Conference Paper

A Cost Optimal Resolution for Sub-Saharan Africa powered by 100% Renewables for Year 2030 Assumptions

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Abstract

This paper determines a least cost electricity solution for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The power system discussed in this study is hourly resolved and based on 100% Renewable Energy (RE) technologies. Sub-Saharan Africa was subdivided into 16 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered according to the setup in high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid. One integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas production were also analysed. This study uncovers that RE is sufficient to cover 866.4 TWh estimated electricity demand for 2030 and additional electricity needed to fulfil 319 million m 3 of water desalination and 268 TWhLHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar PV and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) decreases from 57.8 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 54.7 €/MWh for a more centralized grid scenario. For the integrated scenario, including water desalination and synthetic natural gas demand, the levelised cost of gas and the levelised cost of water are 113.7 €/MWhLHV and 1.39 €/m 3 , respectively. A reduction of 6% in total cost and 19% in electricity generation was realized as a result of integrating desalination and power-togas sectors into the system.

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... Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that the world can be represented by 23 regions [37], or an integrated analysis for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [38] or the East Asian Super Grid [39], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The 9 major regions are: Europe [40], Eurasia [41], MENA [42], Sub-Saharan Africa [43], India/ SAARC [32], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and Pacific [44,45], North America [46] and South America [47,48]. Solar PV is represented in the model by ground-mounted optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV power plants and prosumer rooftop systems, enhanced by batteries in the cases of financial attractiveness for the prosumers. ...
... More detailed results are shown for all 145 sub-regions globally aggregated to the nine major regions for Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and India/SAARC (Fig. 4), Europe and Eurasia (Fig. 5), MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa (Fig. 6) and North America and South America (Fig. 7). Detailed information on all 145 sub-regions can be found in the respective publications [30,32,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. ...
... [30], India/SAARC (bottom left) [32] and Southeast Asia (bottom right) [44,45]. [42] and Sub-Saharan Africa (right) [43]. [46] and South America (bottom) [47,48]. ...
Conference Paper
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
... PV offers economic solutions in regions with already high but also low electrification rates for new capacity additions and for meeting demands on-grid and off-grid [17,35]. Recent studies have explored the possibility of 100% RE based power systems in different countries and regions [38][39][40][41]. Barasa et al. [40] described a 100% RE energy system for SSA, covering the electricity demand of the sectors power, water desalination and industrial gas. ...
... Recent studies have explored the possibility of 100% RE based power systems in different countries and regions [38][39][40][41]. Barasa et al. [40] described a 100% RE energy system for SSA, covering the electricity demand of the sectors power, water desalination and industrial gas. The result of the modelling of Barasa et al. determined a cost optimal mix of the various technologies for the year 2030. ...
... The result of the modelling of Barasa et al. determined a cost optimal mix of the various technologies for the year 2030. According to the results, the least cost energy solution for SSA will be powered mainly by solar PV and complemented by wind energy [40]. The results of Barasa et al. [40] are integrated in a global context in Breyer et al. [41]. ...
Article
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... Other research aggregates the sub-regions, so that an integrated analysis can be carried out for Europe-Eurasia-MENA [39] and East Asia [40], all in full hourly resolution and interconnected. The nine major world regions are: Europe [41], Eurasia [42], Middle East Northern Africa (MENA) [43], Sub-Saharan Africa [44], India/SAARC [33], Northeast Asia [30], Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim [40,45], North America [46] and South America [47]. Solar PV is represented in the model by groundmounted optimally tilted and single-axis tracking PV power plants and prosumer rooftop systems, enhanced by batteries in the cases of financial attractiveness for the prosumers. ...
... Some scenarios give some insights, but detailed information is missing for all scenarios. Nevertheless, the LUT Energy system model delivers detailed cost results, which are presented in summary in Table III and in more detail in the respective publications for the nine major world regions [30,33,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. One of the most interesting results of the 100% RE system modelling with 2030 assumptions is the low cost of the energy systems around the world. ...
... The key results of the LUT Energy system modelling are a PV capacity demand of 7. Data are based on [30,33,[40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47] and visualised in more detail in Figures 3-7, with updated results for Northeast Asia based on latest assumptions for all major world regions. Superscripts: * integrated scenario, supply share and ** annualised costs. ...
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... From the point of view of physics, it has been recognised for a long time that the amount of sunlight received yearly in the latitudes near the Equator is considerably more in the northernmost and southernmost latitudes (Barasa et al. 2016). ...
Research
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... technological set-up of a future 100% renewable energy based system may vary (see e.g. Bogdanov and Breyer 2016, Noel et al. 2016, Barasa 2016. Generally speaking, a distributed way of energy production and consumption by individuals and communities supports a radically less hierarchical society. ...
... During our work we simulate optimal RE-based energy systems globally. The world is divided into 9 geographiceconomic major regions: Europe [1], Eurasia [2], Northwest Asia [3], Southwest Asia [4], Indian subcontinent [5], Middle East North Africa (MENA) [6], Sub-Saharan Africa, [7], North America [8] and South America [9], and for every region PV generation takes an important role in energy supply [10]. For each major region an optimal structure of a REbased energy system was defined using the LUT energy system model, an hourly dispatched linear optimization model for minimizing total energy system costs, which uses real weather data and a synthetized load, while taking specific aspects and given constraints into account. ...
