Navigating through the Urban Age: Principles and Innovations

Abstract

By 2030, it is estimated that 65 percent of the global population will live in cities, and most of the additional three billion world population projected by 2050 will be added to cities. The process of urbanization is typically driven by push and pull factors, but national government policy is emerging as another important driver in countries like China, where urbanization is closely linked to industrialization and economic growth. There are numerous challenges associated with rapid urbanization, including providing for rapidly growing urban populations, managing air pollution, reducing carbon emissions, preparing for climate change risks, and improving social integration and governance procedures. A consorted approach integrating local, national, and international efforts, and mobilizing all sectors and actors is required. In this regard, understanding cities as systems that are nested within larger systems will be critical. Solutions are most likely to vary across cities and will be context dependent. Nonetheless, there are some high-level principles for building sustainable, resilient, and healthy cities, and although still a long way to go, there are some encouraging signs towards implementing these principles from international, national, and local levels. Of particular importance is the role of the university, which is increasingly finding cities as living laboratories and becoming the engine of innovation

Full text

www.thesolutionsjournal.org | May-June 2016 | Solutions | 55
Feature
by Xuemei Bai, Barbara Norman, and Peter Edwards
Navigating through the
Urban Age: Principles and Innovations
In Brief
By 2030, it is estimated that 65 percent of the global population will live in cities, and most of the additional three billion
world population projected by 2050 will be added to cities. The process of urbanization is typically driven by push and
pull factors, but national government policy is emerging as another important driver in countries like China, where
urbanization is closely linked to industrialization and economic growth. There are numerous challenges associated
with rapid urbanization, including providing for rapidly growing urban populations, managing air pollution, reducing
carbon emissions, preparing for climate change risks, and improving social integration and governance procedures.
A consorted approach integrating local, national, and international efforts, and mobilizing all sectors and actors is
required. In this regard, understanding cities as systems that are nested within larger systems will be critical. Solutions
are most likely to vary across cities and will be context dependent. Nonetheless, there are some high-level principles for
building sustainable, resilient, and healthy cities, and although still a long way to go, there are some encouraging signs
towards implementing these principles from international, national, and local levels. Of particular importance is the
role of the university, which is increasingly finding cities as living laboratories and becoming the engine of innovation.
Bai, X., B. Norman, and P. Edwards. (2016). Navigating through the Urban Age: Principles and Innovations. Solutions 7(3): 55–62.
https://thesolutionsjournal.com/article/navigating-through-the-urban-age-principles-and-innovations/
Tokyo Form
Tokyo is a rapidly growing megacity, projected to have a population of 37 million by the year 2030.

