for comprehensive and open appraisal processes in the UK, and second for the significant wider environmental, social and economic impacts of the scheme, which is an opportunity to examine sustainability in the context of transport appraisal in more detail.
The work specifically concerned with the elaboration of assessment tools and decision-support processes is based on an adaptation of multi-criteria analysis tools (MCA) and more particularly on the Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) approach, which gives more prominence to the explicit integration of stakeholders in transport project appraisal. Empirical work was conducted ex-post and consists of structured interviews based on online questionnaires following standard MCA steps. Finally in order to complement the research I also conduct exploratory work consisting of face-to-face unstructured interviews and structured observation of passengers’ activities in actual high-speed rail trips in the UK.
Results
The first article in this thesis develops a metaframework for what should inform the analysis and eventually the design of STIFs. The article identifies and describes a total of 21 ‘metacriteria’ that are grouped based on the framework function they are contributing to. Going beyond indicators, this article led to examining in more detail issues related to prioritising sustainability impacts, capturing trade-offs in the long term, and informing strategic sustainable transport choices, which are also relevant for other assessment and decision-support tools.
The second and third articles investigate the conceptual foundations and address the operational challenges in incorporating a sustainability viewpoint using multi-criteria analysis tools (MCA). The nested model of sustainability is found to be a useful approximation of strong sustainability principles when used as guidance for prioritising impacts. However a key contribution of these articles is the implementation of a ‘future generations’ stakeholder in transport appraisal processes, which in turn is proposed as a key feature for sustainable transport appraisal (STA) processes. One practical outcome of the research is a comprehensive list of project impacts for ex-ante assessment of large transport infrastructure projects like HSR. Structured interviews based on an online questionnaire are also found to be well adapted to the challenge of addressing biases in expert- and stakeholder-based assessment methods. This approach provides a means to both address the need for quantifying and comparing complex impacts between various options, and to enable the systematic inclusion of stakeholders, therefore allowing for a level of reflexivity and ‘democratic renewal’ in appraisal processes.
In the fourth article, the issue of trade-offs between the two interrelated issues of biosphere integrity and climate change is investigated in more detail, where it is shown that current state-of-the-art decision-support processes and assessment tools lack formal ways of dealing with complex impacts with local and global implications that unfold over long periods of time. And finally the last article is a more conceptual piece that adopts a critical view on the historic emphasis for minimising travel time in transport planning, and contributes to a better understanding of the value of travel time from a traveller’s perspective. The concept of reasonable travel time (RTT) is introduced, where travel time is reframed based on the traveller’s experience of time in a total door-to-door journey. It is expected that RTT could lead to different thinking about the effectiveness of future transport investments, which is particularly relevant in a technological age where the overall quality of travel time can bring positive outcomes without necessarly changing the quantity.
Taken together, the articles and chapters that compose this thesis contribute to defining the emerging field of ‘sustainable transport appraisal’. STA goes beyond the instrumental approach of conventional transport impact assessment methods that attempt to reduce, measure and forecast impacts in a cool, dispassionate way. It does so by adopting sustainability as an explicit goal based on first-order principles, by integrating stakeholder perspectives in the decision-making process, and by incorporating the interests of future generations. Moving from impact assessment tools to appraisal processes means refocusing transport planning on decision-support and decision-making, which are technical and political endeavours that cannot easily be separated.
... Key leadership decision making as outlined by the work of Snowden and Boone (2007) in the Cynefin Model (See Figure 2) allows for the understanding of decision making by leaders in complex known and unknown situations. It outlines a framework for managing in the context of complexity, which allows executives to see things from new viewpoints, assimilate complex concepts, and address real-world problems and opportunities. ...
... This enhances communication and helps executives rapidly understand the context in which they are operating (Snowden & Bone, 2007, p.1-2). (Snowden & Boone, 2007) This model serves as a guide to leadership decision making in the context of a problem they may face. There are five options from which to choose and act, the first four-namely simple, complicated, complex, and chaotic-require a leader to diagnose and then act, and the fifth domain occurs when any of the four contexts are unclear. ...
... There are five options from which to choose and act, the first four-namely simple, complicated, complex, and chaotic-require a leader to diagnose and then act, and the fifth domain occurs when any of the four contexts are unclear. In a complex environment, leaders need to communicate well, not dictate a predetermined solution; leaders need to allow for patterns to emerge to allow for next steps to become evident, through what Snowden and Boone (2007) call "probe, sense, and respond" (p.5). This is different than coming up with a solution to a problem and asking others to act. ...
Complexity is a phenomenon found in nature and science. The study of human social behavior and complexity is becoming more widely understood. Complexity science with the understanding of how individuals interact and adapt within complex systems has been studied across many business sectors. Healthcare has been identified as a complex system, however, the research and the behaviors of leaders have not taken the foothold for progress and change like it has in other business sectors. While many have identified the need for change such as the Institute of Medicine’s Quality Chasm Report and the Triple Aim imperative, the amount of disruption needed for effective outcomes to occur, has not been seen in the US healthcare delivery system. This capstone addresses one area of healthcare where promising results have shown impact. The results suggest that emotional intelligence gained through executive coaching with senior leaders helps them gain perspective and understanding of themselves and others to lead the way for change; positive leadership behaviors, in turn affect the broader organization and the landscape of healthcare itself. With that, there is promise that leaders may be able to create the path forward for making the nation and the world a healthier place.
... This simplification of storm events can result in chaotic responses to and inadequate management of events that occur outside the design storm parameters. Thus, the impetus exists for us to reshape our thinking and design principles for the complex (i.e., systems and situations characterized by constant flux and ambiguity where emergent patterns lead to unpredictability) rather than the complicated (i.e., systems and situations characterized by relatively well understood cause and effect relationships where optimization and efficiency are often core operating principles) (Chester & Allenby, 2019;Helmrich & Chester, 2020;Snowden & Boone, 2007). In order to better account and design for the complex domain (as opposed to the complicated domain), incorporating capabilities for experimentation and continuous performance evaluation (i.e., "probing") of various options will become increasingly valuable (Chester & Allenby, 2019;Snowden & Boone, 2007)-further highlighting the promise of approaches like digital twin cities and robust decision making. ...