Conference Paper
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... The findings for Brazil that only 0.05 GW of PtG technology is needed in the power sector for 100% RE represents a singularity among all large regions in the world investigated so far with this methodology. The average ratio of electrolysers to the total installed power generation capacity in a geographical fully integrated region reaches 2.9% for Eurasia [6], 3.5% for Northeast Asia [7], 0.6% for Southeast Asia [18], 1.7% for India/SAARC [17], 1.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa [3] and 0.02% for Brazil. The ratio of hydro dams to the total installed power generation capacity reaches 16.9% for Eurasia, 3.1% for Northeast Asia, 5.6% for Southeast Asia, 3.0% for India/SAARC and 5.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa, but 29.4% for Brazil. ...
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... A renewables-based energy solution, with high shares of solar and wind, may emerge as the most cost-efficient option for African countries. Solar and wind could jointly drive a shift to power in the gas, desalination, heat and mobility sector (Barasa et al. 2016). In such a future, the challenge of African countries would be to achieve broad-based economic benefits (also in rural areas), ensure access to capital, minimize financial risks, and reduce not only the technological, but also the innovation gap to today's technological forerunners such as Germany, the US or China. ...
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... These region and countries are selected since a large share of literature analyzing flexibility options are applied for these energy systems. Nevertheless, further examples for region specific flexibility requirement analysis can be found for USA [43][44][45][46], China [47], Kazakhstan [48], India [49,50] Sub-Saharan Africa [51], Saudi Arabia [52], and Australia [53]. Most of the presented literature analyses the flexibility challenge in an energy system perspective. ...
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... Although this is a viable concern, it has also been indicated earlier that areas with some of the highest renewable energy potential are also areas with very low population density. That said, it is vital that expected trends in population growth, such as in Northern- [41,60] and Sub-Saharan Africa [156], are taken into account. Vice versa, by importing distant RES-E rather than making use of domestic resources, the economic-and employment opportunities that energy projects bring along are partly being lost to the exporting regions [76]. ...
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... for Northeast Asia , 0.6% for Southeast Asia (Gulagi et al., 2016b), 1.7% for India/SAARC (Gulagi et al., 2016a), 1.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa (Barasa M. et al., 2016) and 0.02% for Brazil. The ratio of hydro dams to the total installed power generation capacity reaches 16.9% for Eurasia, 3.1% for Northeast Asia, 5.6% for Southeast Asia, 3.0% for India/SAARC and 5.3% for Sub-Saharan Africa, but 29.4% for Brazil. ...
Conference Paper
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Presentation on the occasion of the Sustainable Energy Forum and Exhibition (SEF-2016), Kiev, October 11, 2016.
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Some 630 million people representing two-thirds of all Africans have no access to electricity, which is identified as a key barrier towards further development. Three main electrification options are considered within our work: grid extensions, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). A methodology is applied to all sub-Saharan African countries to identify in high geospatial resolution which electrification option is appropriate taking into account datasets for night light imagery, population distribution and grid infrastructure. Four different scenarios are considered reflecting grid development and electrification constraints due to low population density. The results clearly indicate a dominating role of SHS for achieving a fast electrification of the not supplied people. The share of supplied people by mini-grids is found to be rather low while grid extension serves a large share of the population. The decisive factors for these distinctions are population density and distance to grid. We applied several scenarios and sensitivities to understand the influence of these key parameters. The highest trade-off happens between SHS and grid extension depending on the selected thresholds. Mini-grid deployments remain in the range of 8 to 21%.
Article
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We develop roadmaps to transform the all-purpose energy infrastructures (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, agriculture/forestry/fishing) of 139 countries to ones powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The roadmaps envision 80% conversion by 2030 and 100% by 2050. WWS not only replaces business-as-usual (BAU) power, but also reduces it ∼42.5% because the work: energy ratio of WWS electricity exceeds that of combustion (23.0%), WWS requires no mining, transporting, or processing of fuels (12.6%), and WWS end-use efficiency is assumed to exceed that of BAU (6.9%). Converting may create ∼24.3 million more permanent, full-time jobs than jobs lost. It may avoid ∼4.6 million/year premature air-pollution deaths today and ∼3.5 million/year in 2050; ∼$22.8 trillion/year (12.7 ¢/kWh-BAU-all-energy) in 2050 air-pollution costs; and ∼$28.5 trillion/year (15.8 ¢/kWh-BAU-all-energy) in 2050 climate costs. Transitioning should also stabilize energy prices because fuel costs are zero, reduce power disruption and increase access to energy by decentralizing power, and avoid 1.5°C global warming.
