Article

GIS-based multi-criteria analysis of breeding habitats for recolonising species: New Zealand sea lions

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Abstract

The New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) is a threatened endemic species, with only three breeding colonies in the sub-Antarctic islands. Since 1993, there has been evidence for recolonisation of mainland New Zealand. Yet the coast that the sea lion has returned to only has fragmented and unevenly distributed potential habitats due to coastal urbanisation and development. Therefore, the need to identify and protect potential breeding habitats for recolonisation is a priority for management. A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis was used to identify potential suitable habitats for a 1600 km length of the NZ South Island coast based on distance to anthropogenic disturbance (urban areas, roads), distance to desirable environmental features (beaches, estuaries) and presence of suitable habitat/land access. From this model, we identified preliminary suitable habitat for breeding sites on the Otago Peninsula (east coast) and Catlins Coast (south). We independently detected some of the current dominant areas used by recolonising sea lions as well as identifying some promising new sites. We discuss the limitation of the results of this case study and the need for further data to be added to the model in the face of limited data availability. Overcoming this data limitation will meet an increasing need for a New Zealand-wide study for determining potential habitat for NZ sea lions. The results of such a study would identify areas to allow real-world management (protection or restoration) of the limited potential breeding sites for New Zealand sea lions. This new method could also be used for other recolonising species and encourage management of areas most likely to be recolonized by them.

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... The onshore 50% core ranges bordered estuarine habitats with adjacent sandy beaches, which are two important variables associated with NZSL breeding aggregations ( Figure 6; Augé et al., 2012a;MacMillan et al., 2016). SL3 spent time around the Clutha River estuary on the northern end of the range, and SL2 frequented the Tahakopa River mouth on the southern end ( Figure 5b). ...
... Tahakopa and Waipati Bays have been identified as potential future breeding areas based on the estuarine and beach habitat (MacMillan et al., 2016). The onshore 95% home and 50% core ranges of SL2 overlapped with these two bays, despite the absence of a pup. ...
Article
New Zealand sea lions (NZSL, Phocarctos hookeri) were extirpated from mainland New Zealand during pre‐European subsistence hunting. They began reoccupying South Island in 1994, and the newest breeding colony arose in 2006 along the Catlins Coast on southeastern South Island and currently consists of <10 individuals. The goal of this study was to use animal‐borne satellite telemeters and miniature data recorders (MDRs) to determine home ranges, three‐dimensional movements, and foraging strategy of female NZSL along the Catlins Coast during the austral winter of 2019. Total home ranges were small (97 km2) and primarily restricted to nearshore areas. Dives were shallow (8.9 m), short in duration (1.4 min), and had a mean swimming speed of 1.5 m s−1. We identified three dive types based primarily on total dive duration, mean maximum depth, total distance swam, and path linearity. The estimated at‐sea metabolic rate varied among dive types because of differences in flipper stroke frequency and swim speed. Female NZSL along the Catlins Coast have smaller home ranges and make shorter foraging trips compared with females in the Auckland Islands, and suitable habitat for breeding and prey availability along the southeast coast are encouraging for future population growth.
... low numbers should encompass every individual, along with the preservation and enhancement of their habitat, including the potential habitats and ecosystems that might be critical for the species' survival (MacMillan,Moore, Augé, & Chilvers, 2016;Reeves, 2008;Reeves & Reijnders, 2002). Relict subpopulations across a species' range mighthave an important role by which severely depleted populations can recover (Bonin, Goebel, Forcada, Burton, & Hoffman, 2013; Notarbartolo di Sciara & Kotomatas, 2016); in this context, LDAs may play an important role in the survival, recovery, and the overall distribution of the Mediterranean monk seal.Examples of recovery and recolonization of former habitat by pinniped species are widely acknowledged(Bonin et al., 2013;Cammen et al., 2018;Grandi et al., 2018;Hoelzel, Fleischer, Campagna, Le Boeuf, & Alvord, 2002;Kirkwood, Warneke, & Arnould, 2009;MacMillan et al., 2016;Pyle, Long, Shonewald, Jones, & Roletto, 2001;Reijnders, van Dijk, & Kuiper, 1995). ...