... Thus, the impetus exists for us to reshape our thinking and design principles for the complex (i.e., systems and situations characterized by constant flux and ambiguity where emergent patterns lead to unpredictability) rather than the complicated (i.e., systems and situations characterized by relatively well understood cause and effect relationships where optimization and efficiency are often core operating principles) (Chester & Allenby, 2019;Helmrich & Chester, 2020;Snowden & Boone, 2007). In order to better account and design for the complex domain (as opposed to the complicated domain), incorporating capabilities for experimentation and continuous performance evaluation (i.e., "probing") of various options will become increasingly valuable (Chester & Allenby, 2019;Snowden & Boone, 2007)-further highlighting the promise of approaches like digital twin cities and robust decision making. The integration of "probing" into the design process has the added benefit of helping to move our thinking and understanding of resilience away from a static outcome and toward a more dynamic and active process that involves sensing, anticipating, adapting, and learning (Park et al., 2013;Seager et al., 2017). ...
Design storm criteria (i.e., the specific intensity and/or frequency to which infrastructure systems are designed to withstand) are a critical part of resilience efforts within urban and infrastructure systems. However, factors like climate change and increasing complexity within our urban systems call into question the viability of current approaches to and implementation of design storm criteria moving forward. This paper seeks to identify design practices and strategies that are well-suited for the increasingly complex and rapidly changing contexts in which our cities and infrastructure are operating. We posit that the advancement of a multi-scalar perspective on resilience will be increasingly necessary in response to the growing challenges our cities and infrastructure face. At the scale of single components/sub-systems, return periods (or similar criteria) will likely remain a necessary element of the design process. At the scale of the entire system(s), approaches like safe-to-fail, robust decision making, and enhanced sensing and simulation appear well suited for complementing existing approaches by more explicitly considering failure consequences in the design and management processes. Ultimately, this paper seeks to spur continual research and advancement of these topics in order to facilitate the evolution of the design storm process for an increasingly complex and non-stationary world.
... As we move from the hard sciences to the social sciences, knowledge moves from being objective to subjective (Brier, 2008). In social sciences, people are the subject of study and this moves us into the realm of complexity (Schneider et al., 2016;Griffin & Stacey, 2005;Stacey, 1996), as individuals' unpredictability and intellect make it impossible to model human behavior (Snowden & Boone, 2007) and establish a universal rule predicting future behavior. In this sense, complexity refers to the number of elements involved in a system and/or the environment of a system, as well as to the relations between these elements (Schneider et al., 2016). ...
... As Snowden and Boone (2007) state, although simplification may be applicable in ordered situations, in more complex contexts simplification may fail. So, as suggested in the next section, differentiating informed actions from wise actions may provide insight into the query. ...
How to manage uncertain and unpredictable situations has been a major challenge facing managers and academics for decades. The development of practice and theory in knowledge management has been one important response. This chapter, however, argues that knowledge and knowledge management may not be sufficient when dealing with emergent and unforeseen situations as knowledge tends to be past-oriented in terms of its formative components, while emergent situations are future-oriented, which may or may not be rooted in the past. Therefore, authors explore this past-present-future conundrum by explaining how mere reliance on the past may restrict organizations' ability to deal with emergent situations in the future. Finally, the role of innovation and wisdom will be introduced as a bridge connecting current past-oriented knowledge to unknown and unpredictable future-oriented events.
... Detail and dynamic complexity taken together imply that the behaviour of a system cannot be reduced to the sum of its parts. A wicked problem is thus unique, and offers little opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, although patterns can emerge as opportunities to learn [12]. ...
... These preferences are "dependent on the issues raised and debated"; they depend on the various interpretations of the problems, which are not immediately obvious but must be "shaped and discovered" (citing Habermas [11]). Complex contexts therefore require more interactive communication than more simple domains where cause-and-effect relationships are more evident or discoverable [12]. ...
Rail has traditionally been seen as 'good' for the environment, as it is fast and efficient with a low carbon footprint. With respect to HS2 in the UK, new environmental debates have arisen over the competing global objectives of reducing the carbon footprint of HSR and the need to maintain and enhance local biodiversity and habitat. This paper identifies, measures and comments on the longer term environmental consequences of major infrastructure decisions that have to be made today. Short term pragmatism is seen as the means by which these decisions are made, and this results in issues relating to the complexity and uncertainty in assessing future impacts being relegated to a secondary level of importance. Mitigation measures (and not alternative routes) are discussed, and the legacy value of HSR to future generations is based on notions of short term mobility and economic growth, and not on the lower levels of carbon emissions and biodiversity loss.
... Snowden and Boone (2007) ont établi une grille permettant de distinguer les différents contextes dans lesquels les acteurs sont appelés à intervenir. Or, plus le contexte d'intervention s'avère complexe, comme c'est le cas en ce qui concerne les comportements sociaux, moins l'utilisation des L'apport de la criminologie critique à l'élaboration d'une clinique en criminologie 117 ...
... Second, while we tested our hypotheses in a typical two-stage decision-making process, there are more complicated decision-making processes in actual organizational settings [80,81]. For example, in personnel selection, individuals also have to receive an evaluation at an assessment center after their initial screening interview and later target interview [82,83]. ...
Artificial intelligence (AI) has fundamentally changed the way people live and has largely reshaped organizational decision-making processes. Particularly, AI decision making has become involved in almost every aspect of human resource management, including recruiting, selecting, motivating, and retaining employees. However, existing research only considers single-stage decision-making processes and overlooks more common multistage decision-making processes. Drawing upon person-environment fit theory and the algorithm reductionism perceptive, we explore how and when the order of decision makers (i.e., AI-human order vs. human-AI order) affects procedural justice in a multistage decision-making process involving AI and humans. We propose and found that individuals perceived a decision-making process arranged in human-AI order as having less AI ability-power fit (i.e., the fit between the abilities of AI and the power it is granted) than when the process was arranged in AI-human order, which led to less procedural justice. Furthermore, perceived AI ability buffered the indirect effect of the order of decision makers (i.e., AI-human order vs. human-AI order) on procedural justice via AI ability-power fit. Together, our findings suggest that the position of AI in collaborations with humans has profound impacts on individuals’ justice perceptions regarding their decision making.
... Decision-making can happen in one of four contexts: simple, complicated, complex, or chaotic (Snowden & Boone, 2007). Modern day governance occurs largely within a complex context, which is characterized by flux and unpredictability, unknown unknowns, many competing ideas, and the need for creative and innovative approaches (Snowden & Boone, 2007, p. 7). ...
The effectiveness of governance depends on the knowledge upon which decisions are based. Knowledge veracity is particularly significant when future conditions are uncertain. In the context of global climate change, communities around the world, including the residents of Rapa Nui (Easter Island, Chile), face tremendous uncertainty in resource availability. In the context of these looming challenges, prehistoric Rapa Nui is often treated as a warning about human-induced ecological catastrophe. With contemporary populations of the island wrestling about issues of governance , it is vital that researchers carefully validate their knowledge about the island’s past. Despite the claims of traditional narratives, new empirical research on Rapa Nui indicates that the traditional “collapse” narrative has no basis. Instead, the island is now known to have been sustainable from its prehistory until European contact. These findings point to the potential of alternative action models and new governance structures.