Article
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In September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Agenda 2030, which comprises a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by 169 targets. 'Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030' is the seventh goal (SDG7). While access to energy refers to more than electricity, the latter is the central focus of this work. According to the World Bank's 2015 Global Tracking Framework, roughly 15% of the world's population (or 1.1 billion people) lack access to electricity, and many more rely on poor quality electricity services. The majority of those without access (87%) reside in rural areas. This paper presents results of a geographic information systems approach coupled with open access data. We present least-cost electrification strategies on a country-by-country basis for Sub-Saharan Africa. The electrification options include grid extension, mini-grid and stand-alone systems for rural, peri-urban, and urban contexts across the economy. At low levels of electricity demand there is a strong penetration of standalone technologies. However, higher electricity demand levels move the favourable electrification option from stand-alone systems to mini grid and to grid extensions.
Technical Report
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The main outcomes of this report are as follows: • The Paris Agreement implies drastic restructuring of global energy system towards sustainability • There is urgent need to decarbonise energy systems, eliminate harmful emissions beyond CO2, and increase resilience globally • Renewable energy resources, led by solar and wind power, have witnessed high sustained growth in recent years, and continued developments are set to outpace all other energy technologies • Despite their current position in global energy systems, traditional fossil fuel and nuclear power generation are becoming increasingly uncompetitive to renewable energy on environmental, social and economic grounds when the full cost of generation is accounted • Levelised costs of electricity derived from solar and wind resources already show full competitiveness in many G20 countries, and will emerge as the least cost solutions for all G20 countries in 2030 and LCOE of wind and solar PV will start outcompeting all other forms of power generation much before 2030 and possibly as early as 2020 • While bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) offer some potential to lower global GHG emissions, fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents an economically infeasible risk • The poor economic feasibility of CCS is further exacerbated by high levels of socialised risk and threats to human health • Storage technologies can play a key role in the transition towards sustainability by providing complementary flexibility to solar and wind resources • Especially notable is the fast decline in battery storage costs and the significant potential of EV batteries in global energy systems • Huge fossil fuel and nuclear power subsidies contribute to an unequal playing field, distort power market economics, promote wasteful production, and undermine efforts to mitigate climate change • Stronger efforts must be made to internalise the high social, environmental and economic burdens of fossil fuel and nuclear power, which have often been neglected • Several international reports and academic studies indicate that high shares of renewables, especially solar and wind power, can be achieved in global energy systems • The G20 countries will have prominent roles in leading the energy transition needed to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement • Fiscal incentives and regulatory measures in the G20 countries can foster an environment that is conducive to high uptake of renewables and stronger climate action • A full acknowledgement must be made of past, present and future risks related to the global energy system transition
Article
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This paper introduces a value chain design for transportation fuels and a respective business case taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis and hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL) based on hourly resolved full load hours (FLh). The value chain is based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into synthetic fuels, mainly diesel. Results show that the proposed RE-diesel value chains are competitive for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the RE-PtL value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy and a special focus on mid to long-term electrolyser and H2tL efficiency improvements. The substitution of fossil fuels by hybrid PV-Wind power plants could create a PV-wind market potential in the order of terawatts.
Article
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Isolated diesel systems are the main electricity generation method in many rural areas nowadays and represent a viable option to supply un-electrified villages in the Global South. However, this generation scheme leads to a dependency on fossil fuels and their price volatility on a global market with a projected increase of costs in the future. At the same time, high carbon dioxide emissions increase environmental costs. Up to date, many hybrid mini-grid pilot projects and case studies were performed globally to assess how the inclusion of renewable energy in these systems can enhance technical and economic performance. This provides insights in local characteristics and challenges of that approach on a case by case basis. This study, on the other hand, takes a look at the overall global potential for solar–battery–diesel mini-grids for rural electrification and derives a comparative analysis of the respective regions. The introduction of a GIS-based analysis in combination with a sophisticated mini-grid simulation allows a highly automated approach to draw global conclusions with the option to downscale to local regions. The results of the methodology show that in many regions substantial LCOE reductions are achievable by introducing solar–battery–diesel systems compared to pure diesel systems. Furthermore, the crucial role of spatial varying of diesel fuel prices over different regions and the impacts on the feasibility of solar–battery–diesel systems can be observed.
Article
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Scientists have argued that no more than 275GtC (IPCC, 2013) of the world’s reserves of fossil fuels of 746GtC can be produced in this century if the world is to restrict anthropogenic climate change to ≤2°C. This has raised concerns about the risk of these reserves becoming “stranded assets” and creating a dangerous “carbon bubble” with serious impacts on global financial markets, leading in turn to discussions of appropriate investor and consumer actions. However, previous studies have not always clearly distinguished between reserves and resources, nor differentiated reserves held by investor-owned and state-owned companies with the capital, infrastructure, and capacity to develop them in the short term from those held by nation-states that may or may not have such capacity. This paper analyzes the potential emissions of CO2 and methane from the proved reserves as reported by the world's largest producers of oil, natural gas, and coal. We focus on the seventy companies and eight government-run industries that produced 63% of the world’s fossil fuels from 1750 to 2010 (Heede, 2014), and have the technological and financial capacity to develop these reserves. While any reserve analysis is subject to uncertainty, we demonstrate that production of these reported reserves will result in emissions of 440GtC of carbon dioxide, or 160% of the remaining 275GtC carbon budget. Of the 440GtC total, the 42 investor-owned oil, gas, and coal companies hold reserves with potential emissions of 44GtC (16% of the remaining carbon budget, hereafter RCB), whereas the 28 state-owned entities possess reserves of 210GtC (76% of the RCB). This analysis suggests that what may be needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system differs when one considers the state-owned entities vs. the investor-owned entities. For the former, there is a profound risk involved simply in the prospect of their extracting their proved reserves. For the latter, the risk arises not so much from their relatively small proved reserves, but from their on-going exploration and development of new fossil fuel resources. For preventing DAI overall, effective action must include the state-owned companies, the investor-owned companies, and governments. However, given that the majority of the world's reserves are coal resources owned by governments with little capacity to extract them in the near term, we suggest that the more immediate urgency lies with the private sector, and that investor and consumer pressure should focus on phasing out these companies’ on-going exploration programs.