... low numbers should encompass every individual, along with the preservation and enhancement of their habitat, including the potential habitats and ecosystems that might be critical for the species' survival (MacMillan,Moore, Augé, & Chilvers, 2016;Reeves, 2008;Reeves & Reijnders, 2002). Relict subpopulations across a species' range mighthave an important role by which severely depleted populations can recover (Bonin, Goebel, Forcada, Burton, & Hoffman, 2013; Notarbartolo di Sciara & Kotomatas, 2016); in this context, LDAs may play an important role in the survival, recovery, and the overall distribution of the Mediterranean monk seal.Examples of recovery and recolonization of former habitat by pinniped species are widely acknowledged(Bonin et al., 2013;Cammen et al., 2018;Grandi et al., 2018;Hoelzel, Fleischer, Campagna, Le Boeuf, & Alvord, 2002;Kirkwood, Warneke, & Arnould, 2009;MacMillan et al., 2016;Pyle, Long, Shonewald, Jones, & Roletto, 2001;Reijnders, van Dijk, & Kuiper, 1995). In addition, temporarymigration and the occurrence of transient or visitor animals may have important implications for conservation of the populations and groups of many endangered marine mammals ranging across borders of different countries (Bearzi, Bonizzoni, & Gonzalvo, 2011; Genov et al., 2016; Stern, 2009). ...
Article
• In ancient times, the distribution range of the Mediterranean monk seal (Monachus monachus) extended all over the coasts of the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and parts of the north‐eastern Atlantic coast. • Nowadays, the species is classified as Endangered and the current total world population is stated to consist of ~700 animals, though numbers mostly express best estimates. Distribution patterns in documents of international authorities from the last 15 years indicate the species' extinction in a number of Mediterranean countries, whereas in some of them only a few individuals are thought to survive and in others the status is unknown. • This study analyses recent monk seal sightings over the period from 2000 to 2014 in the Mediterranean Basin. The locations of the sightings cover most of the study area and indicate a spreading of individual seals or a more stable presence in regions where the species was considered extinct. • The investigation pointed out that efforts for the protection of monk seals, the most endangered marine mammal in Europe, should encompass all areas where monk seal sightings have been recorded, including the protection and conservation of potential suitable habitats in countries where the species apparently no longer exists. • Appropriate conservation measures, such as the establishment of marine protected areas and sustainable management of fisheries, will aid natural recolonization and enhance gene flow between distant regions throughout the Mediterranean Basin, allowing the reconnection of distant populations or individual animals.
... Habitat use and suitability, and behaviour and anthropogenic pressure across the island and the surrounding archipelago need to be further assessed in the long term to better understand the extent of the monk seal population and to adapt management measures accordingly. In parallel, targeted awareness and educational campaigns could improve the engagement of local communities and visitors in the conservation of the monk seal, as well as in the preservation and recovery of its habitat [34,35]. ...
Article
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With a current global estimation of 600–700 individuals, Monachus monachus is considered among the most threatened seal species globally and is ranked as “Endangered” by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. The Mediterranean distribution of the species is fragmented, and the largest known sub-population inhabits its easternmost areas. The present study analyses the occurrence of M. monachus on Samos Island, in the north-eastern Aegean Sea, Greece. From May 2017 to November 2019, data were collected through a combination of monitoring approaches, including visual monitoring from a land position, opportunistic sightings collected by citizen science, and data of stranded individuals. Results indicate the constant occurrence of monk seals in the waters and coastal areas of Samos Island, confirming the importance of this area for conservation purposes. Furthermore, the results show that an integrated methodological approach can contribute to enhancing and increasing data collection, representing an effective method for conservation studies. This approach could be applied in other locations, allowing the scientific community to identify regions of interest, where to expand targeted monitoring and apply conservation measures.
... To include human impacts on the mainland (Department of Conservation, 2017;Lalas, 2008;MacMillan et al., 2016), we used an expert opinion-based evaluation via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (Saaty, 1990), a weighted MCDA. Using pairwise comparisons, we determined criteria weights for three human impact variables (residential areas, sealed and unsealed road distances; work ranked residential areas as two times more of a potential disturbance to NZSLs than roads, road types were not evaluated. ...