... Also, finding the point of failure in the execution of current institutionalized solution appears as fuzzy logic: Is it the system, the organizations, structure, value mix, or individuals? Contrast of Social Complex environment-Non reductionist wicked systems (/) with business adopted Cynefin Network(Snowden & Boone, 2007) The challenge of scientifically identifying patterns of collective system failures and assertions begins by distinguishing and classifying non-viable and multivariate viable solutions each with some attributes and potentiality that may lead to actions with a desired effect; thus having an unmanageable and almost impractical number of possibilities.Businesses and organizations tend to adopt multiple decision value systems (DVS) that either act mechanistically or statistically, limited to certain scenarios, or subsidize the business existence from more unaccounted resources. The mathematical arity clearly disperse and far from a Boolean solution, finds sometimes its complex constraints on time change, collective feuds, and social expectations capabilities and motivators (ECM). ...
Purpose: The objective of this study was to analyze the relation between the personality
of cities and the knowledge citizenship in the region of the Associação dos Municípios da
Encosta Superior do Nordeste (AMSNE) – a Southern Brazil association of municipalities.
Scope: Personal knowledge-based development (PKBD) perspective identifies and
explores competence of citizens for their development as knowledge citizens to better use
of community asset aiming local development (Garcia & Martinez, 2013). This perspective
may be directly related to the personality of the cities (Petroski; Baptista & Maffezzolli,
2013).
Method: A survey was carried-out with 504 young citizens. We adopted the scale from
García and Martinez (2013). Petroski, Baptista and Maffezzolli (2013) and Muniz and
Marchetti (2005). Statistical techniques such as descriptive statistical analyses, exploratory
factor analyses and correlation were used for data analysis.
Results: The results indicate the positive correlation between the personality of the cities
and the knowledge citizenship among the following dimensions: performance based on
political and civil values and attitude of the citizens.
... A literature review carried out by identified guidelines for coping with complexity in sociotechnical systems. These authors reviewed 14 seminal studies and/or studies from classic authors from resilience engineering (e.g., Hollnagel, 2012), cognitive systems engineering (e.g., Hollnagel and Woods, 2005), reports of using complexity insights to improvement in healthcare (e.g., Stroebel et al., 2005), and discussions on the use of complexity to enhance organizational design (e.g., Snowden and Boone, 2007). Several subsequent works have demonstrated the utility of the guidelines for the identification of weaknesses and strengths in socio-technical systems. ...
The COVID-19 pandemic poses mankind again facing an ancient challenge, while this time in a scenario of unprecedented interconnectedness among people, businesses, and ecosystems. This distinctive feature of the 21 st century is framed in this paper in terms of complexity, which has played a role in the rise, unfolding, and the hopeful end of the crisis. An exploratory analysis of the multifaceted influence of complexity across these three major stages of the pandemic is carried out, shedding light on emerging patterns that help to make sense of the crisis. The analysis of the unfolding crisis and the corresponding mitigation measures is based on five guidelines for coping with complexity developed on a previous study, namely: diversity of perspectives in decision-making, providing slack, giving visibility to processes and outcomes, understanding and monitoring the gap between work-as-imagined and work-as-done, and understanding and monitoring unintended consequences. Sources of data for that analysis encompass recent literature on the pandemic, complexity thinking applied to human factors and safety science, as well as general information on the pandemic publicly available from respected sources. For each of the three major pandemic stages, and for each guideline, a proposition for theory testing in future studies is set out.
... Hospitals are complex social-cultural organisations defined by their complexity of operations, uncertainty and interdependency. 1 A strong linkage between the organisation of care and patient outcomes has been found in several studies. 2 3 Complex organisations rely on authentic inputs and interactions while they deliver an array of clinical services. In these settings, it can be hard to determine the proximal causes of an adverse patient event such as a cardiac arrest or a medication error. ...
Objective
This study examines the association between profession-specific work environments and the 7-day mortality of patients admitted to these units with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and hip fracture.
Design
A cross-sectional study combining patient mortality data extracted from the South-Eastern Norway Health Region, and the work environment scores at the hospital ward levels. A case-mix adjustment model was developed for the comparison between hospital wards.
Setting
Fifty-six patient wards in 20 hospitals administered by the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority.
Participants
In total, 46 026 patients admitted to hospitals with AMI, stroke and hip fracture, and supported by 8800 survey responses from physicians, nurses and managers over a 3-year period (2010–2012).
Primary and secondary outcome measures
The primary outcome measures were the associations between the relative mortality rate for patients admitted with AMI, stroke and hip fractures and the profession-specific (ie, nurses, physicians, middle managers) mean scores on the 19 organisational factors in a validated cross sectional, staff survey conducted annually in Norway. The secondary outcome measures were the mean scores with SD on the organisational factors in the staff survey reported by each profession.
Results
The Nurse workload (beta 0.019 (95% CI0.009–0.028)) and middle manager engagement (beta 0.024 (95% CI0.010–0.037)) levels were associated with a case-mix adjusted 7-day patient mortality rates. There was no significant association between physician work environment scores and patient mortality rates.
Conclusion
7-day mortality rates in hospital wards were negatively correlated with the nurse workload and manager engagement levels. A deeper understanding of the relationships between patient outcomes, organisational structure and their underlying cultural barriers is needed because they may provide a better understanding of the harm and death risks for patients due to organisational characteristics.
... Depending on the level of complexity, executives must choose different approaches and actions. By using the Cynefin model of SNOWDEN AND BOONE [29], executives can define a course of action early, taking into account the context of the situation. The Cynefin model consists of the five different properties (= contexts) that a situation can have: obvious, complicated, complex, chaotic and disordered. ...
Neither purely agile nor purely plan-driven approaches take account of the fact that problems with varying degrees of complexity coexist at the same time within projects in the field of mechatronic system development. This does not ensure by definition that the most appropriate approach is used in the product development process. The approach of the ASD-Agile Systems Design therefore allows the development process to be adapted to the situation and requirements. The decisive factor is planning stability within the development process. At present, however, this is only implicitly tangible. For this reason, the present article first examines how developers deal with complexity in different development situations. Here it could be shown that inexperienced developers cannot make a well-founded assessment of the complexity. In order to counteract the additional methodological lack in this area, a tool was developed on the basis of a literature analysis by means of which the degree of complexity within development situations can be measured. In the context of the German automotive supply a first practicability of the tool was demonstrated in the support of the complexity appropriate process design.