56 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org
By 2030, it is estimated that 65
percent of the global popula-
tion will live in cities.1 In the
longer term, the world’s population is
projected to be 10 billion by 2050 with
most of the additional three billion
living in cities. To accommodate these
extra three billion people, we will
need to build the equivalent of one
new city that can support one million
people every five days between now
and 2050.2 In practice, most of these
people will be accommodated through
the expansion of cities, with the
consequence that, by 2030, the world
is projected to have 41 megacities with
more than 10 million inhabitants,
including Tokyo with 37 million and
Delhi with 36 million.
Population growth is just
one aspect of urbanization. It is
accompanied by the urbanization
of the landscape, which can expand
even faster than urban population
growth.3 According to the World
Bank, the urban area in the Pearl
River Delta grew from 4500 sq. km. in
2000 to nearly 7000 sq. km. in 2010.4
As cities are typically located in
fertile land, the consequences of this
expansion for agriculture and the
food security of urban populations
have become matters of increasing
concern.
Urbanization can take different
forms, ranging from the growth of
existing cities (Mexico City), to the
merging of several urban centers into
urban regions (Pearl Delta Region,
China) and corridors, and to the
emerging ‘smart’ cities developed on
sustainable principles (Songdo, South
Korea).
Major drivers of urbanization
include push factors from rural areas
when traditional livelihood becomes
impossible, and pull factors from
cities with better employment and
education opportunities. The migra-
tion between rural areas and cities
is becoming increasingly mobile
and bidirectional, for example,
increasing circular migration in
sub-Saharan Africa or the large
number of floating peasant workers
in China,7 largely responding to
economic opportunities in urban
areas. A third driver of urbanization
is the targeted governmental policy
to promote urbanization for eco-
nomic growth, as urban expansions
feed into economic growth,6 and
urbanization is closely linked to an
expanding middle class, particularly
in rapidly industrializing countries
such as China. The increasing con-
sumption power of these new urban
middle classes is seen by govern-
ments as a new driver of domestic
demand and economic growth.17
Challenges
There are numerous challenges
associated with rapid urbanization.
Providing for rapidly growing urban
populations, managing air pollution,
reducing carbon emissions, preparing
for climate change risks, and improv-
ing social integration and governance
procedures are several examples.
The provision of sufficient and
affordable infrastructure, such as
housing, water supply, sanitation,
and transportation options to meet
the demands of a growing urban
population requires large investments
in cities. In addition to the financial
requirements, planning for smart
infrastructure is a key consideration
that will require investment in knowl-
edge and skill development at the
national and local levels. In particular,
national energy systems servicing
large urban conurbations will experi-
ence transformational change in the
very near future. Indeed, the roll-out
and integration of renewable energy
into old and new cities has become
a priority for many large utility
providers.
Air quality is an example of the
possible negative externalities of
rapid urban expansion. This is being
experienced in a very tangible way
in large developing nations. During
early December 2015, the first two red-
notices for ‘heavy air pollution’ were
issued by the China Meteorological
Administration, highlighting the
growing human health dimension of
maintaining a sustainable city.7,8 The
social and economic consequences
of these notices were immediate and
severe, as they required the closure
of factories, businesses, and schools.
Another example is the Asian brown
cloud that sweeps over Asian countries,
including India and Malaysia, high-
lighting the interconnectedness of
urban and natural systems. Primarily
generated by wood and forest fires,
transport, and industrialization
processes, the brown cloud is having a
major impact on human health.9
Key Concepts
• The world is entering an urban
age, with 65 percent of world
population projected to be urban
dwellers by 2030. In addition to the
traditional push and pull factors,
national government policy can play
a significant role in promoting and
shaping urbanization.
• Urbanization brings about multiple
challenges, ranging from providing
for new urban dwellers to manag-
ing urban social, economic, and
environment issues and to reducing
carbon emissions and preparing
for climate change risks. Tackling
these challenges effectively will be
a significant opportunity to shape
alternative urban futures.
• A consorted approach integrating
local, national, and international
efforts, and mobilizing all sectors
and actors is required, and a systems
approach is essential.
• Solutions are most likely to vary
across cities and will be context
dependent. Nonetheless, there are
some high-level principles that can
guide finding and implementing
solutions.
• Universities can play a critical role
in finding urban solutions, by being
engines for innovation in cities,
which serve as living laboratories.