Article
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Species' ranges are changing at accelerating rates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools that help rangers and decision‐makers prepare for reintroductions, range shifts, reductions and/or expansions by predicting habitat suitability across landscapes. Yet, range‐expanding or ‐shifting species in particular face other challenges that traditional SDM procedures cannot quantify, due to large differences between a species' currently occupied range and potential future range. The realism of SDMs is thus lost and not as useful for conservation management in practice. Here, we address these challenges with an extended assessment of habitat suitability through an integrated SDM database ( iSDMdb ). The iSDMdb is a spatial database of predicted sites in a species' prediction range, derived from SDM results, and is a single spatial feature that contains additional, user‐friendly data fields that synthesise and summarise SDM predictions and uncertainty, human impacts, restoration features, novel preferences in novel spaces and management priorities. To illustrate its utility, we used the endangered New Zealand sea lion Phocarctos hookeri . We consulted with wildlife rangers, decision‐makers and sea lion experts to supplement SDM predictions with additional, more realistic and applicable information for management. Almost half the data fields included in this database resulted from engaging with these end‐users during our study. The SDM found 395 predicted sites. However, the iSDMdb 's additional assessments showed that the actual suitability of most sites (90%) was questionable due to human impacts. >50% of sites contained unnatural barriers (fences, grazing grasslands), and 75% of sites had roads located within the species' range of inland movement. Just 5% of the predicted sites were mostly (>80%) protected. Integrating SDM results with supplemental assessments provides a way to address SDM limitations, especially for range‐expanding or ‐shifting species. SDM products for conservation applications have been critiqued for lacking transparency and interpretation support, and ineffectively communicating uncertainty. The iSDMdb addresses these issues and enhances the practical relevance and utility of SDMs for stakeholders, rangers and decision‐makers. We exemplify how to build an iSDMdb using open‐source tools, and how to make diverse, complex assessments more accessible for end‐users.
... To ensure the persistence and growth of New Zealand sea lion breeding areas on the New Zealand mainland, there will need to be public education about sea lions to reduce harassment, pup deaths from dog attacks, hit and run by cars, and shootings. There will also need to be land-use management and protection of shore areas where sea lions currently and potentially could breed if sea lion breeding areas are to increase and they are to expand back into their original home range of the entire New Zealand coast (MacMillan et al., 2016). ...
Article
• Understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that occur during range shift or (re‐)colonization is of critical importance for species whose ranges are changing due to human‐induced climate change or species such as New Zealand sea lions where their established colonies are significantly declining due to human impacts. • The mechanisms underlying colonization are poorly understood. Observations are required to determine the processes that change individual's behaviour associated with colonization, but such observations are rare. • Here, the establishment of a new breeding colony of New Zealand sea lions, Phocarctos hookeri, as they recolonized mainland New Zealand, an area from which they had been absent for ~200 years was investigated. • There are differences in breeding location behaviour and population connectivity between established and establishing colonies of New Zealand sea lions. The recolonizing population is more dispersed with breeding locations that change annually and have more connections with other populations compared with established colonies and populations. • The establishment of a new colony and the greater numbers of resightings between colonies means that for species' management, considerably more public education, habitat management, and protection is needed to ensure the safe return of New Zealand sea lions back on to mainland New Zealand.
... In New Zealand, GIS tools and techniques have been widely applied to solve environmental problems [77][78][79][80][81], but the tools and approaches that link design and GIS have not been readily available [82] and there is a limited number of applications that follow the geodesign framework to solve problems in landscape planning, especially at the farm scale. For instance, only one previous paper was identified that applied geodesign to plan a route for visitor access across a farm in NZ [83]. ...