... Stroebel et al., 2005), and discussions on the use of complexity to enhance organizational design (e.g. Snowden and Boone, 2007). This broad scope of sources provides considerable content validity for the guidelines. ...
... Many organizational change researchers (see, for example, De Smet, Lavoie and Hioe 2012; Ewenstein, Smith and Sologar 2015;Kezar 2013;Louvel 2013;Martin 2014;McRoy and Gibbs 2009) argue that this transactional approach to organizational change with its highly technical, controlled, impersonal and inflexible qualities is prone to failure because it develops too much resistance from those employees who are expected to make the change happen. However, the contemporary organizational change theory and practice of David Snowden (see Snowden and Boone 2007), as described by his Cynefin Decision Making Framework, which has gained international recognition and acclaim in the corporate world, provides a slightly more optimistic view. The transactional approach aligns well with two of Snowden's forms of organizational change -'simple' and 'chaotic' . ...
There is an abundance of research saying that not only is leadership in higher education ineffective but also that it actually undermines the essential work that should be happening in universities. Christopher M. Branson, Maureen Marra, Margaret Franken and Dawn Penney provide a new insight into leadership that has proven to be far more effective for all involved – the transrelational approach to leadership. This new way of leading places an emphasis on the importance of the relationships that the leader develops with each and every person they are leading. However, in order to apply this new way of leading, higher education institutions must change some of the key ways they work. This book provides direction in how this can happen, what benefits would result, and offers a view on what the future for higher education might be if such changes to leadership are not made.
Leadership in Higher Education from a Transrelational Perspective both critiques the likely implications of adopting this transrelational form of leadership into a higher educational institution and discusses the implications of not doing so. Although a transrelational approach to leadership might seem daunting for higher education institutions to adopt, is there any other choice? The authors argue that it is inconceivable for institutions founded upon promoting human development as a consequence of research to ignore such research that not only questions the suitability of current leadership practices but also offers a more effective alternative.
... This perspective is relevant for the purpose of this study, since we are interested in analyzing the impacts of LP on multiple dimensions of complexity, rather than on specific metrics or one or two characteristics. Attributes of CSS commonly described in literature are nonlinear interactions (Perrow, 1984;Snowden and Boone, 2007), adaptive capacity (Kurtz and Snowden, 2003;Stacey, 2000), openness to environment (Cilliers, 1998), feedback loops (Cilliers, 1998;Erdi, 2008;Perrow, 1984), large number of elements (Carayon, 2006;Cilliers, 1998;Johnson, 2010), and emergent properties ( Erdi, 2008;Sweeney, 2006). Saurin and Gonzalez (2013) compiled attributes from several studies into four categories (or meta-attributes), as shown in Table 2. ...
Although lean production (LP) is widely deemed as a means for influencing the complexity of socio-technical systems, empirical evaluations of this impact have not adopted an explicit complexity theory perspective, nor have they accounted for the multidimensional nature of complexity. This paper presents an investigation of the lean impacts on attributes of complex socio-technical systems (CSS) from several sectors. The assessment was based on a survey with 326 respondents. LP impacts on five bundles of complexity attributes were evaluated, namely: number of elements; interactions; diversity; unexpected variability; and resilience. The analyzed systems were firstly classified into manufacturing and services. Then, a cluster analysis divided each group into high and low lean adopters, based on their adherence to lean principles. Next, ANOVA tests were performed to check for differences in the intensity of complexity attributes between high and low lean adopters. Results indicated that LP in CSS tends to: (i) reduce the number of employees; (ii) reduce diversity of behaviors and beliefs; (iii) reduce disruptions due to information and human-related problems; (iv) increase richness and frequency of interactions; (v) increase functional diversity of elements; and (vi) increase resilience. While impacts (i), (ii) and (iii) reduce complexity, the others imply in its increase, suggesting that LP can be an effective way of balancing complexity attributes. Also, the framework for data analysis can be used for assessing lean impacts on the structure and functioning of socio-technical systems of different natures, thus supporting the understanding of lean systems from a complexity perspective.
... Taking a more complex and relational view of reality drives a different orientation to problem solving beyond the simple mechanistic paradigm (Sterling 2001, 53, Snowden andBoone 2007), in which the beat of the system is probed before you dance with it, so to speak (Meadows 2002). This resonates with a holographic approach, in which the problem situation is explored by learners from multiple dimensions: personal, cultural, institutional, psychological, historical, mythical, planetary (Montuori 2013). ...
Currently, our societies have extraordinary momentum towards unfathomable manifestations of unsustainability (Steffen et al. 2015, Rockström et al. 2016, Hanson et al. 2017). The root causes of unsustainability are many and complex. However, an argument has be made that unsustainability can ultimately be understood through the interactions between the societal paradigms, personal worldviews and our resulting ways of being, thinking, and relating (Sterling 1996, 2001, Ross and Mitchell under review). For example, the Cartesian-Newtonian paradigm is often criticised for its links to unsustainability (Capra 1982, Nicolescu 2002). The Cartesian-Newtonian paradigm can be characterised as viewing reality as simple (hierarchical, reductionist, monist) and fixed (mechanic, static, substance-focused) with a propensity for dualistic (mutually exclusive, binary, opposites, exclusionary) thinking. If it is this type of thinking that has caused the extraordinary momentum towards unsustainability, and if learning experiences are developed with these Cartesian-Newtonian principles operating in our subconscious, then deep learning towards sustainability will be less effective at fostering transformation towards sustainability (Sterling, 1996).
In this paper, we propose three learning outcome spaces that seek to improve the effectiveness of deep collectively learning for sustainability. By collective learning, we refer to a learning process in which a “collective engages in behaviour such as asking questions, seeking feedback, experimenting, reflecting, discussing options and errors”, as well as a “dynamic process in which learning process and the behaviour of the collective change as the collective learns” (Garavan and Carbery 2012). We intend for these proposed integrated outcome spaces to provide a heuristic that helps facilitators curate learning experiences which transcend the Cartesian-Newtonian paradigm into a more relational, complex and process-focused ontoepistemology. Ontoepistemology is the concept of ontology and epistemology as inter-intra-laced, when one holds the view of reality as primarily radically and dynamically entangled (Barad 2007).
This heuristic is designed to pass the ‘paper napkin’ test: it can be drawn from memory on the back of a paper napkin and used to make sense of or reflect on a learning experience in normal conversation (Snowden 2000). But with each engagement of the heuristic, deeper and more profound insights are possible. In other words, this heuristic seeks to provide a set of guiding principles of desired outcomes for facilitators to engage with during design.