www.thesolutionsjournal.org | May-June 2016 | Solutions | 57
At the larger scale, climate change
is one of the greatest challenges.
Cities are major contributors to global
carbon emissions, accounting for 75
percent of world final energy use and
76 percent of carbon dioxide emissions
(both numbers are median figures
from the estimated range).10,11 In high-
income countries where urban rural
income disparity is less significant,
cities can scale benefits to provide
infrastructure more efficiently, and
thus can be less carbon-intensive than
in rural areas. In developing countries,
on the other hand, urban–rural
income disparity remains significant,
with urban dwellers on average
consuming more than their rural
counterparts, and the urban way of
life is typically more carbon-intensive.
Finding ways to achieve a low-carbon
urban development is an urgent task,
as the majority of urban growth will
take place in the developing world.
Climate risks and vulnerabilities
present enormous challenges for the
planning of our cities. Many major
cities are located along coastal areas and
will suffer from the impacts of climate
change (e.g. flooding, coastal inunda-
tion, extreme weather). Studies show
significant costs from these impacts,
with limited adaptation options, and
developing cities being particularly
vulnerable.12 Planners usually regard
the physical environment as relatively
stable and rarely consider the possibility
of significant changes in the urban
landscape due, for example, to large-
scale coastal erosion. Indeed, despite the
fact that a more dynamic environment
will bring with it a raft of legal, social,
economic, and environmental conse-
quences, many new developments take
place in areas at high risk from flooding
and coastal inundation. This requires
cities to adapt a planning system that
can respond to changes occurring at a
scale never previously encountered and
to make urban design more climate-
sensitive.13 Some global cities such as
London, New York, and Melbourne are
planning ahead for climate adaptation.
10 Principles to Make our Cities Liveable19
•Empower cities: More financial power should be delegated to cities in proportion
to their responsibilities. In addition, it is important to recognize their rightful place in
policy processes and implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Current
implementation strategies emphasize country, regional, and international approaches,
without much focus on cities. Challenge cities to adopt the goals—and compete and
cooperate to achieve them.
•National level support: It is important to realize urban issues are not the
responsibility of local government alone. The aggregated social and economic power
and environmental impacts of cities are often comparable to that of entire nations, but
their potential cannot be properly tapped without support. Having a place in the national
government institutional structure is essential.
•Integrate new migrants and other vulnerable populations into the urban fabric:
In China alone, there are 250 million people termed the “floating population” who come
to cities to work but often without adequate social security or health care support.
These people are often systematically discriminated against by cities’ bureaucracies.
Adopt a people-centred approach to urbanization, nurturing a sense of belonging and
enhanced participatory governance.
•Beyond city limits: Ensure policies and management decisions at the city level take
into account the regional and global context and interactions.
•Coordinated long-term vision: As cities grow and new cities emerge, we need a
coordinated long-term vision of urban development. Unrealistically ambitious outlooks
and over competition result in redundant infrastructure and inefficient resource use.
•Prepare for future risks: Cities need to be prepared not only for the risks arising from
global phenomena such as climate change, but also those arising from local processes.
For example, numerous cities sit on deltas, and many of the world’s deltas are sinking as
a result of extraction and the concentration of high-rise buildings.
•Implementation and accountability: Many cities suffer from air and water pollution,
where local officials prioritize economic development over environmental quality;
or worse, corruption is rife and officials are bribed to ignore regulations. Enhancing
implementation of environmental regulation and reducing corruption will have a
dramatic effect on the liveability of cities.
•More science in planning and decision-making: We do not have a full grasp
of how cities as complex systems behave and respond to intervention. For example,
decisions about transport can affect housing, industry, energy consumption, and health
in unexpected ways. Unintended adverse consequences can be minimized through closer
collaboration on science and urban policies. Moreover, the main urban research institutes
are in wealthy countries. The most rapid urbanization will happen in Africa and Asia. We
need more urban research institutes in these areas linked to local and national policies.
•Nurture cultural innovation: Cities are centers of rapid cultural innovation. Evidence
shows that cultural shifts in cities, for example, “Cycling is cool” or “Wasting food is
a shame,” have the potential to deliver significant sustainability outcomes within and
beyond cities.
•Facilitate city-to-city learning: Cities learn from each other more than from anything
else. However, engagement in such peer learning can be constrained by local capacity,
and this is where upper-level government and international organizations can help. In
doing so, we must recognize that solutions are not one-size-fits-all. It is also important
to recognize that learning and sharing doesn’t have to be unidirectional.

58 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org
However, much of the world’s urban
population will continue to live in
small to medium urban centers, with
half of the world’s urban residents
living in relatively small cities of less
than 500,000 inhabitants. With only
around one in eight currently living
in the 28 megacities with more than
10 million inhabitants, planning for
cities at different scales is an important
consideration.14
Urbanization also presents critical
social challenges. China alone has a
‘floating population’ of over 260 million
working in coastal cities. Though vast
in numbers, these workers are not fully
integrated into the urban fabric.15,16
Wider considerations of climate justice
and social equity are also emerging
as fundamental societal concerns in
planning for cities, climate change, and
planetary boundaries.17,18 Exacerbating
these impacts will be the potential for
increasing social and economic divides
in both developed and developing
nations resulting in increasing issues of
urban access and equity.
Some broader societal trends also
present new challenges to cities, for
example, planning for an aging society
such as in Japan and the revitalizing (or
not) of shrinking cities such as former
industrial cities like Detroit. These
are complex issues that will bring
winners and losers within and among
cities, whatever the planning response.
This diversity of outcomes is nothing
new in itself, but the risk that certain
groups will be severely disadvantaged
increases with the pace of change. For
this reason, any strategic planning for
urban settlements must consider possi-
ble impacts for vulnerable groups such
as the elderly, and wider consequences
for the region. Indeed, the complexity
of these issues highlights the neces-
sity for all levels of government to be
involved in developing solutions.
Solutions
To effectively address the diverse
urban challenges ranging from the
more traditional issues such as hous-
ing, transport, water, and energy to
the emerging issues of climate change
and planetary boundaries, requires
a consorted approach integrating
Momo Go
Urban agricultural plots lie below high rises in Songdo, South Korea. The city was designed as a new ‘smart’ city, built with sustainable principles.