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Landscape modification associated with agricultural intensification has brought considerable challenges for the sustainable development of New Zealand hill country farms. Addressing these challenges requires an appropriate approach to support farmers and design a better landscape that can have beneficial environmental outcomes whilst ensuring continued profitability. In this paper we suggest using geodesign and theories drawn from landscape ecology to plan and design multifunctional landscapes that offer improved sustainability for hill country farm systems and landscapes in New Zealand. This approach suggests that better decisions can be made by considering the major landscape services that are, and could be, provided by the landscapes in which these farm systems are situated. These important services should be included in future landscape design of hill country by creating a patterning and configuration of landscape features that actively maintains or restores important landscape functioning. This will help to improve landscape health and promote landscape resilience in the face of climate change. Through illustrating the potential of this type of approach for wider adoption we believe that the proposed conceptual framework offers a valuable reference for sustainable farm system design that can make an important contribution to advancing environmental management globally as well as in New Zealand.
... Empirical models in land suitability analysis mainly refer to expert-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, while mathematical models estimate land suitability by quantifying the linkages between one dependent variable and multiple independent variables that reflect biophysical and sociocultural features of the landscape. Multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) as an expert-based MCDA method has been used to determine the suitability of the landscape for a collection of various utilities such as urbanization, landfill (Sakieh et al. 2015;Gorsevski et al. 2012;Chang et al. 2008), agriculture (Ceballos-Silva and López-Blanco 2003;Walke et al. 2012;Mendas and Delali 2012), aquaculture (Hossain and Das 2010;Hossain et al. 2009;MacMillan et al. 2016) and renewable energy (Janke 2010). There is relatively less number of studies in the literature that employ MCE for tourism suitability mapping in an integrated manner, especially for optimal site selection. ...
Article
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A wide variety of mathematical and empirical models have been implemented as practical tools for land-use planning, and multilayer perceptron (MLP), logistic regression or LR (mathematical model) and multi-criteria evaluation or MCE (empirical) are among widely applied models. One of the main drawbacks of the mathematical models is that they require dependent data and the process of data collection can be so costly and time-consuming for large areas. As such, we investigated the possibility of providing dependent data set through the MCE method for tourism planning in Golestan Province, Iran. The accuracy of MCE-based algorithms was investigated using ground truth data collected during field observations from early spring up to late summer 2016. The MCE-based and ground-based outputs were investigated and compared for spatial accuracy and connectivity and compactness of the results using receiving operator characteristic (ROC) and landscape configuration metrics. ROC statistics were scored at 0.886, 0.834, 0.82 and 0.814 for ground-based MLP, ground-based LR, MCE-based MLP and MCE-based LR, respectively, showing no meaningful differences between MCE-based and ground-based methods in terms of spatial accuracy. Landscape metrics also indicated that MCE-based methods have resulted in a more connected and manageable pattern for tourism planning. According to the results of this study, MCE can serve as a preliminary approach to define field sampling spots or even as an alternative to field observation efforts in case of limited time and financial resources.
... MCA is a decision-making tool to solve problems using large amounts of complex data in a structured way (Koschke et al., 2012). Combined with GIS, MCA synthesises spatial and non-spatial as well as qualitative and quantitative data, representing criteria known to affect land suitability, to produce a suitability map of the specific area (Walke et al., 2012;MacMillan et al., 2016). It allows assessment of multiple, often conflicting criteria and is suited to complex natural resource management decisions because it incorporates ecological, biophysical and social components, and enables stakeholders' judgement to be introduced into the decision system (Mendoza & Martins, 2006). ...
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... Although a rare event, recolonization on the mainland is possible (Lalas & Bradshaw, 2003); if suitable sites can be identified, proactive management and education can be used to facilitate the recolonization process. Recently, analyses on species' habitat preferences and GISbased multi-criteria analysis were used to try identifying such sites (MacMillan, Moore, Augé, & Chilvers, 2016), but multi-state SDMs could provide more in-depth modelling and further support conservation actions (Fourcade, Engler, Besnard, Rödder, & Secondi, 2013), especially if the species' distinct shifts in terrestrial habitat preferences are accounted for when modelling habitat suitability. ...