Specifically, these outcome spaces attempt to promote attributes for: (A) understanding worldviews and the unquestioned paradigms that influence individual and societal behaviour, (B) working together with a “diversity of others” to learn and know dialectically, built on a foundation of trust, and (C) skilfully exploring, acting and reflecting upon leverage points for change within wicked problems (Rittel and Webber 1973) or problem spaces (Armson 2011).
... Although there is no consensus on the definition of complexity, it is usually accepted that complex systems in general share some interrelated attributes, such as a large number of elements [5,27,28], emergent properties [11,29], nonlinear dynamics [30,31], feedback loops [5,11,30] and adaptive behavior [32,33]. ...
Although lean production (LP) is usually associated with complexity reduction, it has been increasingly applied in highly complex socio-technical systems (CSS) (e.g. healthcare), in which the complexity level cannot be reduced below a certain (high) threshold. This creates a paradoxical situation, which is not well understood in theory and can be underlying the frustrating results of many lean implementations. This article presents a systematic literature review of how LP has dealt with complexity, both in theory and in practice, from a complexity science perspective. The review was based on 94 papers, which were analyzed according to seven criteria: how the concept of complexity is being used in lean research; the complexity level of the studied systems; the compatibility between the methodological approach and the nature of complexity; how complexity is managed by LP; barriers to LP in CSS; side-effects of LP in CSS; and whether complexity is always detrimental to LP. A research agenda is also proposed.
... Also, finding the point of failure in the execution of current institutionalized solution appears as fuzzy logic: Is it the system, the organizations, structure, value mix, or individuals? Contrast of Social Complex environment-Non reductionist wicked systems (/) with business adopted Cynefin Network(Snowden & Boone, 2007) The challenge of scientifically identifying patterns of collective system failures and assertions begins by distinguishing and classifying non-viable and multivariate viable solutions each with some attributes and potentiality that may lead to actions with a desired effect; thus having an unmanageable and almost impractical number of possibilities.Businesses and organizations tend to adopt multiple decision value systems (DVS) that either act mechanistically or statistically, limited to certain scenarios, or subsidize the business existence from more unaccounted resources. The mathematical arity clearly disperse and far from a Boolean solution, finds sometimes its complex constraints on time change, collective feuds, and social expectations capabilities and motivators (ECM). ...
Purpose: The objective of this study was to construct and validate a scale in order to measure the citizenship perception about the inherent concepts of each individual capital system category.
Scope: The generic capitals system is a value-based third generation knowledge management formal system structured by categories which allows to identify the relationships between the set of elements that create value when interacts as a system.
Method: A deep literature review was carried out in order to identify the theoretical constructs underlying the capital system categories for subsequent construction of a scale to measure these constructs. The data was collected with a sample of 300 University students distributed over 26 cities in the south of Brazil.
Results: To measure the perception about an integrated value perspective of the social life from the point of view of citizenship is possible. Statistical analysis showed that the scale succeeded in measuring the constructs as the study attempted to show.
Recommendations: Future research may compare the results obtained with the implementation of the capital system taxonomy from the indicators of a particular city with the perception of the citizens about the constructs that underlie the same capital system.
Knowledge is critical to the advancement of any organization, yet lessons learned
and after-action reports are insufficient to learn from high-threat events by the homeland security enterprise (HSE). What differentiates sub-optimal from meaningful learning is a systemic learning culture and emphasis on sensemaking and speed. This thesis examines effective organizational learning frameworks that can be applied to the HSE to accelerate knowledge acquisition from major events in near real-time. The results demonstrate that speed is not inhibitory to the learning process. Recommendations highlight the need for adaptive change in how the homeland security environment evolves through the creation of an entity responsible for organizational learning. Such an approach would also leverage local learning officers to achieve bi-directionality in a novel knowledge acquisition process. A new framework for learning must also include a process for near real-time data collection and sensemaking, which would require both public-sector incubators as well as advocacy networks within a new systematic learning process. This approach to organizational learning is required so as not to repeat failures and to enable “fast-learning” as threats and threat actors evolve.
A productive interaction with patients about their treatment, the meaning and consequences of their disease is relevant; research shows that this contributes to recovery and promotes health. Such an interaction is not always self-evident in medical practice. In her dissertation, Kromme investigated how internists view their interaction with the chronically ill, which interaction strategies they use in their language, and how they understand their role as health advocates.
Internists view their interaction with patients as a goal-oriented process that runs better when the doctor and patient ‘click’ and when there is a relationship of trust. They, furthermore, distinguish between two types of symptoms and adjust their goals and strategies accordingly. For patients with symptoms related to diabetes, kidney failure, or HIV, the emphasis is on establishing a bond with the patient, mutual understanding, and agreement. In patients with medically unexplained (physical) symptoms (MUS), the internists are more often distant, directive, cautious in asking questions about psychosocial causes, and less inclined to make shared decision-making. It also appears that the internists experience ambivalence toward their role as health advocates. As a result, they invest little in interaction strategies aimed at activating patients to a healthy lifestyle. They struggle most with the role of health advocate where it is most relevant: with patients with MUS and when patients have a low socioeconomic position (SEP) together with low health literacy. When they respond to symptoms and problems as a medical expert, their interactions with these patients are less productive.
More attention should be paid to resolving the ambivalence (and barriers) internists experience in their interactions with patients with MUS and lifestyle-related problems. Like these patients, internists otherwise stay caught between necessity on the one hand and powerlessness on the other. A complex system of individual and social ideas and role expectations determines the ambivalence of the internists. This complexity requires reflection on values and moral dilemmas, not only from all healthcare providers involved but also from policymakers and administrators.
Sense‐making, sensemaking, and sense making are terms used in different disciplines. Similarities of usage seem unclear. (1) to examine the concepts used in different approaches to sense‐making/sensemaking/sense making; (2) to identify, classify and synthesize recent studies relevant to information science, as well as similar group on sensemaking in education research; (3) to reflect on future directions for sense‐making/sensemaking methodology in information science. The objectives were to retrieve, examine, classify and perform meta‐synthesis on sense‐making/sensemaking studies in both information science and education research. The review used systematic review principles, with selection criteria for case studies for examination in both information science and education sets. The final meta‐synthesis used a meta‐ethnographic approach, together with findings of recent overviews on organizational sensemaking, and other information science reviews. Qualitative sense‐making studies in information science often used Dervin's SMM (sense‐making methodology) and studies in organizations and education frequently used Weick's organizational sensemaking. Different mixed methods approaches were identified. Sense‐making is actively used in research and practice in information science and knowledge management. Using a coherent sense‐making methodology helps and dialogic principles are useful in planning, data collection and analysis. Individual and collective sense‐making are important to information science.