Poster
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Poster on the occasion of the 4th Conference on Carbon Dioxide as Feedstock for Fuels, Chemistry and Polymers in Essen, Germany, on September 29 - 30, 2015.
Article
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The present paper introduces the results of a spatial-economic analysis that identifies the least cost rural electrification options that can bring the persistent energy poverty to an end in Sub Saharan Africa. The rationale behind the analysis is that the applicable energy technologies have gone through fundamental changes and these have profound effects on the competitiveness of the various options. The least cost distributed generation options are calculated for each geographical location for mini hydro, off grid PV and diesel generators options and it is compared to the electricity grid extension. The methodology presented in this manuscript organises the scarcely available energy-related local and regional geo-information into comprehensible maps. The set of tools presented and the results based on those analyses can support decision and policy makers to plan for the least-cost rural electrification options while also adapting to the most effective way to reduce energy poverty. This can help in the national rural electrification plans by delineating which communities cannot be reached by existing grid without excessive extension costs and gives the alternative distributed generation option.
Article
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In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, countries like Germany and Japan have planned a phase-out of nuclear generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has yet to become a commercially viable technology with little prospect of doing so without strong climate policy to spur development. The possibility of using renewable power generation from wind and solar as a non-emitting alternative to replace a nuclear phase-out or failure to deploy CCS technology is investigated using scenarios from EMF27 and the POLES model. A strong carbon price appears necessary to have significant penetration of renewables regardless of alternative generation technologies available, but especially if nuclear or CCS are absent from the energy supply system. The feasibility of replacing nuclear generation appears possible at realistic costs (evaluated as total abatement costs and final user prices to households); however for ambitious climate policies, such as a 450 ppm target, CCS could represent a critical technology that renewables will not be able to fully replace without unbearable economic costs.
Article
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This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however—with the exception of low temperature heat—there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply—are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.
Article
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Sub-Saharan Africa lacks electricity. We estimate the cost of providing electricity to the region. To do so, we build an optimisation model that links the electricity demand to the supply and links the supply to the generation, distribution and transmission of electricity between countries. To the best of our knowledge, such a model is novel in the literature.We determine that the investment cost of providing electricity to Sub-Saharan Africa over a 10-year period is between 160 and 215 billion U.S. dollars, depending on assumptions for electricity access and the cross-country electricity trade. Although the electricity trade increases the investment cost estimate moderately, it provides a high return to African countries and is cost-efficient overall.
Article
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Three rural electrification options are analysed showing the cost optimal conditions for a sustainable energy development applying renewable energy sources in Africa. A spatial electricity cost model has been designed to point out whether diesel generators, photovoltaic systems or extension of the grid are the least-cost option in off-grid areas. The resulting mapping application offers support to decide in which regions the communities could be electrified either within the grid or in an isolated mini-grid. Donor programs and National Rural Electrification Agencies (or equivalent governmental departments) could use this type of delineation for their program boundaries and then could use the local optimization tools adapted to the prevailing parameters.
Article
Consolidated tables showing an extensive listing of the highest independently confirmed efficiencies for solar cells and modules are presented. Guidelines for inclusion of results into these tables are outlined and new entries since July 2017 are reviewed, together with progress over the last 25 years. Appendices are included documenting area definitions and also listing recognised test centres.
Article
The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5-year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership.
Article
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply.
Article
Global power plant capacity has experienced a historical evolution, showing noticeable patterns over the years: continuous growth to meet increasing demand, and renewable energy sources have played a vital role in global electrification from the beginning, first in the form of hydropower but also wind energy and solar photovoltaics. With increasing awareness of global environmental and societal problems such as climate change, heavy metal induced health issues and the growth related cost reduction of renewable electricity technologies, the past two decades have witnessed an accelerated increase in the use of renewable sources. A database was compiled using major accessible datasets with the purpose of analyzing the composition and evolution of the global power sector from a novel sustainability perspective. Also a new sustainability indicator has been introduced for a better monitoring of progress in the power sector. The key objective is to provide a simple tool for monitoring the past, present and future development of national power systems towards sustainability based on a detailed global power capacity database. The main findings are the trend of the sustainability indicator projecting very high levels of sustainability before the middle of the century on a global level, decommissioned power plants indicating an average power plant technical lifetime of about 40 years for coal, 34 years for gas and 34 years for oil-fired power plants, whereas the lifetime of hydropower plants seems to be rather unlimited due to repeated refurbishments, and the overall trend of increasing sustainability in the power sector being of utmost relevance for managing the environmental and societal challenges ahead. To achieve the 2 °C climate change target, zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be required. This would lead to stranded assets of about 300 GW of coal power plants already commissioned by 2014. Gas and oil-fired power plants may be shifted to renewable-based fuels. Present power capacity investments have already to anticipate these environmental and societal sustainability boundaries or accept the risk of becoming stranded assets.