www.thesolutionsjournal.org | May-June 2016 | Solutions | 59
local, national, and international
efforts, and mobilizing all sectors
and actors. In this regard, a systems
understanding and approach —that
is, understanding cities as systems
rather than a collection of individual
sectors that are nested within larger
systems—will be critical to finding
solutions for the future.
Solutions are most likely to vary
across cities and will be context
dependent. Differences may be due
to the functional differences of cities
or the scale of cities across the urban
hierarchy, from global cites such
as New York and Shanghai to small
coastal urban centers, as well as across
the development stages and per-capita
income spectrum. Nonetheless, there
are some high-level principles in terms
of adopting a systems approach (see
box on page 57). These principles are
essential to effectively address urban
challenges and build sustainable,
resilient, and healthy cities.
There are some encouraging
signs and progresses towards finding
Future Cities Laboratory: Innovative Research for Sustainable Cities
A report recently published documents how “the world’s leading
universities have embarked on a building boom for urban research.”
In the last ten years, more than a dozen labs, departments, and schools
have been launched with the common goal of researching quantitative
and computational approaches to understanding cities as systems.22
One of these new institutions is the Singapore–ETH Centre, founded
in 2010, which supports two major research programs: Future Cities
Laboratory (FCL) and Future Resilient Systems (FRS).
Both programs are multidisciplinary and aimed at developing
practical solutions to improve the resilience and sustainability of
cities. However, any such solutions must be based upon a sound
understanding of how cities work, and this remains very limited. As
Geoffrey West, former director of the Santa Fe Institute, remarked,
we “desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities—relying
on underlying generic principles that can be made into a predictive
framework.” FCL focuses it efforts upon the ‘metabolism’ of cities,
studying them as complex systems characterized by stocks and flows
of resources, including energy, water, capital, and information. FRS,
on the other hand, relies heavily upon complexity theory, treating
urban infrastructure systems as complex sociotechnical systems
composed not only of engineered structures, but also of the people
who make up the subsystems of users and operators.
Three examples illustrate the kinds of problem-oriented research
undertaken at the Singapore–ETH Centre and the challenges it
faces in putting new knowledge into practice. The first concerns
a project to improve the efficiency of air cooling, which in cities
such as Singapore can account for as much as one-third of all
electricity consumed. In preliminary experiments, a research team
of architects and engineers found it could reduce the energy needed
for cooling by as much as 50 percent by using a combination of
radiant-heat exchangers, decentralized ventilation, and wireless
sensors and controls. And there was another important benefit: the
new system needed much less space for ducting and machinery, so
that buildings could potentially be smaller and use fewer materials
in their construction. But despite these evident benefits, it proved
very difficult to find a developer who was prepared to install the
first system in a new building. Fortunately, a local private school
was prepared to take this risk, and the new system has now been
successfully installed in the school’s new administrative block,
where it is attracting great interest. The lesson learned from this
experience is that new ideas need to be demonstrated. We suggest
that cities could contribute to achieving sustainability by providing
the opportunities to test new ideas.
The second example concerns a project to develop a new approach
to urban river rehabilitation. The river in question is the heavily polluted
Ciliwung River in Jakarta, which floods regularly, causing untold
misery to residents in low-lying parts of the city. The research team of
hydrologists, engineers, and landscape architects used a combination
of hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and 3-D landscape modelling to assess
the consequences of potential interventions in the urban landscape.
Working closely with stakeholders, they developed design scenarios
for the Ciliwung as a public green corridor, which would restore the
riparian ecosystems and greatly improve the quality of life for local
communities. A major public event was organized to encourage public
authorities and funding agencies to implement this project, though
the response so far has been modest. The lesson learned is that
implementing radical solutions requires patience and persistence.
The third example concerns the development of tools for simulating
and visualizing urban processes. At the heart of FCL is a sophisticated
digital laboratory, Value Lab Asia, with state-of-the-art facilities
for modelling 3-D and multidimensional data. As well as being an
essential research tool, this laboratory provides an important means
for working with practitioners. Architects and planners, for example,
can visualize the changing plumes of heat swirling around buildings
as wind speed and direction changes and explore how new designs
might affect a city’s heat balance. Transport planners can gain a
bird’s eye view of the city’s traffic streaming through the streets and
test how traffic flow might be affected by adding a new bus route
or providing motorists with more information about congestion. Not
surprisingly, this facility attracts great interest from industry and
government agencies. The lesson learned is that good visualization
provides a powerful means for translating research ideas into
practical solutions.
In conclusion, the ‘new urban science’ is emerging rapidly as a
coherent body of theory and knowledge about how urban systems
function and change. Researchers in this field are challenged to
leave the ivory tower and collaborate with government agencies
and industrial partners in producing knowledge and ideas for a more
sustainable urban future. And in doing so, they are changing the ways
that universities do their work.