Fire as a weapon (FaaW) is discussed within the first responder community but still vaguely defined. This ambiguity, coupled with absent reporting mechanisms, leads to an inability to estimate the size of the problem correctly. This research offers a comprehensive definition of FaaW and argues for its inclusion as a high-threat response. It evaluates fire as a weapon as a homeland security issue requiring additional attention and leadership by offering new data and analysis that demonstrates the severity of the problem, especially compared to other high-threat events such as active shooter incidents. It clarifies which incident types should receive the most focus and argues for strategic shifts in how we currently perceive this threat. It also elucidates the potential to apply established national standards and tactics for active shooter response to fire as a weapon mitigation strategy.
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the factors of financial sustainability of project management when they face complexities using the complexity theory. This research argues that to manage project complexities, the employees’ performance readiness, situational leadership style and trust in leaders increase financial sustainability.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used a quantitative approach using a questionnaire survey with the Project Management Institute members in Indonesia. From the total population of 190 project managers, 91 questionnaires were valid and used for analysis. PLS-SEM is the statistical tool used to test the eight hypotheses formulated in this research. The survey was designed to analyze the factors influencing financial sustainability and how these variables are related to each other to overcome project complexity issues and deliver financial sustainability.
Findings
The research recommends that to overcome project complexities, the readiness of the employees to perform is important. These variables, which are supported by trust in the leader and situational leadership, have positively significant effects on financial sustainability. The findings strengthen the initial arguments of this research and confirm the existing studies.
Research limitations/implications
This research, however, comes with several limitations. First, the situational leadership was chosen in this research because of the short project duration that requires the leader to be acting accordingly based on the employee’s abilities. The short project duration made it impossible for the leader to build any relationships with the team members. Therefore, this research might not be appropriate to explain the organizational long-term strategies. Thus, it is suggested that the future research should address this. Second, with the very limited studies regarding the performance readiness and maturity, where in this research are used interchangeably, there should be further research to explain both variables independently as it holds an important role in project management and to overcome project complexities. Hence, this research adds the various studies found on the project complexities and how performance readiness, trust in leaders and situational leadership interact to increase financial sustainability in projects.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the limited research on the financial sustainability of project management in developing countries. Moreover, the research on project complexities has not been related to financial sustainability and, therefore, promotes a high novelty. The findings of this study also provide substantial empirical evidence for future work in the project management area.
This chapter explores the importance of leadership development, aspects of learning theory, and the options for leader and leadership development. It examines some learning and leadership development theory and considers how these might apply in the veterinary professions and inform choices about formal and informal leadership development, both for individuals and organisations. In human healthcare, leadership development is seen as critical in both the nursing and medical professions, although engaging doctors in leadership development is seen as more difficult than engaging nurses. Leadership is a social construct that emerges from relationships between individuals, and leadership development creates social capital of partnerships, collaborations, and networks. The chapter also explores options for leader and leadership development and succession planning. Leadership development should ensure the right capabilities are available even when individuals move into new spaces and roles.
Spałek S. „Zarządzanie projektami w przedsiębiorstwie. Perspektywa czwartej rewolucji przemysłowej”, Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa 2020. ISBN: 978-83-208-2409-4, stron: 245.
Celem monografii jest próba opracowania modelu objaśniającego wpływ czynników technologicznych powiązanych z czwartą rewolucją przemysłową na zarządzanie projektami rozwoju nowych produktów (NPD) w przedsiębiorstwie. W książce:
• scharakteryzowano obecne trendy w działalności projektowej w organizacjach;
• omówiono podejście procesowe w zarządzaniu projektami;
• przedstawiono koncepcję ładu projektowego oraz jego operacjonalizacji;
• opisano czwartą rewolucję przemysłową (genezę i istotę pojęcia, jego niejednoznaczność, wzajemne relacje koncepcji z działalnością projektową przedsiębiorstwa, implikacje dla zarządzania projektami NPD, aktywatory czwartej rewolucji przemysłowej);
• określono wpływ aktywatorów czwartej rewolucji przemysłowej na zarządzanie projektem w przedsiębiorstwie;
• przedstawiono autorski model zarządzania projektami NPD w czwartej rewolucji przemysłowej.
O estudo da ergonomia envolve a verificação dos fatores que influenciam no desempenho do sistema produtivo e causam consequências aos trabalhadores. Dessa forma, procuram reduzir a fadiga, estresse, erros e acidentes proporcionando saúde, segurança e satisfação aos empregados, durante a sua interação com o sistema produtivo. Esse estudo objetivou identificar quais são as variáveis que intervém nos processos de operacionalização de sistemas complexos que utilizam os princípios da filosofia lean healthcare. A metodologia utilizada foi de natureza aplicada, com o uso de entrevistas focalizadas por meio de questionários. Os resultados do estudo apontam que os hospitais investigados possuem uma baixa implementação da filosofia lean e não há uma aferição da implementação com o aumento do nível de segurança laboral. Conclui-se que, de modo geral, a gestão hospitalar ainda está com cerne nos procedimentos operacionais e não com foco no paciente. Ademais, evidencia-se que os avanços no elo da gestão hospitalar no setor público, no sul do Brasil, são baixos e os métodos de gestão são, portanto classificados como tradicionais e/ou obsoletos.
Cloud computing is a new technology which puts whole or partial parts of the Information Technology (IT) infrastructure and services in a virtualized environment inside and/or outside the traditional IT center perimeter. It touches every level of the IT architecture and thus has a big influence on the way the internal and external users via their business processes are interacting with this architecture. Security is a big issue in this context and a lot of business and IT people are reluctant to move to the Cloud. Besides the security, business and architectural issues may increase the risks and create more uncertainties for these kinds of projects. For this reason, the chapter presents an investment framework, which takes into account the global, the business, the IT and the operational strategies, so that cloud computing projects have more chance to succeed. The need for flexibility in the investments is addressed by the real option valuation, which is placed in the context of the chapter’s holistic investment framework for cloud computing.
The past 150 years have seen substantial public health advances globally. However, the intensive exploitation of energy and resources, the associated disruption of earth systems, and the resulting decline in some ecosystem services, threaten these advances. The risks are driven by global climate change, biodiversity loss, land use alterations, depletion of soil and water, and altered biogeochemical cycles; of these, the best studied with respect to human health is climate change. The human capacity to adapt to these changes is not fully understood. Adaptation to protect health must occur within the health sector, by strengthening public health and clinical care systems, and through collaboration with other sectors. This paper reviews known health threats, with an emphasis on climate change, then proposes a framework for prioritizing adaptation options based on: a) the probability of adverse health impacts; b) the effectiveness of protective interventions; and c) the magnitude of the public health impact. The framework can also be used to inform adaptation implementation, focusing on options that protect particularly vulnerable populations from climate change and other global environmental changes over coming decades.