Conference Paper
The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability for executing the COP21 agreement. Solar PV offers excellent characteristics to play a major role for this energy transition. Key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV for the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors at the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT). The available energy transition scenarios have no consensus view on the future role of PV, but a progressive group of scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed by the LUT Energy system model. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1 – 9.1 TWp for today's electricity sector and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term (year 2030 assumptions set as reference). The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and due to the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. The cost reductions are taken into account for the year 2030, but are expected to further proceed beyond this reference year. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-to long-term for the global energy supply.
Conference Paper
With growing demand for transportation fuels such as diesel and concerns about climate change, this paper introduces a new value chain design for transportation fuels and a respective business case taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chain is based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into synthetic fuels, mainly diesel. This RE-diesel can be shipped to everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis and hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL) are done based on annual full load hours (FLh). A combination of 5 GWp PV single-axis tracking and wind onshore power have been applied. Results show that the proposed RE-diesel value chains are competitive for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79-135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-diesel could become competitive to conventional diesel from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The cost range would be an upper limit for the conventional diesel price in the long-term and RE-diesel can become competitive whenever the fossil fuel prices are higher than the level mentioned and the cost assumptions expected for the year 2030 are achieved. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the RE-PtL value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy and a special focus on mid to long-term electrolyser and H2tL efficiency improvements. The substitution of fossil fuels by hybrid PV-Wind power plants could create a PV-wind market potential in the order of terawatts.
Book
The degradation of land and water resources resulting primarily from agricultural activities has had enormous impact on human society. In order to alleviate this problem an advanced understanding of the state of our resources and the process of degradation is needed. Conserving Land, Protecting Water includes an overview of existing literature focusing on global patterns of land and water degradation and discussions of new insights drawn from successful case studies on reversing soil and water degradation and their impact on food and environmental security.
Article
This study demonstrates how seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plants, necessary to meet increasing future global water demand, can be powered solely through renewable energy. Hybrid PV–wind–battery and power-to-gas (PtG) power plants allow for optimal utilisation of the installed desalination capacity, resulting in water production costs competitive with that of existing fossil fuel powered SWRO plants. In this paper, we provide a global estimate of the water production cost for the 2030 desalination demand with renewable electricity generation costs for 2030 for an optimised local system configuration based on an hourly temporal and 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. The SWRO desalination capacity required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to about 2374 million m3/day. The levelised cost of water (LCOW), which includes water production, electricity, water transportation and water storage costs, for regions of desalination demand in 2030, is found to lie between 0.59 €/m3–2.81 €/m3, depending on renewable resource availability and cost of water transport to demand sites. The global system required to meet the 2030 global water demand is estimated to cost 9790 billion € of initial investments. It is possible to overcome the water supply limitations in a sustainable and financially competitive way.
Article
In order to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system, an hourly resolved model has been created based on linear optimization of energy system parameters under given constrains. The model is comprised of five scenarios for 100% renewable energy power systems in North-East Asia with different high voltage direct current transmission grid development levels, including industrial gas demand and additional energy security. Renewables can supply enough energy to cover the estimated electricity and gas demands of the area in the year 2030 and deliver more than 2000 TW hth of heat on a cost competitive level of 84 €/MW hel for electricity. Further, this can be accomplished for a synthetic natural gas price at the 2013 Japanese liquefied natural gas import price level and at no additional generation costs for the available heat. The total area system cost could reach 69.4 €/MW hel, if only the electricity sector is taken into account. In this system about 20% of the energy is exchanged between the 13 regions, reflecting a rather decentralized character which is supplied 27% by stored energy. The major storage technologies are batteries for daily storage and power-to-gas for seasonal storage. Prosumers are likely to play a significant role due to favourable economics. A highly resilient energy system with very high energy security standards would increase the electricity cost by 23% to 85.6 €/MW hel. The results clearly show that a 100% renewable energy based system is feasible and lower in cost than nuclear energy and fossil carbon capture and storage alternatives.
Book
Presenting boundary conditions for the economic and environmental utilization of geothermal technology, this is the first book to provide basic knowledge on the topic in such detail. The editor is the coordinator of the European Geothermic Research Initiative, while the authors are experts for the various geological situations in Europe with high temperature reservoirs in shallow and deep horizons. With its perspectives for R&D in geothermic technology concluding each chapter, this ready reference will be of great value to scientists and decision-makers in research and politics, as well as those giving courses in petroleum engineering, for example.