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The primary objective of the population management plan for New Zealand sea lions, Phocarctos hookeri, is to move the species from its current conservation status of ‘Threatened’ to ‘Non-threatened’. The mechanism by which this will occur is through the establishment of new breeding colonies away from the only existing colonies at Auckland Islands and Campbell Island. Otago, on the southeast coast of the South Island of New Zealand, is one of only three locations where breeding has been recorded away from these islands in modern times. We found only one female at the initiation of our surveys here in 1991, an individual that had been tagged as a pup at Auckland Islands. This female has remained resident at Otago and is now breeding. Her first live birth, in the 1993/94 breeding season, represented the first record of a P. hookeri pup on the New Zealand mainland since the elimination of the species here by humans c. 150 years ago. Up to and including the 2000/01 breeding season she had produced six pups. Her surviving pups have remained at Otago and her eldest two daughters have started breeding, producing a further three pups. From this total of nine live births, two pups have died. Although 6 - 8 other migrant females have been recorded, to our knowledge none have bred at Otago. We conclude that the initiation of breeding by P. hookeri at Otago has been a serendipitous event attributable to atypical behaviour by a single female.
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The efficiency of spatial conservation measures for threatened species depends mostly on the proportion of time that animals spend within the protected areas. We illustrate this with our case study of the population of recolonizing female New Zealand (NZ) sea lions Phocarctos hookeri (n = 13) at Otago Peninsula, South Island, NZ. Human interactions at sea, where sea lions forage, are of concern, and spatial management measures have been proposed. Understanding the level of foraging site fidelity of these animals was consequently essential. We used satellite tracking of individuals across three autumns to assess foraging site fidelity and year-round on-land sighting surveys over 2.5 years as proxy to foraging areas outside autumns. Each individual exhibited a high level of autumnal site fidelity for foraging areas between years (64% overlap between 65% Kernel ranges with a 3-km buffer) while using beaches along a 12-km stretch of coastline during 96 ± 8% (range 79–100%) of their time onshore. As a proxy for foraging areas outside autumns, these animals exhibited a high level of site fidelity to this stretch of coastline throughout the year. Breeding females were sighted there during 86% of months (range = 73–100%) and non-breeding females during 69% of months (range = 58–90%). The site fidelity of these animals indicates that protected areas would be efficient in this case and highlights the importance of studying foraging site fidelity in mobile predators to design efficient conservation measures.
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Campbell Island is the only major breeding site for the New Zealand sea lion Phocarctos hookeri outside the Auckland Islands. Minimum pup production was estimated at 78 for the 1997/98 breeding season, compared with the only previous estimate of 122 from 1991/92, and represents less than 5% of the total pup production for the species. Sea lions at Campbell Island have a widespread distribution, clumped at the coast and scattered inland. Local concentrations of sea lions were seen at Davis Point, Sandy Bay and both Northeast and Southeast Harbours. Isolated individuals were found up to 1.5 km inland and at altitudes up to 250 m. Breeding females at Campbell Island are generally solitary and give birth inland, in contrast to the highly gregarious colonies seen on the coasts of the Auckland Islands. In some years a small breeding colony forms on the coast, often at Davis point, but its location is variable. Overall, the present distribution and abundance of sea lions on Campbell Island does not appear to differ considerably from previous reports stretching back as far as the 1950s. Line transects proved inappropriate for estimating sea lion density, due to a low encounter rate and poor visibility in dense vegetation. Future work could include surveys for pups, which aggregate on the coast during March or April.
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The efficiency of spatial conservation measures for threatened species depends mostly on the proportion of time that animals spend within the protected areas. We illustrate this with our case study of the population of recolonizing female New Zealand (NZ) sea lions Phocarctos hookeri (n = 13) at Otago Peninsula, South Island, NZ. Human interactions at sea, where sea lions forage, are of concern, and spatial management measures have been proposed. Understanding the level of foraging site fidelity of these animals was consequently essential. We used satellite tracking of individuals across three autumns to assess foraging site fidelity and year-round on-land sighting surveys over 2.5 years as proxy to forag-ing areas outside autumns. Each individual exhibited a high level of autumnal site fidelity for foraging areas between years (64% overlap between 65% Kernel ranges with a 3-km buffer) while using beaches along a 12-km stretch of coastline during 96 8% (range 79–100%) of their time onshore. As a proxy for foraging areas outside autumns, these animals exhibited a high level of site fidelity to this stretch of coastline throughout the year. Breeding females were sighted there during 86% of months (range = 73–100%) and non-breeding females during 69% of months (range = 58–90%). The site fidelity of these animals indicates that protected areas would be efficient in this case and highlights the importance of studying foraging site fidelity in mobile predators to design efficient conservation measures.