Government agencies worldwide continue their commitment to providing open data in order to increase transparency of education, healthcare and other public services. Focusing on open government information systems (IS) that provide performance-related data, this paper explores the ongoing tension between government’s goal of transparency and the resulting largely opaque datafication effects. Our research insights are derived from an empirical longitudinal study of a controversial open government IS called My School, currently providing performance data on almost 10,000 schools in Australia. We investigate the tension between transparency intended with schools’ open performance data and datafication effects they create within the education system and a broader society, through the theoretical lens of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Our study reveals how the tension emerges due to unpredictable use, propagation and reinterpretation of open data by more and more users. Consequently, the original meaning of data gets distorted, as these users continue to reconstruct and reinterpret ‘data’ in their own contexts and adapt their behavior in pursuit of their strategic goals. We also identify and theorize seven datafication patterns underlying the tension and the ways they produce various social consequences. Based on these research contributions we discuss important strategic implications for government decision makers and identify new opportunities for future research on open government IS.
Complex systems interact with an environment where a high degree of uncertainty exists. To reduce uncertainty, enterprises (should) create intelligence. This chapter shows that intelligence has two purposes: first, to increase and to assess (thus to correct) existing knowledge, and second, to support decision making by reducing uncertainty. The chapter discusses complex adaptive systems. Enterprises are not only complex systems; they are also most of the time dynamic because they have to adapt their goals, means, and structure to survive in the fast evolving (and thus unstable) environment. Crucial for enterprises is to know the context/ecology in which they act and operate. The Cynefin framework makes the organization and/or its parts aware of the possible contexts of the organization and/or its parts: simple, complicated, complex, chaotic, or disordered. It is crucial for the success of implementing and using EA that EA is adapted to function in an environment of perpetual change. To realize this, the chapter proposes and elaborates a new concept of EA, namely Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking – Enterprise Architecture (CAST-EA).
This research aims to investigate the mobilization of communication skills among children in educational situations Collaborative Problem Solving (CPS) in school based on the active methodology, in this case the methodology of Episodes Situated Learning - EAS (Rivoltella). It is a qualitative research, based on the proposal of the Applied Research (Van Der Maren) and the Research on Media Education (Rivoltella; Fantin) within which approaches the assumptions of Research with Children (Fantin; Girardello). With the theoretical basis macroconceitual conformation, the interaction was possible to articulate the Qualitative and Systemic Perspective of Communication (Bateson) to dialogue with contributions from various fields such as Anthropology, Biology, Neurosciences, Social Theory and Education in their interface with Communication. The empirical field was composed of two public schools located in Florianópolis (SC), with about 60 students of the sixth year of elementary school, in the age range of 10 to 12 years, followed during the 2015 school year. Data collection was carried out through the following instruments: (1) participant observation, used in a dialogical way and with the help of a script to better understand how children act, interact, negotiate and modify their relations in situated contexts; (2) didactic and pedagogical intervention inspired by the EAS methodology which consists of a set of activities that explored the prior knowledge and practices of students with the use of multiple languages, the development and construction of communication and relational competences, as well as the social context in which they are inserted; and (3) focus groups, built through collaborative and metarreflexives principles, that sought to explore the interaction and applied communication at different levels of complexity. The data analysis was performed using approximations to the principles of semiotic situational methodology (Mucchielli) and methodological strategies of systematic analysis of information (Van Der Maren). The results allowed us to state that the EAS methodology helps competent mobilization of communication and relationships in CPS situations in school, provided they are considered his principles of learning, such as: the enhancement of knowledge, of experience, recursion (modelling and imitation), and its simplexa and enactive nature, combined with the qualitative and systemic perspective communication with an emphasis on co-evolution, consensus, empathy and multiple interactions – enabled us not only to promote, but also to assess the acquiring of communication competences and relationships in CPS situations at
school. Therefore, we point out the need to consider the school environment as an active component in this interaction, and to consider the place of the teacher as a mediator able to help students to meta- communicate, and not only to mediate their formal and informal knowledge. Starting from the initial interest of this research, we concluded pointing out that teaching situations Problem Collaborative Solving built on active methodology in the specific case of EAS methodology, help with children mobilize communication and relate competently, provided they are highlighted and considering the uniqueness of the subject, the conditions of mediation and environments interaction.
This paper extends the Knowledge Management-discipline's understanding of knowledge. By including the concept of time, this extended conceptualization of knowledge could make knowledge management and decision making more responsive to the complexity found in organizational and social environments. The authors suggest that knowledge tends to be past-oriented in terms of its formative components, while emergent situations are future-oriented, which may or may not have roots in the past. In this article, the authors explore this past-present-future conundrum by explaining how reliance on the past may restrict an organization's ability to deal with emergent situations in the future. The role of wisdom will be introduced as a bridge connecting current past-oriented knowledge to unknown and unpredictable future-oriented events. The paper concludes that handling complex business decisions requires wisdom and that knowledge management and information systems must be designed and developed to support decisions by providing an integrative framework of analytics and insight.
Managing risks and uncertainty are terms that are used interchangeably by project teams. Research on project procurement shows unexpected events in project delivery are often distinguished by these terms. This raises questions concerning how collaboration and coping ability help deal with inherent uncertainty and ambiguity. Using Weick's sense-making process of reflection and re-analysis a novel methodological approach was developed. A project database and contemporary literature was mined using the perspective of Snowden's Cynefin ambiguity framework. Two industry sourced examples provided support to the arguments made. The findings suggest that collaboration may lead to reduced people and process ambiguities and where ambiguity is revealed in projects it is often unrecognised, residing in a disordered zone. Observing ambiguity in this way provides a better understanding of ambiguity and advanced coping strategies. Having these perspectives is useful for identifying ambiguity where it may otherwise be missed or subsumed into risk and uncertainty.
The focus of this paper is directed at gaining an insight into services strategy formulation and implementation, with specific reference to the integration of the diverse systems involved. These systems were identified in a previous paper presented at the 2014 PICMET conference entitled “Servitization: An Integrated strategic and operational systems framework”. A key difficulty encountered in practice is that as the future unfolds these various systems are subject to constant change, both at an individual, as well as at an interactive level, a reality that renders strategy creation and execution extremely complex. The convergent, emergent systemic effects and the uncertainty and unpredictably it engenders, exposes fundamental difficulties associated with traditional strategic management practice, based on underlying scientific management principles. The research study entails a multi-disciplinary literature review to determine if a complex adaptive systems approach may not be more effective in practice, a key finding emerging from the study being that this is in fact the case. The value of the research study is that the findings emanating from the literature review could inform future management practice.