Presentation
Presentation at the LUT Doctorial School Conference in Lappeenranta at December 10, 2015.
Article
We find that local institutions inherited from the precolonial era continue to play an important role in natural resource governance in Africa. Using satellite image data, we find a significant and robust relationship between deforestation and precolonial succession rules of local leaders (local chiefs). In particular, we find that those precolonial areas where local leaders were appointed by 'social standing' have higher rates of deforestation compared to the base case of hereditary rule and where local leaders were appointed from above (by paramount chiefs). While the transmission mechanisms behind these results are complex, we suggest that areas where local leaders were appointed by social standing are more likely to have poorer institutions governing local leadership and forest management.
Article
In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required – one aspect of the many inputs required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.
Conference Paper
Increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including the fossil fuel based energy sector, emerge the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system as the way to stop pollution and global warming but also to reduce total energy system cost. Small population density and availability of various types of RE resources in Eurasian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising project of building a Super Grid connecting different Eurasian regions' energy resources to reach synergy effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. For every sub-region it is defined a cost-optimal distributed and centralized mix of energy technologies and storage options, optimal capacities and hourly generation. Charge and discharge profiles of storages are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. System cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed. The results show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.
Conference Paper
A need for the development of a renewable energy (RE) based system has emerged from the fast rise of electricity demand and increasing ecological problems provoked by human activities, including a fossil fuel based energy sector. Availability of various types of RE resources in NorthEast Asian regions including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy resources enables the very promising vision of building a Super Grid connecting different regions' energy resources to achieve synergistic effects and make a 100% RE supply possible. The regions are composed of Japan, China, North and South Korea, Mongolia, East Siberia and Far Eastern federal districts of Russia. The energy mix of energy supply consists of distributed small-scale rooftop PV and centralized large scale solar PV, solar thermal electricity generation (CSP), wind onshore, hydropower, geothermal energy, bioenergy, and four different energy storage technologies. For every sub-region a cost-optimal mix of energy technologies and storage options is defined, optimal capacities are computed for regions interconnected by high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines, system cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each sub-region are computed, and total system LCOE of 58 – 77 €/MWh, depending on scenario assumptions, can be obtained. Integration of energy sectors leads to improved total system LCOE. The results clearly show that a 100% RE-based system is lower in cost than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. Solar PV is a core component for energy supply and reducing the total system costs.
Conference Paper
Photovoltaics (PV) is expected to become one of the cheapest forms of electricity generation during the next decades. The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of PV has already reached grid parity with retail electricity in many markets and is approaching wholesale parity in some countries. In this paper, it is estimated that the PV LCOE in main European markets is going to decrease from 2015 to 2030 by about 45% and to 2050 by about 60%. The LCOE for utility-scale PV in Europe will be about 25-45 €/MWh in 2030 and about 15-30 €/MWh in 2050 depending on the location. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the most important parameter together with the annual irradiation in the calculation of the PV LCOE. The uncertainty in capital and operational expenditure (CAPEX and OPEX) is relatively less important while the system lifetime and degradation have only a minor effect. The work for this paper has been carried out under the framework of the EU PV Technology Platform.
Research
Poster on the occasion of the 2nd International Conference on Desalination using Membrane Technology in Singapore on July 26 - 29, 2015.
Conference Paper
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. An updated grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for 215 countries/ islands and a total of 645 market segments all over the world. High PV industry growth rates have enabled a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events have already occurred. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of up to 96% of total global electricity market till 2030. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Technical Report
In large parts of the world, there is a massive need for electrification. Especially in remote areas the valuable access to electricity is often missing. Mini-Grids that enable the operation of machines are particularly suitable to supply communities in a sustainable way with electricity and to promote local progress. In particular PV is suited for the supply of island grids as a decentralized source of energy. In many countries photovoltaic is already an economic alternative to diesel supply and can provide economically up to 90% of energy consumption in an island grid. Profitability, a large market potential and a well political and financial environment for stand-alone PV systems are found especially in East Africa and some South American and Asian countries. The reasons for the failure of Mini-Grids are bad political conditions, lack of credit availability and sometimes inadequate project development. In particular, the funding represents often one of the biggest obstacles for the successful implementation of a project. A sustainable operation is possible if the political and financial environment is met complemented by a comprehensive and provident planning.. Cultural aspects, a cost covering and affordable tariff system and ensuring technical reliability are important elements of successful system integration. The interests of users, operators, financiers and governmental institutions should complement each other positively. Need for action exists yet mainly at the political level in order to create better conditions. In particular, the benefits of renewable energies are not sufficiently known by many decision makers. In addition potential financiers want to be convinced by positive examples. There are by now some promising business models that can be easily reproduced in a country with clear conditions and good financing options. In this way, in a relatively short period of time access to sustainable electrical energy could be enabled for many people in developing countries.