60 | Solutions | May-June 2016 | www.thesolutionsjournal.org
solutions. The magnitude of urban
challenges and the new opportunities
of addressing them are increasingly
recognized internationally. Recent
inclusion of sustainable, resilient, and
healthy human settlement as one of the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
is one of such example. This year the
UN Habitat III conference, a major UN
conference that is held once every 20
years, will be held in Ecuador, and a
series of global and regional initiatives
are being undertaken in the run up
towards it. Cities are gaining increasing
legitimacy and voice in international
policy processes such as COP21, with
active participation of local govern-
ment associations. New international
city networks are sharing these experi-
ences at the subnational level, and
their presence at the COP 21 meeting
was substantial. These new networks
may be a significant component of the
possible global solutions to the chal-
lenges of urbanization. Future Earth,
a 10-year global research initiative on
sustainable development, identified
urbanization and building sustainable
cities as one of eight grand societal chal-
lenges and is expected to launch the
Cities Knowledge Action Network later
this year, which will provide a global
research and engagement platform on
urban issues.20
At the national level, China
announced a National New-type
Urbanization Plan in 2014 which,
instead of being focused primarily
upon the economy and infrastructure,
is more people centered. And in
Australia, a Minister for Cities has
been appointed, emphasizing the criti-
cal role that federal government has to
play in urban issues, especially in the
areas of innovation and productivity.
The national government’s role is
critical in finding solutions, as urban
policy can be strongly influenced by
national priorities and strategies. The
National New-type Urbanization Plan
in China sets a clear target that the
share of green buildings in new con-
structions in cities and towns needs to
be 50 percent by 2020, which has the
potential to significantly improve the
energy and greenhouse gas emission
profile of cities.
Within cities, the role of non-
governmental actors in achieving
sustainability is increasingly recog-
nized. Universities have an essential role
to play in promoting urban sustainabil-
ity by producing new knowledge and
ideas and actively engaging with local
government and communities.21 The
collaboration between Singapore and
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
in Zurich (ETH) is such an example (see
box on page 59). The benefit of such col-
laboration is two-directional, with cities
providing living labs for researchers
to develop theories and perform rapid
option testing, as well as benefiting
from emerging innovations and tested
options of innovative urban research.
On the social front, the increasing
demand of growing urban populations
for civic engagement and participa-
tion in decision-making processes is
making itself felt in rapidly urbanizing
cities. A good example is the increasing
‘activism’ in cities such as Shanghai
over the loss of heritage buildings
and the clear-felling of trees for new
development. Enhanced awareness and
further empowerment of civil society
is needed to push for and engage with
inclusive governance practices.
Various forms of social, techno-
logical, and design innovations and
experimentation are burgeoning
in cities, and solutions proven else-
where are being adapted and taking
root in cities. As part of the Energy
Efficiency Improvement program, the
Australian Capital Territory recently
conducted energy saving house calls,
which involved a technician visiting
households door to door, changing
all the light bulbs and downlights to
energy-saving light bulbs, installing
door seals, and setting up standby
power controllers that turn off televi-
sions after a certain amount of time.
This news was shared via social media
by ordinary citizens and met with
pleasant surprise. The EEI scheme
mandates the electricity company to
bear the cost. And it is encouraging
to see that many such schemes are
emerging in rapidly growing cities. The
Aaron Reiss / Freedom House
Migrant laborers, known as China’s ‘floating population,’ face constant discrimination, economic hardship,
and a lack of access to basic public services in the cities that they work in. Here plain-clothes construction
laborers from the countryside are seen working in Guangzhou.

www.thesolutionsjournal.org | May-June 2016 | Solutions | 61
Bus Rapid Transit system developed in
Curitiba has now taken root in many
Asian cities such as Jakarta, Beijing,
and Guangzhou. The bicycle renting
system in Hangzhou City is not an
innovation in itself, but over 400,000
daily users makes it significant. Studies
show such urban sustainability experi-
mentations can play a significant role
in sustainability.23
There is still a long way to go in
terms of truly embedding sustain-
able principles in urban policy
and practice. In particular, a closer
collaboration between the research
community and urban policy makers
and practitioners is called for to
achieve a better understanding of
urban systems as well as how to trans-
late such understanding into informed
urban policy making and practice.
World Economic Forum / Sikarin Fon Thanachaiary
Peter Edwards, Director of the Singapore-ETH Centre and Future Cities Laboratory speaks at the World Economic Forum - Annual Meeting of the New Champions
in Dalian, China in 2015.
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BxHxTxCx
The heavily polluted Ciliwung River in Jarkarta, Indonesia. A research team from the Singapore-ETH Centre have developed design scenarios to revitalize the
river as a green corridor.