Quantification and forecasting of cost uncertainty for aerospace innovations is challenged by conditions of small data which arises out of having few measurement points, little prior experience, unknown history, low data quality, and conditions of deep uncertainty. Literature research suggests that no frameworks exist which specifically address cost estimation under such conditions. In order to provide contemporary cost estimating techniques with an innovative perspective for addressing such challenges a framework based on the principles of spatial geometry is described. The framework consists of a method for visualising cost uncertainty and a dependency model for quantifying and forecasting cost uncertainty. Cost uncertainty is declared to represent manifested and unintended future cost variance with a probability of 100% and an unknown quantity and innovative starting conditions considered to exist when no verified and accurate cost model is available. The shape of data is used as an organising principle and the attribute of geometrical symmetry of cost variance point clouds used for the quantification of cost uncertainty. The results of the investigation suggest that the uncertainty of a cost estimate at any future point in time may be determined by the geometric symmetry of the cost variance data in its point cloud form at the time of estimation. Recommendations for future research include using the framework to determine the “most likely values” of estimates in Monte Carlo simulations and generalising the dependency model introduced. Future work is also recommended to reduce the framework limitations noted.
Breakthroughs in medical science, innovations in medical technologies, and improvements in clinical practices occur today at an increasingly rapid rate. Yet because of a fragmented healthcare delivery system, many Americans are unable to benefit from these developments. How can we design a system that can provide high-quality, affordable healthcare for everyone? In this book, William Rouse and Nicoleta Serban introduce concepts, principles, models, and methods for understanding, and improving, healthcare delivery. Approaching the topic from the perspectives of engineering and statistics, they argue that understanding healthcare delivery as a complex adaptive system will help us design a system that is more efficient, effective, and equitable.The authors use multilevel simulation models as a quantitative tool for evaluating alternate ways of organizing healthcare delivery. They employ this approach, for example, in their discussions of affordability, a prevention and wellness program, chronic disease management, and primary care accessibility for children in the Medicaid program. They also consider possible benefits from a range of technologies, including electronic health records and telemedicine; data mining as an alternative to randomized trials; conceptual and analytical methodologies that address the complexity of the healthcare system; and how these principles, models, and methods can enable transformational change. © 2014 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved.
The National Incident Management System (NIMS) has become a subject of controversy, as many practitioners find severe limitations with the system's field effectiveness. To label NIMS a complete failure and look for a different response tool would be rash and premature. A deeper exploration of NIMS shows that it is very useful in structuring response efforts for large-scale incidents, but only in later operational periods, when a certain amount of order has been restored. The NIMS failure point, however, is that it offers limited help to those first-arriving responders who must deal with the initial chaos inherent at the outset of every scene. This article explores the dynamics of the initial edge-of-chaos that characterizes the first phase of every large-scale incident and offers recommendations for additions to NIMS that will better prepare firstresponding incident commanders to work their way through that chaos and later apply the NIMS process with purpose.
Complex systems interact with an environment where a high degree of uncertainty exists. To reduce uncertainty, enterprises (should) create intelligence. This chapter shows that intelligence has two purposes: first, to increase and to assess (thus to correct) existing knowledge, and second, to support decision making by reducing uncertainty. The chapter discusses complex adaptive systems. Enterprises are not only complex systems; they are also most of the time dynamic because they have to adapt their goals, means, and structure to survive in the fast evolving (and thus unstable) environment. Crucial for enterprises is to know the context/ecology in which they act and operate. The Cynefin framework makes the organization and/or its parts aware of the possible contexts of the organization and/or its parts: simple, complicated, complex, chaotic, or disordered. It is crucial for the success of implementing and using EA that EA is adapted to function in an environment of perpetual change. To realize this, the chapter proposes and elaborates a new concept of EA, namely Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking - Enterprise Architecture (CAST-EA).
MOOCs have captured the attention of large numbers of learners (and a few venture capitalists). Clearly something exciting and different is happening which is transforming how people learn, what people learn, as well as how learning events are designed and valued. This chapter attempts to understand these transformations, using a visualization tool (Footprints of Emergence) which enables learners, teachers, designers and researchers to reflect on, articulate, and learn from these reflections. The tool enables all of them to map the emergent and transformational aspects of learning in large groups, such as MOOCs. It requires the person engaging with the learning process to be honest and courageous-because they are engaging not only with their learning, but also with themselves and their own identities-personal, social, cultural and professional. Epistemic and ontological shifts in transformative learning are difficult, even scary and unsettling. We demonstrate how the Footprints of Emergence described here can help people to navigate through the uncertainty and unpredictability with some degree of reassurance.
This chapter introduces Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking (CAST) into the domain of Intellectual Capital (IC). CAST is based on the theories of Complex Adaptive System (CAS) and Systems Thinking (ST). It argues that the CAST, combined with Intelligence Base offers a potentially more holistic approach to managing the Intellectual Capital of an organization. Furthermore, the authors extend this IC management with additional dimensions proper to a social entity such as an organization. New organizational design methods are needed and the capability approach is such a method that supports IC in virtual and real organizations. The characteristics of Intellectual Capital are discussed in the iterative process of inquiry and the Cynefin Framework, guaranteeing a holistic view on the organization and its environment.
The main focus on e-Procurement in this chapter will be the public (government) e-Procurement, which is part of a larger whole, namely e-Government. e-Procurement and e-Government are very important tools for the government to act in this fast changing society. But as for must business, the tools may be important, but the vision and the strategy to use these tools are much more important. Therefore the chapter discusses e-Government and e-Procurement in their strategic contexts, in which intelligence (contextual integrated information) is a key factor to survive. The reason is because the government is a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). Without intelligence and the agility of its structure and processes, the government will not survive, or at least it will be less efficient and effective in developing strategies and in executing these strategies. The game theory discussion will show that the flexibility and agility of the e-Procurement system (together with a good strategy) are key factors for a successful system; otherwise e-Procurement is more of weakness in the government's value chain of procurement of goods and services. In the last part of the discussion on Cloud Computing and e-Procurement, the author argues that ERP systems (so called best practices) are not well adapted to other contexts than the simple context of the Cynefin Framework. Service Oriented Architecture solutions can provide better (adapted) solutions for e-Procurement. Cloud Computing in combination with SOA may be the next generation solution.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.