Conference Paper
People in rural regions of various developing countries suffer on having no access to modern forms of energy, in particular electricity. This work is focussed on regions inhabited by these people and presents insights on the short financial amortization periods of solar home systems and photovoltaic pico systems. With amortization periods of about 6 to 18 months, pico systems represent a capitalized value of about 10 to 45 times the original capital expenditures at the point of full financial amortization. For a significantly higher electricity demand hybrid PV mini-grids might be an excellent solution for rural electrification. However the economics are still a challenge. Based on excellent economics of small PV applications the total global residential small PV market potential is estimated to about 8 GWp and 80 bn€. The total PV-based off-grid market potential for the not yet electrified people might be estimated to about 70 GW and roughly 750 bn€.
Article
Grid-parity is a very important milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. A grid-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Relevant assumptions for the model are given, and its key driving forces are discussed in detail. Results of the analysis are shown for more than 150 countries and a total of 305 market segments all over the world, representing 98.0% of world population and 99.7% of global gross domestic product. High PV industry growth rates enable a fast reduction of LCOE. Depletion of fossil fuel resources and climate change mitigation forces societies to internalize these effects and pave the way for sustainable energy technologies. First grid-parity events occur right now. The 2010s are characterized by ongoing grid-parity events throughout the most regions in the world, reaching an addressable market of about 75–90% of total global electricity market. In consequence, new political frameworks for maximizing social benefits will be required. In parallel, PV industry tackle its next milestone, fuel-parity. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
Article
In rural areas of Tanzania electricity is mainly produced by diesel plants. To reduce generation costs the introduction of photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage is a viable option. For an implementation strategy, diesel plants are localized with a geospatial analysis and the potential for hybridization with PV and battery systems is investigated by simulating a PV-battery- diesel system. Thereby a maximal potential for 23.6 MWp PV and 56.8 MWh of battery capacity resulting in a cost reduction of 17 ct€/kWh is discovered. Battery costs should be below a threshold of 475 €/kWh to become a significant part of the hybrid system.
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This study demonstrates – based on a dynamical simulation of a global, decentralized 100% renewable electricity supply scenario – that a global climate-neutral electricity supply based on the volatile energy sources photovoltaics (PV), wind energy (onshore) and concentrated solar power (CSP) is feasible at decent cost. A central ingredient of this study is a sophisticated model for the hourly electric load demand in >160 countries. To guarantee matching of load demand in each hour, the volatile primary energy sources are complemented by three electricity storage options: batteries, high-temperature thermal energy storage coupled with steam turbine, and renewable power methane (generated via the Power to Gas process) which is reconverted to electricity in gas turbines. The study determines – on a global grid with 1°x1° resolution – the required power plant and storage capacities as well as the hourly dispatch for a 100% renewable electricity supply under the constraint of minimized total system cost (LCOE). Aggregating the results on a national level results in an levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) range of 80-200 EUR/MWh (on a projected cost basis for the year 2020) in this very decentralized approach. As a global average, 142 EUR/MWh are found. Due to the restricted number of technologies considered here, this represents an upper limit for the electricity cost in a fully renewable electricity supply.
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An estimation of the Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential for the Iberian Peninsula is presented in this work. As a first step, the temperature at different depths (from 3500 m to 9500 m, in 1000 m steps) has been estimated from existing heat flow, temperature at 1000 m and temperature at 2000 m depth data. From the obtained temperature-at-depth data, an evaluation of the available heat stored for each 1 km thick layer between 3 and 10 km depth, under some limiting hypotheses, has been made. Results are presented as the net electrical power that could be installed, considering that the available thermal energy stored is extracted during a 30 year project life. The results are presented globally for the Iberian Peninsula and separately for Portugal (continental Portugal), Spain (continental Spain plus the Balearic Islands) and for each one of the administrative regions included in the study. Nearly 6% of the surface of the Iberian Peninsula, at a depth of 3500 m has a temperature higher than 150 °C. This surface increases to more than 50% at 5500 m depth, and more than 90% at 7500 m depth. The Enhanced Geothermal System's theoretical technical potential in the Iberian Peninsula, up to a 10 km depth (3 km–10 km) and for temperatures above 150 °C, expressed as potential installed electrical power, is as high as 700 GWe, which is more than 5 times today's total electricity capacity installed in the Iberian Peninsula (renewable, conventional thermal and nuclear).
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In this work an estimation and comparison of the technical and sustainable potentials of EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) in Europe is presented. The temperatures at depths of (3500–9500) m were firstly calculated from the available data of temperatures at surface, 1000 m and 2000 m depth, and heat flow. Next the available thermal energy stored in each 1000 m thick layer along the considered depths was evaluated. At this point, the EGS technical potential was estimated and results are presented as installable net electrical power by considering a 30 year time project. A method to estimate the EGS sustainable potential is proposed and the results are compared with the technical potential. Results are presented for the European territory as a whole and individually for each one of the European countries. Estimations for Turkey and the Caucasus region are also presented. Under the hypotheses considered in our study, the technical potential of EGS in Europe for temperatures above 150 °C and depths of between 3 km and 10 km was estimated to be more than 6500 GWe. The part of this technical potential that can be considered as ‘sustainable’ or ‘renewable’ potential was estimated to be 35 GWe.