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This paper describes both the modern and the pristine distribution, breeding range, and relative abundance of the New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri). Archaeological data and historical references were used to determine the pristine status of the sea lion, and its present status was determined from recent scientific studies and observations. The sea lion had a substantially more widespread distribution before the arrival of humans in New Zealand than it does today. The species used to range along the whole length of the coast, from the north of the North Island through to Stewart Island and the subantarctic islands. Although we have no direct estimate of pristine abundance, the present population size is clearly reduced. Subsistence and commercial killing of sea lions is the most likely cause of historical changes in distribution and abundance. Their pristine breeding range extended at least as far north as Nelson and may have extended to the North Island. The present breeding range is restricted to the Auckland Islands and Campbell Island. Within the last 10 years a few individuals have started to breed on mainland New Zealand and Stewart Island, which may reflect a slow recolonisation of earlier breeding grounds. Pup production at Sandy Bay, Enderby Island, has been stable for at least the last three decades, and no major changes in pup production at Dundas Island and Figure of Eight Island are apparent.
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We developed three black bear ( Ursus americanus) habitat models in the context of a geographic information system to identify linkage areas across a major transportation corridor. One model was based on empirical habitat data, and the other two (opinion- and literature-based) were based on expert information developed in a multicriteria decision-making process. We validated the performance of the models with an independent data set. Four classes of highway linkage zones were generated. Class 3 linkages were the most accurate for mapping cross-highway movement. Our tests showed that the model based on expert literature most closely approximated the empirical model, both in the results of statistical tests and the description of the class 3 linkages. In addition, the expert literature–based model was consistently more similar to the empirical model than either of two seasonal, expert opinion–based models. Among the expert models, the literature-based model had the strongest correlation with the empirical model. Expert-opinion models were less in agreement with the empirical model. The poor performance of the expert-opinion model may be explained by an overestimation of the importance of riparian habitat by experts compared with the literature. A small portion of the empirical data to test the models was from the pre-berry season and may have affected how well the model predicted linkage areas. Our empirical and expert models represent useful tools for resource and transportation planners charged with determining the location of mitigation passages for wildlife when baseline information is lacking and when time constraints do not allow for data collection before construction.
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This paper describes a method of land-allocation that can be used byplanners and other land managers in the face of market failure. The method integrates theland-allocation approach used in geographic information systems with that used in a generalizedassignment problem. Suitability scores, instead of market prices, are used in assigning competingland uses to individual parcels (pixels) of land. The method is illustrated using a hypotheticalexample involving three competing land uses within a region.
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GIS data processing and spatial analysis, together with modern decision analysis techniques, were used in this study to improve habitat suitability evaluation over large areas. Both empirical evaluation models and models based on expert knowledge can be applied in this approach. The habitat requirements of species were described as map layers within GIS so that each map layer represented one criterion. GIS was used as the platform in managing, combining and displaying the criterion data and also as a tool for producing new data, especially by utilising spatial analysis functions.Criterion standardisation, weighting and combining were accomplished by means of multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) methods, the theoretical background being based on the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT). By using continuous priority and sub-priority functions in the evaluation, no classification of continuous attributes was needed and also non-linear relationships between habitat suitability and the attributes could be considered. Sensitivity analysis was applied to consider the temporal factor in the analysis and to find out the effect of different criteria weights on the spatial pattern of the suitability index. Changing the weights of permanent and time-changeable habitat factors shifted the location of optimal habitats for the species. In the long run, permanent factors such as soil properties define the habitat potential, which is important to take into consideration; e.g. in forest management planning and species conservation. The method is illustrated by a case study in which habitat suitability maps were produced for an old-forest polypore, Skeletocutis odora.
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The information on biodiversity issues that planners have at disposal often offers a very limited support, due to the lack of informative data and suitable planning support systems (PSS). This paper aims at improving the treatment of biodiversity assets in spatial planning by proposing an approach to map and assess biodiversity assets, and by implementing it into a PSS, characterised by ease of use and usefulness. Biodiversity assets were divided into six themes, two of which refer to species (animal and plant species), and the remaining four to ecosystems (forest, agriculture, aquatic and alpine ecosystems). For each theme, the relevant baseline data were collected and processed, a multicriteria evaluation scheme was set up, and value judgments provided by experts of research institutes and public administration technical offices were sought. The themes were then integrated into a composite map. Factual and value-based information generated during the analysis was organised into a PSS, represented by a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform with a customised querying interface, which allows users to access to thematic layers in a hierarchical fashion, as well as to retrieve relevant background information and reports. The PSS was tested for a specific planning task: the screening stage of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The study area is located in Trentino, an alpine region in northern Italy.
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This paper focuses on the integration of GIS and an extension of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) using quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) procedure. AHP_OWA is a multicriteria combination operator. The nature of the AHP_OWA depends on some parameters, which are expressed by means of fuzzy linguistic quantifiers. By changing the linguistic terms, AHP_OWA can generate a wide range of decision strategies. We propose a GIS-multicriteria evaluation (MCE) system through implementation of AHP_OWA within ArcGIS, capable of integrating linguistic labels within conventional AHP for spatial decision making. We suggest that the proposed GIS-MCE would simplify the definition of decision strategies and facilitate an exploratory analysis of multiple criteria by incorporating qualitative information within the analysis.
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Separate artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed from data in two geographical regions and years apart for a marsh-nesting bird, the red-winged blackbird Agelaius phoeniceus. Each model was independently tested on the spatially and temporally distinct data from the other region to determine how generalizable it was. The first model was developed to predict occurrence of nests in two wetlands on Lake Erie, Ohio in 1995 and 1996. The second model was developed to predict breeding success in two marshes in Connecticut, USA in 1969 and 1970. Independent variables were vegetation durability, stem density, stem/nest height, distance to open water, distance to edge, and water depth. With input variable relevances, sensitivity analyses and neural interpretation diagrams we were able to understand how the different models predicted nest occurrence and breeding success and compare their differences and similarities. Both models also predicted increasing nest occurrence/breeding success with increasing water depth under the nest and increasing distance to edge. However, relationships for prediction differed in the models. Generalizability of the models was poor except when the marshes had similar values of important variables in the model. ANN models performed better than generalized linear models (GLM) on marshes with similar structures. Generalizability of the models did not differ in nest occurrence and breeding success data. Extensive testing also showed that the GLMs were not necessarily more generalizable than ANNs, suggesting that ANN models make good definitions of a study system but are too specific to generalize well to other ecologically complex systems unless input variable distributions are very similar.
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Renowned for their ability to deal with spatial problems, commercial GIS software packages can play crucial role in spatial decision making processes, provided that they have tools that allow both private and public organizations to manage and analyze spatial referenced data. In particular, land-use suitability analysis applications are valuable, where the use of conflicting objectives and decision maker’s (DMs) preferences is common practice. In order to expand GIS abilities to the consideration of decision criteria, OR/MS researchers during the last two decades strongly pronounce in favor of developing synergies between GIS and multicriteria decision making tools. After a short but comprehensive guide to the processes involved in multicriteria suitability analysis applications, the main objective of the paper is to present an add-in to ESRI’s ArcGIS environment that supports hierarchical formations of the decision problem, and a variety of procedures for decision criteria weight estimations. The prototype allows suitability index estimations for ordering alternatives using as decision rule the Weighted Linear Combination. Finally, the add-in is used in a real case study, in which we propose a procedure for finding out suitable candidate locations to implement natural systems for the wastewater treatment in the Evros Prefecture-Northeast Greece.
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