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In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues.Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation.Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.
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Sub-Saharan Africa faces chronic power problems, including insufficient generation capacity, low connectivity, poor reliability, and high costs, all of which constrain development. The investment requirements to meet Africa's power needs are noted and strategies to address the funding gap are set out. The time for an ideological debate on public versus private investment is over—both are needed. Africa's key challenges are the management of hybrid power markets, the reform of state-owned utilities, cost-reflective pricing, better targeting of subsidies, the nimbler rollout of electrification, and stronger regional integration.
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Growth in biofuel production, which is meant to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil en-ergy demand, is increasingly seen as a threat to food supply and natural habitats. Using photovoltaics (PV) to directly convert solar radiation into electricity for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is an alterna-tive to photosynthesis, which suffers from a very low energy conversion efficiency. Assessments need to be spatially explicit, since solar insolation and crop yields vary widely between locations. This paper therefore compares direct land use, life cycle GHG emissions and fossil fuel requirements of five differ-ent sun-to-wheels conversion pathways for every county in the contiguous U.S.: Ethanol from corn or switchgrass for internal combustion vehicles (ICVs), electricity from corn or switchgrass for BEVs, and PV electricity for BEVs. Even the most land-use efficient biomass-based pathway (i.e., switchgrass bio-electricity in U.S. counties with hypothetical crop yields of over 24 tonnes/ha) requires 29 times more land than the PV-based alternative in the same locations. PV BEV systems also have the lowest life cy-cle GHG emissions throughout the U.S. and the lowest fossil fuel inputs, except for locations with hypothetical switchgrass yields of 16 or more tonnes/ha. Including indirect land use effects further strengthens the case for PV.
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Discussions about the origin of energy in a post fossil fuel world are quickly dominated by a general exchange of mostly fruitless arguments about the future contribution of nuclear energy. In this paper we discuss the status of nuclear energy today and analyze its potential evolution during the next 10-20 years. The facts are that nuclear energy contributes only about 14% of the world's electric energy mix today, and as electric energy contributes itself only about 16% to the end energy use, its contribution is essentially negligible. Still, nuclear energy is plagued already with a long list of unsolved problems. Among the less known problems one finds the difficulties that nuclear plants can not provide power according to needs, but have to be operated at full power also during times of low demand. As a result, regions with large contributions from nuclear power need some backup hydropower storage systems. Without sufficient storage capacity, cheap electric energy is suggested during low demand times, which obviously results in wasteful applications. The better known problems, without solutions since at least 40 years, are the final safe storage of the accumulated highly radioactive nuclear waste, that uranium itself is a very limited and non renewable energy resource and that enormous amounts of human resources, urgently needed to find a still unknown path towards a low energy future, are blocked by useless research on fusion energy. Thus, nuclear energy is not a solution to our energy worries but part of the problem.
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In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.
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Climate change, pollution, and energy insecurity are among the greatest problems of our time. Addressing them requires major changes in our energy infrastructure. Here, we analyze the feasibility of providing worldwide energy for all purposes (electric power, transportation, heating/cooling, etc.) from wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). In Part I, we discuss WWS energy system characteristics, current and future energy demand, availability of WWS resources, numbers of WWS devices, and area and material requirements. In Part II, we address variability, economics, and policy of WWS energy. We estimate that ~3,800,000 5Â MW wind turbines, ~49,000 300Â MW concentrated solar plants, ~40,000 300Â MW solar PV power plants, ~1.7 billion 3Â kW rooftop PV systems, ~5350 100Â MW geothermal power plants, ~270 new 1300Â MW hydroelectric power plants, ~720,000 0.75Â MW wave devices, and ~490,000 1Â MW tidal turbines can power a 2030 WWS world that uses electricity and electrolytic hydrogen for all purposes. Such a WWS infrastructure reduces world power demand by 30% and requires only ~0.41% and ~0.59% more of the world's land for footprint and spacing, respectively. We suggest producing all new energy with WWS by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by 2050. Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic. The energy cost in a WWS world should be similar to that today.
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This Paper discusses integrated gas and electricity transmission planning in power generation and energy development in Africa with their benefits, and developments in HVDC Engineering Technology in harnessing large-scale hydroelectric sites for interconnected regional power systems. It focuses on the present status and future prospect of electricity infrastructure from the viewpoint of generation and transmission development, policies and lessons from global deregulation, advances in global research, and development (R&D) and strategies to influence Africa’s integration into the Global transition to knowledge-based economies. It examines regional power pools as an economic development paradigm by emphasizing the systems effects that lead to improving economical, ecological and technological efficiencies by the joint operation of power systems. The paper goes on to discuss the energy crisis and development issues in Africa (strategic diagonal and convergent approach with components), the Southern African power pool development plan, and the Southern African short-term energy market. Active projects such as the Westcor project representing an initial phase of the large regional South African Power Pool are also discussed. The project showcases the new milestones in HVDC technology used to harness large hydro potential contributing to the pool. Also discussed is interconnection of the Gulf States that will facilitate reserve sharing between the systems and electricity trading between the Gulf States.